TOP 20 PROSPECTS, SUMMER 2017

The Edmonton Oilers entered the 2017 entry draft badly in need of skilled forwards. In the first round, the club grabbed Kailer Yamamoto and continued to add skill throughout day two. The result is a more balanced prospect list and a big step forward in the battle to establish a system that can feed quality players to the NHL team on demand. Long way to go, this weekend helped enormously.

THE RULES

  • Players over 50 games graduate
  • Players who have been traded no longer appear.
  • List is based on potential and gives zero weight to being close to NHL-ready.
  • Previous ranking in brackets (previous ranking is from Winter 2016)
  • This list likes offense.
  • This list also likes prospects who can make the NHL in more than one way.
  • This list punishes lack of speed. Hard. I mean really hard.

GRADUATES AND EXITS

  • (No. 3 on winter list) L Drake Caggiula. Finished 60gp, 7-11-18 as an Oilers rookie, plus 13gp, 3-0-3 in the playoffs.
  • (No. 4 on winter list) RD Matt Benning. Started well in the minors (6gp, 1-1-2) and then showed impressive range in the NHL (62gp, 3-12-15). Also went 12gp, 0-3-3 in the playoffs.
  • (No. 8 on winter list) R Anton Slepyshev. Spent a little time (9gp, 3-7-10) in Bakersfield before spending half the season (41gp, 4-6-10) with the Oilers. Impressive playoffs.
  • (No. 10 on winter list) R Tyler Pitlick. He is now a free agent but finally passed 50 NHL games to graduate as a prospect. Boxcars (31gp, 8-3-11) were beautiful.
  • (No. 13 on winter list) LD Griffin Reinhart. He played in one NHL game (playoffs) and has since been lost in the expansion draft.
  • (No. 23 on winter list) LD David Musil. In NHL circles, loaning a player is similar to cutting the cord. Speed is more important every season in the NHL game.
  • (No. 26 on winter list) LC Bogdan Yakimov. He is listed on elite prospects playing next season for Neftekhimik, and I think that signals the end of his association with the Oilers.
  • (No. 28 on winter list) L Mitch Moroz. Traded for Henrik Samuelsson later in the season.
  • (No. 34 on winter list) G Zack Nagelvoort. A promising draft day selection in 2014. Signed with Missouri of the ECHL as he turned pro this spring.
  • (No. 35 on winter list) LC Jere Sallinen. A disappointment because his offense was nonexistent on this side of the ocean. Pro scouts missed badly here.
  • (No. 40 on winter list) L Evan Campbell. One of the humorous things about the Oilers is their tendency to draft players, not sign them, but ink one of their undrafted teammates. So, we’ve been following Campbell forever and the team signs fellow UMass-Lowell forward Joe Gambardella instead.
  • (No. 41 on winter list) G Eetu Laurikainen. He signed in the days right after Peter Chiarelli took over, suspect the contract had already been agreed to and the shift occurred under his feet.

TOP 20 PROSPECTS, 2017 SUMMER

(Winter 2016 ranking in brackets)

  1. (1) R Jesse Puljujarvi. Posted 28gp, 1-7-8 in the NHL and 39gp, 12-16-28 in Bakersfield this season. JP wasn’t dominant in either league, but considering age (18) and usage (secondary role in AHL) the boxcars were satisfactory. All of his NHL assists were initial, he did well in possession and his AHL shots total (per game) aligned with Mikko Rantanen. He needs to have a productive offensive season in the NHL.
  2. (NR) R Kailer Yamamoto. Outstanding offensive potential in a small dynamite package. Yamamoto is a wizard with the puck and possesses great speed to go with it. Size is an issue but he’s been dealing with it (and flourishing) since putting on skates. His boxcars (65gp, 42-57-99) are fantastic. He was 28-20-48 at 5×5 this year, behind only Cody Glass among WHL players.
  3. (6) RD Ethan Bear. You could make a strong argument for Bear’s season as the best in the system (outside NHL). He ended up winning WHL Defenseman of the Year, posted 67gp, 28-42-70 and playoffs 17gp, 6-20-26. I am fairly certain he will need at least a year in the AHL to adjust to pro, we shouldn’t assume he’ll get power-play time as a rookie AHL blue.
  4. (7) LD Caleb Jones. Jones has blossomed into a complete defenseman, making him that rare player who defies his draft day scouting report. Delivered 63gp, 9-53-62 in regular year, plus 11gp, 2-8-10 in the postseason. He may be the best skater among defenders in the system and that’s a big advantage when hitting pro. He enters pro hockey in what is basically a tie with Ethan Bear for ‘most promising defender’ and it will be interesting to see who fares best in year one AHL.
  5. (2) L Tyler Benson. Went 33gp, 11-31-42 with the Vancouver Giants before being shut down once again due to injury. He is apparently healthy after surgery and heading to Team Canada (WJ) summer camp, which is encouraging. I do think the Oilers would have strongly considered choosing Kristian Vesalainen if the news on Benson had been worse. He is the top ranked LW in the system.
  6. (NR) R Ostap Safin. There were maybe 10 guys who I liked as offensive wingers outside the first round and damned if the Oilers got the very last one available. High risk-reward player he has size, speed and skill, question being how much and can he post impressive crooked numbers at higher levels. Can’t wait to see his numbers. 5gp, 1-3-4 at U18s, bitches!
  7. (9) LC Jujhar Khaira. He is so close to being an NHL regular but battled injury this season. Posted 27gp, 8-12-20 in the AHL, showing real offensive growth in his third pro season. Has now played in 27 NHL games, played 10 NHL games and scored a goal in 2016-17. A lock for the roster this fall, he is the top ranked center in the system at this time.
  8. (5) LD Ziyat Paigin. After his watershed 2015-16 season, expectations were raised for Paigin. It’s important to remember a lot of his offense comes from power-play time (he has a terrific shot) and that appears to have dried up in 2016-17. Went 17gp, 1-3-4 while battling injury and handling during his KHL season. Signed with the Oilers and finished 5gp, 0-0-0 in Bakersfield. We have to get this player surrounded (shutdown capabilities, massive wingspan, big shot, not a puck mover) and that will happen this coming year. He is not a trad puck mover but can pass effectively and is a solid defender with impressive wingspan.
  9. (NR) G Stuart Skinner. His .920SP at 17 was a great season but this past year was .905, meaning this ranking is based on things other than performance. The collective scouting verbal on Skinner is impressive (from various scouts and services I have read), he clearly represents the modern prototype. Organization is high on him, his frame and movement are a cut above. “Saw him good” gets him inside the top 10, lack of consistency keeps him from being ranked higher.
  10. (NR) L Kirill Maksimov. An intriguing player with (continuing a theme) some risk-reward attached to him. His combination of size, speed and skill immediately makes him one of the most impressive prospects in the system. His ability to protect the puck and win battles along the wall make him a Chiarelli type. I’m not terribly comfortable with the ranking because the reason for it (spike after trade) is a small sample size. However, he also had a strong U18’s and is a June 1999 so more room to grow.
  11. (20) G Dylan Wells. An amazing year for Wells, especially considering the disappointment of his previous campaign. Year over year save percentage progress (.871 to .916) was amazing and his playoff performance (.930) added to the strength of his season.
  12. (NR) LD Dmitri Samorukov. Two-way defender with good speed, mobility and he can move the puck. Improved over the course of the season as a defender but some chaos remains in his game. Has a hard shot, not yet the sum of his parts. Has a risk-reward resume somewhat similar to Safin. Pronman has him ranked and that is part of the reason Samorukov is inside the top 12.
  13. (NR) LC Joe Gambardella. A quality addition for the Oilers who may be a bigger piece of the puzzle than it initially appeared. He is an aggressive forechecker and turns that skill into offense off turnovers. With an NHLE of 82, 13-25-38, he might be the most NHL-ready of the forwards who have yet to play a big league game. His time is now, but his potential lands him here.
  14. (12) G Laurent Brossoit. My line in the sand for goalies to graduate is 25 games, and LB is at 15. He performed very well in the AHL (21gp, 2.67 .908) although his boxcars were harmed by some wobble during Christmas week. In the NHL, he played in eight games, going 1.99, .928 and (I believing) earning a full season as backup to Talbot. Played 28 minutes during the playoffs. I would estimate him as an NHL backup at this time, that is reflected in this ranking.
  15. (11) RD Filip Berglund. He spent the entire season in Sweden’s top league (SHL) and even posted some crooked numbers (49gp, 0-7-7). Berglund has expressed a desire to remain in Sweden next season, which makes sense (he is clearly going to play based on his handling this season). He remains a solid prospect in my mind, ranking reflects an improving prospect pool.
  16. (32) L Joey Laleggia. A revelation this season, especially with his move to LW mid-season. From Boxing Day forward, he went 43gp, 18-13-31. That works out to 16 goals NHLE for 82 games. That has value. He shoots like a maniac too (153 shots in 67 games) and that includes his time on defense. Big rise on this list, on merit. He deserves a long look in training camp.
  17. (14) G Nick Ellis. A strong first season of pro has Nick Ellis in the conversation for NHL employment. He posted superior numbers (34gp, 2.69 .918) to Brossoit and that came in Ellis’ debut season in the AHL. Although he is the fourth goalie listed here, not certain to me there is a massive gap between any of them. Ellis will improve rank by grabbing that AHL starting job and running with it.
  18. (15) RC Aapeli Rasanen. He had some injury problems this year, but performed well when healthy. One of the few noticeable Finns at the WJ’s, he played very well in the USHL (38gp, 7-18-25) and we can hope for progress at Boston College in the fall. He is progressing as a checking center with skill, speed being the one nervous item.
  19. (21) RD John Marino. A strong freshman season for Harvard has Marino’s stock on the rise. A mobile two-way defender, he showed slickness at both ends of the ice. His boxcars (35gp, 2-13-15) were very strong for a first-year college man and should spike as his usage increases over time.
  20. (NR) RD Ryan Mantha. He blossomed this year (65, 17-41-58) with the Niagara Ice Dogs and he’ll get a full AHL season in 2017-18. Important not to overreact to a 20-year old dominating junior, but if reports of improved development (foot speed) are true, the 6.05, 225 defender could be a real find.
  21. (16) LD William Lagesson. He signed with the Oilers, who promptly loaned the Swede to Djurgardens IF in Sweden. The key item for a DD is speed and Lagesson is fast and mobile. A little strange that he was sent to Sweden though, Oilers may have a value on him that is lower than some of the LHD prospects I have below him.
  22. (25) LD Jordan Oesterle. He has defensive holes, but the man can wheel. I hope the Oilers sign him. Went 44gp, 7-25-32 in the AHL and played a couple of NHL games. If you believe a player can improve defensive coverage this man is a good bet, because his foot speed will be NHL calibre for the next decade.
  23. (17) LD Dillon Simpson. Played in his first three NHL games this season and was quietly effective. He would be a solid first recall option out of Bakersfield, but the organization may want to bring in a defender with more potential. Has value as a first callup and may grow into a depth role.
  24. (30) L Graham McPhee. It would be easy to look at his boxcars (39gp, 2-8-10) and see him as shy offensively, but freshman forwards play sparingly for the big programs (Boston College). The most encouraging thing about him is that Corey Pronman liked him as a USHL player and I trust his opinion. Still, needs to score.
  25. (NR) G Shane Starrett. In his two NCAA seasons, he posted .924 and .925 save percentages, suggesting this is in fact his quality of play. At 22, he is a solid pro prospect. He’s tall and thin (6.05, 180), getting mighty crowded at his position.
  26. (19) RC Tyler Vesel. Enjoyed a breakout (39gp, 14-21-35) college season with Omaha. The numbers say he is emerging and the ranking reflects his season. It might be telling that the Oilers didn’t sign him this spring, perhaps they will sign a teammate (hey, they do it a lot!)
  27. (18) LD Markus Niemelainen. He had one of the most baffling seasons by an Oilers prospect in recent memory. His point total went from 27 to nine, but the reports I got about Niemelainen had him playing well, or at least well enough to make the dive in points mysterious. He has signed with HPK in the Sm-Liiga for next season and his stock has certainly fallen. Will the Oilers sign him?
  28. (NR) LC Skyler Brind’Amour. This is one of my favorite moves, the draft and follow. The evidence on Brind’Amour is razor thin, but the blood lines are quality and the bio on him (responsible player) interesting. Not much tape on him, complete wild card but a good risk late in the draft. Described as a 200-foot player, he could rise up on this list in a quick hurry.
  29. (29) L Aidan Muir. Went 20gp, 2-9-11 for Western Michigan this season, suffered a hand injury that derailed him. He is 6.04, 212 and has one more year of college eligibility. His NHLE (18.5) suggests he may have pro-level offense, we may see him in Bakersfield come spring.
  30. (NR) RD Phil Kemp. He sounds like a classic shutdown prospect, with shot blocking and defensive positioning among his bullet points. Good skater, defense first, 6.03 and 201. Miles to go and he is a 1999 so is just getting started.
  31. (31) LD Ben Betker. Big man (6.06, 228) played for Bakersfield (mostly) this winter, going 30gp, 1-5-6 and playing a depth role. Had a good EV GF-GA ratio, will be interesting to see what role he plays this coming season.
  32. (33) R Greg Chase. Went 48gp, 3-11-14 this season, his first full season in the AHL. He has now played 76 games for Bakersfield, posting 5-18-23. Chase has talent but this final year of his entry-level contract has to count.
  33. (36) R Patrick Russell. In looking at his overall numbers first season pro (68gp, 8-9-17) there is disappointment. However, he shoots the puck a lot (150 shots, 2.21 a game) and the Oilers need to cultivate those players. I am looking forward to his second season.
  34. (27) RC Kyle Platzer.  He has not progressed through two pro seasons and time is running out for him in the organization. Needs to establish himself as a regular in the AHL and hasn’r been able to do it through two seasons.
  35. (24) LD Matthew CairnsCairns started in the USHL but wasn’t playing enough, so zipped over to the BCHL,where he posted 18gp, 2-14-16. He is big, got flagged for speed in some of his draft day scouting reports and has a big shot but scored two goals all year. Fell sharply on my list and will need to recover from what was a difficult season.
  36. (37) RD Vincent Desharnais. It is difficult to get much information on players like Desharnais (college men who play a defensive style) but what we read about him this season was solid. I’m not sure when he plans to turn pro but tracking him is going to be an exercise in frustration during his NCAA time.
  37. (38) L Joey Benik. He is not an NHL contract, but is an interesting player because of his scoring ability. Went 21gp, 4-1-5 at the AHL level and was quality in the ECHL. I don’t think he gets an NHL contract but interesting player.
  38. (NR) L Evan Polei. An AHL contract, his size and skill (6.02, 227 and 33 goals) are intriguing. Good hands, speed the issue and we’ll see in a year. He was a quality junior.
  39. (NR) R Dave Gust, Ohio State (NCAA). He is 23, 5.10, 174 and had a big college season (39gp, 18-23-41). AHL contract.
  40. (NR)  R Chad Butcher. Small winger with range of skills, good offense. He is an AHL contract for 2017-18. Speed main weapon, he posted more than 100 points this year.
  41. (39) L Braden Christoffer. Signed in a training camp fever, Christoffer has been unable to score enough (49gp, 5-3-8) or get enough playing time (9:06). Has to be a great experience for him an earning an NHL contract is a dream.
  42. (NR) R Henrik Samuelsson. Acquired in the Mitchell Moroz deal, he is RFA and they basically shut him down five games into his Bakersfield career. Not  a good sign.

BY POSITION

  • Goal: 5
  • Left Defense: 9
  • Right Defense: 6
  • Center: 6
  • Left Wing: 8
  • Right Wing: 8

We are approaching balance here in the prospect pool, strongest positions at first blush would appear to be RW, LD, Goal. Edmonton needs LW’s (despite the number here) and puck-moving defenders of any stripe. One of the things we’ll talk about moving forward is Edmonton’s large group of defensemen best described as two-way or shutdown types. No Torey Krug yet!

NHLE’S FOR THE NEWLY MINTED PROSPECTS!

  1. Kailer Yamamoto 36.2
  2. Ostap Safin 17.8
  3. Kirill Maksimov 14.2
  4. Dmitri Samorukov 7.3
  5. Phil Kemp 3.5
  6. Skyler Brind’Amour 2.8

We are now years past the player type who has significant skating issues, haven’t seen one of those fellows since about 2012. Edmonton does take defensemen who can skate but have shy offense and that continued this season. As always, it is very difficult to assess these talents and put them in order the day after they are drafted, I’ll suggest we will have a much better idea about the new arrivals when we meet again in December for the winter Top 20. Expect Jesse Puljujarvi, Jujhar Khaira and Laurent Brossoit to graduate by Christmas.

One final note: I don’t think this list is complete. We could still see a trade or two and they might involve a prospect coming in or heading out. And there are still college kids to sign. I will update when those things occur. Thanks for reading!

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148 Responses to "TOP 20 PROSPECTS, SUMMER 2017"

  1. 106 and 106 says:

    Read this every day, all day. Harvest Moon, and the run up to it, should win a Pulitzer.

  2. mr sakich says:

    nice work, thank you

    I am surprised Mantha is so low. I would have had him at 8

  3. trencan says:

    Dont you guys know the 4 names PC was talking about Oilers were ineterested in first round of the draft?

  4. Lowetide says:

    trencan:
    Dont you guys know the 4 names PC was talking about Oilers were ineterested in first round of the draft?

    I’ll guess Yamamoto, Vesalainen, Norris and Tolvanen.

  5. Westchester Oil says:

    LT- Kudos to you for getting this list out the day after the draft.

    I think it will be interesting to see whether JP or Yamamoto gets more points in their NHL careers. I think I would lean to Yamamoto (p.s. we need to come up with a nickname for him).

  6. stush18 says:

    Nice job on the draft LT. I was surprised they took another goalie, but I suppose if they like the guy why not.

    Of course it wouldn’t be right if I didn’t quibble with you over your rankings, so here it is. Lol

    I would have swapped wells and skinner. Wells has improved while skinner declined, simple as that. Next year might be different, but as of right now I think wells looks stronger based on the numbers. Should Ben in the running for team Canada’s goalie too.

    While I don’t know much about Samorukov, I would have switched him with berglund. Some scouts I talked to say this kid is very underrated and should have made swedens junior team last year.

    Finally, I think Vesel is kind of low, no? For a team that has nothing for organizational centres below the NHL, I think he should have value. That’s a quality season, and he has another year still. I think he has more potential than rasanen. We’ll wait till next years college season is done, but rasanens USHL season did not impress me.

  7. Mike says:

    A real pleasure LT!! Can’t thank you enough. You have helped me continue to keep my head above water through the most difficult time in my life. You let me escape. Thank you sir. Sincerely

  8. Clarkenstein says:

    Wow, it sure is obvious how thin the talent pool is in the organization when five of the top twelve prospects in your list were drafted this weekend!! I would just cut loose everybody that isn’t in the top 30 and start fresh with signing undrafted kids. The cupboard is absolutely bare!

  9. Lowetide says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Wow, it sure is obvious how thin the talent pool is in the organization when five of the top twelve prospects in your list were drafted this weekend!! I would just cut loose everybody that isn’t in the top 30 and start fresh with signing undrafted kids. The cupboard is absolutely bare!

    Agree completely, one of the reasons why I don’t think the Oilers could make the same kind of offer for Hamonic as the Flames did yesterday. The scouting staff has to draft well and PC needs to sign college men just to stay afloat.

  10. treevojo says:

    Lowetide: Agree completely, one of the reasons why I don’t think the Oilers could make the same kind of offer for Hamonic as the Flames did yesterday. The scouting staff has to draft well and PC needs to sign college men just to stay afloat.

    Looking at the flames talent pool I don’t think they should have made that trade either.

    They are destined to be Edmonton’s punching bag for the next decade.

    Makes me happy.

  11. DBO says:

    Gotta say I loved the draft. Love they took high end offensive midget regardless of size. Skating and running beside McDavid means this kid could be here sooner rather then later. Goalies are voodoo, but they liked him and got him so I’m fine with it. And the rest of the draft went for skill and size, no skating issues. Breath of fresh air.

    So based on how our college guys did last year and the prominent roles they played in the NHL, I expect that puts us on good footing with most.

    Is there a RD out of college that be our newest addition like Benning ? I would expect that any college RD could look at our roster and see a chance to play in NHL this year. How about mid UFAs RD?

    So if they signed Foo, Franson and a college RD would we feel better about Russell?

    One note on Russell. Limited no trade in year 3-4 means he could be dealt this or next year. Not saying they do, but if Nurse passes him, and a RD fills better, then no reason a team like Vegas, who had interest, wouldn’t look at him. Who knows what handshake esque deals happen. Vegas gets get captain material veteran, we get a pending UFA from their stable of dmen. It could happen by deadline or next off season. So I am totally good with the Russell deal cause it provides us flexibility and real NHL players without blowing our cap. i believe this is one year of Russell, then a trade. Either to Vegas or a better team if Russell steps up and plays really well. This deal just made sure Edmonton controlled the asset and had safety this coming season with a Player the coach trusts. And Russell ensured he didn’t get left without a deal so he got security for his family knowing he is probably gone next year.

  12. Lowetide says:

    treevojo: Looking at the flames talent pool I don’t think they should have made that trade either.

    They are destined to be Edmonton’s punching bag for the next decade.

    Makes me happy.

    Agreed on that, too. Flames do have a strong defense now, but I’m not in love with their choice of goalie (again). They will be more formidable next season though, suspect CGY has a better team for 2017-18 idling in the driveway currently.

  13. npanciroli says:

    DBO,

    If they grabbed Franson I would feel much more comfortable going into next year. And keep an eye on a vet RW also.

    Don’t think Hamonic was the answer, between cost, his previous years and knee injuries too much risk (risk which we already took on Russell but only cost cap).

  14. npanciroli says:

    LT and all the people who share their knowledge. Really loved following and reading through the draft the last couple of days. For someone who really doesn’t know anything about prospects loved the insight and reactions. Thanks!

  15. treevojo says:

    Lowetide: Agreed on that, too. Flames do have a strong defense now, but I’m not in love with their choice of goalie (again). They will be more formidable next season though, suspect CGY has a better team for 2017-18 idling in the driveway currently.

    Hamonic has averaged 3.7 goals over 7 seasons in the NHL.

    I am glad we kept our draft picks.

    Giordano is going to be 34 and his clock is ticking.

    Next year is Calgary’s best chance at competing with the Oilers for the length of Mcdavids contract.

    Also we have Mcdavid so I still highly doubt Calgary can overcome that.

  16. StixMalone says:

    I suspect Calgary hoped to get Russel. Once we signed him they were in scramble mode for a D. Suspect Edmonton couldn’t or wouldn’t do a deal for Ebs +and Strome +Hamonic. Might turn out better for us if Chia has something up his sleeve?…,

  17. jm363561 says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Wow, it sure is obvious how thin the talent pool is in the organization when five of the top twelve prospects in your list were drafted this weekend!! I would just cut loose everybody that isn’t in the top 30 and start fresh with signing undrafted kids. The cupboard is absolutely bare!

    This situation has been created, in large part, by the Reinhart trade, a slow start by JP, Benson’s injury, and the loss of picks for employing Chia and TMac, (offset to some degree by Benning, in particular, and Caggiula – for which we give multiple hosannas).

    Re Hamonic, it was reported four teams, including Toronto and Dallas, baulked at two first round picks – Calgary got no bargain with a first and two seconds and must be praying for a bounce back year from him. Interesting to see early opinion on the trade is negative. Russell for 4 x $4m, or Hamonic (a dreadful 49 3-11-14, -21) for 3 x $3.9m + a first and two seconds. I go with KR fwiw.

    Finally, thanks as always LT for the superb coverage.

  18. Brantford Boy says:

    Great work on the draft LT, really appreciate the hours you spend for us to scan and research. Been a busy few days since the first round I need to sit down and see where all those players ended up (Lind, Gadjovich etc.). I only had enough time to see the headlines on Hamonic yesterday, seems a steep price given our depth charts but he would have been a good fit.

  19. Brantford Boy says:

    Westchester Oil:
    LT- Kudos to you for getting this list out the day after the draft.

    I think it will be interesting to see whether JP or Yamamoto gets more points in their NHL careers. I think I would lean to Yamamoto (p.s. we need to come up with a nickname for him).

    Miyagi?

  20. Woogie63 says:

    This year’s Yamamoto stage picture has no Lowe, MacTavish or Howson in it AND PC is right next to the shinny new toy.

    The new sheriff is completely in charge.

  21. Scungilli Slushy says:

    StixMalone:
    I suspect Calgary hoped to get Russel. Once we signed him they were in scramble mode for a D. Suspect Edmonton couldn’t or wouldn’t do a deal for Ebs +and Strome +Hamonic. Might turn out better for us if Chia has something up his sleeve?…,

    True, we won’t really know until the season starts. We’ll have a tell on July 1st. If nothing happens then, we probably see a third pairing guy or two acquired at some point, they need more depth. They have no experienced injury insurance, and D get injured. As it stands

    Klef Larsson
    Russell Benning
    Nurse ?
    ? Fayne

  22. Richard S.S. says:

    $18.75 Million is effectively 25% of the Cap. The signings of McDavid and Draisaitl must not exceed this number. If the numbers are exceeded Edmonton becomes Chicago North.

  23. wheatnoil says:

    Absolutely beautiful work as always LT. Parenting a 6 week old has kept me off the comments section lately but I try to catch up at 2am when the boy is drifting off. Your prospect/draft work remains second to none even if we got a bit less of it this year on account of that whole weird playoffs thing.

  24. treevojo says:

    jm363561: This situation has been created, in large part, by the Reinhart trade, a slow start by JP, Benson’s injury, and the loss of picks for employing Chia and TMac, (offset to some degree by Benning, in particular, and Caggiula – for which we give multiple hosannas).

    Re Hamonic, it was reported four teams, including Toronto and Dallas, baulked at two first round picks – Calgary got no bargain with a first and two seconds and must be praying for a bounce back year from him. Interesting to see early opinion on the trade is negative. Russell for 4 x $4m, or Hamonic (a dreadful 49 3-11-14, -21) for 3 x $3.9m + a first and two seconds. I go with KR fwiw.

    Finally, thanks as always LT for the superb coverage.

    Just read that snow turned down Van reimsdyck and 2018 1st for hamonic.

    Looks like Snow didn’t want any salary in return.

  25. Woogie63 says:

    StixMalone:
    I suspect Calgary hoped to get Russel. Once we signed him they were in scramble mode for a D. Suspect Edmonton couldn’t or wouldn’t do a deal for Ebs +and Strome +Hamonic. Might turn out better for us if Chia has something up his sleeve?…,

    This right. Russell then Hamonic on a stack rank.

    A “neighbor” in the know has told me the Flames are not completely happy with Hamilton, the recent play-offs added to their concerns.

  26. McSorley33 says:

    I would have preferred The 2 C’s that went just ahead of Yamamoto, but I am really happy with the picks, save for the goalie.

    The Yamamoto kid has factors that I love that,imo, mitigate his size.

    First, and most importantly, blazing speed.

    Second, the fight in the dog.

    Finally, Dedication by being a Combine monster!!

    The other picks are great plays on value…so much so that it feels awkward almost.

    As always, Outstanding work LT.

    Interesting question, besides Nashville and Anaheim, what team would have the best top 4 in the NHL?

  27. Richard S.S. says:

    I don’t expect Sekara back before a full nine months away, if then. The Oilers could move up Benning to play with Russell, but if he doesn’t succeed the Oilers have no alternatives. Mark Fayne will be on the Roster because of Cap limitations. They might fill the other vacancy inhouse, but if they think they need an upgrade anything is possible.

  28. Rich M says:

    Lowetide: Agree completely, one of the reasons why I don’t think the Oilers could make the same kind of offer for Hamonic as the Flames did yesterday. The scouting staff has to draft well and PC needs to sign college men just to stay afloat.

    I think some of the folks that are complaining the loudest right now about the defense are missing this point.

    The lack of depth in the prospect pool and the next contract for McDavid and Drai are huge and can’t be underestimated.

    It’s also why Nurse and Benning weren’t traded either.

    We really don’t have the prospect depth needed to sustain things without those picks coming into the system now.

    Also, really have to wonder about the coaching this year in Bakersfield. Do you think whoever it is (Fleming or someone else) has been told in no uncertain terms to give the kids a prominent role? Time to develop versus the preference to give too much time to AHL vets IMO.

  29. Richard S.S. says:

    I live in Lethbridge, the Goalie was a fine pick. Apparently the Oilers agree.

  30. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Lowetide,

    Lowetide: Agreed on that, too. Flames do have a strong defense now, but I’m not in love with their choice of goalie (again). They will be more formidable next season though, suspect CGY has a better team for 2017-18 idling in the driveway currently.

    Agreed. Acquiring a 35 year old goalie for a younger team is not smart. If the flames have a bad season that Hamonic 1st rounder could come back to haunt them. Is it lottery protected?

  31. prairieschooner says:

    Glad to see the Oilers acquire some good prospects it is so important for the salary cap in years to come.
    Do you think the Oilers would be interested in Shane Doan maybe on a 2 year deal it could give him a chance at a cup and give the Oil a filler until JP matures

  32. Philosophil says:

    wheatnoil:
    Absolutely beautiful work as always LT. Parenting a 6 week old has kept me off the comments section lately but I try to catch up at 2am when the boy is drifting off. Your prospect/draft work remains second to none even if we got a bit less of it this year on account of that whole weird playoffs thing.

    Ya that wierd playoff thing…messed up so many longstanding routines!

  33. anjinsan says:

    We now have a mini-Barzal, but it would have been better to have Barzal himself.

  34. Brantford Boy says:

    Mother Chucker!!! Vancouver got both of them – Lind and Gadjovich… Fark! I must say since the trade for Schneider and getting the 9th for Horvat in 2013, I have been most impressed by the Canucks scouting, which is not on the GM, he’s an idiot! I was also hoping for Cale Fleury (RD) in the 3rd round despite the +/-.

  35. blainer says:

    Chia’s work is not complete.

    Expect e decent depth 4/5 D to be acquired either through UFA or Vegas.

    Expect a Derek Ryan signing or something similar for the faceoff issues, and maybe a rw/c.

    I expect all or any combination of these to happen by this time next week.

  36. McNuge93 says:

    Just wondering what the rationale of rating Skinner ahead of Wells?

  37. Glass says:

    Suspect Calgary will have the better team next year, but the year after we’ll be contenders. Suspect Nurse & Benning will comfortably be able to take on 2nd pairing duties, Puljujarvi will have an impact, and perhaps Benson becomes a serviceable top 9 LW.

    Don’t mind the Eberle trade, as I think it’s a good idea to make a bet on Strome. Could he be a serviceable 3C, or develop chemistry with one of our top 6 centers? If not, he only has one year on his contract so I’m not worried. Can’t help but think there might have been a trade with Florida who depleted their wing depth by losing Marchesseult and Smith. Perhaps an Eberle for Pysyk or Petrovic would have been plausible.

    Happy with the Yamamoto pick, but I’m predicting he will be compared to Vesalainen throughout his career by Oiler fans. Less so Tolvanen & Kostin as they took massive drops.

  38. Lowetide says:

    Craig Custance‏Verified account @CraigCustance 2h2 hours ago
    More
    The Spencer Foo camp getting together on Monday to weigh his options. Red Wings and Flames very much in it. Decision likely Mon or Tue.

  39. Ryan says:

    Richard S.S.:
    I don’t expect Sekara back before a full nine months away, if then.The Oilers could move up Benning to play with Russell, but if he doesn’t succeed the Oilers have no alternatives.Mark Fayne will be on the Roster because of Cap limitations.They might fill the other vacancy inhouse, but if they think they need an upgrade anything is possible.

    There’s always the potential for so-called sophomore slump, but Benning had one heck of a season last year.

    Both the Wowy’s and Woodmoney’s absolutely loved Matt Benning’s last season with the Oilers.

    He played 31% of his time vs the elites (Larson 35%, Nurse 24%).

    His CF% and DFF% vs elites was 50.7 and 50.2 respectively.

    Conversely, Larsson was our next best at 47.10 and 48.5.

    Wow.

    Away from McDavid he was the only player on the team who played regularly who stayed on the positive side of the ledger for both GF% 58.3 and CF% 51.6.

    Wow.

  40. Lowetide says:

    McNuge93:
    Just wondering what the rationale of rating Skinner ahead of Wells?

    Both men are (imo) potential starters in the NHL, both men have uneven track records. Wells had a quality bounce back season in 2016-17, but Skinner’s low ebb is still superior to Wells.Ironically both men struggedin their draft season and I do wonder if the fact they were under the microscope impacted them. The other thing, and it’s quite prevalent, is the verbal from scouting services on Skinner. Highly regarded.

    Don’t think there’s a massive difference between them and things could switch at Christmas.

  41. Edmonton_fan says:

    I only see one; maybe two of our top 10 prospects able to play in the NHL this season. So while our cupboards have potential – it is for two years down the road. So we pray to the Injury Gods for another season…

  42. Soup Fascist says:

    Lowetide:
    Craig Custance‏Verified account @CraigCustance2h2 hours ago
    MoreThe Spencer Foo camp getting together on Monday to weigh his options. Red Wings and Flames very much in it. Decision likely Mon or Tue.

    Does that infer the Oilers are very much out of it?

  43. russ99 says:

    Lowetide:
    Craig Custance‏Verified account @CraigCustance2h2 hours ago
    MoreThe Spencer Foo camp getting together on Monday to weigh his options. Red Wings and Flames very much in it. Decision likely Mon or Tue.

    Lol, was just going to ask this.

    I hope we land Foo, but it’s important that we don’t guarantee NHL time, were out of the gifting prospects a spot business. Everyone on that roster has to earn it.

    Before the usual July 1 insanity, we have a few things on our agenda:

    Draisaitl/McDavid negotiations

    Try to reap Kassian at a club-friendly figure.

    Figure out what to do with Pouliot – trade/bury/buy out

    Qualifing offers to RFAs we want to keep: Laleggia is probably the only sure thing, not sure on Simpson, but the low count on the 50 man may get him back.

    Offers to UFAs we want to keep: Oesterle and Pitlick, not sure if either will be back

  44. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    Craig Custance‏Verified account @CraigCustance2h2 hours ago
    MoreThe Spencer Foo camp getting together on Monday to weigh his options. Red Wings and Flames very much in it. Decision likely Mon or Tue.

    Why am I feeling a sense of Deja Versteeg, uh, I mean Deja Vu?

  45. trencan says:

    Interesting question, besides Nashville and Anaheim, what team would have the best top 4 in the NHL?

    I personally like the future of defense in Carolina and CBJ. I also believe in 2/3 years if everything goes right direction, Oilers may have above averege defense:

    Klefbom Larsson
    Nurse Bear
    Sekera Benning
    Jones

  46. McSorley33 says:

    McNuge93,

    Talbot is the starter….

    Brossoit had a .928 as a backup in the NHL.

    We have Mr. Wells….

    So the need at Goalie was….

  47. rickithebear says:

    LT:
    You idenfifying scout influence in some rankings.
    I thought i would look at Bmacs and the average for the scout influenced rankings
    Player – Bmac – avg of all scout influenced
    Pick 22 yamamotto – #24 – #22
    Pick 78 Skinner – #71 – #71
    Pick 84 Samurokov – #76 – #69
    Pick 115 Safin – #51 – #50
    Pick 146 Maksimov – #98 – #97
    Pick 177 Brindamour – NR – NR
    Pick 208 Kemp – NR – NR

    Geting Safin is like getting our 2nd round pick back

  48. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! I forgot about Paigin. Really if any of Paigin Osterle or Simpson are going to crack the D corps here, this is the season.

    – Russel, does he partner with Nurse or Benning? Small samples sizes: 58mins with Benning, 33 with Nures. Or do you keep Nurse Benning together, and Russel plays with a vet, or one of aforementioned D trying to break in. I’d hope they get a Kulikov type on a 1 year show-me

    – Basically they need another new Russel: vet willing to take a 1 year deal IMO, or rely on the rooks, which I hope they don’t talk themselves into…

    *edit: and Fayne: guy was top-4 in NJ, albeit with great partner

  49. Soup Fascist says:

    russ99: Lol, was just going to ask this.

    I hope we land Foo, but it’simportant that we don’t guarantee NHL time, were out of the gifting prospects a spot business. Everyone on that roster has to earn it.

    Before the usual July 1 insanity, we have a few things on our agenda:

    Draisaitl/McDavid negotiations

    Try to reap Kassian at a club-friendly figure.

    Figure out what to do with Pouliot – trade/bury/buy out

    Qualifing offers to RFAs we want to keep: Laleggia is probably the only sure thing, not sure on Simpson, but the low count on the 50 man may get him back.

    Offers to UFAs we want to keep: Oesterle and Pitlick, not sure if either will be back

    Is Pouliot “done”. There were points in his Oilers tenure where he was very effective. Had zero puck luck last year.

    So assuming he can’t be moved, is he a bounce back player or does the narrative that he wears out his welcome with teams after a year or two, hold true?

    As LT would say, hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

  50. russ99 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT! I forgot about Paigin.Really if any of Paigin Osterle or Simpson are going to crack the D corps here, this is the season.

    – Russel, does he partner with Nurse or Benning?Small samples sizes: 58mins with Benning, 33 with Nures.Or do you keep Nurse Benning together, and Russel plays with a vet, or one of aforementioned D trying to break in.I’d hope they get a Kulikov type on a 1 year show-me

    – Basically they need another new Russel: vet willing to take a 1 year deal IMO, or rely on the rooks, which I hope they don’t talk themselves into…

    Russell – Benning seems obvious right now, Russell on his better left side.

    Let’s see next 6 weeks brings.

  51. JDI says:

    Ryan: Why am I feeling a sense of Deja Versteeg, uh, I mean Deja Vu?

    Maybe it’s Deja Foo?

  52. McNuge93 says:

    McSorley33:
    McNuge93,

    Talbot is the starter….

    Brossoit had a .928 as a backup in the NHL.

    We have Mr. Wells….

    So the need at Goalie was….

    And we also have Ellis. But I guess you always need prospects especially with the long timeline for goalies. Wells is far from a sure thing so you need multiple options.

  53. russ99 says:

    Soup Fascist: Is Pouliot “done”. There were points in his Oilers tenure where he was very effective. Had zero pick luck last year.

    So assuming he can’t be moved, is he a bounce back player or does the narrative that he wears out his welcome with teams after a year or two, hold true?

    As LT would say, hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

    Reports from the MSM in the know was that they tried to move him all last year.

    We couldn’t get Vegas to take him.

    We couldn’t deal him for a lesser pick at the draft.

    His cap space is the easiest removed to add what we need to finalize the roster and still pay for Draisaitl.

    Writing on the wall.

  54. Soup Fascist says:

    Ryan: Why am I feeling a sense of Deja Versteeg, uh, I mean Deja Vu?

    Deja Foo.

    Edit: Day late / dollar short …. as per usual.

  55. theres oil in virginia says:

    Glass: Don’t mind the Eberle trade, as I think it’s a good idea to make a bet on Strome. Could he be a serviceable 3C, or develop chemistry with one of our top 6 centers? If not, he only has one year on his contract so I’m not worried.

    Seems to me that both teams sold low. Isles get the better player, Oilers get the player they have more control over (lower cap hit, RFA, etc).

    Eberle could still really explode, but the trend doesn’t suggest it.

  56. JDI says:

    Soup Fascist: as per usual.

    It was still brilliant.

  57. Soup Fascist says:

    russ99: Reports from the MSM in the know was that they tried to move him all last year.

    We couldn’t get Vegas to take him.

    We couldn’t deal him for a lesser pick at the draft.

    His cap space is the easiest removed to add what we need to finalize the roster and still pay for Draisaitl.

    Writing on the wall.

    I agree they WANT him gone – but as it seems he can’t be easily moved, is there a chance he becomes a contributor again?

  58. Soup Fascist says:

    JDI: It was still brilliant.

    Thanks for not being Foo-rious that I inadvertently rode your coat tails.

    …. and I will show myself out.

  59. Chris says:

    As it stands we enter the next season with either a gaping hole at 1st line right wing or we need a third line centre. How they intend to use Draisaddle is really going to dictate to some extent what they need to find over the summer. I can say I think it would be the height of folly to enter the season with the right wing depth chart as Strome, Slephy, JP in the top three spots, That’s a whole lot of inexperience and question marks.

  60. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    LT: Superb stuff!! I consider what Trevling did, similiar to Bergervin in MTL at the trade deadline. MTL needed scoring deserately, and Bergervin brought in 3 fourth line players and a 4/5 D man. Not surprisingly, they got knocked out quickly. I think the Flames biggest issue last year was their lack of scoring. Outside of Johhny and Monny; they didn’t have consistent point producers. Sam Bennett may or ma not be a 2nd line center. Getting Hamonic is OK, but they really needed a 2nd line scorer; so there biggest need has not been addressed.

    With Wells and Ellis in the System, did you think the Skinner pick was neccessary? Skinner’s reg season stats weren’t great, BUT he was excellent in the playoffs. Really Good. I watched him every game. he’s got the potential and his on Team Canada’s radar; so he will be given every opportunity to progress.

    With Gambardella, any chance he cracks the lineup as 4LW this year?

    the prospect pipeline may not be excellent, but we also should remember that McD, Drai, Nurse are all high picks that have graduated and a couple of our college signings played NHL right away (benning / cagguila) … I am glad PC kept the pick at 22 and is committed to getting a strong draft and development system in place … The Oilers need 9 new contracts after this year, to important pieces (McD, Strome, Maroon, Cagguila, Sleppy, Nurse, Benning, Brossiart). So we are going to need players that can step in on ELC contracts. I double PC can sign all these guys???

    Love your insight. Your work is Top Notch… and the comments.

  61. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    russ99,

    I think it’ll depend on who they pickup for that final LD/RD spot.

    If they sign an FA dman (Gryba, Franson etc) then you have some flexibility and can alter use based on games and game flow.

    If they go internal then I think you’ll have Russell playing 3rd pair breaking in someone until a specific game or turn of events dictate otherwise. The leftorium is still a thing at the top of the Oilers dman prospect pool and I dunno how much slack you can expect a Nurse-Russell or Rookie – Benning setup to take against top flight teams.

    After last year I think the coaching staff are expecting to have their two top pairings emerge full time and it’ll be up to Nurse-Benning to seize that role. If they come into training camp and adjust well I think you give them a 2nd pairing shot. The first month of next season isn’t too crammed, will have a bunch of practice time and offers a good mix of opponents. Gives the team lots of flexibility if they play well.

    I don’t think there is a hope in hell that Fayne can claim a spot unless he figured out how to skate faster even though he fills a need based on handedness and by accounts can play NHL hockey.

  62. jtblack says:

    McSorley33,

    “Interesting question, besides Nashville and Anaheim, what team would have the best top 4 in the NHL?”

    Calgary is pretty solid now. I think Gio is trending down and Hamilton is inconsistent. But still a Solid Top 4. Ottawa? Carolina has a tremendous stable of young D men. They will prob have to move one. Philly pretty solid young players too

  63. jtblack says:

    McNuge93,

    “Talbot is the starter….

    Brossoit had a .928 as a backup in the NHL.

    We have Mr. Wells….

    So the need at Goalie w”

    I don’t really get the pick either. Brossiot 24, Ellis 23, Starrett 22, Wells 19, Skinner 19. If you have too many at one position I think you can block the development of others. But between East Coast and AHL, maybe there is enough spots to properly develop these guys and HOPE one can replace Talbot in 3 or 4 years ..

  64. Bag of Pucks says:

    Thanks so much for all the prospects info LT. I would call it work, but I suspect it’s a labour of love : )

    One thing I like about the pool is it continues a strength of Chiarelli’s in Boston, which is to make goaltending depth an organizational strength. This can create a lot of valuable trade chips that can be leveraged to address roster gaps elsewhere. Both Anaheim and Washington do this as well and I think it’s a shrewd gameplan. Teams will pay through the nose when they badly need a legitimate starter.

  65. Soup Fascist says:

    Chris:
    As it stands we enter the next season with either a gaping hole at 1st line right wing or we need a third line centre. How they intend to use Draisaddle is really going to dictate to some extent what they need to find over the summer. I can say I think it would be the height of folly to enter the season with the right wing depth chart as Strome, Slephy, JP in the top three spots, That’s a whole lot of inexperience and question marks.

    Every year there seems to be a journeyman thirty something scorer available as a UFA on the cheap as the chairs seem to fill up. Marleau, Vrbata, Vanek, Williams (though he won’t be cheap), Jagr (40 something) Sharp (injured ?), Stafford, Iginla (done?), Doan (done +?) are a few.

    The point is there will be a guy or two at the end of the line willing to sign a one year deal who could score in the right environment – potentially playing with McD if Drai is C. Picking the right one is the trick.

    Even though he is a left shot I would take a run at Marleau. Still can shoot a puck, take the odd draw and the boots have not left him entirely.

  66. Blackwolf says:

    Regarding goalies. There is no heir apparent to Talbot as of yet. Until someone really grabs the reins, you need to keep filling the prospect pool to increase the odds.

  67. rickithebear says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT! I forgot about Paigin.Really if any of Paigin Osterle or Simpson are going to crack the D corps here, this is the season.

    – Russel, does he partner with Nurse or Benning?Small samples sizes: 58mins with Benning, 33 with Nures.Or do you keep Nurse Benning together, and Russel plays with a vet, or one of aforementioned D trying to break in.I’d hope they get a Kulikov type on a 1 year show-me

    – Basically they need another new Russel: vet willing to take a 1 year deal IMO, or rely on the rooks, which I hope they don’t talk themselves into…

    Russel – larson (1st comp) 1.83 EVGA
    Klefbom – Larsson (1st comp) 2.24
    Sekera – Russell (2nd comp) 1.29
    Klefbom – Russell (2 nd comp) 2.68
    Klefbom – benning (2nd) 2.28

  68. Chris says:

    Soup Fascist: Every year there seems to be a journeyman thirty something scorer available as a UFA on the cheap as the chairs seem to fill up. Marleau, Vrbata, Vanek, Williams (though he won’t be cheap), Jagr (40 something) Sharp (injured ?), Stafford, Iginla (done?), Doan (done +?) are a few.

    The point is there will be a guy or two at the end of the line willing to sign a one year deal who could score in the right environment – potentially playing with McD if Drai is C. Picking the right one is the trick.

    Even though he is a left shot I would take a run at Marleau. Still can shoot a puck, take the odd draw and the boots have not left him entirely.

    The options at RW are not inspiring. Did Radulov resign in Montreal yet? I don’t think with Oshy resigning that there are really any other legitimate top line RWers out there on the right side of 35. Hanzal and possibly the return of Samwise for a second act are options at centre.

  69. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack:
    McNuge93,

    “Talbot is the starter….

    Brossoit had a .928 as a backup in the NHL.

    We have Mr. Wells….

    So the need at Goalie w”

    I don’t really get the pick either. Brossiot 24, Ellis 23, Starrett 22, Wells 19, Skinner 19.If you have too many at one position I think you can block the development of others.But between East Coast and AHL, maybe there is enough spots to properly develop these guys and HOPE one can replace Talbot in 3 or 4 years ..

    In two years all these guys might be long gone. Goalies don’t seem that hard to get until you really need one and then goalering becomes everything. I’m very curious to follow the Flames season that hangs by a thread that is Mike Smiths groin.

  70. leadfarmer says:

    Soup Fascist: Deja Foo.

    Edit: Day late / dollar short …. as per usual.

    He’s dragged this thing out so long that I think he’s going to make some enemies

  71. Chris says:

    Bonino and Connolly are guys I’d also expect they will give some consideration to. Bonino might be had for around 3 million and would add depth down the middle. Connolly is only 25 scored 18 goals last year and has been acquired by Chia in the past.

  72. jtblack says:

    Soup Fascist,
    “Every year there seems to be a journeyman thirty something scorer available as a UFA ”
    +1
    Same thing was said last year. people were panicking. We lost yak and then Versteeg left. But guess, what? wingers are plug and play. Drai, Cagguila, slepy, JP; and maybe a veteran signing. RW should be fine!

    I think you will see Strome RW#1, JP #2, Kass #3, Sleppy #4 …. that’s pretty solid I would say

  73. Professor Q says:

    treevojo: Just read that snow turned down Van reimsdyck and 2018 1st for hamonic.

    Looks like Snow didn’t want any salary in return.

    Preparing for Kovalchuk?

  74. digger50 says:

    I really enjoy the week after the draft as we digest just where we are sitting and the potential ahead. Only true way I can do this is through this blog so thank you to LT.

    For comparison:

    Wasn’t Drake’s NHLE 44?
    Foo about 38?
    Gambardella?

    Foo’s camp has played this so well. If he does not get some guarantees, I highly doubt he’s coming to Edmonton. After all this time, I imagine his camp emerges with best deal possible, including NHL time and $.

  75. Professor Q says:

    leadfarmer: In two years all these guys might be long gone.Goalies don’t seem that hard to get until you really need one and then goalering becomes everything.I’m very curious to follow the Flames season that hangs by a thread that is Mike Smiths groin.

    Mind you, Smith is an Oiler killer. Could have influenced their decision?

  76. JDI says:

    Professor Q: Preparing for Kovalchuk?

    Radulov is going to fetch a good pence as well.

  77. Soup Fascist says:

    Chris:
    Bonino and Connolly are guys I’d also expect they will give some consideration to. Bonino might be had for around 3 million and would add depth down the middle. Connolly is only 25 scored 18 goals last year and has been acquired by Chia in the past.

    If you can get Bonino for $3M with reasonable term, I would agree. Think he might go a bit higher than that though.

  78. JDI says:

    Your list of free agents this summer:

    http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/free_agents

  79. npanciroli says:

    Aren’t Bonino’s fancies not great?

  80. Professor Q says:

    npanciroli:
    Aren’t Bonino’s fancies not great?

    That’s a bit personal, don’t you think?

  81. Ducey says:

    jm363561: This situation has been created, in large part, by the Reinhart trade, a slow start by JP, Benson’s injury, and the loss of picks for employing Chia and TMac, (offset to some degree by Benning, in particular, and Caggiula – for which we give multiple hosannas).

    Re Hamonic, it was reported four teams, including Toronto and Dallas, baulked at two first round picks – Calgary got no bargain with a first and two seconds and must be praying for a bounce back year from him. Interesting to see early opinion on the trade is negative. Russell for 4 x $4m, or Hamonic (a dreadful 49 3-11-14, -21) for 3 x $3.9m + a first and two seconds. I go with KR fwiw.

    Finally, thanks as always LT for the superb coverage.

    Agreed. CGY now has no first, second or third in next year’s draft and no second in 2019. That really puts a dent in the ability of an organization to keep the cheap young players coming in.

  82. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m not so sure we see any more NHL forwards . The ranks are full, unless they don’t want Khaira and Pitlick or there is a trade.

    Part of managing the roster is giving players their due, or problems start or the player wants out. A new F keeps somebody in the A who should be graduating.

    They do need defensemen. If they will use Fayne they could re-sign Gryba and find a left side 7-8. That seems like their style from what they have previously done. Chiarelli is not easy to predict however.

  83. Ducey says:

    Professor Q: Mind you, Smith is an Oiler killer. Could have influenced their decision?

    Tippet is the Oilers killer. Let’s see how Smith plays when it’s not trap city in front of him

  84. Centre of attention says:

    I could see Foo signing in Calgary. They just traded a crap ton of picks over last few years, much more clear path to NHL. EDM is crowded.

    This, plus he has already attended Flames development camp once. Would still be close to hometown Edmonton to see family, etc.

  85. npanciroli says:

    Professor Q,

    Haha

  86. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Chris: The options at RW are not inspiring. Did Radulov resign in Montreal yet? I don’t think with Oshy resigning that there are really any other legitimate top line RWers out there on the right side of 35. Hanzal and possibly the return of Samwise for a second act are options at centre.

    If the Oilers didn’t like Eberle I can’t imagine how they would feel about Gagner.

  87. Lowetide says:

    I think the RW depth chart may be:

    Draisaitl
    Slepyshev
    Puljujarvi
    Kassian
    Pitlick/Pakarinen

  88. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Oilers have JP, Yama, Slepy, Kassian, Strome. All but one a skill player. Already an undersized player who is better. I wouldn’t sign with the Oilers if I was Foo, that is a lot of tough comp to overcome.

  89. npanciroli says:

    Lowetide,

    You think they play Strome at center?

    I had:

    McDavid Strome
    Draisaitl Slepyshev
    RNH Puljujärvi
    Letestu Kassian
    Pakarinen extra with JJ

  90. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    The Oilers have JP, Yama, Slepy, Kassian, Strome. All but one a skill player. Already an undersized player who is better. I wouldn’t sign with the Oilers if I was Foo, that is a lot of tough comp to overcome.

    And Drai at times to boot per LT’s list.

  91. Professor Q says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    The Oilers have JP, Yama, Slepy, Kassian, Strome. All but one a skill player. Already an undersized player who is better. I wouldn’t sign with the Oilers if I was Foo, that is a lot of tough comp to overcome.

    He could always move to LW, or one of them could.

  92. Lowetide says:

    npanciroli:
    Lowetide,

    You think they play Strome at center?

    I had:

    McDavid Strome
    Draisaitl Slepyshev
    RNH Puljujärvi
    Letestu Kassian
    Pakarinen extra with JJ

    Yes. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oilers add another center and then run pairs:

    McDavid-Leon
    Marleau-Nuge

    and then have Strome and Letestu in the mix on 3and4lines.

  93. McNuge93 says:

    Ducey: Tippet is the Oilers killer. Let’s see how Smith plays when it’s not trap city in front of him

    Actually prior to last year everybody was an Oiler killer.

  94. Chris says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If the Oilers didn’t like Eberle I can’t imagine how they would feel about Gagner.

    It’s Bonino, Gagner and Hanzel available at centre then a bunch of vets in the twilight of their career. There are really only 3 options that are palatable for more than a one year deal.

  95. godot10 says:

    Ryan: There’s always the potential for so-called sophomore slump, but Benning had one heck of a season last year.

    Especially if he is paired with Russell, because he will be playing in his own end a LOT more.
    And then Benning will be blamed instead of….

  96. Chris says:

    Lowetide: Yes. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oilers add another center and then run pairs:

    McDavid-Leon
    Marleau-Nuge

    and then have Strome and Letestu in the mix on 3and4lines.

    With Lucic and Maroon already here I’m not sure that Marleau makes a great deal of sense.

  97. treevojo says:

    godot10: Especially if he is paired with Russell, because he will be playing in his own end a LOT more.
    And then Benning will be blamed instead of….

    #thoroughlymediocrecoach ?

  98. Blackwolf says:

    Perhaps there are some talented vets that want to make a cup run, and looked at the bookies odds.
    Marleau-mcdavid-thornton.
    Even with age, that could be devastating.

  99. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    rickithebear:

    Russel – Larson (1st comp)
    Klefbom – benning (2nd)

    – 3rd:

    Nurse-Gryba,

    – They were CF% over 52% (even though I hate that stat),

    – Gryba’s main partner was Nurse last year (288 mins)

    – They trust Gryba with Nurse

    – Kind of a Dog’s breakfast, but they could make it work, waiting for Sek

    – Then give Osterle/Simpson/Paigin/last minute pick up a chance

  100. Diablo says:

    treevojo: Just read that snow turned down Van reimsdyck and 2018 1st for hamonic.

    Looks like Snow didn’t want any salary in return.

    Please post the link to that … otherwise all summer we will hear an endless loop about how all we needed to do was add a first to Eberle for Harmonic.

  101. admiralmark says:

    Am I the only one that liked Nurse-Larsson when they played together? I thought they were rather effective and Nurse didnt look out of place. Albeit they weren’t together that much. But perhaps the year could start with:

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Russell
    ?FA? – Benning

  102. leadfarmer says:

    If McDavid Nuge and Strome are our centers we are saying screw faceoffs again next year

  103. Professor Q says:

    Diablo: Please post the link to that … otherwise all summer we will hear an endless loop about how all we needed to do was add a first to Eberle for Harmonic.

    I’d rather have Russell, Yamamoto, and Strome than Hamonic.

  104. Ryan says:

    admiralmark:
    Am I the only one that liked Nurse-Larsson when they played together? I thought they were rather effective and Nurse didnt look out of place. Albeit they weren’t together that much. But perhaps the year could start with:

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Russell
    ?FA? – Benning

    Many stats guys would argue that Benning is far ahead of Nurse.

    So you’re going to play the inferior player on the top pairing and the better player on the third pairing?

  105. Alpine says:

    Professor Q: I’d rather have Russell, Yamamoto, and Strome than Hamonic.

    Professor Q: I’d rather have Russell, Yamamoto, and Strome than Hamonic.

    Yamamoto is not being drafted next year so you could have him and Hamonic.

  106. admiralmark says:

    Ryan: Many stats guys would argue that Benning is far ahead of Nurse.

    So you’re going to play the inferior player on the top pairing and the better player on the third pairing?

    What happened when Sekera went down in the playoffs? Nurse-Larsson. I thought they played well in a very difficult high min’s on the road game. But i admit it was just 1 game. Not sure if they played together much otherwise? Also I like Benning when he was playing his best but after the injury results were inconsistent. I’m not saying it’s a slam dunk only that they looked quite well together so I would at least look at it in the pre-season as an option.

  107. gogliano says:

    I think the C/RW depth chart will be a fluid one, with Strome and Draisatl both playing as C/RWs.

    If a healthy Oilers have a gap on RW, it’s because they’re running McDavid-Draisatl-RNH down the middle. Not many teams can handle that trio of centers regardless of who is playing RW. If they don’t, it’s because they’re using the McDavid-Draisatl pair — perhaps the best duo in the NHL at the moment. Chia and McLellan are creating a system with optionality. That was part of the logic of the Strome pickup, I think.

    The clear winner in the Eberle move is JP, who must be close to a lock to make the NHL roster at this point.

  108. rickithebear says:

    Ryan:
    Wood money Argued against my Hd theory and situational means for years until they got what i was teaching years later.

    Dff% is a complete failed understanding of were dman affect is and were the baseline measure starts.

    HD theory period.
    Situational mean period.

    These are partials of true hockey analytics

    Vegas has the best d depth in the league!

    1st comp
    N. Schmidt #8 Hd dman 1.67; #43 .64 eva60 dman
    Methot #70 hd dman 2.08; #110 .50 eva60 dman

    2nd comp
    Mcnabb #1 hd dman 1.54; #61 .58 EVA60 dman
    Sbisa #43 hd dman 1.97; #150 .40 EVA60 dman
    C. Miller #52 hd dman 2.03; #99 .52 EVA60 dman
    Emelin #52 hd dman 2.03; #129 .45 EVA60 dman
    Garrison #60 HD dman 2.05; #110 .50 EVA60 dman

    3 rd comp
    Stoner #3 HD dman 1.62; #152 EVA60 dman

  109. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    McSorley33:
    I would have preferred The 2 C’s that went just ahead of Yamamoto, but I am really happy with the picks, save for the goalie.

    The Yamamoto kid has factors that I love that,imo, mitigate his size.

    First, and most importantly, blazing speed.

    Second, the fight in the dog.

    Finally, Dedication by being a Combine monster!!

    The other picks are great plays on value…so much so that it feels awkward almost.

    As always, Outstanding work LT.

    Interestingquestion, besides Nashville and Anaheim, what team would have the best top 4 in the NHL?

    I’m reading that Yammamoto has blazing speed all over the place.

    I spent the entire spring yelling at the Oilers to draft Yammamoto and Skinner, and I was constantly arguing with people on this blog about Yammamoto’s skating in particular. Looks like that is turning a corner now, I’m happy to see it.

    Still can’t believe no one took Bellerive though. 27 goal 3C with minimal PP time and centering the 1PK unit. Crazy. Oh, and he fights a lot.

  110. Oilanderp says:

    rickithebear,

    Do you have a link to some sort of glossary of terms or other info regarding your rickibox?

    HD stands for high danger? How do you determine this?

    I know you must’ve gone through this already but I missed it. Hence why I asked for a link if you have one. Not trying to poke the bear.

  111. haters says:

    leadfarmer:
    If McDavid Nuge and Strome are our centers we are saying screw faceoffs again next year

    Betting against McDavid ? Kay.
    The vitriol from the 10 year drought is to strong still I guess.

    When can we start actually stop being negative about this team. How much further do we have to get.
    I envision Connor working like a mad man on the only thing he was sub par at this year.
    Cheers
    Or jeers. wtvr floats your boat

  112. Marc says:

    Diablo: Please post the link to that … otherwise all summer we will hear an endless loop about how all we needed to do was add a first to Eberle for Harmonic.

    I saw that too: http://www.torontosun.com/2017/06/24/hamonics-contract-is-financial-value-in-todays-nhl

  113. Blackwolf says:

    Apparently the #Isles turned down an offer that included James van Riemsdyk https://t.co/U6klbTnPNV

  114. russ99 says:

    godot10: Especially if he is paired with Russell, because he will be playing in his own end a LOT more.
    And then Benning will be blamed instead of….

    Benning is good in our end, even did well against tough playoff competition, that won’t be a problem.

    McLellan seems to deploy pairings with one defender and one puckmover, Russell – Benning fits in with that.

    How much of a drop off really is a Benning from a Franson/Demers type?

    I’d prefer a decent quality experienced D to play with Nurse, let him freewheeel with the puck and cover for his mistakes. Like a better version of Gryba who can skate and make a pass in the defensive zone. Those guys are usually out there after the third day of FA for reasonable salary.

  115. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Flames have 4 quality forwards in Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennet and Tkachuk. They have mid league scoring at 17 and GA at 14. They also don’t have a reliable goalie. They might drop GA some. Work to do to contend.

  116. treevojo says:

    Diablo: Please post the link to that … otherwise all summer we will hear an endless loop about how all we needed to do was add a first to Eberle for Harmonic.

    http://www.newsday.com/sports/hockey/islanders/travis-hamonic-traded-to-calgary-for-draft-picks-1.13761218

  117. blainer says:

    Very happy not to have been in on Hamonic.

    I like our D to be physical or move the puck. Hamonic hits went way down over the past three years.

    An average of almost three hits per game then two per game until last year where it was just a little over one per game.

    He is no Larsson anymore and i have no problem with him on the Flames.

    We will be THE team to beat coming out of the west next year IMO.

  118. treevojo says:

    Ryan: Many stats guys would argue that Benning is far ahead of Nurse.

    So you’re going to play the inferior player on the top pairing and the better player on the third pairing?

    Maybe many stats guys just really like to argue?

  119. hunter1909 says:

    digger50: I really enjoy the week after the draft as we digest just where we are sitting and the potential ahead.

    Yeah, as in Yamamoto getting 10 goals in his first 13 games before getting his sternum shattered and regressing into a 25 point player.

  120. hunter1909 says:

    admiralmark: What happened when Sekera went down in the playoffs?

    IIRC, Oilers instantly got booted from the playoffs.

  121. treevojo says:

    blainer:
    Very happy not to have been in on Hamonic.

    I like our D to be physical or move the puck. Hamonic hits went way down over the past three years.

    An average of almost three hits per game then two per game until last year where it was just a little over one per game.

    He is no Larsson anymore and i have no problem with him on the Flames.

    We will be THE team to beat coming out of the west next year IMO.

    Correction

    We are THE team to beat coming out of the west.

  122. Munny says:

    treevojo: Maybe many stats guys just really like to argue?

    I have the ratio of stat and anti-stat guys’ love of arguing at 1:1.

    #fancies

  123. leadfarmer says:

    haters: Betting against McDavid ? Kay.
    The vitriol from the 10 year drought is to strong still I guess.

    When can we start actually stop being negative about this team. How much further do we have to get.
    I envision Connor working like a mad man on the only thing he was sub par at this year.
    Cheers
    Or jeers. wtvr floats your boat

    Haterz accusing people of hating is pretty rich. There was no hating involved. McDavid will get better the other guys I’d bet no. Just stating the fact that we will not be a good faceoff team next year

  124. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    Ryan:
    Wood money Argued against my Hd theory and situational means for years until they got what i was teaching years later.

    Dff% is a complete failed understanding of were dman affect is and were the baseline measure starts.

    HD theory period.
    Situational mean period.

    These are partials of true hockey analytics

    Vegas has the best d depth in the league!

    1st comp
    N. Schmidt #8 Hd dman 1.67; #43 .64 eva60 dman
    Methot #70 hd dman 2.08; #110 .50 eva60 dman

    2nd comp
    Mcnabb #1 hd dman 1.54; #61 .58 EVA60 dman
    Sbisa #43 hd dman 1.97; #150 .40 EVA60 dman
    C. Miller #52 hd dman 2.03; #99 .52 EVA60 dman
    Emelin #52 hd dman 2.03; #129 .45 EVA60 dman
    Garrison #60 HD dman 2.05; #110 .50 EVA60 dman

    3 rd comp
    Stoner #3 HD dman 1.62; #152 EVA60 dman

    Lol. If your analysis shows that’s the best d team depth in the league then it’s time to question your methods. There’s a reason these high values dmen in your eyes are scraps in this league

  125. Dominoiler says:

    Maybe Shats is going to Brooklyn?..

  126. LMHF#1 says:

    treevojo: Correction

    We are THE team to beat coming out of the west.

    Not if they don’t add multiple pieces before the deadline.

    They’ve already gotten worse in terms of the roster and a key defenceman will be attempting to recover from a major injury.

    They showed they had important weaknesses that must be addressed – both roster wise and strategy-wise before they can step up.

    The again, based on the last few days and the last deadline, I don’t know if Katz wants to win. He might just want a second round team that prints money.

  127. jtblack says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Bellvrie. All true but he does not fight a lot, just to clarify. He went #1 in the WHL draft 3 years ago. Ok 16 yr old season and decent year last year. I was surprised also. He is not the best skater, but I still thought he would be picked in round 4 or 5.

  128. Ryan says:

    rickithebear:
    Ryan:
    Wood money Argued against my Hd theory and situational means for years until they got what i was teaching years later.

    Dff% is a complete failed understanding of were dman affect is and were the baseline measure starts.

    HD theory period.
    Situational mean period.

    These are partials of true hockey analytics

    Vegas has the best d depth in the league!

    1st comp
    N. Schmidt #8 Hd dman 1.67; #43 .64 eva60 dman
    Methot #70 hd dman 2.08; #110 .50 eva60 dman

    2nd comp
    Mcnabb #1 hd dman 1.54; #61 .58 EVA60 dman
    Sbisa #43 hd dman 1.97; #150 .40 EVA60 dman
    C. Miller #52 hd dman 2.03; #99 .52 EVA60 dman
    Emelin #52 hd dman 2.03; #129 .45 EVA60 dman
    Garrison #60 HD dman 2.05; #110 .50 EVA60 dman

    3 rd comp
    Stoner #3 HD dman 1.62; #152 EVA60 dman

    With respect, this sounds sort of like an “I’m right and they’re wrong” sort of argument.

    One sticky wicket with your data set is that EVGA60 relies on goalie save percentage.

    The influence of defenseman on goalie ave perctage has not shown any repeatability.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

    The other item is since no one knows where you pull your data from, it would be helpful to indicate how many seasons of data you use. Is it just last season?

  129. frjohnk says:

    Ryan: With respect, this sounds sort of like an “I’m right and they’re wrong” sort of argument.

    One sticky wicket with your data set is that EVGA60 relies on goalie save percentage.

    The influence of defenseman on goalie ave perctage has not shown any repeatability.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

    The other item is since no one knows where you pull your data from, it would be helpful to indicate how many seasons of data you use. Is it just last season?

    All of his data is on the wall in the den.
    Mark Fistric pictures adorn the honey pot.
    Tyson Barrie pictures are adorned by claw marks

  130. fifthcartel says:

    They really missed the opportunity to add a great RHD’s age 26-29 years instead of playing a bottom pairing LHD on the second pair for more money and more term.

    Yamamoto is an interesting bet. Great speed and skills, I like that.

    I’m not a fan of the Eberle for Strome trade, especially when the difference in salary was used on Russell. Strome is an interesting player, but not particularly fleet of fleet or a guarantee of anything. Eberle was still a consistent 50+ scorer, even away from a Taylor Hall or Connor McDavid.

    I find myself disappointed with the moves made. I think they had a fine draft, Yamamoto was a nice to see them betting on skill, but otherwise I don’t really see how they haven’t made the team worse at this point. They’re definitely not better.

  131. digger50 says:

    hunter1909: Yeah, as in Yamamoto getting 10 goals in his first 13 games before getting his sternum shattered and regressing into a 25 point player.

    Hmmm, take it your not a fAn of the pick? Not sure what triggered you in my post but:

    A lot of times smaller players don’t get hit because they have come up with a sixth sense and are as slippery as hell. Plus they tend to bounce instead of having a big impact.

    I think the toughest part is not Kailer driving to the net, but trying to stop an opponent from driving to our net.

  132. Thor762 says:

    Yamamoto should be nicknamed Kamikaze. It’s the perfect fit.

    Small, very fast, fearless player taking on much larger opponents in what looks from an outsiders perspective as a suicide run, coming out of no where, dodging through the defensive flak, to crash the blue paint and score a hit, er, goal.

    Yamamoto = Kamikaze

  133. Gerta Rauss says:

    Westchester Oil: I think it will be interesting to see whether JP or Yamamoto gets more points in their NHL careers. I think I would lean to Yamamoto (p.s. we need to come up with a nickname for him).

    I think it was Bruce that mentioned yesterday that he has an established nickname- KY (as in slippery)

  134. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Team play and quality of players affects GA. At this time there isn’t enough data to drill down very far on individuals especially D, so proxies are used like Fenwick.

    Individually missing assignments cause GA outside of exceptional plays by opponents. It seems obvious, but coaches mention attention to detail a lot. Trading Eberle for Strome is not going to change things much that way. I think Larsson’s impact in this regard was significant.

    Really the only major piece that is missing is a right side defender that can outplay Russell on the right side. They have three strong centres if they play them in the middle.Lots of wingers and a solid backup.

    I don’t see a step backward because of the roster, and if players return to career norms, and with the age of a lot of players who should get better, there is a good chance the team is better next season as it is.

    I am not certain they will bring anybody in, because then Russell doesn’t have a home mid season. They are also I think still wary of salary beyond one season, can they get a better player than Russell who doesn’t require term? I guess we’ll know next Saturday.

  135. digger50 says:

    In playoffs I felt the last 8 games the Oilers d were being overwhelmed. The plan was dump it in and hit them till they cough up the puck and the plan was working. Benning, Russel, Sekera, Klef and even Nurse were getting worked over. Gryba made a difference one game but he gave up his physical advantage in other areas.

    If they go with the same D, they better sign Gryba. Perfect player to sub in

    If they bring in someone new, I hope they have some physicality to thier game and some speed for puck retrieval.

  136. who says:

    fifthcartel:
    They really missed the opportunity to add a great RHD’s age 26-29 years instead of playing a bottom pairing LHD on the second pair for more money and more term.

    Yamamoto is an interesting bet. Great speed and skills, I like that.

    I’m not a fan of the Eberle for Strome trade, especially when the difference in salary was used on Russell. Strome is an interesting player, but not particularly fleet of fleet or a guarantee of anything. Eberle was still a consistent 50+ scorer, even away with a Taylor Hall or Connor McDavid.

    I find myself disappointed with the moves made. I think they had a fine draft, Yamamoto was a nice to see them betting on skill, but otherwise I don’t really see how they haven’t made the team worse at this point. They’re definitely not better.

    I would have liked Hamonic also but the price was dear. Maybe too much considering the oilers prospect depth.
    Eberle’s last season will not be hard to replace. Don’t know what everyone is so worried about. We are fine at right wing.

  137. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Any idea how low Oilers were willing to go to get Yamamoto?

  138. Zelepukin says:

    leadfarmer: McDavid will get better the other guys I’d bet no. Just stating the fact that we will not be a good faceoff team next year

    Ya, it’s not safe to bet against McDavid’s work ethic in getting better. It’s like at the end of last off-season where they were interviewing guys like Scheifele and Mackinnon who said, somehow McD got faster and everyone was like, ya right, how is that even possible?

  139. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    jtblack:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Bellvrie. All true but he does not fight a lot, just to clarify.He went #1 in the WHL draft 3 years ago.Ok 16 yr old season and decent year last year. I was surprised also.He is not the best skater, but I still thought he would be picked in round 4 or 5.

    Looks only 2 registered fights this year, 5 the previous year… though I’m sure he had at least 2 in the playoffs this year. Not a fighter, but he will do it, and he plays much bigger than his height. Thick kid too.

  140. fifthcartel says:

    who: I would have liked Hamonic also but the price was dear. Maybe too much considering the oilers prospect depth.
    Eberle’s last season will not be hard to replace. Don’t know what everyone is so worried about. We are fine at right wing.

    I get the need to build a prospect pool, but I’d easily trade a ~20th pick and two ~50 picks for a top-4 NHL RHD.

    As for Eberle vs Strome, Eberle is the superior even strength and power play scorer, these are just facts.

    Eberle points/60

    5v5: 1.76
    PP: 4.47

    Strome points/60
    5v5: 1.58
    PP: 2.18

    When you factor in Eberle’s poor shooting luck, it’s not particularly close.

    It wouldn’t be wise to assume Strome replaces what Eberle brought last season.

  141. npanciroli says:

    fifthcartel,

    I think it was a good bet by Calgary to go for Hamilton with that type of package (which we apparently beat) . Hamonic with his knee injuries and the last year he put up, much more risky. Could definitely get the Hamonic of old, or could get the Hamonic of last year which is a disaster.

    Eberle for Strome definitely agree with, wish we used the money some other way.

  142. Scungilli Slushy says:

    fifthcartel: I get the need to build a prospect pool, but I’d easily trade a ~20th pick and two ~50 picks for a top-4 NHL RHD.

    As for Eberle vs Strome, Eberle is the superior even strength and power play scorer, these are just facts.

    Eberle points/60

    5v5: 1.76
    PP: 4.47

    Strome points/60
    5v5: 1.58
    PP: 2.18

    When you factor in Eberle’s poor shooting luck, it’s not particularly close.

    It wouldn’t be wise to assume Strome replaces what Eberle brought last season.

    He won’t replace the scoring. The PP minutes might even out with same TOI. But he also won’t be worse in puck battles or defensively. He gives options Eberle doesn’t and has room to grow, Eberle is a mature player now.

    No point raging against the cap, it’s there and it’s staying. The question to me s it a good cap deal? I think it is, Strome won’t command a large raise.

  143. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: I’m reading that Yammamoto has blazing speed all over the place.

    I spent the entire spring yelling at the Oilers to draft Yammamoto and Skinner, and I was constantly arguing with people on this blog about Yammamoto’s skating in particular.Looks like that is turning a corner now, I’m happy to see it.

    Still can’t believe no one took Bellerive though.27 goal 3C with minimal PP time and centering the 1PK unit.Crazy.Oh, and he fights a lot.

    I witnessed some of this argument and it was something that I found somewhat amazing, that different camps (you vs the world, if you will) could see the same player and come away with very different assessments of his speed.

  144. Blackwolf says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    After the draft the analysts said only yamamato and nico had elite speed

  145. fifthcartel says:

    Scungilli Slushy: He won’t replace the scoring. The PP minutes might even out with same TOI. But he also won’t be worse in puck battles or defensively. He gives options Eberle doesn’t and has room to grow, Eberle is a mature player now.

    No point raging against the cap, it’s there and it’s staying. The question to me s it a good cap deal? I think it is, Strome won’t command a large raise.

    I’m not convinced that stuff impacts the game as much as people believe, or that Eberle was that poor defensively. He had his moments, but for all his warts, still has a better impact in hockey games than Ryan Strome does.

    I disagree with it being a good cap deal when the cap savings are spent on Kris Russell.

  146. rickithebear says:

    Oilanderp:
    rickithebear,

    Do you have a link to some sort of glossary of terms or other info regarding your rickibox?

    HD stands for high danger?How do you determine this?

    I know you must’ve gone through this already but I missed it.Hence why I asked for a link if you have one.Not trying to poke the bear.

    Most sights will break the shots into low medium and high danger.
    I prefer to use a natural line in the sand.
    Which defines a shot as above average or below average.
    The commulative afect i have refered to for years. Can be treated as a density.
    The average low danger shot goes in 3.5 % of the time.
    The average high danger shot goes in 17.5% of the time.

    In the somplified shot density
    I use 1 for ld shots and 5 for high danger shots.
    With an average hd team generating shot density of 72
    You create a curve density relative to 0 to 5 ga.

    Our a more accurate cummulitive value for shot density were it s the sum of sot success by shot x,y location.
    You get a true shot density were you do not need to define a line in the sand.
    I presented this years ago.
    But people still do not get it.

    There are 2 forms of defence.
    1. Hd reduction thru forced Corsix,y greter the distance the poorer the targeting.
    Hd dmen
    # 1 mcnabb
    #3 Stoner
    # 8 schmidt
    Larsson (1st comp)
    Sekera ( 2 nd comp)
    Benning (3rd comp)
    C. Miller
    Emelin
    sbisa
    Garrison
    Methot

    2. Supression defined by blocks, forced misses ang closed(0% chance) shots.
    Dehaan
    Russell…..
    Using fenwick excludes 80 % of supression data.
    Which Makes it useless.

  147. rickithebear says:

    Oil and derp.
    The only measure of zonal defence is from ca baseline by distance and volume
    Hd distance
    Supression volume reduction.

    Cf and ca is a measure of a forwards performance.
    But should never be indicated as a % but a differential.
    Cause 2 difrent % can have the same differential depending on the corsi base.
    Which makes cf%, ff%, Sf%, gf% all bullshit.

  148. rickithebear says:

    fifthcartel: I’m not convinced that stuff impacts the game as much as people believe, or that Eberle was that poor defensively. He had his moments, but for all his warts, still has a better impact in hockey games than Ryan Strome does.

    I disagree with it being a good cap deal when the cap savings are spent on Kris Russell.

    Analytics and MSM are all idiots when it comes to defining shot supression.
    Russel has an elite block, forced miss and closed shot rate.
    With closed shot excluding more than 70 % of hd data.
    Closed shot supression can have a 4o + % variance.

    They are much more rare than hd dmen.

    Give me
    Russel – Larrson
    Dehaan – benning
    Klefbom – fayne

    Send Nurse to ………..

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