RE 16-17 ADAM LARSSON: TALK SHOW HOST

Adam Larsson handled it perfectly. A lesser man might have tried to do too much, or said the wrong thing. It isn’t like he can score four goals opening night and make everyone forget, so he didn’t try. On opening night he played a steady game with calm feet, recovered from his mistakes, sent Tyler Pitlick on his merry way. At the other end of the year, in G6 against the Sharks, he did the same thing on Leon’s goal. His nickname could be rinse repeat, because that’s what Adam Larsson did all season long. (Talk Show Host)

ADAM LARSSON 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.73 (4th among regular defensemen)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 0.00 (13 total minutes 5×4)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 50.0
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: -0.4
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 48.5
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: +0.2 (35 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 85 shots/4.7%
  • Boxcars: 79, 4-15-19
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS

  • RE 16-17: 79gp, 4-15-19 .241
  • Actual 16-17: 73gp, 4-16-20 .274
  • Source
  1. You’re right, he handled it well. I thought he was effective from the opening faceoff of the season. Steady, reliable, he gave Edmonton exactly what you might expect, with some added flourishes.
  2. Like? I didn’t expect him to bring the nasty and he was pure acid to the opposition. He’s also subtle about it, there’s no unnecessary attention brought to an elbow or a cross check. Stealth and deadly, I really like that about his game.
  3. He is not an offensive dynamo. No sir, he’s exactly what we thought he would be in that area. Makes a nice headman pass, sends some errant pucks through the year but has nice recovery skills.
  4. Klefbom really helped his game. You see, I’d turn that around and say Larsson gave Klefbom room to wheel. Larsson is a steady player, allows his more mobile and creative partner to roam. It’s a good fit and I think they feed off of each other, but I’ve seen a lot of credit going Klefbom’s way (deserved) and would like to point out Larsson made things possible with his steady play.
  5. What does he do well defensively? He marks his man well, understands the idea of gaps and manages his half of the ice well. If he gets caught flat footed he will recover and he (and this is a very good thing) understands the difference between a good penalty and being foolish. He might want to help others in this area.
  6. Did he have good possession numbers? I believe he did, your mileage may vary.
  7. What do the possession numbers tell us? Traditional (Corsi 5×5 for percentage) tells us he played opponents to a draw and his rel is slightly better than the group. That’s good, Edmonton needs as many pairings above water as possible, and we know he played lots of minutes against tough opposition. All of this is good information, but this year we have the Woodmonies.  Woodmoney metrics gives us a color photo.
  8. What does WM say? DFF (Dangerous Fenwick For) percentage rel against elites is into the black (that is good) but the slightest amount. He played 481 minutes against elite competition and played them to 48.5 percent overall. This compares to partner Oscar Klefbom (480 minutes, 48 percent), and second pairing Andrej Sekera (459 minutes, 47 percent) and Kris Russell (418 minutes, 47.8 percent). All of this 5×5.
  9. So he played the most against elites and had the best Dangerous Fenwick? Yes, but it’s very close. I would say the Klefbom-Larsson pairing were the class of the group and give us hope for the future. The Sekera-Russell pairing was very close in terms of how much they played elite opponents, and their possession numbers are close enough for jazz.
  10. So Edmonton had two equal pairings? Yes, and the Swedes were a hair better in those minutes.
  11. How much did Larsson play with McDavid? 466 minutes, Larsson was 52.3 Corsi for 5×5 percentage with 97.
  12. Without McDavid? 48.7 percent in over 900 minutes. I’d count that as a good number considering the roster and things like score effects.
  13. How does that compare to the WOWYs for the other RHD? Russell went 48.7 5×5 Corsi for 5×5 with McDavid and 45.1 without him. Larsson was as good without McDavid as Russell was with him, in possession.
  14. How is that possible? It’s a giant concern no doubt, if the puck isn’t going in a good direction with McDavid what in hell is happening? The kicker is Matt Benning.
  15. Benning? Yeah. Matt Benning was 53.0  with McDavid and 51.6 without him.
  16. Amazing. Yep. You want to see it again but that was a helluva rookie season.
  17. Back to Larsson. Were fans generally satisfied? I think so, Edmonton won a lot of hockey games, won a playoff series and stretched another to seven games, and Larsson was there playing defense for all of it.
  18. There is still a sense of rage among some though. I don’t think that will subside, nature of a trade like this one. We’ve asked and answered all and if we’re still on opposite sides then one suspects the song will remain the same all down the line.
  19. Will Oilers fans come together again? Not sure. I’ve found that my opinion solidifies over time and the farther away from the moment the less likely my mind will change. It’s best to let each of us sort it out for ourselves.
  20. I think they’re being stubborn. Who is “they”?
  21. The people who won’t let the trade go. Clearly they’re wrong. We’re all going to have to let this play out over several seasons. Everyone wants the answer instantly, and everyone thinks they’re right and the other guy is an idiot. Doesn’t work like that.
  22. Can’t they just let it go? Well, my Dad was a Leafs fan until they traded Frank Mahovlich and that deal broke the faith he had in them. He never did care as had once been the case, and lord knows I tried.
  23. How many Stanley’s did the Leafs win with Mahovlich? Four.
  24. How many Stanley’s did the Leafs win after him? None.
  25. How many did Frank win? Two, both with Montreal. The one in 1971 doesn’t happen without big Frank.
  26. So Hall fans are as stubborn as your Dad? And as stubborn as you and me. Let this play out, and if I may give some advice, don’t be in so much of a hurry to declare victory. We don’t know jack yet, and all we have now is emotion, turmoil and some of the finest issue-framing I’ve ever seen.
  27. Did the Oilers handle the trade transition well? The coach did.  McLellan on Adam Larsson: “We’ve got to take our time with him. I don’t want to be bold and tell the fans and even his teammates that he’s going to play in a situation or that situation. We’ve got to take some time with him and we’ve got to make him comfortable with what he does best, and that’s playing regular minutes and penalty killing and playing a good defensive game.” Source
  28. How did Chiarelli play it? In a curious way. Chiarelli: “So generally speaking guys, you know what – it’s a tough business. You make these decisions. Whatever you do, social media is going to criticize you. Whatever you do. It’s like talk radio. It’s a really public forum and you just (laughs) you don’t look at it, basically.”
  29. Why did he frame it that way? I suspect he’d heard early trade reaction and perhaps didn’t anticipate the fierce blow back. Boston is a hockey town, but the Oilers are religion in Edmonton. The words above by Chiarelli sound like a guy playing defense and at that moment surely that’s what he was doing. I bet he will be more prepared for the next wildly unpopular deal, hopefully there’s a Stanley between now and then.
  30. Bet he’s glad the season worked out as it did. Yes. Absolutely. He had McDavid though, that’s basically having five aces up your sleeve.
  31. What should we expect from Larsson next season? The great thing about these kinds of players is that they are consistent. We can hope for growth from the Swedish pairing and that may come. Even if we get a year like this one from Klefbom-Larsson I’d be satisfied.
  32. Why this song? Partly because the sound and structure of the song is more set, traditional, balanced. It’s what you expect a song to sound like, and in that way represents Larsson more than the rest of the Radiohead catalogue. I also think Larsson may be the kind of guy who waits for you with a gun and a pack of sandwiches. He’s pretty filthy if the moment commands.

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31 Responses to "RE 16-17 ADAM LARSSON: TALK SHOW HOST"

  1. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Godot 10

    Good catch last post, I saw Werenski on a pair chart and Woodguy’s phone wouldn’t let me check. I still stand stubbornly by my point! 😎

  2. Woogie63 says:

    I loved Larsson’s season. Larsson, Sekera, Russell should long be remembered in Oiler folklore as the
    men that helped Nurse, Klefblom, Benning and Reinhart (fingers crossed) develop. After 8-10 years of trying we have a defensive group that other teams envy.

  3. leadfarmer says:

    VOR. I would suggest cutting it off at 100 players instead of 210. Seems like after the 3rd round things leave each team’s brain trust and becomes more of individual scouts take and then it really becomes a crap shoot.

  4. Brantford Boy says:

    I really like Larsson’s game, ALOT! In fact he may be my favorite defender on the team. Its basically what I wanted to see from Fayne but not to be. I think the only thing I could stretch as a negative is I saw him do that stealth elbow as he pasted someone into the boards and got a penalty (maybe 20 games into the season). He did the same play the next game and I thought we were going to see a very bad dumb penalty trend, but he broke loose from it. IMO the goalie feels much better when Larsson is on the ice, I know I do. That 2 goal playoff game sure was sweet too… more please!

  5. leadfarmer says:

    The Larsson will be known as steering a forward towards the boards and robbing him blind

  6. VOR says:

    leadfarmer,

    I think the technology exists to pare it back, round by round. So does the NHLE totaled for all 210 players correlate with the success of the total field. How about of we only consider the first 180 players drafted, the first 150. the first 120. the first 90. the first 60, the first 30? Can you use NHLE as a population metric at all?

    An aside, those later rounds are crap shoots now. But I do not think they need to be.

  7. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer:
    The Larsson will be known as steering a forward towards the boards and robbing him blind

    Larsso-knee?
    wallet stolen, stomach punched

  8. dessert1111 says:

    One of my all time favourite songs, thanks LT.

    Helluva player too.

  9. StixMalone says:

    Chuck Norris is afraid of Lars

  10. digger50 says:

    Love Adam the player. As a talk show host, better book some guests who love to talk. Like to see him interview Cherry.

  11. leadfarmer says:

    VOR:
    leadfarmer,

    I think the technology exists to pare it back, round by round. So does the NHLE totaled for all 210 players correlate with the success of the total field. How about of we only consider the first 180 players drafted, the first 150. the first 120. the first 90. the first 60, the first 30? Can you use NHLE as a population metric at all?

    An aside, those later rounds are crap shoots now. But I do not think they need to be.

    No but getting a zetterberg in the 7th round might skew your results. Does the scout that found zetterberg deserve credit, sure. Does the entire scouting department? They did pick, Tolsa, Maximenko, McDonnell over him.

    You asked earlier what has changed in scouting. Well the Internet changed a lot of things. You can send game tapes across the world in minutes. You can skype with coaches (and fire them). You can YouTube prospects. You can connect to Swedish Oil here and get prospect overviews of Swedish players. There is just so much more info on these guys than in the past

  12. leadfarmer says:

    Interestingly enough Petterson has 8 more points in Timra this year than Zetterberg did in his Post draft season #2 in Timra

  13. Jethro Tull says:

    Adam Larsson is Stan Weir approved.

  14. JDI says:

    I always thought Todd Nelson’s twit pic would be a Camaro. WRONG!

    https://twitter.com/Todd_Nelson44

  15. Pescador says:

    JDI:
    I always thought Todd Nelson’s twit pic would be a Camaro. WRONG!

    https://twitter.com/Todd_Nelson44

    Sometimes those fancy bikes are themed.
    That one is called “the Camaro”
    Pretty sure

  16. JDI says:

    Pescador: Pretty sure

    Either way, that was better than I could ever imagine.

  17. OF17 says:

    I think it’s a testament to Larsson’s play that many of us have abandoned the idea of a puck-moving, offensive 2RD in favor of another rocking-chair RD. I don’t want Faulk; I want Hamonic or Gudas. I want a guy that can be thrown out whenever with whomever and keep things calm and moving forward. That’s Larsson’s game, and I think his presence has given us a renewed appreciation for how nice that style of D is.

    As an interesting exercise, what would it take for you to trade Larsson now? I’d trade him for a better RD of course, but aside from that, it’d take a Draisaitl-level player under control for several years. In other words, a unicorn.

  18. jtblack says:

    Don’t be in so much of a hurry to declare victory.” –

    I find this interesting. Why do we (fans) have to declare victory at all? How about saying they got a great LW driver and we got a Rock Solid Defenseman.

    For me, Larsson was excellent. I was more worried at the beginning of the year, but I truly believe that Larsson showed us something we haven’t seen since The Jason Smith, Matt Greene days … Solid, Consistent, Nasty. The 44 minute playoff game was awesome. His one piece of the puzzle (Charllie Huddy, Steve Smith, Kevin Lowe Craig Muni); not sure if those are good comparables but you get the picture … For the Hall fans that are angry, I think they wanted Paul Coffey back in the trade .. I get it …

    “We’re all going to have to let this play out over several seasons. Everyone wants the answer instantly” – This is true. The new age is about instant Grat … I will add that playing out over years will give an answer, but what it is remains to be seen. I wish Hall the best in NJ and actually feel that he is in another bad spot (Terrible D just like his years in Edm) …. As for Larsson, he seems to like it in Edmonton. We are happy to have him.

    Cup 2018!!!!!!!!!!

  19. Diablo says:

    OF17:
    I think it’s a testament to Larsson’s play that many of us have abandoned the idea of a puck-moving, offensive 2RD in favor of another rocking-chair RD. I don’t want Faulk; I want Hamonic or Gudas. I want a guy that can be thrown out whenever with whomever and keep things calm and moving forward. That’s Larsson’s game, and I think his presence has given us a renewed appreciation for how nice that style of D is.

    As an interesting exercise, what would it take for you to trade Larsson now? I’d trade him for a better RD of course, but aside from that, it’d take a Draisaitl-level player under control for several years. In other words, a unicorn.

    Pretty much.

  20. jtblack says:

    OF17,

    I have not abandoned the Offensive RHD. .. maybe many have as you say, but not me. I think we will need an offensice RHD if we want the Cup to be in Edm. That simple.

  21. Optimism is like heroin says:

    OF17,

    Makes sense as to why it took Hall to pry him out of New Jersey.

  22. stush18 says:

    Optimism is like heroin:
    OF17,

    Makes sense as to why it took Hall to pry him out of New Jersey.

    I’d get a lot of criticism from some people for saying this, but I wouldn’t trade him for hall if they offered him to us.

  23. hunter1909 says:

    Larsson+Klefbom = Vikings = great players and people to have on your hockey team.

    Re the upcoming draft: To hell with so-called bpa when no one has a freaking clue who is going to break out and who is going to bust in 3 years.

    Therefore: Oilers need a puck moving defenseman. Round one can turn up some good ones. Target the top 5 puck movers in the draft beforehand…is that so difficult?

    Either that or draft that Finnish power forward. McDavid provides all the Canadiana needed to make a great cup run next season.

  24. hunter1909 says:

    stush18: I’d get a lot of criticism from some people for saying this, but I wouldn’t trade him for hall if they offered him to us.

    A handful of Hall die hards only. 90% of sane fans, including Lowetide have moved on.

  25. Professor Q says:

    Strome looked like and sounded like a salty zombie for winning the MVP Cup but losing the Memorial Cup. Dead tired.

    I mean, people care about it. It’s not like *no one* does…although he is 20 so maybe it doesn’t mean as much as, say, when Draisaitl won it.

  26. VOR says:

    Lead farmer,

    Every scout I have talked with has gone on and on about the technological innovation and changes. As you put it, how much more information they have. But there are those who go on to talk about what could be possible, what should be possible. Those are the one that keep showing at Carelton and MIT/Sloan and at Stanford.

    They have convinced me that Datsuk and Zetterberg and the other late round gems aren’t flukes but rather poorly understood sign posts. There is this core of true believers who thinks the day will come when it is expected that each draft year your team will find 3 or 4 useful pieces and that the best teams will be getting 6 or 7 each year. These iconoclasts believe there will come a time where 60 to 80% of all drafted players will play in the NHL.

  27. theDjdj says:

    I think Larsson has more to give offensively. He was on something like 40 point/season pace after January this year.

    He has the skill set. Won’t ever forget that coast to coast game winning goal he scored against Anaheim in the playoffs.

  28. MrEd says:

    If I’d had a son I would have named him Adam.
    That was before this dude played for my team.

    Understated hard-working gnarly bastard.
    With up-tick and a cool contract.

    Shhhh.

  29. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    You know that’s a yearly turnover of 150 players per year. That’s the entire league turning over every 4 years. It will never happen because teams already invested in development time for players so the guys that are established will continue to be preferred over the rookies unless those rookies are clearly better. Teams can’t hit 60-80 % in the first round

  30. VOR says:

    Leadfarmer,

    I have to disagree. First off the average career expectancy of an NHL hockey player is 5.72 years based on Quant Hockey.

    According to Quant and Hockey News 14.2% of NHL players retire in an average year.

    However according to Rob Vollman there are 20.2% of players who miss more than ten games. Which would mean minimally you would need 744 players. But this doesn’t take into account shorter injuries or multiple different players being called up to cover one injury.

    According to Hockey Reference and Hockey News the actual number of players last year who played in the NHL was just over 1000 and this number has been pretty consistent for years. With another team entering next year lets say 1023 players.

    14.2% times 1023 is 145 players and that is just under 70% of a typical draft year. Yet recent drafts have struggled to get above 43% of players into the NHL. The other jobs have been taken by players who were never drafted or filled by players who played into their dotage.

    Plus an argument could be made that some marginal players would have left the game earlier if they had been forced out by good young kids. The average length of career has been going up steadily mainly because of marginal players having larger average careers. So 80% or 168 players out of one draft is nowhere near as absurd as it sounds.

  31. russ99 says:

    Larsson had a great season.

    Would love another player like him for the second pair, tough, solid, defense first, offense second.

    Gudas could fit the bill.

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