RE 16-17 LEON DRAISAITL: NO SURPRISES

We entered this season discussing Leon Draisaitl as a center who would need to push the river in order to have success. We end the regular season talking about an impact season by the big man playing on right wing with Connor McDavid. It was a dream season with a nightmare outcome. The point total is fantastic, and the cap sum is going to be equally spectacular. No Surprises.

LEON DRAISAITL 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.05 (2nd among regular forwards, No. 51 NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 6.67 (2nd among regular forwards, No. 10 NHL)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 51.3
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 0.5
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 52.70
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 4.8
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 172 shots/16.9%
  • Boxcars: 82, 29-48-77 (No. 8 NHL)
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS

  • RE 16-17: 75, 15-25-40 (0.53)
  • Actual 16-17: 82, 29-48-77 (0.94)
  • Source
  1. Haha. God. GREAT RE! GIVE up! My RE was based on Leon playing center without Taylor Hall.
  2. Whew. He shoved that prediction straight up your rectum! As I mentioned before the season, I thought he was going to play center. Potential linemates included Jesse Puljujarvi, Patrick Maroon and Benoit Pouliot (I thought Lucic and maybe Eberle would line up with 97).
  3. Either way, that’s a major gap. You bet. I think the RE is going to be a little vulnerable in the coming seasons because reasonable depends on whether or not you play with Connor McDavid.
  4. How much does 97 help Leon? At 5×5, Leon scored 2.23/60 alongside Connor McDavid during the regular season. He is 1.79/60 at 5×5 without McDavid and that’s a good not great number, and his 2.05/60 is solid and everyone should be happy with his season.
  5. Can Leon center a line on his own? I think he could, and would probably be successful. Increasingly, I think Leon is going to be McDavid’s winger.
  6. McDavid to Draisaitl? Yes.
  7. Is that a good idea? I think it would have been a good idea to avoid it for this season.
  8. Why? Leon’s new contract is going to be a monster.
  9. I thought we agreed he was going to get the Barkov deal? Barkov’s deal has a $5.9M cap hit for six seasons. I think it’s going to take $6.5M to get it done with Leon, but we’ll see.
  10. Why? Leon’s season has better boxcars and he finished in the top 10 scorers, things like that. My guess is the contract is going to be more dear than Barkov’s. Maybe $6.2M but it’s going to be a big one.
  11. Is Leon a lot better with McDavid than Eberle? Offensively (5×5), Leon ran 2.23/60 with McDavid and Eberle was 2.22/60. There is no difference at all in terms of offensive production.
  12. Then why Leon? Interesting question. I think it has to do with chem, and probably wanting McDavid to have some size on the wing, plus McDavid scores well with Leon alongside. Maybe it’s the faceoffs. 🙂
  13. Is McDavid better with Leon and Eberle? Again at 5×5, 97 was 3.04/60 scoring this season with Leon on his line. McDavid was 2.08/60. So there is a spike in performance by McDavid when he is with Leon, and we are talking 670 (Leon) and 404  (Eberle) minutes at 5×5 during 2016-17.
  14. Anything else? Yes. I think Peter Chiarelli has been betting the McDavid cluster since he got here and that means Leon, Nurse, Puljujarvi and the rest. From 2013-2016 drafts and college free agents/junior free agents signed by PC, that’s the cluster. Makes sense when you factor in the expansion draft, and it also means Eberle (like Hall) may not be here for the long haul. Mostly cap related and impacts Nuge and others, but that may be a factor here.
  15. Who goes? Well, Jordan Eberle has two more years to go on his contract, so that’s a pressure point. Nuge and Sekera are 2021 free agents, Larsson too. I think PC will try to offload Mark Fayne and Benoit Pouliot this summer, thus pushing a trade to (at the earliest) the deadline 2018.
  16. How has Leon performed in the playoffs? He was central to the team’s success in Games 5 and 6, drove the Sharks crazy. He is a unique combination of speed, strength and skill, even though it’s uncertain his man strength has arrived. There is an air of Paul Bunyan about him already.
  17. Who are his comparables? Another strong list, Draisaitl is in good company. The hockey-reference index sussed out Nuge, Jamie Benn, Rick Nash, David Pastrnak.
  18. Can the Oilers win a Stanley Cup with Draisaitl in a prominent role? Yes, I think so. His 2016-17 season was fantastic and he remains a young man learning the league. San Jose couldn’t contain him in their two biggest games this season. He’s a bear on skates.
  19. Name the Chiarelli foundation cluster, the guys who will be here for a decade. Well, 10 years is a long time so the list won’t be long. If we say five years, then McDavid, Draisaitl, Lucic, Kassian, Puljujarvi, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, probably Talbot but you never know with goalies.
  20. What about Nuge? I hope they keep him, this series against SJS shows how valuable RNH can be to this team. Oilers don’t have a suitable replacement (there is no Sean Couturier coming up) so it will poke a hole in what may be a handsome depth chart at center.
  21. Last spring, you said the organization should have traded Draisaitl instead of Hall. You’re like the Gretzky of wrong.  I said (quoting) “believe that would have been the better way, dealing Leon and Darnell and a pick in order to get a complete defender. The Oilers held on to the McDavid cluster, and that is textbook in team building. In this case, it is my opinion that the textbook is wrong.”
  22. GRETZKY OF WRONG! Beginning this fall, Leon will probably make more than Hall does now. I agree having him under control for McDavid’s second contract is wise, but remain uncertain if Draisaitl can push the river. Edmonton is going to pay full price before knowing if the big man can drive a line all by his lonesome. In regard to Nurse, we will talk about it in his RE, but that’s another contract to worry over.
  23. So you think PC made a mistake then? He bet the McDavid cluster and that is the play. Going my route you get Taylor Hall until 2020 summer, Draisaitl’s contract could go through 2025. It is hard to argue the extra five years during McDavid’s run in Edmonton.
  24. So Chiarelli was right? Draisaitl ended up top  10 in scoring, it is hard to argue against that kind of success. The one argument I will make, and I understand it is futile, is that the Oilers are going to sign Leon to a contract worth (possibly) $56 million without knowing if he can drive a successful tough minutes line alone. There is danger here, although it won’t be a popular thing to bring up at contract time.
  25. Why this song? Radiohead songs often mean different things to different people, so I’m not going to get too heavy into the actual lyrics. I chose this song because Leon has surprised us in several areas. In his rookie season, he was unready. In his second season, he didn’t make the NHL team, but when he arrived it was instant success (with Taylor Hall). For the 2016-17 season, I bet on him playing center and he was on the wing (although taking lots of faceoffs). No one thought he would finish top 10 in NHL scoring, at least no one I know.
  26. Is Leon part of the McDavid cluster? Inner circle, along with Darnell Nurse.

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130 Responses to "RE 16-17 LEON DRAISAITL: NO SURPRISES"

  1. Lowetide says:

    At 10 this morning, lowdown with Lowetide

    10:20 Scott Burnside
    10:40 Rob Soria
    11:05 jason Gregor
    11:20 Sunil Agnihotri

    10-1260 text, @lowetide twitter. Soon!

  2. JustWatt says:

    There are no sure things in this game, as in life, but I would hazard to guess that the odds that Drai can push his own line during the life of the coming contract is better than 50/50. It’s still a bet but it seems like a good one.

  3. OF17 says:

    I agree that we don’t know if Leon can push a tough minutes line on his own, but that’s part of the reason we’re talking about $6.5M rather than $8.5M. Personally, I feel good betting on Leon. There is uncertainty, but it’s not hard to imagine a guy with his vision, passing, shot, and physical tools being able to carry a respectable scoring line. Might mean 60 points rather than 80, but I think Leon can do it, and that would be worth $6.5M IMO.

  4. Offside says:

    $6.5M? You may be the Gretzky of wrong when if comes to Drai, but man thats a huge second contract for the big man. I hope you’re wrongness continues here.
    Although that amount is still second in importance to what McDavid gets post-ELC

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    7. Is that a good idea? I think it would have been a good idea to avoid it for this season.
    8. Why? Leon’s new contract is going to be a monster.

    Purposely tanking a player’s numbers in a contract year is very much a ‘smartest men in the room’ thing to do. I don’t think this happens in real life as even the most hard-headed GMs and most avarice-driven agents know that down that road, there is anarchy and paranoia. I get what you’re saying LT, we’ve given large contracts to guys based on unsustainable numbers they posted in their contract year. But these were mainly older guys who it really wasn’t certain whether they could cover the bet. Draisaitl is a good bet.

    Pay the man, Jeeves, and damn his eyes!

  6. OF17 says:

    Offside:
    $6.5M? You may be the Gretzky of wrong when if comes to Drai, but man thats a huge second contract for the big man. I hope you’re wrongness continues here.
    Although that amount is still second in importance to what McDavid gets post-ELC

    It certainly seems in the range. The two most comparable contracts are likely Barkov’s (2016) 6y @ $5.9M and Monahan’s (2016) 7y @ $6.375M. Draisaitl did out-boxcar them, although Barkov’s pace was pretty similar. We’re also buying an extra RFA year with Draisaitl relative to the others, so maybe that drives the price down. $6.5M would be a bit on the high end, but it’s close enough to be reasonable.

  7. Ducey says:

    Jethro Tull:
    7.Is that a good idea? I think it would have been a good idea to avoid it for this season.
    8.Why? Leon’s new contract is going to be a monster.

    Purposely tanking a player’s numbers in a contract year is very much a ‘smartest men in the room’ thing to do.I don’t think this happens in real life as even the most hard-headed GMs and most avarice-driven agents know that down that road, there is anarchy and paranoia.I get what you’re saying LT, we’ve given large contracts to guys based on unsustainable numbers they posted in their contract year.But these were mainly older guys who it really wasn’t certain whether they could cover the bet.Draisaitl is a good bet.

    Pay the man, Jeeves, and damn his eyes!

    Couldn’t they just bridge Leon this year, play him at C next year, and see where it goes from there?

    If I am Chia I make this known in the summer, and watch the UFA RW’s line up to play with Connor.

  8. OF17 says:

    Ducey: Couldn’t they just bridge Leon this year, play him at C next year, and see where it goes from there?

    If I am Chia I make this known in the summer, and watch the UFA RW’s line up to play with Connor.

    Huge risk of a Subban contract there, and you’re essentially betting on your core player to falter. If that’s your bet, why not trade him?

  9. leadfarmer says:

    Radiohead it is then. Ok. But if you start putting Kid A and Amnesiac at the same time we’ll be wondering if you and Woodguy are taking bong hits in the basement

  10. dustrock says:

    leadfarmer:
    Radiohead it is then.Ok.But if you start putting Kid A and Amnesiac at the same time we’ll be wondering if you and Woodguy are taking bong hits in the basement

    Hey are you paranoid no I am android

  11. Jon K says:

    Your alter ego is a bit of a dick today. No surprises is an interesting song choice but can’t complain that it isn’t fitting.

    For what it’s worth, you’re right about the dream season nightmare result part. Can’t see how Draisaitl does not ask for at least Johnny Gaudreau’s contract. We should be happy with anything under 7.0.

  12. Snowman says:

    I agree anything under 7.0 is good. You don’t score top 10 in scoring in your ELC and not get paid. I’d be extremely pleased with something under 6.5 but I’m not holding my breath.

    I love Drai. Third favourite Oiler I think (Nuge and Mcdavid). Its been pretty fun watching him this year. His shot is sneaky good. He’s not exactly sneaky strong but he’s stronger than I think people realize even though they expect him to be strong. I’m pretty sure he can pass well enough to put one of those saucer passes under a tea cup without spilling a drop. And he’ll stick you in the balls AND he has a fantastic beard.

    What’s not to love?

  13. season not played says:

    If you screw with Draisaitl, you’re probably screwing with McDavid.

    Don’t fuck around with Leon. Or Darnell for that matter. These appear to be McDavids boys.

  14. Professor Q says:

    I guess it would be the contract length that would be in question?

    Why not bet on Draisaitl at $5.9-6.5 for 6-8 years if he agrees?

    Going the Stamkos route (although that was $7.5 for 5, and then $8.5 for 8, Drai might take a wee bit less due to the McDavid factor, possibly?) rather than Johnson route (I don’t think he agrees for $3.33 for 3).

  15. Clay says:

    Did not expect Radiohead, but am not disappointed. Fake Plastic Trees for Russell? I keed I keed.

    It’s amazing to see the development of Draisaitl. From the draft day verbal of “he’s not a better player than Bennett, just bigger”, to the struggling first season where everyone was wondering if he was bona fide.

    Well, he’s bona fide, and boy am I glad we got him and not Bennett!

    In other news, it’s fun listening to the FAN 960 morning guys struggle over who to cheer for – Ducks or Oilers. Twist in the wind, boys, twist in the wind.

  16. Professor Q says:

    Clay:
    Did not expect Radiohead, but am not disappointed.Fake Plastic Trees for Russell?I keed I keed.

    It’s amazing to see the development of Draisaitl.From the draft day verbal of “he’s not a better player than Bennett, just bigger”, to the struggling first season where everyone was wondering if he was bona fide.

    Well, he’s bona fide, and boy am I glad we got him and not Bennett!

    In other news, it’s fun listening to the FAN 960 morning guys struggle over who to cheer for – Ducks or Oilers.Twist in the wind, boys, twist in the wind.

    I always knew he’d be good. Once I saw Edmonton’s position I found him extremely intriguing (not just the German factor but yes that did contribute). Obviously was hoping for Ekblad but it worked out in the end.

    Then obviously there were doubters that season but the trade to the Rockets again intrigued me, and I hoped for the best. And he delivered splendidly! What a playoff and Memorial Cup performance.

    Double MVP, and so close to being Double Champion that year.

  17. LMHF#1 says:

    Looking out ahead, you’ve got a team that currently has all of 1 glaring weakness (another top 4 RHD).

    You’ve got strong assets in key positions (C, 1-2D, G).

    You have to look at what is easily replaceable and what isn’t.

    Locking Leon up has very few possible downsides, and simply may require you to be a little cheaper on line 4 down the road. You should be doing that anyway.

    My current debate is whether you go RHD shopping with the 2017 1st and Jesse Puljujarvi in your wallet. I haven’t looked very far into this yet, but from the playoffs especially, it appears the glaring weakness on this squad is not having someone to play with Sekera. If that pair was strong+stable, the SJ series would have been over in 5 tops.

  18. russ99 says:

    Tough minutes and soft minutes don’t exist in the playoffs, and that’s what we need to build our team for.

    So many of the things this fanbase has clinged to in the last 10 years of losing such as “Oilers hockey”, three scoring lines, “pushing the river”, scoring off the rush, soft and hard minutes lines, all puck movers, etc. have little bearing on our eventual goal, which is winning in the playoffs and winning a Stanley Cup in Connor’s second contract.

    In light of that, Chiarelli made the smart moves.

  19. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Lowetide,

    I’d like to point out that $6mil 4 years ago is worth more now. Time value of money, inflation (larger cap) would suggest that Leon will be getting a ballpark Taylor Hall deal. In my opinion, given the (small amount of) playoff success and his ability to play C, he’s more valuable than Taylor Hall. I think $6.3 x 8 years is not a terrible bet. I’d love to seem him here for the next decade. Also, that figure could end up being a bargain more than it’s likely to end up being an overpay. It’ll be tough to endure until Korp’s buyout, Fayne’s and Pou’s contracts expire but I’d rather be in this conundrum than not be in it. Having to decide what to do with a great player is a great problem to have.

  20. leadfarmer says:

    Clay,

    Curious who’s going to be in the right place.(Everything in it’s right place) Klefbom? LaTesttube as 4C. ? Nuge? I guess with injury issues last year and career threatening wound issues I would probably vote Klef

  21. LMHF#1 says:

    russ99,

    It should now be abundantly clear to everyone that you need 4 scoring lines and to ice your most talented lineup every night possible.

  22. striatic says:

    Draisaitl is shooting at 16% this year and that’s just not sustainable. It is difficult to say he’s “sheltered” exactly, given quality of competition, but he’s playing with McDavid and that changes everything. These are real red flags when it comes to placing a contract value on the player. The shooting percentage in particular is concerning.

    I don’t think there’s any way to go seriously wrong with Draisaitl’s contract though. He can do so many other things beyond scoring goals than even if he gets a larger contract based on his goal production and his shooting percentage regresses, it isn’t like a large contract would be an albatross. He’s Nuge-like in this respect, but with the McDavid contract looming the cap-space margins are tighter.

    Trading out Eberle and losing maybe half of the 6m cap hit after the return, using the return to cover losing a different 3m contract to UFA, and then 6.5m to Draisaitl is safe. He will cover that bet, as Nuge has.

  23. Professor Q says:

    LMHF#1,

    It depends on IF there would be a viable RHD available, and for that cost/talent. I don’t think there is, nor would it be worth it at this time.

    If not, and if the cost is too high, then I say stick with Puljujärvi and the 1st (maybe trade up? Won’t get the Swede RHD but might get second best). Stick with Bear, Benning, and more College/University signings.

    Lightly pad the lineup with low-medium-cost ventures who contribute and keep the stock building, as opposed to further diminishing it by going all out for a star.

    I mean, unless we could do the near-impossible and get Ekblad, Jones, Ristolainen, Trouba, Vatanen, etc. …

  24. Brantford Boy says:

    Don’t mess around with the ‘German Gretzky’… just get it done… 50 million has a nice ring to it, no? How about 8 years on McDavids team, yeah… 6.25 per, sign here.

  25. Woogie63 says:

    I think Driasaitl will be tied to Hopkins more than McDavid.

    Nuge’s offence is coming up short of a 2C on a great team. He plays responsible, kills penalty and get the puck out of our zone, but ended up a -10 on the team. But is not adding enough points 5v5 or on the PP. Lots of positive in the Shark’s series, but zero points is a big red flag.

    If Nuge 2016/17 is the Nuge of the future, Driasaitl will be our 2C.

  26. LMHF#1 says:

    Professor Q:
    LMHF#1,

    It depends in IF there would be a viable RHD available, and for that cost/talent.

    If not, and if the cost is too high, then I say stick with Puljujärvi and the 1st (maybe trade up? Won’t get the Swede RHD but might get second best). Stick with Bear, Benning, and more College/University signings. Lightly pad it and keep the stock building, as opposed to further diminishing it.

    I’m firmly of the belief that you must look at next year as a chance to win, and act accordingly.

    Would be targeting an RHD with 1 year left on his deal quite possibly. Depends what’s out there, but that would make such a difference – especially at playoff time.

  27. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I think there is a legitimate and fair argument for Chiarelli to make to Leon’s agent while still not trashing the player.

    Leon’s non McD numbers are second line. Everybody gets zoomed by McD and that doesn’t have to dictate the salary. Leon has not proven himself alone.

    A bridge deal is the answer. Surely Chiarelli can see the issues with long term money deals with the Austins – only Hall wasn’t overpaid and it likely causes the loss of one more of those players. I hope Pete’s smart about it, no problem paying Leon if he is established but he isn’t, yet.

    Same with Maroon if they keep him. No way he should get big money for potting one tenth of his McDavid chances.

    The other thing is walking carefully around roster construction because of McDavid. If Chiarelli overpays and doesn’t get the correct value out of contracts it reduces the quality of the roster supporting McDavid.

    I think we can all see how much Connor likes to not win, and enjoys pissing around about hockey. I’m sure he’d love to carry overpaid players that don’t help him succeed.

    If the decision and deal making doesn’t take a step forward from what it has been Connor is going to have an opinion, and if it isn’t favourable that is potentially the worst possible outcome for the team and us as fans.

  28. dustrock says:

    LMHF#1:
    Looking out ahead, you’ve got a team that currently has all of 1 glaring weakness (another top 4 RHD).

    You’ve got strong assets in key positions (C, 1-2D, G).

    You have to look at what is easily replaceable and what isn’t.

    Locking Leon up has very few possible downsides, and simply may require you to be a little cheaper on line 4 down the road. You should be doing that anyway.

    My current debate is whether you go RHD shopping with the 2017 1st and Jesse Puljujarvi in your wallet. I haven’t looked very far into this yet, but from the playoffs especially, it appears the glaring weakness on this squad is not having someone to play with Sekera. If that pair was strong+stable, the SJ series would have been over in 5 tops.

    Well, I’d say maybe 2nd or 3rd line RW, 3C for sure, RHD for sure.

    Absolutely agree Sekera needs a RHD partner.

    Think the 3C problem is going to continue to be a problem. Desharnais and Letestu have had their moments, but overall haven’t carried the play. They both can work as a 4C I think, like Letestu in his Leatherman PP/PK ice time, but having someone like a Hanzal would be great, even if that’s a pipe dream.

  29. LMHF#1 says:

    Professor Q:
    LMHF#1,

    I mean, unless we could do the near-impossible and get Ekblad, Jones, Ristolainen, Trouba, Vatanen, etc. …

    If the new Buffalo GM took leave of his sanity and attempted to move Rasmus, you’d have to be at the head of that line.

  30. Stud Muffin says:

    I think an Ed Sheeran song would have made more sense…….😜

  31. LMHF#1 says:

    dustrock: Well, I’d say maybe 2nd or 3rd line RW, 3C for sure, RHD for sure.

    Absolutely agree Sekera needs a RHD partner.

    Think the 3C problem is going to continue to be a problem.Desharnais and Letestu have had their moments, but overall haven’t carried the play.They both can work as a 4C I think, like Letestu in his Leatherman PP/PK ice time, but having someone like a Hanzal would be great, even if that’s a pipe dream.

    Still treating Leon as a C.

    Would love to upgrade on Letestu (add an RH winger for the powerplay *cough*JustinWilliams*cough* and then replace him with a more versatile 4C), but if money’s an issue you can get by.

    They’ve got a lot of wingers floating around – almost all of whom are fairly talented. Great problem to have. If only Alex Debrincat was also in that group…

  32. Silver Streak says:

    Anyone hear news on Spencer Foo ??

  33. druds1 says:

    LT, stop being a Debbie downer….Wait till the wild ride is over before we start worrying about Drai and his money. I look at it as if we had kept Hall we were down 6 million anyways so how is it worse that we pay a better player 6+ million and Hall could never play center and Drai can possibly do both so his versatility makes his 6+ salary more of a bargain …No?

  34. Offside says:

    OF17,

    Deep down I know you are right and I wouldn’t be as worried if the cap was continually going up but GM’s can’t rely on that anymore. Maybe its also a case of once bitten twice shy with Ebs and Nuge’s contracts.
    Man, we’re gonna need some inexpensive third and fourth liners and the best way to do that is to draft them. History hasn’t been kind to us in that area as we are not exactly overflowing with abundance from our current prospects.
    But to expand on my earlier statement: Drai’s contact will have about $1 million wiggle room at best. Conner could be anywhere from $9.7 – 12 million. That $2.3 million swing will be a big deal this time next year

  35. Ford Prefect says:

    @lowetide

    There was mention of a strange scroll to the top of the page “feature” occurring this weekend in the comments. It just happened to me and I have tracked it down to the video ads that play. Specifically the Canada Dry video ad. Every time that ad loads or cycles again your users get scrolled to the top of the page. You may want to fire an email off to the ad network you are using and mention it.

  36. Professor Q says:

    Silver Streak:
    Anyonehear news on Spencer Foo ??

    No word yet, at least not on the InterWebz that I’ve visited.

  37. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    – Great post LT! I thought you were burying the Hall thingy!

    – Drai does present a challenge: I’d say the the Steve Austins are probably all priced a little rich to FMV (like Seguin is being paid 5.75MM, Duchene 6MM, for C’s: Marchand $6.125MM, Hall @ $6 seems right): but none of contracts aren’t “awful”

    – Drai is a talented forward, on a team that is going to score a lot of goals: he”ll get paid: it’s a test for Chia and management for sure, as it cascades though.

    – I like Ebs and RNH fine, but if we don’t win the Cup this year, and they don’t start putting up points: they are obvious candidates to get shipped out.

    – Now if they just continue to out-corsi, without secondary scoring and we go to Cup = dilemma

  38. Ducey says:

    OF17: Huge risk of a Subban contract there, and you’re essentially betting on your core player to falter. If that’s your bet, why not trade him?

    I would do one year. See where Leon is at after next year.

    Subban was a 2 yr bridge, which gave him lots of leverage

  39. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Ford Prefect,

    – Yeah, had the same Canada Dry issue: it’s fine today: back to working (and lurking LT!)

  40. rickithebear says:

    when I looked at other cotracts in a previous thread.
    6Yr seemed to be the base for 2nd contract.
    Base dollars was slightly dependent on Age of contract signing. and PPG rate.
    On the upper end of PPG players .
    .006 PPG was a .375M increase over a 6yr contract.
    .77PPG last 2 year ELC seems to be the 6yr @ 6M level
    Buying 1yr above 6 years was .375M per year.
    For every year above age 21 contract signing is .125M less

    Schiefle was 23 at Contract signing 2 years older.
    6.0M – .250 = @ 5.75M
    He was .71 PPG .06 less than .77
    5.75 – .375 = 5.375M @ 6YR
    they bought 2 extra years above 6yr.
    5.375 + (2x.375) = 8yr @ 6.125M

    Monohan was (21 at signing)
    he was .77 PPG
    6yr @ 6M
    Calgary bought 1 more year.
    7 @ 6.375M

    Gaudreau was 22 at signing
    so .125 should be removed from 6yr base.
    6 @ 5.875M
    he was .89 PPG or .12 PPG greater than .77
    5.875 + .75 = 6 @ 6.625M
    But I suspect they pushed for an equal base as monohan.
    and wanted less term.
    So 6yr @ 6.75M is what to expect for situation.

    Draisatl will b 21 at signing
    He was .83 PPG .06 PPG more
    6 @ 6.375
    I would expect 1 more year of contract bought!

    7 @ 6.75M

  41. McSorley33 says:

    What is taking Spencer Foo so long…..

    How can you not join the Oil….look where this train is headed.

    Possibly play along the wing of McDavid?

    Edit: Sorry Silver Streak

  42. Bag of Pucks says:

    RE Draisaitl vs RNH at 2C next year.

    The organizational goal should be to put the player in the position within the roster that maximizes their strengths. Leon found his way to 1RW cos nobody else on the roster seized the opportunity, but it’s not the best usage of his talents.

    Drai is a big man with excellent vision and puck sense, and most importantly, he is an elite level distributor on both his forehand AND backhand, and he’s decent on defence and solid on faceoffs. In all honesty, that screams 1C but that job is taken for the next decade or more.

    RNH is a talented playmaker who’s good defensively but he can’t win faceoffs and he’s not producing points at an elite level at C.

    The only reason this is even a conversation is because Leon has to be given the mins to first prove he’s a river pusher. He will and that process will start next season imo.

    The most encouraging thing about this roster now is they’ve finally reached the point where the talent is pushing up and the improvement looks to come from within.

    Both Nurse and Benning will get the chance to compete for Russell’s slot and players like Simpson, Bear, Jones, Oesterle, etc. will start pushing for the third pairing. Having one rook per season breaking in on that third pairing is team building 101. So no, I don’t believe signing or trading for a Top 4 D in the offseason will be the priority.

    Puli will be given a shot to push into the Top 6 but likely lands on the 3 line ala Caggiula to start.

    This leaves RNH as a $6 mil per 3C or in a perfect world, he competes with Lucic and Maroon for a Top 6 LW slot. Ebs has job security locked up until Puli forces the issue imo. If, RNH were to become a true outscorer as a 1LW alongside McDavid, you could then trade either Maroon or Lucic to get a superior two way 3C at a price likely less than $6 mil per freeing up cap room for depth moves elsewhere.

    The huge question in terms of how this plays out is, ‘what does MacLellan’ value more? Does he prefer a Top 6 stacked with scorers or does he really like the matchup flexibility down the middle with RNH as a potential 3C?

    The one thing I’ll never understand is why it’s perfectly acceptable for one young C (Draisaitl) to make the move to W, while suggesting it for the other (RNH) is borderline heresy with this org.

    Make the most of their talents. For me, that means Draisaitl at C.

  43. Professor Q says:

    rickithebear,

    What about Seguin’s $5.75 AAV for 6 years?

    The only additions are the modified NMC for the last two years, at $6 each.

    If we could pull it off closer to that than to Stamkos’ $7.5 for 5, then we’d be singing and dancing.

    Which would mean to average out to $6.24-6.75 for 6-8 years with possible modified NMC for the last few years.

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ford Prefect:
    @lowetide

    There was mention of a strange scroll to the top of the page “feature” occurring this weekend in the comments. It just happened to me and I have tracked it down to the video ads that play. Specifically the Canada Dry video ad. Every time that ad loads or cycles again your users get scrolled to the top of the page. You may want to fire an email off to the ad network you are using and mention it.

    Same thing just happened to me as well.

  45. Georges says:

    Bag of Pucks: Same thing just happened to me as well.

    It’s exasperating enough to chase me off the site. Let’s go Oilers!

  46. N64 says:

    Ford Prefect:
    @lowetide

    There was mention of a strange scroll to the top of the page “feature” occurring this weekend in the comments. It just happened to me and I have tracked it down to the video ads that play. Specifically the Canada Dry video ad. Every time that ad loads or cycles again your users get scrolled to the top of the page. You may want to fire an email off to the ad network you are using and mention it.

    Perhaps the message is that if you Drink Canada Dry you’ll forget where you were every time. 😉

  47. N64 says:

    Have not seen that ad. Anyone know if it is a Flash ad???

    (Sometime my computer bogged down here before I disabled Flash. Now I only enable Flash temporarily if I actually need it.)

  48. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    – I agree with all this: can Drai outperform RNH as 2nd C: that’s the contract question

    – If he can, RNH is gone, if Drai is better next 10 years as winger, then we need a better 2C IMO.

    – It just goes to show how far we have come, and how bad we were, that Ebs and RNH are middling 2nd liners with many of the same issues they had when they were part of our top-line. Sure they are better now at some parts, but not secondary scoring:

    – We won’t win the 2nd round if RNH-Lucic-Ebs score 1 goal again: corsi be damned!

  49. flea says:

    Is Draisaitl really a winger on McDavid’s line? I’m no expert, but I see a guy taking most of the key draws, first back for the puck, generally playing the center position in the defensive zone.

    McDavid looks more like the winger on that line than Drai does.

  50. Jethro Tull says:

    Georges: It’s exasperating enough to chase me off the site. Let’s go Oilers!

    Yep, never had this problem with the ‘Horny Singles Dying to Meet You.’

    #firstworldproblems

  51. dustrock says:

    https://futureconsiderations.ca/nhl-draft-primer/

    Future Considerations has a free draft primer you can download with their top 100 plus little summaries of each of the top 100.

    LT had us picking Lias Andersson. FC has him at #13.

    At #84 he had us taking Mario Ferraro. They have him at #67.

    At #86 LT had Chmelevski. FC has him at #45.

  52. leadfarmer says:

    You cant bridge a guy who as a 21 yo finished top 10 in league scoring. We made our bed and now have to lay in it. Even if you could I doubt you get it under 4 mil per for 2 years. Just sign the man 5.5 per to 6.25 per sounds very reasonable given some of the contracts out there.

  53. wheatnoil says:

    ****** SPAM ALERT ******
    Only tangentially related to this thread, I wrote a thing about Nuge and how great he was in first round, despite the lack of a point.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/04/nugent-hopkins-playoff-hero/

    ****** END SPAM ******

  54. wheatnoil says:

    Note on the thread: The other thing about Draisaitl’s season was the bonus money, which should chew in to a bit of cap space for next season. My calculations have it at just under a million of overage. That and Draisaitl’s second contract will cut in to the 2nd pair RHD fund a little bit.

    If Fayne gets off-loaded, it’s all good, but I’d be surprised to see that happening without an equal contract coming back. Buy-out is quite possible, but that’s another bit of dead cap space to keep on the leger along with the second year of the Korpikoski buyout.

  55. neojanus says:

    flea,

    McDavid will eventually start winning 55% of his draws. Mark it.

  56. leadfarmer says:

    dustrock,

    I think that Pettersson kid is an interesting prospect. PPG in Timra where only 3 guys have more than 20 points, (Mora had 9). Very skinny guy and makes Nuge look old. Draft and wait kind of guy but given low ceiling of this draft, shooting for the moon isnt a bad choice

  57. bill needle says:

    Draisaitl and McDavid turned Taylor Hall into the Oilers’ Pete Best.

  58. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Playoff Death March Update:

    Death March would like to thank the following players who have predicted less than 4 Oilers playoff wins. They are:

    0 Wins – Chachi, Kris, Godot 10

    1 Win – GMB3

    2 Wins – T010801, Younger Oil, Ducey, Factotum, Ladies Love Smid, BS, Odd Spell, Truth, Striatic, “Steve Smith”(unverified rumor)

    3 Wins – Ashley, Rich M, SNFU, North of 51, Russ, Edmonton Fan

    The next 207 players will all have their names published at a later date.

  59. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    wheatnoil,

    – This is great! Maybe RNH’s role is “baby Steve Yzerman”?

  60. OF17 says:

    wheatnoil,

    Nice piece, Wheat. Makes me wonder if the play is to split McDavid and Draisaitl this series. If Nuge can saw off Getzlaf, I like our chances of winning the overall war between McDavid vs. Kesler and Draisaitl vs. Vermette.

  61. slopitch says:

    A thing that stands out to me with Leon is that for the past 2 years since he was sent down to the WHL he’s developed at a amazing rate and exceeded expectations. Earlier this year in the WHC he started slow and was reduced minutes a few games but he met the challenge and ended up being a good player for Europe. He had a couple lulls this season and smashed his way out of them. Same with earlier in the SJ series, by game 5/6 he was one of the better players . Yes he’s playing with 97 but his career to trending nicely. I wouldnt bet against him.

  62. Aron_S says:

    I feel like Jerk LT/Unreasonable LT should have asked the kinder, gentler LT about Bennett vs Draisaitl.

    Love the series, love the music.

  63. godot10 says:

    Offside:
    $6.5M? You may be the Gretzky of wrong when if comes to Drai, but man thats a huge second contract for the big man. I hope you’re wrongness continues here.
    Although that amount is still second in importance to what McDavid gets post-ELC

    Look at what Barkov and Monahan got. $5.9 and $6.375. Draisaitl is $6 something if one goes long term.

    A 3-year bridge deal is conceivable, but not probable.

  64. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Playoff Death March Update:

    Death March players who currently have predicted over 4 Oilers wins are:

    5 Wins – Lucinius, Just Watt, Ice Sage, Just the Stats Man, Gerta Rauss

    6 Wins – Westchester Oil, Lead Farmer, Pink Socks, N Panciroli, Pastor of Disaster,
    Melvis, New Improved Darkness, Nafnikufesin, Washingtron, Frank the Dog,
    Van Isle Oil, Profit, Bag of Pucks, Skating in Sand, McSorely 33, Ryder,
    So Polar, Aron_S, Lloyd B, Bar_Qu, Marconiuse, Doug McLachlan, Oil in the Peg,
    Elk Horn Boy, Chilichunk, Hudson, Flea, Lowetide, Jon K, Spengler, Mesmer,
    The Wax Collector, Spengler

    7 Wins – John Chambers, Craig Zonit, Unca Miltie, Stephen Sheps, Side, TOML,
    Centre of Attention, Smelly Glove, DBO, Oiler 2 Oilers, Jeng A66, Cranky,
    Tap Dog, Monster Bater, Kev, Jimmers 2, Adam James, Centre of Attention

    More Death March players will have their names published at a later date.

  65. Chachi says:

    hunter1909: 0 Wins – Chachi, Kris, Godot 10

    To be fair, I also predicted 0 losses. So I was wrong about both!

  66. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Playoff Death March Update:

    Death March players who currently have predicted 8 Wins and 9 Wins are:

    8 Wins – Nuclear Leak

    9 Wins – Woodguy, Wolf pack, Domino Oiler, Rock N Rolla, Shane, Hung Over Man,
    Green Shifter, Oil Greg, TWACRAY, Jake

    More Death March players will have their names published at a later date

  67. hunter1909 says:

    Chachi: To be fair, I also predicted 0 losses. So I was wrong about both!

    Thank you for playing Hunter1909’s Oilers 2017 Playoff Death March.

  68. Oilin4 says:

    Draisaitl gets Monahan plus inflation and a bonus for top 10 this season. 6.75 per, maybe as low as 6.5. Question is term. 6, 7, 8? Could see him and McDavid signing matching term lengths on the same day.

  69. Centre of attention says:

    Lindholm not skating today. Was injured game 4

    absolutely YUGE deal if he can’t go.

    Conversely, Klefbom looks good to go according to coach. Rest day today.

    Reid Wilkins‏Verified account @ReidWilkins · 43s44 seconds ago
    McLellan expects Klefbom to be ready for game one.

  70. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: Look at what Barkov and Monahan got.$5.9 and $6.375.Draisaitl is $6 something if one goes long term.

    A 3-year bridge deal is conceivable, but not probable.

    Bridge deal to what? Draisaitl’s arguably the top young player in the world not named Connor Mcdavid.

    Personally I like those Steve Austin contracts. If Dr. Drai is down for his very own Steve Austin long term commitment to the top young hockey team anywhere thanks to Connor McDavid being on it, Chiarelli pulls the trigger asap.

  71. Centre of attention says:

    I would be fine with a Draisaitl bridge contract

    Only issue with that is if he shoots the lights out with Connor over the next few years he could be coming in at 7 or 8 million per year, especially because by then there will be newly inflated comparable as time goes on.

    I’m pretty sure they bite the bullet and go for something in the 6’s and long term.

  72. Melvis says:

    Chachi,

    About the other loss. I’m under the impression Joanie was a wonderful woman – so you have my sincere condolences on her loss, but leaving her to rot in some trailer park south of Mason Dixon line? Hardly forgivable.

  73. RPG says:

    DeBoer says Thornton was playing through a torn MCL and ACL. Unreal

  74. Oilin4 says:

    N64: Perhaps the message is that if you Drink Canada Dry you’ll forget where you were every time.

    A temporary work around is to search for a word on the page. Doesn’t (at least on Chrome) jump back to the top when a word is highlighted in search.

  75. Professor Q says:

    RPG:
    DeBoer says Thornton was playing through a torn MCL and ACL. Unreal

    Those medical staff should be fired, to honest.

  76. Professor Q says:

    Oilin4:
    Draisaitl gets Monahan plus inflation and a bonus for top 10 this season. 6.75 per, maybe as low as 6.5. Question is term. 6, 7, 8? Could see him and McDavid signing matching term lengths on the same day.

    I say go max. Why not? Although maybe it’d be more difficult. 5.75-6.25 for 6-7 if you can’t do max. He’s not quite up to Stamkos’ 7.5 for 5 post-ELC contract, but better than the usual names mentioned as his peers.

  77. Lowetide says:

    Go Daddy playing tricks again today. my apologies.

  78. Jethro Tull says:

    Professor Q: Those medical staff should be fired, to honest.

    Medical staff can only advise, not sanction. Supreme executive power is derived from a mandate from Doug Wilson. He says, “Joe, you good to go?” and Joe says “sure.” Medical staff says “I would highly recommend you do not play.” Who wins and who should win?

  79. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    Go Daddy playing tricks again today. my apologies.

    SJ sold their shares to the Ducks.

  80. Chachi says:

    Melvis:
    Chachi,

    About the other loss. I’m under the impression Joanie was a wonderful woman – so you have my sincere condolences on her loss, but leaving her to rot in some trailer park south of Mason Dixon line? Hardly forgivable.

    I was only in it to get close to Marion.

  81. rickithebear says:

    Woogie63:
    I think Driasaitl will be tied to Hopkins more than McDavid.

    Nuge’s offence is coming up short of a 2C on a great team.He plays responsible, kills penalty and get the puck out of our zone, but ended up a -10 on the team.But is not adding enough points 5v5 or on the PP.Lots of positive in the Shark’s series, but zero points is a big red flag.

    If Nuge 2016/17 is the Nuge of the future, Driasaitl will be our 2C.

    Nug has been a PvP player since he was 19 years old.
    When he faced 2nd comp for the season at 18 yrs he was .84 PPG
    .84 @ 18yr was the 10th best 18yr season in the modern era. (min 40gm)

    Mcdavid’s 18yr season was 1.07 PPG
    5th best in modern era behind Hawerchuk; Crosby; Francis; Yzerman.

    Mathews faced 2nd comp. At age 19 this year.
    He was .49 GPG and .84 PPG.
    .84 @ 19 is the 35th best 19 yr season of the modern era.

    Mcdadid was 1.22 PPG in his 19 year season
    that is the 5th best in modern era.
    Behind
    Gretzky 1.73
    Crosby 1.52
    Lemieux 1.37
    Carson 1.34
    Lindros 1.23

    assigning a upper mid and lower rank to Comp and teammates
    and
    taking a STD deviation structure that provides 8 groups.
    results in 1152 situatioal groups.
    The goal diff (+/-) medians for the situations vary from +32 to -32

    You might want to take allthe data from 07-08 to get a
    Median for the EVP/60 rate in his given situation.

    we know at 19 He had a messed shoulder.
    13-14 20yr:
    RNH 20 yr 143-14 PvP C EVPPG:
    Toews .63 EVPPG +26
    Thorton .60 +20
    Bergeron .59 +38
    Kopitar .57 +34
    Little .55 +8
    O’Rielly .53 -1
    M. Koivu .52 Even
    Fisher .51 -4
    H. Sedin .46 +3
    RNH .45 -12
    Stepan .44 +12
    Nielson .44 -11
    Zajac .41 +3
    Couturier .38 +1
    Kesler .34 -15
    Backlund .32 Even

    14-15
    Stepan .59 EVPPG +26
    H. Sedin .59 +11
    Toews .57 +30
    RNH .54 -12
    Kopitar .51 -2
    O’ Rielly .50 -5
    Bergeron .48 +2
    Little .47 +8
    Fisher .47 +4
    Backlund .46 +4
    Kadri .42 -7
    Kesler .41 -5
    Couturier .35 +4
    Nielson .33 +8
    Zajac .22 -3

    15-16
    Thorton .65 +25
    Draisatl .58 -2
    Toews .53 +16
    O’Rielly .52 -16
    Dubinsky .51 -16
    Begeron .50 +12
    Stepan .50 +5
    Couturier .49 +8
    Little .49 -13
    Kesler .47 +5
    H. Sedin .46 Even
    RNH .42 -9
    Backlund .41 +10
    M. Koivu .41 +6
    Kadri .41 -15
    Pageau .39 +17
    Nielson .37 +1
    Zajac .30 +3

    16-17
    Toews .57 +7
    Kadri .54 -7
    Couturier .47 +12
    Kesler .46 +8
    M. Koivu .45 +27
    Stepan .44 +19
    H. Sedin .43 -27
    Bergeron .42 +12
    Backlund .42 +9
    Kopitar .42 -10
    Thorton .40 +7
    O’Rielly .40 -1
    RNH .40 -10
    Zajac .39 -8
    Fisher .35 +1
    Nielson .31 -19

    when we look at PvP centers for the 4 straight seasons 13-14 to 16-17

    the average EVPPG production is
    Toews .57 EVPPG +20/season
    Bergeron .49 +16/ssn
    Stepan .49 +15/ssn
    o’rielly .49 -6/ssn
    H. Sedin .48 -3/ssn
    RNH .45 -10/ssn
    Couturier .42 +6/ssn
    Kesler .42 -2/ssn
    Backlund .40 +7/ssn
    Nielson .35 -5/ssn
    Zajac .33 -1/ssn

    It is better to understand pvp even production before commenting.
    RNH’s flaw is FO%
    He would be a better suited for 2nd comp
    were he racks .85 to 1.06 PPG

  82. rickithebear says:

    Centre of attention: Lindholm not skating today. Was injured game 4
    absolutely YUGE deal if he can’t go.

    1st comp; top 15: HD SH/60; EVGA/60; PKGA/60 Dmen
    cumulative last 3 seasons.
    Alzner
    Lindholm

  83. Gerta Rauss says:

    RPG:
    DeBoer says Thornton was playing through a torn MCL and ACL. Unreal

    Deboer alluded to a serious injury in his post game presser

    ACL is big time though..wow

    Assuming surgery and Joe still wants to play, that’s 4-6 months recovery, no..?

  84. dustrock says:

    Wow, had the Ducks in 7 given problems with Vatanen and Fowler, but now Lindholm maybe injured, and I`ve heard Kesler has been playing with a sore wrist.

    Oilers in 7?

  85. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If Chiarelli signs a very expensive deal for anyone playing on McDavid’s wing I’ll think he’s a fool. Leon is a superstar, or is he a second liner like his away from McDavid 1.75/60 says?

    Subban’s RFA that was ill advised was his second RFA contract. The first one is different, there is a lot less established performance. I have mentioned before, for core players you want to control them into their 30’s firstly to avoid the first UFA contract coming at peak value when the player is 27-30 YO, and second so there are years left on a contract for a guy you want to move, so that peak value can be realized.

    A sad Habs fan guy I know mentioned there is Price trade talk where he reads. He mentioned trading Galch, Pacc, and I responded as we know here, trading your young talent and best players isn’t going to fix a lack of offense.

    He was surprised when I said I would trade Price and Weber. Montreal won’t win a Cup in their window IMO, and if there are teams who value those players they could restock in one summer, caveat being finding a decent goaler, and maybe a decent RHD to play behind Petry.

  86. Georges says:

    LT, thank you for adjusting the settings on the video ads.

    Also, does anyone know what happened to illegal stick penalties? They used to be a thing.

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    Tough minutes and soft minutes don’t exist in the playoffs, and that’s what we need to build our team for.

    So many of the things this fanbase has clinged to in the last 10 years of losing such as “Oilers hockey”, three scoring lines, “pushing the river”, scoring off the rush, soft and hard minutes lines, all puck movers, etc. have little bearing on our eventual goal, which is winning in the playoffs and winning a Stanley Cup in Connor’s second contract.

    In light of that, Chiarelli made the smart moves.

    You might want to tell McLellan that because his post-series presser was mostly saying the opposite of your post.

  88. N64 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lindholm not skating today. Was injured game 4

    absolutely YUGE deal if he can’t go.

    Conversely, Klefbom looks good to go according to coach. Rest day today.

    Reid Wilkins‏Verified account @ReidWilkins · 43s44 seconds ago
    McLellan expects Klefbom to be ready for game one.

    If they BOTH had a rest day then you’ve got a word in there that doesn’t… oh I’d best get off “Steve”‘s lawn

  89. leadfarmer says:

    I admire Jumbo Joe trying to play through that injury, but was he seriously thinking he could play with that for 2 months. Thats crazy

  90. leadfarmer says:

    Professor Q: Those medical staff should be fired, to honest.

    Why, Its not like its their job to chain Thornton to a chair. I’m sure the injury was not misdiagnosed given every injury gets an MRI nowadays and at some point if a person refuses medical advice well then its on them.

    Also Its got to be partial thickness tears. Theres no way he would have enough stability with full thickness tears of the ACL and MCL. That would leave his knee dangling with his PCL and LCL. That would be crazy. Its like sleeping in your 4 post bed but 2 of the posts are missing and the 2 that are there are on the same side

  91. Yegfoundation says:

    LMHF#1:
    Looking out ahead, you’ve got a team that currently has all of 1 glaring weakness (another top 4 RHD).

    You’ve got strong assets in key positions (C, 1-2D, G).

    You have to look at what is easily replaceable and what isn’t.

    Locking Leon up has very few possible downsides, and simply may require you to be a little cheaper on line 4 down the road. You should be doing that anyway.

    My current debate is whether you go RHD shopping with the 2017 1st and Jesse Puljujarvi in your wallet. I haven’t looked very far into this yet, but from the playoffs especially, it appears the glaring weakness on this squad is not having someone to play with Sekera. If that pair was strong+stable, the SJ series would have been over in 5 tops.

    Great post, and interesting question. Based on this years playoff results, i tend to agree with you that PC should consider trading Puljajarvi for a Dman to play with Sekera, as the RHD appears to be the higher team need and more difficult asset to acquire. Puljajarvi make take 5 years to develop into a reliable 2nd line winger, if we can package him for a ready RHD to play second pairing that may be what’s required to get this team to the SCF next year.

  92. Roughneck says:

    leadfarmer,

    I had fun with a prism that saw Jumbos injury through Vince Carter or soccer terms.
    Jumbo would still be writhing on the ice in Vancouver.

    The Dilbert’s are having a time with Joe and the Sharks. It may involve a disconnect with what the word “commitment” means to the various viewpoints.

  93. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Thornton’s whole life has been hockey. I’m sure he asked if he would be crippled, and when they said no he was not going to watch the playoffs on tv in his last chance Texaco year or two. It’s the end of the line for him and Marleau. The Sharks’ dream has been dashed. Like a brained big fish on the deck of a over-fishing trawler. They might play a year or two more, maybe in SJ, but the window is closing as the guard changes around the league.

  94. Jethro Tull says:

    leadfarmer: Why, Its not like its their job to chain Thornton to a chair.I’m sure the injury was not misdiagnosed given every injury gets an MRI nowadays and at some point if a person refuses medical advice well then its on them

    If you ask the player, he’s going to say he can play. If you ask the Med staff, they’ll say he shouldn’t play. It’s all on the GM with the casting vote. If you know Joe won’t be here next year…….

  95. Bag of Pucks says:

    Yegfoundation: Great post, and interesting question.Based on this years playoff results, i tend to agree with you that PC should consider trading Puljajarvi for a Dman to play with Sekera, as the RHD appears to be the higher team need and more difficult asset to acquire.Puljajarvi make take 5 years to develop into a reliable 2nd line winger, if we can package him for a ready RHD to play second pairing that may be what’s required to get this team to the SCF next year.

    I’m curious as to why you both think D is such a problem? Team posted 2 shutouts against San Jose and nearly a third.

    Glaring organizational need is scoring Ws imo.

    Particularly given the organizational depth at D that’s on its way (Nurse and Benning should be 2nd pairing contenders next season and they have Bear, Jones, Paigan, Reinhart, etc. riding the bus).

  96. 106 and 106 says:

    I know it’s a singular moment, but in the headline photo, is he just testing ‘grip strength’ on the bench? Any player is just going to squeeze the life outta ya if your going to pull ’em.

    Wonder if they have x-rays in the building at NHL rinks? And how many get taken in the intermissions.

    For the MCL, it must be:
    Grade 1 (ligament stretched)
    Grade 2 (partial torn, can stand, but probably instability)
    not Grade 3 (full tear)

    For the ACL, Grade 1 (fibers torn but knee will still function)
    Grade 2 (lose functionality).

    No one tells the truth during post-season, it could be grade 1 in both knees. Really wish they’d release more info on injuries.

  97. pocession charge says:

    Gerta Rauss: Deboer alluded to a serious injury in his post game presser

    ACL is big time though..wow

    Assuming surgery and Joe still wants to play, that’s 4-6 months recovery, no..?

    If they are doing a complete reconstruction, make that 9 months recovery.

  98. pocession charge says:

    I love Brent Burns but I think the Oilers dodged a major bullet on that contract. They would have offered him an ugly retirement deal, too.

  99. NSmitty says:

    A thought occurred to me today after hearing about Jumbo Joe battling through a torn ACL and MCL (btw, I’ve gone through pretty nearly the exact same injury and I can’t wrap my mind around how he was able to play, and not just play, but play WELL).

    He’s a UFA this offseason if I’m not mistaken. If you’re Peter Chiarelli why wouldn’t you throw him a bone and see if you can cash on the lottery ticket? Maybe a one-year “prove it” deal off the back of his recovery or a two-year deal as a show of good faith.

    Cons:
    -That’s a tricky injury to come back from at any age, let alone the ripe old age of 37.
    -Even if he is able to make it back, what is he going to look like on the ice? He’ll probably lose some speed and agility, and he wasn’t the quickest man on the mountain this season.

    Pros:
    -HE PLAYED THROUGH A 6 GAME PLAYOFF SERIES SHORT TWO LIGAMENTS IN HIS KNEE!!!
    (What? I mean, what?)
    -As I had mentioned earlier, he actually played WELL all series long. He was still very effective with his injury. This is a great hockey player right here.
    -A knee injury doesn’t take away size or smarts. He proved in the playoffs that his board-work and puck-skill will not be affected.
    -He’s closer to the end of his career than he is to the beginning. I’m sure he can see the writing on the wall: he’s only got a few more cracks at the Cup. If you were to ask me which team has the greatest chance to win a Stanley Cup in the next 3 years, the Edmonton Oilers would be my pick every day of the week. It may be bad ju-ju to say this, but it almost feels like a sure thing to me. Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps, perhaps he might be inclined to take a bit of a shave (of the pocketbook nature, certainly not the face) in order to increase his chances of breaking the goose egg in the rings column.

    Edit:
    Even in his late-career seasons he has the toolbox to be an effective forward in the NHL. His 1C days may be behind him, but I think he would be a beyond perfect fit on the 2nd or 3rd line for the Oilers next season.

    Drai would be able to stay on McDaddys starboard side. RNH and Jumbo could centre our 2a and 2b lines. Hell, Jumbo could move to the wing all up and down the lineup. Edmonton has speed on the wings to make up for his slow feet.

    Seems like a perfect fit to me.

  100. Melvis says:

    I’m just riffing here. There are plenty of well versed dudes and dudettes (I’m assuming) in the house – in fancies, lore, eye test and the rest of it. In vocation, vacation, and avocation. Robert Frost notwithstanding.

    Adding anything to the shoeboxes full of trading cards and fantasies from one’s youth seems somewhat redundant to me. Frankly, I’m more akin to Fran Lebowitz.

    So in Eight Men Out. Were the umps ever mentioned? Like they didn’t have a clue? Just wondering.

    “There is no such thing as inner peace. There is only nervousness or death. Any attempt to prove otherwise constitutes unacceptable behavior.”

  101. 106 and 106 says:

    NSmitty,

    When you say the ‘same’ injury, are you talking about the same grade (1/2/3) in each ligament (ACL/MCL) that Thornton had?

    His rehab will tell us a little more based on operation/length of injury, but it’s all speculation as to what was really injured and to what extent, unless it’s written on the webs where i missed it.

  102. Ducey says:

    Yegfoundation: Great post, and interesting question.Based on this years playoff results, i tend to agree with you that PC should consider trading Puljajarvi for a Dman to play with Sekera, as the RHD appears to be the higher team need and more difficult asset to acquire.Puljajarvi make take 5 years to develop into a reliable 2nd line winger, if we can package him for a ready RHD to play second pairing that may be what’s required to get this team to the SCF next year.

    Don’t agree. That is way too much to pay for a second pairing RHD.

    Good teams don’t trade away their young assets in a Cap world. By trading JP you get rid of really the only forward prospect ready to take a step forward to the NHL next year.

    Lots of people wanted to trade Leon and Nurse over the last few years for a quick fix. How would that have looked now?

    This time last year the Oilers had zero RHD in their pro system. Now they have Larsson, Benning, Bear, and Mantha all signed for next year.

    If they can add another college UFA, and sign a stopgap UFA (like Russell) for another year, and keep ol’ Eric Gryba in a spare drawer, they will be fine. Mantha or Bear might be ready by mid season. Benning might have another gear. If not, trade for a some help at next years deadline for a playoff run. By that point the Oilers will have a lot better idea of what they have in JP.

  103. Ducey says:

    NSmitty:

    Seems like a perfect fit to me.

    He would be great. But,

    wasn’t TMac involved in taking away the C and all that bs?

    Maybe that was all on the GM Wilson, but it could be a reason Joe would not want to come here (that and he apparently did not want to move from California).

  104. böök¡je says:

    Admiral Ackbar:
    Lowetide,

    I’d like to point out that $6mil 4 years ago is worth more now. Time value of money, inflation (larger cap) would suggest that Leon will be getting a ballpark Taylor Hall deal. In my opinion, given the (small amount of) playoff success and his ability to play C, he’s more valuable than Taylor Hall.

    Goddammit, it’s whippersnappers like you who just roll over and accept this crap that results in a damn burger meal costing $9 at McDonalds. A big mac and fries at McDonald’s should be no more than $5. LT knows it and I know it, as does anyone over 45 on this blog. And if people like you would stop paying $9 for it, it would be $5! Whippersnappers!

  105. spoiler says:

    I said before Game 6 and I will say it again… we may have seen Joe Thornton’s last game.

    Obviously his heart has the desire. But does his body? Does his family? Those questions will be answered down the road, but it is by no means a lock he returns.

  106. Woogie63 says:

    Total scoring production , 2016-17, Centres, 2nd Round Play-off teams

    Team – top 2 centre in scoring 2/17 = 2 within the top 17 scoring for centres

    Pitts -2/7
    Washington -2/20
    Anaheim 2/22
    NYR 2/48
    Edmonton 2/60
    Nashville 2/61
    St. Louis – 2/75
    Sens 2/83

  107. spoiler says:

    Admiral Ackbar: I’d like to point out that $6mil 4 years ago is worth more now. Time value of money, inflation (larger cap) would suggest that Leon will be getting a ballpark Taylor Hall deal

    lol… I know what you’re trying to say but man… you’re scoring some “Steve Smith” goals. I don’t think “more” means what you think it means. Or maybe it’s “worth”..

  108. NSmitty says:

    106 and 106,

    To be honest, I haven’t seen anything regarding the grade of the injury so it very well could be a grade 1 sprain, but it seems to me that the word “torn” isn’t thrown around lightly when talking about knee injuries. In my experience “sprained” is more used for 1/2, “torn” is attributed to grade 3’s. Though this is all anecdotal, I could be wrong.

    My injury was actually a bit worse than Joe’s, so I could be way out to lunch on his severity. I suffered what is known as the “Unhappy Triad” and let me tell you, they didn’t give it that name for nothin!

    My MRI showed a fully torn (grade 3) ACL tear, a partially torn MCL (grade 2), and partially torn lateral meniscus (grade 2) to complete the Unhappy Triad. I also had a grade 1 medial meniscus tear and a small fracture in the ball joint of my femur.

    Rehab’s been slow for me and it’s not done yet (injury was 3 years ago) but I don’t have the 24/7 access to the best trainers and facilities in the world like an NHLer would. Isn’t Rogers supposed to be a state of the art training facility? What better place to rehab than that!?

  109. Profit says:

    I think Joe came back because he knew he wasn’t going to be playing for 2 months. It was a tell. Given that him and I are almost identical in age, I can sure relate when it comes to the feeling that this might be one of the last chances to make a difference on the ice. He wouldn’t want to be watching on TV. I remember when he was drafted and a little bit of me will die when he retires.

    If I were him, I’d sign a cheapy deal with a Cup contender for next year and just go full Ray Bourque in his attempt for a cup.

    Edmonton… third line for next year and top PP? Toronto (are they close enough?) Columbus (will they be able to put it together)? If he just wants a cup and not a few extra bucks he’ll have a ton of interest, his legs are giving out but his passing remains sublime.

    I actually think Edmonton could offer him a pretty attractive deal. Keep Drai on the McD wing for one more year, put Joe in 3C, give him some sweet PP minutes with McD to keep his points up… But I read in the SJ media that he was asking for a 3 year deal, which is a tough ask.

    He needs to choose wisely or else he’ll end up Iginla’d.

    And I have 6 wins in the Hunter Playoff Death March (thanks for the recap Hunter). Called losing in 6 to ANA, however with the injuries, here’s hoping I’m extremely wrong.

  110. NSmitty says:

    Ducey,

    The cold Edmonton winters could help reduce the swelling in his knee during rehab, a successful season, and a long playoff run 😉

  111. NSmitty says:

    Profit: Edmonton… third line for next year and top PP? Toronto (are they close enough?) Columbus (will they be able to put it together)? If he just wants a cup and not a few extra bucks he’ll have a ton of interest, his legs are giving out but his passing remains sublime.
    I actually think Edmonton could offer him a pretty attractive deal. Keep Drai on the McD wing for one more year, put Joe in 3C, give him some sweet PP minutes with McD to keep his points up… But I read in the SJ media that he was asking for a 3 year deal, which is a tough ask.

    Hear, hear!

  112. Melvis says:

    böök¡je,

    A couple of arthritic thumbs up. There was a time…Big Mac 65 cents. Two bucks bought 4 8oz draughts. Ten bucks a night out with a date.

    Four man Rock n roll band sharing big house doing 4 one nighters and a couple of weeks worth of club dates. $3600/month. That’s a household income of $21,600/month in contemporary shekels.

    I’m not going anywhere near something called “good old days”. There were good days and bad days, and many in-between days….but one could buy college tuition and a very nice life doing nothing more than playing drums 16 nights a month.

  113. spoiler says:

    böök¡je: Goddammit, it’s whippersnappers like you who just roll over and accept this crap that results in a damn burger meal costing $9 at McDonalds. A big mac and fries at McDonald’s should be no more than $5.LT knows it and I know it, as does anyone over 45 on this blog.And if people like you would stop paying $9 for it, it would be $5! Whippersnappers!

    Would be great if all the pro-Policy types were to confront the government on the policy that leads to this phenomenon, but when they see that doing so cuts into more Policy, that’s the one policy that will never change. Despite the fact the policy behind inflation is the primary source of income disparity, and particularly screws over the poor and anyone on a fixed income, like orphans, widows, retirees, disables, etc.

    But hey it’s more important the government have policies that allow it to spend willy-nilly and so we have $9 Big Macs that were $5 and will be $13. And the poor, the elderly, the orphaned, the disabled can go suck an egg… or get on a government program funded to fix the problems of the other government program by doling out welfare, which means higher taxes, thus further impoverishing people beyond the effects of inflation.

    Is it any wonder the State doesn’t include Economics in it’s State Education?

  114. Yegfoundation says:

    Bag of Pucks: I’m curious as to why you both think D is such a problem? Team posted 2 shutouts against San Jose and nearly a third.

    Glaring organizational need is scoring Ws imo.

    Particularly given the organizational depth at D that’s on its way (Nurse and Benning should be 2nd pairing contenders next season and they have Bear, Jones, Paigan, Reinhart, etc. riding the bus).

    Good questions, thanks for making me thinking deeper about my suggestions.

    To expand my post, in my opinion PC should consider trading prospects (regardless of the position) for proven performers, as this year’s Oilers team is showing me that they’re ready to win now. As an example, I’m not comfortable counting on Puljarvi (SP?) as a scoring winger for next year. Likewise, i’m not comfortable counting on any of Benning, Bear, Jones, Paigan, Reinhart for 2nd Paring RHD next year.

    As per LMHF#1 original post, this team is showing us they’re close to a SCF team, and PC should look to acquire the proven performers that will fill the roster where required. If you and I put together our top 8 list of SCF teams for the 2017/2018 season, the Oilers have to be on that list, correct? And if they’re on that list, then i don’t count on rookies to put me over the top, i look to add veterans.

  115. druds1 says:

    NSmitty,

    Yeah our team will just rock with a 37 year old crippled guy making 5 million playing as 2C or 3C….wow

  116. judgedrude says:

    wheatnoil:
    ****** SPAM ALERT ******
    Only tangentially related to this thread, I wrote a thing about Nuge and how great he was in first round, despite the lack of a point.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/04/nugent-hopkins-playoff-hero/

    ****** END SPAM ******

    This is awesome. Somebody should tweet it out to the Golden Nugge for encouragement (as well as block the website from any IP address in California).

  117. RPG says:

    wheatnoil,

    That’s some first class spam, thanks for sharing this.

  118. dustrock says:

    Just spitballing here on Chicago’s problems.

    We had previously speculated about Chiarelli wanting to grab someone like Seabrook.

    He has a $6.75m cap hit until 2023-24. Would you take him if Chicago retained half and took Fayne?

  119. pocession charge says:

    dustrock:
    Just spitballing here on Chicago’s problems.

    We had previously speculated about Chiarelli wanting to grab someone like Seabrook.

    He has a $6.75m cap hit until 2023-24.Would you take him if Chicago retained half and took Fayne?

    Man, even with half retained that is one ugly deal on the back half.

  120. dustrock says:

    pocession charge: Man, even with half retained that is one ugly deal on the back half.

    Yeah, if/when he falls off a cliff. I dunno man, Chicago might be hurtin pretty bad this offseason.

  121. NSmitty says:

    druds1:
    NSmitty,

    Yeah our team will just rock with a 37 year old crippled first ballot Hall Of Famer making anywhere between the veteran minimum (which was $575K in 16/17 according to puckreport.com) and 5 million playing as 2C or 3C or PP or on the wing….wow

    I had to fix that for ya.

    By the way, I don’t know if Thornton is even eligible to get the vet min. Could someone with a better grasp of the cap confirm or deny?

  122. Strapping Jocks says:

    Has anyone heard of any college players signing with the NHL today?

    Just some Foo for thought….

  123. 106 and 106 says:

    NSmitty,

    Your injury was really severe. I hope you recover well.

    Jumbo can’t have what you have; he needs his knee to push off and looking at some footage he was using lots of power for his stride.

    The devil is in the wording. “Torn?” Yes. How badly torn is the real question.

    We only know half. Super impressive though and I love the player.

    Also would be interesting what a “hairline” fracture on Karlsson’s foot means – these guys play through hell.

  124. Professor Q says:

    Jethro Tull: Medical staff can only advise, not sanction.Supreme executive power is derived from a mandate from Doug Wilson.He says, “Joe, you good to go?” and Joe says “sure.” Medical staff says “I would highly recommend you do not play.”Who wins and who should win?

    I guess. Like Werenski coming back in; Tortorella was actually pissed that he came back in because it was actually hindering his play and eventually lost them the series, or contributed heavily to it.

    Odd that he didn’t stop him, though. Or that more coaches don’t recognise that injured players are actually more of a hinderance to your team than a benefit. Plus in the process they’re making it worse.

    No matter how “tough” you think they are, they’re still being idiots to the highest degree.

    Seems like possibly either a shyte show in San Jose or whatever. Or overexaggeration to excuse their loss to Edmonton or some other reason?

    Hertl a broken foot for a month. Thronton a torn MCL and ACL and a “floating knee” for a month. Marleau with a broken hand for a month.

  125. Ducey says:

    Professor Q: I guess. Like Werenski coming back in; Tortorella was actually pissed that he came back in because it was actually hindering his play and eventually lost them the series, or contributed heavily to it.

    Odd that he didn’t stop him, though. Or that more coaches don’t recognise that injured players are actually more of a hinderance to your team than a benefit. Plus in the process they’re making it worse.

    No matter how “tough” you think they are, they’re still being idiots to the highest degree.

    Seems like possibly either a shyte show in San Jose or whatever. Or overexaggeration to excuse their loss to Edmonton or some other reason?

    Hertl a broken foot for a month. Thronton a torn MCL and ACL and a “floating knee” for a month. Marleau with a broken hand for a month.

    I think they are just coming clean, like most teams do after a series loss.

    I would not be surprised to find out that guys like Kassian, Maroon and Benning are dinged up. Kassian was a lot less rambunctious as the series went on. Maybe that was the reffing, but I would not be surprised if he is nursing a sore shoulder.

  126. Side says:

    Professor Q: I guess. Like Werenski coming back in; Tortorella was actually pissed that he came back in because it was actually hindering his play and eventually lost them the series, or contributed heavily to it.

    Odd that he didn’t stop him, though. Or that more coaches don’t recognise that injured players are actually more of a hinderance to your team than a benefit. Plus in the process they’re making it worse.

    No matter how “tough” you think they are, they’re still being idiots to the highest degree.

    Seems like possibly either a shyte show in San Jose or whatever. Or overexaggeration to excuse their loss to Edmonton or some other reason?

    Hertl a broken foot for a month. Thronton a torn MCL and ACL and a “floating knee” for a month. Marleau with a broken hand for a month.

    Maybe lots and lots of painkillers?

    Dull the pain until you can’t physically move anymore after all of your ligaments have snapped.

  127. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The only raises in the NHL in involve a cap increase. What a guy gets a paid now has only to do with where the cap is. It isn’t a normal business model because it’s a closed economy.

    The future starts when these contracts start getting signed. Connor and Leon are the least risky in terms of value, but it still matters especially if Connor wants top dollar, which I think he might not because he wants to win more than anything and money will be the least of his worries.

    There is incentive to want to be on the McDavid Oilers – the best chance at career glory there is in the league pretty much. If anybody values money more than that I’d trade them because selfish, it’s not like they aren’t being paid Uuge money either way. Team first, and every 500k off improves another roster spot.

  128. snfu says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s Playoff Death March Update:

    Death March would like to thank the following players who have predicted less than 4 Oilers playoff wins. They are:

    3 Wins – Ashley, Rich M, SNFU, North of 51, Russ, Edmonton Fan

    Happy to be wrong!
    4-2 the oil take the sucks!

  129. StixMalone says:

    Jumbo Joe, Seabrook? Have you guys lost your mind? Why would you even consider taking them? These guys are done and it’s time to set your sights higher. This is the McDavid era. We need speed and accurate finishers. Stop feeling sorry for these guys and look at getting the next generation of those “type” of players. They are out there just think outside of the box. Kinda like Chia did with Larsson and Maroon and Cags and Benning (maybe Foo) ………….

  130. Justthestatsman says:

    spoiler: Would be great if all the pro-Policy types were to confront the government on the policy that leads to this phenomenon, but when they see that doing so cuts into more Policy, that’s the one policy that will never change. Despite the fact the policy behind inflation is the primary source of income disparity, and particularly screws over the poor and anyone on a fixed income, like orphans, widows, retirees, disables, etc.

    But hey it’s more important the government have policies that allow it to spend willy-nilly and so we have $9 Big Macs that were $5 and will be $13.And the poor, the elderly, the orphaned, the disabled can go suck an egg… or get on a government program funded to fix the problems of the other government program by doling out welfare, which means higher taxes, thus further impoverishing people beyond the effects of inflation.

    Is it any wonder the State doesn’t include Economics in it’s State Education?

    No wonder at all. I’d suggest Home Education.

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