LET’S GO ALREADY

I don’t know about you but it feels like the summer fun is past due. So, in the absence of actual deals, let’s see if we can make up a few that can at least start a conversation. First, let’s have a quick review.

PETER CHIARELLI’S NEEDS LIST

We are going to separate the priorities for now, as two main items (contracts for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl) are going to be part of July’s business. Since we are talking June events, I’m going to list only June priorities at this time.

  1. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future. (Iiro Pakarinen signing frees Letestu protection, leaves Jujhar Khaira likely exposed). 
  2. Find a way to trade Benoit Pouliot off the roster.
  3. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen.
  4. Find a stopgap measure to replace Andrej Sekera’s minutes until he returns.
  5. Find a C-R who can help the offense and cover off where Leon isn’t at the time.
  6. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline.

Fair? We’re going to set aside the two big contracts but let’s have a starting point before the trades go down. Here is a glimpse at the roster with Leon signed and the rest of the roster handled internally. We are going on a $77 million cap.

PROJECTED BARE BONES LINEUP 2016-17

As we have discussed before the Oilers don’t have to make a move until that move makes sense. There’s even more cap available if the club places Jesse Puljujarvi in the minors. I haven’t bought out Benoit Pouliot nor Mark Fayne, so there’s plenty of room to wheel. Looking at this roster, we can see why the needs above are noted. I am going on the premise that Griffin Reinhart is chosen in the expansion draft and that the offers for Jordan Eberle are well shy of acceptable. Let’s make some trades.

  1. Oilers trade Anton Slepyshev and 2018 third-round pick to Las Vegas for RHD Alex Petrovic (I’ll estimate his contract at $2M per season). I get it, Slepyshev has a lot going for him and could emerge as a 15-20 goal man in the right situation. You have to give in order to get, and the Oilers have Jesse Puljujarvi and Drake Caggiula who can play the wing. It’s an overpay, I get that too, but that jives with the Chiarelli style.
  2. Oilers sign Tyler Pitlick to a one-year, $900,000 deal. This serves as insurance in case Puljujarvi can’t make a go of it.
  3. Oilers sign Brian Campbell to a one-year, $3 million deal. I’m assuming this gets it done, possible Campbell gets more on the open market. As a one-year option, to replace Sekera until healthy, I like it. Gives the team some extra money to use during the summer, too.
  4. Oilers sign Justin Williams to a two-year, $8 million deal. I’m not sure of the price and it uses some 2018-19 cap, but this would be a helluva get in my opinion. I also considered Sam Gagner for this spot.

Before we post the final roster, let’s go back to the to-do list and see what we’ve done in what would become a fairly active summer.

PROJECTED IMPACT OF PROJECTED SOLUTIONS

  1. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future. (Griffin Reinhart is an acceptable loss). 
  2. Find a way to trade Benoit Pouliot off the roster. (Didn’t get this done, but I’m not that upset. Pouliot may recover and fetch a handsome return down the line). 
  3. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen. (I would be pleased to see Petrovic as the add, there are several out there this summer). 
  4. Find a stopgap measure to replace Andrej Sekera’s minutes until he returns. (Campbell is an excellent choice, no certainty he’d be willing to sign with Edmonton). 
  5. Find a C-R who can help the offense and cover off where Leon isn’t at the time. (Justin Williams doesn’t really fit, but he is such an outstanding potential addition I picked him over Gagner).
  6. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline. (Sekera’s LTIR does the trick here, getting him back on the roster might require a deadline flush of a superfluous veteran). 

PROJECTED ROSTER 2017-18

I like this roster and there are still ways to improve it. Sending down Jesse Puljujarvi, parking Mark Fayne in the minors, plenty of options available to improve things. One negative? If Leon moves to RW the team has no obvious center to fill. Perhaps you can find a better option (Joe Thornton?) and we’ll discuss.

PLENTY OF OFFERS FOR EBERLE

Rumors this morning about plenty of offers for Jordan Eberle, but that can be misleading. If I offer you ten cents on the dollar, that’s an offer but not a good one. Suspect Eberle is either moved for wildly disappointing return or that he remains in Edmonton for 2017-18.

 

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183 Responses to "LET’S GO ALREADY"

  1. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! Getting a vet D on a short deal plus another D who might fit in long-term is ideal.

    – You reflect perfectly this lull: Stanley Cup is too far into June (unless of course the OIL are in it!)

    – So I will keep posting this as I get responses: The Arm-Chair GM contest: winner gets a paypal contribution:

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
    9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
    10) Biggest off-season F acquired in terms of salary?:
    11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1?
    12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

    Please send in the following format. Entries eligible untill the first transaction and/or Vegas draft:

    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12

  2. John Chambers says:

    The Oilers IMO aren’t in a position to make a move (eg Eberle for a D) in advance of the expansion draft.

    The time to pounce on getting a RHD is right after the draft, and in all possibility in a deal with Vegas.

    Eg. Eberle to Vegas for Petrovic and Adam Lowry.

    That’s my guess on the major move of the summer.

  3. Brantford Boy says:

    I like the mock roster… mostly because of the veteran presence… with it, it fills the holes as well as provides the extra depth that is probably required to reach the next round of the playoffs where we fell short. This experience will be vital to the younger players in addition to the 13 games they played this year. Mr Williams = Clutch!

  4. Ducey says:

    Don’t like the Slepy trade. He showed a whole new gear in the playoffs. I’d keep him.

    Plus Vegas will be drowning in 3/4 defensemen. No need to overpay. Next years second rounder likely does it for Petrovic.

  5. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – And going back to last post re: luck involved in winning games. While its true, I think over the last 10 years, the Cup does identify generally the best team. Maybe not every year, but:

    Pitts x 3 (I’m assuming they win this Cup)
    CHI x 3
    L.A x 2
    Detroit (the last of their run)
    Anaheim: only 1 Cup but they were a great team
    Carolina: the “weakest” winner in last 10

    – With the Cap of course its really hard to keep the teams together, and they have to retool it seems every year to get under cap, but this is modern parity hockey IMO: good teams have a 8-10 year window to compete for multiple cups.

    – This is our window. With “luck” OIL were good enough this year to have won (read: variance)

  6. TO10801 says:

    John Chambers,

    I think post-expansion is the play as well, unless we are getting a F or expansion exempt D back. Vegas will have some interesting pieces so it might be worth it to wait and see what may shake loose after expansion than to rush it and get a lower return. THe oilers have a nice expansion list, no need to screw it up.

  7. N64 says:

    “Oilers trade Anton Slepyshev and 2018 third-round pick to Las Vegas for RHD Alex Petrovic (I’ll estimate his contract at $2M per season)….It’s an overpay, I get that too, but that jives with the Chiarelli style”

    LT, so if that’s an overpay surely Chia and McPhee add in that Vegas does not pick Khaira, Reinhart, or Brossoit. And Reinhart is the 7D next year not Fayne. Now that is Chiarelli style, right???

  8. dustrock says:

    Whoever it was that said most of the trades will come after the expansion draft, I think this is right.

    It’s going to be a crazy time, and I think GMs are going to sit back, watch the Nevada dust settle, and then figure out what to do next.

  9. TO10801 says:

    dustrock,

    That’s how its starting to sound. SOme teams will try to dump a contract on vegas (which may also happen post-expansion) and others will try to influence who Vegas picks. After that is when the trades will start to get interesting as teams don’t need to worry about their lists for expansion anymore.

  10. jtblack says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    2006
    2007
    2008
    2009
    2010
    2011
    2012
    2013
    2014
    2015
    2016
    2017

    = 12 Years 🙂

  11. who says:

    I can follow everything you do until we get to Justin Williams. If we are keeping Eberle I see no reason to sign Williams. He’s had a good career and scored some huge goals but he may never do this again and at his age he could fall off the cliff at any moment. Don’t get all the love for this player. Would prefer to find a younger cheaper center. Oilers need to look forward not backwards.

  12. Lowetide says:

    N64:
    “Oilers trade Anton Slepyshev and 2018 third-round pick to Las Vegas for RHD Alex Petrovic (I’ll estimate his contract at $2M per season)….It’s an overpay, I get that too, but that jives with the Chiarelli style”

    LT, so if that’s an overpay surely Chia and McPhee add in that Vegas does not pick Khaira, Reinhart, or Brossoit. And Reinhart is the 7D next year not Fayne. Now that is Chiarelli style, right???

    Makes sense.

  13. jtblack says:

    I think of all of LT”s move the 2 most pressing are finding 1 competent RD and 1 competent LD …

    Last year was the first year in forever that the Oilers iced a competitive Top 4 D … We require the same this year until Reg comes back …

    As far as the Forwards, it’s just a puzzle that will work itself out .. If Ebs stays, we can pencil in 20 G and 50 Pts … if he’s moved, we assume a decent asset is coming back to help the lineup somewhere (forward or D) …

    This looks to me like we have lots of cap space to ice a deep roster AND we will have $$ to play at the deadline … Can’t wait to see how it works out …

  14. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    I thought Slep played very well in the Playoffs. He can bang, crash, play Top 6 or bottom 6. I would not want to move him, especially if Eberle goes …

  15. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Can’t find it right now, but I believe Brian Campbell has said he’s either signing in Chicago or retiring FWIW.

  16. jtblack says:

    I hope PC brings in a 3C who is versatile … I think TMac will be switching Leon back and forth from McD’s wing to Centering his own line all year, just like he did in the Playoffs ..

    RNH will run as 2C most of the year … bring in a 3C like Ryan, Bonino, Boyle …

    Last year PC was supposed to bring in a competent Back Up Goalie and a veteran RW … he failed in both areas … so although we think bringing in some 3/4 D Men and a 3C should be doable, who knows?

    It’s an overpay, I get that too, but that jives with the Chiarelli style.- IF this “style” continues, PC will have the Oilers in Cap Hell with limited prospects in no time … I agree he has overpayed on some deals and found value on lesser deals … He needs to start “fleecing” other GM’s .. He is not in a position of desperation like he was at the start of his Oilers tenure, so there is no excuse for weak sauce returns on deals ..

  17. nvan97 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1 Reinhart
    2 Kole Lind
    3 Yes. + a 3rd for Slavin
    4 No
    5 Ellis
    6 10.5/3year
    7 52/5 years
    8 48/6 years
    9 Russell, Markov
    10 Hanzal
    11 Yes
    12 2

  18. The Amish Man says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Can’t find it right now, but I believe Brian Campbell has said he’s either signing in Chicago or retiring FWIW.

    I saw this too a while back and found the article. I would love Brian Campbell as a stop gap but seems like an unlikely scenario. http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2017/4/22/15394200/brian-campbell-blackhawks-or-retirement-2017-nhl-free-agency

  19. John Chambers says:

    jtblack,

    3C is, or should be, a major target area.

    That’s why Eberle to LV for a RD + 3C is the play.

    Pysyk and Sissons
    Petrovic and Lowry
    Pulock and Girgensons

    If the defenseman’s last name starts with P, we want him!

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jtblack:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    2006
    2007
    2008
    2009
    2010
    2011
    2012
    2013
    2014
    2015
    2016
    2017

    = 12 Years

    – Yeah I was debating not mentioning Carolina, and this year isn’t done: but I think looking back last 10-12 years, the Cup has identified the elite teams over that period (save Carolina)

  21. jtblack says:

    “Eberle is either moved for wildly disappointing return or that he remains in Edmonton for 2017-18”

    What is a “fair” return for Jordan Eberle?

    With complete Objectivity: Here is how I classify Eberle:

    Goals: he can score and has been in the Top 20 RW for last 3 years. In a Goal starved League, this has tremendous value
    Points: Good for 50 points in a down year. Pencil him in for 50 – 60 every year. Again, tremendous value
    Overall Play (Anaylytics): Smarter ppl can decifer exactly what he does or doesn’t do, but I Believe from all the posts on here that Eberle’s analytics are fairly good on a broad basis
    Overall Player (trying to think what other GM’s would say): Player would be considered below average defensively, below average physically (forecheck, body check), Average Skater, Average Shot, Above Average Goal and Point Producer.

    Cap Hit: $6 Million. Not Great. All Big ticket players are hard to move in the Cap World. And with Cap Dollars acting as true value, I think this hurts the possible return for Ebs

  22. jtblack says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I did touch on this before .. Is Parity an Illusion? if you look at the last 9 years it would suggest there is very little parity (Pitt, Chi, LA) own 8 of 9 if we give Pitt this year (Nashville might have something to say about this) …

    I think the parity lies in the regular season and early in the playoffs. Most teams have a chance to make the playoffs and it’s also very difficult for teams to make it year after year … Early rounds of playoffs can be a coin toss …

    But the Data seems to suggest, that at the end of the year, The Cream rises to the Top (at least for the last 9 years)…

  23. Klima's_Bucket says:

    John Chambers: If the defenseman’s last name starts with P, we want him!

    Even Polak?

  24. Ducey says:

    John Chambers:
    jtblack,

    3C is, or should be, a major target area.

    That’s why Eberle to LV for a RD + 3C is the play.

    Pysyk and Sissons
    Petrovic and Lowry
    Pulock and Girgensons

    If the defenseman’s last name starts with P, we want him!

    Imagine the joy around here if Chia fills a D spot with Adam Pelech, Greg Pateryn, Nate Prosser, or Dalton Prout

  25. Death By Misadventure says:

    Has anyone done an in depth stat breakdown on Pysyk and Petrovic?

    Both sound like interesting pickups, but on the surface they seem like less capable Matt Bennings. Petrovic especially seems like a younger version of Gryba and if that’s the case I hope Chia aims much higher.

    Again, I have no stats to prove my brain fart so would appreciate if someone could point me in the right direction as both players seem like genuinely potential pickups.

    Thanks.

  26. John Chambers says:

    @ Klima and Ducey

    You guys r quick on the draw

  27. Truth says:

    “Rumors this morning about plenty of offers for Jordan Eberle, but that can be misleading. If I offer you ten cents on the dollar, that’s an offer but not a good one. Suspect Eberle is either moved for wildly disappointing return or that he remains in Edmonton for 2017-18.”

    Exactly correct. Now would be the worst time to trade Eberle. You know he’s not happy about his playoff performance. My bet is he will be impressive next season, I just hope it’s for the Oilers.

  28. Truth says:

    I’m starting to think Vegas will select Khaira over Reinhart. Reinhart is the player we expect they pick because of his draft pedigree and the price the Oilers paid for him (so he should be the best available), but Khaira is a big, strong C who is trending in the right direction. Khaira could end up as a 4C, but also could be a 2C. Reinhart will never be more than a 5-6D, which Vegas should have no problem finding elsewhere.

  29. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Find a C-R who can help the offense and cover off where Leon isn’t at the time.

    ————-

    Ryan Nugent Hopkins can do that. So if there is no RHC to get that is top 6, find a C that is bottom 6 and use Nuge to switch with Leon. I think he’d be better than Eberle.

  30. jtblack says:

    John Chambers,

    “Petrovic and Lowry”: LT likes Petrovic. I know little about him. I think Lowry is an Excellent 3C. He’s young, huge, skates well and can contribute offensively. He’s on a good contract. No idea how he is on faceoffs

    Eberle for those 2. Hmmmmm ….. not sure about that..

  31. jtblack says:

    John Chambers,

    How about Paulk, Parrie, Poughty, Pamonic ……

  32. Walter Sobchak says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!Getting a vet D on a short deal plus another D who might fit in long-term is ideal.

    – You reflect perfectly this lull: Stanley Cup is too far into June (unless of course the OIL are in it!)

    – So I will keep posting this as I get responses: The Arm-Chair GM contest: winner gets a paypal contribution:

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
    9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
    10) Biggest off-season F acquired in terms of salary?:
    11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1?
    12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

    Please send in the following format.Entries eligible untill the first transaction and/or Vegas draft:

    1 Rienhart
    2 Nick Suzuki
    3 Yes, NYI Hamonic
    4 No
    5 Brossoit
    6 3 yrs 3.3 AAV
    7 8 year at 11 per year for 97
    8 8 years ar 7.5 per year for 29
    9 Russle – Hamonic
    10 Hanzel
    11 No
    12 4

  33. Klima's_Bucket says:

    There is not a lot of muscle in Florida with Gudbranson gone and Thornton retiring.
    If Dale Tallon is back in charge, I suspect they would find a way to keep Petrovic at the expense of Demers/Pysyk.

  34. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    Has anyone done an in depth stat breakdown on Pysyk and Petrovic?

    Both sound like interesting pickups, but on the surface they seem like less capable Matt Bennings. Petrovic especially seems like a younger version of Gryba and if that’s the case I hope Chia aims much higher.

    Again, I have no stats to prove my brain fart so would appreciate if someone could point me in the right direction as both players seem like genuinely potential pickups.

    Thanks.

    re: Pysyk & Petrovic, 2 interesting young players, saw quite a bit of both in junior (Petrovic was RNH’s teammate in Red Deer), have followed their careers with interest and am pleased to see both emerging as full-time NHLers. Takes a while to get from A to B, mind you — both guys spent parts of FOUR seasons in the AHL and are right at that nice age (25) where they have close to 200 games and are still in their RFA / “cheap” years. Both righties, to boot.

    I can’t see a situation where Florida would trade one of them and leave the other exposed in the expansion process, so the play here is more likely to make Vegas an offer once they nab one of them. But to think a 2nd round pick will get it done as someone suggested doesn’t seem right; a d-man from Florida is apt to be one of the Vegans’ better pick-ups, and they’re not going to sell low. Instead, they can run an auction — lots of market for the type of player described in the immediately preceding paragraph. And while you see such players picked off the scrap heap every year, in this case Florida is not dumping anyone, they are just painted into a corner.

    The teams to target pre-expansion draft are the ones with exactly one desirable defenceman they can’t protect.

  35. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    So, which of these two would you prefer to see in Edmonton?

  36. knighttown says:

    Man, what’s great about this place is that a guy can pose a hypothesis that he doesn’t have the skills to prove and someone like Vor can do the work to prove or disprove it. I’ve been off the site for a few days so almost missed Vor’s work but it’s tremendous.

    In the May 25th morning thread Shoot the Moon at 9:18 AM Knighttown posted a thought provoking thesis about the NHL playoffs turning into a lottery.
    “I’d love one of you stats people to do a correlation between being the better team (based on winning percentage) and winning playoff series. I’d bet it’s lower than it’s ever been and much lower than the other sports.
    And if being the better team doesn’t correlate tightly with winning how do you build a winner?”

    I won’t repost it all but you can go back to the Iiro thread to see it in all it’s glory.

    Hearing it proven that 70-80% of the outcome of a hockey game would be unacceptable if I were commissioner. Said another way, having the better team is only 1/4 of the equation into winning a hockey game. Ugh.

    This reminds me of the early-10’s fights I got into with tennis junkies who argued that Roger Federer would go down as a greater athlete than Tiger Woods.

    Tennis is a sport designed to be dominated. It’s one on one with almost no outside elements on one of three surfaces. If I’m better than you I’m going to beat you nearly every damned time.

    In golf I’ve got to beat 143 other players simultaneously on courses as wildly different as St. Andrews and Riviera all the while dealing with major outside influences like wind and lies and when the variance between a shit being good or bad (water vs green) is often infinitesmal off the face off club.

    So golf to me is a game that was never meant to be dominated which makes Tiger’s accomplishments far superior than the glorious Roger. I think that fact has been proven true so far. On either side of Tiger you had the Price, Faldo, Azinger, Stewart era with great players but no dominant force. And now you’ve got Spieth, Rory, Scott, Day and a host of others making a run at dominance but never really keeping it going.

    So you could stop here and say “who cares” but I can tell you many people do care. Golf was a niche sport, then it was massive and now it’s fallen off a cliff. Casual fans want to see greatness. The networks are trying to build up these new guys as “must see TV” but fans like me are just as likely to tune in on Sunday to Jon Rahm leading and Jordan Spieth home after missing the cut. And then interest wanes.

    So bringing this back to hockey.

    The NHL would promote Pens/Preds as Subban versus Crosby but you’re just as likely to see Colton Scissons and Jake Guentzel tip the balance of a game as you are Crosby or Subban. In-market fans like us don’t really care too much if it’s McDavid or Slepyshev that score the goals because we’re desperate in-market fans. We’re not talking local markets here and I’m aware the local ratings are great…even historic.

    We’re talking the out-of-market draw. They’re going to try to draw you in with Alex Ovechkin but then you’ll watch and you’ll see he’s playing 3rd line minutes after losing his job to Andrei Burakowsky. And if you’re a casual fan you just won’t get it.

    Speaking from experience, I’m a casual basketball fan. Didn’t watch an NBA game all season. Watched some Raps games in the playoffs and now the NBA Finals are must watch TV for me. I’m tuning out of the NHL and tuning into the NBA even though I FAR prefer hockey. Why is this happening now for the second year in a row?

    Because I listen to sportstalk radio and hear about the greatness of Lebron and Stef and KD so I tune in to check it out and what they promise they deliver on. In last nights game I must have said WOW 25 times. Lebron was masterful scoring at will and passing like Magic Johnson. Triple-double and barely played once the outcome was settled. Stef Curry looked like Fred Astaire dancing and bobbing and weaving. In the first half he was sloppy but went to the foul line 10 times because the league calls fouls. These weren’t star-favor falls. They were non-controversial fouls because a skilled player was trying to create offense. He then found his stroke in the 3rd quarter and went nuts. He also had a triple double, only the second time two players had a triple double in the same game. And then there was Kevin Durant, a 7-footer with the footwork, ball handling and stroke of someone a foot shorter. As unguardable as anyone I’ve ever seen as long as the rules are applied and they are. And this ignores Klay, Kyrie and Kevin Love who were ALL terrific last night. And guess what, the Colton Scissons equivalents like Iman Shumpert played almost no role and that’s just the way I want it.

    (As an aside, I totally get how much of a problem the NBA superteams issue is and I agree that it is a crisis that needs fixing. 1) The NBA is a star driven league and 2) the stars have all decided to congregate in a few select cities. I see the two as separate issues and believe Adam Silver will continue to try and fix the issue)

    So to finally come to a point, the NHL needs to understand and accept that it has a natural flaw in that, like golf, it is a game that will always be highly dependent on luck. It should be actively working every off season to reduce that “luck” number VOR quotes down to a more reasonable target. 50%? 45%? If you don’t you’ll always have a sport that plays well in local markets who love everyone almost equally but won’t grab the attention of the casual fan who, when promised a marquee matchup, want to see them do something.

    I don’t have solution but it seems likely that rule changes, enforcing the existing rules and creating way more scoring (to reduce the impact of the single random goal) would be where I’d start.

  37. Brantford Boy says:

    jtblack:
    John Chambers,

    How about Paulk, Parrie, Poughty,Pamonic ……

    These sound like clones… everyone knows we can’t clone a human’s yet… the thought is laughable… much like Smart TV’s watching us, and… and… and…

  38. Chachi says:

    knighttown: In golf I’ve got to beat 143 other players simultaneously on courses as wildly different as St. Andrews and Riviera all the while dealing with major outside influences like wind and lies and when the variance between a shit being good or bad (water vs green) is often infinitesmal off the face off club.

    If it is either water or green it is probably bad and if it continues you should consult a doctor.

  39. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    So, which of these two would you prefer to see in Edmonton?

    Whichever one is available. Not sure Edmonton has much say in who that might be, unless Chia is already shipering sweet nothings into George McPhee’s ear. (“So, George, would you rather your boy play in California or Irkutsk?”)

  40. stevezie says:

    knighttown,

    Your point on comparing greatness is great. That’s why the only pure competition is chess. No luck. None.

    Of course, even that’s not true. What did you have for breakfast, what did people say to you on the way to the match, what kind of diet did your mother keep while you were in utero…

  41. jtblack says:

    knighttown,

    I needed a coffee and a sandwich to get thru this post 🙂 But I did go back and read VOR’s post. I think this information leads to many conversations … Most of us compare today’s game to how we grew up (whether that was ’60’s, 70’s, 80’s, etc .. We compare players on point now to points in the past, teams now vs teams in the past …

    The game has changed so drastically … Connor’s 100 Point season this year might be one of the most impressive ever, but it does not get the accolades because on a pure point basis it is sooo far behind so many seasons and no where close to 200 points … But Era adjusted, etc, etc .. his season deserves a lot more love .. So when Connor throws down a 125 point season (which I believe he will); it may be on par with Gretz’s 215 or Mario’s 199

    As for teams. As VOR referenced, in the 80’s there were only a handful of truly competetive teams .. Edm and Cal represented the West in the Stanley Cup final 8 years in a row … in that same span only 4 teams represented the East (NYI, PHI, MTL, BOS) ..

    In the last 6 years the West has been represented by 4 diff teams. The East by 5 diff teams …

    So as Oilers fans, although a Dynasty of 3 – 5 Cups is engrained in our memory, what is realistic in today’s game? 1 Cup? 2 ? Either would be Excellent in my eyes. Anything more than that would be a Bonus.

  42. russ99 says:

    Slepyshev is part of the McDavid cluster, we need to move players who aren’t part of that cluster.

  43. Scungilli Slushy says:

    knighttown,

    The more stable the environment, the more that ability, organization and effort rise to the top. It is a truism of the human condition.

    I for one don’t like scripted like sports events. Far less excitement, tension, joy – I don”t like the lows but it’s part of a stronger experience.

    I prefer and always have CFL to NFL for this reason. Hockey to other sports.

    Hockey will likely always be more random (luck/bounces) than other sports because there is more going on and it’s unnatural (skates).

    Humans crave fairness and justice. That hockey is fairly random is fine as long as fans feel it was all on the up and up.

  44. russ99 says:

    Truth:
    I’m starting to think Vegas will select Khaira over Reinhart.Reinhart is the player we expect they pick because of his draft pedigree and the price the Oilers paid for him (so he should be the best available), but Khaira is a big, strong C who is trending in the right direction.Khaira could end up as a 4C, but also could be a 2C. Reinhart will never be more than a 5-6D, which Vegas should have no problem finding elsewhere.

    I don’t see any evidence by skillset or past performance that Khaira can be a #2 C. His good numbers in the past were draft-eligible age in an inferior league or an overager in the WHL.

  45. Optimism is like heroin says:

    To fill in for a stop gap for Sekera, I have read a few pieces about chara possibly moving …. not sure what it would cost or if he would want to move but at playoffs next year a defence that includes kef, larsson, chara, sekera, petrovic?, nurse and benning would be a great group with injury resistance.

  46. Bruce McCurdy says:

    knighttown,

    Excellent post by you in response to VOR’s excellent post of last thread. Stuff like this keeps me coming back here to the comments section.

    knighttown: The NHL would promote Pens/Preds as Subban versus Crosby but you’re just as likely to see Colton Scissons and Jake Guentzel tip the balance of a game as you are Crosby or Subban.

    Three relevant quotes:

    Me, to my wife during Game 2: “it’s 3-1 and all the goals have been scored Pontus Aberg and Jake Guentzel and Scott Wilson. In October when I cleverly avoided making any Stanley Cup predictions I’d barely heard of any of them.”

    Or as I heard it stated more succinctly during the season from a correspondent: “my friends don’t watch hockey because they think it’s too random”.

    Finally, an oldie but a goodie, from a bleeding & battered Jeremy Roenick: “Wake up, NHL! NHL, wake up!”

  47. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    knighttown,

    I needed a coffee and a sandwich to get thru this post But I did go back and read VOR’s post.I think this information leads to many conversations … Most of us compare today’s game to how we grew up (whether that was ’60’s, 70’s, 80’s, etc .. We compare players on point now to points in the past, teams now vs teams in the past …

    The game has changed so drastically … Connor’s 100 Point season this year might be one of the most impressive ever, but it does not get the accolades because on a pure point basis it is sooo far behind so many seasons and no where close to 200 points …But Era adjusted, etc, etc .. his season deserves a lot more love ..So when Connor throws down a 125 point season (which I believe he will); it may be on par with Gretz’s 215 or Mario’s 199

    As for teams.As VOR referenced, in the 80’s there were only a handful of truly competetive teams .. Edm and Cal represented the West in the Stanley Cup final8 years in a row …in that same span only 4 teams represented the East (NYI, PHI, MTL, BOS) ..

    In the last 6 years the West has been represented by 4 diff teams. The East by 5 diff teams …

    So as Oilers fans, although a Dynasty of 3 – 5 Cups is engrained in our memory, what is realistic in today’s game?1 Cup?2 ?Either would be Excellent in my eyes. Anything more than that would be a Bonus.

    I don’t think there can be consecutive dynasties, but there can be teams that are able to contend over time.

    The league isn’t going to stay dead puck. The ebb and flow over seasons in officiating keeps the advantage shifting around teams, the goal is parity, anybody can win.

    If it stays dead puck teams will goon up and a few that do it best will dominate. If they tighten the calls teams like the Oilers will destroy opponents. We see calls tight at the start and loosing up to WWE quality by Stanley Cup time.

    It would be hard to convince me that they aren’t manipulating this, Gary as the Wizard behind the curtain, given Kerry Fraser has said the league controls the officiating directly, putting any question about that to rest.

    Chiarelli compensates for all this by luck and brains. He was gifted elite players. He has acquired heavy that can play. The team can play both styles.

  48. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jtblack,

    – This is what I believe: the Oil are this generation of Chicago/Pittsburgh/L.A. Their outer marker is 3 Cups next 10 years: the cap ensures you can’t keep a large core, and this is by design.

    – Pittsburgh (if they win), are the first back-back cup winner since Detroit 19 years ago: 1997/1998

  49. stevezie says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I think that’s a fair assessment.

  50. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Or as I heard it stated more succinctly during the season from a correspondent: “my friends don’t watch hockey because they think it’s too random”.

    Random in the role of luck, or the application of the rules?

    My take is that luck doesn’t put people off. They’ll watch poker on TV. A lack of what is perceived as fairness and competence does though.

  51. Ducey says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    knighttown,

    The more stable the environment, the more that ability, organization and effort rise to the top. It is a truism of the human condition.

    I for one don’t like scripted like sports events. Far less excitement, tension, joy – I don”t like the lows but it’s part of a stronger experience.

    I prefer and always have CFL to NFL for this reason. Hockey to other sports.

    Hockey will likely always be more random (luck/bounces) than other sports because there is more going on and it’s unnatural (skates).

    Humans crave fairness and justice. That hockey is fairly random is fine as long as fans feel it was all on the up and up.

    Yup.

    I can handle the double deflection. I can’t handle the BS officiating the league has.

    The way they call every little ticky tack thing in Game 1 and let the standards erode during the season drives me nuts. Game 1 they called Eberle for 2 min for entering the circle too quickly on faceoff. Why? No one knows.

    Then in the playoffs its a totally different game.

  52. speeds says:

    knighttown:

    This reminds me of the early-10’s fights I got into with tennis junkies who argued that Roger Federer would go down as a greater athlete than Tiger Woods.

    Tennis is a sport designed to be dominated.It’s one on one with almost no outside elements on one of three surfaces.If I’m better than you I’m going to beat you nearly every damned time.

    In golf I’ve got to beat 143 other players simultaneously on courses as wildly different as St. Andrews and Riviera all the while dealing with major outside influences like wind and lies and when the variance between a shit being good or bad (water vs green) is often infinitesmal off the face off club.

    So golf to me is a game that was never meant to be dominated which makes Tiger’s accomplishments far superior than the glorious Roger.I think that fact has been proven true so far.On either side of Tiger you had the Price, Faldo, Azinger, Stewart era with great players but no dominant force.And now you’ve got Spieth, Rory, Scott, Day and a host of others making a run at dominance but never really keeping it going.

    I get what you’re saying re: which sport is theoretically harder to dominate, but “best athlete” means different things to different people.

    JMHO, but I don’t know if a golfer can ever be a “better athlete”, to me personally, than Roger Federer. Even if he wins everything, is golf physical enough to compare to tennis?

  53. stevezie says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Last October I placed money on two teams. One was the Predators, who I felt were clearly the most balanced team in the league. They made it. I am smart. The world is predicable.

    The other was the team who I felt then- and feel now- clearly has the best roster in the NHL. They have a top 3 d man matched with a fine top 4, excellent top 9 scoring depth, both youth and experience, two young stars just hitting their stride and one superstar firmly in his prime. Two good goalies. An excellent coach respected by both the old and new schools. Can’t miss pick, really.

    Yessir, they only way they’d lose if if somehow every opponent they faced somehow caught Lightning in a jar…

  54. Thinker says:

    I want to tie into this marketable player thing a bit. If you look at football, basketball, baseball, they can all be reduced into individual matchups between star players. Like how will InbredLevi Mitchell stand up to the pressure of Odell Willis? Hockey is different in that it is often something like McDavid Vs. Kesler. Checking lines have long existed, but imo if you call the rules cleanly, 3rd liners cannot check first liners. It’s when you let the chippy crap go that they can tread water. In a clean game, there is no way that I want Horcoff vs Crosby. If you cut out the BS, you would see a lot more McDavid Vs. Crosby type moments, or at the very least more of a McDavid vs Cogliano style matchup, where a player has to have speed or skill to check the other teams best.

    I think the majority of the NHL’s problem are self inflicted, and stem from all the unwritten rules and bias that goes back 100 years. The NBA has a Bron bias for sure, but they manipulate the rules to give the best players space, while hockey seeks to hamper the stars.

    More and more the international rink is growing on me. That and smaller goalie equipment might be instumental in making the game more fun. Game 1 of the SCF was probably the most boring games I have ever seen, and the rest of the series hasn’t been much better.

  55. stevezie says:

    VOR isn’t on the thread to reply to, but I really appreciated his post and knighttown both sparking the idea and promoting the excellent response.

  56. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Random in the role of luck, or the application of the rules?

    My take is that luck doesn’t put people off. They’ll watch poker on TV. A lack of what is perceived as fairness and competence does though.

    Not sure what was meant but it could be interpreted either way, or both.

    As for of the rules, I can’t get past early in Game One when Ryan Getzlaf was in full lumberjack mode carving away at various Oilers & Leon Draisaitl responded with one little tap to the shin pads & headed straight for the penalty box with the only minor. Getzlaf thereafter kept chopping away for the entire rest of the series without ever incurring a meaningful penalty.

    Which is different from saying “the fix is in” but it’s not mutually exclusive. If there was one item that never regressed to the mean all series long, it was “equal application of the rules”. And this 55-year fan of the game remains throughly pissed at the people running the league. They have lost the plot altogether.

  57. Bruce McCurdy says:

    stevezie:
    VOR isn’t on the thread to reply to, but I really appreciated his post and knighttown both sparking the idea and promoting the excellent response.

    Here’s VOR’s post for ease of reference. This is one post worth repeating at full length.

    VOR:
    In the May 25th morning thread Shoot the Moon at 9:18 AM Knighttown posted a thought provoking thesis about the NHL playoffs turning into a lottery.

    “I’d love one of you stats people to do a correlation between being the better team (based on winning percentage) and winning playoff series. I’d bet it’s lower than it’s ever been and much lower than the other sports.

    And if being the better team doesn’t correlate tightly with winning how do you build a winner?”

    I am ready to take a shot at answering his questions. At the time I was dismissive of his thesis. I now think he was right and I was wrong.

    I am going to start by referencing the following source:

    Forecasting Success in the National Hockey League using In-Game Statistics and Textual Data
    by Joshua Weissbock

    https://www.ruor.uottawa.ca/bitstream/10393/31553/3/Weissbock_Joshua_2014_thesis.pdf

    This was Joshua’s Master thesis in Computer Science at the University of Ottawa. There are several money quotes in this paper. One of my favorites is:

    “The upper bound was found using the Monte Carlo method to simulate an NHL
    season with varying amounts of skill and random chance required to win a game. After
    exploring various ratios of skill and luck, with 10,000 iterations each, we found the NHL
    is most statistically similar to a league were 24% of the games are determined by “skill”
    while the other 76% of games are determined by random chance (“luck”). This suggests
    the best we can predict in the NHL is at an accuracy of approximately 24%+ 76%
    2 = 62%”

    In other words all the Corsi, predicted goals, high danger scoring chances, etc. can’t predict more than 62% of the outcome of any single game of hockey. This is all based on data from 2005 and onward. To answer Knighttown’s implicit question: is luck a bigger factor than it has ever been we’d need to knowwhat a Monte Carlo simulation says about earlier periods in NHL history. We will come back to that.

    But we can answer knighttown’s second implicit question. Is luck a bigger factor in NHL hockey than in other sports such as basketball, baseball or football? Michael J. Mauboussin in The Success Equation answers that exact question. You can find a great interview at Wired:

    https://www.wired.com/2012/11/luck-and-skill-untangled-qa-with-michael-mauboussin/

    The answer is that luck plays a much larger role in hockey than it does in other sports but again this is based on data mostly since 2005.

    Now how does all this relate to the playoffs? This is at the very center of knighttown’s post.

    Well, Weissbock, Mauboussin and Tom Tango all seem to agree that in the NHL playoffs luck is less of a factor than in the regular season. Weissbock for example (and beware I am sort of putting words in his mouth) suggest that the correct ratio in the playoff is 48% skill and 52% luck. So still a lottery but one that the players can definitely affect.

    (By the way, all serious stats fans should follow Tom Tango.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-qa-with-tom-tango-the-new-czar-of-statcast/

    This post has a great interview with Tango, explains why he matters, and gives a link to his blog.)

    But again how does this compare with previous time periods in NHL history?

    As closely as I could I repeated some of Joshua Weissbock’s research except I used the NHL season from 1979-80 to 1990-1991.

    There is an excellent reason to believe that the results might be quite different. Weissboch found that parity matters greatly to predictability. As parity goes up, that is as the difference between teams in terms of seasonal winning percentages narrows, outcomes of individual games become harder to predict. As parity goes down, as the differences between teams in terms of seasonal winning percentages widens, outcomes of individual games become easier to predict.

    He uses as his example the NHL versus the KHL. The KHL has some rich, extremely successful teams, and some poor never do wells. The outcome of matches between the powerhouses and the basement dwellers is relatively easier to predict.

    So has the NHL ever had a time period that mirrors the current KHL? I would argue that the time period from 1979-80 to 1990-1991 nicely mirrors the current KHL.

    As for what I found:

    -Monte Carlo simulations led me to conclude that over this time period the model that best fit the observed outcomes for the regular seasons of the teams was 52% skill + 48% luck. This is very close to NFL football but still behind baseball, and way behind basketball and tennis.

    -In the playoffs I found that during these years the relationship was 64% skill and 36% luck.

    By the way during the seasons from 1983-1984, to 1988-1989 the two top seeds (best in the east, best in the west if you like) met 4 times. In all the seasons from 1979-1980 to the present that has only happened five times in total. So parity was very low, there were definitely haves and have-not teams, and the two best teams met over and over again.

    -I think it is fair to say that knighttown was right in speculating that hockey is more of a lottery than other sports and that the parity forced by salary caps has increased the role luck plays in outcomes both during the regular season and the playoffs
    .
    That leaves unanswered the question of how to build a team with a big enough skill differential to be a perennial favorite in the modern era of parity or as knighttown put it:

    “And if being the better team doesn’t correlate tightly with winning how do you build a winner?”
    But that, you will be pleased to know, is a question for a different day.

  58. rickithebear says:

    Looking at playoffs the last 3 seasons
    Breaking into 4 Groups:
    1. Above Meadian: 1A Above avg of Group 1; 1B Below avg of group 1
    2. Below Median; 2A Above avg of Group 2; 2B Below Avg of Group 2

    EVGPG: 193 Players with 2+ EVg in 6+ gm; Aprox. 65/seaon
    Meadian: .0231
    Above Meadian Avg .326
    Below Median Avg .161
    1A .326+
    1B .325 – .231
    2A .230 – .161
    2B .160 or less

    PPGPG: 90 Players; on average 30 per playoff Season
    Meadian: .091
    Above meadian Avg .155
    Below Median Avg .063
    1A .155+
    1B .154 – .091
    2A .090 – .063
    2B .062 or less

    OTGPG: 37 Players 1OTG; Aprox 12 per season
    Meadian: .063
    Above meadian Avg .102
    Below Median Avg .049
    1A .102+
    1B .101 – .063
    2A .062 – .049
    2B .048 or less

    GWGPG:117 Players 1OTG; Aprox 39 per Playoff season
    Meadian: .083
    Above meadian Avg .132
    Below Median Avg .058
    1A .132+
    1B .131 – .083
    2A .082 – .058
    2B .057 or less

    Oilers:
    Draisatl 16-17; .385 1A EVGPG; .077 2A PPGPG; .077 2B GWGPG
    Slepyshev 16-17; .250 1b EVGPG; .083 1B GWGPG
    Mcdavid 16-17; .231 1B EVGPG; .077 2A PPGPG;
    Caggulia 16-17; .231 1B EVGPG
    Maroon
    14-15; .250 1B EVGPG; .188 1A PPGPG; .063 2B GWGPG
    16-17; .154 2B EVGPG; .077 2A PPGPG; .077 2A GWGPG
    Kassian 16-17 .154 2B EVGPG; .154 1A GWGPG
    Letestu 16-17; .308 1A PPGPG
    Lucic 16-17; .154 1B PPGPG

    This matches up to the Even wowy I showed yesterday.
    Mcdavid W/
    Caggulia RW above 3.50 EVP60. +2.50 GD60
    Draisatl RW 3.02. +1.16
    Maroon LW 2.92 +1.67
    Eberle RW 2.42 +.40

    Draisatl at center
    Slepyshev RW 2.78 +2.15
    Purcell LW 2.71 +.49
    Kassian 2.62 Even
    Hall. 2.32. +.14

    Kassian RW
    Mcdavid C 3.28 Even
    Maroon LW 2.82. +.96
    Caggulia C 2.00. +.46
    Pouliot LW 1.96. +.83
    Pakarinen LW 1.46. +1.91

    Lucic at LW
    Puljujarvi RW 2.32. +2.00
    Mcdavid C 1.46. +1.33
    Eberle RW 1.25. +.72

    Best Reg Even and Playoff production:
    Maroon- Mcdavid – Caggulia
    XXX – Draisatl – Slepyshev
    XXX – XXX – Kassian

    Letestu 1 of 1 seasons
    Lucic 1 for 3 seasons

    Pouliot 0 for 1 seasons
    RNH 0 for 1 season
    Eberle 0 for 1 season

    Oilers, UFA and Discussed Players with Playoff G production success.
    3rdline EVG production part of Cup success.
    Playoff average Min
    ( 2 series = 12gm – 186 players – 92 Above Avg)
    #2 Johnson .395
    #3 Draisatl .385
    #24 Slepyshev .250
    #29 Mcdavid .231
    #29 Caggulia .231
    #39 Oshie .226
    #46 Maroon .207
    #49 Williams .200
    #49 Marleau .200
    #49 R. Strome .200
    #59 Eaves .188
    #66 Bonino .176
    #88 Kassian .154

    ( 3 series = 18gm 132 players – 65 abv Avg)
    #2 Johnson .395
    #28 Oshie .226
    #33 Maroon .207
    #36 Williams .200
    #36 Marleau .200
    #48 Bonino .176

    ( 4 series = 24gm 99 players- Abv Avg 49 players)
    #1 Johnson .395
    #23 Oshie .226
    #26 Maroon .207
    #29 Williams .200
    #29 Marleau .200
    #39 Bonino .176

  59. stevezie says:

    Thinker,

    We often criticize the NHL’s marketing department, but I’m not sure why. Does “selling the game” make my life better in any way? I’d argue it actually makes it worse. All I get as the game grows is increased ticket prices and a watered down product as the league casts about for casual fans.

    I hope they never figure out how to sell it.

    That said, as someone who actually watches games myself, I do want them to figure out how to make the product better. This means rewarding skill*.

    *I would call toughness a skill. I don’t want all-ballet all the time, I just want to get away from an over-coached coin-toss.

  60. Thinker says:

    speeds: I get what you’re saying re: which sport is theoretically harder to dominate, but “best athlete” means different things to different people.

    JMHO, but I don’t know if a golfer can ever be a “better athlete”, to me personally, than Roger Federer.Even if he wins everything, is golf physical enough to compare to tennis?

    IMO there isn’t a single hockey player who is best athlete. NFL and NBA players are way more athletic. They rely on more fundamental athletic skills. McDavid could never get open against an NFL db for example, not to mention the average NFL player is stronger in every way in the gym than the best NHLers.

  61. Melman says:

    knighttown,

    You’re bang on. I turned game 3 on for about 10 mins of the 3rd period – full disclosure: I was waiting for my wife to get ready so we could could out. Anyhow, I saw Nash’s 4th and 5th goals along with a bunch of the monkey business at the end. Enjoyed it enough though that I’ll tune in for the start of game 4 and see where it goes. However, what struck me the most watching was in the 10 minutes I tuned in Simpson (who I like on tv) must have brought up officiating at least a 1/2 dozen times in the context of the refs having let so much go they were having a hard time reeling things in. We saw this in both series Edm. played, but it was stupidly over the top with the Ducks. Simpson said himself when he played in there was no shortage of rough stuff. There has been a number of well respected MSM’s who have said the same thing this year including Mackenzie and Friedman

    I think when hearing these comments it worth noting it’s not necessarily a one game thing. These guys have called/watched/reviewed a game a night for the entirety of the playoffs. Non-calls by the refs build not just game to game, but throughout the playoffs. If Perry gets away with something in rounds 1 and 2 he’s going to keep pushing the envelope in the 3rd round – thankfully that’s as far as he got. Same goes for the Penguins, whether it’s slashing, crosschecking or diving.

    Where am I going? All of the non-calls diminish the ability of the skill players to maximize their talent and impact the outcome of the game, thus increasing the degree to which luck plays into the result. Couple that with the mystical decisions on goalie interference and offside reviews viewed based on a 1981 Sony Betamax and the non-playing hockey market tunes out fairly quickly.

    The NBA left the Pistons era basketball where it belongs. According to Bettman: the coach’s challenge and the current video review process is “working exactly as we hoped it would”. Until the NHL wants to change, nothing will, and they don’t. On the other hand I’m not sure how Edm. fans would feel about McDavid’s next contract being worth $32M/year

  62. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: And this 55-year fan of the game remains throughly pissed at the people running the league. They have lost the plot altogether.

    Me too. I don’t think it’s ‘fixed’ per se, but I do think they are actually on plot and do seek to influence things in the broader sense, however if we see many more clear issues with goalie interference review I will say they are seeking to influence individual games, which would be approaching IOC levels of yuck.

  63. knighttown says:

    speeds: I get what you’re saying re: which sport is theoretically harder to dominate, but “best athlete” means different things to different people.

    JMHO, but I don’t know if a golfer can ever be a “better athlete”, to me personally, than Roger Federer.Even if he wins everything, is golf physical enough to compare to tennis?

    Well, now there’s a whole different debate. Is tennis mental enough to compare to golf?

  64. rickithebear says:

    Here we go!

    One of the leading Sports analysts and Myself had a great conversation.

    When seeking me out ,
    She told me that one of my base theories largely eliminates all work done in the past.
    Cause they all fail to exclude?

    The theories discussed here all fail to properly identify their data!

  65. Thinker says:

    stevezie:
    Thinker,

    We often criticize the NHL’s marketing department, but I’m not sure why. Does “selling the game” make my life better in any way? I’d argue it actually makes it worse. All I get as the game grows is increased ticket prices and a watered down product as the league casts about for casual fans.

    I hope they never figure out how to sell it.

    That said, as someone who actually watches games myself, I do want them to figure out how to make the product better. This means rewarding skill*.

    *I would call toughness a skill. I don’t want all-ballet all the time, I just want to get away from an over-coached coin-toss.

    A clean tough hit, or a shot block is highly valuable and entertaining. Cheap shots, cross checks in the back, etc are stupid and should be called. I think it was in game two where there was a cross checking penalty behind the net. The ref watched the guy cross check the other guy on the ground twice, then called the third one. Reminded me of the Key and Peele skit where you only get 2 pumps. Asinine officiating.

  66. Glass says:

    Agree with Sir John Chambers as well… trade Eberle to Vegas post expansion for a 3RD (fringe 2RD?) and a 3C would solve a lot of our issues. I just don’t like the idea of keeping Eberle and getting rid of Slepyshev.

    In the future, we’re going to need good contracts. This may be wishful thinking, but it’s entirely possible both Slepyshev & Puljujarvi become staples in our top 6 within the next couple of years. Both likely to be on solid contracts.

    But if we trade Slepyshev, and hold onto Eberle + sign Williams for 2 years, what’s our plan in 2 years? When both players are gone, we’re left with JP. Maybe Foo signs, maybe our 1st rounder this year is a RW who is ready in his draft +3 season. I might add by the way that Slepyshev did not look out of place with Drai & Lucic, especially in a time when the stakes were higher. Oh, and we’d probably have to sell Eberle next off-season because of McDavid’s contract, so giving up Slepyshev puts us in a tough spot.

    I agree with the bit about signing Campbell though. Either way I don’t mind signing a ufa RW for the depth.

    Maroon / McDavid / Draisaitl
    Lucic / Nuge / UFA
    Pouliot / Lowry / Slepyshev
    Caggiula / Letestu / Kassian

    Klefbomb / Larsson
    Campbell / Petrovic
    Nurse / Benning

    Stick Puljujarvi in the AHL until the deadline… see if you can sell Pouliot with 30% retained, throw Slepyshev on 3LW and then bump Puljujarvi to 3RW. Maybe one of them bumps the UFA to the 3rd line by then.

  67. Thinker says:

    rickithebear:
    Here we go!

    One of the leading Sports analysts and Myself had a great conversation.

    When seeking me out ,
    She told me that one of my base theories largely eliminates all work done in the past.
    Cause they all fail to exclude?

    The theories discussed here all fail to properly identify their data!

    Congratulations? I have no idea what you are saying.

  68. theres oil in virginia says:

    Bruce, the fix is definitely in. Look at the goaltender interference calls for and against Anaheim, not just in the series against the Oil.

    What did you think of the overturned Preds goal in game one of the finals?

  69. stevezie says:

    Thinker,

    Bruce McCurdy: As for of the rules, I can’t get past early in Game One when Ryan Getzlaf was in full lumberjack mode carving away at various Oilers & Leon Draisaitl responded with one little tap to the shin pads & headed straight for the penalty box with the only minor. Getzlaf thereafter kept chopping away for the entire rest of the series without ever incurring a meaningful penalty.

    It blows my mind that the Ducks can be widely acknowledged as the dirtiest team in the league but get called for so little. I happily acknowledge that Kessler is really good at cheating. He has the best slashes! Excellent hooks and high-sticks! Truly a grand master.

    But once this is known to the refs, why does he still get so many calls his way? Why is he the player type the league is deciding to err on the side of? What the hell is going on here?

    Cody Macleods of the world look at somebody funny and there’s a call; why are refs so happy to say Perry, Kessler. Getzlaf etc. walked the line perfectly? You spend enough time in the grayzone (i any walk of life) officials should turn against you, not come to respect how good you are at doing all the evil you can get away with.

    That Kessler gets jumped so infrequently is abetter argument against the use of fighting than any statistical study or concussion report…

  70. theres oil in virginia says:

    Also, JDI posted some videos of the Oilers-Flambes series from 1991 a few days back. The thing that struck me the most was how much physical play the refs let go (Messier was down right dirty). I still think they should call the rulebook, but clearly it wasn’t negatively affecting the quality of the game. (Watching that Flames player wobbling to the bench was not fun.)

    The big difference between then and now was/is the goaltending. It’s currently a joke. The goalies are twice the size, and it ain’t just that they are taller and more muscular now. Fix that and a lot of other ills go away.

  71. monsterbater says:

    Off topic, but perhaps relevant to this fine community.

    I am attending the PMINAC (Project Management Institute Northern Alberta Chapter) conference on Wednesday at the River Cree. While i use the conference to network and catch up with former colleagues, some of the sessions and speakers they are providing this year are interesting.

    Of note, Darby Allen (Former Fort Mac fire chief) will be given a discussion on leadership while “taming the beast” which should be interesting, but also the one session i immediately signed up for “Analytics Strategy: The power and risk of embracing an evidence-based culture.” Perhaps it is wishful thinking that the UofA prof giving the lecture will tie in sports, namely the NHL to his discussion. But it should be interesting none the less.

    If i can drop a “seen him good” line during question period, how many corsis do i get? lol. Anyways, if anyone is interested i will post a synopsis of the discussion in the Wednesday thread…. i will probably do this whether people are interested or not because LT allows us to do so and that’s part of what makes this community so awesome.

    Cheers

  72. stevezie says:

    knighttown,

    I once had a gym teacher who passionately argued tennis players were the best athletes because of the length of matches and temperatures they were expected to play in. Argued is was the MOST mentally gruelling.

    You seem to be making the interesting argument that it is so physical/reflex based that it has the least important mental game. Fascinating.

    I don’t know nothing about tennis or golf. Just here to watch the argument.

  73. speeds says:

    knighttown: Well, now there’s a whole different debate.Is tennis mental enough to compare to golf?

    It’s certainly closer than the physicality debate – there’s arguably more strategy to tennis and both give some moments to worry/think about things vs. just reacting in the moment, if that’s what you’re getting at.

    Can a chess champion or poker player can be the best athlete in the world?

  74. Evilas says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Please send in the following format.Entries eligible untill the first transaction and/or Vegas draft:

    1 – Letestu
    2 – Chia will trade down for multiple picks – Mathew Strome
    3 – Michael McLeod + a 3rd round pick
    4 – No
    5 – Anders Nilsson
    6 – 0
    7 – $39.25/5
    8 – $32.75/5
    9 – Trevor Daley / Jan Rutta
    10 – Ales Hemsky
    11 – Yes
    12 – 3

  75. knighttown says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    knighttown,

    Excellent post by you in response to VOR’s excellent post of last thread. Stuff like this keeps me coming back here to the comments section.

    Me, to my wife during Game 2: “it’s 3-1 and all the goals have been scored Pontus Aberg and Jake Guentzel and Scott Wilson. In October when I cleverly avoided making any Stanley Cup predictions I’d barely heard of any of them.”

    Thank you Bruce. And this quote is exactly what I’m feeling. I remember looking at the 5×5 scoring last year and finding out the Scott Hartnell scored more than Sid Crosby. When the sample size is 82 games and luck, randomness, matchups etc can make up for that much of a disparity in talent the ratio needs to be fixed.

    Now turn to this playoff and the #16 seed SWEEPS the #1 seed in the West in the first round and it’s met with a shrug. The analytics guys point out that they saw something in the underlying stats. The Simmons’ say Nashville wanted it more or that something is wrong with Chicago’s core.

    But if we can’t be truly shocked by that outcome then we’ve now taken away the chance of ever being shocked by ANY outcome.

    And that to me is a loss. Marchant versus the Stars. Samsanov versus the Wings. We’ll get our share of these but it won’t be the same because the outcome of a hockey game is getting pretty damned close to the outcome of a coin toss.

  76. Melman says:

    Thinker,

    This is a better version of what I was trying to say. Without having a stick between his feet all game no way Kesler keeps up with McDavid for a series. And more to your point watching Crosby vs. McDavid skill on skill is more entertaining. Take it further and watching McDavid vs. Getzlaf playing within the rules would be great too as you have the speed vs. size element. For the folks who like the grinder style game you’ll still get that from the secondary players. You can also still have great goaltending displays in a 5-3 game as the # of chances will increase, plus the added drama of leads changing hands.

  77. stevezie says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    I agree, but I’ll add coaching and player size. Coaching has everyone making so many fewer mistakes. mistakes create exciting plays. The guys then were cheating with no structure, so fun stuff still happened. If you’re lined up perfectly and you’re clutching grabbing, slashing and punching then things slow down a lot.

    Also, the bigger/faster players mean things like fights, hits, and even clean unspectacular collisions do a lot more damage. Basically, the average guy’s capacity to dole out damage has increased dramatically, but his ability to receive it has remained static.

    I’m not sure professional sports are a good thing.

  78. speeds says:

    Glass:
    In the future, we’re going to need good contracts. This may be wishful thinking, but it’s entirely possible both Slepyshev & Puljujarvi become staples in our top 6 within the next couple of years. Both likely to be on solid contracts.

    But if we trade Slepyshev, and hold onto Eberle + sign Williams for 2 years, what’s our plan in 2 years? When both players are gone, we’re left with JP. Maybe Foo signs, maybe our 1st rounder this year is a RW who is ready in his draft +3 season. I might add by the way that Slepyshev did not look out of place with Drai & Lucic, especially in a time when the stakes were higher. Oh, and we’d probably have to sell Eberle next off-season because of McDavid’s contract, so giving up Slepyshev puts us in a tough spot.

    I don’t know if the Oilers would draft Yamomoto, if he’s available at 22, but if they do, we’ll probably be able to look back and see there were some signs they might look at that.

  79. rickithebear says:

    Thinker: IMO there isn’t a single hockey player who is best athlete. NFL and NBA players are way more athletic. They rely on more fundamental athletic skills. McDavid could never get open against an NFL db for example, not to mention the average NFL player is stronger in every way in the gym than the best NHLers.

    When you look at the top Physical team contact sports in the world
    with Sport rank based on Participation; Audience; Viewership; Pro leagues; Tv Deals; Endorsement; Salaries; Social media
    #1 Soccer
    #2 Basketball
    #6 Rugby
    #9 Ice hockey
    #13 Football

    All but one are a forward peripheral sport.
    Any legal contact will largely be coming towards you.
    Hockey has a high potential for legal none in view contact.

    Hockey’s forces from deceleration are on another level.

  80. Melman says:

    speeds,

    Another wrinkle, for better or worse, in golf you have the time between shots that you don;t get in tennis. This can be used to compose or decompose oneself!

    no golf game can physically compare to tennis – case in point: Raonic’s 4+ hours on clay in Paris

  81. --hudson-- says:

    Coincidentally, Mauboussin has an interview with Vox released today. Very interesting viewing on the skill versus luck in hockey.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNlgISa9Giw

    Thanks for all of the excellent comments above! (Bruce, VOR, knighttown, etc)

  82. knighttown says:

    speeds: It’s certainly closer than the physicality debate – there’s arguably more strategy to tennis and both give some moments to worry/think about things vs. just reacting in the moment, if that’s what you’re getting at.

    Can a chess champion or poker player can be the best athlete in the world?

    I was mostly being tongue in cheek.

    If I were to wade into the debate of GOAT across all sports I’d argue that what most people mean by “athlete” for the purpose of this debate is the greatest player participating in one of the major sports. You’d include Tiger, Wayne, Tom Brady, Michael and LeBron, Ali, Babe Ruth, Messi and sure, R-Fed if you have him as #1 in his sport. Basically take the #1-#5 guys in most sports and start the debate.

    The other definition of athlete, meaning, who is the most athletic person of all time would veer in a completely different direction and would involve a) lots of people who weren’t on that first list and b) lots of people who never took part in major sports. Ironically guys like Tiger, Gretzky and Tom Brady aren’t great athletic specimens but their mental makeup was bordering on inhuman.

    Greatest athlete conversations would include Bo Jackson, Usain Bolt, LeBron James and maybe a guy like Michael Phelps. Human beings that were put on earth to play sports and in the case of Phelps, designed specifically to play his sport.

  83. knighttown says:

    Melman:
    speeds,

    Another wrinkle, for better or worse, in golf you have the time between shots that you don;t get in tennis.This can be used to compose or decompose oneself!

    no golf game can physically compare to tennis – case in point:Raonic’s 4+ hours on clay in Paris

    Agreed and I agree with Speeds.

    Golf is a brutal mental game. Look at the careers of David Duval and Ian Baker-Finch if you aren’t convinced. I’ve played competitively for all my life and simply can’t anymore because it’s too much for a mental midget like me. I’ve built up a beautifully indexed library of horrible shots I can draw upon whenever the need arises, most often when I’m up one on #18 and have a 6-foot slider down the hill.

    I play a decent amount of tennis for fun and totally agree it’s also quite a mind fu&k.

    Hockey on the other hand, I’ve almost never had my play affected to any great degree by the “moment”.

    For mental it’s golf>>tennis>>>>>>hockey unless you’re a goalie. Just ask Patrick Lalime.

  84. speeds says:

    knighttown,

    It’s probably close to impossible to come to some unanimously determined answer, because people value different things.

  85. Scungilli Slushy says:

    stevezie: That Kessler gets jumped so infrequently is abetter argument against the use of fighting than any statistical study or concussion report…

    Merely the instigator rule which protects the offender, coupled with the fact they will call any retaliation. Take that out and it would be 70’s style while a bazillion scores get settled. I’m sure Lucic would have gone at Getzlaf at least.

  86. Clarkenstein says:

    LT for weeks now I’ve seen your projected roster for the new season. I’m seeing no change at the C position which finished 30th in faceoffs. It would be incredulous to think this team could ice the same lineup at C and expect a better result. Chia knows this and I’d expect he’s already working on it.

  87. Glass says:

    speeds,

    Wouldn’t mind Yamamoto, Lind, or Thomas. For LH options, it’d be hard to pass up on Vesalainen, Tolvanen, Kostin…

    I’m not that excited about these prospects to be honest. I mean, Thomas seems underrated and if he drops to us that’d be great.

    Yamamoto – Very dynamic, lacks size. Is his speed enough to make up for it?
    Lind – Maybe a safer pick than Kailer, but his athletic ability is lacking – explosiveness, quickness, strength.
    Thomas – Great all around, smart. Lacks size, but isn’t small either. Nothing not to like imo.

    Thomas > Yamamoto > Lind?

    If Thomas & Vesalainen don’t fall, it could push someone like Andersson, Kostin, and Tolvanen into our range.

  88. Melman says:

    knighttown,

    That’s so true. My uncle who has been in the golf biz since his early 20’s, and was the ultimate money guy forever, got a case of the yips one tourney because the dollars got high on a team game and he was worried about losing his partner’s $. Couldn’t sleep that night and his putter never recovered…that was 7 years ago

  89. VOR says:

    kinger_oil.redux,

    Well I actually should include the trade guy and Scungilli slushy in this as well: thank you for encouraging me to think about hockey in a deeper richer way. Trade guy is right that the change in goal tending equipment might be a contributing factor to parity. I think unequivocally Scungilli slushy is right that officiating or the lack thereof is instrumental in creating parity. You bring up a great point kinger, that within this period of luck playing a large role in outcomes the same few teams keep winning.

    Interesting things happen though when we return to knighttown’s original question about winning percentages in the regular season not correlating with cup winning so how do you build a winning team. It certainly seems (Chicago and Pittsburgh) to be possible.

    Let’s start with a simple idea. If skill determined regular season and the playoffs, no luck at all involved the team with the highest winning percentage would win every time.The average of Cup Winners NHL regular season ranking would be 1. If the outcome of the playoffs is entirely luck over time you would expect the average Cup Winner to be the 8th or 9th best team avg = 8.5. But if we believe Weissboch (and I do) what he is saying is 50% of outcome in the playoffs is skill and 50% is luck more or less. With luck just slightly more important.Thus we would expect the average in season rank of Cup Winners to be around 4.25.

    The average of the last 11 Cup Winners is 4.9 which fits Weissboch’s model.

    That is 2006 Carolina 3rd overall in NHL regular season.
    2007 Anaheim 3rd overall
    2008 Detroit 1st overall
    2009 Pittsburgh 8th overall
    2010 Chicago 3rd overall
    2011 Boston 4th overall
    2012 Los Angeles 14th overall
    2013 Chicago 1st overall
    2014 Los Angeles tied for 9th overall
    2015 Chicago 4th overall
    2016 Pittsburgh 4th overall

    My tentative conclusion is there is still room for teams to be built that overall a decade or so will win more than their share of Stanley Cupseven though they can’t be built to consistently finish 1st in the regular season.

    But that still leaves knighttown’s most important question unanswered, exactly how do we build one of those teams?

  90. VOR says:

    I think, and this is my personal opinion not some sort of scientific treatise, that we could usefully expand the discussion about toughest sports to include rowing, track and field, and cycling. These are sports where your mind has to be able to totally overrule your body. Trying running a competitive 400 metre sprint, a 1 km sprint in cycling, or any rowing event you like. In each your body is screaming stop! But the great athletes in these sports keep pressing on.

    In my dotage I have returned to the favorite sport of my youth, competitive shooting. You have to go to this state of complete no mindless where you and the target are one. You have to be beyond calm. It is very hard, at least for me, to reach that place.

  91. Scungilli Slushy says:

    My wife feels very strongly that there are sports, and activities. She has a set of rules that are likely heavily influenced by her impression of the thing, but I kind of agree with her, although I have no idea how to define it all.

  92. Ducey says:

    I have a little problem with this luck discussion.

    If I understand some of the discussion, it assumes that the contrast is between a more skilled team, who should win, and luck, which will prevail if the skill team does not win.

    In reality a less skilled team can be beat by a team that is better rested, has better systems, is more determined, is healthier, or just is playing with more confidence.

    None of that is luck.

    The NHL is “luckier” because you have the ability to impose your will on another team. You can intimidate, hurt, hit, and check your opponent. Pretty hard to do that in other sports where you are restricted by the rules (basketball) or just plain stet-up (tennis).

    I like hockey because of this. You have to be skilled, but also tough, mentally and physically, to play.

    All I ask is that NHL apply consistent rules from game to game so teams can adapt and I can have an expectation that the rules are imposed fairly.

  93. stevezie says:

    VOR: But that still leaves knighttown’s most important question unanswered, exactly how do we build one of those teams?

    I get the impression that the smart move is not to push all your chips in on any one season, but rather build a team that will be in the top ten every every year and top 5 some years, and just hope you catch the breaks.

    It famously did not work out for the Sharks or the Caps, but no one can overrule the dice.

  94. stevezie says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Merely the instigator rule which protects the offender, coupled with the fact they will call any retaliation.

    I’m just not sure I buy this. The instigator is a two minute penalty. Guys take dumb two minute penalties on the semi-regular. Macleod fought Boll, took a two minute instigator. Why not just jump Kessler? From a strategic point, this would be much better use of a two minute instigator than rushing Boll.

  95. Chachi says:

    stevezie: I’m just not sure I buy this. The instigator is a two minute penalty. Guys take dumb two minute penalties on the semi-regular. Macleod fought Boll, took a two minute instigator. Why not just jump Kessler? From a strategic point, this would be much better use of a two minute instigator than rushing Boll.

    Kesler would not fight Macleod; he would turtle and then you are looking at a double minor you have to kill off at the very least.

  96. Jordan says:

    That’s not true – Gary overrules the dice.

    That’s the whole point.

    That’s how we ended up with this Cup Final. Gary decided who was going to end up in the cup final.

    Gary was totally honest in his statements that video review was working exactly as they planned. NHL management can directly influence the outcome of games.

    Why is the reffing so systematically bad? So they can call what they want without concern for being perceived as biased. If most calls are inconsistent or terrible, then its totally normal for them to have an effect on the outcome.

    The NHL is the WWE of major sports – they rig the outcome to produce the outcomes they want.

    That’s why I haven’t watched a game since the Oilers left the playoffs. They got screwed. Everyone knows they got screwed. But they weren’t the only team. The only consistent thing about these playoffs have been the ridiculously terrible officiating for all series.

    So, how can you build an audience for a final when all your core fans for the teams who have been eliminated think their team got screwed? Where do the ratings go when you are relying on fans who don’t follow your sport to come and watch it? What do they think when they see the game is not called fairly?

    The NHL is a great business. It’s a wonderful spectacle. It’s full of skilled athletes.

    But it’s not a sport, because sports have rules that are fairly enforced. The NHL stopped doing that. So, whoever wins the Cup this year didn’t do so fairly. Ergo, these playoffs no longer matter.

    So, why watch?

  97. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    2006 Carolina 3rd overall in NHL regular season.
    2007 Anaheim 3rd overall
    2008 Detroit 1st overall
    2009 Pittsburgh 8th overall
    2010 Chicago 3rd overall
    2011 Boston 4th overall
    2012 Los Angeles 14th overall
    2013 Chicago 1st overall
    2014 Los Angeles tied for 9th overall
    2015 Chicago 4th overall
    2016 Pittsburgh 4th overall
    2017 *Pittsburgh 2nd overall

    Assuming a Pitt win this year, 9 of the last 12 Winners finished 4th or better during the Regular Season. So although Luck plays a part of the eventual Champion (you will always have outlier teams: Hello L.A.), I think this shows that if you want to win the Cup, Your best statistical odds would suggest you better be a Top 4 team in the Regular Season.

  98. VOR says:

    Ducey,

    Having played goal for five decades before injury finally forced me to quit I agree that being mentally and physically tough is a big part of hockey at any level. Truthfully, I think at the NHL level all the components of mental performance are more important than elite physical skill (which everyone at that level has in spades). However, all these factors are included in the definition of skill.

    Essentially, all of the current work on luck is building on Tom Tango’s realization (which in retrospect seems obvious) that Skill + Luck = Outcome. By definition that which is not luck is covered under skill (leadership, toughness, intimidation, goal scoring, goal tending, all covered). We know what outcomes look like for many years of many hockey leagues. We can create distribution curves of those outcomes (plot them all on a graph). Then we can ask what combination of luck and non luck factors (defined as skill) would tend to product outcomes that looks like the real distributions we have plotted?

    The answer is 24% skill and 76% luck.

    Then, and a number of authors have tried versions of this, you can come up with attempts to predict the outcome of hockey games and see how well these predictive methods perform. The best of them come out around 60% success. If you think about it they should be able to predict the 24% of the games that are skill and get half of the 76% that depend on luck right (38%) and thus the best you should be able to do is 62%. No method has achieved that level of predictive success so this tends to confirm the idea that a great deal of hockey (particularly during the regular season and yes this would apply to your league as well) is down to luck.

  99. VOR says:

    JT Black,

    I am tempted to agree with you but the sample size (and yes I know it is my sample) is too small. But it is probably at least a partial answer to knighttown’s question:

    Step 1 to winning in a luck driven era: be a top 4 team during the regular season. The caveat being it didn’t work out for Vancouver or Washington and a lot of other top 4 teams.

  100. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    I don’t think the sample size can go too far back or you get into the Non Cap Era and then back into the 70’s and 80’s dynasties (which we kind of all agreed were different times).

    Step 1: Be a top 4 team during the regular season. Based on the last 12 years, 75% of the Cup Champions come from the Top 4. So help me out (for real) …

    If 75% of the Cup Champs come from the Top 4 (fact); what is the % a team wins the Cup if they finish in the Top 4. 20%?

    there is only 1 Champ every year in a 30 (31) team league. If ultimate parity existed, the odds of a team winning would be about 3.33% at the start of a season.

    There is no way to predict the winner, but with Stats we can increase the odds of predicting the winner or suggest that “A team that finishes Top 4 in the regular season, has a much better opportunity to win the Stanley Cup, than a team finishes 5 – 16” …

    Doesn’t really matter, but always just curious!

  101. Revolved says:

    Death By Misadventure,

    These two guys have been talked about again and again, so I thought I would look into their numbers:

    All stats 5×5 for 2016-17 season from stats.hockeyanalysis.com

    Petrovic:
    6’4 – 205
    16.2 TOI/GP
    49GP 1G-13A-14P
    1.06 P/60
    0.46 PrimaryP/60
    3.93 Shots/60
    46.7 IPP
    50.9 CF% – +0.4 CF%Rel
    51.4 FF% – +1.4 FF%Rel: +1.85 FF/60Rel -0.55 FA/60Rel
    50.3 SF% – +1.1 SF%Rel
    46.9 GF% – +2.1 GF%Rel
    39.3 DZFO%
    50.4 Opponent CF% (QOC highest on team)

    Pysyk:
    6’1 – 201
    15.3 TOI/GP
    82GP 4G-11A-15P
    0.72 P/60
    0.33 PrimaryP/60
    3.97 Shots/60
    33.3 IPP
    51.6 CF% – +1.7 CF%Rel
    51.7 FF% – +2.2 FF%Rel: -1.83 FF/60Rel -5.33 FA/60Rel
    49.7 SF% – +0.5 SF%Rel
    47.4 GF% – +4.1 GF%Rel
    33.7 DZFO%
    50.2 Opponent CF% (QOC Tie fourth highest on team)

    Both are quality players on a mediocre Panthers D. Petrovic is perhaps the more offensive of the two, while Pysyk may be more of a shut down guy based on the FA/60Rel. Hilariously, both are from Edmonton, which surely you all knew, but is news to me!

    I haven’t seen these guys play much, but the question becomes: do you think the Oilers need a more offensive or defensive D-man? If pushed, I would protect Ricki’s box with Pysyk.

  102. bendelson says:

    stevezie,

    In the end, this may not reflect well on you old friend, but my October prediction was also Nashville vs Tampa Bay in the finals… with Tampa winning the cup.

    I’d suggest ‘great minds’ and all that but we both know that certainly isn’t the case here…

  103. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jordan, all of the major professional sports leagues in North America retain human error and judgement in the officiating of their product.

    Humans decide the strike zone in baseball.
    Humans decide pass interference intent in football.
    Humans decide personal foul intent in basketball. Incidentially the lack of traveling calls in the NBA are absolutely egregious. It’s a core rule of basketball that is consistently and flagrantly ignored at the professional level.

    Because of this, when mistakes are made (which is inevitable when human error is factored in), and those mistakes affect the final result ESPECIALLY when it’s your team affected, this is the spark for the conspiracy fire.

    Google officiating and conspiracy for any of the other 4 major leagues and you’ll find commentary similar to what you’re claiming today.

    But, as with almost all conspiracy theories, Occam’s Razor applies and in this instance, the easiest and most obvious explanation is refs are human beings empowered to officiate a sport that occurs at extremely high speed and these human beings make mistakes from time to time.

    And this applies to video review as well, because most of these calls are extremely close either way (rarely are they as cut and dried as you’d like) and thus judgement plays a large determining factor in their outcome. From my pov, there are rarely calls where the NHL is 100% egregiously wrong. More often than not, the calls are highly debatable either way and the error, if any, results from the fact that the NHL rule book is so rarely iron clad and so often, subject to human interpretation.

  104. dustrock says:

    Love the debate here today, fascinating.

    I think the Oilers have the hockey equivalent of Lionel Messi in Connor McDavid. And yet the frustration is the rules, officiating, systems coaching and equipment all combine to work against displaying his preternatural talents.

    The NHL seems to miss that the average fan wants an incredible highlight package above all else.

    Not sure how many people watched Real Madrid inevitably win the Champions League final, but thank god it wasn’t a 0-0(5-4) result. I’m sure many sports fans saw the highlights of Mandzukic’s unbelievable bicycle kick goal.

    It’s water cooler talk. “Hey did you see that goal by McDavid?” Not “Hey, crazy how the Oilers won with that shot from the point that deflected off 4 players and in!”

    I’ve ranted a few times about the Oilers finally getting good again, when my interest in actually watching hockey is at an all-time low.

  105. VOR says:

    JTBlack,

    I think it is slightly more complicated than that. Not a lot but slightly.

    I think you would have to calcualte the odds of a team in the top four winning the cup.

    In other words number of winners from top four versus all top four teams in the sample period (in this case 12 years).

    So 9/48 = 18.75%

    So in the sample (and I will say again it is too small to have these stats mean anything)

    75% of Cup Winners came from the top four teams in the league.
    18.75% of top four teams won the Stanley Cup

    Then there are some obvious follow along questions:

    Is being a top four team a repeatable outcome. How many teams that were top four this year will be top four next year? Two years from now? Three years from now?

    And what do we know about why some teams keep showing up in the top four and keep winning cups for that matter?

    What do we know about the dark horse teams that won cups. One did it from below 8th overall twice in the last twelve years (Los Anglese). Another (Pittsburgh) did it from the 8 slot but then went on to win twice from 4 and 2. How does that work? Is there even any lesson we can take away?

    When we have answers to these questions we could start looking at setting odds.

    But I am guessing the best we could do is to successfully predict about 60% of the regular season and maybe 75% of the postseason.

  106. jtblack says:

    If we trade down, would we look at this guy (profiled on Oilers nation) – Henri Jokiharju

    Still 17. Slow start and then put up 29 pts in his last 35 reg season games. RHD.

    Although is seems like they will pick an F with their 1st pick …

  107. Rondo says:

    jtblack:
    If we trade down, would we look at this guy (profiled on Oilers nation) – Henri Jokiharju

    Still 17.Slow start and then put up 29 pts in his last 35 reg season games. RHD.

    Although is seems like they will pick an F with their 1st pick …

    I’m liking Joshua Norris at #22 today.

  108. blainer says:

    Clarkenstein:
    LT for weeks now I’ve seen your projected roster for the new season. I’m seeing no change at the C position which finished 30th in faceoffs. It would be incredulous to think this team could ice the same lineup at C and expect a better result. Chia knows this and I’d expect he’s already working on it.

    Now this is exactly the way I believe this is going down.

    Chia WILL get a faceoff winning center way before he signs a wing. TMc values centers much more than wingers and will want as many as he can get.

    After the faceoff debacle we just experienced in the playoffs I expect an offer to Boyle if a trade isn’t made.

    Not sure if the right deal for ebs is out there at this time but if there is I bet it’s for a D and that Chia will have a trade or signing in place before he is moved .. much like how the Hall trade and Lucic signing occurred.

    I also will be very surprised if a center isn’t drafted in the first round.

  109. Ducey says:

    VOR,

    Thanks for your reply.

    Given the high impact of luck, should we then be getting excited about Corsi and Woodmoney, and other ways to measure the value of teams/ players?

    Seems like whether Demers has a nice CF% or GF% is based largely on luck?

  110. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    Great stuff. yah, I was just looking for “simplistic odds” – 18.75% as a starting point for Top 4 Teams sounds good to me.

    As far as getting into how to build a competitive team year in and year out, I wrote some notes on this at the start of they year …. I can share tomorrow if interested …

    thx

  111. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Jordan, all of the major professional sports leagues in North America retain human error and judgement in the officiating of their product.

    Humans decide the strike zone in baseball.
    Humans decide pass interference intent in football.
    Humans decide personal foul intent in basketball. Incidentially the lack of traveling calls in the NBA are absolutely egregious. It’s a core rule of basketball that is consistently and flagrantly ignored at the professional level.

    Because of this, when mistakes are made (which is inevitable when human error is factored in), and those mistakes affect the final result ESPECIALLY when it’s your team affected, this is the spark for the conspiracy fire.

    Google officiating and conspiracy for any of the other 4 major leagues and you’ll find commentary similar to what you’re claiming today.

    But, as with almost all conspiracy theories, Occam’s Razor applies and in this instance, the easiest and most obvious explanation is refs are human beings empowered to officiate a sport that occurs at extremely high speed and these human beings make mistakes from time to time.

    And this applies to video review as well, because most of these calls are extremely close either way (rarely are they as cut and dried as you’d like) and thus judgement plays a large determining factor in their outcome. From my pov, there are rarely calls where the NHL is 100% egregiously wrong. More often than not, the calls are highly debatable either way and the error, if any, results from the fact that the NHL rule book is so rarely iron clad and so often, subject to human interpretation.

    I think its highlighted in the playoffs because apparently the GM’s tell the refs to let them play during the post season. So they are directed not to call stuff.

    It must be tough to be an NHL ref.

  112. knighttown says:

    Yeah I’m one of those guys who is dead against the conspiracy theory as to why reffing is bad in the NHL. I think it helps my perspective that I don’t live in an NHL city. I’m in NS and so my sports news is a bit more diverse and I can tell you ALL teams think they are getting screwed. We know Calgary made a huge stink (with evidence) around the Wideman thing. Winnipeg has played that card a lot over the years as they often league the league in penalties taken. But there was another team, I think Tampa, that has some major concerns with biased reffing.

    I remember going hard after G-Money when he spent more time here to back up his assertion that the refs were being told to target the Oilers.

    For the theorists, what exactly is the current theory on who the refs have been told to help?

    It’s usually big market teams like NYR, Chicago and LA but of the final 4 only Anaheim is a good size city and that’s if you count it as LA.

    Is it anti-Canadian bias? Well there was one team in the final 4 which is statistically accurate in a 30 team league. And why give the Canadian teams McDavid, Matthews, Laine, Hall, Nuge etc? Really making your refs work hard to screw you once you give them that age.

    Is it that Gary wants to prop up his small market southern teams? Nashville works here and maybe Anaheim (if you want to argue both sides of the same coin) but the NHL OWNS Arizona and they can’t get a sniff.

    There’s no grand plan to screw the Oilers or prop up team X. It’s just that the reffing sucks.

  113. Ducey says:

    Rondo: I’m likingJoshua Norris at #22 today.

    If there is a debate, I’d stay away from a guy going to college. The fact that these guys can go UFA at the end of 4 yrs is scary.

    Also, with that last name, he needs to play defense.

  114. blainer says:

    Rondo: I’m likingJoshua Norris at #22 today.

    +1

  115. Rondo says:

    Ducey,

    Ha ha. He sounds like a Kesler type player.

  116. blainer says:

    Ducey: If there is a debate, I’d stay away from a guy going to college. The fact that these guys can go UFA at the end of 4 yrs is scary.

    Also, with that last name, he needs to play defense.

    I would def agree with you on this but… Connor McDavid.

    Still it is a risk.

    Has he committed to school or would the AHL be an option..

  117. knighttown says:

    As to why the reffing sucks? It’s just good old fashioned fear.

    “We want the players to decide the game”

    If anyone at league offices ever utter that statement they should be fired on the spot.

    We don’t want to allow another Matt Duchene 10 feet offside goal so we’re going to never have a goal allowed that is even close to offside. Forget video review, I KNOW the linesman are told to call it offside if it doesn’t look right because the FEAR of allowing a goal that was offside is much worse than the fear of a play being blown dead 1 that shouldn’t have been because no one will remember it 2 seconds after it happens. It’s warped logic and it drives me nuts.

    Refusing to call penalties in the 3rd period is completely unfair to the trailing team as they need goals to comeback and more goals are scored 5v4 than 5v5.

    And the reality is that fans will have no problem dealing with an end-of-game call as every other sport has (at least tried) to be consistent for years.

    Imagine if the umps refused to call a strike 3 in the 9th because they didn’t want to affect the game?

    Imagine if the refs refused to call pass interference in the last two minutes and just “let them play”

    Imagine if you were allowed to tackle Stef Curry when he’s down 2 with 20 seconds left because he should “have to fight through it”?

    Thank God for the automatic puck over glass and a few of the obvious too many men penalties or they’d literally call nothing.

  118. blainer says:

    Chia tends to pull off trades that surprise us and are off the radar.

    This is one that would catch us off guard.

    Bjugstad and Pysyk/Petro for Ebs with Florida retaining money on that toxic contract Bjugstad has.

    They need scoring and Ebs can provide it especially being on the 1st PP.

    This would be this years Maroon trade. Am I expecting it … No.. but it is the type of trade Chia would surprise with..

  119. Jordan says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    If your rules are designed to require human interpretation, you’ve designed a system intended to create bias. There is no need. The rulebook can be changed, and has been. It’s been changed to incur more control by the head office. It’s set up to ensure there are more bad calls or non-calls because they generate free press and incite emotional responses.

    Want to make sure someone responds emotionally instead of rationally? Imply intentional injustice.

    knighttown,

    KT – The very fact that there is any management of the refs other than “call the penalties on the ice” ensures the games cannot be called fairly.

    It wasn’t that bad a cross check. It might not have been a slew foot. He only interfered for a couple of seconds.

    It’s garbage rationalization of failing to perform your intended role because your boss told you to.

    Ergo – the NHL is impacting the outcome of its playoffs. This is not news. What’s news is that it’s blatant and there is intent. My only question is: What’s the intent? What’s the End-goal?

  120. VOR says:

    knighttown,

    We actually know quite a bit about NHL officiating bias and I wonder if there are teams that exploit these biases. If not, there should be.

    For example,

    If refs have called two penalties in a row on one team they are far more likely to call the next penalty on the other team.

    If you are playing at home you can count on every stupid ticky tack obstruction call going against the visiting team.

    Regardless of home or road the team that is the agressor in the first period (as measured by hits and yes penalties against) actually ends up getting called far less than the non-agressor in the first – in the third period. Yes, odd as it seems if you beat the crap out of your opponent in the first you get a free pass in the third.

    So why wouldn’t every team come out (at least at home) hitting every thing that moves, skating right through people, and generally practicing ass hattery of all kinds?

    The first two penalties are going to go against them but if they keep coming they will get a bad call agains tthe other team and by the third they will be free to do whatever they want. Which means if they have the lead they can hold, trap, obstruct, and run rough shod over the visting team with near complete immunity. Thus making it very hard for the other team to get back in the game.

  121. Marc says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Please send in the following format. Entries eligible untill the first transaction and/or Vegas draft:

    1 Pouliot
    2 Yamamoto
    3 No
    4 No
    5 Brossoit
    6 0
    7 $9.7M x 8
    8 $6.75M x 8
    9 Nate Prosser/Griffen Reinhart
    10 Hanzal
    11 Yes
    12 3

  122. VOR says:

    Ducey:
    VOR,

    Thanks for your reply.

    Given the high impact of luck, should we then be getting excited about Corsi and Woodmoney, and other ways to measure the value of teams/ players?

    Seems like whether Demers has a nice CF% or GF% is based largely on luck?

    Ducey, I hear where you are coming from. But here is the thing. I think the preponderance of the evidence is suggesting that skill always matters but that the delta (the difference in Corsi or Fenwick or DFF) has to be high to overcome the luck threshold and matter. In the regular season that threshold is just too high. However, in the playoffs these advance stats seem to be more predictive than regular stats and that makes sense because the luck threshold is lower. This may well be telling us that if you are building a knighttown team that you need to base your personal decisions heavily on advanced stats.

    So knighttown team equals

    1. Get into top four in league.
    2. Have a team with great advanced stats. Obviously way easier said than done.

  123. Scungilli Slushy says:

    stevezie: I’m just not sure I buy this. The instigator is a two minute penalty. Guys take dumb two minute penalties on the semi-regular. Macleod fought Boll, took a two minute instigator. Why not just jump Kessler? From a strategic point, this would be much better use of a two minute instigator than rushing Boll.

    Maybe not, turtling is a thing nowadays, but the retaliation aspect is a part of the instigator idea and that is certainly a disincentive to protect yourself.

  124. theres oil in virginia says:

    stevezie,

    Yep, I agree with all you said.

  125. JDI says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    stevezie,

    Yep, I agree with all you said.

    Well this is a complete bore.

  126. theres oil in virginia says:

    knighttown: Thank God for the automatic puck over glass and a few of the obvious too many men penalties or they’d literally call nothing.

    Alright, I was prepared to let a lot of disagreements pass, but this is too much. Calling nothing would be far better than watching an endless parade of hooking, slashing, interference, etc be let go and then getting a stupid puck over glass power play. Imagine a world in which breaking a guy’s hand (slashing) is equivalent to inadvertently putting the puck over the glass…wait, you don’t have to imagine it, it’s the NHL.

  127. Thinker says:

    JDI: Well this is a complete bore.

    I disagree with you vehemently. Your mother was a hamster, and your father smelt of elderberries.

  128. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jordan:
    Bag of Pucks,

    If your rules are designed to require human interpretation, you’ve designed a system intended to create bias.

    The intention is not to create bias. The intention is to create a system that provide humans the ability to exercise judgement in the application of rules. The legal system does the same thing.

    The core of your argument is rules application should be 100% black and white and there should never be shades of grey. This is simply not a feasible objective in human dynamics imo. We as a species will always push the limits thus requiring human governance and oversight.

    We all know the speed limit and the vast majority of us choose to ignore it to get where we’re going faster. By the same token, NHL players know the rules. But when a game is on the line, they’re going to bend those rules as much as they can in their favour. And for the most part as fans, we benefit from this because culturally, hockey has always been a sport that pushes the limits of legality. We celebrate the fact that this sport has an elbow here, a hook there, etc. because culturally and historically, this aspect of pushing the limits within the game has always been cultivated, celebrated and encouraged.

    Have you ever seen a ‘ticky tack’ game where the ref calls everything by the letter of the rule book? It’s the worst hockey imaginable, It becomes a very sterile product with no flow or intensity. And the minute the refs stop doing it, the players revert back to pushing the limits.

    At the end of the day, it’s not the league or the refs pushing the limits thus requiring this judgement and oversight. It’s the players. So, if they’re the ones cheating, why are you so keen to apportion blame to the officials and/or league?

    You’re not railing against the NHL. You’re railing against human nature.

  129. theres oil in virginia says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    BTW, that’s fake indigance, in case there was ever any question about it.

  130. theres oil in virginia says:

    JDI: Well this is a complete bore.

    Don’t worry, I’m picking up the pace in my next post!

  131. dustrock says:

    I fart in your general direction!

  132. JDI says:

    Thinker,

    Tell someone who cares, ya scabby, ferret-wearing cockwomble!

  133. Dominoiler says:

    This team needs a 2-way RHC with a range of skills and the wheels to keep up w the modern game.. these moves miss the mark, imo..

    Question, will petrovik be Vegas’s forth best RHD?.. i have my doubts, so why would he be on the trading block for an unproven scorer?..

    Criticisms aside, i don’t have the answers but i hope chia has set his priorities closer to what I’ve outlined than bringing in an aged JW for a full season (great deadline add, but RHC is way too weak to be ignored)..

  134. Dominoiler says:

    Boom!

    Thanks for those comparisons, so well said!..

    knighttown:
    As to why the reffing sucks?It’s just good old fashioned fear.

    “We want the players to decide the game”

    If anyone at league offices ever utter that statement they should be fired on the spot.

    We don’t want to allow another Matt Duchene 10 feet offside goal so we’re going to never have a goal allowed that is even close to offside.Forget video review, I KNOW the linesman are told to call it offside if it doesn’t look right because the FEAR of allowing a goal that was offside is much worse than the fear of a play being blown dead 1 that shouldn’t have been because no one will remember it 2 seconds after it happens.It’s warped logic and it drives me nuts.

    Refusing to call penalties in the 3rd period is completely unfair to the trailing team as they need goals to comeback and more goals are scored 5v4 than 5v5.

    And the reality is that fans will have no problem dealing with an end-of-game call as every other sport has (at least tried) to be consistent for years.

    Imagine if the umps refused to call a strike 3 in the 9th because they didn’t want to affect the game?

    Imagine if the refs refused to call pass interference in the last two minutes and just “let them play”

    Imagine if you were allowed to tackle Stef Curry when he’s down 2 with 20 seconds left because he should “have to fight through it”?

    Thank God for the automatic puck over glass and a few of the obvious too many men penalties or they’d literally call nothing.

  135. JDI says:

    Edmonton Oilers Retweeted
    NHL‏Verified account @NHL 5m5 minutes ago

    The fans have spoken. The 1984-85 @EdmontonOilers have been voted the Greatest NHL Team of all time! https://atnhl.com/2stc945 #NHL100

    I think it’s safe to say that the fans don’t remember the great teams that Rat Westick, Cyclone Taylor or Steamer Maxwell played on.

  136. stevezie says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    stevezie,

    Yep, I agree with all you said.

    I respect that.

  137. stevezie says:

    bendelson,

    Clearly this stopped clock in on 24 hour time.

  138. Professor Q says:

    JDI:
    Edmonton Oilers Retweeted
    NHL‏Verified account @NHL 5m5 minutes ago


    The fans have spoken. The 1984-85 @EdmontonOilers have been voted the Greatest NHL Team of all time! https://atnhl.com/2stc945#NHL100

    I think it’s safe to say that the fans don’t remember the great teams that Rat Westick, Cyclone Taylor or Steamer Maxwell played on.

    Yeah, where are the 23-24 Canadiens and 29-30 Bruins?!

  139. JDI says:

    Professor Q,

    And the nought-nine Ottawa Onion Belts!

  140. JDI says:

    Glenn Campbell could have done a good job of the US anthem.

  141. HT Joe says:

    Professor Q: Yeah, where are the 23-24 Canadiens and 29-30 Bruins?!

    *searches wikipedia
    Holy smokes… I didn’t realize that an Edmonton hockey team was in the cup finals 3 times by 1923 (lost each team unfortunately).

  142. jake70 says:

    McDavid if you are reading, study how Crosby just scored on his breakaway. You could score 40 a year if you convert more on breakaways, of which you get plenty.

    Back to originally scheduled posting….

  143. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey

    It must be tough to be an NHL ref.

    I’d do it in a heartbeat, but then again, I like pissing off large groups of people ; )

  144. BlueNoteNorth says:

    LT, cannot see your man-crush Fayne on any future Oilers roster.

    When Gryba eats your lunch, your days are done.

    When Reinhart plays a game in the playoffs, your days are done.

    Resigning Gryba roughly equals the dollars saved by burying Fayne in the minors.

    imo that will happen before Fayne gets another look from TMac.

  145. Yak Efron says:

    Model looks, favorite musician Neil Young.

    Nolan Patrick might make it.

  146. JDI says:

    Frederick Hockey!

  147. Centre of attention says:

    That Arvidsson dude is ridiculous. Nice effort by Neil & Fischer too.

    That goal made me shout “wooo!” in real life and I’m not even a Preds fan. Hockey’s damn exciting when it’s moving at this pace. Everyone loves a break away.

  148. hags9k says:

    Agreed, that was just a great goal.

  149. JDI says:

    Centre of attention: Nice effort by Neil & Fischer too.

    That was the definition of ‘hard work’ leading to a great goal. And I still can’t believe Fisher got that puck through with a one-hand effort like that.

  150. Centre of attention says:

    Ahhhh that’s the swarm I know and love. Penguins running around in their own zone like chickens with their heads cut off.

    It’s great comedy when it’s not your team doing it haha.

  151. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    Just a superior thread here, folks. Kudos to all involved. It’s so good I fired it up as intermission reading (with the game muted) and forgot to go back and watch the start of the 2nd.

  152. Centre of attention says:

    Bless you Charles. We all want to see the Alligator eat Roenick, too.

  153. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention:
    Bless you Charles. We all want to see the Alligator eat Roenick, too.

    Just like Chubbs?

  154. Centre of attention says:

    Professor Q,

    I think that Charles dude should just get his ass fired with the NBA and get hired with Sportsnet.

    Every intermission would be “Lit AF” as the kids say.

  155. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention,

    Agreed. Get Snoop Dogg to co-host. He loves hockey.

  156. Centre of attention says:

    Professor Q:
    Centre of attention,

    Agreed. Get Snoop Dogg to co-host. He loves hockey.

    “A little skate-zizzle to the left-izzle before he spin-zizzle and pimp-slap-shot that pucknizzle top shelf!”

  157. Jaxon says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1) Pitlick.
    2) Vilardi.
    3) Yes. Vilardi (#3 Overall). Lehtonen and Brett Ritchie for Eberle, #22 overall, Khaira, Jones, Ellis and Fayne.
    4) Yes. Gallagher, Plekanec, 2nd Round Pick for Nugent-Hopkins, Pouliot, 3rd Round Pick.
    5) Lehtonen.
    6) 0.
    7) $9.7/5
    8) $6.7/5
    9) Reinhart/Stone
    10) Plekanec
    11) Yes
    12) 3

  158. JDI says:

    Professor Q: Just like Chubbs?

    Jub jub?

    Edit

  159. JDI says:

    One game in the next five days?

  160. Centre of attention says:

    Gonggggggg sssshhhhhhoooowwwwwwwww

  161. Professor Q says:

    What a shyte show. Does anyone really know what’s going on?

  162. Professor Q says:

    JDI: Jub jub?

    Edit

    No, Chubbs from Happy Gilmore. Not an Ewok.

  163. Professor Q says:

    JDI:
    One game in the next five days?

    Thursday then Sunday. Why skip a perfectly good Saturday slot?

  164. MrEd says:

    The best refs in the world manage these games.

    I’m missing the evening post LT.

  165. JDI says:

    Professor Q: No

    It’s so difficult to keep up with pop culture references. I’m going to have to rewatch every movie from the last 20 years…

  166. MrEd says:

    That the NHL manages the refs is crazy talk. Period.

  167. MrEd says:

    That the NHL is attempting to relieve the refs of some of the calls that are simply too fast or particular to the eye to call is an issue.

  168. MrEd says:

    Health and Safety should be the rulebook. It’s a game.

  169. JDI says:

    MrEd:
    That the NHL manages the refs is crazy talk.Period.

    Well Kerry Fraser says you’re wrong. His interview can be found on tsn.ca/nhl.

  170. MrEd says:

    JDI,

    Today’s NHL is not a Kerry Fraser league. Obviously.

  171. Lowetide says:

    MrEd:
    The best refs in the world manage these games.

    I’m missing the evening post LT.

    I drove back from Medicine Hat this afternoon, just got in. I’ll make up for it, promise. 🙂

  172. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: I drove back from Medicine Hat this afternoon, just got in. I’ll make up for it, promise.

    No make up necessary!

    We had a bangin’ thread going anyways.

    How was the drive?

  173. MrEd says:

    Lowetide,

    Safe drive man.
    Stanley still isn’t in the house.

  174. JDI says:

    MrEd:
    JDI,

    Today’s NHL is not a Kerry Fraser league.Obviously.

    Yeah, I guess it’s your league now. Fraser knows nothing about the inner workings of it.

    Full stop. I think that trumps ‘period’.

  175. MrEd says:

    JDI,

    Fraser didn’t wear a helmet.

  176. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: No make up necessary!

    We had a bangin’ thread going anyways.

    How was the drive?

    Helluva wind!

  177. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: Helluva wind!

    Have you ever been to Ft McLeod (west of lethbridge) in the spring?

    It’s so windy there they say you could lose your hat and chase it all the way to medicine!

    Haha. Ha. Gosh that was lame.

  178. Professor Q says:

    JDI: It’s so difficult to keep up with pop culture references. I’m going to have to rewatch every movie from the last 20 years…

    I’m lost too so no worries on that front! 😌

  179. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    Next time you are in Lethbridge (if ever), I will show you some hospitality! Whixh equals beer and chicken wings??

  180. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    Lowetide,

    Next time you are in Lethbridge (if ever), I will show you some hospitality!Whixh equals beer and chicken wings??

    Hello!

  181. SwedishPoster says:

    Good morning from Sweden! Today is the swedish national day, our version of Canada day, not celebrated with nearly the same oomph as a trump lot of other countries, patriotism is a bit frowned upon here. I’m one of those frowners but still, congrats Sweden!

    Just read the post and thread while drinking my morning coffee, great read both LT and threaders.
    My 2 öre(swedish cent) is that hockey historically has a romantic view on breaking the rules, we like some rough and tumble, we like when the little engine that could stops the superstar by getting under his skin(as long as it’s not our own star), as mentioned above bending and breaking the rules has always been a part of the hockey lore, the most popular hockey film is slapshot ffs. The refs are ofc aware of that, they are human beings and likely hockey fans themselves. And all this was fine when the big stars were so much better than the lesser players, when the tactics weren’t as finetuned, when the goalies stood up with tiny protection and slightly hungover. The stars still had room to shine. But today? When every player is an elite athlete, every big defensive D has a skating coach, when the coaching is so much more advanced and everything is broken down into video sessions. Then the rough and tumble, the late crosscheck, the constant interference becomes a much bigger issue because it kills all the space. And I think until the NHL execs stop with the old school view on hockey this will go on. And that might take a while if the gushing over Keslers defensive play is an indicator, it’s an issue when the best defensive forward title is really given to the best interferer.

    I still think hockey is highly entertaining, especially when the speed is at it’s highest so I disagree with the whole ‘the product is terrible’ that sometimes is heard and I have little time for conspiracies but would love for the skill guys to get some more room. And also for the defensive plays to be more about skill and less about good old rulebending.

    Sleep well in the other time zone.

  182. Bruce McCurdy says:

    MrEd:
    JDI,

    Fraser didn’t wear a helmet.

    Not true. He wore a lid of molded VO5.

  183. Andy Dufresne says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Hi Kinger

    1) Jordan Eberle Garth Snow demands Chia retains salary in an Ebs for Hamonic deal. Chia opts for plan B. Moves Eberle to Vegas in expansion draft (no salary retained) for a D like Pysyk (2.5 mil 25year old, right shooting D). Deal in esscence becomes Eberle for Pysyk, Reinhart and $3.5 million in cap space. Eberle is a showman…Vegas is his stage. Vegas GM is in dire need of young top line/top six talent. (whether its this deal or another, Eberles optimum trade value resides with Vegas)
    2) Issac Ratcliffe LW 6.5 200lbs ( Ratcliffe is my answer but Oilers might take RW Yamamoto if they don’t feel confident about signing Foo)
    3) Yes (see above) Pysyk
    4) NO
    5) Broissoit
    6) 3.33 x 3 (This is a hometown discount to play in Alberta w/McDavid)
    7) 8 x 12.5 (This IS a hometown discount for a generational talent)
    8) 8 x 7.75 (This IS a hometown discount for the next Jagr/Thornton i.e. Thorgr)
    9) Russell and Reinhart
    10) Justin Williams 2 x 3.25 (right shooting playoff performer place holder for Foo and Jessie)
    11) YES (0nly thing that could prevent this is short term cap space issue)
    12) 3 (3 roster trades 2 free agent signings (Williams and Cullen or Bonino) 2 college signings)

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