RE 16-17 PATRICK MAROON: I MIGHT BE WRONG

I found Patrick Maroon when he was matriculating toward the NHL. On a lazy Sunday afternoon while looking for minor league all-stars, he caught my eye. He was big, had good hands and foot speed was an issue.

Patrick Maroon is a big guy. Massive forward (6.04, 225) has some offensive ability and looks like he might be ready for NHL action at age 24. He went 75, 32-42-74 with Syracuse last season and the Anaheim Ducks may look to him this coming season. My question is this: why wouldn’t the Oilers overpay for a guy who had survived through to the AHL, instead of taking a long shot draft pick and waiting 5 years to find out? It is such a crazy slot in the order–big, tough, mean prick who can do things around the net and take plus make a pass. Even if you overpay, it’s worth getting a guy who has a good chance to make it. Right? Source

What I noticed about him (over time) was his consistent improvement. Maroon finally made it to the NHL and keeps on improving. No matter what happens from now through the end of this decade, Patrick Maroon as Oiler is going to be a fantastic story. (I Might Be Wrong).

PATRICK MAROON 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.82 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 1.96 (8th among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 53.3
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: +3.9
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 54.1
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: +6.4 (36 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 178 shots/15.2%
  • Boxcars: 81, 27-15-42
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS

  • RE 16-17: 72gp, 12-15-27 0.375
  • Actual 16-17: 81gp, 27-15-42 0.519
  • Source
  1. That was awesome! Yes, it could not have worked out better for Maroon and the Oilers. A terrific season with substantial even-strength production.
  2. What were his even-strength numbers? He posted 24-12-36 at evens, 24-11-35 at 5×5. Tremendous season, those 24 goals at 5×5 rank him No. 1 on the Oilers and No. 5 across the entire league.
  3. What about power play? He did not get 1PP time (although playing over 150 minutes on a busy 2PP) but he did score three goals with the man advantage.
  4. That shooting percentage stands out. Yes, it does. He shot 8.7 percent in Anaheim and has been 16.1 since arriving in Edmonton.
  5. Will that go down? Obvious answer is yes but he is playing with McDavid so there is no clear answer to this question. Some of his goals were tap-ins.
  6. Could he score 30? Well I didn’t count but if you add up all the 10-bell chances McDavid set up that didn’t cash? He might have had 35 or more.
  7. Will Lucic take the job back? I think most of us think this season will light a fire under Lucic’s ass (say that five times in a row) but Maroon has some things that give him the advantage.
  8. Like? He is faster and more mobile.
  9. Anything else? Suspect Maroon is the first 97 winger to use ‘less is more’ as a mantra and just head to the net with his stick on the ice. Seems a few wingers still have some learning to do.
  10. Did McDavid perform well with Maroon? Yes. He was 2.88/60 scoring at 5×5 and had a Corsi for 5×5 of 52.9 with Maroon. Without? He was 2.90 and 52.9.
  11. The contract is amazing. Yes! Plus Anaheim has to pay $500,000 of the $2 million!
  12. Just one year left though. Yeah, but I don’t think it is going to be a major worry. Maroon will get a raise, and maybe too much term, but there is no big contract available in Edmonton. He might get more elsewhere but the opportunity to win in Edmonton is here and now. That has lots of appeal.
  13. How was he in the playoffs? Went 13, 3-5-8. Good production, although that line struggled to equal regular-season production.
  14. Will 17-18 be his last season with the Oilers?  I don’t think so. Maroon is 29 and has scored 35 goals in 97 regular-season games with Edmonton. That is good production.
  15.  No one on the horizon to take his place? He bested Lucic for the job and Todd McLellan abandoned Pouliot as an option (despite some nice numbers) all season. The best LW prospect in the system is Tyler Benson and he can’t stay healthy. Unless they convert the Nuge and run three C’s on that line I think Maroon owns it until his production falters.
  16. Lucic can’t win it back? Maroon is faster and has chem. I like his chances there.
  17. Is this Chiarelli’s best trade? No, I would go with Talbot but this might be the highest return on value given.
  18. What? Talbot’s price was a bunch of picks. Worthwhile, but one day those picks will have their own NHL careers and we may see things differently in full bloom. Maroon’s cost was minimal.
  19. Your little note from years ago turned out to be true. Still true today. Shoot the moon at the draft, pick prospects who have a chance to be high skill.
  20. Is that what Chiarelli is doing? Yes, I would say so. The second-round pick (Benson) has a complete skill set but plenty of offense. With the Oilers unlikely to draft inside the top 10 in the coming years (not impossible but unlikely) I think we will see high skill chosen in Round 1 this summer.
  21. Back to Maroon. Does his role change next season? No, not in my view. The Oilers have something that clearly works, and if they falter Todd McLellan can always shake things up. Maroon’s size, digging ability and good hands make him a solid option for McDavid’s line. The fact they have chem makes it even better.
  22. You like these salvage types, don’t you? Oh yes, one of the early players of this type I discovered was Larry Mavety. I cheered for him all down the line and was pleased to see him carve out a fine WHA career. Maroon had many natural gifts and was also blessed with a work ethic and enough aptitude to learn his trade. There’s a tremendous amount to respect about this player.
  23. Is he one of the Oilers’ insiders? I don’t understand.
  24. Is he part of the group destined to be here for the good times? These are the good times.
  25. You never struck me as a quitter. Good grief. If the Oilers win in the next three seasons, I bet he will be here. How is that?
  26. Why this song? Lots of reasons. It’s a guitar song, Maroon is a guitar player. I love the imagery for Maroon (“I could have sworn I saw a light coming on”) and the title serves as a reminder to all those scouts now working in a dull career who didn’t see the progress that was so clearly there all along.

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46 Responses to "RE 16-17 PATRICK MAROON: I MIGHT BE WRONG"

  1. Woogie63 says:

    Josh Anderson is the new Patrick Maroon

  2. JDI says:


    Jon Morosi‏Verified account @jonmorosi

    Acute compartment syndrome often develops over time after impact; it can be limb- and life-threatening. Again, Johansen is doing well now.

    Speculate no more.

  3. JDI says:

    Good one, Randy:

    Nick Cotsonika‏Verified account @cotsonika

    Carlyle reminds media talking about Johansen that Ducks lost Eaves to injury.

  4. Chachi says:

    JDI:
    Good one, Randy:

    Nick Cotsonika‏Verified account @cotsonika


    Carlyle reminds media talking about Johansen that Ducks lost Eaves to injury.

    That Randy Carlyle is a real scoundrel and his team is filled with a bunch of ne’er-do-wells!

  5. Professor Q says:

    JDI:
    Good one, Randy:

    Nick Cotsonika‏Verified account @cotsonika


    Carlyle reminds media talking about Johansen that Ducks lost Eaves to injury.

    They really ARE the Trump Squad© of the NHL…

  6. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    https://oilersnation.com/2017/05/20/oilers-sign-pakarinen/ Oilers sign Pakarinen?

    It gives the Oilers the freedom to trade Benoit Pouliot.

  7. godot10 says:

    Friedman says the McDavid camp is suggesting they might be interested in a 5 year deal. i.e. They WANT to see the new CBA.

  8. Diablo says:

    godot10: https://oilersnation.com/2017/05/20/oilers-sign-pakarinen/

    And protect Letestu – yay!

    No seriously – replacing Letestu would not have been easy given that he’s the best face-off man on the team, the only RHC, is a very good PKer and has a pretty decent one timer on the PP – even if the Oilers find another RH trigger man for PP1, he can still slide down to PP2. A very solid vet.

    Pakarinen on that contract is fine for depth next season – not a cap buster. Nice simple, well-executed signing by the Oilers – not such a big deal really, until you consider how previous regimes used to botch this kind of thing.

  9. Diablo says:

    godot10:
    Friedman says the McDavid camp is suggesting they might be interested in a 5 year deal.i.e. They WANT to see the new CBA.

    If he signs for 5 years, would he be restricted or unrestricted FA at the end of it?

  10. Diablo says:

    JDI:
    Good one, Randy:

    Nick Cotsonika‏Verified account @cotsonika


    Carlyle reminds media talking about Johansen that Ducks lost Eaves to injury.

    Everyday I loath the Ducks and everyone in their organization a little bit more.
    From top to bottom they are just the most despicable team in the NHL.

  11. JDI says:

    Professor Q: Trump Squad©

    While I am easy, I’m no supporter. But if DT gets any credit for those kind of tactics, then Led Zeppelin should get full credit for When The Levee Breaks.

  12. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    Friedman says the McDavid camp is suggesting they might be interested in a 5 year deal.i.e. They WANT to see the new CBA.

    Amen. Load up young man. Sign a five year THEN the eight year.

  13. JDI says:

    godot10:
    Friedman says the McDavid camp is suggesting they might be interested in a 5 year deal.i.e. They WANT to see the new CBA.

    They also said that Leon won’t be paid very much less than McDavid.

    To quote Hall, “I can’t go for that.”

  14. godot10 says:

    Diablo: If he signs for 5 years, would he be restricted or unrestricted FA at the end of it?

    Unrestricted.

    It is not-surprising that they want to see the new CBA. The years beyond the CBA are a black hole.

    We should NOT make a big deal out of this. Connor has the power to dictate money, signing bonus, and duration. It is the responsiblity of Katz on down to maintain a good relationship with the player.

  15. godot10 says:

    If Connor goes for 5, then the most likely term for Draisaitl is 7 years, expiring one year after Connor.

  16. MrEd says:

    So fine. 5 years because the bet on McDavid’s side is that the economy is going to change with the new CBA. Does that help the Oilers with the the dollar factor on the near term (5 year) side?

  17. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I made a Trump joke about the Hacks (my 7 yo unprovoked calls them the Sucks) but I would bet Connors advisors want to term out his deal past the next US election. It’s hard to imagine a second term and there could be an economic spike after the crazy.

    Of course nobody knows but if you had to advise somebody what else could you say with so much economic uncertainty because of the Pres? I am in favour of a deal that sets up control into his early 30’s.

  18. who says:

    I don’t think Maroon is faster than Lucic. In fact I think Lucic may be faster in a straight line. Maroon may have better mobility but neither one of them moves well laterally. Maroon won the job because he showed better hands around the net.
    That’s why I think Caggiula is a good bet to spend significant time on McDavids left wing next year as long as he keeps going to the net and shooting the puck. He has a much better skill set to play with high end talent. Both Lucic and Maroon do not have the speed to keep up with Mcdavid through the neutral zone.

  19. Professor Q says:

    Diablo: If he signs for 5 years, would he be restricted or unrestricted FA at the end of it?

    Depends on the new CBA terms?

  20. MrEd says:

    With Maroon, Lucic, and Drake down the Left side, all is right for McDavid.

  21. who says:

    godot10: Unrestricted.

    It is not-surprising that they want to see the new CBA.The years beyond the CBA are a black hole.

    We should NOT make a big deal out of this. Connor has the power to dictate money, signing bonus, and duration.It is the responsiblity of Katz on down to maintain a good relationship with the player.

    We can spin it any way we want but if he only signs for 5 years then Edmonton only has him for sure for 6 more years. And if they don’t resign him after the 5th summer they may only have him for 5. No way can the oilers let him walk away for nothing after 6 years. They would have to trade him after 5.

  22. --hudson-- says:

    Maroon sounds like another player who has trouble staying in shape. This article from 2008 mentions he lost over 30lbs in the offseason. https://www.nhl.com/news/no-longer-fat-pat-maroon-turning-flyers-heads/c-380676

    Last summer it was the same story with reports of him losing between 10 and 25lbs. So it seems at some point between junior and last season he was back up to 250-260 pounds. Perhaps this explains why the Ducks moved him off the Perry-Getzlaf line (along with the emergence of Rackell)

    In Maroons exit interview he says he’s accepted the lifestyle and plans on repeating his regimen from last summer. Will be eye opening to see if he comes in below 227 (his current weight).

  23. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10:
    If Connor goes for 5, then the most likely term for Draisaitl is 7 years, expiring one year after Connor.

    Or they could go shorter and less dollars because he isn’t Connor and see what he does. He’s brilliant but not a given yet. He doesn’t command a second line yet,playoff run acknowledged.

    So many teams have overpaid for a short sample, a fair shorter bridge for Leon and hook him up if he keeps on for 8.

    For me it’s about avoiding a UFA signing at 26 – 28, the most expensive time to do it.

  24. Professor Q says:

    JDI: While I am easy, I’m no supporter. But if DT gets any credit for those kind of tactics, then Led Zeppelin should get full credit for When The Levee Breaks.

    I’m quite confused about this response, on multiple levels…

  25. MrEd says:

    –hudson–,

    He has one more year. Up to him.

  26. --hudson-- says:

    who: We can spin it any way we want but if he only signs for 5 years then Edmonton only has him for sure for 6 more years. And if they don’t resign him after the 5th summer they may only have him for 5. No way can the oilers let him walk away for nothing after 6 years. They would have to trade him after 5.

    It will basically the same situation as Crosby and Stamkos. There’s no guarantee Chia will still be around in 5 years and it’s unlikely McLellan will still be here. Hopefully McDavid will be worth a huge contract, willing to sign it, and the Oilers management do right by McD.

    At the same time, this is why we fans have to cherish McD. He’s dedicated his life to the game and won the genetic lottery, he deserves a choice in where he plays.

  27. MrEd says:

    #12. Just one year left though. Yeah, but I don’t think it is going to be a major worry. Maroon will get a raise, and maybe too much term, but there is no big contract available in Edmonton. He might get more elsewhere but the opportunity to win in Edmonton is here and now. That has lots of appeal.

    Here and now.

  28. Ray says:

    Connor might come in at 5×9…. That’s almost a value deal 🙂

    Leon at 7×7 has a nice ring to it

  29. MrEd says:

    Ray,
    Cheers. Interesting opinion.

  30. VOR says:

    I hate when the math tells me to do something my heart doesn’t want to do. But talking about Patrick Maroon reminds me that I identified him in his first year in the AHL as a target of interest for the Oilers. The same metrics are now telling me the Oilers should acquire Christian Fischer from Arizona. The minute you start thinking about Arizona and trades it becomes obvious Arizona would be a great destination for Jordan Eberle. Fischer and Arizona’s second round draft choice and five million in cap room this year for Eberle would mathematically speaking be a better deal then Eberle for Strome.

  31. godot10 says:

    LIke it will be a mistake to re-sign Russell for more than one season at a time, it will be a mistake to re-sign Maroon next summer for more than one season at a time.

    Neither is a core player. Both will be 30ish. So neither should get duration.

  32. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10:
    LIke it will be a mistake to re-sign Russell for more than one season at a time, it will be a mistake to re-sign Maroon next summer for more than one season at a time.

    Neither is a core player.Both will be 30ish.So neither should get duration.

    I agree, but it depends on circumstance and both have courtesy of the run some cache now. Typically useful players around 30 don’t sign one year deals. I wouldn’t either, last big payday for a player not considered top level or core.

  33. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    I hate when the math tells me to do something my heart doesn’t want to do. But talking about Patrick Maroon reminds me that I identified him in his first year in the AHL as a target of interest for the Oilers. The same metrics are now telling me the Oilers should acquire Christian Fischer from Arizona. The minute you start thinking about Arizona and trades it becomes obvious Arizona would be a great destination for Jordan Eberle. Fischer and Arizona’s second round draft choice and five million in cap room this year for Eberle would mathematically speaking be a better deal then Eberle for Strome.

    He seems like he has a nose for the net. I have a feeling this regime intends to give players a chance to step into a role based on previous play. It’s a good management decision in terms of team building, a bit risky if it doesn’t pan out. But they have a nice group of prospect wingers in Cags Slepy JP. As LT says Pete is a riverboat gambler.

  34. stush18 says:

    VOR:
    I hate when the math tells me to do something my heart doesn’t want to do. But talking about Patrick Maroon reminds me that I identified him in his first year in the AHL as a target of interest for the Oilers. The same metrics are now telling me the Oilers should acquire Christian Fischer from Arizona. The minute you start thinking about Arizona and trades it becomes obvious Arizona would be a great destination for Jordan Eberle. Fischer and Arizona’s second round draft choice and five million in cap room this year for Eberle would mathematically speaking be a better deal then Eberle for Strome.

    I agree, although it’s a bad move sending a legit NHL winger out for a prospect unless you KNOW you have someone coming in to replace the money

  35. stush18 says:

    Ray:
    Connor might come in at 5×9…. That’s almost a value deal 🙂

    Leon at 7×7 has a nice ring to it

    5 x 9.7

    Hoping Leon gets just under 7. He still has some RFA years left.

    They hardballed gaudreau into less than 7 and he had less RFA years. I think drai should get 6.5-6.8

  36. VOR says:

    Scungilli slushy,

    I am trying to solve some of tomorrow’s problems today. Maybe it would be more accurate to say the mathematical modelling I am doing is leading me to believe we have significant depth problems. I think the Oilers current GM would agree with that statement. While his priority has to be extending McDavid and Draisatal he knows he also needs to broaden his forward prospect pool and stabilize his defence.

    In my model the Oilers use their first two picks to take forwards, say Shane Bowers and Kole Lind two young men who fit LT’s goal of drafting players who have many ways to make the NHL. They resign Pitlick. Depending on Vegas the Oilers would have Pitlick, Kharia, Slepy, and Cags in the NHL. They would have JP and Fischer on the cusp and Lind, Bowers and maybe Benson in the system along with more college kids. Perhaps they add Spencer Foo. What they lack in high end right wing scoring they make up in tremendous depth.

    They use the cap space resulting from the trade to resign Russell and acquire say Brian Campbell.

  37. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    Scungilli slushy,

    I am trying to solve some of tomorrow’s problems today. Maybe it would be more accurate to say the mathematical modelling I am doing is leading me to believe we have significant depth problems. I think the Oilers current GM would agree with that statement. While his priority has to be extending McDavid and Draisatal he knows he alsoneeds to broaden his forward prospect pool and stabilize his defence.

    In my model the Oilers use their first two picks to take forwards, say Shane Bowers and Kole Lind two young men who fit LT’s goal of drafting players who have many ways to make the NHL. They resign Pitlick. Depending on Vegas the Oilers would have Pitlick, Kharia, Slepy, and Cags in the NHL. They would have JP and Fischer on the cusp and Lind, Bowers and maybe Benson in the system along with more college kids. Perhaps they add Spencer Foo. What they lack in high end right wing scoring they make up in tremendous depth.

    They use the cap space resulting from the trade to resign Russell and acquire say Brian Campbell.

    I think that is smart. It takes advantage of the McDavid bump – anybody playing with him will likely score above their level.

    I believe this is predicated on first a solid puck moving D core. The forwards need to support things but need the puck in good places. Second that the beneficiaries of the bump do the dirty work.

    It really bugs me to those watch players look for set ups and the special guy too far in the trenches. Not that anyone should avoid things, but know your place – Maroon gets it and that is part of why he played where he did.

    Crosby plays behind and beside the net down low, but it’s Sheary and Guentzel gutting themselves in the trenches, sliding in when the play is not on their side, Crosby supporting. The way it should be.

    Edit – Crosby supporting the board play as he has to.

  38. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    Not sure what your Model is … but I like it … build depth with multiple possible players. The Oilers haven’t had depth since 2006

    Maroon is scary for me. Props to him and Wow; LT nailed it when hebwas in the minors. We already have 1 heavy contract at LW. We cannot afford another overpay at LW. Although the possibilty of winning matters, I see Maroon leaving for Greener pastures after this yr. If he puts up 20+ Goals he will prob get $4 – $5 Mil per

  39. Lloyd B. says:

    Chiarelli says in his year end presser that signing McDavid is job one. Drai job two.

    Since then he has signed Wells and now Pakarinen.

    As much as I like Chiarelli keeping his cards close to the vest…He’s obviously a liar !! :))

  40. digger50 says:

    Getzlaf fined 10,000 dollars? Anybody know details?

  41. Jon K says:

    The Oilers cannot accept a 5 year deal with McDavid. You hope for the best but prepare for the worst. 5 years only gets them one year of UFA. Have to think that Chiarelli is aiming for a 3 year or 8 year deal to retain control or maximize value. We can all hope that McDavid wants to spend his entire career in Edmonton, but we have to prepare for the possibility that he leaves once he attains UFA status.

  42. GMB3 says:

    digger50:
    Getzlaf fined 10,000 dollars?Anybody know details?

    Called someone a xxxer is what the verbal was a twitter. I’m honestly don’t see that as homophobic, from my experience as an athlete much worse gets said all the time.

    Sorry LT if that word crosses a line here, if so feel free to delete

  43. godot10 says:

    Jon K:
    The Oilers cannot accept a 5 year deal with McDavid. You hope for the best but prepare for the worst. 5 years only gets them one year of UFA. Have to think that Chiarelli is aiming for a 3 year or 8 year deal to retain control or maximize value. We can all hope that McDavid wants to spend his entire career in Edmonton, but we have to prepare for the possibility that he leaves once he attains UFA status.

    The OIlers have no choice in the matter. It is important to realize when you have a choice and when you don’t.

    McDavid can go to the restricted free agent marketplace and get whatever contract he wants.

    About all the Oilers can do is influence the dollar amount by making a presentation to the McDavid team about the cap consequences of various dollar figures when you pass a blank sheet of paper over to them and ask them for the duration and dollar terms.

    The Oilers are somewhat fortunate that the CBA wasn’t expiring sooner, or else they would not have even been able to get 5 years.

  44. Soup Fascist says:

    Maybe I am falling for all the Little Rig mush that Sportsnet is pushing l, but I think if the Blues give Maroon a reasonable offer he is St. Louis bound.

    Either Maroon is the greatest actor in the world, or that is where his preferred destination is.

  45. highgloveside says:

    Maroon is McDavids Kunitz.
    A guy you get great value from because his contract never gets too high cause everyone knows he would produce half as much without McDavid/Crosby that he woulf be a 3rd liner making even less.

    Maroon will be around $3.75 mill on his next contract, great value for a big 25 goal power forward but $1 mill more than he would make not playing with McDavid.

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