VALUE CONTRACTS

It always comes down to this. When the Edmonton Oilers went to the SCF in 2006, the team had myriad value deals (six in total). Let’s quickly review them (alpha order):

  1. Marc Andre Bergeron ($931k). Bergeron played 1600 minutes in the 05-06 season, 350 of that on the powerplay. He delivered 2.74/60 with the man advantage but was pretty solid at EVs (1/60) and his 15-20-35 for the season was exceptional for the price.
  2. Ales Hemsky ($901,740). Hemsky played 1375 minutes in the 05-06 season, slightly over 400 of them on the powerplay. His PP/60 number (6.17) was very nice, his EV number was 2.25. That PP number helped him lead the team in scoring (19-58-77) and he delivered 6-11-17 in the playoffs too. A wonderful payoff for less than a million, a season to remember.
  3. Shawn Horcoff ($1M). Horcoff played almost 1600 minutes, almost 300 on the PP and 225 on the PK. In 05-06 he went 3-3-6 on the PK (about 1.6/60), went 4.82/60 on the PP and then 2.44 at EVs and this was against the other team’s good players.
  4. Fernando Pisani ($611,800). In 05-06 he was excellent in the regular year and ridiculous in the postseason. Pisani played 1100 minutes in 05-06, 150 on the PP. He did a lot of heavy lifting at EVs and still managed to score 1.84/60 (he was 1.39 this past season) and 3.59 on the PP. Pisani was Guy Lafleur in the post season, 14-4-18 in a run I will never forget. At $611,800 he was ridiculous value.
  5. Jarret Stoll ($501,600). Stoll played 1500 minutes in 05-06, 410 on the PP and 200 on the PK. He was a pretty valuable hockey player. On the PP he was 4.53 (4.2 this season) and at EVs he was 2.35 (2.2 this season) on the way to 82gp, 22-46-68 totals. At the price, he was extremely valuable.
  6. Raffi Torres ($875,000). Raffi played 1100 minutes in 05-06, 224 of them on the PP. His EV number was 2.07 in 05-06 and his PP number 2.95. Torres’ biggest moments in the season came during the playoffs when he made some massive hits (one of which had an impact on the SJS series). At this price, he was a bargain.

That’s a monster, monster advantage for any NHL team. SIX men making under $1M large and playing substantial roles. That can make up for a lot of over-payment elsewhere, and gives a team a fantastic chance to ice a deep and balanced team.

POSSIBLE 2017-18 VALUE DEALS

  1. RD Matt Benning ($900,000). I think there’s a good chance he delivers a value contract next season. He did this year (62gp, 3-15-18) and should be even better in year two NHL. Manna from heaven.
  2. L Drake Caggiula ($925,000). He began the season injured and for the longest time it was unclear if he could score in the NHL (regular season: 60gp, 7-11-18). I still don’t know folks, but he looks like a player. Can he score 20 goals? If he can, that’s a real bargain. Contract includes a small bonus ($425,000) that may be reachable, making him even more of a value deal should it come to pass.
  3. R Zack Kassian ($1.5M this season, RFA in summer). Kassian is a player we can argue about, he scored seven goals and 24 points this season and is one his way to a raise. I’ll count him as a possible value deal and you can let me know how you feel about it.
  4. L Patrick Maroon ($1.5M). One of the true value contracts in the NHL this season, Maroon scored 27 goals, 24 at even strength. Maroon’s emergence for Edmonton after being acquired at the 2015 deadline gave the Oilers more options on LW and helped spread out scoring.
  5. LC Connor McDavid ($3.775M). Easiest call in the league, McDavid at this price is only available because NHL rules punish earning power during entry-level deals. You have just witnessed one of the greatest value seasons (may be the best) in cap history, Connor McDavid 2016-17. Another one on the way, God willing.
  6. R Jesse Puljujarvi ($3.425M). May be a long shot, I am including him here because there’s a chance he gets on a skill line and flourishes. Contract is $925,000 and the rest is bonus.
  7. R Anton Slepyshev ($925,000). He scored 10 points in 41 games while playing 11 minutes a night in 2016-17. If you double the number of games (full season) and give him 150 percent of his minutes, that gets you around 30 points overall. That would be a value contract in my opinion. There is a small bonus option ($400,000) that would increase his deal.

There are seven contracts I can see as being possible value deals. McDavid is a certainty, I would suggest Maroon and Benning have a strong chance too. After that, depends on health, deployment and performance. A nice list. Need more.

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129 Responses to "VALUE CONTRACTS"

  1. Kepler62 says:

    What about Darnell!!? (his bonus isn’t large if I remember correctly)

  2. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The question is how does a mature team (positions on the team being set) define value contracts? Not having overpaid players goes a long way in not necessitating too many ELCs or low cost players that aren’t that good.

    My messing with cap calculators says if you can pay at fair market rates for productivity you need 4-6 low cost contracts of an ELC/ vet mix, assuming $75m cap.

    Avoid 5M + one way defensemen, and you can carry a couple of Austins out side of Connor and Leon, a couple in the 2-3M range, and 4 x 4 M D, and Talbot. The rest on ELCs and low contracts. Of course ELCs carry bonus risks but players coming after JP are not likely to earn a lot of bonus, still contracts like Gryba are cap safe.

    The hard part for Chia is resigning guys after a great run and that usually leads to the overpaid contracts. We’ll see how smart he is. It would be better to deal them at peak value than risk a cap problem for players other than Connor and Leon. I hold out hope the players will all understand that playing on and maintaining a great team over time comes at a personal financial cost as well, and a shot at being on a team like the Oilers with a player like McDavid is a rare opportunity.

  3. John Chambers says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Well said. To put it another way you can afford an expensive luxury like Lucic if you’re able to find a Maroon and a Benning.

  4. geowal says:

    Nurse seconded. Also, does Letestu’s current season qualify? If so, he (could) do it again.
    Dark horse from the farm: Zyat Paigan

  5. blainer says:

    LT,

    A question for you and maybe somebody else could post on this also.. and that includes you Woodguy..

    After watching Reinhart play what I considered a possible revival game for his career I was thinking…

    Is there a Dman in his draft spot who has taken THIS long to find his way ?

    The most recent 1st rounder I can think of that seems to have finally made it is Forbort on LA.

    I can’t think of anyone like Griffin that has made it big in his draft spot this late in their careers. I think it would be great if he ended up possibly having an Alzner type of career .. which I think would be very valuable.

    Just wondering if you can think of a D that has taken a similar career path as Griff.

  6. Lowetide says:

    blainer:
    LT,

    A question for you and maybe somebody else could post on this also.. and that includes you Woodguy..

    After watching Reinhart play what I considered a possible revival game for his career I was thinking…

    Is there a Dman in his draft spot who has taken THIS long to find his way ?

    The most recent 1st rounder I can think of that seems to have finally made it is Forbort on LA.

    I can’t think of anyone like Griffin that has made it big in his draft spot this late in their careers. I think it would be great if he ended up possibly having an Alzner type of career .. which I think would be very valuable.

    Just wondering if you can think of a D that has taken a similar career path as Griff.

    Thomas Hickey took some time. Reinhart is still a prospect, but most guys chosen where he was bring substantial offense. That ranking had people thinking he was going to deliver more offense. He certainly could have a long and productive career in the NHL and that has happened many times. One good thing: he was not rushed like Luke Schenn, who became overpriced early in his career.

  7. treevojo says:

    Glad to see I wasn’t the only one thinking where is nurse?

  8. Clarkenstein says:

    Darnell – Yes
    Letestu – Yes
    Puljujarvi – HELL NO!!

  9. treevojo says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Darnell –Yes
    Letestu –Yes
    Puljujarvi – HELL NO!!

    Why so negative towards the young fin?

  10. Lowetide says:

    Klefbom could be a value deal as well. Larsson? Well if he plays solid defense that is a good price.

    Clarke: I like JP as a value deal if he flourishes on a scoring line. May not happen, but long road ahead.

  11. Jon K says:

    treevojo: Why so negative towards the young fin?

    Well, I think that he’s suggesting that Puljujarvi won’t bring enough offence next season to be worth the $3.4 cap.

    I think it’s extremely promising for next season if Benning, Caggiula, Slepyshev, and Puljujarvi can improve on their performances this season. History suggests some of them will not progress.

    The Steve Austins will conversely hamper the team if their production deteriorates at all next season. The Oilers are arguably striving in the postseason despite their lack of production.

    If they produce next season similar to expected performance the Oilers could conceivably have the coveted 3 offensive lines with McDavid and Draisaitl driving their own lines.

  12. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’d like to sidetrack a bit here if I might. I am a loyalist and read where the best things are. Of course for our Oilers it’s Lowetifkdwe (I’ll leave that he because it’s kind of funny). Then when I have time I read other good things.

    So in all of f the fan fare around the Oilers web the fan fare for Leon is of course on.As it should be.

    But I think we should all remember what a huge role McDavid plays in this. His peculiar set of skills makes it an absolute certainty that he has to be well attended to. Leon has been fantastic and better, but the role that a player like McDavid has in inspiring play in others and also drawing so much torward himself creates so much for others.

    Of course they have to put the puck in the net, but all props to Connor for his humility and leadership and when he learns what to do with getting swarmed in the O zone (all those other players open because of his double and triple teaming) Yikes!

    Edit, Woodguys phone

  13. treevojo says:

    Jon K: Well, I think that he’s suggesting that Puljujarvi won’t bring enough offence next season to be worth the $3.4 cap.

    I think it’s extremely promising for next season if Benning, Caggiula, Slepyshev, and Puljujarvi can improve on their performances this season. History suggests some of them will not progress.

    The Steve Austins will conversely hamper the team if their production deteriorates at all next season. The Oilers are arguably striving in the postseason despite their lack of production.

    If they produce next season similar to expected performance the Oilers could conceivably have the coveted 3 offensive lines with McDavid and Draisaitl driving their own lines.

    HELL NO!!

    That Isn’t a suggestion.

    It’s a statement.

    If he reaches all his bonuses causing his cap hit to be 3.4 mil it would mean that it was a bargain contract.

  14. Seismic Source says:

    Crosby is his own concussion spotter I guess. I hope he’s ok in his 50’s.

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    blainer:
    LT,

    A question for you and maybe somebody else could post on this also.. and that includes you Woodguy..

    After watching Reinhart play what I considered a possible revival game for his career I was thinking…

    Is there a Dman in his draft spot who has taken THIS long to find his way ?

    The most recent 1st rounder I can think of that seems to have finally made it is Forbort on LA.

    I can’t think of anyone like Griffin that has made it big in his draft spot this late in their careers. I think it would be great if he ended up possibly having an Alzner type of career .. which I think would be very valuable.

    Just wondering if you can think of a D that has taken a similar career path as Griff.

    Alzner was the highest end comparable for Reinhart actually, so its good that you mentioned him.

    Alzner didn’t establish himself as a NHL regular until his draft +5 year. This past year was Reinhart’s draft +5, so he’s slipped behind him.

    Hickey is another good one who made it late (draft +7 before he was a regular), albeit as a 3rd pair Dman.

    Braydon Coburn comes to mind as well. Drafted 8th, made it in draft +5.

    Now that Reinhart’s ELC is ending I think we can throw out his draft ranking and just judge him vs other RFA 3rd pair Dmen.

    Might be a handy value contract, might be a marginal NHL for his career.

  16. Seismic Source says:

    Is there a worry about an offer sheet for Drai? What if someone offers him the moon?

  17. Seismic Source says:

    And what does Kassian sign for? He’s getting a raise. 2? 2.5?

    All those goals getting called back won’t be so bad come summer.

  18. Professor Q says:

    Seismic Source:
    Is there a worry about an offer sheet for Drai?What if someone offers him the moon?

    What if Edmonton doesn’t let him get to that point?

  19. Lowetide says:

    treevojo: HELL NO!!

    That Isn’t a suggestion.

    It’s a statement.

    If he reaches all his bonuses causing his cap hit to be 3.4 mil it would mean that it was a bargain contract.

    Yes. That’s why I listed him.

  20. Professor Q says:

    Seismic Source:
    Crosby is his own concussion spotter I guess. I hope he’s ok in his 50’s.

    Might be his 30s-40s at this rate.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Seismic Source:
    Is there a worry about an offer sheet for Drai?What if someone offers him the moon?

    What Prof. said. PC can’t let it get that far.

  22. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Nurse isn’t a value contract because of his spot on the roster.

    He’s 3LD and that’s about a $1MM spot.

  23. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! Other inexpensive contacts hopefully for next year:

    1) Pitlick
    2) Nurse
    3) Reinhart
    4) Sexy college signing: Hi Foo!

    – Sleppy/Benning/Cags/Pitlick/Nurse/Reinhart/Foo/Gryba: you could have 8 guys all under a million that earn their keep, and are slotted properly. That’s a hell of a group IMO, if all healthy.

    – Pou, Ebs, DD and Hendrick: that $14MM+ of allocation that should be different next year.

    – This is going to be an awesome off-season regardless of how far we go: it’s OIL TIME

  24. Bank Shot says:

    Talbot’s deal is pretty sweet if he maintains anything resembling his play this year.

    23rd in caphit for goalies. 1st in our hearts. Was arguably a top five goaler this year.

    Oilers should be able to entice some kind of veterans on one year deals as well with their McDavid, and their playoff success.

  25. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Nurse isn’t a value contract because of his spot on the roster.

    He’s 3LD and that’s about a $1MM spot.

    He will be top four by playoffs next year.

    At which time it will become a bargain contract.

  26. blainer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Alzner was the highest end comparable for Reinhart actually, so its good that you mentioned him.

    Alzner didn’t establish himself as a NHL regular until his draft +5 year.This past year was Reinhart’s draft +5, so he’s slipped behind him.

    Hickey is another good one who made it late (draft +7 before he was a regular), albeit as a 3rd pair Dman.

    Braydon Coburn comes to mind as well.Drafted 8th, made it in draft +5.

    Now that Reinhart’s ELC is ending I think we can throw out his draft ranking and just judge him vs other RFA 3rd pair Dmen.

    Might be a handy value contract, might be a marginal NHL for his career.

    Ya I was thinking Alzner too and forgot about Coburn who would also be a good comparable if he actually makes it.

    His showing last night may breathe some life for his career. It was only one game but in his mind I bet it was a big confidence booster.

    I bet he thinks he can play at this level a lot more today than he did yesterday. I really am rooting for him as it has been a tough road and I also think he wants to prove that trade was a win for PC..

  27. Professor Q says:

    Bank Shot:
    Talbot’s deal is pretty sweet if he maintains anything resembling his play this year.

    23rd in caphit for goalies. 1st in our hearts. Was arguably a top five goaler this year.

    Oilers should be able to entice some kind of veterans on one year deals as well with their McDavid, and their playoff success.

    Definitely for now.

    Big decisions every year starting this year, though. Who stays and gets what upgrade, who leaves because of it?

    All those value contracts are coming to an end in a few months to only a years. Draisaitl, McDavid, Nurse, Talbot, the University Players, Puljujärvi (hopefully), Brossoit (not necessarily ‘value’ as we barely saw him), etc.

  28. flyfish1168 says:

    Just wondering if anyone knows why Hall is not at the World Hockey Championship? I’m surprised or was he even invited

  29. jp says:

    Bank Shot:
    Talbot’s deal is pretty sweet if he maintains anything resembling his play this year.

    23rd in caphit for goalies. 1st in our hearts. Was arguably a top five goaler this year.

    So true. Nice catch.

  30. New Improved Darkness says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Nurse isn’t a value contract because of his spot on the roster.

    If Reinhart were in the same spot at the same price (not outside how he was viewed internally when acquired), he would still be less of a value to the organization than Nurse, because of Nurse’s ++ physical tools. Reinhart, given his style, would need ++++ grittensity to balance out Nurse’s ++ edgy wheels.

    Evidently, per Woodguy’s rationale, we’re dealing here with nominal value, rather than strategic value (which also values possessing control over assets with greater upside potential—edit: a value portfolio as opposed to a value bench).

    Does Nurse’s hockey IQ have a Yakupovian glass ceiling? He seems to display moments in both directions. Perhaps a giant mug full of Anaheim was just what the doctor ordered (unlike some, I’m sure he can’t wait for more; he probably hums “gotta get me more Getzlaf” while falling asleep for the night).

  31. OF17 says:

    Approaching this from the other direction, which are the full value or worse contracts signed for 17/18?

    Nuge, Eberle, Lucic, Sekera, Pouliot, and Fayne are on my list. Note that this doesn’t mean I hate the guys, just that they’re getting paid in full.

    I don’t think it’s a coincidence that 4/6 of them are in danger of being phased out.

    I also don’t think it’s a coincidence that most of Chiarelli’s acquisitions/signings have come with the potential to outplay their salaries. Larsson, Talbot, Benning, Caggiula, Maroon, even Russell and Letestu. That’s a trend I bet will continue.

    My guess is we see both Nuge and Eberle traded for lesser but quite useful players with significantly lower salaries and 3+ years of term. Then, à la Taylor Hall, Chiarelli uses the cap space to add a UFA, hopefully of the Williams/Hanzal/Eaves tree. We may not like the deals in isolation, but I bet overall the team will be better and will have a much more desirable salary structure.

  32. treevojo says:

    flyfish1168:
    Just wondering if anyone knows why Hall is not at the World Hockey Championship? I’m surprised or was he even invited

    He turned down an invitation.

  33. flyfish1168 says:

    treevojo: He turned down an invitation.

    I guess to watch the Oiler games. 😉

  34. treevojo says:

    flyfish1168: I guess to watch the Oiler games.

    He is not a supporter.

  35. JorgeR04 says:

    Hey I’m going down to California for game 7 – does anyone know if there has been an adopted Oilers bar anywhere near Honda Centre to go have a few pre game beers at?

  36. Professor Q says:

    JorgeR04:
    Hey I’m going down to California for game 7 – does anyone know if there has been an adopted Oilers bar anywhere near Honda Centre to go have a few pre game beers at?

    I think the Oilers Nation crew stated that there were a few (might have to check Twitter?). Edmonton fans have taken over Orange County thus far.

  37. Ice Sage says:

    JorgeR04:
    Hey I’m going down to California for game 7 – does anyone know if there has been an adopted Oilers bar anywhere near Honda Centre to go have a few pre game beers at?

    Downtown Disney is where dreams come true

  38. Ice Sage says:

    Looking like we’ll have a new Stanley Cup champion this year. Pens just cratering

  39. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OF17,

    – I agree. This is the way of modern hockey. Many are stuck on the “I can’t believe we traded X for Y”

    – when in fact when you trade x you gain the salary room

    – In the Hall trade it was always: river pusher for D. I don’t know how many times I would correct posters that it was x for y and 1.8mm of cap (spent on Benning & Cags salaries). There is no one who would trade Larsson Benning and Cagulia for Hall. That’s what Chia got through multiple moves as you put it. Cap space means a lot.

    – so if we “trade” ebs we “gain” 6mm: Huge.

  40. Professor Q says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    OF17,

    – I agree. This is the way of modern hockey. Many are stuck on the “I can’t believe we traded X for Y”

    – when in fact when you trade x you gain the salary room

    – In the Hall trade it was always: river pusher for D. I don’t know how many times I would correct posters that it was x for y and 1.8mm of cap (spent on Benning & Cags salaries)

    – so if we “trade” ebs we “gain” 6mm: Huge.

    Just don’t spend it all in one place!

  41. Professor Q says:

    Ice Sage:
    Looking like we’ll have a new Stanley Cup champion this year.Pens just cratering

    The Pens fans are being a bit wishy-wOshie and leaving early.

  42. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Professor Q: Just don’t spend it all in one place!

    – yeah I just had a mind unlock and updated my post. Would you rather Hall or Larsson Benning and Cags?

    – the trade was LT’s fabled 3 for 1 and we all missed it!

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    treevojo: He will be top four by playoffs next year.

    At which time it will become a bargain contract.

    Like all chickens, I try not to count them before they are hatched.

  44. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Apropos of nothing, I was looking at some 5v5 numbers for the whole playoffs.

    GoalsForOn/60

    Player GF60
    LEON.DRAISAITL 4.10
    DAVID.DESHARNAIS 3.37
    PATRICK.MAROON 3.08
    ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 3.04
    MATT.BENNING 2.99
    CONNOR.MCDAVID 2.46
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 2.23
    DARNELL.NURSE 1.90
    ADAM.LARSSON 1.81
    ZACK.KASSIAN 1.77
    KRIS.RUSSELL 1.74
    BENOIT.POULIOT 1.61
    MILAN.LUCIC 1.47
    DRAKE.CAGGIULA 1.22
    ANDREJ.SEKERA 1.09
    MARK.LETESTU 0.90
    RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 0.78
    JORDAN.EBERLE 0.41

    I miss Davey and thought they could have used him yesterday, but secondary scoring in the playoffs is important.

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    treevojo: He will be top four by playoffs next year.

    At which time it will become a bargain contract.

    Like all chickens, I try to not count them before they’re hatched.

  46. Chachi says:

    treevojo: He is not a supporter.

    Easy.

  47. MrEd says:

    Good grief. Value contracts are a thing looking at the Blackhawks especially.
    Toews and Kane and their agents have hamstrung that organization.
    Isn’t Pittsburg in a better place?
    I’m hoping that McDavid and Leon and their respective representation are open to long views.

    Is the Bridge not a thing?

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    New Improved Darkness: If Reinhart were in the same spot at the same price (not outside how he was viewed internally when acquired), he would still be less of a value to the organization than Nurse, because of Nurse’s ++ physical tools.Reinhart, given his style, would need ++++ grittensity to balance out Nurse’s ++ edgy wheels.

    Evidently, per Woodguy’s rationale, we’re dealing here with nominal value, rather than strategic value (which also values possessing control over assets with greater upside potential—edit: a value portfolio as opposed to a value bench).

    Does Nurse’s hockey IQ have a Yakupovian glass ceiling?He seems to display moments in both directions.Perhaps a giant mug full of Anaheim was just what the doctor ordered (unlike some, I’m sure he can’t wait for more; he probably hums “gotta get me more Getzlaf” while falling asleep for the night).

    Its funny because that’s the 4th time in the last week I’ve seen Nurse compared to Yak.

    All the physical talent to excel, but the hockey IQ might be suspect.

    Nurse can be quite maddening.

    Last night he didn’t try to do too much and was excellent.

    Other times you watch and just don’t understand what his decision making process is.

  49. PDO says:

    Sleppy will be the best value contract on the Oilers next year not named Connor McDavid… he scores 20. Book it!

    Beyond that, I feel like Letestu, Klefbom and Talbot all deserve to be on the list.

    Chiarelli has done a lot of good GMing to help out the hockeying aspect of the team.

  50. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Like all chickens, I try to not count them before they’re hatched.

    The heading said possible 2017-18 value contracts.

    I thought Nurses name should be there.

    I have been bullish on Nurse for a while.

    With that Nurse top four by playoffs next year.

    Book it!

  51. Professor Q says:

    MrEd:
    Good grief.Value contracts are a thing looking at the Blackhawks especially.
    Toews and Kane and their agents have hamstrung that organization.
    Isn’t Pittsburg in a better place?
    I’m hoping that McDavid and Leon and their respective representation are open to long views.

    Is the Bridge not a thing?

    If we take the Pittsburgh model then we absolutely trade Nuge and Eberle, if we are emulating their path and who they have traded.

  52. MrEd says:

    Professor Q,
    Seems to me that that if you add up Crosby+Malkin and subtract that from Toews+Kane you end up with most of RNH.

  53. Soup Fascist says:

    You have a legitimate top defensive pair signed far in the future for less than $8.5 MM – combined. Is there a better value blue line in the league?

  54. MrEd says:

    Soup Fascist,

    Nope. Even with Sek we’re good on the back end for a good long while…
    Need Wood to find goalers!

  55. Scungilli Slushy says:

    New Improved Darkness: If Reinhart were in the same spot at the same price (not outside how he was viewed internally when acquired), he would still be less of a value to the organization than Nurse, because of Nurse’s ++ physical tools.Reinhart, given his style, would need ++++ grittensity to balance out Nurse’s ++ edgy wheels.

    Evidently, per Woodguy’s rationale, we’re dealing here with nominal value, rather than strategic value (which also values possessing control over assets with greater upside potential—edit: a value portfolio as opposed to a value bench).

    Does Nurse’s hockey IQ have a Yakupovian glass ceiling?He seems to display moments in both directions.Perhaps a giant mug full of Anaheim was just what the doctor ordered (unlike some, I’m sure he can’t wait for more; he probably hums “gotta get me more Getzlaf” while falling asleep for the night).

    Thank you for that. My windy post was trying to get at what is value? For me it is a solid roster being paid appropriately with draft picks and value UFAs filling spots that become unaffordable, who are traded for futures to keep the team a contender.

    The ebbs and flows of teams have to do with this very difficult and critical part of sustaining in a capped league. Which could easily come across to the fan base as cold especially for Oiler fans and the sell off history.

  56. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – yeah I just had a mind unlock and updated my post. Would you rather Hall or Larsson Benning and Cags?

    – the trade was LT’s fabled 3 for 1 and we all missed it!

    Wait….

    Doesn’t that now make it Hall for Larsson, Lucic, Benning, Caggulia?

    Seriously though, Peter traded a $6MM 1LW and then signed a $6MM 2LW.

    Don’t twist yourself in hoops over the cap saving when he didn’t save anything on LW.

    He added a 1/2 RD w/ a nice contract for Hall, but when he turns around and spends that exact salary on Lucic, there is no argument for cap savings.

  57. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    treevojo: The heading said possible 2017-18 value contracts.

    I thought Nurses name should be there.

    I have been bullish on Nurse for a while.

    With that Nurse top four by playoffs next year.

    Book it!

    I honestly hope he is too.

  58. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Its funny because that’s the 4th time in the last week I’ve seen Nurse compared to Yak.

    All the physical talent to excel, but the hockey IQ might be suspect.

    Nurse can be quite maddening.

    Last night he didn’t try to do too much and was excellent.

    Other times you watch and just don’t understand what his decision making process is.

    Nurse’s problem isn’t hockey IQ.

    It is the fact he knows he has the physical abilities to dominate his opposition but hasn’t refined his skills enough yet to consistently pull it off.

    In time he will dominate.

  59. Professor Q says:

    MrEd:
    Professor Q,
    Seems to me that that if you add up Crosby+Malkin and subtract that from Toews+Kane you end up with most of RNH.

    McDavid and Draisaitl.

    Nuge would take the place of Staal, and Eberle the place of Neal/Hossa/etc.

    Amd they had to be moved out.

  60. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Nurse has excelled with being big, fast and more athletic than his peers. Now that his peers are closer to his skill set it is hard to see whether he has hockey sense. For me it has to start showing in the next season if it’s there. Not all of the sudden Lidstrom, but a growth in reading the ice.

  61. MrEd says:

    99 is engaged. Wicked cool.

  62. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    treevojo: Nurse’s problem isn’t hockey IQ.

    It is the fact he knows he has the physical abilities to dominate his opposition but hasn’t refined his skills enough yet to consistently pull it off.

    In time he will dominate.

    Woodguy v2.0: Wait….

    Doesn’t that now make it Hall for Larsson, Lucic, Benning, Caggulia?

    Seriously though, Peter traded a $6MM 1LW and then signed a $6MM 2LW.

    Don’t twist yourself in hoops over the cap saving when he didn’t save anything on LW.

    He added a 1/2 RD w/ a nice contract for Hall, but when he turns around and spends that exact salary on Lucic, there is no argument for cap savings.

    – Nope.

    – All Lucic cost was money. Hall netted Larson and 1.8mm savings.

    – so if you want to look at it your way Lucic costs only 70% of Hall.

    – or that 1.8mm afforded chia the ability to sign cags and benning: 1 for 3. Or Larson and a replacement for Hall who was more to the philosophy and vision of Chia

  63. delooper says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Like all chickens, I try to not count them before they’re hatched.

    “Which came first, the chicken or the egg?”

    Apparently it’s the chicken.

  64. treevojo says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Nurse has excelled with being big, fast and more athletic than his peers. Now that his peers are closer to his skill set it is hard to see whether he has hockey sense. For me it has to start showing in the next season if it’s there. Not all of the sudden Lidstrom, but a growth in reading the ice.

    I see this kind of argument all the time.

    It doesn’t make sense to me.

    All highly touted players coming out of junior had some sort of skill set exceptional to their peers.

    That is why they get drafted so high.

    They all have to then learn how to play against men as boys until eventually they themselves become men.

    Watch out when Nurse evolves into a man.

  65. dustrock says:

    Soup Fascist:
    You have a legitimate top defensive pair signed far in the future for less than $8.5 MM – combined. Is there a better value blue line in the league?

    Extremely true, but I think we’re starting to talk about guys who may be outperforming their contract value.

    The original post by LT was talking about a ton of key Oilers making <$1m and having huge roles in the regular season and playoffs.

  66. delooper says:

    Scungilli: you sound like the St. Louis Blues GM, just before he traded Pronger away.

  67. ashley says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Wait….

    Doesn’t that now make it Hall for Larsson, Lucic, Benning, Caggulia?

    Seriously though, Peter traded a $6MM 1LW and then signed a $6MM 2LW.

    Don’t twist yourself in hoops over the cap saving when he didn’t save anything on LW.

    He added a 1/2 RD w/ a nice contract for Hall, but when he turns around and spends that exact salary on Lucic, there is no argument for cap savings.

    In a perfect world, I’d rather have Hall than Lucic. His speed better suits the roster.

    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Hall
    RNH
    Eberle
    Larsson
    Klefbom
    Talbot

    Wow.

    Lucic is a nice LW consolation prize though.

  68. Ice Sage says:

    Professor Q: The Pens fans are being a bit wishy-wOshie and leaving early.

    Groan!
    I think We underappreciate how much concussion(s) affect the quickness of
    Decision-making for weeks after (even when ‘physically cleared’ to
    Play). Washington-Preds final. One hand claps

  69. Ice Sage says:

    And CMcD needs Superquick line mates… the Sheary / Guentzel idea. Tyler
    toffoli would score 50

  70. sliderule says:

    Puljujarvi played well today.

    He played a full shift and had several good chances that he couldn’t convert.

    His skating which has always been touted looked much better than when with oilers.

    From what I saw he will continue to get a regular shift

    Here’s hoping he can start cashing his chances

  71. Scungilli Slushy says:

    treevojo,

    delooper,

    Good points , but Nurse had as a part of his draft rankings questions about the game away from his ridiculous physical talents.

    I love the skill set which is perfect for the game as it is. But I also have seen with our Oiler prospects that if you don’t see what it is that you’re looking for after a few seasons as they develop it probably isn’t there. Good players are fairly established in their early twenties.

    If third pair decision making is still a struggle next year the high bar is ‘probably’ set. Such as a young Gagner becoming a specialist 4th liner who is value only because cheap. The skill without NHL thinking doesn’t make a top player.

    Nothing wrong with that, a great third liner or second liner, but below hopes for a high first rounder also like Reinhardt. My point is that the hockey sense needs to start to show soon with Nurse, as with all players at that age who become top players.

  72. OF17 says:

    Last night was a glimpse at what Nurse could be with maturity. When combined with calm, directed decision making, Nurse’s physical gifts are a class above effective. My favorite thing from his game last night was the crispness of his passes. Absolute crackers on a few breakouts. He also made them quickly, which is the best way to beat teams with good structure. That passing with Nurse’s skating and nastiness was tantalizing.

  73. Pouzar says:

    Nurse and Yak eh. I don’t get that comparison. If Nurse has a similar hockey IQ to Yak he won’t be in the NHL for long playing defence which is a much tougher position to learn than wing.

  74. VOR says:

    Scungilli slushy,

    I was wondering if you know that there is a large and constantly growing body of evidence that shows:

    A) decision making is a teachable skill not purely an innate talent
    B) decision making gets better with age
    C) A and B are true in sports as well as a number of other fields of human endeavor
    D) it is even true in sports officiating

    Little tidbit, in social sports like hockey how good a ref is at the job is more dependent on their communication skill than any other factor but decision making improves as communication skills improve. As it happens there is recent research that shows as players learn to communicate better with each other, with their coach and with the officials the players’ in game decision making skills improve as well. What I am trying to say is that any team that gives up on a young player because of bad decision making is in need of better coaches not better players. Coaches who are better communicators and who can teach decision making. Veteran laden teams tend to win the StanleyCup because their decision making is better.

    Nurse will get better with age and with skilled instruction could improve quickly and significantly. If that improvement is rapid enough his decision making will develop to an acceptable level before his physical skills deteriorate to average.

    Maybe I should say, when I talk about working on the non-physical aspects of coaching decision making is one of the things I teach/coach. So I am sort of talking my book. However, if anyone is interested I can post numerous links on the subject.

  75. blackadder says:

    sliderule,

    I caught the third period, and overtime and was surprised to see Puljujarvi on the ice so much given the verbal on him prior to the tournament. But he played well and made an amazing pass to Fillipula in the OT.

    Loved Ray Ferraro’s comment as Puljujarvi got ready to take the first shot in the shootout. He noted that Puljujarvi didn’t play at all during the first five periods, then suddenly he was taking a regular shift, was on the ice during the 3×3 overtime and then was used in the shootout. He questioned whether Finland’s coach had any idea who Puljujarvi was.

  76. Stelio Kontos says:

    delooper:
    Scungilli: you sound like the St. Louis Blues GM, just before he traded Pronger away.

    How does Chris Pronger in St.Louis have any relation? He was a well established veteran with several seasons that were at or near 50pts, and in the dead puck era.

    I think we are overhyping some of our guys and under appreciating others. Darnell has the tool kit, and will be very useful. He is still ahead of Klefbom btw, as next year would be the equivalent of Klef last year. I have little doubt he would be shredding the AHL right now. Griffin might turn into a useful 3rd pair. Same as most said when we traded for him. I liked the idea of the move, they just identified the wrong player.

    I also think we are way too high on guys like JJ, Cags, Slepy, etc. They may be good, but none of them have a track record that screams impact player. Eberle is not expendable because Cags hit a post. I like these kids, really I do, but if you can get a UFA player to replace them, it’s probably a safer bet. And if we trade RNH or Ebs, we have to replace them with UFA or trade. We simply do no have the in house talent to replace them, regardless of playoff performance. People are saying that a guy like Slepyshev can replace one of those two, but fact of the matter is he has never scored 20 in any league above bantam. 2006 had a lot of guys who played out of their mind too, and as much as I love them, most didn’t become 20 year top 6 players.

  77. pocession charge says:

    Klefbom has had similar questions about his hockey sense as he’s developed. I definitely think he has ironed out a lot of his issues, but he still has a few wtf moments. He’ll continue to improve and I think Darnell will, too. He shows enough flashes of strong play to consider him trending in the right direction. Will he be top 4 by next year or 2019? When the day comes that Sekera is the 3LD, the Oilers will have a powerhouse defense.

    As for value contracts next year, they can now dangle ‘Cup contender’ to the summer end UFA’s who overpriced themselves in July. I’m sure there will be plenty of interest now.

  78. delooper says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Good points , but Nurse had as a part of his draft rankings questions about the game away from his ridiculous physical talents.

    I’m pretty sure before Pronger was drafted his scouting report didn’t indicate he was going to be “the next Chris Pronger”. He had flaws that people were pointing out.

  79. Stelio Kontos says:

    VOR:
    Scungilli slushy,

    I was wondering if you know that there is a large and constantly growing body of evidence that shows:

    A) decision making is a teachable skill not purely an innate talent
    B) decision making gets better with age
    C) A and B are true in sports as well as a number of other fields of human endeavor
    D) it is even true in sports officiating

    Little tidbit, in social sports like hockey how good a ref is at the job is more dependent on their communication skill than any other factor but decision making improves as communication skills improve. As it happens there is recent research that shows as players learn to communicate better with each other, with their coach and with the officials the players’ in game decision making skills improve as well. What I am trying to say is that any team that gives up on a young player because of bad decision making is in need of better coaches not better players. Coaches who are better communicators and who can teach decision making. Veteran laden teams tend to win the StanleyCup because their decision making is better.

    Nurse will get better with age and with skilled instruction could improve quickly and significantly. If that improvement is rapid enough his decision making will develop to an acceptable level before his physical skills deteriorate to average.

    Maybe I should say, when I talk about working on the non-physical aspects of coaching decision making is one of the things I teach/coach. So I am sort of talking my book. However, if anyone is interested I can post numerous links on the subject.

    One more thing to add. Not sure if true, but uni profs always stay that the brain does not fully develop until 25. The common sense and decision making parts are actually some of the last to fully develop.

  80. delooper says:

    Stelio Kontos: How does Chris Pronger in St.Louis have any relation? He was a well established veteran with several seasons that were at or near 50pts, and in the dead puck era.

    Its the form of the argument I’m critiquing. People are piling on Nurse when he’s far younger than most d-men are ever considered being “mature”. It’s a classic mistake, the recent most glaring example, being Pronger traded from St. Louis to Edmonton.

  81. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    Scungilli slushy,

    I was wondering if you know that there is a large and constantly growing body of evidence that shows:

    A) decision making is a teachable skill not purely an innate talent
    B) decision making gets better with age
    C) A and B are true in sports as well as a number of other fields of human endeavor
    D) it is even true in sports officiating

    Little tidbit, in social sports like hockey how good a ref is at the job is more dependent on their communication skill than any other factor but decision making improves as communication skills improve. As it happens there is recent research that shows as players learn to communicate better with each other, with their coach and with the officials the players’ in game decision making skills improve as well. What I am trying to say is that any team that gives up on a young player because of bad decision making is in need of better coaches not better players. Coaches who are better communicators and who can teach decision making. Veteran laden teams tend to win the StanleyCup because their decision making is better.

    Nurse will get better with age and with skilled instruction could improve quickly and significantly. If that improvement is rapid enough his decision making will develop to an acceptable level before his physical skills deteriorate to average.

    Maybe I should say, when I talk about working on the non-physical aspects of coaching decision making is one of the things I teach/coach. So I am sort of talking my book. However, if anyone is interested I can post numerous links on the subject.

    I agree. Often my style of writing leaves people unclear about the thought that I was trying to get across.

    My point is simply we should be able to see progression as players develop . Not perfection but progression, and we know top players establish early. If that progression doesn’t happen in areas of weakness every year we can bet that player has a limited ceiling.

    So for Nurse if next season the same struggles are there and improvement isn’t clear (and we know he has full support) his ceiling is coming in sight. That’s all I meant and I don’t think that is a stretch or not true.

    Edit- Nurse and all players

  82. "Steve Smith" says:

    delooper: Its the form of the argument I’m critiquing.People are piling on Nurse when he’s far younger than most d-men are ever considered being “mature”. It’s a classic mistake, the recent most glaring example, being Pronger traded from St. Louis to Edmonton.

    Pronger was recognized as a mature, elite defenceman before he was traded to Edmonton. He was an Olympian and a Norris winner and a team captain and an all-star. I’m not at all clear on what you’re talking about.

  83. Stelio Kontos says:

    I forgot to rip on Pitlick. He has not had more than 10 goals in a season since junior. A lot of that is injuries, but he has never demonstrated the capability to play more than 49 games in a season since junior, so I wouldn’t count on that. Remember when Gilbert Brule scored near 20? How about when we were touting Theo Peckman? Point is that the vast majority of NHL players play under 200 games. Expecting all or even most of these kids to pan out is dumb/naive.

    Chia like most of us didn’t think this team was good enough that it could be fixed in one year. That’s why he headed in with a massive hole wherever Leon wasn’t. He brought no guys who could have reasonably been projected as 3Line save Markie Mark, and made little moves to finish off the 2nd and 3rd pairing. He was conservative, because he didn’t want to sacrifice the future for a team that was probably going to finish just outside the playoffs. Don’t expect him to make that mistake again. This is a big off season, and he should be loaded for bear. We cannot trade eberle and leave a massive hole on the wing with the hope that slepyshev or caggiula can fill it.

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    delooper: Its the form of the argument I’m critiquing.People are piling on Nurse when he’s far younger than most d-men are ever considered being “mature”. It’s a classic mistake, the recent most glaring example, being Pronger traded from St. Louis to Edmonton.

    Having a subtely stated thought is not piling on. Larsson is two years older than Nurse and only one more than Klefbom. The three are great talents. Klef and Nurse will have to take steps each year to keep up with Larsson and of course I want them too, but it will be a bigger step for them than him, because his game is naturally more stable.

    Now that Larsson is adding offense he again takes a big step in his progression. I’m just talking about ceilings, all three have value and contribute in their way. My ideas about ceilings are from well established patterns for NHL players as published by the stats cohort and discussed a ton around here.

    I’ll be back tomorrow goodnight!

  85. Bank Shot says:

    Pronger was traded out of Hartford after 100 or so NHL games. At the time he didn’t seem to be living up to his billing. His play on the ice wasn’t great. I believe he was also partying too much and had some attitude issues.

    Pronger was traded out of St.Louis due to money.

    Anyway, the list of defensemen that took 3-4, to 6 or even 7 years to put it together is a long one.

    Nurse has a season and a half of NHL experience. Guys like Gagner, and the $6 million dollar men got way more benefit of the doubt.

    I mean, you look at Draisaitl and he still throws the occasional puck away blindly, even in the D-zone. McDavid is kind of a passenger at times. These are guys with the same general level of experience as Nurse. It’d be nice if Nurse was an absolute rock defensively with 1.5 years of NHL experience, but not a very realistic expectation.

    I’m pretty sure he will figure out the D-side well enough to be a good (and feared) top 4 defenseman for a long time.

    Will he ever get a grip on the offence? I wouldn’t bet on it, but there’s a chance. He has some instincts. Needs to work on his slapshooting. 😉

  86. Bank Shot says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    \Don’t expect him to make that mistake again. This is a big off season, and he should be loaded for bear. We cannot trade eberle and leave a massive hole on the wing with the hope that slepyshev or caggiula can fill it.

    I agree. Fortunately there are lots of options for right wing and for just money. Guys like Vrbata, Eaves, Iginla, Williams, Vanek, Versteeg.

    You can get these guys on one or two year contracts and sell them on a chance to win.

  87. who says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    I forgot to rip on Pitlick. He has not had more than 10 goals in a season since junior. A lot of that is injuries, but he has never demonstrated the capability to play more than 49 games in a season since junior, so I wouldn’t count on that. Remember when Gilbert Brule scored near 20? How about when we were touting Theo Peckman? Point is that the vast majority of NHL players play under 200 games. Expecting all or even most of these kids to pan out is dumb/naive.

    Chia like most of us didn’t think this team was good enough that it could be fixed in one year. That’s why he headed in with a massive hole wherever Leon wasn’t. He brought no guys who could have reasonably been projected as 3Line save Markie Mark, and made little moves to finish off the 2nd and 3rd pairing. He was conservative, because he didn’t want to sacrifice the future for a team that was probably going to finish just outside the playoffs. Don’t expect him to make that mistake again. This is a big off season, and he should be loaded for bear. We cannot trade eberle and leave a massive hole on the wing with the hope that slepyshev or caggiula can fill it.

    I’m sorry but trading Eberle does not leave a massive hole on the wing. Have you actually been watching him this season. Losing the Eberle of three or four years ago left a massive hole. This years Eberle, not so much. Pretty average offensive production, and nothing else brought to the table. Not exactly irreplaceable.
    I’ve said it before, but next year you could probably give JP or Slepy the same linemates, ice time and powerplay time and get similar levels of offensive production. At a quarter of the cost!

  88. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    delooper: Its funny because that’s the 4th time in the last week I’ve seen Nurse compared to Yak.
    All the physical talent to excel, but the hockey IQ might be suspect.
    Nurse can be quite maddening.
    Last night he didn’t try to do too much and was excellent.
    Other times you watch and just don’t understand what his decision making process is.
      (Quote)  (Reply)

    If this is “piling on” then we’ve come to the point were no discussion can be had anymore:

    Its funny because that’s the 4th time in the last week I’ve seen Nurse compared to Yak.
    All the physical talent to excel, but the hockey IQ might be suspect.
    Nurse can be quite maddening.
    Last night he didn’t try to do too much and was excellent.
    Other times you watch and just don’t understand what his decision making process is.

  89. blainer says:

    Last summer I was all for trading Nurse for Trouba. I still like trouba but My gut tells me Nurse is the goods.

    Nobody really has a crystal ball that works at least I don’t think anyone does. If they do can I borrow it.

    According to my crystal ball and mine is on the fritz a lot but to me Nurse is gonna knock it outta the park. No way I am trading him anytime soon.

    Lars and Nurse will become one very scary top pairing D next year. May even happen in the cup final this year!!

  90. sliderule says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If this is “piling on” then we’ve come to the point were no discussion can be had anymore:

    Its funny because that’s the 4th time in the last week I’ve seen Nurse compared to Yak.
    All the physical talent to excel, but the hockey IQ might be suspect.
    Nurse can be quite maddening.
    Last night he didn’t try to do too much and was excellent.
    Other times you watch and just don’t understand what his decision making process is.

    I have heard others say the same thing about Nurse .
    I have heard the same about Pitlick.
    I am not sure what hockey IQ realy means but it can’t be related to intelligence as Nurse was the bobby smith award winner as the ohl scholastic player of the year.

  91. Professor Q says:

    “Steve Smith”: Pronger was recognized as a mature, elite defenceman before he was traded to Edmonton.He was an Olympian and a Norris winner and a team captain and an all-star.I’m not at all clear on what you’re talking about.

    They might have meant Pronger from Hartford to St. Louis for Shanahan.

    Although age-wise this trade would have been akin to Jones for Johansson or Larsson for Hall (well, or Nurse for Hall/Seguin…).

  92. Lowetide says:

    sliderule: I have heard others say the same thing about Nurse .
    I have heard the same about Pitlick.
    I am not sure what hockey IQ realy means but it can’t be related to intelligence as Nurse was the bobby smith award winner as the ohl scholastic player of the year.

    Some really smart people who I respect have Nurse pegged as a third pairing defenseman peak value. Having seen many seasons come and go, I’m hesitant to make a call on any player before five seasons after draft. Nurse is at four, and because of his dynamic skill set is involved more often than many blue.

    He absolutely has choas, and absolutely has gifts that make him compelling. I don’t think it has anything to do with smarts per se, and look forward to seeing him at game 300. I will say he has learned the back door play 25 times quicker than Laddy Smid, as an example.

  93. frjohnk says:

    sliderule: I have heard others say the same thing about Nurse .
    I have heard the same about Pitlick.
    I am not sure what hockey IQ realy means but it can’t be related to intelligence as Nurse was the bobby smith award winner as the ohl scholastic player of the year.

    Hockey IQ and being book smart are not the same thing.

    Im not saying this pertains to Nurse but good hockey IQ involves good quick decision making and thinking on your feet among other things while book smart just means one can retain lots of info.

    I know a couple of NHLers who had great careers who were known for being smart on the ice.

    In school, they were lucky they passed.

  94. frjohnk says:

    While I believe Nurse is better than him, Nurses comparable skill set wise would be Gudbranson.

    Both drafted high.

    Both are big, strong, nasty.

    Both can skate very well.

    Both have not shown much offense.

    Gudbranson is better defensively, but not known as a shutdown type.

    I think Nurse skates with the puck better, might have better offense.

    At 22, there is definitely room for improvement, but Nurse is probably closer to his ceiling than most realise.

    I think he becomes a nasty 2nd pairing shutdown Dman with some offense. Which would be great as his salary shouldnt be too crazy. Somewhere around $3M to $4M when he has peaked.

  95. Stelio Kontos says:

    who: I’m sorry but trading Eberle does not leave a massive hole on the wing. Have you actually been watching him this season. Losing the Eberle of three or four years ago left a massive hole. This years Eberle, not so much. Pretty average offensive production, and nothing else brought to the table. Not exactly irreplaceable.
    I’ve said it before, but next year you could probably give JP or Slepy the same linemates, ice time and powerplay time and get similar levels of offensive production. At a quarter of the cost!

    He had 51 points. Next best RW was Kassian with 24. You are taking a big risk for no reason, it’s asinine. IMO eberle’s struggles are largely due to how shitty our RW is for defence, and his need to take on a bigger role there. I’m fine with trading him, especially after how poor his playoffs have been, but we do not have an in house replacement.

    Even with his shitty season, he is better offensively than many UFA RW on the list that was commented. Iginla is unlikely to break 30 points, and most of the rest will be around 40. Radulov is the only guy who has similar production to eberle in his worst year since his rookie season, and Radulov will cost the same or more.

    I’m not really advocating keeping eberle, I think you can bring in a couple of those UFA and a center, and be a better team, but we need some honesty in the conversation. Predicting massive jumps in the career of young guys wins draft lotteries, not stanleys.

    Bank Shot: I agree. Fortunately there are lots of options for right wing and for just money. Guys like Vrbata, Eaves, Iginla, Williams, Vanek, Versteeg.

    You can get these guys on one or two year contracts and sell them on a chance to win.

  96. sliderule says:

    Lowetide: Some really smart people who I respect have Nurse pegged as a third pairing defenseman peak value. Having seen many seasons come and go, I’m hesitant to make a call on any player before five seasons after draft. Nurse is at four, and because of his dynamic skill set is involved more often than many blue.

    He absolutely has choas, and absolutely has gifts that make him compelling. I don’t think it has anything to do with smarts per se, and look forward to seeing him at game 300. I will say he has learned the back door play 25 times quicker than Laddy Smid, as an example.

    Hockey people throw the phrase around “no hockey iq ” with abandon.

    It seems to say that the player is not smart enough to figure out the relatively simple systems that hockey has..Dumber than a bag of hammers is another phrase I have heard about various players.

    I have seen Connor make many poor defensive plays..Many pundits were telling us that he didn’t shoot the puck enough.This is a player who every one says has a high hockey IQ

    I just feel it’s easy to pigeon hole young players who are still learning how to think the game at high speed.

  97. Pouzar says:

    I also think Nurse isn’t as physically strong right now as some might think.
    I see the “try” against some bigger guys but he has a lot of room to get bigger/stronger.
    I don’t think he is anywhere near his ceiling for this reason and the fact his decision making will get better. He has looked too damn good with Larsson against top competition for me to ignore. Yes SSS. I get it.

  98. season not played says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Wait….

    Doesn’t that now make it Hall for Larsson, Lucic, Benning, Caggulia?

    Seriously though, Peter traded a $6MM 1LW and then signed a $6MM 2LW.

    Don’t twist yourself in hoops over the cap saving when he didn’t save anything on LW.

    He added a 1/2 RD w/ a nice contract for Hall, but when he turns around and spends that exact salary on Lucic, there is no argument for cap savings.

    Right.

    You are aware that Hall and Lucic had essentially the same numbers this year correct? Actual, tangible counting numbers. Not too mention Lucic brings something to a team Hall simply can’t.
    Lucic is three years older than Hall and with Halls injury issues, he may even decline faster than Lucic. Hall was traded for a first pair RHD and replaced with the same classification of winger, whether it be first or second LW. A fine bit of GMing.

    Now go ahead, throw some shade, hit me with your fancy numbers.

  99. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: I will say he has learned the back door play 25 times quicker than Laddy Smid, as an example.

    LT, why do you hate…..oh, never mind. 😉

  100. russ99 says:

    It’s pretty much assumed that both Connor and Leon get their extensions this summer, so I don’t see Connor as a value contract next year.

    I really don’t think Chiarelli is going to wait a year on fixing the cap crunch and Connor’s extension just because people want to keep both Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins, and cling to that unicorn nonsense, when we now know what’s required to win in the playoffs.

    That would drive the price higher, and possibly open up offer sheet possibilities, if Connor’s agent is shrewd.

    Anyone not part of the McDavid core is on borrowed time, unless they produce.

  101. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I defer to LT’s 5 year rule to see what a player develops into. My point was that after prospect watching for 10 years in the desert a pattern still does emerge that can be seen, but still isn’t definitive before 5 years and as mentioned the brain is all grown up at about 25 YO.

    I can remember thinking Gagner was not going to develop much past what we knew him as and participated in many discussions here about it. After the third year or so and no progress in the mature part of his game I felt that he just hadn’t grown and was still making the same mistakes as always. There were others as well.

    Leon is a prime example, Benning as well. You can see them getting more and more NHL aspects to their games. There have been hiccups, mistakes, but you can see the growth. That is what I hope to see with Nurse and Klef (who both have been moving forward, Klef moreso) and also JP when he arrives. A steady development of their game, learning past their natural tendencies that need to be better.

    McDavid of course also needs to grow, like right now as he is figuring out how to play when teams shadow and collapse on him on the O Zone trying to take his space and time away. He needs to learn to force plays less, shoot more and let some battles go that are low percentage and make a more mature safe play, patience I suppose. But each sortie goes in the data bank and before long the answer will spit out.

  102. Jethro Tull says:

    Scungilli Slushy: He needs to learn to force plays less, shoot more and let some battles go that are low percentage and make a more mature safe play, patience I suppose.

    I agree with you post except for this. McDavid is at his absolute best forcing plays. You want him to force the play, or more colloquially, ‘push the river’. To not want him to suggests a belief if a more holistic style believing it’ll all be ok in the end.

    Shooting more? Hard to give advice to the current Art Ross winner in an era when everybody and their dog acknowledges that it’s never been harder to score.

    We give Eberle shit for not battling on low percentage plays. Such is the fluidity of the sport, low percentage plays can turn into high danger scoring chances against pretty quickly.

  103. Stanley says:

    season not played,

    Exactly

    I think some people just have had a hard time loosing Hall. Even Woodguy (who is all about stats & numbers) looks past the facts because of his attachment to Hall. Lucic equaled Halls numbers while playing with Ebs & Nuge, two players going through scoring slumps.

    Its weird.

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    season not played: Right.

    You are aware that Hall and Lucic had essentially the same numbers this year correct? Actual, tangible counting numbers. Not too mention Lucic brings something to a team Hall simply can’t.
    Lucic is three years older than Hall and with Halls injury issues, he may even decline faster than Lucic. Hall was traded for a first pair RHD and replaced with the same classification of winger, whether it be first or second LW. A fine bit of GMing.

    Now go ahead, throw some shade, hit me with your fancy numbers.

    Stanley,

    Both of you need to take reading comprehension courses.

    The discussion is saving money on the cap and value contracts.

    Getting rid of 1 $6MM LW and replacing him with another $6MM LW is no savings on the cap.

    Also,

    You guys win.

    I’ll stop posting.

    I don’t have enough time to deal with all the strawmen, people arguing points that aren’t in the post, no value posters who think its their job to try to tear me down, and all of the other bullshit.

    Its draining and I’m in this for fun and conversation.

    You’ve made it no fun and you have no idea how to have a conversation when there isn’t agreement.

    I thought I could ignore it or change the crap to conversations, but I can’t.

    That my failing and I’ll own it.

  105. Stanley says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Woodguy v2.0: Stanley,

    Both of you need to take reading comprehension courses.

    The discussion is saving money on the cap and value contracts.

    Getting rid of 1 $6MM LW and replacing him with another $6MM LW is no savings on the cap.

    Also,

    You guys win.

    I’ll stop posting.

    I’m having a tough time dealing with the strawmen, people arguing points that aren’t in the post, no value posters who think its their job to try to tear me down, and all of the other bullshit.

    Its draining and I’m in this for fun and conversation, and you’ve made it no fun and you have no idea how to have a conversation when there isn’t agreement.

    Reading comprehension courses, really?

    Not sure why you feel the need to insult us but ok. And throwing a little tantrum and saying you’re going to take your ball and go home is not really how adults respond when someone disagrees with them.

    We disagree but i never insulted you and would appreciate the same courtesy.

  106. TheGreatMutato says:

    delooper: “Which came first, the chicken or the egg?”

    Egg all day long.

    What hatched from the egg might be what we now call the modern chicken. What laid the egg would have been some slightly less evolved iteration of bird that we might call pre-chicken, as evident by its proper proportions and ability to stand up and actually walk. I suppose, to answer the question, we need first to define “what is the chicken”.

    In which case I tend to count my eggs long before they are even laid, let alone hatched. McDavid has made me an insufferable optimist.

  107. season not played says:

    Stanley,

    WG overlooks little details like casually thowing in Hall is a one LW and Lucic is a two LW to his post when it is easier to throw a tantrum and blame our lack of reading comprehension. It would actually be really funny if he did take his ball and go home because about eight months ago his buddy G threw a tantrum and took his net and went home.

    Anyway, this is par for the course.

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    season not played:
    Stanley,

    WG overlooks little details like casually thowing in Hall is a one LW and Lucic is a two LW to his post when it is easier to throw a tantrum and blame our lack of reading comprehension. It would actually be really funny if he did take his ball and go home because about eight months ago his buddy G threw a tantrum and took his net and went home.

    Anyway, this is par for the course.

    Dumbass,

    Hall led the Oilers last year in 5v5 TOI

    He was, by definition the 1LW.

    This year Maroon is the 1st LW in TOI.

    That you are too stupid to know this or don’t care doesn’t surprise me.

    Actually information has never had a home in any of the drivel slithers out of your keyboard.

  109. Stanley says:

    season not played,

    I was surprised by his reply. I have been reading this site for years but very rarely post. Then when i do i get insulted for simply disagreeing with him. It was not the welcoming discussion i usually find here…

    I did not think my post was rude or condescending in the slightest but i certainly cannot say the same for the reply i received.

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Stanley:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Reading comprehension courses, really?

    Not sure why you feel the need to insult us but ok.And throwing a little tantrum and saying you’re going to take your ball and go home is not really how adults respond when someone disagrees with them.

    We disagree but i never insulted you and would appreciate the same courtesy.

    The conversation was never about production.

    Yes your musing about my attachment to players and ignoring information is very insulting.

    Also,

    It was never my ball.

    It’s LT’s.

  111. season not played says:

    Stanley,

    I thought your post was excellent, appreciate the support in fact.

    WG isn’t a big fan of being contradicted, unless he has a pre-existing affinity for you.

    As you can see here.

  112. Stanley says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Really? You think someone not agreeing with you is as insulting as calling someone a dumbass & then saying they are too stupid.

    If you find disagreeing opinions so insulting maybe you should stop posting…

    You’re acting like a child. We are all here for for open discussion about the game we love, stop insulting people.

  113. Bruce Wayne says:

    Stanley:
    season not played,

    I was surprised by his reply.I have been reading this site for years but very rarely post.Then when i do i get insulted for simply disagreeing with him.It was not the welcoming discussion i usually find here…

    I did not think my post was rude or condescending in the slightest but i certainly cannot say the same for the reply i received.

    Please, there is a context here. And let’s not pretend there is a discussion happening here. There can be no discussion when one side is either unwilling or unable to engage in discussion. Discussion requires shared standards of reason, a common vocabulary, a means of measuring truth and falsehood. None of these things are present.

    Season not played doesn’t advance arguments, he doesn’t understand arguments, he doesn’t know what the words mean, he doesn’t know what counts and what doesn’t, plus he is inarticulate and an asshole, who is only interested in taunting people.

    So when you come down and agree with him, you are going to get hit with some collateral damage.

  114. Yeti says:

    Please cut this stuff out. No-one’s coming out of this looking good, especially the site itself to which – I believe we can agree – we all owe a great deal.

  115. TheGreatMutato says:

    Quick – let’s make this all personal before we accidentally accomplish something constructive!

  116. The Trade Guy says:

    russ99:
    It’s pretty much assumed that both Connor and Leon get their extensions this summer, so I don’t see Connor as a value contract next year.

    I really don’t think Chiarelli is going to wait a year on fixing the cap crunch and Connor’s extension just because people want to keep both Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins, and cling to that unicorn nonsense, when we now know what’s required to win in the playoffs.

    Even if Connor signs an extension this summer he is still on his entry level next year, and thus, is a major value.

  117. Stanley says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Lol, all i said was that Halls production was the same as Lucic’s and that some people have a hard time looking at the facts because of their attachment to Hall. Then i was called a dumbass, had reading comprehension problems and am apparently too stupid to understand anything.

    If that is considered an appropriate response because i happened reply to a guy that apparently everyone hates then i don’t know what has happened to the integrity of this forum.

  118. season not played says:

    Bruce Wayne: Please, there is a context here.And let’s not pretend there is a discussion happening here.There can be no discussion when one side is either unwilling or unable to engage in discussion.Discussion requires shared standards of reason, a common vocabulary, a means of measuring truth and falsehood.None of these things are present.

    Season not played doesn’t advance arguments, he doesn’t understand arguments, he doesn’t know what the words mean, he doesn’t know what counts and what doesn’t, plus he is inarticulate and an asshole, who is only interested in taunting people.

    So when you come down and agree with him, you are going to get hit with some collateral damage.

    How much trade value does Lucic have?

  119. Bruce Wayne says:

    season not played: How much trade value does Lucic have?

    Zero. There isn’t a team in the league that would take that contract.*

    *With the tacit proviso, there isn’t a competent team that would take that contract. The Blue Jays somehow traded Vernon Wells, so in practice anything is possible.

  120. Johnny says:

    Bruce Wayne: Zero.There isn’t a team in the league that would take that contract.*

    *With the tacit proviso, there isn’t a competent team that would take that contract.The Blue Jays somehow traded Vernon Wells, so in practice anything is possible.

    What about the team that tried to sign him for more money than he actually got? Would they trade for him?

  121. John Chambers says:

    JorgeR04:
    Hey I’m going down to California for game 7 – does anyone know if there has been an adopted Oilers bar anywhere near Honda Centre to go have a few pre game beers at?

    Yeah I was just there for G5. Across the street from the Honda Centre is a bar that usually gets occupied by the visiting team. You won’t have a hard time finding allies / there were about 5,000 Oiler fans at the game.

  122. Dirk Dangler says:

    From an outsiders perspective:

    Woodguy v2.0: Wait….

    Doesn’t that now make it Hall for Larsson, Lucic, Benning, Caggulia?

    Seriously though, Peter traded a $6MM 1LW and then signed a $6MM 2LW.

    Don’t twist yourself in hoops over the cap saving when he didn’t save anything on LW.

    He added a 1/2 RD w/ a nice contract for Hall, but when he turns around and spends that exact salary on Lucic, there is no argument for cap savings.

    Woodguy responds to Kinger_Oil.redux in regards to whether or not there was a cap savings on LW. There isn’t. $6M out and $6M in. However, (and this is my opinion) the increased value between Hall’s $6M contract vs. Lucic’s $6M contract was used to acquire Larsson’s ~$4M contract. Still no savings on LW specifically, but value added elsewhere on the roster.

    season not played: Right.

    You are aware that Hall and Lucic had essentially the same numbers this year correct? Actual, tangible counting numbers. Not too mention Lucic brings something to a team Hall simply can’t.
    Lucic is three years older than Hall and with Halls injury issues, he may even decline faster than Lucic. Hall was traded for a first pair RHD and replaced with the same classification of winger, whether it be first or second LW. A fine bit of GMing.

    Now go ahead, throw some shade, hit me with your fancy numbers.

    Season Not Played engages Woodguy and attributes that Woodguy is comparing the value of Hall vs. Lucic. He uses counting numbers to suggest that Lucic’s 16/17 season is comparable to Hall’s 16/17 season.

    Woodguy hasn’t made any claims in his first post which attribute value comparisons to Lucic vs. Hall. His first comment discusses cost savings on LW. Of which there weren’t any.

    Later, Woodguy will correctly identify this as a straw man argument, due to the fact that Season Not Plated (and later Stanley) are attributing viewpoints and arguments to Woodguy which he has not currently made in his quoted post.

    This is what seems to annoy Woodguy the most, and is a recurrent theme on this blog (and elsewhere? twitter?). It typically causes Woodguy to deviate from meaningful conversation, and instead he becomes irritated (this is again my opinion).

    Lastly, the quoted post from Season Not Played take a subtle jab at Woodguy in which he says “hit me with your fancy numbers”, in an attempt to undermine the stats that Woodguy normally uses to defend his position.

    Stanley:
    season not played,

    Exactly

    I think some people just have had a hard time loosing Hall.Even Woodguy (who is all about stats & numbers) looks past the facts because of his attachment to Hall. Lucic equaled Halls numbers while playing with Ebs & Nuge, two players going through scoring slumps.

    Its weird.

    Stanley jumps into a budding argument between Woodguy and Season Not Played, who have a history of confrontational discourse, and attributes Woodguy’s value comparison between Lucic and Hall (of which he has not made), to Woodguy’s apparent recurring display of affinity towards Hall.

    Woodguy v2.0: Stanley,

    Both of you need to take reading comprehension courses.

    The discussion is saving money on the cap and value contracts.

    Getting rid of 1 $6MM LW and replacing him with another $6MM LW is no savings on the cap.

    Also,

    You guys win.

    I’ll stop posting.

    I don’t have enough time to deal with all the strawmen, people arguing points that aren’t in the post, no value posters who think its their job to try to tear me down, and all of the other bullshit.

    Its draining and I’m in this for fun and conversation.

    You’ve made it no fun and you have no idea how to have a conversation when there isn’t agreement.

    I thought I could ignore it or change the crap to conversations, but I can’t.

    That my failing and I’ll own it.

    Woodguy tries to identify that Season Not Played and Stanley are attributing things to him of which he did not say (value of Lucic compared to Hall vs cost savings at LW).

    Woodguy is irritated because he has to do this all the time. So his tone is aggressive. He recognizes that he is irritated, and that is his fault, but it is difficult not to be when he continually gets “torn down” with things he has not specifically said.

    He threatens to leave. It would be shame (again, my opinion).

    Stanley:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Reading comprehension courses, really?

    Not sure why you feel the need to insult us but ok.And throwing a little tantrum and saying you’re going to take your ball and go home is not really how adults respond when someone disagrees with them.

    We disagree but i never insulted you and would appreciate the same courtesy.

    Stanley is defensive due to Woodguy’s irritated tone.

    season not played:
    Stanley,

    WG overlooks little details like casually thowing in Hall is a one LW and Lucic is a two LW to his post when it is easier to throw a tantrum and blame our lack of reading comprehension. It would actually be really funny if he did take his ball and go home because about eight months ago his buddy G threw a tantrum and took his net and went home.

    Anyway, this is par for the course.

    Season Not Played further antagonizes Woodguy.

    *****************************************************************************************

    Things unravel further from here.

  123. season not played says:

    Dirk Dangler,

    Close, except the line

    Seriously though, Peter traded a $6MM 1LW and then signed a $6MM 2LW.

    quite clearly states WG’s opinion that Chiarelli traded a 6 million dollar first line LW and signed a 6 million dollar second line LW. Which is an obvious comment on their production and therefore contribution to the team. Let’s not ignore the fact that this is intended as a jab at the trade, and signing, and is more passive aggressive nonsense of how Hall is a superior player than Lucic. I was merely pointing out that Hall and Lucic would fall under the same classification of LW. If not for their similar production, than for the obvious physical capabilities Lucic possesses which Hall does not.

    The rest is pretty accurate. What can I say? Don’t think this is the forum to hurl personal insults.

  124. Dirk Dangler says:

    season not played,

    Thanks for the response, as you definitely didn’t owe that to my post.

    WG does bring up the slotting of 1LW vs 2LW of his own accord. He does try to further clarify that this should be used in the context of ice time, instead of production. However, that clarity cannot be inferred from his original comment.

    You have a history with WG (again, outsiders perspective), and so your assumption is that he is attempting to take “a jab at the trade”. IMO he didn’t have any reason to re-hash the Hall trade, but was simply adding the context that the value of a 1LW (where Hall used to play for the Oilers) should be quantified higher than that of a 2LW (where Lucic is currently playing for the Oilers). I think it was in an effort to further contribute to his point of the misconception that cost savings were gained at LW, specifically.

    I agree that WG thinks that Hall is a more valuable player than Lucic, especially at the same $6M contract. Based on your comments, you think that either Lucic is a more valuable player, or that he is at least approaching equal value. I think that is a fair stance to have, and you are definitely entitled to have any stance you wish.

    However, you know that WG doesn’t share that stance, and probably won’t moving forward. So why antagonize the issue? He’s as entitled to his opinion as you are yours. You’ve discussed the trade previously, and i doubt that either of you are going to change your opinions. So agree to disagree.

    I have no horse in this race, but it is a shame that people are so emotionally invested in trying to convince others of their opinion that it causes posters to threaten to leave. And that isn’t intended to be be a slight against only you.

    Also, I agree that the personal insults are unnecessary.

  125. TheGreatMutato says:

    Dirk Dangler,

    That was some Friedman-esque evaluation. Well done. And good on WG to disengage when he did. Though it makes me kind of miss 1.0.

  126. Dennis King says:

    If Nurse doesn’t settle down a little more in his own end, then he’s going to have to bring more offense. If we consider that the PP dmen are already here in Klefbom, Sekera and probably Benning if the Oilers decide to focus more on RHD, then Nurse will be hard-pressed to add that offense.

    Whatever he becomes, you hope they don’t decide to “pay” him if they determine he’ll never be in a spot to provide offense and/or if all he can be is a defensive-only guy, then you trade him before everyone else in the league figures this out and his value is designated thusly

  127. treevojo says:

    Dennis King:
    If Nurse doesn’t settle down a little more in his own end, then he’s going to have to bring more offense. If we consider that the PP dmen are already here in Klefbom, Sekera and probably Benning if the Oilers decide to focus more on RHD, then Nurse will be hard-pressed to add that offense.

    Whatever he becomes, you hope they don’t decide to “pay” him if they determine he’ll never be in a spot to provide offense and/or if all he can be is a defensive-only guy, then you trade him before everyone else in the league figures this out and his value is designated thusly

    What do you consider “paying” him?

  128. season not played says:

    Dirk Dangler,

    It’s cool man.

    You must have missed the part last summer when a couple of the boys on here decided anyone in favor of the trade was an idiot. And let them know it.

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