THE SUMMER AHEAD

It’s about time we had a look at the summer to come, and this quiet period between series gives us a bit of a breather. Tomorrow morning, I’ll have a lash at Peter Chiarelli’s Summer List, or as my friend Dean calls it “my copy/paste post of spring”. I hate you all.

EXPANSION DRAFT LIST

  • Goal: Cam Talbot
  • Defense: Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom
  • Forwards: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle, Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira
  • Ineligible: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning, Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula, Nick Ellis
  • Eligible: G Laurent Brossoit, D Mark Fayne, D Kris Russell, D Griffin Reinhart, D Jordan Oesterle, D Dillon Simpson, D David Musil, C Mark Letestu, C David Desharnais, L Benoit Pouliot, R Tyler Pitlick, R Iiro Pakarinen.

In looking at this list (and understanding how much of a factor the cap will be this summer), I think the Oilers are going to try (real hard) to offload Benoit Pouliot and buyout Mark Fayne. In fact, they need it. Pouliot is $4M and Fayne’s buyout would put $1.291M on the cap and save the team $2.33M in 2017-18 cap. They also have $1M from the Korpikoski buyout and an overage from bonuses the smart people tell me will be around $1M. All-in that’s about $3.291M of dead money on the cap, making the Pouliot exit even more important.

HOW WILL IT HAPPEN?

It has to be Vegas, and it might cost something of real value. If the Oilers can find a way for the Golden Knights to take Benoit Pouliot, it may also cost the 2018 second-round pick. The Oilers could also give up one of their young defensemen or some other prospect of interest to Vegas.

I’ve been running the numbers for next year, and if we take that $3.291M of dead cap as gospel, Pouliot has to move down the road. After that, we can talk about Eberle.

ESTIMATED ROSTER AND CAP

I used Cody Franson as an example, you can pick a $3M defender from this list is that doesn’t work for you. I think it’s fairly obvious that, even with the Pouliot exit and Fayne buyout, Peter Chiarelli will need to move a big contract.

The candidates (as I see it) are Jordan Eberle or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and the club could send Jesse Puljujarvi down and replace him with a $1M value deal on a veteran (which seems unlikely). Which one do you prefer?

The easiest answer is moving Leon to RW, dealing Jordan Eberle to the NY Islanders for Travis Hamonic, and running about $4M under the cap. Is that the right answer? We’ll talk tomorrow morning.

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91 Responses to "THE SUMMER AHEAD"

  1. megahurts says:

    So is Jesse Puljujarvi at 3.425M cap hit because you are expecting (hoping?) for him to hit all the bonuses?

  2. Centre of attention says:

    How about we find a way to smuggle Silfverberg out of Anaheim.

    Word is theres going to be somewhat of an auction of available players by Vegas, where Vegas acts as a middle man collecting assets trading picked players.

    If that kind of deal were to involve the Oilers, I try my hardest to grab the ‘Berg. He can absolutely rip the puck, and would slot in Letestu’s spot nicely, maybe letting Tes’ play second unit with Nuge and Eberle, making that unit better and giving us 2 legit units on the man advantage.

    Plus, Silfverberg on the forcheck with 97 at even strength would be great, could allow Draisaitl to be a C/W on Nuge’s line at even strength again improving depth and spreading out scoring.

    If Looch-Nuge-Drai works as a second line as I hope, then you can move Eberle out.

    Just my 2 cents.

  3. Lowetide says:

    megahurts:
    So is Jesse Puljujarvi at 3.425M cap hit because you are expecting (hoping?) for him to hit all the bonuses?

    At the beginning of the year you have to factor in the bonuses. Unlikely JP hits all of them but 97 and Leon ripped up the cap number this year and best (imo) to assume Puljujarvi could reach the numbers.

  4. Mr. T says:

    A Fayne buyout does not save $2.33M toward the cap. If he’s AHL, $950K does NOT count toward the cap, so his cap hit this year was $2.675M. Hence, if a buyout costs us ~$1.3M, it’s only ‘saving’ us $1.375M toward the cap. And, given that it would cost $1.2M toward the cap the following year (the year McDavid’s extension hits the books), it doesn’t, in the long run, save us anything at all (cap wise). Arguably, it makes our cap situation worse, as we have to deal with the buyout cost AND McDavid’s extension simultaneously.

    I think it’s better, if we can’t offload Fayne, to bite the bullet and bury him in the AHL. At least then he can be called up in the event that injuries hit hard – and given how lucky we were on that front this year, you have to think it’s at least a strong possibility next year!

  5. Centre of attention says:

    I mean even with the trade I suggested above, you could still try the 3 center method with 97 Drai and Nuge down the middle and have enough depth on the wings plus you get what ever you get for Eberle (probably a first rounder and a decent NHL ready prospect), and save money on the cap at the same time.

  6. Ribs says:

    Thinking about the expansion draft and it makes me wonder when the NHL will announce the folding of the coyotes. What do they have, a year? Two? I can see why an expansion draft might be preferable to a relocation, but it sure seems silly to go this long way around.

  7. russ99 says:

    IMO, not protecting Letestu makes it much harder to make that deal with Vegas, you have to give them no other inexpensive NHL-level options. Besides, Reinhart and Broissoit would be picked well before Khaira is.

    I love the guy, but should bring this up, Chicago has avoided cap hell for a number of seasons by letting other teams pay a premium for their lower-tier playoff heroes. So at what number does Kassian no longer make sense? Especially since every year in August there’s FAs available for around $1M that can play the same game, and Chia has done well at secondary/late FA bargain group.

    My big contract for a RD move is RNH for Faulk. I don’t think we have enough shooters at wing even with Puljujarvi to move Ebs, and defensive centers are available in FA.

  8. Diablo says:

    megahurts:
    So is Jesse Puljujarvi at 3.425M cap hit because you are expecting (hoping?) for him to hit all the bonuses?

    I think ‘planning for the worst’ is what LT is up to there (and by that I mean best case scenario naturally – if Jesse rips the cover off the ball next season, then nobody will be upset if he hits his bonuses).

    LT – if the choice is between paying Russel or Franson 3M next year – bet on the former.

    If Vegas is auctioning off potential RHD – then that wouldn’t that be the best way to fill Russel’s spot.
    What’s it going to cost? Picks probably, though we may see one of the Austins moved out in a pre-arranged deal where Vegas agrees to take Pouliot in expansion, followed afterwards by a trade of an Austin for a RHD + another forward. If we could snag a centre in a deal like that – say Jarnkrok – I’d be willing to send Eberle out.

    That’s not to say that I want to see Eberle off the team – but as LT says – some money’s gotta go once Connor’s ELC runs out. Better to be proactive about it. And its much easier to replace a scoring winger, than a 2-way centre like Nuge.

    A caution about these expansion draft tools though – the likes of Silfverberg will not be available by the time the real draft rolls around – those GMs are going to move those players to other teams with space on their protected list before then – even if its just for picks – it’d be a firing offence to lose a player of that significance for nothing.

  9. B.C.B says:

    LT,

    I am confused about why you think we have to run 4 million dollars under the cap?
    In your scenario, you are pay McDavid, Nurse, and Puljujarvi their bonuses, have added a three million dollar defender, and generously calculated the ‘dead’ cap space . . . all of this is prudent.

    But with all of this, they are still under your cap hit by roughly 2 million dollars and in 2016-17 the cap was $73 million. Why are you using 70.925 million? Don’t you think that the Players will want to increase the cap with their escalator clause? I know they hate escrow, but a flat cap hit would hurt all the FA this summer. Isn’t that why they used their escalator clause last year? (seriously, I was under this impression, but can’t find a creditable source with a quick google search)

    Or maybe you are talking in the future (to accommodate McDavid’s new contract)? Are you assuming that the cap is not going up in the foreseeable future??

  10. Diablo says:

    russ99:
    IMO, not protecting Letestu makes it much harder to make that deal with Vegas, you have to give them no other inexpensive NHL-level options. Besides, Reinhart and Broissoit would be picked well before Khaira is.

    I love the guy, but should bring this up, Chicago has avoided cap hell for a number of seasons by letting other teams pay a premium for their lower-tier playoff heroes. So at what number does Kassian no longer make sense? Especially since every year in August there’s FAs available for around $1M that can play the same game, and Chia has done well at secondary/late FA bargain group.

    Max 2 million – he has health issues that while under control at the moment are never going to be cured. No other GM is going to take a risk on him beyond that figure.

  11. russ99 says:

    Ribs,

    If we had anyone else as Commissioner I’d be right there too.

    Bettman would do anything to keep the Coyotes there.

    IMO, folding them is much more valuable than relocation to the NHL, with. Vegas’ expansion fees setting a very high price tag for new teams.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Russ: Oilers can’t protect Letestu unless they add a veteran who qualifies. He and Pouliot are it.
    Diablo: Russell is going to make way more imo.
    BCB: I ran a flat cap, and the $4M listed as ‘room’ comes from Franson signing at $3M. Oilers may choose to go higher, and add a 3C. That’s for tomorrow’s post.

  13. Diablo says:

    B.C.B:

    Or maybe you are talking in the future (to accommodate McDavid’s new contract)? Are you assuming that the cap is not going up in the foreseeable future??

    As far as I understand, the money obtained from expansion is not considered ‘league revenue’, right?
    If that’s the case, then its pretty unlikely that the cap goes up more than the inflation in Conner’s next contract, as there aren’t many new revenue sources for the league to exploit, on top of a weak Canadian dollar.

    We can roll with all of the Austins for one more year, but the year after it’ll be salary cap hell – it might be better to be proactive and trade one this summer (or in season), before Chia’s hand is forced and he has to give one away for 50 cents on the dollar.

  14. Diablo says:

    Lowetide:

    Diablo: Russell is going to make way more imo.

    That’s probably true – the verbal seems to be in the media that he is now a genuine top 4 D.

  15. russ99 says:

    Diablo: Max 2 million – he has health issues that while under control at the moment are never going to be cured. No other GM is going to take a risk on him beyond that figure.

    Good point, maybe he’ll take a discount to stay, since we gave him a chance to come back to this level.

  16. Diablo says:

    russ99:
    Ribs,

    If we had anyone else as Commissioner I’d be right there too.

    Bettman would do anything to keep the Coyotes there.

    IMO, folding them is much more valuable than relocation to the NHL, with. Vegas’ expansion fees setting a very high price tag for new teams.

    Totally agree – the NHL has already kept them afloat once. No way they’re going to let them sink now.

  17. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    Whats your take on my Silfverberg shenanigans?

    Too far fetched to fathom?

  18. Diablo says:

    russ99: Good point, maybe he’ll take a discount to stay, since we gave him a chance to come back to this level.

    He has the trust of his coach, a role that allows him to be a significant contributor to a contending team and good supports in place to keep him healthy – those things have value. If he has an agent that cares more about the player than the fees, they will come to the table with a reasonable ask.

  19. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Diablo: As far as I understand, the money obtained from expansion is not considered ‘league revenue’, right?
    If that’s the case, then its pretty unlikely that the cap goes up more than the inflation in Conner’s next contract, as there aren’t many new revenue sources for the league to exploit, on top of a weak Canadian dollar.

    We can roll with all of the Austins for one more year, but the year after it’ll be salary cap hell – it might be better to be proactive and trade one this summer (or in season), before Chia’s hand is forced and he has to give one away for 50 cents on the dollar.

    Another factor is that for a player earning their cap hit, more term increases their value to a buyer. Deadline deals will bring the least back. Summer deals for high value players. Nuge and Eberle IF they are going should be traded sooner rather than later.

    If some unwanted players can be cleared it will free up cap. Fayne is a right shot D that is still a helpful player and not overly expensive. Given he is unwanted take a third or something and clear the salary, etc.

    I don’t see why somebody wouldn’t have a place, such as the Canucks or Laughs who are hurting for competent D.

  20. OF17 says:

    Was tossing ideas to myself earlier, and I wonder if Eberle for Brock Nelson would make sense. Tavares gets his winger and we get a 40 point 3C and cap room.

    19-97-42
    17-93-29
    36-BN-98
    54-55-44

    Combined with Pouliot + asset to Vegas, I would be tempted to use that cap room on Shattenkirk. We’d essentially have to commit to 97/93/29/17 getting it done as big-ticket items up front with only inexpensive help, and we’d have to hope Nurse was okay with a bridge until Sekera is off the books, but gaining $7M+ in cap space between the Eberle and Pouliot deals would give us just enough room to make it work for a time. Couldn’t give Shattenkirk any more than a partial NMC.

  21. jake70 says:

    A right handed shot for the top line…from within or from outside the organization……..mentioned this before but McDavid works his plays mostly from the R side of the offensive zone (if looking in at oppo goalie) that sees his passes go from right to left……….need a trigger man on the L side for him.

  22. slopitch says:

    I think Eberle is gone. You can’t pay a guy 6 million for 4 million worth of offense. That and Chai likes his big ringers. I like Ebs and all. Just my prediction.

    Also LT, why not do a post per day comparing the oil at F/D/G to the ducks. I know the math doesn’t give you enough days so maybe F in the morn, D/G at the eve. I’m keen to see the Chai post but my mind is on the playoffs. Or do what you want, I’ll read it anyways 🙂

  23. jake70 says:

    If KLefbom gives you what he did this year as his baselne, and stays healthy……….what a contract that is.

  24. Centre of attention says:

    Soooo I’m hearing that the US is preparing to evacuate some 200,000+ American citizens (pretty much all non essential american civilians) from South Korea.

    Hard to say that things are going well at the negotiating table, now is it.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lowetide,

    Whats your take on my Silfverberg shenanigans?

    Too far fetched to fathom?

    I think the NHL made a big mistake by not freezing rosters at the end of the regular season. I expect the Ducks will make room, with Silfverberg ending up on their protected list. A trade involving a team out east for one of the Ducks less valuable players seems more likely.

  26. OF17 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lowetide,

    Whats your take on my Silfverberg shenanigans?

    Too far fetched to fathom?

    Silfverberg would be a fantastic add. Would fit equally well with either McDavid or Nuge. Lucic-Nuge-Silfverberg would be one of the best trios of giant killers in the game.

    “I got good news and bad. Good news is you don’t have to face McDavid/Draisaitl. Bad news is your matchup is even more annoying.”

  27. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: I think the NHL made a big mistake by not freezing rosters at the end of the regular season. I expect the Ducks will make room, with Silfverberg ending up on their protected list. A trade involving a team out east for one of the Ducks less valuable players seems more likely.

    Agree its a bit of a stretch of the imagination to think it’s possible, I really would like it to happen though.

    he would fit this roster and the current needs like a glove.

    Would also give cover for a rookie Puljujarvi who is still maybe not quite ready for prime time.

  28. Lowetide says:

    slopitch:
    I think Eberle is gone. You can’t pay a guy 6 million for 4 million worth of offense. That and Chai likes his big ringers. I like Ebs and all. Just my prediction.

    Also LT, why not do a post per day comparing the oil at F/D/G to the ducks. I know the math doesn’t give you enough days so maybe F in the morn, D/G at the eve. I’m keen to see the Chai post but my mind is on the playoffs. Or do what you want, I’ll read it anyways 🙂

    I began working on it, but naturalstattrick is a mess and I honestly can’t figure it out. My thing is to deliver good information that I understand. I’m increasingly wary of naturalstattrick and especially concerned since their numbers don’t seem to jive.

  29. The Hermit says:

    Centre of attention: Soooo I’m hearing that the US is preparing to evacuate some 200,000+ American citizens (pretty much all non essential american civilians) from South Korea.
    Hard to say that things are going well at the negotiating table, now is it.

    There are no common interests between USA and the DPRK at this time.

  30. OF17 says:

    Lowetide: I began working on it, but naturalstattrick is a mess and I honestly can’t figure it out. My thing is to deliver good information that I understand. I’m increasingly wary of naturalstattrick and especially concerned since their numbers don’t seem to jive.

    Which metrics specifically have you found to be awry there?

  31. Woogie63 says:

    VGK select,

    Pouliot and second rounder is a pretty easy solution.

    Letestu straight up is a minimal impact to next year’s team.

    Reinhart is our 8/9th best dman, cost a lot to procure but minimal impact on next years team.

    This draft is not going to hurt us, and there lots better players that could end up in play that we could get.

  32. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT!

    – Picking up on what some are alluding to: we all love this blog. For the last 10 years we are all used to the same song and dance at the end of the year (crap-team, poor management, players leaving, and just being glum)

    – Your awesome structure to get us through the dread and into next season: the RE series, draft analysis, trade ideas, next year projections, what’s wrong with management, etc. and all the ensuing discussions made us all better fans IMO

    – I’m not sure what I’m saying other than PLAYOFFS BABY, and given that we will be doing a lot of that for the next 10 years, maybe revamping to reflect that?

    – Love this blog LT: just rambling by me, carry on….

  33. Professor Q says:

    Diablo: Totally agree – the NHL has already kept them afloat once. No way they’re going to let them sink now.

    Technically twice, non?

  34. godot10 says:

    Silverberg is NOT going to shake loose. The Ducks will trade one of Fowler or Vatanen for a forward or a young D not in need of protection.

    Protected List:

    Gibson

    Lindholm, Manson Bieksa(they may buy him out, or he may agree to be left unprotected…if so then Fowler or Vatanen)

    Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Rakell, Silverberg, Cogliano, forward acquired for Fowler or Vatanen.

    D not requiring protection according to CapFriendly…Theodore, Jacob Larsson, Montour.

    There are teams in a much worse predicament.

  35. Lowetide says:

    OF17: Which metrics specifically have you found to be awry there?

    On Sunday I began to make a list of interesting notes for display. Things like McDavid’s Corsi 5×5, DFF 5×5, and I wanted McDavid’s playoff Corsi for against Vlasic. It is NOT easily found nor read, so if I can’t trust the number I can’t pass it along.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – I’m not sure what I’m saying other than PLAYOFFS BABY, and given that we will be doing a lot of that for the next 10 years, maybe revamping to reflect that?

    I think we’ll have plenty of time to cover the Ducks series, and will in fact have stats on the Wednesday GDT. In the meantime I would highly recommend
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2017/4/22/15392356/the-secret-weapon-ryan-nugent-hopkins

    a terrific look at the Nuge from the last series. Over here, you can expect plenty of RE, draft coverage and playoffs, too. I hope you drop by and take part, but completely understand if the urge to read playoff coverage takes you to other spots on the oilogosphere. There are SO MANY great blogs.

  37. sumaclab says:

    So many options. We will see in a month.

  38. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: I think we’ll have plenty of time to cover the Ducks series, and will in fact have stats on the Wednesday GDT. In the meantime I would highly recommend
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2017/4/22/15392356/the-secret-weapon-ryan-nugent-hopkins

    a terrific look at the Nuge from the last series. Over here, you can expect plenty of RE, draft coverage and playoffs, too. I hope you dropby and take part, but completely understand if the urge to read playoff coverage takes you to other spots on the oilogosphere. There are SO MANY great blogs.

    – yeah sorry LT: my post didn’t come across right. Your the best. I didn’t want you to read it any other way and I love the re and all that stuff. It was more an observation that finally we have other stuff to cheer about

    – sorry again my post didn’t work. Good thing I don’t write a blog !

  39. farmcat says:

    I understand the need to make cap space, but shouldn’t lucic be the $6m guy to go. I know it would never happen but the best time to get rid of that contract is when he still has value. Eventually his boat anchor contract is going to be included as a cap problem in these articles. The thing is we won’t be able to get rid of it, he has a NTC/NMC, and because of the bonuses in his contract he can’t be bought out. Nuge and Ebs will sign better contracts when theirs is up, but what will Lucic be in 6 years. Bergevin could be desperate enough to take lucic given the habs struggles. It wouldn’t matter much what we get in return other than Chia’s pride. But we are talking about a guy who has traded some of the league’s best young players.

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10:
    Silverberg is NOT going to shake loose.The Ducks will trade one of Fowler or Vatanen for a forward or a young D not in need of protection.

    Protected List:

    Gibson

    Lindholm, Manson Bieksa(they may buy him out, or he may agree to be left unprotected…if so then Fowler or Vatanen)

    Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Rakell, Silverberg, Cogliano, forward acquired for Fowler or Vatanen.

    D not requiring protection according to CapFriendly…Theodore, Jacob Larsson, Montour.

    There are teams in a much worse predicament.

    I’ve heard Bieksa already agreed to waive his NMC and be exposed.

    He knows VGK isn’t going to take him or get requests from other teams to pick him in order to trade him.

    Also heard Vatanen is the one they’re shopping.

  41. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – yeah sorry LT: my post didn’t come across right. Your the best. I didn’t want you to read it any other way and I love the re and all that stuff. It was more an observation that finally we have other stuff to cheer about

    – sorry again my post didn’t work. Good thing I don’t write a blog !

    haha I wasn’t offended, I just don’t have anything to say about it. 🙂 And if anyone can tell me what Connor McDavid’s Corsi for against Marc-Edouard Vlasic is I promise to publish:

    http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20162017&playerid=8478402&sit=5v5&stype=3&rate=&v=o

  42. geowal says:

    Great job doing what you’re doing LT. There’s plenty of insider playoff coverage, but your ability to balance the past (RE), current (GDBs), and future (draft) is one of many things what makes this place great.

  43. Android says:

    Lowetide,

    The 47.06% CF with Vlasic seems plausible to me.

    McDavid supposedly being 83.78% away from Vlasic, and Vlasic being 27.03% away from McDavid seems a little off though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  44. Diablo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’ve heard Bieksa already agreed to waive his NMC and be exposed.

    He knows VGK isn’t going to take him or get requests from other teams to pick him in order to trade him.

    Also heard Vatanen is the one they’re shopping.

    That wouldn’t surprise at all. I think there will be some other vets with no movement clauses who agree to waive them as well.

    I could also see Anaheim and Nashville both making a pitch for Duchene before the expansion draft as well – both teams could offer up D and forwards prospects + picks to make it happen, and it would make their protected list a lot less complicated.

  45. Diablo says:

    Professor Q: Technically twice, non?

    Lol yup.

  46. Android says:

    Lowetide,

    For comparison, I checked the numbers the other way around.

    http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20162017&playerid=8471709&sit=5v5&stype=3&rate=&v=o

    I seriously doubt Vlasic actually had a CF% of 0 away from McDavid.

  47. Diablo says:

    Woogie63:
    VGK select,

    Pouliot and second rounder is a pretty easy solution.

    Letestu straight up is a minimal impact to next year’s team.

    Reinhart is our 8/9th best dman, cost a lot to procure but minimal impact on next years team.

    This draft is not going to hurt us, and there lots better players that could end up in play that we couldget.

    I’d want to protect Letestu – its hard and expensive to find competent centres who can PK and win face-offs. They also tend to make a lot more money. He’s a good soldier who our coach has found many positive uses for, and there is no replacement waiting in the wings if we lose him in expansion.

  48. Jethro Tull says:

    Diablo: I’d want to protect Letestu – its hard and expensive to find competent centres who can PK and win face-offs. They also tend to make a lot more money. He’s a good soldier who our coach has found many positive uses for, and there is no replacement waiting in the wings if we lose him in expansion.

    Remember when we used to say that these players were a dime a dozen and MacT could find them in his sleep? Good times.

  49. Lowetide says:

    Android:
    Lowetide,

    For comparison, I checked the numbers the other way around.

    http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20162017&playerid=8471709&sit=5v5&stype=3&rate=&v=o

    I seriously doubt Vlasic actually had a CF% of 0 away from McDavid.

    That’s my point. I mean, I use Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and DFF, good information. I desperately want the NST stuff to be correct, but it has some question marks.

  50. who says:

    My dream scenario would be Vegas choosing Poo and trading Eberle for Hamonic.
    My question is what would the adds have to be to make them both happen. You have suggested adding the 2018 2nd to Poo and I think I might be okay with that.
    The Eberle add would be more difficult. I would suggest Benning/ Bear but I don’t know if the Islanders would bite. I really don’t see Tavares re signing and if so you would probably have a better chance with picks and prospects. I think I would have anyone but JP on the table.

  51. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide: haha I wasn’t offended, I just don’t have anything to say about it. And if anyone can tell me what Connor McDavid’s Corsi for against Marc-Edouard Vlasic is I promise to publish:

    http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20162017&playerid=8478402&sit=5v5&stype=3&rate=&v=o

    I don’t think it’s possible in a certain way without the NHL tracking players with tracking.

  52. Thorin says:

    Centre of attention:
    Soooo I’m hearing that the US is preparing to evacuate some 200,000+ American citizens (pretty much all non essential american civilians) from South Korea.

    Hard to say that things are going well at the negotiating table, now is it.

    US forces in South Korea regularly practice mass evacuations of American civilians. You’re probably talking about the mass evac exercise planned for June: http://time.com/4751933/south-korea-evacuation-exercise-military/

  53. Android says:

    Lowetide,

    Whoops, I think I took the question more seriously than intended. 😬

    Hopefully they can fix the problems, it would be a great resource if they do.

  54. Ryan says:

    Diablo: I’d want to protect Letestu – its hard and expensive to find competent centres who can PK and win face-offs. They also tend to make a lot more money. He’s a good soldier who our coach has found many positive uses for, and there is no replacement waiting in the wings if we lose him in expansion.

    Letestu’s had a great season, but he’s a thousand years old.

    Aging is not kind to non-elite NHL players.

  55. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: haha I wasn’t offended, I just don’t have anything to say about it. 🙂 And if anyone can tell me what Connor McDavid’s Corsi for against Marc-Edouard Vlasic is I promise to publish:

    http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20162017&playerid=8478402&sit=5v5&stype=3&rate=&v=o

    I was looking at these same numbers for a piece I was writing earlier today & gave it up in frustration cuz they didn’t make sense.

    Lowetide: I think we’ll have plenty of time to cover the Ducks series, and will in fact have stats on the Wednesday GDT. In the meantime I would highly recommend
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2017/4/22/15392356/the-secret-weapon-ryan-nugent-hopkins

    a terrific look at the Nuge from the last series. Over here, you can expect plenty of RE, draft coverage and playoffs, too. I hope you dropby and take part, but completely understand if the urge to read playoff coverage takes you to other spots on the oilogosphere. There are SO MANY great blogs.

    Lowetide:
    Here’s another excellent piece
    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/04/nugent-hopkins-playoff-hero/

    I also read both these posts earlier today (from two contributors I greatly respect) & found myself nodding my head both in approval of their work & in relief that we at CoH weren’t completely out to lunch in having Nuge our highest rated forward in the series despite scoring 0 points.

  56. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT, does your cap calculation include all the bonus money owed to McDavid and Drai? Understood we are going to be over a bit and have to work with a slightly smaller cap number.

  57. Doug McLachlan says:

    Not a huge fan of buyouts but Fayne looks reasonable. CapFriendly.com has the calculation a little different from yours.

    They have it as 2/3 of his remaining salary ($3.5M as opposed to his cap hit $3.625M) which would mean two years of $1.166667M. Small difference but could be helpful.

  58. Diablo says:

    Ryan: Letestu’s had a great season, but he’s a thousand years old.

    Aging is not kind to non-elite NHL players.

    He’s 32 – if that’s old then I’m ancient lol.
    I think he probably has one more good year left – I’d feel better about leaving him exposed if we had an option to replace him. There’s nothing but expensive regrets in free agency, and Khaira needs a full season before we can count on him. DD is not a long term answer.
    Tmac loves his centres – letestu will be protected.

  59. PunjabiOil says:

    I don’t think it makes sense to buyout Fayne. They will need cap space in the McDavid next contract era.

    Retain salary (up to 50%) if necessary. There isn’t a market for Fayne at 1.75M?

    Pouliot will be more difficult to get rid of, but he can still add value to the team. His shot suppression rates 4 on 5 are excellent and his offensive totals this year may be an outlier rather than a trend.

    Offering a draft pick may be necessary to get rid of these contracts, but that’s okay. This team is in a win now mode and have to look at all options.

  60. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    LT, does your cap calculation include all the bonus money owed to McDavid and Drai?Understood we are going to be over a bit and have to work with a slightly smaller cap number.

    Yes, $1M for overage and $1M for Lennart Petrell 2.0.

  61. --hudson-- says:

    Diablo: He’s 32 – if that’s old then I’m ancient lol.
    I think he probably has one more good year left – I’d feel better about leaving him exposed if we had an option to replace him. There’s nothing but expensive regrets in free agency, and Khaira needs a full season before we can count on him. DD is not a long term answer.
    Tmac loves his centres – letestu will be protected.

    What role would you expect Letestu to play in Vegas?

    Trying to think from GMGM’s point of view, I imagine he would see Letestu as a 3rd or 4th line center and no long term upside since he is 32 already with only 1 year left on his contract. Pouliot or Reinhart would provide more years of control. However neither of those guys will blow his doors off. It would be worth exploring what is the best prospect/draft pick he could get from the Oilers for taking on some of the cap problems.

    From the Oilers point of view, I’d love to see Letestu back for next year, then slowly work a guy like Spencer Foo in as a replacement.

  62. wheatnoil says:

    Android:
    Lowetide,

    The 47.06% CF with Vlasic seems plausible to me.

    McDavid supposedly being 83.78% away from Vlasic, and Vlasic being 27.03% away from McDavid seems a little off though. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

    (Note, I edited this post for clarity and rewrote most of it)

    I had this difficulty doing my piece. After looking through it for some time, it appears the “McDavid away from Vlasic” column is off. That column is off for every player that I looked at. There’s something screwy in the calculation. That’s why I didn’t look at the “Nugent-Hopkins Without” numbers in my post on him.

    So when you look at the McDavid Opposition tab in Natural Stat Trick, and you look at Vlasic’s row, you see Vlasic’s CF vs McDavid. You also see Vlasic’s CF away from McDavid. Those two cells are correct. The one in the middle (McDavid away from Vlasic) is incorrect. You can get the correct number by calculating manually (subtracting the corsi numbers there from McDavid’s total 5×5 corsi). I think I see where the error is in the Natural Stat Trick formula actually. They’re just subtracting the wrong numbers.

    The Vlasic away being 27% appears to be accurate. That’s just a product of small sample size. Vlasic only played 27 minutes away from McDavid and happened to get crushed in them. I calculated that column manually to confirm.

    So, to clarify,
    McDavid vs Vlasic: 52.9% CF
    McDavid away from Vlasic: 56.8% CF (21 shot attempts for, 16 against in 19 minutes)

    Vlasic vs McDavid: 47.1% CF
    Vlasic away from McDavid: 27.0% CF (10 shot attempts for, 27 against in 26 minutes)

    Funny things happen in small sample sizes.

  63. BONE207 says:

    The easiest answer is moving Leon to RW, dealing Jordan Eberle to the NY Islanders for Travis Hamonic, and running about $4M under the cap. Is that the right answer?

    What a deal LT. Garth or whoever takes over for him will never willingly do this unless they’ve not watched their cross river rivals do this last summer. Mike Milbury has left the building…hasn’t he???

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide,

    Manually adding up each game from Natural Stat trick gives me this:

    97 vs Vlasic
    5v5: 95-79= 54.6%

    All EV 97-84=53.6%

    Neither match McDavid’s opposition page at NST.

    I trust his single game results more than his aggregate and I trust I added these up correctly.

    5v5 the games were:
    14-6
    11-3
    16-22
    9-15
    33-18
    12-15

  65. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: haha I wasn’t offended, I just don’t have anything to say about it. And if anyone can tell me what Connor McDavid’s Corsi for against Marc-Edouard Vlasic is I promise to publish:

    http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20162017&playerid=8478402&sit=5v5&stype=3&rate=&v=o

    According to the NHL.com, CMD’s CF–CA for the series is 112–96. According to NST 97 had 15 CF while the other two left side Dmen were on the ice… Dillon and Martin. Looking at their D-pairing’s numbers, this looks about right.

    112-15 leaves 97 CF when against Vlasic.

    CMD allowed 23 shot attempts against Dillon/Martin… 96-23 leaves 73 CA when against Vlasic.

    97 / (97 + 73) is 57.1 CF%. Whole series 112/ (112+96) is 53.8%. 15/38 is 39.5 CF% away fr Vlasic, which is born out by the 1-16 CF-CA events when on against Dillon.

    It’ll be out by a shot or two, but that should be close, assuming the other numbers are correct.

    Checked NHL’s numbers against NST’s and NST has 111 CF for CMD in their game reports. Difference might be the empty net goal? Still, almost identical. And 96 CA, which is identical.

  66. theres oil in virginia says:

    spoiler: According to the NHL.com, CMD’s CF–CA for the series is 112–96.According to NST 97 had 15 CF while the other two left side Dmen were on the ice… Dillon and Martin.Looking at their D-pairing’s numbers, this looks about right.

    112-15 leaves 97 CF when against Vlasic.

    CMD allowed 23 shot attempts against Dillon/Martin… 96-23 leaves 73 CA when against Vlasic.

    97 / (97 + 73) is 57.1 CF%.Whole series 112/ (112+96) is 53.8%.15/38 is 39.5 CF% away fr Vlasic, which is born out by the 1-16 CF-CA events when on against Dillon.

    It’ll be out by a shot or two, but that should be close, assuming the other numbers are correct.

    Checked NHL’s numbers against NST’s and NST has 111 CF for CMD in their game reports. Difference might be the empty net goal?Still, almost identical.And 96 CA, which is identical.

    Have you factored in Big Mac inflation?

  67. spoiler says:

    wheatnoil: McDavid away from Vlasic: 56.8% CF (21 shot attempts for, 16 against in 19 minutes)

    This doesn’t look right, unless the numbers for the other Dmen are wrong. That is, 1-16 against Dillon alone would mean 0 CA when up against the other pairing Dmen… which they aren’t.

  68. spoiler says:

    theres oil in virginia: Have you factored in Big Mac inflation?

    Back when I was a kid, 10 was a good Corsi For. Now we’re like 5 times the number!

    #EndtheFed

  69. russ99 says:

    –hudson–: What role would you expect Letestu to play in Vegas?

    Trying to think from GMGM’s point of view, I imagine he would see Letestu as a 3rd or 4th line center and no long term upside since he is 32 already with only 1 year left on his contract.Pouliot or Reinhart would provide more years of control.However neither of those guys will blow his doors off.It would be worth exploring what is the best prospect/draft pick he could get from the Oilers for taking on some of the cap problems.

    From the Oilers point of view, I’d love to see Letestu back for next year, then slowly work a guy like Spencer Foo in as a replacement.

    McPhee has mentioned two things in regards to his roster:

    Tough to play against, and not taking other teams’ salary problems.

    Letestu gives him a reliable NHL 3rd line center, with PK and a righty PP shot, for a reasonable number for one year. He’s going to have a lot of young players, and Letestu could be a calming influence.

    He’ll have a lot better defensemen to pick from, and Reinhart still has footspeed issues and has a career track so far similar to Cam Barker. Plus Chiarelli owns that trade good or bad old boys club, so he may posture to keep him from being selected.

    I really don’t think Pouliot to Vegas is going to happen, he’s had two poor years on a team where everyone else has bought into what the coach wants, nobody seems to want to trade for him (and the Oilers have tried) and has 2 years left at $4M We’d need to send significant assets, like a future first and a decent prospect or two.

    GMs don’t usually do us a solid, other than that one time with Sather.

  70. who says:

    russ99: McPhee has mentioned two things in regards to his roster:

    Tough to play against, and not taking other teams’ salary problems.

    Letestu gives him a reliable NHL 3rd line center, with PK and a righty PP shot, for a reasonable number for one year. He’s going to have a lot of young players, and Letestu could be a calming influence.

    He’ll have a lot of better defensemen to pick from, and Reinhart still has footspeed issues and has a career track so far similar to Cam Barker. Plus Chiarelli owns that trade good or bad, so he may posture to keep him from being selected.

    I really don’t think Pouliot to Vegas is going to happen, he’s had two poor years on a team where everyone else has bought into what the coach wants and has 2 years left at $4M We’d need to send significant assets, like a future first and a decent prospect or two.

    GMs don’t usually do us a solid, other than that one time with Sather.

    I think you are over rating Letestu a bit here. He is a 32 year old 4th line center with one year left on his contract. Not exactly a building block for an expansion team.
    I think the dilemma for Vegas is that the pickings in Edmonton are pretty slim. I would pick Reinhart or Pitlick. That is why a second rounder might entice them to take Poo. Would you rather have Poo and a second rounder or Letestu.

  71. wheatnoil says:

    You know, we can check all this by asking G to run the numbers.

  72. tcho says:

    I must have Chachi’d somewhere, but here’s my understanding of the situation (all #s courtesy of capfriendly):

    Current Cap Space: $4.46m
    Performance bonuses (Connor + Leon): $5.325m (2.85 + 2.475)
    LTiR: $3.16m

    My understanding is that the LTIR can be used against any cap overages. This should give us more than enough room, no?

  73. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Lowetide,

    Manually adding up each game from Natural Stat trick gives me this:

    97 vs Vlasic
    5v5: 95-79= 54.6%

    All EV 97-84=53.6%

    Neither match McDavid’s opposition page at NST.

    I trust his single game results more than his aggregate and I trust I added these up correctly.

    5v5 the games were:
    14-6
    11-3
    16-22
    9-15
    33-18
    12-15

    Hmmmm… the individual games have him at 5 more corsi for events (95 vs 90) and 1 less corsi against (79 vs 80).

    Odd.

    Seriously, this calls for G Money.

  74. Lowetide says:

    wheatnoil: Hmmmm… the individual games have him at 5 more corsi for events (95 vs 90) and 1 less corsi against (79 vs 80).

    Odd.

    Seriously, this calls for G Money.

    It’s weird, right? Thanks to all who looked into it, I feel better about not proceeding. NST is a fine resource, but these numbers seem off.

  75. season not played says:

    wheatnoil: Hmmmm… the individual games have him at 5 more corsi for events (95 vs 90) and 1 less corsi against (79 vs 80).

    Odd.

    Seriously, this calls for G Money.

    or a calculator

  76. season not played says:

    so funny listening to the morning show guys make fun of people still against the trade.

    LT, do they give you a hard time around the office?

  77. Pouzar says:

    I must be the only person on this board who wants an upgrade on Letestu.
    Then again, I’m the only one who drinks Lucky.

  78. Pouzar says:

    spoiler: Back when I was a kid, 10 was a good Corsi For.Now we’re like 5 times the number!

    #EndtheFed

    LOL

    #bitcoin

  79. BONE207 says:

    Pouzar:
    I must be the only person on this board who wants an upgrade on Letestu.
    Then again, I’m the only one who drinks Lucky.

    Apparently the Stat trick people do too. Along with Golden Wedding…

  80. Pouzar says:

    Rest easy folks.

    Out: Gord Dwyer, Eric Furlatt, Trevor Hanson, Marc Joannette, Chris Lee, Tim Peel, Brian Pochmara, and Ian Walsh

  81. GCW_69 says:

    Given the price paid to get him, its pretty bad that the oilers would rather not lose Kassian than Reinhart.

    God love Kassian for bringing the right kind of crazy to the Sharks series, but he should be fairly easily replaceable. Young NHL capable defenders are not easily found.

    So, of you have the expansion list right, wow, what a fuck up that trade was.

  82. LMHF#1 says:

    Pouzar:
    Rest easy folks.

    Out: Gord Dwyer, Eric Furlatt, Trevor Hanson, Marc Joannette, Chris Lee, Tim Peel, Brian Pochmara, and Ian Walsh

    Weren’t they 7-0 with Chris Lee reffing this year?

  83. JDI Хоккей says:

    Pouzar,

    So Fingerwag O’Hollerin is still working?

  84. LMHF#1 says:

    GCW_69:
    Young NHL capable defenders are not easily found.

    So, of you have the expansion list right, wow, what a fuck up that trade was.

    Clearly. Chiarelli paid 2 high picks and didn’t get one.

    That trade was horrible. That’s been pretty well the consensus for some time now.

  85. Chachi says:

    Pouzar:
    Rest easy folks.

    Out: Gord Dwyer, Eric Furlatt, Trevor Hanson, Marc Joannette, Chris Lee, Tim Peel, Brian Pochmara, and Ian Walsh

    That is 3 of the 4 refs from games 1 & 2 gone. Unbelievably the NHL saw the shit show that was the refereeing in game 4 and thought, yeah that’s the good stuff!

  86. Pouzar says:

    LMHF#1: Weren’t they 7-0 with Chris Lee reffing this year?

    What Chachi said.

  87. Pouzar says:

    JDI Хоккей:
    Pouzar,

    So Fingerwag O’Hollerin is still working?

    Don’t talk to me!

  88. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pouzar:
    I must be the only person on this board who wants an upgrade on Letestu.
    Then again, I’m the only one who drinks Lucky.

    I’d drink that. I also would upgrade any player I could. For me skating is key and Letestu isn’t quick enough.

  89. Pouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’d drink that. I also would upgrade any player I could. For me skating is key and Letestu isn’t quick enough.

    Thx buddy. I have a Lucky on chill waiting for ya.

  90. Lowetide says:

    season not played:
    so funny listening to the morning show guys make fun of people still against the trade.

    LT, do they give you a hard time around the office?

    Not at all. Radio always overplays things. For instance, Woodguy actually has great taste in music! 🙂

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