JUST LIKE A BULLET LEAVES A GUN

Later this month, Connor McDavid will accept the first major award given to an Edmonton Oilers player in 27 years. Amazing. I hope the young man wins more than just the Art Ross Trophy, as he earned the Hart Trophy as well. Since we’re still waiting for off-ice action (and these moves could be days away with the SCF possibly wrapping up Sunday) let’s establish the June hockey schedule.

JUNE 2017 SCHEDULE

  • Monday, June 12. Deadline for NHL teams to ask players with NMC’s to waive the no movement for the purposes of making them available for the expansion draft. Edmonton has three men who qualify (Milan Lucic, Andrej Sekera, Cam Talbot) and none are expected to be asked to move the clause.
  • Thursday, June 15. Buyout window opens. I think Benoit  Pouliot and Mark Fayne are candidates, it’ll be interesting to see if there is a trade market for one or both. Buyout is not a perfect solution but if money is tight this move could help.
  • Friday, June 16. Final day to place a player on waivers before the expansion draft. Unlikely the Oilers use this option.
  • Saturday, June 17. Expansion draft roster freeze, protected lists submitted.
  • Sunday, June 18. Publishing of expansion protected lists.
  • June 18-21. Golden Knights can negotiate with and sign unrestricted free agents and unprotected restricted free agents.
  • Wednesday, June 21. Vegas Golden Knights announce their roster. Oilers lose a player.
  • Wednesday, June 21. NHL Awards, busy night for Connor McDavid.
  • Wednesday, June 21. Adidas new jerseys released for all 31 teams.
  • Friday June, 23. The NHL holds the first round of Entry draft.
  • Saturday, June 24. NHL’s entry draft continues, rounds two through seven.
  • Sunday, June 25. Free agents free to talk to all NHL teams.
  • Friday, June 30. NHL cap for 2017-18 is set.
  • Saturday, July 1. NHL’s free agency opens.

MOCK DRAFT!

For fun, I’m going to do another mock using Craig Button’s final list as my guideline (and running my list against it). We’ll see if we can get through seven rounds without going beyond my 150.

  • First Round: No. 22 overall—R Owen Tippett, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). He covers 3 important categories (size, speed, sniper). His NHLE (30.8) doesn’t tell his entire offensive story. Tippett is a world class shooter, posting 284 shots in 60 games. He scored 44 goals on those 284 shots, he made a lot happen in the offensive zone. I ranked him No. 3 on my final list, can’t imagine Tippett falls so far but it’s a wonderful dream.
  • Third Round: No. 82 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)—RC Ivan Lodnia, Erie Otters (OHL). Small skill F, great skater. He is more playmaker than shooter, and despite lack of size can hold off checkers and maintain possession. I have him No. 27 on my list.
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall—RC Scott Reedy, USNDTP (USHL). Center with speed, range of skills, dynamic. Has some elements associated with a power forward and possesses a good shot. I could see the Oilers taking him at No. 22 overall, I had him at No. 29 overall on my final list.
  • Fourth Round: No. 115 overall—F Andrey Altybarmakyan, St.Petersburg (MHL).  The math is strong on this one. I have him No. 60 on my final list.
  • Fifth Round: No. 126 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen)—L Jacob Tortora, USNDTP (USHL). He is a burner and he is skilled and he is small. I ranked him No. 72 on my final list.
  • Fifth Round: No. 146 overall—LD Josh Brook, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Mobile, dependable, emerging. Could be a find. He was No. 75 on my list.
  • Sixth Round: No. 177 overall—G Daniil Tarasov, Ufa (MHL). Tall thin goalie impressed at U18s. Had him No. 76.
  • Seventh Round: No. 208 overall—R Emil Oksanen, Espoo (Mestis). Skilled winger, great shot, he can scoot. I ranked him No. 77.
  • Button list.
  • My ranking.

If Tippett falls someone will trade up to get him, and it might be the Oilers. I can’t believe he’ll drop past No. 10 though, Bob McKenzie has him No. 6 in the late April ranking. He is fast and is a volume shooter, so despite being one-dimensional he picked the correct dimension. Impossible for the Oilers to get three picks like Tippett, Lodnia and Reedy where they are picking but it’s a fabulous dream.

TRADE BAIT 2016 and 2017

As we discussed a week ago, on June 2 2016 Taylor Hall’s name wasn’t on the TSN Trade Bait list. By June 22, he was No. 25 among 30 names, with Edmonton’s No. 4 overall selection, RNH, Jordan Eberle and Nail Yakupov all ahead of Hall. A week later, Adam Larsson was an Oiler.

I’ve tweaked my list of possible assets out (below), but I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of late movement (as in Hall a year ago). My list from one year ago (sorted by most likely to be dealt):

  1. Benoit Pouliot
  2. Mark Fayne
  3. Nail Yakupov
  4. No. 4 overall selection
  5. Young LHD (Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart, Brandon Davidson)
  6. Cap space
  7. 2017 1st round selection
  8. Jordan Eberle
  9. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  10. Leon Draisaitl
  11. Taylor Hall
  12. Source

I had Hall on the trade list, but listed as least likely to be dealt. It was a longshot until late, very late. I think, based on what we know now, PC had planned on using the pick to address need. As it turned out, he dealt Hall and drafted a power forward closer in age to the McDavid cluster. We won’t know for some time if JP can push the river, but the reasoning behind last summer is in the history books and can be evaluated moving forward. I think there are fewer actual options this year, and that means it is more likely we’ll see the names at the top going (if a substantial trade is to be made).

ASSETS OUT LIST, SUMMER 2017

  1. Jordan Eberle
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  3. Cap space
  4. Jesse Puljujarvi
  5. Anton Slepyshev
  6. Caleb Jones
  7. No. 22 overall
  8. 2018 first-round selection
  9. Benoit Pouliot
  10. Jujhar Khaira
  11. Ethan Bear
  12. Griffin Reinhart
  13. Mark Fayne

It will be damned hard to get the Oilers into a conversation about impact options this summer (Drew Doughty was being thrown around yesterday) based on this list. I think PC’s options in a case of that kind (Doughty) might be Jesse Puljujarvi or combining Nuge and Eberle in a deal. I’ll keep those three at the top, and have moved No. 22 overall down just a little based on the interesting names that may be available at that number. I get at least one comment expressing rage over including Anton Slepyshev on this list, but please understand he has extra value because of his being ineligible for the expansion draft. That could be key, as could cap space.

*Note: The Doughty reference above doesn’t come from Bob Stauffer’s mentioning of Doughty. He referenced the name yesterday in context of a “Golden State Warriors Dream Team” and was clearly not a rumor. However, I read a lot of references on twitter and received dm’s on the subject, sparking the paragraph above.

SPENCER FOO

Another factor in this summer’s business is Spencer Foo. The young free-agent winger will be on the Dave Jamieson Show today between noon and 2pm. It’ll be interesting to see what his throught process is at this time and how close he is to making a decision.

Should Foo sign with Edmonton, it increases (imo) the chances of PC dealing one of the younger RW pieces but does not make it necessary. If the club has Puljujarvi, Slepyshev and Foo for two spots on the NHL depth chart, it’s very easy to send one (JP?) down and that may in fact be the case. Drake Caggiula stayed up all year, chances are Foo will get the same guarantee should he sign with Edmonton.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show, we’ll kick off a summer weekend with some fun and frolic. TSN1260, 10 this morning. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Sidney Crosby hammered PK Subban’s head into the ice about eight times last night. Why are people blaming Subban?
  • Simon Boisvert, Prospect Insider. Simon will give me his opinion on the current market value of men like Eberle, Nuge and Jesse Puljujarvi.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Preview of the Eskimos game on Sunday, and where does Spencer Foo sit on the Oilers RW depth chart?
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. We’ll preview our Saturday expansion draft show.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes!

 

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65 Responses to "JUST LIKE A BULLET LEAVES A GUN"

  1. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Did you see Hockey Prospect final rankings my 2nd favourite of rankings.

    https://www.hockeyprospect.com/hockeyprospect-com-2017-nhl-draft-final-rankings/

    They have Tippet at at #22 .

    #22- Joshua Norris or CHYTIL, FILIP

  2. 36 percent body fat says:

    Caggulia should not have been in the NHL Period last year. Slepyshev was the superior player yet yielded so much ice time to caggulia (who play all situations?) as a rookie.

    No ice time guarantees, the only guarantee should be is that after a year or 2 in the AHL you will be playing on a team with McDavid and Draisaitl and in a new arena. If you are their faster good for you but it will be based on MERRIT!

  3. --hudson-- says:

    Do the Oilers have the ability to take a player to arbitration to open the second buyout window?

    If possible it would be nice to hold off on buyouts, until the Oilers know they can’t move it during the expected trade frenzy

  4. TO10801 says:

    –hudson–,

    Based on capfriendly they could file for arbitration with Kassian or Simpson. Might be worth it to see if they could offload pouliot or fayne.

  5. Brantford Boy says:

    LT,
    I am confused of your order of Assets Out 2017, is it ranked (ie: most likely to be moved out) like you did above for the Trade Bait list? I see RNH at #2 but I thought everyone here and their sister agreed he proved his worth despite the low boxcars. In some cases it makes sense having Griffin at the end because he’s most likely to be selected. In this case I would have RNH at like #9B.

    Also, the thought of ‘guaranteeing’ another rookie minutes, as was probably the case with Caggiula, and quite possibly JP makes my stomach turn. Like this blog’s writer does, placing life stories and lessons into the blog, there are no guarantee’s in life and hockey players shouldn’t get this type of treatment. He should have to earn them. A ‘condition’ I could live with, like you play well past the 20 games and you’ll stay for another 20, but the whole season from day #1 just seems like poor management (and I like Chiarelli), promising a player who could seriously anchor a team.

  6. boneshj says:

    I don’t think edmonton can buy out Fayne or Pouliot and have enough players meeting the requirements for the expansion draft without exposing someone else. Maybe they could get creative with a Pouliot and just expose Letestu, but they have no option on defense to replace Fayne unless they expose Larson or Klefbom or sign someone that gets exposed (who in their right mind would accept that contract).

  7. TO10801 says:

    boneshj,

    I think the buyout window extends past the expansion draft

  8. dustrock says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    Did you see Hockey Prospect final rankings my 2nd favouriteof rankings.

    https://www.hockeyprospect.com/hockeyprospect-com-2017-nhl-draft-final-rankings/

    They have Tippet at at #22 .

    #22- Joshua Norris or CHYTIL, FILIP

    It would be hard to pass on Robert Thomas, RHC at 22. I like him over Norris and Chytil, though they’re all good selections.

    They also have Tolvanen available there and I think he’s not that far behind Tippett.

  9. Ducey says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Caggulia should not have been in the NHL Period last year.Slepyshev was the superior player yet yielded so much ice time to caggulia (who play all situations?) as a rookie.

    No ice time guarantees, the only guarantee should be is that after a year or 2 in the AHL you will be playing on a team with McDavid and Draisaitl and in a new arena.If you are their faster good for you but it will be based on MERRIT!

    Slepy was coming off a year when he got one point in 11 NHL games and 21 points in 49 AHL games. He had not established himself at all. He was not pushed to the AHL by the Drake (who played LW and C); he was competing with JP.

    I really doubt Caggiula was guaranteed he would not be sent down or that Foo would get that guarantee. Even if they trade Eberle, they likely replace him with a veteran, leaving Vet, Slepy, JP, Kassian ahead of Foo.

  10. Rondo says:

    dustrock,

    This year’s draft after the top 8 or 9 the rankings are all over the place.

    My guess mock top 10.

    1. HISCHIER, NICO
    2 .PATRICK, NOLAN
    3. HEISKANEN, MIRO
    4.MAKAR, CALE
    5.GLASS, CODY
    6.VILARDI, GABRIEL
    7.TIPPETT, OWEN
    8.MITTELSTADT, CASEY
    9.PETTERSSON, ELIAS
    10. NECAS, MARTIN

  11. boneshj says:

    TO10801:
    boneshj,

    I think the buyout window extends past the expansion draft

    Yeah, I think you’re right. I got confused with the roster freeze shortly after it opens thinking that it was a short opening.

  12. dustrock says:

    Rondo,

    yeah, going to be a weird year.

    I think we’ll see many teams’ fans going “I wanted that guy, couldn’t believe he fell to #____, and then we didn’t pick him!” 😀

    I think you’ve probably got the top 10 pegged. Tolvanen has an outside chance. Maybe Kostin or Lias Andersson. Maybe Rasmussen.

  13. N64 says:

    “Buyout is not a perfect solution but if money is tight this move could help.”

    If money is going to be tighter next year with 97’s contract can’t see them buying anyone out this year when they can buy out next year and retire the buyout hit a year earlier. Chia has to find the better solutions.

  14. --hudson-- says:

    TO10801:
    –hudson–,

    Based on capfriendly they could file for arbitration with Kassian or Simpson. Might be worth it to see if they could offload pouliot or fayne.

    Very cool, thank you! I guess one other option is to trade for an RFA who is eligible

  15. jtblack says:

    NCAA players and the process by which they are acquired seems strange … Here’s some questions for our NCAA Experts.

    1) Can players only be drafted until they are 20? IE: why wasn’t Foo drafted last year if he hit the radar? same as Cagg, etc …
    2) The draft is equal for all teams. plain and simple. Bidding on NCAA prospects is totally unfair .. The New York, Chicago’s, L.A.’s of the world are much more attractive (hello Jimmy Vesey) .. Is any NCAA free agent going to choose Winnipeg? doubt it .. we have McD now and are winning, so we can attract some but, the playing field does not seem level .. (Is anyone going to Carolina ?)
    3) When someone like Foo comes out, why isn’t he just made eligible for the entry draft. I understand he’s older and more NHL ready, but so be it .. somebody could pick him in the top 10 ..

  16. jtblack says:

    “I hope the young man wins more than just the Art Ross Trophy, as he earned the Hart Trophy as well.”

    It will be a sham if McD doesn’t get the Hart ….

    Watching Crosby last night, I can’t help but dream of McD in the same stratosphere … Crosby has played 12 years. Been to Cup final 4 times (4 Pennants!) … If McD and the Oilers can come anywhere near that record, it would be amazing .. Croz still has 1/2 dozen good years left as well ..

  17. --hudson-- says:

    boneshj:
    I don’t think edmonton can buy out Fayne or Pouliot and have enough players meeting the requirements for the expansion draft without exposing someone else.Maybe they could get creative with a Pouliot and just expose Letestu, but they have no option on defense to replace Fayne unless they expose Larson or Klefbom or sign someone that gets exposed (who in their right mind would accept that contract).

    That’s a really great point! Likely rules out a buyout in the first window for a lot of teams. Man I hope Chia can take advantage of a desperate GM

  18. TO10801 says:

    jtblack,

    I think I can provide some answers here.
    1) Each player has 3 years of draft eligibility, for example this year players with a birthdate between Sept. 15, 1999 (I think the date is somewhere around there) to Sept. 14, 1997. A player like Estephan is a re-entry this year since BUF did not sign him.
    2) The Entry Draft is NOT equal. Say the Oilers select Isaac Ratcliffe at #22. If he hates Edmonton and has no desire to come here, he can refuse to sign and will re-enter the draft in 2019. Obviously this rarely, if ever, happens but it can happen for CHL prospects just as it did with Vesey. Obviously college players are different since a team holds their rights until they have completed their college eligibility, but irregardless after 4 years any player can become a free agent. The big markets will always have an advantage, it is unavoidable, but thank god the majority of players sign with the team that drafted them.
    3) That’s just the rules. This is why I would advocate for a draft year for say 20 year olds. You could keep kids at home longer and the CHL could have 17-21 year olds. It would keep kids at home longer, which I believe would be a benefit. It would also allow teams to catch guys like Caggiula and Foo instead of them being free agents. Obviously there will be problems with generational players, but I’m sure they could figure out a system to allow exceptional players as they have in the CHL.

    To summarize, drafting a player only gives you their rights, however regardless of where you draft a player from they will always have the ability to walk.

    EDIT: Tobias Reider is a good example of a player that did not want to sign in Edmonton, so we traded him to try an recoup some assets and not lose him for nothing (although Kessey turned out to be nothing)

  19. jtblack says:

    TO10801,

    Thanks. Makes some sense …. With more and more players choosing the NCAA route and more players each year being college free agents, I think the League should look at some way to all these NCAA players to be drafted until they are 22 (most kids don’t go there until they are 19 ish) …

    In the case of Estephan, it’s not his choice to go back in the draft, Buffalo chose not to sign him … But the interesting thing is, if we treated this example more like the NCAA, why shouldn’t estephan just be free to play with whoever will sign him (like Foo et al); why does he have to be redrafted?? In my eyes hes should be just like Foo and sign where ever he likes

  20. jtblack says:

    Replacing Ebs 20 Goals. This seems to be the big argument against Trading Ebs. “How are we going to replace those 20 Goals?” …. Is that a valid stance (not arguing, trying to get answers / knowledge) ..

    When Hall left he scored 26 Goals, and Oiler Nation thought how will we replace those Goals. Some guy named Maroon scored 27. Lucic got 23. Hall himself got 20 this year. Seems like they were “replaced”. And If Hall was here, there is no way that both Maroon and Lucic score 23+

    Dallas moved out James Neal with no replacement in 2014. Since then Dallas has been one of the highest scoring teams in the League …

    I guess my thought is that, If a player like Eberle was moved out, his Goals will be replaced, somehow, someway … Maybe due to more ice time and better opportunity; JP goes from 1 Goal – 15. Sleppy from 4 – 10. There’s 20. Maybe all 20 aren’t replaced, but I bet 15 will be by default.

    Just curious if you guys think replacing those goals is a legitimate concern or if history shows that the goals will be replaced in one way or another …

  21. Pink Socks says:

    jtblack:
    Replacing Ebs 20 Goals.

    I agree with you 100% and your point is right on the money. When Ebs is moved out, it either opens up the ice time for the new FA signing, or the JP’s and Sleps of the roster end up with more markers.

  22. Ducey says:

    jtblack:
    Replacing Ebs 20 Goals. This seems to be the big argument against Trading Ebs. “How are we going to replace those 20 Goals?” …. Is that a valid stance (not arguing, trying to get answers / knowledge) ..

    When Hall left he scored 26 Goals, and Oiler Nation thought how will we replace those Goals.Some guy named Maroon scored 27.Lucic got 23.Hall himself got 20 this year. Seems like they were “replaced”.And If Hall was here, there is no way that both Maroon and Lucic score 23+

    Dallas moved out James Neal with no replacement in 2014.Since then Dallas has been one of the highest scoring teams in the League …

    I guess my thought is that, If a player like Eberle was moved out, his Goals will be replaced, somehow, someway … Maybe due to more ice time and better opportunity; JP goes from 1 Goal– 15. Sleppy from 4 – 10.There’s 20.Maybe all 20 aren’t replaced, but I bet 15 will be by default.

    Just curious if you guys think replacing those goals is a legitimate concern or if history shows that the goals will be replaced in one way or another …

    Goals are not reallocated to the next employee on the factory floor.

    Better players score more goals than worse players.

    The is no doubt the Oilers would have been better with Hall and Larsson than just with Larsson. If you have a better lineup you give less time to Hendricks and Pak.

    They are better with Eberle than without him.

    The only question is whether they can replace him with a better player/ group of players.

  23. Pink Socks says:

    Ducey: Goals are not reallocated to the next employee on the factory floor.

    Better players score more goals than worse players.

    The is no doubt the Oilers would have been better with Hall and Larsson than just with Larsson. If you have a better lineup you give less time to Hendricks and Pak.

    They are better with Eberle than without him.

    The only question is whether they can replace him with a better player/ group of players.

    “Better” may not necessarily mean more than Eberle’s 20 goals, it can and should encompass more of a 200 foot game.

  24. jtblack says:

    Ducey,

    Goals are not reallocated to the next employee on the factory floor.

    Can you sight examples of this? Right now Jake Guetzel , Sheary and Rust are factory floor guys that have moved past Penguins of the past.

    Again, my stance is this. Outside of the Super Elite; I do think you can replace Goals from the next employee on the floor ….

  25. Cassandra says:

    jtblack,

    I would invite you to consider the animating idea of your post. By this logic goal scorers don’t really matter, since most of those goals will be scored by someone, and hence you shouldn’t try and assemble a roster that will score goals

    There is some truth to this. The worst team in the league last year still scored 166 goals. Las Vegas will score some goals. There is a baseline below which a team cannot fall. On a player by player basis this means you shouldn’t measure Eberle’s 20 goals against zero, but against how many goals a replacement level player would score given the same opportunity.

    However, this doesn’t mean that the goals are “replaced” one way or another, because what matters isn’t the first 10 goals, that are replaced it is the next 10, 20, or 30 because it is these marginal goals that separate the average teams from the good teams, and the good teams from the great teams.

    It is a lot easier to go from 200 goals to 240 than it is to go from 240 goals to 280, those extra goals that Eberle has the potential to score are what are difficult to replace. Moreover, Eberle is more playmaker than shooter, even if you replace his goals, you haven’t replaced his assists, the goals that others score. Everyone is talking about what a great year Maroon had with his 27 goals, but even with those 27 goals he had fewer points than Eberle, and all this with career high shooting percentage.

    Eberle is a better hockey player than Patrick Maroon, and it isn’t even close, and yet somehow Maroon is an important part of the team and Eberle is a one-dimensional player whose goals are easily replaced. Following your reasoning is how the Oilers are talking themselves into making a bad decision.

  26. TO10801 says:

    jtblack,

    Well sure Buffalo may have made that decision, but it could have been Estephan and the same situation would have resulted.

    The reason I believe is the amount of years the team holds the rights. So if you draft Bowers this year, be will go to Boston University for 4 years and the Oilers would hold his rights for the entirety of his college career. By contrast, they could select Yamamoto and hold his rights for two years, and then if he re-entered the subsequent team would hold his rights for an additional 2 years. Therefore, each player would have their rights held by a team for 4 years. It wouldn’t be fair for CHL players to be a free agent after 2, but college players would have to wait 4 years. The one caveat is that a guy like Benning was able to leave college early, and become a free agent so there is definitely problems with the system.

  27. Rondo says:

    Pink Socks,

    Eberle will be a better player because of his 1st playoff experience. He is going into his prime.

  28. Cassandra says:

    jtblack:
    Ducey,

    Goals are not reallocated to the next employee on the factory floor.

    Can you sight examples of this?Right now Jake Guetzel , Sheary and Rust are factory floor guys that have moved past Penguins of the past.

    Again, my stance is this. Outside of the Super Elite; I do think you can replace Goals from the next employee on the floor ….

    This isn’t even true on the Penguins. Guentzel shot the lights out in the AHL, he’s a good offensive player. If you replace him with Scott Wilson, the Penguins will score fewer goals.

    What you are talking about is chaining. Some of the goals are redistributed to the next guys on the factory floor by virtue of increased playing time and opportunity because you haven’t only subtracted the goals you’ve also increased the amount of playing time, especially playing time with good players. But each time you go down a notch, you leak goals, unless the players are equally as good.

    In order for your hypothesis to hold true the talent curve would have to be very steep at the top but then very, very, quickly, become flat.

    So if you want to duel with examples, I would say your chosen example does not fit the theory.

    It does suggest an alternative theory, however, which is that players who play with superelite players such as Crosby or Malkin are interchangeable because these players are so good anyone can score with them. This isn’t plausible on its face and in any case does not apply to Eberle since he didn’t play very much with McDavid this past year.

  29. Thinker says:

    Unless you are trading Larsson or Klefbom plus extras, I don’t think we have the assets to get Doughty.

  30. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    Cass! I enjoyed the first 3 paragraphs or your response .. then it kind of gets into personal player stuff ..

    To clarify. My points has nothing to do with Eberle himself. Let’s take names right our of the conversation, more an ideology. the names are just to make sense of the example .. we could use a different team, differnt players as well (like I did with James Neal Leaving Dallas) … and I also don’t want to debate Maroon vs this guy, or Ebs vs that guy ..

    More the overall ideolgogy of “can you replace goals with the next man up on the factory floor”. So to respond to your first 3 paragraphs.

    “Goal scorers don’t matter” – Nope, never said that. Of course they matter. Especially the elite ones.

    “Hence you shouldn’t try to assemble a roster that will score goals” – Nope never said that either

    “You shouldn’t measure Eberle’s 20 goals against zero, but against how many goals a replacement level player would score given the same opportunity.” – Now this is more interesting to me .. The only caveat is that I am not talking about replacing his goals with entry level players. In this case I am asking can a team replace 1 RW’s 20 Goalsk with a Super High Prospect (JP), a good player who has not shown much offense yet but is already a full time NHL player (Sleppy) and or maybe an NCAA guy like Foo … I certainly don’t think Matt Hendricks or Parkinen or any replacement level player could replace Ebs goals, even with the ice time / opportunity

    “because what matters isn’t the first 10 goals, that are replaced it is the next 10, 20, or 30 because it is these marginal goals that separate the average teams from the good teams” – I also find this interesting as well and agree with you. I guess I am a believer that JP or Foo or FA Signing (eaves, vrbata) can get 20. And just as you alluded, they have the potential to get more. If we give Ebs credit for “potential” then we have to give his replacement that same credit.

  31. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    “t does suggest an alternative theory, however, which is that players who play with superelite players such as Crosby or Malkin are interchangeable because these players are so good anyone can score with them) ….

    I believe in this theory …

  32. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: This isn’t even true on the Penguins.Guentzel shot the lights out in the AHL, he’s a good offensive player.If you replace him with Scott Wilson, the Penguins will score fewer goals.

    What you are talking about is chaining.Some of the goals are redistributed to the next guys on the factory floor by virtue of increased playing time and opportunity because you haven’t only subtracted the goals you’ve also increased the amount of playing time, especially playing time with good players.But each time you go down a notch, you leak goals, unless the players are equally as good.

    In order for your hypothesis to hold true the talent curve would have to be very steep at the top but then very, very, quickly, become flat.

    So if you want to duel with examples, I would say your chosen example does not fit the theory.

    It does suggest an alternative theory, however, which is that players who play with superelite players such as Crosby or Malkinare interchangeable because these players are so good anyone can score with them.This isn’t plausible on its face and in any case does not apply to Eberle since he didn’t play very much with McDavid this past year.

    Guentzel shot the lights out in the AHL at 22, JP didn’t light anything up but was certainly no slouch at 18. I would propose the hypothesis is more accurate than you suggest. Taking Sheary, who last year goes 44-7-3-10 vs. Slepyshev 41-4-6-10 is an awfully close comparison. In
    jtblack‘s suggestion, if I read more between the lines and how I understood, Guentzel = JP, Sheary/Rust = Slepyshev. There is certainly a risk in rolling the dice that JP becomes a Guentzel, and Slepyshev becomes a Sheary or a Rust, but the hypothesis is on the mark.

  33. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra:
    jtblack,

    Eberle is a better hockey player than Patrick Maroon, and it isn’t even close, and yet somehow Maroon is an important part of the team and Eberle is a one-dimensional player whose goals are easily replaced.Following your reasoning is how the Oilers are talking themselves into making a bad decision.

    Pretty sure there was no suggestion that Maroon is more valuable to a team than Eberle only considering the skill level of each player. Maroon’s production vs. Eberle’s production at their current salaries shows a better goal/$ ratio, sure, but I would also suggest that Maroon if moved out could also be replaced, either by your favorite Lucic, or perhaps by Caggiula. It is extremely important that management doesn’t royally screw up by giving Maroon a gigantic salary next summer.

  34. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    Some of the goals are redistributed to the next guys on the factory floor by virtue of increased playing time and opportunity because you haven’t only subtracted the goals you’ve also increased the amount of playing time, especially playing time with good players. ……………………

    That is exactly part of my ideology … It is a fact that if you remove a player who plays 16 mins a night on the top line or 2nd line, that another(s) player will get that opportunity .. so that is part of the discussion and equation … and it the reason why I believe the goals are more easily replaced than we originally think ….

  35. Cassandra says:

    jtblack:
    Cassandra,

    “t does suggest an alternative theory, however, which is that players who play with superelite players such as Crosby or Malkin are interchangeable because these players are so good anyone can score with them) ….

    I believe in this theory …

    It is World Cup time. Who do you play with Crosby and McDavid? Do you try and get the best players you can or do you just take whomever, on the theory that anyone can score with them?

    You would take the best players you could, because while anyone can score with them, better players will score more. This is true in the World Cup, and it is true in the NHL. Sure Connor Sheary will score 20 goals playing with Crosby, and Guenztlel might score 30, but there are players who would score 40. Those extra goals are the difference between good and great.

  36. Pink Socks says:

    Rondo:
    Pink Socks,

    Eberle will be a better player because of his 1st playoff experience. He is going into his prime.

    I agree the experience makes him a better player, I’m operating on the assumption he will be in a different jersey next season, and I’ll always cheer for him. If he is in Oiler silks next year, that’s great too. Your second sentence though about Ebs going into his prime, his Pts/60 suggest otherwise. I hope he turns it around.

  37. Cassandra says:

    jtblack:
    Cassandra,

    Some of the goals are redistributed to the next guys on the factory floor by virtue of increased playing time and opportunity because you haven’t only subtracted the goals you’ve also increased the amount of playing time, especially playing time with good players. ……………………

    That is exactly part of my ideology … It is a fact that if you remove a player who plays 16 mins a night on the top line or 2nd line, that another(s) player will get that opportunity .. so that is part of the discussion and equation … and it the reason why I believe the goals are more easily replaced than we originally think ….

    Well, I think that everyone already know this. It is too obvious not to be known. The fixed goals will be replaced, that is a certainty. However, this is irrelevant because the marginal goals won’t be replaced and the marginal goals are what matter.

  38. Ducey says:

    jtblack:
    Ducey,

    Goals are not reallocated to the next employee on the factory floor.

    Can you sight examples of this?Right now Jake Guetzel , Sheary and Rust are factory floor guys that have moved past Penguins of the past.

    Again, my stance is this. Outside of the Super Elite; I do think you can replace Goals from the next employee on the floor ….

    I am with Batman on this one.

    With your logic, the Oilers could replace Eberle with Pak or Mitch Moroz and not lose any goals. They would just be reallocated.

    And you ignore the fact that the Pens in the last 10 yrs have almost always cheaped out on at least one of the line mates for Crosby/ Malkin. The guys they have in now are replacing similar players from before.

  39. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: It is World Cup time.Who do you play with Crosby and McDavid?Do you try and get the best players you can or do you just take whomever, on the theory that anyone can score with them?

    You would take the best players you could, because while anyone can score with them, better players will score more. This is true in the World Cup, and it is true in the NHL.Sure Connor Sheary will score 20 goals playing with Crosby, and Guenztlel might score 30, but there are players who would score 40.Those extra goals are the difference between good and great.

    This would be an excellent point, except for the fact that there is no salary cap in the World Cup.

  40. Pink Socks says:

    Ducey: I am with Batman on this one.

    With your logic, the Oilers could replace Eberle with Pak or Mitch Moroz and not lose any goals. They would just be reallocated.

    And you ignore the fact that the Pens in the last 10 yrs have almost always cheaped out on at least one of the line mates for Crosby/ Malkin. The guys they have in now are replacing similar players from before.

    JT specifically said that Hendricks and Pak are not the replacements. JP and Slepy on the other hand have the makings of a sufficient replacement.

  41. Cassandra says:

    Pink Socks: Guentzel shot the lights out in the AHL at 22, JP didn’t light anything up but was certainly no slouch at 18.I would propose the hypothesis is more accurate than you suggest.Taking Sheary, who last year goes 44-7-3-10 vs. Slepyshev 41-4-6-10 is an awfully close comparison.In
    jtblack‘s suggestion, if I read more between the lines and how I understood, Guentzel = JP, Sheary/Rust = Slepyshev.There is certainly a risk in rolling the dice that JP becomes a Guentzel, and Slepyshev becomes a Sheary or a Rust, but the hypothesis is on the mark.

    But it doesn’t matter whether JP turns into Guenzel or not. If JP turns into Guentzel, Eberle is likely to score better than Slepyshev. If JP turns into Sheary, Eberle is likely to score better than Slepyshev, if JP turns into Yakupov, Eberle is likely to score better than Slepyshev.

    What JP does or doesn’t do is irrelevant to building the best team you can.

    Note: if you want to trade Eberle for a good defenseman I am fine with that. However, we all know that isn’t what is going to happen. Eberle is going to be traded for nothing under the idea that his goals can easily be replaced. This, I don’t agree with.

    Finally, the counterfactual test isn’t last year, it is next year. That is if the Oilers do trade Eberle and they score the same number of goals the hypothesis has not been proven.

  42. jtblack says:

    Ducey,

    I stated that in one of the past posts ( I certainly don’t think Matt Hendricks or Parkinen or any replacement level player could replace Ebs goals, even with the ice time / opportunity)

  43. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    (Finally, the counterfactual test isn’t last year, it is next year. That is if the Oilers do trade Eberle and they score the same number of goals the hypothesis has not been proven.) ….

    I am fine with this as well, but would ask; what, if anything will prove the hypothesis … Cause if you leave no option available or no REALISTIC option for the hypothesis to be proven, then your mind is already made up …

  44. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: But it doesn’t matter whether JP turns into Guenzel or not.If JP turns into Guentzel, Eberle is likely to score better than Slepyshev.If JP turns into Sheary, Eberle is likely to score better than Slepyshev, if JP turns into Yakupov, Eberle is likely to score better than Slepyshev.

    What JP does or doesn’t do is irrelevant to building the best team you can.

    Note: if you want to trade Eberle for a good defenseman I am fine with that.However, we all know that isn’t what is going to happen.Eberle is going to be traded for nothing under the idea that his goals can easily be replaced.This, I don’t agree with.

    Finally, the counterfactual test isn’t last year, it is next year.That is if the Oilers do trade Eberle and they score the same number of goals the hypothesis has not been proven.

    I don’t disagree with your underlying theory, but the fact remains that there is a salary cap to be considered, and since Eberle makes $6m next year, he is unfortunately most likely to be moved. If Eberle’s salary was the same as JP and Slepyshev, I totally agree, but the salaries are vastly different. What JP does is very much relevant to the discussion. If he maxes out and puts $3.5m in his bank while scoring 20-25, he replaced Eberle at half the cost. That has value.

    So if Eberle scores 25 next year, and Slepyshev scores 15, are those 10 more “marginal goals” as you call them worth $5m? Or is it better to have an additional $5m in a 2RD?

  45. jtblack says:

    jtblack,

    IE: as an example. IF JP scores 20 Goals and the Oilers score the exact same amount of goals, would you agree the hypothesis has been proven … Or …………

  46. Cassandra says:

    Pink Socks: JT specifically said that Hendricks and Pak are not the replacements. JP and Slepy on the other hand have the makings of a sufficient replacement.

    Actually, the suggestion was that anyone could replace them, ad infinitum. What else do you think the next guy on the factory floor means?

    But even if we take your revision as the proposition, it doesn’t hold because a) you have replaced 20 minutes of ice time with 30-35 minutes, b) there is no way either player projects to score the same as Eberle unless by project you mean wishcast, and c) even if JP scores 25 goals you still haven’t replaced Eberle’s goals because you could have had both. 25 + 20 is more than 25 + 10.

    The only thing in truly finite supply is first unit power play time, and Eberle scored his 50 points without that. Replacing the marginal production of his 50 points is not something that will happen automatically. By contrast, Lucic scored at less than replacement player level considering his opportunities. If you gave Slepyshev his icetime the Oilers would immediately score more goals.

  47. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    Sleppy can replace Lucic .. this is the exact converstaion .. I believe someone can replace Lucic (not sure it is Sleppy) … But if you agree to that, why do you always fight that NOBODY can replace Ebs 20 Goals …

  48. digger50 says:

    Cassandra:
    jtblack,

    I would invite you to consider the animating idea of your post.By this logic goal scorers don’t really matter, since most of those goals will be scored by someone, and hence you shouldn’t try and assemble a roster that will score goals

    There is some truth to this.The worst team in the league last year still scored 166 goals.Las Vegas will score some goals.There is a baseline below which a team cannot fall.On a player by player basis this means you shouldn’t measure Eberle’s 20 goals against zero, but against how many goals a replacement level player would score given the same opportunity.

    However, this doesn’t mean that the goals are “replaced” one way or another, because what matters isn’t the first 10 goals, that are replaced it is the next 10, 20, or 30 because it is these marginal goals that separate the average teams from the good teams, and the good teams from the great teams.

    It is a lot easier to go from 200 goals to 240 than it is to go from 240 goals to 280, those extra goals that Eberle has the potential to score are what are difficult to replace.Moreover, Eberle is more playmaker than shooter, even if you replace his goals, you haven’t replaced his assists, the goals that others score.Everyone is talking about what a great year Maroon had with his 27 goals, but even with those 27 goals he had fewer points than Eberle, and all this with career high shooting percentage.

    Eberle is a better hockey player than Patrick Maroon, and it isn’t even close, and yet somehow Maroon is an important part of the team and Eberle is a one-dimensional player whose goals are easily replaced.Following your reasoning is how the Oilers are talking themselves into making a bad decision.

    Your oppositional view points sometimes poke everyone in the eye. Perhaps not today, but just saying that any group can go down consensus thinking and a different point of view is necessary. Reminds me to broaden my perspective and see things from different angles. Love the logical presentations here, even the biased ones; and even Ricky’s that I generally cant figure out.

    Keep up the good work.

  49. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Ducey: I am with Batman on this one.

    With your logic, the Oilers could replace Eberle with Pak or Mitch Moroz and not lose any goals. They would just be reallocated.

    – Great Post LT: I love this “debate”

    – Trading Eberle and his “20 goals”, isn’t done with the view to being worse.

    – If Eberle gets moved, its because management thinks they can get a guy to replace Ebs minutes, while the team as a whole is more complete.

    – The more complete the team, the better team goal differential

    – The arguments for Ebs are based on this CF%, WOWY’s etc. But the team dynamics change if/when you replace Ebs

    – You don’t necessarily need to replace Ebs with a player who is as productive a goal scorer in order for the team to score more goals: that’s the fallacy of relying on individual-based player stats to arrive at definitive conclusions

    – For instance, last year, by inserting Larsson, each D was slotted at least one notch below where they would have been without him, and you had less D playing on opposite wings. The cascading effect of this was a better D, which was able to transition the puck to offense.

    – So whether trading Hall to achieve this was an overpay that is not quantifiable. If Ebs gets moved it would be for the same logic as trading Hall: not to make the team worse, or not to score less goals, rather to make the team better more complete, and able to score more goals.

  50. Cassandra says:

    Pink Socks: I don’t disagree with your underlying theory, but the fact remains that there is a salary cap to be considered, and since Eberle makes $6m next year, he is unfortunately most likely to be moved.If Eberle’s salary was the same as JP and Slepyshev, I totally agree, but the salaries are vastly different.What JP does is very much relevant to the discussion.If he maxes out and puts $3.5m in his bank while scoring 20-25, he replaced Eberle at half the cost. That has value.

    So if Eberle scores 25 next year, and Slepyshev scores 15, are those 10 more “marginal goals” as you call them worth $5m?Or is it better to have an additional $5m in a 2RD?

    Is the 2RD Kris Russell?

    This is a different question that what was initially proposed. The goals haven’t been replaced, but the money has been reallocated. So it depends upon where the money is reallocated. If you trade Eberle for Hamonic you haven’t replaced the goals but the team might be better.

    If you trade Eberle for Strome and sign Russell to a three or four year deal, your team is worse.

    If you trade Eberle for Vatanen …. I don’t know.

    The premise is that you can do better than Eberle on the free agent market. All of the scoring forwards signed last year have worse deals, some of them aren’t even worth 7th round picks. And if you spend the money you’ve saved on a defenseman, I would want to know who. I mean, obviously if the money goes to Doughty then dumping Eberle is a good thing, but if the money just sits there unspent or is fritted away on mediocrities then it isn’t.

  51. flea says:

    I think if the Oilers had a choice, they’d keep Eberle. They do like him, but if you hold him until next summer, his value becomes less and less as teams know the Oilers have to move him because of a cap crunch. So he has more value right now than he will 365 days from now. So PC is looking at the loss of offense this year versus the reduced return. If the return now offsets the offense loss in the upcoming season, they pull the trigger. Of course, we have no idea what that metric is, it might not just be goals. It might be a combination of salary cap room, youth, contract control and potential that makes them deal Ebs. Or addressing another area of weakness like adding to the defense.

    I personally feel them should still just keep him, and get rid of him next summer for a lesser return.

  52. Rebilled says:

    If Crosby wins the Hart then 97 should retroactively win the Calder.

  53. rickithebear says:

    Ducey:

    CF and CA is largely generated by Forwards and offensicve D.
    A forward or Dman that Plays low and has high Giveaway, Block, Miss rates who cheats for offence or Plays down low in OZ.
    1. they are not in place to pressure top High danger area in D zone.
    2. they are not in place to pressure (trap) NZ for entry prevention. Allowing higher OZ penetration.
    and often subjecting D to a high CA count. All good Def D can do is try to Keep the Corsi x,y to low danger (see Larsson, Benning) and be elite Shot suppression (blocks, Misses) D

    But we must remember at the moment of release, Low danger corsi go in 5 times less than High danger Corsi. so when we look at a Corsi % in reality its influence could be minimal.

    we know the standard High danger Shot density is
    holding an avg LD shot to a value of 1.
    19.5 LD60 X 1 = 19.5
    we know HD shot goes in 5 times more than LD.
    Making HD sjhot a value of 5.
    10.5 HD60 X 5 = 52.5
    Which equals a shot density of 72/60

    So depending the quality of Shot reduction D faced we can get a Relative SD for any given player.
    those Forwards can also have a given CA rate.

  54. Ryan says:

    Cassandra,

    Great thread today. Good work everyone.

    Open questions to all.

    1. What is reasonable production goals/assists/points for a fairly one-dimensional $6m winger at the current salary cap?

    2. Can a team afford to pay a winger $6m in today’s cap if he doesn’t fit on the top line or 1PP?

  55. Bank Shot says:

    Cassandra:
    The premise is that you can do better than Eberle on the free agent market.All of the scoring forwards signed last year have worse deals, some of them aren’t even worth 7th round picks.And if you spend the money you’ve saved on a defenseman, I would want to know who.I mean, obviously if the money goes to Doughty then dumping Eberle is a good thing, but if the money just sits there unspent or is fritted away on mediocrities then it isn’t.

    If you can sign someone like Justin Williams or Vrbata for ~$3 million on a two year term, which is pretty realistic, I think you have adequately replaced Eberle.

    Those two guys probably won’t out perform Eberle, but will come close enough that the $3 million dollars saved could help the Oilers land a D or third line C which would improve their team overall.

    The hitch is that things might not fall into place on the safest timeline. If a good deal comes before free agency begins, you have to trade Eberle not knowing if you can replace him. So an Eberle trade will be risky most likely.

  56. Gerta Rauss says:

    boneshj:
    I don’t think edmonton can buy out Fayne or Pouliot and have enough players meeting the requirements for the expansion draft without exposing someone else.Maybe they could get creative with a Pouliot and just expose Letestu, but they have no option on defense to replace Fayne unless they expose Larson or Klefbom or sign someone that gets exposed (who in their right mind would accept that contract).

    -Gryba meets the games played requirement. If anybody is inquiring about Fayne (ie: trade with salary retained for themselves to meet the expansion requirements) Chia can offer a modest contract to Gryba that would allow the Oilers to meet the expansion draft rules, and move Fayne along

    -unless the league has changed the dates/rules this year, the first buyout window is June 15 thru June 30-a Fayne buyout would/could happen after the expansion draft

    -I’m not endorsing a Fayne buyout, I think he should be playing on the NHL team, but based on the organizations actions last season, Fayne is gone imo…one way or another

  57. Jordan says:

    Ryan:
    Cassandra,

    Great thread today. Good work everyone.

    Open questions to all.

    1. What is reasonable production goals/assists/points for a fairly one-dimensional $6m winger at the current salary cap?

    2. Can a team afford to pay a winger $6m in today’s cap if he doesn’t fit on the top line or 1PP?

    1 – Dunno

    2 –
    2016-17 Corey Perry – 10 million – played most of the year on the 2nd or 3rd line (cap hit 8.6M x 8 – team went to final 4
    2016-17 Phil Kessel – 9 million – played most of the year on the 2nd or 3rd line (cap hit 8M x 8 – team went to SCF

    Looks like the answer is yes, depending on the rest of their salary structure.

  58. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: Is the 2RD Kris Russell?

    Hopefully the 2RD is not Russell.

    Cassandra:

    This is a different question that what was initially proposed.The goals haven’t been replaced, but the money has been reallocated.So it depends upon where the money is reallocated.If you trade Eberle for Hamonic you haven’t replaced the goals but the team might be better.

    Team could be better in this instance, but the goals could have been replaced via JP or Sleppy.

    Cassandra:
    If you trade Eberle for Strome and sign Russell to a three or four year deal, your team is worse.

    I agree, Russell should be upgraded.

    Cassandra:
    If you trade Eberle for Vatanen ….I don’t know.

    Me neither, I’m not overly high on Vatanen considering the defensive chaos and salary.

    Cassandra:
    The premise is that you can do better than Eberle on the free agent market.All of the scoring forwards signed last year have worse deals, some of them aren’t even worth 7th round picks.And if you spend the money you’ve saved on a defenseman, I would want to know who.I mean, obviously if the money goes to Doughty then dumping Eberle is a good thing, but if the money just sits there unspent or is fritted away on mediocrities then it isn’t.

    Well, we all know that Lucic isn’t worth a 7th round pick.

    As for the $6m, one of the places it is going is McDavid and Draisaitl to keep them long term. Those are 2 players to build a team around long term. I go back to my last post, the most important is managing the salary cap effectively while maximizing the dollars spent. Unfortunately Eberle is a cap casualty for this franchise at this point. The other money we all hope goes to a good cause, whether it is a less expensive FA, or a 2RD.

  59. PokeCheck says:

    I don’t know guys (and gal), if we move Eberle, how do we replace his 0 playoff goals? Everyone else we tried on that side of that ice had at least 3 [except for Pak].

  60. Bank Shot says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    -I’m not endorsing a Fayne buyout, I think he should be playing on the NHL team, but based on the organizations actions last season, Fayne is gone imo…one way or another

    I don’t think the Oilers can afford to buy out Fayne. He just has one year left.

    I think you offer him around the league at 50% retained and maybe a sweetner such as a 4th ronder and hope someone takes him.

  61. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: Actually, the suggestion was that anyone could replace them, ad infinitum.What else do you think the next guy on the factory floor means?

    It doesn’t mean replacing a 20 goal man with a role player who won’t crack the Oilers’ roster next year, and I refer you to this:

    jtblack:

    I certainly don’t think Matt Hendricks or Parkinen or any replacement level player could replace Ebs goals, even with the ice time / opportunity

    We are looking for Guentzel/Sheary, not Tom Sestito here.

    Cassandra:

    But even if we take your revision as the proposition, it doesn’t hold because a) you have replaced 20 minutes of ice time with 30-35 minutes, b) there is no way either player projects to score the same as Eberle unless by project you mean wishcast, and c) even if JP scores 25 goals you still haven’t replaced Eberle’s goals because you could have had both.25 + 20 is more than 25 + 10.

    It is wishcast. It is hoping JP & Slepyshev turn into Guentzel and Sheary, while saving a ton on the cap. If JP and Eberle each score 20, thats 40, if JP and Slepy combine for 30 it’s minus 10. But maybe Eberle in means JP and Slepy have fewer opportunities and they each score 10. Maybe one sucks next year and the other scores 40. There is no way to accurately project it, only effectively managing the salary cap and shoring up a couple of spots on D.

    Cassandra:
    The only thing in truly finite supply is first unit power play time, and Eberle scored his 50 points without that.Replacing the marginal production of his 50 points is not something that will happen automatically. By contrast, Lucic scored at less than replacement player level considering his opportunities.If you gave Slepyshev his icetime the Oilers would immediately score more goals.

    I totally agree with the 1PP argument, though there is also the 5×5 production from Eberle that doesn’t have good arrows.

    14-15 – 1.98
    15-16 – 1.85
    16-17 – 1.76

  62. gogliano says:

    Ryan:
    Cassandra,

    Great thread today. Good work everyone.

    Open questions to all.

    1. What is reasonable production goals/assists/points for a fairly one-dimensional $6m winger at the current salary cap?

    2. Can a team afford to pay a winger $6m in today’s cap if he doesn’t fit on the top line or 1PP?

    1. I’d set the reasonable # at about 50 points, minimum. Jordan Eberle played the full 82 games and was right around that mark — 21st in RW points and 24th in RW PPG:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=skatersummary&pos=R&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists

    No fancy stats, just pure production. Eberle brings lower end 1st line production. The problem is (1) he doesn’t bring 1st line difference making and (2) he’s a winger on a team with centers who deserve to get paid.

    2. No. It’s RNH v Eberle fighting for cap dollars and I take the center every time. Particularly given the 3 year age advantage in favor of RNH. And until events prove contrary, we have an elite 1 RW who meshes with our 1C: Leon Draisatl.

  63. pocession charge says:

    Discussion from last summer:

    The Oilers are not a great offensive team and just traded their top goal scorer. Who is going to replace Hall’s scoring? How does this make the team better?

    Fast forward to today:

    The Oilers are a good offensive team and are considering trading their top scoring winger. Who is going to replace Eberle’s scoring?

    Team scoring compensates for individuals (non super-elite category).

  64. highgloveside says:

    I would trade Eberle if it meant we could draft the exact list above. That list would be sweet sailing for the Oilers

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