FRENZY!

I talked to Frank Seravalli yesterday on the Lowdown and he said (basically) this summer is going to be wild on trades! While we discuss big names (Nuge, Eberle) in Edmonton, even more impact players could be available in other cities. Stand back! We don’t know how big this is going to get!

For the Oilers, the dizzying pace of 2015 and 2016 should be followed by smaller (but equally important) moves. Let’s review Chiarelli’s needs list each summer and how he addressed them.

CHIARELLI LIST 2015

  1. Draft McDavid (check)
  2. Find a quality goalie option (his answer was Cam Talbot)
  3. Acquire a legit top pairing blue (Andrej Sekera)
  4. Sign a more offensive two-way F (Lauri Korpikoski)
  5. Ignore MacT re: Marincin (dealt for No. 107 overall)

Chiarelli made other moves, mostly surrounding attempts to shore up the defense (Griffin Reinhart, Eric Gryba), but this group of five moves represented what I  thought was the needs list. One of the things this shows? Difficult to address five things in a summer and have success in all five moves. McDavid was a no-brainer, but Talbot and Sekera were both astute and very productive transactions.

CHIARELLI LIST 2016

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (his answer was Larsson)
  2. Second-pairing RHD to partner with Sekera (Kris Russell)
  3. Acquire RHC with some skill (Jesse Puljujarvi)
  4. Backup goalie (Jonas Gustavsson)
  5. Rob the Bruins of something (Matt Benning)
  6. Source

Chiarelli pulled the trigger on a painful trade June 29, 2016 and covered off the first item in doing it. Russell’s hiring came very late (and we may see that again this summer) and arrived partly because Griffin Reinhart was unable to grab and NHL job. Puljujarvi isn’t a RHC but does set up a righty inside the top 6F for years to come. The backup goalie choice is akin to the Korpikoski item one year previous: It was a clunker.

CHIARELLI LIST 2017

  1. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen.
  2. Find a forward who can help the offense.
  3. Offload Benoit Pouliot.
  4. Source

At this point the most likely items are (in order) Kris Russell, Ryan Strome and buyout, but I think Chiarelli will be a little more dynamic. One thing that we should watch out for? Some of these Benning-Caggiula moves. Spencer Foo might address the No. 2 need here and not require assets out to do it. I believe this year’s transactions are going to be far more subtle than the Talbot and Larsson deals. That doesn’t mean the club won’t trade a Steve Austin, only that it won’t be as shocking as one year ago.

This is a good list to keep track of, sometimes a good player emerges and signed with your team. Last season’s list included Ryan Mantha, who has since been signed by the Oilers. Jaedon Descheneau was also on the list. Here goes (just the notables).

  • No. 98 L Samuel Dove-McFalls, Philadelphia Flyers. Big winger had a productive junior career for Saint John Sea Dogs. I bet he signs before the deadline.
  • No. 116 RC Glenn Gawdin, St. Louis Blues. Solid two-way forward whose offense progressed during his junior career (but did not spike). Bet the Oilers like him.
  • No. 125 R Saku Maenalanen, Nashville Predators. Bigger winger (6.03, 205) who plays in a pro league and puts up good boxcars (34gp, 11-10-21, Sm-Liiga). He is 22, has a rep for being good in possession and along the wall.
  • No. 131 RC Matt Bradley, Montreal Canadiens. Blossomed offensively in the years after the draft. Has a gritty style despite size (5.11, 187) and I suspect he’ll get a pro contract somewhere in the next 12 months.
  • No. 144 RD Carl Neill, Vancouver Canucks. He has good to great boxcars through his junior career and is 6.01, 201. Reasons for not signing him might include foot speed and too much chaos in coverage, and I have read those things about him.
  • No. 152 overall RC Giorgio Estephan, Buffalo Sabres. Skill center who scored 89 points with Lethbridge last year. He could be on Edmonton’s list (or Bakersfield’s).
  • No. 155 overall LD Stephen Desrocher, Toronto Maple Leafs. Two-way defender with size (6.04, 198), unlikely to bring much offense with him.
  • No. 164 overall R Roy Radke, Chicago Blackhawks. 6.02 power winger scored well (19, 23) in his final seasons in the OHL.
  • No. 180 L Bokondji Imama, Tampa Bay Lightning. Spiked this season (41 goals) and my bet is the Lightning (who have an eye for innovative offense) sign him.
  • No. 185 R Nikita Korostelev, Toronto Maple Leafs. A creative winger who has average size (6.01, 201) and good speed. He’s good enough to sign based on scouting report and resume, wonder if his playoff run with the Petes helped his cause.
  • No. 203 overall G Janne Juvonen, Nashville Predators. When a goalie gets picked by the Predators, pay attention. Number in Sm-Liiga good not great.
  • No. 203 overall, C-L Matteo Gennaro, Winnipeg Jets. Weird to see a former classmate of one of my kids on this list, even weirder to see him unsigned. Massive spike this past season (69gp, 43-37-80) but his resume suggests a pretty solid two-way player.
  • No. 208 overall G Miroslav Svoboda, Edmonton Oilers. I have enjoyed tracking his numbers, he is so dominant in his Czech league. It’s probably like Kramer vs. kids at karate but it was a nice dream.
  • No. 210 overall LD Tate Olson, Vancouver Canucks. Big defender started his draft year as a highly rated player, then plummeted. I thought it was an astute pick by the Canucks and Olson did in fact post two good draft+1 seasons. I think an organization like Vancouver might be addled enough to let actual value slip through their fingers. It will be interesting to follow Olson’s career path from here.

HEY SERGEI!

According to this article, the Oilers are interested in Russian forward Sergei Andronov. I think that’s it, or he may come from the same town as Anton Slepyshev. Google translate has a sense of humor, that I can state as actual fact. Andronov is 6.02, 212 and plays center or wing (while being lefthanded). He went 51gp, 6-4-10 in the KHL last year (NHLE: 12) and would be a reasonable replacement for Jere Sallinen (AHL center) based on what we know. He is a good skater and has some skill.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we drive toward the weekend with two hours of Lowdown on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. Ottawa Senators did a nation proud but it’s Sid versus the Volcano in the SCF.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Should the Oilers slow play this summer, keeping the Steve Austins and waiting for deadline madness?
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Oilers offseason: Which way should they go?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

60 Responses to "FRENZY!"

  1. SumOil says:

    4. Arsenal

    Sorry had to do it :p

  2. jtblack says:

    Just commented on the last post, can’t keep up to LT.

    I hope there is lots of action, as opposed to just hype (trade deadline). I do believe this is different as some teams are pretty much forced to make trades of decent players. Hope PC has his game face on!

    I am familiar with Estephan. He would probably be useful in AHL. I don’t see him making NHL, as his game is pretty one dimensional. He has great skill, especially stickhandling. But his acceleration and skating would be questionable. He did have an excellent WHL playoff where he put up 24 Points in 18 Gms (7th in League).

    Can’t wait for the next month to unfold!

  3. TO10801 says:

    Watched Estephan in a game in Saskatoon this year. You would like his numbers to be far better based on the game he plays. He is not a two way type and is not a great skater based on what I saw, but he is very skilled. IMO we have that covered with Descheneau, but you can never have enough skill especially when you need cheap, inexpensive wingers for the future. It was only one game against an average team so definitely a small sample, but would be an interesting signing.

  4. TO10801 says:

    jtblack,

    Beat me to it, but I agree. Great with the puck but doesn’t do much else.

  5. Lowetide says:

    TO10801:
    Watched Estephan in a game in Saskatoon this year. You would like his numbers to be far better based on the game he plays. He is not a two way type and is not a great skater based on what I saw, but he is very skilled. IMO we have that covered with Descheneau, but you can never have enough skill especially when you need cheap, inexpensive wingers for the future. It was only one game against an average team so definitely a small sample, but would be an interesting signing.

    I don’t think Descheneau has been signed for next season.

  6. TO10801 says:

    Lowetide,

    Oh okay I thought I had seen he signed an AHL deal for next year again, might have confused him with someone else though. With or without Descheneau, Estephan could be interesting on an AHL deal because the oilers need guys with some offense

  7. Moose says:

    Andronov seems interesting in that he’s already played in North America and his 2nd season in the AHL wasn’t too bad numbers-wise. That said, if he’s already bolted once to go back to the KHL I doubt he wants to come back to play in Bakersfield.

    If he can skate and take draws, I wonder if they see him as a 4C (13/14th F). Anything that takes 5v5 minutes away from Letestu is a plus in my book. He looked done to me as a reliable contributor in that arena. I can see the cliff from here.

  8. jtblack says:

    TO10801,

    Estephan is a RHC … so maybe that is attractive as we know how hard they are to find at any level … Hes decent, but the AHL is littered with guys who tore up junior, but don’t have the wheels to get to the next level .. I have no problem if they sign him and see what he can do in AHL … Good character, Good Player ..

  9. jtblack says:

    Hoffman and Stone were 5th and 6th rounders … When is the last time the Oilers had any kind of draft day steal like that?

  10. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! Who knows about this off season, but there will be some big winners and losers I suspect. In Chia we believe. We are in good shape finally though, because we are talking about trading under-performing actual NHL players for more suitable/cost-effective NHL players.

    – I’ll keep posting this untill I don’t get responses, its the “2017 Arm-Chair Prognosticate contest”. Deadline is Vegas Draft (or earlier if there is a big trade that breaks!)

    – Winner gets a Lowetide pal-pay contribution and respect: Please answer the following:

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
    9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
    10) Biggest off-season F acquired in terms of salary?:
    11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1?
    12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

    Use this format so I can cut and paste:

    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12

  11. dustrock says:

    LT doing the Lord’s work here, digging down deep. Wish our MSM could hit the same level.

    This is investigative sports reporting at its finest. 😀

  12. Professor Q says:

    jtblack:
    Hoffman and Stone were 5th and 6th rounders … When is the last time the Oilers had any kind of draft day steal like that?

    In recent years there have been a few, I think. Could hopefully be more with the new regime.

    Although I do like our trend of college and University players!

  13. Oddspell says:

    The google translation of the Andronov article seems more about the hometown connection between Adronov and Slepyshev than about Oilers interest. Maybe there’s an implication behind that connection that’s lost in the “translation”.

  14. Professor Q says:

    Mr. Lowetide: I know it’s going to be, as you say, a frenzy from Stanley Cup to Free Agency Day 3 probably, so are there any plans to have weekend radio coverage with yourself involved?

    I know you’ll have lots to cover during week days as well as here, and also have a family and deserve many breaks, but I was just curious. Usually have to catch shows later on on Soundcloud.

  15. ironsight says:

    Re Andronov – Although that article says that Andronov has received offers from three NHL teams, his NHL rights do remain with St. Louis, so they would have the right of first refusal on him if he were to return. Nearly all of his KHL offense has come 5v5 and he has been deployed primarily as a 3C and faceoff specialist. He played a more feature role at the recent WHC (10 GP, 3-2-5, all ES) where he was an assistant captain and centred a line with Ivan Telegin and Valeri Nichuskin.

  16. Professor Q says:

    ironsight,

    Would this be a similar situation to Kovalchuk’s rights, even if not Voluntary Retirement? Sign and Trade or Offer Sheet?

  17. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q:
    Mr. Lowetide: I know it’s going to be, as you say, a frenzy from Stanley Cup to Free Agency Day 3 probably, so are there any plans to have weekend radio coverage with yourself involved?

    I know you’ll have lots to cover during week days as well as here, and also have a family and deserve many breaks, but I was just curious. Usually have to catch shows later on on Soundcloud.

    We have plans forthe Saturday (July 1), I’ll be on noon to 4pm. Not certain about Sunday and of course we’re all over the weekdays.

  18. russ99 says:

    Here’s my list based on Chia’s presser:

    1. Find a way to make our D more like the Ducks, and weather the loss of Sekera and possibly Russell without backsliding.

    2. Find a shooter who can help offense, regardless if McDavid and Draisaitl are together or not.

    3. Find ways to reduce cap before Connor and Leon’s extensions kick in (Pouliot, Fayne, Ebs/RNH)

    4. Find some way to get better faceoff results (hire someone like Oates, specific offseason training program, player acquisition)

  19. TO10801 says:

    ironsight,

    Not 100% sure, but according to Capfriendly he signed a 1yr entry level deal in 2013-2014. I could be wrong but wouldn’t STL have needed to qualify him each year since then to retain his rights?

  20. ironsight says:

    Professor Q,

    This would be more similar to Sobotka’s situation where he left as an RFA meaning the Blues still have protection rights. Of course, as an RFA, any team could make him an offer, but the Blues would have the right of first refusal on that same offer.

  21. Ducey says:

    Of the CHL types on the list, three are of most interest based on the boxcars,

    Gawdin 52 26 33 59 80 PIM – pretty consistent over three years
    Bradley 70 34 43 77 85 PIM – just one year spike
    Gennaro 69 43 37 80 65 PIM – again just the one year spike

    Need to understand why these guys spiked. If all PP based then it may not translate to the pros. But if they can skate, might be worth a shot.

  22. TO10801 says:

    ironsight,

    Difference was that SObotka had gone to arbitration and was given a contract of 1yr@2.725M. So he walked out while still under contract. That did not happen with Andronov from what I can see.

  23. OF17 says:

    ironsight:
    Professor Q,

    This would be more similar to Sobotka’s situation where he left as an RFA meaning the Blues still have protection rights. Of course, as an RFA, any team could make him an offer, but the Blues would have the right of first refusal on that same offer.

    Speaking of Sobotka, I’d love to add him. Saw him most recently at a game against the Swiss in the Worlds, and the only thing he’s missing from our ideal C is he’s LH. But he plays that versatile, gritty game that complements other styles and can be effective in multiple ways. He could play LW with Nuge, C with kids, C with vets, special teams. He’d be fantastic.

  24. jtblack says:

    I just found your pennant post very interesting: Here is the Pennants post 1990:

    Montreal (1): ’93
    Boston (3):’90, ’11, ’13
    Philadelphia (2): ’97, ’10
    Edmonton (2) ’90, ’06
    Pittsburgh (6): ’91, ’92, ’08, ’09, ’16, ’17
    Chicago (4)’92, ’10, ’13, ’15
    Detroit (6): ’95, ’97, ’98, ’02, ’08, ’09
    New Jersey (5): ’95, ’00, ’01, ’03, ’12
    New York Islanders
    New York Rangers (2): 94, ’14
    Dallas (3)’91, ’99, ’00
    Los Angeles (3): ’93, ’12, ’14
    Calgary (1): ’04
    St. Louis
    Vancouver (2) ’94, ’11
    Tampa Bay (2): ’04, ’15
    Anaheim (2): ’03, ’07
    Buffalo (1)’99
    Carolina (2): ’02, ’06
    Colorado (2): ’96, ’01
    Nashville (1): ’17
    San Jose (1): ’16
    Florida (1): ’96
    Ottawa (1): ’07
    Washington (1): ’98
    Atlanta-Winnipeg
    Columbus
    Minnesota
    Phoenix
    Toront

    In the Last 27 years, only 4 teams have more than 3 pennnants. That is why it should be considered a Huge accomplishment, one that is celebrated more and recognized as more significant.

  25. Pink Socks says:

    jtblack:
    Hoffman and Stone were 5th and 6th rounders … When is the last time the Oilers had any kind of draft day steal like that?

    Been a long time. Paigin (fingers crossed) could be one. Past that, Reider in 2011 and then Brodziak in 2003, but no real home runs.

  26. dessert1111 says:

    If they sign Svoboda and he stays overseas, does he still take up room on the 50 man? He’s getting an opportunity in a decent Euro league next year so I see how that would be better for his development (and career) than the ECHL, but it would a shame to lose him after he’s put together pretty impressive post draft seasons. It looks like he’s done everything possible to become a player of interest.

  27. slopitch says:

    Use this format so I can cut and paste:
    1 Reinhart
    2 Traded
    3 Yes. Ebs + 22nd for Duchene
    4 No
    5 Brosoit
    6 0 – oilers pass on Russell
    7 11.5*8=92
    8 6.75*8=54
    9 Gryba, Kulikov
    10 4.25 Hanzal
    11 No
    12 3

    Its summer. The glass is half full baby!

  28. Ribs says:

    Dove-McFalls? That is a really terrible hockey name.

  29. P2theickles1 says:

    1) Khaira
    2) Unure but likely a F
    3) Yes. For a RHD (NYI, Col, Car)
    4) No
    5) Brossoit
    6) 4 mil for 1 year (Dont want to see this happen tho, aim higher)
    7) 9.7 Mil for 8 years
    8) 7 Mil for 8 years
    9) Russel and a new dman aquired via FA or trade
    10) Large Center – either Hanzal or Boyle or a trade for someone not on the radar
    11) Yes
    12) 3 (Ebs, Pouliot and with LV)

  30. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ribs:
    Dove-McFalls? That is a really terrible hockey name.

    Ha, didn’t notice that. A big winger to boot, can’t imagine the guff he takes!

  31. OmJo says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!Who knows about this off season, but there will be some big winners and losers I suspect.In Chia we believe.We are in good shape finally though, because we are talking about trading under-performing actual NHL players for more suitable/cost-effective NHL players.

    – I’ll keep posting this untill I don’t get responses, its the “2017 Arm-Chair Prognosticate contest”.Deadline is Vegas Draft (or earlier if there is a big trade that breaks!)

    – Winner gets a Lowetide pal-pay contribution and respect: Please answer the following:

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
    9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
    10) Biggest off-season F acquired in terms of salary?:
    11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1?
    12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

    Use this format so I can cut and paste:

    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12

    1. Khaira.
    2. Kole Lind.
    3. Yes, for the rights to Kovalchuk (sign him $6.0M x 2 years).
    4. No.
    5. Brossoit.
    6. 0. Please.
    7. $9.7M x 8 years.
    8. $6.0M x 6 years.
    9. Fayne and Reinhart. No, I’m not on drugs.
    10. Kovalchuk via trade.
    11. Yes.
    12. 2.

  32. anjinsan says:

    For 2015 you missed an important item —
    Take advantage of the fabulously deep draft! He blew it here.

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    Hoffman and Stone were 5th and 6th rounders … When is the last time the Oilers had any kind of draft day steal like that?

    Jason Chimera
    Sean Horcoff
    Kyle Borziack
    Chris VandeVelde
    Brandon Davidson
    Tobias Reider

  34. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Aside from Horcoff we either gave the rest away or let them go before they could bring any impact to the roster.

  35. Jaxon says:

    I wouldn’t expect much from Andronov. His 24 year old (draft+7) season in the AHL worked out to an NHLE of under 19 pts. There’s not enough offense there to get excited about, even for a sometimes 13th forward.

  36. Ducey says:

    Ribs:
    Dove-McFalls? That is a really terrible hockey name.

    Sounds like a perfect pseudonym for Taylor Hall.

    (sorry, still grumpy at him over his “happy they are out of the playoffs” comment)

  37. Patrick C says:

    Oddspell:
    The google translation of the Andronov article seems more about the hometown connection between Adronov and Slepyshev than about Oilers interest. Maybe there’s an implication behind that connection that’s lost in the “translation”.

    Yes, it just notes that Slepyshev is the only other Penza guy in the NHL right now, and the first from that city to record a playoff point. Paigin’s from there, too — he and Slepyshev played kids’ hockey together.

    Anyway re: Andronov, it says that he has “three substantive offers” from NHL clubs, but doesn’t specify which ones.

  38. Professor Q says:

    Bohologo,

    “Other Local Boy Recently Potted Some Points in NHL Playoffs”?

  39. VOR says:

    pink socks,

    I don’t know about no home runs.

    In any reasonable re-draft of their years’ Chimera goes top ten, Horcoff goes top fifteen, Rieder goes top twenty, Brodziak goes top thirty – in other words they should all have been first rounders and were steals in the later rounds. Vandevelde is currently about 45th in a redraft and Davidson is around 50th, so 2nd rounders, still remarkable value for where they were drafted.

    I consider the first 4 guys home runs. My definition is first round value taken in the later rounds. I am curious what definition you are using?

  40. Bag of Pucks says:

    This time of year, I see a lot of commentary around what type of roster and team system it takes to win the Cup. To me, there is no single way to skin this cat and suggesting there is, is a bit of a mug’s game imo.

    Pitt is winning with superior F scoring depth, meh D focused on quick outlet transition game, good goaltending and commitment to ‘swarm-esque’ attack style. Nashville got there with strong two way F depth, likely the best D core in the league, hot goaltending and a similar aggressive forecheck style.

    So, what’s the common denominator? Speed and hot goaltending, which has always been a thing in the NHL.

    At the end of the day, it’s about depth, balance, and skill. Stock your roster with more of that than the competition and I think you’ll find a way regardless of system.

    In my grizzled lifetime, the NHL has basically seen two major ‘systems’ innovations (the European style & the trap/left wing lock). Everything else described as system innovation is just variations on forechecking and zone coverage schemes.

    Systems don’t win in the NHL. Players do.

  41. ashley says:

    I’m not one that is cheering for lots of trading action. Years of EDM finding itself on the losing side of trades cured me of that. But also, this team is well constructed and is close to being a top contender. We need a little action. Not a lot of action.

    I admire the optimism.

  42. --hudson-- says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1 Reinhart
    2 Josh Norris, C,USNDTP
    3 Eberle traded for Kyle Palmieri
    4 Nuge stays
    5 LB
    6 $3.5M for 3 years for Russell
    7 $10.5M for 5 years for McD
    8 $7.2M for 8 years for Drai
    9 Russell & Ben Lovejoy
    10 Palmieri (NJ acquires Ebs, Caleb Jones & Fayne for Palmieri & Lovejoy)
    11 Yes Jesse breaks camp on the pro roster
    12 Three

  43. VOR says:

    omjo,

    I don’t disagree with your assessment. Only Horcoff spent a career, or most of it, with the Oilers. Which is lousy asset management. But that isn’t down to the scouts and isn’t germane to JTBlack’s question. He asked about draft day steals. These guys all were draft day steals, regardless of where they ended up playing:

    Rieder – 2011
    Davidson – 2010
    Vandevelde – 2005
    Brodziak – 2003
    Horcoff – 1998
    Chimera – 1997

    So I would say the answer to JTBlack’s question is 2011.

    One of my favorite stories about a scout having the courage of his convictions shows why you can’t judge the scout by what decisions the management of the team makes.

    So this scout, lets call him Inge, is a former NHL player and newly minted scout. He is convinced he has seen the next great NHL player, a power forward, and no-one else knows the kid’s name. Inge watches in horror as other teams discover the young man who rapidly shoots up to being a likely #1 overall and out of any chance of his team drafting the kid.

    Then the whisper campaign starts. The young man has injury problems. He lacks heart. He won’t go to the hard areas. I should pause here and say I am not making this up, as hard as it will be for anybody to believe when I get to the end of the story. Some scouting services had him as low as 22nd and falling coming into the draft.

    Inge’s team, lets call them the Philadelphia Flyers, are picking 6th OV. No way their management team wants to waste that pick on a kid with injury problems, and who lacks the right stuff. Inge wages a full out war to get the Flyers to pick the kid. He does a presentation where he famously claims that the kid isn’t just good he is great. Yes, the injuries may be real but the rumors about the young man’s character and heart aren’t. He is a warrior, a monster on skates, and according to Inge he will be a generational talent. Finally the Flyers management gives in and takes the kid.

    Of course that 6th OV pick will never play a game for the Flyers. He will be traded away as part of a much bigger multi-player deal. Does this mean Inge shouldn’t get credit for what happened next. Because of course, the young man did have the heart of warrior, was a monster on skates, and did go on to be a generational talent, though sadly the injuries did eventually catch up with Peter Forsberg.

    But Inge Hammerstrom deserves full marks for knowing value when he saw it. As do the scouts that picked Chimera. Horcoff, Brodziak, Vandevelde, Davidson, and Rieder. It is tough enough being a scout without getting handicapped by all the dumb things your management does with the talent you find for the team.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Aside from Horcoff we either gave the rest away or let them go before they could bring any impact to the roster.

    Sure but that wasn’t the question.

  45. Jordan says:

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?: Eberle (other pieces coming back to edmonton to leave him unprotected)
    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft? Morgan Geekie
    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who) See 1 – I’m going to guess Vegas’ 1st and 3rd in 2018
    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who) No
    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1? Brossoit
    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer) 9 M / 3 years
    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract? 45M / 5 years
    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract? 56M / 8 years
    9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1? Reinhart & Russell
    10) Biggest off-season F acquired in terms of salary?: Presuming this means not currently on the roster, Justin Williams. If not, Leon.
    11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1? No
    12) How many roster trades does Chia make? 3

  46. Moose says:

    Jaxon:
    I wouldn’t expect much from Andronov. His 24 year old (draft+7) season in the AHL worked out to an NHLE of under 19 pts. There’s not enough offense there to get excited about, even for a sometimes 13th forward.

    My expectations are always tempered with these unsigned Europeans, mostly because we’ve sucked at identifying good ones, but there’s nothing wrong with a bottom 6 / spare forward putting up 19 points. That’s more than Caggiula and Pouliot did this year. Granted, one was a rookie who missed time w/injury and the other had an awful year, but are we really expecting another 35 point year from Mark Letestu?

    Also, C is a position we still have very little organizational depth at. We were very fortunate in that 97, 29 and 93 all played all 82 games this year. How likely is that again? Lander is gone, Khaira may get snagged by Vegas. Pretty much leaves Gambardella as your first call-up option.

    Might not be anything in the story, but it’s definitely worth a look. The plus is he’s a developed player and there’s no asset cost (assuming St. Louis releases his rights, which still sounds unclear).

  47. BrazilianOil says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!Who knows about this off season, but there will be some big winners and losers I suspect.In Chia we believe.We are in good shape finally though, because we are talking about trading under-performing actual NHL players for more suitable/cost-effective NHL players.

    – I’ll keep posting this untill I don’t get responses, its the “2017 Arm-Chair Prognosticate contest”.Deadline is Vegas Draft (or earlier if there is a big trade that breaks!)

    – Winner gets a Lowetide pal-pay contribution and respect: Please answer the following:

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
    9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
    10) Biggest off-season F acquired in terms of salary?:
    11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1?
    12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

    Use this format so I can cut and paste:

    1Reinhart
    2Lindl
    3 yes, Hamonic
    4 No
    5 Broissot
    6 3’5×2
    7 9×5
    8 7×7
    9 Hamonic, Russell
    10 Eaves
    11 Yes
    12 3

  48. hunter1909 says:

    Ducey: Sounds like a perfect pseudonym for Taylor Hall.

    (sorry, still grumpy at him over his “happy they are out of the playoffs” comment)

    I still think about what Rob Schremp, playing with McDavid and Yakupov might have been.

  49. Moose says:

    hunter1909: I still think about what Rob Schremp,playing with McDavid and Yakupov might have been.

    Probably an insufferable asshole.

  50. VOR says:

    For those of you who want to make your heads hurt may I recommend Joshua Weissbock’s Master’s thesis in Computer Science at the University of Ottawa.

    https://www.ruor.uottawa.ca/bitstream/10393/31553/3/Weissbock_Joshua_2014_thesis.pdf

    Among other things he suggest that the outcomes of a season of NHL hockey most resemble a league where 24% of games are determined by skill and 76% by chance.

    He also finds advanced stats aren’t useful in determining the outcome of individual games.

    And that the best prediction model possible would be right 62% of the time when predicting individual game outcomes.

    Things get better in a 7 game series but luck still remains a real factor. NHL playoff hockey is like a league where 48% of the outcome is skill and 52% is chance.

    In other words, allowing for small sample size issues you should be able to predict outcomes with 74% accuracy.

    Advanced stats are better at predicting playoff outcomes than conventional statistics.

    Recent Fenwick % is the best of the advanced stats.

  51. Diablo says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    This time of year, I see a lot of commentary around what type of roster and team system it takes to win the Cup. To me, there is no single way to skin this cat and suggesting there is, is a bit of a mug’s game imo.

    Pitt is winning with superior F scoring depth, meh D focused on quick outlet transition game, good goaltending and commitment to ‘swarm-esque’ attack style. Nashville got there with strong two way F depth, likely the best D core in the league, hot goaltending and a similar aggressive forecheck style.

    So, what’s the common denominator? Speed and hot goaltending, which has always been a thing in the NHL.

    At the end of the day, it’s about depth, balance, and skill. Stock your roster with more of that than the competition and I think you’ll find a way regardless of system.

    In my grizzled lifetime, the NHL has basically seen two major ‘systems’ innovations (the European style & the trap/left wing lock). Everything else described as system innovation is just variations on forechecking and zone coverage schemes.

    Systems don’t win in the NHL. Players do.

    Really well said – I just love coming here to read the really insightful posts like this.

    I do think that coaching plays a role in (1) establishing the systems that the team will use, (2) fine-tuning the systems during the course of the season to the players on hand, and most importantly (3) getting the players to buy in fully and completely, and trust that by adhering to the structure established during the regular season, good things will happen in the playoffs. But beyond that I feel like we put too much emphasis on these things.

    I base this feeling on 2 things I saw in the Pittsburg-Ottawa series:

    1) You won’t go anywhere in playoffs unless your goaltending is completely dialled in.

    2) Your top players have to really, really bring it. Crosby and Malkin – man those two guys were absolutely flying up and down the ice, and were playing at such a phenomenal pace on every shift. That Pittsburg team right now is basically Crosby/Malkin + Kessel + a bunch of other unspectacular guys.

    If we’re being honest (and not just defaulting back to our own personal grudges – TMac, Chia, Russell, Eberle, Lucic, referees etc.) – we just didn’t see McDavid play at that level during his first playoffs, while Draisaitl was unable to bring it consistently enough (there were too many lapses in attention leading to turnovers) by comparison to the more experienced Pittsburg duo.

    I’m not calling them out or anything, nor am I at all disappointed by them – they had phenomenal seasons and totally blew apart the reasonable expectations for the regular season AND the playoffs. At the same time, they weren’t quite ready to take it to the level that Crosby/Malkin are at right now – though I suspect it won’t be long before they do.

  52. Diablo says:

    Also good news from Elliott Friedman – Dubas no longer in talks with Colorado.
    I hope he gets a chance to be GM somewhere, but hopefully with an Eastern conference team.

  53. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    Systems don’t win in the NHL. Players do.

    Actually coaches who are able to adapt systems to the talent available win most of the time.

    Bylsma could only win one cup with Crosby and Malkin. Sullivan is close to going two for two.

    McLellan could never mesh his systems and talent in San Jose to maximize results. Sutter or Carlyle or Quenneville or Babcock ultimately did it better head to head with McLellan.

  54. Bag of Pucks says:

    Diablo: Really well said – I just love coming here to read the really insightful posts like this.

    I do think that coaching plays a role in (1) establishing the systems that the team will use, (2) fine-tuning the systems during the course of the season to the players on hand, and most importantly (3) getting the players to buy in fully and completely, and trust that by adhering to the structure established during the regular season, good things will happen in the playoffs. But beyond that I feel like we put too much emphasis on these things.

    I base this feeling on 2 things I saw in the Pittsburg-Ottawa series:

    1) You won’t go anywhere in playoffs unless your goaltending is completely dialled in.

    2) Your top players have to really, really bring it. Crosby and Malkin – man those two guys were absolutely flying up and down the ice, and were playing at such a phenomenal pace on every shift. That Pittsburg team right now is basically Crosby/Malkin + Kessel + a bunch of other unspectacular guys.

    If we’re being honest (and not just defaulting back to our own personal grudges – TMac, Chia, Russell, Eberle, Lucic, referees etc.) – we just didn’t see McDavid play at that level during his first playoffs, while Draisaitl was unable to bring it consistently enough (there were too many lapses in attention leading to turnovers) by comparison to the more experienced Pittsburg duo.

    I’m not calling them out or anything, nor am I at all disappointed by them – they had phenomenal seasons and totally blew apart the reasonable expectations for the regular season AND the playoffs. At the same time, they weren’t quite ready to take it to the level that Crosby/Malkin are at right now – though I suspect it won’t be long before they do.

    100% agree

  55. Alpine says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1) Khaira
    2) Yamamoto
    3) Yes, for Hamonic and some other moving parts
    4) No
    5) Brossoit
    6) 2 x 4 mil
    7) 6 years 63 million (10.5 AAV)
    8) 8 years 56 million (7 AAV)
    9) Russell, Hamonic
    10) Justin Williams, 3.5 million
    11) Gonna go with yes, Jesse takes Ebs’ spot.
    12) Two

  56. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: Actually coaches who are able to adapt systems to the talent available win most of the time.

    Bylsma could only win one cup with Crosby and Malkin.Sullivan is close to going two for two.

    McLellan could never mesh his systems and talent in San Jose to maximize results. Sutter or Carlyle or Quenneville or Babcock ultimately did it better head to head with McLellan.

    Other than the trap or the swarm, the latter of which is just glorified forecheck assignments, can you name an actual system that is in vogue with a current HC or group of HCs?

    The NFL is a systems league. As a result, you can quickly name the systems that have come into fashion, been emulated, died off, and started anew, etc. The 4/3. The 3/4. The 46. The West Coast Offense. Run and Shoot. Wildcat. etc.

    The NHL doesn’t have this because systems in hockey are not massively different from team to team. Forecheck assignments and dzone coverage assignments. Diamond or box for PK. Some set plays on the breakout or PP zone entry. That’s about it.

  57. Ice Sage says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    This time of year, I see a lot of commentary around what type of roster and team system it takes to win the Cup. To me, there is no single way to skin this cat and suggesting there is, is a bit of a mug’s game imo.

    Pitt is winning with superior F scoring depth, meh D focused on quick outlet transition game, good goaltending and commitment to ‘swarm-esque’ attack style. Nashville got there with strong two way F depth, likely the best D core in the league, hot goaltending and a similar aggressive forecheck style.

    So, what’s the common denominator? Speed and hot goaltending, which has always been a thing in the NHL.

    At the end of the day, it’s about depth, balance, and skill. Stock your roster with more of that than the competition and I think you’ll find a way regardless of system.

    In my grizzled lifetime, the NHL has basically seen two major ‘systems’ innovations (the European style & the trap/left wing lock). Everything else described as system innovation is just variations on forechecking and zone coverage schemes.

    Systems don’t win in the NHL. Players do.

    Thank you Bag – great and succinct summary. Plus ca change…
    I’d only add the Goalie factor as one more innovation – their ability to dictate the game via puck-handling and stopping play has altered the dynamic.

    Speaking of which, as a subtle and fan-acceptable rule change, I’d like to see the defending team not be able to change (icing-style) if their goalie freezes the puck. We’d see more scoring and chaos.

  58. Jaxon says:

    Moose: My expectations are always tempered with these unsigned Europeans, mostly because we’ve sucked at identifying good ones, but there’s nothing wrong with a bottom 6 / spare forward putting up 19 points. That’s more than Caggiula and Pouliot did this year. Granted, one was a rookie who missed time w/injury and the other had an awful year, but are we really expecting another 35 point year from Mark Letestu?

    Also, C is a position we still have very little organizational depth at. We were very fortunate in that 97, 29 and 93 all played all 82 games this year. How likely is that again? Lander is gone, Khaira may get snagged by Vegas. Pretty much leaves Gambardella as your first call-up option.

    Might not be anything in the story, but it’s definitely worth a look. The plus is he’s a developed player and there’s no asset cost (assuming St. Louis releases his rights, which still sounds unclear).

    Sure, except Caggiula’s NHLE as a 21 year old before joining the Oilers was 44pts. Andronov will be 28 years old before training camp starts.

    Andronov’s 19 pts as a 24 year old (which is pretty close to prime years) is a big drop from Caggiula’s 44 pts as a 21 year old (which is an age with lots of room for improvement). I’d say there is more of a chance of him not reaching his NHLE than reaching it as a player past his prime years who has never achieved much in lesser leagues.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca