LOOSE CHANGE

The Edmonton Oilers are getting ready to face the Anaheim Ducks this week, and at this point I see this team winning the series (in seven games). When the playoffs started, I suggested 6-6 as a playoff record (4-2SJS, 2-4 ANA), but the team showed more depth than expected and  maybe there’s hockey in this city past May long. I still believe balance has not yet been achieved, but Peter Chiarelli’s moves since arrival have complemented Connor McDavid’s arrival and we are miles down the road from expectation. How far can this thing go? Don’t take any long trips until July.

LINES AGAINST SAN JOSE SHARKS

  • Corsica.hockey has three lines from the initial series playing enough to show up with numbers.
  • The Nuge line played 64 minutes and posted a stunning Corsi for 5×5. RNH had 17 shots, but is the only member of the line without a point. If Nuge gets 17 shots every series this spring, the goals will come.
  • The two McDavid lines are about the same, but I think we may see Maroon back on the top line during the Anaheim series. He went 5, 0-5-5 against the Ducks this season, playing 87 minutes in those games. Drake Caggiula played in four games (1-0-1) and totaled 48:43 in icetime.

PAIRINGS AGAINST THE SAN JOSE SHARKS

  • Klefbom-Larsson had a fabulous series, both men helping at both ends of the ice. Klefbom’s mobility, Larsson edge and battle helped defensively. Klefbom’s rocket shot tied Game 5 late and Larsson’s impressive pass got the scoring started in Game 6. Great Corsi, great Fenwick, I liked their game against SJS. We worry about Klefbom but early word has him ready for Game 1 against Anaheim.
  • Sekera-Russell were under 50 percent in possession and I think a lot of the trouble came from ineffective passing and lack of creativity in exits. I don’t have a cure for it. The duo normally gets by on Sekera’s guile but the Sharks seemed to be getting in the way quite a bit.
  • Nurse-Benning have had some good moments and some chaotic sorties defended, and that’s exactly what we should expect. I like Nurse’s mobility, and Benning’s too. Both men can pass and transport, both men have lapses defensively that we associate with you and inexperience. I’m a big believer in getting young players experience and this playoff series is providing it for these two men.
  • Cam Talbot has a .927SP through one series, ranking him No. 7 in the NHL. He is also No. 9 in even-strength SP.

One of the players I wonder about (David Desharnais division) for the Oilers this summer is Sam Gagner. Edmonton could use him as 4R and 1PP, and that righty shot could help keep Mark Letestu fresh. Speed would be impacted, but it’s at least worth talking about (I am leaning toward Slepyshev as being 4R for next year.

PETER CHIARELLI’S LIST

As we discussed yesterday, Peter Chiarelli’s summer is going to be a lot about cap and some about the roster. Unlike previous seasons, when the procurement could go seven or eight deep, we should see a specific, targeted summer of addition.

  • Get Connor Mcdavid signed to a long-term contract.
  • Get Leon Draisaitl signed to a long-term contract.
  • Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future.
  • Find a way to trade Benoit Pouliot off the roster.
  • Find a second pairing RHD with two-way acumen.
  • Find a bottom 6F who can help the offense.
  • Find a way to cover off buried contracts (Fayne)  and stay under the cap.
  • Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline.

ROSTER PROJECTION

  • Unlike yesterday, we’ve shoehorned most of the players from a year ago onto the roster. Benoit Pouliot gets traded, Mark Fayne finds the minors (instead of buyout). I still think buying him out makes more sense, but a few mentioned it being a bad idea so we’ll keep him for now.
  • The actual cap room is probably more, I am maxing out the bonuses for Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi and Darnell Nurse.
  • I think the Oilers could get by with trading Pouliot and Fayne, to be honest. Doing those two things would turn that cap room above into $3.39M. That would allow PC to sign Kris Russell instead of Cody Franson, or even aim higher. I do like Franson, his CorsiRel ranks among the 10 best in the NHL this past season. His value is also (apparently) low coming from his Buffalo experience, he could be a value contract.
  • I suspect Peter Chiarelli is preparing to trade a big salary, and further expect it will be a player who was a member of the team on the day this GM arrived.

Our man makes it to the Czech elite league starting in the fall. Plenty of talk about Edmonton losing his rights  if Svoboda doesn’t sign, I’ve always had a difficult time understanding the rules on these Euro picks. In the past, when I thought a player was no longer part of the organization, someone from the team would say something vague like “we still have him on our reserve list” so I’m not certain he becomes a free agent this summer.

2016-17 NUMBERS AGAINST ANAHEIM

  • One of the surprises of the first round was improved secondary scoring. As you can see, the Oilers didn’t get a lot of it during their five game (3-2 Oil) season series.
  • Over 50 percent (eight of 14) of the offense funneled through the top line, we should look for some impressive boxcars from the trio. I suspect Maroon may play some or all of the series on that 1line.
  • The Nuge line was impressive during the San Jose series, but badly need to provide some offense against the Ducks. Anaheim has balanced scoring, Edmonton needs the same. I will publish Anaheim v. Oilers during the regular season in tomorrow’s GDT.
  • Cam Talbot’s SP (.902) isn’t stellar but five games is a small sample size.

Draft followers will want to read Steve Kournianos U18 recap (Volume 1). It’s a quick read but very effective in passing along the names of this year’s impact players.

The reason I picked the Oilers is that Connor McDavid plays for Edmonton. He makes a helluva difference, packs a massive wallop and I do believe he’ll enter this series with something (in his mind) to prove. I’m with all who believe that elevating one’s game for the biggest contests is folly, but when you are magnificent and playing in a big game the attention is heightened. I suspect Connor McDavid is already setting his jaw, sending out that stern look of determination, and expecting to fly. Godspeed.

That article by Stephens is a dandy and contains this quote from Randy Carlyle:

  • “I can remember the last game that we played against them here. On every defensive zone faceoff, he pulled Connor McDavid off the ice. So what was happening was Kesler’s group was not getting any offensive time and that can, at times, wear on players in the situation you’re in.”

I think the Oilers are about to enter a physical, more traditional series against the Ducks. Randy Carlyle is not an innovator per se, but does have impressive options at his disposal. One area Edmonton could really help themselves? Cobbling together a third line capable of scoring consistently. More on that side of the story in tomorrow’s GDT.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

This morning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Oilers Nation. Is Jon picking the Oilers? What kind of series will we see?
  • Josh Brewster, Duck Calls. We’ll look at the Ducks as they enter their first real series.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Around the NHL, looking at Oilers, Senators and more.
  • Brad Gagnon, Bleacher Report. NFL draft.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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178 Responses to "LOOSE CHANGE"

  1. Jethro Tull says:

    Gaurnyea on a value contract? Sign me up. Soft minutes and fits the Chia/TMac mould of center/winger interchangeability.

    Honestly, 2yrs @ $1.5per? PP with McD? Chance to move up and down the line up? Lots to like about Sam

    And this time, if he’s also in picture, it’s likely to be in a selly!

  2. Whatif says:

    This upcoming series against the Ducks has the potential to create a real rivalry. Anaheim has several players that it is very easy to detest (Kesler, Bieksa). It will be even more heated than the Calgary/Anaheim series because either team has the ability to win this one. Should produce some memorable playoff hockey.

  3. Pouzar says:

    I only have 1 prediction. McDavid scores 8+ points in this series which is double his output in the Sharks series. Hopefully that translates to an Oilers birth in the Conf Final.

  4. leadfarmer says:

    Pass on Franson. He played 16 minutes ev a game. We need a guy that can be trusted to play 2nd line RHD and a team that has terrible d depth wouldn’t trust him with those minutes we shouldn’t either.

  5. Ben says:

    Pouzar:
    I only have 1 prediction. McDavid scores 8+ points in this series which is double his output in the Sharks series. Hopefully that translates to an Oilers birth in the Conf Final.

    Yes, 8 points would be quite the litter!

  6. Professor Q says:

    Whatif:
    This upcoming series against the Ducks has the potential to create a real rivalry. Anaheim has several players that it is very easy to detest (Kesler, Bieksa). It will be even more heated than the Calgary/Anaheim series because either team has the ability to win this one. Should produce some memorable playoff hockey.

    Or rather, continue and expand a preexisting rivalry.

  7. BONE207 says:

    Pouzar:
    I only have 1 prediction. McDavid scores 8+ points in this series which is double his output in the Sharks series. Hopefully that translates to an Oilers birth in the Conf Final.

    Pretty smart for a guy who drinks Lucky Lager. Might have to switch from Heineken…if you’re right.

  8. npanciroli says:

    I’m okay with a cheaper RHD option because I think the Oilers should explore the Sekera Benning pairing more next year.

    Franson might give them that or maybe someone else.

    McDavid hopefully scores 10+ pts to make up for the first series.

  9. Pouzar says:

    Big NO on Sam Gagner for me. Especially with Letestu on the roster.

  10. neojanus says:

    I like the Oilers’ chance in round two. This team is awfully hard to shut down over multiple games. We KNOW that Klefbom and Draisaitl have been very ill, but McLellan sure made it sound like others were sick throughout the series.

    My guess: Sekera and McDavid were fighting it a bit as well. Sekera looked awfully sluggish and McDavid had less boost than usual; there were times I thought he looked physically uncomfortable on the ice and gassed out a little early. If this team gets over the flu, there is still another level offensively and defensively.

    The other thing is something intangible, but the Oilers learned at least three hard lessons in round one. Game One’s collapse, Game Four, and a questionable bias in the officiating throughout. I sometimes feel that teams benefit in the playoffs through hard lessons. The Ducks got a porous Calgary and despite some injuries defensively, haven’t had much adversity yet.

    If the Oilers can stay disciplined, keep the defensive structure, and get a goal more a game out of line one or two (highly likely), I see more roads out of this series for them than Anaheim.

    Not that it matters, but WSH/NYR/NSH/EDM make the final four.

  11. hags9k says:

    Wait, so how old is this Connor McDavid fellow?

    Just turned 20 in January you say?

    OK carry on.

  12. Brantford Boy says:

    Gagner and Kassian on the same team, not going to happen… oil and water without the rainbows…
    I hope you are right with the ‘more traditional series’, I was envious of the rugged play that the refs allowed the Ducks-Flames to play while watching our boys march to the box 7 times a game… without the slashing, I saw a lot of hand slashes on Flames players…
    I do believe I will have duck for dinner tomorrow though… Go Oilers!

  13. Pouzar says:

    BONE207: Pretty smart for a guy who drinks Lucky Lager. Might have to switch from Heineken…if you’re right.

    It was kinda what I was driving at when I asked the question “Who is Anaheim’s Vlasic?”.

    I love their D as a unit when healthy but I don’t think they have a Vlasic and Connor goes off this series.

  14. Offside says:

    Prediction: Gagner signs with EDM and gets cross-checked from behind in his first game. Kassian comes to his defence and pummels the assailant. The crowd cheers like crazy and those two form a dynamic third line

  15. JDI Хоккей says:

    NO SAMS CLUB

  16. Ice Sage says:

    Gagner is unlikely – he is going to be asking more than the Oil can afford.

    Tough series to call but it’s all gravy for the Oilers now so I’m gonna relax and enjoy the rollercoaster.

  17. Pescador says:

    JDI Хоккей:
    NO SAMS CLUB


    I’ll bring my lemon squares,
    runner up at the church bake sale btw.
    Any openings for janitor?

  18. Pescador says:

    BONE207: Pretty smart for a guy who drinks Lucky Lager. Might have to switch from Heineken…if you’re right.

    How did you get access to my medical file?

  19. Whatif says:

    Professor Q,

    In my mind it is difficult to talk about a rivalry unless the two teams have faced each other in the playoffs. Due to our decade of fail, we don’t really have any rivalries left except for Calgary.

    Most of our players weren’t even in the league the last time we played any meaningful games.

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! Looking at your to-do list: do you think the Oil are set with Brossoit?

    – He’s gone from 1 to 5 to 8 games with the Oil (and got a playoff taste in the blow-out) last 3 years. So they are slow-playing him: maybe best to see him for say 16 games (double this year)?

    – My only thing with him is that he appears just competent/average wherever he’s played, but he’s passed all of BCHL, ECHL, WHL then NHL: just wonder if they look for different next year?

  21. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Pass on Franson.He played 16 minutes ev a game.We need a guy that can be trusted to play 2nd line RHD and a team that has terrible d depth wouldn’t trust him with those minutes we shouldn’t either.

    Russell led the Oilers with 18.5. Sekera played 17. Franson’s 16 came behind Ristolainen (who played way too much) and Bogosian. I don’t think 16 ev minutes a night is a negative.

  22. speeds says:

    LT wrote:

    “I think the Oilers could get by with trading Pouliot and Fayne, to be honest. Doing those two things would turn that cap room above into $3.39M. That would allow PC to sign Kris Russell instead of Cody Franson, or even aim higher. I do like Franson, his CorsiRel ranks among the 10 best in the NHL this past season. His value is also (apparently) low coming from his Buffalo experience, he could be a value contract.”

    Is it fair to assume this is more how you think Chiarelli views it, vs. how you view it?

  23. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!Looking at your to-do list: do you think the Oil are set with Brossoit?

    – He’s gone from 1 to 5 to 8 games with the Oil (and got a playoff taste in the blow-out) last 3 years.So they are slow-playing him: maybe best to see if he can handle say 16 games (double this year)?

    – My only thing with him is that he appears just competent/average wherever he’s played, but he’s passed all of BCHL, ECHL, WHL then NHL: just wonder if they look for something different next year?

    I think they are committed from now until the trade deadline 2018. He will have that period imo to establish himself. Ellis might catch him, though.

  24. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    LT wrote:

    “I think the Oilers could get by with trading Pouliot and Fayne, to be honest. Doing those two things would turn that cap room above into $3.39M. That would allow PC to sign Kris Russell instead of Cody Franson, or even aim higher. I do like Franson, his CorsiRel ranks among the 10 best in the NHL this past season. His value is also (apparently) low coming from his Buffalo experience, he could be a value contract.”

    Is it fair to assume this is more how you think Chiarelli views it, vs. how you view it?

    I am trying to think along with Chiarelli, so how I think Chiarelli views it. I would do things differently, beginning with keeping Pouliot.

  25. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide,

    – That seems like a fair approach: give him 10 games 1st half to see. They don’t seem to trust anyone other than Talbot, and you worry about his over-usage IMO.

  26. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Dear Sam,

    You seem like a good guy. You’ve had lots of opportunities in the league but success has slipped through your fingers. You’ve been run out of, what, 3 towns? Then you get to Columbus and have more success than I think anyone thought possible.

    Now you’re going to leave.

    Are you F#$*ing insane? Seriously? Go somewhere else and there is a very, very reasonable chance that you are playing in Europe by Christmas 2019. For the love of all that is holy dance with the one that brought you man.

  27. frjohnk says:

    One thing about next year when we look at the salary cap when projecting the roster, is the possibility of an increase in the cap.

    Chris Johnston‏Verified account @reporterchris
    Bill Daly says the NHL’s salary cap is projected to be $75.5M-$76M next season, but adds it will depend on inflator negotiations with NHLPA.

    It it hits $75M, we shouldnt have much trouble for next year, but the can does get kicked down the road.

  28. Truth says:

    Hopefully the matchup of Kesler and McDavid leads to many powerplays for the Oilers. Kesler = notorious aggressor / sneaky dirty vs. McDavid = known by everyone that refs missed too many calls in round 1.

  29. Chachi says:

    I am wrong about everything, it is who I am, but no player in the NHL is as lined up to get paid too much for too long by Las Vegas than Sam Gagner. He’ll score 45 points there and finish -42.

  30. russ99 says:

    npanciroli:
    I’m okay with a cheaper RHD option because I think the Oilers should explore the Sekera Benning pairing more next year.

    Franson might give them that or maybe someone else.

    McDavid hopefully scores 10+ pts to make up for the first series.

    Someone has put in the tough defensive minutes. As we saw against San Jose and will against Anaheim, you need two pairings that can do heavy lifting in our zone in the playoffs.

    We can’t get easier to score against by chasing a better Corsi and contend for the cup.

    I’m all for improving the team, but backsliding in any category that got us here is a bad idea.

  31. fifthcartel says:

    Franson would be fine with me if they can’t acquire a better option. Can’t always just keep waiting for the next best option. Franson’s not Stralman, but he improves the team and shouldn’t be at a price point that negates a future improvement.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Lowetide,

    – That seems like a fair approach: give him 10 games 1st half to see.They don’t seem to trust anyone other than Talbot, and you worry about his over-usage IMO.

    Yep. Need to fix that for sure.

  33. Ribs says:

    Chachi:
    I am wrong about everything, it is who I am, but no player in the NHL is as lined up to get paid too much for too long by Las Vegas than Sam Gagner. He’ll score 45 points there and finish -42.

    I was thinking Vegas as well. He could enter his “Ray Ferraro as a Thrasher” stage and put up some decent numbers getting prime ice time.

  34. Melman says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Excellent point – maybe time for dad – who should know – to give him a glove upside the head.

  35. Ducey says:

    The cap is $73 M right now. Are we thinking its going down? Seems unlikely.

    I like the plan set out today, more than yesterday. Its more realistic.

    Trading Fayne, Pouliot, and say Eberle is a bit of a pipe dream. A lot other teams are up against the Cap too. Vegas might take one of those contracts.

    I think if I am Chia I plan to have JP on the farm and sign a veteran RW. JP can use some more seasoning, it eliminates his bonus, and provides depth. You could do a Jagr, Williams, Doan, Oshie, Vanek, Hudler, Eaves, or Vrbata on RW with Connor.

  36. Chachi says:

    Ribs: I was thinking Vegas as well. He could enter his “Ray Ferraro as a Thrasher” stage and put up some decent numbers getting prime ice time.

    Yeah, I was thinking more like his “Shaun Van Allen as a Mighty Duck” stage, but Ferraro is a pretty decent comp. Sad that Gagner is about equivalent to a 35 year old Ray Ferraro.

  37. Melman says:

    russ99,

    I think Russell learning to shoot right over the summer might be the most sensible answer

  38. Chachi says:

    Chicago fired their AHL coach who pulled off not one, but two career limiting moves this season.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/hockey/blackhawks/ct-blackhawks-fire-ted-dent-20170425-story.html

  39. Jethro Tull says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Dear Sam,

    You seem like a good guy.You’ve had lots of opportunities in the league but success has slipped through your fingers.You’ve been run out of, what, 3 towns?Then you get to Columbus and have more success than I think anyone thought possible.

    Now you’re going to leave.

    Are you F#$*ing insane?Seriously?Go somewhere else and there is a very, very reasonable chance that you are playing in Europe by Christmas 2019.For the love of all that is holy dance with the one that brought you man.

    Ok, so, I like Sam, i think if we can get him cheap then he solidifies the bottom 6, but if we don’t, well no biggy. Other players out there. But……i feel you are being grossly unfair here. So i will write Sam’s reply to the lovely heart warming letter you wrote him.

    Dear Cash McMoaney,

    The best day of my life was when is when i was drafted 6OV in 2007. The Oilers were reigning Western Conference Champs, went to game seven in the final. The world was my mollusc, or at least an interesting bi-valve. The team had some good but not great players that had put up significant numbers in the playoffs and needed to be resigned. Chris Pronger had just been traded also, but i didn’t let that detract from being drafted by what should be a perennial playoff team.

    I knew i was on a good thing, i signed a 3yr contract before the season opener and scored my first NHL point 3 days later. With Cogs and Nillsy, i tore it up for nearly 50pts in my rookie season, something even Nuge has never done. We missed the playoffs that year, but we were a young team, learning our way and were certain of playoffs the next year! That’s when things started to take a dip. Horcs was struggling, i started getting more minutes, more than i should if I’m honest. Offense was harder to come by, so i started cheating a little, playing a little too north of the hash-marks in our own zone, and i was always gassed after playing the toughs. I started hearing rumblings that maybe I’d be moved, that the fans weren’t happy, but i always tried my best.

    Good news! Traded to Tampa. Correction, Arizona. Ok, they’re another struggling team, they made the playoffs, but their not what you’d call a lock every year. Like Tampa. But the weather’s nice. Switched to wing, with Big Marty, we have chemistry man! Can’t wait until next year!

    Good news! Traded to the Flyers. Not sure where i’ll fit in. Rumors that my old GM Maloney said I couldn’t play center at the NHL level so he traded me. Weird. I was playing wing, and most of Coyotes can’t play at the NHL level either, so you gonna trade the whole team, Don? Huh?

    Ran out my contract, signed with the Jackets. Bit of a funny team, look awesome one year, dog shizzle the next. Torts as my coach. Wonder what he’s like. GM indicating that he won’t resign me, so maybe I’ll try free agency again. Had a good year on the PP and fewer minutes and Torts taught me defensive responsibility, so i feel I’m now a more complete player.

    So that’s my story, Cash old buddy, old pal. Ran out of Arizona but although i have always been asked to do more than I was capable, i always tried my best. And as for dancing with the one that brought me? That’s not in my hands, is it?

    Your friend,

    Samwise.

  40. Ducey says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Dear Sam,

    You seem like a good guy.You’ve had lots of opportunities in the league but success has slipped through your fingers.You’ve been run out of, what, 3 towns?Then you get to Columbus and have more success than I think anyone thought possible.

    Now you’re going to leave.

    Are you F#$*ing insane?Seriously?Go somewhere else and there is a very, very reasonable chance that you are playing in Europe by Christmas 2019.For the love of all that is holy dance with the one that brought you man.

    Dear Mr. Cash,

    Thanks for your unsolicited advice.

    I’d love to stay in Columbus. But they only paid me $650,000 last year. My agent says I deserve more than that and unfortunately, the Blue Jackets are already at the Cap for next season.

    Sam

    PS Torts is an A Hole too.

  41. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: The best day of my life was when is when i was drafted 6OV in 2007. The Oilers were reigning Western Conference Champs,

    They were?

  42. Pouzar says:

    Sam Gagner is not walking through that door folks. Don’t think he is a Chia type player.

  43. StixMalone says:

    Chachi:
    Chicago fired their AHL coach who pulled off not one, but two career limiting moves this season.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/hockey/blackhawks/ct-blackhawks-fire-ted-dent-20170425-story.html

    I think a knee jerk fire sale is upcoming…..

  44. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: Chris Pronger had just been traded also

    He had just been traded?

  45. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: I am trying to think along with Chiarelli, so how I think Chiarelli views it. I would do things differently, beginning with keeping Pouliot.

    The issue for me isn’t the player. Again, like eberle, nuge, and fayne, it’s the contract for ability.

    Right now we have two overpaid second line forwards, an overpaid third liner, and over paid 6-7 dman.

    Pouliot needs to go, along with fayne, because we can replace what they do for cheaper. I think that is how chiarelli views things, obviously, and that pouliots deal runs through mcdavids.

  46. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Whatif:
    Professor Q,

    In my mind it is difficult to talk about a rivalry unless the two teams have faced each other in the playoffs. Due to our decade of fail, we don’t really have any rivalries left except for Calgary.

    Most of our players weren’t even in the league the last time we played any meaningful games.

    Heh heh last time the Oilers took out the Sharks they took out the Ducks in the very next series.
    *cackles maniacally*

  47. stush18 says:

    Ducey: Dear Mr. Cash,

    Thanks for your unsolicited advice.

    I’d love to stay in Columbus. But they only paid me $650,000 last year. My agent says I deserve more than that and unfortunately, the Blue Jackets are already at the Cap for next season.

    Sam

    PS Torts is an A Hole too.

    This is exactly what I was going to say.

    Also, if gagner is really going to be playing overseas ivy 2019, then he should maximize his contract. He doesn’t owe anyone anything, he should know that better than anyone.

    I’d take him back for 3c/1PP. I always liked him. He never complained, even when he was playing fourth line between gazdic and eager.

    As with all players, defence typically comes at a later date. I suspect Sam has improved in that regards.

  48. jimmers2 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Heh heh last time the Oilers took out the Sharks they took out the Ducks in the very next series.
    *cackles maniacally*

    The Ducks, you say? Excellent… (tents fingers)

  49. Bag of Pucks says:

    Based on last night’s thread, I fear we’re nearing the point where we won’t see the fabled ‘balance’ photo because of…leftorium. Reason being: Darnell Nurse will likely be good enough to elevate to 2nd pairing next season. But he’s left handed so we’ll want to keep him buried on the third pairing and sign Cody Franson for the 2nd pair instead?

    If we’re reaching the point where we think Cody Franson is a better longterm solution for the Oil than Darnell Nurse, than I think we’ve reached the point where this whole ‘handedness’ thing has gotten out of hand!

    Sekera can play the opposite side. Nurse is growing into a legitimate top 4 defenceman. The new 2nd pairing is closer than you think.

    If we’re going to spend a major chunk of the offseason calling for a RHD signing, I fear we’re wasting our time. The solution will come from within. Darnell elevates and the likes of Reinhart, Oesterle, Bear, Jones and Paigan make for a helluva training camp competition for the vacant 3rd pairing slot.

  50. Pouzar says:

    stush18: I’d take him back for 3c/1PP

    3rd Line Center? Did he not play 4th line RW this year?
    Maloney had some scathing words for Sammy and his ability to play Center in the NHL.
    I will need something stronger than Lucky Lager if Samwise/Test tube are our bottom 6 Centers.

  51. Bag of Pucks says:

    Gagner to Lander, “You da man!”

    Lander to Gagner, “No, you da man!”

    Repeat ad infinitum

  52. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    Its not the raw number, Its how they are used in comparison to their teammates. Larsson and Russell were used as a top 4 having similar time on ice. Franson got passed over by Bogo who in turn got passed by Risto. Sure his numbers look good but he got them as #3 RHD. We already have the #3RHD secured in Benning. We need an upgrade on #2RHD and i’m not convinced he is going to be better than Russell

  53. Pouzar says:

    I guess Samwise did play some Center out of injury necessity and did ok according to this article but I believe that was line 4. Looks like he was back on the wing in the playoffs.

    http://www.dispatch.com/sports/20170312/blue-jackets–sam-gagners-play-may-keep-him-at-center

  54. stephen sheps says:

    leadfarmer: Franson got passed over by Bogo who in turn got passed by Risto. Sure his numbers look good but he got them as #3 RHD.

    That’s true, but Risto was also playing well over his head this year and isn’t actually as good as people think he is (yet… he probably will be). Buffalo was a dumpster fire, yet Franson comes out looking only a little bit dusty rather than covered in ashes and waste. Franson also isn’t as good as his numbers suggest, but he’s not as bad as some seem to say he is either.

    leadfarmer: We need an upgrade on #2RHD and i’m not convinced he is going to be better than Russell

    Bag of Pucks: Reason being: Darnell Nurse will likely be good enough to elevate to 2nd pairing next season. But he’s left handed so we’ll want to keep him buried on the third pairing and sign Cody Franson for the 2nd pair instead?

    I see nothing wrong with having Nurse as the 3LD next season or beyond. He’ll get his minutes, especially if the Oilers continue to have a D by committee approach.

    As to the 2RD thing – Benning looked quite good earlier in the season when matched with Sekera on the 2nd pairing. What if the team already has its 2RD of the (short term) future already on the roster?

  55. frjohnk says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Based on last night’s thread, I fear we’re nearing the point where we won’t see the fabled ‘balance’ photo because of…leftorium. Reason being: Darnell Nurse will likely be good enough to elevate to 2nd pairing next season. But he’s left handed so we’ll want to keep him buried on the third pairing and sign Cody Franson for the 2nd pair instead?

    If we’re reaching the point where we think Cody Franson is a better longterm solution for the Oil than Darnell Nurse, than I think we’ve reached the point where this whole ‘handedness’ thing has gotten out of hand!

    Sekera can play the opposite side. Nurse is growing into a legitimate top 4 defenceman. The new 2nd pairing is closer than you think.

    If we’re going to spend a major chunk of the offseason calling for a RHD signing, I fear we’re wasting our time. The solution will come from within. Darnell elevates and the likes of Reinhart, Oesterle, Bear, Jones and Paigan make for a helluva training camp competition for the vacant 3rd pairing slot.

    Im not sure Franson is the answer for top 4 duty, but if we can find someone who is and if we can keep Nurse with Benning on the 3rd pair, this team will be rocking from the backend.

    Still too much chaos in Nurses game to put him as a top 4 Dman. When he is on the ice, there are too many shots against from the slot and too many of these shots turn into goals against.

    Now if he takes a step in year 3, like he did in year 2, then he is getting closer to what we believe he can be, but that remains to be seen. I eventually see him in a tough minutes pairing with Larsson.

    There are holes in the games all of those prospect D, so we shouldnt expect them to push for a job next fall, they need some time in the AHL.

    Russell at a decent cost for another year, would be OK, or someone else should be brought in.

  56. khildahl says:

    Chachi: They were?

    The Ducks might disagree.

  57. leadfarmer says:

    stephen sheps,

    Players develop unevenly especially defensemen. I would feel much better if Benning was pencilled in at 3 RHD for the next two years and move up if needed in case of injury

  58. npanciroli says:

    Really nice to be thinking about depth spots and not filling huge holes like 1C or 1RHD or 1G.

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I’m not sure how I feel about Franson.

    He played 3rd pair and 3rd pair usually gets less shots against/60 due to playing the bottom 6 types more.

    5v5 Shots against for BUF Dmen:

    FRANSON, CODY 29.14
    FALK, JUSTIN 29.25
    BOGOSIAN, ZACH 31.36
    GORGES, JOSH 32.09
    KULIKOV, DMITRY 34.12
    MCCABE, JAKE 34.56
    RISTOLAINEN, RASMUS 36.48

    So Franson was the lowest regular.

    Here’s BUF’s Dmen against WM Elite Forwards:

    TOI% vs Elites
    Rasmus Ristolainen 38
    Josh Gorges 34
    Jake McCabe 33
    Cody Franson 31
    Zach Bogosian 28
    Dmitry Kulikov 27
    Justin Falk 22

    Huh. Looks like Franson played more 2nd pairing type comp.

    Relatives vs Elites:

    Relative Corsi vs Elites
    Justin Falk 12.61
    Zach Bogosian 6.07
    Cody Franson 2.47
    Jake McCabe -0.52
    Josh Gorges -2.53
    Rasmus Ristolainen -2.86
    Dmitry Kulikov -5.2

    Faulk has a pretty small sample, I’d expect that to normalize a bit. Reasonable number for Franson. Bogo looks good, better than the past.

    Relative DFF vs Elites

    Zach Bogosian 6.98
    Justin Falk 6.94
    Josh Gorges -0.33
    Jake McCabe -2.14
    Rasmus Ristolainen -2.93
    Dmitry Kulikov -5.26

    Franson ok again. Bogo looks even better.

    Now, in terms of “defence” I’ll look at the relative corsi against and relative DFF against.

    Negative numbers are good here as there was less “against” against.

    Relative Corsi Against/60 vs Elite F.

    Justin Falk -13.93
    Cody Franson -4.64
    Zach Bogosian -4.33
    Josh Gorges -1.76
    Jake McCabe 2.33
    Rasmus Ristolainen 5.04
    Dmitry Kulikov 6.48

    Again, Falk’s wonky small sample shows up top. Franson looks good at allowing less shots against.

    What we saw in the SA/60 wasn’t an artifact of QoC, he does it against good players too.

    Relative DFA/60 vs Elite F

    Justin Falk -7.73
    Josh Gorges -4.47
    Cody Franson -4.22
    Zach Bogosian -1.68
    Dmitry Kulikov -0.67
    Rasmus Ristolainen 3.38
    Jake McCabe 4.3

    And there we go.

    Now all that’s left is to check to see if a partner was zooming him. Don’t have time right now.

    The rels look good, but BUF has the 2nd worst Dcorps behind COL, and when Johnson’s healthy I probably take COL’s simply for Johnson.

    BUF doesn’t have a really good Dman on the roster.

    Not sure if this makes him a candidate for 2RD on the Oilers (I’d like them to aim higher, like Hamonic), but I think this shows he’d probably have better results than Russell there and he’s almost guaranteed to be cheaper.

    I’m a little intrigued on Bogo, but his history is pretty meh and he gets paid.

  60. jm363561 says:

    frjohnk: Im not sure Franson is the answer for top 4 duty, but if we can find someone who is and if we can keep Nurse with Benning on the 3rd pair, this team will be rocking from the backend.

    Still too much chaos in Nurses game to put him as a top 4 Dman.When he is on the ice, there are too many shots against from the slot and too many of these shots turn into goals against.

    Now if he takes a step in year 3, like he did in year 2, then he is getting closer to what we believe he can be, but that remains to be seen.I eventually see him in a tough minutes pairing with Larsson.

    There are holes in the games all of those prospect D, so we shouldnt expect them to push for a job next fall, they need some time in the AHL.

    ====
    I would agree with this. Nurse / Benning have potential but still seem some way from being excellent third pair defenders on a consistent basis. A good 2RD (and a 3D assuming Leon plays RW) are the current areas of weakness (and I fear this will be apparent against the Ducks).

    Hopefully we will not see whether the season long train wreck in backup goal tending will be exposed.

  61. N64 says:

    Whatif: Due to our decade of fail, we don’t really have any rivalries left except for Calgary

    Not too hard to spot the old rival in this nice little shiv :

    “Josh Brewster, Duck Calls. We’ll look at the Ducks as they enter their first real series”

  62. Chachi says:

    khildahl: The Ducks might disagree.

    I think we have figured out the problem with Gagner. He may have been in a coma for all of the 2016/17 season.

    Edit: D’oh! 2006/2007 season. Always wrong, that’s who I am.

  63. stush18 says:

    Pouzar,

    I think torts really shuffled his lines this year.

    He took ~400 face offs this year.

    Also I’ve noticed more and more teams don’t have “positions” per sa

    First man back grabs 3rd man into zone. Players play man on man in zone.

    I’ve noticed kassian especially is good at pointing out players. I see him lots working down low or playing the slot.

  64. Ducey says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    Not sure if this makes him a candidate for 2RD on the Oilers (I’d like them to aim higher, like Hamonic),

    Didn’t Hamonic have a brutal year? His CF% is the worst of anyone on the NYI this year. RelCorsi was -5.4, against worst on the team. -21 +/- in only 49 games (the next worst Dman was Leddy at -3.)

    Safe to say that had the Oilers traded Leon or Nurse (or whoever) for him, they would not have made the playoffs.

  65. Pouzar says:

    stush18,

    Gagner played most of his minutes with Sedlak (Center when healthy) and Hartnell and they were the defacto 4th line.

  66. slopitch says:

    Pass on Gagner and Franson. Neither can skate good enough.

    Id take Russel over Franson myself.

    I see the Oilers as having 2 weaknesses.
    – 3C (depending on what they do with JP/Drai)
    – 2RHD

    The rest can be addressed at the deadline. Next year is the year to buy and move the 2018 1st. And we have a shot at the finals this year! Suck it ducks. Gonna be a close series.

  67. stephen sheps says:

    leadfarmer:
    stephen sheps,

    Players develop unevenly especially defensemen.I would feel much better if Benning was pencilled in at 3 RHD for the next two years and move up if needed in case of injury

    I would too, but despite the small sample size, Benning’s trajectory has been impressive. He’s also an older prospect, which gives me a bit more hope that he could do well in the role if the cap creates a situation that the team can’t go out and get a Russell upgrade (or keep Russell for another year).

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for sharing those numbers. Indeed Franson looks more like a 2/3 hybrid than a true 3rd pairing guy, and he should cost less than Russell. But I would also like to aim higher.

  68. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Don’t know if it was shared yesterday or even today yet, but here’s a video of Lucic singing (seemingly on the john) to Bhangra music.

    https://streamable.com/u2vdf

  69. Woogie63 says:

    I bet the Duck are planning to exploit the Oilers’ second line.

    If 27-93-14 play 18 minutes a night in key situation and come away from this round with 5 collective points again, they will be a story line.

    Nuge needs to produce 6-8 ev points and lead this line.

  70. --hudson-- says:

    Very nice visualizations of playoff rosters by birth country, age and draft round
    http://3rdlinegrind.com/2017/04/25/stanley-cup-playoff-rosters-age-nationality-and-draft-round/

    75% of Washington are former 1st round picks!

  71. Jethro Tull says:

    Chachi: They were?

    Nope. One alternative fact year late on my part. I have the best alternative facts. Yuge.

  72. striatic says:

    Has a player ever won the Art Ross and Selke in the same year?

  73. Jethro Tull says:

    Chachi: He had just been traded?

    Presenting alternative facts from my head is who i am.

  74. Chachi says:

    Woogie63: Nuge needs to produce 6-8 ev points and lead this line.

    6-8 5v5 points? In 7 games or less? The only player in the league who came close to that in the regular season was McDavid. If Nuge can score that much at even strength going forward the Oilers win the cup and Nuge wins the Conn Smythe.

  75. Bag of Pucks says:

    If we’re truly trying to think like ‘Chiarelli’ or any GM for that matter, I think we need to embrace the idea that the GM is stocking his development pipeline with the goal of those players becoming his procurement solution of choice. Sooner rather than later, Chia wants to get out of the game of plugging roster holes with free agents or lateral trades. Not only is the homegrown talent drafted with a certain team system and organizational role in mind, they are far more cap efficient which will be crucial to reach the roster balance tipping point required to win the Cup.

    Sather didn’t bury players like Steve Smith, Huddy, Mironov, Jason Smith, etc. on the third pairing and make them force the issue. He gave his young defenceman progressively more responsibility and graduated them up the depth chart as they found their games. Players respond very well to this incidentally, They want to be challenged and trusted. Particularly alpha dogs like Nurse.

    If you swap Nurse in for Russell next season, does that make you a demonstrably worse team? I don’t think it does, and most importantly, it gives you a full season of Nurse alongside a vet mentor in Sekera, and a development plan that is challenging this potential 5 tool Dman to elevate his game with more mins and stiffer competition. I would much rather have Nurse with 150GPs under his belt including a full season in the second pairing going into next year’s playoffs as opposed to a fading free agent likely past his best buy date.

    Now, you can argue the NHL is not a development league, but eventually for every young D, you have to move them up the depth chart and give them the reps to see if they sink or swim.

    Bottom line: Chiarelli has invested considerable effort in restocking the pipeline with young D. Imo, you’re crazy if you think he’s gone to all that effort only to block this talent on the depth chart with an interim FA signing on a prohibitive cap hit.

  76. bbf_iii says:

    striatic:
    Has a player ever won the Art Ross and Selke in the same year?

    I don’t think so, but Fedorov was close. Won the Selke in 1994 and finished second in scoring with 120 points (Gretzky had 130).

  77. striatic says:

    striatic:
    Has a player ever won the Art Ross and Selke in the same year?

    Searching Wikipedia is my friend: “There has been only one instance in which a Selke Trophy winner was also awarded the Hart Memorial Trophy for Most Valuable Player—Sergei Fedorov captured both trophies during the 1993–94 NHL season.[3] There has not been an instance in which the Art Ross Trophy winner has been awarded the Selke Trophy, though Fedorov finished second in regular season scoring in 1994,[3] while Hart Trophy winner and Art Ross Trophy runner-up Joe Sakic finished second in Selke voting in 2001.[4] The most points scored in a Selke-winning season is 127, by Doug Gilmour in 1993.[5]”

    I predict that at some point during his career, Connor McDavid will become the first player in NHL history to win the Art Ross and Selke trophies in the same year.

  78. Bag of Pucks says:

    I think this will be trading chances type of series with Getzlaf/Kesler vs McDavid/RNH in the matchup department. I think Connor will win his matchup but RNH likely loses his. Or at the very least, RNH limits the opposition but doesn’t post much offense.

    Who’s Cs produce the most will be HUGE, huge I tell ya.

    Nuge, did we mention this would be an excellent time for an absolute breakout performance? : )

  79. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    No chance Ristolainen shakes loose is what I’m assuming. Only BUF defender I’d be looking at. Or Kulikov if he wants 600k.

  80. commonfan14 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Darnell Nurse will likely be good enough to elevate to 2nd pairing next season. But he’s left handed so we’ll want to keep him buried on the third pairing

    He’s not though. And his weak hand low shot leaves a lot to be desired.

    It would be nuts to ask a guy to switch to shooting with his off hand, but it seems to me that the opposite could at least be explored considering how many problems it would solve (not to mention how much a successful switch would increase his potential career earnings).

    We never question it when guys are asked to re-make themselves as checkers after playing for offense their whole lives.

    Give the man a righty stick for the summer and see what happens.

  81. 106 and 106 says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    thank you. made my day. Lucic has gained x1,000,000 more respect in my books.

  82. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    Bottom line: Chiarelli has invested considerable effort in restocking the pipeline with young D. Imo, you’re crazy if you think he’s gone to all that effort only to block this talent on the depth chart with an interim FA signing on a prohibitive cap hit.

    I agree with all that you wrote. However, I could see him looking at the pipeline and figuring its not producing in the next year (Mantha, Jones, Bear will need some AHL time) and plugging in a vet on 1 yr deal while he still has some Cap room.

  83. New Improved Darkness says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Heh heh last time the Oilers took out the Sharks they took out the Ducks in the very next series.
    *cackles maniacally*

    That doesn’t even include our 4-1 record in recent playoff series.
    *cackles like a menopausal macaw*

    Parrots and macaws do a curious thing when their ovaries start to run low: Their egg production surges.

    Do birds go through menopause?

    Several nonhuman primates also outlive their reproductive usefulness.

    Wild chimpanzees’ menstrual cycles lengthen continuously from their 20s into their 30s, at which point many stop ovulating. That means they can live a good decade without releasing an egg.

    A few fertile chimps cycle into their 50s, suggesting that, as with chickens, “menopause” can be brought on by suboptimal living conditions.

    Is this just the mother of all afterthoughts, or a delayed jumpstart deluge?

    Mozart The Talking Macaw Parrot

    He’s pretending to be a duck, and to prove it, he can’t count past five (wins).

  84. Bag of Pucks says:

    commonfan14: He’s not though. And his weak hand low shot leaves a lot to be desired.

    It would be nuts to ask a guy to switch to shooting with his off hand, but it seems to me that the opposite could at least be explored considering how many problems it would solve (not to mention how much a successful switch would increase his potential career earnings).

    We never question it when guys are asked to re-make themselves as checkers after playing for offense their whole lives.

    Give the man a righty stick for the summer and see what happens.

    I’m not suggesting this. Further up the thread, I mentioned that Sekera has played right side before and should be the player to make that switch if the org decides having the best player in that 4D spot is more important than handedness.

    Follow this logic through to its natural conclusion and you could conceivably ice a D core of 3 excellent LDs and 3 pathetic RDs with 2 excellent LD in the pressbox cos of ‘handedness.’ Yes, it’s important, but not at the expense of obviously better players.

  85. delooper says:

    German press at the Oilers PR sessions. Such a cute accent. Leon is getting noticed at home, so sweet.

    “Does he have any skills that are typically German?” ha

  86. blainer says:

    Really happy to see the coach harp about the faceoffs. I couldn’t agree more.

    They are magnified by ten come playoff time when goals are in short supply and a faceoff loss in the defensive zone can actually win or lose a series.

    We really have to step up on the faceoff’s. We are in tough here with the ducks. Wonder if Sleppy can learn to take a draw. big RT shot.. I’d give him some lessons to see how he does in practise.

    We need those wins especially on the PK. Love that the coach is making a big deal of this as it matters IMO.

  87. dustrock says:

    delooper:
    German press at the Oilers PR sessions.Such a cute accent.Leon is getting noticed at home, so sweet.

    “Does he have any skills that are typically German?” ha

    “He will take you to a sensibly-priced restaurant, then have a night of efficient German sex.”

  88. Centre of attention says:

    Friedmans 30 thoughts have been edited, just incase there was some panic

    It originially read “Teams like Toronto AND Edmonton will have 5 million in overages”

    It now only reads Toronto.

    Somebody skipped a decimal place 🙂 (we will have an overage, but likely a fraction of the 5 million Friedman original claimed)

    Hope this calms so folks down.

  89. stush18 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I’m not suggesting this. Further up the thread, I mentioned that Sekera has played right side before and should be the player to make that switch if the org decides having the best player in that 4D spot is more important than handedness.

    Follow this logic through to its natural conclusion and you could conceivably ice a D core of 3 excellent LDs and 3 pathetic RDs with 2 excellent LD in the pressbox cos of ‘handedness.’ Yes, it’s important, but not at the expense of obviously better players.

    Agreed. Earlier in April (I think) I suggested next year we run either

    Klefbom-larsson
    Sekera-benning
    Nurse-gryba
    Reinhart

    Or

    Klefbom-larsson
    Nurse-sekera
    Reinhart-benning
    Gryba

    Now I like the second lineup better, but I can understand people wanting to pick up a veteran to fill in the last spot. I don’t think it needs to be anything other than a One year deal (which is why I don’t think Russell will return).

    Surely in two years one of paigan, jones, bear, or berglund (my dark horse) will be ready. Signing a vet for more than a year seems silly to me

  90. LMHF#1 says:

    stush18: Agreed. Earlier in April (I think) I suggested next year we run either

    Klefbom-larsson
    Sekera-benning
    Nurse-gryba
    Reinhart

    Or

    Klefbom-larsson
    Nurse-sekera
    Reinhart-benning
    Gryba

    Neither of those look like an SC finalist top 6.

    That can and should be the only standard for next season.

  91. LMHF#1 says:

    dustrock: “He will take you to a sensibly-priced restaurant, then have a night of efficient German sex.”

    Well played sir.

  92. stush18 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    And actually that’s kinda what St. Louis did for the last two years.

    Bouwmeester-peteriengelo (fuc thats hard to spell!)
    Gunnarson-shattenkirk
    Edmundson-parayko

    Is that more effective than,

    Bouwemeester-peteriangelo(? Lol)
    Shattenkirk-parayko
    Gunnarson-edmundson

    Dunno. I like Nashvilles the best

    Josi-subban
    Ekholm-Ellis
    Irwin-weber

    Interesting, it says brad hunt is on the Nashville roster. Can anyone confirm?

  93. N64 says:

    New Improved Darkness: That doesn’t even include our 4-1 record in recent playoff series

    Hate that when I get excited and wreck the punch line.

    You might want look up RECENT or at least throw in a most.

  94. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey: I agree with all that you wrote. However, I could see him looking at the pipeline and figuring its not producing in the next year (Mantha, Jones, Bear will need some AHL time) and plugging in a vet on 1 yr deal while he still has some Cap room.

    Fully agree. Russell was easily found and pulled off the street at the last min and Chia could do a similar transaction again if players like Nurse, Benning and Reinhart disappoint in training camp. Or maybe you simply sign a couple vets to PTO deals?

    I’m always amazed by how much this fanbase underrates Nurse. I think he’ll acclimate exceptionally well to the 2nd pairing next season. The big risk factor is the 3rd pairing imo. Benning could have a sophomore downturn, this could be the camp where Reinhart officially busts, Gryba may no longer be an option, etc.

    By all means, if you can land a vet 2nd pairing guy, it’s not the hill I’d die on. But if we want to win the Cup with Connor, eventually you have to stop making lateral trades or signing guys to big cap hits, and instead graduate your prospects up the depth chart.

    Everyone suggesting this type of approach is folly would possibly do well to remind themselves that a depth chart with KBom on top pairing, Russell on second pairing, and Benning and Nurse on third likely looked like so much wishful thinking at the beginning of this season too. But the players in question elevated and here we are.

    This isn’t EA roster hockey. More often than not you’re breaking camp with a couple roster spots that require young players to take the next step. That’s the reality of a cap league imo.

  95. stush18 says:

    LMHF#1: Neither of those look like an SC finalist top 6.

    That can and should be the only standard for next season.

    So which veteran would you suggest we attempt to wrangle into coming here on a one year deal?

    That’s typically the problem. Any veteran worth bringing in isn’t going to accept a short term deal, and if they are willing to accept a short term deal, then they aren’t much better than our 6-7 or they are a reclamation product.

    I can’t see anyone coming here on a one yr deal tbh

  96. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ducey: Didn’t Hamonic have a brutal year? His CF% is the worst of anyone on the NYI this year. RelCorsi was -5.4, against worst on the team. -21 +/- in only 49 games (the next worst Dman was Leddy at -3.)

    Safe to say that had the Oilers traded Leon or Nurse (or whoever) for him, they would not have made the playoffs.

    A few things combined to give him a bad year where he only played 49 games and had poor results (for him)

    1) Rumoured that he broke his arm in November. They originally said he’d miss 4-6 weeks. He only missed a week and came back, wasn’t the same player. Played through it until he injured his knee in early Jan.

    2) Missed 2 months with an injured knee

    3) Tore his thumb ligament in late March in a fight and was done for the year.

    4) Capuano paired him mostly with Leddy after years of 1st pair with De Haan. He and Leddy didn’t work well together at all (44% CF) When Weight took over he moved him back with DeHaan and he was back to almost normal considering the injuries (48% with DeHaan)

    He has a history of being a good 1st pairing RHD and think this year was just a confluence of bad coaching and bad luck.

  97. stush18 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Agreed completely.

    The penguins defence when they won the cup was (roughly)

    Daley-letang
    Maata-lovejoy
    Scuderi-schultz
    Pouliot-cole

    Them and Chicago typically have AHL level players or rookies scattered throughout their lineups.

  98. Bag of Pucks says:

    stush18:
    Bag of Pucks,

    And actually that’s kinda what St. Louis did for the last two years.

    Bouwmeester-peteriengelo (fuc thats hard to spell!)
    Gunnarson-shattenkirk
    Edmundson-parayko

    Is that more effective than,

    Bouwemeester-peteriangelo(? Lol)
    Shattenkirk-parayko
    Gunnarson-edmundson

    Dunno. I like Nashvilles the best

    Josi-subban
    Ekholm-Ellis
    Irwin-weber

    Interesting, it says brad hunt is on the Nashville roster. Can anyone confirm?

    Totes. When you get a horse like a Parayko, you run it. You don’t bury it on the third pairing.

  99. khildahl says:

    dustrock: “He will take you to a sensibly-priced restaurant, then have a night of efficient German sex.”

    The whole night? That doesn’t seem very efficient.

  100. A'bunadh says:

    Woogie63:
    I bet the Duck are planning to exploit the Oilers’ second line.

    If 27-93-14 play 18 minutes a night in key situation and come away from this round with 5 collective points again, they will be a story line.

    Nuge needs to produce 6-8 ev points and lead this line.

    This narrative makes zero sense to me. The whole idea is to produce more than the other team. Nuge scoring 10 points and giving up the same amount is no different than scoring zero and giving up zero. If Nuge saws off the other team’s 1st/2nd line and the McDavid line outproduces their head to head matchup we most likely win. I think the story line will be McDavid’s ability/inability to outproduce his matchups, which should be more expected than Nuge putting up big points. Nuge was a big story line in a positive way and was acknowledged by his coach for doing what they wanted him to do, without producing. And I’m fine if that plays out the same way again.

  101. jbfuzz says:

    Fun times with roster projection. I go with.

    Maroon ($1.5) – McDavid ($3.775) – LD ($6.0)
    Lucic ($6.0) – RNH ($6.0) – JP ($3.425)
    Caggiula ($1.35) – Bjugstad ($4.1) – Kassian ($2.25)
    Khaira ($0.975) – Letestu ($1.7) – Sleppy ($0.925)
    Pitlick ($1.0)

    Klefbom ($$4.167) – Larsson ($4.167)
    Sekera ($5.5) – Hamonic ($3.857)
    Nurse ($1.713) – Benning ($0.975)
    Gryba ($0.9) Reinhart ($0.9)

    Total salary: $69.5
    Dead $: $1.0

    Contingent on:
    Fayne to LV at expansion draft with incentive thrown in (EDM 1st round pick for some lower pick(s))
    Eberle to NYI for Hamonic
    Pouliot to FLA for Bjugstad in trade of struggling F

    Intent here is to reflect Chiarelli thinking – Bjugstad’s versatility, size and age fits the Oilers current model. Salary cap space available to take on players at deadline or through season as it evolves.

  102. Professor Q says:

    khildahl: The whole night? That doesn’t seem very efficient.

    They didn’t specify a single round.

  103. VOR says:

    The thing I love about the question: “Do birds go through menopause?” is that like almost every question we ask here the correct answer is, “it depends”. More than anything else it depends on how you define menopause. As an endocrinologist I have to go with the hormonal definition of menopause in which case the answer is a resounding no, birds don’t go through menoapuse. In fact, the hormonal control of egg laying looks nothing like that of primate reproduction. If on the other hand you were to define menopause as simply females of a species living long past their ability to product viable eggs and thus beyond their offspring producing years then yes absolutely birds go through menopause.

    I am edging ever closer to going live with my own blog and I have chosen to lead with a post asking which NHL draft is the greatest of all time? Spoiler alert, It depends! Presumably most of us would agree that 1979 needs to have an asterix attached to it since it is really two drafts in one. But shouldn’t 2003 also have an asterix? The lucky players drafted that year were gifted the greatest opportunity in NHL history. 210 NHL players didn’t return after the lockout versus normal retirement of approximately 100 players per year. Plus they arrived in the NHL a year older than would have typically been the case. That is only one of many definitional problems I am exploring in my analysis.

    The contenders I have picked for best draft ever, and I would gladly consider others for my detailed analysis, are 1979, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2009.

  104. npanciroli says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Buy low.

  105. LMHF#1 says:

    stush18: So which veteran would you suggest we attempt to wrangle into coming here on a one year deal?

    That’s typically the problem. Any veteran worth bringing in isn’t going to accept a short term deal, and if they are willing to accept a short term deal, then they aren’t much better than our 6-7 or they are a reclamation product.

    I can’t see anyone coming here on a one yr deal tbh

    That’s not the tactic I’ve been suggesting. I’d be looking to trade.

  106. Jethro Tull says:

    VOR,

    Can’t wait to read it.

  107. spoiler says:

    VOR,

    Wow. seriously looking forward to it. I’m guessing this is a group of the best. Seems strange that 4 yrs out of a 6 yr stretch make the group. I’m guessing expansion skews results considerably, with the level of competition significantly lowered for years?

    Still the WHA brought some decent players with them, including the best all-time.

    Some other effect?

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    I’m always amazed by how much this fanbase underrates Nurse. I think he’ll acclimate exceptionally well to the 2nd pairing next season. The big risk factor is the 3rd pairing imo. Benning could have a sophomore downturn, this could be the camp where Reinhart officially busts, Gryba may no longer be an option.

    Here is every Oiler’s goal share when they are not with McDavid.

    Player GF%
    BENNING, MATTHEW 58.3
    LARSSON, ADAM 54.7
    KASSIAN, ZACK 52.4
    LETESTU, MARK 52.2
    EBERLE, JORDAN 51
    MAROON, PATRICK 50
    PULJUJARVI, JESSE 50
    POULIOT, BENOIT 50

    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 48.5
    LUCIC, MILAN 47.8
    CAGGIULA, DRAKE 46.9
    SEKERA, ANDREJ 46.8
    PITLICK, TYLER 45.8

    DRAISAITL, LEON 44.2
    RUSSELL, KRIS 44.2
    NURSE, DARNELL 40.5
    GRYBA, ERIC 34.5

    I can’t look at that and pencil in Nurse at 2nd pair.

    You’d have to be more confident in Benning at 58% than Nurse at 40%.

    I’d prefer neither at 2nd pair and have them 3rd pair with Reinhart 7D.

    I understand why people like Nurse.

    He’s big, he’s fast, he’s mean.

    He isn’t good at playing defense in the NHL yet though.

    He’s got all the tools, but he doesn’t seem to think the game well in his own end.

    You can’t say I under rate him though.

    When his results are a 40% goal share, that’s below NHL replacement and I think he’s a NHLer.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    npanciroli:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Buy low.

    Yupyup

  110. Woogie63 says:

    A’bunadh: This narrative makes zero sense to me.The whole idea is to produce more than the other team. Nuge scoring 10 points and giving up the same amount is no different than scoring zero and giving up zero.If Nuge saws off the other team’s 1st/2nd line and the McDavid line outproduces their head to head matchup we most likely win.I think the story line will be McDavid’s ability/inability to outproduce his matchups, which should be more expected than Nuge putting up big points.Nuge was a big story line in a positive way and was acknowledged by his coach for doing what they wanted him to do, without producing.And I’m fine if that plays out the same way again.

    Nobody saying that it is ok to be out scored.

    My point is RNH is set up to succeed and contribute in a meanful way to scoring. Great time to demonstrated that he is the 200 foot player we want him to be, in my mind that means (out)scoring his opponent’s line.

  111. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I believe a lot of success comes from opportunity. There are forwards on the Oilers that can do what Gagner does on the PP if they are given the at bats to settle in. And play better the rest of the game. Give Caggiula or Slepy the TOI and they will grow into it for less money and baggage.

  112. spoiler says:

    When you score (and the converse, when they) actually makes a difference, as should be evident from the Sharks series, and countless other series.

    It’s all well and good for your line to outscore the other line by 4 goals in one game, but if the matchup then outscores your line by one goal every game for 4 games… you might have trouble winning those games, despite the overall saw-off.

    So sawing off is fine, but we’re no longer in Stroke play here, we’re in Match play, and it needs to be done on a game-by basis to have success winning a series.

  113. VOR says:

    Spolier,

    This is just a guess but I think drafts are very often about the opportunity available and not the players available. I think the early years of the WHA-NHL merger provided unusual amounts of opportunities (NHL openings) and unusually rich (top 6) opportunities. But there are weird outliers in these ten drafts, even in those early years and 1984 is a case in point.

    The players drafted in the 1984 draft got no special breaks I can find. Their numbers actually reflect that. Over quite a run – more than 10 years – on average well over 50% of all drafted players made it to the NHL for at least one game. In 1984 that is near an all time low at 40.8% of all drafted players.

    Talking heads at the time predicted it was going to be a terrible draft and by this standard they weren’t wrong. There was one truly generational talent and then maybe 7 guys who might have careers but probably not very important ones. Some wag called it the”Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs” draft and the nickname stuck. 6 of the 7 did in fact have careers but none was a world beater.

    Yet there it is, a strong contender for the greatest draft of all time. There are three separate reasons. The first is that there wasn’t one generational talent there were two, and you could argue three. Anybody know what generational talent produced these box cars 1029 0 45 45?

    Secondly, no draft has produced more thousand game NHL players, ever.

    Finally, it is also near the top for players with at least 500 games and in terms of regular every day NHLers it is in the top three.

    1984, predicted to be terrible unless you were drafting 1st Overall, ran rich and deep in players who needed no help to emerge as stars and yes, superstars.

    But I still think opportunities in other draft years explain why there are so many great draft years in such a short time frame.

  114. who says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Based on last night’s thread, I fear we’re nearing the point where we won’t see the fabled ‘balance’ photo because of…leftorium. Reason being: Darnell Nurse will likely be good enough to elevate to 2nd pairing next season. But he’s left handed so we’ll want to keep him buried on the third pairing and sign Cody Franson for the 2nd pair instead?

    If we’re reaching the point where we think Cody Franson is a better longterm solution for the Oil than Darnell Nurse, than I think we’ve reached the point where this whole ‘handedness’ thing has gotten out of hand!

    Sekera can play the opposite side. Nurse is growing into a legitimate top 4 defenceman. The new 2nd pairing is closer than you think.

    If we’re going to spend a major chunk of the offseason calling for a RHD signing, I fear we’re wasting our time. The solution will come from within. Darnell elevates and the likes of Reinhart, Oesterle, Bear, Jones and Paigan make for a helluva training camp competition for the vacant 3rd pairing slot.

    THIS ALL DAY. If we are not adding anyone as good or better than Russell this kind of progression makes the most sense. Not sure if Franson is as good as Russell, kind of doubt it, but I am dam sure that Benning is not ready for second pairing. He would have to take a major step forward next year. Tough to do as a sophmore.

  115. A'bunadh says:

    Woogie63: Nobody saying that it is ok to be out scored.

    My point is RNH is set up to succeed and contribute in a meanful way to scoring.Great time to demonstrated that he is the 200 foot player we want him to be, in my mind that means (out)scoring his opponent’s line.

    If going up against the opposition’s top lines is being set up to succeed I’d hate to see what being set up to fail is.

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR,

    Anybody know what generational talent produced these box cars 1029 0 45 45

    That has to be a record for most assists without a goal.

    Marty had 45 assists too, but got 2 goals.

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers

    “He has a very high hockey IQ & the toolkit to go with it. Those are the qualities of high-end two-way centres.” Coach McLellan on @RNH_93

  118. spoiler says:

    1. Fayne will be a difficult trade to find a dance partner for, if not impossible. This is not a reliable strategy. It’s one that TMac should explore, yes, but I’d bet he’s been exploring it for months now and… nothing has happened. Maybe some time dropping off the contract helps, but that’s, again, unlikely.

    2. Calling for the return of a player who left under poor circumstances seems like an annual ritual of masochism here, yet NEVER happens. There’s nothing in the Gagner situation that leads me to believe “this time it’s different”. What GM on this planet would even consider taking the risk of that move blowing up?

    3. Seeing the TMac quote in JW’s tweet was sweet. Well done, JW! I’ve been saying the same thing in game day threads for years here, so it’s nice to have some vindication. Only thing missed in the excerpt was that special teams can mess with hard matching too. Special teams shifts have shortened considerably over the past few years to overcome this issue, but it’s next to impossible in a whistle heavy game.

  119. who says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    If we’re truly trying to think like ‘Chiarelli’ or any GM for that matter, I think we need to embrace the idea that the GM is stocking his development pipeline with the goal of those players becoming his procurement solution of choice. Sooner rather than later, Chia wants to get out of the game of plugging roster holes with free agents or lateral trades. Not only is the homegrown talent drafted with a certain team system and organizational role in mind, they are far more cap efficient which will be crucial to reach the roster balance tipping point required to win the Cup.

    Sather didn’t bury players like Steve Smith, Huddy, Mironov, Jason Smith, etc. on the third pairing and make them force the issue. He gave his young defenceman progressively more responsibility and graduated them up the depth chart as they found their games. Players respond very well to this incidentally, They want to be challenged and trusted. Particularly alpha dogs like Nurse.

    If you swap Nurse in for Russell next season, does that make you a demonstrably worse team? I don’t think it does, and most importantly, it gives you a full season of Nurse alongside a vet mentor in Sekera, and a development plan that is challenging this potential 5 tool Dman to elevate his game with more mins and stiffer competition. I would much rather have Nurse with 150GPs under his belt including a full season in the second pairing going into next year’s playoffs as opposed to a fading free agent likely past his best buy date.

    Now, you can argue the NHL is not a development league, but eventually for every young D, you have to move them up the depth chart and give them the reps to see if they sink or swim.

    Bottom line: Chiarelli has invested considerable effort in restocking the pipeline with young D. Imo, you’re crazy if you think he’s gone to all that effort only to block this talent on the depth chart with an interim FA signing on a prohibitive cap hit.

    Man you are killing it today.

  120. spoiler says:

    VOR,

    VOR, I’m going to derive great joy from just reading about the metrics you have chosen and why, before you even get to evaluating the actual drafts.

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    NURSE, DARNELL 40.5
    GRYBA, ERIC 34.5

    Since Nurse played so much with Gryba, I sliced the data even thinner:

    Nurse GF% overall 50%
    Nurse GF% with Gryba 33.3%
    Nurse GF% without Gryba 54.5%

    Nurse GF% with McDavid and with Gryba 75%
    Nurse GF% with McDavid and without Gryba 66.7%

    Nurse GF% without McDavid and with Gryba 12.5% (!!!! that’s over 200 minutes too…..)

    And finally, a measure of a man without the rocket or the anchor:

    Nurse GF% without McDavid and without Gryba 48.3%

    Well, looks like Nurse is a NHLer as long as he’s not with Gryba this year.

    I still don’t play him 2nd pair next year.

    I understand giving your players a chance to shine moving up the depth chart, but that’s done via injuries and not the training camp roster.

    You can’t start someone in the top 4 at the beginning of the year with the *hope* that they can handle it.

    That’s what MacTavish did.

    Nurse will get plenty of time to earn his way up the depth chart.

    The top 4 was extremely healthy this year except for Russell missing some time.

    McLellan played Benning there, so we know who he thought could handle it more at the time.

    Nurse will get a chance too.

    Also,

    Holy Moly I had no idea that Gryba was that big a drag on Nurse.

    That’s crazy.

  122. spoiler says:

    VOR: Anybody know what generational talent produced these box cars 1029 0 45 45?

    Belfour was the name I typed into Google… his numbers were close: 963, 0-34-34. 1965 birthday, but forgot he signed as an FA, in ’87.

    Now I will go look it up, you bastard.

  123. spoiler says:

    Fuck. Him. Never liked that guy. Generational numbers were partly due to a tech advantage.

  124. spoiler says:

    VOR,

    Access to Europe changing has to be a thing too…

    Edit:

    Wow. The number of hits in the later rounds of the ’84 draft is astounding.

  125. season not played says:

    They could consider carrying 8 D as well.

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera Benning
    Nurse Gryba
    Reinhart Fayne

    Pretty good chance they won’t be as healthy next year. Try and turn a couple of the bottom guys into swing men for the fourth line. Tho that doesn’t seem to happen very much anymore.

  126. spoiler says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Holy Moly I had no idea that Gryba was that big a drag on Nurse.
    That’s crazy.

    Impossible to say, or agree, without any TOI provided.

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here’s the same exercise, but with CF%.

    These look a lot more normal.

    Nurse CF% overall 51%

    Nurse CF% with Gryba 52.0%
    Nurse CF% without Gryba 50.3%

    Nurse CF% with McDavid and with Gryba 60.5%
    Nurse CF% with McDavid and without Gryba 57.4%

    Nurse CF% without McDavid and with Gryba 48.5%

    And finally,
    Nurse GF% without McDavid and without Gryba 47.7%

    Still can’t say Nurse excelled at 3rd pair.

    Your 3rd pairing Dmen should excel there before moving up.

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    spoiler: Impossible to say, or agree, without any TOI provided.

    Nurse TOI overall 670min

    Nurse TOI with Gryba 288min
    Nurse TOI without Gryba 382min

    Nurse TOI with McDavid and with Gryba 85min
    Nurse TOI with McDavid and without Gryba 106min

    Nurse TOI without McDavid and with Gryba 202min

    And finally,
    Nurse TOI without McDavid and without Gryba 276min

  129. digger50 says:

    VOR,

    Do spiders get headaches?

  130. Gerta Rauss says:

    spoiler: Fayne will be a difficult trade to find a dance partner for, if not impossible. This is not a reliable strategy. It’s one that TMac should explore, yes, but I’d bet he’s been exploring it for months now and… nothing has happened. Maybe some time dropping off the contract helps, but that’s, again, unlikely.

    I agree

    Fayne’s time with the org is done imo-his games played are a tell. They played him 2 games, just enough to qualify for the expansion draft (70 games) and then buried him. I don’t like the buyout option either but that’s where we’re headed barring an opportunity to move him down the road

    I think the only chance we might have to move him is if another team needs a D that has played 70 games over the last 2 years to qualify for the expansion draft, and even then, we’d probably have to retain 1/2 salary to make it palatable (which, in the end, would still be more attractive than buying him out)

    This ,of course, would mean we’d have to offer a contract to Gryba for us to meet the expansion draft rules ( I could live with that, I like Gryba as the 7/8 D)

  131. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Is Leon a replaceable NHL er?

    Forgive me for asking woodguy, but have you ever explained why you like goal share so much? I’ve noticed you’ve been touting that lately, but I dunno if I’ve read a reasoning. Not that you have to explain, and you prolly have explained.

    Isn’t goal share just even strength plus/minus?

  132. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    NURSE, DARNELL40.5
    GRYBA, ERIC34.5

    Since Nurse played so much with Gryba, I sliced the data even thinner:

    Nurse GF% overall 50%
    Nurse GF% with Gryba 33.3%
    Nurse GF% without Gryba 54.5%

    Nurse GF% with McDavid and with Gryba 75%
    Nurse GF% with McDavid and without Gryba 66.7%

    Nurse GF% without McDavid and with Gryba 12.5% (!!!! that’s over 200 minutes too…..)

    And finally, a measure of a man without the rocket or the anchor:

    Nurse GF% without McDavid and without Gryba 48.3%

    Well, looks like Nurse is a NHLer as long as he’s not with Gryba this year.

    I still don’t play him 3rd pair next year.

    I understand giving your players a chance to shine moving up the depth chart, but that’s done via injuries and not the training camp roster.

    You can’t start someone in the top 4 at the beginning of the year with the *hope* that they can handle it.

    That’s what MacTavish did.

    Nurse will get plenty of time to earn his way up the depth chart.

    The top 4 was extremely healthy this year except for Russell missing some time.

    McLellan played Benning there, so we know who he thought could handle it more at the time.

    Nurse will get a chance too.

    Also,

    Holy Moly I had no idea that Gryba was that big a drag on Nurse.

    That’s crazy.

    Nurses numbers with Gryba were affected by a poor on ice shooting percentage of 2.6%.
    4 goals for, 8 goals against

    GF/60 of 0.84
    GA/60 of 1.67

    I like the goals against number. And if we look at the 3 forwards with the most TOI with Nurse were Maroon,  McDavid and Leon one would expect a better goals for number even with Gryba.

    Looking at Gryba and Nurse together
    CF% 52.31
    SF% 49.84
    SCF% 49.8
    xGF% of 49.7%

    So they were not getting their heads caved in and then if we look at the on ice metrics for and compare to the the top 7 D pairs in TOI shots for average

    corsi for/60
    Nurse Gryba 57.27
    Oiler D pair avg 54.62

    shot for/60
    Nurse Gryba 32.21
    Oiler D pair avg 29.29

    expected goals for/60
    Nurse Gryba 2.68
    Oiler D pair avg 2.62

    we see that the offense should not have been stifled.

    The bigger issue for Nurse is the fact that when he is on the ice, the opposition gets too many shot attempts from the slot and many of these lead to goals.

    The Oilers could put him in the top 4 and “hope” he makes huge progress this summer, but this team is far removed from hope.

    Nurse in the 3rd pairing next year is the right thing to do.

  133. 106 and 106 says:

    From Friedman’s 30 Thoughts:

    19. It is very rare that players reach out to me to promote their coaches, but one did last week. He texted on behalf of AHL Grand Rapids coach Todd Nelson, who was in Edmonton before Todd McLellan. The Griffins are up 2–0 on Milwaukee in the first round of the playoffs. He felt Nelson deserved more “buzz” around his name.

    Anton Lander strikes again.

  134. spoiler says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    This looks closer to what my eye is telling me. Good on Padre, for pointing out the shooting percentage skewing the GF numbers. The splits are pretty light, if 20 games is our line in the sand for samples, and thus subject to weirdness.

    IMO, the thing about moving up is ideally you want it done with a partner who can cover the learning curve. The only defenseman on the roster that can do that is Stache, and he’s busy doing other things.

  135. treevojo says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    I’m always amazed by how much this fanbase underrates Nurse.

    I mostly agree.

    I think Nurse’s nhl numbers so far pale in comparison to the defender he will become.

    With the experience he is gaining now and with another summer of training and a full regular season next year I will be shocked if he isn’t playing top 4 minutes in next years playoffs.

    Sometimes the eyes don’t lie.

    Big Nurse fan.

  136. spoiler says:

    Gerta Rauss: This ,of course, would mean we’d have to offer a contract to Gryba for us to meet the expansion draft rules ( I could live with that, I like Gryba as the 7/8 D)

    Would we? He’s on the roster, under contract at the time of the draft. I admit I’m largely ignoring the rules till we can ignore them no longer. But AFAIK pending FAs count towards teams’ expansion requirements.

  137. frjohnk says:

    Running more numbers for the D pairs.

    Looking at the D pairs that played more than 130 together ( 7 sets) and Nurse and Benning were the worst.

    CF% FF% SF% xGF% SCF%
    45.81 43.82 40.8 44.41 47.83

    Heck they were even worse than Russell and Larsson ( which was not terrible) who had together

    CF% FF% SF% xGF% SCF%
    46.76 46.89 49.66 48.23 51.11

    But we know that McLellan likes goal metrics and Nurse and Benning do better here, in which they had 7 goals for and 6 against. This is the only positive metric they had together all year.

  138. Gerta Rauss says:

    spoiler: Would we? He’s on the roster, under contract at the time of the draft. I admit I’m largely ignoring the rules till it we can ignore them no longer.But AFAIK pending FAs count towards teams’ expansion requirements.

    I think the D man you are exposing to the draft has to have a signed contract for 17/18

    *edit-in addition to the other requirements ie: 30 NHL games in 16/17 or 70 games in the last 2 seasons

    *edit 2-it’s 40 games in 16/17 or 70 over the last 2

  139. treevojo says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Heh heh last time the Oilers took out the Sharks they took out the Ducks in the very next series.
    *cackles maniacally*

    Actually they took out the “mighty ducks” causing Anaheim to immediately drop “mighty” from their name.

    With the current team employing ex Canuck douche bags such as Kesler and Bieksa it is only fair for them to be known as lame ducks.

    Oilers in five

    Book it!

  140. VOR says:

    Just for those who were curious,

    1029 0 45 45 is the stat line for Patrick Roy.

    Digger 50, I suggest if this posts that you check out the link. Spider brains are amazing, fill up to 80% of their body cavity. So is it possible that they get headaches, probably.

    https://braindecoder.com/post/spider-brain-great-mystery-in-a-tiny-head-1094514994

    Spoiler, yes you can see the effects of the influx of European free agents and to a lesser extent the effect of the first big push to sign college free agents.

  141. Professor Q says:

    treevojo: Actually they took out the “mighty ducks” causing Anaheim to immediately drop “mighty” from their name.

    With the current team employing ex Canuck douche bags such as Kesler and Bieksa it is only fair for them to be known as lame ducks.

    Oilers in five

    Book it!

    Although it was the first series that they tested out just using Anaheim Ducks, if I recall correctly. Not a bad third jersey, to be honest.

    I always loved Mighty Ducks of Anaheim as well as the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

  142. classict says:

    frjohnk,

    I think most of that time with Nurse was after Benning’s injury? I’m not sure where that could be checked.

    If that’s true it could be part of the reason their numbers aren’t great. Assuming, as I think a few people do, that the injury impacted his play afterwards.

  143. Stelio Kontos says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Gagner

    Gagner is a goog pp guy. He can’t skate and is stupid defensively, which makes him a liability 5×5. He is much better than two b-list rookies who might not be in the league two years from now.

    I hated Gagner, but you have to respect he scored 50pts last year, and has some skills. He had more points than the other two combined. He will be too expensive, and redundant imo in that he is a pp passer rather than a shooter.

  144. classict says:

    frjohnk,

    And actually Puckalytics is showing completely different numbers than you have for Nurse & Benning

    Figured it out. You’re missing 113 minutes where Nurse played with Matthew Benning not Matt Benning 😉 in those minutes they played quite well.

  145. Bag of Pucks says:

    treevojo: I mostly agree.

    I think Nurse’s nhl numbers so far pale in comparison to the defender he will become.

    With the experience he is gaining now and with another summer of training and a full regular season next year I will be shocked if he isn’t playing top 4 minutes in next years playoffs.

    Sometimes the eyes don’t lie.

    Big Nurse fan.

    He’s yet to play 80 GPs in this league. I think people sometimes forget that.

    KBom is one year older and this is the season the light finally turned on for him.

    Suspect the same thing will happen for Nurse next year.

    This team is finally in a good place where these prospects aren’t being automatically fed the toughest minutes and they can learn these lessons without it costing the team games. Nice place to be.

    When Klefbom went out last game, Nurse was automatically elevated alongside Larsson. That’s a positive arrow imo and speaks to TMac’s comfort level with the player’s development.

  146. rickithebear says:

    RNH: 6’0″ 187 4yr @ 6M
    Averages: gm/EVG/PPG/EVA/PPA/+/-
    69/11/4/17/7/-10
    7.60 PKGA/60
    44.7 FO%; 30.4% OZF; 29.5 DZF; 40.1 NZF

    Hanzal 6’6″ 226 UFA
    averages
    68gm/12/4/16/7/-3
    5.88 PKGA/60
    56.2 FO%; 30.5 OZF; 35.5 DZF; 34.0 NZF

    Pouliot 6’3′ 200 2 @ 4M
    Averages
    61/8/3/12/2/ -6
    5.34 PKGA/60

    D. King 6’3″ 232 UFA
    averages
    80/12/0/11/0/-3
    3.19 PKGA/60

    the top one makes me confortable to do a trade with nuge!

  147. Ducey says:

    106 and 106:
    From Friedman’s 30 Thoughts:

    19. It is very rare that players reach out to me to promote their coaches, but one did last week. He texted on behalf of AHL Grand Rapids coach Todd Nelson, who was in Edmonton before Todd McLellan. The Griffins are up 2–0 on Milwaukee in the first round of the playoffs. He felt Nelson deserved more “buzz” around his name.

    Anton Lander strikes again.

    I was interested to read 20 of the thoughts on what BUF might do at GM. But Elliott missed the biggest problem there. That’s that the owner, Pegula, and by the sounds of it, his wife, have their hands in hockey ops decisions.

    I would think most competent GM’s and coaches would not want any part of that.

    Fortunately, since the Yak draft, and the installation of Bobby Nicholson, our owner seems to be more interested in building the ice district and chasing starlets.

  148. N64 says:

    classict:
    frjohnk,

    And actually Puckalytics is showing completely different numbers than you have for Nurse & Benning

    Figured it out. You’re missing 113 minutes where Nurse played with Matthew Benning not Matt Benning 😉 in those minutes they played quite well.

    He needs to go back to his full name full time.

  149. blainer says:

    frjohnk: Nurses numbers with Gryba were affected by a poor on ice shooting percentage of 2.6%.
    4 goals for, 8 goals against

    GF/60 of 0.84
    GA/60 of 1.67

    I like the goals against number.And if we look at the 3 forwards with the most TOI with Nurse were Maroon, McDavid and Leon one would expect a better goals for number even with Gryba.

    Looking at Gryba and Nurse together
    CF% 52.31
    SF% 49.84
    SCF% 49.8
    xGF% of 49.7%

    So they were not getting their heads caved in and then if we look at the on ice metrics for and compare to the the top 7 D pairs in TOI shots for average

    corsi for/60
    Nurse Gryba 57.27
    Oiler D pair avg 54.62

    shot for/60
    Nurse Gryba 32.21
    Oiler D pair avg 29.29

    expected goals for/60
    Nurse Gryba 2.68
    Oiler D pair avg 2.62

    we see that the offense should not have been stifled.

    The bigger issue for Nurse is the fact that when he is on the ice, the opposition gets too many shot attempts from the slot and many of these lead to goals.

    The Oilers could put him in the top 4 and “hope” he makes huge progress this summer, but this team is far removed from hope.

    Nurse in the 3rd pairing next year is the right thing to do.

    I really like this. I am a big Nurse fan but we must be careful on how we deploy him. To my eye and this is why I really enjoy the stats you guys post as it really backs up what my eye tells me and my eye tells me Nurse is still 3rd pair.

    He is often too quick to ice the puck and still rushes his decisions at times. This is expected with the amount of games he has played.

    We have a potential top pairing D here but let him learn the correct way. Ease him in to a bigger role.

    And when we do move him up put him with Lars who I think is already a top guy by my eye. Bet next year Larsson really steps up to an even bigger role to be a top guy in the league overall.. Nurse and Lars will be the top pairing by next year come playoff time IMO..

    But give Nurse half the season easing him in to more minutes.. if he shows he’s ready.

  150. frjohnk says:

    More Dmen numbers.

    EDIT: OK this got out of hand, but since I crunched all these numbers here we go.

    Adam Larsson
    If Larsson is paired with a Dmen who can move the puck ( which is Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse) they have very good on ice metrics for. The surprising find in the counts against is that they are very high as well.

    In limited minutes Sekera and Larsson ( 71 mins) had the best D pair numbers by far.
    CF% FF% SF% xGF%
    56.02 56.49 55 57.04

    Nurse and Larsson ( this is our future tough minutes pairing)
    CF% FF% SF% xGF%
    52.42 52.58 56 58.48

    Klefbom and Larsson
    CF% FF% SF% xGF%
    49.8 51.36 51.66 50.24

    Lots of shots, scoring chances, goals and goals from the slot against when Larsson is on the ice ( except with Russell) but the good thing is that more is happening in the other end ( except with Russell)

    Russell
    He drags everybody down when it comes to on ice metrics for…….except Klefbom. Klefbom is so good he lifts up Russell to almost average in corsi, shot,s expected goals for metrics on the Oiler D pairings!!!!!

    And when we look at overall metrics Klefbom and Russell together
    CF% FF% SF% xGF%
    48.12 50.54 52.24 51.53

    Sekera
    With Larsson fantastic
    CF% FF% SF% xGF%
    56.02 56.49 55 57.04

    Same with Benning
    CF% FF% SF% xGF%
    53.49 53.29 53.35 54.625

    But of course dragged down by Russell ( should mention the two lefty thing here) so I dont mind the numbers much
    CF% FF% SF% xGF%
    45.48 48.48 48.62 49.97

    And I just realised we have two Matt Bennings and two Darnell Nurses so disregard some of my numbers from before.

    DARNELL.NURSE MATTHEW.BENNING ( the bad pair)
    CF% FF% SF% xGF%
    45.81 43.82 40.8 44.41
    DARNELL.NURSE MATTHEW.BENNING ( the good pair)
    CF% FF% SF% xGF%
    54.63 53.63 54.2 58.66

    Will try to update before I got to go.

  151. Bag of Pucks says:

    blainer: I really like this. I am a big Nurse fan but we must be careful on how we deploy him. To my eye and this is why I really enjoy the stats you guys post as it really backs up what my eye tells me and my eye tells me Nurse is still 3rd pair.

    He is often too quick to ice the puck and still rushes his decisions at times. This is expected with the amount of games he has played.

    We have a potential top pairing D here but let him learn the correct way. Ease him in to a bigger role.

    And when we do move him up put him with Lars who I think is already a top guy by my eye. Bet next year Larsson really steps up to an even bigger role to be a top guy in the league overall..Nurse and Lars will be the top pairing by next year come playoff time IMO..

    But give Nurse half the season easing him in to more minutes.. if he shows he’s ready.

    The good news in all of this imo is regardless of what we may agree or disagree on, I trust TMac to make the right call. His coaching and development of the D this year was top notch.

    Nice to have an HC we finally trust to make the right call on this. If he says Darnell has to stay 3rd pairing to start the season next year, that’s good enough for me. I’m just predicting that Nurse will have a stellar TC and force the issue to move up the depth chart : )

  152. Bag of Pucks says:

    frjohnk,

    The bad pair is post Benning’s injury?

  153. frjohnk says:

    classict,

    N64,

    Yup.

    DARNELL.NURSE MATTHEW.BENNING ( the bad pair) 132 minutes
    CF% FF% SF% xGF%
    45.81 43.82 40.8 44.41

    DARNELL.NURSE MATTHEW.BENNING ( the good pair) 113 minutes
    CF% FF% SF% xGF%
    54.63 53.63 54.2 58.66

  154. Side says:

    Ducey: I was interested to read 20 of the thoughts on what BUF might do at GM. But Elliott missed the biggest problem there. That’s that the owner, Pegula, and by the sounds of it, his wife, have their hands in hockey ops decisions.

    I would think most competent GM’s and coaches would not want any part of that.

    Fortunately, since the Yak draft, and the installation of Bobby Nicholson, our owner seems to be more interested in building the ice district and chasing starlets.

    If you Google ‘buffalo sabres gm’, it comes back with Buffalo Sabres / General Manager – Jack Eichel.

    Funny stuff.

    Also didn’t Pegula say that he wasn’t involved much with the decision to hire Murray? Sounds like he already tried the hands off approach and felt it didn’t work out for him.

  155. Woogie63 says:

    A’bunadh: If going up against the opposition’s top lines is being set up to succeed I’d hate to see what being set up to fail is.

    RNH is a 1OV, playing on an $18M line with Sekera and Russell, that is what I mean by built for success, This line imo, is built to play against the other teams top offensive line, they are, and should expect to attract the best players the other team.

  156. frjohnk says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    frjohnk,

    The bad pair is post Benning’s injury?

    Im running around corsica to figure it out but cant find out as it will not let me do a date query.

  157. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers


    “He has a very high hockey IQ & the toolkit to go with it. Those are the qualities of high-end two-way centres.” Coach McLellan on @RNH_93

    Yikes, when a coach points to a players high hockey IQ ….

  158. Roughneck says:

    Of note. HRR will track with the success of one building and one team in Orange.
    Were our CDN dollar within shouting distance of par rogers place and the edmonton oilers would be a cash pipleline into league coffers. Sadly our cdn dollar is mitigating the effect. It would be very revealing to see the game revenue disparity between Anaheim and Edmonton in this series.
    Anyone have any inputs or thoughts?

    If Anaheims game revenue is X what multiple of X is Edmontons?

  159. judgedrude says:

    digger50:
    VOR,

    Do spiders get headaches?

    My spider sense is tingling!

  160. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’m struck today by the parallels btw the “Leon is not a river pusher as a C” and the “Nurse is not ready for 2nd pairing” statements. In Leon’s case, I’m absolutely convinced he is a river pusher NOW. He simply needs to be put in that position with skilled linemates and the dataset/proof of concept will quickly follow to validate the hypothesis. It’s a case of the data lagging behind the real-time development of the player atm.

    With Nurse, and because D do not develop in a straight line, I think he’s ready for the leap next season, but I suspect his data will be very much a mixed bag over the first 50GPs and eventually stabilize over the last 30GPs. Over that first 50GPs, he’ll have some good nights as a second pairing stud and some not so good nights. That’s development. But the odd bad night should not invalidate the good nights that indicate a young defenceman finding his way with tougher mins and opps.

    Ultimately, much as Chia didn’t bring in a player to push Klefbom down the depth chart this season, I think he’ll do the same for Nurse next year. They’ll project their roster and envision Nurse to play 2nd pairing next year and only a disastrous showing in the preseason will get them to airlift in a vet. Cos much like Benning this season, if Nurse can plug into that role, it’s a massive fix both balance wise and from a cap management pov.

  161. blainer says:

    Bag of Pucks: The good news in all of this imo is regardless of what we may agree or disagree on, I trust TMac to make the right call. His coaching and development of the D this year was top notch.

    Nice to have an HC we finally trust to make the right call on this. If he says Darnell has to stay 3rd pairing to start the season next year, that’s good enough for me. I’m just predicting that Nurse will have a stellar TC and force the issue to move up the depth chart : )

    I totally agree with your take on the coach.

    I cannot remember the last time we had a coach making such smart decisions. He has done a remarkable job so far in the playoffs making IMO the right decisions with the blender and making most of us here look real dumb by his continuous decision to dress DD.

    I will give you that if Nurse comes to camp and shows he’s ready and a lot of that has to do with his learning on the job now then bring it on. Move him up.

    I would still keep him on a short leash in my mind. And I do think the coach will see it that way too if it’s not working. I have been watching Nurse closely lately and he is close IMO.

    I really think the rest of the playoffs will help him immensely. Lets hope we at least get through Anaheim.

  162. blainer says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I’m struck today by the parallels btw the “Leon is not a river pusher as a C” and the “Nurse is not ready for 2nd pairing” statements. In Leon’s case, I’m absolutely convinced he is a river pusher NOW. He simply needs to be put in that position with skilled linemates and the dataset/proof of concept will quickly follow to validate the hypothesis. It’s a case of the data lagging behind the real-time development of the player atm.

    With Nurse, and because D do not develop in a straight line, I think he’s ready for the leap next season, but I suspect his data will be very much a mixed bag over the first 50GPs and eventually stabilize over the last 30GPs. Over that first 50GPs, he’ll have some good nights as a second pairing stud and some not so good nights. That’s development. But the odd bad night should not invalidate the good nights that indicate a young defenceman finding his way with tougher mins and opps.

    Ultimately, much as Chia didn’t bring in a player to push Klefbom down the depth chart this season, I think he’ll do the same for Nurse next year. They’ll project their roster and envision Nurse to play 2nd pairing next year and only a disastrous showing in the preseason will get them to airlift in a vet. Cos much like Benning this season, if Nurse can plug into that role, it’s a massive fix both balance wise and from a cap management pov.

    Mr. BoP you are really saying good things today !!

  163. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: The bigger issue for Nurse is the fact that when he is on the ice, the opposition gets too many shot attempts from the slot and many of these lead to goals.

    Maybe…haven’t seen the maps but he and Benning didn’t allow a shot below the circles in games 2 and 3. Outside of blowout gm 4 they have been good in that regard.

  164. stephen sheps says:

    VOR: I am edging ever closer to going live with my own blog

    F*$k yes! That’s really good news. Very excited to see you with your own page.

  165. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: Maybe…haven’t seen the maps but he and Benning didn’t allow a shot below the circles in games 2 and 3. Outside of blowout gm 4 they have been good in that regard.

    In the playoffs, their numbers are better, even with the blow out loss. Very good arrows, but small sample size.

    EDIT: In game 2, I believe the Oilers allowed at 5 on 5, only 6 shots from the slot and the area by the slot.

    That was a fantastic game defensively

  166. A'bunadh says:

    Woogie63: RNH is a 1OV,playing on an $18M line with Sekera and Russell, that is what I mean by built for success,This line imo, is built to play against the other teams top offensive line, they are, and should expect to attract the best players the other team.

    I can’t argue with Nuge being a 1OV and making $6m. No idea what that has to do with his role on the team and how that dictates what his production has to be. (I can argue with him playing on a line with Sekera and Russell though).
    Your original post was to the effect that Nuge needs to score 6-8 points this series. (you do know that McDavid only scored 1 EV point last series, and only 4 total, right?) The flaw in that is that if his line scores 6 goals but allows 10, he gets the 6 points you say he needs but we lose. Nuge led the team in shots and had some good looks, and of course it would have been nice for a couple to go in. Even though they didn’t, his play kept the Pavelski/Thornton line in the Dzone more than the Ozone and off the scoresheet. To me that is a huge victory. McDavid/Draisaitl will have to and should outscore the Kesler line. If that happens and Nuge saws off with Getzlaf, we win. Production is important but limiting the other teams production is just as important. We can score 4 goals and win the series and we can score 40 goals and lose the series.
    Instead of saying how many individual points a player needs, let’s hope they each have a positive goal differential, even if its a +1/0.

  167. frjohnk says:

    I will say that I like the idea of Nurse in the top 4 in his 3rd year a whole lot better than Nurse on the top pair 10 games into his career.

    Running threw these Dmen numbers and I am noticing Russell is drag on alot of “for’ metrics for the forwards.
    Corsi for goes down with Russell
    Shots for go down with Russell
    Shot attempts for go down with Russell
    Points for go down with Russell

    Just for example RNH with Russell points per 60 of 1.37
    RNH without Russell points per 60 of 1.69.

    McDavid with Russell points per 60 of 2.48
    McDavid without Russell points per 60 of 3.06

    I do wonder if a good summer for Nurse and if he replaces Russell we end up seeing more offense.

    Who knows.

  168. Lowetide says:

    If Nurse earns the move up the depth chart, I am thrilled. Suspect running Nurse-Benning as third pair is the wise choice, and then allowing one or the other (or both) to force their way up the depth chart. Edmonton finally has the kind of depth to let this happen naturally.

    WG: Wow on the Gryba!

  169. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Is Leon a replaceable NHL er?

    Forgive me for asking woodguy, but have you ever explained why you like goal share so much? I’ve noticed you’ve been touting that lately, but I dunno if I’ve read a reasoning. Not that you have to explain, and you prolly have explained.

    Isn’t goal share just even strength plus/minus?

    Much like I did with Nurse, you need to look at WOWY to get a clearer picture.

    Leon is 21 and when he played with Lucic and Pouliot in a lot of his time away from McDavid.

    They were poor in goal share.

    GF% w/ Lucic was 41% (PDO 966 – CF% 52.8%)
    GF% w/ Pouliot was 35% (PDO 966 – CF% 48.7)

    My biggest omission was not putting up the PDOs of everyone away from McDavid. Important context, Padre addressed some of that.

    Why GF%?

    Goals determine who wins hockey games.

    CF%, FF% are used when the samples are small because they’ll predict future GF% better than other metrics (xGF% has predicted well in the last couple of years as Georges has shown recently)

    We are at the end of the year and the GF% is in the bag so we can examine is to see what happened.

    As always its should be couched with PDO and probably CF% or xGF for as much context as possible.

    GF% is close to +/- except it doesn’t count EN goals, shorties, 4v4, 3v3.

    When we look to predict next year I’ll go back to shot metrics as they predict future GF% better than GF% does.

    Its has always been about goals.

    It just that you can’t use goals in small samples.

  170. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk:
    More Dmen numbers.

    EDIT: OK this got out of hand, but since I crunched all these numbers here we go.

    Adam Larsson
    If Larsson is paired with a Dmen who can move the puck ( which is Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse) they have very good on ice metrics for.The surprising find in the counts against is that they are very high as well.

    In limited minutes Sekera and Larsson ( 71 mins) had the best D pair numbers by far.
    CF%FF%SF%xGF%
    56.0256.495557.04

    Nurse and Larsson ( this is our future tough minutes pairing)
    CF%FF%SF%xGF%
    52.4252.585658.48

    Klefbom and Larsson
    CF%FF%SF%xGF%
    49.851.3651.6650.24

    Lots of shots, scoring chances, goals and goals from the slot against when Larsson is on the ice ( except with Russell) but the good thing is that more is happening in the other end ( except with Russell)

    Russell
    He drags everybody down when it comes to on ice metrics for…….except Klefbom.Klefbom is so good he lifts up Russell to almost average in corsi, shot,s expected goals for metrics on the Oiler D pairings!!!!!

    And when we look at overall metrics Klefbom and Russell together
    CF%FF%SF%xGF%
    48.1250.5452.2451.53

    Sekera
    With Larsson fantastic
    CF%FF%SF%xGF%
    56.0256.495557.04

    Same with Benning
    CF%FF%SF%xGF%
    53.4953.2953.3554.625

    But of course dragged down by Russell ( should mention the two lefty thing here) so I dont mind the numbers much
    CF%FF%SF%xGF%
    45.4848.4848.6249.97

    And I just realised we have two Matt Bennings and two Darnell Nurses so disregard some of my numbers from before.

    DARNELL.NURSEMATTHEW.BENNING ( the bad pair)CF%FF%SF%xGF%45.8143.8240.844.41
    DARNELL.NURSEMATTHEW.BENNING( the good pair)CF%FF%SF%xGF%54.6353.6354.258.66

    Will try to update before I got to go.

    Good stuff Padre.

    I suggest using puckalytics to run each pair with a C to see how they affect the C.

    Running the overalls includes McDavid and I would have a CF% of 50 and GF% of 55% with him.

    You can get a good feel for how the Dpairs effect each C when you break it out.

  171. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    He’s yet to play 80 GPs in this league. I think people sometimes forget that.
    KBom is one year older and this is the season the light finally turned on for him.

    Klef’s fancies have been good since he got here. We nicknamed him dreamy early on 14/15 because of what he was doing.

    Klefbom put up a 51.4% CF with Schultz vs the toughs in 14/15.

    This isn’t his “break out season”

    This is his first healthy season on a team that has Connor McDavid.

    Also,

    Nurse has 115 games in the NHL.

    When Klef put up those numbers with Schultz he was 21 and had 17 NHL games played before the season started.

    This is Nurse’s 21 year old year, just like 14/15 was Klef’s.

    I think Nurse is much better this year than last and I hope he continues along that path.

  172. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for the correction on the GPs. I just grabbed it off the first hit – damn Wikipedia : )

  173. Bag of Pucks says:

    blainer: Mr. BoP you are really saying good things today !!

    Why, thank you mate.

  174. theres oil in virginia says:

    This is a fabulous thread.

  175. BONE207 says:

    Pescador: How did you get access to my medical file?

    I come from the communist era health care system where $$$ talks

  176. godot10 says:

    How does one NOT solve a problem like Kris Russell, AND make the problem materially worse?

    Answer: Cody Franson

  177. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for the correction on the GPs. I just grabbed it off the first hit – damn Wikipedia : )

    Ha!

    All good.

  178. GCW_69 says:

    I think LT has it right that the disposition of Fayne’s and Pouliot’s contracts will drive the summer procurement.

    If they can’t find a way to unload both, then they need to go hunting value contracts. In that context, Franson becomes interesting if you can get him for 3rd pair money. The stink of Buffalo probably pushes him to a 1 yr contract. Having his shot on the second PP unit would probably be a big help to Nuge and Eberle.

    If they decide they need to trade Nuge or Eberle, I suspect we see a defender coming back, so those speculating Eberle for Hamonic probably are on the something. Although, it would not surprise me to see a bigger deal where Edmonton tries to grab Strome to shore up the centre depth.

    Hamonic seems to be a buy low opportunity, so maybe Ebs, Sleppy and a draft pick gets you Hamonic and Strome?

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