YOU CAN’T ALWAYS GET WHAT YOU WANT

I believe we can see enough of summer to draw some conclusions. Each offseason takes time to make itself known, but we usually get some kind of indication a couple of weeks out. Last year, we didn’t get the full photo in color until June 23:

I have written several times this spring about the possibility of the Oilers trading Taylor Hall. The reaction from some of you has been swift and negative, and I understand that feeling—trading him makes little sense to me. I began the spring thinking that Hall for Subban would satisfy the asset value, but begin summer thinking only Hampus Lindholm (and his lower cap hit) represents fair value.

The Milan Lucic news from yesterday (in my opinion) puts Edmonton on a collision course with a mammoth contract for the former Bruins winger. There are ways around dealing Hall—Benoit Pouliot could be dealt—but let’s get real the likely move is Hall for a RHD.

Since the moment we found out Connor McDavid would be an Oiler, the mind struggled to find superlatives for this stunning forward group. The two men have had one season—less, really—and it looks as though No. 4 will be cashed for blue.

There is more than one way to win—Whitey Herzog and Earl Weaver taught me that 35 years ago—but the Gary Carter trade taught me trading Taylor Hall is not a winning notion.

We wait. Source

WHAT ABOUT THIS YEAR?

The theme of this summer (in my opinion) will be the second pairing. Part of it comes from the Andrej Sekera injury (ugh) and part of it comes from the polarizing issue that is Kris Russell. When the SCF ends, and that could be tonight, we may see a transaction surrounding Jordan Eberle being dealt for a defenseman. I’ll name Travis Hamonic, Alex Petrovic, Matt Dumba and Tyson Barrie based on Frank Seravalli’s latest trade bait list.

I think the Eberle shopping may not be enough, and suspect that’s what happened a year ago. Peter Chiarelli may have to adjust his sights, perhaps making Ryan Nugent-Hopkins available or making a decision to acquire a less prominent option on defense.

It doesn’t sound sexy, but Jordan Eberle has value to this Edmonton Oilers team and trading him for something less than a quality option makes no sense. We may see Peter Chiarelli sign Kris Russell, move Matt Benning up to the second pairing, followed by a free-agent addition in the Cody Franson end of the free-agent pool.

CURRENT TRADE ASSETS OUT

  1. Jordan Eberle
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  3. Jesse Puljujarvi
  4. No. 22 overall
  5. Caleb Jones
  6. 2018 first-round selection
  7. Anton Slepyshev
  8. Jujhar Khaira
  9. Ethan Bear
  10. Griffin Reinhart

What we have to ask ourselves is this: How many of these names could serve as substantial payment for a player like Travis Hamonic or Alex Petrovic? A year ago, Peter Chiarelli identified Milan Lucic as a suitable replacement for Taylor Hall before making a trade. One wrinkle we can look at now to possibly inform the future is that target list.

TARGETS, FORWARDS (MODIFIED)

  1. LC Martin Hanzal FREE AGENT (71gp, 20-19-39). Has to be high priority.
  2. RC Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning. RFA 2017. 56 points per 82 games.
  3. C-R Ryan Strome, NY Islanders (69gp, 13-17-30). Rumors.
  4. R Sam Gagner FREE AGENT (81gp, 18-32-50). PP savant.
  5. R Justin Williams FREE AGENT (80gp, 24-24-48). Luxury.
  6. LC Nick Bonino FREE AGENT (80gp, 18-19-37). Two-way C.
  7. R Radim Vrbata FREE AGENT (81gp, 20-35-55). Scorer.
  8. R-L Thomas Vanek FREE AGENT (68gp, 17-31-48). Offensive option.
  9. R T.J. Oshie FREE AGENT (68gp, 33-23-56).  Not affordable.
  10. R Brett Connolly FREE AGENT (66gp, 15-8-23). Inexpensive scoring on RW.
  11. R Patrick Eaves FREE AGENT (79gp, 32-19-51). Volume shooter!
  12. RC Derek Ryan FREE AGENT (67gp, 11-18-29). Fine utility player.
  13. L Evander Kane, Buffalo Sabres (70gp, 28-15-43). Buy low power forward.
  14. RC Mika Zibanejad, New York Rangers. Averages 46 points per 82gp.
  15. LC Matt Duchene, Colorado Avalanche. Please please please Baby Jesus.
  16. LC Vladimir Sobotka, St. Louis Blues. Signed to a nifty $3.5 million times two.
  17. L Ilya Kovalchuk, New Jersey. Splendid KHL season, he’s coming back.
  18. R Brett Ritchie, Dallas Stars (78gp, 16-8-24). Shoots the puck a lot.
  19. RC Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche. UFA 2023. Would cost the moon.
  20. R Jaromir Jagr FREE AGENT (82gp, 16-30-46). Now 70, still going.
  21. R Kris Versteeg FREE AGENT (69gp, 15-22-37). What he brings has value.
  22. R Ales Hemsky FREE AGENT (15gp, 4-3-7). Still brilliantly creative.
  23. LC Dominic Moore FREE AGENT (82gp, 11-14-25). PK and FO option.
  24. R Drew Stafford FREE AGENT (58gp, 8-13-21). Chiarelli type.
  25. LC Brian Boyle FREE AGENT (75gp, 13-12-25). He is on their list.
  26. R Jarome Iginla FREE AGENT (80gp, 14-13-27). He can still shoot the puck.
  27. L Patrick Sharp FREE AGENT. Depending on health and price.
  28. R Tyler Pitlick FREE AGENT (31gp, 8-3-11). Finally emerged, could return.
  29. R Jordan Weal FREE AGENT (23gp, 8-4-12). Eastern Pitlick.

I know it’s a long list and you’ve seen most of it before, but there could be clues here. If we get to the end of this month and it appears RNH is the ask for a RHD who can really help, then names like Martin Hanzal and Nick Bonino become more prominent. If Eberle is the man out, that might mean we see Edmonton pursue Thomas Vanek, Radim Vrbata or Sam Gagner. I have modified this list (and the one below) to reflect changing tides.

TARGETS, DEFENSE (MODIFIED)

  1. LD Kris Russell FREE AGENT. GM and coach like him, good chance he’ll return.
  2. RD Travis Hamonic, NY Islanders. A rumored target.
  3. RD Alex Petrovic, Florida Panthers. Rugged D, good possession numbers.
  4. RD Mark Pysyk, Florida Panthers. Panthers young and emerging blue.
  5. RD Justin Faulk, Carolina Hurricanes. It would take the Nuge.
  6. RD Kevin Shattenkirk FREE AGENT (80gp, 13-43-56). One year at big coin?
  7. RD Sami  Vatanen, Anaheim Ducks. Talented, inconsistent.
  8. RD Cody Franson FREE AGENT. His fancy stats: Out of the blue and into the black.
  9. RD Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild. Power play option, chaos in his game.
  10. RD Josh Manson, Anaheim Ducks. A dream solution to 2RHD
  11. RD Radko Gudas, Philadelphia Flyers. Duck killer, if acquired.
  12. RD Jason Demers, Florida Panthers. Veteran D visited Edmonton as UFA last summer.
  13. RD David Savard, Columbus. Rarely mentioned but an interesting option.
  14. LD Ryan Murray, Columbus Blue Jackets. Doesn’t seem a fit.
  15. RD Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. He had a poor year, but has talent.
  16. LD Brian Campbell FREE AGENT (80gp, 5-12-17). The man can still wheel.
  17. LD Zdeno Chara, Boston Bruins. Played over 23 minutes a game this past season.
  18. RD Michael Stone FREE AGENT (64gp, 3-12-15). Last chance Texaco.

I’ve modified the list and will continue to do so as we begin to find out more about the decisions facing the team. The list is morphing from ‘wish list’ with top options at No. 1, to ‘target list’ and players most likely to be reasonable options are ranked higher.

CHIARELLI SUMMER LIST

  1. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future. (Griffin Reinhart?)
  2. Find a way to trade Benoit Pouliot off the roster. (They may keep him)
  3. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen. (Travis Hamonic) 
  4. Find a stopgap measure to replace Andrej Sekera’s minutes until he returns. (Kris Russell)
  5. Find a C-R who can help the offense and cover off where Leon isn’t at the time and to replace Jordan Eberle if he’s dealt. (Radim Vrbata? Brett Connolly?)
  6. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline. (Eberle out would help depending on actual deal)

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73 Responses to "YOU CAN’T ALWAYS GET WHAT YOU WANT"

  1. dustrock says:

    Knowing the trades Chia has made and the lack of rumors surrounding them (Reinhart, Maroon, Hall, Davidson) I am pretty curious to see who gets moved where.

  2. russ99 says:

    An important thing to look at with the Oilers potential moves is how they impact the cap next summer, since none of these players except maybe Russell will sign tor one year and McDavid/Draisaitl will put us to the cap.

    Sekera has a full NMC and will be back, so you have to count that in as well.

    IMO, RNH’s 4 year contract at $6 may be the bigger rock that has to get moved to get certainty at RD and/or RW. Eberle has one year plus change left at the next deadline and will be eminently movable then than now, especially if the Oilers can eat some of next year’s salary. If we trade Eberle this summer, the team acquiring him could get back more then than we do now.

    This is the summer of trade opportunity, since next summer, everyone will know how much we need to move to get under the cap, so moves made now will impact the team 2-3 years down the road, they’re not just for this summer.

    No pressure, Chia…

    I also think they’d love to buyout Pouliot, if they can’t find a taker, but that could limit moves for next summer.

  3. @yeg97 says:

    No game until Monday my man!!!

  4. Lowetide says:

    @yeg97:
    No game until Monday my man!!!

    SCF Game 6 is this evening.

  5. Lowetide says:

    russ99:
    An important thing to look at with the Oilers potential moves is how they impact the cap next summer, since none of these players except maybe Russell will sign tor one year and McDavid/Draisaitl will put us to the cap.

    Sekera has a full NMC and will be back, so you have to count that in as well.

    IMO, RNH’s 4 year contract at $6 may be the bigger rock that has to get moved to get certainty at RD and/or RW. Eberle has one year plus change left at the next deadline and will be eminently movable then than now, especially if the Oilers can eat some of next year’s salary. If we trade Eberle this summer, the team acquiring him could get back more then than we do now.

    This is the summer of trade opportunity, since next summer, everyone will know how much we need to move to get under the cap, so moves made now will impact the team 2-3 years down the road, they’re not just for this summer.

    No pressure, Chia…

    I also think they’d love to buyout Pouliot, if they can’t find a taker, but that could limit moves for next summer.

    Edmonton could also grab a more natural 3C at lesser dollars (say $3M) and the structure of the roster moneywise falls into place. I’m hope RNH stays, though.

  6. @yeg97 says:

    Lowetide,

    Ugh. Hoped to delete that before it was seen…

  7. Lowetide says:

    @yeg97:
    Lowetide,

    Ugh. Hoped to delete that before it was seen…

    Haha. No worries. NBA game Monday, we might be without major league sports by Tuesday morning!

  8. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: we might be without major league sports by Tuesday morning!

    Because you know, baseball is irrelevant now that the Expo’s don’t exist anymore…right?

    *winces*

    Damn, I’m sorry for going there. I understand if I get a timeout for my transgressions. 🙂

  9. Diablo says:

    Lowetide: Haha. No worries. NBA game Monday, we might be without major league sports by Tuesday morning!

    ?MLB

    Also huge props to Rafa Nadal today – amazing accomplishment!

  10. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: Because you know, baseball is irrelevant now that the Expo’s don’t exist anymore…right?

    *winces*

    Damn, I’m sorry for going there. I understand if I get a timeout for my transgressions. 🙂

    Lol. No worries. There was a time when baseball occupied much of my summer, but they lost me and each year it becomes less a part of my sports enjoyment. Saw a game yesterday where one time brought out a lineup I barely knew anything about. Old me would have poured over pages and pages to become familiar.

  11. slopitch says:

    I think teams that are in on Duchene will consider Ebs option 2. I suspect Duchene will set off the trading frenzy.

  12. Greg says:

    Here are 2 players off the TSN traded bait board:

    Player 1
    Pos. C Age: 26 2017-18 Cap Hit: $6M
    GP: 77 G: 18 PTS: 41 Past 2016-17: 2 years Clause: None

    Player 2
    Pos. RW Age: 27 2017-18 Cap Hit: $6M
    GP: 82 G: 20 PTS: 51 Past 2016-17: 2 years Clause: None

    Hint, one of them is already on our team and some people want to leave him exposed for the expansion draft. The other is talked about like he’s a top tier offensive player that would cost a ton of assets to acquire. Can anyone explain this to me?

  13. Diablo says:

    If Eberle is going to move, it should be for a centre – that way, if you have to move Nuge down the line for salary cap compliance purposes, you are dealing from a position of strength/excess.

    Centers can be converted to wingers. LHers can play on the RW and vice versa … its not that big of a deal.

    If you trade Ebs for a centre to play 3C, then Draisaitl can slot into RW, and behind him you have Kassian + Slepy, Pitlick, and Puljujarvi …. rather than signing an expensive vet who could fall off a cliff during the duration of their contract (like Pouliot has), give those three guys an opportunity to grow.

    Worst case scenario … if by the trade deadline you need a boost on the wing, its much cheaper and easier to acquire a winger than another centre.

    My preference is to move Ebs to LV in exchange for Jarnkrok (+ an agreement that they select Pouliot) – good PKer with the skill to move up into an offensive role if needed. He’s 25 years old, RH and locked in for another 5 years at 2 million per season. Only minus is he’s not huge. Perfect 3C with a contract that has awesome value. May even allow Chia to go after some of the RHD that are heading to UFA in the next two summers.

  14. Diablo says:

    Greg:
    Here are 2 players off the TSN traded bait board:

    Player 1
    Pos. CAge: 262017-18 Cap Hit: $6M
    GP: 77G: 18PTS: 41Past 2016-17: 2 years Clause: None

    Player 2
    Pos. RWAge: 272017-18 Cap Hit: $6M
    GP: 82G: 20PTS: 51Past 2016-17: 2 years Clause: None

    Hint, one of them is already on our team and some people want to leave him exposed for the expansion draft. The other is talked about like he’s a top tier offensive player that would cost a ton of assets to acquire. Can anyone explain this to me?

    Player 1 = Duchene
    Player 2 = Eberle.

    What prize do I win? 😀

  15. stush18 says:

    Diablo:
    If Eberle is going to move, it should be for a centre – that way, if you have to move Nuge down the line for salary cap compliance purposes, you are dealing from a position of strength/excess.

    Centers can be converted to wingers. LHers can play on the RW and vice versa … its not that big of a deal.

    If you trade Ebs for a centre to play 3C, then Draisaitl can slot into RW, and behind him you have Kassian + Slepy, Pitlick, and Puljujarvi …. rather than signing an expensive vet who could fall off a cliff during the duration of their contract (like Pouliot has), give those three guys an opportunity to grow.

    Worst case scenario … if by the trade deadline you need a boost on the wing, its much cheaper and easier to acquire a winger than another centre.

    My preference is to move Ebs to LV in exchange for Jarnkrok (+ an agreement that they select Pouliot) – good PKer with the skill to move up into an offensive role if needed. He’s 25 years old, RH and locked in for another 5 years at 2 million per season. Only minus is he’s not huge. Perfect 3C with a contract has awesome value. May even allow Chia to go after some of the RHD that are heading to UFA in the next two summers.

    I think the trade we would be looking at is

    Eberle + prospect for RHD + 3c.

    That’s prolly the template. Fill it out how you like

  16. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    I have heard rumblings one of Niederriter or Granlund will be available out of Minnesota. Friedman has mentioned it here and there in 30 thoughts as well as radio hits.

    I have a lot of time for those two players, and Nino looked excellent on Draisaitls wing during World Cup. Nino is a legit power forward, definitely a Chiarelli type. Just putting the pieces together and really coming into his own offensively, he may have such a great year next season that he will never be on the market again. The time is now to strike, IMO.

    If you’re a GM and you’re not constantly on the phone with Chuck Fletcher you’re not doing your job. They are in quite the pickle and some insane talent could be had in the right deal.

    What are your takes on the Minny situation?

  17. Lowetide says:

    Greg:
    Here are 2 players off the TSN traded bait board:

    Player 1
    Pos. CAge: 262017-18 Cap Hit: $6M
    GP: 77G: 18PTS: 41Past 2016-17: 2 years Clause: None

    Player 2
    Pos. RWAge: 272017-18 Cap Hit: $6M
    GP: 82G: 20PTS: 51Past 2016-17: 2 years Clause: None

    Hint, one of them is already on our team and some people want to leave him exposed for the expansion draft. The other is talked about like he’s a top tier offensive player that would cost a ton of assets to acquire. Can anyone explain this to me?

    I don’t know many who want to leave Eberle off the protected list, and the reasons he may be dealt include cap hit. This isn’t a ‘we hate Eberle’ situation imo.

  18. Greg says:

    Diablo,

    You win eternal happiness! Congratulations! It should kick in any minute now if it hasn’t already.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lowetide,

    I have heard rumblings one of Niederriter or Granlund will be available out of Minnesota. Friedman has mentioned it here and there in 30 thoughts as well as radio hits.

    I have a lot of time for those two players, and Nino looked excellent on Draisaitls wing during World Cup. Nino is a legit power forward, definitely a Chiarelli type. Just putting the pieces together and really coming into his own offensively, he may have such a great year next season that he will never be on the market again. The time is now to strike, IMO.

    If you’re a GM and you’re not constantly on the phone with Chuck Fletcher you’re not doing your job. They are in quite the pickle and some insane talent could be had in the right deal.

    What are your takes on the Minny situation?

    Fletcher is a smart GM, so I don’t think he’s going to stand pat before the expansion draft. If I were him, I would protect four blue (I like Dumba) and try to get oneof the NMC men to lift (Parise, Koivu, Pominville).

    I’d also try to broker a deal with LV and give up some futures (prospects and picks). PC would of course be wise to talk to Fletcher, there are a bunch of interesting names on that roster.

  20. sumaclab says:

    I am man who believes you can come home. If your moving Eberle thats one thing. If your not then I add Hemsky as my second line RW. Especially if Leon is at center. Slepy is my 3rd line RW and Kassian my 4th. The monkey wrench is Spencer FOO. WHAT?
    I also sign Sam Gagner. If and only if he plays wing. On my 2cd unit powerplay with Nuge and Eberle.
    I resign Gryba.
    My druther would be to have Caggiula with Gagner and Nuge on my 3rd line. With Letestu Kassian.and JJK or Pitlick.
    I run Maroon MCdavid and Eberle. Lucic with LD and Hemsky.

  21. D says:

    LT, It’s pretty amazing how much the Larsson trade wasn’t on the radar. Looking at your article from last year, Larsson wasn’t even on the list of potential acquisition D!

  22. sumaclab says:

    Hanzal will cost. Bigtime. Term and money. A whole lotta nope.

  23. Lowetide says:

    D:
    LT,It’s pretty amazing how much the Larsson trade wasn’t on the radar.Looking at your article from last year, Larsson wasn’t even on the list of potential acquisition D!

    Absolutely true. Bob mentioned him about two days before the trade and honestly it was the first I’d heard the name.

  24. sumaclab says:

    Tomas Vanek. If you get him at 3m for 1 season. Or less. Sign him. The man is finacially screwed. He has issues in that regard. If his head is on straight he could get 30 with LD.
    Would Hemsky come back to Edmonton? I would sign him in a minute if his physical is clear. He goes to the paint. On the piwerplay he is creative.
    More and more goals are scored on the powerplay rather than 5×5. If the Oilers look to be at the top of the league 3 things are needed. Size. Speed. And a lethal powerplay.

  25. stush18 says:

    sumaclab:
    Tomas Vanek. If you get him at 3m for 1 season. Or less. Sign him. The man is finacially screwed. He has issues in that regard. If his head is on straight he could get 30 with LD.
    Would Hemsky come back to Edmonton? I would sign him in a minute if his physical is clear. He goes to the paint. On the piwerplay he is creative.
    More and more goals are scored on the powerplay rather than 5×5. If the Oilers look to be at the top of the league 3 things are needed. Size. Speed. And a lethal powerplay.

    The issue though isn’t the oilers power play. It was good lol regular season.

    The problem is they don’t generate enough calls in the playoffs. They need to be big to play through the bullshit. So 5v5 is the most important success factor in playoffs. PP success just gets you there

  26. stush18 says:

    Also, the lack of verbal around nuge has me worried we’re shipping him out this summer.

  27. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: Absolutely true. Bob mentioned him about two days before the trade and honestly it was the first I’d heard the name.

    You have to think Peter was in deep on something else that fell apart, perhaps around the draft, and things came together fairly quickly with the Larsson deal afterwards as sort of a “plan B”.

    IIRC a 3 way swap of picks was talked about by a few insiders around the time of the draft, and Edmonton would have picked up a top 4 d in that swap of picks plus moved down and grabbed Sergachev. Other moving parts were included obviously but those details get fuzzy.

    Later, Peter also mentioned he had been talking to Shero since both of them took over their new teams, just kind of touching base here and there. Perhaps Larsson was discussed long before the actual deal but kind of left on the back burner while Subban or Shattenkirk etc were front and center.

    On a separate note: I hope they do a “behind the scenes” kind of series like they did in Boston during the Seguin trade but from an Oilers perspective around the time of June 2016. I would love to see the discussions that took place around the time of the Hall trade. I hope they had cameras around inside the offices. Bob has mentioned that Cameras do follow the team previously and that some stuff will come out at a later date. Even if its just a 2015 to 2017 version of Oil change I would watch the hell out of it.

  28. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    Also, the lack of verbal around nuge has me worried we’re shipping him out this summer.

    Excellent point.

  29. Centre of attention says:

    stush18:
    Also, the lack of verbal around nuge has me worried we’re shipping him out this summer.

    Bingo.

    Expect the unexpected, or so they say.

  30. JDI says:

    But if you try sometime…

  31. Diablo says:

    Greg:
    Diablo,

    You win eternal happiness! Congratulations! It should kick in any minute now if it hasn’t already.

    I achieved eternal happiness the day Connor McDavid became an Oiler. Woot! Woot!

  32. Diablo says:

    sumaclab:
    Tomas Vanek.

    Too lazy to look this up right now, but I think it was Willis who had a post on ON around the time of the trade deadline, where he demonstrated quite convincingly that Vanek was one of the most sheltered forwards in the entire NHL while playing for Detroit.

    No passengers please. I want forwards that can be trusted in their own zone, especially since we have a coach who’s big on rolling 4 lines consistently – you can’t hide a player like Vanek given the system we employ.

    Hemsky might be worth a look though – he was always a good 2-way player. You’d want to have your team doctors and also some of the orthopaedic surgeons from UofA have a good look at that hip on MRI before you signed him though.

  33. jtblack says:

    sumaclab,

    May as well pull Smytty out of retirement!

  34. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    Teams will only lose 1 roster player. I think there may not be as much action as we suspect. If Minny loses Dumba, so be it … they would still be a good team with a similiar make up. I read that the Minny GM said he would rather just lose a player than lose a trade …

    Hope some deals start happening …

  35. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    By the way LT, did you hear Kyle Woodleif’s (red line report) hit on Edmonton radio on Friday? He said Kristian Vesalainen is #6 on his list and might be better than the top 2 kids.

    I worry about his offense looking at the numbers but people talk about him like he’s some kind of dynamo.

    What gives?

  36. Gret99zky says:

    Does bringing back Hemsky and/or Gagner put them under unwanted/unfair pressure? Can the fans forget the reasons why they were dealt before?

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I don’t know many who want to leave Eberle off the protected list, and the reasons he may be dealt include cap hit. This isn’t a ‘we hate Eberle’ situation imo.

    It is a “we hate Eberle” situation for many – not so much on this site but on many others.

    “Addition by subtraction”, “negative value”, “loser that is scared on the ice”, etc.

    Its somewhat funny.

    He’s one of the highest scoring wingers in the league since he came in to the NHL.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    sumaclab:
    Hanzal will cost. Bigtime. Term and money. A whole lotta nope.

    Like the player, don’t like the (likely) cost.

    I think Derek Ryan is more likely (at a quarter or a third of the cost).

  39. Centre of attention says:

    Ughhhhh if the cap is flat this summer is going to suck so bad.

  40. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    There are definitely some that want to see Ebs go, but I haven’t seen any ppl suggesting we should lose him for nothing?

  41. Lowetide says:

    Wrote about the flat cap here, it is as CofA says

    https://oilersnation.com/2017/06/11/flat-cap-the-hell-you-say/

  42. jtblack says:

    LT: of all those RHD do options, who would you like to see. Are you hoping PC aims high or not?

  43. jtblack says:

    jtblack,

    I love Faulk. Age cap hit etc … Would be perfect fit for Cup contender but would most likely cost Nuge +

  44. Diablo says:

    Centre of attention:
    Ughhhhh if the cap is flat this summer is going to suck so bad.

    I actually prefer the cap to remain flat this summer.

    The Oilers cap situation for next season is fine – we’re not affected by a flat cap much.
    On the other hand, a flat cap would do two things in our favour …
    1) put a lot of pressure on teams who are at the cap to shed salary for a less than optimal return, particularly Anaheim and Chicago.
    2) Depress the market for free agents – fewer teams will be able to play in that market, which could mean getting some value deals, instead of having to overpay.

    Glass half full.

  45. JDI says:

    @CoA

    Ughhhhh if the cap is flat this summer is going to suck so bad.

    This might help get you through.

    https://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/32091/211452/

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    OriginalPouzar,

    There are definitely some that want to see Ebs go, but I haven’t seen any ppl suggesting we should lose him for nothing?

    I have, many times including today. I post on a good community (used to be the SN forums before those boards went dead and most regulars moved to a new forum started by some community members). Its generally a very good community with lots of knowledge and the Oilers forum is pretty active. There are some overly-emotional posters that seem to lose contact with reality and there are suggestions of “addition by subtraction” and “no trade value”, etc.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lowetide,

    By the way LT, did you hear Kyle Woodleif’s (red line report) hit on Edmonton radio on Friday?He said Kristian Vesalainen is #6 on his list and might be better than the top 2 kids.

    I worry about his offense looking at the numbers but people talk about him like he’s some kind of dynamo.

    What gives?

    Gap between scouts and numbers often exists. I always try to refrain from overreacting to those late tournaments, although Heiskanen clearly spiked (as did Vesalainen on most lists). The offense will be the worry.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide, if PIT wins the cup tonight, does the buyout window start on the 13th (48 hours after) or does it still open on the 15th?

  49. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    LT: of all those RHD do options, who would you like to see. Are you hoping PC aims high or not?

    I like Patrovic. He’s inexpensive, shouldn’t cost the moon and can grow with the group.

  50. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: Absolutely true. Bob mentioned him about two days before the trade and honestly it was the first I’d heard the name.

    Yes, I remember that moment almost like it was yesterday. It was at lunch time a few days before the trade. I was driving in my car listening to Oilers Now.

    Okay, maybe I’ve already forgotten a few details…but Bob Stauffer was talking with iirc Craig Simpson. He sort of sounded like he was just spitballing ideas and he said that maybe Chiarelli would trade Taylor Hall for a player like Travis Hamonic or Adam Larsson. Then he paused.

    When I heard Adam Larsson as a potential return, my first reaction was shock then horror at the idea of that being all you could get for trading Hall.

    I had a knot in my stomach after that and as I was heading out to eat, I had lost my appetite.

    When Stauffer mentioned Hall for Larsson what was most significant is that there had been all sorts of rumors swirling around in the weeks prior, but that was the very first time I had heard those two names connected.

    Something clicked and carried that ominous feeling until the trade actually happened.

  51. gadot10 says:

    A flat cap this summer is a good thing for the Oilers. A flat cap next summer would have been a disaster for the OIlers.

    A flat cap this year almost guarantees a cap escalation next year (when the Oilers will need it).

    A flat cap is unambiguously good news.

  52. Diablo says:

    Lowetide: I like Patrovic. He’s inexpensive, shouldn’t cost the moon and can grow with the group.

    Why Petrovic and not Pysyk … I haven’t seen either player at all … so I’d love to hear your scouting report on these two. Also what about Pulock? Thanks

  53. Barcs says:

    Lowetide: Fletcher is a smart GM

    Agree for the most part, but boy that Hanzal trade…
    Yikes.

  54. Diablo says:

    gadot10:
    A flat cap this summeris a good thing for the Oilers.A flat cap next summer would have been a disaster for the OIlers.

    A flat cap this year almost guarantees a cap escalation next year (when the Oilers will need it).

    A flat cap is unambiguously good news.

    A very good point as well.

  55. Centre of attention says:

    Diablo,

    gadot10,

    Read lowetides piece and tell me you have the same feelings.

    a flat cap is never good. not for a cap team like the Oilers.

    Ideally, it escalates both years.

  56. Nuclear leak says:

    Hemmer finished the season with more goals then assists!

    Other then the MSM who wouldn’t love to see Hemsky back?

    All those feeds Hemmer use to set up and everyone whiffed on.. Mcdavid and Drai would become the shooter first with him.. would be real nice to see

  57. Glass says:

    I hope you don’t mind Lowetide, delete if you want. Thought it’d be a fun little game…

    NHL Off-Season Choose Your Own Adventure!
    Rules: Make sure 2 or more selections don’t conflict; you can’t trade to same player twice.

    2RD
    A) Trade Eberle for Hamonic or Demers
    B) Trade Eberle to Vegas for Pysyk/Petrovic +
    C) Trade Nuge for Barrie or Dumba
    D) Trade Nuge + for Faulk or Savard
    E) Sign Cody Franson or Michael Stone

    LD: Need a stop-gap until Sekera gets back
    A) Sign Russell
    B) Find a way to protect Reinhart; run him 3D
    C) Sign D of your choice (Campbell, Kulikov, Streit, Daley, Smith

    RW: Not necessary if you chose C) or D) in ‘2RD’
    A) Sign Depth: Pitlick, Foo, or Derek Ryan
    B) Sign stop-gap top 6 option: Vrbata, Versteeg, Hemsky, Vanek, Sharp, Eaves, Williams, etc.

    3C: Needed either way; McLellan loves the flexibility.
    A) Trade for Jarnkrok. #22 gets the conversation started.
    B) Trade the 2018 2nd for Erik Haula.
    C) Trade Maroon for Sobotka.
    D) Sign one of your choice: Bonino, Hanzal, Ryan, etc.
    E) Take a risk, make a bet: One of Sheahan, Eakin, Strome, etc.

    Backup
    A) Run with Broissoit
    B) Sign an FA on the market (name here…)
    C) Trade for ‘X’ goalie (name here…)

    First Round Selection: Choose your 3 preferred players in our range in order of most desirable.

    I ended up with:
    2RD: Trade Eberle for Hamonic
    LD: Sign Campbell
    RW: Sign Williams
    3C: Trade our 2018 2nd for Erik Haula
    Backup: Run with Broissoit
    First Round Selection: Vesalainen, Brannstrom, Yamamoto.

  58. McNuge93 says:

    If I understand this right a flat cap is a smart move by the players this year. Overall salary available is higher because of one new team LV. Maybe we don’t need that new 3C after all. See how it goes until the trade deadline. And use Fayne as stop gap until Sek is back. Either sign Russell short term or hopefully trade for a 2RD

  59. gadot10 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Diablo,

    gadot10,

    Read lowetides piece and tell me you have the same feelings.

    a flat cap is never good. not for a cap team like the Oilers.

    Ideally, it escalates both years.

    It is a horrible situation for the league, the players, and the fans if escrow is NOT contained at reasonble levels. An increase in the cap that does not result from an actual increase in revenues is a bad thing. It will breed tremendous instability.

    We lost have a season of McDavid due to injury. Do you want to lose a full year of the seven the Oilers have McDavid for to a lockout or strike?

    Shortsightedness with respect to the actual finances of the league is dumb.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    Diablo: Why Petrovic and not Pysyk … I haven’t seen either player at all … so I’d love to hear your scouting report on these two. Also what about Pulock? Thanks

    I think Petrovic is more of a Gryba whereas Pysyk is more of an offensive puckmover (who’s offence has really come yet).

  61. Diablo says:

    Centre of attention: https://oilersnation.com/2017/06/11/flat-cap-the-hell-you-say/

    I did … and I respectfully don’t agree with it.

    Having the cap stay flat, gives management a better bargaining position with McDavid/Draisaitl and Russell … “there is only so much money available” … “if you want to be a competitive team, then everyone has to sacrifice a bit” … “sure we could offer you more, but we wouldn’t be able to bring back the same depth as we had last year” etc.

    And it prevents the Oilers from spending like drunken sailors in UFA … no long-term big money contracts handed out to the likes of Hanzal or Boyle, that we will regret half a year later. This is perhaps the major difference in opinion that I have with his article …. I don’t want the Oilers to have the cap space to shoot themselves in the foot, by signing an ill-advised UFA deal.

    Where I disagree with LT’s article as well, is that it only looked at the potential effect it might have on the Oilers, and I found it to be a bit half glass empty (which was surprising actually, cause he’s normally such an optimistic gent). A wider view of the entire Western conference, tells a much different story. A flat cap really puts the squeeze on Chicago and Anaheim, two of the teams that we are trying to move past.

    Anyways … that’s my 0.02 cents … need about 5 bucks more for a Star$ucks latte.

  62. Lowetide says:

    Diablo: Why Petrovic and not Pysyk … I haven’t seen either player at all … so I’d love to hear your scouting report on these two. Also what about Pulock? Thanks

    They are pretty close to equal, either man would be fine. Petrovic is a little more physical, Pysyk a little better with the puck. It would be intersting to know which player the Panthers value more.

  63. Mantis says:

    Glass:

    RW: Not necessary if you chose C) or D) in ‘2RD’

    There is no option C listed.

  64. Centre of attention says:

    gadot10,

    I am not being short sighted at all.

    In my eyes, a lockout is unavoidable. A superficial escalation is still an escalation of the cap. And it will help the Oilers bottom line this summer irregardless. As LT’s math shows, with a relatively “stand pat” roster construction the Oilers will be 4 million over with a flat cap, perhaps more depending on what Chiarelli does.

    Sticky wicket any which way you look at it. I understand your reasoning but respectfully disagree with your conclusion.

  65. Diablo says:

    Centre of attention:
    gadot10,

    I am not being short sighted at all.

    In my eyes, a lockout is unavoidable. A superficial escalation is still an escalation of the cap. And it will help the Oilers bottom line this summer irregardless. As LT’s math shows, with a relatively “stand pat” roster construction the Oilers will be 4 million over with a flat cap, perhaps more depending on what Chiarelli does.

    Sticky wicket any which way you look at it. I understand your reasoning but respectfully disagree with your conclusion.

    That article fails to take into account the LTIR savings from Sekera, and Jesse probably starts the year in the minors (unless he completely blows the doors off in training camp), with Pakarinen replacing his cap hit in the NHL. That gets you pretty close to getting under the cap, but still over a bit (I haven’t run the numbers though).

    So you’re over the cap by a bit … that’s where Leon and Russel have to take less than what LT’s estimated there – 7 million for Leon, 3 million + term for Russell … save another 1.3 million.

    NHL players are getting paid more than at any other time in league history. Money is not the problem, and their share of league revenues should not be an issue. The game will grow to add another market, should cause the revenues to increase and the cap to go up without the aid of the escalator next season.

    But I’m in total agreement with you that we’re headed towards another lockout … though for different reasons this time … the lack of Olympics participation in favour of the NHL-sponsered World Cup, the concussion battle (Bettman and his cronies have gone so far as to try to strong arm Boston University to hand over confidential research data on CTE), and mental health care for retired players, the restrictive 50-man rosters … are just some of the grievances that we already know about.

    OTOH the NHL is going to push back hard this time to institute non-guaranteed contracts NFL-style … owners are probably getting fed up buying out contracts at full value, when both the NFL and NBA have much more team/owner friendly buyout mechanisms.

    Anyways, back on topic … with a bit of finessing the Oilers should be able to get under the cap for next season. They’ll have no room to maneuver of course, but the other contenders won’t either. Probably why the Oilers have been pumping up Eberle’s tires post-playoffs … to move his cap hit and give themselves some breathing space.

  66. TheFinn60 says:

    Lowetide,

    I do not think a trade involving Ebs will be done in any other way then Chia cut some sort of deal with LV. Make no sense to trade for something you need to protect and then expose some other valuable player, not to shred salary anyway.

    Chia is to smart for that. He might already have Foo “signed” and then goes after a 2D through a deal with Vegas. He might even go like: take so and so and you get Ebs if you give us so and so in return.

    Vegas will need some proven forwards and Ebs could be a good option for them.

    Anyway trading Ebs prior exp draft will not happen if the deal was not totally lopsided in Oilers favour, so not think Chia is that “dumb”.

    Just my 5 cent worth…

  67. who says:

    Glass:
    I hope you don’t mind Lowetide, delete if you want. Thought it’d be a fun little game…

    NHL Off-Season Choose Your Own Adventure!
    Rules: Make sure 2 or more selections don’t conflict; you can’t trade to same player twice.

    2RD
    A) Trade Eberle for Hamonic or Demers
    B) Trade Eberle to Vegas for Pysyk/Petrovic +
    C) Trade Nuge for Barrie or Dumba
    D) Trade Nuge + for Faulk or Savard
    E) Sign Cody Franson or Michael Stone

    LD: Need a stop-gap until Sekera gets back
    A) Sign Russell
    B) Find a way to protect Reinhart; run him 3D
    C) Sign D of your choice (Campbell, Kulikov, Streit, Daley, Smith

    RW: Not necessary if you chose C) or D) in ‘2RD’
    A) Sign Depth: Pitlick, Foo, or Derek Ryan
    B) Sign stop-gap top 6 option: Vrbata, Versteeg, Hemsky, Vanek, Sharp, Eaves, Williams, etc.

    3C: Needed either way; McLellan loves the flexibility.
    A) Trade for Jarnkrok. #22 gets the conversation started.
    B) Trade the 2018 2nd for Erik Haula.
    C) Trade Maroon for Sobotka.
    D) Sign one of your choice: Bonino, Hanzal, Ryan, etc.
    E) Take a risk, make a bet: One of Sheahan, Eakin, Strome, etc.

    Backup
    A) Run with Broissoit
    B) Sign an FA on the market (name here…)
    C) Trade for ‘X’ goalie (name here…)

    First Round Selection: Choose your 3 preferred players in our range in order of most desirable.

    I ended up with:
    2RD: Trade Eberle for Hamonic
    LD: Sign Campbell
    RW: Sign Williams
    3C: Trade our 2018 2nd for Erik Haula
    Backup: Run with Broissoit
    First Round Selection: Vesalainen, Brannstrom, Yamamoto.

    2RD – A. Trade Eberle and Fayne for Hamonic and Grabow ski or B. Trade Eberle for Petrovic from Vegas if they select Pouliot.
    LD stopgap – Reinhart, gotta find out about him sooner or later.
    RW-sign Pitlick or Foo or both.
    3C – take a risk E or do nothing.
    Backup- Broisoit
    Draft- have no idea.

  68. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide,

    I have a feeling it’d be Petrovic if Tallon is back in charge, which for all accounts sounds like he is.

  69. Barcs says:

    fifthcartel:
    Lowetide,

    I have a feeling it’d be Petrovic if Tallon is back in charge, which for all accounts sounds like he is.

    Yeah, wasn’t part of the reason they let Gallant go because he kept arguing for more physicality? Seem to recall that. That was before Tallon was put back in charge.

    That’s fine, I would go with Pysyk anyway if given my druthers.

    Puck movers that defend well but don’t put up a ton of points so they stay cheap. More of those please.

  70. LadiesloveSmid says:

    If Eberle has to go, Pysyk would be a hard target for me.

    Williams, Sharp, Versteeg for a hopefully cheap filler.

    I think Pulju could be a full-time effective middle 6er this coming season (I think he already was one).

    Campbell would be great to cover for Sekera’s absence, but I don’t think that’s happening. Davidson would’ve been too. I’d be down for trading Nurse for another blue and playing Reinhart too.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m all over moving Eberle plus something (22nd overall? Bear?) for David Savard. Then sign Derek Ryan and trade Pouliot for a pick with $1.25M of retained salary.

    Wingers are somewhat interchangeable:

    Maroon/McDavid/Nuge
    Lucic/Drai/Slep
    Caggulia/Ryan/JP
    JJ/Letstu/Kass

    Pak

    Klef/Larsson
    Sekera/Savard
    Nurse/Benning

    Gryba (if Reinhart is taken in a few weeks) Simpson

    Of course, Nurse will need to move to 2nd pairing while Sekera is out. I’d rather he force his way up the lineup then gifted 2nd pairing but, we have a major injury and I think we need to fill internally – Sekera will be back and a long-term replacement cannot be made for a short-term hole (for cap reasons).

  72. Ryan says:

    fifthcartel:
    Lowetide,

    I have a feeling it’d be Petrovic if Tallon is back in charge, which for all accounts sounds like he is.

    Petrovic has this puck optional / Gryba rap yet he’s posted back-to-back season of over a point per sixty at evens.

    Granted he hasn’t had a sniff of PP time and he has three career NHL goals so I’d imagine he has a muffin of a shot…

    But you don’t post over 1 point per hour two years in a row if you’re Gryba.

    You also do get an even share of elite comp to other dmen on your team.

  73. fifthcartel says:

    Barcs,

    I agree completely.

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