HERE COMES SUMMER!

The Edmonton Oilers are full steam ahead for the Stanley Cup Finals, but the off day gives us a chance to look ahead at the summer. Peter Chiarelli was very active in the summer of 2015 and 2016, but I think we’ll see fewer moves in the coming months. The Oilers are still in need of balance and depth, we will see if the club can fill in the remaining holes over the next five months. They do have a position of depth—left defense—and they do have some free-agent options, in-house and on the open market.

ONE YEAR AGO

Last year at this time, I made a list of players who might have been on the market. I wanted to repeat the list, because so many of the men from last year’s list remain. Not many men walked back their situation in the 12 months that have come and gone.

  1. Benoit Pouliot
  2. Mark Fayne
  3. Nail Yakupov
  4. No. 4 overall selection (used on Jesse Puljujarvi, but was in play)
  5. Young LHD (Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart, Brandon Davidson)
  6. Cap space
  7. 2017 1st round selection
  8. Jordan Eberle
  9. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  10. Leon Draisaitl
  11. Taylor Hall
  12. Source

PETER CHIARELLI’S SUMMER 2017 LIST

  1. Get Connor Mcdavid signed to a long-term contract. ($10-13 million times 8?)
  2. Get Leon Draisaitl signed to a long-term contract. ($7-9 million times 8?)
  3. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future. (Griffin Reinhart, Jujhar Khaira, Mark Letestu)
  4. Find a way to trade Benoit Pouliot off the roster. (trade with LV or buyout)
  5. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen. (Hamonic, Franson, Kris Russell)
  6. Find a bottom 6F who can help the offense. (Cizikas, Sutter)
  7. Find a way to cover off buried contracts. (Fayne)
  8. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline.

In the last two summers, we have been talking about substantial talent in and out. More and more, I think this summer is going to be about money.

POSSIBLE 2017-18 OPENING NIGHT ROSTER

  • This might resemble the roster we see in fall. Edmonton will very likely have just one expensive winger (Milan Lucic) opening night—unless Leon Draisaitl plays RW on that evening.
  • Men like Drake Caggiula, Jujhar Khaira, Anton Slepyshev and Tyler Pitlick are going to get a real chance to play wing this fall.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi makes the roster without a throw.
  • Jordan Eberle and Benoit Pouliot are the most likely exits, Mark Fayne is probably on a list of trade options or buyout options.
  • Rookies next season may be limited to Jujhar Khaira.

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113 Responses to "HERE COMES SUMMER!"

  1. pocession charge says:

    I’d like to see veteran replacements for Pou and Ebs. JP penciled in at 1RW is not a very good game plan, either. I want to see a RH veteran on a value contract in that spot.

  2. PUCKSTOPSHERE says:

    Just spit balling here but what if you could trade ebs for a freshly signed kovlachuck , if they could get him on a radulov type deal ? Throw him on the off wing . Use the old Line that ebs needs a fresh start and look how well the hall trade worked out on your team and that he has a history putting up numbers when there together , heck hall might even put in a good word with management

  3. Pablotypus says:

    I hate to rag on you now that you’ve finally seen the light on Fayne (seriously, how has it taken this long?) but Griff will be in tough to take away Gryba’s job. The big man may lack footspeed but he brings a very particular set of skills and that set of skills is useful in a conference full of junkyard dogs. Nurse is going to be a beast but another year with Gryba to nurture/shelter him (yeah yeah, Larsson is the real mentor) will do this group a real favor. That being said, I hope Griff finds something more inside and steps up next season, but I have serious doubts. Gyba just does what he gets paid to do.

  4. LMHF#1 says:

    I keep asking whether there is any chance Ristolainen shakes loose in Buffalo – not because it will happen but because he’s basically the perfect final piece on this team in terms of defence. Would be willing to trade a small ransom for him.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Pablotypus:
    I hate to rag on you now that you’ve finally seen the light on Fayne (seriously, how has it taken this long?)

    This is what I believe PC may do. I would have Fayne on the roster.

  6. OmJo says:

    PUCKSTOPSHERE,

    Has Kovalchuk or his agent said whether he will play in New Jersey or not? If I was the Devils, I’d keep him if he’s willing to stay. Having two of the best LWs in the league – on the lowest scoring team in the league – is something. Cammalleri isn’t a 2LW anymore. Or you could trade him for a RW and hope you can sign Marleau or Vanek July 1.

    Kovalchuk had 78pts in 60 games in the KHL this season. I don’t know the conversion rate between NHL and KHL, but I think that would put him up there with other LWs. Brad Marchand lead LWs with 85pts in 80gp.

  7. OmJo says:

    Could you imagine Erik Karlsson feeding Connor McDavid these passes?

  8. Zelepukin says:

    pocession charge:
    I’d like to see veteran replacements for Pou and Ebs.JP penciled in at 1RW is not a very good game plan, either.I want to see a RH veteran on a value contract in that spot.

    Well we’ve got a rookie right now on the first line, for game 7, in the second round, versus Anaheim.

    Anything is possible.

  9. OmJo says:

    Sens 1 Rags 0

  10. Jethro Tull says:

    OmJo:
    Could you imagine Erik Karlsson feeding Connor McDavid these passes?

    Nobody feeds McDavid. He feasts where he wills.

  11. Lowetide says:

    pocession charge:
    I’d like to see veteran replacements for Pou and Ebs.JP penciled in at 1RW is not a very good game plan, either.I want to see a RH veteran on a value contract in that spot.

    I think a lot of those inexpensive wingers who are available mid-summer will have been signed earlier because of expansion. The Oilers will have no money to sign a $3-4M winger this summer imo.

  12. OmJo says:

    Turris almost got Kassian’d

  13. OmJo says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Touche. In that case, could you imagine McDavid feasting off those Karlsson stretch passes?

  14. Lowetide says:

    John Shannon‏Verified account @JSportsnet 2h2 hours ago
    More
    Also told that Bishop had a no trade list. Calgary was on that list.

  15. OmJo says:

    I don’t know what SCF I want to see more.

    There’s Oilers vs Senators for obvious reasons – the Cup should be back where it belongs.

    Then there’s Oilers vs Penguins – Crosby vs McDavid, round 1.

    Or Oilers vs Rangers – Talbot vs the King who he played behind his entire career.

    What story is there with Nashville in the Cup final? The cliché underdog story about a team only 5000 people actually care about. It’s not like they just crept into the playoffs, either. Who would want to watch a Capitals vs Predators SCF?

  16. VOR says:

    I can’t help wondering if we have all suddenly given up on math and decided instead that seen them good is now the gold standard:

    Some Eberle facts:

    -this season Eberle had the most shots he has ever had (208) while playing fewer minutes than in the past particularly on the power play.
    -he was second on the team in shots on net.
    -he was third on the team in shots attempted.
    -he was third amongst regulars in CF% and also in FF%.
    -his shooting % plunged to 9.6% from 14.5% in the previous season.
    -had he shot as well this year as last he would have had 29 goals. Even if he had shot his career average of 13.4 he would have had 28 goals.
    -why his shooting cratered is a good question but it is worth noting that it isn’t part of a trend because last year was the second best shooting year of his career.
    -this season the on ice save percentage (92.7 -career high) when Eberle was on the ice was spectacular so even with a terrible on ice shooting% (7.7 -career low) he had a PDO of 100.4
    -Eberle’s heat maps over the years are fascinating. They are remarkably consistent up until 2015-2016. In that season he shoots a reasonable amount but it is a pale ghost of former heat maps, the shots don’t come from a few red hot spots, they are unfocused and “fuzzy”. There is almost nothing from the right side of the crease which is one of his two go to areas in all other years, the other is the left hand side of the crease. He still went there, a lot, but didn’t get as good an outcome and it is probably partly because his heat map is about a foot broader and far more unfocused. This season slightly more of his shots came from the high slot or the hash marks or behind the net than in past years. His go to area on the right hand side was still largely missing in action and the left hand side of the crease remains a bit “fuzzy”. It all looks washed out versus the red hot heat maps of his early years.
    -the trend to widening his offence has continued in the playoffs but it isn’t as big a difference as people seem to think and it doesn’t indicate a perimeter shooter. The hash marks, high slot and behind the net are not places players go to hide. His degree of difficulty fell by about 2% season over season and has fallen roughly another 1% in the playoffs. That is overall about 3% less of his shot attempts are from the HDSC Box. He is still going into the land of tall trees routinely but just not with quite the same laser focus.
    -there is also some evidence that his teammates aren’t getting him the puck in the same parts of the ice as in previous years. He keeps going to the crease but doesn’t get the puck in the slot or the crease. Though he is certainly opening up ice for RNH.
    -what is really striking is that he is shooting the puck on net roughly 21% less in the playoffs than during the regular season
    -this isn’t because he hasn’t had the puck, his possession numbers indicate that he is maintaining a now well established pattern as a dominant possession player
    -he actually leads the Oilers in some possession stats for the playoffs and is close to the lead in others
    -his drop off in shots per minute (a measure of volume shooting) from 0.15 shots per minute on net during the regular season to 0.12 during the playoffs is partly due to taking fewer shot attempts from 0.28 shot attempts per minute to 0.24 shot attempts per minute but is also due to missing more shots and being blocked more often in the playoffs than he was in the regular season
    -his successful shot ratio (shots/shot attempts) fell from 55% to 49%
    -he is definitely giving up slightly more high danger scoring chances than he is generating but it amounts to three more HDSC conceeded than generated in 12 games and against above average opponents. Against San Jose he had the Pavelski line most commonly and against Anaheim it is the Getzlaff line
    -what has gone wrong is his on ice sv% has once again cratered (he has had some bad goaltending luck when he has been on the ice) and his on ice sh% has fallen off the face of the earth, far more than the facts I have just recounted would suggest it should have
    -the most likely explanation (given there has been no mention of sickness or injury and he has posted really good possession numbers) is he is playing in exceedingly bad luck
    -Oilers fans maybe need to look at the Oilers’ overall possession and shot metrics. The Oilers generate the most or nearly the most shots, scoring chances etc. of any team in the playoffs but they are dead last or close to it for every against metric. And in fact they are getting out played even once you allow for score effects
    -can the team really afford to get rid of one of the four guys it has who tilts the ice the other way?
    -I would want to know if there isn’t a coaching change that explains the increased shooting volume, the widening of shot orientation focus, and the trips through the HDSC Box where he never sees the puck before I got rid of this player and I would certainly wait for his shooting % to normalize.

  17. Seismic Source says:

    I like that lineup LT. The bets on the wings are a gamble but hardly a hailmairy. No significant FA signing in the summer but massive buyers at the deadline for once.

    Not much room for injurys up front but what team does?

  18. OmJo says:

    VOR,

    can the team really afford to get rid of one of the four guys it has who tilts the ice the other way?

    Not if we don’t get a RW to replace him. I think we are maybe taking our strength down the middle for granted a little bit here and expecting them to elevate our wingers too much. If we are serious about being a contender we need proven NHL players in the lineup and despite a poor season Eberle is still (IMO) a proven top 6 RW.

  19. Professor Q says:

    By the way, it’s Nurse Week.

    Good Omens for tomorrow.

  20. Seismic Source says:

    It’s the Penguin model before they traded Staal, but this time don’t trade Staal.

  21. OmJo says:

    Sam Gagner played RW this season in CBJ. 50pts, was making $650K. Could that be an option for a cheap 3RW? Could have him and Letestu split on the powerplay. How has his defensive play come along?

  22. Stud Muffin says:

    If Chia pays more then 10.5 for Connor and more than 7.5 for Leon I’d consider that a failure. There going into there second contracts.

  23. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    I can’t help wondering if we have all suddenly given up on math and decided instead that seen them good is now the gold standard:

    We’re just chatting about what the Oilers may do. I think all of us know Eberle brings value, I wrote a post on it this morning.

  24. Westchester Oil says:

    Seismic Source:
    I like that lineup LT. The bets on the wings are a gamble but hardly a hailmairy. No significant FA signing in the summer but massive buyers at the deadline for once.

    Not much room for injurys up front but what team does?

    I have to respectfully disagree with one addition to this lineup. We can’t afford a 4th line centre like Czikas for $3.35 million x 4 more years (unless the Islanders take both Poo and Fayne off of our hands or take back salary).

  25. Professor Q says:

    Seismic Source:
    It’s the Penguin model before they traded Staal, but this time don’t trade Staal.

    Just trade Neal?

  26. OmJo says:

    Professor Q,

    We already did.

  27. Professor Q says:

    OmJo:
    Professor Q,

    We already did.

    Eberle is still here.

  28. who says:

    VOR:
    I can’t help wondering if we have all suddenly given up on math and decided instead that seen them good is now the gold standard:

    Some Eberle facts:

    -this season Eberle had the most shots he has ever had (208) while playing fewer minutes than in the past particularly on the power play.
    -he was second on the team in shots on net.
    -he was third on the team in shots attempted.
    -he was third amongst regulars in CF% and also in FF%.
    -his shooting % plunged to 9.6% from 14.5% in the previous season.
    -had he shot as well this year as last he would have had 29 goals. Even if he had shot his career average of 13.4 he would have had 28 goals.
    -why his shooting cratered is a good question but it is worth noting that it isn’t part of a trend because last year was the second best shooting year of his career.
    -this season the on ice save percentage (92.7 -career high) when Eberle was on the ice was spectacular so even with a terrible on ice shooting% (7.7 -career low) he had a PDO of 100.4
    -Eberle’s heat maps over the years are fascinating. They are remarkably consistent up until 2015-2016. In that season he shoots a reasonable amount but it is a pale ghost of former heat maps, the shots don’t come from a few red hot spots, they are unfocused and “fuzzy”. There is almost nothing from the right side of the crease which is one of his two go to areas in all other years, the other is the left hand side of the crease. He still went there, a lot, but didn’t get as good an outcome and it is probably partly because his heat map is about a foot broader and far more unfocused. This season slightly more of his shots came from the high slot or the hash marks or behind the net than in past years. His go to area on the right hand side was still largely missing in action and the left hand side of the crease remains a bit “fuzzy”. It all looks washed out versus the red hot heat maps of his early years.
    -the trend to widening his offence has continued in the playoffs but it isn’t as big a difference as people seem to think and it doesn’t indicate a perimeter shooter. The hash marks, high slot and behind the net are not places players go to hide. His degree of difficulty fell by about 2% season over season and has fallen roughly another 1% in the playoffs. That is overall about 3% less of his shot attempts are from the HDSC Box. He is still going into the land of tall trees routinely but just not with quite the same laser focus.
    -there is also some evidence that his teammates aren’t getting him the puck in the same parts of the ice as in previous years. He keeps going to the crease but doesn’t get the puck in the slot or the crease. Though he is certainly opening up ice for RNH.
    -what is really striking is that he is shooting the puck on net roughly 21% less in the playoffs than during the regular season
    -this isn’t because he hasn’t had the puck, his possession numbers indicate that he is maintaining a now well established pattern as a dominant possession player
    -he actually leads the Oilers in some possession stats for the playoffs and is close to the lead in others
    -his drop off in shots per minute (a measure of volume shooting) from 0.15 shots per minute on net during the regular season to 0.12 during the playoffs is partly due to taking fewer shot attempts from 0.28 shot attempts per minute to 0.24 shot attempts per minute but is also due to missing more shots and being blocked more often in the playoffs than he was in the regular season
    -his successful shot ratio (shots/shot attempts) fell from 55% to 49%
    -he is definitely giving up slightly more high danger scoring chances than he is generating but it amounts to three more HDSC conceeded than generated in 12 games and against above average opponents. Against San Jose he had the Pavelski line most commonly and against Anaheim it is the Getzlaff line
    -what has gone wrong is his on ice sv% has once again cratered (he has had some bad goaltending luck when he has been on the ice) and his on ice sh% has fallen off the face of the earth, far more than the facts I have just recounted would suggest it should have
    -the most likely explanation (given there has been no mention of sickness or injury and he has posted really good possession numbers) is he is playing in exceedingly bad luck
    -Oilers fans maybe need to look at the Oilers’ overall possession and shot metrics. The Oilers generate the most or nearly the most shots, scoring chances etc. of any team in the playoffs but they are dead last or close to it for every against metric. And in fact they are getting out played even once you allow for score effects
    -can the team really afford to get rid of one of the four guys it has who tilts the ice the other way?
    -I would want to know if there isn’t a coaching change that explains the increased shooting volume, the widening of shot orientation focus, and the trips through the HDSC Box where he never sees the puck before I got rid of this player and I would certainly wait for his shooting % to normalize.

    How do you come up with Eberle tilting the ice in the oilers favor

  29. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    John Shannon‏Verified account @JSportsnet2h2 hours ago
    MoreAlso told that Bishop had a no trade list.Calgary was on that list.

    This makes me happy, for some reason.

  30. Lowetide says:

    Westchester Oil: I have to respectfully disagree with one addition to this lineup. We can’t afford a 4th line centre like Czikas for $3.35 million x 4 more years (unless the Islanders take both Poo and Fayne off of our hands or take back salary).

    I have Cizikas out for Eberle. You may want to run Hamonic for Eberle, and find a free agent center, but I was interested in showing what might be happening as opposed to specific names.

  31. OmJo says:

    Professor Q: Eberle is still here.

    Ahh, I think Neal is closer to Hall than Eberle. Eberle would be…. idk, Kunitz?

  32. who says:

    VOR:
    I can’t help wondering if we have all suddenly given up on math and decided instead that seen them good is now the gold standard:

    Some Eberle facts:

    -this season Eberle had the most shots he has ever had (208) while playing fewer minutes than in the past particularly on the power play.
    -he was second on the team in shots on net.
    -he was third on the team in shots attempted.
    -he was third amongst regulars in CF% and also in FF%.
    -his shooting % plunged to 9.6% from 14.5% in the previous season.
    -had he shot as well this year as last he would have had 29 goals. Even if he had shot his career average of 13.4 he would have had 28 goals.
    -why his shooting cratered is a good question but it is worth noting that it isn’t part of a trend because last year was the second best shooting year of his career.
    -this season the on ice save percentage (92.7 -career high) when Eberle was on the ice was spectacular so even with a terrible on ice shooting% (7.7 -career low) he had a PDO of 100.4
    -Eberle’s heat maps over the years are fascinating. They are remarkably consistent up until 2015-2016. In that season he shoots a reasonable amount but it is a pale ghost of former heat maps, the shots don’t come from a few red hot spots, they are unfocused and “fuzzy”. There is almost nothing from the right side of the crease which is one of his two go to areas in all other years, the other is the left hand side of the crease. He still went there, a lot, but didn’t get as good an outcome and it is probably partly because his heat map is about a foot broader and far more unfocused. This season slightly more of his shots came from the high slot or the hash marks or behind the net than in past years. His go to area on the right hand side was still largely missing in action and the left hand side of the crease remains a bit “fuzzy”. It all looks washed out versus the red hot heat maps of his early years.
    -the trend to widening his offence has continued in the playoffs but it isn’t as big a difference as people seem to think and it doesn’t indicate a perimeter shooter. The hash marks, high slot and behind the net are not places players go to hide. His degree of difficulty fell by about 2% season over season and has fallen roughly another 1% in the playoffs. That is overall about 3% less of his shot attempts are from the HDSC Box. He is still going into the land of tall trees routinely but just not with quite the same laser focus.
    -there is also some evidence that his teammates aren’t getting him the puck in the same parts of the ice as in previous years. He keeps going to the crease but doesn’t get the puck in the slot or the crease. Though he is certainly opening up ice for RNH.
    -what is really striking is that he is shooting the puck on net roughly 21% less in the playoffs than during the regular season
    -this isn’t because he hasn’t had the puck, his possession numbers indicate that he is maintaining a now well established pattern as a dominant possession player
    -he actually leads the Oilers in some possession stats for the playoffs and is close to the lead in others
    -his drop off in shots per minute (a measure of volume shooting) from 0.15 shots per minute on net during the regular season to 0.12 during the playoffs is partly due to taking fewer shot attempts from 0.28 shot attempts per minute to 0.24 shot attempts per minute but is also due to missing more shots and being blocked more often in the playoffs than he was in the regular season
    -his successful shot ratio (shots/shot attempts) fell from 55% to 49%
    -he is definitely giving up slightly more high danger scoring chances than he is generating but it amounts to three more HDSC conceeded than generated in 12 games and against above average opponents. Against San Jose he had the Pavelski line most commonly and against Anaheim it is the Getzlaff line
    -what has gone wrong is his on ice sv% has once again cratered (he has had some bad goaltending luck when he has been on the ice) and his on ice sh% has fallen off the face of the earth, far more than the facts I have just recounted would suggest it should have
    -the most likely explanation (given there has been no mention of sickness or injury and he has posted really good possession numbers) is he is playing in exceedingly bad luck
    -Oilers fans maybe need to look at the Oilers’ overall possession and shot metrics. The Oilers generate the most or nearly the most shots, scoring chances etc. of any team in the playoffs but they are dead last or close to it for every against metric. And in fact they are getting out played even once you allow for score effects
    -can the team really afford to get rid of one of the four guys it has who tilts the ice the other way?
    -I would want to know if there isn’t a coaching change that explains the increased shooting volume, the widening of shot orientation focus, and the trips through the HDSC Box where he never sees the puck before I got rid of this player and I would certainly wait for his shooting % to normalize.

    I started watching almost every oiler game after they drafted Mcdavid. Before that I saw a lot of their games on sports net west. Two or three years ago I saw Eberle as a dangerous offensive player. In fact I liked him better than Hall when they came in the league. Seemed like he was a threat to score almost every shift.
    This year he has been almost invisible. You can talk about shooting percentages all you want but how many games has he really had good scoring chances in. Not many to my eye. He has become a perimeter shooter and he doesn’t have the shot for it. Unless he figures out some way to consistently get to the high danger areas I think this is the new norm for him.

  33. Professor Q says:

    OmJo: Ahh, I think Neal is closer to Hall than Eberle. Eberle would be…. idk, Kunitz?

    His points are closer to Eberle’s, closer to Eberle’s draft spot, probably closer to trade value, and wasn’t traded for a top RHD.

    Although he was acquired for Goligoski, mind you.

  34. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! I’m not sure what to think of 8 year contracts to 20 year olds but there are fascinating considerations:

    1) do McD and Drai talk about this stuff between them
    2) what do their parents think and want?
    3) How much is Chia or Katz or even Gretz for instance involved in this stuff? I don’t know this but I know that Kraft has a deal with Brady where Brady accepts less “pay”.
    4) Really is 8 years gaoing to affect the approach to the game?
    5) by going so long-term are you trying to gain a cap space advantage in later years, hoping that they tilt towards “value” contracts in later years?
    6) what role does the NHLPA have in influencing The players to go for max salary vs long-term?

    – It’s going to be a fascinating off-season. I tend to think there will be another big-acquisition in the vein of Sek Lucic Larson Talbot on top of the salary cap stuff you mention.

    – and just a comment about this blog: LT does a wonderful job and there is always ups and downs. It seems like there was a lot of heat today. For me there really isn’t a poster in here that I don’t enjoy. It’s a strong community and I enjoy all aspects of it

  35. healthyscratch says:

    OmJo:
    I don’t know what SCF I want to see more.

    There’s Oilers vs Senators for obvious reasons – the Cup should be back where it belongs.

    Then there’s Oilers vs Penguins – Crosby vs McDavid, round 1.

    Or Oilers vs Rangers – Talbot vs the King who he played behind his entire career.

    What story is there with Nashville in the Cup final? The cliché underdog story about a team only 5000 people actually care about. It’s not like they just crept into the playoffs, either. Who would want to watch a Capitals vs Predators SCF?

    I’m going to dispute your comments about Nashville. Mabye 10 years ago, but this city has turned into an amazing hockey market. I’d go so far as to say the Preds have surpassed the local NFL team in popularity the last few years.

  36. Professor Q says:

    healthyscratch: I’m going to dispute your comments about Nashville. Mabye 10 years ago,but this city has turned into an amazing hockey market. I’d go so far as to say the Preds have surpassed the local NFL team in popularity the last few years.

    They also forgot about Edmonton-Washington.

  37. VOR says:

    who,

    CF% 52.8
    FF% 54.2

    That is regular season. Where he was third among regular players in both categories.

    SAT% in playoffs 52.60 (team rank 1st)
    SAT in playoffs 15 (team rank 1st)

    In other words he has been on the ice for 15 more scoring attempts for than against. 1st on the team. Tilting the ice.

  38. frjohnk says:

    LMHF#1:
    I keep asking whether there is any chance Ristolainen shakes loose in Buffalo – not because it will happen but because he’s basically the perfect final piece on this team in terms of defence. Would be willing to trade a small ransom for him.

    I really like him.
    Just a few months older than Nurse but Buffalo put him on the top pairing basically when he came to the NHL. Has struggled there for two reasons,
    1 he shouldnt have been playing against the elites so much,
    2 other than a few pieces, the Sabres are still not very good.

    Here he would fit in very nicely in the top 4 and would be PP1 Dman. He is basically a right handed version of Klefbom but more physical and I would say better passer, not as good defensively.

    Might be paid a bit much as majority of his points were on the PP ( 26) 19 (EV)

    If they trade Ristolainen, theyd need a Dman coming back.

    Theyd probably want Klefbom.

    I wouldnt do that.

    Dont think Nurse and this years 1st gets it done.

    But a top 4 of
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera- Ristolainen

    would be better than the majority of teams

  39. OF17 says:

    I agree that this summer will mostly be about the money. The players on the chopping block – Pouliot, Fayne, maybe Eberle, maybe Nuge – are there only because of their salaries. At the same time, the two biggest pieces of the franchise will be getting new contracts, which will determine the team’s salary structure for most of the next decade. In a very real way, the Oilers’ ability to compete in the medium to long term depends upon getting the money right this summer.

    With that in place, Chiarelli’s job becomes tweaking the roster while re-establishing slot values for roles. I’d be surprised if less than $3M is cut from the 1RW and 3C slots this summer (assuming Draisaitl at 2C). The players may not be any better than Nuge or Eberle. In fact, I’d bet money we’d rather have Nuge + Eberle than their replacements if building a team from scratch. But if Chiarelli can bring in substantial replacements while righting the team’s salary structure, perhaps with an added Williams/Eaves short-term UFA signing, I think he will have done his job.

    The most important items this summer are the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts though. Will we be going to war with Kane and Toews at $12.6M or Kane and Toews at $21M? Those contracts will have implications for the next 8-9 years. It’s extremely unlikely that any other moves this summer will have such a wide-reaching effect.

  40. MrEd says:

    $9.7 for McDavid. $7 for Leon. x8.
    Puts both in the top 30 without killing the team.

  41. OmJo says:

    Professor Q,

    Brain fart on my part, confused James Neal for Jamie Benn for some reason.

  42. OmJo says:

    healthyscratch,

    Since I haven’t been there, I’ll take your word for it.

  43. OmJo says:

    Professor Q,

    Left them out because I couldn’t think of a story-line for the series unlike the other three.

  44. Seismic Source says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    And the CBA. We could see McDavid not want to sign anything past the CBA.

  45. Professor Q says:

    OmJo:
    Professor Q,

    Left them out because I couldn’t think of a story-line for the series unlike the other three.

    Vezina Trophy Finalist vs. The Guy Who Really Deserves It

    (Two Best Goalies in NHL?)

  46. Gordies Elbow says:

    How about Eberle plus a pick or prospect for Calle Jarnkrok and the requirement that LVGK takes Pouliot?

    Edmonton saves $8m in cap for the next two seasons, and gets a right shooting centre for three seasons beyond that at $2m.

    It’s a downgrade on production, but fills a need (RHC,) and buys a value contract, clears cap, and protects players moving forward. LVGK gets a couple of (somewhat) overpaid players, and a pick or prospect moving forward.

    Thoughts?

  47. VOR says:

    who,

    Over the course of his career Jordan Eberle has taken his average shot from 23.34 feet according to Corsica Hockey. This year he took his average shot from a distance of 23.76. In the playoffs that has been 23.4 feet. Hard to see any change in danger of his scoring chances in that data. The Oilers as a team averaged just over 31 feet. Which was first (closest average shot) in the NHL.

    In addition, over the course of his career Jordan Eberle has shot the puck from either the crease or the low slot in front of the net approximately 50% of the time. This year it was down to 49% and is at 48.5% in the playoffs. The difference being, as I said originally, that he has gone a little soft on the outer edge of the crease. His shots from the corner of the crease cover a larger total area than they used to accounting for the slight difference.

    He is in no way a perimeter shooter.

  48. VOR says:

    who,

    Just for context, Ryan Getzlaf shot from 25.89 feet on average this year and is shooting from 33.3 feet in the playoffs.

    I will say it again, Jordan Eberle is not a perimeter shooter.

  49. OmJo says:

    Congrats to the Sens for making it to the ECF. Anderson stepped up when really needed.

  50. Bling says:

    VOR,

    This all day.

    Ederle was a better EV scorer than Radulov this year, and just a hair off what Pavelski put up.

    He isn’t in bad company, and that is with a career-worst shooting percentage and playing with two players (RNH and Lucic) who put up totally substandard even strength offence.

    Unlike Lucic, he did not receive the benefit of 1st unit PP time to save his boxcars.

    He also had a very good penalties drawn to penalties taken ratio this season. Haven’t heard anyone incorporate that into his valuation.

    To me, this doesn’t at all sound like the story of a good player whose skills are eroding.

  51. N64 says:

    VOR:
    who,

    Just for context, Ryan Getzlaf shot from 25.89 feet on average this year and is shooting from 33.3 feet in the playoffs.

    I will say it again, Jordan Eberle is not a perimeter shooter.

    ~ It’s easy to see that you are missing what is plainly visible. Eberle hasn’t scored. The Oilers are winning because Chiarelli is too smart to be confused by your bias for numbers. ~

    Am I doing it right? Never get between a goat and his hunters. 😉

    Sail on VOR. Right here as often as you wish. No shortage of wind to tack against.

  52. Scungilli Slushy says:

    When evaluating players the first question is what do you value?

    NHL teams value players that are good on the defensive side of the puck. I do as well. For me one way offensive players have to be elite or I think they give up more than they give.

    With Gagner, Eberle and Hall, the main issue with them was not really offense, all players are streaky. It has been defensive and system play. None have been able to establish a level two ways to gain respect around the league as I read around, and how many upper level team selections based on their talent and production.

    Nuge has the opposite problem. He has a well developed for age larger game but is struggling for offense. However it has been shown here his production /60 is in line with players with his usage – offense sacrificed for handling top players, which is a great benefit to the team’s overall success.

    To sum up, non elite offense without responsible play isn’t valued much in the NHL. We see those players change teams more frequently than other players, even those with a very high skill level.

  53. N64 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    When evaluating players the first question is what do you value?

    NHL teams value players that are good on the defensive side of the puck. I do as well. For me one way offensive players have to be elite or I think they give up more than they give.

    With Gagner, Eberle and Hall, the main issue with them was not really offense, all players are streaky. It has been defensive and system play. None have been able to establish a level two ways to gain respect around the league as I read around, and how many upper level team selections based on their talent and production.

    Nuge has the opposite problem. He has a well developed for age larger game but is struggling for offense. However it has been shown here his production /60 is in line with players with his usage – offense sacrificed for handling top players, which is a great benefit to the team’s overall success.

    To sum up, non elite offense without responsible play isn’t valued much in the NHL. We see those players change teams more frequently than other players, even those with a very high skill level.

    Or they could be targets for goat hunters that zero in on isolated numbers rather than the net results relative to role.

  54. JDI Хоккей says:

    N64: Or they could be targets for goat hunters that zero in on isolated numbers rather than the net results relative to role.

    Maybe we should just stare at the goats? That would probably be more beneficial.

  55. pocession charge says:

    Zelepukin: Well we’ve got a rookie right now on the first line, for game 7, in the second round, versus Anaheim.

    Anything is possible.

    True but I wouldn’t want to go into next season counting on a rookie or sophomore in too many positions. I prefer some veteran depth for a long, grueling season.

  56. Professor Q says:

    JDI Хоккей: Maybe we should just stare at the goats? That would probably be more beneficial.

    Is this not an innuendo for taking LSD?

  57. OmJo says:

    JDI Хоккей: Maybe we should just stare at the goats? That would probably be more beneficial.

    Didn’t they make a movie about that?

  58. Professor Q says:

    So listening to the Lowdown now.

    Didn’t realise that Kovalchuk specified Panthers or NY.

    Imagine him with Jagr and Huberdeau, or Tavares, et al.?

  59. Seismic Source says:

    If both sides can agree that money needs to come off the books and soon, then I think a lot of people from either side arrive at the same destination taking either path.

    Eberle is good. We need to pay McDavid and Drai. RNH is a centre. Trade Eberle.

    Eberle is bad. We need to pay McDavid and Drai. RNH is a centre. Trade Eberle.

    I feel people are arguing over a left turn or a right turn that both end up at the same place.

  60. leadfarmer says:

    If someone sees Woodguy would you please tell him he continues to underestimate these Sens for me. Sigh

  61. Professor Q says:

    leadfarmer:
    If someone sees Woodguy would you please tell him he continues to underestimate these Sens for me. Sigh

    Some people just aren’t Sensible at all.

  62. Bling says:

    Seismic Source:
    If both sides can agree that money needs to come off the books and soon, then I think a lot of people from either side arrive at the same destination taking either path.

    Eberle is good. We need to pay McDavid and Drai. RNH is a centre.Trade Eberle.

    Eberle is bad. We need to pay McDavid and Drai. RNH is a centre. Trade Eberle.

    I feel people are arguing over a left turn or a right turn that both end up at the same place.

    Subtracting Pouliot and Russell would lead to a greater cap savings than Eberle alone.

    Meanwhile, replacing JP with Eberle does not lead to great savings (~2.5 million in cap space).

  63. N64 says:

    JDI Хоккей: Maybe we should just stare at the goats? That would probably be more beneficial.

    That explains the tenuous grip on reality. 😉

  64. JDI Хоккей says:

    Professor Q: Is this not an innuendo for taking LSD?

    Correct – it is not.

    Remote viewing, something both the US and USSR invested a lot of time and money into, as a defense project.

    It’s also a decent movie.

  65. Johnny Stomper says:

    VOR:
    who,

    Just for context, Ryan Getzlaf shot from 25.89 feet on average this year and is shooting from 33.3 feet in the playoffs.

    I will say it again, Jordan Eberle is not a perimeter shooter.

    Really you are using that stat to compare Eberle and Getzlaf like it actually means something when we’ve all seen how both are playing in this series. One is making a difference and the other is making a difference for all the wrong reasons.

  66. Seismic Source says:

    Bling,

    Yes but, If Vegas doesn’t bite who’s taking Pouliot? We could very well be stuck with that one. Eberle is movable.

    And I’m not assuming JP sticks next year or that Chia won’t resign Russel.

  67. Professor Q says:

    JDI Хоккей: Correct – it is not.

    Remote viewing, something both the US and USSR invested a lot of time and money into, as a defense project.

    It’s also a decent movie.

    I’m fairly certain they did LSD to do this.

  68. Woogie63 says:

    I think next year is about shedding contracts and continuity.

    Letestu is the VGK pick. Need to find some way to shed Pouilot and Fayne, we are set.

    36-97-14
    27-29–98
    19-93-44
    42-54-15

    77-6
    25-2
    8-83

    33
    1

    Eberle is struggling I just don’t see another 1RW in UFA or that a team might want to trade
    This would be the team for the next couple of years

  69. Gordies Elbow says:

    Woogie63,

    Why would McPhee take one year of Letestu at $1.8m, when he has picks like Reinhart, Khaira, etc. available?

  70. Bling says:

    Seismic Source:
    Bling,

    Yes but, If Vegas doesn’t bite who’s taking Pouliot? We could very well be stuck with that one. Eberle is movable.

    And I’m not assuming JP sticks next year or that Chia won’t resign Russel.

    Leon’s new contract kicks in next year, but McDavid’s wouldn’t kick in until the following season.

    There are two more seasons of Pouliot at a 4 million cap hit. I would keep him next season (McDavid not getting paid), then try to move him in the off-season OR buy him out.

    If you buy him out with one year remaining at 4 million, the cost is 1.3 million over two years, leading to a cap savings of 2.7 million.

    That savings, incidentally, is greater than that of replacing Eberle with JP next season (or whomever; I would think a replacement for Eberle would cost at least 3.5 million, and that’s being optimistic).

  71. Scungilli Slushy says:

    N64: Or they could be targets for goat hunters that zero in on isolated numbers rather than the net results relative to role.

    Sometimes it’s simply a matter of a new sheriff in town who moves the riverboat gamblers out of town. There is always another poker game down the road for a gambler that still has bank.

  72. JDI Хоккей says:

    Professor Q,

    But not just LSD. Psilocybin, mescaline, cannabis and classic rock. Boston works well.

  73. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Professor Q: I’m fairly certain they did LSD to do this.

    The goats or the starers? Or both?

  74. Ryan says:

    VOR:
    who,

    Just for context, Ryan Getzlaf shot from 25.89 feet on average this year and is shooting from 33.3 feet in the playoffs.

    I will say it again, Jordan Eberle is not a perimeter shooter.

    Really, it’s crazy. I’m one of the biggest cynics here and I can’t explain it.

    Just a few years ago, Pouliot – Nuge – Eberle was a serviceable poor man’s top line (when Hall was injured).

    Now they collectively can’t piss a single drop in 12 playoff games.

    Pouliot is 30. Eberle 26. Nuge 24.

    $16m cap hit. Zero goals.six points total.

    Absolutely baffling.

  75. Pouzar says:

    Ryan: Really, it’s crazy. I’m one of the biggest cynics here and I can’t explain it.

    Just a few years ago, Pouliot – Nuge – Eberle was a serviceable poor man’s top line (when Hall was injured).

    Now they collectively can’t piss a single drop in 12 playoff games.

    Pouliot is 30. Eberle 26. Nuge 24.

    $16m cap hit. Zero goals.six points total.

    Absolutely baffling.

    +1

  76. Derek says:

    VOR:
    I can’t help wondering if we have all suddenly given up on math and decided instead that seen them good is now the gold standard:

    Some Eberle facts:

    -this season Eberle had the most shots he has ever had (208) while playing fewer minutes than in the past particularly on the power play.
    -he was second on the team in shots on net.
    -he was third on the team in shots attempted.
    -he was third amongst regulars in CF% and also in FF%.
    -his shooting % plunged to 9.6% from 14.5% in the previous season.
    -had he shot as well this year as last he would have had 29 goals. Even if he had shot his career average of 13.4 he would have had 28 goals.
    -why his shooting cratered is a good question but it is worth noting that it isn’t part of a trend because last year was the second best shooting year of his career.
    -this season the on ice save percentage (92.7 -career high) when Eberle was on the ice was spectacular so even with a terrible on ice shooting% (7.7 -career low) he had a PDO of 100.4
    -Eberle’s heat maps over the years are fascinating. They are remarkably consistent up until 2015-2016. In that season he shoots a reasonable amount but it is a pale ghost of former heat maps, the shots don’t come from a few red hot spots, they are unfocused and “fuzzy”. There is almost nothing from the right side of the crease which is one of his two go to areas in all other years, the other is the left hand side of the crease. He still went there, a lot, but didn’t get as good an outcome and it is probably partly because his heat map is about a foot broader and far more unfocused. This season slightly more of his shots came from the high slot or the hash marks or behind the net than in past years. His go to area on the right hand side was still largely missing in action and the left hand side of the crease remains a bit “fuzzy”. It all looks washed out versus the red hot heat maps of his early years.
    -the trend to widening his offence has continued in the playoffs but it isn’t as big a difference as people seem to think and it doesn’t indicate a perimeter shooter. The hash marks, high slot and behind the net are not places players go to hide. His degree of difficulty fell by about 2% season over season and has fallen roughly another 1% in the playoffs. That is overall about 3% less of his shot attempts are from the HDSC Box. He is still going into the land of tall trees routinely but just not with quite the same laser focus.
    -there is also some evidence that his teammates aren’t getting him the puck in the same parts of the ice as in previous years. He keeps going to the crease but doesn’t get the puck in the slot or the crease. Though he is certainly opening up ice for RNH.
    -what is really striking is that he is shooting the puck on net roughly 21% less in the playoffs than during the regular season
    -this isn’t because he hasn’t had the puck, his possession numbers indicate that he is maintaining a now well established pattern as a dominant possession player
    -he actually leads the Oilers in some possession stats for the playoffs and is close to the lead in others
    -his drop off in shots per minute (a measure of volume shooting) from 0.15 shots per minute on net during the regular season to 0.12 during the playoffs is partly due to taking fewer shot attempts from 0.28 shot attempts per minute to 0.24 shot attempts per minute but is also due to missing more shots and being blocked more often in the playoffs than he was in the regular season
    -his successful shot ratio (shots/shot attempts) fell from 55% to 49%
    -he is definitely giving up slightly more high danger scoring chances than he is generating but it amounts to three more HDSC conceeded than generated in 12 games and against above average opponents. Against San Jose he had the Pavelski line most commonly and against Anaheim it is the Getzlaff line
    -what has gone wrong is his on ice sv% has once again cratered (he has had some bad goaltending luck when he has been on the ice) and his on ice sh% has fallen off the face of the earth, far more than the facts I have just recounted would suggest it should have
    -the most likely explanation (given there has been no mention of sickness or injury and he has posted really good possession numbers) is he is playing in exceedingly bad luck
    -Oilers fans maybe need to look at the Oilers’ overall possession and shot metrics. The Oilers generate the most or nearly the most shots, scoring chances etc. of any team in the playoffs but they are dead last or close to it for every against metric. And in fact they are getting out played even once you allow for score effects
    -can the team really afford to get rid of one of the four guys it has who tilts the ice the other way?
    -I would want to know if there isn’t a coaching change that explains the increased shooting volume, the widening of shot orientation focus, and the trips through the HDSC Box where he never sees the puck before I got rid of this player and I would certainly wait for his shooting % to normalize.

    Thank you for this and the posts afterwards. You seem to have done a bit of work to put all that together and all you’re getting in return is “LOL watch teh gamez nerd”. So thank you.

    “Saw him good” seems to suffer quite a bit of emotional bias, and the emotions are cranked to 11 for players and viewers during the playoffs.

    I hope Ebs hasn’t punched his ticket out of town by going cold at the worst time of the year.

  77. JDI Хоккей says:

    Derek: I hope Ebs hasn’t punched his ticket out of town by going cold at the worst time of the year.

    He showed a lot more jump against the Sharts.

    So for me, the most rational conclusion is that he’s afraid of Ducks.

  78. Professor Q says:

    JDI Хоккей:
    Professor Q,

    But not just LSD. Psilocybin, mescaline, cannabis and classic rock. Boston works well.

    So it really IS more than a feeling, eh…

  79. Thorin says:

    I come here just as much for the colourful commentary as for the actual articles. Both are fantastic! Sometimes the comments go off the rails a bit, and usually when they do I’m late to the party and a whole new post is up so there’s no point in me posting to the old thread because no one will read it.

    But the below just had to be picked up out of the last thread.

    khildahl:
    I feel like I’ve entered the Thunderdome, but all of the pointy and/or sharp weapons have been replaced with horse carcasses in varying states of decay.

    Kudos to Khildahl for this awesome imagery.

    Showerhead:
    khildahl,
    We’re all a bunch of neigh-slayers.

    And then Showerhead knocks it out of the park!

    —–

    and then as I’m typing this a whole conversation about goats, psylocibin, and staring develops!

  80. Woogie63 says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Woogie63,

    Why would McPhee take one year of Letestu at $1.8m, when he has picks like Reinhart, Khaira, etc. available?

    I see Letestu as a great pick up for VGK, seasoned vet, plays PP and PK win’s face offs

    Lots of questions marks on Griffen and JJ. McPhee would have control over the contract, but frankly they are good AHLer with upside. The list on CapFriendly looks full of this type of player.

    Do you see it differently?

  81. Professor Q says:

    Scungilli Slushy: The goats or the starers? Or both?

    Well this changes everything…

  82. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Derek: I hope Ebs hasn’t punched his ticket out of town by going cold at the worst time of the year.

    IMO a move would have a lot more to do with the tastes of the new GM, having McDavid and Leon, and the need to move some bigger salaries, than Eberle’s sideburns and struggles that others are also having.

  83. Professor Q says:

    As a side note, currently dealing with a *different* type of acid.

    So I’m actually an idiot, and this is all a façade.

    Left batteries on the woodwn TV for too long, and only noticed the white powder right now. Sigh. No baking powder in the house, either.

    Forgive me, Woodguy, for I have failed thee.

  84. JDI Хоккей says:

    Professor Q: No baking powder in the house, either.

    That’s okay – you need baking soda anyway.

    But I don’t think the power is acidic. Just clean it up with a damp rag.

    Now back to trying to cipher woodwn…

  85. VOR says:

    Johnny Stomper,

    You are probably trolling but in case you are serious, as a fan I agree with you. However, this blog has established itself as a place where math and statistics are valid and valued tools in discussion and debate. So what the math says:

    Give both players equal luck. Give both players equal time on ice. Any remaining difference is down to skill.

    Getzlaf is shooting 23.5%, so reduce him to his career average of 11.8%. He has 34 shots in 24+ minutes a game. So he would go from 8 goals to 4. Eberle is shooting 0%. Take him up to 13.4% his career average. He has 21 shots in 14+ minutes a game. So at 13.4% he would be at 3 goals. But wait, we need to adjust for the difference in minutes played. Oddly, Eberle, once we adjust for minutes played, has almost the same number of shots per game as Getzlaf with 35.

    Both are elite generators of offensive opportunities. So you would expect their scoring opportunities to be relatively similar per minute played and they are. Getzlaf is the more valuable player without question but without lady luck hugging Getzlaf like her father on his death bed he isn’t having an extraordinary playoff, with out lady luck giving Jordan Eberle the finger like he stood her up on a date he looks like a rock solid offensive player who can play against the toughs and more than saw off.

    A lot of people seem to be letting a failure to understand the role luck is playing in the outcomes of this series blind them to the reality, Jordan Eberle is actually playing quite well.

    I am merely suggesting that any analysis of Eberle’s relative economic value and future impact on the team or as a trade asset needs to allow that over time the influence of luck tends to wax and wane.

  86. JDI Хоккей says:

    Professor Q,

    Holy carp – you have a WOODEN TV?

  87. Professor Q says:

    JDI Хоккей: That’s okay – you need baking soda anyway.

    But I don’t think the power is acidic. Just clean it up with a damp rag.

    Now back to trying to cipher woodwn…

    I did mean soda, in its powdered form, yet alas. My Professor title surely is taking a hit tonight…

  88. JDI Хоккей says:

    Professor Q,

    What do modern hockey broadcasts look like in 240i?

  89. Jethro Tull says:

    JDI Хоккей: Correct – it is not.

    Remote viewing, something both the US and USSR invested a lot of time and money into, as a defense project.

    It’s also a decent movie.

    Remote viewing is what the NHL uses to reviews Oiler’s coach’s challenges. Scrying causing crying.

    The staring thing doesn’t work. You can tell by the lack of dead referees on the ice.

  90. Gordies Elbow says:

    Woogie63,

    I’d take a player under control for more than 1 year if I were the GM of an expansion franchise. They have no development network (aside from signing free agents.) and have excess cap to play with.

    Personally, I’d pick players 20-25, and fill in the team with more expensive free agents.

    PS: Love Letestu, hope he’s not picked, but can’t see LVGK taking him due to him only being under contract for 1 year.

  91. Ryan says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Woogie63,

    Why would McPhee take one year of Letestu at $1.8m, when he has picks like Reinhart, Khaira, etc. available?

    I wondered that too at one point.

    Khaira and Reinhart are younger players with contract control and some benefits compared to a Letsetu.

    You could make the argument that Reinhart and Khaira are not proven NHL players/ players with low ceilings if they do make it (4rth line winger/bottom pairing defensemen).

    In that regard, Letestu is an actual NHL player, right handed centre, and someone Vegas could parlay into a draft pick at the deadline.

    What could you trade Letstu for at next year’s trade deadline? Maybe a 2nd rounder depending on the market?

    What would you realistically get back for Khaira at this point? I’m rooting for Khaira, but no way you could trade him for anything resembling either a second rounder or even a 3rd.

    Reinhart, it’s hard to say. He’s certainly no longer worth the 1st/2nd round picks Snow obtained for him. With his development flagging combined with the expansion draft, he wouldn’t be worth much prior to the expansion draft. After if Vegas selected him, maybe a 3rd for a flagging high profile pick.

    Overall, if you think of these assets in terms of what they could get back in draft picks, it changes your perspective.

  92. JDI Хоккей says:
  93. JDI Хоккей says:

    Jethro Tull: Remote viewing is what the NHL uses to reviews Oiler’s coach’s challenges.

    Need more acid.

  94. Gordies Elbow says:

    Ryan,

    I’m not sure that an NHL GM would look at Reinhart’s development as you have. 23 year old, 6’4″, 212lb defender who by all accounts played well in the AHL this season and is RFA.

    I would expect that he’s worth more than Gryba, who returned a 4th round pick when traded, due to age and contract.

    If I were GMGM, he’d be near the top of the list of players to take, and for good reason. Cheap, close to NHL, defender, and controllable long-term.

  95. JDI Хоккей says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    But he’s waiver eligible next season, no?

    So if he doesn’t make the team, it’s a risk he’ll be lost.

    Aside from the proven NHL players, it’s been suggested that the Vags will be looking for waiver exempt tweeners.

  96. Professor Q says:

    JDI Хоккей:
    Professor Q,

    Holy carp – you have a WOODEN TV?

    Good ol’ RCA Twin Tuner PIP Home Theatre HP.

    About a 32″ screen only, but the box itself is ~57″.

  97. Professor Q says:

    JDI Хоккей:
    Professor Q,

    What do modern hockey broadcasts look like in 240i?

    I usually watch on my phone, or notebook (GameCentre). But when I did watch it in this tube it actually looked fine! It had Rogers Cable so it wasn’t all that bad (yes, sorry Lowetide, I know you’re a Bell Media guy…).

  98. Gordies Elbow says:

    JDI Хоккей,

    Is he one of the top 7 defenders for LVGK? Wouldn’t shock me, based on what’s available.

    PS: AFAIK, LVGK is limited to the number of RFA players not under contract that they can select. GR might not be the player that they’re looking at as he’ll be an unsigned RFA. Anyone know the specifics of the rules?

    PPS: Honestly. which “waiver exempt tweeners” do you think they’ll take?

  99. Ryan says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Ryan,

    I’m not sure that an NHL GM would look at Reinhart’s development as you have. 23 year old, 6’4″, 212lb defender who by all accounts played well in the AHL this season and is RFA.

    I would expect that he’s worth more than Gryba, who returned a 4th round pick when traded, due to age and contract.

    If I were GMGM, he’d be near the top of the list of players to take, and for good reason. Cheap, close to NHL, and controllable long-term.

    Well, you never know. I wasn’t completely ruling out interest in Reinhart for Vegas, but suggesting a reason why Letestu might be an option for them. Also, in fairness to me I did suggest maybe a 3rd rounder which is more than Gryba returned. Who knows, maybe they could even get more for him in trade.

    As a counterpoint to you, Gryba only returned a 4rth and he is 6’4″ 228 lbs and he plays with a serious edge. He also has the coveted right hand shot and had already played 165 NHL games.

    When even dudes who comment on hockey blogs like us all know that it’s rare for a defensemen drafted in the first round to do much after they haven’t cracked an NHL lineup in their draft plus 5 season, I am sure this is no secret to GMs.

  100. serum114 says:

    I haven’t heard much talk of Justin Williams as an FA target (though I could well have missed it, my comment reading is far from religious). If Eberle is a luxury they decide they can’t afford, Williams at ~half the cost over 2-3 years seems like he could fit in to right side with any of Connor, Leon, or Nuge. And with the Oilers ascending, I think they would be a desirable landing spot for a vet looking to win.

  101. Gordies Elbow says:

    Ryan,

    I get that – but Gryba was 27 when traded, and had enough experience that you pretty much knew what you were getting when he was traded. GR is 23, and a borderline NHL player. Not really sure what you’re going to get with him.

    Personally, I’d like LVGK to take another player, that said, if I were GMGM, I’d take GR as my pick. Defender, big, close. I wouldn’t be shocked to see that the commentary is about the player lost in the expansion draft, not what was given up to get him, in the not to distant future.

  102. godot10 says:

    Reinhart is a tradeable asset by Vegas to a team they pick a defensemen from or a team that is going to lose a defensemen in free agency.

    The Capitals are losing Alzner. Vegas can trade him there. The Jets might be looking for a cheap left shot D, and they have a plethora of young forward prospects. St. Louis might lose a D in the expansion draft. Vegas can trade them Reinhart back for a forward. Florida could use a left shot D. Reinhart is likely better than the 3rd pairing guys on Ottawa, and he will be cheap.

  103. Gordies Elbow says:

    Ryan: I wondered that too at one point.

    Khaira and Reinhart are younger players with contract control and some benefits compared to a Letsetu.

    You could make the argument that Reinhart and Khaira are not proven NHL players/ players with low ceilings if they do make it (4rth line winger/bottom pairing defensemen).

    In that regard, Letestu is an actual NHL player, right handed centre, and someone Vegas could parlay into a draft pick at the deadline.

    What could you trade Letstu for at next year’s trade deadline? Maybe a 2nd rounder depending on the market?

    What would you realistically get back for Khaira at this point? I’m rooting for Khaira, but no way you could trade him for anything resembling either a second rounder or even a 3rd.

    One other thing, if I”m GMGM, I’d remember that gambling on the market (e.g. Vrbata for Canucks, Russell for the Flames,) isn’t a guarantee.

    GMGM could pick up a player, and the market simply isn’t there for that player that year. I’d take younger, controlled players, and fill in my roster with more expensive UFA’s.

  104. JDI Хоккей says:

    Gordies Elbow: I’d take GR as my pick.

    But you can’t say that without knowing all the players available from the other 29 teams. Those are the known unknowns.

  105. Gordies Elbow says:

    JDI Хоккей,

    This is based upon my guesses, based upon players available, and could change.

    That said, goalies are worth more, but Edmonton doesn’t have a goalie that I think would be taken with a pick. Then comes defenders, and GR is high on that list. Then centres, and Jujhar Khaira is high on that list.

    As I mentioned earlier, a trade of Eberle and a pick/prospect for requiring LVGK takes Pouliot and the rights to Calle Jarnkrok might be the best outcome for Edmonton. Clears $8M in cap, adds a value contract, and fills in a hole at RHC. Don’t know what the pick/prospect would need to be, though.

  106. JDI Хоккей says:

    Gordies Elbow: This is based upon my guesses

    So you’ve predicted the entire upcoming roster for the VeeGees?

    I smell an off-season Hunter contest.

  107. LMHF#1 says:

    serum114:
    I haven’t heard much talk of Justin Williams as an FA target (though I could well have missed it, my comment reading is far from religious). If Eberle is a luxury they decide they can’t afford, Williams at ~half the cost over 2-3 years seems like he could fit in to right side with any of Connor, Leon, or Nuge. And with the Oilers ascending, I think they would be a desirable landing spot for a vet looking to win.

    He was mentioned several days ago. Would be an excellent choice on the right contract.

  108. EtownDre says:

    PUCKSTOPSHERE,

    I like this idea. The irony just drips off it lol

  109. Evilas says:

    JDI Хоккей,

    Not baaaad, or you could stare at goats while doing this:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ttSQ8cFG33E

  110. Gordies Elbow says:

    JDI Хоккей,

    Capfriendly’s site helps a great deal, but yeah, would make for a good Hunter game…

  111. Seismic Source says:

    Bling: Leon’s new contract kicks in next year, but McDavid’s wouldn’t kick in until the following season.

    There are two more seasons of Pouliot at a 4 million cap hit. I would keep him next season (McDavid not getting paid), then try to move him in the off-season OR buy him out.

    If you buy him out with one year remaining at 4 million, the cost is 1.3 million over two years, leading to a cap savings of 2.7 million.

    That savings, incidentally, is greater than that of replacing Eberle with JP next season (or whomever; I would think a replacement for Eberle would cost at least 3.5 million, and that’s being optimistic).

    Thanks. Well put.

    18-19 scares the shit out of me. So many RFAs with an entire season next year to drive their cost up. I wish there was more stagger.

  112. russ99 says:

    5. Find a defensively responsible second pairing RH D with puck moving acumen.

    IMO, to replace Russell with a solely Corsi-positive Pysyk or Demers type would be reducing defense to add offense.

    While it would be great to acquire stout defense and better offense (like a Hamonic), we can’t backslide defensively and still contend for a cup.

    Especially since 2-3 of our defenders will be younger, still developing, still shaky, own-zone players.

  113. Dennis King says:

    I hope Nuge doesn’t read this blog or else he’ll take one look at that and retire:)

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