THE MARKET SPEAKS

Back in the spring of 1976, the New York Rangers moved Emile Francis out of the general manager’s job and replaced him with John Ferguson. In modern terms, this is about equal to firing David Poile and replacing him with Jeremy Roenick. The move was an upgrade in terms of fame but the nuts and bolts of getting the job done are about a lot of tedious chores.

  • Ken McKenzie, The Hockey News April 1976: John Ferguson, the new general manager-coach, is far from pleased with the players he inherited from (Emile) Francis and he makes no bones about saying so. In fact, there is no love lost between Francis and Ferguson. Walt Tkaczuk is said to be almost certain to leave New York. Bill Fairbairn and Gilles Marotte are the other members of the Rangers who might move before next season rolls around.

John Ferguson didn’t like a lot about the Rangers, and he was damn sure going to fix the problem in a quick damn hurry. In May 1976, a month after the quote above, Ferguson sent young winger Rick Middleton to the Boston Bruins for famous (and aging) winger Kenny Hodge. Hodge, 31, scored 25 goals and 61 points in 1975-76, and was familiar with Phil Esposito (recently acquired by the Rangers). Middleton, 22, scored 24 goals and 50 points, while making the errors of youth. Ferguson couldn’t put up with the problem any longer, and shipped out Middleton. Hodge would have one productive season in NYC, played fewer than 20 games the following year, and be out of organized hockey by 1980. Middleton? In 1980-81, he scored 103 points, retired in 1987-88 and scored over 400 goals as a Bruin. Why did Ferguson trade Middleton, instead of Tkaczuk, Marotte or Billy Fairbairn? The market spoke and the market did not want John Ferguson’s fading role players. So, rookie general manager he was, Ferguson sent away a borderline hall of famer for a spent force. Le holy.

Photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved

I love the entire hockey calendar, but the period leading up to draft and free agency is perhaps my favorite. Maybe it has to do with hope and reparation, or maybe it’s about the weather. For the third year in a row Peter Chiarelli has a list of things to do, although the work is far less than in previous summers.

My prelude today serves as a backdrop to something I’ve been thinking about for the last 24 hours or so. Most Oilers fans are in favor of trading Jordan Eberle for a load of hay, today, but I’m thinking that is unwise. Without a proven RW (aside from Leon Draisaitl) Edmonton could enter training camp with a less than ideal depth chart. The big item is this: You have to give to get. Offering Walt Tkazcuk, Billy Fairbairn and Gilles Marotte didn’t get John Ferguson far, maybe Peter Chiarelli doesn’t get an attractive offer for Eberle. As was the case last season, we may see a more valuable player exit because the market speaks.

Click on photo for Facebook link. 

PETER CHIARELLI’S SUMMER 2017 LIST

  1. Get Connor McDavid signed to a long-term contract. ($10-13 million times 8?)
  2. Get Leon Draisaitl signed to a long-term contract. ($7-9 million times 8?)
  3. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future. (Griffin Reinhart, Jujhar Khaira, Mark Letestu)
  4. Find a way to trade Benoit Pouliot off the roster. (trade with LV or buyout)
  5. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen. (Hamonic, Franson, Kris Russell)
  6. Find a bottom 6F who can help the offense. (Cizikas, Sutter)
  7. Find a way to cover off buried contracts. (Fayne)
  8. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline.

This is a list I published earlier in the week. Several items have come to the fore since then and I wanted to update (and will tweak at the end, no peeking you). Let’s get to it.

  1. Get Connor McDavid signed to a long-term contract. The range for McDavid seems to be all over the place, with the most popular total being eight years and $97 million. That works out to $12.125 million per year, and would mean the 97+29=close to $20 million beginning in 2017-18. That’s a lot of money, but if you expect $9.7 million a year for CMD, I’m going to suggest 97 is leaving about $20 million on the table. Seems crazy to me. Further reading can be done here, as Pierre Lebrun (in November) talked about a possible lockout impacting the length of the deal (source). Perhaps the deal is for four years.
  2. Get Leon Draisaitl signed to a long-term contract. We seem to be getting some interesting guesses now, outer marker being Vladimir Tarasenko and his $7.5 times eight years ($60 million total). I am still hoping something around $7M per year gets it done.
  3. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future. I generally believe the Oilers are not exposed too much in this expansion draft, but do confess to worrying a little about losing Jujhar Khaira. Most of the time valuing a mid-level prospect highly is a mistake, but I think Khaira is a plug-and-play for 4L and way less expensive (<$1M) than Matt Hendricks. May not be able to PK for a couple of years, but I like his skill set.
  4. Find a way to trade Benoit Pouliot off the roster. I have been trying to figure a way to shoehorn Nuge, Eberle and Russell onto next year’s roster, and Pouliot is a key player here. They could do it by sending down  Puljujarvi until his cap bonuses burn off, and trading Benoit Pouliot. If they bought out Pouliot, sent Mark Fayne down it might work (JP’s bonus might trip them up).
  5. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen. It comes down to Russell if the organization likes him and I think they do. I’ll have a 23-man roster at the bottom and Russell at $4M could work in a tight fit. If that doesn’t get it done, I think the anson is Franson.
  6. Find a bottom 6F who can help the offense. I listed Casey Cizikas last time, people asked how the Oilers could get him. Jordan Eberle? The one player who might be available via free agency, who could help the offense, is Sam Gagner. Price point would be the issue and the Jackets used him as 4F and PP1. That’s the Letestu role. What about Ryan Strome?
  7. Find a way to cover off buried contracts. I don’t know that it will be possible. I’m also uncertain about the reported overage from last season due to bonuses.
  8. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline. This will be the greatest challenge for Peter Chiarelli this summer. Seriously.

PROJECTING THE SUMMER

Allow me to project some of Edmonton’s summer, and then post the roster that could come out of it.

  • Oilers lose Benoit Pouliot in the expansion draft to the LV Golden Knights. Edmonton sends Caleb Jones to the Golden Knights as a sweetener after the draft.
  • Oilers sign Cody Franson to a one-year, $3.5 million contract.
  • Oilers sign Jordan Oesterle to a value contract (one-way deal).
  • Oilers bury Mark Fayne’s contract.

PROJECTED 2017-18 ROSTER

  • This is not my ideal roster, this is a roster put together in order to prove the Oilers can keep Nuge and Eberle while addressing RHD and needs at forward.
  • Cody Franson has been mentioned many times on this blog and elsewhere. Although he isn’t everyone’s ideal, his underlying numbers are good and he can help the Oilers in areas of need. Kris Russell is also an option, but I don’t think he will stay in Edmonton’s cap model.
  • I have listed eligible players with all of their bonuses (McDavid, Puljujarvi, Nurse, Caggiula), so Peter Chiarelli could get more room by (as a for instance) sending down Puljujarvi until the bonus worry on his contract has subsided.

This is not what I would do. I’ll have that for you at 5pm today. That said, I do think there are elements in this roster that probably make sense for Peter Chiarelli. One thing I wrote here that I do not believe will happen: Franson. I think PC is probably trying to figure a way to get Kris Russell on this roster and make room for it by moving a bigger contract than Pouliot. One thing to remember: Oilers will need room at the deadline for added firepower. This is a season when Chiarelli will load up if Edmonton is in position. More at 5.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning, lots of chat and that of course includes the Oilers. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Oilers run falls short but what a year!
  • Trevor Wear, Halfway to Halloween Mayhem. The man who took an iconic photo of Leon Draisaitl drops in to talk about how you can help the Stollery and have a blast.
  • Jared Book, Habs Eyes on the Prize and Bluebird Banter. How do Habs fans feel about Subban? Are the Jays for real? (no).
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Did the Oilers earn enough respect to get more calls next spring?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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178 Responses to "THE MARKET SPEAKS"

  1. HiddenDarts says:

    Great post, LT. Completely with you on the “be patient”-move with Eberle.

    This was a good, edging on great player – once. Unless the return is incredible, let’s look at the fact that none of our RWs has ever scored 20. Eberle, meanwhile, can score 20; 30 if he’s on fire.

    Either way, he’s gotta know his game has to change. This is his chance for rebirth. Will he take it?

  2. Cahoon says:

    Great post as always here LT. I have a feeling McDavid takes a discount so the team isn’t hamstrung by it.

    Now that we are out of the playoffs, how long until Spencer Foo signs? 😀

  3. DBO says:

    Gotta say over the last decade of darkness I have always enjoyed these posts. And this year it being delayed by a month make sit that much sweeter.

    I think Griffin has to clear waivers this coming season, so no way he isn’t on the roster. If I am wrong, then great.

    I hate to say it, and have been saying it for more then a month, but just like losing Hall when we wanted it to be Ebs, I expect we lose Nuge. And Faulk from Carolina seems to be the type of player I could live with (though not love). Nuge has the 50 pt two way centre, mentor kids makeup we will need, especially if we are breaking in young cheap players.

    The real issue in next summer. So I would hope that Chia makes a real run at the cup next season. McDavid’s value deal means 2017-18 is our first real cup run. Spend to the cap. add vets, not kids. Make deadline deals that move youth to fill holes. Deal with the money and the consequences next summer. It is so hard to make real runs, and in a cap world next year may be our best window at the Cup.

  4. Woogie63 says:

    At the end of the expansion draft, McPhee is going to wonder where the goals and entertainment is going to come from. He is going to have 30 assets to reset his team. I am sure that McPhee is going to be calling teams with with a proven goal score that might be out of favour to look for a trade.

    McPhee might have a Jack Johnson, Petrovic (Pysyk), Johns and a Grabner to make a trade to get an Eberle.

  5. dustrock says:

    I agree that this playoff run has made me question what I’d do this summer as Chiarelli.

    1 goal away from the Conference Finals with a less than perfect roster.

    You only have the McDavid ELC for one more year. Is it possible to add a decent RHD, AND still keep Eberle and RNH?

    Do you trade Nurse this offseason because you’ll always have McDavid, but you’ll never again have McDavid for $1million?

  6. dustrock says:

    Regarding expansion, I’d rather be losing someone like Khaira than, say, the Islanders. It looks to me like they are going to have a tough decision to make.

    Is De Haan going to be exposed? Bailey?

  7. Jaxon says:

    Exciting times.

    I’m not an Eberle or Pouliot hater (quite the opposite), but I think the writing is on the wall. I think they’ll keep Nuge. Would this trade scenario be possible?

    The speedy, feisty, Edmonton-born RW, Brendan Gallgher, would be a great fit in Edmonton. He had the 2nd highest shots/60 for wingers in the NHL last season at 12.05. Gallagher had a bit of an off season just like Eberle. They’re not going to get much for Eberle after this season, but he is a better scorer than Gallagher. I would suggest Eberle (2 x $6M) + Pouliot (2 x $4M), which is 2 more years at $10M going out for Plekanec (1 x $6M) + Gallagher (4 x $3.75M), which is $9.75M coming in for 1 year and then 3.75 for 3 more years. So the money works out short term and is a great deal for Edmonton moving forward as long as Gallagher bounces back. Plus it gives Edmonton a decent option (Plekanec) for 3C for next season. I’d maybe throw in a Reinhart and a 3rd round pick for a Dalton Thrower and a 5th round pick coming back.

    Eberle (6.000Mx2) – – – – – – – Gallagher (3.750Mx4)
    Pouliot (4.000Mx2) – – – – – – Plekanec (6.000Mx1)
    Reinhart (0.863Mx0)RFA – Thrower (0.646Mx0)RFA
    3rd Round in 2017 – – – – – – 5th Round in 2017
    CAP 10.863M out – – – – – – – CAP 10.396M in

    Then Plekanec’s salary comes off the books just in time for McDavid’s big contract.

    Thoughts?

  8. godot10 says:

    Cody Franson is a significant step down from Russell. But 1-year for Franson is much less risk than 4 x $4 million for Russell. Matt Benning would be 2nd pairing by the end of training camp.

    Franson, like Fayne, is too slow for McLellan’s systems, so I don’t think that he will be the guy either.

  9. BlueNoteNorth says:

    Playoff observations and subsequent Chiarelli action items:
    1. Draisaitl needs to centre a line. Who is his 1RW replacement?
    2. McDavid needs more elite wingers than Maroon and Caggiula. Are they available in-house or do they need to be acquired?
    3. Five D are set – Klefbom, Larsson, Sekera, Benning, Nurse. Who are the other two?
    4. Improvement in face-offs is needed. Is Draisaitl at 2C enough or is a new 3C also needed?
    5. Where does Nugent-Hopkins play? 3C? 2RW? Another team?
    6. What to do with playoff under performers – Eberle, Pouliot

  10. Jaxon says:

    Here’s my roster/depth chart with that trade:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/297583

    Sign Foo and Franson, draft one of right shot LW Popugayev (most likely available at 22), RHD Conor Timmins (possibly available at 22), or left shot RW Vesalainen (most likely gone at 22). Also draft RHD Johnny Kovachevic in the later rounds.

  11. godot10 says:

    Cahoon:
    Great post as always here LT. I have a feeling McDavid takes a discount so the team isn’t hamstrung by it.

    $12.5 million IS a discount! -).

  12. pocession charge says:

    Great post LT!

    Was your story intended to parallel the Oilers current roster predicament with John Ferguson’s? is Jordan Eberle the Rick Middleton of that story? I understand what you are saying but circumstances are much different today because of the salary cap. And Chiarelli is not a rookie GM. I would be shocked to see Eberle back in the fall. Rightly or wrongly, he played himself off the team during the playoff run. When you consider his play along with future cap constraints, Eberle is a prime candidate to be traded. I would much rather the Oilers keep RNH.

  13. godot10 says:

    BlueNoteNorth:
    Playoff observations and subsequent Chiarelli action items:
    1. Draisaitl needs to centre a line. Who is his 1RW replacement?
    2. McDavid needs more elite wingers than Maroon and Caggiula. Are they available in-house or do they need to be acquired?
    3. Five D are set – Klefbom, Larsson, Sekera, Benning, Nurse. Who are the other two?
    4. Improvement in face-offs is needed. Is Draisaitl at 2C enough or is a new 3C also needed?
    5. Where does Nugent-Hopkins play? 3C? 2RW? Another team?
    6. What to do with playoff under performers – Eberle, Pouliot

    McDavid is never going to have elite wingers on a team that is also paying Draisaitl, and has “married” Milan Lucic. One more expensive forward only. Lucic will have to do for Draisaitl, and one other expensive guy for McDavid (eventually Puljujarvi probably). The other wingers for McDavid and Draisaitl have to be “Sheary’s”.

  14. Ducey says:

    Chia likely has to trade Eberle next summer, not this summer due to McDavid’s pending contract.

    He went 82 20 31 51. That was 21st in points among RW. That’s a first line RW.

    Eberle was third among full time forwards on the Oilers in CF% at 51.8%. So the puck was going the right way.

    Among full time Oilers players:

    He was 4th in even strength points and 5 x 5 points/60.
    He was second on the team in 5 x 5 shots/60
    He was third on the team in 5 x 5 shots (and a career high)

    The problem was his shooting percentage. While Maroon led the team in shooting percentage at 16.90 %, Eberle had a career low 8.97%. His previous seasons he was generally around 11.5 to 13%.(Career 13.4%)

    If his shots had dropped, you could have a concern, but I think a bounceback is likely.

    If he had a shooting % of 12% next year, he would be 82 25 31 56

  15. godot10 says:

    Jaxon:
    Here’s my roster/depth chart with that trade:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/297583

    Sign Foo and Franson, draft one of left shot RW Popugayev (most likely available at 22), RHD Conor Timmins (possibly available at 22), or right shot LW Vesalainen (most likely gone at 22). Also draft RHD Johnny Kovachevic in the later rounds.

    Draft centres and defensemen. Not wingers.

  16. pocession charge says:

    Some of the numbers being thrown out there for CMD’s next contract are a bit far-fetched. He still has four RFA years so that should provide some financial buffer. Also, look at the comparables: Crosby, Malkin, Kane are nowhere close to $12.5+M and they signed for mostly UFA years. Let’s not get crazy here.

  17. BlueNoteNorth says:

    godot10,

    Agree. My point was “more elite than …” which still sets the bar fairly low.

  18. StixMalone says:

    godot10: Draft centres and defensemen.Not wingers.

    Make sure they all shoot right…

  19. LMHF#1 says:

    LT – when you do your ideal roster – it’s going to be in the context of winning a Stanley Cup, right?

    It should be. The idea of sitting back for another year – not attempting completeness and balance etc – would be a big mistake and there’s no good reason for it.

  20. anjinsan says:

    LT, I luv ya, but ya’ll is not a shrewd business man.

  21. jake70 says:

    LT, what do you think of trying to bring Hemsky back for a 2nd tour of duty on right at a decent price? Will be 34 in August. Just finished his 3 year deal in Dallas, 4M per year. And he shoots Right. Or has that ship sailed?

    From online site Blackout Dallas (Tom Dorsa writer):

    ***Ales Hemsky can’t generate shooting chances as well as Sharp can, but as far as bottom-six finishers go, he’s one of the best in the NHL. Despite playing just 15 games this year, the Czech forward scored three goals and four assists, good for a 0.46 points per game rating. At that pace, Hemsky would have tallied 21 goals and 16 assists oved 82 games…………Hemsky is a tad younger (than Sharp who the article also talks about), but given his past injury timeline, the Dallas Stars might be the only team to give him a shot. He could, and if all falls into play well, be signed to a Jiri Hudler-esque one-year, $2-million contract.***

  22. Oilin4 says:

    I like Kris Russell, but you can’t acquire Larsson at a large cost in part because “the lefty righty thing on defense is a thing” (Chiarelli quote) and then make an aging Lefty your longterm solution at 2RD. To be clear, I like Larsson and agree with the trade. My point is doing both these things is hypocrisy and poor logic.

    If only Ethan Bear were two years further along.

  23. Yeti says:

    Ducey: The problem was his shooting percentage. While Maroon led the team in shooting percentage at 16.90 %, Eberle had a career low 8.97%. His previous seasons he was generally around 11.5 to 13%.(Career 13.4%)
    If his shots had dropped, you could have a concern, but I think a bounceback is likely.

    This is the crux of the issue: did Eberle have simply a bad year (luck) or has something changed in his game (speed? legacy of injury) that is directly affecting those underlying numbers? If the former, then holding on to him is the right thing to do. Hell, play him on the top line. But if it’s the latter, it might be best to trade him now before his new normal is established.

  24. Durag says:

    jake70,

    I don’t think Hemsky is interested in playing for a team where he can’t wear #83.

  25. Oilin4 says:

    Ducey:
    Chia likely has to trade Eberle next summer, not this summer due to McDavid’s pending contract.

    He went 82 20 31 51. That was 21st in points among RW. That’s a first line RW.

    Eberle was third among full time forwards on the Oilers in CF% at 51.8%. So the puck was going the right way.

    Among full time Oilers players:

    He was 4th in even strength points and 5 x 5 points/60.
    He was second on the team in 5 x 5 shots/60
    He was third on the team in 5 x 5 shots (and a career high)

    The problem was his shooting percentage. While Maroon led the team in shooting percentage at 16.90 %, Eberle had a career low 8.97%. His previous seasons he was generally around 11.5 to 13%.(Career 13.4%)

    If his shots had dropped, you could have a concern, but I think a bounceback is likely.

    If he had a shooting % of 12% next year, he would be 82 25 31 56

    Also his primary linemates had abyssmal shooting %, so his assists likely go up too. Likely 25 38 63 (ish) going by historical averages. This is after he got demoted to 2nd PP unit too. Those are great numbers.

    Don’t sell low. Shop Eberle. If you get a return (solid 2RHD), trade him. Otherwise, hang on. You won’t replace him.

  26. Professor Q says:

    pocession charge:
    Some of the numbers being thrown out there for CMD’s next contract are a bit far-fetched.He still has four RFA years so that should provide some financial buffer.Also, look at the comparables:Crosby, Malkin, Kane are nowhere close to $12.5+M and they signed for mostly UFA years.Let’s not get crazy here.

    Well, Kane and Toews are close at $10.5 AAV (and the highest). But hopefully McDavid realises how that’s cap-strapped Chicago and goes for $9.7 AAV?

  27. Professor Q says:

    Durag:
    jake70,

    I don’t think Hemsky is interested in playing for a team where he can’t wear #83.

    I’m sure the sophomore would make way for the Classic Oilers veteran returning.

  28. slopitch says:

    Pass on Franson. Here’s what I’d do.

    1) Eberle + Reinhart for Duchene – Colorado is crazy and needs dmen. We might lose Reinhart to LV. Oilers need a C who can win faceoffs. Duchene with Nuge sounds fun. Gives them 4C and lets Drai play with 97 from time to time.
    2) Buy out Fayne – need the cap space.
    3) Resign Russell for 2 years – he allows us to build a d solution internally.
    4) Trade Pouliut for anything – need the cap space. Benson to LV if they take Pouliot?
    5) Sign a vet who wants to win a cup on a 1 year deal (not Iggy, he’s too slow).
    6) Use the 2017 on bpa.
    7) Save the 2018 1st for buying at the deadline.

    Not something Id do because I dont know how to make it work under the cap, but I think Chairelli is gonna target either Brian Boyle or Martin Hanzal. The Oilers were not able to close out leads vs ANA and could use some additions to help there.

  29. jtblack says:

    I can’t wait for the 5 O’clock roster … The only way Pouliot and / or Eberle are still Oilers by mid summer if there is absolutely NO market for them. There has to be a market for Eberle; I like the idea the one person had, maybe a Vegas trade after both drafts are complete?

    Ryan Strome would be great 3C … Right handed, young, good cap number now and future should be good ….

    I think when fans evaluate a player, they almost always go for the optimistic side … Eberle has value. But he also has numbers (5×5 scoring, box cars, etc) that are all trending the wrong way. The same was true for yakupov. Same is true for RNH and Pouliot. All players have up and down years, but after a player has 2, 3 or 4 years trending down, is it realistic to HOPE for a return to glory. The League has many more Cody Hodgson’s & Jonathon Cheechoo’s than it does Marian Hossa’s …

    Lucic had a poor year 5×5. This is concerning but at this point it is 1 year. Now if it happens next year, that will be very concerning. Ebs, RNH & Pouliot have already been on the year over year decline for 2 – 4 years. They still have value but I think it’s unreasonable to assume RNH will be a 60 point, 2 way center. or Eberle will consistently score 30 Goals going forward.

    I think Moving on from players trending down is fine by me. I know it’s not the preference to sell “Low” but it’s better than keeping complete dead weight and then selling for nothing or buying out.

  30. JDI says:

    Lowetide Retweeted
    Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun 15m15 minutes ago

    Ben Bishop contract details: $7 M, $6.5 M, $5.5 M, $3.5 M, $3.5 M, $3.5 M; and NMC throughout, modified NTC last 3 years

    Bishop to cheque.

  31. leadfarmer says:

    slopitch:
    Pass on Franson. Here’s what I’d do.

    1) Eberle + Reinhart for Duchene – Colorado is crazy and needs dmen. We might lose Reinhart to LV. Oilers need a C who can win faceoffs. Duchene with Nuge sounds fun. Gives them 4C and lets Drai play with 97 from time to time.
    2) Buy out Fayne – need the cap space.
    3) Resign Russell for 2 years – he allows us to build a d solution internally.
    4) Trade Pouliut for anything – need the cap space. Benson to LV if they take Pouliot?
    5) Sign a vet who wants to win a cup on a 1 year deal (not Iggy, he’s too slow).
    6) Use the 2017 on bpa.
    7) Save the 2018 1st for buying at the deadline.

    Not something Id do because I dont know how to make it work under the cap, but I think Chairelli is gonna target either Brian Boyle or Martin Hanzal. The Oilers were not able to close out leads vs ANA and could use some additions to help there.

    Make sure you have a big pile of incriminating photos of Sakic before you attempt the first.

  32. JDI says:

    leadfarmer: Make sure you have a big pile of incriminating photos of Sakic before you attempt the first.

    Compelt like the wind!

  33. judgedrude says:

    LT, for the 5pm post, are there different levels between what you would do to the roster compared to what PC could do so that Lowetidians could see the famed balance photo. Or are they one in the same?

  34. leadfarmer says:

    JDI:
    Lowetide Retweeted
    Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun 15m15 minutes ago


    Ben Bishop contract details: $7 M, $6.5 M, $5.5 M, $3.5 M, $3.5 M, $3.5 M; and NMC throughout, modified NTC last 3 years

    Bishop to cheque.

    Hope he can play defense.

  35. JDI says:

    leadfarmer: Hope he can play defense.

    Chances of this working out for Dallas: Nill.

  36. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jtblack,

    – Great post LT!

    – I too am looking forward to his 5:00: these moves too timid. Chia will do more work than this

    – Russell: what’s good about him is that next year team can be:
    1) Sek-Russ (for the toughs)
    2) Nurse – Russ (when the take training wheels off Benning, and give him-top4 chances)
    3) Russ-Benning (when they take training wheels off Nurse, and give him top-4 chances)

    – So unless Chia can get a plug and play for Sek, this is a reasonable way to stat the season on D, IMO. Not many D who could/would play this role, and they like him. Not the worst outcome

    How good though would this be next year:

    Klef-Larsson
    Sek-Harmonic
    Nurse-Benning
    Griff-Gryba (Fayne)

    – I think Chia would “lose more trades” for this D

  37. Dicky94 says:

    I think the Oilers have to trade Eberle now. The fans have soured on him now and If he were to go 10 games at the start of next season with no goals, he would be ran out of town. I really like Ebs but I think it’s time to move on. Still would love to see Marcus Foligno in an Oiler uniform. Ebs for Foligno and a 2nd?

  38. N64 says:

    Cahoon: Now that we are out of the playoffs, how long until Spencer Foo signs?

    The reporting is that he is holding his fire until after free agency. Teams could move up and down his list if moves affect his opportunities. That could also be a negotiating ploy for guarantees but fewer players in the way is the best guarantee

  39. slopitch says:

    leadfarmer: Make sure you have a big pile of incriminating photos of Sakic before you attempt the first.

    Haha. Its hard to speculate. If Duchene wants out its our only hope. He only had 41 points last year so they may be down on that. Other then that, yes, its what Id do. Takes 2 to tango unfortunately! Ha

  40. JDI says:

    N64: Teams could move up and down his list if moves affect his opportunities

    Stay tuned for the next episode of Spencer for Hire.

  41. pocession charge says:

    slopitch: Haha. Its hard to speculate. If Duchene wants out its our only hope. He only had 41 points last year so they may be down on that. Other then that, yes, its what Id do. Takes 2 to tango unfortunately! Ha

    I think what they meant to say was, “If you want Duchene, you will need to offer more than Ebs and Rhinoplasty”. Colorado would want more.

  42. Bruce McCurdy says:

    At this moment, the Stars’ goaltending budget for next year is $15.3 MM.

    Not a Belfour or even a Turco anywhere in sight.

    Hahahahahaha

  43. pocession charge says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    At this moment, the Stars’ goaltending budget for next year is $15.3 MM.

    Not a Belfour or even a Turco anywhere in sight.

    Hahahahahaha

    I’m sure they aren’t concerned. Didn’t you know that Vegas is taking every other team’s bad contracts?

  44. Durag says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    At this moment, the Stars’ goaltending budget for next year is $15.3 MM.

    Not a Belfour or even a Turco anywhere in sight.

    Hahahahahaha

    How beautiful does Cam Talbot’s contract look right now?

  45. jtblack says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Yah, I really think he might be able to do something with NYI … They need help now to show Tavares they are serious. So if we can get Strome & Hamonic for Eberle & Benson??? or something ….

    There is more to hockey than box cars. Ebs and Pouliot completely failed the box car Test, but they also failed the eye test. Just poor hockey from a physical standpoint, execution standpoint and details standpoint. At least RNH passed the eye test somewhat … he certainly got an F on the box car test. Also, considering the level of competition the last few games, there is no excuse for any of them …

  46. Stud Muffin says:

    What’s the bonus overage on the cap next year because of Leon?

    Also I’ll go with 6.8 for Leon and 9.5-10.5 for Connor, anything over that is just plain crazy. No one on there second contract has ever got over 10m, usually don’t come close to that either.

  47. Ducey says:

    jake70:
    LT, what do you think of trying to bring Hemsky back for a 2ndtour of duty on right at a decent price? Will be 34 in August.Just finished his 3 year deal in Dallas, 4M per year.And he shoots Right.Or has that ship sailed?

    From online site Blackout Dallas (Tom Dorsa writer):

    ***Ales Hemsky can’t generate shooting chances as well as Sharp can, but as far as bottom-six finishers go, he’s one of the best in the NHL. Despite playing just 15 games this year, the Czech forward scored three goals and four assists, good for a 0.46 points per game rating. At that pace, Hemsky would have tallied 21 goals and 16 assists oved 82 games…………Hemsky is a tad younger (than Sharp who the article also talks about), but given his past injury timeline, the Dallas Stars might be the only team to give him a shot. He could, and if all falls into play well, be signed to a Jiri Hudler-esque one-year, $2-million contract.***

    Its a little questionable to extrapolate from 15 games. Especially when he had a pretty high shooting percentage for him (13%, he is usually at 10) and the projection relies a lot on goals.

    I don’t think he would be a fit. He is not an Eberle replacement (he is maybe a 35 pt player if healthy). You want to keep Slepy and Kassian. So its Hemsky or JP. They can’t afford/ fit both.

    I think I go with JP. By playoff time next year, I think he is likely to be a more impactful player than Hemsky.

  48. anonymous says:

    I doubt the upcoming CBA effects current contract negotiations. Especially to shorten their length. This is Lebrun trying to start the “Mcdavid to Toronto” hype train. Connor would have to field questions the moment and every interview after he signs a 4 year deal. I think I’d quit the internet.

  49. Professor Q says:

    JDI:
    Lowetide Retweeted
    Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun 15m15 minutes ago


    Ben Bishop contract details: $7 M, $6.5 M, $5.5 M, $3.5 M, $3.5 M, $3.5 M; and NMC throughout, modified NTC last 3 years

    Bishop to cheque.

    Well played, sir. Let’s hope their Gambit plays off, except against Edmonton.

  50. stush18 says:

    Professor Q: Well, Kane and Toews are close at $10.5 AAV (and the highest). But hopefully McDavid realises how that’s cap-strapped Chicago and goes for $9.7 AAV?

    Honestly, I keep hoping Connor signs for 9.7 x 8 yrs. It works perfectly, and he can sign his big payday when he turns 29 like Kane and Toews and Stamkos have.

  51. misfit says:

    Mark Fayne costs $3.625M on the roster, $2.675M to sit in the minors, and $1.292M to buy him out (which also comes with a $1.17M cap penalty the following year).

    So how badly do we need the $1.3M for this season, and is it worth taking a million away next year (the McDavid extension year)?

    It’s clear we won’t play him, so if we can’t trade him, I’d just bite the bullet and keep him in the minors again.

    I don’t like the idea of moving Eberle this offseason, but I think it’s ultimately what we can expect. The reason for this is two fold. One, if the thinking is that JP will be his ultimate replacement anyway, why not give him a year on the team to see if he can show that he might be capable rather than giving him the job and finding out after the fact? The second is the return you’ll get for a $6M player coming off his worst season that could very well be a one-off.

    Chiarelli didn’t concern himself with the value of his asset when he traded Yakupov (as opposed to giving him a year with McDavid and possibly improving his value), so I doubt he’ll be worried about that here. If he decides he doesn’t want Eberle, Eberle is gone. Simple as that.

  52. classict says:

    jtblack:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Yah, I really think he might be able to do something with NYI … They need help now to show Tavares they are serious. So if we can get Strome & Hamonic for Eberle & Benson??? or something ….

    There is more to hockey than box cars.Ebs and Pouliot completely failed the box car Test, but they also failed the eye test. Just poor hockey from a physical standpoint, execution standpoint and details standpoint. At least RNH passed the eye test somewhat … he certainly got an F on the box car test.Also, considering the level of competition the last few games, there is no excuse for any of them…

    How did our 3rd and 5th leading scorers fail the boxcar test? On a team that was top 10 in the league in GF

    And RNH doing it without any McDavid time…Box cars per cap hit maybe

  53. Woogie63 says:

    Dicky94:
    I think the Oilers have to trade Eberle now. The fans have soured on him now and If he were to go 10 games at the start of next season with no goals, he would be ran out of town. I really like Ebs but I think it’s time to move on. Still would love to see Marcus Foligno in an Oiler uniform. Ebs for Foligno and a 2nd?

    Before the fans “run another player town” let admit;

    The “fans” have a really bad track record.

    Let’s proceed with our heads and not our emotions.

  54. Professor Q says:

    pocession charge: I’m sure they aren’t concerned.Didn’t you know that Vegas is taking every other team’s bad contracts?

    They do need to reach a certain cap threshold, and at the high cost contracts that they’re signing Russians and Overagers with they might be interested in some.

    Minus wheeling and dealing.

  55. stush18 says:

    Jaxon:
    Here’s my roster/depth chart with that trade:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/297583

    Sign Foo and Franson, draft one of left shot RW Popugayev (most likely available at 22), RHD Conor Timmins (possibly available at 22), or right shot LW Vesalainen (most likely gone at 22). Also draft RHD Johnny Kovachevic in the later rounds.

    You have popugaev and veselainen backwards. They are opposite hands of what you said

  56. Jethro Tull says:

    misfit,

    With the growth of analytics, tire pumping doesn’t work anymore. You got 50pts playing with the best player in the world? Awesome! Here’s an established NHL d man and a 1st rounder.

    By this logic, what’s Maroon worth?

  57. Jethro Tull says:

    stush18: You have popugaev and veselainen backwards. They are opposite hands of what you said

    I wish we could ask WG’s phone…

  58. stush18 says:

    Ducey:
    Chia likely has to trade Eberle next summer, not this summer due to McDavid’s pending contract.

    He went 82 20 31 51. That was 21st in points among RW. That’s a first line RW.

    Eberle was third among full time forwards on the Oilers in CF% at 51.8%. So the puck was going the right way.

    Among full time Oilers players:

    He was 4th in even strength points and 5 x 5 points/60.
    He was second on the team in 5 x 5 shots/60
    He was third on the team in 5 x 5 shots (and a career high)

    The problem was his shooting percentage. While Maroon led the team in shooting percentage at 16.90 %, Eberle had a career low 8.97%. His previous seasons he was generally around 11.5 to 13%.(Career 13.4%)

    If his shots had dropped, you could have a concern, but I think a bounceback is likely.

    If he had a shooting % of 12% next year, he would be 82 25 31 56

    I think his shooting percentage drop is prolly from being moved off of the number one PP, but I’m just speculating. But I agree, I think ebs will bounce back next year. Slot him with mcdavid and caguilla.

  59. jtblack says:

    classict,

    Yah, I think Cap Hit has to factor into every player … Expectations are different for a $6 Mil player than a $2 Mil player … fair or not …

    I think both had sub par regular seasons (box cars) and horrendous playoff box cars … What is probably more concerning to me is that bot have seen consistent year over year declines now .. When they only had to play one way, they could put up some numbers(but the team would win 25 games), but when they have to play some D they cannot generate O near a rate that would be expected for $6 Mil cap hits ..

  60. jtblack says:

    Woogie63,

    If we go with our head, are we going off year over year production? overall impact on the team? I think LT posted Eberle’s numbers in every facet have dropped in the last 4 yrs (5×5 scoring, 5×4 scoring, goals, pts, etc) … If that is not correct, I apologize in advance … but if it is correct, would trading a declining asset be running that player out of town, or simply trying to improve the roster to the point where it can win a Cup …

  61. Chachi says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    At this moment, the Stars’ goaltending budget for next year is $15.3 MM.

    Not a Belfour or even a Turco anywhere in sight.

    Hahahahahaha

    I think Jim Nill is going to be fired before Bishop gets to the modified NTC part of that contract.

  62. linkfromhyrule says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    At this moment, the Stars’ goaltending budget for next year is $15.3 MM.

    Not a Belfour or even a Turco anywhere in sight.

    Hahahahahaha

    So basically, Nill has totally misidentified the problem. His goalies can’t make a save because his defense is awful, but he believes it’s the goalies fault. Now he has close to 1/4 of the cap tied up in 3 aging goalies, and his defense is still awful. Yikes

  63. Bruce McCurdy says:

    pocession charge: I think what they meant to say was, “If you want Duchene, you will need to offer more than Ebs and Rhinoplasty”.Colorado would want more.

    Here’s what I have trouble reconciling.

    Eberle 20-31-51, +3 is such a disappointment that Oilers should leave him unprotected or retain half of his salary to get rid of him (according to some).

    Duchene 18-23-41, -34 (!!) is so damn valuable that teams should be willing to trade several major assets to acquire him, then highjack a fleet of Brinks trucks in order to pay him.

    Both are 26, with >500 GP on their resume. Eberle has averaged 0.33 G/G & 0.75 P/G, Duchene 0.30 and 0.73. Both are minus players for their careers, Duchene slightly worse.

    I wonder do Avs fans want to ride Duchene out of town on a rail? What is it that makes him so desirable and Eberle a boat anchor? Why is there the assumption that it was just an off-year for Duchene but Eberle is in permanent decline?

    (Thankfully) I didn’t watch enough of Duchene’s games to get a real good read on him, but the ones I did see he wasn’t very good. Definitely more part of the problem than of the solution.

  64. Jaxon says:

    stush18: You have popugaev and veselainen backwards. They are opposite hands of what you said

    Oops, correct. Thanks for catching that. EDITED.

  65. Ducey says:

    stush18: I think his shooting percentage drop is prolly from being moved off of the number one PP, but I’m just speculating. But I agree, I think ebs will bounce back next year. Slot him with mcdavid and caguilla.

    The shooting % I cited was 5 x 5. Nothing to do with the PP.

  66. trencan says:

    I think we should also look in Europe for some type of players. KHL offered some interesting players (and big stars in KHL) last years – Panarin, Zaitsev, Radulov, next year there will be probably – Dadonov, Shipachov, Kovalchuk… I believe we can find some interisting options – Jan Kovar (Metallurg ) -TOP9, Vladimir Tkachyov (Kazan) – button 6, 3C…. Give them one year deal – try&buy. I also think there should be some top quality veteran winger next year on the roster – Williams, Jagr, Kovalchuk….

  67. Melman says:

    The thing with Eberle to bear in mind is that 4 of his 20 goals came in the last 2 games against a Vancouver AHL roster that had checked out weeks before. During the playoffs IMO it’s fair to say that:

    1) RNH played a very solid 2-way game against very good opposing centres, but was snakebit for goals. He kills penalties and plays on the PP. Let’s also agree that it’s likely he should be penciled in for 15-20 goals/yr and that 20+ is unlikely. He has value

    2) Poo had a train wreck of a year. However, the team’s PK was much better after he returned in Feb. and was very solid in the playoffs. He had a couple looks but didn’t cash and didn’t get any PP time. 18 SOG, at $4M he is expensive

    3) Eberle in the playoffs was too slow to get open, too small to fight through to the front of the net, doesn’t kill penalties managed 2 assists, but was never really dangerous. I don’t think you can say he was snakebit the way RNH was. 22 SOG, at $6M he is expensive.

    The point of it all though is to win the Stanley Cup and for my money I think Poo for all his offensive shortcomings helps to that end more than Eberle does come playoff time. TMac must of thought the same way as it was Caggiula who moved up when Leon went to C. Eberle’s extra 10ish goals during the regular season over his replacement can be made up elsewhere by committee and I’ll take the $2M in cap savings.

  68. VOR says:

    I am going to take another shot at battling the mythology that has built up that Eberle, Pouliot, and RNH played badly in the playoffs. They were 1 through 3 in nearly all possession metrics on the team. They were the only forwards on the Oilers to manage more shot attempts for than against. They did that against better than average competition. In other words they outplayed. However they had terrible PDOs, 910 for Ebs, 938 for RNH, 939 for Pouliot. Both their on ice SH% and on ice SV% were horrible.

    In other words they played as well or better than their teammates but had much worse luck. Draisaital for example had a 1079 PDO. However, his Fenwick% for the playoffs was 13th on the team. He gave up considerably more than he created but great goal tending bailed him out.

    All I am trying to say, is math remains our best defense against the biases of our eyes. Our eyes like results, math likes process. I know this is hard to conceptualize but players control inputs (process) but not the outputs (results). If none of these guys had ever had good outcomes in the past I would be right with those of you who want them gone. However, they have had past success and their seems no reason to think they wont have success in the future. Given they are clearly still creating more offence than they give up at some point the puck will start going in for them.

    Given we don’t need the cap room this coming year I would be very tempted to keep them all and play them as the 3rd line and play them on special teams as needed. Certainly they wouldn’t be a conventional modern third line but a good comparable might be the Risebrough line on the Canadiens of the 70s and 80s.

  69. Thinker says:

    Funnily enough, if you take Crosby’s 8.7 in 2012 as a percentage, that works out to 9.7 in todays dollars. If you base it off Crosby’s first contract, you are looking at 11 million. Connor has a lot of endorsements, which may reduce his desire for big money. Not sure, but I think the range is 9.7-11. Paying above that would be unlikely since the highest NHL cap hit is 10.5.

    The thing with McDavid is that despite buying RFA years, he isn’t old enough that back-loading the contract makes sense from his perspective, so his cap hit will be much closer to his actual dollars paid. I could see a bridge deal ala crosby so that the second contract can be back-loaded to get the cost down. Only problem there is the 8 years that was imposed. Which means after a 5 year bridge, you would only be looking at a 34 yo connor in his final year of that third contract.

  70. pocession charge says:

    trencan:
    I think we should also look in Europe for some type of players. KHL offered some interesting players (and big stars in KHL) last years – Panarin, Zaitsev, Radulov, next year there will be probably – Dadonov, Shipachov, Kovalchuk…I believe we can find some interisting options – Jan Kovar (Metallurg ) -TOP9,Vladimir Tkachyov (Kazan) – button 6, 3C…. Give them one year deal – try&buy. I also think there should be some top quality veteran winger next year on the roster – Williams, Jagr, Kovalchuk….

    I think you are on to something here, especially Shipachyov. Pouliot and a 7th to VGK should get it done.

  71. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Melman,

    – Pitlick was trending to score more than 20 goals this year, as an example.

    – I’m not saying be all-in Pitlick, but he “might” be part of the solution.

    – MacT of course, would proclaim Ptlick the next 25-goal scorer.

    – Chia will build redundancies: Sleppy/Pitlick/Pool-party/Kass/New guy get’s ‘er done on RW

  72. Thinker says:

    I don’t really want to lose one of the young guys, but I would like to see a top 6 RW to lighten Eberle’s load (under this scenario), and push Slepyshev down. I would also like a LW/C or RW/C like Daniel Winnick to hold down a 3LW role so that moving Drai becomes possible, and so we have another piece to play with Nuge on a shutdown line.

    I’m also wary about Penciling Maroon in as a top line player again. He has a very abnormal career path to say the least.

  73. misfit says:

    Jethro Tull:
    misfit,

    With the growth of analytics, tire pumping doesn’t work anymore. You got 50pts playing with the best player in the world? Awesome! Here’s an established NHL d man and a 1st rounder.

    By this logic, what’s Maroon worth?

    Well, Maroon is probably worth a whole hell of a lot more than Martin Gernat and a 4th (with $500K retained) today.

    And it’s not about getting huge return, it’s about not getting the worst possible return. If Eberle puts up another 25G, 60P season next year, you aren’t trading a “soft 50 point player with a $6M cap hit who produced nothing in the playoffs” and getting the kind of return that player would command. Instead, you’re trading a player with 7 years of good to great production out of 8, and this season becomes a blip on the radar rather than the story of the player.

    Another reason why I’d rather trade Eberle next offseason is that that’s the one where McDavid’s extension comes into play. If we move Eberle this year, we’ll be more likely to replace him with another high priced player somewhere on the roster. A high priced player that will no doubt be under contract next year as well, forcing us to move salary elsewhere (in addition to Eberle this year).

  74. pocession charge says:

    VOR,

    VOR, you are a very bright guy but you’re alone on an island on this one. The math and eyes are crossed when it comes to Ebs’ playoff run. His possession stats do not adequately represent his level of play. He may have been unlucky but he didn’t do anything to help his cause. His HDSC was awful and, defensively, he stood out for all the wrong reasons.

  75. Dominoiler says:

    So when do the oilers address their horrid faceoff performance and add another RHC so that Letestu isnt out for half of them?

    FO% is a thing and by this metric the Oilers got embarrassed by the Ducks.

    If we are gunning for balance then this needs to be addressed.. I like Nuge, I wear a Nuge jersey, but unless they can get a strong RHC and play him on a wing then I dont see how they can continue to live with his short comings (if checking C continues to be his role) at that price point..

    We are gunning for balance, right?!..

  76. jtblack says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Wow. That’s how perspective can skew things … But here is the similiarity. The Avs are trying to move on from Duchene. The Oilers are trying to move on from Eberle. Both clubs seem unhappy with each player …

    I do agree that it’s funny how the ask seems to be soooooo different for each player … I also don’t think the Avs will get anywhere near their ask …

  77. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Here’s what I have trouble reconciling.

    Eberle 20-31-51, +3 is such a disappointment that Oilers should leave him unprotected or retain half of his salary to get rid of him (according to some).

    Duchene 18-23-41, -34 (!!) is so damn valuable that teams should be willing to trade several major assets to acquire him, then highjack a fleet of Brinks trucks in order to pay him.

    Both are 26, with >500 GP on their resume. Eberle has averaged 0.33 G/G & 0.75 P/G, Duchene 0.30 and 0.73. Both are minus players for their careers, Duchene slightly worse.

    I wonder do Avs fans want to ride Duchene out of town on a rail? What is it that makes him so desirable and Eberle a boat anchor? Why is there the assumption that it was just an off-year for Duchene but Eberle is in permanent decline?

    (Thankfully) I didn’t watch enough of Duchene’s games to get a real good read on him, but the ones I did see he wasn’t very good. Definitely more part of the problem than of the solution.

    MacKinnon is the goal now, though. He’s giving Yakupov-esque “disappointed with the team” vibe and both parties might want him out.

  78. pocession charge says:

    Dominoiler:
    So when do the oilers address their horrid faceoff performance and add another RHC so that Letestu isnt out for half of them?

    FO% is a thing and by this metric the Oilers got embarrassed by the Ducks.

    If we are gunning for balance then this needs to be addressed.. I like Nuge, I wear a Nuge jersey, but unless they can get a strong RHC and play him on a wing then I dont see how they can continue to live with his short comings (if checking C continues to be his role) at that price point..

    We are gunning for balance, right?!..

    Overrated by fans and media alike, getting a player for his face off ability is not a good idea. I don’t want a Vermette or Smithson. There is no correlation between face off percentage and winning. The current centers can work on their ability in the off season to placate this narrative.

  79. Bank Shot says:

    VOR:
    I am going to take another shot at battling the mythology that has built up that Eberle, Pouliot, and RNH played badly in the playoffs. They were 1 through 3 in nearly all possession metrics on the team. They were the only forwards on the Oilers to manage more shot attempts for than against. They did that against better than average competition. In other words they outplayed. However they had terrible PDOs, 910 for Ebs, 938 for RNH, 939 for Pouliot. Both their on ice SH% and on ice SV% were horrible.

    In other words they played as well or better than their teammates but had much worse luck. Draisaital for example had a 1079 PDO. However, his Fenwick% for the playoffs was 13th on the team. He gave up considerably more than he created but great goal tending bailed him out.

    In the last 3-4 games they played against Anaheim’s 3rd line and still couldn’t make anything happen.

    I think they sacrificed all of their offense to try to play a mature game. You can talk about bad luck but Draisaitl had what? 3-4 breakaways?

    Did the combo of Eberle/RNH/Pouliot have one breakaway between the three of them?
    They maybe had a handful of two on ones through 13 games.
    RNH had a couple of dangerous looking tips. I’ll give him that.

    How many rebound opportunities did they get? I remember a lot of one and done chances. I don’t think you can chalk up the lack of offence through the playoffs to purely bad luck. There is definitely more to it then that.

  80. Professor Q says:

    trencan:
    I think we should also look in Europe for some type of players. KHL offered some interesting players (and big stars in KHL) last years – Panarin, Zaitsev, Radulov, next year there will be probably – Dadonov, Shipachov, Kovalchuk…I believe we can find some interisting options – Jan Kovar (Metallurg ) -TOP9,Vladimir Tkachyov (Kazan) – button 6, 3C…. Give them one year deal – try&buy. I also think there should be some top quality veteran winger next year on the roster – Williams, Jagr, Kovalchuk….

    Would Dadonov be a $4.5-5.5 contract?

    Or was that only because it was a desperate Inaugural Team signing? Meaning a promising club like Edmonton could get a cheaper contract done?

  81. pocession charge says:

    Professor Q: MacKinnon is the goal now, though. He’s giving Yakupov-esque “disappointed with the team” vibe and both parties might want him out.

    Big difference between MacKinnon and Yakupov. Mac is not going anywhere.

  82. Melman says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Good reminder as it’s easy to forget about Pilick. It would be silly to expect him to score at the rate he did this year, but counting on him for 10 over the season is reasonable. I also think The Drake gets more than 7 goals next season

  83. Professor Q says:

    pocession charge: Big difference between MacKinnon and Yakupov. Mac is not going anywhere.

    Yes, definitely a big difference. But I mean either his statement of feeling refreshed for finally playing on a winning team (Canada) inspires his teammates to work harder and improve, or it irks them/depresses them further.

  84. Woogie63 says:

    jtblack:
    Woogie63,

    If we go with our head, are we going off year over year production? overall impact on the team? I think LT posted Eberle’s numbers in every facet have dropped in the last 4 yrs (5×5 scoring, 5×4 scoring, goals, pts, etc) … If that is not correct, I apologize in advance … but if it is correct, would trading a declining asset be running that player out of town, or simply trying to improve the roster to the point where it can win a Cup …

    To debate

    The last four years have little to do with next year.

    A couple of days ago, I saw good post (I forget who) that showed Eberle’s number decline was largely explained by playing PP2 vs. PP1.

    20 goal scorers are hard to find. 20 goal scorers that contribute to making Edmonton better and want to be in Edmonton are very nice intangibles.

    Not sure Eberle is in the addition by subtraction category of players.

  85. Melman says:

    VOR,

    I’ll take Dr. Drai’s results over his process any day

  86. LostBoy says:

    I don’t fully understand the general run of commentary on Eberle. Yes, his playoff performance was grim, and fits with a narrative of his game disappearing when the intensity and pace picks up in the postseason. I don’t know if it’s that or he just slumped or whatever. No question he basically never threatened.

    But most people who write articles seem to pay default lip service to a mediocre regular season as well, with the evidence mostly just straight boxcars. On its own merits, that evidence is nonsense. Taking what nhl.com considers RW, Eberle’s production this season was tied for 20th in the league in points, tied for 24th in goals, and 17th in assists.

    That is, first line NHL production with 2nd line and 2nd unit PP minutes.

    You can say you can’t pay $6m for that, but you also can’t produce top ten boxcars playing 2nd line minutes (and, natch, when Eberle was playing 1st line minutes in years past, he mostly produced top ten RW boxcars).

    I’m not saying everything is fine, keep him, carry on. But the narrative that his regular season was subpar in points production by league wide standards is just wrong. He got 16.46 in average icetime this year. His last three decent seasons (2012-2015) he was getting 18.59 to 19.19.

    51 points just simply prorated to his former icetime is 61 points.

    Just sayin’.

  87. --hudson-- says:

    misfit:
    Mark Fayne costs $3.625M on the roster, $2.675M to sit in the minors, and $1.292M to buy him out (which also comes with a $1.17M cap penalty the following year).

    So how badly do we need the $1.3M for this season, and is it worth taking a million away next year (the McDavid extension year)?

    It’s clear we won’t play him, so if we can’t trade him, I’d just bite the bullet and keep him in the minors again.

    One other option with both Fayne and Pouliot is to retain salary. If the Oilers were to retain 50% with Fayne and trade him to NJ or a team like that, it’s less cash than doing a buyout with no impact to the salary cap 2 years from now.

    To another team, Fayne/Pouliot are pretty good players for less than $2M. I hope Chia considers this – much preferable to me compared to trading away a sweetener like Caleb Jones to get cap relief.

  88. Thinker says:

    pocession charge: Overrated by fans and media alike, getting a player for his face off ability is not a good idea.I don’t want a Vermette or Smithson.There is no correlation between face off percentage and winning.The current centers can work on their ability in the off season to placate this narrative.

    Adding in the fact that the Ducks cheat on face-offs and don’t get called for it. They just get repeated warnings. Vermette’s OL esque dive into the opposition should be illegal.

  89. Melman says:

    Woogie63,

    Maybe it is if you can shave a couple million off your cap

  90. Dominoiler says:

    pocession charge,

    Overrated.. ok.. but seems to me that you are ignoring the countless times letestu would take a critical O-zone faceoff w one of the top lines because the oilers had no one else on their “strong side” (or a semi-decent FO%).. so T-Mc was wrong and you’re obviously smarter..

    This may not be the teams #1 priority, but I disagree that it isnt a point of contention for a team steering towards balance..

  91. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    Math:
    RNH 13 GP: 0 G 4 A
    Ebs 13 GP: 0 G 2 A
    Pou 13 GP: 0 G 0 A

    all 3 players have declined in production year over year the last 3 years. What has their PDO been for the last 3 years ? (I don’t know this) .. If a player spends lots of time in the O zone but continually fires off shots from the half wall, they are not going to have a good PDO …??

    These 3 players all have VALUE … the big debate is what is that value and given all of their cap hits, are they worth it?

    The other concerning item for me is that Ebs and Pou are cleary not in favor by Tmac. We know Tmac is not going anywhere, so I don’t think Ebs or Pou will flourish … we all know that if the coach does not like a player or propertly utitilize that player, it’s very tough for that player to contribute ..

  92. Dominoiler says:

    pocession charge,

    I think there is room between vermette / smithson and a RHC that could contribute to offence.. not an easy find, its been a weakness for years, but no where in my comment did I limit the target to a 4th line role player that cant contribute..

    Plus RW depth is weak, so a RHC playing RW would scratch two items off the list..

  93. rickithebear says:

    jake70: Despite playing just 15 games this year, the Czech forward scored three goals and four assists, good for a 0.46 points per game rating

    Hemsky:
    09-10
    22gm 7G 15A 22P +7
    60gm of Storitini

    10-11
    47gm 14G 28A 42P +3
    35 gm of Reddox/Storitini

    11/12
    69gm 10G 26A 36P -13
    13gm Omark

    12-13
    38gm 9G 11A 20P -6
    10gm van de velde

    13-14
    55gm 9G 17A 26P -13
    Bu Buy!
    One of the picks Mact arranged the talbottrade with!
    The other Petry 2nd.

  94. Bag of Pucks says:

    LostBoy:
    I don’t fully understand the general run of commentary on Eberle.Yes, his playoff performance was grim, and fits with a narrative of his game disappearing when the intensity and pace picks up in the postseason.I don’t know if it’s that or he just slumped or whatever.No question he basically never threatened.

    But most people who write articles seem to pay default lip service to a mediocre regular season as well, with the evidence mostly just straight boxcars.On its own merits, that evidence is nonsense.Taking what nhl.com considers RW, Eberle’s production this season was tied for 20th in the league in points, tied for 24th in goals, and 17th in assists.

    That is, first line NHL production with 2nd line and 2nd unit PP minutes.

    You can say you can’t pay $6m for that, but you also can’t produce top ten boxcars playing 2nd line minutes (and, natch, when Eberle was playing 1st line minutes in years past, he mostly produced top ten RW boxcars).

    I’m not saying everything is fine, keep him, carry on.But the narrative that his regular season was subpar in points production by league wide standards is just wrong.He got 16.46 in average icetime this year.His last three decent seasons (2012-2015) he was getting 18.59 to 19.19.

    51 points just simply prorated to his former icetime is 61 points.

    Just sayin’.

    I think the reason the narrative exists is because if you look at his boxcars with a little more nuance, you realize that he slumped through a meaningful chunk of the season, and largely salvaged his season with a late run against mainly bottom feeders and once the playoff position had been pretty much solidified.

    The old narrative on Eberle was he does the hardest thing there is to do: score goals.

    I think that narrative is coming under fire, because if the player doesn’t do that hardest thing when it truly matters (i.e. against the toughest teams and in the most meaningful games), how truly valuable is it?

    It’s a little like that offensive player who feasts on second assists or consistently pots the last goal in a 5-2 victory.

    Chiarelli is not building this team for regular success alone, so if a player doesn’t demonstrate the ability to post crooked numbers in the postseason, I think it’s only natural to assume the player in question is going to land on the GM’s radar, particularly when the cap hit is large.

    Most importantly, I bet if you were to ask Eberle himself, he would describe his season as disappointing despite what the boxcars may say.

  95. jtblack says:

    jtblack,

    I wanted to add. I think RNH should stay … Ebs and Pou depends on what is returned, what we can get with the cap space etc …

    not easy decisions … all have Value …

  96. Thinker says:

    PC: “Hey George, Graham is looking ok, we were thinking of offering him an ELC”
    GM: “Oh, that’s good to hear”
    PC: “So you are taking Benoit Pouliot, hey?”
    GM: “What, no…”
    PC: “Well, maybe a team will pick him up as a depth ECHL player some day.”

  97. Ducey says:

    pocession charge:
    VOR,

    VOR, you are a very bright guy but you’re alone on an island on this one.The math and eyes are crossed when it comes to Ebs’ playoff run.His possession stats do not adequately represent his level of play.He may have been unlucky but he didn’t do anything to help his cause. His HDSC was awful and, defensively, he stood out for all the wrong reasons.

    I am on VOR’s island too.

    Its pretty dangerous to take anything away from boxcars or saw him good in 13 games. Good or bad.

    Especially for guys playing in their first playoffs.

  98. leadfarmer says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    At this moment, the Stars’ goaltending budget for next year is $15.3 MM.

    Not a Belfour or even a Turco anywhere in sight.

    Hahahahahaha

    Their solution to their goals against problem is throwing in a guy who has a GSAA of 10 points less than their starter last year. I dont see any way this could backfire

  99. Professor Q says:

    “It’s tough when you’re not getting space. A guy like me needs time to get the puck through the middle with speed” -McDavid

    Obviously! And perhaps a slight dig at the refs and NHL?

  100. Side says:

    Jethro Tull:
    misfit,

    With the growth of analytics, tire pumping doesn’t work anymore. You got 50pts playing with the best player in the world? Awesome! Here’s an established NHL d man and a 1st rounder.

    By this logic, what’s Maroon worth?

    Remember when Maroon was practically given to Edmonton for free, probably because Anaheim thought Maroon couldn’t play in the NHL even with skilled players?

    There’s no doubt that Maroon’s worth has increased tremendously because he has proven he can play and even play with the best.

    So, pumping tires works, imo. Analytics would probably agree with this situation, too.

  101. PDO says:

    The NHLPA has used the escalator every year no?

    If they do again, it’s not that hard to sign Draisatl (8 years 7.25?) Kassian (2 x 2?) and Franson (1 x 3?) while keeping Fayne in the minors and not trading 67 or 14.

  102. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    “It’s a little like that offensive player who feasts on second assists or consistently pots the last goal in a 5-2 victory.”

    Ebs last 30 Games he has 6 Goals …Now for all the Analytics ppl, let’s dig a bit deeper to get more of the story ..
    Now if you look at when he shows up on the score sheet it may give us a better indication of why he’s dissapeared (again) ….

    Ebs had 4 Goals in the last 2 games of the season against Vancouver’s AHL team; and his other 2 were against the Avalanche (apparently they were bad this year). here’s his goal output against opponent.

    CAL – 4; COL – 4; VAN – 4; PITT – 2; BUF – 1; DET – 1; NSH – 1; PHI – 1; CAR – 1; FLA – 1.

    So since November 11th (that was a while ago), he has scored 3 Goals against playoff teams ..

    Then you can see from other posts, that he has some other stats that seem to suggest he’s doing the right things ?? Numbers can tell many stories .. then we have to figure out which ones matter .

    He gets traded and goes J Schultz on us … or does he go N. Yakupov???? nobody knows ..

  103. misfit says:

    –hudson–: One other option with both Fayne and Pouliot is to retain salary.If the Oilers were to retain 50% with Fayne and trade him to NJ or a team like that, it’s less cash than doing a buyout with no impact to the salary cap 2 years from now.

    To another team, Fayne/Pouliot are pretty good players for less than $2M.I hope Chia considers this – much preferable to me compared to trading away a sweetener like Caleb Jones to get cap relief.

    You’re right. I definitely forgot to mention retained salary trades. I think this would be a great move in Fayne’s case, and a good one in Pouliot’s. I could see someone taking a discounted Pouliot, but I think we’re probably out of luck on Fayne. He’s been out of the league for a year, and teams don’t usually trade for guys in his situation whether you or I think he’s still useful or not. I think he’ll be bought out and probably get a camp invite somewhere ala Gryba this year.

  104. Ducey says:

    jtblack:
    VOR,

    Math:
    RNH 13 GP: 0 G 4 A
    Ebs 13 GP: 0 G 2 A
    Pou 13 GP: 0 G 0 A

    Ales Hemsky went 6 0 0 0 in his first NHL playoffs. He went 24 6 11 17 in his next playoffs.

  105. pocession charge says:

    Thinker: Adding in the fact that the Ducks cheat on face-offs and don’t get called for it. They just get repeated warnings.Vermette’s OL esque dive into the opposition should be illegal.

    Yeah I agree that he pushes the legal limit with his technique but then the opposition center needs to scramble the draw by tying up Vermette’s stick (ignoring the puck) and having the wingers get the puck.

  106. misfit says:

    Side: Remember when Maroon was practically given to Edmonton for free, probably because Anaheim thought Maroon couldn’t play in the NHL even with skilled players?

    There’s no doubt that Maroon’s worth has increased tremendously because he has proven he can play and even play with the best.

    So, pumping tires works, imo. Analytics would probably agree with this situation, too.

    Analytics also would’ve shown that Maroon was a pretty good player to begin with, yet he was still traded to Edmonton for peanuts. Maybe not from the season he was traded, but the ones leading up showed a pretty good player.

    So not every team uses analytics, or at least not the same way we might. And GMs still make moves based on reputation deserved or not.

  107. --hudson-- says:

    misfit: You’re right.I definitely forgot to mention retained salary trades.I think this would be a great move in Fayne’s case, and a good one in Pouliot’s.I could see someone taking a discounted Pouliot, but I think we’re probably out of luck on Fayne.He’s been out of the league for a year, and teams don’t usually trade for guys in his situation whether you or I think he’s still useful or not.I think he’ll be bought out and probably get a camp invite somewhere ala Gryba this year.

    Yep agreed on Fayne – he’s likely a PTO type at this point. For trade the only teams I could see being interested are NJ (his old team), Toronto (his old GM and needing a Polak replacement/7D), or San Jose (his old coach, but they’re set on D, pending expansion draft). A management team who is unfamiliar is unlikely to take a chance.

    Great to see Chia has lots of options though as you and LT outlined nicely.

  108. jtblack says:

    Ducey,

    That certainly could happen … nobody knows, and that’s the challenge … trying to properly project going forward ..

    I like all of the guys under fire … I wish they would have had better playoffs … Oilers still might be playing if they could have cashed a few …

    Pouliot is older and probably on the downside
    Eberle is at an interesting age … Depending on what info you like, Eberle’s production will prob conintue to slip ..
    RNH is young and I think he can still contribute to a Cup Wining Team …

  109. CrazyCoach says:

    Hey LT,

    When are people going to stop with the Kovalchuk talk? He wold definitely be the Ken Hodge out of your story.

    Speaking of which, I saw John Feguson on Don Cherry’s “Grapeline” many years ago. His take on the Ken Hodge for Rick Middleton was quite humorous.

    DC: So tell me about the Rick Middleton deal.

    JF: Well, I had Phil Esposito and he kept telling me, “Fergie you get me Kenny Hodge and I’ll get back to fifty. It was a trade I didn’t want to make but I needed some veteran leadership.

    DC: Veteran leadership?! Veteran leadership all right. (Laughs). I heard it was over some other stuff to.

    JF: It did Grapes. We were in Vancouver playing the Canucks and I had a sportsmans banquet out in the Fraser Valley and I was the guest speaker. Anyway, I got in to the hotel about 2 in the morning.

    DC: Oh the liar, he (Middleton) told me it was 11PM.

    JF: So I get on the elevator and it starts going down into the parking lot. I’m mad, cause I want to get to my room and get to sleep. The doors open, and it’s Ricky, and he tries to slide in without me seeing. I said, “Geez, what are you a ghost?”

    DC: Early game time the next day?

    JF: Yeah. I said to him, “We got a 1PM start time, and all he says to me is, Yeah couldn’t sleep”

    DC: What did you do the next day?

    JF: Put him right in the starting lineup and we lost.

    DC: Traded him soon after?

    JF: No. Played the rest of the season. Played well, but I still had Phil in my ear about Hodgie.

    DC: SO you took the bait. *Laughs*

    JF: Took the bait. So I traded Ricky MIddleton, up and coming player, for Ken Hodge, who was winding down his career…

    DC :WInding down, Winding DOWN?!

    JF: Ok, the watch had stopped. Make this horrible trade and I knew I was in trouble when Hodgie gave the Ranger fans, one of these! (Makes “Up Yours” Motion)

    I think I have that tape somewhere. I should dig it out.

  110. LostBoy says:

    Bag of Pucks: I think the reason the narrative exists is because if you look at his boxcars with a little more nuance, you realize that he slumped through a meaningful chunk of the season, and largely salvaged his season with a late run against mainly bottom feeders and once the playoff position had been pretty much solidified.

    You can call that “nuance” if you want. Most people would call it cherry picking. Almost every player slumps and has hot streaks. You ignore anyone’s best games, duh, they don’t look as good.

    But I’ll play along: take away all three games down the stretch where he beat up on bottom feeders, against COL, VAN, and VAN, and did most of his late damage (7 points), and pretend he did nothing in them.

    And he’s STILL tied for 30th in RW boxcars, either borderline first line or highest end second line production.

  111. jtblack says:

    PC has brought in Maroon, Lucic, Cagguila, Letestu, Kassian, Sekera, Larsson, Benning & Talbot …

    PC inherited the worst D core and bottom 6 in the League. He was handcuffed by poor contracts and still is … He signed Lucic and is stuck with him. That’s on PC.

    But almost all the players being debated this off season were signed by the previous regime(s). PC inherited their contracts: Fayne, Ference, NIkitan, Pouliot, Eberle, RNH. He’s trying to build a cup winner and started out by being handcuffed severely with over priced, under performing assets. His ability to find some low cost NHL players is amazing to me (Maroon, Benning, Cagg, Kass, Talbot).

    The big deals past and if there are big deals made this year, they will be debated for a long time, perhaps with never a clear cut winner, perhaps with PC losing the deals, who knows … But what he has done underneath the BIG Ticket names is excellent. The Oilers have a deeper team than they have had in the last 11 years. They have better prospects starting to be put in place in the minors and they just finished their best year in 11 yrs … As LT would say. Good Arrows.

  112. jtblack says:

    LostBoy,

    He definitely has Value … question is, is it $6 Million value? Does he deliver that value against bigger, stronger, tight checking teams? He might .. 30th is 30th. He is still one of the top scoring wingers in the NHL, even with his downward trend … he’s got some holes in his game for sure ..

    that’s why he’s so polarizing …

    Again, the bigger issue may not be the player when looking to the future ..it’s that his coach does not like him and does not deploy him where he can have the most success … and if that won’t change, neither will Ebs numbers …

  113. Kepler62 says:

    I LIKE IT!

    One thought: Is Calgary going to sign Stone?

  114. LostBoy says:

    jtblack,

    No argument. Like I said in my original comment, my specific point is not that he’s necessarily worth $6m for what he brings, but that there is a serious mismatch between how his production this regular season is being described in articles and reality. For example, in Brownlee’s post today at ON, he asks “Might Eberle bounce back, become more productive and again be a guy who can get you 25-30 goals?” But Eberle actually delivered far above average production this regular season for his role and icetime. Whether it’s the right kind of production (not the “nuanced” kind, I guess) and whether it’s worth $6m, dunno.

  115. godot10 says:

    pocession charge:
    VOR,

    VOR, you are a very bright guy but you’re alone on an island on this one.The math and eyes are crossed when it comes to Ebs’ playoff run.His possession stats do not adequately represent his level of play.He may have been unlucky but he didn’t do anything to help his cause. His HDSC was awful and, defensively, he stood out for all the wrong reasons.

    VOR is not alone on the island.

  116. russ99 says:

    The trade Nurse and trade Eberle/RNH sentiment is not the same

    We don’t know what Nurse will be yet. But we pretty much do know what Eberle and RNH are and are not.

    Favoritism and hockey ideals aside, it sure seems like it will be harder to replace a flawed 30 goal scorer at less than $6M than it will be to replace a 45-50 point third line center with little physicality, face off acumen or cycle game.

  117. Diablo says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Here’s what I have trouble reconciling.

    Eberle 20-31-51, +3 is such a disappointment that Oilers should leave him unprotected or retain half of his salary to get rid of him (according to some).

    Duchene 18-23-41, -34 (!!) is so damn valuable that teams should be willing to trade several major assets to acquire him, then highjack a fleet of Brinks trucks in order to pay him.

    Both are 26, with >500 GP on their resume. Eberle has averaged 0.33 G/G & 0.75 P/G, Duchene 0.30 and 0.73. Both are minus players for their careers, Duchene slightly worse.

    I wonder do Avs fans want to ride Duchene out of town on a rail? What is it that makes him so desirable and Eberle a boat anchor? Why is there the assumption that it was just an off-year for Duchene but Eberle is in permanent decline?

    (Thankfully) I didn’t watch enough of Duchene’s games to get a real good read on him, but the ones I did see he wasn’t very good. Definitely more part of the problem than of the solution.

    Your argument is very astute – but I think the difference is in the way the two GMs operate.

    Do you recall the article on SN that came just after the trade deadline? – I believe it was Gare Joyce who penned it. In it he describes in very convincing detail how, almost to a man, NHL GMs are terrified of making big trades – How will the trade be perceived by the media and wannabe GMs on Twitter?

    That’s Joe Sakic (along with most of the guys who play fantasy hockey). So he tells everyone far and wide that he will only accept a deal for Duchene if it’s overwhelmingly in his favour, and everyone will sing his praises lauding him for his masterful trade that totally validates why he should be an NHL GM in the first place. He needs a win so badly, that I am going to (not so) boldly predict that Duchene goes absolutely nowhere this summer.

    Chia is the opposite – he’s not afraid to trade a big piece and he doesn’t give a damn about what anyone thinks of his work. On top of that he is the most ultra-secretive GM I’ve seen – he reveals absolutely nothing to the media – in that vacuum you get a lot of misinformation and wild half-baked theories from the so-called ‘experts’ and the wannabe experts.

    What I can see is that his Oilers look a lot like his Bruins (without Chara obviously). Starts with good goaltending, a solid D core, speed/skill up the middle and size/aggression on the wings. Within that framework, Eberle sticks out as piece that does not fit – which would be fine, except that the playoffs exposed him as a player who can’t produce enough to overcome those short-coming (lack of size AND speed), when time and space become scarce.

    pocession charge:
    VOR,

    VOR, you are a very bright guy but you’re alone on an island on this one.The math and eyes are crossed when it comes to Ebs’ playoff run.His possession stats do not adequately represent his level of play.He may have been unlucky but he didn’t do anything to help his cause. His HDSC was awful and, defensively, he stood out for all the wrong reasons.

    Completely agree – this is the crux of the problem. Possession stats do not tell the whole story – when examining the value of a high event player like Eberle – HDSC is a much better metric. Added to the fact that his offensive came against the dregs of the league – he simply makes too much to be a soft-opposition killer.

    I’ve seen a lot a people advocate not trading him due to his value being at an ‘all-time low’ – I think that’s a fallacy. The way other GMs perceive him right now will not change 6 months from now – he’s a smaller player with great hands, whose boots and shot are not quite good enough to overcome his lack of size. BUT – if you wait till December (as I’ve seen proposed) what will change is the cap flexibility that other GMs have – even if a GM wanted to trade for Eberle, they wouldn’t be able to then, unless we eat some salary or take back another player with a bad contract – which is what we would all like to avoid.

    If you’ve decided that his cap space is the issue, then the time to trade him is this summer.

    Woogie63:
    At the end of the expansion draft, McPhee is going to wonder where the goals and entertainment is going to come from.He is going to have 30 assets to reset his team.I am sure that McPhee is going to be calling teams with with a proven goal score that might be out of favour to look for a trade.

    McPhee might have a Jack Johnson, Petrovic (Pysyk), Johns and a Grabner to make a trade to get an Eberle.

    This is precisely why you don’t expose Eberle – because McPhee will give you some decent and cheap assets in exchange for him. I’m sure the Rangers, Sens and Ducks would all love to move Nash, Ryan and Perry – but those guys have NMCs, and they’re not going to a guaranteed bottom-feeder. Kovalcuk is not leaving Russia to play for LV either. McPhee does not strike me as stupid man, so I doubt he picks up the tab for a broken down Gaborik, The market for McPhee to acquire a bonafide NHL goal-scorers is next to non-existant aside from Eberle.

  118. --hudson-- says:

    Ducey: I am on VOR’s island too.

    Its pretty dangerous to take anything away from boxcars or saw him good in 13 games. Good or bad.

    Especially for guys playing in their first playoffs.

    I’m on VOR island as well. Clearly Ebs had poor production and stretches of poor play this past season. Part of that is explained by the poor chemistry shown with Lucic and Pouliot’s strange season.

    What are Chia’s options for RW assuming the optimal deployment is Drai at 2C and RNH at 3C?
    Eberle, Slepyshev, Kassian, Pitlick, Puljujarvi
    – or –
    Longterm UFA like Oshie, Vanek, Eaves
    – or –
    Shortterm UFA like Vrbata, Williams

    Those longterm UFA’s won’t be much cheaper than Eberle and you would think they’ll want more than 2 years. Chia either has to bet that Eberle bounces back, a UFA can slot in as replacement (without throwing off the cap situation), or a young player will break out.

  119. Bank Shot says:

    Side: Remember when Maroon was practically given to Edmonton for free, probably because Anaheim thought Maroon couldn’t play in the NHL even with skilled players?

    There’s no doubt that Maroon’s worth has increased tremendously because he has proven he can play and even play with the best.

    So, pumping tires works, imo. Analytics would probably agree with this situation, too.

    Is Maroon in Edmonton that different than Anaheim?

    He was on pace for 38 and 39 points his first two seasons there.

    He scored 11 points in 16 playoff games playing with Getzlaf and Perry the season prior.

    I think Rakell ate his lunch on the first line, he couldn’t play with Kesler because he doesn’t check well enough, and he wasn’t providing enough for the Ducks in the bottom six.

    I like the big lug just fine, but I don;t think Anaheim was fooled or anything.

  120. pocession charge says:

    godot10: VOR is not alone on the island.

    I know. It’s hyperbole. In reality, he is part of a small minority including yourself. It’s kind of the opposite of the coaching situation — most like McLellan but a small minority think he’s medicocre, at best.

  121. godot10 says:

    Side: Remember when Maroon was practically given to Edmonton for free, probably because Anaheim thought Maroon couldn’t play in the NHL even with skilled players?

    There’s no doubt that Maroon’s worth has increased tremendously because he has proven he can play and even play with the best.

    So, pumping tires works, imo. Analytics would probably agree with this situation, too.

    Chiarelli was able to get Maroon because he was fat and happy. He had his moments in Anaheim too with Perry and Getzlaf, but he showed a lack of commitment.

    But he is an older complimentary player…some foolish GM is going to give him too much money and too much duration on his next contract.

  122. Bag of Pucks says:

    LostBoy: You can call that “nuance” if you want.Most people would call it cherry picking.Almost every player slumps and has hot streaks.You ignore anyone’s best games, duh, they don’t look as good.

    But I’ll play along: take away all three games down the stretch where he beat up on bottom feeders, against COL, VAN, and VAN, and did most of his late damage (7 points), and pretend he did nothing in them.

    And he’s STILL tied for 30th in RW boxcars, either borderline first line or highest end second line production.

    Take a look at the JTBLACK post above. Ebs scored very little against playoff teams. This cleaning up against bottom feeders narrative has some legs. And of course, some will argue that the elite scorers always ramp up the stats against the dregs. But you have to score SOME against the better teams.

  123. VOR says:

    JTBlack,

    I mean no disrespect but Eberle’s heat maps and shot distance and quality data all suggest he had a number of good looks and didn’t take any more shots on average from the half wall than he has throughout his career. He shot on average from nearly the same distance as he has throughout his career. His career average is 23.34 and in the playoffs he averaged 23.8 ft. Interestingly, based on average shot distance Eberle was #5 on the team. [Maroon, Kassian, McDavid, Draisaital, and Eberle]. All five were closer than average for forwards in the playoffs. He also, despite what people are choosing to believe played tougher competition with poorer teammates than Draisaital and had way worse PDO (various sites have different numbers for it but they all agree of the regulars Eberle had the worst PDO and Draisaital the best in the playoffs). I am not ragging on Draisaital (love the kid) merely pointing out that over short sample sizes outcomes are not good ways to judge players.

  124. geowal says:

    Jaxon:

    Eberle (6.000Mx2) – – – – – – – Gallagher (3.750Mx4)
    Pouliot (4.000Mx2) – – – – – – Plekanec (6.000Mx1)
    Reinhart (0.863Mx0)RFA – Thrower (0.646Mx0)RFA
    3rd Round in 2017 – – – – – – 5th Round in 2017
    CAP 10.863M out – – – – – – – CAP 10.396M in

    Then Plekanec’s salary comes off the books just in time for McDavid’s big contract.

    Thoughts?

    I have a hard time seeing Pouliot being welcomed back to Montreal.

  125. Glass says:

    You mentioned sending Caleb Jones as a sweetener for Vegas to take Pouliot, which leads me to think the end goal is protect Reinhart (losing Pouliot’s cap hit is a plus).

    Curious, do you think C. Jones will become a better player than Reinhart? Despite the difference in pedigrees, I kind of think that’s the case. The only sweetener I’m willing to give up is Benson or Lagesson.

  126. LostBoy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Take a look at the JTBLACK post above. Ebs scored very little against playoff teams. This cleaning up against bottom feeders narrative has some legs. And of course, some will argue that the elite scorers always ramp up the stats against the dregs. But you have to score SOME against the better teams.

    Maybe have this argument with someone who has actually taken the positions you’re arguing about?

    What I said is that Eberle’s regular season production is constantly getting described as “poor,” when in objective fact it’s 20th best in the league – he produced at a firm first line level with second line minutes. If you don’t think it’s the right kind of points, like, good for you. I didn’t say it was, one way or the other.

  127. 106 and 106 says:

    “The Raptors still have the best opportunity to re-sign Lowry as they can offer him a five-year max deal of roughly $200 million, whereas other teams can only offer four years at $35 million per year.

    I DON’T UNDERSTAND HOW OTHER SPORTS WORK.

    We are talking about $6.75 vs $7 MM for Leon and $11 or 12 MM per year for a Franchise Altering Player,

    and some guy (All-Star, yes, but not franchise changing) in the NBA can get $40M/year.

    Huh.

  128. CrazyCoach says:

    Glass: Curious, do you think C. Jones will become a better player than Reinhart? Despite the difference in pedigrees, I kind of think that’s the case. The only sweetener I’m willing to give up is Benson or Lagesson.

    Good question,

    Having seen Jones play recently (Here, I would say that his footspeed is miles ahead of Reinhart at this point.

    My caveat on Jones is that he doesn’t engage very much physically and played on a D corp in Portland this year that featured a bevy of overagers and potential 5th overall pick, Cody Glass.

    Still, he would be a good throw in for a deal to get a forward.

  129. digger50 says:

    What I think Peter will do:

    Trade Eberle for a second rounder (which turns into nothing)
    Sign Russel
    Add Rienhart to roster

    Buy out Fayne
    Not be able to move Pouliott, but not play him either

    Adds Spencer Foo
    Adds another surprise forward that has never been mentioned on this blog
    go with LB as backup

    I have accused Peter of making the easy moves before and not digging hard enough. To be clear, he has done a fine and job overall, I am just talking about areas for improvement.

    In my opinion, what he should do in regards to the roster:

    Work the draft deadline hard, shake somebody valuable loose. Steal a Montour, Pysyk, Silvferburg, or a 50pt right hand center. (Hays shoots left but 6’5 and 49pts on year) Do what you have to do but make certain the return is worth it, a 22-25y old who will be here a while.

    Depends on what shakes out, decide rest of the subtractions and additions.

    Must lose Pouliott at this point – coach wont play him
    Must buy out or move Fayne, give him a chance, coach wont play him.
    Add one defenceman, but has to be a good addition, a substantial improvement, otherwise stand pat.
    Count on Tyler Pitlick making the team
    Count on JP making the team
    Add one substantial top 6-9 forward. Experienced 24 28y old right hand center would be the target, but really just get a dam good skilled but gritty 50pt player and we are golden. We need a durable, top end guy.
    Add one more energy rookie with potential – Spencer Foo And if you can get Foo, you may look harder at utilizing the first round pick to bring us what we need.

  130. Ducey says:

    FWIW, (very little) Button has Kole Lind going to the Oilers at 22

    http://www.tsn.ca/nolan-or-nico-button-says-it-s-still-nico-in-latest-mock-1.750199

  131. Side says:

    Bank Shot: Is Maroon in Edmonton that different than Anaheim?

    He was on pace for 38 and 39 points his first two seasons there.

    He scored 11 points in 16 playoff games playing with Getzlaf and Perry the season prior.

    I think Rakell ate his lunch on the first line, he couldn’t play with Kesler because he doesn’t check well enough, and he wasn’t providing enough for the Ducks in the bottom six.

    I like the big lug just fine, but I don;t think Anaheim was fooled or anything.

    I think any time a team is paying a player to play for another team, especially a team that’s in your division, and that player scores 27 goals and has 42 points – I think they were fooled.

  132. Side says:

    godot10:

    But he is an older complimentary player…some foolish GM is going to give him too much money and too much duration on his next contract.

    I just hope it’s not Chia!

  133. Bank Shot says:

    VOR:
    JTBlack,

    I mean no disrespect but Eberle’s heat maps and shot distance and quality data all suggest he had a number of good looks and didn’t take any more shots on average from the half wall than he has throughout his career. He shot on average from nearly the same distance as he has throughout his career. His career average is 23.34 and in the playoffs he averaged 23.8 ft. Interestingly, based on average shot distance Eberle was #5 on the team. [Maroon, Kassian, McDavid, Draisaital, and Eberle]. All five were closer than average for forwards in the playoffs. He also, despite what people are choosing to believe played tougher competition with poorer teammates than Draisaital and had way worse PDO (various sites have different numbers for it but they all agree of the regulars Eberle had the worst PDO and Draisaital the best in the playoffs). I am not ragging on Draisaital (love the kid) merely pointing out that over short sample sizes outcomes are not good ways to judge players.

    I think we can all agree that Draisaitl got some good luck these playoffs. The breakaway whiff for one.
    I think most would agree that RNH was probably unlucky and can provide some examples.
    Pouliot had that one missed 2 on 1. Which I think was probably his best chance in the playoffs by a mile.

    Were there any specific instances were you thought Eberle was getting an unlucky break? I don’t remember any breakaways by him, no posts, no specific instances were I thought he was absolutely robbed by the goalie. He had a couple of 2 on 1s where he decided to shoot and didn’t score that I can recall, but I don’t remember a whole lot of absolutely grade A scoring chances for Ebs.

    I mean Eberle certainly wasn’t lucky, but do you have any specifics we can talk about were he was abnormally unlucky?

    I can certainly understand that Eberle didn’t get any puckluck, but I just have a hard time thinking that he was extra unlucky because he didn’t really seem to create that many high danger scoring chances.

    And if you know a website that tracks High Danger scoring chances I can go look it up myself. 🙂

  134. trencan says:

    Professor Q: Would Dadonov be a $4.5-5.5 contract?

    Or was that only because it was a desperate Inaugural Team signing? Meaning a promising club like Edmonton could get a cheaper contract done?

    Dadonov will be probably between 3.5 and 4.5. But I would recommend Jan Kovar for Oilers. Big RHC who can play 2/3C or RW….

  135. VOR says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    What I want to know is if you and JTBlack are saying that Eberle didn’t help us make the playoffs?

    I’d say unequivocally he did. I am also saying that in small sample sizes outcomes tell you nothing. More to the point I think the knowledge that Eberle had poor results colored all of our eye tests. It is classic confirmation bias in action.

    So for example, as it happens, different sites have Eberle either being on the ice for 18 or 20 scoring chances for and 22 to 24 against. Let’s take the outer markers and say over 13 games he was on the ice for 6 more chances against than he was the ice for. [Not good but not the worst on the Oilers by any means]. But can any of you remember the 18 scoring chances even the most negative site claims the Oilers had while Eberle was on the ice?

  136. pocession charge says:

    Dominoiler:
    pocession charge,

    I think there is room between vermette / smithson and a RHC that could contribute to offence.. not an easy find, its been a weakness for years, but no where in my comment did I limit the target to a 4th line role player that cant contribute..

    Plus RW depth is weak, so a RHC playing RW would scratch two items off the list..

    Then I’m all for that. I just don’t want them to specifically target a ‘face off guy’.

  137. trencan says:

    pocession charge: I think you are on to something here, especially Shipachyov.Pouliot and a 7th to VGK should get it done.

    I believe he has much bigger value for LVK…

  138. Bank Shot says:

    VOR:
    But can any of you remember the 18 scoring chances even the most negative site claims the Oilers had while Eberle was on the ice?

    I’d say that’s part of the problem. He didn’t really have any very memorable chances which is why I am inclined to think that his lack of production was more than just lack of luck.

  139. VOR says:

    Bankshot,

    Talbot was .890 while Eberle was on the ice. Yikes. At least one site says while he was on the ice the goaltender at the other end had a .990 sv% on 78 shots. Again, yikes!

    So at both the offensive and defensive end of the ice Eberle was playing against Lady Luck.

    Most sites have the scoring chances 20 for, 22 against when Eberle was on the ice. Corsica Hockey has it 18 for and 24 against. But still, nothing that explains a .890 at one end and a .990 at the other. There sure isn’t anything on Eberle or Nuge’s heat maps to explain it either. Nor is there anything in the shot distance or location data.

    It was just bad luck. We then look at the outcomes and turn them into a narrative of deteriorating skills, lack of toughness, lack of character, etc. depending on our personal view of the world.

  140. leadfarmer says:

    Ducey:
    FWIW, (very little) Button has Kole Lind going to the Oilers at 22

    http://www.tsn.ca/nolan-or-nico-button-says-it-s-still-nico-in-latest-mock-1.750199

    Pettersson at 9 would be a fantastic pick for Detroit.

  141. pocession charge says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Here’s what I have trouble reconciling.

    Eberle 20-31-51, +3 is such a disappointment that Oilers should leave him unprotected or retain half of his salary to get rid of him (according to some).

    Duchene 18-23-41, -34 (!!) is so damn valuable that teams should be willing to trade several major assets to acquire him, then highjack a fleet of Brinks trucks in order to pay him.

    Both are 26, with >500 GP on their resume. Eberle has averaged 0.33 G/G & 0.75 P/G, Duchene 0.30 and 0.73. Both are minus players for their careers, Duchene slightly worse.

    I wonder do Avs fans want to ride Duchene out of town on a rail? What is it that makes him so desirable and Eberle a boat anchor? Why is there the assumption that it was just an off-year for Duchene but Eberle is in permanent decline?

    (Thankfully) I didn’t watch enough of Duchene’s games to get a real good read on him, but the ones I did see he wasn’t very good. Definitely more part of the problem than of the solution.

    I wouldn’t put as much stock into Duchene’s numbers this year. That Avs team was beyond dreadful and we all know what that does to good players. Like Sakic, I am likely guilty of overvaluing Duchene in this scenario — they will probably end up with less return on him than people expect. Another year on a bad Avs team will completely sewer his value. Eberle got to play half the season with Connor McDavid and didn’t meet lofty expectations. How does Duchene do in that spot? It’s pure speculation but if I had to bet, I’d say he puts up a lot more than 42 points.

  142. pocession charge says:

    VOR:

    It was just bad luck. We then look at the outcomes and turn them into a narrative of deteriorating skills, lack of toughness, lack of character, etc. depending on our personal view of the world.

    So his line had bad luck, which impacted his scoring numbers. That still doesn’t explain the poor scoring chance data. Also, in game four against the Ducks, he was scared to take a hit and coughed the puck up along the boards, which led to a goal. In a situation like that, I question his toughness.

  143. pocession charge says:

    trencan: I believe he has much bigger value for LVK…

    Probably. I was just pulling your leg. Vegas already signed Shipy to a two year, $9M deal.

  144. CrazyCoach says:

    106 and 106: I DON’T UNDERSTAND HOW OTHER SPORTS WORK.
    We are talking about $6.75 vs $7 MM for Leon and $11 or 12 MM per year for a Franchise Altering Player,
    and some guy (All-Star, yes, but not franchise changing) in the NBA can get $40M/year.
    Huh.

    The appeal of that sport is more to the lowest common denominator thus more idio…… I mean fans, and more revenue, plus wealthy men who have more brains than money.

    And people think hockey has a wacked financial picture.

    $40M/season for a guy who isn’t arguably even in the top 5 at his position.

  145. VOR says:

    Bank Shot,

    The data tells me that Eberle shot from pretty much where he has always shot from. And that in terms of percentage and distribution those shots were mostly from exactly where we would project based on career trends with a slight fuzziness that may just be fewer total data points. He didn’t have as many shot attempts as we would expect to see and didn’t get as many of those shot attempts on net as we would expect to see. The difference wasn’t huge but did lead to him being slightly outplayed in terms of scoring chances and as far as I can tell HDSC but nothing like as much as we all (and I include myself in that group) thought we noticed. There is clear confusion among various sites and sources but it looks like in the end the HDSC battle came down to just a couple of shots difference when Eberle was on the ice.

    The level of opposition while Eberle was on the ice was higher than average for the Oilers. His total possession numbers were above average. But there was, as I just posted a huge difference in on ice sv% from the defensive end to the offensive end when Eberle was on the ice. Take that difference away and we are having a very different conversation. Most people seem to except that differences in on ice sv% are out of the control of the non-goaltenders on the ice. So what we think of as no memorable scoring chances is absurdly successful and lucky goaltending.

  146. Bank Shot says:

    VOR:
    There sure isn’t anything on Eberle or Nuge’s heat maps to explain it either. Nor is there anything in the shot distance or location data.

    It was just bad luck. We then look at the outcomes and turn them into a narrative of deteriorating skills, lack of toughness, lack of character, etc. depending on our personal view of the world.

    I won’t even speak about the defensive side, but the fact that you can’t even think of a single instance where Eberle had a 50/50 chance of scoring a goal should tell you that he wasn’t creating as much as he usually does.

    If it was terrible luck, surely someone would remember a single instance where they thought, “Hey, Eberle got robbed on that one.”

    To me, bad luck is when you have a few great chances and none of them go your way. I don’t think Eberle had five great chances throughout the entire playoffs.

    He didn’t get good luck for sure. Maybe he didn’t even get the normal amount of luck that he usually gets. I can buy that. I can’t really buy that bad luck was the sole reason for that line not producing anything in 12 games.

    I’m pretty sure there was some ineffective offensive play helping out the luck.

  147. Bank Shot says:

    VOR:
    Bank Shot,

    The data tells me that Eberle shot from pretty much where he has always shot from. And that in terms of percentage and distribution those shots were mostly from exactly where we would project based on career trends with a slight fuzziness that may just be fewer total data points. He didn’t have as many shot attempts as we would expect to see and didn’t get as many of those shot attempts on net as we would expect to see. The difference wasn’t huge but did lead to him being slightly outplayed in terms of scoring chances and as far as I can tell HDSC but nothing like as much as we all (and I include myself in that group) thought we noticed. There is clear confusion among various sites and sources but it looks like in the end the HDSC battle came down to just a couple of shots difference when Eberle was on the ice.

    Can you give me a link to a few of the heatmaps with this data?

    I can’t seem to find it.

  148. misfit says:

    I don’t think we should overpay Maroon, but I don’t think we need to pre-emptively trade him off either. Keep him until he becomes a free agent, taking full advantage of the qualities he brings at his current low cap hit, and let him walk as a free agent if he wants too much.

  149. McSorley33 says:

    Ducey,

    Among full time Oilers players:
    He was 4th in even strength points and 5 x 5 points/60.
    He was second on the team in 5 x 5 shots/60
    He was third on the team in 5 x 5 shots (and a career high)
    The problem was his shooting percentage. While Maroon led the team in shooting percentage at 16.90 %, Eberle had a career low 8.97%. His previous seasons he was generally around 11.5 to 13%.(Career 13.4%)
    If his shots had dropped, you could have a concern, but I think a bounceback is likely.
    If he had a shooting % of 12% next year, he would be 82 25 31 56
    ***************************************************************************
    I am not disagreeing with anything you are saying……say Ebs does bounce back in the regular season next year.

    In the playoffs next year – does Eberle continue to give pucks away along the wall?

    In the playoffs, forget goals, does Eberle fire *any* an shots from the kill floor?

    I get we have no RW depth and point getters don’t grow on trees. But
    *forget goals* – what Jordan brought in his own zone, in the playoffs, was cringe worthy.

    Everything suggests – the org. wants him out…yes, yes, that is from the MSM.

    For the record, I would prefer him moved but *not* at the expense of getting something decent back.

  150. Scungilli Slushy says:

    A couple of things to consider about next year’s roster.

    – the Oilers are a contender right now. They nearly made the conference finals

    – because they are contenders roster decisions should be aimed at winning now

    – to find glorious balance the GM has to augment where his core is at. Young cores need veteran support, old cores need youthful replacements. Edmonton’s core is really young and we saw Connor and Leon struggle (as they should) with defensive inconsistency.

    -unestablished players don’t move things forward because the team is full of developing players. Acquiring a player to help in a key position that won’t be fully established for a few years (reliable known game) doesn’t not give the best chance to contend now, which the team can. to delay the best chance to win wastes a few years of time with a special group of young players

    -UFA acquisitions at this point have to be short term and probably not a top end contract. Make sure you aren’t signing the memory of the player, but a veteran that still can play like Justin Williams, and not like Iginla

    -the value of first round picks to the Oilers is much lower than they once were because the core is almost full and the pick well outside of the obviously elite players. With a core under 24 a few firsts could be dealt. In the long term they must be kept to keep the pipeline full.

    As said many times the major hole while Nuge is on the team is 2 RD and if a winger is dealt, then a mature scoring forward.

  151. VOR says:

    Hi Bankshot,

    Try IcyData.com. You have to go player by player but the data is very recent. Then compare those maps to http://www.sportingcharts.com. I really love this one. You can actually compare players. Check out Sidney Crosby’s career heat map head to head with Jordan Eberle’s. Those are the only two that I know of that are not hidden behind paywalls. I am buying a lot of data for my AI project so have access. I believe every thing I have said here over the last few days can be confirmed on these two sites along with nhl.com, corsicahockey, and naturalstatstrick.

  152. Doug McLachlan says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    At this moment, the Stars’ goaltending budget for next year is $15.3 MM.

    Not a Belfour or even a Turco anywhere in sight.

    Hahahahahaha

    Let me float an idea related to this.

    Would you swap Pouliot and his 2x $4M for Niemi and his 1x $4.5M? The problem (cap-wise) on Pouliot isn’t so much this upcoming year, when McDavid is still on his ELC, but next year. Clearly he’s overpaid for what he gives you but given Dallas’ LW depth he might have a chance to bounce back somewhat in Big D.

    Niemi is horribly overpaid for what he gives too but as a one-year NHL goalie who had decent seasons playing for TMac he would serve a purpose for his bloated price and would be gone at the end of the year without the lingering 3 further years of a $1.333M Cap buyout penalty.

    The price many others would be asking of Nill will be a first-round pick (especially since they got the Ducks’ from the Eaves trade). I wonder if Pouliot for Niemi and Dallas’ 2nd works for both Edmonton and the Stars?

  153. Ducey says:

    Doug McLachlan: Let me float an idea related to this.

    Would you swap Pouliot and his 2x $4M for Niemi and his 1x $4.5M?The problem (cap-wise) on Pouliot isn’t so much this upcoming year, when McDavid is still on his ELC, but next year.Clearly he’s overpaid for what he gives you but given Dallas’ LW depth he might have a chance to bounce back somewhat in Big D.

    Niemi is horribly overpaid for what he gives too but as a one-year NHL goalie who had decent seasons playing for TMac he would serve a purpose for his bloated price and would be gone at the end of the year without the lingering 3 further years of a $1.333M Cap buyout penalty.

    The price many others would be asking of Nill will be a first-round pick (especially since they got the Ducks’ from the Eaves trade).I wonder if Pouliot for Niemi and Dallas’ 2nd works for both Edmonton and the Stars?

    I like that, a lot.

  154. McSorley33 says:

    Jordan Eberle Shots on Goal vs Ducks:

    Game 1 – 0
    Game 2 – 1
    Game 3 – 3
    Game 4 – 1
    Game 5 – 1
    Game 6 – 2
    Game 7 – 1

    Zero 5 x 5 points for Jordan in the 7 game series vs the Ducks.

    As mentioned, Getzlaf and Kesler were busy elsewhere with our lineup.

    Insert usual round of ‘ Of course’s’ …

    small sample
    no Jordan’s +/- won’t be mentioned

  155. Diablo says:

    Yep, a Pouliot for Niemi deal would work for me too.

  156. slopitch says:

    pocession charge,

    Maybe. Eberle outscored Duchene by 10 pts last year despite having horrible shooting luck. They are about even the last 4 years playing about the same number of games. Duchene was -34 last year. Its a good time to buy low on him.

  157. Diablo says:

    leadfarmer: Pettersson at 9 would be a fantastic pick for Detroit.

    If we pass up Brannstom in favour of a small winger, I’m going to be pissed.

    I don’t care what the NHLE says about Pettersson – the kid’s a more skinnier bean pole than RNH was at the same age – he better develop elite speed or he’s going to bust hard at the NHL level.

  158. Diablo says:

    slopitch:
    pocession charge,

    Maybe. Eberle outscored Duchene by 10 pts last year despite having horrible shooting luck. They areabout even the last 4 years playing about the same number of games. Duchene was -34 last year. Its a good time to buy low on him.

    After getting jack for O’Reilly – there is just no way Sakic lets Duchene go without a king’s ransom in return. Everyone should just walk away from the negotiating table and let the dysfunction continue in Denver until Duchene becomes a UFA in 2 years.

  159. John Chambers says:

    As far as the market goes, there are players nearing the end of their career who want to win a championship more than they want to get paid.

    Enter Joe Thornton.

    Big Joe on a $3M x 2 deal would be the ideal #3 centre for this team. Having been beat by the young Oilers, it might make sense to hop on the McDavid bus and join them for a pair of championship runs.

  160. VOR says:

    I get that the idea of luck playing a hand in Jordan Eberle’s outcomes is proving a hard sell. Have none of you ever experienced good luck? Bad luck? Long runs of each. Am I the only one?

    Given that hockey as a sport is highly luck driven (estimates vary but a lot of what we see on the ice is down to luck) why is so hard for you to accept that luck plays a role for individual players. I don’t get it. Would someone like to explain it to me?

  161. Chachi says:

    VOR:
    I get that the idea of luck playing a hand in Jordan Eberle’s outcomes is proving a hard sell. Have none of you ever experienced good luck? Bad luck? Long runs of each. Am I the only one?

    Given that hockey as a sport is highly luck driven (estimates vary but a lot of what we see on the ice is down to luck) why is so hard for you to accept that luck plays a role for individual players. I don’t get it. Would someone like to explain it to me?

    I think part of the problem you are having getting through to people is that despite what the numbers say (and I agree they say with a bit better luck Eberle’s box cars in the playoffs would have been fine) there seems to have been some sort of phenomena affecting everyone who watched the playoffs this year which has led to them believing that Eberle’s play was poor. I am guilty of this myself (although I believe the numbers you have posted indicate Eberle played as he usually does). It seemed to my eyes that Eberle was fine against San Jose and was truly awful against Anaheim. Strangely, the same phenomenon does not happen to have affected my viewing of Eberle’s linemate, RNH, who seemed to my eyes to be unlucky against the Ducks.

    I think you could pull up a whole bunch of video showing pucks bouncing or just going wide or inexplicably hitting an unsuspecting goalie for RNH. Could you do the same for Eberle? Someone should re-watch all the games and post video of Eberle getting unlucky. I’m not going to do it, but you would probably need something like that to convince people who have made up their minds about it.

  162. pocession charge says:

    VOR:
    I get that the idea of luck playing a hand in Jordan Eberle’s outcomes is proving a hard sell. Have none of you ever experienced good luck? Bad luck? Long runs of each. Am I the only one?

    Given that hockey as a sport is highly luck driven (estimates vary but a lot of what we see on the ice is down to luck) why is so hard for you to accept that luck plays a role for individual players. I don’t get it. Would someone like to explain it to me?

    If it is largely luck-driven, then why are McDavid, Crosby, Kane, Malkin, Karlsson, etc, lead the league in scoring year after year? They are more skilled, create more scoring chances, or are better at executing those chances. Those players have bad luck on a regular basis, too. For Eberle to be so unlucky that he can’t score a goal in thirteen playoff games…well, he’s either one of the unluckiest players in the league or his skills are eroding.

  163. Jethro Tull says:

    Side: Remember when Maroon was practically given to Edmonton for free, probably because Anaheim thought Maroon couldn’t play in the NHL even with skilled players?

    There’s no doubt that Maroon’s worth has increased tremendously because he has proven he can play and even play with the best.

    So, pumping tires works, imo. Analytics would probably agree with this situation, too.

    I knew this would come up – all Maroon has proved is that he can put up points with the best player in the world. It’s what he can do away from McDavid that is the key. Now, he’s on a hell of a deal for the Oilers, so you can keep him there. But putting Eberle with McDavid will only prove the same thing – he can score when he plays with really good players.

    Maroon proved this when he played with Perty and Getzstuffed and then was dropped down the line up. Crosby dragged two rookies along, however i would but dollars to donuts they would struggle away from him.

  164. pocession charge says:

    Kevin Lowe:
    Jordan Eberle and Milan Lucic shot maps from twitter https://twitter.com/OilersNerdAlert/status/862700989849124864

    Playoffs https://twitter.com/OilersNerdAlert/status/862681145556611072

    Lucic did not have a wonderful playoff run either. And I don’t think he was unlucky. But Looch has a NMC so it’s not very easy to dump his $6M. Ebs can be traded. If the Oilers had tons of cap space, there wouldn’t be as much trade talk involving him.

  165. fifthcartel says:

    I’m not sure if anyone saw this, but Friedman was on Tim and Sid and casually mentioned that Peter Chiarelli was very mindful of the cap in regards to bonuses and that the Oilers only ended up with ~850k in bonus overages, and that was something GMPC watched as next year is the season they really go for it.

    That would be really encouraging, I thought it was way more.

  166. classict says:

    pocession charge: If it is largely luck-driven, then why are McDavid, Crosby, Kane, Malkin, Karlsson, etc, lead the league in scoring year after year?They are more skilled, create more scoring chances, or are better at executing those chances.Those players have bad luck on a regular basis, too.For Eberle to be so unlucky that he can’t score a goal in thirteen playoff games…well, he’s either one of the unluckiest players in the league or his skills are eroding.

    Generally those guys get more chances.

    Very few players sustain very high shooting percentages. Don’t expect TJ Oshie to score 23 5v5 goals again without creating more chances, he’s not going to shoot at 26% at evens again.

    So when a guy is still getting the chances, but not producing, there’s a reasonable chance it was just poor shooting luck. We’re talking about a difference of 5/6 goals in a year.

  167. treevojo says:

    fifthcartel:
    I’m not sure if anyone saw this, but Friedman was on Tim and Sid and casually mentioned that Peter Chiarelli was very mindful of the cap in regards to bonuses and that the Oilers only ended up with ~850k in bonus overages, and that was something GMPC watched as next year is the season they really go for it.

    That would be really encouraging, I thought it was way more.

    Friedman also spitballed trading Jordan eberle for Alex ovechkin.

  168. treevojo says:

    I have also stated on here that if I were mcdavid’s agent I would tell Chiarelli I want 9.7 for 5 years.

    Max signing bonuses every year.

    Sets up well for cba plus allows Connor to re-evaluate where organization is in 5 years from date of signing.

    Why sign max term when your gm, coach and basically all the players are not.

    Make the organization prove they are worth your 3rd contract.

    Money is never going to be an issue for Connor.

  169. treevojo says:

    Thinker:
    Funnily enough, if you take Crosby’s 8.7 in 2012 as a percentage, that works out to 9.7 in todays dollars. If you base it off Crosby’s first contract, you are looking at 11 million. Connor has a lot of endorsements, which may reduce his desire for big money. Not sure, but I think the range is 9.7-11. Paying above that would be unlikely since the highest NHL cap hit is 10.5.

    The thing with McDavid is that despite buying RFA years, he isn’t old enough that back-loading the contract makes sense from his perspective, so his cap hit will be much closer to his actual dollars paid. I could see a bridge deal ala crosby so that the second contract can be back-loaded to get the cost down. Only problem there is the 8 years that was imposed. Which means after a 5 year bridge, you would only belooking at a 34 yo connor in his final year of that third contract.

    Crosby’s second contract at the time of signing was 17.3% of the salary cap.

    If Mcdavid were to sign today to the equivalent of this years cap it would be for 12.629 million per year for 5 years.

    Mcdavid would be doing the Oilers a huge favour signing for 9.7 for 5 years.

    I hope he does.

  170. Bank Shot says:

    VOR:

    I get that the idea of luck playing a hand in Jordan Eberle’s outcomes is proving a hard sell. Have none of you ever experienced good luck? Bad luck? Long runs of each. Am I the only one?

    Given that hockey as a sport is highly luck driven (estimates vary but a lot of what we see on the ice is down to luck) why is so hard for you to accept that luck plays a role for individual players. I don’t get it. Would someone like to explain it to me?

    First off thanks for the links. 🙂

    On to Eberle:

    Erberle scored an even strength point in game on of the playoffs and didn’t get another one.

    He went 12 games without an ES point. He’s played 7 seasons and his longest streak aside from this one was 8 games as far as I can tell.

    So this playoff run would qualify as the unluckiest stretch that Eberle has ever played in 7 seasons. It sure didn’t look like it though.

    When I compare Eberle’s heat maps from regular season to playoffs, I see that he scores about 80% of his goals from right in the slot. During the playoffs he only managed two tips and a backhand from that dangerous scoring area. To me that is different than what he did in the regular season.

    We agree that luck can have some impact. Where it disconnects for me, is that you are attributing all of Eberle’s playoff struggles to luck, but that didn’t match the eye test. The eye test noticed RNH’s bad luck. It saw Draisaitl’s good luck.

    I would say that Eberle played OK, but should be capable of playing better than he did.

  171. BlueNoteNorth says:

    Jethro Tull: I knew this would come up – all Maroon has proved is that he can put up points with the best player in the world.It’s what he can do away from McDavid that is the key. Now, he’s on a hell of a deal for the Oilers, so you can keep him there. But putting Eberle with McDavid will only prove the same thing – he can score when he plays with really good players.

    Maroon proved this when he played with Perty and Getzstuffed and then was dropped down the line up. Crosby dragged two rookies along, however i would but dollars to donuts they would struggle away from him.

    Agree. Everyone scored when playing with Gretzky. However Kurri and Tikanen helped elevate Gretzky’s line to much higher levels than BJ MacDonald and Calligan did. I am looking for Chiarelli to provide a similar upgrade for McDavid.

  172. VOR says:

    Pocession Change, Bank Shot,

    First of all, Bank Shot. I am not sure I agree with your numbers but I definitely agree with your conclusion. I think Eberle played meh/OK but in terrible bad luck. I think if he had gotten about average luck we would be saying well he played okay but we really expected and probably the Oilers need more from him. That is no reason to give him up to Las Vegas or trade him for pennies on the dollar. (I am not suggesting either of you said any such thing but we all know other posters here have.) I am merely saying there is a strong chance that the luck normalizes and next year is a distinct improvement, both during the regular season and into the playoffs, for Jordan Eberle.

    In conclusion I would like to offer a very strange piece of evidence up as my final statement on the subject. I have been looking all afternoon for evidence of exactly how Eberle’s performance deteriorated in the playoffs (prior to today I have identified that he took fewer shot attempts per minute played than during the regular season and that he got fewer of those shots on net. I think he may have changed where he was shooting from – I am concerned as I said before that he seems to be abandoning the sides of the crease over time and he needs to start going back there but I think that is correctable and may be injury related). The question I was trying to answer this afternoon was if there are other areas where his play was different in the playoffs from the regular season.

    I have a stat I created and like to track. I call it engagements. The simple version is this, add up Give Aways and Take Aways add to that blocks and hits and you end up with a proxy for engagement with the game. Let’s use Draisaital again as the bench mark, his engagement number for the playoffs was 299 versus Eberle’s 145. So roughly 3.7 engagements per game for Leon versus 1.8 per game for Eberle. We could break it down by minute but I am sure you all get the idea. So Draisaital goes up to 5.5 engagements per game in the playoffs but Eberle goes up to 3.0 so a bigger percentage increase than Draisaital. RNH increased the amount of his engagement the most in terms of % of any player at 92%. And he wasn’t exactly slacking off in the regular season

    So Eberle’s work ethic didn’t fade in the playoffs, in fact he increased his engagement by 67%.

  173. Bank Shot says:

    VOR:

    So Eberle’s work ethic didn’t fade in the playoffs, in fact he increased his engagement by 67%.

    It might not be a case of Eberle’s work ethic or engagement decreasing.

    It might be that everyone else’s intensity goes up and Eberle is ill equipped to deal with it. He goes to poke in rebounds during the regular season, but maybe he gets boxed out/knocked on his butt more often in the playoffs. He’s pretty famous for scoring goals when he dipsy doodles defenders in the slot area. There isn’t usually time or space for that in the playoffs.

    When the refs put their whistles away, I think that hurts Eberle more then it does Draisaitl.

    I’m not sure if that’s the case or not, but its possible IMO.

  174. Chachi says:

    VOR:
    Pocession Change, Bank Shot,

    First of all, Bank Shot. I am not sure I agree with your numbers but I definitely agree with your conclusion. I think Eberle played meh/OK but in terrible bad luck. I think if he had gotten about average luck we would be saying well he played okay but we really expected and probably the Oilers need more from him. That is no reason to give him up to Las Vegas or trade him for pennies on the dollar. (I am not suggesting either of you said any such thing but we all know other posters here have.) I am merely saying there is a strong chance that the luck normalizes and next year is a distinct improvement, both during the regular season and into the playoffs, for Jordan Eberle.

    In conclusion I would like to offer a very strange piece of evidence up as my final statement on the subject. I have been looking all afternoon for evidence of exactly how Eberle’s performance deteriorated in the playoffs (prior to today I have identified that he took fewer shot attempts per minute played than during the regular season and that he got fewer of those shots on net. I think he may have changed where he was shooting from – I am concerned as I said before that he seems to be abandoning the sides of the crease over time and he needs to start going back there but I think that is correctable and may be injury related). The question I was trying to answer this afternoon was if there are other areas where his play was different in the playoffs from the regular season.

    I have a stat I created and like to track. I call it engagements. The simple version is this, add up Give Aways and Take Aways add to that blocks and hits and you end up with a proxy for engagement with the game. Let’s use Draisaital again as the bench mark, his engagement number for the playoffs was 299 versus Eberle’s 145. So roughly 3.7 engagements per game for Leon versus 1.8 per game for Eberle. We could break it down by minute but I am sure you all get the idea. So Draisaital goes up to 5.5 engagements per game in the playoffs but Eberle goes up to 3.0 so a bigger percentage increase than Draisaital. RNH increased the amount of his engagement the most in terms of % of any player at 92%. And he wasn’t exactly slacking off in the regular season

    So Eberle’s work ethic didn’t fade in the playoffs, in fact he increased his engagement by 67%.

    Your engagement stat is intriguing, but the hit, giveaway and takeaway stats are problematic aren’t they? For example I believe San Jose was credited with approximately 7000 hits in game 3 or 4 this year. Can’t remember which game off the top of my head, but the total was laughable.

  175. PerryK says:

    If you’re going with those players, my line combination preference would be:

    Caggiula McDavid Kassian
    Lucic Draisaitl Eberle
    Maroon RNH Puljujarvi
    Slepy Letestu Pitlick

    I think that Kassian can keep up with Caggiula and McDavid somewhat, and provides deterrence against heavy handling as required. Lucic and Draisaitl are a good combination; big bodies, Eberle may get some room to sip in to the cracks and not have to drive a line. RNH may be able to unlock Puljujarvi and if not, Maroon can maybe pot some and Pulj can become F1 on defensive assignments. Slepyshev prefers to play off side wing so he is likely a candidate for this position on a 3 RHS line. Hopefully Pitlick can have an injury free season for once. As you can see, there would not be any real checking line. Closest would be the RNH line. To protect a lead, you could send out RNH on LW with Letestu and Puljujarvi, who has so far shown reasonable conscience for D.

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