RE 16-17 KRIS RUSSELL: PLANET TELEX

The Edmonton Oilers spent the summer projecting Griffin Reinhart into a top 6D role but found out early in camp that solution would be unsatisfactory. Ordinarily that kind of mistake punishes a team from October to June, but Kris Russell was still available, his price lower than expected. The deal came together quickly and worked out very well for all  involved. What’s next? (Planet Telex)

 KRIS RUSSELL 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.60 (7th among regular defensemen)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.23 (one point in 18 minutes)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 46.4
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: -5.8
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 47.8
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -1.1 (35 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 68 shots/1.5%
  • Boxcars: 68, 1-12-13
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

 REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS

  • None
  1. When did they sign him? October 7.
  2. When did he play his first NHL game with the team? October 12 against Calgary, he had two assists and played 20:09 for Edmonton.
  3. Impressive. The first half (or so) of his season was very good. Now, he was running one giant mountain of good luck but as long as you’re rolling doubles.
  4. No one seems to agree about him. Oilers fans and observers are very passionate, have strong views and appear to have an abundance of leisure time.
  5. Which is it? Is he any good? Russell has some good things and a few items that are a worry.
  6. Let’s start with the negative. His possession number (Corsi for 5×5 percentage) is poor and his Woodmoney totals against elites suggest he would be more effective with fewer minutes against the NHL’s best players.
  7. Anything else? Russell’s numbers without Connor McDavid on the ice really dive. With 97, he finished 48.7 Corsi for 5×5, without him 45.1 (in 795 minutes).
  8. Did McDavid play well with Russell? 97 scored 2.48/60 with Russell and posted 48.7 Corsi for 5×5.
  9. McDavid without Russell? 3.07/60 scoring and 54.8 Corsi for 5×5. A massive uptick in  performance and possession.
  10. Why such a gap? Russell is a defense first option, doesn’t move the puck so much as get it out of harm’s way. Edmonton’s rush is not under control when Russell handles the puck. Andrej Sekera is the headman passer on the pairing.
  11. Is he the least effective puck mover (defense) on last year’s team? I’d rate him ahead of Eric Gryba.
  12. Okay, the positive. His Woodmonies are not bad considering the amount of time he played against them. If you put those numbers up against the other members of the top 4D he looks reasonably effective.
  13. Hit me. Russell played 35 percent of his 5×5 time against elite, going 47.8 Dangerous Fenwick percentage. Andrej Sekera was 35 percent and 47.0; Oscar Klefbom was 34 percent and 48 percent DFF %; Adam Larsson was most impressive, going 48.5 DFF and playing 35 percent of his 5×5 minutes against elites.
  14. I keep hearing about good shot metrics. Russell led the Oilers in 5×5 shots-against 60 (27.44) with a solid number. That ranked him No. 40 league wide for 2016-17.
  15. Is that good? I prefer Corsi. Woodmoney is my new favorite. Shots against/60 have value but Russell’s number was over 30 a year ago so how much importance are you going to give it?
  16. Will they sign him? Yes. I’ve said they would all along and remain convinced. Russell will sign with Edmonton and play LH side until Sekera returns. Suspect he switches to RHD at that time.
  17. What proof do you have about his returning? Peter Chiarelli:  “I want to have Kris back.”
  18. Pretty flimsy. I think he’s coming back.
  19. How well did he play in the postseason? His playing time increased past 22 minutes as the coach relied more and more on him (partly due to injury, some due to others inexperience).
  20. Do you think it is a mistake? I think Russell was a bargain this past season and with Sekera’s injury the die is cast. He is known to the team, the coach trusts him and the overall results were positive. Rare for a team to turn away from an option that worked out so well.
  21. What will his contract look like? $4 million times two, something like that, would be my guess. Suspect it won’t be a long-term deal but the money is going to be quite a bit north of what he signed for last year.
  22. Why this song? This might be my favorite song by the band, I needed to place it somewhere. Incredibly, I could not find a defender to fit ‘everything is broken’. Should have run a Radiohead RE 2007-16.

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39 Responses to "RE 16-17 KRIS RUSSELL: PLANET TELEX"

  1. Andy Dufresne says:

    God Bless John Short……have him on again please.

    Russell takes hometown haircut…..3.33 x 3 …….to play in Alberta……with Conner……and get his name on Stanley.

    (Maybe 3 years…4, 3.5, 2.5 Hopefully no NMC)

    Why didn’t Russell get his $4M x 4year deal last summer?

  2. Doug McLachlan says:

    “No one seems to agree about him. Oilers fans and observers are very passionate, have strong views and appear to have an abundance of leisure time.”

    LT, this is the Oilogosphere condensed into one package. Genius.

  3. godot10 says:

    //Russell led the Oilers in 5×5 shots-against 60 (27.44) with a solid number. That ranked him No. 40 league wide for 2016-17.//

    This stat is bogus because of all the time he sits behind the net doing Russell Resets, instead of moving the puck quickly, which is what a good defensemen would do. Makes Russell defensive stats seem better than it really are.

    It is why Connor’s (and everyone else’s) offense and shot metrics is so much worse relatively which Russell is on the ice.

    Stats can lie if you don’t view them in proper context.

  4. godot10 says:

    //Rare for a team to turn away from an option that worked out so well.//

    Bill Belichek does this all the time, often while they are still stars. Lawyer Milloy, Richard Seymour, Deion Branch, Logan Mankins, Jamie Collins, Chandler Jones

    Sentimentality for what you did for Bill in the past has zero weight.

  5. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    God Bless John Short……have him on again please.

    Russell takes hometown haircut…..3.33 x 3 …….to play in Alberta……with Conner……and get his name on Stanley.

    (Maybe 3 years…4, 3.5, 2.5 Hopefully no NMC)

    Why didn’t Russell get his $4M x 4year deal last summer?

    Russell is not a good enough defensemen for a Stanley Cup winner. Signing Russell is wasting the last year of Connor’s ELC, and one year Nugent-Hopkins remaining time as an Oilers.

  6. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    //Russell led the Oilers in 5×5 shots-against 60 (27.44) with a solid number. That ranked him No. 40 league wide for 2016-17.//

    This stat is bogus because of all the time he sits behind the net doing Russell Resets, instead of moving the puck quickly, which is what a good defensemen would do.Makes Russell defensive stats seem better than it really are.

    It is why Connor’s (and everyone else’s) offense and shot metrics is so much worse relatively which Russell is on the ice.

    Stats can lie if you don’t view them in proper context.

    Yes. I am not a fan of the stat.

  7. leadfarmer says:

    People get too worked up about the Russell reset. Sometimes controlling the pace of the game is important especially with how many youngens we employ. Those stats are also on his off side

  8. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: Yes. I am not a fan of the stat.

    – Great post LT! You might not be the biggest fan of Russel, but here’s some interesting stats:

    1) Over the last 3 years, he is 41st in Defensive Zone starts (interestingly Larsson is 2nd: one day I will post about all the things about Larsson that are top-20 RHD in the league)

    2) Over the last 3 years, his TOI at even strength is 49th in the league

    3) His individual Fenwick is 80th, his shots on net 81st 5×5

    4) His 34 GA 5×5 was 2nd in league to Weber

    – It’s clear if you take usage as a proxy for how player is valued, he is trusted. Coaches are using different stats to evaluate Russel than we are (or management is just plain stupid, and the information we can glean from public available stats prove this)

    – I agree that he is likely back. He is “better” than the stats that are being leaned on (I just cherry picked a bunch that cast him as top-4 D). 3 x 3.5, pay a little more first year would be fair, IMO

    – The biggest part of the off-season puzzle, is how high does Chia think he needs to go for the other D, does he tread water waiting for Sek, or what?

    – The options for this other top-6 D:
    1) Fayne/Griff internally (don’t think Chia is “reasonably confident with the current D”)
    2) Roman Polack/Kulikov/Scheen 3rd liner that only costs money
    3) a not perfect better D like Dumba/Del Zotto/Harmonic that will cost Ebs +,
    4) a shoot for the moon, back up the truck for a Faulk type game changer,
    5) hope for another college signing (Benning v.2)?

    – I really don’t have a feel for what is best way to proceed.

  9. stush18 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    If eberle is traded for hamonic, then I am fin with running

    Klefbom-larsson
    Russel-hamonic
    Nurse-benning
    Reinhart-gryba

    I honestly think it all depends on what vegas does. If we can get a dman cheap from them, I don’t think russel will sign. Reinharts time is now

  10. stush18 says:

    One thing I’m curious about is they really didn’t use him on he power play at all this year. He’s been used as a PP2 option before, so I was surprised he wasn’t now.

    If hamonic is grabbed, I’d love to run larsson on the second PP unit. I think he has a very underrated offensive game. He posted pretty similar numbers to klefbom at even strength if I’m not mistaken.

  11. JDI says:

    stush18: didn’t use him on he power play at all this year.

    Only when Seksy went down with the knee injury against Analheim, and then he looked pretty good.

  12. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Great post LT!You might not be the biggest fan of Russel, but here’s some interesting stats:

    1) Over the last 3 years, he is 41st in Defensive Zone starts (interestingly Larsson is 2nd: one day I will post about all the things about Larsson that are top-20 RHD in the league)

    2) Over the last 3 years, his TOI at even strength is 49th in the league

    3) His individual Fenwick is 80th, his shots on net 81st5×5

    4) His 34 GA 5×5 was 2nd in league to Weber

    – It’s clear if you take usage as a proxy for howplayer is valued, he is trusted.Coaches are using different stats to evaluate Russel than we are (or management is just plain stupid, and the information we can glean from public available stats prove this)

    – I agree that he is likely back. He is “better” than the stats that are being leaned on (I just cherry picked a bunch that cast him as top-4 D). 3 x 3.5,pay a little more first year would be fair, IMO

    – The biggest part of the off-season puzzle, is how high does Chia think he needs to go for the other D, does he tread water waiting for Sek, or what?

    – The options for this other top-6 D:
    1) Fayne/Griff internally (don’t think Chia is “reasonably confident with the current D”)
    2) Roman Polack/Kulikov/Scheen 3rd liner that only costs money
    3)a not perfect better D like Dumba/Del Zotto/Harmonic that will cost Ebs +,
    4)a shoot for the moon, back up the truck for a Faulk type game changer,
    5)hope for another college signing (Benning v.2)?

    – I really don’t have a feel for what is best way to proceed.

    Zone time stats would really be helpful. I think Russell might be a Tippett Phenomenon, defends like a madman because he gets trapped. Wastes the forwards skill taking far too long ‘resetting’.

    Every team delays for changing, not many stand behind the net for a minute waiting for the breakout to set. Good D stay out front and pass to a player on the fly as they come on.

    These days if you allow the other team to set up and play in their system it’s hard to get offense. The Oilers GF issues are related to a weak breakout and too much D zone time IMO. To get better they need to break up attacks quicker and transition quicker.

    Tempo is king, tempo is created by fast thinking brains and fast boots.

  13. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – And Russel is actually really good at the D part of preventing goals when he’s one ice over the last three years: He’s allowed 142 GA 5×5, 32nd D in the league (playing min 3000 mins).

    – Not allowing goals is important, and moreso for a heavy DZone starts D. Is that 3 years of luck?

  14. Centre of attention says:

    IDK if we can guarantee the return is Hamonic.

    Odds are you are getting some of spare parts like Strome and a second round pick. Seriously.

    Some thoughts on this subject:

    1: It won’t mess with Chia’s 7-3-1 mantra if you’re just getting another forward in return for Ebs.

    2: Chia doesn’t mind doing bad trades.

    3: I don’t like this trade one bit

    If I was GM and I’m not getting Hamonic I hang up and call Jim Nill again. Or someone else. More fish in the pond. Downgrading from Eberle to Strome and getting a lottery ticket isn’t helping me win the cup next year.

  15. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Centre of attention:
    IDK if we can guarantee the return is Hamonic.

    Odds are you are getting some of spare parts like Strome and a second round pick. Seriously.

    Some thoughts on this subject:

    1: It won’t mess with Chia’s 7-3-1 mantra if you’re just getting another forward in return for Ebs.

    2: Chia doesn’t mind doing bad trades.

    3: I don’t like this trade one bit

    If I was GM and I’m not getting Hamonic I hang up and call Jim Nill again. Or someone else. More fish in the pond. Downgrading from Eberle to Strome and getting a lottery ticket isn’t helping me win the cup next year.

    We have no idea what the Oilers like, right? Given the team wasn’t good enough to win the Cup, what do you suggest Chiarelli should do?

  16. MrEd says:

    I’d back end this club.
    Larson, Klef, Sek, Hamonic, Nurce, Benning….
    Talbot+

  17. digger50 says:

    Centre of attention:
    IDK if we can guarantee the return is Hamonic.

    Odds are you are getting some of spare parts like Strome and a second round pick. Seriously.

    Some thoughts on this subject:

    1: It won’t mess with Chia’s 7-3-1 mantra if you’re just getting another forward in return for Ebs.

    2: Chia doesn’t mind doing bad trades.

    3: I don’t like this trade one bit

    If I was GM and I’m not getting Hamonic I hang up and call Jim Nill again. Or someone else. More fish in the pond. Downgrading from Eberle to Strome and getting a lottery ticket isn’t helping me win the cup next year.

    This is so absolutely true and upsetting at the same time!!

    In the AM blog, posters were expressing concern about receiving enough value from Hamonic. Well hang onto your hats because we may be blown away with the return.

    Peter has produced a good result, this is true and have to give him credit. However, he shops like a rich man. Not a lot of negotiating that I can see. Maybe this is not true, perhaps he negotiated many times and walked away?

    But what I see is most of his trades are have been relatively easy. The other team wants to rid themselves of the player so easy negotiation. (Kassian, Marroon, Desharnias,) Offered money (Korpikoski, Lucic, Sekera, last minute Russel) offered ice time (Benning, Caguila) or had a higher chip value to play. (Hall for Lason and pick #16 and #32 for Rienhart)

    Still pretty good GM’ing really. But if he wants to move someone he does not get all down in the muck to come away with the best deal. Thus I think we see another trade with a net loss in talent, and this should be a concern to all fans.

    Im voicing a concern.

    Some GM’s are going to come away winners in the next four weeks, hope Peter does not get shut out.

    Perhaps realistically:

    Ebs is out
    a 2M player plus third round pick is in
    sign Foo for a spot on the wing
    sign Russel / Kassian / Gryba
    sign Jan Rutta

    Is it enough?

  18. MrEd says:

    Rusty too.

  19. leadfarmer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – And Russel is actually really good at the Dpart of preventing goals when he’s one ice over the last three years: He’s allowed 142 GA 5×5, 32nd D in the league (playing min 3000 mins).

    – Not allowing goals is important, and moreso for a heavyDZone starts D.Is that 3 years of luck?

    Preventing goals is not important. What’s really important is resets/60.

  20. Diablo says:

    Centre of attention,

    Chia has gone on record saying there’s no pressing need to trade Ebs this year, as they can fit everyone under the cap.

    So then why is he shopping Ebs?

    Possibility #1 – he’s trying to get another RHD directly via trade
    Possibility #2 – he has another deal in place for a RHD (using some combination of the #22 pick, next year’s 1st round pick, prospects) and needs to move out salary to make it work.

    We’ve seen that this is how he operates (Hall-Larsson trade, then signing Lucic).

    I don’t like just getting Strome + picks for Eberle either, but I don’t think he cares much about “who won the trade”. His approach to roster building appears to be more along the lines of “money out versus money in.”

    So it could be that he wants to get some young players and picks for Ebs, so that he can move some young players and picks for a RHD or RHC or RW – no one seems to have any idea right now what he’s targeting.

  21. Diablo says:

    digger50,

    I suspect that there will be a large portion of the fan base that hates on Chia no matter what he gets in return for Ebs (or how his cap space is used to upgrade the roster).

    Like Hall, Eberle has been a fan favourite for a long time. Despite the recent negative press, most of us would rather see him succeed in an Oilers uniform, than get sent packing.

  22. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – And Russel is actually really good at the Dpart of preventing goals when he’s one ice over the last three years: He’s allowed 142 GA 5×5, 32nd D in the league (playing min 3000 mins).

    – Not allowing goals is important, and moreso for a heavyDZone starts D.Is that 3 years of luck?

    Russell’s 2016-2017 GF% and CF% with his three most common centres:

    McDavid -GF% 68.8 CF% 48.7
    Draisaitl -GF% 55.4 CF% 49.5
    Hopkins -GF% 49.8 CF% 43.9

    Larsson 2016 -2017

    McDavid -GF% 59 CF% 52.3
    Draisaitl -GF% 52.8 CF% 52.9
    Hopkins -GF% 54.2 CF% 48.4

    Sekera 2016-2017

    McDavid -GF% 68.4 CF% 51.7
    Draisaitl – GF% 55.9 CF% 51.4
    Hopkins -GF% 40 CF% 47.6

    Klefbom 2016 2017
    McDavid – GF% 58.9 CF% 51.7
    Draisaitl – GF% 48.9 CF% 50.2
    Hopkins -GF% 46.9 CF% 49.7

    Russell has a three year history of a better GF% than CF%, which is counter intuitive. Maybe he’s some kind of goal whisperer. The only player not like this with him was Monahan. Very strange, likely behind what the Oilers are looking at when McLellan or Chia said he puts the puck in the right places for the forwards to score.

    On the Oilers we know the QC was pretty even in the top four. The good money says he’s back at term. Ferrrrreeeenccccce!

  23. digger50 says:

    Diablo:
    Centre of attention,

    Chia has gone on record saying there’s no pressing need to trade Ebs this year, as they can fit everyone under the cap.

    So then why is he shopping Ebs?

    Possibility #1 – he’s trying to get another RHD directly via trade
    Possibility #2 – he has another deal in place for a RHD (using some combination of the #22 pick, next year’s 1st round pick, prospects) and needs to move out salary to make it work.

    We’ve seen that this is how he operates (Hall-Larsson trade, then signing Lucic).

    I don’t like just getting Strome + picks for Eberle either, but I don’t think he cares much about “who won the trade”. His approach to roster building appears to be more along the lines of “money out versus money in.”

    So it could be that he wants to get some young players and picks for Ebs, so that he can move some young players and picks for a RHD or RHC or RW – no one seems to have any idea right now what he’s targeting.

    If he takes Eberle talent and turns that talent into a top 4 dman, I would call that success. Maybe it will be something unusual like loading up picks to flip over to Vegas and get the target player.

    Also, as a smart man, I wonder how he can ignore the glaring need for third line center who can win a face off. He alluded to it, he knows if he can fill that spot the coach has huge versatility.

  24. Rondo says:

    Eberle for Strome and R. Pulock I would be in.

  25. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Klef Larsson
    Russell Benning
    Nurse Gryba

    then

    Klef Larsson
    Sekera Russell
    Nurse Benning

    Cap forward out for a younger or cheaper forward or pick.

  26. digger50 says:

    Diablo:
    digger50,

    I suspect that there will be a large portion of the fan base that hates on Chia no matter what he gets in return for Ebs (or how his cap space is used to upgrade the roster).

    Like Hall, Eberle has been a fan favourite for a long time. Despite the recent negative press, most of us would rather see him succeed in an Oilers uniform, than get sent packing.

    I am finding that this armchair GMing for the summer is a nice hobby. However, the fan in me would love to see Eberle, Nuge, Hendriks, here for a ring.

  27. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    – Over the last 3 years, Russel has been on the ice for 165 GF, 19th best 5×5 D in the league

    – Over the last 4 years, 212 GF: 26th.

    – A lot of years of being lucky to be at the right place at the right team when your teammates score

  28. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    – Over the last 3 years, Russel has been on the ice for 165 GF, 19th best 5×5 D in the league

    – Over the last 4 years, 212 GF: 26th.

    – A lot of years of being lucky to be at the right place at the right team when your teammates score

    It sure looks that way. I hope he outlasts his term and doesn’t get NMC/NTC.

  29. Centre of attention says:

    Rondo,

    No way they trade Pulock.

    Diablo,

    Agree, hard to read Chiarelli. I believe the Oilers want Hamonic, which would be a good deal. I just think Snow offers up chopped liver to see if trader Pete takes the bait (he might).

    if he’s using the cap savings to make another move, maybe you’re starting to make sense. otherwise whats the point?

    digger50,

    I agree, Chiarelli has a habit of losing value or getting questionable value from trades. You can call that “shopping rich” or just simply poor asset management. You can start from the Kaberle trade and work your way to the Hall for Larsson trade and make a pretty damning list.

  30. Rondo says:

    Centre of attention:
    Rondo,

    No way they trade Pulock.

    Diablo,

    Agree, hard to read Chiarelli. I believe the Oilers want Hamonic, which would be a good deal. I just think Snow offers up chopped liver to see if trader Pete takes the bait (he might).

    if he’s using the cap savings to make another move, maybe you’re starting to make sense. otherwise whats the point?

    digger50,

    I agree, Chiarelli has a habit of losing value or getting questionable value from trades. You can call that “shopping rich” or just simply poor asset management. You can start from the Kaberle trade and work your way to the Hall for Larsson trade and make a pretty damning list.

    I know

  31. Ryan says:

    Diablo:
    Centre of attention,

    Chia has gone on record saying there’s no pressing need to trade Ebs this year, as they can fit everyone under the cap.

    So then why is he shopping Ebs?

    Possibility #1 – he’s trying to get another RHD directly via trade
    Possibility #2 – he has another deal in place for a RHD (using some combination of the #22 pick, next year’s 1st round pick, prospects) and needs to move out salary to make it work.

    We’ve seen that this is how he operates (Hall-Larsson trade, then signing Lucic).

    I don’t like just getting Strome + picks for Eberle either, but I don’t think he cares much about “who won the trade”. His approach to roster building appears to be more along the lines of “money out versus money in.”

    So it could be that he wants to get some young players and picks for Ebs, so that he can move some young players and picks for a RHD or RHC or RW – no one seems to have any idea right now what he’s targeting.

    I would say that there are plenty of reasons why Chiarelli is shopping Eberle. I know Eberle is a fan favorite ensconced in the culture of Oilers blogger fans.

    1. He needs to clear cap space eventually and the sooner he does it the better. If he waits to the last minute, he’ll be over the barrel.

    2. He’s not a heavy or heavy on the puck type Chiarelli hockey player.

    3. As you’ve mentioned, there’s an opportunity to acquire a RS dman for a discount pre expansion draft from a team that wants to go 7-3-1 and can’t protect one of their top four.

    4. From an asset perspective, it’s sort of imperative to trade Eberle now. Let’s say he waits until the end of the next season to trade Eberle… History tells us that you don’t get much for a top six winger with a year left on the ticket.

    there’s a range of scenarios.

    A. Eberle gets injured and you can’t trade him
    B. Eberle has a crappy next season and at $6m you can’t move him.
    C. Eberle has a similar season, but only one year left on the ticket. Less value than now.
    D. Eberle has an amazing season, but he only has one year left on his contract at the end, so you still don’t get much in return.

    5. He’s paid six million dollars and doesn’t fit on line 1 or PP1.

    6. Maybe you can get Kovalchuk on a short-term deal.

  32. stush18 says:

    JDI: Only when Seksy went down with the knee injury against Analheim, and then he looked pretty good.

    Agreed. I think we’re not utilizing him to his full potential. Grabbing someone like hamonic realeases him from his even strength duties.

  33. Centre of attention says:

    Ryan,

    Of all the reasons I’ve heard people suggest Eberle must be traded immediately, holding out for a possible Kovalchuk sign & trade is probably the worst one yet lol. No offense.

  34. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10:
    //Russell led the Oilers in 5×5 shots-against 60 (27.44) with a solid number. That ranked him No. 40 league wide for 2016-17.//

    This stat is bogus because of all the time he sits behind the net doing Russell Resets, instead of moving the puck quickly, which is what a good defensemen would do.Makes Russell defensive stats seem better than it really are.

    It is why Connor’s (and everyone else’s) offense and shot metrics is so much worse relatively which Russell is on the ice.

    Stats can lie if you don’t view them in proper context.

    So you don’t rate his low shots against but will rip him for his low shots for.

    I see “low event” & there is some value in that. Especially in a league that rewards low scoring hockey with extra standings points. Which is very different from saying that I LIKE it.

    Scungilli Slushy:

    Russell has a three year history of a better GF% than CF%, which is counter intuitive. Maybe he’s some kind of goal whisperer. The only player not like this with him was Monahan. Very strange, likely behind what the Oilers are looking at when McLellan or Chia said he puts the puck in the right places for the forwards to score.

    Russell has a SIX year history of better GF% than CF%, and the gap between the two has been substantial on an every-year basis. I’m not sure that “goal whisperer” is the answer, but am also not sure that conventional analytics has an answer.

    I looked at Russell’s history here, but I’m not confident I made sense of it either. His is a strange case.

  35. GCW_69 says:

    Did McDavid play well with Russell? 97 scored 2.48/60 with Russell and posted 48.7 Corsi for 5×5.
    McDavid without Russell? 3.07/60 scoring and 54.8 Corsi for 5×5. A massive uptick in performance and possession.

    Do you have this for all the defenders used this year? Might be interesting to see Russell’s stats in context.

  36. Ryan says:

    Centre of attention:
    Ryan,

    Of all the reasons I’ve heard people suggest Eberle must be traded immediately, holding out for a possible Kovalchuk sign & trade is probably the worst one yet lol. No offense.

    No offense taken at all.

    Have a good chuckle, get it out of your system..

    Then circle back here after next season and compare their boxcars.

  37. Ryan says:

    Ryan: No offense taken at all.

    Have a good chuckle, get it out of your system..

    Then circle back here after next season and compare their boxcars.

    Of course all bets are off if Kovalchuk ends up on a team like the Golden Knights and Eberle’s on a line with Seguin and Benn or something.

  38. russ99 says:

    Any metrics-based discussion for a defenseman is skewed when all you’re talking about is shots for and goals for.

    Pissing contests about how your metrics are better than my metrics and coming up with theories based on a narrow minded view of just your favorite stats about how some players are great and some are garbage is a big cause for the growing disdain for the hockey metrics community.

    If we’re being empirical about the numbers than all metrics have validity, even the ones that don’t mesh with the Corsi For, all-puck movers, defense doesn’t exist, unicorns, “oiler hockey” grand unified theory.

  39. Whatif says:

    Rightly or wrongly, I sense group think relating to an Eberle trade.

    On the surface, NYI seem a good trading partner. However, last year Chiarelli went off the board to acquire Larsson. I sense he may do something similar in terms of the player he targets.

    I see Barrie and Faulk as potential targets plus someone we don’t readily think of. What if he targets Dumba or a D man from some other team that may be facing expansion problems?

    I look forward to seeing what shakes out in terms of D but also what he is able to do to strengthen our Centre position. We need someone who can help in the face off circle and play soundly in a physical and defensive role.

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