PERSONAL OPINION

Peter Chiarelli has his Edmonton Oilers inside the window to win the Stanley Cup. In observing PC over many years, he is aggressive in pursuing solutions, is willing to risk losing a deal if the payoff is a better roster, and trusts his assessment and that of his scouts. Last season, when we all knew he was after a defender, all manner of rumor appeared across the hockey world. I don’t recall reading much on Adam Larsson and it’s likely we don’t have the name of the player(s) headed here this summer identified either.

From time to time, some ask my opinion on this or that matter, and today I thought it might be an idea to have a run at the summer to come. Connor McDavid’s entry-level deal is one year from expiration, and going deep into the 2018 postseason should be the goal. So, in my opinion, the Oilers have to stop employing young players who cannot contribute immediately, recalling these men to the NHL only when they are ripe or over-ready. I also think the team needs to reshape the cap spend at the top and that’s going to mean some pain. Here are my bullet point ideas, and the roster is at the end if you would like to scroll down.

  1. Get the Connor McDavid deal done. I’m uncertain about money and length, and when it happens, but this is the top priority for Edmonton this summer. If nothing else gets done, this gets done.
  2. Get Leon Draisaitl signed before he does something to increase his value. I believe the big man has increased his asking price substantially in 2017, and the sooner that deal gets signed the better. I am estimating (below) $7 million times many years, seven or eight.
  3. Prepare the roster as if Jesse Puljujarvi starts the season in Bakersfield. I think he’s a helluva prospect but the Oilers have substantial bonus money (McDavid, etc) already. If he dominates Bakersfield, plenty of opportunity to call him up. Oilers can’t be auditioning in the NHL anymore, especially with expensive bonus dollars pushing the cap.
  4. Leave Griffin Reinhart, Benoit Pouliot and Mark Letestu unprotected. I assume the Golden Knights are going to take Reinhart, and Chiarelli is going to have to endure that loss (and resulting hammering that will no doubt occur). He can survive any back lash, and going this way means the team isn’t forced into signing Iiro Pakarinen for expansion exposure purposes.
  5. Offload Benoit Pouliot. I think it may be a buyout, because I don’t think it makes any sense to sweeten the deal with LV to the point of including a young player like Caleb Jones. Buyout is here and is reflected below. There is a way to keep him, as explained below.
  6. Make a trade for a second-pairing RH defender. I’m not going to pay Shattenkirk’s ransom, and WG tells me those fancy offensive defenders are overvalued. The Florida Panthers are a team with a lot of RHD, a very rare item. The Panthers are looking for a RW who can score goals. So, my trade is Jordan Eberle and Mark Fayne to the Florida Panthers for Nick Bjugstad and Mark Pysyk. The deal gives Edmonton significant cap room for this season and next, but means there is a real drag (Bjugstadt) with considerable risk beginning 2018 fall (and running three seasons after).
  7. Sign Martin Hanzal. This gives the Oilers all kinds of options, beginning with Draisaitl on RW (necessary with the Eberle trade). It also (likely) ensures Nuge’s exit by the following season, when McDavid’s second deal hits the cap. Hanzal should come in well short of Nuge’s current deal, offering some relief when a trade finally occurs.
  8. Sign Kris Versteeg. Edmonton is going to be pushing for a Stanley with several unproven forwards (Caggiula, Khaira, Slepyshev in my model, Puljujarvi in the minors).

PROJECTED ROSTER

  • I didn’t add an offensive defenseman, but Oscar Klefbom and Matt Benning may grow into the role.
  • I added a really good defenseman who can grow with the group, giving this bunch a chance to spend several years together.
  • The buyout on Pouliot may not have been necessary, but he’s leaving so I decided to keep him as part of the puzzle. I don’t see any real reason to suggest Versteeg will be a better player in 2017-18, but the Oilers are moving on.
  • I have Hanzal as the other big addition and this gives McLellan all kinds of room to wheel. If Puljujarvi pushes up from the minors, Leon can move back to center and the organization may choose to move Nuge mid-season for RW help.
  • Bjugstad is a massive risk, and might be an astounding boner, but I like the idea of getting a long-term option (Pysyk) for Jordan Eberle. It feels right.
  • My thanks to StudMuffin for cap overage information.

The payoff is Edmonton grabbing a suitable free-agent (Hanzal) and a strong option for an area of weakness (Pysyk) who could sustain the blue for years. Bjugstad is a RHC who can play wing, a man who scored 24 goals three years ago, is 24 and 6.06, 218. Love to hear your thoughts!

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79 Responses to "PERSONAL OPINION"

  1. digger50 says:

    Sometimes an outstanding boner can be a good thing.

  2. MacT's Neglected Helmet says:

    If the plan is running with vets instead of rookies, why not (sign Pakarinen and) protect Letestu instead of Khaira? Letestu was a very important player.

    Granted, I agree that Reinhart is the likely one to go but I wouldn’t take the chance of losing Letestu. Replacing him would be more difficult than replacing Khaira imo. Khaira’s got potential, but the Oilers are in WIN-NOW mode starting now.

  3. digger50 says:

    Love this blog sharing your thoughts here.

    I have Ebs and Pou heading out as well. (God luv em)
    But I have Jessie P making the top 6. And Tyler P and JJ assisting in bottom 6. Not veterans but adding value. The need at forward is a substantial player, right hand center/winger yet to be identified.

    Nothing new here. My only worry is Peter falls short.

    Oilers d was good this year and they will continue to improve. However, Dusks d core was better and Nashville better again. Thus Oil have to do something here and I love your target of finding a talented d man who will grow with the group.

    My only different thought is to use the first round pick (2017) for acquisition. The way I see it any team that will lose a good player (like Silfverburg) will want to turn them into an asset. Trade does not help them as they cannot protect the incoming player. Thus the value of a first round pick is increased this year.

    Grab a Silfverburg for a first and look at a trade for Pysyk.

  4. frjohnk says:

    I do believe Oilers go after Hanzel.

    He is big and physical.

    He is very good in the face off circle. 54.5% or better every year since 2013-14.

    Can score. Probably looking at something like 15-20 goals 25 assists.

    Downside is that he is almost guaranteed to miss about 10 to 20 games a year, he is already 30 and what is it going to cost in money and term to sign him.

    A 3rd line involving Hanzel and Kassian would be tough to play against, good defensively and could chip in offense as well.

  5. Professor Q says:

    digger50:
    Love this blog sharing your thoughts here.

    I have Ebs and Pou heading out as well. (God luv em)But I have Jessie P making the top 6. And Tyler P and JJ assisting in bottom 6. Not veterans but adding value. The need at forward is a substantial player, right hand center/winger yet to be identified.

    Nothing new here. My only worry is Peter falls short.

    Oilers d was good this year and they will continue to improve. However, Dusks d core was better and Nashville better again. Thus Oil have to do something here and I love your target of finding a talented d man who will grow with the group.

    My only different thought is to use the first round pick (2017) for acquisition. The way I see it any team that will lose a good player (likeSilfverburg) will want to turn them into an asset. Trade does not help them as they cannot protect the incoming player. Thus the value of a first round pick is increased this year.

    Grab a Silfverburg for a first and look at a trade for Pysyk.

    Would we not then have to protect said player and then loser another? And they lose more as they just lost two, essentially?

    I don’t really get these trades as you’re losing at least one, so trading away another just so you don’t lose them seems…odd.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would move Nuge to RW and keep Leon at C

  7. Bank Shot says:

    Professor Q: Would we not then have to protect said player and then loser another? And they lose more as they just lost two, essentially?

    I don’t really get these trades as you’re losing at least one, so trading away another just so you don’t lose them seems…odd.

    You’re right of course. I guess the only way that trade would work is if a team has one player they can’t protect that is quite good and then a drop off.

    Maybe they can get something of value for the good player they would lose anyway, and would have an easy time replacing what they lose.

  8. Woogie63 says:

    I have played with that CapFriend expansion tab for hours (it nice to be retired), I think VGK is going to have a very stacked defence. I would be surprised with Griff is among their top 7 options. Since he is waiver eligible I don’t see this option for VGK.

    I see VGK being all in on Alzner and Russell as the best of the UFA young dman.

  9. Ducey says:

    Why are the Oilers leaving Letestu unprotected?

  10. frjohnk says:

    There is a reason why Bjugstad was given the contract he was at the time. Big young center who was trending in the right direction. Then something happened.

    Would be great if he turned it around, but Im not sure Chia can make a bet like this. If it does not work, and Bjugstad has another 7 goal campaign, this would hamstring the Oilers ability to compete moving forward. 4 more years at $4.1M. Basically get rid of Pouliot this year and get him back the next year but add 2 more years to the contract.

  11. frjohnk says:

    Ducey:
    Why are the Oilers leaving Letestu unprotected?

    Need two players who fulfill the requirements.

    Draisaitl
    Nuge
    EBERLE
    Lucic ( NMC)
    Letestu
    Pouliot
    Maroon

    These are the guys who fulfill the requirments. Oilers could of course, sign Pak or Kassain and expose them as they then would fulfill the requirements as well.
    https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft

  12. Thinker says:

    Anybody looked at Kulikov recently? He had a disappointing season, and could be had relatively cheap for a good dman. Only problem is that he shoots left, but he’d still be a really nice player to pick up imo.

  13. nafnikufesin says:

    If it were up to me, I protect Letestu and expose Eberle. I’m still a fam of Eberle, and I’d hate to see him go after he endured years of pain only to go just as things are turning around. I firmly believe this was a bad year, and all things being equal, I’d rather see him turn things around in an Oiler jersey than someone else’s jersey.

    That said, all things aren’t equal, and losing Eberle could bring us valuable cap space. We don’t get that by trading him, as his value right now would be low to most teams, and so not many would take him without us taking a bad contract in return. And the reality is, we lose that trade 99 times out of 100. Eberle could easily rebound next season and come close to his price tag, whereas most bad contracts we might trade him for would not have any chance of matching their value.

    On the other hand, if left exposed, Vegas could be easier to tempt. Eberle could easily end up being a first or second line player for them, and help them get to the cap floor at the same time. We lose him for nothing, but get back significant cap space without having to take a dud in return. He would need to be replaced, as our RW depth is weak, but $6 million should get you a decent player (or two) and still leave room to pay Drai.

  14. Thinker says:

    Woogie63:
    I have played with that CapFriend expansion tab for hours (it nice to be retired), I think VGK is going to have a very stacked defence.I would be surprised with Griff is amongtheir top 7 options.Since he is waiver eligible I don’t see this option for VGK.

    I see VGK being all in on Alzner and Russell as the best of the UFA young dman.

    They will have a lot of Brandon Davidson level Dmen options, which should make for good trading chips. I see no reason why they would want GR, or even JK. They are maybe bottom liners. They will take Letestu if he is there.

  15. CamRent BroBot says:

    Can Bjugstad skate?

  16. Thinker says:

    nafnikufesin:
    If it were up to me, I protect Letestu and expose Eberle. I’m still a fam of Eberle, and I’d hate to see him go after he endured years of pain only to go just as things are turning around. I firmly believe this was a bad year, and all things being equal, I’d rather see him turn things around in an Oiler jersey than someone else’s jersey.

    That said, all things aren’t equal, and losing Eberle could bring us valuable cap space. We don’t get that by trading him, as his value right now would be low to most teams, and so not many would take him without us taking a bad contract in return. And the reality is, we lose that trade 99 times out of 100. Eberle could easily rebound next season and come close to his price tag, whereas most bad contracts we might trade him for would not have any chance of matching their value.

    On the other hand, if left exposed, Vegas could be easier to tempt. Eberle could easily end up being a first or second line player for them, and help them get to the cap floor at the same time. We lose him for nothing, but get back significant cap space without having to take a dud in return. He would need to be replaced, as our RW depth is weak, but $6 million should get you a decent player (or two) and still leave room to pay Drai.

    I think if you look at the UFA list, you would not think that cap space is terribly valuable. Shame he isn’t worth more, but he is still more valuable here imo. Next offseason the cap room will be more important.

  17. OF17 says:

    That’s a great roster, LT. Six centers in the top twelve, five of whom can play top-nine minutes. Pysyk would be a cheap rocking-chair addition, which we could upgrade on at the deadline if necessary.

    It also provides great flexibility with the forwards. You could split McDavid and Draisaitl and run Nuge and Hanzal on the same line if necessary. Can you imagine trying to play against that? The best 1-2 punch in the West backed up by an absolutely killer two-way line. It’d be like having two Getzlaf lines and a Kesler line. And there’s Bjugstad and Puljujarvi too.

  18. Jethro Tull says:

    There has to be better than Kris fuckin’ Versteeg put there. Has to be.
    Kris chose to try out with the Oilers and sign with a division rival. I accept we must put the needs of the team above such things, but there’s guys in that locker room that’ll remember that. I would rather bring on a prospect than sign him.

  19. frjohnk says:

    nafnikufesin:
    If it were up to me, I protect Letestu and expose Eberle. I’m still a fam of Eberle, and I’d hate to see him go after he endured years of pain only to go just as things are turning around. I firmly believe this was a bad year, and all things being equal, I’d rather see him turn things around in an Oiler jersey than someone else’s jersey.

    That said, all things aren’t equal, and losing Eberle could bring us valuable cap space. We don’t get that by trading him, as his value right now would be low to most teams, and so not many would take him without us taking a bad contract in return. And the reality is, we lose that trade 99 times out of 100. Eberle could easily rebound next season and come close to his price tag, whereas most bad contracts we might trade him for would not have any chance of matching their value.

    On the other hand, if left exposed, Vegas could be easier to tempt. Eberle could easily end up being a first or second line player for them, and help them get to the cap floor at the same time. We lose him for nothing, but get back significant cap space without having to take a dud in return. He would need to be replaced, as our RW depth is weak, but $6 million should get you a decent player (or two) and still leave room to pay Drai.

    *takes a look at what $5 to $6M got last year in free agency*

    Ladd, 31 points at age 31. Contract ends at age 37. $5.5M

    Ericksson, 24 points at age 31. Contract ends at age 36. $6M.

    Okposo, 45 points at age 32. Contract ends at age 38. $6M.

    Backes, 38 points at age 33. Contract ends at age 37. $6M

    Nielsen, 41 points at age 32. Contract ends at age 37. $5.2M

    Lucic, 50 points at age 28. Contract ends at age 35. $6M. ( He does not look so bad)

    Now of course points are not everything, but when looking at aging curves, all of these guys will not even come close to covering their contract by the end of it. A couple of these guys will be buyouts. Other teams will be lucky if they get hurt at the tail end and the team can put them on LTIR. Lucics contract as bad as it is, was not the worst one signed last year.

    Now EBERLE at age 26 with 2 years left at $6M who scored 50 points on a down year, does not look so bad.

    He is worth more than just cap space.

  20. jtblack says:

    Wow. A lot of Info here. Isn’t it crazy how a team goes from 29th to win now in 18 months? Welcome to the Cap Era.

    I think you keep 1st round picks unless a deal is too good to be true. Although it is win now, it will be win now for the nxt 15 yrs. And although its hindsight, the Forsberg for Erat trade left Washington without a Gunner to compliment Ovie. A Lot of 1st rounders never pan out, but the ones that do, are generally Great. If we start trading our 1st rounders every year or 2, we will soon be the Hawks – High End Talent with no help. 1st rounders take time (not good), but they are also the only way to find a 30 Goal guy at ELC + Bonus.

  21. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I like the cut of your jib sir.

    I Gargoyle’d Bjugstad and Pysyk and this is what my in depth analysis came up with. Nick had herniated disc surgery, and a broken hand which is bad luck, and a groin injury that might be related to the surgery.

    Being a tall gent (gent he he) myself, if he did well after surgery he may come around. With such height it takes longer for the body to stabilize to maturity. He is hitting man age (25 YO) and could round out his career without issues beyond normal. He hasn’t had serious injuries before he claims. It is possible he’s lost a step though being injured in the area that would affect nerves to the legs. However a right hand centre is a big need, his face off % is nearing 50%.

    Pysyk is a bit less heavy than what think Sekera needs, but not for Nurse when he moves on up. I noticed he had a 0 plus minus last season which was best for the D group. I have no idea about his skating but assume he’s decent not being a huge player and must have some puck talent or you wouldn’t like him.

    To unload players without a spot and clear cap with more suitable replacements is pure genius.

    The only question is whether these gents are defensively minded enough to move the dial forward?

  22. Bank Shot says:

    nafnikufesin:
    If it were up to me, I protect Letestu and expose Eberle. I’m still a fam of Eberle, and I’d hate to see him go after he endured years of pain only to go just as things are turning around. I firmly believe this was a bad year, and all things being equal, I’d rather see him turn things around in an Oiler jersey than someone else’s jersey.

    That said, all things aren’t equal, and losing Eberle could bring us valuable cap space. We don’t get that by trading him, as his value right now would be low to most teams, and so not many would take him without us taking a bad contract in return. And the reality is, we lose that trade 99 times out of 100. Eberle could easily rebound next season and come close to his price tag, whereas most bad contracts we might trade him for would not have any chance of matching their value.

    On the other hand, if left exposed, Vegas could be easier to tempt. Eberle could easily end up being a first or second line player for them, and help them get to the cap floor at the same time. We lose him for nothing, but get back significant cap space without having to take a dud in return. He would need to be replaced, as our RW depth is weak, but $6 million should get you a decent player (or two) and still leave room to pay Drai.

    You can easily trade Eberle without taking back salary.

    Letestu had a good playoffs on the PP, but there is no way he replicates that again.

    As a low end NHL going into next season turning 33, Letestu has likely got a year or two tops left in the NHL.

    If that’s all the Oilers lose to expansion, that would be excellent.

    I feel like the Oilers can replace him on the PP.

  23. Glass says:

    Can anyone educate me on Pysyk vs Petrovik? I’m not familiar with Florida’s D. From what I understand, Petrovik is a defensive D; better version of Gryba/Fayne. Completely not sure what Pysyk is like or if he is good in his own end.

    Did Pysyk slot into 2RD on Florida’s depth chart?

  24. Lowetide says:

    Glass:
    Can anyone educate me on Pysyk vs Petrovik? I’m not familiar with Florida’s D. From what I understand, Petrovik is a defensive D; better version of Gryba/Fayne. Completely not sure what Pysyk is like or if he is good in his own end.

    Did Pysyk slot into 2RD on Florida’s depth chart?

    Pysyk is an excellent skater, moves the puck well and passes well. He could be described as a two-way type, biggest flaw is that he won’t help you on the power play.

  25. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bank Shot: You can easily trade Eberle without taking back salary.

    Letestu had a good playoffs on the PP, but there is no way he replicates that again.

    As a low end NHL going into next season turning 33, Letestu has likely got a year or two tops left in the NHL.

    If that’s all the Oilers lose to expansion, that would be excellent.

    I feel like the Oilers can replace him on the PP.

    JP can do that while playing a less responsible role. Also likely Slepy. You only have to finish out if that spot, the playmaking is covered.

  26. Stud Muffin says:

    The Kovalchuk situation is so unique I really hope Chiarelli makes a move, I believe this guy can still be an Impact forward and put up 65 points, his defensive game with NJ was actually pretty good. If you could sign Kovie 2-3 years at 5.5-6m and give a little extra to NJ to retain a piece of that it would really set this team up for a few years.

  27. Glass says:

    Lowetide,

    Wow. I’d do that trade. My only critique with your roster is that Hanzal + Bjugstad make for a pretty expensive bottom 6.

    I still think next year is a growth year, which would probably piss some people off. If you watched Todd McLellan’s interview this morning, you would have noticed he mentioned Caggiula & Slepyshev could be top 6 players, but they need to be consistent. Those two will continue to establish themselves next year, along with Nurse & Benning. I don’t expect Puljujarvi to make an immediate impact next season, but surely he will the following one.

    I must say though, the Eberle + Fayne for Bjugstad + Pysyk trade seems realistic, and would solve a lot of problems in one transaction.

  28. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I like the cut of your jib sir.

    I Gargoyle’d Bjugstad and Pysyk and this is what my in depth analysis came up with. Nick had herniated disc surgery, and a broken hand which is bad luck, and a groin injury that might be related to the surgery.

    Being a tall gent (gent he he) myself, if he did well after surgery he may come around. With such height it takes longer for the body to stabilize to maturity. He is hitting man age (25 YO) and could round out his career without issues beyond normal. He hasn’t had serious injuries before he claims. It is possible he’s lost a step though being injured in the area that would affect nerves to the legs. However a right hand centre is a big need, his face off % is nearing 50%.

    Pysyk is a bit less heavy than what think Sekera needs, but not for Nurse when he moves on up. I noticed he had a 0 plus minus last season which was best for the D group. I have no idea about his skatingbut assume he’s decent not being a huge player and must have some puck talent or you wouldn’t like him.

    To unload players without a spot and clear cap with more suitable replacements is pure genius.

    The only question is whether these gents are defensively minded enough to move the dial forward?

    I realize my comment ‘pure genius’ might come across as a dig, my intention was the opposite. It would be a smart play and something I could see Chiarelli doing.

  29. jtblack says:

    Not sure why, but I like Bjugstad. Size, age, potential etc. His Cap hit is OK if he becomes a 15 G 15 A guy who can win faceoffs. Can he not be a 3C?

  30. LMHF#1 says:

    Certainly a roster capable of winning. I would do a couple things differently:

    Aim higher on RHD – willing to part with more to shoot higher than Pysyk.

    Would be willing to trade Maroon. Why? I’m a fan, but trading a guy like Maroon is done in baseball all the time and if you get the right offer, you can do that.

    Would rather keep Leon at C and add a Justin Williams than add Hanzal. I get why it makes sense though.

    My extra signing would of course be Ales Hemsky, who could play the Letestu spot on the powerplay with none of his shortcomings, and go up and down the lineup as necessary.

  31. John Chambers says:

    Two words: Jumbo Joe.

    Thornton should be the play for 3C. $3M x 2 years.

    For him I can imagine that it’s all about winning, and Connor is his ticket back to the Cup finals.

  32. Diablo says:

    LMHF#1:

    My extra signing would of course be Ales Hemsky, who could play the Letestu spot on the powerplay with none of his shortcomings, and go up and down the lineup as necessary.

    The last time that Ales Hemsky scored 11 goals on the PP was ……… never.
    The last time Ales Hemsky put up more than 10 points on the PP in a season 13/14.
    Unlike Letestu, Ales Hemsky is made of glass and can’t win a face-off.

    Honestly, I don’t get the pining of this fanbase for washed-up ex-Oilers.

  33. Professor Q says:

    John Chambers:
    Two words: Jumbo Joe.

    Thornton should be the play for 3C. $3M x 2 years.

    For him I can imagine that it’s all about winning, and Connor is his ticket back to the Cup finals.

    Are his legs holding together?

  34. LMHF#1 says:

    Diablo: The last time that Ales Hemsky scored 11 goals on the PP was ……… never.
    The last time Ales Hemsky put up more than 10 points on the PP in a season 13/14.
    Unlike Letestu, Ales Hemsky is made of glass and can’t win a face-off.

    Honestly, I don’t get the pining of this fanbase for washed-up ex-Oilers.

    Ales Hemsky never had Connor McDavid feeding him passes in the low circle. He’s made for it.

    You also clearly don’t know what LMHF#1 means.

  35. Professor Q says:

    LMHF#1: Ales Hemsky never had Connor McDavid feeding him passes in the low circle. He’s made for it.

    You also clearly don’t know what LMHF#1 means.

    Last-Minute Hemsky Fan #1?

  36. Diablo says:

    jtblack:
    Not sure why, but I like Bjugstad.Size, age, potential etc.His Cap hit is OK if he becomes a 15 G 15 A guy who can win faceoffs.Can he not be a 3C?

    Perusing the Florida boards, it seems that Bjugstad was heavily sheltered when he had that 40 point season – he’s not strong in the dot and according to (the small number of) Florida fans, his hockey sense is next to zilch. They’d be glad to get rid of him, and will throw in Demers for a 7th as well.

    I’m not sure how much of that is necessarily true, but his injury woes are the big red flag for me.

    I really prefer the idea of reuniting Eberle with Hall, and bringing in Kovalchuk – RH shot with a good one timer whose first instinct is to shoot. Has the size (and perhaps still the speed) to create his own space. He will of course piss us off with disinterested play at times during the regular season, but he comes to play in the playoffs. The only sticking point is the contract he wants – is he coming back to North America to win a cup or to get another payday – if its the former, then the Oilers, who are a genuine cup contender, should be able to get him signed without much fuss for 5-6 million for 2 years (same term as what’s left on Eberle’s deal).

    LT – your estimate for what Hanzal will get is way too low (bordering on wishful thinking). Frans Nielsen, who is a very comparable player to Hanzal, got 6 years x 5.25 million at age 32 from cap-crunched Detroit. Hanzal should fire his agent if he doesn’t get at least 5 x 5.

  37. Diablo says:

    LMHF#1: Ales Hemsky never had Connor McDavid feeding him passes in the low circle. He’s made for it.

    You also clearly don’t know what LMHF#1 means.

    The problem with Hemsky is that he thinks pass first, second and third. They need a RH shooter on the PP, and that has never ever ever been Hemmer’s MO.

    Look I’m not against bringing Hemmer back – depth is damn important. But he needs to take a significant haircut and sign a show-me contract (as in show me that your body is not broken after one too many times getting jackhammered by Regher). If he’s willing to sign for 1-2 million for one year, then by all means bring him back.

  38. Jethro Tull says:

    Seem to remember the same things said about Hemsky before he went as Eberle now.

  39. LMHF#1 says:

    Diablo: The problem with Hemsky is that he thinks pass first, second and third. They need a RH shooter on the PP, and that has never ever ever been Hemmer’s MO.

    Look I’m not against bringing Hemmer back – depth is damn important. But he needs to take a significant haircut and sign a show-me contract (as in show me that your body is not broken after one too many times getting jackhammered by Regher). If he’s willing to sign for 1-2 million for one year, then by all means bring him back.

    I would imagine that would be around the $ amount.

    In the right circumstances he was certainly a shooter. One of the best goals he ever scored was on a big slapper in the ’06 finals. He rarely misses from in close.

    Certainly no one is saying give him 4 mil.

  40. LMHF#1 says:

    Professor Q: Last-Minute Hemsky Fan #1?

    LoudmouthHemskyFan#1

  41. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT!

    – LT says: “Chia is willing to risk losing a deal if the payoff is a better roster” Man this is a revealing remark, and gets to the core I believe of the dichotomy of THE spirited divide on this blog.

    – If a trade (or multiple trades) results in a better roster, how can one conclude you lost the trade?
    *edit: 1 year of say Subban for 4 years of Klef, yeah you are better next year, so don’t go that route

    – Also, I’m inclined to believe Chia trades a pool-party or Nurse for a more advanced winger or D.

    – Love some of the names you have suggested LT: great ideas.

  42. who says:

    How come this blog only accepts my posts half the time. I hate typing and it is dam frustrating to type a four paragraph reply to someone and then lose the post. Am I being censored for believing Eberle is no longer a 1RW 🙂

  43. Diablo says:

    LMHF#1: I would imagine that would be around the $ amount.

    In the right circumstances he was certainly a shooter. One of the best goals he ever scored was on a big slapper in the ’06 finals. He rarely misses from in close.

    Certainly no one is saying give him 4 mil.

    Hemsky never once put up a season with over 200 shots – he’s a pass first player, who used to thrive off the right half wall on the PP, which is where McDavid sets up shop now.

    He’s not the answer, and he’s certainly not a better option than Letestu, who has a much more recent track record of actually producing on the PP.

  44. who says:

    Now that I can post again I have a few things to get off my chest.

    2 years ago Jordan Eberle was a first line right winger. This year it wasn’t even close and I don’t care what anyone’s numbers are telling them. You can’t say he played in bad luck because he hardly ever had a scoring chance. Now he may rebound and score 30 next year but there is significant risk involved in keeping him and hoping for that.
    What happens if he regresses further and you can’t even give him away next summer. Then you are in a Fayne or Poo situation with a bigger contract. Right now you can still get something for him without taking back salary. I would do the deal before he has negative value, even if the return is disappointing.
    I like your trade idea with Florida, LT, but do you think the Panthers would go for that. I don’t know much about Florida’s roster, but they would have to want to get rid of Bjugstad pretty bad to give up a good young dman and take on Fayne’s contract. If they did go for it I wouldn’t bother signing Hanzal. I would just play Bjustad at 3C and move him to the wing when Drai moves away from McDavid. Its a risk because of Bjugstad’s health but can you not put him on LTIR if his body keeps breaking down?

  45. Yak Efron says:

    Ducks getting away with blatant interference, same as it ever was.

  46. --hudson-- says:

    Getzlaf got a penalty!

  47. stush18 says:

    Bjugstad is too much risk for me LT, although I enjoy him. Good hands for a big guy.

    Do you think they would do a deal for pouliot/bjugstad? Is his injuries that substantial?

  48. Lloyd B. says:

    I reckon the above projected roster would finally let us see the balanced photo.

    Whether the names are exactly right is unknown. The positions that need an upgrade you have identified are correct.

    The great thing about your acquisitions is that they are really tinkering around the edges.

    It wasn’t that long ago the Oilers needed a vast improvement on the top 6 forwards and top 4 defensemen. And goal. Can’t forget about the goalie!

    When Chiarelli took over I believe you had 13 roster improvements that needed to happen. And not one involved signing two incredible centers to long term contracts.

    The biggest worry on the top 6 now is how we fit them under the cap.

    What a great problem for Chiarelli to have.

    We’re done waiting.

  49. McSorley33 says:

    frjohnk,

    There is risk, but I would love to overpay Hanzal.

    Shut down Getzlaf. Full stop.

    Add a RHD PP guy and we are contending

  50. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I watch and follow the Panthers closely as my wife is from Fort Lauderdale.

    Bjugstad had a decent year a few years ago where he played a feature role as the shooter on the PP.
    He struggles on face-offs and is weak along the walls.
    He does not use his big body in a menacing way.
    He has had numerous injuries in his short career.
    Knee, back surgery and concussion related migraines. Along with this years broken hand and groin issues.

    There is even talk about Florida leaving Bjugstad exposed in the expansion draft in hopes that Vegas will take him.

    For as much as Pysyk could help the Oilers, Bjugstad is a huge risk to take on for potential help.

    I’d pass on this type of deal for Eberle. Your mileage may vary.

  51. John Chambers says:

    Diablo,

    Agreed Hanzal won’t fit the budget. I also think that like Lucic his wheels will start to fall off around the midpoint of the contract.

  52. MrEd says:

    There are only 3 cap-hit contracts in the NHL over $10M.

  53. oilersfan says:

    Fun discussion point:

    If you could trade Draisaitl for Drew Doughty tomorrow , given age and contract status,

    Would you?

    Discuss

  54. Klima's_Bucket says:

    oilersfan,

    Yes.

  55. Diablo says:

    oilersfan:
    Fun discussion point:

    If you could trade Draisaitl for Drew Doughty tomorrow , given age and contract status,

    Would you?

    Discuss

    Nope – he’s going to be a UFA in 2 years – LA is a tire fire that’s about go to the down the same road as the Edmonton Oilers (and Colorado) after replacing Lombardi with a couple of former franchise icons.

    Patience – in two years Doughty will be looking to jump ship for a contender. We could get him for nothing but Katz’s money.

  56. digger50 says:

    oilersfan:
    Fun discussion point:

    If you could trade Draisaitl for Drew Doughty tomorrow , given age and contract status,

    Would you?

    Discuss

    Nope again.

    Drai is the new Getzlaf of the Pacific, he’s is that good, and going to get better.

  57. pocession charge says:

    who:
    How come this blog only accepts my posts half the time. I hate typing and it is dam frustrating to type a four paragraph reply to someone and then lose the post. Am I being censored for believing Eberle is no longer a 1RW 🙂

    Who knows?

  58. Lowetide says:

    who:
    I like your trade idea with Florida, LT, but do you think the Panthers would go for that.

    There are reasons they might make the trade. The least attractive contract is Bjugstad, by a significant margin. Fayne’s contract is far shorter, so the Panthers get something they need for a defenseman they can replace internally.

  59. digger50 says:

    I think a Florida will have to expose Pysyk or Petrovik, so I think they move one on order to protect the other. If you can move Eberle plus Fayne you have to do it.

    But I think Bjugstag doesn’t help us get faster. Combine him with the other giant, Hanzal and we are too slow.

    Similar trade: Eberle and Fayne for Hamonic and Strome. They want Ebs up front, And moving Hamonic allows them to protect De Haan so they do it. Fayne can help them. It might be imbalanced but pressure of expansion draft helps motivate. Maybe salary take back as well.

    Either trade gets us the d man we need and a center.

    Vegas takes Pouliot (I wish)
    Then sign Spencer Foo

    Finally take the 2017 first plus a promising prospect and go shopping for expabsion bubble targets. Tyler Bozak, Calle Jarnkrok, Andre Athanasiou, Anthony Mantha, Silfverburg…..etc. I would prefer younger but teams looking to rebuild may want to move vets instead.

    Out:
    Fayne 1M retained
    Eberle. 1M retained
    Pouliot
    Gain 12M cap
    First round 2017 plus (if possable)

    In:
    Hamonic
    Strome
    Foo
    Hanzal
    Cost 12M
    Silfverburg if possable.

    The only reason we could get substantially better this summer are the opportunities that may present themselves due to expansion draft.

    Enjoyed the “what if” exercise this evening.

  60. jtblack says:

    People tend to trend on the Optimistic sode for players when they argue for them. The arguement is usually “what if they….” what if Ebs scores 30. A lot of ppl projecyed him for 35+ this yr (shooting coach, McD) .. a lot of ppl had faith in Yakupov … The reality is few guys “bounce back” after 2 or 3 yrs of decline. So I like LT’s homesty when he pegs Ebs as a .50 ppg player going forward. Thats what he is, not a gunner or a sniper.

    And for a lot of players, when they bounce back it’s due to a change of scenery (coach, team, usage)… I have nothing agaisnt Ebs or Pou; i just think their usefulness under T Mac has run out.

    So if we accept that (which we don’t have to) then I would try and maximixe a return for them and also utilize the Cap by releasing them …. if possible

  61. jtblack says:

    oilersfan,

    Sure. Get LA on board and we go. We have seen stud D men move for other stud D men (Subban – Weber) or unproven D man for a guy like Drai (Jones – Johansen). Maybe Poile is more than Savvy?

  62. jtblack says:

    jtblack,
    EDIT: Stud D men for other stud D men

  63. The Duke of Hafford says:

    Would puljujarvi get the conversation going for Trouba? I am sure winnipeg would love the fins together.

  64. trencan says:

    I dont think we are in win now mode, I understand that after so many years of dissapoinment fans are impatient but this is not our year. There is still long way to go.
    I think there are so many open options of trade this summer for Oilers and Chia needs to be very cerative.
    3C – First option for me is try to sign player from KHL (Jan Kovar from Metallurg is my favourite (better than Hanzal), and I also like Tkachyov from Kazan (cheaper than Hanzal))
    There is also possibility to get 3C in trade, lets say Eberle + pick for Strome + Halak.
    Free agency – I dont like Hanzal on 4mil long term contract. Spencer Foo is big question mark for me.
    RHD – I think best for Oilers is to sign Russel on 4m x 3 years deal and develope Bear. But there is also option in trade, lets say Eberle + pick for Hamonic + Halak, Eberle + 1st round for Tanev, and I also think Chia will ask in Colorado about Barrie again. The trade with Florida as LT mentioned is also interesting option but I dont like Bjugstad deal, big risk we will have another Poulliot contract.
    Veteran – I also think this young team need some top veteran on the roster – Williams, Kovalchuk or Jagr if possible on reasonable contract.
    Of course, big task for Chia this year are old contracts -Poulliot & Fayne and new contracts – Draisaitl & Mc David. He needs to be very creative this year.

  65. treevojo says:

    Lowetide,

    Question for you Mr Lowetide?

    Can you name a team from the start of the 2016/17 season who’s roster would qualify for your balance photo?

    I would just like to know what Chiarelli is up against.

    Apologies if you have already answered this question before.

  66. LD101 says:

    Is there any chance Ethan Bear is able to step in right away?

  67. Klima's_Bucket says:

    LD101,

    I’d say his odds are not good, more like one in a million…

  68. treevojo says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    LD101,

    I’d say his odds are not good, more like one in a million…

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM

  69. dustrock says:

    LD101:
    Is there any chance Ethan Bear is able to step in right away?

    I’d say that’s pretty unlikely. Let’s see how he does in the AHL first. The step-up in speed and physicality to the bigs for d-men is hard to deal with.

  70. Professor Q says:

    treevojo:
    Lowetide,

    Question for you Mr Lowetide?

    Can you name a team from the start of the 2016/17 season who’s roster would qualify for your balance photo?

    I would just like to know what Chiarelli is up against.

    Apologies if you have already answered this question before.

    Columbus and Minnesota have to be up there. Probably Nashville as well.

  71. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Wonder if there’s any chance we could pry Kyle Palmeri from the Devils?

    What’s probably more likely is for ChiaPete to be aggressive in the LV expansion auction, where he could pry loose one of the quality defensemen who are likely to be left exposed on a loaded team like the Islanders, Wild, Ducks or Panthers.

    Islanders: De Haan/Hickey/(Hamonic?? Dare to dream…)
    Wild: Brodin/Scandella/Dumba
    Ducks: Manson/Vatanen
    Panthers: Pysyk/Petrovic

  72. GCW_69 says:

    Post expansion draft, I would probably be on the phone to Snow seeing what I would need to offer in addition to Eberle to get Hamonic and Strome.

    Strome seems to be out of favour in NY and Hamonic may be available given he is also coming off an off year.

    Strome can play 3C but has also played RW with Tavares, so could also be tried in the same spot with McDavid. That gives the Oilers all sorts of options to run the line blender as needed. Taking a shot at Strome is another Maroon type move.

    Hamonic slides into Russell’s spot on a reasonable contract.

    Then you could run:

    Maroon – McDavid – Strome

    Lucic – Leon – Slepyshev

    Drake – Nuge – JP

    Kharia – Letestu – Kassian

    Or

    Maroon – McDavid – Leon

    Lucic – Nuge – Slepyshev

    Drake – Strome – JP

    Kharia – Letestu – Kassian

    And have a solid defence with:

    Klefbom – Larsson

    Sekera – Hamonic

    Nurse – Benning

    You could also sign another RW like a Parenteau or Versteeg to add some competition for Slepyshev and JP.

  73. AT8 says:

    Lowetide,

    What are your thoughts on the possibility of signing Veteran RW Jaromir Jagr?

    I believe this will make it easier to move RW Jordan Eberle and give our RW position some real veteran help.

    Jagr is most likely looking to sign a 1 year contract.

    Via https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jaromir-jagr

    His last 3 contracts came in at a cap Hit of 3.5/3.5/4.0(Million) (2015/2016/2017)

    bonuses CONTRACT NOTE: Games Played bonuses: $300,000 at each of the following levels (10, 20, 30, 40, 45 gms) + Performance bonuses: $5,000 for each of the following achievements (Hart win, Art Ross win, Stanley Cup win)

    for 2016/2017 his performance bonuses max was $1,515,000

    he finished the season with all 82 games played with no achievement bonuses = $1,500,000 in bonuses paid

    if we can get him on a similar contract but at a cap hit of 3.5(million) with a similar bonus structure

    we replace
    HEIGHT: 5’11 (180 cm)
    WEIGHT: 181 lbs (82 kg)

    with
    HEIGHT: 6′ 3 (191 cm)
    WEIGHT: 230 lbs (104 kg)

    replace
    GP : 82
    G : 20
    A : 31
    P : 51
    +/- : +3
    PIM :16
    SOG : 208
    S% : 9.6
    GWG : 0
    PPG : 4
    PPA : 10
    SHG : 0
    SHA : 0
    HITS : 26
    BS : 37
    Shootout G : 1/3
    Turnovers Giveaways : 44
    takeaways : 38
    TOI ; 1374:57
    ATOI : 16:46
    PPTOI : 2:14
    SHTOI : 1:11

    with
    GP : 82
    G : 16
    A : 30
    P : 46
    +/- : +2
    PIM : 56
    SOG : 181
    S% : 8.8
    GWG : 2
    PPG : 8
    PPA : 5
    SHG : 0
    SHA : 0
    HITS : 21
    BS : 4
    Shootout G : 0/0
    Turnovers Giveaways : 44
    takeaways : 40
    TOI ; 1393:59
    ATOI : 16:60
    PPTOI : 2:46
    SHTOI : 1:16

    Eberle was 14th on the team in +/-
    Jagr 2nd on the team in +/-

    both were 5th in goals scored

    eberle 3rd in assists/points
    jagr 4th in assists/points if you dont count traded vanek

    with that being said Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau missed 72 games combined.

    try him on a line with Mcdavid (if they click mcdavid finds his trigger man for the year, Jagr at his age is still one of the bests at finishing in tight)
    my dream would be to roll him out with Lucic and Draisaitl (if they click that would be one of the heaviest 2nd lines in the NHL with Skill, I dont think you could put 3 better guys with puck protection on the same line)
    worst case you roll him out on the 3rd line ( he becomes your veteran pisani type mentor to young RW’s like Pitlick,JP,Slep. His work ethic and practice habits alone will be a huge benefits for our young players. and you roll him out on your PP 1 unit, hes old but he still knows how to get to open spots to score)

    ————————————————

    Lowetide – what do you think it would take to for CAR to take Eberle for Faulk?

    obviously it will be tough to get value for Eberle, but if we package Eberle with a young left d prospect we might be able to get something back.

    I would move him only for a RD in the mould of a Hamonic(NYI) or Faulk (CAR).

    with Faulk being the easier sell ( Carolina only had two 20+ Goal scorers compared to NYI 5 )

    trading for a RD instead of signing Russell would be the better bet for me

    as good as Russell is at blocking shots he had trouble getting the puck out of the zone smoothly in the playoffs, watching him get closed off in the d zone on his back hand by fore checkers was painful to watch, in no way is Russell a bad player just him being on the right side is the issue.

    giving Sekera a RD partner would be money in the bank.

    and Russel is looking for term and more $

    —————————————-

    my projections for oilers opening 2017/2018 not considering who vegas takes in expansion draft

    Maroon – McDavid – Cagguila/Slepyshev/Pitlick
    Lucic – Draisaitl – *Jagr/Pitlick
    Slepyshev/Cagguila – Nuge – *Pitlick/Jagr
    Pouliot – Letestu – Kassian

    extra F : Khaira

    Give JP a chance to battle it out with the other young wingers but let him start in Bakersfield
    one more half season in the AHL and JP should be ready

    We are most likely going to have to eat Pouliots 4 mil for at least another season (I beleive he can have a bounce back season, then try to trade him during the deadline or summer)

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – *Faulk
    Nurse – Benning

    extra D : Gryba

    Talbot
    Brossoit

    -with the way both Mcdavid and Drai are going to get paid, having them centre separate lines is the only set up we can have, having approx 17M-20M on one line in a Cap world is next to impossible to win with

    -moving both Eberle and Nuge in the same summer will be tough to do, moving a proven 20-25 goal scoring winger out East would be my choice for this summer, only if we can get a little insurance on the right side ( ie : Jagr)

    Lowetide -would Eberle, Reinhart, and a 4th round pick get us a Faulk?

    Carolina only have two listed RW – Aho and Stempniak
    only two 20+ goal scorers last season

    CAR does have some cap space – the only raise I see is Teravainen
    and they will have to move out one of Ward or Lack to make room for the newly signed Darling at 4Mil

    Slavin is their go to guy and will be up for a hefty raise after next season as he out played faulk
    ( 34 points and +23 vs faulks 37 points and -18)

    ———————————–

    Free agent RW options
    1. Radulov 30 – 2016-17 cap hit: $5,750,000
    will be looking for term

    2. Oshie 30 – 2016-17 cap hit: $4,175,000
    will be looking for term

    3. Williams 35 – 2016-17 cap hit: $3,250,000
    old but clutch

    4. Vrbata 36 – 2016-17 cap hit: $1,000,000
    expressed interest in returning to the Coyotes( most likely stays put

    5. Eaves 33 – 2016-17 cap hit: $1,000,000
    Injury prone and just shattered his personal bests in his 30s ( hasnt played close to a full season until this year 79 split between DAL and ANA)

    The only winger out of that pile I would touch is Williams but only if we can get him at 3.5 and short term. ( im pretty sure someone is going to throw him term and money and anything over 2×3.5mil i would stay away, signing anyone 35+ long term is a huge risk)

    I like Jagr because of what he brings and his willingness to sign 1 year contracts.

    having a legend to play with our young players would be a huge bonus, and even with his lack of speed I believe he brings more to the table than Eberle.

    this is in no way a hate on Eberle post but we need a better veteran to guide these young oilers. We cant make the same mistake and not surround this new core the way we failed the Hall and Ebs era.

    my closing statement is just imagine the damage a 2nd line of LUCIC – DRAISAITL – JAGR
    the size, the strength, the puck protection, the cycle game with these 3 would be next to impossible to stop.

    thanks for reading,

    AT8

  74. AT8 says:

    GCW_69:
    Post expansion draft, I would probably be on the phone to Snow seeing what I would need to offer in addition to Eberle to get Hamonic and Strome.

    Strome seems to be out of favour in NY and Hamonic may be available given he is also coming off an off year.

    Strome can play 3C but has also played RW with Tavares, so could also be tried in the same spot with McDavid. That gives the Oilers all sorts of options to run the line blender as needed. Taking a shot at Strome is another Maroon type move.

    Hamonic slides into Russell’s spot on a reasonable contract.

    Then you could run:

    Maroon – McDavid – Strome

    Lucic – Leon – Slepyshev

    Drake – Nuge – JP

    Kharia – Letestu – Kassian

    Or

    Maroon – McDavid – Leon

    Lucic – Nuge – Slepyshev

    Drake – Strome– JP

    Kharia – Letestu – Kassian

    And have a solid defence with:

    Klefbom – Larsson

    Sekera – Hamonic

    Nurse – Benning

    You could also sign another RW like a Parenteau or Versteeg to add some competition for Slepyshev and JP.

    Hamonic and Strome
    for
    Eberle and Benning + (maybe 3rd or 4th draft pick)

    might get it done

    I feel like NYI won’t value eberle as much because they had 5 20+ goal scorers last season, and strome picked up his game when they switched coaches. and they are right up against the cap

    Strome on a line with mcdavid would be fun to watch

    ————————-

    It might work depending on how much De Haan gets this summer, hes making 1.9, most likely looking to sign for 2.5/3.0 mil range, Hickey reuped for 2.2 with similar numbers as De haan.

    and If Pulock keeps up his development it would be easier for snow to move Hamonic

    it would come down to if snows willing to swap in Eberle for Strome and Hamonic for Benning/Pulock

    the money might not work, NYI moves out 6,357,143 and moves in 7,788,333
    they would be adding 1,431,190 + Pulocks potential bonus of 500,000

    with projected cap space of 2,040,357 for next season that would leave them with 609,167 in cap space

    add Beauvilliers potential bonus of 212,500 + pulocks 500,000 = 712,500 potential bonus

    If Mr Charles Wang was still the main guy up top they might do something like this.

    Oilers are in no position to retain any salary on Ebs, unless we dump Fayne and Pou.

    NYI have to re up JT, and they have a big 2018 summer with 8 UFA’s and 5 RFA’s

    Thanks for reading,

    AT8

  75. PerryK says:

    LT’s lineup.

    I would move Versteeg to 2R. He would be a good fit for RNH and Lucic.

    I would move Caggiula to 3L, and Slepyshev to 4L.

    Other than that, I like your lineup. And I really like your changes. Can’t fight city hall! Eberle and Pouliot must go! Then this solution is absolutely perfect. Chia gets the size and skill he so covets. And, I have been advocating for Pysyk since he graduated from the Oilkings. He is going to be a very valuable commodity real soon; if he isn’t one already. What I have seen him (not a lot), he looks very ready to be in this position for a very good team. Bjugstad has some excellent untapped potential as a player. It may be best suited for RW.

    Thank you for these solid thoughts LT.

  76. PerryK says:

    treevojo:
    Lowetide,

    Question for you Mr Lowetide?

    Can you name a team from the start of the 2016/17 season who’s roster would qualify for your balance photo?

    I would just like to know what Chiarelli is up against.

    Apologies if you have already answered this question before.

    He cannot! Balance is like a Unicorn; highly desired but non-existent!

  77. PerryK says:

    AT8:
    Lowetide,

    What are your thoughts on the possibility of signing Veteran RW Jaromir Jagr?

    I believe this will make it easier to move RW Jordan Eberle and give our RW position some real veteran help.

    Jagr is most likely looking to sign a 1 year contract.

    Via https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jaromir-jagr

    His last 3 contracts came in at a cap Hit of 3.5/3.5/4.0(Million) (2015/2016/2017)

    bonuses CONTRACT NOTE: Games Played bonuses: $300,000 at each of the following levels (10, 20, 30, 40, 45 gms) + Performance bonuses: $5,000 for each of the following achievements (Hart win, Art Ross win, Stanley Cup win)

    for 2016/2017 his performance bonuses max was $1,515,000

    he finished the season with all 82 games played with no achievement bonuses = $1,500,000 in bonuses paid

    if we can get him on a similar contract but at a cap hit of 3.5(million) with a similar bonus structure

    we replace
    HEIGHT: 5’11 (180 cm)
    WEIGHT: 181 lbs (82 kg)

    with
    HEIGHT: 6′ 3 (191 cm)
    WEIGHT: 230 lbs (104 kg)

    replace
    GP : 82
    G : 20
    A : 31
    P : 51
    +/- : +3
    PIM :16
    SOG : 208
    S% : 9.6
    GWG : 0
    PPG : 4
    PPA : 10
    SHG : 0
    SHA : 0
    HITS : 26
    BS : 37
    Shootout G : 1/3
    Turnovers Giveaways : 44
    takeaways : 38
    TOI ; 1374:57
    ATOI : 16:46
    PPTOI : 2:14
    SHTOI : 1:11

    with
    GP : 82
    G : 16
    A : 30
    P : 46
    +/- : +2
    PIM : 56
    SOG : 181
    S% : 8.8
    GWG : 2
    PPG : 8
    PPA : 5
    SHG : 0
    SHA : 0
    HITS : 21
    BS : 4
    Shootout G : 0/0
    Turnovers Giveaways : 44
    takeaways : 40
    TOI ; 1393:59
    ATOI : 16:60
    PPTOI : 2:46
    SHTOI : 1:16

    Eberle was 14th on the team in +/-
    Jagr 2nd on the team in +/-

    both were 5th in goals scored

    eberle 3rd in assists/points
    jagr 4th in assists/points if you dont count traded vanek

    with that being said Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau missed 72 games combined.

    try him on a line with Mcdavid (if they click mcdavid finds his trigger man for the year, Jagr at his age is still one of the bests at finishing in tight)
    my dream would be to roll him out with Lucic and Draisaitl (if they click that would be one of the heaviest 2nd lines in the NHL with Skill, I dont think you could put 3 better guys with puck protection on the same line)
    worst case you roll him out on the 3rd line ( he becomes your veteran pisani type mentor to young RW’s like Pitlick,JP,Slep. His work ethic and practice habits alone will be a huge benefits for our young players. and you roll him out on your PP 1 unit, hes old but he still knows how to get to open spots to score)

    ————————————————

    Lowetide – what do you think it would take to for CAR to take Eberle for Faulk?

    obviously it will be tough to get value for Eberle, but if we package Eberle with a young left d prospect we might be able to get something back.

    I would move him only for a RD in the mould of a Hamonic(NYI) or Faulk (CAR).

    with Faulk being the easier sell ( Carolina only had two 20+ Goal scorers compared to NYI 5 )

    trading for a RD instead of signing Russell would be the better bet for me

    as good as Russell is at blocking shots he had trouble getting the puck out of the zone smoothly in the playoffs, watching him get closed off in the d zone on his back hand by fore checkers was painful to watch, in no way is Russell a bad player just him being on the right side is the issue.

    giving Sekera a RD partner would be money in the bank.

    and Russel is looking for term and more $

    —————————————-

    my projections for oilers opening 2017/2018 not considering who vegas takes in expansion draft

    Maroon – McDavid – Cagguila/Slepyshev/Pitlick
    Lucic – Draisaitl – *Jagr/Pitlick
    Slepyshev/Cagguila – Nuge – *Pitlick/Jagr
    Pouliot – Letestu – Kassian

    extra F : Khaira

    Give JP a chance to battle it out with the other young wingers but let him start in Bakersfield
    one more half season in the AHL and JP should be ready

    We are most likely going to have to eat Pouliots 4 mil for at least another season (I beleive he can have a bounce back season, then try to trade him during the deadline or summer)

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – *Faulk
    Nurse – Benning

    extra D : Gryba

    Talbot
    Brossoit

    -with the way both Mcdavid and Drai are going to get paid, having them centre separate lines is the only set up we can have, having approx 17M-20M on one line in a Cap world is next to impossible to win with

    -moving both Eberle and Nuge in the same summer will be tough to do, moving a proven 20-25 goal scoring winger out East would be my choice for this summer, only if we can get a little insurance on the right side ( ie : Jagr)

    Lowetide -would Eberle, Reinhart, and a 4th round pick get us a Faulk?

    Carolina only have two listed RW – Aho and Stempniak
    only two 20+ goal scorers last season

    CAR does have some cap space – the only raise I see is Teravainen
    and they will have to move out one of Ward or Lack to make room for the newly signed Darling at 4Mil

    Slavin is their go to guy and will be up for a hefty raise after next season as he out played faulk
    ( 34 points and +23 vs faulks 37 points and -18)

    ———————————–

    Free agent RW options
    1. Radulov 30 – 2016-17 cap hit: $5,750,000
    will be looking for term

    2. Oshie 30 – 2016-17 cap hit: $4,175,000
    will be looking for term

    3. Williams 35 – 2016-17 cap hit: $3,250,000
    old but clutch

    4. Vrbata 36 – 2016-17 cap hit: $1,000,000expressed interest in returning to the Coyotes( most likely stays put

    5. Eaves 33 – 2016-17 cap hit: $1,000,000
    Injury prone and just shattered his personal bests in his 30s ( hasnt played close to a full season until this year 79 split between DAL and ANA)

    The only winger out of that pile I would touch is Williams but only if we can get him at 3.5 and short term. ( im pretty sure someone is going to throw him term and money and anything over 2×3.5mil i would stay away, signing anyone 35+ long term is a huge risk)

    I like Jagr because of what he brings and his willingness to sign 1 year contracts.

    having a legend to play with our young players would be a huge bonus, and even with his lack of speed I believe he brings more to the table than Eberle.

    this is in no way a hate on Eberle post but we need a better veteran to guide these young oilers. We cant make the same mistake and not surround this new core the way we failed the Hall and Ebs era.

    my closing statement is just imagine the damage a 2nd line of LUCIC – DRAISAITL – JAGR
    the size, the strength, the puck protection, the cycle game with these 3 would be next to impossible to stop.

    thanks for reading,

    AT8

    Excellent points, AT8! Well reasoned.

  78. GCW_69 says:

    AT8,

    Good analysis.

    I think Snow could try and find a way to make it work if they think it will help with Tavares. Even in a down year, Eberle was the 20th highest scoring RW in the league (see Staples latest article) so that’s first line all the way.

    I looked at Strome’s splits, and he had a good February, but was back in the shitter in March. He has had a couple or really weird seasons there, so I think his trade value is low. They also may want to make room for Barzal, so they could be motivated sellers.

    If I were the Oilers, I would be looking to use picks and prospects to close the gap between Ebs and Hamonic/Strome, and maybe even separate the deals.

    The Islanders look like they are in tough for the expansion draft. If they protect Boychuk, Leddy, Hamonic and De Hann then they can only protect 4 forwards (Tavares, Ladd, and 2 of Lee, Nelson, or Bailey).

    If they go with seven forewards, they are looking at Tavares, Ladd, Lee, Nelson, Bailey, Strome, Cizkas plus Boychuk, Leddy, Hamonic and leaving DeHann exposed. If that’s the route they are thinking, maybe Ebs and picks or a prospect like Jones for Hamonic and Strome becomes more attractive.

  79. AT8 says:

    GCW_69:
    AT8,

    Good analysis.

    I think Snow could try and find a way to make it work if they think it will help with Tavares.Even in a down year, Eberle was the 20th highest scoring RW in the league (see Staples latest article) so that’s first line all the way.

    I looked at Strome’s splits, and he had a good February, but was back in the shitter in March.He has had a couple or really weird seasons there, so I think his trade value is low.They also may want to make room for Barzal, so they could be motivated sellers.

    If I were the Oilers, I would be looking to use picks and prospects to close the gap between Ebs and Hamonic/Strome, and maybe even separate the deals.

    The Islanders look like they are in tough for the expansion draft.If they protect Boychuk, Leddy, Hamonic and De Hann then they can only protect 4 forwards (Tavares, Ladd, and 2 of Lee, Nelson, or Bailey).

    If they go with seven forewards, they are looking at Tavares, Ladd, Lee, Nelson, Bailey, Strome, Cizkas plus Boychuk, Leddy, Hamonic and leaving DeHann exposed.If that’s the route they are thinking, maybe Ebs and picks or a prospect like Jones for Hamonic and Strome becomes more attractive.

    That’s good foresight on expansion options, Vegas is definitely going to make things interesting.

    I haven’t looked too much into expansion rules, can Vegas still grab de Hann if he’s a RFA this summer?

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