RE 16-17 MILAN LUCIC: LURGEE

Oilers fans and media spent so many years talking about getting a “Lucic type” on the roster. It seems acquiring the actual model overwhelmed them. Actual Lucic couldn’t meet the hype and expectation, and disappointment over a 50-point season was the result.

That’s the line I may want you to believe, but the truth is Milan Lucic struggled badly this season. In spite of those struggles, fans and media seem very satisfied with his rugged play and maximum effort.

Here are the facts: Lucic was fabulous on the power play, but Edmonton needed him to bring much more at even strength—the heart of the game. The man, the myth, the legend, he spent too much time being passed by the flow of play and turning the puck over. Redemption ahead? We hope. (Lurgee)

MILAN LUCIC 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.22 (9th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 7.04 (1st among regular forwards, No. 6 among NHL regular F’s)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 51.2
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 1.4
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 46.1
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -1.8
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 175 shots/13.1%
  • Boxcars: 82, 23-27-50
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS

  • RE 16-17: 80, 22-39-61 (0.763)
  • Actual 16-17: 82, 23-27-50 (0.610)
  • Source
  1. You’ve lied a lot over the years, never more than about this guy. Lucic? How so?
  2. You went on and on about his passing and his patience and finding open lanes. LIES! Lucic has that in his game, but it wasn’t on display enough. His assist total reflects it. He had 35 a year ago in Los Angeles.
  3. How many more years? Six more years, $36 million more dollars.
  4. I’ll eventually kill you over this contract. Just let me enjoy the Stanley.
  5. Your RE was horrible, so at least consistency is your friend. Well, yes and no. Overall the boxcars were good (although lower than my prediction), but Lucic is traditionally an even-strength man. This year, not so much.
  6. How big was the gap? Through his career (up until this season), ML posted 83 percent of his total points at evens. In 2016-17, he posted just 50 percent. That’s a weird change of pace.
  7. Has he ever done it before? Not close to that kind of ratio, no. He has been a solid even-strength performer.
  8. What was your RE prediction for points by discipline? I had him posting 10 power-play points (25!) and 51 at even strength (25!!).
  9. Will he regress next season? Hope so. 83 percent of 50 points at 5×5 has more value, is more difficult to do. That’s one of the reasons why the contract starts with a six.
  10. How was he with and without McDavid? All of this is 5×5. With 97, ML went 6-5-11 in 452 minutes (1.46 5×5/60) and 55.3 CF 5×5/60. Without CMD, Lucic went 7-5-12 in 683 minutes (1.05 5×5/60) and 48.5 CF 5×5/60.
  11. That’s awful. Well it isn’t good, and Lucic played a feature role all year. He’s going to need to be better at 5×5.
  12. Power play was good! Madness. In his last five seasons, his 5×4/60: 1.34; 3.90, 3.27, 2.83 and then 7.04. Simply amazing. Lucic didn’t hold the 1L job with McDavid (played 40 percent of his 5×5 season with 97), but he had a strong year on the 5×4.
  13. What did he do in the playoffs? He went 13, 2-4-6, going 1-2-3 in each of the two series.
  14. I thought he was a veteran leader. This is not a claim this blog would make about any player. The playoffs are more important,  so we build up strong performances in small samples sizes.
  15. What’s the best thing you can say about his season? Strong on the power play, he had moments of impressive play over a two or three game stretch. Those stretches are what we would hope to see more consistently in the coming season.
  16. At age 29? And with a lot of miles. That is the bet.
  17. Can he recover? He seemed top heavy all year, muscle bound. I wonder if he might be wise to get with the same guy who helped Patrick Maroon.
  18. Why this song? I chose it for the feel, there’s a real sadness to this song, even though it is about moving on to a better place. Lucic has had some hard things in his life, and this situation in Edmonton is a promising new beginning. As with all new things, it can bring loneliness and uncertainty along with the promise of a new day. That’s what this song means to me.
  19. Solid. Radiohead lyrics are open to interpretation.
  20. Who are his comparables? Hockey-reference says (10 seasons) that David Backes, Dustin Brown and Scott Hartnell are in the range offensively (and I picked them for similar style reasons).
  21. How did Lucic adjust to his new sitation? Lucic: “There were a lot of things that were unknown coming into this season. It took me a little bit. Being in Edmonton where you’re the biggest show in town is a little different. In Boston sometimes you could fly under the radar.”
  22. What does that mean? What does that mean?
  23. Why did Lucic get moved off the 1line? Lucic-McDavid-Eberle had 25 points in the first eight games of the season, then the offense dried up. McLellan promoted Patrick Maroon to LW early November, and that’s all she wrote.
  24. What is your honest opinion about Lucic moving forward?  It is vital Lucic have a stronger 5×5 season in 2017-18, or his contract is going to be an albatross during the Connor McDavid era in Edmonton. Even strength is the heart of the game.
  25. Are you still a fan of Lucic? Sure, he helped win a Stanley for the Bruins and ran over people on other teams at will. That doesn’t really have much to do with our conversation though. He needs to be faster in all things this fall. Lucic knows that.

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41 Responses to "RE 16-17 MILAN LUCIC: LURGEE"

  1. Scungilli Slushy says:

    It takes time for teams to settle into a system. I’m hoping and think all of the players that stay will have better seasons and lines will work better, better breakouts, better O zone entries and more sustained O zone time which would probably suit Looch’s game more than rushing the puck and losing possession quickly often.

    He might have to change his training to suit a faster game and older body.

  2. Diablo says:

    Lucic looked a step too slow this year. But man when he can get there on time he has an immediate and positive impact. Because of that, I remain hopeful that this is more an issue of training – needs to focus more on cardio and speed training and less work in the weight room – than a diminution of skill.

    One thing that’s obvious about him – he’s a proud guy and he knows that he didn’t have a great season – he’ll put in the work this summer, so I wouldn’t bet against him next year.

  3. Rondo says:

    “Your old road is rapidly aging.
    Please get out of the new one
    If you can’t lend your hand,
    For the times they are a-changin’.”

  4. stevezie says:

    I love talking Lucic because he gives everyone who thinks anything so much to work with.

    Is 51 points good? Hell yeah!
    Did he have the best Powerplay season of his career? You bet!
    Did he bring the physical presence? Big time!
    But
    Did he suck 5×5? You bet!
    Doesn’t everyone who plays on the McDavid PP have a career year? Pretty much.
    Is his contract awful? And how!
    And consider,
    Leadership? I dunno, probably kind of? Do you love your job? Does that love impact your co workers? Prove it.

    I don’t know how any rational person could argue any of those points. It all depends on which one you want to focus on.

    Key to the resurgence? Not worth a 7th? Any smart person who doesn’t think the answer is “yes” isn’t really trying.

  5. McNuge93 says:

    in some aspects I think he had a significant positive impact. You play the big physical teams like the Ducks and Kings and he can dish it out to they’re big guys. I know Kass and Maroon do it too but I think it starts with him. Teams respect us more. But I was surprised at his middling puck handling skills. He get a pass and bobble it at first or get a pass and he’s slow to get a shot off. But around the crease he’s a beast. Most of his goals were from 6 feet or less

  6. frjohnk says:

    I was happier with the signing of Lucic than with his play during the year.

    Found him very inconsistent and for the first half of the year the play would just die on his stick or would die with an errant pass.

    He got a bit better as the year went along 5 on 5. His “slow boots” were still slow but it seemed like he had better positioning.

    And he killed on the PP.

    Had a few games during the season where he dominated physically and on the score sheet, but I had expected more from him. He had a lot of hits during the year, but alot of them were when the puck was already gone, so the hits didnt really affect the play much. Contrast that with Larsson who was among the lead leaders in hits that separated player from puck in the middle of the year. Thats when hits mean something.

    But I loved the Fowler hit in the Ducks series.

    With the game getting faster every year, he will have to do something ( lose weight, get quicker) as he exits his prime.

    I also think a full year under Mclellan will do wonders for Lucic next year and I expect a better year 5 on 5. I dont expect the same kind of year on the PP.

  7. stevezie says:

    frjohnk: But I loved the Fowler hit in the Ducks series.

    I also loved him choke slamming Lindholm against the glass. Lucic is one of the few payers in the league who seems capable of genuinely intimidating another adult professional hockey player.

    I read a lot of people hoping he gets faster. Is there a long track record of players finding another gear at 29? I think I remember Iginla dropping 20 pounds and doing it, but it’s pretty unicorn-y, no?

  8. Woogie63 says:

    How do we measure the extra toughness the balance of the team feels with 27 on this team.

    “Milan is man Strength” Zach Kassian on after hours

  9. Klima's_Bucket says:

    One thing that really was frustrating all season was how Lucic struggled to take and make a pass in the neutral zone all year and playoffs with several pucks a game bouncing awry off of his stick.

    Please don’t tell him I said that.

  10. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT!

    – LT says “Lucic was fabulous on the power play”

    – 25% of scoring happens on the power play. Power-plays are approximately 10% of the total minutes in a game

    – Fancy stats seem to “dismiss” players who score on the power-play, which I’ve always found odd

    – Taylor Hall scored 4 PPG goals with the Oil. Lucic scored 12 PPG this year. I see many posters discrediting Lucic “because he got lots of points on the PP” (Hall scored 7 this year)

    – Scoring on the PP matters. It is too easily dismissed

    – Lucic is 28 (3 years older than Hall): He scored 3 more goals than Taylor Hall. His “intangibles” are valued by his teammates and coaches. Virtually every fancy-stat poster said Hall >>> Lucic

    – I’m glad we have Lucic. He’s frustrating, as was Hall with his Bambi skating, falling as he raced with the puck through the zone, getting injured all the time: paralizing our offence when he did

  11. sliderule says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!

    – LT says “Lucic was fabulous on the power play”

    – 25% of scoring happens on the power play. Power-plays are approximately 10% of the total minutes in a game

    – Fancy stats seem to “dismiss” players who score on the power-play, which I’ve always found odd

    – Taylor Hall scored 4 PPG goals with the Oil.Lucic scored 12 PPG this year.I see many posters discrediting Lucic “because he got lots of points on the PP” (Hall scored 7 this year)

    – Scoring on the PP matters.It is too easily dismissed

    – Lucic is 28 (3 years older than Hall): He scored 3 more goals than Taylor Hall.His “intangibles” are valued by his teammates and coaches.Virtually every fancy-stat poster said Hall >>> Lucic

    – I’m glad we have Lucic.He’s frustrating, as was Hall with his Bambi skating, falling as he raced with the puck through the zone, getting injured all the time: paralizing our offencewhen he did

    This is a great post

  12. Pescador says:

    Hi Lowetide, all.
    I’m sure this has been posted here before, some of Milan’ s best work off ice:
    https://youtu.be/D7g3RuoreRc
    Shawn Thornton, Oh yea & some guy name Bobby Orr (never heard of im).
    If you are in the slightest bit amused, might I recommend a duet of sorts with non other then “The Boss”:
    https://youtu.be/kRkkStu4__M

  13. leadfarmer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Good post. I find 5v5 offense to be a much bigger issue for bottom 6 guys who may or may not get powerplay time depending on the team their on. Most top 6 forwards get a good amount of powerplay time.

    I like Lucic’s physicality and ability to create space. Unfortunately speed is the new size and when he loses a step that contract will hurt

  14. stevezie says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Scoring on the PP matters. It is too easily dismissed

    Yep.

    I think we got in the habit of (rightly) not using it to judge jr prospects and things just spiralled out of hand.

    I believe even strength scoring is more repeatable year after year but i may be wrong.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!

    – LT says “Lucic was fabulous on the power play”

    – 25% of scoring happens on the power play. Power-plays are approximately 10% of the total minutes in a game

    – Fancy stats seem to “dismiss” players who score on the power-play, which I’ve always found odd

    – Taylor Hall scored 4 PPG goals with the Oil.Lucic scored 12 PPG this year.I see many posters discrediting Lucic “because he got lots of points on the PP” (Hall scored 7 this year)

    – Scoring on the PP matters.It is too easily dismissed

    – Lucic is 28 (3 years older than Hall): He scored 3 more goals than Taylor Hall.His “intangibles” are valued by his teammates and coaches.Virtually every fancy-stat poster said Hall >>> Lucic

    – I’m glad we have Lucic.He’s frustrating, as was Hall with his Bambi skating, falling as he raced with the puck through the zone, getting injured all the time: paralizing our offencewhen he did

    I’m glad we have Lucic too. One of my favorite players ever. A steamroller on skates.

  16. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!

    – LT says “Lucic was fabulous on the power play”

    – 25% of scoring happens on the power play. Power-plays are approximately 10% of the total minutes in a game

    – Fancy stats seem to “dismiss” players who score on the power-play, which I’ve always found odd

    – Taylor Hall scored 4 PPG goals with the Oil.Lucic scored 12 PPG this year.I see many posters discrediting Lucic “because he got lots of points on the PP” (Hall scored 7 this year)

    – Scoring on the PP matters.It is too easily dismissed

    – Lucic is 28 (3 years older than Hall): He scored 3 more goals than Taylor Hall.His “intangibles” are valued by his teammates and coaches.Virtually every fancy-stat poster said Hall >>> Lucic

    – I’m glad we have Lucic.He’s frustrating, as was Hall with his Bambi skating, falling as he raced with the puck through the zone, getting injured all the time: paralizing our offencewhen he did

    He scored 28 PP points in the last 3 full years before he became an Oiler.

    He scored 25 PP points last year.

    Will Lucic’s PP scoring from this past year going to happen next year? Remember he is not he guy driving the offense on the PP. The guys that drive the offense on the PP1 are McDavid, Draisaitl and Klefbom,

    If his 5 on 5 scoring is what he is moving forward AND he doesnt stick on PP1, those box cars will not look very good.

    I liked the Lucic get from day 1. Never liked the contract. To be fair to him the UFA class of 2016 will probably have a couple of buyouts and a couple of guys on LTIR at the end of their contracts. While Lucic’s contract is not a good one, Lucic’s is not the worst one.

  17. frjohnk says:

    Yahoo should really change Mark letestu’s picture.

    https://ca.search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=C111CA662D20160921&p=mark+letestu+yahoo

    No way he is a double agent.

    Or is he????

  18. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    In fairness, (anecdotal evidence alert!) Lucic had some absolutely mind boggling even strength chances this year and by eye he was incredibly unlucky not to have scored at least a few more EV tallies during that time he had with Connor.

    Even when playing with Nuge or Eberle, he whiffed on some goal mouth chances that made me shout just as loud as the “Schultz! Office!” moments of years past.

    I also believe the coach told Lucic to try and go to the net and score goals on the rush rather than pull up and find the trailer like he’s been doing most of his career. Might explain the lowered assist total and the fumbling of chances in tight to the net. He’s simply not used to doing that.

    Looking back at Lucic’s goals in Boston/LA, he actually scored from further out than he did this year. He has a heavy shot but a pretty slow wind up, so he needs a bit of room to get it off. In tight he’s too easily distracted by the battle in front and can’t get his stick on the ice. (at evens that is, I explain more later)

    Cross checking the D-man is cool and all, but if Connor is putting the puck clean threw your skates and out the other side you’re doing it too much.

    It’s funny, because you hear about him being so much better in the dirty areas, when really, he’s most effective pulling up a little further out and dishing or firing one of those howitzer wrist shots. He is not
    Mr “score in the paint” Ryan Smyth. He is Milan Lucic. And the coaches need to let him be.

    *Disclaimer* He seems to work beautifully net front on the McDavid unit 5 on 4, where Connor can feed literally anyone for empty net tap ins back door. Credit to Lucic for getting the chance and running with it.

    PS: Lucic probably saved the team some coin on Maroons next contract, because if Looch hadn’t taken over that spot Maroon would have been raking in those 5×4 points fattening up his totals into the 50’s or even 60’s this year.

  19. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide,

    – Nice LT! We agree

    – I can’t reconcile CF% of 51.4% that with ” The man, the myth, the legend, he spent too much time being passed by the flow of play and turning the puck over”

    – His CF% was 2% below his career average (and the same as 2 years ago with BOS)

    – By way of example, Hall had a CF% of 52.8% this year (with better zone starts)

    – I am not intending to to start round #43642 of “The Trade”

    – Could Lucic be better? Sure. Was he “beast mode” circa 2011 with 60 points and 135 PIM and the baddest man in hockey: no. But at 28 years old, with many more years of productive play,

    – He’s set to be Drai’s W for many years and a big part of this team (did I mention he’s only 28)

  20. Mr DeBakey says:

    SEASON ** BUYOUT CAP HIT

    2017-18 ** $2,833,333.00
    2018-19 ** $3,333,333.00
    2019-20 ** $3,833,333.00
    2020-21 ** $5,833,333.00
    2021-22 ** $4,333,333.00
    2022-23 ** $5,833,333.00
    2023-24 ** $833,333.00
    2024-25 ** $833,333.00
    2025-26 ** $833,333.00
    2026-27 ** $833,333.00
    2027-28 ** $833,333.00
    2028-29 ** $833,333.00

  21. --hudson-- says:

    Who would be considered the most productive linemates Lucic ever played with? I am guessing Krejci at centre but unsure of the other winger. Maybe part of what Chia does this summer is find some new linemates for Lucic

    Or I guess stick with Drai and Slepyshev since they seem to have something

  22. jtblack says:

    Lucic wasn’t good at 5×5 and had 23 Goals. Hall had 20. I think the one comment was best, what do you want to focus on? Another year of 5×5 like this and HOUSTON, we have a problem. But I bet he bunces back slightly and posts about 50 points again. Too many givewayas this yr

  23. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk: He scored 28 PP points in the last 3 full years before he became an Oiler.

    He scored 25 PP points last year.

    Will Lucic’s PP scoring from this past year going to happen next year?Remember he is not he guy driving the offense on the PP.The guys that drive the offense on the PP1 are McDavid, Draisaitl and Klefbom,

    If his 5 on 5 scoring is what he is moving forward AND he doesnt stick on PP1, those box cars will not look very good.

    I liked the Lucic get from day 1.Never liked the contract.To be fair to him the UFA class of 2016 will probably have a couple of buyouts and a couple of guys on LTIR at the end of their contracts.While Lucic’s contract is not a good one, Lucic’s is not the worst one.

    – I don’t mean to monopolize the thread, but your “look at how many points he scored on the PP”, is what I referred to earlier. Your damning him with faint praise because he scored a lot on the PP

    – He just did what the coach told him to, and made hay on PP: good! Did he suck on PP before?

    – And to be fair, his SH% was almost 1.5% lower than his average

    – I bet he will be even better in his 2nd year with this team…

  24. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk: He scored 28 PP points in the last 3 full years before he became an Oiler.

    He scored 25 PP points last year.

    Will Lucic’s PP scoring from this past year going to happen next year?Remember he is not he guy driving the offense on the PP.The guys that drive the offense on the PP1 are McDavid, Draisaitl and Klefbom,

    If his 5 on 5 scoring is what he is moving forward AND he doesnt stick on PP1, those box cars will not look very good.

    I liked the Lucic get from day 1.Never liked the contract.To be fair to him the UFA class of 2016 will probably have a couple of buyouts and a couple of guys on LTIR at the end of their contracts.While Lucic’s contract is not a good one, Lucic’s is not the worst one.

    The guy standing in front of the net doesnt drive the powerplay. Doesn’t make the job not important. Guys batting cleanup for McDavid will put up points, see Maroon and Lucic powerplay. Not everyone can do that job

  25. stevezie says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Your damning him with faint praise because he scored a lot on the PP

    If I may be so bold, no he’s not.

    He’s saying, “He scored WAY more on the PP than he usually does”. This gives us good cause to wonder: He’s never done that before; can he do it twice?

  26. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer: The guy standing in front of the net doesnt drive the powerplay.Doesn’t make the job not important.Guys batting cleanup for McDavid will put up points, see Maroon and Lucic powerplay.Not everyone can do that job

    I didnt say his job was not important.

    What Im getting at, is that he does not have a history of putting of lots of points on the PP. Its the system and the other guys I mentioned who are creating the offense for that PP. Maroon played mostly PP2 and had 6 PP points this year. Im sure if Maroon played in Lucics spot on PP1 he could put up points as well.

    If Lucic does well on the PP next year, great, thats awesome. There is then some repeatability.

    But no denying that he has to better at 5 on 5. He had a 24 game stretch of 1 even strength goal and 3 assists mid season. Even Spector said something that Lucic had to be better at even strength.

    Im also expecting him to be better next year. Probably wouldnt hurt to take some pointers from Maroon on losing some of the bulk so his boots are not so slow.

  27. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    stevezie: If I may be so bold, no he’s not.

    He’s saying, “He scored WAY more on the PP than he usually does”. This gives us good cause to wonder: He’s never done that before; can he do it twice?

    – Sure, thats fair to ask. But isn’t he really asking: ” will Lucic contribute as much next year”?

    – If looking at his PP vs 5×5 as proof he’s going down next year, that’s a hard sell IMO

    – OK, enough on Lucic for me. My last word is that I was “told” by some that the loss of Hall was the loss of a “driver”, and Larsson and $1.8MM of cap was a terrible trade and Chia was vulnerable to losing his job over, and that Lucic is way worse than Hall, and we will regret it

    – Yet the team scored a lot more, the PP was a lot better, the D was a lot better , our team was better, and Lucic mattered a lot to his team and his coaches.

    – And Lucic is only 3 years older & track record of playing full-seasons: that’s not luck. I get Hall has some awesome elite stats to point to and is an awesome player: wish we had both, and wish we had traded Ebs for Larsson instead of Hall: I bet Chia does too, but it doesn’t work that way

  28. Centre of attention says:

    Also, happy Birthday to Slepyshev.

    #TeamSleppy

  29. Ryan says:

    Couple thoughts on Lucic…

    1. During the regular season, I think that part of his PP success was due to the lack of abuse Lucic took for parking himself in front of the net. No one touched him like at lol. Guys like Ryan Smyth weathered extreme abuse for standing in the crease on the PP. No one touched Lucic which was interesting.

    2. I was surprised during the playoffs whether it was a big hit or a cheap shot, Getzlaf seamed to get the better of Looch who had no response or pushback to Getzlaf (with the exception of IIRC finishing a check in game 6)

    3. Agree that he needs to spend the offseason training with Maroon’s guy to gain mobility.

    4. Maroon sort of ate his lunch in terms of being that guy that was hard to play against. Lucic has lost a bit of that edge that made him fearful to other players. I’m not saying I agree with it, but he went from being that guy who would do whatever it takes to win like running a goalie or whatever to more of a placid guy.

  30. flyfish1168 says:

    With Lucic we are a tougher and harder team to play against. With Milan, Pat and Zack we have toughness in numbers at the forward position. Without Milan and only the other two I don’t think we would intimated other teams and make the playoffs.JMHO

  31. season not played says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!

    – LT says “Lucic was fabulous on the power play”

    – 25% of scoring happens on the power play. Power-plays are approximately 10% of the total minutes in a game

    – Fancy stats seem to “dismiss” players who score on the power-play, which I’ve always found odd

    – Taylor Hall scored 4 PPG goals with the Oil.Lucic scored 12 PPG this year.I see many posters discrediting Lucic “because he got lots of points on the PP” (Hall scored 7 this year)

    – Scoring on the PP matters.It is too easily dismissed

    – Lucic is 28 (3 years older than Hall): He scored 3 more goals than Taylor Hall.His “intangibles” are valued by his teammates and coaches.Virtually every fancy-stat poster said Hall >>> Lucic

    – I’m glad we have Lucic.He’s frustrating, as was Hall with his Bambi skating, falling as he raced with the puck through the zone, getting injured all the time: paralizing our offencewhen he did

    + 1

  32. season not played says:

    Woogie63:
    How do we measure the extra toughness the balance of the team feels with 27 on this team.

    “Milan is man Strength” Zach Kassian on after hours

    It’s cliché but, everyone plays a couple inches taller and a few pounds heavier.

    This team is monumentally harder to play against and Lucic is a part of it. I would say, not coincidentally, so is Larsson.

  33. AT8 says:

    Let’s be honest here, no team in the NHL is going to be intimidated even if you had 10 lucic’s on your team, because it doesn’t matter how big and tough you are in the NHL as long as we still have the instigator penalty. The reason why guys like Keslar can go around and take liberties is because they know if we retaliate we get a instigating penalty. The NHL say they like the toughness but they have turned the game into a new generation where dirt bags can go stir things up and not have to face anyone straight up.

    I’m not saying allow jumping a guy for making a clean hard hit, I’m saying if your going to skate around and hack and whack, basically mug a superstar, you should have to fight when someone asks you to fight.

    They should adjust the instigator penalty to be called only if someone starts a fight after a clean hit.

    If someone’s going around and using his stick like a sword or cross checking in the ribs and lower back, the refs should let it go if someone rushes him.

    The refs can see the interactions that happen on the ice, they’ve watched and officated enough games and know who the dirty players are. I’m sure they can deferentiate between a clean hit the leads to a fight and a fight starting to keep dirt bags in check.

  34. AT8 says:

    As far as lucic’s play

    I’ll make a bet with anyone he’s going to have a break out year in 2017/2018

    Your references for age, salary, player comparables, losing a step is all irrelevant

    Training is more advanced these days, nutrient is more advanced, trainers these days have a lot more technology to help players. most players are top athletes, and lucic is a pretty fit athlete.

    Instead of comparing him to a Dustin brown, compare him to a maroon, look at what maroon has done with his career, changing his eating and training habits gave him a extra step.

    Lucic is a professional he will make the changes.

    lets not forget, lucic had to move his family from The east coast to the west. He has two very young daughters. And after moving from coast to coast he up roots them again but moving north to a different country this time. That’s a lot of stress on your family. And let’s not forget Milan lost his father in 2015 just two months before being traded to LA . The death happened suddenly and it was a Suicide.

    http://www.foxsports.com/nhl/story/boston-bruins-los-angeles-kings-milan-lucic-father-s-suicide-111715

    A lot of people get caught up in performances and what players aren’t doing on ice, and they pick at every little detail but they forget the players have a human side as well.

    I don’t care how much money you make or how good you are at something, losing your father who has been around for you through out your career so suddenly and to those circumstances, that’s going to affect the way you play the game.

    To the haters and the non believers

    Let’s see you put up back to back 20 goal seasons and back to back 50 point seasons after having your second daughter, then losing your dad to a suicde out of no where. And sprinkle in changing from bostons system to LA and then to Edmontons system.

    #27 has the heart of a lion for battling through his loss, most menwould fall off a cliff and be overwhelmed with devastation.

    Milan has yet to show all of himself to Edmonton.

    When that day comes you’ll understand why chia gave him that contract.

    RIP to Dobro Lucic

  35. AT8 says:

    And a memo to those who still can’t get over Hall for Larsson

    If you can’t understand a hockey trade (need for need)

    There is no winner or loser – one team gets the defence they need and the other gets the offence they need

    ————

    On the flip side when you make a trade like the Chris pronger to Anaheim , then you have a winner and loser. When you move a Norris trophy D man for chump change and picks you lose because your getting assets and the team getting the actual stud defencmen.

    ————-

    When both teams get what they want and benifit then it’s called a hockey trade

    When one team gets spare parts for the best defencemen you have a clear cut loser

  36. stevezie says:

    AT8,

    I think Lucic is one of the more unique players of the millennium, continues to do some things well, and may well be a fine human being (i really don’t know).

    But define “breakout” and you’ve got yourself a bet.

  37. frjohnk says:

    Im no hater of Lucic. Actually I have heard quite a few 2nd hand accounts of Lucic and I can say he is a fantastic individual. I have always said I have like the Lucic get.

    But this is a numbers blog and I happen to be a numbers guy in the basement.

    The issue that many have with Lucic is with his even strength play. Many errant passes and slow boots many nights. He had a poor year at even strength. Like I said earlier, he had a 24 game stretch mid season in which he scored 4 points. And when a fanboy like Spector says he had to be better at even strength,( he said this on one of the telecasts during this slump) you know that he was not playing well.

    This is Lucic’s 5 on 5 scoring over the last 7 years

    Season(s) Points/60
    2016-17__1.22
    2015-16__2.04
    2014-15__1.69
    2013-14 __2.03
    2012-13__2.08
    2011-12__2.56
    2010-11__2.3

    And if we look at some of his significant linemates,( mostly his centers) this is how Lucic scored.

    In 451 minutes with McDavid, Lucic scored 1.42 pts per 60.
    In 431 minutes with RNH, Lucic scored 1.11 pts per 60.
    In 209 minutes with Draisaitl, Lucic scored 1.14 pts per 60.

    He did shoot 8.4% at 5 on 5. His average over the 6 years prior was 13.8%. So he had EBERLE luck while shooting while at 5 on 5.

    This is Lucic’s scoring on the PP over the same time frame

    Season(s) Points/60
    2016-17__7.04
    2015-16__2.83
    2014-15__3.27
    2013-14__3.9
    2012-13__1.34
    2011-12__3.07
    2010-11__3.98

    A few numbers to look at along with PP scoring

    He shot 25% on the PP. His 6 years prior was 10%.
    He was in on 68% of the PP points while on the ice. Average was 52%. McDavid’s IPP this year was 62%, just for reference.
    He shot 13.5 times per 60. Average in 7 years was 8.6.

    So he was shooting more and more of those shots were going in and he was getting a larger percentage of the points while on the PP.

    – I dont think all of his PP points are repeatable. But if they are, thats great.

    My guess is that Lucic comes into camp lighter and quicker. He ends up playing better and scoring better at 5 on 5 while his power play points take a dip.

  38. anjinsan says:

    Looch’s contract should have had performance requirements. As is, it was a large overpay because of the term. If the game were on international ice, as it really should be given how big, fast, fit, well-coaching and systems-playing the players are now, Looch wouldn’t have the same value.

  39. regwald says:

    After the season ended I saw a post on Twitter that claimed Lucic played with a bulging disc in his back which might account for his awkward plays and possession issues with the puck.

    Personally I felt his season was disappointing and there were way too many nights he was a passenger in the 82 games. I expected more. A lot more.

  40. AT8 says:

    stevezie:
    AT8,

    I think Lucic is one of the more unique players of the millennium, continues to do some things well, and may well be a fine human being (i really don’t know).

    But define “breakout” and you’ve got yourself a bet.

    Thank you for asking for clarification.

    What I meant by breakout for lucic was him producing more on a consistent basis

    My prediction is if he plays a full season give or take a few games

    If he stays healthy he will have a 30/30/60 season for 2017/2018

    I’m not going to dive in to fancy stats just a 30 goal 30 assist season

    Let’s not get too outrageous with the bet, shall we make it a bottle of scotch around $100-$120 range of the losers choice?

  41. Pechetr says:

    I will take Lucic at 6 mil over Eberle at 6 mil all day every day. Lucic will be better next year for sure. Loooooooooooch!!!!!

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