HELP IS ON THE WAY

Rob Vollman published new NHL equivalency numbers the other day, that means it is a good time to review the prospects and see which of them might be able to score enough to emerge on an NHL skill line someday.

NHLE FORWARDS 2016-17

  • An asterisk (*) means I’m not using Vollman’s NHLE but have borrowed Christian Roatis’ ciphering via NHLNumbers.
  • The teenagers (2016 draft) are in green and represent the group that has the best chance to spike.
  • Benson’s number is more impressive than Puljujarvi’s, but JP is playing in a man’s league and is two months younger than Benson. Rasanen and McPhee don’t show up in a spot where we can project them as NHL players, let alone being able to chip in offensively. Draft+2 should give us a better idea about these four men, although Benson’s injury is a major concern.
  • Gambardella and Vesel are 23, Laleggia 24. Men who are five or six years older than Puljujarvi should be expected to deliver more offense, and Laleggia’s numbers above (the 43 games after Boxing Day) suggest he might be the most promising scorer among the older group.
  • Not many noticed but Jujhar Khaira (22) blossomed offensively and may be that rare player developed in the AHL who can be a 30-point NHL player. He is big, strong, rugged and mean, so 10-15 goal offense may mean a decade in the show.
  • I’m not using the Vollman accelerator because Mikko Rantanen took almost exactly 47 percent of his AHL offense to the show. JP accelerated would be NHLE 31.2, just in case you wanted to know.
  • When Nail Yakupov was having his struggles as a young player, an NHL pro scout told me the Oilers badly needed to find a responsible center for Nail. A mentor was required because Yak’s overall game was so raw and his natural tendencies involved stickhandling his way into trouble. Edmonton never really did get that done (Derek Roy helped offensively but it remained a possession nightmare) for Nail, perhaps the Oilers have an ideal situation up the middle now.
  • JP played well with McDavid (2.86 scoring 5×5/60, 53.8 percent 5×5 Corsi for) and Leon (1.68 scoring 5×5/60, 52.1 percent 5×5 Corsi for). Zero points and 47.7 with Nuge.
  • If Puljujarvi finds a place alongside McDavid, my RE for Puljujarvi would be about 50 points. I sincerely believe 97 makes that much of a difference.

NHLE DEFENSE 2016-17

  • Oesterle isn’t signed but I think the Oilers should try very hard. Just coming into his own and the chaos might be worth it.
  • Bear and Jones (plus Mantha) give Edmonton four defensemen whose NHLE exceeds 20 points.
  • The youngsters (in green) are all matriculating but don’t show especially well. Berglund is somewhat similar to Puljujarvi, in that he played in a pro league but didn’t get to play big minutes. In fact, Berglund’s TOI is about half of normal, so if he plays regularly next season we should see a more handsome number.
  • Five of the 14 names here are righties. The Leftorium is weakening!
  • As always, important to remember much of the value for defensemen (most of them) is tied to defense. When we talk about Ziyat Paigin, we rarely mention the defensive side but that’s a big part of his effectiveness. We will see it this coming season.

HELP IS ON THE WAY

How many of these names will be able to help next season? Or, perhaps a better question would be how many of these names will be able to survive in the NHL next season. Borrowing from my recent Farm Workers post:

  • Jesse Puljujarvi, Jujhar Khaira and Griffin Reinhart. Joey Laleggia should be mentioned here, Oilers have some interesting prospects now. Laurent Brossoit has made it, although it’s uncertain at what level. Source

So that’s Puljujarvi, Khaira and Reinhart and one of those may be in Vegas opening night. I think this is a sign of progress, as Edmonton won’t have a strong rookie on their roster to begin the season. I say this now, but if Spencer Foo signs, that may change things.

GAMBARDELLA

Drake Caggiula’s NHLE one year ago (44 points) is slightly higher than Joe Gambardella’s and I’m not certain the young man from Staten Island has a clear path to the NHL (as was the case with Caggiula). He would certainly be among the first candidates for recall based on his NHLE and his short audition in Bakersfield (6gp, 1-2-3, I saw two of those games and he was like a duck to water). At this point, I’ll definitely have him in the RE for fall, just a matter of what else the Oilers do this summer. One thing to look for: Massive upgrade at center for the Condors.

STRAIGHT SHOOTER

Spencer Foo would be a great fit for these Edmonton Oilers. He went 38gp, 26-36-62 (NHLE: 30.8) last season, with 147 shots in 37 games (site doesn’t include game No. 38). That means Foo averaged four shots a game last season in college. Edmonton Eskimos fan. Volume shooter. Giddyup.

JAN RUTTA

This blog has gathered contacts (and friends) from all walks of life over the years. It’s one of the real pleasures of dropping by, I hope you have connected with some of the fine posters here and enjoyed your stay.

One of the things these contacts allow me to do is DM questions about specific hockey moments. Sometimes I will get an email saying “look, you don’t know me but I worked for an NHL team and your post on May 10 is wrong and here’s why” and sometimes I reach out.

Not long ago, the Oilers were connected with Czech RHD Jan Rutta. Edmonton (along with Calgary and various other NHL teams) are interested in signing the 26-year old offensive defender. I reached out to multiple sources and got back things like “he played well at the World Hockey Championships” but little else. Whatever he may be, Rutta remains something of a mystery. Maybe this little item will inspire someone to email me about him.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back! 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside. Predators are through, Penguins can cash their ticket tonight!
  • Jonathan Willis, Oilers Nation. Oilers summer: Screaming targets.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Expansion draft scenarios including trade possibilities.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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72 Responses to "HELP IS ON THE WAY"

  1. Woogie63 says:

    We are in a tough spot for the next 60 games,

    we will have to really stretch two 3rd pairing dman into second pairing, and this makes our third pairing a big question mark.

    But 80 games from now we will have lots of help on the way.

  2. supernova says:

    How do the expected points adjustment work when we factor in Even strength scoring or Primary points?

  3. hunter1909 says:

    Bye bye Ducks.

    However…

    Oilers will be forced to go through these clowns for the next 2-3 seasons at least. Better keep hold of their tough players.

    Therefore, please…no more talking up 5 foot 7 inch midget players who aren’t going to help the team win anything aside from lottery picks.

  4. anjinsan says:

    It’s nuts to be projecting Puljujarvi’s current numbers just like it would have been nuts to project Draisaitl’s early NHL numbers.

  5. JDI says:

    anjinsan: It’s nuts to be projecting Puljujarvi’s current numbers

    Are you referring to NHLe? Because it’s not a predictor of future NHL points, it’s a way of comparing prospects between very dissimilar leagues.

    When LT says that JP would score more on McDavid’s wing, I believe he’s suggesting that JP’s NHLe would be positively impacted by McDavid, and not predicting anything.

  6. Nate780 says:

    hunter1909,

    So no Caggiulas or Atkinsons? those type of players don’t help?

  7. Lowetide says:

    As per above, an NHLE is not a projection, it’s a way of putting players from different leagues and levels on the same line. It’s kind of google translate. If you were going to project JP, you would have to do things like estimate linemates, power-play time, et cetera. That’s what I do with RE each summer and that was what I was writing about in regard to Puljujarvi.

  8. jtblack says:

    LT: Have you read “The Undoing Project”? … Start of the book is all about projecting prospects in Basketball … but very interesting …

    Love this post. The numbers are incredible and help give a clearer picture of the pipeline … One idea I have (stealing from The Undoing Project) is that you should factor in Age when you throw in your League Adjustment. To give a .47 weighting to Khaira and Puljujarvi, even though Khaira is 4 years older, does not make sense … Either JP’s should be bumped as he was the youngest player in the AHL, or Khaira’s should be dropped slightly … Your modeling would suggest these two players have the same offensive NHLe, but I think we would all agree, that JP’s upside and NHLe is much higher than Khaira’s.

    You mentioned Cagguila’s NHLe of 44. He scored 24 pts (pro rated over 82). Is the 44 supposed to be his NHL ceiling or was that the estimate for his rookie season?

    How is Foo’s skating?

    If Mantha can put up 20 points and play NHL D, we need him here tomorrow. At 6.5″ I feel like this player might jump all the RHD in the pipeline, including Bear.

    You mentioned how JP could score 50 if he has some chem and ice time with McD. I absolutely agree. As much credit as Connor did get, I think we are overlooking just how far his brush affected his teammates. Maroon and Leon certainly got a boost from regular minutes with 97. But if you look at 2 players that were horrendous 5 x 5 (Lucic & Letestu), they saved their seasons by feasting on Leftovers on McD’s PP ….. I know they still had to cash and earned those goals … but you can attribute the Devastating PP#1 to Connor. Plain and Simple..

    Lastly, rumor mill suggesting John Carlson might be available? Anyone hear anything more on this?

    I still hope Edm lands Barrie/ Carlson / Faulk type …

  9. jtblack says:

    jtblack,

    And I see your post on NHLe now, so apologies if some of my questions were redundant

  10. Ducey says:

    Surprised to see Vesel so high. He doesn’t get much love as a prospect in Oiler’s blogs.

    I guess he is a tad old, but he might have average size when he is done (5’11”, 190) and is a right shooter C.

    Pretty good pick in the 6th round.

  11. Gerta Rauss says:

    Off topic-a brief mention that Ladi Smid plans to play in the Czech Republic next year

    I was always a Smid fan and thought/assumed his career was over due to neck injuries-good for him

    There is a link embedded in the link below with details but you have to brush up on your Czech

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-Cordell/Vey-Smid-leaving-Flames-to-play-overseas/202/85347

    carry on

  12. russ99 says:

    I hope we take it slower with our prospects next year, we really need to start developing forwards that can fill in when we’re up against the cap, that’s how Chicago extended their cup run.

    I know some of these college signings require playing time promises, but I’d only do that for the very best, and as a potential 3rd liner, if we do land Foo, it may be best to give him AHL time to get used to the tougher pro game.

    I also don’t think it’s wise to pencil Puljujarvi onto McDavid’s line, we need measured moves for sustained success towards a cup, not to prop up players with more complete players so they look better, then set them up to fail when they’re away from that player.

  13. hunter1909 says:

    Nate780:
    hunter1909,

    So no Caggiulas or Atkinsons? those type of players don’t help?

    Are you out of your fucking mind?

    Seriously, Caggiula/Letestu were/are fantastic additions to the Oilers; Chiarelli is competent due every much as he is due to the emergence of Benning.

    It’s like no one saw these players coming.

    ps: who’s Atkinson?

  14. Nate780 says:

    hunter1909,

    I hope the “out of your mind” wasn’t directed at me, i agree with you.

    Cam Atkinson, i was just naming the first small, solid player that came to mind

  15. Bag of Pucks says:

    russ99:
    I hope we take it slower with our prospects next year, we really need to start developing forwards that can fill in when we’re up against the cap, that’s how Chicago extended their cup run.

    I know some of these college signings require playing time promises, but I’d only do that for the very best, and as a potential 3rd liner, if we do land Foo, it may be best to give him AHL time to get used to the tougher pro game.

    I also don’t think it’s wise to pencil Puljujarvi onto McDavid’s line, we need measured moves for sustained success towards a cup, not to prop up players with more complete players so they look better, then set them up to fail when they’re away from that player.

    Totally agree with this as best practice from a development pov. The one caveat I would add is Chia did confirm that JP lost a little confidence in his offensive game towards the end of the season. Would think nothing builds confidence quicker than playing alongside Connor for a brief spell. Not saying he should be penciled in there permanently, but possibly in the preseason, it might be a good way to kickstart his offensive production.

  16. Bag of Pucks says:

    In terms of trade targets, would it not be a good idea for Chia to be targeting D depth heavy squads that have to deal a starting D or two or risk losing them to Vegas? Particulalry if those clubs are light on offensive depth, it might be the best way to deal a player like Eberle for a decent RHD?

    Essentially you’re trading them a F they can protect for a D they can’t.

    Teams like Montreal, LA, Boston, St. Loo and Calgary come to mind here.

  17. barry.moore23 says:

    Does anyone happen to remember the name of the book that one of our LT friends recently published ?? It was something about behind the music scene (fiction). There was a link on here a couple of weeks ago. I’ll buy it if I can find it 🙂 Thanks.

  18. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    In terms of trade targets, would it not be a good idea for Chia to be targeting D depth heavy squads that have to deal a starting D or two or risk losing them to Vegas? Particulalry if those clubs are light on offensive depth, it might be the best way to deal a player like Eberle for a decent RHD?

    Essentially you’re trading them a F they can protect for a D they can’t.

    Teams like Montreal, LA, Boston, St. Loo and Calgary come to mind here.

    People keep suggesting this, but that would just put the Oilers in the same spot. They would have to protect 4 D, and then lose a F like Kassian or Letestu.

  19. unca miltie says:

    barry.moore23,

    The book is called Heathen by L.A Ferris. I bought the Kindle version from amazon but have not started to read it yet.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: People keep suggesting this, but that would just put the Oilers in the same spot. They would have to protect 4 D, and then lose a F like Kassian or Letestu.

    I’m fine with that. If the Oilers can acquire Josh Manson and lose Mark letestu because of it, or Zack Kassian, that’s still a solid decision.

  21. Nuclear leak says:

    One day, my imagination tells me it would be wonderful to see a post about received emails, the good, bad, and conspiracy filled! Would be sweet as a long time reader and full time snoop to see what sort of treats without naming names happen through the good old email lines. Got to be a way to let us peak through the window without giving away the essential root secrets.

  22. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: I’m fine with that. If the Oilers can acquire Josh Manson and lose Mark letestu because of it, or Zack Kassian, that’s still a solid decision.

    The Oilers could sign Russell to play 2nd pairing RHD.

    The difference between Manson and Russell is not worth Eberle and Kassian.

    You fix the RHD and then go “gee, we need some right wingers.”

  23. stevezie says:

    Lowetide: I’m fine with that. If the Oilers can acquire Josh Manson and lose Mark letestu because of it, or Zack Kassian, that’s still a solid decision.

    It all depends on the defenceman of course, but 100%.

    Every year there are good bottom six forwards available to sign. Top 4 Dmen are hard to come by. Kassian and Letestu are useful players, but let’s not for get that one of the key parts for being a great bottom sixer is not being good enough to play in the top 6.

  24. Doug McLachlan says:

    jtblack,

    I had no idea that Washington might be prepared to move Carlson.

    That’s very interesting.

    27 year-old quality RHD on a very cap-friendly sub-$4M one year cap hit.

    I’d be very interested were I the Oilers (or any of 29 other teams).

  25. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: The Oilers could sign Russell to play 2nd pairing RHD.

    The difference between Manson and Russell is not worth Eberle and Kassian.

    You fix the RHD and then go “gee, we need some right wingers.”

    Now we’re losing Eberle? That escalated quickly.

  26. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    LT:Have you read “The Undoing Project”? … Start of the book is all about projecting prospects in Basketball … but very interesting …

    Love this post.The numbers are incredible and help give a clearer picture of the pipeline …One idea I have (stealing from The Undoing Project) is that you should factor in Age when you throw in your League Adjustment.To give a .47 weighting to Khaira and Puljujarvi, even though Khaira is 4 years older, does not make sense … Either JP’s should be bumped as he was the youngest player in the AHL, or Khaira’s should be dropped slightly … Your modeling would suggest these two players have the same offensive NHLe, but I think we would all agree, that JP’s upsideand NHLe is much higher than Khaira’s.

    You mentioned Cagguila’s NHLe of 44.He scored 24 pts (pro rated over 82). Is the 44 supposed to be his NHL ceiling or was that the estimate for his rookie season?

    How is Foo’s skating?

    If Mantha can put up 20 points and play NHL D, we need him here tomorrow. At 6.5″ I feel like this player might jump all the RHD in the pipeline, including Bear.

    You mentioned how JP could score 50 if he has some chem and ice time with McD.I absolutely agree.As much credit as Connor did get, I think we are overlooking just how far his brush affected his teammates. Maroon and Leon certainly got a boost from regular minutes with 97.But if you look at 2 players that were horrendous 5 x 5 (Lucic & Letestu), they saved their seasons by feasting on Leftovers on McD’s PP …..I know they still had to cash and earned those goals … but you can attribute the Devastating PP#1 to Connor.Plain and Simple..

    Lastly, rumor mill suggesting John Carlson might be available?Anyone hear anything more on this?

    I still hope Edm lands Barrie/ Carlson / Faulk type …

    Ihave not read it but will track it down. Caggiula’s 44 NHLE was for his final college season.

  27. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    Manson would be Excellent. Guessing Ana moves Montour or someone else

  28. stevezie says:

    Ducey,

    I believe you are underselling the difference between Manson and Russell.

    I won’t get into the Russell debate, so let’s just all agree he’s a #4-6 D man. However, he is also 30 and is going to cost ~3 million. Maybe more.

    Manson is making $0.825 for one more year and will then be a 26 year old RFA.

    He’s also right handed, which is handy.

    If Russell comes back I hope it’s to play 3rd pairing lhD.

  29. stevezie says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Carlson would be absolutely ideal, which is almost the problem. I don’t know that we have the spare assets to trade for him, and then I don’t know that we’ll be able to sign him. I wonder if Nurse’s trade value is still out of whack with his real value? Although we suddenly need him a lot more than we once did…

    But definitely something that has to be explored. The GM is going to have to get ruthless and creative, trading good players we like because he can sign their replacement.

    At this point I think finding the right deal is more important than finding the right player.

  30. JDI says:

    Doug McLachlan: or any of 29 30 other teams)

    Fixed.

  31. hunter1909 says:

    Nate780:
    hunter1909,

    I hope the “out of your mind” wasn’t directed at me, i agree with you.

    Cam Atkinson, i was just naming the first small, solid player that came to mind

    1 – just making light of a comment. You weren’t targeted, ha ha.

    2 – Cam Atkinson might as well play in Siberia; since I never think much about non-Oiler players aside from Perry, Kesler and Getzlaf(all three who I’d take in a heartbeat for the Oilers).

  32. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide: I’m fine with that. If the Oilers can acquire Josh Manson and lose Mark letestu because of it, or Zack Kassian, that’s still a solid decision.

    For sure, you have to also factor age in. At this point any sound addition will cost something, but as we’ve seen if quality comes in the team can be better overall.

    In the past it was only quality going out and lots of us are gun shy, but to move ahead faster than the draft pool will allow trades and signings are necessary. If he wins more than he loses it’s golden.

  33. hunter1909 says:

    When I watched Perry Getzlaf and Kesler I was reminded of another century when I’d watch the Messier/Anderson line, and wonder what it must be like for rival fans to have to see their team destroyed by them.

    Messier and Anderson were far worse than all three Ducks combined.

    Anderson, he was just psycho.

  34. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: Now we’re losing Eberle? That escalated quickly.

    Yeah, Bag of Pucks was going to trade Eberle for a RHD. My comment was that we would then lose Kassian/ Letestu as well.

  35. New Improved Darkness says:

    I may break my arm, my leg, my neck, but I will not let that freaking guy go. … Help will come, help will be there.

    On confronting the mano a mano moment of truth against Gordie “Jethro” Jetski.

    Lomu stands 6’5″ tall and weighed between 270 to 280 pounds during his playing career. While this might sound like he’s all brawn with no speed, the man ran a 100-metre sprint in 10.8 seconds in high school.

    When the Dallas Cowboys were looking into bringing him to the NFL, his predicted 40-yard dash time was just under 4.5.

    If that is not enough, he had a lethal combination of speed, leg drive, upper body strength and agility in and out of cuts.

    Just imagine tackling a 6’5″, 265-lb (per Wikipedia) edition of Connor McJetski.

    ———

    Photoshoppers start your engines.

    We need to gulag the 3 × 300 Evinrudes—and crop in a recumbent Connor McDavid drag-lining all the pyramids of Giza (by the brace, if not the braces)—in time to break Twitter after obstructive coronary SCSF 2017–2018.

    I can almost taste the bitterness already on one side of my mouth (bilateral stroke sold separately).

    And it surely won’t help having to endure the sad sack-race Kings roped into burly throwback Burger Kings.*

    ———

    [*] Did I mention the bottomless epileptic refill?

    ———

    Bonus points for Clark Gillies. No bonus points for Mr Hockey (who, equipped with the right 23rd-century eye visor, might still be playing).

    Edit: the Evinrudes are in frame at the 8s mark, backdropped by some really boring bridge. Actually, it was a different clip sporting the Evinrudes, but they look and sound meaner.

  36. Ducey says:

    stevezie:
    Ducey,

    I believe you are underselling the difference between Manson and Russell.

    I won’t get into the Russell debate, so let’s just all agree he’s a #4-6 D man. However, he is also 30 and is going to cost ~3 million. Maybe more.

    Manson is making $0.825 for one more year and will then be a 26 year old RFA.

    He’s also right handed, which is handy.

    If Russell comes back I hope it’s to play 3rd pairing lhD.

    I think there is a difference. I would love to have Manson (or another young RHD hotshot) but giving up both Eberle and Kassian for the difference just means that the Oilers have a big hole in their offense.

    People underrate Eberle a lot too. He is a 51 pt RW in a down year. There a very few replacements for that.

    I’d rather have Russell for 2 yrs (and then have Benning/ Bear/ Mantha take over his role) plus Eberle plus Kassian.

    In this scenario, all the Oilers lose is Kharia or Reinhart.

  37. Bag of Pucks says:

    unca miltie:
    barry.moore23,

    The book is called Heathen by L.A Ferris. I bought the Kindle version from amazon but have not started to read it yet.

    Barry, thanks for your interest in the book AND uncamiltie thanks for trying the book and passing on these deets. Much appreciated!

    Quick FYI for those who are interested. The book is currently on a 90 day exclusive with Amazon (hence why on Kindle only for e-books), but as of June, it will be available on all e-book formats.

    LT, sorry for the spam! Happy to return everyone to their regularly scheduled programming now : )

  38. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: Barry, thanks for your interest in the book AND uncamiltie thanks for trying the book and passing on these deets. Much appreciated!

    Quick FYI for those who are interested. The book is currently on a 90 day exclusive with Amazon (hence why on Kindle only for e-books), but as of June, it will be available on all e-book formats.

    LT, sorry for the spam! Happy to return everyone to their regularly scheduled programming now : )

    Never worry! This isn’t spam!

  39. stevezie says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Colour me impressed. Well done.

  40. Bag of Pucks says:

    stevezie:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Colour me impressed. Well done.

    Thank you : )

  41. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: I’m fine with that. If the Oilers can acquire Josh Manson and lose Mark letestu because of it, or Zack Kassian, that’s still a solid decision.

    That’s the way I was looking at it as well. Basically, with this expansion draft, we could have market conditions forcing teams to put some nice D in play that they normally wouldn’t.

    Granted, you lose W depth to build the D depth, but I would think under the mantra of ‘build down the middle’ that’s a trade-off that Chia would normally accept.

  42. Scungilli Slushy says:

    hunter1909:
    When I watched Perry Getzlaf and Kesler I was reminded of another century when I’d watch the Messier/Anderson line, and wonder what it must be like for rival fans to have to see their team destroyed by them.

    Messier and Anderson were far worse than all three Ducks combined.

    Anderson, he was just psycho.

    Truth, but that was 30 years ago when there were psychos a plenty. They were hated. It’s mostly allegedly different now which is why I called them dinosaurs. At this point hacks are degrading the quality of the game because so many players can play.

  43. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Truth, but that was 30 years ago when there were psychos a plenty. They were hated. It’s mostly allegedly different now which is why I called them dinosaurs. At this point hacks are degrading the quality of the game because so many players can play.

    Impossible to agree with so many variant points.

    What I did take from the 2016-17 season including playoffs is, Lucic Maroon and Kassian protected the Letestus of the team; unlike previous Taylor Hall core seasons of abject injuries, the team always being close to the top of the NHL in man games lost from them getting the daylights pounded out of them on a routine basis. Anyone who has played contact anything usually understands the dynamic between hitting and being hit. Either that or they’re on IR themselves, lol.

  44. jtblack says:

    Corey Perry. 4 more years @ $8.6 Mil/per.

    That is all.

  45. jtblack says:

    Tyler Benson: 34 Goals TOTAL in 3 WHL seasons. Yes they were all partial seasons, but that is still in 125 Games. Add on his major injury concerns and tack on that his wheels are considered below average and I don’t see this player ever being a Top 6 NHL.

    Step 1 is Health. If Benson can actually play 2 full seasons, then maybe we can get a better gage on this player. The Oilers took a risk based on his history or being injured and it looks like the risk has back fired.

  46. Scungilli Slushy says:

    hunter1909: Impossible to agree with so many variant points.

    What I did take from the 2016-17 season including playoffs is, Lucic Maroon and Kassian protected the Letestus of the team; unlike previous Taylor Hall core seasons of abject injuries, the team always being close to the top of the NHL in man games lost from them getting the daylights pounded out of them on a routine basis. Anyone who has played contact anything usually understands the dynamic between hitting and being hit. Either that or they’re on IR themselves, lol.

    Sorry, Mess and Anderson were hated elsewhere I think, and their play reflected that time, plus some extra agro. But there was a lot of that back then. Now most of the head hunters are out of the game. And prize fighters.

    The Ducks are dinosaurs, mugging and injuring players with hits that weren’t often clean, good solid hockey collisions IMO.

    At this point the dirty play is taking away from the game more than it ever has. There is just no need for it with so many good players throughout rosters, in the concussion law suit era.

    Just my .02

  47. jtblack says:

    hunter1909,

    This is one of those things you cannot measure. If you are a skill player and you have a certain level of comfort that if things get Rowdy, you have a supporting cast that will back you and actually is good at it, that makes a Huge difference. You can just focus on playing the game; See Oilers vs. Brandon Manning.

    The pre PC Oilers had nothing for team toughness, size in the Top 6. That definitely hurt the progress of RNH and Hall, etc …. Dancers need protection. Scorers need Bangers … You can’t go to war with Jet Planes only, you need some tanks. The Oilers now have some Tanks. I throw Larsson in this group too, he’s not a fighter but he plays a heavy game, is nasty in the corners and adds to team toughness.

  48. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: At this point the dirty play is taking away from the game more than it ever has. There is just no need for it with so many good players throughout rosters, in the concussion law suit era.

    This, however admirable reads like fiction. The Oilers in reality just got their asses handed to them by a veteran Ducks team that I think will teach them many of the essential lessons necessary to make the final 4 next season. Whether anyone likes it or not, the Ducks exist in the Pacific Division and will be returning next season.

  49. hunter1909 says:

    jtblack:
    hunter1909,

    This is one of those things you cannot measure.If you are a skill player and you have a certain level of comfort that if things get Rowdy, you have a supporting cast that will back you and actually is good at it, that makes a Huge difference.You can just focus on playing the game; See Oilers vs. Brandon Manning.

    The pre PC Oilers had nothing for team toughness, size in the Top 6.That definitely hurt the progress of RNH and Hall, etc ….Dancers need protection.Scorers need Bangers … You can’t go to war with Jet Planes only, you need some tanks. The Oilers now have some Tanks.I throw Larsson in this group too, he’s not a fighter but he plays a heavy game, is nasty in the corners and adds to team toughness.

    Great post.

  50. hunter1909 says:

    jtblack:
    Corey Perry.4 more years @ $8.6 Mil/per.

    That is all.

    Is it possible to subtract any of the Kevin Lowe blackmail money?

  51. Professor Q says:

    hunter1909: This, however admirable reads like fiction. The Oilers in reality just got their asses handed to them by a veteran Ducks team that I think will teach them many of the essential lessons necessary to make the final 4 next season. Whether anyone likes it or not, the Ducks exist in the Pacific Division and will be returning next season.

    This is quite facetious.

    Game 6, anyone?

  52. Professor Q says:

    jtblack:
    Tyler Benson:34 Goals TOTAL in 3 WHL seasons.Yes they were all partial seasons, but that is still in 125 Games.Add on his major injury concerns and tack on that his wheels are considered below average and I don’t see this player ever being a Top 6 NHL.

    Step 1 is Health.If Benson can actually play 2 full seasons, then maybe we can get a better gage on this player.The Oilers took a risk based on his history or being injured and it looks like the risk has back fired.

    I know. Raddysh and DeBrincat…damn.

    Maybe if they had asked McDavid’s opinion on them?

  53. jtblack says:

    Professor Q,

    I followed Benson closely since his 16 yr old season. Major potential. He still may be a player, who knows, but the arrows are getting worrisome. Average skater who has severe groin issues. Which tells me it will be challenging for him to become an NHL Level skater.

    fingers crossed.

  54. godot10 says:

    hunter1909: This, however admirable reads like fiction. The Oilers in reality just got their asses handed to them by a veteran Ducks team that I think will teach them many of the essential lessons necessary to make the final 4 next season. Whether anyone likes it or not, the Ducks exist in the Pacific Division and will be returning next season.

    And the Ducks may be returning with Sam Steel and Jonathan Drouin** added to their forward group.

    **or rough equivalent of Drouin (whoever they trade Vatanen for). Drouin, van Reimsdyk, Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyquist, Evander Kane, Cody Eakin

  55. Diablo says:

    jtblack:
    Tyler Benson:34 Goals TOTAL in 3 WHL seasons.Yes they were all partial seasons, but that is still in 125 Games.Add on his major injury concerns and tack on that his wheels are considered below average and I don’t see this player ever being a Top 6 NHL.

    Step 1 is Health.If Benson can actually play 2 full seasons, then maybe we can get a better gage on this player.The Oilers took a risk based on his history or being injured and it looks like the risk has back fired.

    Pretty much everything from the 2nd round on is a risk. The wannabe GMs around here will tell you otherwise of course – easy to sit behind your keyboard and criticize when those guys will never have their faux-draft record scrutinized by a rabid fan base like ours.

    I can understand why they took a risk – if he panned out, they could have gotten a top 10 talent with a pick in the 30’s. They went safe with the first round pick and then went for a home run with the second round pick. Beats picking Moroz in the 2nd round at least.

    Perhaps not having a 2nd this year is a good thing – historically, a player drafted by the Oilers in the 2nd round has almost always crashed and burned ;-p

  56. --hudson-- says:

    jtblack:
    Love this post.The numbers are incredible and help give a clearer picture of the pipeline …One idea I have (stealing from The Undoing Project) is that you should factor in Age when you throw in your League Adjustment.To give a .47 weighting to Khaira and Puljujarvi, even though Khaira is 4 years older, does not make sense … Either JP’s should be bumped as he was the youngest player in the AHL, or Khaira’s should be dropped slightly … Your modeling would suggest these two players have the same offensive NHLe, but I think we would all agree, that JP’s upsideand NHLe is much higher than Khaira’s.

    This work is probably over 10 years old, but Gabriel Desjardins showed some curves for production by player age with a few caveats. Have a look at page 2 here:
    http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/League_Equivalencies.pdf

    And more information here:
    http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

    I haven’t seen any updates but I have used those numbers for years in my keeper pool (although I never win). I always try to draft players based on their projected offense when they are 23 years old and assume they don’t break out beyond that age (the odd time I get burned but find a lot of gems).

    The last few years, I just copy LT’s list since he does a great job in sorting the players. (Thanks, LT!)

  57. who says:

    Ducey: The Oilers could sign Russell to play 2nd pairing RHD.

    The difference between Manson and Russell is not worth Eberle and Kassian.

    You fix the RHD and then go “gee, we need some right wingers.”

    Don’t agree. If there was no expansion I trade Eberle and Kassian all day long for Manson. And I like Kassian. But he is replaceable.

  58. hunter1909 says:

    Professor Q: This is quite facetious.

    Game 6, anyone?

    No problem! Take your pick!

    2006 vs the Canes, or 2017 vs the Ducks: both times Oilers failed to win game 7.

    Like President DJ Trump, I like teams that win game 7’s.

  59. godot10 says:

    If the Oilers can shake loose a legit #2RD (on a reasonable contract) like Manson or Faulk, one goes 4-4-1 in the expansion and not worry about it.

    Wingers don’t matter. See Ovechkin. Hall.

    A goaltender, 4 legit D, and two #1 quality centres, and one is cooking.

  60. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: And the Ducks may be returning with Sam Steel and Jonathan Drouin** added to their forward group.

    **or rough equivalent of Drouin (whoever they trade Vatanen for).Drouin, van Reimsdyk, Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyquist, Evander Kane, Cody Eakin

    If this Sam Steele’s anything like the 19th century mountie, the Ducks will have a gem.

    I get it. It’s still going to be the Pacific Division, no matter how much anyone wants world peace.

  61. Ducey says:

    Diablo:

    Perhaps not having a 2nd this year is a good thing – historically, a player drafted by the Oilers in the 2nd round has almost always crashed and burned ;-p

    I thought I would look.

    The best players ever taken by the Oilers in the 2nd:
    1987 Brad Werenka 320 NHL games (42 of them with the Oilers)
    1993 David Vyborny 543 games 317 points (none for the Oilers)
    1995 Big Georges 695 games
    2000 Brad Winchester 390 games (78 for the Oilers)
    2002 Jarret Stoll 872 games, Matt Greene 615 games
    2006 Jeff Petry

    They got 4 players that contributed to the team in a meaningful way.

    Pretty slim pickins.

  62. Doug McLachlan says:

    JDI,

    31 teams minus the Oilers and Washington leaves us with 29 but we both get the point – everyone would want to be in on this.

  63. jtblack says:

    Diablo,

    I do agree with your reasoning, that is what they tried to do … Not getting a decent player in Round 2 has everything to do with Scouting .. There may only be a 20%(?) chance of landing an NHL player from Round 2, but if you look between 2008 and 2013 You will always find a handful every year, some impact players …

    Hopefully the Scouting does a better job of finding talent in rounds 2 & 3 going forward.

  64. Scungilli Slushy says:

    hunter1909: This, however admirable reads like fiction. The Oilers in reality just got their asses handed to them by a veteran Ducks team that I think will teach them many of the essential lessons necessary to make the final 4 next season. Whether anyone likes it or not, the Ducks exist in the Pacific Division and will be returning next season.

    You’re in a feisty mood today. The only fiction is in what you took from what I didn’t say. Nobody was happier than me watching Lucic standing in Getzlaf’s face and Getzlaf having to have respect for the pushback and also not wanting a piece of that. Kassian as well, he is also not to be trifled with no matter who he’s crazy eyeing.

  65. stevezie says:

    godot10: Wingers don’t matter. See Ovechkin. Hall.

    Howe, Richard, Lindsay, Zetterberg, Iginla, St Louis, Hossa, Perry, Forsberg (the new one)…

  66. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: You’re in a feisty mood today. The only fiction is in what you took from what I didn’t say. Nobody was happier than me watching Lucic standing in Getzlaf’s face and Getzlaf having to have respect for the pushback and also not wanting a piece of that. Kassian as well, he is also not to be trifled with no matter who he’s crazy eyeing.

    Glad to hear it.

    It’s the Irish in me. Causes me all kinds of trouble.

    Lucic, even Lowetide has to agree on any given night has turned out to be as close to Lucic as Lowe+MacT dreamed over 15 freaking drafts in a row, until horseshoes kicked both of them out of the discussion.

    It’s Lucic talking to the opposition defence, and nobody says a word back.

    Poor Eberle. He’s finished as an Oiler and without a single playoff goal that’s crazy. I hope Calgary end up with him, and Hall might as well join the Flames too lol.

  67. Professor Q says:

    hunter1909: No problem! Take your pick!

    2006 vs the Canes, or 2017 vs the Ducks: both times Oilers failed to win game 7.

    Like President DJ Trump, I like teams that win game 7’s.

    Yes, but you’re missing the point. Your statement implied that the Oilers were taken out to pasture. They were not.

    They had points of dominating the Ducks, and points of being dominated.

    Yes, moreso the latter than the former, but even so they STILL brought it to Game 7.

    And that’s without mentioning the officiating.

  68. Professor Q says:

    godot10: And the Ducks may be returning with Sam Steel and Jonathan Drouin** added to their forward group.

    **or rough equivalent of Drouin (whoever they trade Vatanen for).Drouin, van Reimsdyk, Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyquist, Evander Kane, Cody Eakin

    And Max Jones… 😐

    Fits perfectly with their group. A bigger Tkachuk.

  69. hunter1909 says:

    Professor Q: Yes, but you’re missing the point. Your statement implied that the Oilers were taken out to pasture. They were not.
    They had points of dominating the Ducks, and points of being dominated.

    I agree with this 100%. What exactly am I missing?

  70. hunter1909 says:

    Professor Q,

    I’m sure we can agree it was a great series.

    I trust Chiarelli to figure out what to do in order to win the cup as soon as next time around. McDavid’s that good, lol.

  71. rickithebear says:

    LT: the spike potential is best identified in the youngest drafted players.

    Volman,s accelerator was already built into desjardins curves.

    I will never give credit to the wrong individual!

    Desjardins accelorator!

    Desjardins equvalency curves.
    Desjardins NHLE
    Desjardins comp- team- zone start data.

    My Mean and range for any given desjardins column based on a players
    1244 groups of comp- team- zone start situational play.
    Which none of you could get.

    Until Volman bastardized it with 2 axis and a bubble.

    To count out any of the 3 axis assumes that it holds a constant position in the other 2 axis and has no slope and is linear.

    I have run these and all 3 variables have change and affect!
    A large portion of corsi variance sits at FO zone start.

    Alot more corsi variance as it the feet of offensive pocession failure from forwards and off d.

    But i greatly apreciate your forum that has allowed me to express my theories. And seek employment in the industry. Which pays utter shit!

    I may soon be pursuing another avenue presented to me for my theories.

    As for now Lt: please continue to do your work and be that calming voice in this avenue of discorce.

    Talbot – Mact 😇

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