RE 16-17 JORDAN EBERLE: KARMA POLICE

Jordan Eberle has been a consistent offensive player since arriving in Edmonton fall 2010. Per 82gp, Eberle had scored 64 points, and he had played 80+ games in two of his last three seasons. A player with that kind of consistency, in his 20’s, should be easy to project. Right? Add the fact Eberle had a chance to play with Connor McDavid and things could get interesting in a hurry. Make sense? Never happened. Eberle, perhaps the most obvious RW for 97, played only 36 percent of his 5×5 time with the Oilers best player. (Karma Police).

JORDAN EBERLE 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.76 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.47 (4th among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 51.8
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 2.3
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 50.0
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 2.1
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 208 shots/9.6%
  • Boxcars: 82, 20-31-51
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS

  • RE 16-17: 75, 27-34-61 (0.813)
  • Actual 16-17: 82, 20-31-51 (0.622)
  • Source
  1. You really should gather up your RE’s and put them in a book. Think so?
  2. Sure! People love comedy! Let’s get started.
  3. What happened? When a scorer doesn’t score, first thing to check is shooting percentage. Eberle had a 14.11 percentage entering this season, so should have finished with 29 goals in a normal season based on shot total.
  4. Is he aging? As we all are. Turns 27 next week, with his best offensive seasons behind him. Still, his shooting percentage should correct in 2017-18.
  5. Anything else about his offense? He’s down about 20 seconds in power-play time per game, 41 seconds a game at even strength. Jordan Eberle is a 2line RW who gets a little more than two minutes a night on the 5×4.
  6. What does Eberle do well? Historically, score goals. Leading into this season, he averaged 28 goals per 82 games. That’s a substantial total.
  7. And this season? He shot the puck enough but they weren’t cashing as before. Eberle’s ‘dusting off the puck’ is a regular meme on the call-in radio shows, maybe that’s a factor. He does seem hesitant to let it rip, maybe he has the yips.
  8. Last year at this time, you said Eberle was going to be the man traded! I wrote last April “it is easier to replace Eberle and sign Eriksson or Okposo or Brouwer or Vanek. You can trade Hall if you know Lucic is coming (I would not do that, bet Chiarelli would love to bring Lucic here), and you could trade Nuge if you knew David Krejci was on the way. I think a lot of what we are doing is pissing in the wind, because PC will know who he has a good chance to land and we do not.Source
  9. Who is going this summer? Once you tell me, I’ll bet the other guy. My money is on Eberle going, so it’s Nuge for sure.
  10. What is the most damning thing about him? Eberle’s 5×5 scoring is going the wrong way.
  11. How bad is it? Since 2011-12, Eberle’s 5×5/60’s were 3.08, 2.31, 2.03, 1.97, 1.85 and then 1.76 in 2016-17. That’s fairly consistent erosion.
  12. That isn’t good. Eberle actually recovered in a big way, he was lagging like dial-up for the first half of the season.
  13. Who did he play a lot with? RNH (634 minutes together, Eberle 1.61/60 5×5, and 50.6 Corsi for 5×5 together) and Lucic (577 minutes together, Eberle 1.87/60 5×5, and 51.0 Corsi for 5×5 together).
  14. Not bad. For $18 million? Take the gas pipe. That line has three of my favorite Oilers, but this is not a season to trumpet for any of them. I remember being worried at the beginning of the year about Nuge-Eberle. Nothing rhymed, and the slump lasted all year.
  15. Who are his comparables now? James Neal, Logan Couture, Mike Richards, Bobby Ryan. It’s a good list, although most or all have a wider range of skills. The closest pure offensive player is probably Derek Roy, who had a fine career going through seven seasons.
  16. How many more years on the contract? Two. The Oilers have to trade a big contract by the time McDavid’s deal kicks in fall 2018. Eberle would have one year left on his contract at that point.
  17. Is he still the best righty scorer on the team? Yes, until Jesse Puljujarvi replaces him. Among RH shots, the leading scorers were Eberle (20), Mark Letestu (16), Tyler Pitlick (8), Zack Kassian (7) and Anton Slepyshev (4).
  18. How much of a threat is Jesse Puljujarvi? I don’t think that JP is a threat at all. These two men are ships that will pass in the night. By the time Peter Chiarelli finds a market for Jordan Eberle, and it could be this summer, Puljujarvi will be in the RW mix for minutes with (probably) Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian, Anton Slepyshev, Tyler Pitlick and Iiro Pakarinen. Maybe the club grabs a UFA veteran to boot.
  19. Why this song? It was going to get play in this series for a few reasons, including “maths” and “karma”. I think the song is about confusion and misunderstanding, suspect that’s a big part of what Eberle is going through at this time.
  20. Misunderstanding? I’m at a bit of a loss as to why Oilers fans are all over Eberle. He is as he has always been, with (probably) less foot speed and a hitch in his giddyup (dusting off, before shooting).
  21. People want quality! Jordan Eberle scores goals, toughest thing to do in the game.
  22. He doesn’t score that many. Since 2010 fall when he entered the NHL, Eberle has scored 165 goals, No. 24 among NHL players in that time. He is ahead of Marian Hossa, Blake Wheeler, Claude Giroux, Taylor Hall.
  23. Yeah, but he’s one dimensional. Sure, but it is an important dimension. You can’t have a roster of Eberle’s, but one first-shot scorer (at least) is required.
  24. So, what, you keep him? I think he is the one to be dealt, depending on return. The Oilers need a scoring forward (R or C, depending on Leon) and a second-pairing RHD. You can’t just say “JP  will replace Eberle’s goals” because Puljujarvi didn’t score 15 in the NHL this season. Can Caggiula play 1R and JP 2R? That’s not exactly an established murderer’s row.
  25. You’re arguing both sides now. Not at all. Let’s say the Oilers deal Jordan Eberle for Travis Hamonic this summer. Fair? That gives you a 7D of Klefbom-Larsson; Sekera-Hamonic; Nurse-Benning and Reinhart/Gryba. Your LW’s are probably Maroon-Lucic-Caggiula and your centers are McDavid-Leon-Nuge RW? Hmm. 2R could be Puljujarvi, 3R Kassian and 4R Slepyshev, but who is the 1R?
  26. Lots of great candidates! Sure. Jordan Eberle has scored 20 or more goals in five of his seven seasons, and one of the others was the lockout year. The final one was his rookie season, 18 goals.
  27. So trade Nuge? Maybe Peter Chiarelli can find a RW version of Patrick Maroon. Maybe it’s Slepyshev or Caggiula and maybe Puljujarvi puts it all to rest this fall. Expansion means fewer of those value contracts out there in August and September, and the Oilers are going to be in win mode at that time. It’s a tough decision, despite Eberle’s flaws.
  28. Make a prediction! I think the Oilers will trade Eberle for a C or RHD and then add the other piece via trade or free agency. I’ll use Hamonic as the defenseman example (may not be him) and Casey Cizikas as the center example (may not be him) just for fun.
  29. So what do the lines look like? Possibly Maroon-McDavid-Caggiula; Lucic-Draisiatil-Puljujarvi; Cizikas-Nuge-Slepyshev; Khaira-Letestu-Kassian. Then you could move Cizikas over to center if Leon is required at RW.
  30. What are the odds of Eberle returning? Less than 50 percent, in my opinion.
  31. Is there anything that can turn it around? Of course. If Eberle scores some big goals in the playoffs (tomorrow night?) his value will once again be established. He had a helluva run to the end of the season, and was very helpful in the period beginning in late March when the Flames caught Edmonton for third in the Pacific Division. He caught fire from that point on and delivered down the stretch.

 

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227 Responses to "RE 16-17 JORDAN EBERLE: KARMA POLICE"

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  1. Stelio Kontos says:

    I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

    I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

    That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

  2. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: They really should make a movie.

    The only viable approach would be to take the Lowe+MacT years and either go for the “Slapshot” comedy angle, or else it’s a musical.

  3. hunter1909 says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

    I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

    That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

    You poor man.

    Look at the bright side: Eventually Disney will release a pathogen into the drinking water which will eliminate 90% of the deplorable types you allude to.

  4. Showerhead says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    This was a nice post. Thank you for taking the time!

  5. Chachi says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

    I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

    That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

    Wow. I don’t disagree with everything you have written, but good luck with the response to this. You might also want to go back and fix the mistakes in grammar you made in the post about how you are an intellectual slumming it with rig pigs. Also, pretty sure “Austins” originated with people you would probably identify as “intellectuals”.

  6. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Ference carried the water for Eakins, who was clearly busy chopping wood.

    Ference was like if Russell were to win the cup this season before signing back with the Flames on a 5 year 20 million dollar contract, while being made captain by the new head coach hoping to find others to scapegoat in advance.

  7. Side says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

    I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

    That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

    Please name one fan base that doesn’t have idiot fans. Then please provide a link to the forum where they talk about their favorite team.

    And why is the “Austin’s” a bad nickname? Every team has nick names for their line ups. Isn’t this in reference to the 6 million dollar man, Steve Austin? I really don’t see why this is something worth getting upset over…

  8. treevojo says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

    I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

    That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

    There is only one true intellectual.

    Gone but not forgotten.

    I will light a candle until he returns under a different name.

  9. Chachi says:

    treevojo: There is only one true intellectual.

    Gone but not forgotten.

    I will light a candle until he returns under a different name.

    HA!

  10. pocession charge says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

    I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

    That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

    Maybe time to take another long break, exulted one.

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

    I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

    That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

    Hahaha, i told you he’d be back!

  12. RENNAVATE says:

    The Oilers are on the eve of GAME SEVEN IN THE SECOND ROUND OF THE PLAYOFFS. Just one season after finishing 29th out of 30 teams.

    Let’s repeat the above over and over and over and ove

  13. treevojo says:

    Jethro Tull: Hahaha, i told you he’d be back!

    Nope.

    Not yet.

    It will be obvious.

    He would never make the mistake of bragging about superior intellect while shitting the bed with grammar.

  14. Chachi says:

    treevojo: Nope.

    Not yet.

    It will be obvious.

    He would never make the mistake of bragging about superior intellect while shitting the bed with grammar.

    This is true.

  15. hunter1909 says:

    CrazyCoach,

    for the same reason MTL brought in Radulov, good player and people change, and there’s not risk in a 1 year deal

    Radulov lol.

    Montreal are a disfunctioning golfing, patio-ready club at present. Radulov is something akin to Lowe’s idea to bring Hossa in for $100 million or whatever it was.

  16. hunter1909 says:

    Side: And why is the “Austin’s” a bad nickname? Every team has nick names for their line ups. Isn’t this in reference to the 6 million dollar man, Steve Austin? I really don’t see why this is something worth getting upset over…

    It’s not intellectual!

    Thanks to enlightened post-patriarchy men, hockey has been deigned fit for drinking fine wines over.

    How these types are dealing with Lucic, Kassian and Maroon currently gooning their way through the Pacific Division is another matter. Doublethink helps a lot.

  17. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909: The only viable approach would be to take the Lowe+MacT years and either go for the “Slapshot” comedy angle, or else it’s a musical.

    Wasn’t the plot of the ‘The Producers’ that they intentionally set out to make a play that would lose money?

    Intentionally losing. Suddenly the Lowe/MacT years start to make sense….

  18. ASkoreyko says:

    treevojo: There is only one true intellectual.

    Gone but not forgotten.

    I will light a candle until he returns under a different name.

    This is perfect.

  19. OF17 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Thanks for the kind words, Bruce. And thank you for an excellent post of your own. Eberle has had quite the long and winding story as an Oiler. It’s unlikely he wins the Cup here, but I’m glad he’s been here for these playoffs. A long time coming for Eberle to experience the home crowd in May, to feel what the ’06 crowd no doubt described. It’s not a Cup – yet – but if Eberle is dealt this summer, at least there will be a degree of closure to his arc as an Oiler. I hope for his sake he has at least a goal to remember from it.

  20. godot10 says:

    treevojo: There is only one true intellectual.

    Gone but not forgotten.

    I will light a candle until he returns under a different name.

    But I never went away! -).-).

    #AGodotYouDontHaveToWaitFor

  21. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Chiarelli is a measured man, he doesn’t have to rush at this point. I’m sure he has a clear picture of what he wants and will keep working to it. If Eberle has a good finish to the playoffs it might actually increase the likelihood of a trade. Oiler players have a history getting hurt or slumping when trade winds come.

    A lot of wheels in motion including how Benning is viewed, an unusual summer with the expansion draft, and current success. Maybe the power stays dry longer than we expect. Pouliot and Fayne are more likely up first.

  22. Pablotypus says:

    Or you could compare him to Skinner who is likely suffering from the same problem of being run over like an Armadillo in Texas once too often.

    We’ve learned a few things in Oilerville: 1) you need a goalie 2) you need defence 3) you need centers 4) wingers are a dime a dozen. IN THAT !@&!!$% order. Personally, I still like Eberle a lot, but that price tag is a huge problem with Draisaitl showing his true colors and I’d rather go forward with the ability to sign Russel, who like him or hate him, has proven himself to be far more valuable to the team than Ebs at a far lower price tag.

    It ain’t rocket science and it adds up to thinking wishfully that good old Ebs finds his mojo on an Eastern team.

  23. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pouzar:
    Eberle sucks and Nurse is “still not good”. Awesome thread indeed. See y’all tomorrow.

    Intolerance of others points of view is a source of a lot of problems here and in the unimportant world outside of Lowetide. It is possible to hear other people and not condone their point of view. Reading it doesn’t mean you accept it. I have to challenge myself on this point fairly often. If you are looking for a consensus of what seems obvious the world will be a hard place to live. We are not Borg, resistance is normal.

    Everyone chokes on having opinions rammed down their throat.

  24. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: If you had a choice to build a team around, would you choose Hampus Lindholm or Matt Murray. You would choose the young #1D.

    I’ve been a huge fan of Lindholm for a while. It really depends on the year. Sometimes the world is flush with good goalies and sometimes especially when you really need one you can’t find one. Life is so much easier when you can find both. If someone were to pick one or the other I would not argue against their decision.

  25. Spoils says:

    The three line attack worked great for the pens last year and it feels like right oil to fry these ducks in.

    Tomorrow, I will don my Nugent-Hopkins jersey and attend my fifth game of the run. To my eye the Oilers are the better team. Manage the forecheck and skate.

    The dream? Nuge and Ebs join the parade of Oilers depth lighting the lamp.

    5-2 win.

    GOil!

  26. CrazyCoach says:

    Nate780: for the same reason MTL brought in Radulov, good player and people change, and there’s not risk in a 1 year deal

    You do know he hasn’t played in 3-4 seasons in the NHL? Like dog years, unless your last name is Jagr, that’s a lot of time.

    I would offer Kovy a one year deal, league minimum, and that is it. Prove to this organization that you want to be here and understand you are not top dog here and everything you get here is earned.

    If you can’t agree to those terms, don’t bother signing and wasting my time.

  27. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Stelio Kontos,

    You do see the irony of your reductionist vitriol making you seem as ignorant as the ignorance you’re demonizing. Then again, it must be tough to see anything from all the way up there.

    Might I suggest another hiatus? I’m certainly not interested in reading how better you think you are than the average man – behaviour that contradicts the beatifuful sense of community that Edmonton has. I see that higher than thou attitude daily here in Victoria. It’s sickening.

    GOILERS.
    Go Lowetide. You are my Stan Weir.

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