TRADING NO. 22 OVERALL

The Edmonton Oilers enter the 2017 draft under unusual circumstances: They will be sitting in the fourth row! The club’s first pick comes at No. 22 and there is no second-round pick this year (yet) so it’s very important to hit the jackpot with the first selection of the weekend.

  • Keith Gretzky, Oilers AGM: “Guys you think won’t be there, might be there, and I’ve seen it happen before. Our group is well-prepared, we know who we want to get to know better and we try to get to know them because a trade could happen, you could get another pick or anything could happen. So you’ve got to be prepared.” Source

We can’t know what the Oilers list looks like and in a year like this one the range could be very wide. I posted my Top 150 for the draft and there are all kinds of sources out there to offer opinion. The big difference this season, especially among forwards, is foot speed. There is no dominant player at the top, let alone at No. 22 overall. What about trading No. 22 overall?

POSSIBLE ASSETS OUT

  1. Jordan Eberle: Dealing Eberle may be difficult. Chiarelli probably already knows the level of asset return and it may not be attractive. Eberle may be an Oiler in the fall. Edmonton is in a tough spot with 14, because trading him helps the cap and brings back a useful asset, while also creating a hole. If the offers don’t reach a certain value, suspect Eberle will be pulled back from the market. There is a chance he plays out his contract (expires 2019 summer).
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: I list him but it’s interesting RNH didn’t make Seravalli’s initial list. We’ll see, but there does seem to be the train of thought suggesting management saw enough from the Nuge to keep him. He has the highest value among possibly available Oilers, suspect the return would be in the Justin Faulk range. Peter Chiarelli traded his most valuable asset (non-McDavid division) for need, I don’t see this being the primary option. Yet.
  3. Jesse Puljujarvi: This is a damned drastic thought, kind of a last ditch effort and precious gem in case a Chris Pronger deal comes available. If Toronto won’t trade Nylander for that quality blue, maybe Chiarelli steps up and hits a big fly. One of the things we’ll talk about in the RE? Will Puljujarvi play the full season in Edmonton, and if he does get sent down, how does that impact his value?
  4. No. 22 overall: Maybe this is the one asset that can get a deal done. Would Las Vegas grab one of those Florida defensemen in exchange? Mark Pysyk? Alex Petrovic? It would put the Oilers in a tough spot in terms of drafting, and could set up a complete washout for the procurement department. An active college signing season could replace some of that (two years hence) but Edmonton is so low on prospect forwards this represents a real risk.
  5. Anton Slepyshev: There are some advantages to where he is in terms of contract. Slepyshev appears to be NHL-ready while also being ineligible for the expansion draft. There’s a narrow little window there and Slepyshev is in that window. Increased value.
  6. Caleb Jones: I’m not sure how much of a gap there might be between No. 22 overall and Jones, but he is another option. The thing about Jones is that he really does appear to have a fairly complete set of skills. For a team like Las Vegas, a young blue (20) who can settle in at the AHL level and grow his talents will be a very unique item in year one.
  7. Ethan Bear. As is the case with Jones, Ethan Bear could have a great amount of appeal for the Golden Knights. If (say) Petrovic is chosen (and flipped), GMGM could easily draft another defenseman from an NHL team for the short term, while also acquiring a player just turning pro and ineligible for waivers until fall 2020.
  8. 2018 first-round selection: Probably going to be No. 21-31 next year, we don’t know what kind of draft we’re looking at next year. I’m not quite sure where to put the value  (might have far more value if Oilers stumble) but we’ll say it’s No. 25 overall and put it here.
  9. Jujhar Khaira: I appear to be the only guy who thinks Khaira has legit value, but I’m going to stay stubborn on it. He is a big, strong player with a nasty streak and he has some offense.
  10. Griffin Reinhart. I assume he’s going to be chosen in the expansion draft but if he isn’t the Oilers are very likely to keep him around. With Andrej Sekera hurt, a left side depth chart of Oscar Klefbom-Kris Russell-Darnell Nurse-Griffin Reinhart is possible. That said, if PC can use GR to address need suspect he’ll do just that thing. I think we can project Reinhart as a player of interest for Vegas, maybe he goes there in trade.

POULIOT AND FAYNE

  • George McPhee on NHL general managers“Most of the guys have been really forthright in what they want to do, who they’ll probably expose and who they’d like to protect. And we’re trying to find ways to accommodate each other. We won’t be able to do that with everyone.” Source

Maybe Peter Chiarelli will be offering Griffin Reinhart in exchange for LV choosing Benoit Pouliot in the expansion selection. McPhee likes those big WHL defensemen (drafted Jeff Schultz, Mike Green and Karl Alzner high a decade ago) and I bet Reinhart is at least a discussion point between the two general managers.

UNUSUAL DRAFT CLASS

  • Central Scouting Director Dan Marr on where the draft gets unpredictable: “I’d say it’s more like five through 25. This draft class did not sort themselves out for the scouts this year. I think a lot of teams are going to be quite pleased because there’s 31 different philosophies going into a draft. I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re going to hear somebody say, ‘We got a guy we had ranked in our top 10,’ all the way through the draft.” Source

Despite what was mentioned above (trading No. 22) it’ll be fun to see what happens if Edmonton is still on the clock when that pick comes around. It could be traded (NJD have No. 36 and No. 63) for extra picks or the Oilers could use it.

MOCK DRAFT NO. 10

What if the Oilers list this season is devoted purely to skill forwards? What if, no matter size nor foot speed, Edmonton chose a skill F at every turn? I’m going to use Future Considerations Top 100 as a guide since it’s already out and public.

  • First Round: No. 22 overall—RC Robert Thomas, London Knights (OHL). Brock Otten, OHL Prospects: He’s deceptively quick and extremely effective off the rush, where his elusiveness is combined with his vision and creativity. He’s far from a perimeter player who thrives in traffic areas despite not possessing elite size or strength. He especially excels on the powerplay, where his vision and passing ability is put on full display. Just makes great decisions with the puck in the offensive end. The only real criticism is that he needs to shoot more. Source
  • Third Round: No. 82 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)—RC Morgan Geekie, Tri-City Americans (WHL). C w/2-way rep and emerging offense. This is his second year of eligibility but his spike offensively (90 points from 25 a year ago). He’s not as dynamic as many I ranked above him (No. 30 on my list) but he really stepped forward this year.
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall—LC Evan Barratt, USNDTP (USHL). Small finesse center with skill. He may be a bit of a tweener but is a smart player and has plenty of room to grow. I have him ranked No. 43 overall.
  • Fourth Round: No. 115 overallF Andrey Altybarmakyan, St.Petersburg (MHL).  The math is strong on this one. Not much scouting but there is some video.
  • Fifth Round: No. 126 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen)—L Zach Gallant, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Brock Otten, OHL Prospects: One of the toughest defensive forwards in the OHL, in addition to being one of the league’s premier body checkers and faceoff men. He’s no slouch offensively either. Has very good hands in close and he has good vision off the cycle, creating through patience and strength in puck protection. If he can improve his shot and improve his ability to play in transition (carrying/receiving a top speed), he could definitely be a quality 2nd/3rd line player at the next level. And if his offensive game stagnates, you’ve still got a prospect who profiles as a top notch defensive center and penalty killer if he continues to upgrade his skating ability. There’s a lot of current Leaf Leo Komarov in Gallant’s game. Source
  • Fifth Round: No. 146 overallL Jacob Tortora, USNDTP (USHL). He is a burner and he is skilled and he is small.
  • Sixth Round: No. 177 overall—C Kevin Hancock, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Brock Otten, OHL Prospects: His 85 points was the 6th most of any U19 player in the league this year, better than Michael McLeod. Of course, a great deal of Hancock’s success can be attributed to the chemistry that he developed with Nick Suzuki and Jonah Gadjovich, giving Owen Sound one of the league’s best lines. But that shouldn’t take anything away from the progression Hancock showed this year. He’s one of the top two-way forwards in the OHL (was named the 2nd best defensive forward in the Western Conference in the annual Coaches Poll) and brings a lot of versatility to the lineup by being able to play any forward position. Hancock doesn’t possess elite size or skating ability, but his hockey sense is fantastic and allows him to be a factor in all facets of the game. Source
  • Seventh Round: No. 208 overall—R Emil Oksanen, Espoo (Mestis). Skilled winger, great shot, he can scoot.

That’s a lot of forwards and some of them are overagers. If the Oilers draft all forwards, and stay on skill, they should be able to identify a couple of keepers.

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60 Responses to "TRADING NO. 22 OVERALL"

  1. Rondo says:

    My 3 picks for today’s mock draft.

    #22- Joshua Norris

    #82 Robin Salo

    #115 Santeri Virtanen

    http://lastwordonsports.com/2017/05/04/josh-norris-scouting-report-2017-nhl-draft-35/

  2. John Chambers says:

    LT – can you elucidate your thought that Chiarelli would offer McPhee our young Reinhart IF they selected Pouliot?

    Isn’t Reinhart likely to be available to Las Vegas without that baggage?

  3. Scungilli Slushy says:

    No. 22 overall: Maybe this is the one asset that can get a deal done. Would Las Vegas grab one of those Florida defensemen in exchange? Mark Pysyk? Alex Petrovic?

    ———————

    If Jeff Petry and Justin Schultz gets the Oilers nothing and they trade ‘another’ first round pick for a bland defenseman my head will explode.

    Why can’t we be the guys who get a first for a decent player that isn’t worth that much.

  4. Diablo says:

    John Chambers:
    LT – can you elucidate your thought that Chiarelli would offer McPhee our young Reinhart IF they selected Pouliot?

    Isn’t Reinhart likely to be available to Las Vegas without that baggage?

    I think the idea he’s trying to get across is that it is not a given that LV has their sights set on Reinhart over some the other unprotected assets such as Khaira or Brossoit – we all assume that’s the case, but as several others have pointed out, there are better D-men likely to be available to them.

    Pouliot could have value to LV, as a guy who can play on one of their top 2 lines and both special teams. So if you’re LV and you’re trying to decide which one of the decidedly mediocre players to choose off Edmonton’s unprotected list, an option to get 2 players (or some other asset, like a draft pick) may hold some appeal.

  5. Diablo says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    No. 22 overall: Maybe this is the one asset that can get a deal done. Would Las Vegas grab one of those Florida defensemen in exchange? Mark Pysyk? Alex Petrovic?

    ———————

    If Jeff Petry and Justin Schultz gets the Oilers nothing and they trade ‘another’ first round pick for a bland defenseman my head will explode.

    Why can’t we be the guys who get a first for a decent player that isn’t worth that much.

    A deal like that would likely be attached to another condition involving the expansion draft – taking one of Pouliot or Fayne instead of Reinhart/Khaira/Brossoit.

  6. Brantford Boy says:

    I’ve been wondering about the ‘actual’ value of the #22 overall. If it would get you Mark Pysyk or Alex Petrovic straight up would it get Hamonic straight up? Possibly the difference being RFA versus signed for 3 more years? If there was an ‘add’ to the #22 what would it look like, Caleb Jones? I think many people assume Ebere in a 1 for 1, just curious if its possibly to use the #22 and something and keep Eberle. I know we won’t fleece Snow, so what is realistic here?

    After reading Kevin Hancock bio, I had to double check he was your 177 pick, crazy… sounds to me like he could go 3rd round never mind 6th.

  7. Ducey says:

    22 is exactly what the Oilers need- a top end F that is cost controlable. They won’t be trading it.

  8. Dino says:

    Robert Thomas is one heck of a player. Very underrated but very fast and skilled and creative. If they can pick one of Suzuki, Yamamoto, Thomas or Lind I’ll be pleased with the draft.

  9. Primetime says:

    Briefly back to the Letestu vs. Khaira protection debate. For those who believe Vegas would be interested in using an expansion pick on a older center with 1 year left on his contract:

    “We’ll be looking for younger players and people who will be with us three to four years from now.”

    From George McPhee. Protect Khaira.

  10. Ducey says:

    Primetime:
    Briefly back to the Letestu vs. Khaira protection debate.For those who believe Vegas would be interested in using an expansion pick on a older center with 1 year left on his contract:

    “We’ll be looking for younger players and people who will be with us three to four years from now.”

    From George McPhee.Protect Khaira.

    Vegas can just trade anyone they get. Letestu has more value than Kharia. Plus Kharia looks like a bubble player. I don’t think McPhee is going to spend picks on what would be his 12th F. He will want picks and prospects that he projects​ in his lineup in 3-4 yrs.

    Finally, when has a good GM said what he is going to do? It could just be a misdirection.

    The Oilers need to do what is best for them. That’s to keep Letestu.

  11. digger50 says:

    I’m on record for moving #22 as I believe it has extra value this year.

    But in regards to the draft, I’m wondering who the next Taresenko might be? Has to be decent size and fast. Yamamoto will be available but it is more risky trying to find the next Johnny G. So good size, fast, battle hard, lots of upside, and relatively unknown or at least lesser known prospect.

    Lots of good talk about Robert Thomas and he should be available. Think you had him about 15 on your list LT.

    Lots of assumptions Oilers take Ratcliffe.

    What about Vasalainen? Seems to fit the bill.

    What if Liljegrin continues to drop? Wonder if that changes Oilers target to d man.

  12. murphy says:

    #22, a prospect d not named jones or bear, a5th & poo for tyson barrie

  13. digger50 says:

    Diablo: I think the idea he’s trying to get across is that it is not a given that LV has their sights set on Reinhart over some the other unprotected assets such as Khaira or Brossoit – we all assume that’s the case, but as several others have pointed out, there are better D-men likely to be available to them.

    Pouliot could have value to LV, as a guy who can play on one of their top 2 lines and both special teams. So if you’re LV and you’re trying to decide which one of the decidedly mediocre players to choose off Edmonton’s unprotected list, an option to get 2 players (or some other asset, like a draft pick) may hold some appeal.

    Diablo: I think the idea he’s trying to get across is that it is not a given that LV has their sights set on Reinhart over some the other unprotected assets such as Khaira or Brossoit – we all assume that’s the case, but as several others have pointed out, there are better D-men likely to be available to them.

    Pouliot could have value to LV, as a guy who can play on one of their top 2 lines and both special teams. So if you’re LV and you’re trying to decide which one of the decidedly mediocre players to choose off Edmonton’s unprotected list, an option to get 2 players (or some other asset, like a draft pick) may hold some appeal.

    Pouliot plus a third rounder, that could work.

    Maybe Peter is way ahead of us, starting when he went off the board to pick young McPhee last draft.

  14. jtblack says:

    Ducey,

    I agree with this. in the Cap world a high end prospect is even more valuable, because if they make it you usually get an impact player at a relatively cheap cost (McD, Dria, Nurse) …

    The sooner we start trading 1st rounders, the sooner we will be in Cap hell … The 2015 offload of #16 & #33 are affecting us now. We would have two trade assets, possible roster players for the upcoming season or just 2 strong prospects in our system, which is weak as LT says.

    So keeping #22 is a must.

  15. Rondo says:

    jtblack:
    Ducey,

    I agree with this.in the Cap world a high end prospect is even more valuable, because if they make it you usually get an impact player at a relatively cheap cost (McD, Dria, Nurse) …

    The sooner we start trading 1st rounders, the sooner we will be in Cap hell … The 2015 offload of #16 & #33 are affecting us now. We would have two trade assets, possible roster players for the upcoming season or just 2 strong prospects in our system, which is weak as LT says.

    So keeping #22 is a must.

    Totally agree.

  16. godot10 says:

    Primetime:
    Briefly back to the Letestu vs. Khaira protection debate.For those who believe Vegas would be interested in using an expansion pick on a older center with 1 year left on his contract:

    “We’ll be looking for younger players and people who will be with us three to four years from now.”

    From George McPhee.Protect Khaira.

    The injury to Sekera means the Oilers probably would prefer not to lose Reinhart in the expansion draft, so they might leave Khaira unprotected to give Las Vegas another good option.

    Hence the Pakarinen signing, to allow the option of protecting Letestu.

  17. digger50 says:

    jtblack:
    Ducey,

    I agree with this.in the Cap world a high end prospect is even more valuable, because if they make it you usually get an impact player at a relatively cheap cost (McD, Dria, Nurse) …

    The sooner we start trading 1st rounders, the sooner we will be in Cap hell … The 2015 offload of #16 & #33 are affecting us now. We would have two trade assets, possible roster players for the upcoming season or just 2 strong prospects in our system, which is weak as LT says.

    So keeping #22 is a must.

    Would you trade #22 for Hamonic?

  18. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Diablo: A deal like that would likely be attached to another condition involving the expansion draft – taking one of Pouliot or Fayne instead of Reinhart/Khaira/Brossoit.

    One hopes😳

  19. jtblack says:

    digger50,

    I would not. One of the reasons I stated above is that by trading #22 you lose the cheap, impactful player. – If they make it.

    Hamonic is solid and at a decent cap hit, but bringing him in gurantees, Ebs or RNH out …. which may happen anyway ..

    Now as LT says, everything is a tradeable asset. I just don’t think Hamonic is enough for me to Trade #22.

    #22 as part of a Justin Faulk package? maybe. My point is I believe the Oilers need a Top end RHD for offense. Hamonic does not bring enough offense to trade the asset.

  20. jtblack says:

    digger50,

    Hamonic has 2 more years at $3.8 mil, then will be UFA and most likely get around $5.5 – $6 per…

    The risk is trading for him and then not being able to resign him … If you don’t resign him, then #22 is ridic expensive price for 2 years. ..

    If you do resign him he is a drag on the cap for sure ….

    hamonic has never scored more than 5 Goals in a season. We have Larsson already .. we do not need LArsson 2.0

  21. Brantford Boy says:

    jtblack,

    I would, its kind of what I was posting earlier. I understand your point about cheap, impactful players but is Hamonic not that player? In an area of weakness – RHD and a proven player for another 3 years, sounds pretty cheap and impactful to me… and I’m not sure why you said Ebs/Nuge must go (this year I’m assuming) with the #22 going out you can keep both those players unless something else transpires. Sadly, I doubt just the #22 gets it done, so what else would Snow want?

  22. Glass says:

    Dino,

    100% agree. I think Thomas would be an absolute steal.

  23. Brantford Boy says:

    jtblack,

    Definitely disagree now… please sign me up for Larsson 2.0. He has 3 years left not 2 which is even better. He solves the righty/lefty equation when Sekera returns and more to the righty/lefty I like how TMac deploys the stay at home D with the wheeling D on the same pair. Sadly (again) we already have this player in our system and are paying him well – Fayne, whom I also like, unfortunately his boots are too slow and he has lost trust from the coaching (and probably management) staff.

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Hamonic
    Nurse-Benning

    Sign me up!

  24. Diablo says:

    jtblack:
    digger50,

    Hamonic has 2 more years at $3.8 mil, then will be UFA and most likely get around $5.5 – $6 per…

    The risk is trading for him and then not being able to resign him … If you don’t resign him, then #22 is ridic expensive price for 2 years. ..

    If you do resign him he is a drag on the cap for sure ….

    hamonic has never scored more than 5 Goals in a season. We have Larsson already .. we do not need LArsson 2.0

    Hamonic has 3 years left on his deal. By the time it runs out, Benning will be a 4 year pro, and Bear may be ready to make the jump.

    And I’d LOVE to be able to clone Larsson and put him out on 2 pairings – 45 minutes of calm ice per game.

    Now I don’t watch the Isles, so I don’t know whether Hamonic is as good as Larsson, but if he is, then a low first round pick in an average to lacklustre draft year for a top 4 RHD is a deal that I want to Chia make.

    Don’t over-rate the power of magic beans.

    And stop lusting after those mystical creatures known as offensive RHD – they cost too much in terms of cap dollars and the assets that need to be sent out in order to acquire one.

  25. Diablo says:

    Brantford Boy:
    jtblack,

    I would, its kind of what I was posting earlier.I understand your point about cheap, impactful players but is Hamonic not that player?In an area of weakness – RHD and a proven player for another 3 years, sounds pretty cheap and impactful to me… and I’m not sure why you said Ebs/Nuge must go (this year I’m assuming) with the #22 going out you can keep both those players unless something else transpires.Sadly, I doubt just the #22 gets it done, so what else would Snow want?

    Eberle, and #22 for Hamonic, #15 + a contract dump (Kulemin, Grabovski or Halak)

  26. McNuge93 says:

    Harmonic for the 22 would upgrade our D significantly. And we would save $$ by not needing to sign Russell. But I just don’t see the Islanders making this trade.

  27. Centre of attention says:

    Anyone catch Pat Brission commenting on Galchenyuks situation in Montreal with sportsnet? (link: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/agent-canadiens-alex-galchenyuk-open-one-year-deal-arbitration/)
    When and agent goes to a major media outlet and says “Yup, we’re ready for arbitration” you kind of get the feel maybe things aren’t going well.

    I mentioned Galchenyuk as a darkhorse candidate for a top 9 addition. Its a real stretch to say he lands in Edmonton but if I was Chiarelli I make that call. Galchenyuk has an elite wrist shot and should be a constant 30 goal threat if given the minutes he deserves. (has played a lot of 3rd line minutes in montreal, thus the agents comments above)

    Also as a side note its interesting that a big time agent like Pat believes a lot of moves will happen after the draft, not before it. Brission mentions that while discussing his client.

  28. Diablo says:

    McNuge93:
    Harmonic for the 22 would upgrade our D significantly. And we would save $$ by not needing to sign Russell. But I just don’t see the Islanders making this trade.

    They stand to lose one of DeHaan or Hamonic in expansion – normally, no the value of the #22 pick would not be enough to get Hamonic …. but when you’re going to lose the player for nothing, #22 may represent the best that you can get for him.

    If the Isles were alone on an island with this problem, then they could auction him off for more. But there’s also Demers in Florida, and Vatanen in Anaheim … a lot of RHD coming on the market at the same time is going to depress the value a bit … that’s why there is so much speculation.

    Plus, Shattenkirk is available as a UFA, and is well known to prefer signing in NY … moving out Hamonic would improve the Isles ability to fit Shattenkirk under the cap, and open up the 2nd pairing RHD position for him as well.

    I could also see the Isles trading Hamonic to NJ for Kovalchuk … except that they’re in the same division. I’ve never thought that should stop teams from doing deals to address obvious needs, but historically it has. For that reason, I suspect the Isles would prefer to move Hamonic out West if they deal him.

  29. jtblack says:

    Diablo,

    All points are good. 3 yrs makes a difference. Donyou think that D would be “Cup Worthy”? ….

    I eould not be upset if we get Hamonic. I would prefer to do it AND kepp #22

  30. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Hamonic isn’t currently good enough for a first. 2nd round pick, no offense, questionable health, declining stats. For Eberle straight up, the cap making up for the overpay.

  31. Centre of attention says:

    Also, I mentioned Nichushkin as a potential trade target (RW/LW, Big, Shooter, Skater, Big)

    I did a little more reading and it turns out that Dallas could lose Nichushkins rights to Vegas if they don’t protect them.

    From NHL.com
    “The Stars, who retain Nichushkin’s NHL rights until he can become an unrestricted free agent at age 27, would need to protect those rights in the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft. If they leave him unprotected, the Vegas Golden Knights could select him even if he decides to play in the KHL for another season.”

    Quite the sticky wicket for Dallas who are already losing some of their most important top 9 wingers to FA in the next month or so with few clear replacements in sight. (They also dealt Eaves at the deadline, who was their first line RW)

    Again, a long shot that Nuke ends up in Edmonton but I’m just putting this out here because it’s that time of year 🙂

  32. jtblack says:

    jtblack,

    IE: Eberle & Bear for Strome & Hamonic

  33. jtblack says:

    I think we all know PC has to bring in a RHD. I Just dont want the future mortgaged already. MCD and Drai have 8 years to win. We need more players to be drafted and develops through our system that will contribute to Future Stanley Cups

  34. Diablo says:

    Centre of attention:
    Anyone catch Pat Brission commenting on Galchenyuks situation in Montreal with sportsnet? (link: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/agent-canadiens-alex-galchenyuk-open-one-year-deal-arbitration/)
    When and agent goes to a major media outlet and says “Yup, we’re ready for arbitration” you kind of get the feel maybe things aren’t going well.

    I mentioned Galchenyuk as a darkhorse candidate for a top 9 addition. Its a real stretch to say he lands in Edmonton but if I was Chiarelli I make that call. Galchenyuk has an elite wrist shot and should be a constant 30 goal threat if given the minutes he deserves. (has played a lot of 3rd line minutes in montreal, thus the agents comments above)

    Also as a side note its interesting that a big time agent like Pat believes a lot of moves will happen after the draft, not before it. Brission mentions that while discussing his client.

    The Habs want a centre it seems …. I suspect they would ask for Nuge in return.
    I can see why the Habs would make that deal, but it doesn’t seem like Chia is in a hurry to move RNH.

    So many possibilities this summer ….

  35. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Centre of attention:
    Anyone catch Pat Brission commenting on Galchenyuks situation in Montreal with sportsnet? (link: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/agent-canadiens-alex-galchenyuk-open-one-year-deal-arbitration/)
    When and agent goes to a major media outlet and says “Yup, we’re ready for arbitration” you kind of get the feel maybe things aren’t going well.

    I mentioned Galchenyuk as a darkhorse candidate for a top 9 addition. Its a real stretch to say he lands in Edmonton but if I was Chiarelli I make that call. Galchenyuk has an elite wrist shot and should be a constant 30 goal threat if given the minutes he deserves. (has played a lot of 3rd line minutes in montreal, thus the agents comments above)

    Also as a side note its interesting that a big time agent like Pat believes a lot of moves will happen after the draft, not before it. Brission mentions that while discussing his client.

    A buddy is a Habs fan, and the things he says about what goes on with that team’s youth make me say pass. We don’t gossip right, but it is still truth some teams are pretty notorious for off ice behavior, media searches are part of what teams do to background players, things get out when they are consistent and too much. There isn’t space for that lifestyle anymore because of the level of fitness required to play.

    Galchenyuk living like top players do now – clean and sober often even in the off season – sure. The guy that got Smith Pelly traded, no.

  36. season not played says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    No. 22 overall: Maybe this is the one asset that can get a deal done. Would Las Vegas grab one of those Florida defensemen in exchange? Mark Pysyk? Alex Petrovic?

    ———————

    If Jeff Petry and Justin Schultz gets the Oilers nothing and they trade ‘another’ first round pick for a bland defenseman my head will explode.

    Why can’t we be the guys who get a first for a decent player that isn’t worth that much.

    David Perron

    Unfortunately, instead of Kyle Conner, Joel Eriksson EK, Ilya Samsonov or Evgeny Svechnikov the Oilers have Griffen Reinhart to show for one of those players and say, Brandon Carlo.

    Still grinding myself into a fine white powder over this one.

  37. PerryK says:

    Diablo: Eberle, and #22 for Hamonic, #15 + a contract dump (Kulemin, Grabovski or Halak)

    I like this trade proposal (Grabovski has concussion so Kulemin or Halak)! This maybe a unicorn though! 🙂 If Snow can be snowed this way, let it happen.

  38. Diablo says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Hamonic isn’t currently good enough for a first. 2nd round pick, no offense, questionable health, declining stats. For Eberle straight up, the cap making up for the overpay.

    Based on Dreger’s speculation, I wonder if that is one of the “deals on the table”.

    Then the question is why hasn’t Chia accepted it?
    I suspect the Isles are attaching a contract dump to the negotiations – Kulemin, Grabovski, Halak – or asking the Oilers to eat some of Eberle’s salary.

    They probably would like to clear up cap space to take a run at signing Shattenkirk, and would like the Oilers help in doing so.

    Chia might be waiting them out to see if he can squeeze them for more.

    Alternative the Isles could just expose Hamonic in expansion, and buy out some guys to create the necessary cap space … but that’s a worse option in the long run.

  39. N64 says:

    John Chambers:
    LT – can you elucidate your thought that Chiarelli would offer McPhee our young Reinhart IF they selected Pouliot?

    Isn’t Reinhart likely to be available to Las Vegas without that baggage?

    If Reinhart is preferred by Vegas then isn’t this equivalent to any team claiming Pouliot on waivers? If Vegas does not prefer Reinhart that’s assigning even more value to Pouliot.

  40. Diablo says:

    PerryK: I like this trade proposal (Grabovski has concussion so Kulemin or Halak)!This maybe a unicorn though! 🙂If Snow can be snowed this way, let it happen.

    Perhaps there is a game of “chicken” going on between Chia and Snow. Chia may be laying the groundwork for a deal by …
    – stating that they would protect 7-3-1
    – talking up Ebs dedication to improving, and his value to the team
    – talking up Russell like its a foregone conclusion that they will resign him
    – stating that they have a year to put their cap situation in order

    All of this verbal is starting to feel like posturing in order to improve negotiating position.

    Perhaps I’m giving our GM too much credit …. but he often says one thing and then does something completely different.

  41. N64 says:

    McPhee is on record as wanting some deals done before the lists are submitted. Would not be surprised to see Chia in a 3 way deal with Vegas where Reinhart stays.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    There are some things to like about Strome (offensive potential, etc.) but if we are looking for him to be our 3C lets not forget that I think he is just as bad, if not worse, than Nuge on faceoffs.

    Also, he received essentially no PK time last year so that’s currently not a skill of his.

    I don’t want to overvalue what Strome would bring as a potential 3C.

  43. Diablo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    There are some things to like about Strome (offensive potential, etc.) but if we are looking for him to be our 3C lets not forget that I think he is just as bad, if not worse, than Nuge on faceoffs.

    Also, he received essentially no PK time last year so that’s currently not a skill of his.

    I don’t want to overvalue what Strome would bring as a potential 3C.

    Yep he’s about as much of a centre as Sam Gagner was … which is to say he’s a RW long term.

  44. Centre of attention says:

    Jason Brough‏ @JasonPHT 6m6 minutes ago
    More
    Laviolette says to ignore analytics would be “not wise.”

    “You’d be crazy not to use that information.”

    Coach in Stanley cup final calls anti-corsi crowd “not wise, crazy” my column:

  45. Thinker says:

    I think we get stubborn on guys here. How confident are we in Hamonic?

  46. Mesmer says:

    Just an idea I would like to get peoples opinion on, especially you LT. What would it take to get Dallas” third overall? Would the 22nd and Ebs be enough? Would it be too much? Would the Oilers have to/ be willing to take one of their goalies in the deal as a salary dump? Who would Chiarelli like enough to do this deal, and who would be available that we like to fill the void left by Ebs? Is it something we should be thinking about?
    I honestly don’t know any of these answers, I have too much bias to properly weight the deal, and perhaps not enough history with trades at the draft to comprehend the value of a third. I have heard that the pick may be available.

  47. Centre of attention says:

    Аrpon Basu‏ @ArponBasu 26m26 minutes ago
    More
    “He’s a pretty firm believer in that kind of stuff. I guess, you really can’t make up stats” – Ryan Ellis on Laviolette’s use of analytics.

    Local analytic darling Ryan Ellis says you can’t just make up stats. Somewhere, a corgi got its wings.

  48. Diablo says:

    Getting back on track ….

    I decided to look at what the Penguins have done with their first round picks since they drafted Sid in 2005:
    – 2006: Jordan Staal (2nd overall) – traded to Carolina due to cap constraints after winning 1 Stanley
    – 2007: Angelo Esposito (#20) – traded in a package for Marian Hossa and Pascal Dupuis. Smaller player with big time stats in juniors who NEVER played a game in the NHL
    – 2008: Daultan Leveille (#29) – Also part of the Hossa deal; college man who NEVER played a game in the NHL
    – 2009: Simon Despres (#30) – traded for Ben Lovejoy; played 193 games in the NHL but concussions may have ended his career
    – 2010: Beau Bennett (#20) – has played 194 games in the NHL; most-overhyped player in fantasy hockey ever
    – 2011: Joe Morrow (#23) – traded for Brendan Morrow and a 3rd round pick (Jake Guentzel) – now in his 3rd organization, has played 65 games in the NHL and is expansion fodder now
    – 2012: Derrick Pouliot (#8) – part of the Staal trade; has played 67 games in the NHL, and is also expansion fodder, having failed to establish himself on the bottom pairing of Pittsburg’s D
    – 2012: Olli Matta (#22) – a solid 2nd pairing LHD
    – 2013: Morgan Klimchuk (#28) – traded in a package for Jerome Iginla – in his draft +4 year, he has yet to play an NHL game
    – 2014: Kaperi Kapanen (#22) – traded in a package for Phil Kessel; 17 games in the NHL with 1 goal and 0 assists in his draft +3 season; some good numbers in the minors
    -2015: Matthew Barzal (#16) – traded for David Perron – smaller player but big time junior scorer; too early to tell whether he becomes anything
    – 2016: Sam Steele (#30) – also part of the Kessel deal; too early to tell if he becomes anything

    So since Sidney Crosby was drafted, the Pens have had 12 1st round picks in their possession
    – Staal was drafted 2nd overall; Oilers have a comparable player in Jesse Puljujarvi
    – after that they would only have 1 other pick in the top 10 (D. Pouliot), acquired via the Staal trade, and who so far looks like a bust
    – the only other player drafted in the 1st round that continues to play with the Pens is Matta – a solid top 4 LHD
    – they’ve traded all the rest of their 1st round picks away
    – not a single one of those 1st round picks that they traded away became a top 6 forward or a top 4 D
    – had they held on to them, not a single one of those 1st round picks would have helped them in any meaningful way; and yet the Pens have remained in the hunt as a contender since 2005
    – they’ve won 4 pennants, 2 Stanley Cups and are 2 wins away from a third Stanley Cup

    Now one might be tempted to interpret from this that their scouts suck – and yet they’ve found good players like Guentzal, Rust, Sheary and Murray in later rounds or as undrafted FAs.

    After the first 5-10 picks in any draft, it’s just a complete crapshoot – those first round picks in the 20’s are just magic beans; there is absolutely no guarantee that you’re going to pick a player who’s going to help you win during the duration of their ELC.

    If you have the opportunity to turn that uncertainty into a top 4 RHD like Hamonic, with a team friendly contract, you make that deal every damn day, and twice on Sunday.

  49. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention:
    Аrpon Basu‏ @ArponBasu26m26 minutes ago
    More“He’s a pretty firm believer in that kind of stuff. I guess, you really can’t make up stats” – Ryan Ellis on Laviolette’s use of analytics.

    Local analytic darling Ryan Ellis says you can’t just make up stats. Somewhere, a corgi got its wings.

    Well, you sort of can. And the truth can indeed lie…

  50. --hudson-- says:

    Diablo,

    Great post! Thanks for doing that. One takeaway is you can absolutely be successful with little to no luck in the first round if you make up for it in later rounds, with trades or free agency. It would be really interesting to see an analysis of all the teams and see how they made out in comparison. (maybe it’s done and I’m too lazy to find it.)

    For the Oilers, it’s awesome having the key pieces in place, we just need good drafting and development now. Not necessarily best in the league but we can’t have the Kevin Prendergast or Barry Fraser years again.

    In some ways we are punished being in the same division as a few teams that are very good at drafting and appear to be popular UFA destinations.

  51. Lowetide says:

    Please please please refrain from posting about the personal lives of players. Thanks.

  52. Diablo says:

    –hudson–:
    Diablo,

    Great post!Thanks for doing that.One takeaway is you can absolutely be successful with little to no luck in the first round if you make up for it in later rounds, with trades or free agency.It would be really interesting to see an analysis of all the teams and see how they made out in comparison.(maybe it’s done and I’m too lazy to find it.)

    For the Oilers, it’s awesome having the key pieces in place, we just need good drafting and development now.Not necessarily best in the league but we can’t have the Kevin Prendergast or Barry Fraser years again.

    In some ways we are punished being in the same division as a few teams that are very good at drafting and appear to be popular UFA destinations.

    Just to clarify – I don’t want the take away from this analysis to be that “the draft is not important”. That’s not what I’m saying at all – you need to select and then develop good players in those later rounds, like the Pens have done – that’s where you get your home grown talent from.

    What I think is instructive from this analysis is that 1st round picks (after the first 5-10) are a real crap-shoot – the likelihood of getting a player who is going to help you before their ELC runs out (i.e. when they’re cheap) is really low.

    There is an extreme over-emphasis on these first round picks on draft day – every one of them gets compared to a superstar, and then everyone one of them gets hyped up by their fanbase for the next couple of seasons, BUT precious few of them have an NHL career.

    This is a market imbalance – the perceived worth of these picks is way higher than their actual worth on average (especially on draft day). Getting an Eberle or Pastrnak with a pick in the 20’s is the exception, not the rule.

    I wish they would increase the draft age to 20 years – the kids could get some eduction and the teams would have a much better idea of what these kids are going to be. You’d need to have some sort of “exceptional status” provision, but if major junior leagues can figure it out, why can’t the NHL?

  53. jtblack says:

    Diablo,

    Do the same for Washington. There 1st round record is much stronger. interesting.

    I do agree the Draft is a crap shoot, but it is also the place to mine, develop and build a long term Championship squad. Anaheim built a franchise around a #19 & #30 picks in 2003. St.Louis got Tarasenko and Schwartz @ #14 and #16 in 2010 draft. It might be Cherry Picking, but the point is if you trade the pick away you only settle for what is known, and lose all the upside.

    I am not saying one way is right or wrong, but I would prefer if we are going to move 1st round picks, that starts in 3 – 5 years if it has to … This team is still raw and young and 1 year removed from 29th place … I didn’t like the Reinhart trade at the time and don’t like the idea of moving picks now. As for the Reinhart deal, take Reinhart out of it; I just didn’t like the GM moving #16 & #33 in a strong draft. We may have got 2 duds with those picks or we may have to got players that are in the McDavid cluster and could be high end …

    LT has profiled so many good players in the #22 range. Again, may not pan out, but why not Take a Kole Lind who can skate, score and has nhl size and he see if he can be a Top 6 player in a few years.

  54. jtblack says:

    Diablo,

    Also, go back 10 yrs and go through picks #20 – #40, there are many great players and lots of good ones …

    Some site has the % breakdown. IE: if you are picked in the #20 – #25 slot your odds of being a Top 6F or Top 4D are xx%. And yes, it’s like 25% ….

    some guy named Klefbom was a #19 pick … Lucic #50. Maroon Rd 6. Sekera #71. Russell #67. Mixed in with all the #1 – #15 picks and Voila. Top Ten team.

    B Gretzky needs to deliver value in the #20 – #80 range for the next 5 years.

    But I think a Quality Scouting Staff, combined with many picks = mining players year after year …

    Also, If I was the scouting staff and my GM traded the 1st round pick every year, it would frustrate me …

  55. --hudson-- says:

    Diablo: Just to clarify – I don’t want the take away from this analysis to be that “the draft is not important”. That’s not what I’m saying at all – you need to select and then develop good players in those later rounds, like the Pens have done – that’s where you get your home grown talent from.

    What I think is instructive from this analysis is that 1st round picks (after the first 5-10) are a real crap-shoot – the likelihood of getting a player who is going to help you before their ELC runs out (i.e. when they’re cheap) is really low.

    There is an extreme over-emphasis on these first round picks on draft day – every one of them gets compared to a superstar, and then everyone one of them gets hyped up by their fanbase for the next couple of seasons, BUT precious few of them have an NHL career.

    This is a market imbalance – the perceived worth of these picks is way higher than their actual worth on average (especially on draft day). Getting an Eberle or Pastrnak with a pick in the 20’s is the exception, not the rule.

    I wish they would increase the draft age to 20 years – the kids could get some eduction and the teams would have a much better idea of what these kids are going to be. You’d need to have some sort of “exceptional status” provision, but if major junior leagues can figure it out, why can’t the NHL?

    Yes you were clear to me, and I agree the draft is important. As an Oiler fan you post gave me a bit of relief considering how many first round picks I feel we have squandered (particularly with the Reinhart and Yakupov trades).

    Also agree with you the perceived value of the picks seems higher than the player you will actually get. I remember the sentiment for easy trade value used to be – sell marginal players on deadline day for high picks, sell low picks on draft day for NHL players.

    If you are not aware of the NBA draft age, you may be interested in a conversation they are currently having. About 10 years ago they raised the minimum draft age from 18 to 19. As little as a year ago the commish was talking about raising it to 20. Three days ago he announced he would like to see it lowered back to 18. Too many kids were going to college for one year with no intention of continuing their education (one and done), causing recruitment chaos for the schools. The NBA teams also feel the players aren’t getting the training they need.

    I haven’t had time to dig too far in it yet, but this link can give you some background if you are interested: http://www.nba.com/article/2017/06/01/changes-coming-nba-commissioner-adam-silver-wants-draft-rules-amended

    The NBA draft is only 2 rounds and rosters only carry 13, so there is some differences in scale to consider. It will be interesting to see the direction the debate goes.

  56. N64 says:

    Diablo: You’d need to have some sort of “exceptional status” provision, but if major junior leagues can figure it out, why can’t the NHL?

    Enforce the higher age requirement with the last 16 picks of round 1 and beyond. If you aren’t picked in the top half of the 1st round you aren’t exceptional yet.

  57. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide:
    Please please please refrain from posting about the personal lives of players. Thanks.

    Sorry. I intended to be non specific and say only something that anyone can read in the MSM. It is a legit concern IMO.

  58. rickithebear says:

    Slushy, petry trade was what Mact had to complete to hold the talbot trade.
    Sather said no commitment by Mact, and no Mact retained by org.
    No Talbot.

    Petry helped us get the veteran talent needed.

    As for successful orgs.
    You retain your core.
    And dump when they become to expensive.
    You bring in young talent at cheap to fill roles that are to expensive.

    Clearly
    There is a commitment to
    Mcdavid and Draisatl
    Looking at last 2 years performances.

    Mcdavid at center has best wingers
    With mcdavids Evp60 and GoalDif60
    Caggulia RW above 3.50 EVP60. +2.50 GD60
    Draisatl RW 3.02. +1.16
    Maroon LW 2.92 +1.67
    Eberle RW 2.42 +.40
    Pouliot LW 2.94 -.37

    Maroon (PC) – Mcdavid (M) – Caggulia (M&B)

    Clearly draisatl at center is better use of cap cause caggulia slotted in well at RW.

    Draisatl at center
    Slepyshev RW 2.78 +2.15
    Purcell LW 2.71 +.49
    Kassian 2.62 Even
    Hall. 2.32. +.14

    XXX – Draisatl (M) – Slepyshev (M)

    These 5 Forwards are all in the top 40 Evg60 playoff forwards. .24 or better

    Lucic has 6 years left so clear core moving forward.
    Lucic at LW
    Puljujarvi RW 2.32. +2.00
    Mcdavid C 1.46. +1.33
    Eberle RW 1.25. +.72

    Lucic (P) – XXX – Puljujarvi (P)

    Slepyshev elite EVG playoff production.
    +ve goal dif with
    Lucic, Draisatl, Kassian, RNH, puljujarvi

    Kassian RW also an above average playoff evg60 forward.
    Mcdavid C 3.28 Even
    Maroon LW 2.82. +.96
    Caggulia C 2.00. +.46
    Pouliot LW 1.96. +.83
    Pakarinen LW 1.46. +1.91

    if eberle goes we have to replace a PVP RW
    Who generates
    76gm 17evg 20 eva 37 evp going pvp
    5ppg 7ppa

    If RNH goes we have to replace a PVP center who goes
    69gm 11 evg 17 eva 28 Evp
    5 evg 7 eva

  59. rickithebear says:

    Thinker:
    I think we get stubborn on guys here. How confident are we in Hamonic?

    He is utter shit!

  60. Ryan says:

    rickithebear: He is utter shit!

    How’s Kovalchuk?

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