LAZY, CRAZY HAZY DAYS OF SUMMER?

Lots of talk about small moves by Peter Chiarelli this summer, likely due to his media avail on Tuesday. PC talked a lot about seeing this group grow and about progress made together. It sounds great, but new talent is the lifeblood of an organization and change is inevitable. Add legit cap issues on the horizon? We’re going to see action.

WHO IS LEAVING?

Matt Hendricks won’t be back, David Desharnais and Andrew Ference too. There will also be new players, or fringe players from last year playing major roles. Expect more Jujhar Khaira and there’s a chance Tyler Pitlick finally plays a full season in 2017-18.

The big item is cap restructuring. With two massive contracts on the way (Leon this year, McDavid next), we’re going to see something resembling Billy Guerin for Anson Carter and it very well could happen this summer. Change? Get used to it.

CURRENT 50-MAN (RFA’S INCLUDED)

  • The current estimate (my estimate) is 38, with all of the strikethroughs gone baby gone. I’m not certain about guys like Iiro Pakarinen, who has expansion uses but is probably at the every end of the “NHL winger” depth chart on this team.
  • The NHL blue and goaltending look set, but with the Sekera injury (and Todd McLellan’s preference for Kris Russell over Mark Fayne) we’re likely to see changes. Reinhart out (expansion draft) and Russell plus a RHD (Pysyk, Petrovic) seems likely.
  • Lots of things in play up front, including Benoit Pouliot out and Zack Kassian signing a two or three-year deal.
  • As much as Chiarelli’s avail suggested he wanted to see this group for a longer period, the cap and roster pressures won’t allow it. Adding Russell and a RHD mean change somewhere, probably on the wing.

CHIARELLI’S SUMMER LIST

  1. Get Connor McDavid signed to a long-term contract. I look every day to see if anyone with a louder voice than this blog is talking about the outer marker ($15 million per season). The Oilers negotiation with 97’s side is going to be limited, because anything below that number represents real value. I keep reading these “he’ll take $9.7 million for the good of the team” tweets and that strikes me as unreasonable. If he signs for eight years and $97 million ($12.125 million per season) that will represent a bargain contract.
  2. Get Leon Draisaitl signed to a long-term contract. I keep hoping $7 million because that’s manageable this year, but the young man kept filling the damned net! It might be $7.5 million (Bob mentioned that number yesterday) and PC will need to move some deck chairs but the team can manage it. More inexpensive wingers required!
  3. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future. Everyone is thinking Griffin Reinhart and that makes a lot of sense. LV must be interested in young players who can grow with the group, meaning GR and Laurent Brossoit plus Jujhar Khaira could all be on the Golden Knights list. None of these names would be terminal for the Oilers.
  4. Find a way to trade Benoit Pouliot off the roster. There is no easy road here, and I remain hopeful the organization decides to hold off on buying him out if a trade can’t be made. It is in the realm of possibility that BP recovers his offense, and remember he was very effective with McDavid (and McDavid with he) not so long ago. The reality is Edmonton has to offload some of their expensive wingmen and Pouliot is the obvious choice.
  5. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen. This has now morphed into getting an entire second pairing for much of the season since the Sekera news. If the club could grab Pysyk after the expansion draft, that would be a very strong addition. Russell on a one-year deal is probably good business (Brian Campbell is out there, but would he be interested in Edmonton?) but the contract may require more seasons and you should be prepared for it.
  6. Find a bottom 6F who can help the offense. Martin Hanzal would be ideal and it does look as though a center who can win faceoffs may be the target. I will explore the forwards available (free agency and trade) tomorrow morning, seems as though we’re going to see that kind of addition in the next three months. Brian Boyle?
  7. Find a way to cover off buried contracts. Reading the tea leaves, seems Fayne is likely to play again in Bakersfield and give the team  defensive cover. Pouliot’s situation is different and the club could buy him out, but that takes on some challenges of its own.
  8. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline. If the Oilers add Mark Pysyk and Brian Boyle as the major moves of summer, there will be some exits. I think we will see a more substantial move than those acquisitions and suspect an expensive contract from the forward group is heading out of town. Never trust the general manager to tell you exactly what he is thinking. I know that may be your mindset, as the Oilers have employed men who did it in the past. PC didn’t tell us his plans this week. Pretty sure.

DYLAN WELLS SIGNS!

The look of Edmonton’s goalie depth chart has changed completely since the day Peter Chiarelli took over. Back in May 2015, the signed men were Ben Scrivens, Laurent Brossoit, Tyler Bunz, Frans Tuohimaa.

Wells has had one strong OHL season (.916SP this season) and a mammoth playoff (.930SP, again this spring). He posted save percentages of .893 and .871 in his two other junior seasons, so we’ll look for him to post impressive totals in Peterborough this year before turning pro fall 2018.

I think the Oilers are close now to filling out the roster of goalies for next year. Talbot and Brossoit in the NHL, Ellis and Starrett in the AHL and perhaps a veteran Bakersfield signing to offer cover at the minor league level (Starrett could play in the ECHL for much of the season).

HAPPY BIRTHDAY JARI KURRI!

I loved watching him play. A 200-foot winger with eyes in the back of his head and supreme chem with Wayne Gretzky, I met him a few times back in the day and he was a very nice fellow. Verbal from the mean streets of Finland suggest he remains a good guy, always makes me feel good to know there are at least a few left on the planet. He was a sublime hockey player, it was a privilege to watch him play.

JESSE PLAYING AT WHC’S TODAY!

Word is he is on a feature line against the USA (with Sebastian Aho & Mika Pyörälä). Fill the net young man, prove that coach wrong and then do it again and again. No mercy. JP has been the subject of several posts on this blog over the spring, but the baffling handling by team Finland really surprises. The game is underway, updates available here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning with lots of news to discuss. 10 this morning, TSN1260 and scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult  of Hockey. Jesse Puljujarvi, Leon Draisaitl and the summer ahead for the Oilers.
  • Don Landry, CFL.ca. The CFL is gearing up, we’ll look at some of the big stories entering camp.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Will the Ottawa Senators beat Pittsburgh? Will Nashville get past Anaheim? Who wins Stanley? Plus some Oilers rumors.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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104 Responses to "LAZY, CRAZY HAZY DAYS OF SUMMER?"

  1. Woogie63 says:

    We all LOVE Connor, but +$12M x 8 for his second contract is crazy talk. Kane and Toews had two win two Stanley’s and Sid never got this type of money …. now the third contract…..

    He is going to get a big contract, but dial it back a bit.

  2. PunjabiOil says:

    Would aim 8 X 7M for Drai. He has 5 RFA years. He has significant room to grow, but this was only 1 year (playing with 97 didn’t hurt). You have to use your leverage despite how in love you are with the player.

    McDavid will get what he wants. There is no leverage there. Hopefully he takes a haircut (11M) in the process.

  3. Southern Oil says:

    Woogie63:
    We all LOVE Connor, but+$12M x 8 for his second contract is crazy talk.Kane and Toews had two win two Stanley’s and Sid never got this type of money …. now the third contract…..

    He is going to get a big contract, but dial it back a bit.

    Did either of these guys win the Hart in their first full season – 2nd in the league? He’s going to get paid.

    See Jesse is on line 2 today at the WHC. Go Finland! Don’t let my American wife and friends see this post please.

  4. JohnnyOilfan says:

    LT, how are you on Dougie Hamilton these days? What are the chances of the Flames and Oilers making a trade, Hamilton for Eberle. Flames will get a Top 4 RW to play with Gaudreau and Monahan. They free up a spot to sign Russell. The Oilers get a young RW dman and can try to sign versteeg to play the RW.

  5. Ducey says:

    I don’t want to sound like Bettman, but wasn’t the idea that guys would be under team control for their RFA years and therefore get less money?

    If this is the case, then wouldn’t McDavid get something like $6, $8, $10, $12, $15, $15, $15 on a 7 year deal? The first 4 years would be RFA years. That works out to $96 million. So the $97 million number would seem to be right on, no? 97/7= $13.7 million a year for a cap hit.

    If I am right, this would seem be about the most McDavid could get on a long term deal.

  6. who says:

    Everyone keeps talking about trading for a Dman from Vegas after expansion but wouldn’t the Oilers have more trade leverage by making a deal with one of the teams likely to lose a Dman before the expansion draft.
    I realize the Oilers would then have to protect 4D and 4F but if our top 4 is Drai, Nuge, Lucic and Eberle I don’t see another irreplaceable piece. And if you trade Eberle you can then protect Kassian for example.
    What about Maroon you ask. Well what about Maroon. He is a value contract but for only 1 more year and in my eyes Caggiula is already a better fit on McDavids left wing.

  7. Thinker says:

    I think you are way off base on CMD salary. If they use crosby’s percentages as comparable, that works out to 11million or 9.7 million (Crosby’s first and second contract respectively). Also keep in mind the cap was rising much faster at that time (minimum 5% a year).

    The highest Cap hit in the league is 10.5 million. Some players are making up to like 13.5, but they are front end loaded, which Connor won’t be. I would be shocked if the price is as high as you say. They could move the year prices around, but that doesn’t really matter unless you are going to be trading the player, or are anticipating retirement.

  8. jtblack says:

    I think the Oilers will move on from Ebs even if the trade is a “Loss” … Cap $$ has to be factored into trades now, so even though the player trade may be a Loss, if it saves $2 or more Million, that has tremendous value (that can be 2 bottom 6 Forwards) ..

    How about these guys.

    3C if the Oilers need one; Fisher, Bonino or Boyle ..

    I think Ebs is gone for sure and the Oilers should look for a cost effective replacement; Vrbata, Williams, Eaves …

    As for McDavid and Drai … I think the highest Cap Hits right now are $10.5 Million … Connor will definitely be the highest paid player .. I think he comes in around $12 Mil per and will have a lockout proof contract (all bonus money that year, which has to be paid regardless of Lockout). I hope Drai comes in at $7 or under …

    Even if you say $12.5 and $7.5; total of $20 Million to them …that’s just the Reality of what PC will have to navigate … I would much rather have to pay 1st rounders who have succeeded, than contemplate giving them away for 3rd round picks .. This is the price of success !!!!!!!!!!

  9. Kevin Lowe says:

    Woogie63:
    We all LOVE Connor, but+$12M x 8 for his second contract is crazy talk.Kane and Toews had two win two Stanley’s and Sid never got this type of money …. now the third contract…..

    He is going to get a big contract, but dial it back a bit.

    Salary cap was 56.7 million in 2008 when Crosby signed his 2nd contract which was 8.7 million dollars a year times 5 years.
    If the cap is 75 million next year then the identical contract as a percentage of the cap is 11.3 million time 5 years.

  10. JustWatt says:

    Kurri was always my favorite player as a kid growing up. I was searching for a non-Gretzky player to be my favorite and when I was 8 or 9 I would read the Journal Sports section for game updates and such. It was there that I discovered that Kurri and I shared a birthday and from then I never had another favorite player and could never have chosen better! Broke my heart to watch Kurri leave as much as Gretzky.

  11. anonymous says:

    Is there a reason Sekeras can’t waive and be left unprotected? Would seem like an no brainer to bring in a defenceman prior to the draft and ask him to waive.

  12. jtblack says:

    I hope PC keeps RNH for this year as he can afford to … With McD, Leon and RNH I think this team truly can compete for a Cup …

    The trick will to NOT be Dallas. Dallas was high power Offense and then Nill let 3 NHL D men walk away (Russell, Demers, Gologoski) … That crushed them and they missed the playoffs ..

    So IF Russell signs elsewhere and we count Sekera as gone; We need to replace those 2 bodies ..

    I also think if Oilers are in playoffs by Trade Deadline that PC is a buyer next year …

  13. Ribs says:

    I’ll never forget watching this highlight of McDavid’s first shift in the OHL against Dougie Hamilton….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTO2ylBzE0o#t=01m08s

    I wonder what Connor thinks of this guy?

  14. jtblack says:

    Ribs,

    Dougie steps into a 15 yr old an acts all tough .. that about sums up his character .. 🙂

  15. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT!

    -OK all you armchair GM’s: Last year I “ripped off” Hunters poll. So I will do it again: here’s my questions that we can “Prognosticate for 2017 game 1”. Picks have to be in before the Vegas draft:

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
    9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
    10) Biggest off-season F acquired?:
    11) Is Jessie playing game 1?
    12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

    – Last year Leadfarmer was the winner (and LT got a paypal contribution! Same this year. I think the questions are easier this year: as there is less left to do!)

    – Please send me in the following format:
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12

  16. dustrock says:

    Didn’t get a chance to comment in last night’s Klefbom thread, but had to mention: though I love Radiohead and “True Love Waits” is genius, so many of these songs are sad, they’re hard to reconcile with the players.

    “Don’t leave” – was thinking about Petry or Yakupov. Or Hall. 😉

  17. stush18 says:

    anonymous:
    Is there a reason Sekeras can’t waive and be left unprotected? Would seem like an no brainer to bring in a defenceman prior to the draft and ask him to waive.

    Looks bad. Pisses him and teammates off.

    Also, why would you? We want more for him, not less.

  18. dustrock says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!

    – Please send me in the following format:
    1 – Reinhart
    2 – Robert Thomas (London Knights)
    3 – Eberle stays
    4 – RNH for Tyson Barrie
    5 – Brossoit is backup
    6 – not signing Russell
    7 – McDavid – $10,97 million for 8 years
    8 – Draisaitl – $7.5m for 8 years
    9 – not sure I understand this question – pairings? Klef-Lars, X-Benning, Nurse-X (x being new)
    10 – new F- Drew Stafford – Matty will be happy
    11 – Puljujarvi will play Game 1 for sure, barring injury.
    12 – roster trades – 3 (this is offseason and no draft picks)

  19. russ99 says:

    anonymous: Why would he consider waiving his NMC? He’s a key player on the roster, it’s not like the writing is on the wall that we need to get rid of him.
    We’re required to protect players with NMCs, so I don’t think that kind of jigging the expansion process would be allowed at this point anyway.

    Why would he consider waiving his NMC? He’s a key player on the roster, it’s not like the writing is on the wall that we need to get rid of him.

    We’re required to protect players with NMCs, so I don’t think that kind of jigging the expansion process would be allowed at this point anyway.

  20. Ducey says:

    anonymous:
    Is there a reason Sekeras can’t waive and be left unprotected? Would seem like an no brainer to bring in a defenceman prior to the draft and ask him to waive.

    If you are Vegas, are you going to pick Sekera or Reinhart?

    Vegas will pick him, as he could be playing for them by December.

  21. russ99 says:

    1) Reinhart
    2) Nicholas Henry, RW, Regina (WHL)
    3) Yes, for picks, prospects/cap dump
    4) Yes with 1st round pick acquired for Ebs and Jones for Faulk.
    5) Chad Johnson
    6) $3.25M/1
    7) $9.75M/3
    8) $6.5M/2
    9) Russell and Faulk (Klef- Larsson, Russell – Faulk, Nurse – Benning, Oesterle)
    10) Hanzal
    11) In the AHL
    12) 4

  22. Ribs says:

    Happy Birthday, Jari!

    I remember getting his autograph as a kid. I’m not sure if we knew he’d be there or not, but he was sitting at the back end of a grocery store at a little table by himself (a store manager guy hovered around intermittently). Jari looked like he was set up to hand out sample food. There was no lineup, he could barely speak english, and everyone involved looked very confused, haha. Good guys, those old Oilers.

  23. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    dustrock:

    – yes – for #9: the names of the two D who will fill out our top-6. (I figure barring injury/trade all of Klef/Larsson/Nurse/Benning are locks)

  24. Ducey says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Oh, this is hard.

    1. Pouliot (the Oilers will throw in a third)
    2. Kole Lind
    3. No
    4. No
    5. Brossoit
    6. 2 yrs, 7 million
    7. $97 million, 8 yrs
    8. $52 million, 8 yrs
    9. I assume by Sekera, you mean Larsson. I will say Russel and Tyutin.
    10. Justin Williams
    11. No (Williams takes his spot)
    12. Not sure what a roster trade is. Involving guys that played an NHL game last year? 2

  25. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Ducey,

    – yeah fixed that! I menat Larsson/Klef/Nuse/Benning!

  26. vinotintazo says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    1. Reinhart
    2. Callen Foote
    3. No.
    4. No.
    5. Brossoit
    6. 3.5M x 3
    7. 9.7M x 8
    8. 6.35M x 8
    9. Russell, Gryba
    10. Hanzal
    11. No
    12. 1

  27. McSorley33 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
    9) Which 2 D dress with Sek/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
    10) Biggest off-season F acquired?:
    11) Is Jessie playing game 1?
    12) How many roster trades does Chia make?
    – Last year Leadfarmer was the winner (and LT got a paypal contribution! Same this year. I think the questions are easier this year: as there is less left to do!)
    – Please send me in the following format:

    *********************************************************

    1 – Griff
    2 – Robert Thomas ( Right shot, Centre, July birthday – will he be around ? )
    3 – Yes – a pure dump or for Strome.
    4 – RNH stays
    5 – Nilsson
    6- Russell walks with better offer elsewhere
    7-9.7 mill x 8
    8-6.5 mill x 8
    9-?
    10-Martin Hanzal C(- owns the soul of Ryan Getzlaf)
    11-No – will start in AHL
    12-1 actual NHL roster trade

  28. jtblack says:

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
    9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
    10) Biggest off-season F acquired?:
    11) Is Jessie playing game 1?
    12) How many roster trades does Chia make?
    – Last year Leadfarmer was the winner (and LT got a paypal contribution! Same this year. I think the questions are easier this year: as there is less left to do!)
    – Please send me in the following format:
    1 – Reinhart
    2 – Kole Lind
    3 – Yes. Islanders. I think Isles need to show JT they are serious and will be making moves
    4 – No. He Hoists Cup with is Mates in Edm next year !
    5 – Nick Ellis; he outplays LB for that role
    6 – Russell gets 3 yrs @ 3.5 Mil
    7 – $97 MIl over 8 Yrs
    8 – $47 Mil over 7 yrs
    9 – Russell & an acquisition in a trade/signing (Mike Green)
    10 – Patrick Eaves
    11- No. start in AHL like Leon did in his 2nd year
    12 – 5 NHL deals. Pouliot will be moved. Ebs will be moved. Russell signed. 2 Top 9 Forwards signed (ie: Eaves / Bonino)

  29. DBO says:

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
    9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
    10) Biggest off-season F acquired?:
    11) Is Jessie playing game 1?
    12) How many roster trades does Chia make?
    – Last year Leadfarmer was the winner (and LT got a paypal contribution! Same this year. I think the questions are easier this year: as there is less left to do!)
    – Please send me in the following format:
    1. Reinhart
    2. Kole Lind
    3. No
    4. Yes for Faulk (CAR)
    5. Broissot
    6. 2 years $3.5 per
    7. 8 years $100 million ($12.5 per)
    8. 8 years $58 mill ($7.25 per)
    9. Russell and Faulk
    10. Hanzal
    11. No
    12. 4 (Nuge for Faulk, Pouliot for peanuts, Russell and Hanzal signed)

  30. who says:

    russ99:
    1) Reinhart
    2) Nicholas Henry, RW, Regina (WHL)
    3) Yes, for picks, prospects/cap dump
    4) Yes with 1st round pick acquired for Ebs and Jones for Faulk.
    5) Chad Johnson
    6) $3.25M/1
    7) $9.75M/3
    8) $6.5M/2
    9) Russell and Faulk (Klef- Larsson, Russell – Faulk, Nurse – Benning, Oesterle)
    10) Hanzal
    11) In the AHL
    12) 4

    Wow! You really don’t like Nuge do you?
    So your saying Nuge, 1st round pick AND Caleb Jones for Faulk. And you don’t see that as a wee bit of an overpay?

  31. anonymous says:

    stush18: Looks bad. Pisses him and teammates off.

    Also, why would you? We want more for him, not less.

    He’s out most of the year. I’d think they’d pass or be easily convinced to. Why would he be pissed if they intend on keeping him?

  32. anonymous says:

    Ducey: If you are Vegas, are you going to pick Sekera or Reinhart?

    Vegas will pick him, as he could be playing for them by December.

    Not sure Vegas would take a 30 year old seriously injured defence man. Throw them a low round pick not to.

  33. DBO says:

    Maroon-McDavid-Eberle
    Lucic-Draisatl-Foo/Jesse
    Caggiula-Hanzal-Slepeshev
    Khaira-Letestu-Kassian

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Russell-Faulk
    Nurse-Benning
    Bear (to start. down when Sekera returns. Very Oilers thing to do)

    Balance? Size? Gritensity? RH/LH balance until Sekera returns. Cap wise works this year. Next year Russell or Sekera or Eberle gots to go. But you also have Khaira cheap replacement for Letestu. Puljujarvi almost $3 mill less then Eberle. So that’s almost $4 million right there.

  34. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    I’ll rip off Hunters poll too…

    All you armchair hubris humorists…

    Pick the date our “beloved” Last Word Guy will return to us?

    Tiebreaker: will it be v1.0 or v2.0? v3.0? beta?

    Miss you WG!

    🙂

  35. jtblack says:

    Maroon-McDavid-Eaves
    Lucic-Draisatl-/Jesse
    Caggiula-RNH-Slepeshev
    Khaira-Letestu-Kassian

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Russell-Faulk
    Nurse-Benning
    Sekera

    This lineup gives TMac the most flexibility. Plus 1 or 2 ads at the Trade Deadline and we go on the Cup Pursuit …

    I know it might be dreaming, but I would love Faulk ..he’s exactly what we need on the back end ..

  36. Ducey says:

    anonymous: Not sure Vegas would take a 30 year old seriously injured defence man.Throw them a low round pick not to.

    People are over estimating the amount of good players that will available to Vegas. There will be a ton of trades so teams don’t lose good players for nothing.

    When the dust settles, Sekera will be one of the top 4 D available in your scenario. And Vegas is not exactly going for the Cup next year, so taking an injured guy won’t phase them. Sekera still has lots of tread left.

    And if I am McPhee and you want to give me a 5th to lay off Sekera, I tell you to F off. The reason is that that leaves one less good Dman (whoever the Oilers would protect instead of Sekera) available to me.

  37. Durag says:

    Ribs:
    Happy Birthday, Jari!

    I remember getting his autograph as a kid. I’m not sure if we knew he’d be there or not, but he was sitting at the back end of a grocery store at a little table by himself (a store manager guy hovered around intermittently). Jari looked like he was set up to hand out sample food. There was no lineup, he could barely speak english, and everyone involved looked very confused, haha. Good guys, those old Oilers.

    Was this at a south side Food for Less?? I swear I remember this too but I would have been like 4 years old.

  38. Derek says:

    Kaptain Vikarious:
    I’ll rip off Hunters poll too…

    All you armchair hubris humorists…

    Pick the date our “beloved” Last Word Guy (WG) will return to us?

    Tiebreaker:will it be v1.9 or v2.0?v3.0?beta?

    I don’t think he will, he seems like a busy guy and he can communicate to most of the people who’s company he valued here (in my estimation) through other channels far easier and with less bullshit.

    This particular community of the interweb is worse off for it. It seems that the success of the team has an inverse relationship with the quality of the comments section.

    That’s not true perhaps, and it’s probably not a fair statement to make, but its hard to watch members of a community you’ve been a part of for a decade of torment bleed off.

    I’m getting sentimental over a blog, sounds like I need to go take a teaspoon of cement and harden the fuck up.

    COME BACK WG AND BRING G MONEY WITH YOU!

  39. Nuclear leak says:

    regardless of the views on various topics surrounded the beloved Oilers, 98% of the community here are the Hardcore of the core for fanatical fan ship.

    You should be able to brush off comments, topics, and the views you don’t agree with, it’s all discussion based, no one is murdeing anyone or kicking puppies, just presenting their take on it.

    Takes don’t always have to include a strong dose of stat base, and for those that do pound the stats into their comments, everyone does appreciate it.

    It creates the dialogue for discussion, everyone has a role to play and everyone’s voice should be heard, it is sport and it’s meant to be fun and make your blood pump.

    People should come back

  40. bendelson says:

    Well… shit. A little late to the party perhaps, but I just found out about WG leaving the site.

    Let me first say, that I fully understand and respect Darcy’s decision…

    Secondly, let me state that I find it more than a little sad/ironic that by the time Woodmoney is released, the two ‘drivers’ behind it (both, historically iconic Loweticians) have left the site in absolute frustration. Yes, the very site where so many of the ideas behind it were first identified, challenged, then massaged here in the comments section…

    I understand it, but I don’t like it. No sir…

  41. New Improved Darkness says:

    Connor will have trouble exceeding Nikita Nikitin’s $13.9 million per ($9 million total for 53 games played at the NHL level).

    On the other hand, Drai could possibly exceed Mark Fayne’s $7.8 million per ($14 million total for 147 games played at the NHL level—lampreys to liver spots, we’re done adding under the GP column).

    Of course, if I we’re feeling generous (I’m not), some allowance could be made for both players standing by with the meter running pending immediate call-up.

    ———

    20 June 2014
    1 July 2014

    If we had been purchased by Cuban instead of Katz—he did once sniff as far northsouth as the Penguins—this two week period would now be remembered—a fortnight which shall live in infamy—as the Cuban fizzle crisis (only with a worse outcome than the historic event achieved by a cat’s whisker).

    Hardcore History has a recent episode on the CMC titled “Destroy of Worlds”. It’s a six-hour long “blitz” episode. (Make no mistake, there’s a ten minute introduction with a tongue-almost-in-cheek “our blitz is longer than your blitz” razzing of the out-group with those pathetic short-little-spans of attention.)

    I’ve posted this before. It’s my favourite (black) doodle of all time:

    JFK’s Decisions Doodle

    For some half-hour during his Fortnight of Damocles, JFK sat there alone at his desk in an out-of-body trance drawing square boxes around the fatal word “decisions”.

    Bad day at the office, all-time edition.

    ———

    And then a miracle happened.

    ———

    This was not actually the outcome I had come to witness. I was hoping for a straighter line between cause and effect by the time the dust settled.

    But what we ended up with instead was a Tale of Two Eras. The Decade of Debacle vs. the Cap Management of Connor.

    An object lesson in how history is so often written, for sure.

    Even the stark arithmetic on Nikitin and Fayne owes a fair amount to straddling the golden ball (Fayne, at least, would have been played more if the Decade of Debacle had dwindled into a whimper instead of going out with a bang).

    ———

    What a bang.

    Bullet-train delivered to the back of the head for any other explanatory context, with precision-linkage precisely drawn.

    Excepting June, 2014.

    Still bleeding.

    Possible gangrene.

    Medic!

    Somebody fetch a saw.

    Also, somebody fetch Lucic to secure the flailing limb.

    ———

    Lucic: Hey, why me?

    Management: No movement claws.

    Lucic: What?

    Management: A common misunderstanding. Read your contract again, this time with your eyes open.

  42. Jethro Tull says:

    Derek,

    bendelson,

    Totally agree – we are poorer for having lost them.

    Nuclear leak,

    I don’t know if you were here during the….unpleasantness. There were ad hominem attacks made. I agree, one should always think twice before making grand gestures, but it is very understandable in the case of WG and GMoney.

  43. Pink Socks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
    9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
    10) Biggest off-season F acquired?:
    11) Is Jessie playing game 1?
    12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

    ——————————-

    1) Jujhar Khaira
    2) Timothy Liljegren falls ala Cam Fowler and Oil get a gift
    3) Yes, along with a next year’s 1st or a high D prospect for Hamonic & Strome
    4) No, he stays
    5) Laurent Brossoit
    6) 0, sorry no way to fit him in
    7) $97 milion/8 years
    8) $42 million/6 years
    9) New acquisition (Hamonic) and Reinhart
    10) Ryan Strome
    11) Yes, 3RW
    12) 2 Eberle traded, Pouliot traded, the rest is done through FA and pick/prospect trading

  44. frjohnk says:

    Jethro Tull: I don’t know if you were here during the….unpleasantness. There were ad hominem attacks made. I agree, one should always think twice before making grand gestures, but it is very understandable in the case of WG and GMoney.

    We have lost other good posters as they were attacked as well. They can all be found on twitter.

    This is still a great place to visit, but there are guys who come out of nowhere and start slinging insults on other posters and add nothing to the conversation at all.

    There is no need for that.

    And the thing is, while some of these posters dont bring much to the table, there are some who can bring much to the table but feel the need to sling the insults. Shame on them for that as they are better than that.

    When I first joined this blog, I remember not agreeing with WG on quite a few things. Both us stubborn, there were many chances of our disagreements going off the rails but that didnt happen. Why? Because we didnt go and look to attack the other guy if the other guy didnt agree.

    A healthy debate. ( for the most part) what a concept!!!

    Now I have had other run ins with other posters and probably could have handled those run ins better. Im sure G and WG would say the same thing.

    This is a stats heavy blog, and not having G and WG here is like not having Klefbom and McDavid on the team. The drivers of the stats are gone and while comment section is still good, its not elite.

    Oh for those wondering, Im Laura Korpikoski in the stats realm. Just waiting for Chi…I mean LT to buy me out. 🙂

    While we may not get some of the elite posters back, I do think we could all be a bit more respectful to one another, cause one day it could be too much for our host and then we will get the lights turned off here.

  45. Jethro Tull says:

    frjohnk: We have lost other good posters as they were attacked as well.They can all be found on twitter.

    This is still a great place to visit, but there are guys who come out of nowhere and start slinging insults on other posters and add nothing to the conversation at all.

    There is no need for that.

    And the thing is, while some of these posters dont bring much to the table, there are some who can bring much to the table but feel the need to sling the insults.Shame on them for that as they are better than that.

    When I first joined this blog, I remember not agreeing with WG on quite a few things. Both us stubborn, there were many chances of our disagreements going off the rails but that didnt happen.Why?Because we didnt go and look to attack the other guy if the other guy didnt agree.

    A healthy debate. ( for the most part) what a concept!!!

    Now I have had other run ins with other posters and probably could have handled those run ins better.Im sure G and WG would say the same thing.

    This is a stats heavy blog, and not having G and WG here is like not having Klefbom and McDavid on the team.The drivers of the stats are gone and while comment section is still good, its not elite.

    Oh for those wondering, Im Laura Korpikoski in the stats realm.Just waiting for Chi…I mean LT to buy me out.

    While we may not get some of the elite posters back, I do think we could all be a bit more respectful to one another, cause one day it could be too much for our host and then we will get thelights turned off here.

    Agreed. WG only got snippy with me if i brought a knife to a gun fight during a debate. Other than that, top poster.

    And for the record, I am the ghost of Lennart Petrell of the stats world.

  46. Ducey says:

    Pink Socks,

    You have Ebs and a high 1st rounder/ high D prospect going for Hamonic and Strome.

    So the Oilers give up a 51 pt player and say Ethan Bear for a 30 pt player and a Dman that was dead last in CF% on his entire team?

    No offense, but I sure hope you are wrong.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Just to put the record clear: I asked GMoney to leave, and he did so with class. WG left (as I understand it) because he was no longer enjoying the experience. There are bad guys in this story, WG and G are not on that list.

  48. Cassandra says:

    bendelson:
    Well… shit.A little late to the party perhaps, but I just found out about WG leaving the site.

    Let me first say, that I fully understand and respect Darcy’s decision…

    Secondly, let me state that I find it more than a little sad/ironic that by the time Woodmoney is released, the two ‘drivers’ behind it (both, historically iconic Loweticians) have left the site in absolute frustration.Yes, the very site where so many of the ideas behind it were first identified, challenged, then massaged here in the comments section…

    I understand it, but I don’t like it.No sir…

    Why would Woodguy come back? Look at the threads the past few days. He has nothing in common with the people who dominate the posts They aren’t interested in discussion, they think events have proven them right and they tolerate no dissent. In recent days, longtime posters like Knightown and VOR, and a poster I didn’t recognized, have each been attacked, and not on substance, for departing from orthodoxy. The only reason for someone like Woodguy to post here is to fight. I think he decided he wasn’t interested in fighting anymore. The culture war within this community is over, and Woodguy’s side lost.

    The better question is how long lowetide will be able to keep it going? Will he drift toward the interests and ideas of his new readers co-opted by the emerging Edmonton consensus, or will he be able to maintain his independence of mind and persist despite the resulting alienation from his audience?

  49. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jethro Tull: Agreed. WG only got snippy with me if i brought a knife to a gun fight during a debate.Other than that, top poster.

    And for the record, I am the ghost of Lennart Petrell of the stats world.

    – For what it’s worth: I think part of the problem is that everyone is able to post, and everyone is entitled to an opinion on a blog.

    – A blog where one can post isn’t a “campaign debate”, where only those who qualify get invited

    – So it’s clearly difficult for some posters to filter out the noise from other posters that they deem jerks, or trollers, or not listening, or just plain rude.

    – That’s both the limitation and the attraction of a blog with disparate opinions.

    – I haven’t liked some of the things some have said for me, I’ve huffed off in a puff sometimes, and said stupid things: I’m not an elite poster. I love this hobby of mine which I call “Lowetiding”

    – I hope they all come back as well. This is a great forum: Thanks LT!

  50. anonymous says:

    Ducey: People are over estimating the amount of good players that will available to Vegas. There will be a ton of trades so teams don’t lose good players for nothing.

    When the dust settles, Sekera will be one of the top 4 D available in your scenario. And Vegas is not exactly going for the Cup next year, so taking an injured guy won’t phase them. Sekera still has lots of tread left.

    And if I am McPhee and you want to give me a 5th to lay off Sekera, I tell you to F off. The reason is that that leaves one less good Dman (whoever the Oilers would protect instead of Sekera) available to me.

    Maybe, I was thinking they’d be happy to gamble on Reinhardt.

  51. Pink Socks says:

    Ducey:
    Pink Socks,

    You have Ebs and a high 1st rounder/ high D prospect going for Hamonic and Strome.

    So the Oilers give up a 51 pt player and say Ethan Bear for a 30 pt player and a Dman that was dead last in CF% on his entire team?

    No offense, but I sure hope you are wrong.

    No offense taken.

    Oilers give up a 1st round plus a 51 pt player who had a bad season and even worse playoffs and who doesn’t perform well against heavy teams with a $6m price tag in exchange for a 40 point RW, younger, at $2.5m, and a cost controlled sub-$4m RH defender who, while having a tough season, also had an injury, but is certainly more than capable of filling a second pairing slot. The cap is a wash, the RH defender issue is filled, and the RW/C issue is filled. I’m more than okay with a move of this nature.

  52. Ray says:

    Lowetide:
    Just to put the record clear: I asked GMoney to leave, and he did so with class. WG left (as I understand it) because he was no longer enjoying the experience. There are bad guys in this story, WG and G are not on that list.

    And this site is lessor without them here.

  53. pocession charge says:

    Summer nights and long warm days
    Are stolen as the old moon falls
    My mirror shows another face
    Another place to hide it all
    Another place to hide it all

    And I’m lost behind
    The words I’ll never find
    And I’m left behind
    As seasons roll on by

    Sleeping with a full moon blanket
    Sand and feathers for my head
    Dreams have never been the answer
    And dreams have never made my bed
    Dreams have never made my bed

    And I’m lost behind
    The words I’ll never find
    And I’m left behind
    As seasons roll on by

    Now I wanna fly above the storm
    But you can’t grow feathers in the rain
    And the naked floor is cold as hell
    This naked floor reminds me
    Oh the naked floor reminds me

    And I’m lost behind
    Words I’ll never find
    And I’m left behind
    As seasons roll on by

    If I should be short on words
    And long on things to say
    Could you crawl into my world
    And take me worlds away?
    Should I be beside myself
    And not even stay

    And I’m lost behind
    Words I’ll never find
    And I’m left behind
    As seasons roll on by

  54. pocession charge says:

    Cassandra: Why would Woodguy come back?Look at the threads the past few days.He has nothing in common with the people who dominate the postsThey aren’t interested in discussion, they think events have proven them right and they tolerate no dissent.In recent days, longtime posters like Knightown and VOR, and a poster I didn’t recognized, have each been attacked, and not on substance, for departing from orthodoxy.The only reason for someone like Woodguy to post here is to fight.I think he decided he wasn’t interested in fighting anymore.The culture war within this community is over, and Woodguy’s side lost.

    The better question is how long lowetide will be able to keep it going?Will he drift toward the interests and ideas of his new readers co-opted by the emerging Edmonton consensus, or will he be able to maintain his independence of mind and persist despite the resulting alienation from his audience?

    This doesn’t really frame the issue accurately. If people disagree with your opinion, then you are allowed to counter argue. Woodguy cannot seem to do this without getting defensive and being a jerk sometimes. What you basically just said was, “If you are a long time poster that holds certain views, then you should be immune to other posters questioning those views”. Knightown and VOR were not attacked. Woodguy was not attacked — he got into an(other) argument with Season Not Played and instead of ignoring him like a mature adult would do, he decided to pack up his net and go home. Too bad because he was a good poster and I liked to read his posts.

  55. russ99 says:

    who: Wow! You really don’t like Nuge do you?
    So your saying Nuge, 1st round pick AND Caleb Jones for Faulk. And you don’t see that as a wee bit of an overpay?

    LOL.

    No, it’s just really expensive to land a quality D in a trade, as we saw last summer. Also, I’m thinking a late 1st, like from St. Louis.

    Nuge’s contract makes that value less, not Nuge himself. 4/$6M is a lot to stomach for any player taken back in a deal.

  56. pocession charge says:

    frjohnk: We have lost other good posters as they were attacked as well.They can all be found on twitter.

    They can be found on Twitter where people are so respectful towards each other………

  57. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra,

    If there can ever be a silver lining to WG’s leaving, let it be that it is forcing me to stop being so lazy and to look up the numbers that can prove or disprove a point.

    I took him for granted when he would post up the stats on a player or team. But i am learning, so while I will never be a stats wizard, at least i can understand what the conversation is.

    At least he could have let his phone keep posting.

    Damn, it’s getting smokey in here….:-(

  58. who says:

    Pink Socks: No offense taken.

    Oilers give up a 1st round plus a 51 pt player who had a bad season and even worse playoffs and who doesn’t perform well against heavy teams with a $6m price tag in exchange for a 40 point RW, younger, at $2.5m, and a cost controlled sub-$4m RH defender who, while having a tough season, also had an injury, but is certainly more than capable of filling a second pairing slot.The cap is a wash, the RH defender issue is filled, and the RW/C issue is filled. I’m more than okay with a move of this nature.

    I would love this trade from an Oiler perspective but I am not sure the Islanders would be willing to make it.

  59. --hudson-- says:

    JustWatt:
    Kurri was always my favorite player as a kid growing up. I was searching for a non-Gretzky player to be my favorite and when I was 8 or 9 I would read the Journal Sports section for game updates and such. It was there that I discovered that Kurri and I shared a birthday and from then I never had another favorite player and could never have chosen better! Broke my heart to watch Kurri leave as much as Gretzky.

    One of my favorite Kurri stories was his first game in Winnipeg. He looks up in the rafters, sees the portrait of the Queen, and asks Gretzky who the lady is. If I could remember where I saw the story, I would link it. Funny stuff.

    I really miss Woodguy’s comments, hope he comes back.

  60. who says:

    pocession charge: This doesn’t really frame the issue accurately.If people disagree with your opinion, then you are allowed to counter argue.Woodguy cannot seem to do this without getting defensive and being a jerk sometimes.What you basically just said was, “If you are a long time poster that holds certain views, then you should be immune to other posters questioning those views”.Knightown and VOR were not attacked.Woodguy was not attacked — he got into an(other) argument with Season Not Played and instead of ignoring him like a mature adult would do, he decided to pack up his net and go home.Too bad because he was a good poster and I liked to read his posts.

    This is bang on. Announcing you are no longer posting on here because someone doesn’t agree with you or is arguing with you strikes me as a bit dramatic. Also a bit arrogant. If I ever decide to quit posting I don’t think I’ll feel the need to make a formal announcement.

  61. dustrock says:

    Man, Chia signing Rutta from the Czech league would be great.

    A guy who wont’ cost roster players or draft picks, and you probably don’t have to break the bank for him.

    RHD who can maybe PP2. Maybe you still go for a better RHD 2nd pairing, but even bottom pairing, that looks pretty good.

  62. Thinker says:

    Hey guys. Been following advanced stats for years, and I’ve always wanted to do some work on it. I’m an engineer by trade. I’m not that familiar with the data scene though. I want to do a DOE. So first I want see sort of what factors are important to scoring, and from that I can create a regression using those variables. Once you have the regression, you should be able to run it over players to have a better predictor than raw corsi or fenwick.

    What I need is shot location data for individual games, preferably sorted into bins, and the score from that game. Is there anywhere I can pull that from?

    Then subsequently the shots taken from locations by player, which should be easier to find.

  63. --hudson-- says:

    The ex-Oilers reunion with the Islanders continues. Luke Richardson just hired by Doug Weight, joining Kelly Buchberger.

    Better there than here I guess.

  64. pocession charge says:

    –hudson–:
    The ex-Oilers reunion with the Islanders continues.Luke Richardson just hired by Doug Weight, joining Kelly Buchberger.

    Better there than here I guess.

    Is Buchberger still assistant coach of fake tanning?

  65. Ducey says:

    Pink Socks: No offense taken.

    Oilers give up a 1st round plus a 51 pt player who had a bad season and even worse playoffs and who doesn’t perform well against heavy teams with a $6m price tag in exchange for a 40 point RW, younger, at $2.5m, and a cost controlled sub-$4m RH defender who, while having a tough season, also had an injury, but is certainly more than capable of filling a second pairing slot.The cap is a wash, the RH defender issue is filled, and the RW/C issue is filled. I’m more than okay with a move of this nature.

    I don’t like Strome. I think he MIGHT someday be Sam Gagner. That is not a C, not a defensive player, certainly not a heavy player, and someone who could excel in gravy minutes and on the PP. Its not a compliment (although I always cheered for Samwise when he was an Oiler).

    Strome isn’t a top 6 winger.

    He was 10th in CF% on the Islanders. The river swept him away.

    Speaking of which, Hamonic showed he was not capable of swimming in the second pair this last year. There is a good chance he is Mark Fayne in a year from now. In terms of CF% he is Russell.

    To give up Eberle and a first for Gagner and Russell: not a fan.

    So I guess we will have to disagree.

  66. T0ML says:

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
    – Kharia
    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
    – Nicholas Hague
    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
    – Yes, NYI, multiple parts, RHD coming back, Vatenan or Barrie
    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
    – No
    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
    – Ellis
    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
    – 3.9/2
    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
    – 11/8
    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
    – 6.89/8
    9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
    – Russell / Vatenen
    10) Biggest off-season F acquired?:
    – Oshie
    11) Is Jessie playing game 1?
    – Yes
    12) How many roster trades does Chia make?
    – 3

  67. dustrock says:

    Ducey,

    I’m staying away from the Islanders at this point, not sure who I like on that team for the Oilers.

  68. Thinker says:

    Ducey: I don’t like Strome. I think he MIGHT someday be Sam Gagner. That is not a C, not a defensive player, certainly not a heavy player, and someone who could excel in gravy minutes and on the PP. Its not a compliment (although I always cheered for Samwise when he was an Oiler).

    Strome isn’t a top 6 winger.

    He was 10th in CF% on the Islanders. The river swept him away.

    Speaking of which, Hamonic showed he was not capable of swimming in the second pair this last year. There is a good chance he is Mark Fayne in a year from now. In terms of CF% he is Russell.

    To give up Eberle and a first for Gagner and Russell: not a fan.

    So I guess we will have to disagree.

    Are you sure? I’ve heard of Strome and Hamonic…

    IRL you are 100% right, it’s a nonsense deal. Why would you bet on Hamonic returning to previous levels, and Strome turning a corner instead of betting on Eberle rebounding. And why in gods name is a first moving the other way?

    The size perceptions drive me nuts. Sam Gagner at 5’11 205 was tiny, but Strome at 6′ 195 is a brute. Fact of the matter is both aren’t physical players.

  69. Diablo says:

    Ducey,

    Totally agree on Strome – he’s got a famous family name but he needs to be sheltered to produce. Gagner’s a good comp. Which is fine for team that has an aggressive line matching coach, but that’s not TMac philosophy (he prefers quick shifts and rolling 4 lines to push the pace).

    Correct me if I’m wrong on this, but Hamonic has been pretty good according to both eye and math up until this past year. Perhaps this last year was an aberration – could be an opportunity to get a good, cost-controlled RHD when he otherwise would not be available.

  70. Woogie63 says:

    1. Letestu
    2. Robert Thomas
    3. Demers
    4. Stays
    5. LB
    6. 2 x $3.7 M
    7. 7 x $7.5 M
    8. 7 x $6.0 M
    9. Russell and Demers
    10. Grabner
    11. No
    12. 2

  71. stevezie says:

    If you ever see someone walking the streets in a Kurri jersey, there’s a real good chance you’re looking at the opportunity to finally run me over with your car in person.

    Haven’t seen many others.

  72. B.C.B says:

    as a long time reader, and now rare commenter

    I am going to miss WG’s comments, a lot.
    I hate twitter, and really appreciated how he explained stats to me (even if I rarely asked questions) in more than 160 characters over here on lowetide’s site. I am going to likely stop reading comments most of the time

  73. VOR says:

    Given my name came up I just want to say something about my personal experience as a poster here.

    I have left this blog twice and neither time has it actually had much to do with other posters though I have been in the midst of major fire fights both times. In the first instance I realized I was becoming obsessive compulsive about arguing about stats. Which seemed a rather silly waste of time for a grown up. Better, at least marginally, to be obsessed with doing sports analytics as a hobby.

    In the second instance, as I told GMoney, there came a moment where my love of hockey, a sport I have played for four decades and watched for five, was being eroded, corroded, pick a word, by my growing knowledge of the math that underlies the sport. I preferred to save my love of hockey and for a month or so I went cold turkey off the math. But it sucked me back in. By the time I got back to posting GMoney was gone and I never got a chance to say to him that I discovered I had waited too long to give up the math.

    I am one of those fractured fans LT posted about. I will never be bonded to this team the way I was to previous iterations of the Oilers (I had season tickets for over 30 years). It is because of the Hall trade but not in the way that seems to get mentioned most often. I loved Adam Larsson and still do. I loved Taylor Hall and still do. In the cold hard light of day I set out to figure out a way of determining (and yes I do know the definition of hubris and about wax wings and the sun) the true value of each player so I could figure out for myself who won the trade, if anyone did.

    That inquiry lead me down a rabbit hole and once I was at the bottom of it there were a lot of interconnecting tunnels and holes intersecting those tunnels and so on and on. I haven’t met the Mad Hatter yet but I am sure he is down here somewhere. I realized slowly, but finally, I now love the math more than I love the hockey. The hockey just generates the data.

    With that knowledge, I miss GMoney and Woodguy with their math. Lately I realized I haven’t seen Georges in a few threads. But I don’t think it should matter who moves on or gets asked to leave. Over time a new generation of posters will spring up filled with fascinating new ideas about hockey and the math that underlies hockey. Nothing like cutting down the tall trees to encourage re-generation.

  74. pocession charge says:

    VOR:
    Given my name came up I just want to say something about my personal experience as a poster here.

    I have left this blog twice and neither time has it actually had much to do with other posters though I have been in the midst of major fire fights both times. In the first instance I realized I was becoming obsessive compulsive about arguing about stats. Which seemed a rather silly waste of time for a grown up. Better, at least marginally, to be obsessed with doing sports analytics as a hobby.

    In the second instance, as I told GMoney, there came a moment where my love of hockey, a sport I have played for four decades and watched for five, was being eroded, corroded, pick a word, by my growing knowledge of the math that underlies the sport. I preferred to save my love of hockey and for a month or so I went cold turkey off the math. But it sucked me back in. By the time I got back to posting GMoney was gone and I never got a chance to say to him that I discovered I had waited too long to give up the math.

    I am one of those fractured fans LT posted about. I will never be bonded to this team the way I was to previous iterations of the Oilers (I had season tickets for over 30 years). It is because of the Hall trade but not in the way that seems to get mentioned most often. I loved Adam Larsson and still do. I loved Taylor Hall and still do. In the cold hard light of day I set out to figure out a way of determining (and yes I do know the definition of hubris and about wax wings and the sun) the true value of each player so I could figure out for myself who won the trade, if anyone did.

    That inquiry lead me down a rabbit hole and once I was at the bottom of it there were a lot of interconnecting tunnels and holes intersecting those tunnels and so on and on. I haven’t met the Mad Hatter yet but I am sure he is down here somewhere. I realized slowly, but finally, I now love the math more than I love the hockey. The hockey just generates the data.

    With that knowledge, I miss GMoney and Woodguy with their math. Lately I realized I haven’t seen Georges in a few threads. But I don’t think it should matter who moves on or gets asked to leave. Over time a new generation of posters will spring up filled with fascinating new ideas about hockey and the math that underlies hockey. Nothing like cutting down the tall trees to encourage re-generation.

    Great post VOR!

  75. treevojo says:

    Cassandra: Why would Woodguy come back?Look at the threads the past few days.He has nothing in common with the people who dominate the postsThey aren’t interested in discussion, they think events have proven them right and they tolerate no dissent.In recent days, longtime posters like Knightown and VOR, and a poster I didn’t recognized, have each been attacked, and not on substance, for departing from orthodoxy.The only reason for someone like Woodguy to post here is to fight.I think he decided he wasn’t interested in fighting anymore.The culture war within this community is over, and Woodguy’s side lost.

    The better question is how long lowetide will be able to keep it going?Will he drift toward the interests and ideas of his new readers co-opted by the emerging Edmonton consensus, or will he be able to maintain his independence of mind and persist despite the resulting alienation from his audience?

    Now this has got to be BW.

    I like the name too.

    Very suitable.

  76. Glass says:

    VOR,

    Nice post. I have to say, I’m not sure how much the ‘who won the Hall trade’ is really relevant. We’re a better team because of it, full-stop. I think that’s what counts. It should also be noted that the culture is better off without him, honestly.

    Multiple current and ex-players have alluded to the fact that the room used to be split and ‘clique’ like.

  77. N64 says:

    VOR: That inquiry lead me down a rabbit hole and once I was at the bottom of it there were a lot of interconnecting tunnels and holes intersecting those tunnels and so on and on. I haven’t met the Mad Hatter yet but I am sure he is down here somewhere. I realized slowly, but finally, I now love the math more than I love the hockey. The hockey just generates the data.

    When you get the envelope pick up the burner.

    “I don’t know if you’re ready to see what I want to show you, but unfortunately, you and I have run out of time. They’re coming for you, Neo, and I don’t know what they’re going to do.”

    Hey long ago you probably started liking the stories as much as the hockey. Now you’ve got the numbers and the stories and the hockey.

    “I didn’t come here to tell you how this is going to end. I came here to tell you how it’s going to begin. I’m going to hang up this phone, and then I’m going to show these people what you don’t want them to see.”

  78. treevojo says:

    who: This is bang on. Announcing you are no longer posting on here because someone doesn’t agree with you or is arguing with you strikes me as a bit dramatic. Also a bit arrogant. If I ever decide to quit posting I don’t think I’ll feel the need to make a formal announcement.

    Woodguy has been a staple of this blog ever since I can remember coming here.

    With the amount of time and energy he put in to posting here over the years the words dramatic and arrogant are little over the top.

    Personally I love it when people get into disputes here. It is part of the entertainment for me.

    Reminds me of growing up in a house of four boys. As Lowetide takes the fatherly figure it obviously isn’t as fun for him.

    I hope woodguy is just taking a breather and comes back rebooted 3.0.

  79. Gollum says:

    Woodguy was the best.
    And we have people calling him arrogant because he could actually back up his arguments with logic. I can go anywhere and read “Hall is a cancer” and “Petry is soft” posts, but I come/came here to read comments that presented something beyond opinion.
    I miss Woodguy and GMoney and others like them that I could learn something from. Luckily, there are still a few left.

  80. digger50 says:

    Glass:
    VOR,

    Nice post. I have to say, I’m not sure how much the ‘who won the Hall trade’ is really relevant. We’re a better team because of it, full-stop. I think that’s what counts. It should also be noted that the culture is better off without him, honestly.

    Multiple current and ex-players have alluded to the fact that the room used to be split and ‘clique’ like.

    Well you see here we go again.

    Blanket statements of opinion presented as fact.

    And the saying “full stop” so I guess there is no counter.

  81. Centre of attention says:

    Gollum:
    Woodguy was the best.
    And we have people calling him arrogant because he could actually back up his arguments with logic. I can go anywhere and read “Hall is a cancer” and “Petry is soft” posts, but I come/came here to read comments that presented something beyond opinion.
    I miss Woodguy and GMoney and others like them that I could learn something from. Luckily, there are still a few left.

    This post is awesome.

    Its simply disappointing we seem to keep losing great insight.

    treevojo: Woodguy has been a staple of this blog ever since I can remember coming here.

    With the amount of time and energy he put in to posting here over the years the words dramatic and arrogant are little over the top.

    Personally I love it when people get into disputes here. It is part of the entertainment for me.

    Reminds me of growing up in a house of four boys.As Lowetide takes the fatherly figure it obviously isn’t as fun for him.

    I hope woodguy is just taking a breather and comes back rebooted 3.0.

    To be honest I don’t think WG is coming back. Why come back when it seems hes not wanted? Of course people like me, you, and some other more veteran posters enjoy him.

    But now there are all these new people who seem to think they have as much sway over how we discuss things as the veteran posters do. Which is true, there is no hierarchy here. But damn, it would be awesome to at least get a little bit of respect and restraint when talking with those kinds of posters.

    Instead, we belittle and ignore and now we don’t have that insight anymore.

    And before you point out “Well it was WG who started the shit” I’ll go ahead and stop you right there. The shit started way before WG’s last post. he had enough. Sure, he probably said something dumb, but he was only returning the favor. WG is not the bad guy here.

    I used to be a daily, even hourly poster here. Now I hardly post because I don’t have time to argue. And I can’t just post things without arguing my point, and WG told me in twitter DM’s he’s like this too, either you finish your point fully or not at all. You can’t half ass his kind of insight.

    That kind of commitment to quality content is what makes his posts so damn good.

    Anyways, in summary, we need to be better. This place was going pretty good during the playoffs. But the second summer hit and the talk turned to roster building, we are back at the same old shit.

    I don’t know if I want to be a part of the shit this time. I’ll take my time to see how things evolve here, but it may just be time to find a new home perhaps. Sad, really.

    -Ben

  82. rickithebear says:

    I want Dmen who
    Defend at Even HD and Shot suppression
    2. Defend the PK.
    Pk Goal dif rediction gets paid a lot less than PPGF in the cap world.
    You only need 4 min of 1 PP D.
    3. I want my D to get the forwards the puck and not Sacrifice Def of free path to net.

    Dmen top 20 EVGA60; PKGA60; EVA60
    none!

    Dmen top 40 EVGA60; PKGA60; EVA60
    Parayko (3rd comp)

    Dmen top 60 EVGA60; PKGA60; EVA60
    Larsson (1st comp)
    Niskanen(1st/2nd)
    Markov (1st/2nd)
    Suter (1st/2nd)
    Ekholm (2nd comp)
    Slavin (2nd/3rd)
    Shattenkirk (3rd) UFA

    Dmen top 90 EVGA60; PKGA60; EVA60
    Pietrangelo (1st)
    Josi (1st)
    Lindholm (1st)
    Myers (1st)
    P. Martin (1st/2nd)
    Hedman (1st/2nd)
    Matta (2nd)
    K. Miller (2nd)
    Boychuk (2nd)
    Carlson (2nd)
    Ellis (2nd/3rd)
    Demers (3rd)
    S. jones (3rd)
    Benning (3rd)
    I. Cole (3rd)
    there are 21 Dmen who can be above average in EVGA; EVA; PKGA

    Def Dmen:
    top 15 EVG60; PKGA60
    Alzner (1st comp) UFA
    top 6 in both.
    My Russell money is going here.

    top 30 EVG60; PKGA60
    Manson (1st)
    Brodin (1st/2nd)

    top 45 EVG60; PKGA60
    Lovejoy (1st)
    Marchenko (3rd)

    top 60 EVG60; PKGA60
    Stralman (2nd)
    Gunnarson (2nd)
    Pesce (2nd/3rd)
    B. Smith (3rd) UFA

    top 75 EVG60; PKGA60
    A. Greene (1st)
    Doughty (1st/2nd)
    Bouwmeester (1st/2nd)
    Mcquaid (1st-3rd)

    top 90 EVG60; PKGA60
    M. Staal (1st/2nd)
    Coburn (2nd-3rd)
    Dillon (2nd/3rd)
    Martinez (2nd/3rd)
    Seabrook (2nd/3rd)

    Take your Pick!

  83. VOR says:

    Digger 50,

    Thank you. Here is a little gift in return:

    For those of you who like such things here is a hockey riddle:

    Once upon a time (a true story none the less) three young men offered as stark a contrast as will even be seen in intangibles. According to their scouting reports.

    Player A: was all heart no hands
    Player B: was all hands no heart
    Player C: couldn’t make up his mind if he had heart, hands, neither or both.

    One would become a 50 goal scorer and an NHL Captain.
    One would put a team and a city on his back and take it on a wild Stanley Cup Ride. Well you could say that about all three of them. One more than once.
    One would become, arguably the greatest sheltering tree hockey has ever seen.
    Two of them are the only two NHL players ever to be voted by their teammates “favorite teammate” five times.
    One would get put on waivers and his teammates would hold a prayer vigil praying he wouldn’t be claimed.
    Player B taught Player A how to throw a body check.
    Player A would become the most feared hitter in hockey.
    Once upon a time they all played together, on a line.

    That last clue should be a giveaway. Name the players.

  84. N64 says:

    Centre of attention: And before you point out “Well it was WG who started the shit” I’ll go ahead and stop you right there. The shit started way before WG’s last post. he had enough. Sure, he probably said something dumb, but he was only returning the favor. WG is not the bad guy here.

    Woodguy got tired of raising his elbows when someone came charging across the ice to crosscheck him. If ya can’t ignore the high noise to signal guys best to stay away and do something more interesting than arguing at unhappy hour.

  85. pocession charge says:

    Centre of attention,

    How do you know who a new person is and who a veteran poster is? A lot of posters change their handles over time. And what is wrong with new posters and new ideas? This blog is still largely math based and most of us like stats. That said, not everything can be explained with stats so there is still room for opinion/eye test/discussion. So go find that mythical blog commentary where everyone agrees with you. Good luck!

  86. N64 says:

    pocession charge: And what is wrong with new posters and new ideas?

    Your straw dog won’t hunt 😉

  87. pocession charge says:

    Centre of attention: This post is awesome.

    Its simply disappointing we seem to keep losing great insight.

    To be honest I don’t think WG is coming back. Why come back when it seems hes not wanted? Of course people like me, you, and some other more veteran posters enjoy him.

    But now there are all these new people who seem to think they have as much sway over how we discuss things as the veteran posters do. Which is true, there is no hierarchy here. But damn, it would be awesome to at least get a little bit of respect and restraint when talking with those kinds of posters.

    Instead, we belittle and ignore and now we don’t have that insight.

    It was only one or two people who disagreed with Woodguy and he repeatedly asked that person to stop posting on this site. Please refrain from lumping the rest of us into the same category.

  88. pocession charge says:

    N64: Your straw dog won’t hunt 😉

    Lol. That is Definitely Sage advice For me.

  89. N64 says:

    pocession charge: It was only one or two people who disagreed with Woodguy and he repeatedly asked that person to stop posting on this site.Please refrain from lumping the rest of us into the same category.

    I took that as more of any chance you’re leaving me alone or just leaving. Fine. I’m done.

    We lost Hull and kept Bugsy Watson. Que sera sera.

  90. Glass says:

    digger50: Well you see here we go again.

    Blanket statements of opinion presented as fact.

    And the saying “full stop” so I guess there is no counter.

    You don’t think the team is better with Larsson and without Hall? We’ve improved by virtually every metric. Also, look at our improved record against Pacific and Central teams. As well as our improved road record.

    There were also multiple players who alluded to the fact that the room was split and was ‘cliquey’. It doesn’t appear this way anymore, I mean the team seems rather close. Check out player’s social media, how they carry themselves in interviews, how they stick up for each other during the season and playoffs, etc.

  91. rickithebear says:

    Gollum:
    Woodguy was the best.
    And we have people calling him arrogant because he could actually back up his arguments with logic. I can go anywhere and read “Hall is a cancer” and “Petry is soft” posts, but I come/came here to read comments that presented something beyond opinion.
    I miss Woodguy and GMoney and others like them that I could learn something from. Luckily, there are still a few left.

    Wood guys arguments are flawed!
    1. Corsi A has almost zero indication of Dman’s ability.
    they are dependent on the Pocession and shooting abilty of Forward while not abandoning defensive play. If forward are not involved in neutral zone trap.
    The only proper play is for Dmen to collapse to Edge of High danger area.

    Corsi x,y it is the start of 2 stastistical paths of Dman measure.
    A. Puck is released and will either hit an open are in the net
    or hit the goalie. The HD affect is resultant in this process.

    B. Shot Supression
    Dmen can block; Force misses;
    So you want elite SH/Corsi Dmen.
    This is the measure that makes Russell look Elite.

    When you go back thru the years.
    the cup core ratio teams rise to the top.

    In the 25 years.
    It is often questionable occurances that derail them.
    Buffalo vs Dallas
    EDm vs Anahiem
    1. Top 10 HD goalie
    Talbot trade was arranged trade dealine 2015.

    2. 3 + top 60 HD dmen
    Larsson (1st comp)
    1 of 6 Dmen top 60 in HDSH60; EVGA60; PKGA60; EVA60
    Benning (3rd)
    1 of 21 D top 90 EVGA60; PKGA60; EVA60
    Sekera (2nd)
    Top 20 HDSH60; EVGA60
    went down and affected Play

    3. 5+ top 125 Forwards Top 145 in G and P
    Mcdavid 30G 100P (top 2)
    Draisatl 29G 77P (top 7)
    Lucic 23G 50P (top 60) PvP
    Eberle 20G 51P (top 70) PvP
    RNH 18G 43P (top 100) PvP
    Maroon 27G 42P (top 35G) (top 133P)
    Letestu 16G 35P (top 135)

    4. +ve Goal Dif from 3rd line

    Pouliot 13gm -2
    RNH 13gm -3
    Letestu 13gm -4
    Lucic 13gm -5
    Eberle -6
    it makes zero sense to run forward who achieve greater than 1.00 PPG facing 2nd-3rd comp
    RNH, Eberle should not run PvP.

    Give me strong EVG production from 1st-3rd comp type forwards.
    D. King;
    Hanzal

  92. VOR says:

    N64,

    Yeah I do love the stories. I remember the first great hockey story I ever heard. It was at a party in 1978, drunk guy starts telling me about “the Night the Gardens ran Red”. He could really spin a yarn.

    Short version, Canadiens are in Boston. Illness and suspension mean they have no enforcers, no tough guys. This is circa like 1960 and the Bruins are the broad street bullies of the day.

    Two of the Bruins worst goons attack the Canadiens smallest player. It would eventually take multiple ambulances to cart the Bruins wounded off to the hospital. Story goes it took the entire Canadiens team and all the officials to stop little Henri Richard from killing multiple Bruins. At one point he was jumping up and down on one guy’s face with his skates while beating on another Bruin’s head with his stick.

    I assumed the story was horse bleep but ended up pulling up old Microfiche (remember microfiche) and sure enough the story was more or less accurate.

    I have wondered what on Earth possessed a drunk to back me into a corner and spend half an hour telling me a hockey story from 1960?

    My wife tells me it is simple. There was no Lowetide in 1978.

  93. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    N64,

    Yeah I do love the stories. I remember the first great hockey story I ever heard. It was at a party in 1978, drunk guy starts telling me about “the Night the Gardens ran Red”. He could really spin a yarn.

    Short version, Canadiens are in Boston. Illness and suspension mean they have no enforcers, no tough guys. This is circa like 1960 and the Bruins are the broad street bullies of the day.

    Two of the Bruins worst goons attack the Canadiens smallest player. It would eventually take multiple ambulances to cart the Bruins wounded off to the hospital. Story goes it took the entire Canadiens team and all the officials to stop little Henri Richard from killing multiple Bruins. At one point he was jumping up and down on one guy’s face with his skates while beating on another Bruin’s head with his stick.

    I assumed the story was horse bleep but ended up pulling up old Microfiche (remember microfiche) and sure enough the story was more or less accurate.

    I have wondered what on Earth possessed a drunk to back me into a corner and spend half an hour telling me a hockey story from 1960?

    My wife tells me it is simple. There was no Lowetide in 1978.

    I love old stories too, hockey people are fabulous with story telling, fans too. The lore of the game is in stories like this one.

  94. jtblack says:

    WOW. I am newer to this site. I actually left a different Oilers Site because I became tired of the Negativity. Not the debate necessarily, but the constant negativity towards the Oilers in General.

    I like what LT said on the radio: Something like: ” If Hall is the hill you want to die on, then so be it.” Those people will not truly enjoy the Oilers success now or for as long as they continue to be Angry. I don’t care who won the trade. I have my opinion, but it’s just that. Do you think Cam Talbot cares what we think? Connor? PC? Nobody really cares. Hall and Larsson certainly don’t care.

    Pre internet you used to have to go to bar, consume a few too many drinks and then get into a debate about this player or that player. Now we are all learning how to navigate the 2017 waters. I think all internet forums should be free of bullying and harassment (I am not saying that occurred here).

    This is know: LT is awesome. The write ups are great. His knowledge is extensive. And his logic and opinion are Top Shelf. I mean I don’t agree on Mark Fayne, but so be it. It’s just an opinion. The conversation for the most part is great. i just think some people get too caught up in proving how RIGHT they are.

    Maybe as a Forum we need to make a peace pact. Leave the Hall trade behind. Confess or Pledge not to discuss it on this site. not sure if that is possible, but it would be great, because then we can get to the task at hand; Discussing and debating how to build a Stanley Cup Team going forward !!!!!

    Props to LT: Props to all the quality Oilers Fans. Props to this site.

  95. Centre of attention says:

    pocession charge,

    Sorry, I was not meaning to lump ALL new posters together. There are some absolute gems here and I would give anything for us to all get along and discuss things in a civil manner.

    The last time this place really blew up, I was all over the threads trying to calm people down and make amends.

    I really, really, really enjoy this place when its at its best.

    N64: Woodguy got tired of raising his elbows when someone came charging across the ice to crosscheck him. If ya can’t ignore the high noise to signal guys best to stay away and do something more interesting than arguing at unhappy hour.

    Agree. For the record (and I hate speaking for him in his absence), WoodGuy can handle disagreement.

    He posts some numbers, somebody says disagrees, that’s fine.

    What he can’t take is people putting words in his mouth or taunting him with their responses.

    “Season Not Played” decided it was a great idea to disagree with WoodGuy on Lucic (which is absolutely fine, btw), and taunt him by sayings “Go ahead, throw some shade, post some numbers”

    I mean, what are you expecting as a response when you reply to him like that?

    That moment, among many others are why we can’t have nice things.

    I apologize to anyone I might be offending with my opinion of why things are the way they are, and I hope I haven’t sent the wrong message on WoodGuys part.

    I’ve made my fair share of dumb posts too, btw. I don’t want anyone here thinking I’m trying to be some white knight who can arbitrarily cast judgment on other peoples arguments/disagreements.

    But I also like to think I learned something from those dumb mistakes on my part and I want to help others avoid those kinds of things in the future.

    Anyways. There is a new thread so time to let this one die. You’re a saint for putting up with us, LT.

  96. stevezie says:

    VOR,

    I get the impression the answer may be before my time. Does it involve the islanders?

  97. N64 says:

    Lowetide: I love old stories too, hockey people are fabulous with story telling, fans too. The lore of the game is in stories like this one.

    Here’s a local story from before my time that I thought was an exaggeration the first time I heard it retold:

    http://thehockeywriters.com/50-years-ago-in-hockey-memorial-cup-final-to-continue/

  98. treevojo says:

    Centre of attention:

    To be honest I don’t think WG is coming back. Why come back when it seems hes not wanted? Of course people like me, you, and some other more veteran posters enjoy him.

    But now there are all these new people who seem to think they have as much sway over how we discuss things as the veteran posters do. Which is true, there is no hierarchy here. But damn, it would be awesome to at least get a little bit of respect and restraint when talking with those kinds of posters.

    If Bruce Wayne can come back posting under another name then Woodguy sure as shit can come back as 3.0.

    Of course there is a hierarchy here.

    I really only started posting last summer. I have been reading here pretty much daily since before the Hall draft I think. The only thing I know for sure is the background was blue and pretty much every post began with “this is so and so”.

    So just because there are new posters doesn’t mean they aren’t veteran readers.

    I have learned there is nothing wrong debating with your elbows up as long as you keep from saying offensive things.

    It shouldn’t be that hard.

  99. digger50 says:

    Glass: You don’t think the team is better with Larsson and without Hall? We’ve improved by virtually every metric. Also, look at our improved record against Pacific and Central teams. As well as our improved road record.

    There were also multiple players who alluded to the fact that the room was split and was ‘cliquey’. It doesn’t appear this way anymore, I mean the team seems rather close. Check out player’s social media, how they carry themselves in interviews, how they stick up for each other during the season and playoffs, etc.

    I’m interested in replying but out of time and end of the thread today. Hopefully tomorrow

  100. Pouzar says:

    You guys are all crazy.

  101. Stud Muffin says:

    If Connor gets the richest contract in NHL history and Draisaitl gets more than 7m Chiarelli fails the summer IMO

  102. MrEd says:

    Pouzar,

    I think Jari Kurri should have a eatery in the district. Indian food. Not joking.

  103. MrEd says:

    Wingers?

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