TOP 150 2017

This is my final list, 150 strong. I will re-post it in early June, under the headline “Here Comes The Sun”. It’s a tradition I began in 2015 (McDavid draft) and it gives me easy search access. Since the June post is going to be built around Edmonton’s trends and possible strategy, allow me to get the nuts and bolts out of the way today.

  • I use NHLE as a strong guiding light. Christian Roatis has my current conversation calculator here.
  • My list list rewards offense heavily, and the most gifted offensive players will be at the top.
  • Players with a range of skills usually do well, but there is a fine line between a two-way player and a checking future. I think teams spend a lot of first-round picks on future checkers, this list tries to send them into the second round.
  • The list does not give high numbers to players who have a lot of their value tied up in the defensive side of the game. Some of the names who appear as first-round selections on other lists are not inside my top 100.
  • Goalies are graded (almost exclusively) by save percentage, although success over more than one season has terrific value. Prevailing  wisdom counts as well.
  • I view Bob McKenzie’s list as the draft Bible, but my list does not factor in any scouts input beyond the obvious. (His final list won’t be out when I post mine).
  • Craig Button’s list has high value for me, I like the fact he has the courage of his convictions.
  • I pay attention to Red Line Report, Corey Pronman, Kirk Luedeke (also Red Line), McKeen’s Steve Kournianos, Grant McCagg, Tom Hunter, The Black Book, Scott Wheeler, Brock Otten, Adam Sherren. If I forgot you on this list, dm me and I will add. I used to use Cody Nickolet for WHL, but he went and got himself hired.
  • I do not copy their rankings (this should be fairly obvious if you look at the rankings of the scouting services) and don’t actively pursue their rankings until early June, when Red Line is released—my list will be complete by that time.
  • I have found Simon Boisvert (frequent guest on Lowdown) to be an increasingly valuable resource and his input has impacted this list.
  • Mark Edwards Black Book is a brilliant reference. His release last year has been very useful for this year’s draft.
  • It is very rare for me to rank a defenseman No. 1 overall. Last time? Victor Hedman, 2009.
  • My list is not designed to compete with, or copy any of the sources mentioned above. Organizations like Red Line, ISS, McKeens, Future Considerations and others employ actual scouts who observe, evaluate and project. None of their work is contained here.
  • This list uses math, previous draft trends (the CHL delivers enormous talent to the NHL), various pieces of anecdotal information volunteered by scouts and observers along the way, and an educated guess based on watching these things unfold since 1971.
  • Grant McCagg has been doing this for years and has a brilliant new site. You should check it out.

TOP 150, 2017

  1. (1) RC Nolan Patrick, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). A complete talent but not an elite one.
  2. (2) L Nico Hischier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). A more dynamic offensive player than Patrick.
  3. (3) R Owen Tippett, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). He covers 3 important categories (size, speed, sniper).
  4. (4) L Elias Pettersson, Timra (Swe-1). Impressive talent, very skilled.
  5. (5) RD Timothy Liljegren, Rogle (Swe Jr). He is a mobile 2-way D with impressive skill.
  6. (6) LC Casey Mittelstadt, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). Speed and skill, NHLE.
  7. (7) RD Cale Makar, Brooks Bandits (AJHL). Fast, exceptional puck-moving acumen.
  8. (8) RC Cody Glass, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Complete skill set (NHLE: 30).
  9. (9) RC Gabriel Vilardi, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Creative C with size, NHLE (33).
  10. (10) L Eeli Tolvanen, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Plus skater, NHL shot and release.
  11. (11) R Kailer Yamamoto, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart, elusive, offensive.
  12. (12) RC Nick Suzuki, Owen Sound Attack (OHL).  Skill and creativity, a little one dimensional.
  13. (13) RC Robert Thomas, London Knights (OHL). Speedy forward, creative.
  14. (14) LC Lias Andersson, Linkoping (SHL). Throwback 2-way C, aggressive, quick. 5.11, 200.
  15. (15) LD Miro Heiskanen, HIFK (Sm-Liiga). Puck-mover, excellent vision/speed.
  16. (16) RC Martin Necas, Brno (Czech). High speed skill W, just 5.11.
  17. (17) LD Juuso Valimaki, Tri-City Americans (WHL). A big two-way D, smart, creative.
  18. (18) R Klim Kostin, Balashikha (MHL). Giant winger, good offense. Injured.
  19. (19) C Michael Rasmussem, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Big C, physical, good skater.
  20. (20) LD Nicholas Hague, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Rangy, aggressive, emerging offense.
  21. (21) R Kole Lind, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Speedy W with skill. Good Oil option.
  22. (22) LC Alexei Lipanov, Dyanmo Balashikha (VHL). Impressive 2-way resume.
  23. (23) L Kristian Vesalainen, Frolunda (SHL). Big W, skilled, strong, can play L or R.
  24. (24) RD Conor Timmins, SSE Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, reads plays well, excellent passer.
  25. (25) LC Ryan Poehling, St. Cloude State (NCAA). Big skill C with an offensive reputation.
  26. (28) LC Joshua Norris, USNDTP (USHL). Two-way C showing good offense.
  27. (27) RC Ivan Lodnia, Erie Otters (OHL). Small skill C, great skater.
  28. (26) RC Morgan Geekie, Tri-City Americans (WHL). C w/2-way rep and emerging offense.
  29. (37) RC Scott Reedy, USNDTP (USHL). Center with speed, range of skills, dynamic.
  30. (30) LD Erik Brannstrom, HV71 (SHL). Undersized skill defender, outstanding skater.
  31. (29) L Matthew Strome, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Strong 2-way W, offensive potential.
  32. (31) C Mason Shaw, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). Small skill C, terrific skills.
  33. (32) R Nicholas Henry, Regina Pats (WHL). Emerging scorer. Not fast.
  34. (33) LC Jaret-Anderson Dolan, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Small, very quick skater and plus skill.
  35. (34) L Nikita Popugaev, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Big, good skater, plus shot, passer.
  36. (35) G Jake Oettinger, Boston University (NCAA). 35gp, 2.11 .927. Fabulous numbers.
  37. (36) R Aleksi Heponiemi, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Cerebral W with skill, anticipation.
  38. (38) G Mike DiPietro, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). 51gp, 2.35 .917.
  39. (40) RC Joni Ikonen, Frolunda (Swe SuperElite). Small skill center with good speed.
  40. (41) LD Noel Hoefenmeyer, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Fairly complete defender, good D and some offense.
  41. (42) LD Uro Vaakanainen, JYP (Sm-Liiga). Fast two-way blue with a good shot.
  42. (43) L Isaac Ratcliffe, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big winger, great skater, some skill.
  43. (44) LC Evan Barratt, USNDTP (USHL). Small finesse center with substantial skills.
  44. (45) LC Jake Leschyshyn, Regina Pats (WHL). Quality two-way C.
  45. (46) LC Shane Bowers, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). Impressive two-way C, plus skill.
  46. (47) C Jesper Boqvist, Brynas (SHL). Average size, good speed and skill.
  47. (48) R Stelio Mattheos, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). Excellent skater, heavy shot.
  48. (49) LC Morgan Frost, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, skilled, and emerging.
  49. (50) RD Henri Jokiharju, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Smooth skating Finn OD.
  50. (68) LD Mario Ferraro, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL). Undersized OD with real offensive potential.
  51. (39) RD Cal Foote, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Huge D, awkward skater, good passer, tough.
  52. (51) L Ostap Safin, Sparta Praha (Cze). Big forward, good skater, has plus skills. Nice range.
  53. (52) R Adam Ruzicka, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Big (6.04, 202) forward who plays intelligent game.
  54. (53) RD Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL). Two-way D, some nice boxcars.
  55. (60) L Jason Robertson, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Big winger with a good shot.
  56. (54) RC Alexander Chmelevski, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Impressive skills, outststanding TP game.
  57. (55) L Alex Formenton, London Knights (OHL). An absolute burner, has some skill.
  58. (56) L Grant Mismash, USNDTP (USHL). Physical winger with some skill.
  59. (57) RD Ian Mitchell, Spruce Grove Saints (AJHL). Undersized, mobile two-way defender.
  60. (58) F Andrey Altybarmakyan, St.Petersburg (MHL).  The math is strong on this one.
  61. (59) LC Marcus Davidsson, Djurgardens (SHL). Two-way center has some offense, nice range of skills.
  62. (61) RD Kale Fleury, Kootenay Ice (WHL). Fascinating prospect. Haydn’s brother. Range of skills.
  63. (62) LD Jack Rathbone, Dexter School (USHS). A bullet on skates, very skilled.
  64. (63) L Zach Gallant, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Fast skater, intelligent player, boxcars moving.
  65. (64) L Jonah Gadjovich, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Emerging PF, 40-goal man. Average speed.
  66. (65) RC Jack Studnicka, Oshawa Generals (OHL). Range of skills, quality offense. No buzz.
  67. (66) R Lukas Elvenes, Rogle (SuperElite). Highly skilled winger, terrific hands.
  68. (67) L Mackenzie Entwistle, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Big winger, who can skate, check, some skill.
  69. (69) RD Artyom Minulin, Swfit Current Broncos (WHL). Big defender with emerging skills.
  70. (70) L Maxime Comtois, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). Skilled, good size, skating average.
  71. (71) RD Eemeli Rasanen, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Giant defender with skill, mobility.
  72. (72) LD Max Gildon, USNDTP (USHL). Size, speed, skill. Inconsistent or he would be higher.
  73. (73) L Jacob Tortora, USNDTP (USHL). He is a burner and he is skilled and he is small.
  74. (74) G Keith Petruzzeli, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL). An actual giant goalie. Luedeke is on him.
  75. (75) C Kevin Hancock, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Draft re-entry having a fine offensive season.
  76. (76) LD Josh Brook, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Mobile, dependable, emerging. Could be a find.
  77. (77) G Daniil Tarasov, Ufa (MHL). Tall thin goalie impressed at U18s.
  78. (78) R Emil Oksanen, Espoo (Mestis). Skilled winger, great shot, he can scoot.
  79. (79) RC Nathan Schnarr, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big center with speed, a little shy offensively.
  80. (80) LC Jordy Bellerive, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Undersized, nifty and aggressive F with skill.
  81. (81) LD Robin Salo, Sport Vaasa (SML). Two-way defender, mature.
  82. (82) LD Cameron Crotty, Brockville Braves (CCHL). Intelligent two-way defender, great passer.
  83. (83) RD Dylan Coghlan, Tri-City Americans (WHL). 2-way defender, good skater, spiking offensively.
  84. (84) L Filip Chytal, HC Zlin (Czech). Two-way C, skilled, intriguing prospect.
  85. (85) C Fabian Zetterlund, Farjestad (SuperElite). Smart C, great shot, he is skilled.
  86. (86) LC Antoine Morand, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). Very small, very skilled.
  87. (87) LD Markus Phillips, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Undersized two-way defender improved 16-17.
  88. (88) L Pavel Koltygin, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL). Two-way winger.
  89. (89) RC Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). 1998 born, too much skill to pass on.
  90. (90) LD Dylan Samberg, Hermantown High (USHS). Big (6.03, 190) mobile blue. Offense a mystery.
  91. (91) G Olle Eriksson Ek, Farjestads (SuperElite). Big goalie with a good track record.
  92. (92) LD Clayton Phillips, Fargo Force (USHL). Undersized OD, speed, great shot. Draft and follow.
  93. (93) W Jonas Rondberg, Vaxjo (Swe Jrs). Smart offensive winger with plus skills, lacks top end finish.
  94. (94) RD Reilly Walsh, Chicago Steel (USHL). Mobile puck mover, great passer and a plus shot.
  95. (95) L Ryan Hughes, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). 5.08, July 1999, 55 pts/65 games.
  96. (96) L Ivan Kosorenkov, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). Undersized, 34 goals by getting inside.
  97. (97) L Rickard Hugg, Leksands (SuperElite). Intelligent two-way winger, playmaking skill.
  98. (98) LC Austen Keating, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Offensive center, more consistent this season.
  99. (99) LC Ben Jones, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL). I think he might be a sleeper. Playmaker.
  100. (100) LC Ivan Chekhovich, Baie-Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL). Undersized skill forward, point-per-game.
  101. (101) G Maxim Zhukov, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). Solid .912SP.
  102. (102) R Aatu Luusuaniemi, Karpat (Jr. Sm-Liiga). Winger with skill, excellent boxcars, zero buzz.
  103. (103) L Joel Teasdale, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL). Smart, skilled, good speed.
  104. (104) C Igor Svyrev, Magnitogorsk (MHL). Skill center, impressive offense.
  105. (105) RC Greg Meireles, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). Smaller forward, speedy, responsible.
  106. (106) RC Kyle Olson, Tri-City Americans (OHL). Small and skilled, rising.
  107. (107) LD Jocktan Chainey, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Good skater, can move the puck.
  108. (108) L Ryan Moore, Flint Firebirds (OHL). Small and very skilled.
  109. (109) RD Filip Westerlund, Frolunda (SHL). Impressive passing skills, some chaos on D.
  110. (110) RD Luke Martin, Michigan (NCAA). Big, mobile defender plays intelligent game. Not a lot of buzz.
  111. (111) LD Antoine Crete-Belzile, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL). Two-way defender, injury issues.
  112. (NR) LD David Farrance, USNDTP (USHL). Mobile, clever D, undersized. Rising.
  113. (112) G Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, HPK (Jr. Sm-Liiga). Impressive size and good results.
  114. (113) L Vladimir Kuznetsov, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). Good skater, skilled, with size. 1998.
  115. (NR) RC Emil Bemstrom, Leksands (SuperElite). Small, fast winger with skill.
  116. (114) RD Adam Thilander, North Bay Battalion (OHL). Impressive skills, could be massive value.
  117. (115) L Macauley Carson, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). A 30-goal season in a strong league.
  118. (116) LC Brayden Burke, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Lots of skill, undersized and 20.
  119. (NR) F Pavel Shen, Marmonty Yugry (MHL). Small, skilled, August 1999.
  120. (117) LD Tyler Inamoto, USNDTP (USHL). He is a mobile 6.02, 196 defender.
  121. (NR) R Sami Moilanen, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). Small buzzsaw who can score goals.
  122. (118) LC Skyler McKenzie, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Small F (5.07), very skilled.
  123. (NR) F Alexei Toropchenko, Balashikha (MHL). Size and speed, some offense.
  124. (119) LC Paul Washe, Fargo Force (USHL). Two-way C, a little shy offensively.
  125. (120) LD Michael Anderson, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). Strong, good speed, defense.
  126. (121) R Artur Tyanulin, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Skill F posted strong season.
  127. (122) R Austin Pratt, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Power winger who can skate. Offense still uncertain.
  128. (123) G Alexander Samoilov, Armiya Moskva (MHL). .928SP, blossomed this year.
  129. (NR) G Matt Villalta, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). .918SP, June 1999.
  130. (124) R Jonathan Davidsson, Djurgaden (SHL). Impressive skill W, I’ve ranked him 3 times!
  131. (125) RD Juho Korhonen, Karpat (Jr. Sm-Liiga). Small and very skilled puck mover. Great passes.
  132. (NR) R Brett Davis, Kootenay Ice (WHL). Good size, impressive offense for a June 1999.
  133. (NR) LD Nate Knoepke, USNDTP (USHL). Two-way defender with good size.
  134. (NR) LD Dmitri Samorukov, Guelph Storm (OHL). Giant defenseman, two-way type.
  135. (NR) LC Jacob Peterson, Frolunda (SuperElit). Two-way C under the radar.
  136. (NR) RD Brady Lyle, North Bay (OHL). Big two-way defender.
  137. (NR) RC Maxime Fortier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). He is 5.10, very skilled.
  138. (NR) RD Gustav Lindstrom, Almtuna IS (Allsvenskan). 6.02, 187 two-way defender.
  139. (NR) LD Dylan Seitz, Kitchener (OHL). Big PF, scoring potential a question.
  140. (NR) L Ryan Peckford, Victoria Royals (WHL). Good skater, terrific shot.
  141. (NR) RD August Berg, Brynas (SuperElite). Speedy defender with skill.
  142. (NR) RC Liam Hawel, Guelph Storm (OHL). Giant (6.05, 179) C improved offense after trade.
  143. (NR) LC Bryce Misley, Oakville Blades (OJHL). Skill C with good size. Good speed. Sleeper?
  144. (NR) LC Jesse Koskenkorva, Karpat (Jr. Sm-Liiga). Two-way forward with speed, some offense.
  145. (NR) L German Poddubnyi, Erie (OHL). Big PF could be fine draft & follow.
  146. (NR) G Adam Ahman, HV71 (SuperElite). 34gp, 2.30 .927. Small for modern goalie.
  147. (NR) R Lane Zablocki, Regina Pats (OHL). Two-way W with skill, kind of a throwback player.
  148. (NR) R Bobby Dow, Kemptville 73s (CCHL). Impressive offense at lower levels.
  149. (NR) G Veini Vehvilainen, Jyp (Sm-Liiga). A .912SP, he has a solid resume and is draft re-entry.
  150. RD Martin Bodak, Tappara (Jr. Sm-Liiga). Mobile two-way D who is a good passer.

OILERS AT THE 2017 DRAFT

  • First Round: No. 22 overall
  • Third Round: No. 82 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall
  • Fourth Round: No. 115 overall
  • Fifth Round: No. 126 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen)
  • Fifth Round: No. 146 overall
  • Sixth Round: No. 177 overall
  • Seventh Round: No. 208 overall

OILERS MOCK! (NO. 11)

  • First Round: No. 22 overall—R Kole Lind, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). He is a fine skater and one of the best scorers in the draft. He has a big shot along with a quick release, and that’s a perfect fit for Edmonton. I’d give money to know his shot total for this season.
  • Third Round: No. 82 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)—LD Mario Ferraro, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL). He is a great skater, passer and looks to be the prototype for the modern game. The key is that he is aggressive and can play the defensive side of the pick. May have to trade up in order to get him.
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall—L Jonah Gadjovich, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Emerging PF, a big time junior scorer and a volume shooter (275 shots in 60gp, averaging 4.58 per game). Uses his size well and is a load. Speed the only concern, but less of an issue in the third round.
  • Fourth Round: No. 115 overall— RC Emil Bemstrom, Leksands (SuperElite). Small, fast c-w with skill. He is a shooter and the Oilers need to grab several. He is also the first center in this mock draft.
  • Fifth Round: No. 126 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen)—RC Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). There’s too much skill to pass on him. Scored 50 goals, turned 19 in January and plays center. Creative player who can score goals. Skating has improved in leaps and bounds, maybe he’s this generation’s Kyle Brodziak.
  • Fifth Round: No. 146 overall—F Alexei Toropchenko, Balashikha (MHL). Size and speed, some offense.
  • Sixth Round: No. 177 overall—LC Jacob Peterson, Frolunda (SuperElit). Two-way C under the radar.
  • Seventh Round: No. 208 overall—G Veini Vehvilainen, Jyp (Sm-Liiga). A .912SP, he has a solid resume and is draft re-entry.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

43 Responses to "TOP 150 2017"

  1. Rondo says:

    Using your top 150 Oilers would run up and take Kristian Vesalainen

  2. sliderule says:

    Before we give up on Puljujarvi consider this.

    There is another euro forward who scored almost identical in AHL only it was in his draft plus two year.

    His name is Forsberg and Washington must wish they hadn’t given up on him so quick.

  3. Stud Muffin says:

    I think your list needs to start dinging Overagegers as well.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Stud Muffin:
    I think your list needs to start dinging Overagegers as well.

    Depends on the year. Certainly not this one, the 1999 talent isn’t deep enough.

  5. Stud Muffin says:

    sliderule,

    I literally pm’d him the Forsberg comparison last night and posted it on the blog yesterday morning

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow, Lowetide, it boggles my mind that any person, other than someone who’s full time job has something to do with amateur hockey, could possibly be able to put together such a list. Great job!

    With respect to Button’s list, is it “Courage of Convictions” or does he make a point of making some peculiar rankings in order to create controversy?

  7. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Wow, Lowetide, it boggles my mind that any person, other than someone who’s full time job has something to do with amateur hockey, could possibly be able to put together such a list. Great job!

    With respect to Button’s list, is it “Courage of Convictions” or does he make a point of making some peculiar rankings in order to create controversy?

    Well, I think that’s part of scouting, no? I think the ideal NHL scouting department would take the math and make a list. THEN you ask your scouts about these players (speed, et cetera) and then you hopefully have some way to measure intelligence and do background checks on them (parents, friends, billets).. Certainly for the early ones.

    As for the work I do, I used to do this without publishing, then found hf and here. The math now makes for a more interesting list, and conversation.

    Either way, thanks for the compliment!

  8. OF17 says:

    LT, have you ever revisited your draft rankings to see how they panned out? Ie was the guy you’d’ve taken at 17 better than the guy that actually went there. One complication is you’ve gone much more in depth into the rankings in the last few years, so I don’t think it would be fair to compare your 2010 rankings to your 2017 ones. It would be interesting to see how you did though.

  9. MrEd says:

    Interesting tipping point? I’m hoping that we do not have a player that we can “count on” to contribute in a draft +! season for a while. Makes for a much more honest discussion about “range”. Also makes the decisions over signings the next few years that much more important.

  10. Jethro Tull says:

    I don’t think Button does it to court controversy, more that he gives an alternative point of view of why some teams go walkabout. Also gives a ‘what we may have missed’ about a prospect.

  11. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – Great post LT

    – I swear Pouzar: LT’s dream job is not head coach, or GM, or owner: he wants to be a scout, unearthing gems in the far reaches of the world. He’s a draft mudder! And I love it…Thanks LT

    – And by the way, the prose this morning about your Mom was top drawer. Mom’s of that generation were different: they came from a different time, they didn’t want to be your “buddy”, they dressed different, they were just not the same vintage. There is far less “generational divide” these days than ever before: it’s a fun topic for me to talk about, and your apt description of your relationship with you Mom was a snippet of this.

    – All the best to your family LT, and to all the mother’s associated with the mostly ruffians who frequent this joint!

  12. Lowetide says:

    OF17:
    LT, have you ever revisited your draft rankings to see how they panned out? Ie was the guy you’d’ve taken at 17 better than the guy that actually went there. One complication is you’ve gone much more in depth into the rankings in the last few years, so I don’t think it would be fair to compare your 2010 rankings to your 2017 ones. It would be interesting to see how you did though.

    Well, the truth is that I only remember the hits. 🙂 I am a fan, so when someone I like a lot gets picked (Ethan Bear, had him at No. 38) and gets chosen later, I feel good when that player works out. However, I didn’t have Caleb Jones on my list at all! So, I suspect there is more to learn about the math let alone not being a scout. 🙂

  13. OF17 says:

    Lowetide: Well, the truth is that I only remember the hits. 🙂 I am a fan, so when someone I like a lot gets picked (Ethan Bear, had him at No. 38) and gets chosen later, I feel good when that player works out. However, I didn’t have Caleb Jones on my list at all! So, I suspect there is more to learn about the math let alone not being a scout. 🙂

    Haha totally fair. I still think you’d do pretty well. It’s such an inexact science that we’d expect more misses than hits no matter what. I think you’d have a good chance of outdoing the pros, but revisiting lists you felt good about is the only way to see for sure.

  14. GMB3 says:

    Jesse Puljujarvi did not play again.

    Maybe Columbus’ GM knew something we all didn’t.

  15. Philosophil says:

    LT, Is Tyler Steenbergen this year’s Alex DeBrincat? Smaller forward oozing with skill, passed over in draft year 1. The blog adopts one of these underdog causes every year, and I end up following those players through the system as a result.

  16. OF17 says:

    GMB3:
    Jesse Puljujarvi did not play again.

    Maybe Columbus’ GM knew something we all didn’t.

    Maybe he knew how hard potential 1Cs were to get? It should be noted that Dubois hasn’t exactly lit it up in his draft +1. His PPG went from 1.60 in his draft year to 1.15 this year. Juolevi ran in place with regards to production. We can talk about Tkachuk as a potential pick, but we also would’ve taken Bennett rather than Draisaitl after their draft +1 years. Lots of track left to go, and Puljujarvi has spent almost his entire career playing against people more developed than him. If you need to include him in a trade to get a stud RHD, sure, I can see that making sense, but I still see him developing into a very useful RW in time.

  17. MrEd says:

    JP is a really interesting player. Watching his reels he has that something. Watching his reels he also has that something that requires that situation.
    Where we’re at? Chia has a player.

  18. Lowetide says:

    GMB3:
    Jesse Puljujarvi did not play again.

    Maybe Columbus’ GM knew something we all didn’t.

    I watched that Finland game. With due respect to Finland’s coach, they aren’t deep enough to sit JP.

  19. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: I watched that Finland game. With due respect to Finland’s coach, they aren’t deep enough to sit JP.

    A systems coach who want players to play the system…I would guess. Jesse’s first time with the national team, arrived late, youngest player on the team with less experience in the system, etc.

    Maybe they are also preparing for the Olympics, and making lineup decisions based on that. Basically the last warmup tournament. Want to give the ice time to players who are going to be available.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Philosophil:
    LT, Is Tyler Steenbergen this year’s Alex DeBrincat? Smaller forward oozing with skill, passed over in draft year 1. The blog adopts one of these underdog causes every year, and I end up following those players through the system as a result.

    I’d say he is more Kyle Brodziak. Jason Robertson might be a DeBrincat-type, or Gadjovich.

  21. Lowetide says:

    godot10: A systems coach who want players to play the system…I would guess.Jesse’s first time with the national team, arrived late, youngest player on the team with less experience in the system, etc.

    Maybe they are also preparing for the Olympics, and making lineup decisions based on that.Basically the last warmup tournament.Want to give the ice time to players who are going to be available.

    Great points, and makes sense.

  22. MrEd says:

    JP just might be a Nail clone with size, strength and skating capability.
    What’s left?
    Only that last, most remarkable thing. Attitude.

  23. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Since reading the Avs were open to offers on most players I am intrigued with the idea of what it might take to get MacKinnon. I’d play him with Connor. Would Nurse Eberle do it? They need D, Nurse deoesnt need expansion protection and Eberle replaces the offense, they will draft a centre this year.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    Can’t wait to watch Bear in the Memorial Cup next Saturday afternoon.

    Fantastic play by Bear on the tieing goal.

  25. Todd Macallan says:

    TBirds off to the Mem Cup after OT win. Bear with 2A in the last 5 mins of the 3rd to put the game into OT. Excited to watch him play on an even bigger stage.

    Watching the handshakes, Bear’s L hand is ridiculously bandaged up, not even sure how he holds his stick, let alone dominates the series.

  26. Rondo says:

    2 American teams in the Memorial Cup

  27. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Since reading the Avs were open to offers on most players I am intrigued with the idea of what it might take to get MacKinnon. I’d play him with Connor. Would Nurse Eberle do it? They need D, Nurse deoesnt need expansion protection and Eberle replaces the offense, they will draft a centre this year.

    Taylor Hall couldn’t win without a defense. Taylor Hall and Connor McDavid couldn’t win without a defense. Nathan MacKinnon and Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog couldn’t win without a defense. So why do you expect that the result will be different with McDavid and MacKinnon without a defense?

    Sekera had the two healthiest years of his career with the Oilers. Klefbom has had just two healthy seasons in his career.

  28. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: Taylor Hall couldn’t win without a defense. Taylor Hall and Connor McDavid couldn’t win without a defense.Nathan MacKinnon and Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog couldn’t win without a defense.So why do you expect that the result will be different with McDavid and MacKinnon without a defense?

    Sekera had the two healthiest years of his career with the Oilers. Klefbom has had just two healthy seasons in his career.

    Something has to be given to get something good. Despite Nurses potential at this point the team would be losing a third pairing defender and decent scorer and gaining an elite talent right shot centre right winger.

    Not exactly a devastating loss short term, and also replaceable.

  29. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Something has to be given

    So you would rather effectively reverse the Hall trade and start losing again because the defense would be too weak.

    MacKinnon cannot win even with Landeskog and Duchene with no defense. Hall and McDavid couldn’t win without a defense. Trading Nurse would shred the Oilers defense. One would be left with Larson. Two historically injury-prone D in Sekera and Klefbom. An expensive aging undersized UFA in Russell to sign, and a 2nd year player in Benning.

  30. MrEd says:

    Health is a massive thing.
    I dunno. But was this the healthiest the Oilers have been for a looong while?

  31. Gordies Elbow says:

    Congrats to Ethan Bear.

    Take a look at his stats vs. Kris Letang’s at the same age (Ten year differential, Letang drafted the same year as Crosby, easy to compare.) Right shooter, roughly same size, both won defenceman of their league at the same age, clearly comparable performance.

    Very impressive.

  32. GMB3 says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Congrats to Ethan Bear.

    Take a look at his stats vs. Kris Letang’s at the same age (Ten year differential, Letang drafted the same year as Crosby, easy to compare.) Right shooter, roughly same size, both won defenceman of their league at the same age, clearly comparable performance.

    Very impressive.

    I think Bear’s biggest drawback is his skating isn’t it? Letang is a fairly elite skater, where Bear is trending to be more of an average skate (from the secondhand knowledge I’ve gained, don’t watch a ton of WHL hockey).

    That tends to play a big role in replicating jr offense imo.

  33. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: So you would rather effectively reverse the Hall trade and start losing again because the defense would be too weak.

    MacKinnon cannot win even with Landeskog and Duchene with no defense.Hall and McDavid couldn’t win without a defense.Trading Nurse would shred the Oilers defense.One would be left with Larson.Two historically injury-prone D in Sekera and Klefbom.An expensive aging undersized UFA in Russell to sign, and a 2nd year player in Benning.

    So Nurse is the lynch pin that holds it all together? I thought he was a green young D not suited to anything but third pair yet. There is always risk in trades, to me adding that right shot centre that can run with McDavid adds more than a defensive left side D. And another player to replace Nurse might come internally before Sekera is done, or acquired another way as the left side is easier to fill.

    The question is would that do it? Adding much more wouldn’t be worth it. I thought of the Johansen Jones deal and added Eberle, depends on how Nurse is viewed.

  34. --hudson-- says:

    GMB3: I think Bear’s biggest drawback is his skating isn’t it? Letang is a fairly elite skater, where Bear is trending to be more of an average skate (from the secondhand knowledge I’ve gained, don’t watch a ton of WHL hockey).

    That tends to play a big role in replicating jr offense imo.

    Could you compare him to Shea Theodore? I believe they both played for Seattle and put up similar numbers

  35. MrEd says:

    GMB3,

    Skating vs. the stick. Gamesmanship?

  36. Gordies Elbow says:

    GMB3,

    From watching him in the WHL, not something I’ve really noticed. (Huge Oil Kings fan, though, biased for LB, MM, GR, etc.)

    That said, hate the T-Birds, but didn’t think his mobility is anywhere near an issue. Not a scout, but he seems like a smooth skater, and his positioning is really good.

    Anyone think he has challenges with his skating? If so, why?

  37. Glass says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    This is something I’m wondering too. Given the fact that he’s only like 5’11”, you need to make up for lack of size with speed, and it’s not clear where he fits on that spectrum.

    Is it fair to say that since the average NHL forward is 6’0″/6’1″, that ideally your defensemen is at least a couple inches bigger than the average forward? It’s not an issue for some players, but again… need speed.

  38. sliderule says:

    Lowetide: Depends on the year. Certainly not this one, the 1999 talent isn’t deep enough.

    I like the overagers in sixth and seventh round.

    If you look at past drafts pretty much the only useful players picked in those rounds were overagers.

  39. Whatif says:

    LT< did I miss seeing Tippett in your top 150?

  40. dolenator says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Since reading the Avs were open to offers on most players I am intrigued with the idea of what it might take to get MacKinnon. I’d play him with Connor. Would Nurse Eberle do it? They need D, Nurse deoesnt need expansion protection and Eberle replaces the offense, they will draft a centre this year.

    Nurse isn’t going anywhere. He is the type of player our gm likes and if eberle is going out its not for a similar contract and production. Not sure why so many people are in love with Colorado’s under performers and think we need to over pay for them.

  41. Scungilli Slushy says:

    dolenator: Nurse isn’t going anywhere. He is the type of player our gm likes and if eberle is going out its not for a similar contract and production. Not sure why so many people are in love with Colorado’s under performers and think we need to over pay for them.

    I’m not saying they should trade him. But if they want long term a player that can play with Leon or McDavid and play at their level, provide RHC missing in the top six, he would be a dandy. He has size, speed, and I think is a better player than Duchene.

    My idea has more to do with taking advantage of what is possibly an unstable situation there than wanting Nurse gone. I would do it if the cost was low enough. It replaces Hall in the top six, washes out as Nurse for Larsson which is a trade I’d make every day. If Lucic continues to struggle I’d ask him to waive (somebody will want Lucic) if the cap is an issue.

    Maybe it’s too much for the cap, I find I can make it work with Capfriendly, there is cap when you have Eberle, Pouliot, Fayne and Letestu that can be moved or contracts will expire. Just a thought to amp up the offense, provide a better player for the elite centres, and not create a gaping new hole. Maybe I’m wrong, just spitballing. MacKinnon is very young but well established and can grow with the group.

  42. GCW_69 says:

    So if the Oilers came out of the 3rd round with two of the following would we consider it a good round?

    (79) RC Nathan Schnarr, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big center with speed, a little shy offensively.
    (80) LC Jordy Bellerive, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Undersized, nifty and aggressive F with skill.
    (83) RD Dylan Coghlan, Tri-City Americans (WHL). 2-way defender, good skater, spiking offensively.
    (85) C Fabian Zetterlund, Farjestad (SuperElite). Smart C, great shot, he is skilled.
    (89) RC Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). 1998 born, too much skill to pass on.
    (91) G Olle Eriksson Ek, Farjestads (SuperElite). Big goalie with a good track record.

  43. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69:
    So if the Oilers came out of the 3rd round with two of the following would we consider it a good round?

    (79) RC Nathan Schnarr, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big center with speed, a little shy offensively.
    (80) LC Jordy Bellerive, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Undersized, nifty and aggressive F with skill.
    (83) RD Dylan Coghlan, Tri-City Americans (WHL). 2-way defender, good skater, spiking offensively.
    (85) C Fabian Zetterlund, Farjestad (SuperElite). Smart C, great shot, he is skilled.
    (89) RC Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). 1998 born, too much skill to pass on.
    (91) G Olle Eriksson Ek, Farjestads (SuperElite). Big goalie with a good track record.

    Yes.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca