THE WEEK AHEAD

NHL teams will have to make do on $75 million this coming season, meaning $2 million extra in walking around money compared to last year.

POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER, CAP IMPACT

  • Still some cost uncertainty here, I have estimates on Leon Draisaitl, Kris Russell and Zack Kassian.
  • I’ve taken the bonus possibilities out and gathered them up at the end, Edmonton has over $7 million in possible (my thanks to Chris Lewkowicz for walking me through these things) bonuses.
  • Andrej Sekera is included here obviously he will go on LTIR. Edmonton would have to drive the cap right up to the top end without bonus considerations in order to take full advantage of LTIR cap relief.
  • I get the feeling we’re going to see more free-agent activity among forwards (Patrick Marleau, Sam Gagner, Radim Vrbata) and defensemen (Kris Russell, Cody Franson, Adam Clendening) and we’ll pick up that conversation on tomorrow morning’s post.

OLD TROLLING GEORGE

Have you been reading George McPhee quotes today? He sounds like the lost Corleone based on recent verbal. Frank Seravalli has the latest here, basically he’s the guy driving out to the desert like a bat out of hell in Casino.

Lordy. This might be the first sports franchise to go with the motto “The call is coming from inside the house!” I have a feeling they might reject the protected list! “More Leon’s” they’ll say!

MOCK DRAFT (ONE MORE TIME!)

  • First Round: No. 22 overall—RC Robert Thomas, London Knights (OHL). Speedy forward, creative. I have him ranked inside the top 15 overall, but he has a range of skills and the offense isn’t dominant so he will likely slip. Jeff Marek compares him to Bo Horvat, that’s a nice player this late in the first round.
  • Third Round: No. 82 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)—RC Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). He blossomed this season and ranks inside several top 100 scouting lists. He has emerged as a strong offensive player draft+1 and would represent a fine selection in the third round.
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall—L Jonah Gadjovich, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Emerging PF, a big time junior scorer and a volume shooter (275 shots in 60gp, averaging 4.58 per game). Uses his size well and is a load. Speed the only concern, but less of an issue in the third round.
  • Fourth Round: No. 115 overall—LD Michael Anderson, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). Strong, good speed, defense.
  • Fifth Round: No. 126 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen)—G Veini Vehvilainen, Jyp (Sm-Liiga). I never give up. He is a good prospect.
  • Fifth Round: No. 146 overall—R Brett Davis, Kootenay Ice (WHL). Good size, impressive offense for a June 1999.
  • Sixth Round: No. 177 overall—LC Bram Scheerer, Edina (USHS). He has size and skill, draft and follow.
  • Seventh Round: No. 208 overall—L Ethan McIndoe, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Has some elements of a power forward.

 

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29 Responses to "THE WEEK AHEAD"

  1. Rondo says:

    If the Oilers keep the #22 pick these are the possibilities in my opinion.

    Robert Thomas
    Klim Kostin
    Lias Andersson
    Erik Brannstrom

    Josh Norris
    Filip Chytil
    Kailer Yamamoto
    Ryan Poehling
    Isaac Ratcliffe
    Jason Robertson

  2. N64 says:

    George is very clear.
    He promises to talk to you before he moves your guy.
    No limit to how many times you can bid against yourself!

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its unfathomable to me that Manson is left unprotected without an official deal in place for Vegas not to take him but McPhee was clear than although he was some things “lined up” he has no official deals in place.

    PC needs to be in negotiations with McPhee to take Manson and flip him to the Oilers – I’m sure the cost would be high. It could be Nuge plus as Vegas will need offensive centers. Our 1st rounder would likely be involved. Maybe even JP.

    Do we do a deal for Manson with JP involved?

  4. leadfarmer says:

    I wonder who Chia has his eyes on and what the price will be for Vatanen or Dumba (I assume Manson rumors are true and he is protected). Dumba is only half a year older than Nurse so some of the wobble is expected and he can grow with the McDavid cluster. He does help move the puck which will be an issue when we re-sign Russell

  5. Mr DeBakey says:

    Third Round: No. 84 overall—L Jonah Gadjovich, Owen Sound Attack (OHL)

    Looking at CHL Forwards only.
    Using ES numbers only.
    Arbitrarily deciding that Goals should count as much as Assists means the formula is
    [Goals + Pts] / GP.

    The Top 20:
    Kailer Yamamoto ** 1.32
    Owen Tippett ** 1.32
    Jonah Gadjovich ** 1.27
    Nico Hischier ** 1.23
    Nolan Patrick ** 1.21
    Cody Glass ** 1.20
    Nick Suzuki ** 1.15
    Gabriel Vilardi ** 1.12
    Mason Shaw ** 1.11
    Jason Robertson ** 1.10
    Kole Lind ** 1.06
    Morgan Geekie ** 1.04
    Aleksi Heponiemi ** 1.03
    Nick Henry ** 1.01
    Matthew Strome ** 0.97
    Ivan Chekhovich ** 0.97
    Jaret Anderson-Dolan ** 0.96
    Lane Zablocki ** 0.95
    Macauley Carson ** 0.93
    Mitchell Balmas ** 0.93

  6. McNuge93 says:

    Rondo:
    If the Oilerskeep the #22pick these are the possibilities in my opinion.

    Robert Thomas
    Klim Kostin
    Lias Andersson
    Erik Brannstrom

    Josh Norris
    Filip Chytil
    Kailer Yamamoto
    Ryan Poehling
    Isaac Ratcliffe
    Jason Robertson

    Please no Kostin. Have a phobia about 1)drafting Russians in the first round or 2)drafting guys with injuries in first or second round

  7. Richard S.S. says:

    The 2017 1st Round Pick, Jesse Puljujarvi and one of Ethan Bear or Caleb Jones might very well be not enough.
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is better than any exposed Centers and better than any Center that would get traded. He could easily be a #1 C with the right wingers. He might not be enough.
    Jordan Eberle easily finishes in the top 20 right hand scoring every year. He fits well on all lines he plays on, yet he might not be enough.
    No one knows what George McPhee wants, not even him. Peter Chiarelli should tell him who he wants and goes from there, but he does tell him that the only offer he will be given is his final offer.

  8. JDI says:

    N64: No limit to how many times you can bid against yourself!

    George: I’ll give you my 2nd rounder in 2017 for the right to not pick one of your players.

    Jim: Make it a 3rd.

  9. Ice Sage says:

    Rondo:
    If the Oilerskeep the #22pick these are the possibilities in my opinion.

    Robert Thomas
    Klim Kostin
    Lias Andersson
    Erik Brannstrom

    Josh Norris
    Filip Chytil
    Kailer Yamamoto
    Ryan Poehling
    Isaac Ratcliffe
    Jason Robertson

    Norris is an impressive kid. We’ll be needing Guentzels and Shearys in a few years

  10. Diablo says:

    Richard S.S.:
    The 2017 1st Round Pick, Jesse Puljujarvi and one of Ethan Bear or Caleb Jones might very well be not enough.

    I would be very surprised if Anaheim has offered McPhee that much in assets to lay off picking Manson.

    Or put another way – what could Anaheim be offering McPhee to lay off picking Manson?

  11. leadfarmer says:

    Diablo: I would be very surprised if Anaheim has offered McPhee that much in assets to lay off picking Manson.

    Or put another way – what could Anaheim be offering McPhee to lay off picking Manson?

    Sounds like Vatanen and a first.

  12. Diablo says:

    leadfarmer: Sounds like Vatanen and a first.

    So they obtained a promise from McPhee that they would pass on Manson if Anaheim would abstain from trading Vatanen prior to the trade freeze, with the deal to be completed by the addition of Anaheim’s first round pick.

    If that’s the case, then the deal is done and Manson is essentially untouchable … I really doubt McPhee will welch on his arrangement with the Ducks. This isn’t fantasy hockey.

  13. BlueNoteNorth says:

    McPhee was clearly in the driver’s seat:

    Trade Vatanen and I will take Manson.
    Give me Vatanen and a sweetener and I’ll lay off.

    They might have got more by taking Manson and flipping him.

  14. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! i think some aren’t being realistic with what George is going to do:

    Bob Murray: “Hi George, we’d really like you not to take Mason. If you don’t we will give you a 2nd:

    George: “OK , things are fluid but let’s go with that”

    Chia: “Hi George, if you take Mason, we’d give you a 1st and Bear in a trade”

    George: “Hi Murray, remember that 2nd: price has gone up: a lot, sorry got to look out for us”

    – I hope George has someone on his team that is giving him negociation strategy and they have huge value tbles for the relative worth of things: The intention of the NHL to let LV take roster players, should turn into a mult-year accumulation of draft picks, unprecedented in NHL

  15. leadfarmer says:

    Diablo: So they obtained a promise from McPhee that they would pass on Manson if Anaheim would abstain from trading Vatanen prior to the trade freeze, with the deal to be completed by the addition of Anaheim’s first round pick.

    Montour made Manson much more valuable to the Ducks than Vatanen. Montour is cheaper and younger than Vatanen so Vatanen is easily replaced internally. With Theodore and Montour the loss of Vatanen is easily absorbed. They can’t replace Manson internally.

    If that’s the case, then the deal is done and Manson is essentially untouchable … I really doubt McPhee will welch on his arrangement with the Ducks. This isn’t fantasy hockey.

    Yeah people forget this is the good ole boys club. Your word is as good as a written contract. Otherwise you will get black balled by the other 30 GMs and you’ll never get another job in hockey again.

  16. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its unfathomable to me that Manson is left unprotected without an official deal in place for Vegas not to take him but McPhee was clear than although he was some things “lined up” he has no official deals in place

    Unfathomable and I doubt that was categorical. Took it as prescription for how he’s running this week’s auction. It’s an all out bidding war this week right to the deadline.

    Yeah a verbal contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. The NHL is on record that there are no side deals and the trade call process must be used when you have a real deal.
    McPhee was on record that he wanted to lock some down before the trade deadline. Ducks could have a registered unpublished deal and McPhee can still characterize possible directions as convertible to deals last day only.

  17. N64 says:

    Tried the TSN quick pick based on frequency of choices and I have only 1 question. Which of you clowns taught it to pick Gus for Goalie?

  18. JDI says:

    N64: Which of you clowns taught it to pick Gus for Goalie?

    Easier to ask which one of us didn’t.

  19. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If Anaheim somehow doesn’t have a protection deal in place Eberle Reinhart should be enough for Manson shouldn’t it? Eberle is better and more needed than Vatanen.

  20. meanashell11 says:

    you guys are all stoned. Ebs plus?? stoned.

  21. SoCaloil says:

    If I’m McPhee and I’m looking at that expansion list I’m would much rather get a deal w a pick involved

  22. Scungilli Slushy says:

    meanashell11:
    you guys are all stoned. Ebs plus?? stoned.

    What’s your idea

  23. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy: What’s your idea

    Mark Stoned

  24. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    For Ebs minus

  25. slopitch says:

    How much more then the 1st is Dumba or Manson worth?

    If GMGM has any value in Pouliot, I can see Pouliot gone at the expansion date followed by that pick going to Vegas. I mean Dougie Hamilton didn’t go for much more. Long term fot Vegas, if they can get a decent d (I think they can) then the best way to get scoring F is vis 1st round picks. Despite making too much money, Pouliot is a decent vet. Lastly, with the Sekera injury and possible large ask from the Russell camp, the Oilers need some LD depth. Most Oilers fans aren’t high on GR but he’s developing and was ok in the playoffs.

  26. misfit says:

    Karl Alzner would sure fill that right side defense spot nicely, and wouldn’t cost Eberle+, Nuge+, or whatever else is being tossed around here. And if we’re successful in that signing and had to dump salary, I’m sure the Islanders, Avs, Golden Knights or whoever has shown interest in our $6M man already would be willing to give up a pick and prospect for him.

    Why trade Eberle+ for a defenseman who isn’t as good as Alzner when you can get Alzner+ for Eberle?

  27. Diablo says:

    leadfarmer: Yeah people forget this is the good ole boys club.Your word is as good as a written contract.Otherwise you will get black balled by the other 30 GMs and you’ll never get another job in hockey again.

    Its a small club for sure – McPhee is a GM again because he has built up relationships with people across the league – I’m sure he’s not going to start burning bridges before the GKs play a game. Whatever the arrangement is with Anaheim, he’s going to honour it … Manson is not likely to be available. But it doesn’t hurt to ask though.

  28. dangilitis says:

    OK, I had to give the TSN simulator a try.

    Really hard. I have to say the biggest challenge is drafting some AHL prospects to emulate how most NHL teams draft/develop and save money, and I didn’t do nearly a good enough job here because I’m not a scout. So I suspect that Vegas has drastically different thoughts. I also think there will be deals to protect and plunder from other teams, but as McPhee says they will be holding on their hand unless dealt a better one.

    Going through the exercise makes me think Khaira is more possible, given the diversity of D available on good contracts that are more proven than Reinhart, and given the fact that Jujhar has an established affordable contract now.

    Also, quite torn between Dumba and Staal, given their absence of real depth at C with proposed picks. Staal’s contract is very affordable as well…

    Proposed expansion draft picks

    C
    Vadim Shipachyov
    Mikhail Grigorenko
    Jonathan Marchesseault
    William Karlsson
    Trevor Lewis/Alex Burmistrov/Marko Dano/Jordan Weal (C/W options)

    LW
    James Neal
    Kerby Rychel
    David Perron
    Joakim Nordstrom
    Jujhar Khaira

    RW
    Alex Radulov (sign as UFA)
    Michael Grabner
    Joel Ward
    Alex Chiasson

    LD
    Marc Methot
    Calvin de Haan
    Dan Hamhuis
    Luca Sbisa
    Jon Merrill

    RD
    Matthew Dumba
    Josh Manson
    Zac Bogosian
    Trevor van Riemsdyk
    Andrej Sustr
    Colin Miller

  29. N64 says:

    dangilitis:
    OK, I had to give the TSN simulator a try.

    Really hard. I have to say the biggest challenge is drafting some AHL prospects to emulate how most NHL teams draft/develop and save money, and I didn’t do nearly a good enough job here because I’m not a scout. So I suspect that Vegas has drastically different thoughts. I also think there will be deals to protect and plunder from other teams, but as McPhee says they will be holding on their hand unless dealt a better one.

    Going through the exercise makes me think Khaira is more possible, given the diversity of D available on good contracts that are more proven than Reinhart, and given the fact that Jujhar has an established affordable contract now.

    Also, quite torn between Dumba and Staal, given their absence of real depth at C with proposed picks. Staal’s contract is very affordable as well…

    Proposed expansion draft picks

    C
    Vadim Shipachyov
    Mikhail Grigorenko
    Jonathan Marchesseault
    William Karlsson
    Trevor Lewis/Alex Burmistrov/Marko Dano/Jordan Weal (C/W options)

    LW
    James Neal
    Kerby Rychel
    David Perron
    Joakim Nordstrom
    Jujhar Khaira

    RW
    Alex Radulov (sign as UFA)
    Michael Grabner
    Joel Ward
    Alex Chiasson

    LD
    Marc Methot
    Calvin de Haan
    Dan Hamhuis
    Luca Sbisa
    Jon Merrill

    RD
    Matthew Dumba
    Josh Manson
    Zac Bogosian
    Trevor van Riemsdyk
    Andrej Sustr
    Colin Miller

    A few caveats about D. GM² will have more 1st rounders than typical. A lot of that may be from flipping or protecting D. . If he brings in of lots of first rounders he’ll need some D depth.They will have done a very good scouting job in California. Would draft GR.

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