YOU’RE A NAUGHTY ONE, SAUCY JACK

The Chamber will tell you Edmonton summer is driven by festivals and walking on sunshine in the river valley. I’ll admit we all love the Folk Fest, the Fringe, Heritage Festival, Taste of Edmonton, Cariwest, but what drives this town is rumor. Hockey rumor. Oilers hockey rumor. If I started today and wrote down every rumor from every swinging Dick (and us guys are the worst) it would take me until Christmas to complete the chronicle. The most gossipy gossips who ever gossiped!

Patrick Marleau? He’s on the way! Kris Russell? He wants to stay, only a matter of money. In the McDavid era, these crazy rumors have an added gear: There’s a chance they’re true.

SCOTT CULLEN’S OILERS

I think Scott Cullen may not sleep much because he does 30 (soon to be 31) offseason game plans, one for each team. This year, he has the Oilers:

  • Adding L Patrick Marleau (27 goals via free agency), RD Travis Hamonic (trade for Jordan Eberle, quality second pairing solution), LD Kris Russell (another second pair D, he would play LH side until Andrej Sekera returned), L Andrew Desjardins (also free agency, candidate for Matt Hendricks role), LC Derek Grant (to replace Anton Lander as 5C, UFA) and RC-R Patrick Brown (FA) to push Iiro Pakarinen and others for 14F.
  • Offloading R Jordan Eberle (for Travis Hamonic), L Jujhar Khaira (expansion draft) and the already established losses of Anton Lander, Matt Hendricks. Cullen has Reinhart replacing Eric Gryba as 7D and Drake Caggiula as 3C.
  • Source

I find Cullen’s annual crystal ball look at the Oilers to be educational. He has the advantage of distance, and indifference (I don’t mean that in a bad way) about specific roster players. Scott Cullen sees the roster, believes the club needs a new second pairing, a first-person shooter for the McDavid line, and upgrades on the 4line (with Grant helping in the faceoff circle).

My list (as you know) includes two blue for the second pairing and a C-RW who can riff with Leon as a mirror man. I had a lash at the job back in May, trading Jordan Eberle and Mark Fayne to Florida for Nick Bjugstad and Mark Pysyk, while signing free agents Martin Hanzal (you all loved that idea) and Kris Versteeg (again, home run by me). I’m going to try again as we enter the big week, but let’s start with the possible targets out there.

TARGETS, DEFENSE

  1. RD Josh Manson, Anaheim Ducks. A dream solution to 2RHD
  2. RD Travis Hamonic, NY Islanders. The drums are beating loudly.
  3. RD Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild. Power play option, chaos in his game.
  4. LD Calvin DeHaan, NY Islanders. A fine player.
  5. RD Jason Demers, Florida Panthers. Veteran D visited Edmonton as UFA last summer.
  6. RD Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. Seems to be in the mix.
  7. LD Kris Russell FREE AGENT. GM and coach like him, good chance he’ll return.
  8. RD Kevin Shattenkirk FREE AGENT (80gp, 13-43-56). One year at big coin?
  9. RD Sami  Vatanen, Anaheim Ducks. Talented, inconsistent.
  10. LD Brandon Davidson, Montreal Canadiens. Would love to see him back.
  11. RD Cody Franson FREE AGENT. His fancy stats: Out of the blue and into the black.
  12. RD David Savard, Columbus. Rarely mentioned but an interesting option.
  13. LD Niklas Hjalmarsson, Chicago Blackhawks. Someone said he was available.
  14. LD Ryan Murray, Columbus Blue Jackets. Doesn’t seem a fit.
  15. RD Colin Miller, Boston Bruins. If available, interesting option.
  16. LD Brian Campbell FREE AGENT (80gp, 5-12-17). The man can still wheel.
  17. LD Zdeno Chara, Boston Bruins. Played over 23 minutes a game this past season.
  18. RD Michael Stone FREE AGENT (64gp, 3-12-15). Last chance Texaco.

TARGETS, FORWARDS

  1. LC Martin Hanzal FREE AGENT (71gp, 20-19-39). Has to be high priority.
  2. L Patrick Marleau FREE AGENT. (82gp, 27-19-46). New addition.
  3. L James Neal, Nashville Predators. Volume shooter.
  4. LC Brock Nelson, NY Islanders. What is Snow doing?
  5. R Jonathan Marchessault, Florida Panthers. Brilliant player, surprise exposure.
  6. R Radim Vrbata FREE AGENT (81gp, 20-35-55). Scorer.
  7. R Justin Williams FREE AGENT (80gp, 24-24-48). Luxury.
  8. LC Nick Bonino FREE AGENT (80gp, 18-19-37). Two-way C.
  9. C-R Ryan Strome, NY Islanders (69gp, 13-17-30). Rumors.
  10. R Sam Gagner FREE AGENT (81gp, 18-32-50). PP savant.
  11. R-L Thomas Vanek FREE AGENT (68gp, 17-31-48). Offensive option.
  12. R T.J. Oshie FREE AGENT (68gp, 33-23-56).  Not affordable.
  13. R Brett Connolly FREE AGENT (66gp, 15-8-23). Inexpensive scoring on RW.
  14. R Patrick Eaves FREE AGENT (79gp, 32-19-51). Volume shooter!
  15. RC Derek Ryan FREE AGENT (67gp, 11-18-29). Fine utility player.
  16. L Evander Kane, Buffalo Sabres (70gp, 28-15-43). Buy low power forward.
  17. RC Mika Zibanejad, New York Rangers. Averages 46 points per 82gp.
  18. LC Matt Duchene, Colorado Avalanche. Please please please Baby Jesus.
  19. LC Vladimir Sobotka, St. Louis Blues. Signed to a nifty $3.5 million times two.
  20. L Ilya Kovalchuk, New Jersey. Splendid KHL season, he’s coming back.
  21. R Pontus Aberg, Nashville Predators. Intriguing youngster.
  22. R Josh Anderson, Columbus Blue Jackets. Scored 17 goals, has size.
  23. R Brett Ritchie, Dallas Stars (78gp, 16-8-24). Shoots the puck a lot.
  24. RC Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche. UFA 2023. Would cost the moon.
  25. R Jaromir Jagr FREE AGENT (82gp, 16-30-46). Now 70, still going.
  26. RC Derek Stepan, NY Rangers. He would be higher, cap hit is very big.
  27. R Kris Versteeg FREE AGENT (69gp, 15-22-37). What he brings has value.
  28. R Ales Hemsky FREE AGENT (15gp, 4-3-7). Still brilliantly creative.
  29. LC Dominic Moore FREE AGENT (82gp, 11-14-25). PK and FO option.
  30. R Drew Stafford FREE AGENT (58gp, 8-13-21). Chiarelli type.
  31. LC Brian Boyle FREE AGENT (75gp, 13-12-25). He is on their list.
  32. R Jarome Iginla FREE AGENT (80gp, 14-13-27). He can still shoot the puck.
  33. L Patrick Sharp FREE AGENT. Depending on health and price.
  34. R Tyler Pitlick FREE AGENT (31gp, 8-3-11). Finally emerged, could return

BALANCE PHOTO ALERT!

It is possible we’ll see the balance photo this fall, with Peter Chiarelli getting closer to the goal. Scott Cullen identified second pair RHD, sniper for McDavid’s line and a more substantial 4line. I’m going to stick to my list.

CHIARELLI SUMMER NEEDS LIST

  1. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future.
  2. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen.
  3. Find a stopgap measure to replace Andrej Sekera’s minutes until he returns.
  4. Find a C-R who can help the offense and mirror Leon. Ideally a first-person shooter.
  5. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline.

We’re close to crossing off No. 1 on the list, if PC doesn’t make a big trade with George Corleone (as in trading Jesse Puljujarvi for Eric Staal) we can safely credit him for negotiating the rapids. Not a high bar, but as we see in Detroit some general managers weren’t up to the task. This list has remained the same for some time, only deletion is the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts and they won’t be here until July.

ASSETS LIST

  1. Jordan Eberle
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  3. Jesse Puljujarvi
  4. No. 22 overall
  5. Caleb Jones
  6. 2018 first-round selection
  7. Benoit Pouliot
  8. Anton Slepyshev
  9. Cap Space
  10. Jujhar Khaira
  11. Ethan Bear
  12. Griffin Reinhart

As you know, I am working on a theory that goes like this: After spending significant time shopping Jordan Eberle, general manager Peter Chiarelli moves away from that plan and sets course on solving his issues elsewhere. With that in mind, I set sail on making a deal.

  • Oilers trade D Mark Fayne, D Caleb Jones and R Jesse Puljujarvi to the Vegas Golden Knights for D Matt Dumba and R Jonathan Marchessault.
  • Oilers sign college free agent R Spencer Foo.
  • Oilers sign D Kris Russell to a two-year, $3.8 million deal.

OILERS PROJECTED ROSTER AND CAP

  • The Oilers get their second pairing in Russell and Dumba, with Sekera coming back mid-season (another blue would have to be signed of course).
  • The bonuses are less because of the Puljujarvi trade, also impacting the cap.
  • I am kicking the cap problem down the road but this team has a better chance to win.
  • If Peter Chiarelli wanted to push that cap up to the point where the LTIR for Sekera could benefit the team, an addition big ticket free agent would be in order. I can’t see anyone on a one-year deal who would be willing and have it benefit the team.
  • Up the middle this team is good, and may even rock when Andrej Sekera gets back.
  • I mortgaged the future for now. That’s the bad news. The good news? I’d hang a balance photo on this roster.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back! A full boat and the bases are drunk! TSN1260, beginning at 10, scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Expansion draft and how many awards for Connor McDavid this week?
  • Tom Lynn, Player Agent. George McPhee is acting like a Corleone. What would a good week for him look like?
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers roster will see changes in the next two weeks, what is Jason looking for?
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue/The SuperFan. What does Sunil like on that LV possible roster?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Soon!

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151 Responses to "YOU’RE A NAUGHTY ONE, SAUCY JACK"

  1. Louis Levasseur says:

    Hi Lowetide. Is it fair to say that based on your proposed trade with Vegas, that you have serious concerns with young Jessie? It seems like a steep price to pay by including both Jones and Puljujarvi.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Louis Levasseur:
    Hi Lowetide.Is it fair to say that based on your proposed trade with Vegas, that you have serious concerns with young Jessie?It seems like a steep price to pay by including both Jones and Puljujarvi.

    I think he’s going to be a fine player, but wonder about the offense. Ideally, you trade Eberle or Nuge, but JP is an asset who would have extreme value to the VGK.

  3. Diablo says:

    TSN reporting that Vegas is talking with Russell…

  4. dsr29 says:

    Just curious why Josh Manson is a dream solution. Seems like a good player, maybe a lesser Adam Larsson. He’s 25, 26 in October, still yet to play 200 games and provides little offense. I would prefer to see a more complete 2RD that could help on the pp. Think he’d be a good addition but not at the cost it would appear to take.

  5. jonrmcleod says:

    I am doing my second annual Blogger Awards. Results will be posted at the end of the week. Voting is now live.

    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSe7Q03mi6qcjjRwf_4mh4jnAder-fLciDH1PSuNaLRxINiJKg/viewform

    If you vote and see any problems with the form, please let me know. No sign-in is required.

  6. LMHF#1 says:

    Diablo:
    TSN reporting that Vegas is talking with Russell…

    Pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease

  7. digger50 says:

    jonrmcleod,

    Great Idea Jon

    I know I am without a doubt in the best hockey blog on the net. Still, I enjoy reading content and opinions from all.

  8. Psyche says:

    That’s the first time I’ve heard about Marleau to the Oilers (in recent months). I noticed that he won 53.5% of his face-offs last season (not sure of the total attempts). Is he perceived as a LW/C option? I’m guessing that Coach Todd had him taking draws back in the days together in SJ.

  9. Louis Levasseur says:

    Lowetide,

    I agree that he’s slipped a bit this past year, but one year ago we, and the Oiler brass, were tripping all over ourselves on having him drop into our laps at #4. Now one transition year later he seems to have lost his shine. Dumba, for me, is ok, but not sure I give up a huge package to get him. He will want to get paid, if he isn’t already. As for Marshessault, he had a good year last year, but was a huge minus player. He’s not young and he’s small. A one hit wonder? If he was that valuable I have to think that he’d still be in Florida’s plans, or Tampa’s or Columbus’ or whoever else he once belonged to.

  10. Diablo says:

    dsr29:
    Just curious why Josh Manson is a dream solution. Seems like a good player, maybe a lesser Adam Larsson. He’s 25, 26 in October, still yet to play 200 games and provides little offense. I would prefer to see a more complete 2RD that could help on the pp. Think he’d be a good addition but not at the cost it would appear to take.

    I agree, he’s a bit over-rated by this blog. He’s a solid 2nd pairing RHD, whose been zoomed by playing mostly with Lindholm and some with Fowler – he’s played with those guys almost exclusively since he arrived in the NHL (last season!), so there is no evidence that he can carry a D-pairing, which is something he’d be asked to for the Oilers. He’s also got a famous name, though he’s no where near as good as his old man. For that he’s going to want 4-5 million on his next deal.

    Also he’s not likely to be available, as Anaheim reportedly has a side deal in place with Vegas to select Vatanen instead.

    The lack of trade activity has people here losing stock of their senses a bit.

  11. digger50 says:

    Thoughts:

    JJ Khaira or Griff Rienhart – what value do they really have to Vegas?

    Since they are unlikely to even make the starting line up, yet they wont clear waivers, what value do they really have?

    Turn them into assets, what is the return? Third round pick? Second round pick?

    What about Poulliot? LT had a good potential idea around Eberle that Vegas could do and that is once you get him, retain salary and put him out there to gain other assests such as picks. The same could be done for Poulliot. Put him out there for 2M and you will easily get a third rounder for him.

    But the question for Vegas is “Why bother?”

    Lots of farting around to get a third rounder back, maybe a second rounder. Might be simpler and easier to say Edmonton, just give us a third rounder and we’ll be on our way….

  12. Silver Streak says:

    Hey Guys…I must have missed something in the expansion draft rules…..i read somewhere last night that Vegas has the option of NOT accepting just the offered players from team B to keep safe that player from team B even after the initial list had been submitted ( where we are currently )…….but that Vegas can now go shopping and actually auction, or set up multiple other offers for that original player from other teams !! WTF…..is this correct ??

  13. N64 says:

    digger50: Since they are unlikely to even make the starting line up, yet they wont clear waivers, what value do they really have?

    After they do protect and flips deals for 1st round picks are you sure they aren’t starting depth?

  14. TO10801 says:

    Lowetide,

    Just wondering what you think about Sustr or Dotchin from TB. Both young RHD that likely won’t have the cost of a Dumba. I’m guessing you want to aim higher?

  15. Whatif says:

    I absolutely love the trade suggested for Dumba and Marchessault. Finally a proposal that is outside the group think box.

    Both of these players can skate and have talent. Furthermore, they are both relatively young with an opportunity to develop beyond where they currently are.

    Full marks LT.

  16. digger50 says:

    Louis Levasseur:
    Lowetide,

    I agree that he’s slipped a bit this past year, but one year ago we, and the Oiler brass, were tripping all over ourselves on having him drop into our laps at #4.Now one transition year later he seems to have lost his shine.Dumba, for me, is ok, but not sure I give up a huge package to get him.He will want to get paid, if he isn’t already.As for Marshessault, he had a good year last year, but was a huge minus player.He’s not young and he’s small.A one hit wonder?If he was that valuable I have to think that he’d still be in Florida’s plans, or Tampa’s or Columbus’ or whoever else he once belonged to.

    Agree on JP. If we are mortgaging the future, I’d rather give p this years #22 than JP. Not the same value, but still rather build a package around the pick vs JP

  17. SoCaloil says:

    I don’t see how your proposed trade to Vegas works. That’s beyond lobsided and unreasonable

  18. theres oil in virginia says:

    Love the opening to the article, LT. Hopefully my comment the other day about not believing anything I’m hearing (smokescreen) did not come across as a chide.

  19. digger50 says:

    You would think Vegas would be happy to receive Eberle in exchange for one of their talented D men.

    I like:

    Eberle, Poulliot, Osterle Jones. for Dumba and Nelson.

    Eberle improves their team now
    Pou they retain $ and flip, helps both teams and Pou himself
    two prospects, one waiver ineligible

    Fair? Throw in a third rounder?

    Agree they sign Foo and Russel

  20. JDI says:

    Silver Streak: but that Vegas can now go shopping and actually auction, or set up multiple other offers for that original player from other teams

    Here’s what Vegas can’t do:

    1) Buy out a player they select in expansion until next summer.

    2) Trade a selected player back to his original team (until December, if I recall).

    Other than that, they can do anything and everything that can be considered normal hockey asset management. But as always, if McPhee does anything to piss off the other GMs, then he’ll see that come back to him in other ways, so obviously he wants to remain a good guy in the eyes of his peers.

  21. Diablo says:

    Silver Streak:
    Hey Guys…I must have missed something in the expansion draft rules…..i read somewhere last night that Vegas has the option of NOT accepting just the offered players from team B to keep safe that player from team B even after the initial list had been submitted ( where we are currently )…….but that Vegas can now go shopping and actually auction, or set up multiple other offers for that original player from other teams !!WTF…..is this correct ??

    Nobody really knows for sure – from what has managed to leak out it seems there are 3-4 teams (Columbus, Chicago, Anaheim, NYI) that have deals “in place” to protect certain players – we don’t know if they have a written or merely a verbal agreement since the NHL is suppressing news on any deals that may have been finalized. Now that the expansion lists have been finalized, there is speculation that McPhee could in theory renege on those deals and see if he can get a better return.

    I think it is far more likely that those 4 teams have made trades that were approved by the league prior to finalizing the expansion lists, and they will be announced on Weds once the gag order is lifted.

  22. JDI says:

    There’s talking, and then there’s talking:

    Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun 2h2 hours ago

    Hearing that VGK touched base with the Kris Russell camp though nothing serious at this point. VGK will check in with several UFAs…

  23. TheGreatMutato says:

    Enjoy this photo of two-time Stanley Cup winner, Justin Schultz drinking by himself during the celebratory parade:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DCS6wRgWAAEcFge.jpg

    We always knew it was going to end this way 🙂

  24. Fortinbras says:

    I have to think Jonathan Marchessault is not the answer. He’s a small winger coming off a career year, with nothing resembling that level of production previously. Oh, and -21.

  25. JJS says:

    Question for the group – how valuable is a power play point shot these days?

    I am in my mid 40s so still have visions of MacInnis and Souray blasting away. And I love seeing Weber and Subban hammer it today.

    But in today’s game, is it as critical as having a playmaker walk the blue line?

    I think for the Oilers, this is a critical question as it would appear Dumba has the best shot, Barrie the most offence, and Hamonic the best 2 way play.

    The best tool for our job really depends on how we wish to run the power play for the next 5 years.

  26. JDI says:

    TheGreatMutato: We always knew it was going to end this way 🙂

    Just him and his old buddy Weiser.

  27. JDI says:

    jonrmcleod: Blogger Awards

    Remember – THERE ARE NO LOOSERS!

  28. dustrock says:

    JJS:
    Question for the group – how valuable is a power play point shot these days?

    I am in my mid 40s so still have visions of MacInnis and Souray blasting away.And I love seeing Weber and Subban hammer it today.

    But in today’s game, is it as critical as having a playmaker walk the blue line?

    I think for the Oilers, this is a critical question as it would appear Dumba has the best shot, Barrie the most offence, and Hamonic the best 2 way play.

    The best tool for our job really depends on how we wish to run the power play for the next 5 years.

    If you ask Tyler Dellow, it’s not as important. He looked at San Jose’s PP with Burns firing away from the point, and though Burns got lots of goals and a ton of shots, overall he felt the SJ PP was less efficient than in previous years.

  29. McSorley33 says:

    I am very curious about what LV is getting from some teams…because – I can think of worse ways to start off a franchise that with Matt Dumba ( 22), Calvin De Haan (26) and Josh Manson ( 25) anchoring your D for years..

  30. Stud Muffin says:

    Trading Puljujarvi and the only forward you get back is 5’8 thatIs due to comeback to earth. That would be a major major down Arrow.

  31. Diablo says:

    JJS:
    Question for the group – how valuable is a power play point shot these days?

    I am in my mid 40s so still have visions of MacInnis and Souray blasting away.And I love seeing Weber and Subban hammer it today.

    But in today’s game, is it as critical as having a playmaker walk the blue line?

    I think for the Oilers, this is a critical question as it would appear Dumba has the best shot, Barrie the most offence, and Hamonic the best 2 way play.

    The best tool for our job really depends on how we wish to run the power play for the next 5 years.

    You’ve raised a very good point. It is assumed that having a big cannon from the point would open up more space down low for the forwards. But there is a lot of evidence that goalies are too good now to be consistently beaten by a clapper from the blue line.

    For instance, neither Burns nor Karlsson employ the big clapper much – they are constantly in motion and prefer to take wrist shots in order to direct the puck through all the sticks and legs to the net, hoping to sneak one past a screened goalie, or get a favourable deflection.

    Given that we already have the Klef-‘bomb’, arguably finding a D-man with a big shot is not really necessary (just have Klef shoot the puck more). The weakness on the Oiler’s blue line last year, was not having someone who confidently carry the puck through the neutral zone and push the pace to put the opposition back on their heels – a ‘Barrie”-type (or the antithesis of Russell). Nurse has some ability in that regard, but has no idea what to do with the puck once he’s gained the opposition blue line.

    I haven’t watched Dumba much, so I’m not sure what his strengths and weaknesses are.

    Barrie would add a unique element to the Oilers attack in that he is a fabulous skater with excellent offensive instincts – but one would have to be confident that we could pair him up with a D-partner that can mitigate what he gives up in the D-zone.

  32. Diablo says:

    Rondo: http://www.tsn.ca/hischier-rides-meteoric-rise-to-top-of-tsn-draft-ranking-1.783025

    Damn – Maker up to 4 now and Liljegren down to 16. Tippett at 10.
    This draft is going to be all over the place after the first 2 picks.

  33. rickithebear says:

    Offensive Dman abandon defence of the free path to their HD area. were goals go in at 5 times the rate f perimeter shots.
    they usually have poor HD shot rates to their side.
    and
    eliminate the ability for forwards to press the neutral zone which allows the D to press the bull.
    they and the forwards often yield high CA rates.

    this is all done so they can generate even offence at a mid 4th line forward level.
    D Even offensive production the last 2 seasons.
    750 EVTOI 220 D into #8 D
    443 forwards into #15 fwd
    1. Burns 1.60 EVP/60
    161- 165 (#6) Fwd: Eichel; E. Staal, J. Staal, Frolik, Ryan

    2. Karlsson 1.49 EVP/60
    200-203 (#7) Fwd

    D 3-5. Skeji, Hamilton, Hedman 1.30 to 1.22
    277-295 (#10) Fwd

    D 6-15: Clandening; Markov; Byfuglien; Subban; Letang , Orlov, Josi Carlson, Chychrun, Klingberg
    1.17 to 1.09
    #310 – 330 (#11) Fwd

    D 16-23 1.05 to .97
    #351 to 373 (#12-13 Fwd)
    Press box Fwd offence

    D 24-34 .95 to .92
    #377 to #382 (#13 Fwd)
    All but 2 of the top 30 offensive D is #10 to #13 Fwd production

    D 35 to 59 .90 to .83
    #384 to 407 (#13-14 Fwd)

    After the first 2 Dmen; The top 30 D ismid 4th to press box forward offence.
    That is offensive!

    To say mansons offence is poor?
    That is all but 2 Dmen in the game!

    that is why Getting the puck to the 330 to 410 forwards who are more effective as quickly as possible is a huge asset.
    Dmen skating the puck up is the worst you can do.

    Manson is the 2nd best EVA/60 Dman on Anahiem
    while being the best SA60 Dman in the game
    and
    top 30 EVGA dman.

  34. dustrock says:

    Stud Muffin:
    Trading Puljujarvi and the only forward you get back is 5’8 thatIs due to comeback to earth. That would be a major major down Arrow.

    I’d like to see Marchessault’s scoring against the Western Conference playoff teams.

  35. Diablo says:

    McSorley33:
    I am very curious about what LV is getting from some teams…because – I can think of worse ways to start off a franchise that with Matt Dumba ( 22), Calvin De Haan (26) andJosh Manson ( 25)anchoring your D for years..

    Are any of those players destined to be more than 2nd pairing D?

    Is it better to be a mediocre team that gets into the playoffs right away like Florida did, or would it be better to tank for a few years and collect a lot of high end young talent like TB did. The latter approach comes without a guarantee of a Stanley, as Ottawa can attest to.

    Whether McPhee selects any of those D probably depends on whether LV wants to be competitive right away, or whether they are aiming to be build a nucleus of players that will coalesce 4-5 years from now – if its the latter plan that they’ve chosen, then its in their best interest to get picks and waiver-exempt prospects.

  36. Melman says:

    LT – out of curiosity would either the Pittsburgh (wobble in their D) or Nashville (thin scoring up front) roster at the start of last season warranted the infamous Balance Photo? I wonder how many NHL teams fall into Balance territory at the beginning of any given season. Half?

  37. Diablo says:

    rickithebear:

    Manson is the 2nd best EVA/60 Dman on Anahiem
    while being the best SA60 Dman in the game
    and
    top 30 EVGA dman.

    Ricki – thanks for that info. Could you tell us how does Manson compare to Lindholm and Fowler? My concern with Manson is that he is being carried by two other clearly talented D-men.

  38. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Marchessault has red lights flashing all around him, and the cops have nothing to do with it.

    He’s turning 27, no established NHL history, 15.5 SH%, -21 as said, not a full time C. His previous year 17 pts in 45 games, -10 and 8.6 SH%. Stevie didn’t want him on a small contract.

    Good for him how it’s going, seems like a better fit for for the Knights who probably need offense of any description rather than the Oilers. I see a high risk of a one dimensional player getting a contract he can’t live up to over it’s term.

  39. Diablo says:

    Anyone know what exactly Holland was thinking protecting Howard?

  40. Diablo says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Marchessault has red lights flashing all around him, and the cops have nothing to do with it.

    He’s turning 27, no established NHL history, 15.5 SH%, -21 as said, not a full time C. His previous year 17 pts in 45 games, -10 and 8.6 SH%. Stevie didn’t want him on a small contract.

    Good for him how it’s going, seems like a better fit for for the Knights who probably need offense of any description rather than the Oilers. I see a high risk of a one dimensional player getting a contract he can’t live up to over it’s term.

    Yep – one hit wonder.

  41. GCW_69 says:

    The centre options for Vegas are poor. If I were GMGM I would be calling the Avs on Duchene and Oilers on Nuge.

    And if I were Chiarelli, I would be asking for a quality depth centre like Nelson and a right defender like Dumba/Vatanen/Manson. If it’s Dumba, no even out likely required. If Vatanen or Manson, maybe. But as we and the Leafs have learned, getting 1Cs and 2Cs is very hard. Avs and Oilers have a chance to leverage this with Vegas likely be defence rich and centre poor to drive an interesting deal.

  42. Professor Q says:

    dustrock: If you ask Tyler Dellow, it’s not as important.He looked at San Jose’s PP with Burns firing away from the point, and though Burns got lots of goals and a ton of shots, overall he felt the SJ PP was less efficient than in previous years.

    If I remember correctly, this was actually due to Vlasic. I had come across it a few days ago on Fear the Fin (albeit an older article) and mentioned it here during a similar discussion and detracting of Burns.

  43. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Marchessault has red lights flashing all around him, and the cops have nothing to do with it.

    He’s turning 27, no established NHL history, 15.5 SH%, -21 as said, not a full time C. His previous year 17 pts in 45 games, -10 and 8.6 SH%. Stevie didn’t want him on a small contract.

    Good for him how it’s going, seems like a better fit for for the Knights who probably need offense of any description rather than the Oilers. I see a high risk of a one dimensional player getting a contract he can’t live up to over it’s term.

    His +/- was second worst only to Ekblad, JM’s TOI has him 7th forward on the Panthers, third line usage. 65% of his points were 5v5 which is good, seems like he lost the war though.

  44. Professor Q says:

    Scungilli Slushy: His +/- was second worst only to Ekblad, JM’s TOI has him 7th forward on the Panthers, third line usage. 65% of his points were 5v5 which is good, seems like he lost the war though.

    And he Marchessaultn.

  45. jtblack says:

    TheGreatMutato,

    “We always knew it was going to end this way ” – That’s the poor me pity party … Cherry Picking 101. PLease post a pick of Yakupov. Gagner and the numerous other ex oilers with the same caption; we always knew it would end this way!

    Just sayin’ …

    And good for Schultz. Got in a great situation and flourished … Happens to every team throughout the league .. sometimes a change of scenery IS what is required for a player to reach their original potential ..

  46. Chachi says:

    Diablo:
    Anyone know what exactly Holland was thinking protecting Howard?

    He was probably working on his Opus instead of paying attention to the protected list.

  47. Justthestatsman says:

    Diablo:
    Anyone know what exactly Holland was thinking protecting Howard?

    Perhaps a dumb question, but does he have a no movement clause?

  48. jtblack says:

    “I mortgaged the future for now. That’s the bad news. The good news? I’d hang a balance photo on this roster.”

    LT: Is there a way to hang the Balance photo W/O mortgaging the future? My hope is PC can find a way.

    Also, you were considering moving Draisatl one summer ago, and have conceded on your blog that it would have been a mistake in Hindsight. I see JP in the same light. I could see being down on JP if he was posting Jake Virtanen stats … But JP, given age, language, first time away from home and every other factor, had a great year. If he was in the CHL, like Leon was, he would have tore it up (would you agree?) …

    anyway, of course you might be right and JP’s offense may not arrive at the NHL level. But IMO he is tracking great. Outside of the freaks likes McD, nobody steps in at 18 and looks good. Smyth was horrible at 19. Drai was horrible at 18. I think JP”s offense AND overall package will arrive and will have us all looking back, saying, I am glad we did not move that piece!

    Love your stuff. Expansion draft aside, cannot wait for the NHL Entry Draft!!

  49. Ducey says:

    Mortgaging the future is a big friggin problem. There are a lot of teams that figured they would wait to deal with issues down the road, and they got hammered.

    Teams like CHI and PIT have figured out that you keep your core and keep the kids coming in.

    When Connor’s $10 Million kicks in, this team is going to need good young cheap players.

    Dumba will need a big raise next year as he will be in his last RFA year.

    Jones and Bear are the heir apparents on D. JP, Benson, hopefully Foo, and whoever they pick at 22 this week will be the main pieces up front.

    The can manage the situation well enough this year by signing Russell for the 2nd paring RHD and an older LHD to play 1/2 the season. Keep JP on the farm for 1/2 the season and you need not worry about his bonus.

    Remember, it is important to have a strong team come the playoffs. You don’t need balance in October. By playoff time the Oilers will have Sekera back, with Nurse and Benning challenging for 2nd pairing. I really don’t think they need a year of Dumba.

    If they can’t sign Russell, then they likely do have a problem. Hence the Eberle rumours.

  50. digger50 says:

    Paging Swedish Poster

    Look forward to hearing your favorites for the upcoming entry draft.

  51. GCW_69 says:

    Took a look at the cost of the top 4 defenders on each of the final 8 excluding the Oilers.

    I excluded rentals in the calc, which made Shattenkirk interesting.

    In you put Shattenkirk back in with St. LOUIS, you get an average top 4 cost of $18.2M. Only one team was over $20 million and that was Ottawa.

    If Edmonton targets the average US or minus $500K they should be looking for a top 4 defender for about $4.3M plus or minus $500K.

  52. Professor Q says:

    Justthestatsman: Perhaps a dumb question, but does he have a no movement clause?

    Unfortunately, the contract is only for 2 more years AND the NTC is only for next year.

    I do suppose they could have asked him to waive it but maybe they have a deal with Vegas in place.

  53. Diablo says:

    Professor Q: Unfortunately, the contract is only for 2 more years AND the NTC is only for next year.

    I do suppose they could have asked him to waive it but maybe they have a deal with Vegas in place.

    The NTC should not have prohibited Detroit from exposing him.
    Real head scratcher.

  54. Ducey says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Marchessault has red lights flashing all around him, and the cops have nothing to do with it.

    He’s turning 27, no established NHL history, 15.5 SH%, -21 as said, not a full time C. His previous year 17 pts in 45 games, -10 and 8.6 SH%. Stevie didn’t want him on a small contract.

    Good for him how it’s going, seems like a better fit for for the Knights who probably need offense of any description rather than the Oilers. I see a high risk of a one dimensional player getting a contract he can’t live up to over it’s term.

    I don’t think we need worry. Doesn’t seem like a Chia or TMac type player.

  55. Ducey says:

    Justthestatsman: Perhaps a dumb question, but does he have a no movement clause?

    Modified NTC. Can only be traded to 10 teams.

    If he does not want to be traded, he picks 10 teams that don’t need goalers.

  56. misfit says:

    Those red lights flashing around Marchessault was the goal light…30 times last year.

    I think it’s wise to be wary of a single productive season from a 26 year old rookie, but he’s shown an ability to score goals at pretty much every level so far. 30 and 40 goal seasons in junior, and he’s never scored less than 20 in any of his 5 AHL seasons. Yes, he’s small, and yes, it’s probably not wise to expect 30 from him next year, but for $750K and the fact that the rest of FLA’s list is pretty weak, he’s probably worth the risk.

  57. Diablo says:

    GCW_69:
    The centre options for Vegas are poor. If I were GMGM I would be calling the Avs on Duchene and Oilers on Nuge.

    I don’t know that I’d classify their C options as ‘poor’
    – Cody Eakin
    – Riley Sheahan
    – Jonathan Marchessault
    – Eric Staal (still has 2 years on his deal at very reasonable money)
    – Brock Nelson
    – Ryan Strome
    – Casey Czikas
    – Jori Lehtera

    RNH is a more attractive option than all of them. The NYI centres may be off-limits depending on the deal that Snow has negotiated, but LV should still be able to assemble a decent group of centres.

  58. Ducey says:

    misfit:
    Those red lights flashing around Marchessault was the goal light…30 times last year.

    I think it’s wise to be wary of a single productive season from a 26 year old rookie, but he’s shown an ability to score goals at pretty much every level so far.30 and 40 goal seasons in junior, and he’s never scored less than 20 in any of his 5 AHL seasons.Yes, he’s small, and yes, it’s probably not wise to expect 30 from him next year, but for $750K and the fact that the rest of FLA’s list is pretty weak, he’s probably worth the risk.

    The problem is that the goal light behind his own net went off 21 times more than the opposition one.

    He was -10 in 45 games in TBay the year before.

    He is going to have to play some defense. Usually that puts a big dent in a lot of players offense, and many smaller players are unable to do it at all.

  59. Scungilli Slushy says:

    GCW_69:
    Took a look at the cost of the top 4 defenders on each of the final 8 excluding the Oilers.

    I excluded rentals in the calc, which made Shattenkirk interesting.

    In you put Shattenkirk back in with St. LOUIS, you get an average top 4 cost of $18.2M. Only one team was over $20 million and that was Ottawa.

    If Edmonton targets the average US or minus $500K they should be looking for a top 4 defender for about $4.3M plus or minus $500K.

    Benning and Nurse are up next year. I don’t think the Oilers can bring in anyone for more than a year unless they want to move Sekera and can get him to agree. Or one of the young guys is involved in a deal, and then the other will have to wait for either the cap to allow a bigger payday or Sekera to move on.

    I think Sneaky Pete foreshadowed this in referring to needing to provide room for growth for players.

  60. JDI says:

    Chris Johnston‏Verified account @reporterchris

    George McPhee has told NHL teams that today is the last day they’ll complete a trade to protect their players.

  61. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT!

    – Looking at next year: Sek = key. Sek in the line-up: this team was a Stanley Cup team contender

    – Assume they sign Russell and slot Griff at #3LHD, you have some combo of Nurse/Benning/Russel/Griff as the bottom -2 pairings.

    – So the path of least resistance is another UFA on a show me contract: Kulikov, Polack, DelZotto, Franson: get guys who sign for 2 years max

    – This way you have multiple options (5 guys for 4 D spots, plus Fayne/Gryba), you can wait for Sek to come back, you can make another trade at deadline if need be.

    – Beaulieu cost only a 3rd rounder: there will be players we can get who have established levels of NHL play without breaking the bank.

  62. slopitch says:

    Big time pass on the suggested trade by LT. Id move JP but not for that return.

  63. Scungilli Slushy says:

    misfit:
    Those red lights flashing around Marchessault was the goal light…30 times last year.

    I think it’s wise to be wary of a single productive season from a 26 year old rookie, but he’s shown an ability to score goals at pretty much every level so far.30 and 40 goal seasons in junior, and he’s never scored less than 20 in any of his 5 AHL seasons.Yes, he’s small, and yes, it’s probably not wise to expect 30 from him next year, but for $750K and the fact that the rest of FLA’s list is pretty weak, he’s probably worth the risk.

    For sure he could be a late bloomer. He’s cheap but I don’t see a good fit for Edmonton, style wise or production wise. I don’t see certainty that playing a more responsible game he’d be better or even as good as in house options, given good linemates and chances as he’d need to do well. Really, a team hurting for offense that could cover him defensively would work out better. Like Schultz in Pitts.

  64. jtblack says:

    Ducey,

    “He is going to have to play some defense. Usually that puts a big dent in a lot of players offense” … Good observation .. I think as fans, we get caught chasing box cars sometimes .. and yes, 30 Goals is 30 Goals … but TMac demands 2 way play .. I think that is why some players have struggled with their box cars (Pou, RNH, Ebs); TMac won’t let them cheat for O …

    Only the best players can put up good / great Offensive numbers AND be responsible defenseively ..

  65. Bank Shot says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Benning and Nurse are up next year. I don’t think the Oilers can bring in anyone for more than a year unless they want to move Sekera and can get him to agree. Or one of the young guys is involved in a deal, and then the other will have to wait for either the cap to allow a bigger payday or Sekera to move on.

    I think Sneaky Pete foreshadowed this in referring to needing to provide room for growth for players.

    I wonder if Markov would come to Edmonton for a year?

    He’d be an excellent option for a season.

  66. Rondo says:

    If I’m Anaheim I’m offering Vegas 2018 1st and Theodore or Montour as to stop them taking Manson and Vatanen

    If I’m McPhee I ask Edmonton to counter .

    Or keep Manson on Vegas.

  67. TO10801 says:

    jtblack:
    Ducey,

    “He is going to have to play some defense. Usually that puts a big dent in a lot of players offense” … Good observation .. I think as fans, we get caught chasing box cars sometimes .. and yes, 30 Goals is 30 Goals … but TMac demands 2 way play .. I think that is why some players have struggled with their box cars (Pou, RNH, Ebs); TMac won’t let them cheat for O …

    Only the best players can put up good / great Offensive numbers AND be responsible defenseively ..

    I think it depends on what it would cost to acquire him. You could play him with McDavid and I really don’t think the defense is going to be an issue. And if he doesn’t work out as planned then let him walk next summer. In LT’s trade proposal the key is Dumba, and if Marchessault works out then great, if not you still got your top 4 RHD.

  68. --hudson-- says:

    Scungilli Slushy: His +/- was second worst only to Ekblad, JM’s TOI has him 7th forward on the Panthers, third line usage. 65% of his points were 5v5 which is good, seems like he lost the war though.

    For fun I looked at his game log. In march he had a -6 versus Minnesota. That one game really hurts the overall tally. http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/a/audymjo01/gamelog/2017

    Still an interesting name to discuss, I’d bet Florida wants to keep him

  69. vinotintazo says:

    Diablo:
    Anyone know what exactly Holland was thinking protecting Howard?

    I think Las Vegas takes Fleury (Starter), Rantaa (backup for 1 year, then flip at the deadline), Korpisalo (waiver exempt).

    And take Railey Sheahan (young C) from Det.

  70. gadot10 says:

    GCW_69:
    The centre options for Vegas are poor. If I were GMGM I would be calling the Avs on Duchene and Oilers on Nuge.

    And if I were Chiarelli, I would be asking for a quality depth centre like Nelson and a right defender like Dumba/Vatanen/Manson. If it’s Dumba, no even out likely required. If Vatanen or Manson, maybe. But as we and the Leafs have learned, getting 1Cs and 2Cs is very hard. Avs and Oilers have a chance to leverage this with Vegas likely be defence rich and centre poor to drive an interesting deal.

    They have Shipachev(sp?) already. They can add Sissons out of Nashville. Eakin out of Dallas. Sheehan out of Detroit. Dano out of Winnipeg. Lindberg from the Rangers, Khaira from the Oilers, plus Marcus Kruger from the Blackhawks.

    So they can run Eakin, Shipachev, Kruger, and Sissons down the middle with Khaira and Dano as centres on the wing. Everyone but one, under 26.

  71. misfit says:

    I’ve always seen Nurse as Sekera’s eventual replacement, but it seems a little early for that to be happening. Nurse signing a 2 year bridge deal next offseason and Sekera being moved in the final year of his deal is pretty much how I saw that happening. That seems like the best way for us to have the most competitive and affordable defense over the next 3 years.

    Dallas’ protection list doesn’t leave Vegas with too many options for them, but Hamhuis could be very useful for us as a vet with one year until UFA status. I definitely think we have some assets that would be of more use to Vegas than whatever’s left from the Stars’ available list that wouldn’t kill us to give up.

  72. Oil2Oilers says:

    Kole Lind @ 39 on the Bob Fathers list strikes me a as a trade down opportunity.

  73. Alpine says:

    gadot10: They have Shipachev(sp?) already.They can add Sissons out of Nashville.Eakin out of Dallas. Sheehan out of Detroit.Dano out of Winnipeg.Lindberg from the Rangers, Khaira from the Oilers, plus Marcus Kruger from the Blackhawks.

    So they can run Eakin, Shipachev, Kruger, and Sissons down the middle with Khaira and Dano as centres on the wing.Everyone but one, under 26.

    That’s basically all bottom six guys and an unknown entity from KHL. I would say that’s pretty poor.

  74. Oddspell says:

    Alpine,

    There is E. Staal out of MIN, and Hanzal in UFA, and considering the talent available out of Colorado they might as well take a chance on Soderberg to rebound. I’d say there’s potential for some pretty solid depth.

  75. gadot10 says:

    Diablo:
    Anyone know what exactly Holland was thinking protecting Howard?

    Mrazek couldn’t stop a beachball last year and is being paid $4 miilion, and would have to be qualified at $4 million next year.

    Howard has 2 years left at $5 million something, and was the far better goaltender last year.

    So dollar wise they are about the same. Vegas isn’t going to take Mrazek with Fleury, Pickard and Raanta out there, Raanta and Pickard earning only $1 million.

    Mrazek is far too expensive to be flipped as a backup to another team. And too risky to be considered a starter after last year.

    A team in need of goaltending short term might look at Howard as a potential flip candidate as a starter, since he returned to form and has only two years left on his contract.

  76. gadot10 says:

    Bank Shot: I wonder if Markov would come to Edmonton for a year?

    He’d be an excellent option for a season.

    Hainsey is a good stop gap option for Sekera.

  77. N64 says:

    JDI:
    Chris Johnston‏Verified account @reporterchris


    George McPhee has told NHL teams that today is the last day they’ll complete a trade to protect their players.

    LOL. Exactly why I cautioned OP yesterday not to read too much into GM² sales statements. The process is for him and he’s going to focus on the current sales message. He can have official register deals in the value while he talks publicly about how no deals get done until every bid is in. Then he can talk publicly about all deals being done today while taking bids today and keeping the auction going wherever he sees fit.

  78. N64 says:

    Rondo:
    If I’m Anaheim I’m offering Vegas2018 1st and Theodore or Montouras to stop them taking Manson and Vatanen

    If I’m McPhee I ask Edmontonto counter .

    Or keep Manson on Vegas.

    The fun in all of this is that Manson may already be protected in a registered deal.

  79. Diablo says:

    N64: The fun in all of this is that Manson may already be protected in a registered deal.

    Exactly

  80. J-Bo says:

    LT, I think you are going to be sorely disappointed with the summer and not post your “balance”photo. If your expectation is a new 2nd pair (until Sekera returns) that doesn’t include Nurse or Benning next year you will be disapointed. I think they will sign Russell or trade for one D that can play top 4. Then they will move up Benning or Nurse until Sekera comes back and sign a third pair guy that can move to 7/8D when Sekera returns. They may trade later in the year (closer to the deadline) for another D if needed, but not in the summer. The most likely D that I see looks like this:

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Russell – Benning
    Nurse – New Guy
    Gryba/Reinhart

    If they don’t sign Russell then it could be a Brian Campbell type as a stop gap. I like what you are hoping for but I don’t think it is in the cards.

  81. Brantford Boy says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Kole Lind @ 39 on the Bob Fathers list strikes me a as a trade down opportunity.

    I was thinking something similar… he’s either in or out of the top 30 depending on what source you look at… after reading Button’s comments and rated scouting reports, I still like Jonah Gadjovich as my top choice followed by Conor Timmins (almost exclusively in the top 30), honorable mention to
    Isaac Ratcliffe but I’m not liking the report on Robert Thomas.

  82. N64 says:

    Stauffer speculating that Vegas is in on Foo and will pick Davidson.
    Also speculating that Vegas will try to parlay first rounders into 1OV.

  83. JDI says:

    Stauffer is suggesting that Vegas using assets acquired in expansion to move up the draft and make a move for Patrick in entry. Former Wheat King GM now with the Knights.

  84. frjohnk says:

    Id sign Russell for a few reasons. *sorry* this is a bit longer than I had wanted.

    1. Sekera is out for at least half a season and even with a few nice D prospects, they are nowhere near ready, we still need actual NHL Dmen, Russell is one.

    2. Even though his corsi numbers were the worst out of the Oiler D, we have to remember two things
    A) he played on the right side and we know that Dmen who play on their wrong side can have their corsi numbers move down as much as 6 % points.
    B) One of Russells best talents is shot blocking and corsi does not account for this, so using fenwick and shots should be used in the equation when looking at Russell.

    CF%
    46.44
    FF%
    49.1
    SF%
    49.73

    And when we did deeper and look at just the against metrics, this is how Russell ranks on the Oilers.

    Player CA/60
    Matthew Benning 50.37
    Eric Gryba 53.42
    Darnell Nurse 54.18
    Oscar Klefbom 55.29
    Andrej Sekera 55.71
    Adam Larsson 56.24
    Kris Russell 58.15

    Above we see that Russell allows the most shot attempts per 60 out of the regular D from last year. But if we look at fenwick and shots against, we get this

    Player FA/60
    Matthew Benning 37.59
    Andrej Sekera 37.71
    Kris Russell 38.93
    Oscar Klefbom 40.22
    Eric Gryba 40.22
    Adam Larsson 41.15
    Darnell Nurse 42.03

    Player SA/60
    Kris Russell 27.41
    Andrej Sekera 27.49
    Matthew Benning 27.5
    Oscar Klefbom 28.92
    Adam Larsson 29.19
    Eric Gryba 31.35
    Darnell Nurse 32.25

    Using fenwick and shots against we see that Russell is near or at the top.

    3. While he allowed the most clean zone entries against per 60 for the 7 Oiler D in these lists, ( the gap between all our D was not much) he might be our best positionally sound D man in our zone. So much so that I would say he was probably our best defensive Dman last year in around our slot. Opponents may have spent more time in our zone when Russell was on the ice as compared to the other D, but those opponents did not get many shots away from the slot when he was on the ice, so that has to definitely count for something. Well, in my comic book it does.

    Player HDCA/60
    Matthew Benning 9.89
    Andrej Sekera 10.74
    Kris Russell 11.02
    Eric Gryba 11.65
    Oscar Klefbom 11.95
    Adam Larsson 12.14
    Darnell Nurse 12.61

    Player HDGA/60
    Kris Russell 1.01
    Eric Gryba 1.03
    Andrej Sekera 1.11
    Adam Larsson 1.52
    Oscar Klefbom 1.55
    Matthew Benning 1.61
    Darnell Nurse 1.83

    OK Padre, so Russell is one of our best defensive Dmen, but when he is on the ice, offense goes to die!!! Why would we saddle the best offensive player in the league with a player who is kypronite for offense?

    4. I dont believe offense goes to die as much as many believe when Russell is on the ice.

    At first glance we see that
    McDavid with Russell 2.48 pts per 60. 48.7% CF%.
    McDavid without Russell 3.07 pts per 60. 54.8% CF%.

    And while McDavid and Russell had a GF per 60 of 3.21, Russell away from McDavid had a GF per 60 of 1.43.

    Overall, Russell had a GF/60 of 2.01.

    Woof!

    But, BUT there is a caveat here. When I was looking at the some of the Dmen this year, Larsson had a crazy high GF/60 of 3.04 and I wondered how that was as only a handful of Dmen in the league were over 3. Larsson and Russell move the puck about the same and they played against same competition and pretty much same top 6 forwards, so why such a descrepancy? Was it because of all the Russell Resets TM? Was it because of all the easy zone entries that Russell allows? Maybe that has something to do with it, but is there something else?

    Now anybody that has followed Tyler Dellow will know he brings some interesting stats out. One of them was Dmen who got a plus or minus within 5 seconds of stepping on the ice. Larsson was second in the league with a +14 goals for when stepping on the ice within 5 seconds of the goal scored by his team With Larsson and Russell both playing the right side, some of these “5 second goals” would have had Russell changing with Larsson and Larsson getting the credit. If we say that half of the goals +7 were Russells, his goals for per 60 goes from 2.01 to 2.37, which is decent and really not far away from his last 4 years prior.

    Russells goals for per 60 over the last 3 years prior to this past year.
    2015-16 2.65
    2014-15 2.95
    2013-14 2.29

    While his 2014-15 goals for number was due to an “unsustainable on ice shooting%”, his overall goals for number over those 4 years suggests a player where “offense does not die”. Id expect his goals for numbers to increase this coming year

    I think this is one example in where the on ice stats fail and where stats not unlike what Staples does (contributions to scoring chances, etc) kind of fills in the gaps. If a team only uses one of these kind of stats, they will be prone to missing some part of the picture.

    I know the Oilers use some on ice stats and use some scoring chance data not unlike what Staples uses. And I believe the equations they were getting were showing that the Oilers had 4 top 4 Dmen and we just have to look at TOI to figure that out.

    Oscar Klefbom 22.34
    Andrej Sekera 21.46
    Kris Russell 21.2
    Adam Larsson 20.13

    Now I do believe that Sekera carried Russell somewhat but if Russell were to play on his left side with a decent 2nd pairing right shot Dmen I think they would have decent results.

    I think if the Oilers ran
    Klefbom- Larsson
    Russell- 2RD
    Nurse-Benning

    until Sekera was healthy, the Oilers would have a below average to average first pairing and two pairs of “between 2nd pair/3rd pair”.

    Now maybe Nurse and Benning surprise and are ready for 2nd pairing duty and you have Russell and GUY UNKNOWN on your 3rd pair which would be fantastic as it would give the Oilers a decent top 6 even with Sekera out.

    I wouldn’t sign Russell to a 4 year $4M dollar contract, because at least 1 of, if not both, Nurse and Benning will most likely enter 2nd pair territory in the next year or so if all goes well. In that case, Russell would be placed in the 3rd pairing within that time frame. Id sign him for 2 years for around 3.5M to 4M. But I would suspect there are other teams willing to give him more than 2 years.

    Russell going somewhere else is not a bad thing, but the Oilers need to find 2 Dmen who can play a significant amount of minutes and not get buried.

    How easy is that going to be?

  85. JDI says:

    N64,

    shakes fist!

  86. Professor Q says:

    JDI:
    Stauffer is suggesting that Vegas using assets acquired in expansion to move up the draft and make a move for Patrick in entry. Former Wheat King GM now with the Knights.

    It’d be Oilers luck if that improves New Jersey enough to get them a Cup.

    Schultz and Hall, among others. Aya.

  87. JDI says:

    Professor Q: It’d be Oilers luck if that improves New Jersey enough to get them a Cup.

    Well he would be attempting to ‘buy’ picks at their most expensive time, but NJ has a long way to go to be in Cup discussions.

    I can’t see Vegas having much pull in swaying Foo to sign there, other than, “Sure, but it’s a dry heat.”

  88. JDI says:

    Scott Cullen‏Verified account @tsnscottcullen

    Sounds like Vegas is dealing ahead of the expansion draft. Have heard there are at least seven teams with side deals.

  89. Brantford Boy says:

    On a completely other note… I see EA Sports is waiting for the NHL Awards to release the cover player for the upcoming season… looks like McDavid will be up on the stage 3 times… like really, he came second in votes last year and they muffed it, its a no brainer this year…

  90. N64 says:

    JDI:
    Scott Cullen‏Verified account @tsnscottcullen


    Sounds like Vegas is dealing ahead of the expansion draft. Have heard there are at least seven teams with side deals.

    Yeah. No one including GM² is using precise language. No Side Deals this year. Just registered unpublished deals and potential deals. Would not be surprised if he has or will have 7 actual deals today.

  91. Professor Q says:

    Brantford Boy:
    On a completely other note… I see EA Sports is waiting for the NHL Awards to release the cover player for the upcoming season… looks like McDavid will be up on the stage 3 times… like really, he came second in votes last year and they muffed it, its a no brainer this year…

    Do you really think they’d let us get that?

    They’re already pushing it by letting McDavid be nominated…

  92. jonrmcleod says:

    Based on Stauffer’s questions today, looks like the Oilers might be considering trading their first to LV for Dumba and trading Eberle to NYI in a deal involving Strome and maybe NYI’s first.

  93. JDI says:

    N64: No Side Deals this year.

    What do you mean by that? Because that’s exactly what is going on.

  94. krakman says:

    This has probably been discussed but why didn’t Anaheim ask Bieksa to waive his no trade clause? Now they have to give something to LV not to take Manson and they still lose Vatanen.

  95. TO10801 says:

    krakman:
    This has probably been discussed but why didn’t Anaheim ask Bieksa to waive his no trade clause? Now they have to give something to LV not to take Manson and they still lose Vatanen.

    It will be interesting to see what ANA gives up. Can you imagine paying a 1st AND Vatanen to get Manson, except that Manson is already your asset?

  96. --hudson-- says:

    krakman:
    This has probably been discussed but why didn’t Anaheim ask Bieksa to waive his no trade clause? Now they have to give something to LV not to take Manson and they still lose Vatanen.

    The rumor is that it’s Shea Theodore and a sweetener going to VGK. I could see how VGK would prefer Theodore over Vatanen especially if he is waiver eligible next year.

  97. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk,

    – this is good stuff! Russell is really good over a number of years on the “not letting goals against” part of being a D. Different stats anyone can pull , but really he was 41st in league last three years (3,500 mins min.), with a GA of 147: this is Ceci Cody, Savard, Dougie Hamilton, Jeff Petry range.

    – I know I shouldn’t use just one stat, but at the end of the day, preventing goals is the #1 job of D: and he’s certainly not terrible at it last three years

    – If he can get 3 years @ $4MM elsewhere, he should take it, but I’d be happy @ 2x$4MM. It’s a prudent thing to do IMO.

  98. N64 says:

    JDI: What do you mean by that? Because that’s exactly what is going on.

    Defined that in the following line. That’s a catch all that could mean a registered unpublished deal or just an understanding that will become a deal or vanish on Wed. Fine to use in reporting but just a caution that it does not say which.

    In prior expansions it also could have meant a verbal deal for unregistered future considerations. Illegal option this time.

    update: Stauffer just now saying some reporters same many side deals in place. Other say none. Again the term is part of the confusion. Not that their is any transparency, but at least they have to do trade calls this year for their protection deals.

  99. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – It’s also inaccurate to claim that offense dies when he plays. Amongst 3,500 min +D last 3 years, he was on the ice for 165 GF: 19th: in the range of Nick Leddy, Duncan Keith, Shultz (gulp!)

  100. TO10801 says:

    Stauffer really pumping the Dumba trade idea and also that it would mean passing on Russel.

  101. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    frjohnk,

    – this is good stuff!Russell is really good over a number of years on the “not letting goals against” part of being a D.Different stats anyone can pull , but really he was 41st in league last three years (3,500 mins min.), with a GA of 147: this is Ceci Cody, Savard, Dougie Hamilton, Jeff Petry range.

    – I know I shouldn’t use just one stat, but at the end of the day, preventing goals is the #1 job of D: and he’s certainly not terrible at it last three years

    – If he can get 3 years @ $4MM elsewhere, he should take it, but I’d be happy @ 2x$4MM.It’s a prudent thing to do IMO.

    It all depends on movement clauses. They have to sign Nurse, Benning, Caggiula, Slepy and Fayne next year. Even if Chia wants to acquire something will have to give

  102. Diablo says:

    TO10801:
    Stauffer really pumping the Dumba trade idea and also that it would mean passing on Russel.

    I’d be very happy with that.

  103. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    frjohnk,

    – this is good stuff!Russell is really good over a number of years on the “not letting goals against” part of being a D.Different stats anyone can pull , but really he was 41st in league last three years (3,500 mins min.), with a GA of 147: this is Ceci Cody, Savard, Dougie Hamilton, Jeff Petry range.

    – I know I shouldn’t use just one stat, but at the end of the day, preventing goals is the #1 job of D: and he’s certainly not terrible at it last three years

    – If he can get 3 years @ $4MM elsewhere, he should take it, but I’d be happy @ 2x$4MM.It’s a prudent thing to do IMO.

    Im not a big fan of using goals against ( Id rather look at shots, scoring chances, expected goals against, DFA) when looking at Dmen but if I am using goals against, I always use per 60 to see how someone does with their peers.

    Over the last 3 years, Russell is 79th in GA/60 ( over 3000 mins) with 2.29. His GF/60 is 2.57, so his GF% is 52.9%, which is very good.

    Here are two stats with wild swings.

    Russell this year had a GOALS AGAINST PER 60 that was 7th best for Dmen in the league with more than 1000 minutes.

    In 2014-15, Russell had the 7th best GOALS FOR PER 60 for Dmen in the league with more than 1000 minutes.

    You just never know what your gonna get with the Russell Reset TM!!!

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Based on Stauffer’s questions today, looks like the Oilers might be considering trading their first to LV for Dumba and trading Eberle to NYI in a deal involving Strome and maybe NYI’s first.

    I could see it but if Schultz and Petry get a weak return I rail at the thought of a first for Mr. Dumba whom is not worth that much. I think Benning will be eating his lunch soon enough.

  105. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: It’s also inaccurate to claim that offense dies when he plays

    Yup, I agree.
    Russell goals for per 60
    2016-17 2.04
    2015-16 2.65
    2014-15 2.95
    2013-14 2.29

    This past year looks to be an anomaly, not unlike 2014-15. And I do think part of it is that Larsson stole some of Russells on ice goals for 🙂

  106. TO10801 says:

    Diablo: I’d be very happy with that.

    Probably means you can hold onto Eberle for another year as well.

  107. TO10801 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I could see it but if Schultz and Petry get a weak return I rail at the thought of a first for Mr. Dumba whom is not worth that much. I think Benning will be eating his lunch soon enough.

    I don’t know if Benning will pass Dumba. They are the same age, so neither is likely to improve that much more. Even if Benning did pass him, a right side of Dumba, benning and Larsson for the next 4 years looks good to me.

  108. GCW_69 says:

    gadot10: They have Shipachev(sp?) already.They can add Sissons out of Nashville.Eakin out of Dallas. Sheehan out of Detroit.Dano out of Winnipeg.Lindberg from the Rangers, Khaira from the Oilers, plus Marcus Kruger from the Blackhawks.

    So they can run Eakin, Shipachev, Kruger, and Sissons down the middle with Khaira and Dano as centres on the wing.Everyone but one, under 26.

    None of them, but except Shipashev maybe, should be playing above the 3rd line. It’s one thing to have centre’s, and another to have top six centres.

  109. Ducey says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Based on Stauffer’s questions today, looks like the Oilers might be considering trading their first to LV for Dumba and trading Eberle to NYI in a deal involving Strome and maybe NYI’s first.

    Two problems on the NYI side.

    1) They are supposedly one of the teams that gave up a first for LV to lay off their forwards
    2) Ryan Strome. He sucks.

    I’d be happier with Brock Nelson and a second for Eberle and a third or fourth rounder.

  110. TheFinn60 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!

    – Looking at next year: Sek = key.Sek in the line-up: this team was a Stanley Cup team contender

    – Assume they sign Russell and slot Griff at #3LHD, you have some combo of Nurse/Benning/Russel/Griff as the bottom -2 pairings.

    – So the path of least resistance is another UFA on a show me contract: Kulikov, Polack, DelZotto, Franson: get guys who sign for 2 years max

    – This way you have multiple options (5 guys for 4 D spots, plus Fayne/Gryba), you can wait for Sek to come back, you can make another trade at deadline if need be.

    – Beaulieu cost only a 3rd rounder: there will be players we can get who have established levels of NHL play without breaking the bank.

    Agree a great post and a good baseline for a “thinking outside the box” approch. I think it’s a bit steep of a trade thou but LV will need to get something attractive and for sure JP fills that need of the trade.

    JP is still young and had a bit of a hard time to get around the first year and lost a lot of confidence at the end. The Worlds did not help the cause either. His offence will come back but when is the question and can Oilers wait for it??

    Maybe stick with JP and try something like Ebs for Demers, offer them Pouliot (with Oil keeping 2 million of his contract) and one of the 3rd picks to get Strome, if he is available from LV, a bit of a risk as he has not put up to great numbers but he will not cost a bomb. Then go after Eveas or Vrbata in free agency and offer 1-2 year, do not sign Russell, give up on that and get Fransson in as a “rental” for a year or two or trade him when Sekera is back for something up front as that’s where they will need more production.

    Just a thought, have not worked the Cap numbers thou as Eaves will not come for any 1,5 million. demers is at 4,5 I think. Franson will not be cheap as a short team rental but can be offloaded if need be.

    The back end is not weak as is but up front something has to happen rather pronto if they want to win this year, window is not that great. Marleau would be great to have but to expensive.

  111. Barcs says:

    Apropos of nothing, but I’m a brand new resident of Edmonton and I can’t wait to check out all of the festivals LT mentioned above.

    I’ve been making notes on many of the recommendations posted in past threads, as well. Exciting!

  112. N64 says:

    JDI:
    N64,

    Side deals are legit this time round.

    http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/golden-knights-expansion-draft-explainer-1.4160845

    Not you but Side Deals has been thrown this week about to refer to real deals and open offers.
    Last expansion Side Deals meant exactly one thing. A verbal agreement on the side. As in off book.

    So yeah. I was trying to say none of those old verbals this time. No ambiguity. Deal or no deal. And reporters are saying side deal to refer to deals and non-deals.

  113. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk,

    – The reason that /60 is used, is to smooth out short time periods, and normalize things

    – But over long periods of time, and extensive usage, at the end of the day, preventing goals matters.

    – So I chose 3 years and min. 3,500 minutes: long enough for the smoothing of a /60, but not so long that you can say: “well he’s better/worse”.

    – So I’m not claiming he’s a top-pairing D when he’s 41st over the last 3 years in preventing actual goals against, compared to all his peers that play big minutes.

    – But at some point, actual results matter. He’s pretty good vs. his peers at actually preventing goals when looking at a body of work that is not parsed by a /60.

    – He’s a neat subject for stats actually

    – On a super-small scale, its the same conversation of say an Eberle: his scoring in the playoffs was really poor. How large a sample size is required in order to determine if a player is effective in playoffs? Certainly not 2 rounds of hockey, but at some point, actual results matter

  114. Diablo says:

    Ducey: Two problems on the NYI side.

    1) They are supposedly one of the teams that gave up a first for LV to lay off their forwards
    2) Ryan Strome. He sucks.

    I’d be happier with Brock Nelson and a second for Eberle and a third or fourth rounder.

    We don’t know what Snow has promised LV – it could be one of their prospects like Barzal, Ho-Sang or Dal Collie. Getting 15th overall would be fantastic – it would give us a shot at one of Tippett or Liljgren if they fall.

    You could flip Strome to Arizona for Rieder, who would be a terrific fit with Leon on the 2nd line.

  115. GCW_69 says:

    Diablo: I don’t know that I’d classify their C options as ‘poor’
    – Cody Eakin
    – Riley Sheahan
    – Jonathan Marchessault
    – Eric Staal (still has 2 years on his deal at very reasonable money)
    – Brock Nelson
    – Ryan Strome
    – Casey Czikas
    – Jori Lehtera

    RNH is a more attractive option than all of them. The NYI centres may be off-limits depending on the deal that Snow has negotiated, but LV should still be able to assemble a decent group of centres.

    Staal is the only legit 1C on the list and he is 33 in the fall. Do you take him or take Dumba or Scandella and flip him for a younger centre?

    Pretty sure Marchessault played wing this year, despite what NHL.com might say.

    I know what I would do in his place given the quality of defenders available.

  116. N64 says:

    Ducey: Two problems on the NYI side.

    1) They are supposedly one of the teams that gave up a first for LV to lay off their forwards
    2) Ryan Strome. He sucks.

    I’d be happier with Brock Nelson and a second for Eberle and a third or fourth rounder.

    Nelson is APPARENTLY protected. See #1.
    de Haan is the price. See #2.

  117. N64 says:

    Diablo: Barzal

    Barzal to keep de Haan. That would be priceless. Then we can all track Reinhart vs. deHaan.

  118. misfit says:

    I still don’t think Dumba is really worth the costs that have been talked about. He’s not even the defenseman the Wild left unprotected that I’d be interested in if I was Vegas. I much prefer Scandella to Dumba, though he’s clearly not as good a fit for us.

    Dumba is a little overrated IMO. His minutes in MIN aren’t 1st pairing or even 2nd pairing as far as quality goes. Which means as an Oilers, he’d either be playing above his established level or forcing Benning to play tougher minutes. He’s not even the 2nd highest scoring defenseman on his team (nor would he have been on ours). When Sekera is back, he’d have a terrific partner to help him out, but until then, he’d be relied upon to carry the 2nd pairing. I’m not sure he’s up to the task.

    His 16 PP points and 43rd place finish among NHL defensive scoring would be welcome, but how much does the loss of a Nugent-Hopkins or Jordan Eberle set us back in relation?

    Don’t get me wrong, I’d trade our 2017 1st round pick for him all day long, and could probably live with Eberle too. But for RNH? I think I pass.

  119. Professor Q says:

    GCW_69: Staal is the only legit 1C on the list and he is 33 in the fall. Do you take him or take Dumba or Scandella and flip him for a younger centre?

    Pretty sure Marchessault played wing this year, despite what NHL.com might say.

    I know what I would do in his place given the quality of defenders available.

    Yeah, it was weird seeing multiple people state that he’s a C. Definitely was a W call-up.

  120. Jaxon says:

    Targets:
    Trades for young, fast 1st Line players that shoot a lot and score:
    Evander Kane – Boone Jenner – Brendan Gallagher
    UFA Top 6 Veterans who shoot a lot:
    Patrick Marleau – Martin Hanzal – Patrick Eaves
    Trades for fast 3rd Line players that shoot a lot:
    Magnus Paajarvi – Andreas Athanasiou – Michael Grabner

  121. TO10801 says:

    misfit:
    I still don’t think Dumba is really worth the costs that have been talked about.He’s not even the defenseman the Wild left unprotected that I’d be interested in if I was Vegas.I much prefer Scandella to Dumba, though he’s clearly not as good a fit for us.

    Dumba is a little overrated IMO.His minutes in MIN aren’t 1st pairing or even 2nd pairing as far as quality goes.Which means as an Oilers, he’d either be playing above his established level or forcing Benning to play tougher minutes.He’s not even the 2nd highest scoring defenseman on his team (nor would he have been on ours).When Sekera is back, he’d have a terrific partner to help him out, but until then, he’d be relied upon to carry the 2nd pairing.I’m not sure he’s up to the task.

    His 16 PP points and 43rd place finish among NHL defensive scoring would be welcome, but how much does the loss of a Nugent-Hopkins or Jordan Eberle set us back in relation?

    Don’t get me wrong, I’d trade our 2017 1st round pick for him all day long, and could probably live with Eberle too.But for RNH?I think I pass.

    Agreed. There is no way I would do RNH for Dumba.

  122. Jaxon says:

    Have we given up on the dream of targeting Justin Faulk as a top 4 right-hander?

  123. Professor Q says:

    misfit,

    I didn’t see the Nuge suggestions. Definitely not worth it if Nuge was offered for Jones. Jones is much higher value than Dumba.

    Not even for Eberle.

    1st? Yes. Absolutely.

    He’s similar to Ellis, non?

  124. Scungilli Slushy says:

    TO10801: I don’t know if Benning will pass Dumba. They are the same age, so neither is likely to improve that much more. Even if Benning did pass him, a right side of Dumba, benning and Larsson for the next 4 years looks good to me.

    I say that because it is the stability of play to me that separates players. Dumba has had more offense on a more mature team, but Benning already has moved further past chaos than Dumba.

    Benning has shown puck acumen and can shoot. I’m not sure Dumba outplays Benning overall even next season on the Oilers, and his contract will block Benning. Dumba had the highest % of points from PP on the Wild, meaning I don’t see a large offensive gap in the heart of the game either. I guess I think not enough of a difference for the cost. They need a short term vet stop gap.

    Another thing that has occurred to me is that we are all envious of the Duck’s D. They ran a very young group who made plenty of mistakes as I saw it. We’d have been all over Montour and Manson, and even Lindholm lost the plot a few times that I saw.

    Maybe we should allow our guys – the quality young guys like Nurse and Benning, I don’t mean unproven Reinhart or Mantha – the same chance that the Duck’s youth had. It would be second pair so a promotion but not a call to charge over the top like Schultz got, and should have support such as Hainsey and vets like that who can step up a pair and play decently from time to time if somebody gets the yips.

    I would love to load up for a Cup run but the cap is a real thing, acquisitions can be too costly or not there, these things dictate what happens as opposed to what’s ideal, a lot.

  125. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon:
    Have we given up on the dream of targeting Justin Faulk as a top 4 right-hander?

    It puts the Oilers D at the top of the league in cost when you have to resign Nurse and Benning in a year. Salary on the D would have to move, unless Nurse and Benning are going to sign under 1.5M or even less. Maybe they would?

    If they are close to second pair which I think they are, there is a salary problem. Faulk has 3 years left at 4.8M.

  126. Barcs says:

    Seeing Hanzal as LT’s #1 forward target, I have a question for the group:

    Say Hanzal plays 60-70 games next year and scores 30-40 points, which are both roughly within his career averages.

    What would you be willing to pay in free agency for that?

    I wouldn’t go beyond 4.5M x 5 years at the MAX, and I’m still pretty uncomfortable with that. Could see some team giving 5M x 5.

    Hanzal will turn 31 in February, btw.

  127. Jaxon says:

    Scungilli Slushy: It puts the Oilers D at the top of the league in cost when you have to resign Nurse and Benning in a year. Salary on the D would have to move, unless Nurse and Benning are going to sign under 1.5M or even less. Maybe they would?

    If they are close to second pair which I think they are, there is a salary problem. Faulk has 3 years left at 4.8M.

    I think 4.8 is a bargain for Faulk. Trading Sekera in the summer of 2019 as soon as his Modified NMC kicks in would be a better place to save money.

  128. rickithebear says:

    it takes +.15 Goal dif to have a chance at a wild card spot.
    last 2 seasons:
    J. faulk
    .79 EVP/60 that is like #411 Fwd 411/30 = 13.7 (#14 fwd)
    Press box offence.
    when has press box offence been a difrence maker.

    2.73 EVGA/60 + .15 = 2.85 EVGA/60

    Can the oilers field a line that has achance of outscoring That Defence.?
    Mcdavid 3.47 EVGF60
    Draisatl 2.85
    Lucic 2.75
    that lines avg is 3.02 EVGF60
    a line that will likely cost 23.5M in 2 years
    will barely be able to outscore that defence.
    there are 30 fwds that generate 2.85 + EVGF60

  129. Brantford Boy says:

    Barcs:
    Seeing Hanzal as LT’s #1 forward target, I have a question for the group:

    Say Hanzal plays 60-70 games next year and scores 30-40 points, which are both roughly within his career averages.

    What would you be willing to pay in free agency for that?

    I wouldn’t go beyond 4.5M x 5 years at the MAX, and I’m still pretty uncomfortable with that. Could see some team giving 5M x 5.

    Hanzal will turn 31 in February, btw.

    I would not be willing to pay what he wants… full stop.

  130. classict says:

    frjohnk: Im not a big fan of using goals against ( Id rather look at shots, scoring chances, expected goals against, DFA) when looking at Dmen but if I am using goals against, I always use per 60 to see how someone does with their peers.

    Over the last 3 years, Russell is 79th in GA/60 ( over 3000 mins) with 2.29.His GF/60 is 2.57, so his GF% is 52.9%, which is very good.

    Here are two stats with wild swings.

    Russell this year had a GOALS AGAINST PER 60 that was 7th best for Dmen in the league with more than 1000 minutes.

    In 2014-15, Russell had the 7th best GOALS FOR PER 60 for Dmen in the league with more than 1000 minutes.

    You just never know what your gonna get with the Russell Reset TM!!!

    Doesn’t this just scream it’s something he’s not controlling…

    Wild SV% and SH% swings seemingly at random generally means the player isn’t controlling them (and dmen generally control neither of those things). Neither of those have been repeatable for him.

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon: I think 4.8 is a bargain for Faulk. Trading Sekera in the summer of 2019 as soon as his Modified NMC kicks in would be a better place to save money.

    The cap crunch comes next year, they don’t have timing on their side, although Faulk doesn’t have movement clauses it seems. One and done? Lots of good D UFA’s coming on the market to lower his return as well.

  132. Diablo says:

    GCW_69,

    I guess it depends on the balance of transactions that McPhee has available to him. If no one is offering a legit 1st line centre, and the return or Dumba is just a 2017 first, I’d pick Staal, play him heavily sheltered minutes, and then flip him at this years deadline or next for a lot more than a first.

  133. gadot10 says:

    Some people seem to be forgetting the fact that the Oilers would not be paying for the last four years of Russell, the peak years of his career, but the NEXT FOUR YEARS, the declining years of his career.

    Another small competitive D was a decent #4-#5 with the Bruins, but MacT didn’t buy those four years, he bought those four years starting at 32.

    Russell is 30, but he already has chronic groin injuries. He is not an elite defensemen that has a lot of margin for decline. As with Ference, Russell’s margin for competence vs. not-good-enough is small.

    The rosters lists of NHL teams are littered with buyouts of retirement contracts to 30-something defensemen.

  134. Rocknrolla says:

    Barcs:
    Apropos of nothing, but I’m a brand new resident of Edmonton and I can’t wait to check out all of the festivals LT mentioned above.

    I’ve been making notes on many of the recommendations posted in past threads, as well. Exciting!

    Barcos,

    Check out interstellar rodeo, smaller folk music fest at heritage amphitheatre. My fav…and get tickets to the secret wine party after on Saturday night.

    Also would recommend some of the kdays shows. They are free with admission and have some big acts this year.

    If you haven’t been to big valley in camrose it’s worth a try too although it’s same weekend as heritage days. Mega country festival. Even pop down for a day pass on one of the days.

    Hope you enjoy…summer in Edmonton is incredible!

  135. Scungilli Slushy says:

    gadot10:
    Some people seem to be forgetting the fact that the Oilers would not be paying for the last four years of Russell, the peak years of his career, but the NEXT FOUR YEARS, the declining years of his career.

    Another small competitive D was a decent #4-#5 with the Bruins, but MacT didn’t buy those four years, he bought those four years starting at 32.

    Russell is 30, but he already has chronic groin injuries.He is not an elite defensemen that has a lot of margin for decline.As with Ference, Russell’s margin for competence vs. not-good-enough is small.

    The rosters lists of NHL teams are littered with buyouts of retirement contracts to 30-something defensemen.

    And the older player with term is already signed on D in Sekera. Chiarelli said he didn’t ‘plan’ on any big moves. I think he’s told us what is happening, which is a salary dump if he can and he doesn’t want salary back, so likely an exchange of established quality for cap.

    Now watch him sign Russell to 4, trade Nuge and Pouliot for Staal, and trade Eberle and Fayne for Demers and McKenzie.

  136. Barcs says:

    Rocknrolla,

    Thank you! 😀

  137. Barcs says:

    Brantford Boy: I would not be willing to pay what he wants… full stop.

    Just curious what makes you say that?

    Wouldn’t be my first choice either, but I can certainly see Chiarelli going after him.

  138. McSorley33 says:

    gadot10,

    So they can run Eakin, Shipachev, Kruger, and Sissons down the middle with Khaira and Dano as centres on the wing. Everyone but one, under 26.
    *******************************************************************************************
    All of those C’s are 3rd line or worse……save for the unknown Shipachev.

  139. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Jets UFA Postma might be an interesting low cost option at 2/3 RD.

    https://www.arcticicehockey.com/2017/5/9/15587204/season-review-2017-paul-postma-winnipeg-jets-he-is-average-at-best-i-guess

    Seems he can skate and the puck stays around when he’s on. Turning 29, not a banger. I think the puck thing trumps Gryba’s awesome hitting. Woodguy probably hates him and thinks he’s a left shot.

  140. JDI says:

    McSorley33,

    Chipsahoy might be pretty good. Four years SKA with some impressive numbers, but it’s impossible to know if he’s going to Radulov or Belov on this side of the pond.

  141. Ducey says:

    gadot10:
    Some people seem to be forgetting the fact that the Oilers would not be paying for the last four years of Russell, the peak years of his career, but the NEXT FOUR YEARS, the declining years of his career.

    Another small competitive D was a decent #4-#5 with the Bruins, but MacT didn’t buy those four years, he bought those four years starting at 32.

    Russell is 30, but he already has chronic groin injuries.He is not an elite defensemen that has a lot of margin for decline.As with Ference, Russell’s margin for competence vs. not-good-enough is small.

    The rosters lists of NHL teams are littered with buyouts of retirement contracts to 30-something defensemen.

    Not really a fair comparison.

    Ference was signed to play #1 LD on a terrible team. It did not work out well. His first year they had Petry, Schultz in his first full year, Belov, Potter, Marincin, Nick Schultz, 17 games from Klefbom, and 17 games of Ladi Smid. And Eakins was swarming. You of all people should know this. Next year was not any better.

    Russell has already worked out fine, skates well, and will have plenty of shelter. He can play 2 years and then you trade him. There is always a demand for vet Dmen on reasonable deals. If Chia gets a 3rd rounder for him, great, he will give enough cover for Benning and Bear to develop, without giving up a first rounder/ other asset.

    As much as Dumba might be a fit this year, he is likely to make more than $4 M a season beginning next year at the same time Nurse and Benning will want raises.

    Is Dumba that much better than Russell that its worth giving up a first rounder this year? I don’t think so.

  142. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bank Shot: I wonder if Markov would come to Edmonton for a year?

    He’d be an excellent option for a season.

    I think he would be if he’s jobless. Also doesn’t call for a deal with term, played a lot and got points including PP. He was hurt a fair bit last year. A chance with McDavid might reel him in, The Habs aren’t winning next year.

    Although, moving Beaulieu means they are short left side. Bergeron is trying to win Barber GM east, buzzing off sideburns, a clipper in each hand. It’s as clear as poutine.

  143. gadot10 says:

    I’m trying to save #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach from himself on Russell. #EvenBylsmaWonACupWithCrosby but sign Russell for 4 x $4 million and McLellan is going to make Boudreau and Trotz very happy men.

    Russell will be impacting the last year of McDavid’s entry level, and the first three years of his 5 x $9.7 million dollar deal. 60% of McDavid’s next contract, 80% if there is a lockout, and no cup in eight years means McDavid is probably looking for greener pastures.

  144. misfit says:

    There’s been a lot of talk about the Dumba/Vatanen/Mansons of the world, but there’s a pretty good young RH defenseman that Buffalo left exposed.

    He’s north of $5M, and hasn’t played a full season since the lockout, but I’ve always liked Bogosian, and he seemed to do pretty well in a 2nd pairing role last year, at least relative to his defensive counterparts on that team.

    Buffalo choosing to protect a player the just picked up the day of the deadline is a little telling, but they didn’t leave much else for Vegas to chose from. Either in a trade with the GKs or with the Sabres, he might be a guy that shakes loose, and he could also come with some salary retention.

  145. gadot10 says:

    Hainsey is the best option for a Sekera replacement, and he sort of doubles as a Russell replacement also, because Hainsey can play the right side also.

    If one cannot get Hamonic or Faulk or Dumba, get Hainsey and Streit on one year deals, like Pittsburgh did at the deadline.

  146. Jaxon says:

    Scungilli Slushy: The cap crunch comes next year, they don’t have timing on their side, although Faulk doesn’t have movement clauses it seems. One and done? Lots of good D UFA’s coming on the market to lower his return as well.

    I believe they may be getting rid of Pouliot, 1 of Eberle &/or Nugent-Hopkins & Fayne this summer ($3.625M to $10M to $13.625M in savings this summer, maybe even $19.625M). Letestu and Maroon might be gone by next summer (2018) for another $1.8M to $3.3M. And I could see Sekera getting traded the following season (summer of 2019) for a savings of $5.5M. There could be $28.5M worth of big contracts coming off the books before the 2019-2020 season. A bargain top pair D (Faulk) for the next 3 years is a bargain that helps your cap situation, not hurts it. Do you think they can get a top 4 RHD on the free agent market for less than $4.8M.

    EDIT: only 3 RHD on a UFA contract are making less and playing more minutes per game than Faulk’s 23:08:
    TJ Brodie gets $4.65M for playing 23:34
    John Klengberg gets $4.25M for playing 23:21
    Ryan Ellis gets $2.5M!!!!! for playing 23:57

    Trouba, Ceci and Slevin are on RFA contracts. It would be pretty nice to have them under control for a long time.

  147. N64 says:

    Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun 52m52 minutes ago
    Plan is for VGK to file all its trades with Central Registry to make them official after the draft window closes at 10 am ET Wednesday

    Wow. While GMs still had alternatives before the Saturday trade deadline (unless you got a registered deal then) it’s the Summer of George.

    background on the expansion trade call process:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/gms-meet-ensure-vegas-expansion-passes-smell-test/

    The NHL made it clear that there are no “wink, wink” side deals allowed. For example, if the Pittsburgh Penguins wanted to ensure that goalie Matt Murray isn’t claimed, they could trade an asset to Las Vegas to keep it from happening.

    “Everybody talks about the Pittsburgh goaltending situation, but [they’re allowed to ask Vegas] not to take someone and we’ll give you ‘X,”’ said New Jersey Devils GM Ray Shero. “Sure, those are deals.”

    They would be complete with a trade call and the same kind of documentation that accompanies every exchange of players between teams. In the past, some of those transactions with expansion franchises were agreed to on the side.

  148. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    misfit,

    – Bogosian does play the “Chia way”, IMO…But he gets injured a lot

    – Do you trade Fayne, and Buffalo save a few million? But if he’s no good, you have an even bigger boat anchor contract for 2 more years..Aim higher I’d say

    – Anway, if Chia can find a D along the likes of Kassian/Maroon: i.e. other team’s cast-away, but in the right situation they perform: then Chia is the champ…

  149. Jaxon says:

    4 RHD to target that will not cost much and may be able to jump into the NHL right away and carry upside potential as top 4 D:

    Madison Bowey (WSH) – 6’1″, 194lbs. 22yrs. NHLe = 16. ELC 1yr @703k.
    Kyle Wood (ARI) – 6’5″, 209lbs. 21yrs. NHLe = 24. ELC 2yrs @718k.
    Julius Bergman (SJS) – 6’1″, 205lbs. 21yrs. NHLe = 18. ELC 2yrs @714k.
    Ryan Pulock (NYI) – 6’2″,214lbs. 22yrs. NHLe = 32. ELC 1yr @863k.

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