HOUSE CALLS

This is going to an interesting summer in Edmonton. No matter how well everyone plays during the postseason, there are holes to be filled, cap issues to be solved, and an expansion draft that could take a good player from the roster. Free-agent signings and the draft, and of course making the playoffs will shorten the timeline to get things done. What will the McDavid contract look like? Draisaitl’s deal? Today, I want to look at the RFA and UFA deals still on the books, so we can understand that element of summer.

Photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved

NHL FORWARDS (RFA DIVISION)

  1. C Leon Draisaitl $3.4M (including bonuses) $925,000 (base salary) 82gp, 29-48-77, 2.05 5×5/60 5×5 scoring. Huge season by the 2014 first-round pick and the Oilers are going to pay him beginning in the fall. I have seen Aleksandr Barkov’s contract being mentioned, it’s six years times $5.9M. Edmonton may decide to slow play with a bridge deal, not sure that’s going to be any kind of bargain. The club will be signing Leon without knowing if he can push an entire line and that means there is risk going long in my opinion.
  2. R Zack Kassian $1.5M 79gp, 7-17-24, 1.74/60 5×5 scoring. It was assured before the playoffs, but Kassian is part of this team moving forward, just as sure as McDavid, Draisaitl and Nurse. Cal Clutterbuck’s four-year, $2.75M deal is too high imo, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Kassian’s deal approached that number (depending on length).
  3. C Jujhar Khaira $875,000 10gp, 1-0-1, 0.67/60 5×5 scoring. Big forward is obvious replacement for Matt Hendricks (and that saves a million on the cap) but my guess is he will be an expansion target. For LV, acquiring forwards who can grow into a role may make more sense than picking a veteran who is a year away from free agency (ala Mark Letestu). Khaira’s contract basically writes itself and he won’t cost much more than he did this year. He will be eligible for waivers in 2017-18.
  4. R Iiro Pakarinen $725,000 with arb. rights 14gp, 2-2-4, 2.04/60 5×5 scoring. I’m not sure Peter Chiarelli will bring back all of the RW’s who are vying for those final roster spots, but Pakarinen has the confidence of the coach and that may be enough. He won’t cost a lot and may win a contract over Tyler Pitlick.
  5. LC Anton Lander $987,500 22gp, 1-3-4, 1.77/60 5×5 scoring. I think he can play in the NHL, but it’s also true this league gets faster by the hour. It’s too bad, Lander’s skill set is a nice match for Edmonton’s needs.

Photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved

NHL FORWARDS (UFA DIVISION)

  1. LC David Desharnais $3.5M 18gp, 2-2-4 1.30/60 5×5 scoring. Added at the deadline, Desharnais was probably a rental all the way. His performance so far suggests he hasn’t forced Peter Chiarelli’s hand in terms of contract.
  2. L Matt Hendricks $1.85M 42gp, 4-3-7 1.11/60 5×5 scoring. Noble warrior is reaching the end of his time with the Oilers, it will be interesting to see if another team gives him a shot in the fall. Hasn’t played any of the first three playoff games.
  3. R Tyler Pitlick $725,000 31gp, 8-3-11 2.22/60 5×5 scoring. He posted a strong first half but also ran some good shooting luck. He has reached free agency and a team like the Golden Knights may be interested (scoring is going to be scarce in the expansion draft) because of those eight goals. I suspect there is some interest in having him back, but money’s too tight to mention in his general area of the roster.

NHL DEFENSEMEN (RFA DIVISION)

  1. LD Griffin Reinhart $3,213,333 (including bonuses) $863,333 (base salary) has not played in the NHL this season. Entered training camp with a good chance at a job, and played so well the Oilers signed Kris Russell. Spent the entire season in the AHL and is now up as the No. 8 defender. Open question about where he lands, as Vegas has a GM who likes big WHL defenders. If he’s back this fall, it will be without the bonus on his contract and he will be applying for the 7D job (I expect).

NHL DEFENSEMEN (UFA DIVISION)

  1. LD Kris Russell $3.1M 68gp, 1-12-13. I expect his stock has risen since last summer (he was a late signing, October 7) and will be looking for a long-term deal. Edmonton may be interested, but it also won’t take long for the club to get priced out of the market. We might see the Oilers do the same thing this summer with 2RHD: Wait until the market cools and see how September money spends.
  2. RD Eric Gryba $950,000 40gp,2-4-6. I can see him returning, but there are things that will need to break right. If Vegas grabs Reinhart in the expansion draft, Edmonton’s interest may increase. If Gryba can’t find a better offer than the one he signed this year,we could see him here for a third season.

Photo by Mark Williams, all rights reserved

MINOR LEAGUERS (A QUICK GLANCE)

  1. C Henrik Samuelsson, RFA. Oilers traded for him and didn’t seem to like his preparedness/conditioning. That’s kind of a big deal in the organization, so I’m going to say it is unlikely we see him in the fall. Unless he’s lifts tractors all summer.
  2. L Joey Laleggia, RFA. I think he forced their hand here, the guy is superfreak LW with a goal every two games since the turn of the year. I am not saying he is an NHL lock, but he has an NHL chance. I can count a dozen signed guys who you can’t say that about right now.
  3. LC Bogdan Yakimov, RFA. I can see him back this fall, but what if he bolts again? Yakimov is an intriguing talent, but he didn’t exactly set the Russian woods on fire. I think they pass.
  4. LD Dillon Simpson, RFA. He has arb rights, but should be an easy signing. Simpson may be one of the few veterans in Bakersfield this fall and I do think he gets a new deal.
  5. LC Jere Sallinen, RFA. He simply didn’t bring enough offense.
  6. G Jonas Gustavsson, UFA. Unfair to judge him in the very small sample size of his NHL games, but that’s the gig.
  7. RC Zach Pochiro, RFA. Interesting because he is a RHC, but I think the Oilers will prefer to have an extra slot on the 50-man. He showed well in his time with the organization.
  8. G Eetu Laurikainen, RFA. Haven’t heard much about him much of the winter. Don’t believe he will be back.
  9. LD David Musil, RFA. He was loaned to the Arizona organization and one expects his agent has been shopping him to all 30 teams since. He has value and could find a good landing spot, but his skills are duplicated many times in the Oilers organization.
  10. R Justin Fontaine, UFA. The Oilers may try to keep him for another year in the Taylor Beck role. He’s a pretty solid insurance policy against struggling and injured wingers. I’ll guess the Oilers decide to pass on signing him this summer.
  11. LD Jordan Oesterle, UFA. I think he’s too good to sign a two-way deal, and the Oilers have too many lefties rated above him. It’s crappy, but he’s a guy you wish the best of luck and cheer for if he makes it.
  12. LD Mark Fraser, UFA. Like Fontaine, I think Fraser could return as a mentor/insurance. I’ll guess he ends up elsewhere for our purposes today.

PROJECTED 50-MAN

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117 Responses to "HOUSE CALLS"

  1. theDjdj says:

    LT how do you rate the chances of one of the graduating Dmen (Jones, Bear, Paigin oh my) setting fire to the rain and making the team out of camp? Especially if we don’t land 2RHD and lose Russell and or Reinhart?

  2. 36 percent body fat says:

    spencer foo? darren raddysh? svoboda?

  3. MacT's Neglected Helmet says:

    Leon’s deal will be fascinating. Credit where due. He’s earned it. On the other hand, you can’t open the vault for every guy who has a career year playing with 97 or else you’ll be opening the vault for every guy who plays with 97.

  4. MacT's Neglected Helmet says:

    theDjdj,

    Seems very unlikely that any of them will pull a Matt Benning. Don’t count on it. Don’t plan for it. Hell, I’d be happy if Matt Benning can pull a Matt Benning next year (i.e. not suffer a sophomore slump).

  5. wheatnoil says:

    I would bring back Oesterle, but I doubt the Oilers do. Though, the two things Oesterle has going for him is experience playing the right side at the NHL level & the fact the coach ran the hell out of him one year ago, playing him more minutes than Nurse, Reinhart, Clendening and Pardy.

  6. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ok LT, agree that Russell is probably headed down the QE2 for more than we should want to pay.

    What is your preference among Panthers RHD. They need to protect Yandle and Ekblad. Who of Demers, Pushkin and Petrovic do they expose and what is the price we pay to Vegas for them to get one?

  7. wheatnoil says:

    MacT’s Neglected Helmet:
    theDjdj,

    Seems very unlikely that any of them will pull a Matt Benning. Don’t count on it. Don’t plan for it. Hell, I’d be happy if Matt Benning can pull a Matt Benning next year (i.e. not suffer a sophomore slump).

    Benning was also an older prospect coming out of the NCAA. He was 22, I believe. Both Jones and Bear will barely be 20. Paigin might have the best chance to be honest.

  8. Richard S.S. says:

    At no time in this series has San Jose outplayed the Oilers. They just aren’t good enough to beat the Oilers unless the Oilers are helping them do it. Every minutes they play, the Oilers are gaining experience. If they keep playing like they have thus far, this Series could be over in five games.

  9. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Richard S.S.,

    -Great post LT! Rich – Did you watch the first game? Yes it can be attributed to scoring effects and the Oil saying: “H$ly F$ck, we are better than these guys”: but SJ dominated that 1st game.

    – And I’m the bus-driver for the Oil to the Cup…

  10. Richard S.S. says:

    Anton Lander doesn’t do enough things well to stay on this Team. He’s also too slow to play on McDavid’s Team. David Desharnais did what they Oilers needed him to. Unfortunately size and speed are his downfall. Matt Hendricks might make a good coach, but he’s just not fast enough to stay.

  11. Stud Muffin says:

    I think the Oilers would be smart to tender Yakimov, because if he turns into something while in Russia than you have him and if not, no harm done.

  12. Richard S.S. says:

    Drafting in the latter third of a round limits the Player talent impact. You need to be skillful and lucky to be good. Signing College/Overage players will increase talent impact. There are not enough of them to go around. As a result, more players may be kept that we think will go. Conversely more players might go than we think will stay.

  13. Lowetide says:

    theDjdj:
    LT how do you rate the chances of one of the graduating Dmen (Jones, Bear, Paigin oh my) setting fire to the rain and making the team out of camp? Especially if we don’t land 2RHD and lose Russell and or Reinhart?

    I think the Oilers will probably look to keep them all on the farm for the year. Jones would be a candidate to surprise because of his speed, but the Oilers will want to give their D a good 40+ games in the AHL. Which is good, a sign of a maturing organization.

  14. Lowetide says:

    36 percent body fat:
    spencer foo?darren raddysh? svoboda?

    I wrote today about men who are under contract to the Oilers. Interesting names, though.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Ok LT, agree that Russell is probably headed down the QE2 for more than we should want to pay.

    What is your preference among Panthers RHD. They need to protect Yandle and Ekblad.Who of Demers, Pushkin and Petrovic do they expose and what is the price we pay to Vegas for them to get one?

    I like Demers a lot, and also like Pysyk.

  16. Richard S.S. says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Shots were equal in the 1st period, more chaos than skill. The Oilers still scored two.
    San Jose outshot the Oilers 28-7 in the next two periods, dominating possession and man advantage time. Despite this, it took a bad defensive miscue to tie the game up.
    Overtime is whoever blinks first – another bad defensive miscue.
    The Oilers beat themselves, San Jose didn’t.

  17. Patrick C says:

    Re: Yakimov — Neftekhimik have re-signed him to a one-year extension, which reduces the chances of him coming back this fall. It’s not impossible, mind you, as I have no information on out-clauses in the new deal and things like that, but it looks like he’s set to stay in Nizhnekamsk at least for the near future.

  18. Richard S.S. says:

    McDavid $12.0, anything less is a huge gain.
    Draisaitl $8.0, anything less is also a huge gain.
    Lucic $6.0, six more years.
    Klefbom $4.167, a huge bargain.
    Larson $4.166, another huge bargain.
    Sekera $5.5, four more years.
    Talbot $4.167, just two more years.
    Subtatal $44.0 for just 7 Players and just $28 – $32.0 to sign 15 more.
    That time is coming very soon. Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins may no longer have a home here.

  19. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Man o man

    The Capitals are in a world of danger right now I tells ya.

    There seems to be zero urgency on that team and a level of cockiness that is completely undeserved for how often they’ve fizzled out in the post season over the last decade.

    They need to get their shit together ASAP or it could be a mammoth upset in the east.

  20. Wolfie says:

    The Caps are playing with the weight of the world on their shoulders. All the pressure is on them to perform. Leafs get to come in with zero expectations. It’s house money for them.

  21. Bad Seed says:

    Wolfie:
    The Caps are playing with the weight of the world on their shoulders.All the pressure is on them to perform.Leafs get to come in with zero expectations.It’s house money for them.

    I don’t know about that – there’s always pressure when you’re Canada’s team!

  22. JDI Хоккей says:

    I’m cheering for all the Canadian teams – Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa and Edmonton.

  23. sliderule says:

    If the condors hire a decent coach Bear will be running the power play right out of camp.

    If he can show that he can play a modicum of defence he should be with oilers running their power play by mid season.

  24. Professor Q says:

    The Caps are just fine. It’s Chicago who should worry.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Patrick C:
    Re: Yakimov — Neftekhimik have re-signed him to a one-year extension, which reduces the chances of him coming back this fall.It’s not impossible, mind you, as I have no information on out-clauses in the new deal and things like that, but it looks like he’s set to stay in Nizhnekamsk at least for the near future.

    Thanks, Patrick! That means they can let him go (and off the 50-man) if they choose, or keep him on if they feel he still has a future.

  26. Lowetide says:

    JDI Хоккей:
    I’m cheering for all the Canadian teams – Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa and Edmonton.

    Well this is a great post!

  27. Centre of attention says:

    Professor Q:
    The Caps are just fine. It’s Chicago who should worry.

    They look seriously rattled when TO’s kids get running around in the offensive zone.

  28. Younger Oil says:

    If they could use Scheifele’s contract as a comparable for Draisaitl, that would be incredible.

  29. Steve4 says:

    What about Paul Postma in WPG? He is 28, played his first full year (I assume as a bottom pair), and posted similar points/game to Kris Russell. His salary was $877,500, and would be a significantly less costly alternative to Kris.

    Does anyone have any thoughts, pro or con?

  30. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Capitals are done

    Book it

  31. LMHF#1 says:

    Washington in full-on choke mode. Wow. If they manage to lose, does anyone think the GM has the guts to switch out a bunch of parts?

  32. Professor Q says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Capitals are done

    Book it

    I’ll concede. Damn. Almost all of the kids.

    My pool is screwed. I had CHI meeting WAS in the Finals.

  33. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    LMHF#1,

    You rip the entire thing apart IMO because wow

    A full 2 minute 5v3, chance to go up 4-1 and the first unit stayed out for the full PP, zero urgency, 2 shots and five missed nets

    Shattenkirk is slowly playing himself out of a payday

  34. npanciroli says:

    Never change Washington.

  35. Professor Q says:

    LMHF#1:
    Washington in full-on choke mode. Wow. If they manage to lose, does anyone think the GM has the guts to switch out a bunch of parts?

    They’re in the process of changing players anyway. Young taking over for the older ones. It’d be a natural progression to speed it along. Rentals might not return. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Oshie and Williams.

  36. theDjdj says:

    https://streamable.com/5ff4y Karlsson with one of the best outlet passes I’ve ever witnessed. Truly elite.

  37. LMHF#1 says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    LMHF#1,

    You rip the entire thing apart IMO because wow

    A full 2 minute 5v3, chance to go up 4-1 and the first unit stayed out for the full PP, zero urgency, 2 shots and five missed nets

    Shattenkirk is slowly playing himself out of a payday

    Rarely does a GM manage to recognize he doesn’t have winners and switch out players in time.

    So many Blues, Sens, Sharks (just to think of a few) and now Caps teams that just didn’t have ‘it’.

  38. Lloyd B. says:

    Professor Q: I’ll concede. Damn. Almost all of the kids.

    My pool is screwed. I had CHI meeting WAS in the Finals.

    Easy prof. Its only 2-1. Lots of hockey to play yet.

    Chicago could also make things interesting if they wake up tonight.

  39. LMHF#1 says:

    Professor Q: They’re in the process of changing players anyway. Young taking over for the older ones. It’d be a natural progression to speed it along. Rentals might not return. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Oshie and Williams.

    What about Backstrom, Ovechkin, Alzner, etc?

    Need to change the core while retaining a high talent level.

  40. Professor Q says:

    Although how crazy would it be if the two Kid Teams made it to the Finals against each other?

  41. Professor Q says:

    LMHF#1: What about Backstrom, Ovechkin, Alzner, etc?

    Need to change the core while retaining a high talent level.

    Now that would be a real shake up! A league changer.

  42. theDjdj says:

    theDjdj:
    https://streamable.com/5ff4y Karlsson with one of the best outlet passes I’ve ever witnessed. Truly elite.

    He just set up the OT winner with another amazing pass

  43. Woogie63 says:

    Watch for Henderson to retire and join the Oil King coaching staff

  44. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    From the previous thread:

    Georges,

    I have no doubt any player will score more with CMD than without. It’s just curious to me that we’re looking to move players (who have worked extremely well with CMD in the stretch and helped him run away with the scoring title) off of CMD’s line based on what we’ve seen so far.

    Maroon isn’t playing his normal game and not doing the things we expect so we infer that he’s hurt.

    McDavid, the Art Ross winner has 2 points in 3 games. None of them 5v5.

    We can talk about tight checking but the Oilers scored 5.93 GF/60 over 50 minutes when McDavid was on the ice against Vlasic and Braun in the regular season and so far 0 GF/60 in about 32 minutes against that pair so far in the playoffs.

    No production, Maroon looks hurt, 7 game series.

    Not a spot that I would pick to be patient.

  45. Younger Oil says:

    Just as planned, Flames and Ducks beating the everloving crap out of eachother.

    I like the Oilers chances against both of them if they stick to playing actual hockey.

  46. Centre of attention says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Can I interest you in a Slepyshev-McDavid-Puljujarvi line? Slepyshev is a natural LW, fwiw.

    Two right shots in on the forcheck, either one able to drift into that one timer position when McDavid beats somebody down low and feeds it in front? Yes please.

    Leaves you with:

    Slepy-McDavid-Pulju
    Lucic-Nuge-Eberle
    Maroon-Draisaitl-Kassian
    Desharnais-Letestu-Caggulia

    Hmmmmm. Not bad.

  47. Ice Sage says:

    theDjdj:
    https://streamable.com/5ff4y Karlsson with one of the best outlet passes I’ve ever witnessed. Truly elite.

    Karlsson is the 3rd best player in the world.
    Nashville is really dialled in right now. Full credit for their series lead.

  48. theDjdj says:

    Ice Sage: Karlsson is the 3rd best player in the world.
    Nashville is really dialled in right now.Full credit for their series lead.

    I consider Karlsson to be on that higher level that only McDavid and Crosby dine at. Truly exceptional generational dman playing for a team you barely hear much of (though they look impressive in this playoff series).

    Speaking of impressive, Calgary with the strong start against Anaheim. Could be a 7gamer.

  49. Philosophil says:

    CENTRE OF ATTENTION:

    Slepy-McDavid-Pulju
    Lucic-Nuge-Eberle
    Maroon-Draisaitl-Kassian
    Desharnais-Letestu-Caggulia

    Hmmmmm. Not bad.

    3rd line is not a line, its a wall.
    the 4th line needs some HGH.. JJ maybe…

  50. Centre of attention says:

    Philosophil,

    yeah I really like the look of that third line.

    Desharnais had a decent game last night but if he lays another egg I sit him and put JJ in his place as first option. If JJ can’t go for what ever reason Hendricks is the next bet.

  51. Ice Sage says:

    theDjdj: I consider Karlsson to be on that higher level that only McDavid and Crosby dine at. Truly exceptional generational dman playing for a team you barely hear much of (though they look impressive in this playoff series).

    Speaking of impressive, Calgary with the strong start against Anaheim. Could be a 7gamer.

    Yeah, seeing him in the same game as Chara really drives home how much being an elite D has evolved… or gone back to Orr / Coffey fundamentals!

  52. Chachi says:

    JDI Хоккей:
    I’m cheering for all the Canadian teams – Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa and Edmonton.

    🙂

  53. who says:

    Steve4:
    What about Paul Postma in WPG?He is 28, played his first full year (I assume as a bottom pair), and posted similar points/game to Kris Russell.His salary was $877,500, and would be a significantly less costly alternative to Kris.

    Does anyone have any thoughts, pro or con?

    Think he’s a borderline 3rd pairing guy in Winnipeg. Doubt if he’s much of an improvement over Gryba.

  54. russ99 says:

    We’re going to have to spend on a RHD, either Russell or his (hopefully better) replacement.

    In year one of Connor’s deal were not going cheap on pushing up young AHL fill in defensemen, we’re going to be gunning for a cup.

    Also, Oesterle has shown he can push for an NHL job, I’d prefer they bring him back over Simpson, and even Gryba.

    I see the inexpensive August FA addition as a winger and not defenseman, and regardless we’ll need to cut our cap hit with Fayne. Pouliot and possibly a $6M F.

  55. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    From the previous thread:

    Georges,

    I have no doubt any player will score more with CMD than without. It’s just curious to me that we’re looking to move players (who have worked extremely well with CMD in the stretch and helped him run away with the scoring title) off of CMD’s line based on what we’ve seen so far.

    Maroon isn’t playing his normal game and not doing the things we expect so we infer that he’s hurt.

    McDavid, the Art Ross winner has 2 points in 3 games.None of them 5v5.

    We can talk about tight checking but the Oilers scored 5.93 GF/60 over 50 minutes whenMcDavid was on the ice against Vlasic and Braun in the regular season and so far 0 GF/60 in about 32 minutes against that pair so far in the playoffs.

    No production, Maroon looks hurt, 7 game series.

    Not a spot that I would pick to be patient.

    Vlasic and Braun are not 5.93 GA60 players, whatever CMD managed to do in the 50 minutes he played against them. In the playoffs last year, Vlasic’s GA60 was 1.35 in 444 5v5 minutes and Braun’s GA60 was 1.65 in 435 minutes. San Jose hasn’t forgotten how to play their style of playoff hockey.

    Let’s say CMD can still score at around a 3 GF60 pace against these two. This is off of his 3.53 GF60 pace in the regular season but still high, and quite high, in my opinion, when considering he’s matched against Vlasic. Let’s also consider the possibility that his GF60 in the playoffs against Vlasic is 2 instead of 3.

    Goal scoring follows a Poisson distribution, I believe.

    Let’s calculate the probability of observing 0 goals from CMD in a 30 minute stretch (so we have to take half the GF60 rate as our mean for the Poisson).

    GF60 = 3
    P(GF=0) = 0.22

    GF60 = 2
    P(GF=0) = 0.37

    So, the odds are against observing 0 goals in both rate scenarios. If we go with the lower GF60 number, the odds are 2-to-1 against. Not great but also not ridiculous.

    But, as you’ve noted before, goals in small samples are an unreliable measure of performance.

    If we look at how that line is doing on Corsi, we see this:

    Reg. Season 5v5 CF60, CA60, CF%

    CMD 61, 55, 53
    Drai 59, 56, 51
    Rig 62, 54, 53

    Playoffs 5v5 CF60, CA60, CF%

    CMD 66, 52, 56
    Drai 71, 44, 62
    Rig 63, 51, 55

    So they’ve been playing more at the other end in the playoffs than in the regular season. They’re dominating Vlasic even though they’ve been tied or have had the lead for all but one second of the series so far. They just haven’t scored. But they haven’t been scored against either.

    I don’t know about the Maroon looks hurt angle. Otherwise, I’d say we’re winning and Vlasic and the Sharks are just getting lucky. Vlasic also seems to be playing 5 fewer minutes at 5v5 than he played in the Cup run. I’m guessing because they’re saving him for the hard matchup. That forces the Sharks to play Dillon and Schlemko at 5v5 more than they’d like. That, as it turned out yesterday, is also good for us.

    I’ll worry about goals when we don’t get goals that we need. Right now, it’s all about not giving up goals. We’re doing OK. So I’m patient. I think the odds with the CMD line-Vlasic matchup are in our favor. I’d stick with it unless (as TMac decided yesterday) we’re badly outmatched in the bottom 6.

  56. Younger Oil says:

    No idea why Anaheim didn’t challenge that goal, could have easily made the case Bennett shoved the defender into the goalie.

  57. theDjdj says:

    Calgary has a lethal PP. IF they survive the series and we persevere over the Sharks we’ll need to wind the penalties right down.

  58. hags9k says:

    I hope they can find a way to shoehorn both RNH and Ebs onto next year’s team.

    Despite the modest boxcars, Nuge is filling a huge role on this team. Trying to save money sending him out is far riskier in my opinion than trying to replace Eberle’s scoring at a lower cap hit.

    Keep the centers three, and the sasquatches three. That’s my core up front if I’m PC.

    I think Connor pulls a Jordan and takes less money than he could command. He wants to win. As others have put forward, there is an investment in winning that can make him richer in the long term.

  59. Steve4 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    McDavid $12.0, anything less is a huge gain.
    Draisaitl $8.0, anything less is also a huge gain.
    Lucic $6.0, six more years.
    Klefbom $4.167, a huge bargain.
    Larson $4.166, another huge bargain.
    Sekera $5.5, four more years.
    Talbot $4.167, just two more years.
    Subtatal $44.0 for just 7 Players and just $28 – $32.0 to sign 15 more.
    That time is coming very soon. Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins may no longer have a home here.

    Draisaitl at $8 million is crazy. Monahan-$6.3, Gaudreau-$6.75, Mackinnon-$6.3, and Scheifele-$6.125… All of those contracts are new this season. All of these guys (sans Monahan) are clear drivers for their lines. Gaudreau’s points and goals in his final entry-level season were slightly better than Draisaitl’s, and he was the clear driver.

    Anything more than $6.5 million for Draisaitl is unreasonable.

    McDavid is a unique case. He is certainly worth $12+ million, but he will certainly not ask for that. Everything he has done and said to this point indicates that his goal is to be a dominant player on a dominant team without alienating any of his teammates. I think it is reasonable to project him at a number below $10 million. $9.7 million to be precise… (I am smiling right now, but I am dead-serious)

  60. Centre of attention says:

    Ralph Krueger just got name dropped in regards to Canucks coaching job by Friedman. Can’t say its a bad idea, that’s for sure.

  61. JDI Хоккей says:

    Cue another stoopid Hamilton stoopid penalty.

  62. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention:
    Ralph Krueger just got name dropped in regards to Canucks coaching job by Friedman. Can’t say its a bad idea, that’s for sure.

    It is a brilliant idea. If Ralph Krueger knows one thing about coaching hockey its overachieving slightly with a terrible team. He is exactly who I want coaching the Canucks until they get serious about winning which I hope is a long, long time away.

  63. Centre of attention says:

    Theres no way in hell that goal should count

    Flames twitter is just awesome right now

  64. Ice Sage says:

    Chachi: It is a brilliant idea. If Ralph Krueger knows one thing about coaching hockey its overachieving slightly with a terrible team. He is exactly who I want coaching the Canucks until they get serious about winning which I hope is a long, long time away.

    And with his time in Switzerland, he’ll be good mentor for Hirscher (and Baertschi). He also has that sunny west coast vibe that should endear him to the locals for a year and a half.

  65. Chachi says:

    Can’t wait to hear Flambes fans bitch about the reffing in a game where they have had 5 more powerplays than the Ducks.

  66. Chachi says:

    Ice Sage: And with his time in Switzerland, he’ll be good mentor for Hirscher (and Baertschi).He also has that sunny west coast vibe that should endear him to the locals for a year and a half.

    It is the perfect fit.

  67. Centre of attention says:

    Chachi,

    he would be good for the Goldobin’s and the Baertschi’s of the world. Jmo.

  68. JDI Хоккей says:

    Chachi: It is the perfect fit.

    And I’m reasonably certain that Benning doesn’t know what Skype is.

  69. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention:
    Chachi,

    he would be good for the Goldobin’s and the Baetschi’s of the world. Jmo.

    Yes he can teach them the 0 man forecheck that made him “successful” in Switzerland and motivate them in 3 languages. It is a no-brainer to hire him.

  70. Chachi says:

    JDI Хоккей: And I’m reasonably certain that Benning doesn’t know what Skype is.

    LOL

  71. Centre of attention says:

    JDI Хоккей: And I’m reasonably certain that Benning doesn’t know what Skype is.

    or what if he does know and asks to do the interview over skype?

    Ralph: “You know what I’ll just fly to Vancouver and we can do this in person how about that? Something about face to face interaction just makes me more comfortable is all…”

  72. JDI Хоккей says:

    Well fuck a Duck.

  73. Marc says:

    Here come the Flames!

  74. Chachi says:

    JDI Хоккей:
    Well fuck a Duck.

    The league is literally trying to give them this game and they are fucking it up.

  75. Centre of attention says:

    Flames, what are you doing? It was 4 to 1?

  76. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Wow some epic bed-crapping going on tonight

  77. Younger Oil says:

    Flames get 5 Powerplays to the Ducks 0, get three PP goals, and Anaheim still gets the game to OT.

    Hilarious.

  78. JDI Хоккей says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Wow some epic bed-crapping going on tonight

    I politely request that you keep the pictures from my hacked smart TV to yourself.

  79. Chachi says:

    Do the Flames have the option to replace Gulutzan with Jay Leno before overtime starts?

  80. JDI Хоккей says:

    Chachi,

    Only if they promise the position to Conan O’Brien first.

  81. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    JDI Хоккей,

    This gets a full on belly laugh hahaha

    Oh and Chicago completes the collapse. Hawks on the ropes!

  82. JDI Хоккей says:

    Shit ca go

    Shit ca go

    That toddlin’ town.

  83. theDjdj says:

    Hawks to win 4 in a row to advance. Backs flush against the wall now

  84. Chachi says:

    JDI Хоккей:
    Chachi,

    Only if they promise the position to Conan O’Brien first.

    Yes indeed.

  85. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Bahahahahahahahah

  86. Chachi says:

    Oh Flambes you shit show on ice.

  87. Younger Oil says:

    Bad thing is, this is less time for the Flames to beat the Ducks up most likely.

    On the bright side, fuck the Flames.

  88. dangilitis says:

    Bwaaahaha…

    Corey Perry was a +5 tonight in a 5-4 win, that’s pretty impressive. Weren’t the Ducks missing their top 2 D-men tonight, on top of the gratuitous penalty calls in Calgary’s favour?

  89. Pescador says:

    LMHF#1:
    Washington in full-on choke mode. Wow. If they manage to lose, does anyone think the GM has the guts to switch out a bunch of parts?

    You mean the new incoming GM?

  90. Pescador says:

    Chachi:
    Oh Flambes you shit show on ice.

    Assholes going to asshole

  91. GMB3 says:

    Wow Chicago.. wow

  92. Chachi says:

    Pescador: Assholes going to asshole

    Yup, pretty much.

  93. oilersfan says:

    Well with the pseudonym that I am using, on behalf of oilers fans everywhere allow me to say this:

    Suck it Calgary. Suck it long and suck it hard.

    Haha

    My schadenfreude boner is 14 inches right now

    Hope Cameron is enjoying his dose of flames suckiness right now

    The Calgary call in shows will get a million calls tonight but I wouldn’t want to be one of the sponsors with all the wrath of a million heartbroken fans swearing never to use “Pete the Plumber” with his ad on every second commercial . It will be associated with heartbreak and despair of an epic proportion for decades after this near apocalyptic collapse.

  94. Soup Fascist says:

    I feel bad for the Flames. They worked their asses off for 39 minutes taking full command of the game over the Ducks. Monahan is scoring. Bennett with a hard but clean check on Bieksa. Then to have it all undone by a terrible non-call on an obvious high stick ……

    Just kidding.

    Suck it Flames.

  95. JDI Хоккей says:

    I wonder how many chairs Treliving broke tonight?

    Home barn chairs, so I’m going to guess zero.

  96. Chachi says:

    How does a team lose when they get 5 power plays to 0 for the opposition and score on 3 of them?That can’t ever have been done before. Incredible.

  97. oilersfan says:

    Kent Wilson is saying on Twitter that Calgary had 37 scoring chances tonight. I am not on Twitter but could somebody who is challenge him on that? They only had 32 shots on net. In the history of hockey has a team ever had 5 more scoring chances than shots on net?

    Also, for a team that allegedly dominated the ducks, they lost 5-1 when playing 5×5 so there is that narrative including actual facts to be considered when claiming it was a dominating performance but just unlucky…I believe 5×5 shots were around 27-22 for the ducks so again not really that dominant.

    Good PP lately though.

    Elliot was indeed Brutal that second goal may have cost him a decent second contract with the Lames

  98. JDI Хоккей says:

    oilersfan: has a team ever had 5 more scoring chances than shots on net?

    Well if a point-blank two on zero winds up with a missed shot, then that’s a scoring chance but not a SOG.

    Please stop making me defend the fLames.

  99. N64 says:

    oilersfan: Kent Wilson is saying on Twitter that Calgary had 37 scoring chances tonight

    Was he the guy who counted first period hits for the Sharks yesterday? 😉

  100. GMB3 says:

    Through some inside information I have, apparentl, the playoffs are Lindholms last chance to prove he shouldn’t be traded prior to the expansion draft. His source is good too, and I know he’s not lying about his source.

    I had figured keeping Lindholm would be the Ducks number 1 priority heading into the expansion draft, especially at the end of last season. And I honestly still feel this way. Something about that information doesn’t make sense to me, but I know that he wouldn’t be saying this without his source telling him, he was just as surprised as I was.

  101. bassguy says:

    Hi Guys, and happy easter weekend….i had to work and drove my mother-in law back to sask..south of lloyd today..and back..i so loved to see the phlems trash that game….i was just thinking of the key to the oil…driving for hours…its Calm Talbot…just put an L in his first name..what do you guys think??..we are going to win the cup because of calm and he will be the conn smythe winner

  102. bassguy says:

    without a goiler ypu cant do anything?…listentng to gregors guy , the goalie guy he has on,he is so impressed with calms laterell movement..ii have noticed so many shots on Calm when he just gathers the shot in his tummy because he is in the right position..the guy is amazing!…stanley cup because of Calm Talbut

  103. bassguy says:

    there have been many goalies that have made there name in playoffs in the nhl…and many goalies that have suffered in that role as well..we have, i think, the best goalie in ages….just happens to be with connor…lets see

  104. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Calling NYCOIL Calling NYCOIL,

    I am going to Kyoto/Tokyo next week and I am in need of some hot tips. Went on your blog but I could not find a contact email (I am really bad at interneting)

    Please Help!!!

    Also I read your blog and it was so helpful I need more!

  105. flyfish1168 says:

    Went to bed about 930 dejected. Woke up found out the Phlegms lost in O/T has put a smile on my face that can’t be wiped off. 🙂

  106. Pouzar says:

    Morning made.

  107. flyfish1168 says:

    Pouzar:
    Morning made.

    Living in Calgary will be more tolerable today

  108. Pouzar says:

    flyfish1168: Living in Calgary will be more tolerable today

    I bet.

  109. hunter1909 says:

    Soup Fascist: I feel bad for the Flames.

    We all do.

    Meanwhile Flames and Canucks fans can enjoy Zack Kassian’s emergence as a bona fide playoff hockey performer.

    Flames losing at home after being up 4-1 proves they were a mirage team this season.

    Mirage teams so far: Minnesota, Calgary, Chicago, San Jose, Columbus…

  110. Strapping Jocks says:

    While I relish in many of the outcomes of the other series (except Wash-TML), we still have two more wins to get against the Sharks before we declare the oilers more than a playoff dud this year.

    Go Oilers!!

    (Now I am off to Calgary Puck and HFBoards to drink the tears of dejected Flames fans!)

  111. Johnny skid says:

    oilersfan: Hope Cameron is enjoying his dose of flames suckiness right now

    yep.

  112. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: Vlasic and Braun are not 5.93 GA60 players, whatever CMD managed to do in the 50 minutes he played against them. In the playoffs last year, Vlasic’s GA60 was 1.35 in 444 5v5 minutes and Braun’s GA60 was 1.65 in 435 minutes. San Jose hasn’t forgotten how to play their style of playoff hockey.

    Let’s say CMD can still score at around a 3 GF60 pace against these two. This is off of his 3.53 GF60 pace in the regular season but still high, and quite high, in my opinion, when considering he’s matched against Vlasic. Let’s also consider the possibility that his GF60 in the playoffs against Vlasic is 2 instead of 3.

    Goal scoring follows a Poisson distribution, I believe.

    Let’s calculate the probability of observing 0 goals from CMD in a 30 minute stretch (so we have to take half the GF60 rate as our mean for the Poisson).

    GF60 = 3
    P(GF=0) = 0.22

    GF60 = 2
    P(GF=0) = 0.37

    So, the odds are against observing 0 goals in both rate scenarios. If we go with the lower GF60 number, the odds are 2-to-1 against. Not great but also not ridiculous.

    But, as you’ve noted before, goals in small samples are an unreliable measure of performance.

    If we look at how that line is doing on Corsi, we see this:

    Reg. Season 5v5 CF60, CA60, CF%

    CMD 61, 55, 53
    Drai 59, 56, 51
    Rig 62, 54, 53

    Playoffs 5v5 CF60, CA60, CF%

    CMD 66, 52, 56
    Drai 71, 44, 62
    Rig 63, 51, 55

    So they’ve been playing more at the other end in the playoffs than in the regular season. They’re dominating Vlasic even though they’ve been tied or have had the lead for all but one second of the series so far. They just haven’t scored. But they haven’t been scored against either.

    I don’t know about the Maroon looks hurt angle. Otherwise, I’d say we’re winning and Vlasic and the Sharks are just getting lucky. Vlasic also seems to be playing 5 fewer minutes at 5v5 than he played in the Cup run. I’m guessing because they’re saving him for the hard matchup. That forces the Sharks to play Dillon and Schlemko at 5v5 more than they’d like. That, as it turned out yesterday, is also good for us.

    I’ll worry about goals when we don’t get goals that we need. Right now, it’s all about not giving up goals. We’re doing OK. So I’m patient. I think the odds with the CMD line-Vlasic matchup are in our favor. I’d stick with it unless (as TMac decided yesterday) we’re badly outmatched in the bottom 6.

    There is no question that the lack of goals vis a vi the corsi can just be variance.

    That said, the elite scoring players’ GF% outperform their CF% because they are elite scoring players.

    You can look at the CF and think “oh, its fine they’ll score”

    or you can look at the CF and think “why isn’t the puck going in at all with all those corsis?”

    View this series so far my answer is “variance” and “Maroon isn’t burying the ones he scored all year”

    Is Maroon’s SH% variance or is it influenced by injury? Dunno, but in the words of one of my Gords “That boy ain’t right”

    As for the “focus on Defence” , the wingers are the least players in team defence and 67 is probably a better defensive player than 19 given their histories. 36 gets around the ice better so if he’s positionaly sound, he’ll probably be better than 19 too.

  113. JDI Хоккей says:

    HAPPY BALLS DAY EVERYONE!

  114. JDI Хоккей says:

    I see that Bill Scott slid down my chimney last night and left me a big ol’ Flames egg!

  115. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0: There is no question that the lack of goals vis a vi the corsi can just be variance.

    That said, the elite scoring players’ GF% outperform their CF% because they are elite scoring players.

    You can look at the CF and think “oh, its fine they’ll score”

    or you can look at the CF and think “why isn’t the puck going in at all with all those corsis?”

    View this series so far my answer is “variance” and “Maroon isn’t burying the ones he scored all year”

    Is Maroon’s SH% variance or is it influenced by injury?Dunno, but in the words of one of my Gords “That boy ain’t right”

    As for the “focus on Defence” , the wingers are the least players in team defence and 67 is probably a better defensive player than 19 given their histories.36 gets around the ice better so if he’s positionaly sound, he’ll probably be better than 19 too.

    HD penetration; Targeting; Career Shooting %

    What 5-6 years ago on Eberle’s sustainability.

    See what working on your HD data base does for your thinking!

    At least you understand why I thought you were smart but sooooo silly those years ago!

  116. rickithebear says:

    I see steve$ responded to Draisatl at 8M

    When you look back thru past few years:
    2yrs before Post ELC contract
    with Age last year of ELC.
    Gaudreau 142P .89 PPG (22) 6 @ 6.75M
    Forsberg 127P .77 PPG (21) 6 @ 6M
    Monohan 125P .77PPG (21) 7 @ 6.375M
    Hubredeau 113P .73 PPG (21) 6 @ 5.9M
    Barkov 95P .69 PPG (20) 6 @ 5.9M

    We see increments of .06PPG being worth .375M over 6 years.
    we see Added UFA years being .375M per over the length of contract.

    Draisatl 128P .83PPG (21)
    we see Draisatl .06 short of Gaudreau
    6 @ 6.375M
    we see Draisatl .06 Ahead of Monohan
    7 @ 6.750
    If we want that 8th season we have to add .375
    8 @ 7.125M

  117. oilersfan says:

    Giraffes were created when Stan Weir gave a horse an uppercut

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