I have this working theory that history is about to repeat itself. Remember when we talked about Frank Seravalli’s list at the beginning of June 2016? That list is here, and the Oilers were ranked thusly:
- No. 1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
- No. 4: Oilers first-round pick (No. 4)
- No. 12: Jordan Eberle
- No. 18: Nail Yakupov
That was the June 3, 2016. Edmonton had four of the 18 names on the list and the commentary was Edmonton-centric.
- Frank Seravalli: The emergence of Leon Draisaitl, along with Connor McDavid, makes young centre Ryan Nugent-Hopkins the most logical departure. Chiarelli raised eyebrows around the league when he left Nugent-Hopkins off the initial roster of 16 players selected for Team North America in the upcoming World Cup of Hockey. Nugent-Hopkins was one of the final seven players added to the team on May 27. Source
He might have been the logical choice but the Nuge apparently didn’t turn the needle enough to get Peter Chiarelli’s defensive fix. By the morning of June 29, 2016, the list had changed:
- No. 1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
- No. 4: Taylor Hall
- No. 7: Nail Yakupov
- No. 10: Jordan Eberle
On the exact day he was dealt, Taylor Hall appeared on the list and there was clearly something going on around Nail. The amount of work that goes into these things must be exhaustive and credit to Seravalli (and others) for moving Hall up by the end of the month and his trade. Based on the way he conducts business, suspect the rankings received no aid from Peter Chiarelli.
The trade bait list gave us a road map on what was a series of moving targets throughout last spring. The No. 4 pick was in play until Jesse Puljujarvi fell, Hall then entered the conversation (around the draft) and the deal was completed right at the end of June. At the beginning of the month, if we believe this list, Hall was not a front runner for trade.
This June, the early list had Jordan Eberle at No. 6 and no other Oilers player listed. Two weeks later and Mr. Seravalli has Mr. Eberle at No. 3 and no other Edmonton player appears. Maybe we see a trade today, but on the other side of the expansion draft I wonder if the Nuge arrives at No. 4 with a bullet. The Fourth Period has Carolina, Montreal, Columbus and Detroit asking after 93.
I have to say, on this day at least, all signs point to sail on, Regina Patricia.
THE PRICE YOU PAY
- Aaron Portzline, Columbus Dispatch: The Jackets are believed to be trading this year’s first-round draft pick (No. 24 overall) and a prospect (not Pierre-Luc Dubois or Sonny Milano) to Vegas for assurances that the Golden Knights will select either left wing Matt Calvert, center William Karlsson or defenseman Ryan Murray. Vegas’ acquisition of the contract of injured veteran forward David Clarkson ($5.25 million salary cap hit) may also be part of the deal. Source
I am breaking my 24-hour rule so please click on the link, I assure you there is more interesting content there. Helluva article and the first big news of the weekend. The Golden Knights may walk away with a prospect, No. 24 overall and (say) Ryan Murray. They won’t take any of the top end talent the Blue Jackets must expose and they will be taking on Clarkson’s $5.25 million times three years deal.
- 5×5 points per 60: 1.10 (1st among regular Colorado defensemen)
- 5×4 points per 60: 2.81 (eight points in 208 minutes)
- Corsi for 5×5 %: 49.1
- Corsi Rel 5×5 %: 0.9
- DFF Elite 5×5 %: 43.3
- DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -1.2 (28 percent of TOI v. elites)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 182 shots/3.8%
- Boxcars: 74gp, 7-31-38
- (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
- Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s
I would prefer Travis Hamonic by some margin, there there are things to like about this player. First, he puts up points, 31 of them away from the PP this past season. He has chaos to his game, and didn’t play 33 percent of his time against elites, but his DFF rel isn’t wacko compared to the rest of the group. Overall Corsi 5×5 is good, actually, considering the team. I suspect you’d be looking at a spike in goals and power-play points for Barrie in 2018-19. If you get him for Eberle (I still think the Avs would prefer Nuge), the top 6D opening night might be Klefbom-Larsson, Russell-Barrie, Nurse-Benning. Then again, maybe trading for Barrie prices Edmonton out of the Russell marketplace. I’ll tell you one thing about Barrie: You’ll have enormous reaction to his play. He’s got a lot going on.
No. Money’s too tight to mention. Yes to Mika Zibanejad, though, all day. NYR are looking for a top pairing RH blue for Mr. Stepan. Tough to find. Source
MOCK DRAFT TODAY!
Today at noon on TSN1260, Paul Almeida and I will host a mock draft! We’ll have a 1-30 format, and guests popping in to make selections. Here is the lineup at this time:
— Paul Almeida (@AzorcanGlobal) June 17, 2017
All ties will be broken by my list (which appears here) and just for fun I’ll publish the top 30 names:
- RC Nolan Patrick, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). A complete talent but not an elite one. NHLE is 33.1, a low number for a No. 1 overall.
- LC Nico Hischier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). A more dynamic offensive player than Patrick. His NHLE (30.9) is also low.
- R Owen Tippett, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). He covers 3 important categories (size, speed, sniper). His NHLE (30.8) doesn’t tell his entire offensive story.
- L Elias Pettersson, Timra (Swe-1). Impressive talent, very skilled.
- RD Timothy Liljegren, Rogle (Swe Jr). He is a mobile 2-way D with impressive skill.
- RC Cody Glass, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Complete skill set and an offensive performance that puts him near the top of this year’s list (NHLE: 32.4).
- LC Casey Mittelstadt, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). Speed and skill, he’s going very early on day one of the draft. Offense good not great.
- RD Cale Makar, Brooks Bandits (AJHL). Fast, exceptional puck-moving acumen. His foot speed can help on offense and defense, and he’s a smart player.
- RC Gabriel Vilardi, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Creative C with size, NHLE (33) and a fabulous Memorial Cup performance.
- L Eeli Tolvanen, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Plus skater, NHL shot and release.
- R Kailer Yamamoto, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart, elusive, offensive. NHLE (36.2) compares well to any in this draft.
- RC Nick Suzuki, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Skill and creativity, he’s a magician with the puck and his NHLE (36.3) is the highest among the top group of CHL players this season.
- LD Miro Heiskanen, HIFK (Sm-Liiga). Puck-mover, excellent vision/speed.
- RC Robert Thomas, London Knights (OHL). Speedy forward, creative. RHC with the complete range of skills.
- LC Lias Andersson, Linkoping (SHL). Throwback 2-way C, aggressive, quick. 5.11, 200.
- RC Martin Necas, Brno (Czech). High speed skill. Moving up lists late.
- LD Juuso Valimaki, Tri-City Americans (WHL). A big two-way D, smart, creative. He is a fine skater and has good size.
- R Klim Kostin, Balashikha (MHL). Giant winger, good offense. He is 6.03, 196 and possesses a quality offensive resume despite (basically) being hurt all year.
- C Michael Rasmussen, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Big C, physical, good skater. I like him a lot (late birthday, size) but am uncertain about his offense (NHLE 26.2).
- LD Nicholas Hague, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Rangy, aggressive, emerging offense. He had 204 shots in 65 OHL games while scoring 18 goals, meaning he might be a modern (more mobile) Sheldon Souray.
- R Kole Lind, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Speedy W with skill. He’s a really close comparable in style to my recollection of Jordan Eberle and he can beat a goalie clean with his shot. NHLE (29.6) is solid.
- L Kristian Vesalainen, Frolunda (SHL). Big W, skilled, strong, can play L or R. He is fast and furious as a player and had a strong U18’s, but his regular season was mediocre.
- LD Erik Brannstrom, HV71 (SHL). Undersized skill defender, outstanding skater. A late 1999 who played in the SHL this past season, he’s going to be a difficult player to pass on for Edmonton (ideal fit).
- LC Alexei Lipanov, Dyanmo Balashikha (VHL). Impressive 2-way resume and he is an excellent skater. He is rail thin and has more room to grow, like him more as an offensive player than some in the two-way department.
- LC Ryan Poehling, St. Cloud State (NCAA). Big skill C with an offensive reputation. I think he would have been better off playing in the USHL this past season.
- LC Joshua Norris, USNDTP (USHL). Two-way C showing good offense and he spiked late. He was terrific at the U18’s.
- RC Ivan Lodnia, Erie Otters (OHL). Small skill F, great skater. He is more playmaker than shooter, and despite lack of size can hold off checkers and maintain possession.
- RD Conor Timmins, SSE Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, reads plays well, excellent passer. Nice range of skills, uncertain how much offense (NHLE: 22.3) he’ll bring with him to the NHL but there’s a story for sure. If the Oilers pick him at No. 22, there should be no surprise.
- RC Scott Reedy, USNDTP (USHL). Center with speed, range of skills, dynamic. Has some elements associated with a power forward and possesses a good shot.
- RC Morgan Geekie, Tri-City Americans (WHL). C w/2-way rep and emerging offense. This is his second year of eligibility but his spike offensively (90 points from 25 a year ago). He’s not as dynamic as the names above but he really stepped forward this year.