SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?

After what is being universally described as a quality draft, the Edmonton Oilers organization can now focus on free agency. Which brings us to a question with no clear answer: Will they or won’t they?

THE DRAFT

Bob McKenzie publishes the Bible every year just before the draft and this season the Oilers shot lights out. BM’s Top 93 + honorable mentions gave draft nuts 100 names to monitor. For many years this blog would rant and rave about walkabout picks, mentioning the McKenzie list by name and asking ‘why can’t the Oilers just use that as a guide?’. As it turns out, maybe they just needed to shuffle the scouting department.

  • No. 22 Kailer Yamamoto (BM No. 24)
  • No. 78 Stuart Skinner (BM No. 71)
  • No. 84 Dmitri Samorukov (BM No. 76)
  • No. 115 Ostap Safin (BM No. 51)
  • No. 146 Kirill Maksimov (BM Honorable Mention)
  • Source

That’s a helluva run, getting five of McKenzie’s top 100 players. The success of Edmonton’s draft this weekend is reflected in my top 20. The Oilers weren’t drafting in the top 5 so were unable to get an impact prospect. Or did they? Kailer Yamamoto is going to be worth following this fall and winter, I think the Oilers got a steal with that pick. I’ll have more draft items in the coming days (as you know well, I turn it into a long-term item) but it’s finally time to turn our attention back to the NHL team.

THE CURRENT ROSTER

  • My math is always a moving target, if you see something strange let me know.
  • I think this shows the Oilers, as currently constructed, are going to spend most of their current cap room on Leon Draisaitl and cap bonuses for the fall. My estimates have about $861,000 as the cushion if my Leon and Kassian numbers are close to correct.
  • It comes down to the following options: Jesse Puljujarvi’s cap bonus of $2.5M being buried; Andrej Sekera being put on LTIR for half a season; trading or buying out Benoit Pouliot and or Mark Fayne; staying quiet in free agency.

I think using half of Sekera’s cap number is a no brainer, as he’ll be out half the year based on all reports. I further think trading Benoit Pouliot may be more likely now than it was before the draft. Teams may be looking at those free agents available, checking on the price, and contemplating alternative arrangements. Question: Should Peter Chiarelli pursue anyone in free agency? Who? Here is Frank Seravalli’s latest list. My lists are below.

TARGETS IN FREE AGENCY (FORWARDS)

As it turned out, Edmonton traded for the fellow I had No. 1 on my list three days ago, let’s see if we can find lightning in a bottle at the top in free agency.

  1. LC Joe Thornton FREE AGENT (79gp, 7-43-50). Love to see it, seems doubtful.
  2. L Patrick Marleau FREE AGENT. (82gp, 27-19-46). Knows the coach.
  3. LC Martin Hanzal FREE AGENT (71gp, 20-19-39). Has to be high priority.
  4. R Radim Vrbata FREE AGENT (81gp, 20-35-55). Scorer.
  5. R Justin Williams FREE AGENT (80gp, 24-24-48). Luxury.
  6. LC Nick Bonino FREE AGENT (80gp, 18-19-37). Two-way C.
  7. R Sam Gagner FREE AGENT (81gp, 18-32-50). PP savant.
  8. R-L Thomas Vanek FREE AGENT (68gp, 17-31-48). Offensive option.
  9. R Jarome Iginla FREE AGENT (80gp, 14-13-27)He can still shoot the puck.
  10. R Brett Connolly FREE AGENT (66gp, 15-8-23). Inexpensive scoring on RW.
  11. RC Derek Ryan FREE AGENT (67gp, 11-18-29). Bob says he’s close in Carolina.
  12. R Jaromir Jagr FREE AGENT (82gp, 16-30-46). Now 70, still going.
  13. R Kris Versteeg FREE AGENT (69gp, 15-22-37). What he brings has value.
  14. R Ales Hemsky FREE AGENT (15gp, 4-3-7). Still brilliantly creative.
  15. LC Dominic Moore FREE AGENT (82gp, 11-14-25). PK and FO option.
  16. R Drew Stafford FREE AGENT (58gp, 8-13-21). Chiarelli type.
  17. LC Brian Boyle FREE AGENT (75gp, 13-12-25). He is on their list.
  18. L Patrick Sharp FREE AGENT (48gp, 8-10-18). Depending on health and price.
  19. R Tyler Pitlick FREE AGENT (31gp, 8-3-11). Finally emerged, could return.

I don’t have a few of Seravalli’s men on my list (Radulov, Weal) not because they have no value but because I think they’ll stay out east.

TARGETS IN FREE AGENCY (DEFENSE)

  1. RD Kevin Shattenkirk FREE AGENT (80gp, 13-43-56). One year at big coin?
  2. RD Cody Franson FREE AGENT (68GP, 3-16-19). Out of the blue and into the black.
  3. LD Brian Campbell FREE AGENT (80gp, 5-12-17). The man can still wheel.
  4. RD Michael Stone FREE AGENT (64gp, 3-12-15). Last chance Texaco.
  5. RD Eric Gryba FREE AGENT (40gp, 2-4-6). Good chance he returns.
  6. LD Jordan Oesterle FREE AGENT (2gp, 0-0-0). I like him as a 7D option.

I like most of these options and suspect the Oilers will either sign one of them or trade for an option not named Mark Fayne (he is on my roster above). Shattenkirk isn’t coming here, I just like the list better with him on it.

TOMORROW MORNING

I’ll have a look at the needs list (and what has been done) an updated 50-man and we’ll talk about the RFA’s and who Edmonton will qualify (they are due tomorrow).

TRADE?

I think so, but it might be at the trade deadline. Balance is not at hand, plus the things needed are not available in free agency. Will Peter Chiarelli sign Martin Hanzal and then move a center? Stay tuned. This thing isn’t over, but it seems to me we’re going the distance and that may mean the trade deadline.

 

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107 Responses to "SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?"

  1. Woogie63 says:

    I believe Foo is down to Red Wing (guarantee 40 games and 12 minutes a night) and Oilers (no guarantees, but he likes the RW depth and our center depth chart for the home team)

  2. Richard S.S. says:

    I use the Cap Friendly site and I like those numbers better than yours.
    Whomever you sign to replace Sekera is carried above Cap if necessary as well as some bonuses. Last year $3.158339 was carried as Current LTIR Relief. So that’s what make the Cap so interesting.

  3. adamjames says:

    Hanzal would be the perfect 3C for this team. Sadly I don’t think it can happen with Nuge on the team. I’d love to see Nuge on the wing in the top 6 and Hanzal 3C. Pipedream? Yes. Practical? Probably not.

    Hanzal gets $4.5×5 from someone, right?

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t see how the Oilers can make a material acquisition in free agency – Sure Sekera is on LTIR for the first half of this season but his full cap hit is there in the next few years.

    Notwithstanding Chia expressed the need to improve the defence at the year end presser, the Russell signing effectively closes the door on that concept – yes, they do need to sign a few depth d-men but that is not a material improvement.

    I’d be looking for guys that are willing to sign one-year contracts and there aren’t many – generally the older guys.

    One guy I’d kick the tires on subject to health is Simon Depres – if he’s healthy enough, he might be willing to sign one-year prove yourself type of deal.

  5. Richard S.S. says:

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is in demand. Whether any Team is willing to trade a RHD to get him, that’s the question. Mark Fayne has little to no Trade Value and too much dead money to keep or buyout. Benoit Pouliot has Trade Value just not what Chiarelli might be seeking. He’s going to have too long a term of dead money to buyout, so a trade might be necessary.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Also, is the bonus overage not a little low? I’ve got to think the McDavid hit a material amount of his bonuses and we know that Leon got a few (i.e. top 10 in points//game, i think that’s what it was – the screw you Eichel mark).

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    The thing with how much money they actually have to spend over the next few years is that only Chia really has an idea what the Drai/McDavid contracts are going to look like.

    Maybe he knows that they will be $16M and we have some more $$$$ to play with. Maybe he knows that it will be apx $20M and there is no money left.

    At this point, we may need to keep Fayne for defensive depth – the guy can play in the NHL.

    Pouliot – a buyout doesn’t makes sense but a trade with salary retention could open up $2M-$3M this year an next.

  8. McNuge93 says:

    I think the biggest need is D. Our offence as is is Ok, similar to last year and could add at the deadlines be. But D is thin especially if we had another injury. But anybody we take has to very cheap and/or a one year deal. The only one that fits is Gryba.

  9. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Also, is the bonus overage not a little low? I’ve got to think the McDavid hit a material amount of his bonuses and we know that Leon got a few (i.e. top 10 in points//game, i think that’s what it was – the screw you Eichel mark).

    They factored in most of it, haven’t seen the final number yet. Could be $1M or a little more.

  10. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t see how the Oilers can make a material acquisition in free agency – Sure Sekera is on LTIR for the first half of this season but his full cap hit is there in the next few years

    One year deal is ideal. Franson might sign for one year. People hate that option when I bring it up.

  11. digger50 says:

    I really, really want to see what Tyler Pitlick can do this year.

  12. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: One year deal is ideal. Franson might sign for one year. People hate that option when I bring it up.

    I don’t know why people would hate Franson on a one year deal. Sounds pretty good to me. Long term?…No thanks.

  13. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    Stauffer said he thinks the Oilers are mostly done and from what I am reading Detroit and Calgary seem to have a leg up on Foo.

  14. Chris says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is in demand.Whether any Team is willing to trade a RHD to get him, that’s the question.Mark Fayne has little to no Trade Value and too much dead money to keep or buyout.Benoit Pouliot has Trade Value just not what Chiarelli might be seeking.He’s going to have too long a term of dead money to buyout, so a trade might be necessary.

    Anyone who would trade Nugent Hopkins and Eberele is basically an idiot. You cannot open two gaping holes in your roster. Draissadle as talented as he may be can only play one position.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: One year deal is ideal. Franson might sign for one year. People hate that option when I bring it up.

    Simon Depres?

  16. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Richard S.S.,

    – Great post LT! It would be great when we can do a trade like you suggest Richard.

    – Like: “You know RNH is a great C, but we are stacked at C, that’s why we were able to get X”

    – And the other team be like: “we payed a heavy price, but RNH is what we needed”

    – A trade from strength, rather than fire sales, or for cap money (I don’t discount cap moves)

    – I’d accept a good old-fashioned fleecing trade as well, but those don’t happen much…

  17. digger50 says:

    What would Iginla cost for a year?

    He proved he can still play and we have a lot of youth. Might have to slow play him during regular season but the man was awesome in playoffs

  18. adamjames says:

    OriginalPouzar: Simon Depres?

    I recall there being talk that Depres career may be in jeopardy. Surprised that the buyout wasn’t appealed. Maybe it still can be? The guy has had some serious head issues. Didn’t play much at all last season.

    Now a healthy Simon Depres interests me though.

  19. VOR says:

    Original Pouzar,

    Sadly, Simon Depres’ injury – a concussion I believe, is so severe the question is not whether he can play hockey again but whether he can eventually have a normal life?

  20. Centre of attention says:

    I’m down with signing Marleau but you have to think you gotta dump Pouliot before that happens.

  21. MrEd says:

    RW, RD, and a back-up. 3 players for 6M with Pouliot out.
    One year contracts preferably.

    I really want RNH to have one more crack at the playoffs with this team.

  22. Richard S.S. says:

    The one year McDavid and Draisaitl are healthy and unabused. The Oilers have their best defensive year from Defense, Goaltending and two-way Forwards. Lucia is added to Maroon and Kassian.

    Eberle is almost absent in the Playoffs and cannot play with McDavid. When Jordan defends his offense disappears. When his offense is there his defense disappears. He’s smaller and slower than the Oilers need, yet when he gets traded it’s a travesty. That’s nonsense. He was theTeam’s cost of getting better.

  23. VOR says:

    LT, I mean no disrespect but Ryan Strome has never proven he can play center in the NHL and he has been given repeated chances to do so. He has never been higher than fifth on the Islanders depth chart as a center. He was there 2nd or 3rd line right wing. The guys blocking his way in New York were Alan Quine and Brock Nelson.

    In any case what would happen is somebody would get hurt and Strome would get a chance. He couldn’t win a face-off, bled scoring chances and had a terrible plus minus. Now he was a great center in junior and the AHL so maybe he can find that game again in the NHL, but I would really want some evidence before I pencilled him in as a center on any NHL team. To be fair Dougie Weight was giving him renewed opportunities and even letting him take important D-zone draws. He was out scoring his mistakes but he was still getting burnt and mostly playing right wing.

    Doesn’t sound like the three C on a Stanley Cup team.

  24. fifthcartel says:

    jasontheschoolteacher:
    Stauffer said he thinks the Oilers are mostly done and from what I am reading Detroit and Calgary seem to have a leg up on Foo.

    This would be very concerning.

    If the offseason entirely consisted of Eberle -> Strome and extending Russell, well, that’s incredibly underwhelming.

    They should be adding more and looking to win now.

  25. harryhooters says:

    I would love for a one year flyer on a depth defenseman. A guy like Brian Campbell would fit perfect, and is still a solid puck mover. Slot into Sekera’s spot nicely while hes on the shelf and become a solid depth option come playoffs (yeah Im calling it in June lol). But I know Ill take heat on this though but what about RHD Dan Giradi. He had a rough couple years but he would come cheap and would allow Benning to stay lower on the batting order. I though or top 4 D this year contributed to our success last year and to make sure we hold our own next year. Love Kailer Yamamoto pick, reminds me of a young ebs

  26. who says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is in demand.Whether any Team is willing to trade a RHD to get him, that’s the question.Mark Fayne has little to no Trade Value and too much dead money to keep or buyout.Benoit Pouliot has Trade Value just not what Chiarelli might be seeking.He’s going to have too long a term of dead money to buyout, so a trade might be necessary.

    If Pouliot had any trade value he would have been gone a year ago. He has negative value. I would hope for a rebound season so Chia can deal him before Mcdavid new salary kicks in.

  27. Richard S.S. says:

    After this season, the Korpikoski buyout ($1.0), Mark Fayne ($3.625), Patrick Maroon ($1.5) and Mark Letestu ($1.8) come of the books. There will still be one more year of Benoit Pouliot ($4.0) on the books. Even with a $2.5 – $3.0 Million increase in the Cap, Chiarelli needs more Cap space. Every trade Peter Chiarelli makes must clear Cap Space. Because McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Lucic and Sekera will occupy very close to 50% of the Cap. And that’s too much.

  28. harryhooters says:

    I would also love to say to all the hate on Russell…..you guys must love too lose. All the loosing years in Edmonton we NEVER had a competent top 4 defense core for 10 years. You think its a coincidence we have 4 solid NHL defencemen and we actuallly had a winning season….i think not. I would have Russell than a Hamonic all day. The Flames paid a steep price in a first rounder and 2 seconds. We need those picks to turn into cheap players on ELCs once McJesus gets PAID

  29. MrEd says:

    Richard S.S.,

    And you’d have to think that Maroon is someone that they’d like to retain.

    If you’re a GM do you think that the Cap is going to go up into perpetuity?

  30. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    LT, I mean no disrespect but Ryan Strome has never proven he can play center in the NHL and he has been given repeated chances to do so.

    I believe he’ll play center for the Oilers and take strong side faceoffs too. That’s one of the reasons to bring him in. Ideally, he could play with one of the LHC’s and everyone would be taking strong side faceoffs.

  31. russ99 says:

    Chris: Anyone who would trade Nugent Hopkins and Eberele is basically an idiot. You cannot open two gaping holes in your roster. Draissadle as talented as he may be can only play one position.

    I don’t see how RNH stays here after McDavid’s extension kicks in, he’s the highest paid player not in the McDavid core, and Sekera/Lucic have full NMCs and won’t be going anywhere.

    But as much as I’d like to see him dealt this summer, we can’t decimate the forwards that much, and I’d prefer we move him when his value is higher, and not get an Eberle-like return back.

  32. russ99 says:

    MrEd:
    Richard S.S.,

    And you’d have to think that Maroon is someone that they’d like to retain.

    If you’re a GM do you think that the Cap is going to go up into perpetuity?

    With Vegas coming in, revenue should jump. I’m expecting an $80M cap next summer. After that it could stagnate again until the next CBA.

  33. nelson88 says:

    jasontheschoolteacher:
    Stauffer said he thinks the Oilers are mostly done and from what I am reading Detroit and Calgary seem to have a leg up on Foo.

    I think that’s a smart play on Chia’s part. The roster is still young with plenty of room for internal development. West is weakening in general so; knocks on wood, missing the playoffs shouldn’t be an issue.Keep your powder dry and see what you have with Nurse, Benning, etc. You can add at the deadline if need in addition to the return of Sekera.

  34. jtblack says:

    Fayne Buyout – $1.2 Mil over 2 years
    Pouliot Buyout – $1.3 Mil over 4 years

    You could certainly buyout Fayne, that would free up almost $3 mil to go shopping.

    I think a Pouliot buyout would punish the team for too long. I also believe Pouliot has no market value what so ever. PC moved Yak for a 3rd round pick. He would move Pouliot for a bag of pucks if he could, nobody wants him. I think the coach needs to figure out how to utilize him (PK, #3 LW, something).

    I would love to see Marleau here. He can skill skate and can play any position. I think Thornton is passed due.

    The forward depth is close now. I would sign a true #3C and keep Drai and Strome on the wing. Leon can flip flop, but basically RNH can be told to press for O, Connor & Drai give us one of the best lines in the league instantly.

    Love the work LT. Love the drafting by the Oilers.

  35. JDI says:

    Alright – if he’s here for four more years, can someone at least get him a small domed/brimed Oilers hat? That tiny melon in those farmer’s style hats looks reedic.

  36. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    I thought I heard Strome’s faceoff % was around 45%. I wonder how he is on his strong side. If he can deliver 50% on strong side only, definitely an upgrade …

  37. jtblack says:

    harryhooters,

    CGY has no 1st, 2nd or 3rd next year. They have no 2nd or 3rd in 2019. So 1 chip out of 6. Gio will stat the season at 34 years old. I think his GM was forced to go in early because of this. Gio has 5 yers left at $6.8 Mil ! And he’s on the decline …

    I don’t think the Flames are ready to Compete for a Cup, but I think their GM also felt he couldn’t wait for picks to develop.

    Flames will be in a tough spot as their prospect cupboard is bare (LT would know more accuately if true, but I see it that way).

  38. Glass says:

    Question: Is it plausible that we can fit Nuge into the McDavid cap era? Losing Fayne & Pouliot clears up $7M, but so many players are due for new contracts that year as well.

    I like what we have at LW, but I’m not so sure its possible that we can keep both Caggiula AND Maroon. Especially given Maroon’s possible contract ask.

    If Strome doesn’t turn out to be ideal at 3C, suspect it’s him or Slepyshev, not both.

    Really hope we can get one of Pitlick or Foo signed as well.

  39. MrEd says:

    JDI,

    Disagree entirely. That hat looks fantastic:)

  40. jtblack says:

    Glass,

    “Is it plausible that we can fit Nuge into the McDavid cap era? “- No, I dno’t think so.

    McD, Cagguila, Sleppy, Strome, Maroon, Nurse, Benning and Broissoit all require new contracts … Even if we don’t sign them all; we know Nurse and Bennig will be kept and get healthy raises. not to mention Strome, Cagg, etc ..

  41. MrEd says:

    Glass,

    I’m thinking that the Foo camp has done the homework.
    Not a fit.

  42. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    Lowetide,

    I thought I heard Strome’s faceoff % was around 45%. I wonder how he is on his strong side. If he can deliver 50% on strong side only, definitely an upgrade …

    Exactly my thinking on the issue.

  43. MrEd says:

    Lowetide,

    So he’ll get minutes with 97?

  44. Lowetide says:

    MrEd:
    Lowetide,

    So he’ll get minutes with 97?

    Yes. I think he’ll mirror Leon, as in Strome plays center when Leon is up with McDavid and then play move on to 97’s when Leon is at center. The other possible option for McDavid is Caggiula.

  45. treevojo says:

    I may be in the minority.

    But I think think if the oilers resign gryba it is good enough to to be a playoff team.

    Then at the deadline after 3/4s of the season reevaluate and fill holes with expiring contracts for draft picks to make a run.

    This team doesn’t need to be the Washington Capitals.

    The regular season cup is for losers.

  46. treevojo says:

    russ99: With Vegas coming in, revenue should jump. I’m expecting an $80M cap next summer. After that it could stagnate again until the next CBA.

    Do you know how much profit the Knights would have to generate to make the cap go up by by 5 million for all teams?

  47. slopitch says:

    At this point, I think the best play is Nuge for Faulk and sign Hanzal. But doing very little, sign some college guys and build for the deadline is close. Oilers don’t have much so space and aren’t far back. Stay the course could very well be the best option.

  48. Glass says:

    jtblack,

    Interesting. Given this, what would you want for RNH? Lets assume, just for the hypothetical, he bounces back to a 50 point year, which is great considering lesser line-mates, tougher zone starts/competition, and downgraded to the 2nd PP.

    One option might be to shop for a 2RD or well regarded RD prospect + pick. Wouldn’t have a lot of cap savings with the 2RD. Maybe downgrade to a 3C + pick (imagine the cap savings on Jarnkrok…). Or possibly a collection of picks similar to the Hamonic trade.

    That being said, the return could upset fans due to the fact that other teams know we’ll be up against the cap.

  49. treevojo says:

    treevojo:
    I may be in the minority.

    But I think think if the oilers resign gryba it is good enough to to be a playoff team.

    Then at the deadline after 3/4s of the season reevaluate and fill holes with expiring contracts for draft picks to make a run.

    This team doesn’t need to be the Washington Capitals.

    The regular season cup is for losers.

    This is why I wish Mr. Lowetide would reconsider and post his balance photos after the trade deadline.

    To me it is the only time that matters.

  50. jtblack says:

    slopitch,

    Would love Faulk, but I don’t think he is available??

    Riddle me this. He was 52.8 CF% and – 18?

    Has good possession metrics, 15+ Goals per year, 40 points. Age 25. RHD. $4.8 Cap hit for 3 more years. Would be Dream solution. Instant Cup Contender with him and instance Balance / Depth on the Blue …

  51. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Hitch Your Wagon To A Star

    McDavid won’t be an Oiler forever, the clock is ticking….

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/06/hitch-your-wagon-to-star.html

    *****END SPAM*****

  52. treevojo says:

    The presidents trophy winner has won the Stanley cup 8 times since 1985-86.

    That’s roughly 25% chance at the holy grail.

    Balance should be defined at the deadline.

    I wonder if anyone better then me at the inter webs can figure out post deadline records vs Stanley cups to see if there is a higher correlation.

  53. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Hitch Your Wagon To A Star

    McDavid won’t be an Oiler forever, the clock is ticking….

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/06/hitch-your-wagon-to-star.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Nice to see you back!

    Stick around around would ya.

  54. Glass says:

    Wonder what 3C’s will be available next free agency. Hanzal & Bonino aren’t a whole lot to choose from, and Derek Ryan doesn’t look like he’ll make it to July 1.

  55. Chachi says:

    Holzer off the board.

    http://www.tsn.ca/reports-ducks-sign-d-holzer-to-extension-1.788729

    That’s it. The Oilers might as well not even play this year. There’s no one left to sign and or trade for and what everyone else is doing is better than the Oilers. That darn Chiarelli is awful! Wah wah wah.

  56. jtblack says:

    treevojo,

    We can start this year and work backwards. The 2 teams that made the biggest deadline deals were Wash and Minny.

    The Panthers and Hawks loaded up in 2016. Poor results. The Pens did Grab J Schultz at the deadline and won the cup.

    2015 doesn’t look like anyone loaded up. I think the best results are usually more minor (but important); extra D man or 2; maybe a 3rd liner. Seems when teams load up, their chemistry is altered and the pressure is difficult. I am sure there are examples of when a team loaded up and won (1994 Rangers) …. others?

    Hard to measure these things.

  57. Ryan says:

    treevojo: Nice to see you back!

    Stick around around would ya.

    Plot spoilers.

    1. The Oilers are one of the teams that experience the biggest drop offs in play when their best player is on the bench.

    2. The Oilers are basically a lottery team with McDavid on the bench and Chiarelli has done very little to change that.

    3. The wowy numbers are unkind for Draisatl without McDavid or Hall.

    4. Kris Russell’s contract was an unforced error.

    5. The Oilers would have done well to trade for Harmonic.

  58. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: One year deal is ideal. Franson might sign for one year. People hate that option when I bring it up.

    Why not Ron Hainsey instead of Franson? He is a better D in every possible way.

  59. The Hermit says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thank you.

    Nice to see you. 🙂

  60. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Hitch Your Wagon To A Star

    McDavid won’t be an Oiler forever, the clock is ticking….

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/06/hitch-your-wagon-to-star.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    I have stated for quite some time on this blog that if I were Mcdavids agents I would be signing for 5 years.

    Haven’t finished reading your article but for a guy like Mcdavid an opportunity to win should be everything.

    Before I read the rest I will say I am not Twitter but have checked your last Few days out after somebody on here sugested you were on the “warpath”.

    I think we are in disagreement over the Hamonic trade.

    But that’s ok.

    Time will tell.

  61. treevojo says:

    jtblack:
    treevojo,

    We can start this year and work backwards. The 2 teams that made the biggest deadline deals were Wash and Minny.

    The Panthers and Hawks loaded up in 2016. Poor results.The Pens did Grab J Schultz at the deadline and won the cup.

    2015 doesn’t look like anyone loaded up. I think the best results are usually more minor (but important); extra D man or 2; maybe a 3rd liner.Seems when teams load up, their chemistry is altered and the pressure is difficult.I am sure there are examples of when a team loaded up and won (1994 Rangers) …. others?

    Hard to measure these things.

    I never said big moves.

    Just filling percieved holes.

    Again if anybody has post deadline records vs Stanley cups I would love to see them.

  62. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Hitch Your Wagon To A Star

    McDavid won’t be an Oiler forever, the clock is ticking….

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/06/hitch-your-wagon-to-star.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Yep.

  63. treevojo says:

    Ryan: Plot spoilers.

    1. The Oilers are one of the teams that experience the biggest drop offs in play when their best player is on the bench.

    2. The Oilers are basically a lottery team with McDavid on the bench and Chiarelli has done very little to change that.

    3. The wowy numbers are unkind for Draisatl without McDavid or Hall.

    4. Kris Russell’s contract was an unforced error.

    5. The Oilers would have done well to trade for Harmonic.

    Hall at this point for me is irrelevant.

    I wouldn’t have traded for Hamonic at that price if we’re Chiarelli.

  64. jtblack says:

    treevojo,

    Given that so many contendig teams at least make minor deals, it may be interesting to see if any team has won the Cup without making even a minor trade at the deadline. Pitts won the Cup with Hainsey? Would they have won without him? hard to say … Year before they grabbed Schultz …

    I don’t think any team can hurt themselves by grabbing one or two extra d men at the deadline ..

  65. jtblack says:

    Ryan,

    You could be correct? We won’t know til next April!

    What was your position before the start of last season? I am guessing it was fairly similar ..

  66. treevojo says:

    jtblack:
    treevojo,

    Given that so many contendig teams at least make minor deals, it may be interesting to see if any team has won the Cup without making even a minor trade at the deadline.Pitts won the Cup with Hainsey?Would they have won without him?hard to say … Year before they grabbed Schultz …

    I don’t think any team can hurt themselves by grabbing one or two extra d men at the deadline ..

    There has to be somebody in this computer savvy group that can give me post deadline points to playoff success correlation.

    Afte that it should be fairly easy to go back and look at their deadline moves.

  67. Lebeau says:

    Couple free agent which 1 year deals would make sense for me would

    Inginla for 1.5-2m right shot and is around 55% on face offs. Calgary used him a lot for right handed draws. Could be great fit on the powerplay.

    Beacuchemin – just bought out and might be able to sign 1yr/under 2m. Played over 21 minutes per game. had 34 and 18 points over the last 2 years.. Nice stop gap for the year.

  68. treevojo says:

    Chachi:
    Holzer off the board.

    http://www.tsn.ca/reports-ducks-sign-d-holzer-to-extension-1.788729

    That’s it. The Oilers might as well not even play this year. There’s no one left to sign and or trade for and what everyone else is doing is better than the Oilers. That darn Chiarelli is awful! Wah wah wah.

    You have a lot to say for a Trump sock puppet!

  69. MrEd says:

    Woodguy v2.0,
    You make a strong point as always.
    McDavid is really freaking good and Chia should surround him with really good players at maximum value.

  70. MrEd says:

    Treevojo. Bang on tonight.

  71. mr sakich says:

    is it a good idea to have 5 million dollars tied up in your 4th line? I like Kassian but, if he is slotted as a 4th line wing , we can;t go 2.2 mill. That is a position with a cap max of about 1 mill

  72. MrEd says:

    mr sakich,

    Kassian. It’s funny how we trifle about hundreds of thousands of dollars with a player that is so dear to the team.
    Yet on the top end we’re willing to submit to numbers because they’re round.

  73. JDI says:

    David Pagnotta‏ @TheFourthPeriod

    There’s a lot of interest in F Tyler Pitlick. Strong forward (C/RW) & great skater. He won’t be back w/ Oilers; caught many eyes b4 injury.

  74. russ99 says:

    Ryan: Plot spoilers.

    1. The Oilers are one of the teams that experience the biggest drop offs in play when their best player is on the bench.

    2. The Oilers are basically a lottery team with McDavid on the bench and Chiarelli has done very little to change that.

    3. The wowy numbers are unkind for Draisatl without McDavid or Hall.

    4. Kris Russell’s contract was an unforced error.

    5. The Oilers would have done well to trade for Harmonic.

    6. Our effectiveness last year was limited by a second scoring line who often failed at scoring, containing a forward who didn’t play defense and another one who constantly made offensive zone penalties.

    If we can reclaim RNH with a tough summer working at the gym building strength and with replacement forwards who are effective in the system, not ones depressed when they’re not wheeling on the rush, we could be better than last year.

    Maroon – McDavid – Strome
    Lucic – Draisaitl – Slepyshev
    Caggiula – RNH – Kassian
    Khaira – Letestu – Pakarinen

  75. frjohnk says:

    jtblack:
    harryhooters,

    CGY has no 1st, 2nd or 3rd next year.They have no 2nd or 3rd in 2019.So 1 chip out of 6.Gio will stat the season at 34 years old. I think his GM was forced to go in early because of this. Gio has 5 yers left at $6.8 Mil !And he’s on the decline …

    I don’t think the Flames are ready to Compete for a Cup, but I think their GM also felt he couldn’t wait for picks to develop.

    Flames will be in a tough spot as their prospect cupboard is bare (LT would know more accuately if true, but I see it that way).

    This is bare cupboard ( other than JP) http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0073882017.html

    Calgary has some nice young players that they could use for currency at the deadline http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0073932017.html

    Also noticed, they also have a player who is smaller and lighter than our Kailor. http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=180387 Phillips scored 50 goals 90 points last year and is only 5 months older than Kailor. Flames got him in the 6th round last year.

  76. MrEd says:

    JDI,

    Love it. Pitlick was a reason for our teams success this year. Period.

    (Talk about space)

  77. Zelepukin says:

    JDI:
    David Pagnotta‏ @TheFourthPeriod


    There’s a lot of interest in F Tyler Pitlick. Strong forward (C/RW) & great skater. He won’t be back w/ Oilers; caught many eyes b4 injury.

    I’ll be pissed if we lose him, but not surprised if someone with much more to spend, takes a gamble on a bigger contract.

  78. frjohnk says:

    Ryan: 2. The Oilers are basically a lottery team with McDavid on the bench and Chiarelli has done very little to change that.

    Just because we get outcorsied, outshot, outchanced, and outscored when we take McDavid’s TOI away from the equation doesn’t mean…oh shit…that’s not good.

  79. MrEd says:

    Zelepukin,

    No doubt. Lance Pitlick is a competitor and will put the puck in the net.

  80. MrEd says:

    His problem is that he eats crossbars and the end boards too often to make him truly worthwhile.

  81. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    russ99: With Vegas coming in, revenue should jump. I’m expecting an $80M cap next summer. After that it could stagnate again until the next CBA.

    The cap increase is only the amount VGK’s revenue is greater than twice their salary cost.

    Then it would only reduce the escrow and not really create any cap increase. Unless the Canadian dollar goes up significantly the only cap increases will be the escalater clause.

    That could of course be 78.75 in 2018-19 if the players vote the full 5%.

  82. LMHF#1 says:

    I’d hate to see the reaction here if Pitlick outscores Strome for another team next season.

    On talent alone it could happen. I was never a believer in the guy but he sure played some hockey last year.

  83. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy will definitely take this a step further but this is something I have been wondering for awhile as well

    CF%
    McDavid On 53.07%
    McDavid Off 48.38%
    SF%
    McDavid On 53.99%
    McDavid Off 49.51%
    FF%
    McDavid On 54.14%
    McDavid Off 49.27%
    GF%
    McDavid On 62.1%
    McDavid Off 48.90%
    SCF%
    McDavid On 53.8%
    McDavid Off 47.41%
    HDCF%
    McDavid On 58.26%
    McDavid Off 45.52%
    HDGF%
    McDavid On 62.65%
    McDavid Off 43.81%

    Now teams with good depth will have many of the OFF metrics with their best player off the ice above 50%. Our fenwick and shots % are very close, but when we look shot attempt % from the slot, Oilers get worked over. Oilers without McDavid on the ice could be gaming for corsi. 🙂

  84. VOR says:

    LT,

    My problem with Ryan Strome playing center run much deeper than his ability to take face-offs but lets start there.

    You don’t have to watch much film of Strome taking face-offs to understand part of the problem is the Islanders as a group have been bad to horrendous over the last few years at puck support. If their centers don’t win a face-off clean they don’t win the face-off. Sadly, Strome won’t find the Oilers that much better at supporting him.

    Strome doesn’t make it easier on himself. He relies on lightening quick reflexes and decent anticipation to win his face-offs. He uses the same move, back hand because he isn’t strong enough to go forehand. This makes him terribly predictable. He doesn’t get his stick back up fast enough and isn’t strong enough to win the stick duel that precedes and sometimes follows most face-offs. Strome doesn’t step in, he seldom tries to scramble the draw, he rarely kicks the puck. He focuses very much on trying to make sure his man is tied up but you can see that is a struggle.

    In the AHL Strome actually admitted that he gets worn out by a busy night on the face-off dot against much stronger men. So the coach would roll out Anders Lee (Lee was a center in college) on Strome’s left side and go lefty-righty. Strome definitely did better in this setting, not only was he now only taking draws on his strong side the other team’s center was wearing out against Lee who is a beast.

    So lets try to make an educated guess about how much better Strome would be only taking strong side draws? I am going to go with 5%. So based on this year he would be about a 48% face-off guy. In a good year he might win 50% of his draws. He has neither the strength nor the art to be a truly elite face-off man.

    All of that said why would you have him play center? You can get the benefit of him taking face-offs on his strong side and have him play right wing. There is no need for him to play center. It would make more sense to have him play right wing with Nugent-Hopkins and let RNH take the left side face-offs and Strome the right. You’d be a lot closer to 50% on draws than you are now.

    Additionally, we know RNH comes back to support the puck in his own end. We know RNH marks his man and works hard at hanging on to them. These skills are far more important to a center than winning face-offs.

    What do we know about Strome? The kid is a career out-player in terms of shot and possession metrics but the puck ends up in his own net far more often than it ends up in the other teams net when he is on the ice. Good possession metrics and bad goal outcomes may imply a lack of defensive prowess. And that is playing right wing. Center is way harder to play, particularly on defense.

    Again why would the Oilers want Ryan Strome to play center? Is it really just because theoretically it gives the Oilers a mirror man for Draisaitl? Does the benefit of that and winning a few more face-offs make up for the increased scoring opportunities you will surrender to the opposition having Strome play center? And for the increased trouble you will have coming out of your own end, which is all ready not a team strength?

    I assume I am missing something given I respect you greatly and you seem to think it is a good idea to have Strome play center. It certainly seems possible the Oilers agree with you. I would really like to understand what it is I am not getting? Am I misunderstanding the advantage having a mirror man provides? Is there something inherent in the strategy that makes up for evident deficiencies in the player filling the role?

  85. frjohnk says:

    Here is the long list of players who had an on ice shot attempt % from the slot over 50% without McDavid

    HDCF% Without McDavid
    Matt Benning 54.11%

    Only 1?
    1 Fucking player made the list?
    How about the rest? ( I’m snarky tonight, sue me)

    HDCF% Without McDavid (for players that played majority of the year)

    Patrick Maroon 49.68% what Lucic should aspire to
    Zack Kassian 49.26% Sign this Mofo already
    Jordan Eberle 47.8% Good riddance, we don’t need guys under 50% away from McDavid
    Drake Caggiula 47.43% Rookie did OK with gifted minutes away from McDavid
    Oscar Klefbom 46.6% Not so dreamy
    Andrej Sekera 46.53% “Russell the turd polisher” bring him to respectability or is it the Polish Turd?
    Benoit Pouliot 46.06% Hasn’t he been traded yet
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 45.91% Numbers keep dropping as he grows his 5th piece of facial hair
    Darnell Nurse 44.04% Under 45%? Entering the depths of hell here
    Mark Letestu 43.98% Fucking hot in here
    Adam Larsson 43.75% Going further down?
    Leon Draisaitl 43.56% Are you fucking kidding me?
    Eric Gryba 43.36% No eyebrows left
    Jesse Puljujarvi 42.37% or eyelashes
    Kris Russell 42.15% and that’s with using my hands and arms to block the heat
    Anton Slepyshev 42.14 Fuck me gently
    Milan Lucic 41.45 CHESTNUTS ROASTING ON AN OPEN FIRE

    The good news is that this is only one set of stats. The bad news is that basically the whole team away from McDavid gets outshot from the slot. That’s something very concerning.

  86. Lowetide says:

    VOR:

    So lets try to make an educated guess about how much better Strome would be only taking strong side draws? I am going to go with 5%.

    Are we basing it on anything? I think that’s a pretty good guess but wonder if you had anything. I would love to find strong-weak side totals.

  87. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide: One year deal is ideal. Franson might sign for one year. People hate that option when I bring it up.

    I’ll bet Kris Russell would sign another one-year deal for similar money, if we wanted to go that route.

    Wait, what?

  88. Professor Q says:

    I see that the NHL wants to fund the NCAA for developmental purposes (instead of the CIS, sobs).

    How legal would this be? I thought the NCAA had strict rules about funding and player gifts?

  89. Chachi says:

    treevojo: You have a lot to say for a Trump sock puppet!

    The fact that “Cameron” thought that was an insult that made any sense at all or that it might offend me in some way verified everything I thought to be true about Flames fans in general and “Cameron” in particular.

    Still though, Holzer, man what a heartbreaking development. Why aren’t the Oilers in on every trade or signing? My sister’s friend’s boyfriend’s dentist’s garbage man’s favourite Elvis impersonator totally knows Chiarelli’s chiropractor and he has a source close to the team (who he can’t name) who says Chiarelli totally could have been in on every trade other made in the last two years, but he passed because he’s just too incompetent. Chiarelli’s just coasting on years of success and will be exposed as a pretender any decade now.

  90. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Thanks for the kind words all.

    Thanks for letting me spam your blog LT.

    One day when I’m mature enough to ignore the things I should I’ll probably post more often.

  91. Chachi says:

    Professor Q:
    I see that the NHL wants to fund the NCAA for developmental purposes (instead of the CIS, sobs).

    How legal would this be? I thought the NCAA had strict rules about funding and player gifts?

    As long as the players receive no monetary benefit from the NHL’s support the NCAA will gladly suck up that funding source as well.

  92. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy and LT are right.
    The Oilers window is not two years from now it IS now.

    The problem is the roster still isn’t balanced. There seems to be a hedging going on between future and present and the plans look murky to me.

    Eberle goes for cap room. Say what you will, and I wouldn’t put it past Strome to maybe be a good buy low candidate and it could work out. But value wise Chia gave up the more valuable piece.
    Hall was allegedly so hated by his teammates he was addition by subtraction according to some people, but Chia gave up what was at the time a more valuable piece. Always been a Larsson fan and he had a decent year.
    Reinhart deal was an utter disaster.
    Lucic contract will be a disaster in the back nine.
    Russell is an overpay on both cap and term for a complementary player.

    I guess my issue is that the Reinhart deal was a “win now” deal. 16 and 33 in a really deep draft is arguably worth more than what the Flames gave up for Hamonic, who is a better fit than Russell and makes less.

    But because that was such a swing and miss Chia does not want to give up future picks again.

    Meanwhile he is making other “win now” moves but losing the value trade (cap space for Lucic, player value for Hall and Eberle) each time. Eventually you are going to run out of bullets in the chamber.

    I know hindsight is 20/20 but most folks here did hate the Reinhart move at the time. You add an Ek or Barzal they are bubbling under ready to contribute 3Rd line offense at ELC. You add a Beauvilier etc to the prospect group. Combined with Bear/Jones and JP you probably could make a move to get Hamonic and round out the D. Instead you are paying Russell 4 X 4 to avoid giving up assets.

    Reality is Pouliot and Fayne’s cap space will simply go to filling McDavid and Leon deals and there won’t be meaningful high profile additions. And Nuge will also be a cap victim eventually a la Eberle. And Chia’s track record above is cause for concern. Wait for the Nuge for a younger, cheaper 3C who is a buy low candidate but has never posted Nuge like results to be the return.

    The window is open now and the plan to contend seems to be muddled to me. Can’t be that way. If you are going for it, and they are, they need to be making smarter deals.

    Definitely some yellow flags out there in my opinion, if not red. I know Chia fans are staunch defenders of him. We were so bad for so long and the team did better last year, I get it. People want Hall supporters to eat crow, even if they are also Larsson fans like I always have been, I get it.

    But in my opinion this team is already on a slippery slope, up against the cap and Chia is bleeding value to try to get to where he needs to get to. McDavid is such a talent it might not matter for one Cup but if this team wants multiple titles I think management needs to be really careful. Soon approaching the Chicago spot of having to move talent out for cap space and at least they had already won when that happened. This team has won one round and that time is nigh.

  93. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Thanks for the kind words all.

    Thanks for letting me spam your blog LT.

    One day when I’m mature enough to ignore the things I should I’ll probably post more often.

    Good Christ, Darcy. Don’t wait that long! 🙂

  94. VOR says:

    LT,

    I have data for a hand full of centers most of them now retired. But unfortunately as far as I can tell teams don’t collect and or publish this data. I got what I have by data mining.

    I can tell you that Shaun Van Allen was 56% on his strong side over a four or five year stretch and 49% on his weak side. Ron Francis was 66% on his strong side versus 58% on his weak side over “much of his career”. Patrice Bergeron is said to be about 65%-59%.

    In each case these numbers come from interviews sometimes with the player, sometimes with team mates, sometimes with coaches. Most of the fifteen players I have some data on are really good at face-offs. They often have years of more than 60% averaging according to interviews 63%-57% in those years.

    From those interviews I have pulled common terms that seem to explain extraordinary face-off success (and these guys are elite). This gives terms like “getting your stick up”, “stepping in”, “being able to go both forehand and backhand”, “cheating”, “anticipation”, “scrambling the draw”, “making sure you don’t lose clean”, and “tanking in the neutral zone.” The last has to do with making sure you don’t give away your best moves in the neutral zone but save them for late in the game in your own end.

    I was doing that for another project. But when the press started calling the Eberle-Strome trade I went looking for articles that contained information on Strome and face-offs. I didn’t expect much but there was actually quite a bit, most of it from the AHL. What I wanted to know was how many of these terms had been used to describe Strome?

    I now know that Strome has better than average anticipation for example and is really good at not losing clean. I also stumbled on the tidbit I shared earlier about Lee doing some of the the heavy lifting when Strome was worn down. Better yet I found some face-off numbers for the nights Anders Lee played lefty to Strome’s righty. Sadly, they were for the entire Tigers team but there was a definite improvement in outcome, 51% the night before, 56% with Lee and Strome tag teaming, Very small sample size. Also, Strome himself has said he wasn’t strong enough yet to go forehand.

    Add to that a large number of articles pointing out that there is far more to taking a face-off than just strong or weak side and I thought 5% improvement seems like a reasonable number. If elite players go 6% and the difference among face-off men is actually quite small (that is just a statistical reality) then 4 or 5% is probably the effect for mere mortals.

    Though who takes the face-offs on your opposite side in a tag-team might actually be really important as well. These interviews all talked about how much strength and energy it takes to be really good at face-offs over the course of an entire game. Having the guy helping you take draws be a Martin Hanzal, brutally strong and given to smashing into his opponent on most face-offs could well wear a center who is playing both sides on face-offs into mush.

    There was also a bunch of people like Mark Letestu saying that face-offs are just a matter of focus and practice and that young players tend to get better at it as they age because they increase their focus on the little things. They also learn from what their opponents have done. Best of all they get stronger and more stubborn as Shaun Van Allen put it. I sort of assumed in my 5% that Strome is probably reaching a point where if the takes regular face-offs (like every right side draw when he is on the ice) that he will have an incentive to improve his focus.

    On top of which I have watched video of many of the great face-off artists and it is, everyone agrees, an art. That is for my other project but I compared those players to Strome when I heard about the trade. It seems impossible Strome will ever be above average so that sort of reinforced the 5% improvement.

    So an educated guess.

    Just another note – I have learned and confirmed by looking at score sheets – that face-off%s are wildly uneven. Even Patrice Bergeron has nights he is 15 or 20% on the dot – which of course means he has nights he is 70 or 80% on the dot. Game footage doesn’t actually give a clear answer to what the difference is so it is probably down to luck. Though players will have opposing centers they own on the dot and others that own them, so subtle things probably matter a lot.

    Hope that helps.

  95. Blackwolf says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Funny how things work around here eh. Everyone seems to get pigeon holed, you need to be a lover or hater, you’re not allowed to be some where in between.
    Try to put yourself in Chia’s shoes. He took over a team with a barren farm system, a team that was outrageously top heavy with no defence or goalie, and payroll is a disaster.
    We need talent on the farm sooner than later (Reinhardt an attempt to speed that up, big fail). We needed to fix the d, like the price or no, that happened pretty well. He is now restructuring payroll to bring dollars more in line as to wear he wants to spend them, and to prepare for Leon and Connor. We saved 3.5m on the eberle trade. 900k went to Russell, presumably the rest will goto Leon.
    All this talk about trading picks, jp, etc makes no sense to me. Do we want to maybe win a cup this year and then be done? I would prefer to build a team that is a contender for the next decade. That takes work snd patience.

  96. Psyche says:

    Another reality no one is talking about is Sekera’s level of play when he returns from injury. In my experience, he won’t be back to 100% until the following season. He will play next year, but it will be a different version of Sekera. Coming into the NHL game mid-season on a repaired knee is a helluva thing.

    What’s the pitch the Oilers are making to UFA D-men? It must be with an understanding there is a roster opportunity for the entire season. Otherwise why would anyone decent sign in Edm?

  97. Gerta Rauss says:

    Psyche: What’s the pitch the Oilers are making to UFA D-men? It must be with an understanding there is a roster opportunity for the entire season. Otherwise why would anyone decent sign in Edm?

    Good point- I think the Oilers are better served to be looking to trade for a D with 1 year remaining on his deal. It doesn’t have to be a blockbuster, and he can be a left or right hand D that can provide at least moderate cover on the 2nd pair playing with Russell

    It may cost a pick/prospect now, but you’ll recoup some of that by moving him at the deadline-and if he’s an integral part of your team you keep him and let his deal expire. A pick/prospect is a moderate price to pay to cover for Sekera’s injury

  98. Gerta Rauss says:

    Oh, and welcome back Woodguy

  99. Bank Shot says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Woodguy and LT are right.
    The Oilers window is not two years from now it IS now.

    But in my opinion this team is already on a slippery slope, up against the cap and Chia is bleeding value to try to get to where he needs to get to. McDavid is such a talent it might not matter for one Cup but if this team wants multiple titles I think management needs to be really careful. Soon approaching the Chicago spot of having to move talent out for cap space and at least they had already won when that happened. This team has won one round and that time is nigh.

    I think the problem with that line of thought, is that it assumes that Edmonton had the talent in place with RNH,Eberle, Hall + McDavid to be in the position to have a team of Chicago’s calibre.

    RNH and Eberle would have never made it into Chicago’s core. Hall would have been the Patrick Sharp of the group.

    So Chiarelli was starting with a mediocre core, that was already making big bucks. Had, he been the GM sooner he might have been able to swap some of the “core” guys out like Yakupov or Schultz before their value had been completely eroded.

  100. LMHF#1 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I’m not sure we can assume they’re all in to win. The game changed with McDavid in another way – Katz can now sit there, pay McDavid for 8 years and watch his franchise value balloon. I hope I’m wrong, but I think they’re all fat and happy. Or at least close.

  101. russ99 says:

    Bank Shot: I think the problem with that line of thought, is that it assumes that Edmonton had the talent in place with RNH,Eberle, Hall + McDavid to be in the position to have a team of Chicago’s calibre.

    RNH and Eberle would have never made it into Chicago’s core. Hall would have been the Patrick Sharp of the group.

    So Chiarelli was starting with a mediocre core, that was already making big bucks. Had, he been the GM sooner he might have been able to swap some of the “core” guys out like Yakupov or Schultz before their value had been completely eroded.

    The more we understand that MacTavish’s whole plan was wrong, we couldn’t win with the Austins and puck movers that can’t defend all pushing up to score, the better off we are.

    Chiarelli is still cleaning up that mess, until he’s done, it will be difficult to make a trade from a position of strength, thus said players are worth far less on the actual market than we think they are.

    Want to “win” a trade? Move Draisaitl and Puljujarvi, that’s who opposing GMs want.

  102. frjohnk says:

    russ99: Chiarelli is still cleaning up that mess, until he’s done

    Lots of work yet

    This is all 5 on 5

    Shots
    McDavid on the ice
    730 shots for, 622 shots against
    McDavid off the ice
    1275 shots for, 1300 shots against

    Goals
    McDavid on the ice
    77 goals for, 47 goals against
    McDavid off the ice
    89 goals for, 93 goals against

    Goals from the slot
    McDavid on the ice
    52 goals for, 31 goals against
    McDavid off the ice
    46 goals for, 59 goals against

    Like I said earlier, teams with good depth will have some of their metrics above 50% without their best player on the ice. Chia has done some good things, but the Oilers are not there. We are now going to be close to the cap and hope the young ones take steps forward

  103. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bank Shot: I think the problem with that line of thought, is that it assumes that Edmonton had the talent in place with RNH,Eberle, Hall + McDavid to be in the position to have a team of Chicago’s calibre.

    RNH and Eberle would have never made it into Chicago’s core. Hall would have been the Patrick Sharp of the group.

    So Chiarelli was starting with a mediocre core, that was already making big bucks. Had, he been the GM sooner he might have been able to swap some of the “core” guys out like Yakupov or Schultz before their value had been completely eroded.

    This line of thinking has some merit, no doubt. The core was not good enough. I understand the need to move pieces out, I do think the value coming back is questionable.

  104. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Blackwolf:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Funny how things work around here eh. Everyone seems to get pigeon holed, you need to be a lover or hater, you’re not allowed tobe some where in between.Try to put yourself in Chia’s shoes. He took over a team with a barren farm system, a team that was outrageously top heavy with no defence or goalie, and payroll is a disaster.We need talent on the farm sooner than later (Reinhardt an attempt to speed that up, big fail). We needed to fix the d, like the price or no, that happened pretty well. He is now restructuring payroll to bring dollars more in line as to wear he wants to spend them, and to prepare for Leon and Connor. We saved 3.5m on the eberle trade. 900k went to Russell, presumably the rest will goto Leon.All this talk about trading picks, jp, etc makes no sense to me. Do we want to maybe win a cup this year and then be done? I would prefer to build a team that is a contender for the next decade.That takes work snd patience.

    I am not advocating for trading JP or all the picks. Oilers need value contracts with players who can contribute. That’s why the Reinhart miss was so painful.

    I do think though the the current action plan of keeping picks but trading your best other chips for less than full value then spending big on complementary free agents isn’t that well conceived.

    We shall see what happens when they settle on 97 and 29’s deals. If that means 93 goes for cap savings, etc., which seems likely.

  105. Captain Smarmy says:

    It does appear to me that PC has been moving out the pricey wingers and building down the middle. Something most of us advocate.

    Except for Lucic but my guess is PC saw him as an affordable luxury that can play but also provides a bunch of intangibles and clubhouse culture. Things we can’t really quantify.

    We also have Klefbom and Larsson signed to value deals that allow for a bit more spending on the second pair. With Sekera and Russell. I also think the Oilers have signed Russell to a deal where they can live with him on the 3rd pair if Nurse/Benning assert themselves and move up the ladder. I also believe he is movable.

    Russel is a strange one. I think he was a positive for he Oilers last year and will be again this year. Smart GMs like those on the Flames and Leafs did seem keen on signing him so perhaps there are metrics out there that show this player’s value and we’re just not getting the full view.

    Nuge might be the next cap casualty but that will only be the case if his game has plateaued. If he can get back to generating more offense then we have some great depth down the middle.

    I also believe the Oilers won’t spend much on the wings anymore except on 1 year deals. Vets signing to chase rings and entry level value contracts will be the order of the day on the wings.

  106. Ryan says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I am not advocating for trading JP or all the picks. Oilers need value contracts with players who can contribute. That’s why the Reinhart miss was so painful.

    I do think though the the current action plan of keeping picks but trading your best other chips for less than full value then spending big on complementary free agents isn’t that well conceived.

    We shall see what happens when they settle on 97 and 29’s deals. If that means 93 goes for cap savings, etc., which seems likely.

    It would appear that someone would agree with you. Chiarelli has a bad habit of trading players in their prime to free cap space then misuse that cap space.

    https://www.fanragsports.com/nhl/oilers/column-peter-chiarellis-winning-reputation-unearned/

  107. highgloveside says:

    Oilers will not be looking at Hanzal, they will want to play Draisaitl at center (thats why they will give him the big bucks) and spread the opposition thinner and give Nuge softer minutes. This puts Strome on RW and I expect them to look at another RW, hopefully Vrbata or Williams, Marleau would be great but he is talking 3 year term and no chance on a 38 year old.

    I would like to see the Oilers add Hainsey, he can play with Russel if Benning or Nurse are not doing well there, or he could be a great 3rd pairing guy. They will likely sign Gryba because they know what to expect from him and what they get is more than fine.

    I don’t expect (or even want) more than that until the deadline. Oilers still don’t know if their biggest weakness will be RW scoring depth or defensive depth, so wait until Christmas until you know and then look to fix it.

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