ONE IS THE LONELIEST NUMBER YOU’LL EVER DO

In a conversation I had with Frank Seravalli today, he offered his insight into Peter Chiarelli’s media avail earlier this week:

  • Seravalli: “I don’t see one of Eberle or Nugent-Hopkins back in Edmonton next season.”
  • Source

I trust Seravalli, who has shown an ability to suss out news and find out which way the wind blows consistently. His verbal came in response to my question about Chiarelli’s “nothing to see here” comments on Tuesday, a 30-minute period where it sounded like it was going to be a quiet summer with no “Taylor Hall” type trades. We have talked about Eberle and RNH as trade-out options, mostly because of the cap problems and more recently because of lack of scoring in the playoffs.

THE LESSON OF THE HALL TRADE

I went back to my May and June posts a year ago, looking for some kind of indicator or tip-off for the Hall trade. On the morning of June 29, in a post entitled Approaching Unicorns (good grief, Lowetide), I wrote the following:

  • With the news yesterday of the Lucic and Demers visits, I think we are getting an idea about the scope of this summer’s plans. We are talking major items, Lucic and some blue moves, and I suspect a major trade is also in the cards. I think Peter Chiarelli may have had the big contracts in play (Hall, Nuge, Ebs) but the possible returns (Dumba, etc) don’t excite him. So, and this is just a guess, we may see an active free-agent Friday followed by a period of silence—and it could last into the season. If PC adds Lucic and Demers, tweaks around the roster, and the team starts strong this fall? We may not see any major moves. If there is no target, why trade anyone? Keep your powder dry, build the best roster possible with the pieces available. I think adding Lucic and Demers might be the plan, and after that come what may. Source

My thinking parts failed me, again. We were on the right track here, but the Lucic visit should have signaled the Hall trade. We discussed it as possible and I did mention on the Lowdown that the player heading out (one of Hall, Nuge, Eberle) would be the player who Chiarelli felt delivered the most attractive return. Hindsight tells us that Nuge for Dumba was not as attractive to management as Hall for Larsson, and we are here.

So then, what are we looking at? If we take some of the recent names thrown out as a possible return, we get Ryan Strome (Darren Dreger) and Jason Demers (Bob Stauffer) as possible acquisitions. If we search for a similar return for Nuge, perhaps Mika Zibanejad or Justin Faulk. I understand that’s a wide range of values, but wanted to have a feel for the range before starting the list of possible forward acquisitions this summer. My list of defensemen is here, and I’ll have your forward list tomorrow morning.

Rutta is an interesting puck-moving option and may be a very good solution. He could also be the second coming on Anton Belov (in terms of quality). We wait for news.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

49 Responses to "ONE IS THE LONELIEST NUMBER YOU’LL EVER DO"

  1. blainer says:

    If Foo gets signed and we sign Rutta I think that may start movement at the expansion draft and beyond. I would really like to see a move for a faceoff winning center who can PK and chip in 15 goals brought in.

    I really don’t know if Chia has plans or not and wonder if even he knows. Sometimes things come your way when your not expecting them. Maybe he is the one that gets called on some of his players and a deal is done that he wasn’t expecting.. we wait.

  2. jonrmcleod says:

    “I don’t see one of Eberle or Nugent-Hopkins back in Edmonton next season.”

    I think this is a poorly worded statement. Taken literally, it means either both or neither will be back in Edmonton next season.

  3. John Chambers says:

    Willis has a good article up on ON referencing Eberle’s body of work, highlighting how Eberle’s trade value is low in relation to the player’s history.

    Like Willis, I think there’ll be a market for Eberle this summer. Maybe it’s a salary-dump move that gets you Pysyk or Strome, or maybe he’s the core piece in a 3-for-1 trade that gets you Faulk or Barrie.

    But if the market doesn’t return much of value keeping him another year isn’t a bad option.

  4. leadfarmer says:

    Last year I predicted 2 of Nuge Yak Eberle and Hall are gone by this year with one more gone by next year. I don’t see this changing at all

  5. N64 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I don’t see this changing at all

    You expect to predict that every year? 😉

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    If i remember it correctly, Bob S from Edmonton started saying things like “we know that Edmonton want a RHD and it may be someone who hasn’t been mentioned yet. An Adam Larrson type player.”

    I’m paraphrasing, but that was three days before the trade.

  7. jtblack says:

    I think it’s common knowledge the only reason Eberle is here now (last year) is because PC could not find a market for him.

    I have not problem with people laying out all kinds of historical stats, but when they do, I think it should be mentioned when the Stats have been in steady decline year over year. Yakupov’s stats were in decline year over year and he delivered another poor, declining year POST trade. I am not comparing Yak and Ebs, but what I am saying is that Eberle’s stats have declined year over year for 4 years. That is concerning. And all Other GM;’s aren’t dumb, it’s concerning to them too. That’s why Ebs on his own is not fetching a Top 4.

    My bet is that Ebs is gone by July 1st as part of a package deal.

    And I believe Ebs has value, just not as high as is perceived in Oil country

  8. Jethro Tull says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Lol, why does my phone keep autocorrecting Larsson to Larrson, his pirate brother?

  9. Richard S.S. says:

    McDavid could sign in the $12.0 – $15.0 Million range per year. He might sign for less, but I wouldn’t make plans on it. Draisaitl could sign in the $7.5 – $8.5 Million range per year. He might sign for less, but I wouldn’t make plans on it. Getting a good 2 RD and finding a replacement for Sekera will not be cheap. Filling other needs will cost something.

    Someone must be moved out now or things might get too tight otherwise. Not everyone has good enough trade value without sweetening the deal and that could be expensive. But it must be done. Waiting until you must trade someone is expensive. Trading someone a year early might get better value.

  10. Glass says:

    How does the Czech league compare to other EU leagues and then the NHL? Have to think his domination of the top league over there signifies he can at least take on bottom-pairing duties if needed.

    I watched a highlight video and he seems to have the speed necessary, and his size is definitely sufficient. Can’t really comment about how he is in his own zone.

  11. Scungilli Slushy says:

    First of all, thank you LT for another fantastic year visiting your place far more than I should. It is a refuge and stimulating.

    Second of all, this place comes across as a family; loving, bickering, blow ups, make ups, constant interaction (auto corrected by Woodguy’s phone to intestinal, he he) ups, downs, in betweens.

    What is here is appreciated by many. Thanks LT for the basement with the lenient parents upstairs.

    Woodguy: if you’re not getting a juicy enough offer to work for a team after your Skynet is launched, forgive us all and come back. We hate you but we miss you, just like a family should. Where’s the whiskey?

  12. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Oh, can Rutta skate?

  13. Richard S.S. says:

    Pouliot and Fayne will be too costly to keep and very expensive to trade. It must be done.
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is well appreciated by both Chiarelli and McClelland and at least 20 other Teams. Does he go, it depends on the return? Jordan Eberle still scores well and will be hard to replace. There are a few Teams that are interested in him and give good value. Waiting until you must trade someone will always reduce value. The choice is when do you trade someone.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Pouliot and Fayne will be too costly to keep and very expensive to trade.It must be done.

    Pretty sure you could trade Pouliot to Vegas. Send Pouliot and No. 22 overall to LV and that should satisfy them. Would you do that deal?

  15. Mr DeBakey says:

    “Rutta is an interesting puck-moving option and may be a very good solution.”

    Jan Rutta, who could’ve foreseen that?:
    https://tinyurl.com/lf5p25m

  16. Glass says:

    We don’t ‘have’ to do anything as we’re within the cap, and will get LTIR relief for Sekera.

    Hold onto Eberle and see if there is a market with the teams that lost out on Oshie. The only other RW’s on or above Eberle’s level that could be available are Niederreiter and Panarin I believe.

    For getting rid of Pouliot, if a 2018 2nd doesn’t get it done, I’m not really interested. Would it kill us to run a Pouliot/Nuge/Puljujarvi 3rd line? I can’t really see Pouliot having a worse year unless he is placed on the 4th line.

    Like others have said, there is a vast range of UFA veteran RWs available, which should suffice if Eberle is traded. Chia’s avail makes it seem like he wants to stick with Nuge for at least the next season.

  17. Richard S.S. says:

    Lowetide,

    Yes, every day.

  18. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide:
    Send Pouliot and No. 22 overall to LV and that should satisfy them. Would you do that deal?

    NoOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooOOOOOOOOooooo….!

    *screen fades to black as my primal scream tapers off*

    As a standing member of the Benoit Pouliot marching & chowder society I cannot allow this kind of deal to happen. 🙂

  19. Richard S.S. says:

    The Oilers need as much Cap Space as possible. The most surprising things happen when you can afford them.

  20. LMHF#1 says:

    Anton Belov is yet another in a line of players ruined by that evil coach the Oilers had.

    He was quite talented.

  21. Thinker says:

    Pretty sure if the NHL expanded to Russia, and Pouliot was on the roster, he would disappear in the middle of the night.

  22. Rondo says:

    Centre of attention: NoOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooOOOOOOOOooooo….!

    *screen fades to black as my primal scream tapers off*

    As a standing member of the Benoit Pouliot marching & chowder society I cannot allow this kind of deal to happen.

    Could stomach a trade like that if they didn’t trade #16 and #33 to the NYI.

  23. Jethro Tull says:

    LMHF#1:
    Anton Belov is yet another in a line of players ruined by that evil coach the Oilers had.

    He was quite talented.

    How many Anton Belovs are there? Cos the one i remember had the footspeed of the lead star of ‘Sloths on Ice!’ and a turning circle once described by a tanker captain as ‘wide and ponderous’.
    😊

  24. Centre of attention says:

    Rondo: Could stomach a trade like that if they didn’t trade #16 and #33 to the NYI.

    That’s like saying you would rather lose your foot than your hand.

    Both deals sound awful for the Oilers.

    Benoit is much maligned, but he is an NHL player. A guy who would slot into most teams top 9 seamlessly. I’d bet money he gets 12-15 goals next year whether its here or elsewhere.

    Why give up a first rounder just to give the bad guys (divisional rival!!) a decent if slightly over paid NHL player? He’s already probably the best player NHL player the Oilers will expose, throwing them a first rounder is overkill.

    They have to meet the Salary cap floor too, everyone is acting like Vegas is looking at Benoit like the plauge, and really that’s what Vegas wants everyone to think.

    In reality they need to add salary and why not have that salary be a decent NHL player? Heck, if he’s given the minutes and powerplay time I bet Benoit could hit 20G’s next year playing on a line with Shipachyov & Paranteau. “Book it.”

  25. Rondo says:

    Centre of attention,

    I think he is one of the best forecheckers on the Oilers

  26. Rondo says:

    Go Nashville

  27. leadfarmer says:

    That was about as weak 5 on 3 as they come

  28. Centre of attention says:

    Everyone on twitter acting like the Ducks are being undisciplined this period.

    In reality nothings changed in Anaheims game. Same level stick work / interference as always, the only difference is that these particular Refs are sick of turning a blind eye.

  29. jp says:

    Centre of attention: That’s like saying you would rather lose your foot than your hand.

    Both deals sound awful for the Oilers.

    Benoit is much maligned, but he is an NHL player. A guy who would slot into most teams top 9 seamlessly. I’d bet money he gets 12-15 goals next year whether its here or elsewhere.

    Why give up a first rounder just to give the bad guys (divisional rival!!) a decent if slightly over paid NHL player? He’s already probably the best player NHL player the Oilers will expose, throwing them a first rounder is overkill.

    They have to meet the Salary cap floor too, everyone is acting like Vegas is looking at Benoit like the plauge, andreally that’s what Vegas wants everyone to think.

    In reality they need to add salary and why not have that salary be a decent NHL player? Heck, if he’s given the minutes and powerplay time I bet Benoit could hit 20G’s next year playing on a line with Shipachyov & Paranteau. “Book it.”

    I wonder how much more respect/value Pouliot would have if he’d stayed healthy in his first 2 yrs with the Oilers and actually put up his pro-rated numbers:

    82-27-21-48
    82-21-33-54

  30. Centre of attention says:

    Forsberg!!! Atta’ boy!!!

  31. leadfarmer says:

    I could see a team taking Pou at 2 mil. No reason to throw in a first

  32. Pouzar says:

    Rondo:
    Go Nashville

    OMG They tied it.

    SUCK IT ANA!!!

  33. Centre of attention says:

    Oh man, Johanson just crushes Manson from behind right before Forsberg scored there.

    I don’t think anyone or anything can wipe the giant shit-eating grin I’m sporting right now off my face.

    Now watch the Ducks win in overtime, probably that crazy yahoo Rakell or something like that. Le sigh.

    Go Perds!

  34. Centre of attention says:

    leadfarmer:
    I could see a team taking Pou at 2 mil. No reason to throw in a first

    yes.

    Something like Pouliot with 50% retained for a conditional 3rd round pick. The pick will become a second rounder if he plays minimum 70 NHL games and scores at least 15 goals.

    Still don’t like that trade but it seems a lot more fair IMO.

  35. Centre of attention says:

    Centre of attention: Now watch the Ducks win in overtime

    FFS i hate when I’m right.

  36. dustrock says:

    Burn in hell, Anaheim Mighty Ducks.

  37. Centre of attention says:

    Jim Diamond‏ @diamondhockey
    Bob Murray walking away from Ducks locker room, “Where the fu@k are the referees?”

    Credentialed reporter catches Bob Murray fuming about the refs on his way to speak to them.

    I mean if I was the refs I would just point to the Edmonton series and be like “You already had yours, go pound sand”

  38. godot10 says:

    I want to root for the Predators, but then I see Laviollette behind the bench.

    Go Karlsson.

  39. Diablo says:

    godot10:
    I want to root for the Predators, but then I see Laviollette behind the bench.

    Go Karlsson.

    Yeah I just can’t bring myself to care about another team in a non-traditional market. But I do want Anaheim to lose, and act like the despicable losers that they are.

    I’m with you on Karlsson – he’s majestic player who I hope will one day get his name carved on the Stanley Cup.

  40. pocession charge says:

    Richard S.S.:
    The Oilers need as much Cap Space as possible.The most surprising things happen when you can afford them.

    Or you can get a bunch of cap space and waste it. I wouldn’t trade a first round pick to dump a useful, overpriced forward.

  41. Scungilli Slushy says:

    LMHF#1:
    Anton Belov is yet another in a line of players ruined by that evil coach the Oilers had.

    He was quite talented.

    Mr Belov had broken tie rods, but other than that pretty good

  42. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Centre of attention: yes.

    Something like Pouliot with 50% retained for a conditional 3rd round pick. The pick will become a second rounder if he plays minimum 70 NHL games and scores at least 15 goals.

    Still don’t like that trade but it seems a lot more fair IMO.

    Is LV going to have pcap floor issues? Many of their selections aren’t going to be high salary.

  43. Centre of attention says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Is LV going to have pcap floor issues? Many of their selections aren’t going to be high salary.

    I mean, if they are digging around in the KHL for former All-Star NHLers thats a good way to get your cap up.

    Radulov, Dadonov, Kovalchuk, Shipachyov.

    That’s pretty much 4/6 of SKA’s top 6 or something like that LOL. (ok Radulov played for CSKA but what evs)

    Hows that for reaching the cap floor.

    Throw Pouliot, in there, sign PA Paranteau in free agency. They could have a pretty competitive top 9 if they wanted, surprisingly. The last few expansion teams didn’t have the benefit of pillaging threw another pro league like the KHL, at least not in its current form.

    Man. They should hire me as GM 🙂

  44. Ducey says:

    godot10:
    I want to root for the Predators, but then I see Laviollette behind the bench.

    Go Karlsson.

    I want to root for OTT then I think of Eugene Melnyks name on the Cup.

    Go someone else.

  45. Lloyd B. says:

    Love Three Dog Night. With their catalog could easily be a RE.

    First album I ever bought.

  46. Lowetide says:

    Lloyd B.:
    Love Three Dog Night. With their catalog could easily be a RE.

    First album I ever bought.

    I love that song (One), remember it playing on the radio as a kid.

  47. YKOil says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Is LV going to have pcap floor issues? Many of their selections aren’t going to be high salary.

    Answer is ‘not really’. I suspect they do go low on the salaries in the expansion draft so they can ensure they have cap space to use for trades, i.e. go ‘mostly-cheap’ and snag an expensive goalie (for the back-up bench – Hi Dallas!) and forward to make up the space they need to hit the floor.

    Problem will be how badly they get caved. Despite any LV quotes we may read the fact is LV – unless they go full Florida – will be in deep no matter what so the question then becomes whether or not they want to ‘seem’ competitive. Seeming competitive means a decent goalie, at least one okay defensive pair, at least one ‘sound 5v5 line and a couple of PP and PK guys.

    So not enough to actually win games but enough to make it seem plausible that they will win games.

    Pouliot is a great fit for them and I expect to see him find his way there before the start of the year. He checks off all the boxes for the 2017/18 and gives them a really good trade chip (2nd rounder or better) at the deadline in 2018/19.

    When it comes to the Oilers, barring a trade with the Oilers, LV has three moves:

    1. Seem competitive: Pouliot
    2. Development: Reinhart (and maybe Khaira… but no, it would be Reinhart)
    3. Flipping the asset: Letestu

    So, if I am PC, do I agree to give up the Oilers 1st for the LV 2nd to ensure they take Pouliot? Even knowing Pouliot is a choice they may be already planning on? What of I can get them to take Fayne as well? Even knowing that Fayne is worth, at least, a 3rd rounder at the trade deadline this season?

    Btw, how many forget that Fayne has value this year at the trade deadline? So many are so dismissive but the fact is he is a defenseman, right handed, with 389 games played at the NHL level – and he will be cheap by the time the trade deadline hits. He actually represents one of our better, surer, trade values this upcoming year

    If you are LV, imo, you have to seriously consider a trade of:

    Oilers 1st, a 2018 3rd of some kind (Fayne) and a 2019 2nd of some kind (Pouliot chosen in expansion draft)
    FOR
    LV 2nd

    over the straight forward choice of Reinhart.

    It will be an interesting summer.

  48. GBandQ says:

    “Rutta is an interesting puck-moving option and may be a very good solution. He could also be the second coming on Anton Belov (in terms of quality). We wait for news.”

    according to Elliot Friedman, “28. Remember Anton Belov, a defenceman who played 57 games for Edmonton in 2013–14? Word is he’s considering a return engagement. But it would be a year from now.”

  49. New Improved Darkness says:

    jonrmcleod: “I don’t see one of Eberle or Nugent-Hopkins back in Edmonton next season.”

    I think this is a poorly worded statement. Taken literally, it means either both or neither will be back in Edmonton next season.

    No one would take it literally.

    It either means:

    I don’t see exactly one of Eberle or Nugent-Hopkins back in Edmonton next season.

    –or–

    I don’t see one out of Eberle or Nugent-Hopkins back in Edmonton next season.

    ———

    Mitt: How are the pageant girls, this year?

    Ervil: Well, let’s just say, I don’t see one as my future wife.

    Mitt: Out of the whole gaggle?

    Ervil: Best not to separate. That would be cruel.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca