CHIARELLI

Peter Chiarelli has been nominated for General Manager of the Year in the NHL. Most of Oilers Nation is thrilled, but many are baffled. This is the world we live in.

CHIARELLI’S TRADES 15-16

In his first 12 months as Oilers general manager, PC let the other GM’s know he was open for business. The Reinhart trade is more famous now than any other, those are the breaks because people remember the negative. I think the Cam Talbot trade and the Patrick Maroon trade more than cover the GR deal but it would be unwise to forgive that draft day deal completely. Having those draft picks matriculating in the system now would be a major plus for the Oilers. If you disagree with the ratings, holler. I think the three big deals are correctly marked and the rest is basically superfluous. Note: If you’re going to argue the Schultz deal is a loss, pack a lunch because it’s going to take you all day. Not a chance in hell Mr. Schultz flourishes in Edmonton as he has in Pittsburgh. A more mature team needed to guide him, and did just that thing.

CHIARELLI’S TRADES 16-17

 A far less active season of deals, and no clear wins I can see. A big loss, one that Oilers fans still talk about (I think it’s about half and half but who knows?) coming up on one year later.

You can lose a trade and win the war, or at least I believe you can. If the Oilers win a Stanley Cup under Peter Chiarelli, I’ll give him full credit for it. I think he has been enormously lucky in some ways (McDavid) and extremely unlucky in others (Jeff Petry left Edmonton 53 days before his arrival). If and when the Oilers win a Stanley with Peter Chiarelli as general manager, I will celebrate fully. Since this blog speaks for no one but me, I will only say that it is my sincere hope we can celebrate that day together (should it come to pass).

One thing that we should note: Chiarelli’s first three years in Boston (trade activity). In year one, he made 10 trades for the Bruins (biggest: Brad Boyes dealt for Dennis Wideman). In year two, it was 10 again (biggest: Hannu Toivonen for Carl Soderberg) and in year three it was six (biggest: Matt Hendricks for Johnny Boychuk). PC’s first two seasons in Edmonton have produced 11 and five deals, although he has been extremely active in college free agency (as a means of procurement).

You will read a lot of negatives about Chiarelli being nominated for this award, but the NHL awards general managers (and coaches) who spike in a season. Connor McDavid and Cam Talbot are a big part of these awards, and everyone knows that to be true. I think it’s great that Chiarelli is nominated, hope he wins! So much better than worrying about what former Oiler is going to get the gig this summer (answer: Gretzky). The only man to win the Adams as an Oilers GM? Glen Sather, 1986. He earned more and that’s for sure.

Peter Chiarelli spoke yesterday about the Ducks and Preds defensively. He’s right, these two clubs have fantastic bluelines. Good speed, great passing, mobile, some of them have shots that crush steel. So much venom yesterday about signing Kris Russell and what a horrible idea it would be, and you know if the Oilers had Mattias Ekholm ready to step in I’d agree.

There is no such animal. Kris Russell was hired a year ago because it became clear Griffin Reinhart was unready. If they hire him again, it means Reinhart again is unready. Sometimes when you sign a veteran, it’s because your kids aren’t ready. Now, if the Oilers sign Russell for three years, and they may, there’s a good chance that signing is going to be an albatross by the end of the contract.

MINNESOTA GOES WILD!

I always wait 24 hours to grab items from other people’s work, seems the fair thing to do. It took a lot of will to pass on the opportunity yesterday, as Elliotte Friedman produced a giant 30 Thoughts. The major point of interest: The Wild may be convinced to move Matt Dumba, Mikael Granlund and or Nino Niederreiter. Yes please! I’d take Granlund over the other two men, but that speaks to my preference and maybe you would prefer NN or the blue. Either way, interesting players.

CURRENT CAP SITUATION

Now that the season is over, there are more people looking at the cap/roster for next season and wondering how much room there is going to be this summer. PC used $75 million as a line in the sand yesterday, let’s proceed as if that’s the cap. Here are the current contracts for Edmonton entering summer:

  • That’s nine forwards, six defensemen and two goalies. I think there are at least two players listed who will not be on the opening night roster (Pouliot & Fayne), plus Andrej Sekera will be on LTIR.
  • I am including all bonus numbers here and did not include Jesse Puljujarvi.
  • Six players (five forwards, one defensemen) will be added to this group.
  • RFA’s who are extremely likely to be signed include Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira, Griffin Reinhart and possibly Iiro Pakarinen. Pakarinen is interesting because if he is signed, the Oilers are free to pull back Mark Letestu from the expansion list.
  • UFA’s who are extremely likely to be signed include Kris Russell. I think Eric Gryba, Tyler Pitlick and Jordan Oesterle could also land contracts.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Can Kris Russell pass the dutchie from the left hand side, plus Sekera’s injury and what it means to the Oilers.
  • Eric Fawcett Press Basketball. NBA Draft lottery went last night, Celtics and 76ers were the big winners. Plus who wins a Warriors-Cavs final?
  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst. Steve is doing a complete mock draft (one round per day!) that begins today. We’ll talk about the quality and why he chose his Oilers selection.
  • Fluid guest list, may be sliding some Senators talk into the 11:25 segment.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes till we talk!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

180 Responses to "CHIARELLI"

  1. Rondo says:

    Not all trades are equal. Chia traded a #16 and #33 in the so called strongest draft in over a decade for a player who wasn’t even the best D on his AHL team and had skating issues.

    who knows who they would have pick maybe Joel Ek . Carlo or Aho. But these type of players change the Oilers for a long time.

    Chia never got a backup goalie 2 times got lucky Talbot never got hurt.

    Signed Lucic to a longterm deal in a league that has been getting faster and faster. I like him but not for the price or term.

    Face-offs

  2. Aitch says:

    This is just nit-picking, but how can you grade both Nilsson trades as a win when both times it was for a fifth rounder. If only giving up a fifth for him was a steal, then shouldn’t the same apply when he was shipped out? Shouldn’t that have been a steal for the other GM as well?

  3. N64 says:

    f they hire him again, it means Reinhart again is unready is in Vegas​.

    FTFY

    (and Davey in Montreal)

  4. Lowetide says:

    Aitch:
    This is just nit-picking, but how can you grade both Nilsson trades as a win when both times it was for a fifth rounder. If only giving up a fifth for him was a steal, then shouldn’t the same apply when he was shipped out? Shouldn’t that have been a steal for the other GM as well?

    Sure. It can be a win-win for both general managers. Nilsson was an astute pickup and they offloadd him for reasonable value. I don’t see any issues here.

  5. 36 percent body fat says:

    how well off would this organization be if Barzal and Carlo were in the system.

    This would be true if when MacT was fired, he was actually fired!

    You screw up that bad and you still get to keep a job.

    Say what you will that Chia made the trade, we saw the shot of the brass after Bettman announced the trade and you could see that it was MacT that forced the deal.

    To me he has erased anything he has ever done for this organization with his tenure as a GM and his arrogance while it the position. His open remarks about Schiultz and Dubnyk, contributed to their downfall with the oilers, and his hiring of eakins set the oilers back 2 years and Killed all offensive development Gagner and Yakupov made under Kruger. As well he started the decline of Hemsky.

    Stop paying this man Oilers!

  6. fifthcartel says:

    While the Sekera injury is really unfortunate, I’m not sure it makes signing Russell a guarantee.

    It’s more likely now, the Oilers definitely liked Russell, but that was on a one-year deal. Edmonton might feel like he can help mitigate Sekera’s loss for the ~20-40 games he’s out for, but those extra years are the killer.

    Chiarelli mentioned watching Nashville and Anaheim’s defense and saying they’re not there yet, but signing Russell would bring back the same six on defense, as well as severely limiting their ability to improve on the defense in years 2 and 3 (hypothetically, if it were a three-year deal).

    Betting on internal growth won’t turn their defense into Nashville’s (or Anahiem’s) defense, so I’m wondering if they’re that willing to add another $3.5-4M defenseman for multiple years when they still need to improve.

  7. flea says:

    What do the Oilers have to give up to get Dumba? He’d be a great fit on the blueline

  8. Ducey says:

    I can’t see Phil Larsen for a 5th as anything but a win.

    Larsen was not going to play for EDM, was terrible for VAN, and has now signed overseas.

    A 5th for a player you would lose on waivers? Win, win, win.

    For me the big story yesterday (besides Sekera) was that the Nuge is not going anywhere. He is now “a man” and Chia wants the flexibility to play Leon on the wing. Unless a #2 C drops out of the sky, that means Nuge will be the #2/#3 C next year.

  9. blainer says:

    Very happy with Chia’s moves overall.

    Love that he flew to Minny to chat with Yzerman when the bolts played the wild about maybe trading for Boyle. I am guessing that a third and a fifth was offered or maybe just a third.

    Yzerman decided to trade Boyle to Toronto a team in his division for a 2nd rounder. The leafs then go on to beat out Tampa by one point for the final playoff spot. This is why you DO not trade in your division. No way the ducks are dealing any of their D to Edmonton any time soon.

    I was at Boyle’s homecoming game in Tampa and can tell you the fans loved this player. Dumb ass move by Stevie Y IMO. For me Yzerman better knock it out of the park on that 2nd rounder. Now Boyle never lit it up in T.O. but boy he is a better skater than I thought and a good faceoff guy !!

    Bottom line is Chia never paid to high a price for Boyle or anyone else and I am glad that we still have that 1st rounder. I was pissed he couldn’t do better at the deadline but you have to be very careful.

    Overall I give Chia an A .

    The trade for Hall filled a Major area of need for this team and I am more than good with it.

  10. Ducey says:

    flea:
    What do the Oilers have to give up to get Dumba? He’d be a great fit on the blueline

    Don’t see it happening.

    MIN would only trade him because they don’t want to lose him in expansion. If the Oilers acquired him, they would be in the same boat, and would have to protect 4 D.

    Up front they would protect Leon, Nuge, and Lucic. That would mean they could only protect one of Eberle, Kassian, Maroon, Letestu, et al.

  11. blainer says:

    Ducey: Don’t see it happening.

    MIN would only trade him because they don’t want to lose him in expansion. If the Oilers acquired him, they would be in the same boat, and would have to protect 4 D.

    Up front they would protect Leon, Nuge, and Lucic. That would mean they could only protect one of Eberle, Kassian, Maroon, Letestu, et al.

    Agreed.

    I wonder if we might see a trade for a player/prospect centerman who is also on the cusp of making the pro’s and is expansion exempt.

    That is the move I would be looking at if the Oil are planning on not protecting GR. TMc wants as many centers as he can get and I agree. Much easier to move from center to wing than vice versa.

    Love Russell back at 3.5 for 2 years. Any longer than that cripples this team on the cap. Suspect he signs in Vegas with a 4 or 5 year deal. He might want to stay in his home province but nobody walks away from a possible extra 10 million in guaranteed income.

  12. Woogie63 says:

    Tough crowd on poor Peter, what would the mood be if the Oilers had just missed the play-offs.

    IMO

    Reinhart trade – Oilers were not taking Barzal – we have enough small skilled forward for the next 5 years, the team is going away from that type of player. PC told us yesterday that Reinhart stays past the expansion draft, he will be part of the future.

    Hall trade – Hall and Demers don’t get you to the play-offs this year. I like Hall, exciting to watch, but the alpha male did not get it done, and there is some evidence that his best years are behind him.

  13. Side says:

    Your Chiarelli’s Trades 15-16 and 16-17 tables are crippling me.

    In one table, the results are shown alphabetically (LOSSES: Two) but in the other table the results are shown numerically (LOSSES: 1).

    If next year’s table is shown as alphanumeric I may die.

  14. Chachi says:

    Rondo:
    Not all trades are equal.Chia traded a #16 and #33 in the so called strongest draft in over a decade for a player who wasn’teven the bestD on his AHL team and had skating issues.

    Chia never got a backup goalie2 timesgot lucky Talbot never got hurt.

    Signed Lucic to a longterm deal in a league that has been getting faster and faster. I like him but not for the price or term.

    Face-offs

    Easy, I’m a supporter.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Side:
    Your Chiarelli’s Trades 15-16 and 16-17 tables are crippling me.

    In one table, the results are shown alphabetically (LOSSES: Two) but in the other table the results are shown numerically (LOSSES: 1).

    If next year’s table is shown as alphanumeric I may die.

    This post is worthy of McCurdy, which is a high compliment. In case Bruce drops by:

    PPG.

    🙂

  16. Bag of Pucks says:

    When assessing management efficiency, you can certainly examine it on a granular level (i.e. individual trades and signings), but I think it’s helpful to also assess the manager from an overall goals and objectives pov.

    For Chia, that might look something like this.

    1) Hire a proven Head Coach to implement a consistent winning culture. Check
    2) Address glaring roster gaps immediately (Goalie, 1D). Check
    3) Find creative ways to re-stock the prospect pipeline. Check
    4) Address the lack of size issue on the pro roster. Check
    5) Address the lack of Cup winning experience on the pro roster. Check
    6) Move the culture from inconsistent effort to one of consistent effort and professionalism. Check
    7) Fix the longstanding issue of press leaks and player character assassination via the media. Check.

    As an analogy, imagine Chia was managing your stock portfolio. From your pov, the Hall and Reinhart deals were the two negative acquisitions. But overall, with Chiarelli on the job, your portfolio far outperformed the market (YoY improvement in points and GD) and you had some absolutely stellar (Talbot, McDavid) and unexpected performers (Maroon, Kassian, Larsson) in the mix.

    Given the YoY improvement, Chiarelli is fully deserving of this award nomination.

    The very fact we find cause to complain about this type of recognition and accomplishment is one of the least appealing aspects of the Interwebs imo.

    My primary concern with Chiarelli both historically and currently is cap management. Thus far, we appear to have one potential albatross contract. If that starts to become 2, 3 or 4, we have a potential problem.

  17. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Hahahaha

    For a blog that rightly castigated Klowe and Mact for assuming they were “the smartest men in the room” it takes a lot of guts to be baffled by Chia’s nomination

    “The General Manager of the Year Award is awarded annually National Hockey League general manager as voted by “a 40-member panel that included all 30 general managers, five NHL executives and five media members.”[1] The current title holder is Jim Rutherford, of the Pittsburgh Penguins.” (Source is Wikipedia).

    I’m starting to understand what LT meant a while back about “fracture” maybe it’s a natural reaction for some but it’s starting to move from critical to obtuseness when it comes to giving credit for chia’s time as GM.

    fifthcartel,

    I don’t understand this sentiment at all

    “Betting on internal growth won’t turn their defense into Nashville’s (or Anahiem’s) defense, so I’m wondering if they’re that willing to add another $3.5-4M defenseman for multiple years when they still need to improve.”

    Now I’ll concede Nashville is better with Subban than with Weber but both of the teams Chia and youreself have sited bet heavily on internal development. Aside Fromm bieksa I think Anaheim drafted and developed all of their dmen, ditto with Nashville aside from Subban.

    I understand not plugging guys into top spots for the hell of it but I also don’t understand the sentiment of continually doubting the Oilers dmen in the system even though it sure appears that there has been season over season progression for the vast majority of those men.

    The grass isn’t always greener on the other side is all I’m trying to say

  18. blainer says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    When assessing management efficiency, you can certainly examine it on a granular level (i.e. individual trades and signings), but I think it’s helpful to also assess the manager from an overall goals and objectives pov.

    For Chia, that might look something like this.

    1) Hire a proven Head Coach to implement a consistent winning culture. Check
    2) Address glaring roster gaps immediately (Goalie, 1D). Check
    3) Find creative ways to re-stock the prospect pipeline. Check
    4) Address the lack of size issue on the pro roster. Check
    5) Address the lack of Cup winning experience on the pro roster. Check
    6) Move the culture from inconsistent effort to one of consistent effort and professionalism. Check
    7) Fix the longstanding issue of press leaks and player character assassination via the media. Check.

    As an analogy, imagine Chia was managing your stock portfolio. From your pov, the Hall and Reinhart deals were the two negative acquisitions. But overall, Chiarelli your portfolio far outperformed the market (YoY improvement in points and GD) and you had some absolutely stellar (Talbot, McDavid) and unexpected performers (Maroon, Kassian, Larsson) in the mix.

    Given the YoY improvement, Chiarelli is fully deserving of this award nomination.

    The very fact we find cause to complain about this type of recognition and accomplishment is one of the least appealing aspects of the Interwebs imo.

    My primary concern with Chiarelli both historically and currently is cap management. Thus far, we appear to have one potential albatross contract. If that starts to become 2, 3 or 4, we have a potential problem.

    +1

  19. Doug McLachlan says:

    Russell is not a replacement for Sekera – they do different things.

    Russell is a stop-gap NHL d-man, but he IS an NHL d-man and that has real value. He does some things very well and other things, well not so well or not at all. This description applies to many players and doesn’t generate the vitriol associated with Russell.

    He is a lightning rod for many because he is right in the cross-hairs of the analytics/narrative debate. That’s not his fault, he’s 5’10” and prepared to block 90-100mph slap-shots – no s**t he has grit, heart, gumption or whatever adjective you wish to ascribe. He also is death to most of the metrics we have come to look to when we assess player value.

    If he was destined for our bottom pair on a one-year deal at a reasonable price we would not be worried about this at all – the issue with Russell is that we all fear he will be paid too much to play for too long, too high up the depth chart.

    In that respect, he fits with every other potential signing or resigning Chia is faced with.

    Interesting that Chia, in his presser, made specific note of how well Larsson paired with Nurse during Game 6. That would actually hint that he may have his sights on a different RHD to pair with Klefbom moving forward, no? So he may already be looking at Russell as slotting further down the depth chart, and that should calm everyone down a bit.

    Klefbom ($4.167M) – ????
    Nurse ($1.713M) – Larsson ($4.167M)
    Russell (est. $3.5M) – Benning ($0.925M)
    Reinhart (est. $1.25M?) – Fayne ($3.625M)
    Sekera ($5.5M on LTIR)

    Very interested to see what they try and do with that hole on defense.

  20. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, aren’t you breaking your own rule in declaring the Reinhart deal a net loss for the Oil (i.e. waiting 5 years or 200 GPs before final jury verdict on prospects)?

    As it stands currently, Reinhart has 30 GPs played for the Oilers compared to 0 GPs to date for the lottery tickets expended. It seems like we’re pulling out the math when we want to plead caution for a slow developing prospect but ignoring it when we want to vilify a prospect?

    The amount of framing the issue that goes on with both the Hall and Reinhart deals is just so frustrating. I really look forward to the day when this fanbase has collectively moved on from those decisions.

  21. Jethro Tull says:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/lavoie-nhl-likely-call-predators-continually-crashing-net/

    But not the Ducks for slashing/hooking/tripping.

    What am i missing here? Why would the NHL do this? Where was this when Perry and Co. were mugging Talbot? Maybe Gibson is better at selling it. The optics are bad, I’m becoming disillusioned with the playoffs. Many people where I work still don’t watch hockey due to the lockouts – they refuse to give the NHL another dime. I’m getting to the same point with the officiating and the general not-give-a-fuck-itude of the NHL when it comes to player safety.

    This smacks of not adulteration, that’s too strong, but ‘nudging’. The NHL is trying to ‘nudge’ which way series go. Hence the convoluted explanation on why Crosby wasn’t taken off when he hit his head. (turned out it didn’t matter, Pens are a deep squad.)

    I believe that the NHL, within the next 5 – 10 years, will be nearly crippled by a class-action concussion lawsuit, mainly due to incidents like the Crosby one and their refusal to seriously acknowledge what constitutes dangerous play. Also the absolute stubbornness and ‘old school’ thinking.

  22. Doug McLachlan says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    When assessing management efficiency, you can certainly examine it on a granular level (i.e. individual trades and signings), but I think it’s helpful to also assess the manager from an overall goals and objectives pov.

    For Chia, that might look something like this.

    1) Hire a proven Head Coach to implement a consistent winning culture. Check
    2) Address glaring roster gaps immediately (Goalie, 1D). Check
    3) Find creative ways to re-stock the prospect pipeline. Check
    4) Address the lack of size issue on the pro roster. Check
    5) Address the lack of Cup winning experience on the pro roster. Check
    6) Move the culture from inconsistent effort to one of consistent effort and professionalism. Check
    7) Fix the longstanding issue of press leaks and player character assassination via the media. Check.

    As an analogy, imagine Chia was managing your stock portfolio. From your pov, the Hall and Reinhart deals were the two negative acquisitions. But overall, with Chiarelli on the job, your portfolio far outperformed the market (YoY improvement in points and GD) and you had some absolutely stellar (Talbot, McDavid) and unexpected performers (Maroon, Kassian, Larsson) in the mix.

    Given the YoY improvement, Chiarelli is fully deserving of this award nomination.

    The very fact we find cause to complain about this type of recognition and accomplishment is one of the least appealing aspects of the Interwebs imo.

    My primary concern with Chiarelli both historically and currently is cap management. Thus far, we appear to have one potential albatross contract. If that starts to become 2, 3 or 4, we have a potential problem.

    Are you sure you are in the right place?

    Big +1 from me.

  23. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull:
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/lavoie-nhl-likely-call-predators-continually-crashing-net/

    But not the Ducks for slashing/hooking/tripping.

    What am i missing here?Why would the NHL do this?Where was this when Perry and Co. were mugging Talbot?Maybe Gibson is better at selling it.The optics are bad, I’m becoming disillusioned with the playoffs.Many people where I work still don’t watch hockey due to the lockouts – they refuse to give the NHL another dime.I’m getting to the same point with the officiating and the general not-give-a-fuck-itude of the NHL when it comes to player safety.

    This smacks of not adulteration, that’s too strong, but ‘nudging’.The NHL is trying to ‘nudge’ which way series go.Hence the convoluted explanation on why Crosby wasn’t taken off when he hit his head.(turned out it didn’t matter, Pens are a deep squad.)

    I believe that the NHL, within the next 5 – 10 years, will be nearly crippled by a class-action concussion lawsuit, mainly due to incidents like the Crosby one and their refusal to seriously acknowledge what constitutes dangerous play.Also the absolute stubbornness and ‘old school’ thinking.

    Talbot had it right when he said he needed to start flopping every time he got bumped. Gibson sold both interference calls last night hard. They even had the trainer come out to sell the second one. Gibson is very good at the flop.

  24. Ribs says:

    36 percent body fat: His open remarks about Schiultz and Dubnyk, contributed to their downfall with the oilers, and his hiring of eakins set the oilers back 2 years and Killed all offensive development Gagner and Yakupov made under Kruger. As well he started the decline of Hemsky.

    Don’t forget MA Pouliot! He wrecked him, too!

  25. Chachi says:

    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account
    @EdmontonOilers

    Follow
    More
    The #Oilers have signed goaltender Dylan Wells to a three-year entry-level contract following a strong season with @PetesOHLhockey.

  26. Bag of Pucks says:

    Doug McLachlan: Are you sure you are in the right place?

    Big +1 from me.

    One of the biggest lessons I’ve learned over my career. Don’t beat your peeps up over individual mistakes if they’re absolutely nailing it from the big picture pov.

  27. Truth says:

    LT, is it possible for you to list Chiarelli’s FA signings with your comments? I believe it would show his complete body of work as GM. Trades are just one part of the picture. I’d argue the draft would be too, however in order to consider the draft results for GM of the year they’d have to present the award 5 years after the award / draft year.

    In particular, Lucic may look like a good signing today due to the “Spector Factors” but it might cost them their ability to re-sign a young player or acquire a good player in the future. All the while Lucic regresses.

    After mentioning that, maybe it would be best to award GM of the year five years later.

  28. Jaxon says:

    I know Pitlick has stayed with the team during his rehab, but that may be simply for access to staff and state of the art facilities. I could see him signing with another team in free agency, if just to get out from under the Edmonton injury curse. His 20 goal pace will be very attractive on the open market. I could see him approaching his hometown, Minnesota, on July 1st. They may be losing some scoring to Vegas or free agency.

  29. fifthcartel says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Those teams did bet heavily on internal development, but what I believe is this group of defensemen isn’t good enough to simply sign Kris Russell and hope Klefbom/Larsson/Nurse/Benning improve.

    They’re not Josi/Ekholm/Ellis or Lindholm/Manson/Theodore/Montour/Vatanen/Fowler.

    The Oilers have a realistic shot at competing for the cup next year, and I don’t think signing and playing Russell 20+ minutes and bringing back the same six defensemen helps them contend, imo.

  30. Doug McLachlan says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    LT, aren’t you breaking your own rule in declaring the Reinhart deal a net loss for the Oil (i.e. waiting 5 years or 200 GPs before final jury verdict on prospects)?

    As it stands currently, Reinhart has 30 GPs played for the Oilers compared to 0 GPs to date for the lottery tickets expended. It seems like we’re pulling out the math when we want to plead caution for a slow developing prospect but ignoring it when we want to vilify a prospect?

    The amount of framing the issue that goes on with both the Hall and Reinhart deals is just so frustrating. I really look forward to the day when this fanbase has collectively moved on from those decisions.

    You are going to be waiting more than 5 years, but yes.

    Both deals were criticized right from the moment they were made but both were, IMHO, justified gambles to address the same, organizational weakness of young, cost-controlled, d-men who could grow with the corps.

    The price paid for both were comparably young, cost controlled or at least cost certain, forwards. Hall is an elite LW (with some flaws but a serious star) and the picks given up for Reinhart were in a very deep draft. BTW, can we please stop the fiction that the Oilers were going to draft Barzal with that pick – they weren’t. I think the likely selection would have been Evgeny Svechnikov who had a great regular season for Detroit’s AHL team (74gp – 20g, 31a for 51p) and an even more impressive playoffs (8gp – 3g, 6a for 9p with games to come, I believe).

    Nobody likes to lose a trade but the thinking behind them both was not faulty – get the defense under control and ready to grow with McDavid going forward.

  31. Doug McLachlan says:

    Chachi:
    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account
    @EdmontonOilers

    FollowMore
    The #Oilers have signed goaltender Dylan Wells to a three-year entry-level contract following a strong season with @PetesOHLhockey.

    Solid move. Carry on.

  32. vangolf says:

    Ha!…the Hall/Larsson vortex sucks me back in just when I think it has passed. In seriousness, the only point I want to raise is whether there has been any evolution of the evaluation. Sometimes I get the sense that our host framed the trade initially as a loss (which I agree it was in terms of value) and therefore it will always be a loss regardless of subsequent performance. Taylor Hall being the better player prior to the trade is only relevant to the extent that it correlates to him to be the better player after the trade. I just can’t too worked up over Taylor Hall scoring 53 points in 72 games. My feelings would definitely be different had Hall delivered a PPG season or close, but that is not what happened.

  33. Jaxon says:

    Oesterle may also sign elsewhere. There is quite a log jam in front of him on left D, even with Sekera’s injury (especially if the re-sign Russell):

    Klefbom
    Sekera (or Russell)
    Nurse
    Reinhart (got the call during the playoffs instead of Oesterle)
    Paigin (if he adjusts quickly, he may get a callup and I think they are pretty high on him, at 6’6″, he scored at a higher pace last year than Oesterle in a better league)
    Jones (he may provide more speed and offence than Oesterle and is 5 years younger thereby eating his lunch)
    Simpson (got 3 games this season to Oesterle’s 2)
    Oesterle (he’s among the oldest prospects at 25, as well as the lightest at 182 lbs)

    I’d look for a new opportunity if I was Oesterle.

  34. Melman says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Ditto. I think it’s imperative as part of any assessment be it stocks or team success to evaluate the entirety. It is impossible to be correct 100% of the time so you have to look at the overall success. Clearly the team greatly exceeded expectations. I’m a big Hall fan, but if there was a better RHD return for Hall then PC would have made that deal – why would he not? I also think the $2M in cap savings gets glossed over too easily when assessing the trade – particularly given the term left on Larsson’s deal.

  35. judgedrude says:

    Peter Chiarelli, Pierre Dorion and David Poile are the 2017 finalists for GM of the Year – an award which desperately needs a name.

    As for a name for the award, I would suggest the Dick Irvin Trophy. Dick Irvin took a fledgling NHL team that was about to collapse and turned it into one of the most storied franchises in all of NA sport: Les Habs. I’m not a Habs fan at all, but that would be the kind of story that could get universal support.

  36. knighttown says:

    I hope you don’t get defensive about this and consider the merits of using a different evaluation method…

    You can’t use a quantifiable 7-2-2 win-loss-meh record if you’re going to evaluate trades from one side only. Only 2 of these trades can be measured this way because in the other 14 examples both parties accomplished their goal.

    You have Justin Schultz, a player playing 1st pairing defense on (potentially) back-to-back champions, being dealt for a 3rd rounder as a win. Then you have the Ducks dumping Maroon on the Oilers for less than nothing as another win.

    You must see the fallacy with this?

    Both were completely dependent on the situation the team was in at that moment. You know Chia’s motivation for moving Schultz so a return of nothing was a win. But you don’t know Murray’s reason for moving Maroon so you give Chia another win. These two trades are two sides of the same coin and both teams accomplished their goal.

    My humble recommendation if you want to move the conversation forward would be to only evaluate trades in which both teams valued and wanted the asset they were holding at the time.. And only declare a winner if you believe the trading team would take the trade back. So many trades are win-wins.

    Kassian for Scrivens was an example of a trade where both players had negative value. So you can’t give a win to Chia for that one because of the player Kass became and then turn around and give a win to Chia for dumping Schultz who has been far superior than the return.

    The only two trades that qualify under the criteria of “both teams valued the asset they were holding” are:

    Larsson for Hall (obviously)

    Reinhart for draft picks (NYI didn’t want to move him but Oilers paid a price the Islanders couldn’t refuse)

    If you use my criteria I believe Chia would do a do-over on Reinhart (and Snow wouldn’t) therefore loss. On Hall for Larsson I believe both parties would do the same trade again today so tie.

    Even Talbot for picks was a scenario where the Rangers were moving him on that day regardless and only a couple of teams were in the biddng. Would the Rangers redo that trade? I’d say no more so than the Oilers redoing Schultz. They held a bidding war and got the best price they could.

    Maroon too. It’s really hard to evaluate because they Ducks had him with negative value (we know this because the asset was nothing and they retained salary) so it’s like an inverse Schultz. “Moving Patrick Maroon” was the asset Anaheim coveted so they accomplished their goal.

    And then there’s the weighting. You give two “wins” for Anders Nilsson? We traded nothing for Nilsson and then traded him for nothing. Two wins? I wish you were marking my exams.

    If I was evaluating Chia’s performance I’d have:

    1. Evaluateable trades; 0 wins, 1 loss and 1 tie. C
    2. Discard pile acquisitions; Maroon and Kass playing major rules is a massive win. Plus I’d sort of put Talbot here. A++
    2. Drafts- incomplete of course but some great arrows with Jones and Bear. B+
    3. International and College procurement- off the charts A+ with the delivery of two regular NHLers in Cags and Benning
    4. Free Agency- he got the best defense (Sekera) and the best LW (Lucic) in his two summers so I’d give him some credit for that. Paid dearly for Lucic but such is life in NHL free agency. B
    5. Contract negotiations- we’ll see in a few weeks

  37. Melman says:

    https://twitter.com/RobTheHockeyGuy/status/864687555156992000

    This is classic. Gibson must sit next to Kesler in the dressing room

  38. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    fifthcartel,

    On this front I disagree equally.

    I don’t see it as bringing back the same six, I see it as bringing back the same six who are one year older, wiser and stronger, to compete next season. Which will also be another season building the team around TMac’s system and coaching style. There can be a lot of growth when there is this kind of continuity and I’ll just offer a couple of thoughts below.

    After seeing a full year sans major injury I will go ahead and annoint Klefbom as a full throated #1 D currently matriculating. With Sekera out he now runs 1PP and after Sek and Russel struggled I thought he and Larsson were the #1 pair by the middle of the San Jose series. Both men are under 25 and both played above their pay grade this season. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest they’ll improve more next year given the body of work we saw this season.

    Nurse-Benning are in a similar spot. Nurse missed two months in the middle of the season and had to get back into the lineup during a playoff run. Benning played 40 more games than he ever had up until this point and both were asked to step up above their pay grade in the playoffs. I think it’s reasonable to suggest that these men will also take their season and look to improve upon it.

    I don’t want to hand anyone minutes, its best to plan for eventualities and if there is a reasonably priced option via trade or sign I agree you pull the trigger but I also don’t want to be so pessimistic that we miss what we have. The forward group taking another step will also help with this. The Oilers brass already played this game with Jeff Petry where they didn’t trust him and kept fishing for new blood and we’re still smarting over it.

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    Doug McLachlan: You are going to be waiting more than 5 years, but yes.

    Both deals were criticized right from the moment they were made but both were, IMHO, justified gambles to address the same, organizational weakness of young, cost-controlled, d-men who could grow with the corps.

    The price paid for both were comparably young, cost controlled or at least cost certain, forwards.Hall is an elite LW (with some flaws but a serious star) and the picks given up for Reinhart were in a very deep draft.BTW, can we please stop the fiction that the Oilers were going to draft Barzal with that pick – they weren’t.I think the likely selection would have been Evgeny Svechnikov who had a great regular season for Detroit’s AHL team (74gp – 20g, 31a for 51p) and an even more impressive playoffs (8gp – 3g, 6a for 9p with games to come, I believe).

    Nobody likes to lose a trade but the thinking behind them both was not faulty – get the defense under control and ready to grow with McDavid going forward.

    Agreed. The other benefit of the Reinhart deal is it gave Chia an opportunity to evaluate the likes of MacT and Bob Green under fire. I’ve seen a lot of criticism of Chia over this (i.e. why would he listen to those guys), but any exec new to an org. will do this. You’ve got put the staff you inherit to the test and see who the keepers are.

  40. New Improved Darkness says:

    Lowetide: This post is worthy of McCurdy, which is a high compliment. In case Bruce drops by:

    PPG.

    Hilarious.

    Yesterday I had an unusual run where I must have spotted six different typos in six different top-shelf “journals of record”, including one newly slovenly New Yorker. Of all things.

    Wikipedia: Nike, Inc.
    Wikipedia: Apple Inc.

    There’s just no sanity or order here. But the The nit-picking glory of The New Yorker’s Comma Queen is apt to the task.

    Ordinarily.

    The day after he canned [redacted], [redacted] revealed some of the company’s trade secrets to senior executives from a key rival, Russia Corporation, which only last year did all it could to sabotage one of U.S.A., Inc.,’s key product launches. …

    Since he was chosen as C.E.O., last November, it has been one thing after another. But, partly because stock in the company has risen despite it all, most of U.S.A., Inc.,’s senior executives and big shareholders have until now stayed loyal … (source)

    U.S.A. Inc. ???
    U.S.A., Inc. ???

    I won’t further spell this out. An inquiring mind can piece together the last-second zealotry double-down.

    ———

    U.S.A., Inc., — bow fowled
    U.,S.A., Inc. — anchors away
    U … S.A., Inc. — man overboard

    Who knew the U meant Soyuz later?

    ———

    [*] Actually, the Soyuz can splashdown and float like a tub, though it prefers Kazak sand. (That’s strange. Perhaps it’s not sufficiently watertight? Hmmm, maybe those lazy Russians should work on that. I mean, you can’t just work around every little problem and expect quality over the long haul.)

  41. Bag of Pucks says:

    judgedrude: As for a name for the award, I would suggest the Dick Irvin Trophy.Dick Irvin took a fledgling NHL team that was about to collapse and turned it into one of the most storied franchises in all of NA sport:Les Habs.I’m not a Habs fan at all, but that would be the kind of story that could get universal support.

    Was going to suggest naming it after Sam Pollock, but Irvin certainly works as well.

  42. Pouzar says:

    Jaxon: Reinhart (got the call during the playoffs instead of Oesterle)

    I believe Oesterle was hurt.

    FWIW, I would take Oesty over Reinhart all day.

  43. Ray says:

    One player that might take a one year ufa contract as a Sekera stop gap instead of Russell… Del Zotto out of philly… Could take his place on the powerplay and could prevent Nurse from being pushed up to quickly while not holding him back if he takes another leap.

    Del Zotto has been playing on one and two year contracts for a while so he might come over on a one year 2-2.5 million offer.

  44. McSorley33 says:

    Pouzar,

    FWIW, I would take Oesty over Reinhart all day.
    ***********************************************************
    Same.

    Speed is King.

    Really hoping he sticks with the Oil.

  45. Spengler says:

    36 percent body fat:
    how well off would this organization be if Barzal and Carlo were in the system.

    This is a particular bugbear of mine, so while I agree with your point I can’t agree with your premises.

    Barzal was available at 16. But the Oilers may not have taken him. Ek was the rumoured pick. If Ek is gone and Barzal available then the picks from 17-32 are different. Carlo could be gone by 33.

  46. Clarkenstein says:

    When you sift through all the debris the Oil ended up where they did because of Connor (nothing Chia did), Talbot (last season’s Chia deal) and Larsson (his deal lock, stock and barrel). So essentially he get nominated for “losing” a trade according to LT. Interesting times we live in.

  47. Jaxon says:

    Okay, have to share. I was just looking up Sebastien Aho on Elite Prospects and it has his father listed as one Harri Aho. Now that is a rough moniker to go through life with.

  48. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Chiarelli’s a capable GM, I think that is clear. Not every call will be right – the Reinhart deal didn’t go down without his approval on it. He must have liked something about it, I still don’t get the ridiculous overpay though.

    Maybe they are wrong about Reinhart, but they were right about Benning. The player has a big role in a deal’s and his own success. There are other factors the GM can’t control – willingness of his peers, perceived immediate needs, owners.

    I hope we see him earn his accolades this summer with some insightful deals that fill the weak spots well.

  49. fifthcartel says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    I’m equally as enamoured with Oscar Klefbom as you are. I like Klefbom-Larsson as one strong pair in a good team’s top-four. I like Darnell Nurse and Matthew Benning as a third pair that can probably be stronger with a healthier Nurse and Benning. I see AndreJ Sekera as a good player that is one half of another strong pairing.

    Where I see the problem is that second pair needs to be stronger with the other defensemen, which I don’t see as the case if you’re bringing back Kris Russell. I get the Sekera injury complicates things, but I don’t see a strong top-four pairing with Kris Russel on it.

    The Oilers will need two good pairings to be compete, and I feel they’ll give too much away by playing Kris Russell in that position. This is the last year of McDavid’s entry-level contract, I don’t think bringing back Kris Russell as a top-four defenseman is an effective way of utilizing that last cheap year of Hockey Jesus.

    They need to continue to add to the defense if they want to get better IMO.

  50. gregsaint says:

    Jaxon,

    I went to school with a ‘Harry Quach’…

  51. Pouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    Pouzar,

    FWIW, I would take Oesty over Reinhart all day.
    ***********************************************************
    Same.

    Speed is King.

    Really hoping he sticks with the Oil.

    He is a puck mover. We need those. If he was RH he would be on the team me thinks.

  52. New Improved Darkness says:

    I’ve been all over machine learning lately. And reading books about radio production on the side, two books I both give an intensely personal A-rating, but would never recommend to others, because you really have to want what they’re selling. You know who you are (because you already own both books).

    The first is Sound Reporting by Jonathan Kern. The second is Reality Radio: Telling True Stories in Sound, edited by John Biewen. One of Lowetide’s many graces is writing for the ear. These books are all about writing for the ear.

    In the second book, last night I came across a sentence something like this:

    “And maybe that explains sixteen-year-old Eric’s hesitation.”

    My NLP ML overdosed brain went straight into tilt.

    Because the implied parse is this:

    (sixteen-year-old Eric)’s hesitation

    but actually:

    (then sixteen-year-old Eric)’s hesitation

    Is this but an auxiliary factoid strangely crammed into the past present tense?

    Or do we kind of subtly think of people as subdividable, in geological terms, and mentally model each soil strata as an independent actor?

    It’s amazing what a long rope a simple apostrophe sometimes throws.

    Now if I had the Shakespeare inside me, I’d be penning my first Ode To a Simple Mark: … how like a wedgie has my absence been …

    Only I’m off to a bad start already. It’s really “how like not-having-a-wedgie has my absence been” and that’s just not poetic.

  53. gregsaint says:

    Before he left, WOODGUY V2.0 asserted (in his I’m-right-and-that’s-the-end-of-it way) that we got no cap relief from the Hall trade because of the Lucic signing. I can’t agree.

    The Oilers needed someone in that 1/2 D spot and if it wasn’t Larsson at 4M, they would have had to sign someone or trade for someone else, which could easily have cost 6M or more (even as much as 9M for Subban).

    So how do you value that part of the trade? To me, that’s worth at least some cap savings. What’s your number?

  54. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    This is such a good perspective … It is an Objective look at overall organizational movement (up or down, positive and negative). The NHL is about winning. It’s not about making friends, or keeping nice players or doing the popular thing. It’s about Winning. Just like all Professional Sports.

    The Oilers didn’t (couldn’t) win for 10 years. New GM comes in and within 2 years, his team is one of the Top Teams in the League. I myself, applaud those kind of results. But the interweb ppl expect perfection?

    Take out PC’s Bruins and you have 3 teams that have won the Stanley Cup in the last 8 years (Pit – 2, Chi – 3, LA – 2). Have all of those GM’s been perfect? Nope. The bottom is line is results are what matter.

    Most of the fans that are still bellyaching, are the same fans that were complaining about most of PC’s trades from the outset AND the same fans that didn’t give this team a snowball’s chance in hell to make the Playoffs. So rather than concede how wrong they were on player assessment & what makes up a winning TEAM, they just dig their heels in and continue their assault on PC and the Oilers, DESPITE the amazing year that just transpired.

    As a Fan, I am about the Crest on the front. I like GM’s with stones to move good players if they feel it enhances their team (whether it does or not is the risk of the deal).

    For any fan that thinks PC has NOT done a good job, just check out the Oilers Defense & overall roster when PC took over. He inherited the Biggest mess in League history possibly. yes, he had some pieces in place, but he also had no Goalie, an AHL Level D core 1 – 8 and the most “soft skill” lineup on the planet. He has completeley turned around this teams current record, demeanor and future expectations.

    All Hail PC!!!!

  55. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ray:
    One player that might take a one year ufa contract as a Sekera stoo gap instead of Russell… Del Zotto out of philly… Could take his place on the powerplay and could prevent Nurse from being pushed up to quickly while not holding him back if he takes another leap.

    Del Zotto has been playing on one and two year contracts for a while so he might come over on a one year 2-2.5 million offer.

    Was looking at the available UFA d who can soak up some minutes.

    Del Zotto is not a bad call. Certainly more offensive pop than some of the other UFA options (Kulikov or Stone). His fancies, if I am reading Corsica correctly, look better than Sekera’s: CF% of 51.36% while playing over 19minutes for Philly.

    Woodguy, what’s your thumbs up or down on Del Zotto?

  56. jtblack says:

    “Note: If you’re going to argue the Schultz deal is a loss, pack a lunch because it’s going to take you all day. Not a chance in hell Mr. Schultz flourishes in Edmonton”

    LT; I think the same applies to the Yakupov deal. Not sure why the jury is still out. PC inherited a broken player who was improperly developed. Whether Yakupov would have turned out with proper develop will be a mystery to all. But, he clearly was not going to succeed in Edmonton, PC had to move on from him and he landed a 3rd round pick with upside protection in case Yak could actually find the net more often than Matt Hendricks. So I think this is a clear win for PC.

  57. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    jtblack,

    + 10

  58. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    I almost spit coffee over my phone on this one. Does anyone really need another reason to dislike the Quaks?

    Predators fans not pleased after two disallowed goals
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/predators-fans-not-pleased-two-disallowed-goals/

  59. fifthcartel says:

    Del Zotto played 1:20 less than Russell did at even strength. I doubt he gets another deal at 3.875m like he did so he’s one of the players I’d go after instead of signing Russell.

  60. Doug McLachlan says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Can we all agree, F*ck the Ducks.

    They are cheating cheaters who cheat.

    May the Hockey Gods strike them down with great vengeance and furious anger.

    May the Hockey Gods strike Kesler down twice, for no other reason that it pleases them.

  61. Doug McLachlan says:

    fifthcartel,

    Not sure you get Del Zotto to replace Russell, rather you do it to fill the void created by Sekera’s injury.

    Russell, merits and flaws, fills a different role on the d.

  62. jtblack says:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201617&sit=5v5&pos=defense&minutes=500&teamid=0&type=individual&sort=ipoints&sortdir=DESC

    Look at all the names for D man scoring at Even Strength. Things that suprised me? The Oilers have 3 of the Top 60 ES scorers. Larsson is surrounded by MANY names that I wouldn’t have believed. I know Larsson will never be an Offensive D man, but his ES scoring numbers are on par with some tremendous players; I was expecting him to be waaaaaay down the list.

  63. fifthcartel says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Yeah, sorry that’s what I meant. I’m under the impression signing Russell is most people’s solution to the Sekera injury but I’d stay far away from any Russell contract.

    1/2 year deal for Del Zotto or other free agent LHD and a trade for a RHD like a Pysyk.

  64. Bank Shot says:

    Jaxon:
    Oesterle may also sign elsewhere. There is quite a log jam in front of him on left D, even with Sekera’s injury (especially if the re-sign Russell):

    Oesterle (he’s among the oldest prospects at 25, as well as the lightest at 182 lbs)

    I’d look for a new opportunity if I was Oesterle.

    Osterle is an an undrafted 25 year old RFA tweener going into next season. If the Oilers offer him a contract he’d be insane not to sign it.

    He’s waiver eligible so if the Oilers send him down in the fall, 30 other teams will have a chance to get him. I personally think he’ll clear waivers.

    Speaking of waivers. I’d say most Oilers fans think that Vegas will take Reinhart in the expansion draft. The problem for Vegas here is that they will probably also be picking 7 defensemen that are better than Reinhart.

    Does it make sense to pick Reinhart only to have to put him on waivers or deal him away immediately after? What’s his value at now? 3rd or a 4th?

    Perhaps he won’t be leaving Edmonton after all.

  65. anjinsan says:

    Edmonton hockey greatness was all due to a genius hockey player and a coach/GM who creatively built on that.

    That genius hockey player was better not by being bigger, faster, stronger, more skilled, but by being GREAT at out-anticipating and creatively using his vision to play steps ahead of the foe. His vision and play rubbed off on the rest of the team.

    A GM can play the same way, win by being better at seeing where things are going and creatively using that vision. Alternatively, the other ways a GM can play are either to go into win-now mode or to go into build for the future mode; the first mode trades future assets for present assets and the other sacrifices current assets for future assets.

    For me, Chiarelli was brought in because of the luck of McDavid. Once in, he was in win now mode. He was also in Chiarelli mode which is to favor the heavy, play hard game. Chiarelli mode is also not being good with high-end talent and bloating contracts. What Chiarelli is NOT is a brilliant vision guy.

    Chiarelli hired a very competent, play hard, systems coach. Solid. Look what a difference that makes! Chiarelli brought in Kassian, Maroon, and Lucic. Solid. Look what a difference that makes! However, Lucic was brought in on a seriously bloated contract — Chiarelli mortgaged the future for now.

    Larsson was added in a glaring area of need — but at a serious overpayment of current assets. If your car breaks down and you need a part, well, of course you’re better off getting the part, but if you paid $15,000 for a $1000 part, you got fleeced. Adding Larsson was not vision; it was blue collar mechanic, and frankly spendthrift mechanic.

    And the Reinhart trade: complete incompetence. Reinhart was supposed to be a Larsson. But Harvard educated Chiarelli didn’t do his damn homework. Bad bad bad. Both #16 and #33 were going to be serious 1st round grade prospects in THAT draft. Pissing away Barzal or Kyle Connor and then Carlo??!! Or if you don’t like those picks, there was Chabot, White, Svetchnikov, Samsonov, or a trade down for maybe get three serious 1st round grade prospects, like Carlo, Kylington, and Greenway! Lord have mercy! No homework and no vision.

    Finally, ah ain’t packin’ no lunch, LT, nosiree, but I disagree on Schultz. Something could and should have been done to salvage him. He’s proved better than Shattenkirk and Harvard smart Chiarelli was going to trade Hall for Shattenkirk. Schultz makes a serious difference for the Pens; the worthy and entitled Shattenkirk didn’t do shit for the Caps.

  66. Chachi says:

    anjinsan:
    Edmonton hockey greatness was all due to a genius hockey player and a coach/GM who creatively built on that.

    That genius hockey player was better not by being bigger, faster, stronger, more skilled, but by being GREAT at out-anticipating and creatively using his vision to play steps ahead of the foe.His vision and play rubbed off on the rest of the team.

    A GM can play the same way, win by being better at seeing where things are going and creatively using that vision.Alternatively, the other ways a GM can play are either to go into win-now mode or to go into build for the future mode; the first mode trades future assets for present assets and the other sacrifices current assets for future assets.

    For me, Chiarelli was brought in because of the luck of McDavid.Once in, he was in win now mode.He was also in Chiarelli mode which is to favor the heavy, play hard game.Chiarelli mode is also not being good with high-end talent and bloating contracts.What Chiarelli is NOT is a brilliant vision guy.

    Chiarelli hired a very competent, play hard, systems coach.Solid.Look what a difference that makes!Chiarelli brought in Kassian, Maroon, and Lucic.Solid.Look what a difference that makes!However, Lucic was brought in on a seriously bloated contract — Chiarelli mortgaged the future for now.

    Larsson was added in a glaring area of need — but at a serious overpayment of current assets.If your car breaks down and you need a part, well, of course you’re better off getting the part, but if you paid $15,000 for a $1000 part, you got fleeced. Adding Larsson was not vision; it was blue collar mechanic, and frankly spendthrift mechanic.

    And the Reinhart trade: complete incompetence.Reinhart was supposed to be a Larsson.But Harvard educated Chiarelli didn’t do his damn homework.Bad bad bad.Both #16 and #33 were going to be serious 1st round grade prospects in THAT draft.Pissing away Barzal or Kyle Connor and then Carlo??!!Or if you don’t like those picks, there was Chabot, White, Svetchnikov, Samsonov, or a trade down for maybe get three serious 1st round grade prospects, like Carlo, Kylington, and Greenway!Lord have mercy!No homework and no vision.

    Finally, ah ain’t packin’ no lunch, LT, nosiree, but I disagree on Schultz.Something could and should have been done to salvage him.He’s proved better than Shattenkirk and Harvard smart Chiarelli was going to trade Hall for Shattenkirk.Schultz makes a serious difference for the Pens; the worthy and entitled Shattenkirk didn’t do shit for the Caps.

    Chiarelli went to Harvard? Reading this post made me dumber.

  67. frjohnk says:

    jtblack:
    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201617&sit=5v5&pos=defense&minutes=500&teamid=0&type=individual&sort=ipoints&sortdir=DESC

    Look at all the names for D man scoring at Even Strength. Things thatsuprised me? The Oilers have 3 of the Top 60 ES scorers.Larsson is surrounded by MANY names that I wouldn’t have believed.I know Larsson will never be an Offensive D man, but his ES scoring numbers are on par with some tremendous players; I was expecting him to be waaaaaay down the list.

    When you factor in his TOI, he is 87th in 5 on 5 pts/60 with more than 500 mins for Dmen.

    I think he has more skill to show and am expecting him to produce more offense next year.

    I do think his goals for 60 will take a hit somewhat next year, but that should be expected with what happened this year.

  68. SkatinginSand says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Bag of Pucks:
    LT, aren’t you breaking your own rule in declaring the Reinhart deal a net loss for the Oil (i.e. waiting 5 years or 200 GPs before final jury verdict on prospects)?

    As it stands currently, Reinhart has 30 GPs played for the Oilers compared to 0 GPs to date for the lottery tickets expended. It seems like we’re pulling out the math when we want to plead caution for a slow developing prospect but ignoring it when we want to vilify a prospect?

    The amount of framing the issue that goes on with both the Hall and Reinhart deals is just so frustrating. I really look forward to the day when this fanbase has collectively moved on from those decisions.

    Double thumbs up!

  69. russ99 says:

    Yakupov was a straight out salary dump, and for finding a taker without salary retention and using Yak’s salary to sign Kris Russell, that’s a win.

    The Hall trade at worst is a meh. IMO it’s a win, but I’m not tied to winning a cup with specific players or pulling for a modern recreation of the mythical 80s Oilers offense.

    I just want a cup and I don’t care how they do it (though this year’s playoffs show us a pretty good roadmap) or who has to go to get there.

    Besides the old adage is true, something is only worth what you can get for it. Nobody was beating a path to our door to take Hall for a Norris winner.

    fifthcartel:
    Del Zotto played 1:20 less than Russell did at even strength. I doubt he gets another deal at 3.875m like he did so he’s one of the players I’d go after instead of signing Russell.

    Del Zotto is a liability in the defensive zone. No player like that (Franson too) should be acquired solely for shot metrics.

  70. JDI says:

    anjinsan: Something could and should have been done to salvage him.

    Exactly. The Oilers should have become Cup contenders and given Schultz 3rd pairing minutes and the odd healthy scratch.

    anjinsan: Harvard smart Chiarelli was going to trade Hall for Shattenkirk.

    It’s a good thing for HarvardSmart™ Chiarelli that Shero decided to outbid the Blues on that one.

  71. Professor Q says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Can we all agree, F*ck the Ducks.

    They are cheating cheaters who cheat.

    May the Hockey Gods strike them down with great vengeance and furious anger.

    May the Hockey Gods strike Kesler down twice, for no other reason that it pleases them.

    Prey, they shall become.

  72. Doug McLachlan says:

    Bank Shot: Osterle is an an undrafted 25 year old RFA tweener going into next season. If the Oilers offer him a contract he’d be insane not to sign it.

    He’s waiver eligible so if the Oilers send him down in the fall, 30 other teams will have a chance to get him. I personally think he’ll clear waivers.

    Speaking of waivers. I’d say most Oilers fans think that Vegas will take Reinhart in the expansion draft. The problem for Vegas here is that they will probably also be picking 7 defensemen that are better than Reinhart.

    Does it make sense to pick Reinhart only to have to put him on waivers or deal him away immediately after? What’s his value at now? 3rd or a 4th?

    Perhaps he won’t be leaving Edmonton after all.

    This was my sense as well.

    I’ve spent way, way too much time playing with the CapFriendly Expansion Draft Tool and have to say my sense is that Reinhart is not selected for just that reason. I am increasingly optimistic that Chia can offer up a pick and or prospect to McPhee to do the Oilers a solid and select Pouliot.

    Who do you have as Vegas’ most popular defense selections?

  73. --hudson-- says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    Do you any must reads for ML? Hoping to study ML this fall.

    I’m currently reading the Master Algorithm by Pedro Domingos, it’s light and approachable. Entry level. Would be nice to read other perspectives.

  74. McNuge93 says:

    jtblack:
    Bag of Pucks,

    This is such a good perspective … Itis an Objective look at overall organizational movement (up or down, positive and negative). The NHL is about winning.It’s not about making friends, or keeping nice players or doing the popular thing. It’s about Winning.Just like all Professional Sports.

    The Oilers didn’t (couldn’t) win for 10 years.New GM comes in and within 2 years, his team is one of the Top Teams in the League.I myself, applaud those kind of results.But the interweb ppl expect perfection?

    Take out PC’s Bruins and you have 3 teams that have won the Stanley Cup in the last 8 years (Pit – 2, Chi – 3, LA – 2).Have all of those GM’s been perfect?Nope. The bottom is line is results are what matter.

    Most of the fans that are still bellyaching, are the same fans that were complaining about most of PC’s trades from the outset AND the same fans that didn’t give this team a snowball’s chance in hell to make the Playoffs.So rather than concede how wrong they were on player assessment & what makes up a winning TEAM, they just dig their heels in and continue their assault on PC and the Oilers, DESPITE the amazing year that just transpired.

    As a Fan, I am about the Crest on the front.I like GM’s with stones to move good players if they feel it enhances their team (whether it does or not is the risk of the deal).

    For any fan that thinks PC has NOT done a good job, just check out the Oilers Defense & overall roster when PC took over. He inherited the Biggest mess in League history possibly.yes, he had some pieces in place, but he also had no Goalie, an AHL Level D core 1 – 8 and the most “soft skill” lineup on the planet.He has completeley turned around this teams current record, demeanor and future expectations.

    All Hail PC!!!!

    +1 on this. And he completely changed the character of the team. A team that stands up for each other, and doesn’t get pushed around.

  75. rickithebear says:

    treevojo: 5 mil seems high for a defensive defenseman.

    Can’t be many 1 goal scorers/14 pters out there make 5 mil a year?

    Offensive level of Dmen EVP60 – (Fwd rank) – EVA60 (D RK) – EVGA60 (D RK)

    —————– top 90 (1-3 Fwd) 1.86
    #1D Burns 1.82 – (98) – 1.07 (4D) – 2.01 (53D)
    —————– Top 120 1.77 (#4 Fwd)
    —————– Top 150 1.66 (#5 Fwd)
    #2 D Hamilton 1.56 – (174) – 1.09 (3D) – 2.08 (67D)
    —————– Top 180 1.55 (#6 Fwd)
    #3D Karlsson 1.45 – (194) – 1.01 (7D) – 2.17 (86D)
    —————– Top 210 1.44 (#7 Fwd)
    #4D Skjei 1.41 – (227) – 1.16 (1D) – 2.46 (146D)
    —————– Top 240 1.38 (#8 Fwd)
    —————– Top 270 1.29 (#9 Fwd)
    #5 D Markov 1.27 – (278) – .98 (10D) – 1.62 (14D)
    #8 D trouba 1.22 – (295) – .98 (10D) –
    —————– Top 300 1.20 (#10 Fwd)
    #18 D Barrie 1.10 – (330) – .84 (25D) – 3.12 (204D)
    —————– Top 330 1.10 (#11 Fwd)
    #30 D Subban 1.03 – (345) – .68 (53D) – 2.15 (81D)
    —————– Top 360 .97 (#12 Fwd)
    #47 D Gardiner .95 – (365) – .79 (30D) – 2.07 (64D)
    #52 D Sekera .92 – (371) – .69 (50D) – 1.70 (19D)
    #60 D Klefbom .85 – (384) – .47 (127D) – 2.43 (140D)
    —————– Top 390 .83 (#13 Fwd)
    #70 D Nurse .81 – (304) – .36 (169D) – 2.51 (151D)
    #70 D M. Rielly .81 – (394) – .67 (55) – 3.10 (202D)
    #80 D OEL – .76 – (398) – .63 (73D) – 2.65 (171D)
    #87 D C. Miller – .74 – (400) – 37 (167D) – 1.94 (45D)
    #93 D Faulk .72 – (406) – .31 (185D) – 2.58 (163D)
    #99 D Benning .71 – (408) – .58 (94D) – 2.07 (64D)
    —————– Top 420 .67 (#14Fwd)
    —————– Non roster level after 420
    #129 Brodie .63 – (423) – .54 (105D) – 2.35 (132D)
    #135 Stralman .62 – (424) – .47 (127D) – 2.23 (102D)
    #135 Doughty .62 – (424) – .43 (148D) – 1.56 (13D)
    #139 Russell .60 – (428) – .55 (100D) – 1.69 (18D)
    #145 Ekblad .58 – (429) – .37 (167D) – 2.444 (142D)
    #145 Stone .58 – (429) – .47 (127D) – 1.98 (50D)
    #154 Alzner .55 – (432) – .46 (135D) – 1.62 (15D)
    #158 Bogosian – .54 (433) – .48 (121D) – 2.90 (193D)
    #197 D Vatanen .38 – (446) – .32 (178D) – 2.00 (52D)
    #199 D Tanev – .35 – (449) – .28 (194D) – 1.90 (41D)

    Depends on how the Dman scores Goals?

    Even Goals:
    Very good – Point shots/pass with High Shooting% very.
    Avg – 4th option at top of circle abandons HD path to own net. But does not drop bellow top of circle.
    Very bad – Chasing Goals down low with pocession; completely abandoning defence of HD path.

    Even Assists:
    Very good: quick Transition Passing.
    get it to the 300 fwds (upper 4th line) who can outscore al but 12 of the Dmen in the game.
    Poor Skating the Puck -up and allowing the opposition 3 levels of Defence.
    1. Neutral Zone trap
    2. Blue line Entry presuure
    3. Presure to the perimeter (limit HD Corsi)

  76. Side says:

    anjinsan:
    Edmonton hockey greatness was all due to a genius hockey player and a coach/GM who creatively built on that.

    That genius hockey player was better not by being bigger, faster, stronger, more skilled, but by being GREAT at out-anticipating and creatively using his vision to play steps ahead of the foe.His vision and play rubbed off on the rest of the team.

    A GM can play the same way, win by being better at seeing where things are going and creatively using that vision.Alternatively, the other ways a GM can play are either to go into win-now mode or to go into build for the future mode; the first mode trades future assets for present assets and the other sacrifices current assets for future assets.

    For me, Chiarelli was brought in because of the luck of McDavid.Once in, he was in win now mode.He was also in Chiarelli mode which is to favor the heavy, play hard game.Chiarelli mode is also not being good with high-end talent and bloating contracts.What Chiarelli is NOT is a brilliant vision guy.

    Chiarelli hired a very competent, play hard, systems coach.Solid.Look what a difference that makes!Chiarelli brought in Kassian, Maroon, and Lucic.Solid.Look what a difference that makes!However, Lucic was brought in on a seriously bloated contract — Chiarelli mortgaged the future for now.

    Larsson was added in a glaring area of need — but at a serious overpayment of current assets.If your car breaks down and you need a part, well, of course you’re better off getting the part, but if you paid $15,000 for a $1000 part, you got fleeced. Adding Larsson was not vision; it was blue collar mechanic, and frankly spendthrift mechanic.

    And the Reinhart trade: complete incompetence.Reinhart was supposed to be a Larsson.But Harvard educated Chiarelli didn’t do his damn homework.Bad bad bad.Both #16 and #33 were going to be serious 1st round grade prospects in THAT draft.Pissing away Barzal or Kyle Connor and then Carlo??!!Or if you don’t like those picks, there was Chabot, White, Svetchnikov, Samsonov, or a trade down for maybe get three serious 1st round grade prospects, like Carlo, Kylington, and Greenway!Lord have mercy!No homework and no vision.

    Finally, ah ain’t packin’ no lunch, LT, nosiree, but I disagree on Schultz.Something could and should have been done to salvage him.He’s proved better than Shattenkirk and Harvard smart Chiarelli was going to trade Hall for Shattenkirk.Schultz makes a serious difference for the Pens; the worthy and entitled Shattenkirk didn’t do shit for the Caps.

    ….. Bruce Wayne?

  77. russ99 says:

    I like Oesterle as well, he has a good all-around game, seems ready to step up from the AHL and has some offensive chops.

    I don’t think he’ll cost a lot, and at worst could replace Gryba, and I like him better at #7 than a certain flawed player that reminds me of Cam Barker and who Bob Green pushed on us because he loves old Oil Kings.

  78. geowal says:

    Joined the reams of Calgary unemployed today, looks like I’ll have more time to follow the draft and comment on here!

  79. StixMalone says:

    Bag of Pucks: Agreed. The other benefit of the Reinhart deal is it gave Chia an opportunity to evaluate the likes of MacT and Bob Green under fire. I’ve seen a lot of criticism of Chia over this (i.e. why would he listen to those guys), but any exec new to an org. will do this. You’ve got put the staff you inherit to the test and see who the keepers are.

    If this was such a bad trade why is Chia still high on Reinhardt? He obviously still trusts his staff as MacT and Green still have employment ?

  80. The Hermit says:

    Is everyone forgetting that to keep Schultz the Oilers would have to qualify him at around 4 million per?

    He gone.

  81. delooper says:

    I see Chiarelli as a giant breath of fresh air for the Oilers. It’s difficult to criticize his moves from a big-picture perspective. I did not like some of his early trades (Petry) but that probably has to do with him paying-attention to the other members of Oilers management. You want a GM that listens and learns. That trade maybe taught him a little bit about who to listen to. . .

    I don’t like judging trades based on “who got the better player”. I prefer to evaluate in terms of how the trades affect the team’s ability to play hockey. In that regard the Hall-Larsson trade was a big step forward for Edmonton. Does not appear to have done much good for New Jersey.

    Chiarelli has some things to do this summer but his todo-list is so much more confidence inspiring than the past two summers.

  82. DaveWatchesHockey says:

    anjinsan:

    Larsson was added in a glaring area of need — but at a serious overpayment of current assets.If your car breaks down and you need a part, well, of course you’re better off getting the part, but if you paid $15,000 for a $1000 part, you got fleeced. Adding Larsson was not vision; it was blue collar mechanic, and frankly spendthrift mechanic.

    I love analogy time.

    Let me try.

    I had a house. All my friends thought it was worth $700,000. Awesome.

    I put it on the market for $700,000. No one bought it.
    Lowered the price to $650,000. No one bought it.
    Lowered the price to $600,000. No one bought it.
    .
    .
    Lowered the price to $400,000. Someone bought it.

    Now all my friends think I’m an idiot because I lost that deal…

    Dave.

  83. pocession charge says:

    Rondo:
    Not all trades are equal.Chia traded a #16 and #33 in the so called strongest draft in over a decade for a player who wasn’teven the bestD on his AHL team and had skating issues.

    Chia never got a backup goalie2 timesgot lucky Talbot never got hurt.

    Signed Lucic to a longterm deal in a league that has been getting faster and faster. I like him but not for the price or term.

    Face-offs

    Well since you are not being fair, I’ll add to your post:

    Signed Benning, which cost the team no assets to acquire, and is trending to be a top four defenseman.

    Signed Caggiula, which cost the team no assets to acquire, and is trending to be a top nine forward.

    Brought in a respectable, sought-after coaching staff.

    Developed our prospects properly(ish): LB backup, Reinhart and JP in the minors.

    Fixed a giant, gaping hole on right defense with Larsson who is effective and good value. Also added a capable veteran defenseman Russell who was effective and added depth.

    Only signed one long term deal (Lucic) who happened to have the best boxcars of all the UFA’s signed last summer to equivalent deals. We also cannot measure the effect that he had in the dressing room even though his teammates sing his praises.

    And you bring up faceoffs?

  84. pocession charge says:

    delooper:
    I see Chiarelli as a giant breath of fresh air for the Oilers.It’s difficult to criticize his moves from a big-picture perspective.I did not like some of his early trades (Petry) but that probably has to do with him paying-attention to the other members of Oilers management.You want a GM that listens and learns.That trade maybe taught him a little bit about who to listen to. . .

    MacT traded Petry at the trade deadline in 2015 before Chia was hired.

  85. Bank Shot says:

    Doug McLachlan: This was my sense as well.

    I’ve spent way, way too much time playing with the CapFriendly Expansion Draft Tool and have to say my sense is that Reinhart is not selected for just that reason.I am increasingly optimistic that Chia can offer up a pick and or prospect to McPhee to do the Oilers a solid and select Pouliot.

    Who do you have as Vegas’ most popular defense selections?

    Well Brodin is picked nearly all the time in expansion mocks. Seeing McNabb a lot. Luke Schenn’s name is throw out there a lot. Petrovic from Florida. Button had Davidson on his list.

    It’s pretty hard to speculate who exactly will be available until we get to see the finalized lists, but without question there will be a tonne of established NHL defenders on the unprotected list.

  86. Johnny skid says:

    DaveWatchesHockey: I love analogy time.

    Let me try.

    I had a house.All my friends thought it was worth $700,000.Awesome.

    I put it on the market for $700,000.No one bought it.
    Lowered the price to $650,000.No one bought it.
    Lowered the price to $600,000.No one bought it.
    .
    .
    Lowered the price to $400,000.Someone bought it.

    Now all my friends think I’m an idiot because I lost that deal…

    Dave.

    should have used a realtor!

  87. Ducey says:

    The Hermit:
    Is everyone forgetting that to keep Schultz the Oilers would have to qualify him at around 4 million per?

    He gone.

    And he was being booed mercilessly by the fans. That’s not usually conducive to restoring a player’s confidence.

  88. Ducey says:

    Side: ….. Bruce Wayne?

    Not nearly condescending enough.

    More like Robin.

  89. pocession charge says:

    anjinsan:
    Edmonton hockey greatness was all due to a genius hockey player and a coach/GM who creatively built on that.

    That genius hockey player was better not by being bigger, faster, stronger, more skilled, but by being GREAT at out-anticipating and creatively using his vision to play steps ahead of the foe.His vision and play rubbed off on the rest of the team.

    A GM can play the same way, win by being better at seeing where things are going and creatively using that vision.Alternatively, the other ways a GM can play are either to go into win-now mode or to go into build for the future mode; the first mode trades future assets for present assets and the other sacrifices current assets for future assets.

    For me, Chiarelli was brought in because of the luck of McDavid.Once in, he was in win now mode.He was also in Chiarelli mode which is to favor the heavy, play hard game.Chiarelli mode is also not being good with high-end talent and bloating contracts.What Chiarelli is NOT is a brilliant vision guy.

    Chiarelli hired a very competent, play hard, systems coach.Solid.Look what a difference that makes!Chiarelli brought in Kassian, Maroon, and Lucic.Solid.Look what a difference that makes!However, Lucic was brought in on a seriously bloated contract — Chiarelli mortgaged the future for now.

    Larsson was added in a glaring area of need — but at a serious overpayment of current assets.If your car breaks down and you need a part, well, of course you’re better off getting the part, but if you paid $15,000 for a $1000 part, you got fleeced. Adding Larsson was not vision; it was blue collar mechanic, and frankly spendthrift mechanic.

    And the Reinhart trade: complete incompetence.Reinhart was supposed to be a Larsson.But Harvard educated Chiarelli didn’t do his damn homework.Bad bad bad.Both #16 and #33 were going to be serious 1st round grade prospects in THAT draft.Pissing away Barzal or Kyle Connor and then Carlo??!!Or if you don’t like those picks, there was Chabot, White, Svetchnikov, Samsonov, or a trade down for maybe get three serious 1st round grade prospects, like Carlo, Kylington, and Greenway!Lord have mercy!No homework and no vision.

    Finally, ah ain’t packin’ no lunch, LT, nosiree, but I disagree on Schultz.Something could and should have been done to salvage him.He’s proved better than Shattenkirk and Harvard smart Chiarelli was going to trade Hall for Shattenkirk.Schultz makes a serious difference for the Pens; the worthy and entitled Shattenkirk didn’t do shit for the Caps.

    Did a Harvard graduate steal your girlfriend? Did your application to Harvard get rejected, forcing you to go to Brock University? Other than that, well….you wrote some words.

  90. Offside says:

    DaveWatchesHockey,

    As a staunch capitalist, I agree with this analogy. The worth of an object is what the market tells you it is, not what you feel it should be.
    As stats guys would say, the numbers don’t lie

  91. Oilin4 says:

    Ducey: And he was being booed mercilessly by the fans. That’s not usually conducive to restoring a player’s confidence.

    Maybe if we had paid Schultz $4M to be our third pair we wouldn’t have signed Lucic. Remember this comment when you hate the Lucic contract in 2019.

    …but then we probably don’t sign Benning either.

  92. Johnny says:

    knighttown:
    I hope you don’t get defensive about this and consider the merits of using a different evaluation method…

    You can’t use a quantifiable 7-2-2 win-loss-meh record if you’re going to evaluate trades from one side only.Only 2 of these trades can be measured this way because in the other 14 examples both parties accomplished their goal.

    You have Justin Schultz, a player playing 1st pairing defense on (potentially) back-to-back champions, being dealt for a 3rd rounder as a win.Then you have the Ducks dumping Maroon on the Oilers for less than nothing as another win.

    You must see the fallacy with this?

    Both were completely dependent on the situation the team was in at that moment.You know Chia’s motivation for moving Schultz so a return of nothing was a win. But you don’t know Murray’s reason for moving Maroon so you give Chia another win.These two trades are two sides of the same coin and both teams accomplished their goal.

    My humble recommendation if you want to move the conversation forward would be to only evaluate trades in which both teams valued and wanted the asset they were holding at the time..And only declare a winner if you believe the trading team would take the trade back.So many trades are win-wins.

    Kassian for Scrivens was an example of a trade where both players had negative value.So you can’t give a win to Chia for that one because of the player Kass became and then turn around and give a win to Chia for dumping Schultz who has been far superior than the return.

    The only two trades that qualify under the criteria of “both teams valued the asset they were holding” are:

    Larsson for Hall (obviously)

    Reinhart for draft picks (NYI didn’t want to move him but Oilers paid a price the Islanders couldn’t refuse)

    If you use my criteria I believe Chia would do a do-over on Reinhart (and Snow wouldn’t) therefore loss.On Hall for Larsson I believe both parties would do the same trade again today so tie.

    Even Talbot for picks was a scenario where the Rangers were moving him on that day regardless and only a couple of teams were in the biddng.Would the Rangers redo that trade?I’d say no more so than the Oilers redoing Schultz.They held a bidding war and got the best price they could.

    Maroon too.It’s really hard to evaluate because they Ducks had him with negative value (we know this because the asset was nothing and they retained salary) so it’s like an inverse Schultz.“Moving Patrick Maroon” was the asset Anaheim coveted so they accomplished their goal.

    And then there’s the weighting.You give two “wins” for Anders Nilsson?We traded nothing for Nilsson and then traded him for nothing.Two wins?I wish you were marking my exams.

    If I was evaluating Chia’s performance I’d have:

    1. Evaluateable trades; 0 wins, 1 loss and 1 tie. C
    2. Discard pile acquisitions; Maroon and Kass playing major rules is a massive win.Plus I’d sort of put Talbot here. A++
    2. Drafts- incomplete of course but some great arrows with Jones and Bear.B+
    3. International and College procurement- off the charts A+ with the delivery of two regular NHLers in Cags and Benning
    4. Free Agency- he got the best defense (Sekera) and the best LW (Lucic) in his two summers so I’d give him some credit for that.Paid dearly for Lucic but such is life in NHL free agency. B
    5. Contract negotiations- we’ll see in a few weeks

    What makes you think NJ would make the trade again if they had a “re-do”? NJ was a substantially worse team this year with essentially the same lineup (I posted TOI on here a couple weeks back for NJ 15-16 vs 16-17 and the only substantial change was the addition of Hall and the loss of Larsson).

    If a GM makes a trade and his team gets worse, he lost the trade.

    A GM’s job is to build the best team, not compile a roster full of good players.

  93. pocession charge says:

    DaveWatchesHockey: I love analogy time.

    Let me try.

    I had a house.All my friends thought it was worth $700,000.Awesome.

    I put it on the market for $700,000.No one bought it.
    Lowered the price to $650,000.No one bought it.
    Lowered the price to $600,000.No one bought it.
    .
    .
    Lowered the price to $400,000.Someone bought it.

    Now all my friends think I’m an idiot because I lost that deal…

    Dave.

    Yes because your house was located beside a river and your new house is not.

  94. Chachi says:

    geowal:
    Joined the reams of Calgary unemployed today, looks like I’ll have more time to follow the draft and comment on here!

    That sucks. I hope your employment status changes for the better in an extremely short period of time.

  95. Johnny says:

    Lowetide: “NJ got the better player in the deal”.

    Based on what? That Hall is a better skater? A better stick handler?

    Hall may be a better LW than Larsson but he should be. That’s his position and his skills, for the most part, suit it.

    Larsson has a bigger positive impact on winning hockey games than Taylor Hall. A lot of that has to do with the position he plays and he plays defense quite well.

  96. delooper says:

    pocession charge,

    Oh! I think I love chiarelli then. Best thing to happen to the team in two decades.

  97. jake70 says:

    The Hermit:
    Is everyone forgetting that to keep Schultz the Oilers would have to qualify him at around 4 million per?

    He gone.

    Agreed. I posted at the time of his 2015 1 year extension from PC he would not be an Oiler starting in Sept. 2016, possibly even past the deadline in 2016, salary skewed way too high, and they don’t take pay cuts when qualifying (but there might be some situations they can shave 15% or something in a QO, not sure).

    Now, what does Pittsburgh do with him cap hit wise after he filled in for injured D men all year long for that team. Should be interesting. Doubt he’s a Penguin next year unless he really wants to stay.

  98. Kepler62 says:

    Don’t quite understand the argument for the Hall-Larsson trade being a loss. None of the other trades have you based them on “trade-day value”… it’s all what we got out of them afterwards.

    By that logic, Scrivens was better than Kassian as he was actually playing in the AHL instead of doing nothing, Purcell was more valuable than a 3rd round pick, Nilsson was an NHL backup and that 5th rounder has a really low probability of hitting NHL backup level – but we don’t analyze those like that, of course, because that’s the point with trades, they are a risk and you won’t know until later who won. A lot of those trades would be defined as losses by the logic you’ve used analyzing the Hall trade.

    I’d say it’s time to say that yes, on draft day it looked like a massive risk and some would say downright loss right there. But looking at it later, as was done with the rest of those trades, shows it has significantly improved Edmonton’s team.

    Chiarelli took a risk, and won. It shows in the standings. It shows in the on-ice product. As a final measure – even Calgary fans know it, and that’s generally a good fan measure for how Edmonton’s trades have gone, and vice versa.

  99. fifthcartel says:

    russ99,

    I’m not convinced Russell is any better defensively.

  100. Btrain says:

    I am not ready to pack my lunch regarding Schultz. Certainly highnisght is a luxury I now have that has influenced my opinion. However, you can’t tell me Schultz couldn’t have flourished with Larson taking over the heavy minutes on the right side and he, benning, and gyba/Russel placed in the bottom 2 RD slots. If you look at this season, as a result of injury I think it’s possible that Edmontons D were as good if not better then the Pens and Schultz still had a hell of a season. I don’t often disagree with Mr. Lowetide but in this case, Schultz represents a player the oilers lack for that elusive balance often mentioned on this blog.

  101. jtblack says:

    Kepler62,

    Good Points. The debate(s) continue. All trades are debatable, this one will go down in Oilers history as the most discussed / polarizing …

    When Gretz was traded some fans swore off the Oilers forever.
    When Smyth was traded same thing …
    Hall obviously had the same type of Fan impact …

  102. jtblack says:

    anjinsan,

    “Larsson was added in a glaring area of need — but at a serious overpayment of current assets. If your car breaks down and you need a part, well, of course you’re better off getting the part, but if you paid $15,000 for a $1000 part, you got fleeced”

    The GM’s prior to PC were not willing to pay the price or any price and they were left standing at the side of the road hitchhiking every year that the playoffs came around. Overpay or Hitch Hike??

  103. dustrock says:

    I think we have to look at all his signings, including coaching staff, college players, and over-agers like Mantha. Even getting Gretzky back looks good on Chiarelli even if he had nothing to do with it.

    I hate the Lucic signing and the Reinhart trade but he was at least trying to address areas of need. Reinhart was going to grow with the McDavid core.

    I also think we have to look at his draft record and I think he’s generally had a pretty good 2 years with some deep picks that are looking excellent.

    Lucic, like Reinhart, was about being familiar with a past winner – Green with Griffin, and Chia with Lucic.

  104. dustrock says:

    And yes on Larsson /Hall, hard to give this trade to Chiarelli alone when he was dealing with 10 years of incompetent management and a need for the team that the entire world knew about.

  105. knighttown says:

    Johnny: What makes you think NJ would make the trade again if they had a “re-do”?NJ was a substantially worse team this year with essentially the same lineup (I posted TOI on here a couple weeks back for NJ 15-16 vs 16-17 and the only substantial change was the addition of Hall and the loss of Larsson).

    If a GM makes a trade and his team gets worse, he lost the trade.

    A GM’s job is to build the best team, not compile a roster full of good players.

    Really? So the way to evaluate a trade is whether our win/loss record improved? Wow that Justin Fontaine trade really worked in our favour. Once we got him from Minnesota for Taylor Beck we nearly won two rounds in the playoffs and Minnesota crumbled down the stretch and got destroyed in the first round.

    Or it could be that Edmonton got better because they were insanely healthy especially in the top 6/top 4 and got Vezina goaltending.

    I don’t know whether NJ wants a mulligan or not but what I do know is that when a team makes on average 10 trades a year PLUS brings in rookies, free agents, has internal growth +/- injuries, judging a trade based on win-loss record seems a bit nuts.

    Correlation…causation and all that.

  106. hunter1909 says:

    jtblack: When Gretz was traded some fans swore off the Oilers forever.
    When Smyth was traded same thing …
    Hall obviously had the same type of Fan impact …

    I used to be a huge Hall fan. Then Hall cheap shotted Kassian before curling up like a baby, waiting until the zebras saved him. That was when I decided Taylor Hall was nothing more than a gutless puke.

  107. Professor Q says:

    knighttown,

    False equivalencies are a thing. Learn them.

  108. hunter1909 says:

    You also have to wonder how “Oil Change” contributed to the swelling of the tiny heads like Hall, Eberle, etc.

    Treating unproven players like stars rarely ends well.

  109. John Chambers says:

    Btrain,

    By the end of Schultz’ tenure in Edmonton you could tell it wasn’t going to work out. The Oilers weren’t going to qualify him at $4M+, and Schultz wasn’t going to accept a pay cut to stay.

    I am however surprised that MacLellan and the coaching staff weren’t able to suss out a few of Jultz’ weaknesses, and leverage him to his strengths over the first 2/3rd’s or last season. He didn’t seem to develop under MacLellan at all, and one of my hopes when TMac came in was that he would be able to uncover some of Jultz’ potential.

    Which led to one of my favorite Chiarelli quotes: “he can’t defend”.

  110. Ducey says:

    Btrain:
    I am not ready to pack my lunch regarding Schultz. Certainly highnisght is a luxury I now have that has influenced my opinion. However, you can’t tell me Schultz couldn’t have flourished with Larson taking over the heavy minutes on the right side and he, benning, and gyba/Russel placed in the bottom 2 RD slots. If you look at this season, as a result of injury I think it’s possible that Edmontons D were as good of not better then the Pens and Schultz still had a help of a season. I don’t often disagree with Mr. Lowetide but in this case, Schultz represents a player the oilers lack for that elusive balance often mentioned on this blog.

    Ignoring the reality that Chia did not have Larsson or Benning at the time, and had to pay $4+ million for Schultz who was -22 and had 10 points in 45 games, and was being booed off the ice, and had an adjective named after him for his inability to defend. Ignoring all that.

    You think the Oilers would be well served to sign Jultz to a $5 million per year contract this summer?

    I don’t.

    He gets gravy minutes, and most of his value is based on his pp points. Just 23 of his 51 points were 5 on 5. Reggie and Oscar had 20, 5 on 5.

    If you watch PIT he still can’t defend, and takes advantage of a system that allows him to fire the puck into the neutral zone to a streaking forward. I am quite sure he would struggle in EDM again. Probably not to the same extent as he did before because there is more shelter. But he is not suited to TMac’s system, or really even to the western conference.

  111. jtblack says:

    knighttown,

    I think this is what makes this “debate” so interesting. All Fans will look at different stats / data / results to assist with their point of view …

    I guess the real question to ask is; What stats / data matter when comparing any trade? or any players?

  112. Chachi says:

    John Chambers:
    Btrain,

    By the end of Schultz’ tenure in Edmonton you could tell it wasn’t going to work out. The Oilers weren’t going to qualify him at $4M+, and Schultz wasn’t going to accept a pay cut to stay.

    I am however surprised that MacLellan and the coaching staff weren’t able to suss out a few of Jultz’ weaknesses, and leverage him to his strengths over the first 2/3rd’s or last season. He didn’t seem to develop under MacLellan at all, and one of my hopes when TMac came in was that he would be able to uncover some of Jultz’ potential.

    Which led to one of my favorite Chiarelli quotes: “he can’t defend”.

    Seeing Jultz play this year it is obvious he was in full on Lupul mode last year. No coaching staff was going to get anything out of him. He is still physically weak and unable to defend well when the other team is in his zone, but the effort level he displays is off the charts compared to his play his last year in Edmonton. It is great that he was able to resurrect his career, but it wasn’t happening with the Oilers.

  113. season not played says:

    hunter1909: I used to be a huge Hall fan. Then Hall cheap shotted Kassian before curling up like a baby, waiting until the zebras saved him. That was when I decided Taylor Hall was nothing more than a gutless puke.

    Hilarious.

    And, in my opinion, correct.
    Even a rat like Kesler will answer if he has to.

    Also, I have to think those matching retirement contracts didn’t help anything. Can’t really blame the players on that. Just incredibly poor judges of talent and what it takes to build a winning hockey team running the show for years.

    They should have realized when the “core” lit up the A on the power play but couldn’t figure out how to consistently win hockey games there was going to be a problem.

  114. jtblack says:

    knighttown,

    I also somehow think if New Jersey rose by 30+ points in the standings and Edmonton faltered again, that this “data” would be fuel for the Hall Supporters …

  115. Diablo says:

    John Chambers:
    Btrain,

    By the end of Schultz’ tenure in Edmonton you could tell it wasn’t going to work out. The Oilers weren’t going to qualify him at $4M+, and Schultz wasn’t going to accept a pay cut to stay.

    I am however surprised that MacLellan and the coaching staff weren’t able to suss out a few of Jultz’ weaknesses, and leverage him to his strengths over the first 2/3rd’s or last season. He didn’t seem to develop under MacLellan at all, and one of my hopes when TMac came in was that he would be able to uncover some of Jultz’ potential.

    Which led to one of my favorite Chiarelli quotes: “he can’t defend”.

    I think it went both ways – the organization (and by extension the fans) had grown tired of Justin’s “schultzing” but Justin had grown tired of the organization and the fans expectations – the failure to meet those expectations just compounded things until his game was a complete mess.

    He needed a “change of scenery” where he could go and rebuild-up his game and confidence from scratch, without the media and fans constantly ripping it to shreds. When he went to Pittsburg, he started out with the most sheltered minutes possible, succeeded at that level and was then progressed to the next. What we see now did not happen overnight, but is the result of a process that has executed in a way that most benefitted the player, in an environment that allowed him to do so.

    He was effectively lost as player by the time Chia and TMac got here – they tried to make it work, but the environment was already toxic by then, and its hard for anyone to succeed in any vocation under such circumstances.

  116. AsiaOil says:

    Hall for Larsson = loss?

    Please name one top pair RHD of Larsson’s age/contract who was traded for less than a player of Taylor Hall’s value. Should be easy right?

  117. Side says:

    Johnny: What makes you think NJ would make the trade again if they had a “re-do”?NJ was a substantially worse team this year with essentially the same lineup (I posted TOI on here a couple weeks back for NJ 15-16 vs 16-17 and the only substantial change was the addition of Hall and the loss of Larsson).

    If a GM makes a trade and his team gets worse, he lost the trade.

    A GM’s job is to build the best team, not compile a roster full of good players.

    Is this argument implying that teams who ice the same roster will perform the same year after year?

  118. geowal says:

    Chachi,

    Yeah thanks, definitely will take some getting used to, 9 years same company. Ah well, one door closes, another opens, somewhere.

  119. spoiler says:

    All this Math and hockey still has to take trips to the Stone Age.

    Shocked, shocked I am that there are different opinions on trades. I wonder why that might be?

    Hope Chia wins this thing if only to shove it up the asses of the 10 percent or so of Oiler fans who are still burning candles for the Hall trade.

    I would also like to welcome and apologize to all the new fans this team has gained over this season and its playoff run, who don’t give two flying ducks about Hall being exchanged for Lucic and yet have to endure what has become an absolute non-issue among the vast majority of fans but yet still raises its ugly head amongst the internet’s squeaky wheels, hot taekers and click-baiters, ad nauseum.

  120. frjohnk says:

    When one looks at players and their TOI % from the 15-16 season compared to this year, you get this.

    Forward All TOI %
    15-17________________16-17
    1 TAYLOR.HALL 31.8% CONNOR.MCDAVID 34.7%
    2 LEON.DRAISAITL 26.4% LEON.DRAISAITL 31.3%
    3 MARK.LETESTU 26.2% RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 29.3%
    4 JORDAN.EBERLE 24.9% MILAN.LUCIC 28.4%
    5 TEDDY.PURCELL 21.5% JORDAN.EBERLE 27.8%
    6 RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 21.3% PATRICK.MAROON 27.3%
    7 LAURI.KORPIKOSKI 20.1% MARK.LETESTU 22.4%
    8 MATT.HENDRICKS 18.3% ZACK.KASSIAN 19.6%
    9 BENOIT.POULIOT 17.9% BENOIT.POULIOT 19.0%
    10 NAIL.YAKUPOV 17.3% DRAKE.CAGGIULA 16.0%
    11 CONNOR.MCDAVID 17.2% ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 9.2%
    12 ANTON.LANDER 15.0% MATT.HENDRICKS 9.1%
    13 IIRO.PAKARINEN 13.8% JESSE.PULJUJARVI 6.4%
    14 ZACK.KASSIAN 9.1% TYLER.PITLICK 6.2%
    15 PATRICK.MAROON 5.1% ANTON.LANDER 4.3%
    16 LUKE.GAZDIC 3.7% DAVID.DESHARNAIS 4.1%
    17 JUJHAR.KHAIRA 3.2% IIRO.PAKARINEN 2.5%
    18 ROB.KLINKHAMMER 2.7% JUJHAR.KHAIRA 1.9%
    19 ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 1.9% TAYLOR.BECK 0.4%
    20 ADAM.CRACKNELL 1.8%
    21 ANDREW.MILLER 1.1%

    If you compare the 15-16 forward roster to the 16-17 in where they place on the team in TOI, you probably have to go to line 10 or 11 where you find a better player in 15-16 compared to the 16-17 player.

    Last year we had a handful of games in which Korpikoski, Hendricks, Gazdic and Klinkhammer were in the bottom 6. Are any of those guys actual NHL players?

    Dmen All TOI %
    15-16 16-17
    1 ANDREJ.SEKERA 37.7% OSCAR.KLEFBOM 40.2%
    2 DARNELL.NURSE 29.8% ANDREJ.SEKERA 37.7%
    3 MARK.FAYNE 24.7% ADAM.LARSSON 35.0%
    4 BRANDON.DAVIDSON 20.8% KRIS.RUSSELL 31.7%
    5 ERIC.GRYBA 20.3% MATTHEW.BENNING 22.6%
    6 JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 19.3% DARNELL.NURSE 16.4%
    7 OSCAR.KLEFBOM 14.0% ERIC.GRYBA 14.2%
    8 GRIFFIN.REINHART 11.2% JORDAN.OESTERLE 0.8%
    9 JORDAN.OESTERLE 7.9% DILLON.SIMPSON 0.7%
    10 ADAM.CLENDENING 6.7% MARK.FAYNE 0.7%
    11 ADAM.PARDY 3.9%
    12 NIKITA.NIKITIN 3.5%
    13 BRAD.HUNT 2.1%
    14 ANDREW.FERENCE 1.7%

    Some will say that Davidson in 15-16 was better than Russell in 16-17, but regardless, the D core in 16-17 blows away the D core in 15-16.

    We had 1 top 4 Dmen for the whole year ( Sekera) and 1 top 4 D man who played 30 games, the rest of the D were 3rd pairing, AHL level Dmen last year. Few players had to play over their heads in 16-17 compared to the year before on the back end.

    A healthier roster , actual NHLer additions, growth from the young guns, and growth from players who were picked up off the scrap heap ( Maroon, Kassian) playing in 16-17 are the biggest reasons on why the Oilers saw such a big improvement. How many non NHLers played in 16-17 compared to the season before?

    Chia deserves credit for bettering this team. While this team is not elite, yet, it can play some different styles which include a skilled game, a physical game, and a defensive game. Something we couldnt do before. Chia added guys like Lucic, Benning and Caguilla through free agency and dumped guys like Korpikoski and Nikitin. Guys like Kassian and Maroon picked up from the scrap heap were risky bets that turned out very well and these were all additions of actual NHL players which we needed.

    But this team was better also due to health. Last year we were among the leaders in man games lost. McDavid, Klefbom and RNH among others lost significant time. This year,again we lost many man games to injuries, but most of them were of the Pitlick, Ference variety, Russell was probably our most important loss and he was gone for only a handful of games.

    I would caution the chances of regression have increased with the Sekera injury. Our very healthy roster in 16-17 did not really have to really test the depth of the organization. If we have injury trouble next year like we had in 15-16, there will be major speed bumps for this team.

    Chia has his work cut out for him. Not only does he have to stick handle around the cap, but the expectation that this team improves on this season is pretty much set in stone. A missed playoffs probably gets him fired. A first round exit will have people up in arms. A 2nd round exit will not be good enough for many fans/media. I think most expect 3rd round or better. I know I do but also understand that if injuries impact this team like in 15-16, that is wishful thinking.

  121. Jethro Tull says:

    AsiaOil:
    Hall for Larsson = loss?

    Please name one top pair RHD of Larsson’s age/contract who was traded for less than a player of Taylor Hall’s value. Should be easy right?

    Seth Jones?

  122. frjohnk says:

    AsiaOil:
    Hall for Larsson = loss?

    Please name one top pair RHD of Larsson’s age/contract who was traded for less than a player of Taylor Hall’s value. Should be easy right?

    Off the top of my head, most of the RHD with term ( at least 1 year left) that were traded in the last few years.

    Subban for Weber
    Weber for Subban
    Boychuk for 2 seconds
    Gudbranson for a late 1st and prospect
    Hamilton for magic beans
    Pysyk for a LHD ( Kulikov)
    Larsson for Hall
    Jones for Johansen

    There are probably more but good RHD rarely get traded so its hard to find comparables to Larssons age and contract.

    Jones, Gudbranson and Hamilton are probably somewhere in the ballpark to Larsson.

  123. flea says:

    Jethro Tull: Seth Jones?

    Maybe only difference in that trade is the Jackets had to sign Jones (I think) so the contract situation wasn’t as clear as Larsson.

  124. pocession charge says:

    Jethro Tull: Seth Jones?

    You think Ryan Johansen has less trade value than Taylor Hall? Not so sure about that (and I don’t really like Johansen).

  125. season not played says:

    Jethro Tull: Seth Jones?

    I don’t think Nashville would trade Ryan Johansen straight up for Taylor Hall.

  126. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: Seth Jones?

    I don’t think Nashville would trade Ryan Johansen for Taylor Hall straight up. Johansen plays a more important position.

    Edit: Literally what everyone else said.

  127. Jethro Tull says:

    pocession charge,

    season not played,

    Ry Jo has played twenty less games than Hall, but Hall has scored 93 more points, however, Ry Jo does play center.

  128. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: Ry Jo does play center.

    And that makes all the difference.

  129. pocession charge says:

    Taylor Hall fans will loathe this statement but I think around the league he is viewed as a good (not elite) offensive player who is one-dimensional and has a petulant attitude. He also plays the least important position and has an injury history. His fan base in Edmonton would disagree with this but they aren’t making the trades.

  130. Jethro Tull says:

    Chachi: Johansen plays a more important position.

    Hal plays ‘river pusher’. Position doesn’t apply as much when comparing these players. He can play with a weaker center and make them better. Can Ry Jo do the same with weaker wingers?

  131. Side says:

    Ryan Johansen

    GP: 433
    Goals: 101
    Assists: 187
    Points: 288

    Taylor Hall

    GP: 453
    Goals: 152
    Assists: 229
    Points: 381

    I guess being a center compensates for almost 100 point difference?

    I don’t know about you guys, but I would trade my center for someone with that kind of offense.

  132. AsiaOil says:

    So boxcars are the be all stat now? Goodness grief. Taylor Hall does not get you Seth Jones no how no way. Nashville was only trading him for a 1C and top line C are worth way more than a LW. Gudbranson is a 3rd pair dman. Hamilton is the only possible comparable and we offered more to the deranged Bruins than Calgary did. While Hamilton is clearly a better offensive player, he is also clearly far behind Larsson defensively.

    Seems like a new medical condition has been identified – THIS – Taylor Hall Infatuation Syndrome.

  133. Oddspell says:

    Chachi,

    I imagine it depends on the team, but I think Nashville was probably hunting specifically for a #1 center.

  134. jtblack says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Hall did push the Top 3 NJ Centres to 45, 40 & 24 pt seasons. Not sure whom he played most with.

  135. Side says:

    AsiaOil:
    So boxcars are the be all stat now? Goodness grief. Taylor Hall does not get you Seth Jones no how no way. Nashville was only trading him for a 1C and top line C are worth way more than a LW. Gudbranson is a 3rd pair dman. Hamilton is the only possible comparable and we offered more to the deranged Bruins than Calgary did. While Hamilton is clearly a better offensive player, he is also clearly far behind Larsson defensively.

    Seems like a new medical condition has been identified – THIS – Taylor Hall Infatuation Syndrome.

    Hall also has good fancy stats. The evidence that Hall is a very good player has been posted around many, many times, but obviously people don’t want to acknowledge it which is why I did a broad comparison.

    If Nashville badly needed a winger, I guarantee that Hall would have been more than enough for Seth Jones. Don’t you?

  136. season not played says:

    Side:
    Ryan Johansen

    GP: 433
    Goals: 101
    Assists: 187
    Points: 288

    Taylor Hall

    GP: 453
    Goals: 152
    Assists: 229
    Points: 381

    I guess being a center compensates for almost 100 point difference?

    I don’t know about you guys, but I would trade my center for someone with that kind of offense.

    There is no doubt Hall came out of the box a better player than Johansen, but as it is turning out with a few players from the 2010 draft, Hall is not the best player right now out of that draft. Just off the top of my head, I would rather have Seguin, Johansen, Tarasenko, Fowler and Kuznetsov. That is where I will stop without consulting hockey DB. Hall rang up a few points in his first few years , because he was NHL ready, while the other guys had to feel their way in to the league to reach their ceiling. That is your 100 points difference.

  137. Side says:

    season not played: That is your 100 points difference.

    And Hall did that on a team that was consistently one of the worst teams in the league each year.

    I wonder what Hall can do on a good team.

    Or, I wonder how Johansen, Seguin, Tarasenko, Fowler and Kuznetsov would have done on the Oilers during the same period.

  138. StixMalone says:

    AsiaOil: Seems like a new medical condition has been identified – THIS – Taylor Hall Infatuation Syndrome.
      (Quote)  (Reply)

    Ha love it…

  139. blainer says:

    season not played: There is no doubt Hall came out of the box a better player than Johansen, but as it is turning out with a few players from the 2010 draft, Hall is not the best player right now out of that draft.Just off the top of my head, I would rather have Seguin, Johansen, Tarasenko, Fowler and Kuznetsov. That is where I will stop without consulting hockey DB. Hall rang up a few points in his first few years , because he was NHL ready, while the other guys had to feel their way in to the league to reach their ceiling. That is your 100 points difference.

    Was about to say the same thing. Johansen had to develop. It happens. For me it’s what have ya done for me lately.

    IMO one should look at the last two years to properly rate these two players. In that light there is no way I take Hall over RJ. Again center is the more important position.

    Hope some day soon Hall gets to play on a good team to show he can still be elite stay healthy and not fall down !!

  140. Stanley says:

    AsiaOil,

    Dougie Hamilton?

  141. Bag of Pucks says:

    AsiaOil:
    So boxcars are the be all stat now? Goodness grief. Taylor Hall does not get you Seth Jones no how no way. Nashville was only trading him for a 1C and top line C are worth way more than a LW. Gudbranson is a 3rd pair dman. Hamilton is the only possible comparable and we offered more to the deranged Bruins than Calgary did. While Hamilton is clearly a better offensive player, he is also clearly far behind Larsson defensively.

    Seems like a new medical condition has been identified – THIS – Taylor Hall Infatuation Syndrome.

    The good news if you’re infected with THIS is many thousands of Oiler fans also suffer from THIS. THIS primarily affects the hippocampus area of the brain where feelings of longing and nostalgia originate. THIS is not fatal but THIS does severely affect quality of life with sufferers reporting an inability to truly appreciate winning hockey without accompanying symptoms of misery and complaint.

    No cure has as yet been identified for THIS but research indicates that a healthy dosage of ‘Stanley Cup’ shows positive signs for immediate remission. If untreated for too long, THIS can escalate into THOSE – Taylor Hall Obsessive Sycophant Epidemic.

    Two holistic alternative treatments, THAT – Taylor Hall Accepts Trade, and THATWCY – Taylor Hall Accepts Trade, Why Can’t You? are also showing encouraging signs for THOSE suffering with THIS.

  142. Side says:

    blainer:

    IMO one should look at the last two years to properly rate these two players. In that light there is no way I take Hall over RJ. Again center is the more important position.

    Do you consider the teams the players play on to properly rate them?

  143. rickithebear says:

    the Measure of an organization is not Making the Playoffs it is winning as many championships in as shortest time possible

    Modern Era: 67-68 to 16-17 50 years 49 seasons

    the Standard Repetitive Cup Core:

    Game roster
    2 golaies – 60
    12 Fwds – 360
    6D – 180

    1: top 10 HD goalie:
    1 per 6 Goalies

    2. 3+ top 60 HD Dmen
    1 out of 3 Dmen
    Prefer 2 top 30
    1 out of 6 dmen

    3. 5+ top 125 Forwards 16G and 39Pt year to year.
    1 out of 2.8 Forwards

    when trading players.
    you must Consider the cup core ratio’s.
    we traded A top 15 HD dman last 3 years
    180/15 is 1 in 12 dmen

    on average 100 fwds achieve 15G 44P each season
    that would be 45G 132p over 3 seasons.

    104 forwards have achieved that.
    Current oilers:
    Eberle 69G 161p 29 forwards achieved this.
    Lucic 61G 149p
    Mcdavid 46G 148P
    Draisatl 48G 137P
    RNH 54G 133P 85 playes achieved

    Hall achieved
    60G 156P

    50 Forwards achieved
    60G 149P

  144. hunter1909 says:

    Side: I wonder what Hall can do on a good team.

    The irony contained in this statement runs as deep as the Mariana Trench.

  145. Ducey says:

    Stanley:
    AsiaOil,

    Dougie Hamilton?

    Isn’t the rumour that Chia tried to get him, was going to pay more than CGY, but BOS decided to go with CGY?

    So, that did not appear to be an option.

    Also regarding Ryan Johansen v Hall, note that it is not who the math says is the better player, its who GM’s see as the better player. NASH wants defensive, physical players normally. They value defense and center. It seems clear to me that Johansen fits their mold perfectly. Plus they had a need for a 1 C. Hall didn’t meet their needs or preference, even assuming they liked him.

    As it happens, Hall pushed the river to a .736 p/g this year (53 pts). Johansen was .744 (60 pts), did not miss a game and played a much more important position. On top of that he led his team in CF% (that would be the river pushing stat)

    Maybe Poile knows what he is doing, eh?

  146. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: Hal plays ‘river pusher’.Position doesn’t apply as much when comparing these players.He can play with a weaker center and make them better.Can Ry Jo do the same with weaker wingers?

    He plays left wing, doesn’t take face-offs or kill penalties and doesn’t have much of a defensive reputation – all things that GMs also value when looking at their lineups. It might not be right or fair, but that is the way it is. Johansen is the more valuable player in today’s NHL.

  147. Chachi says:

    Oddspell:
    Chachi,

    I imagine it depends on the team, but I think Nashville was probably hunting specifically for a #1 center.

    I agree, they were looking for a #1 centre.

  148. Side says:

    hunter1909: The irony contained in this statement runs as deep as the Mariana Trench.

    Feeling dense today as I am missing the ironic part.

  149. frjohnk says:

    While its with an asterisk, I like the Larsson Hall trade and wouldnt redo it.

    But here is a question.

    How much does Larsson move the dial compared to Hall in the 15-16 season if this trade was made in the summer of 2015 instead of 2016 and everything else remains the same ( injuries, lack of depth, many players playing above their head)?

    This would the top forwards 6 in TOI if Hall is gone that year.

    LEON.DRAISAITL
    MARK.LETESTU
    JORDAN.EBERLE
    RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS
    LAURI.KORPIKOSKI
    MATT.HENDRICKS

    The top 4 D of 15-16 would look better though
    ANDREJ.SEKERA
    ADAM.LARRSON
    DARNELL.NURSE
    MARK.FAYNE

    2 top 4 Dmen, 2 guys who should be 3rd pairing/AHL.

  150. Ducey says:

    Chachi: He plays left wing, doesn’t take face-offs or kill penalties and doesn’t have much of a defensive reputation – all things that GMs also value when looking at their lineups. It might not be right or fair, but that is the way it is. Johansen is the more valuable player in today’s NHL.

    Is there anything that Hall does appreciably better than Johansen?

    Not trying to be a smartass, but it seems like stats like pp/g, p/60, CF%, pp efficiency, pk ability all are very close, or in Johansen’s favour.

  151. Chachi says:

    Side: Do you consider the teams the players play on to properly rate them?

    How do you rate the Columbus Blue Jackets teams that Ryan Johansen played on early in his career?

  152. AsiaOil says:

    Bag of Pucks: The good news if you’re infected with THIS is many thousands of Oiler fans also suffer from THIS. THIS primarily affects the hippocampus area of the brain where feelings of longing and nostalgia originate. THIS is not fatal but THIS does severely affect quality of life with sufferers reporting an inability to truly appreciate winning hockey without accompanying symptoms of misery and complaint.

    No cure has as yet been identified for THIS but research indicates that a healthy dosage of ‘Stanley Cup’ shows positive signs for immediate remission. If untreated for too long, THIS can escalate into THOSE – Taylor Hall Obsessive Sycophant Epidemic.

    Two holistic alternative treatments, THAT – Taylor Hall Accepts Trade, and THATWCY– Taylor Hall Accepts Trade, Why Can’t You? are also showing encouraging signs for THOSE suffering with THIS.

    Touche my friend 🙂

  153. Chachi says:

    Ducey: Is there anything that Hall does appreciably better than Johansen?

    Not trying to be a smartass, but it seems like stats like pp/g, p/60, CF%, pp efficiency, pk ability all are very close, or in Johansen’s favour.

    I think Taylor Hall is a wonderful player and I agree with you.

  154. Bag of Pucks says:

    Chachi: How do you rate the Columbus Blue Jackets teams that Ryan Johansen played on early in his career?

    10 lbs of shit in a 5 lb bag?

  155. Ducey says:

    Side: Feeling dense today as I am missing the ironic part.

    He is supposed to be a difference maker, yet never seems to make a difference for his team’s record.

  156. Chachi says:

    Bag of Pucks: 10 lbs of shit in a 5 lb bag?

    That is not being very kind to the bag of shit.

  157. Side says:

    Chachi: How do you rate the Columbus Blue Jackets teams that Ryan Johansen played on early in his career?

    Since 2010? Better than the Oilers with the exception of 2 seasons I believe and they had a lot more spikes in performance.

    The Oilers were more consistent in their poor performance.

  158. Thinker says:

    How are we not done with the GR trade? Right idea, wrong player identified. This falls on the OBC, who I assume were hyperventilating when PC asked about him.

    I’m over the Hall trade too. I don’t think the price was out of line, PC was talking to everyone, he knew what he was worth. It made the team better, and Taylor Hall has 3 years now that establish him as a 65pt player.

    Chiarelli has brought calm and intelligence to the gm position, which is huge after the “Do something Tambo” years. Just listening to him tell the media (think it was Rishaug) that Eberle is a good hockey player was awesome.

  159. Chachi says:

    Side: Since 2010? Better than the Oilers with the exception of 2 seasons I believe and they had a lot more spikes in performance.

    The Oilers were more consistent in their poor performance.

    The answer to the question was – Columbus was a bad team. They were a very bad team.

  160. Jethro Tull says:

    AsiaOil,

    Bag of Pucks,

    I really miss all the quality posters that have left in the last 2 weeks because of post like these.

    I try to answer a question. It stimulated debate, some for, some against. I’m pro-Hall. But now I must have a medical condition, otherwise I can’t possible hold to my point of view.

    It IS possible to acknowledge that Hall is a very good player without being a complete dickhead about it. It IS also possible to debate his qualities in comparison to another player without being a dickhead about it.

    You guys argue it out, I’m bitter! (MST3K reference)

    I’m going riding. See you all tomorrow.

  161. Side says:

    Ducey: He is supposed to be a difference maker, yet never seems to make a difference for his team’s record.

    Just imagine how bad the Oilers would have been if they didn’t have Hall for those years.

    This is such a bizarre conversation. Individual difference makers rarely carry a team on their backs for an entire season. It’s a team game. A game that requires an NHL quality goaltender, an NHL quality defense and an NHL quality offense to be successful.

    In Hall’s tenure, how many of those years can you say he had an NHL quality defense and NHL quality goaltender behind him?

    Is it a winger’s job to play Goaltender and Defense in addition to being a winger?

    Do people forget how bad the Oilers were in the last 10 years? And by Oilers, I mean the entire team, not just Taylor Hall. We seem to be living in an era where if you refer to 2010 – 2016 Oilers there’s only 1 player on the team and his name is Taylor Hall. “But Taylor Hall didn’t carry the team to the playoffs on his back single handedly. Therefore, he is not a good player”

  162. Side says:

    Chachi: The answer to the question was – Columbus was a bad team. They were a very bad team.

    Not as bad as the Oilers as history shows, so……. not sure where you are going with this?

  163. Doug McLachlan says:

    I see that Steve Kournianos, aka The Draft Analyst, has his 2017 Mock Draft up, for the first round – others to follow in the days to come.

    Interesting names falling around the Oilers pick at #1 but I’m curious if anyone has any opinion on overage center from Tri-City, Morgan Geekie? Very nice jump in his counting stats from draft year to this one and at 6’2″ he isn’t undersized like so many players that get passed over.

  164. Ducey says:

    Side: Just imagine how bad the Oilers would have been if they didn’t have Hall for those years.

    This is such a bizarre conversation. Individual difference makers rarely carry a team on their backs for an entire season. It’s a team game. A game that requires an NHL quality goaltender, an NHL quality defense and an NHL quality offense to be successful.

    In Hall’s tenure, how many of those years can you say he had an NHL quality defense and NHL quality goaltender behind him?

    Is it a winger’s job to play Goaltender and Defense in addition to being a winger?

    Do people forget how bad the Oilers were in the last 10 years? And by Oilers, I mean the entire team, not just Taylor Hall.We seem to be living in an era where if you refer to 2010 – 2016 Oilers there’s only 1 player on the team and his name is Taylor Hall. “But Taylor Hall didn’t carry the team to the playoffs on his back single handedly. Therefore, he is not a good player”

    I was just trying to explain the alleged irony.

  165. Ducey says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    I see that Steve Kournianos, aka The Draft Analyst, has his 2017 Mock Draft up, for the first round – others to follow in the days to come.

    Interesting names falling around the Oilers pick at #1 but I’m curious if anyone has any opinion on overage center from Tri-City, Morgan Geekie?Very nice jump in his counting stats from draft year to this one and at 6’2″ he isn’t undersized like so many players that get passed over.

    Doesn’t sound cool enough for an 18 yr old, although those guys often turn out the most successful in the long run

  166. rickithebear says:

    the crux of the Data was that a top 15 HD dman: over last 3 years is
    360/15 1 in 12 Dmen

    Halls 60g 156P is 1 in 7.7 Fwds

    So when looking for Cup core
    1. Top 10 HD goalie
    1 in 6 golaies
    2. 3+ top 60 HD dmen
    1 in 6 Dmen
    3. 5+ top 125 Fwd
    1 in 2.9
    6/2.9 yo are 107% less likely to get a top 60 HD Dman.

    12/7.7 you 55.8% less likely to get a Top 15 HD Dman than a top 40 Fwd.
    yet we replaced Hall with a top 45 off Fwd.

  167. Side says:

    Ducey: I was just trying to explain the alleged irony.

    See, told you I am dense.

  168. Chachi says:

    Side: Not as bad as the Oilers as history shows, so……. not sure where you are going with this?

    You mocked someone for not considering quality of team when comparing players. I pointed out that Columbus was awful while Johansen was there. How do you need this explained to you?

  169. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    rickithebear,

    – Great post LT! Ricki, I’m not sure if I follow?

    – Is Larsson a top-20 RHD in this league?, in your opinion?

  170. blainer says:

    Side: Do you consider the teams the players play on to properly rate them?

    If your asking me do I think Taylor would be a better player playing with Sid .. then yes.

  171. Bank Shot says:

    Side: Just imagine how bad the Oilers would have been if they didn’t have Hall for those years.

    They couldn’t have been much worse. 🙂

    I heard a lot of chatter during the lean years, that the kids were not to blame. That the team just lacked depth, and once they got that, the team would be off to the races.

    Well the team finally did get depth, and if anyone said that they believed that Eberle and RNH would contribute as little as they have to the winning effort, I think they’d be lying.

    Both of those guys have underperformed relative to expectations for certain.

    So it’s also possible that Taylor Hall would not contribute as much to a winning effort as we think he would have either, and it could be 4-5 years before we see him get a chance so it will be an academic argument I guess.

  172. Side says:

    Chachi: You mocked someone for not considering quality of team when comparing players. I pointed out that Columbus was awful while Johansen was there. How do you need this explained to you?

    “Mocked someone” lol what? When?

    You did point that out. But people are also pointing to NJ’s position in the standings and blaming Hall for it. It’s a good thing Johansen didn’t get traded to a team like NJ this year. Otherwise people would be saying CBJ’s amazing year this year was because they ditched Johansen and got a Defenseman.

    Sorry if I mocked you somewhere in my post here.

  173. Side says:

    Bank Shot: They couldn’t have been much worse. 🙂

    I heard a lot of chatter during the lean years, that the kids were not to blame. That the team just lacked depth, and once they got that, the team would be off to the races.

    Well the team finally did get depth, and if anyone said that they believed that Eberle and RNH would contribute as little as they have to the winning effort, I think they’d be lying.

    Both of those guys have underperformed relative to expectations for certain.

    So it’s also possible that Taylor Hall would not contribute as much to a winning effort as we think he would have either, and it could be 4-5 years before we see him get a chance so it will be an academic argument I guess.

    Or maybe it’s because RNH and Eberle’s lack of production is because they don’t have a driver on their line like they did in Hall.

  174. Chachi says:

    Side: “Mocked someone” lol what? When?

    You did point that out. But people are also pointing to NJ’s position in the standings and blaming Hall for it. It’s a good thing Johansen didn’t get traded to a team like NJ this year. Otherwise people would be saying CBJ’s amazing year this year was because they ditched Johansen and got a Defenseman.

    Sorry if I mocked you somewhere in my post here.

    “Do you consider the teams the players play on to properly rate them?” I am sure you meant that in a nice way?

    I am in no way part of the group of people putting down Hall because New Jersey sucked this year. You tried to make the case that Hall is more valuable than Johansen because he put up great numbers on terrible teams. It was pointed out to you that Johansen did as well. You should probably ackowledge that. Nothing you wrote mocked me, but feel free to if it makes you feel good.

  175. Side says:

    Chachi: “Do you consider the teams the players play on to properly rate them?”I am sure you meant that in a nice way?

    I am in no way part of the group of people putting down Hall because New Jersey sucked this year. You tried to make the case that Hall is more valuable than Johansen because he put up great numbers on terrible teams. It was pointed out to you that Johansen did as well. You should probably ackowledge that. Nothing you wrote mocked me, but feel free to if it makes you feel good.

    Ok so blainer said this

    “IMO one should look at the last two years to properly rate these two players.”

    That is kind of a vague statement made by blainer. Do you know what blainer is looking at or suggesting we should be looking at when he says this?

    Seeking clarification =/= mocking. Maybe I should have thrown some “haha’s” in there?

    Someone pointed out that Johansen put up good numbers and he did. But there’s a 100 point difference between Hall and Johansen which apparently doesn’t matter because Johansen is a center. Then it was suggested that Hall would never fetch Seth Jones which is an odd statement to make. If Nashville had a center and instead they needed a winger, I find it incredibly unlikely they would not be willing to give up Jones for Hall.

    I’m apparently mocking people by asking questions so yeah, feel my wrath, or something.

  176. Timeisnow says:

    Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson is nothing but a huge win, and will continue to be a huge win for the Oilers till Larsson in retired

  177. Chachi says:

    Side: Ok so blainer said this

    “IMO one should look at the last two years to properly rate these two players.”

    That is kind of a vague statement made by blainer. Do you know what blainer is looking at or suggesting we should be looking at when he says this?

    Seeking clarification =/= mocking. Maybe I should have thrown some “haha’s” in there?

    Someone pointed out that Johansen put up good numbers and he did. But there’s a 100 point difference between Hall and Johansen which apparently doesn’t matter because Johansen is a center. Then it was suggested that Hall would never fetch Seth Jones which is an odd statement to make. If Nashville had a center and instead they needed a winger, I find it incredibly unlikely they would not be willing to give up Jones for Hall.

    I’m apparently mocking people by asking questions so yeah, feel my wrath, or something.

    Or something.

  178. Side says:

    Chachi: Or something.

    Excellent rebuttal.

    Sorry if you take that mockingly.

  179. Chachi says:

    Side: Excellent rebuttal.

    Sorry if you take that mockingly.

    Thanks!

  180. Jaxon says:

    Bank Shot: Osterle is an an undrafted 25 year old RFA tweener going into next season. If the Oilers offer him a contract he’d be insane not to sign it.

    He’s waiver eligible so if the Oilers send him down in the fall, 30 other teams will have a chance to get him. I personally think he’ll clear waivers.

    Speaking of waivers. I’d say most Oilers fans think that Vegas will take Reinhart in the expansion draft. The problem for Vegas here is that they will probably also be picking 7 defensemen that are better than Reinhart.

    Does it make sense to pick Reinhart only to have to put him on waivers or deal him away immediately after? What’s his value at now? 3rd or a 4th?

    Perhaps he won’t be leaving Edmonton after all.

    Oesterle is not a RFA, he is a UFA this summer, so he is free to sign with anyone who offers him a contract. That is why I’m not sure he’ll be back. At the very least, he may want to wait it out this summer to see what kind of offers he gets right before training camps and to see what kind of left-D depth those teams have before accepting an offer from the Oilers. Or maybe he waits a few days in July and then takes his best or only offer at that time. But I don’t see it as a guarantee he’ll be back as a UFA. I could see him approaching Detroit as a Michigan born kid who played with Danny DeKeyser at Western Michigan in college.

    Great analysis on Reinhart. A player that will be exposed to waivers if he doesn’t make your opening night roster would not be a very attractive option.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca