CHURNING AND BURNING, THEY YEARN FOR THE CUP

Are the Oilers rolling up the sidewalk and preparing for summer on the eve of free agency? If you run the numbers (as we did yesterday) this could be a quiet run up to the July 1 frenzy. It’s one thing to keep your powder dry, but what do you call it when you’ve run out of powder? I think the Oilers do have enough walking around money to grab one or two free agents on value deals, but the play here might be waiting until the deadline. If Peter Chiarelli decides it’s time to see what Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepysev and Dillon Simpson have to offer, then we could be done. I don’t believe it for a moment, doesn’t mean I’m right.

CURRENT 50-MAN

  • Kris Russell and Ryan Strome were added last week, Jordan Eberle exits the 50-man after turning pro fall 2010.
  • Two new draft picks turn pro this fall (Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear). Ryan Mantha signed as a CHL free agent, turns pro too. Ziyat Paigin and Joe Gambardella will join them in Bakersfield.
  • The Oilers have their top 5D now, sixth is Sekera but he can’t come out to play for the first half of the season. Mark Fayne is a candidate for the role, I suspect we’ll see an addition before training camp. One possibility? Dennis Wideman.
  • Ryan Strome debuts on RW, but when Leon Draisaitl is signed Strome will be mirror man to LD. Oilers are collecting centers at a rapid clip, Todd McLellan likes to run two per line when the need arises.

RFA AND UFA LIST

  • Today at 3 our time, the Oilers will have decided on qualifying the seven rfa’s listed here.
  • I think Joey Laleggia, Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian and Dillon Simpson will be qualified. At that point, I’ll put them back on the 50-man list.
  • We could also see some of these names signed by the deadline today.
  • I think Edmonton could sign between zero and three (Gryba, Oesterle, Pitlick) unrestricted players from this list.

SUMMER SHOPPING LIST

  • Finalize long term deal for Connor McDavid. This is JOB ONE.
  • Finalize long term deal for Leon Draisaitl. This is JOB TWO. 
  • Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future. (Griffin Reinhart).
  • Find a second pairing RHD with two-way acumen.
  • Find a stopgap measure to replace Andrej Sekera’s minutes. (Kris Russell)
  • Find a C-R who can help the offense and mirror Leon. Ideally a first-person shooter. (Ryan Strome)
  • Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline. (Eberle for Strome)

I think the second pairing RHD issue is the big one, has been all summer. I mentioned Dennis Wideman above, but for me Cody Franson one a one-year deal might be the last available logical choice. Might be room for an additional first-person shooter too, as in Patrick Marleau or Jarome Iginla. We’ll see who comes in this week to visit.

POSSIBLE ASSETS OUT

  1. Jordan Eberle
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  3. Cap Space
  4. Jesse Puljujarvi
  5. Caleb Jones
  6. 2018 first-round selection
  7. Benoit Pouliot
  8. Anton Slepyshev
  9. Jujhar Khaira
  10. Ethan Bear
  11. Griffin Reinhart

This is the second summer I’ve been sweating out a Nuge trade, one of these years it’ll happen. I will tell you this: Nuge for an established RHD and signing Martin Hanzal probably gets my balance photo published. I hate hate hate the thought of it but that’s what the team needs to have the kind of structure required.

THE DRAFT

We looked at Bob McKenzie’s list yesterday placed against Edmonton’s draft and it looked very good. Let’s compare it to Craig Button:

  • No. 22 Kailer Yamamoto (CB No. 16)
  • No. 78 Stuart Skinner (CB No. 80)
  • No. 84 Dmitri Samorukov (CB No. 53)
  • No. 115 Ostap Safin (CB No. 82)
  • No. 146 Kirill Maksimov (CB No. 90)
  • Source

Yep. Great draft. I was thrilled with Safin and Maksimov’s spike late made him a brilliant bet at No. 146, but the more I read about Skinner and Samorukov the more impressed I am about this draft. You could argue they didn’t need to trade an extra pick for the goalie and that they could have waited for him to come to them, but I like a general manager with the courage of his convictions. I had Skinner as the No. 12 goalie, Oilers took him as the fifth goalie off the list. They liked him plenty, and according to Bob Green both of the team’s goalie gurus were vehement about him. I like that kind of certainty. If you’re going to get the guy, get the damned guy. Great draft.

FUSSY BRITCHES

People ask me from time to time about Tracy Lane (Treenasoil) and I always say the same thing: In 2011, on July 1, she gave me a 20-minute head start on every free agent. Seriously. She would tweet out the name, I would write the article, and by the time msm reported I’d be good to go. Not lying, why would I? Her only mistake that day?

  • The Edmonton Oilers continue to upgrade their 4line with the addition of C Zenon Konopka via free agency.

I have the post in my drafts pile (the ones that never see the light of day) and wrote it in the middle of the Cam Barker, Eric Belanger, Ben Eager, Darcy Hordichuk posts. Tracy Lane gave them all to me 20 minutes before they broke.

Now, that doesn’t mean jack diddly today, and frankly Peter Chiarelli doesn’t seem to have an insider he talks to as Oilers general manager. Bob gets inside stuff, but he has connections in lots of places so we can’t be sure where the information is coming from. Mark Spector gets scoops but I think he digs and digs and digs to find them (suspect they are not, in fact, gifts from the general manager).

What I’m saying is this: When fussy britches tweets out the Oilers have interest in Patrick Marleau, Sam Gagner, Radim Vrbata, Drew Stafford, Michael Stone, it’s fair to regard them as reasonable guesses. Tracy Lane had the goods six years ago, maybe it’s true again this summer. At the worst, this is a person throwing names against a wall, which puts him/her about even with us.

RFA’S

  • LC Leon Draisaitl. The only thing remaining is money and term, we know he’s going to be a central figure in what is to come. His development since draft day has been exceptional and give him credit for increased skating ability. That’s a lot of hard work put in by the young man, and he’ll get paid.
  • R Zack Kassian. I’m sure the deal is close, maybe the club plans on having a media avail to announce 97, Leon and Kassian the same day. Should come in at a  reasonable number, he is a bottom 6F after all.
  • L Joey Laleggia. Yes please, qualify the man because the system lacks scoring forwards. It doesn’t matter how he got here, only that Laleggia might be the most capable scorer in the minors.
  • LD Dillon Simpson. Lots of turnover coming and with so many new defenseman headed to Bakersfield, Simpson could offer stability. He also looked good in a brief callup.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Lots of hockey talk, scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside. Major trades for the Oilers, Islanders, Flames, Rangers, Hawks and Coyotes this weekend.
  • Corey Graham, TSN1260’s pbp man for the Edmonton Oil Kings. We’ll talk Kailer Yamamoto and Stuart Skinner.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers weekend and the free agency to come.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue/The SuperFan. The draft, trading Eberle and signing Russell. Is Sunil happy?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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195 Responses to "CHURNING AND BURNING, THEY YEARN FOR THE CUP"

  1. JDI says:

    Cake!

  2. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I like Franson more than Wideman who has only played close to a full season once in the last five seasons, and Gryba as a regular. F & G are both slow, and Franson brings more.

    As for the free agents, any could be a help on the right contract. I’m not sure Stone is a short term type of player, but Connor, so you never know. Gagner is good on the PP, but is not fast, defensively suspect and non-physical.

    He would play PP minutes at the expense of a player that will be with the team long term or needs as many points as possible such as Nuge. There also is no issue with the PP as it stands, you could argue they need a defenseman who is good there. I don’t see a fit for Sam.

  3. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! Id’ rather Kulikov for 1 year than Wideman, but I get your drift…

  4. McNuge93 says:

    I agree that Franson (or Kulikov) would be a good move. Doubt Franson would take one yr though don’t you think. He should attract reasonable interest as a free agent. I am good with the forward group unless we can add a bargain contract later in free agency. (ala Versteeg last year) We are a little thin after our 14th forward. unless we sign Foo or Pitlick.

    If we find that we are lacking at forward we can always trade for one at the deadline. We actually have assets now to trade

  5. npanciroli says:

    Sign me up for Franson and a vet RW forward.

    Maybe seeing if Fayne has anything left isn’t a bad idea?

    Klefbom Larsson
    Russell Benning
    Nurse Fayne

    isn’t that bad until Sekera comes back. Especially if they load up the forwards a bit more.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Assuming no Foo (or even with Foo as he is no guarantee for the NHL), do we have the money to grab a Williams/Vrbata for 2 years (will they sign for only 2 years)?

    Do we need to aim lower, i.e. Jagr, Iginla, Doan?

    Maybe we don’t have enough powder to fish at all?

    Really only PC knows how much Drai and McDavid are likely to cost and if we’ll still have Pouliot’s cap hit, etc. – how much powder will be available.

    I was hoping for Derek Ryan as a depth center/value contract but that dream has died.

    I expect a quiet Saturday for the Oil unless PC has some sort of trade up his sleeve – maybe some internal RFA signings to be announced.

  7. Rich M says:

    The concern w/Franson is his footspeed. At best he’s going to be a 5/6 right hand d-man. May help the PP, but what he gets, he’ll give away at evens. No thank you.

  8. JDI says:

    Also, as WG pointed out on the twitter, there’s been a Howson sighting within the Oilers this past weekend.

    Be afraid.

  9. Doug McLachlan says:

    Derek Ryan can be scratched off the list as per CapFriendly. 1yr $1.425M. Damn.

  10. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!Id’ rather Kulikov for 1 year than Wideman, but I get your drift…

    But he’s a left shot. They need 2 RHD, possibly one left if they don’t trust the farm guys.

  11. bendelson says:

    Much debate on whether Chia’s manoeuvres have in fact been ‘deft’… some suggest ‘daft’ may be more appropriate.

  12. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Assuming no Foo (or even with Foo as he is no guarantee for the NHL), do we have the money to grab a Williams/Vrbata for 2 years (will they sign for only 2 years)?

    Do we need to aim lower, i.e. Jagr, Iginla, Doan?

    Maybe we don’t have enough powder to fish at all?

    Really only PC knows how much Drai and McDavid are likely to cost and if we’ll still have Pouliot’s cap hit, etc. – how much powder will be available.

    I was hoping for Derek Ryan as a depth center/value contract but that dream has died.

    I expect a quiet Saturday for the Oil unless PC has some sort of trade up his sleeve – maybe some internal RFA signings to be announced.

    There are 7 RFA’s and 2 UFA’s to sign next summer including McDavid. I think unless there is a trade or two this summer, I don’t see how they can take anything but a one year contract or as LT has been saying a trade deadline pick up.

    However those are typically costly, so I doubt we would see a major addition because the system is still very thin, but you never know.

  13. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Scungilli Slushy: But he’s a left shot. They need 2 RHD, possibly one left if they don’t trust the farm guys.

    – good point! Always thought he was RHD: never mind, carry on…

  14. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Chiarelli would know Franson well, same division as Boston when Chia was there and Franson on the Leafs, so if they get him they like him enough. He may be slow, but so is Gryba, and I think Franson has more puck skill and can be used as a PP right side shooter. Not perfect, might be the best available with what the OIlers are able to do because cap.

  15. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – good point!Always thought he was RHD: never mind, carry on…

    Never listen to Woodguy’s phone.

  16. Ducey says:

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/vancouver+canucks+fared+well+edmonton+oilers+even+better+grading/13523339/story.html

    The National Post etc did a story grading the drafts of the Canadian teams. They surveyed three scouts.

    Flames A
    MTL C+
    Ottawa B
    TOR B+
    Canucks A
    Oilers A+

    Money quote on the Oilers: “I love their draft,” said North American Central Scouting’s Mark Seidel. “I thought they killed it.”

    I now return you to your regularly scheduled gnashing of teeth over all the alleged errors of Chia et al.

  17. geowal says:

    From needs: “Find a second pairing RHD with two-way acumen.”

    Clearly, they have decided Russell is this person. The Sekera stopgap would be Gryba or the like.

    Deftly maneuvre indeed.

  18. Chachi says:

    JDI:
    Also, as WG pointed out on the twitter, there’s been a Howson sighting within the Oilers this past weekend.

    Be afraid.

    Welcome back Nikita Nikitin!

  19. Ducey says:

    JDI:
    Also, as WG pointed out on the twitter, there’s been a Howson sighting within the Oilers this past weekend.

    Be afraid.

    He was sitting with the scouts.

    If they keep doing what they are doing the last three drafts and with amateur UFA’s, I have no problem with it.

  20. JDI says:

    Ducey: He was sitting with the scouts.

    Rishaug says he’s been brought back to consult.

    Off topic, but is there any way to search stats sites for former Olympians over the age of 32?

  21. RyMosh4 says:

    Lowetide with Fraser (and someone who isn’t Dusty) right now is very, very good radio. An intelligent, civil conversation. Tune in now or check it out later.

  22. Snowman says:

    geowal:
    From needs: “Find a second pairing RHD with two-way acumen.”

    Clearly, they have decided Russell is this person. The Sekera stopgap would be Gryba or the like.

    Deftly maneuvre indeed.

    I think Russel is the Sekera stopgap and Benning is the Russel replacement. Gryba or *insert RHD Depth Dman* will be third pair with Nurse and Fayne/Oesterle/whoerever will be 7D.

    I’ve been sweating the Nuge trade big time. Like Lowetide, he’s my favourite player, non Mcdavid division, and he has been since he got here. I’ll have a tough time seeing him go should the gords decide that’s his fate.

    It would be tough to ignore a Faulk if he’s available for a Nuge though. I don’t think Chia can be done yet. The team is still too similiar to last year and I think he understands where we’re at in the timeline. I might not agree with his decisions all the time but I do think he knows we need to be better this year.

    I’ve also come around on internal growth driving the improvement. If Nurse develops into a legit top 4 D this year and Benning is pushing Russel by year end and Klef keeps growing his offence a bit.. that might be the ticket. Not how I would have done it but I can see why you might bet on that.

  23. Cassandra says:

    I am curious, what is the line in the sand for success/failure from the Chiarelli regime over the next five years?

    I think most will say win a Stanley Cup, singular. Myself, I think that is the wrong standard. There is too much luck involved.

    The playoffs matter, but it is the regular season that is the test of quality. So here is my standard combining both.

    1) Be consistently in the top four in the league in regular season points.
    2) Be the best team in the league some years.
    3) Not flame out in the playoffs, winning at least one pennant.

    Winning one Stanley Cup isn’t enough if 1) and 2) aren’t also there. Conversely, if they lose in the finals but are consistently excellent, I won’t complain. I don’t think that is too high an expectation for a team that was gifted McDavid.

    We shouldn’t judge Chiarelli on a sliding scale. Every single thing outside of Chiarelli’s moves have created the possibility for success. They were given McDavid at exactly the same time as the rest of the West is on the decline. Making the playoffs is not good enough. Being 8th in the league in goals for is not good enough. Being competitive is not good enough.

    This is the context of expectations for those that are unhappy with Chiarelli. Even I think the naysayers who are worried about the playoffs are overdoing it. The Oilers will make the playoffs next year. But making the playoffs in spite of the general manager is the tyranny of low expectations.

  24. Jaxon says:

    Laleggia should have an interesting camp. This will be the first summer he’s ever had to work on his game as a forward. He might surprise. Remember that he once posted an NHLe of 36 as a 22 yr old NCAA defenceman.

  25. doritogrande says:

    But he’s a left shot. They need 2 RHD, possibly one left if they don’t trust the farm guys.

    Russell played RHD last year, he can do it again if we find a better lefty option to replace Sekera in the meantime. I’m personally more a fan of making #4D with Russel as a partner an open competition for Nurse/Benning and see who comes out on top. The other anchors the 3rd pair with someone.

  26. Chachi says:

    Cassandra:
    I am curious, what is the line in the sand for success/failure from the Chiarelli regime over the next five years?

    I think most will say win a Stanley Cup, singular.Myself, I think that is the wrong standard.There is too much luck involved.

    The playoffs matter, but it is the regular season that is the test of quality.So here is my standard combining both.

    1) Be consistently in the top four in the league in regular season points.
    2) Be the best team in the league some years.
    3) Not flame out in the playoffs, winning at least one pennant.

    Winning one Stanley Cup isn’t enough if 1) and 2) aren’t also there.Conversely, if they lose in the finals but are consistently excellent, I won’t complain.I don’t think that is too high an expectation for a team that was gifted McDavid.

    We shouldn’t judge Chiarelli on a sliding scale.Every single thing outside of Chiarelli’s moves have created the possibility for success. They were given McDavid at exactly the same time as the rest of the West is on the decline.Making the playoffs is not good enough.Being 8th in the league in goals for is not good enough.Being competitive is not good enough.

    This is the context of expectations for those that are unhappy with Chiarelli.Even I think the naysayers who are worried about the playoffs are overdoing it.The Oilers will make the playoffs next year.But making the playoffs in spite of the general manager is the tyranny of low expectations.

    Your standards of success seem arbitrary and can be effected by many things like luck and strength of schedule which have absolutely nothing to do with the management of a team.

    I have one and only one measure of success that Chiarelli must meet in order to be considered a success: After the Oilers extend Draisaitl and McDavid he has to attend the press conference announcing the deals in a velvet track suit. Anything less and he’s dead to me.

  27. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Cassandra,

    FWIW this is the definition of creating “moveable” goalposts

  28. Ducey says:

    Cassandra:
    I am curious, what is the line in the sand for success/failure from the Chiarelli regime over the next five years?

    I think most will say win a Stanley Cup, singular.Myself, I think that is the wrong standard.There is too much luck involved.

    The playoffs matter, but it is the regular season that is the test of quality.So here is my standard combining both.

    1) Be consistently in the top four in the league in regular season points.
    2) Be the best team in the league some years.
    3) Not flame out in the playoffs, winning at least one pennant.

    Winning one Stanley Cup isn’t enough if 1) and 2) aren’t also there.Conversely, if they lose in the finals but are consistently excellent, I won’t complain.I don’t think that is too high an expectation for a team that was gifted McDavid.

    We shouldn’t judge Chiarelli on a sliding scale.Every single thing outside of Chiarelli’s moves have created the possibility for success. They were given McDavid at exactly the same time as the rest of the West is on the decline.Making the playoffs is not good enough.Being 8th in the league in goals for is not good enough.Being competitive is not good enough.

    This is the context of expectations for those that are unhappy with Chiarelli.Even I think the naysayers who are worried about the playoffs are overdoing it.The Oilers will make the playoffs next year.But making the playoffs in spite of the general manager is the tyranny of low expectations.

    Hey! A reasonable post. Good job.

    I guess my question would be, who cares?

    If the Oilers win the Cup, that’s 16 playoff wins, a parade and another playoff banner.

    Whether Chia did it the optimal way, or the team wins the President’s trophy, won’t concern me in the slightest.

  29. JDI says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!: creating “moveable” goalposts

    CAR!

  30. who says:

    Find 1 more dman on 1 year contract and I think they are done.
    I find all the rage and hand wringing over Chia s moves amusing. How many bad moves has he really made?
    1. Reinhart trade- gave up two good draft picks for a prospect d with a good draft pedigree. Hasn’t worked out and now he’s gone in expansion. Can’t blame the trade for that. Reinhart still may become a solid dman.
    2. Lucic signing – will probably cost them Maroon after this year. Can’t give big money, term and NMC to aging, slow wingers, no matter how good they are in the room.
    3. Davidson trade- not a big deal at the time but it was unnecessary and may have cost them Reinhart. Can’t just give away d depth. Especially the cheap kind.
    4. Russell signing- if the contract is tradeable I am fine with it. Happy to have him back this year.
    Regarding the loss of value in major trades. What loss of value?
    Traded a very good left winger for a very good righty dman and cap space. Fair trade.
    Traded a good right winger with proven scoring for a younger, faster, harder shooting right winger/center without the track record AND cap space. Fair trade.
    Just don’t understand the angst about losing Eberle. He was not very good last year. Some of the posters here make it sound like we traded Bossy or Lafleur. I think his production will be replaced and the extra cap space is gold.

  31. Jaxon says:

    I could see them signing Samuelsson on a cheap one year contract. I think there was too much potential to throw away that asset just yet. His draft season even strength points per game is just behind Nugent-Hopkins and Curtis Lazar in a season where he came in half way through the season from Modo. A former 27 the overall pick. 6’2″ RW who won a Memorial Cup and made 2 Memorial Cup all Star teams. Great hockey bloodlines bring the son of Ulf. He won’t cost much, so I think they should keep him in the system.

  32. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Cassandra:
    I am curious, what is the line in the sand for success/failure from the Chiarelli regime over the next five years?

    I think most will say win a Stanley Cup, singular.Myself, I think that is the wrong standard.There is too much luck involved.

    The playoffs matter, but it is the regular season that is the test of quality.So here is my standard combining both.

    1) Be consistently in the top four in the league in regular season points.
    2) Be the best team in the league some years.
    3) Not flame out in the playoffs, winning at least one pennant.

    Winning one Stanley Cup isn’t enough if 1) and 2) aren’t also there.Conversely, if they lose in the finals but are consistently excellent, I won’t complain.I don’t think that is too high an expectation for a team that was gifted McDavid.

    We shouldn’t judge Chiarelli on a sliding scale.Every single thing outside of Chiarelli’s moves have created the possibility for success. They were given McDavid at exactly the same time as the rest of the West is on the decline.Making the playoffs is not good enough.Being 8th in the league in goals for is not good enough.Being competitive is not good enough.

    This is the context of expectations for those that are unhappy with Chiarelli.Even I think the naysayers who are worried about the playoffs are overdoing it.The Oilers will make the playoffs next year.But making the playoffs in spite of the general manager is the tyranny of low expectations.

    For most teams that should be the standard, but if you have luck and get a player like McDavid I think the bar needs to be at least a Cup, even with luck affecting outcomes in hockey.

    It of course takes more than a single player, but the Oilers have quality players developing in key positions and a goalie.

    Toews Kane Keith – 3
    Crosby Malkin – 3
    Doughty and friends – 2

    Internally I imagine anything but a couple of Cups would be considered a failure in the McDavid years.

  33. npanciroli says:

    Only thing that matters is cups.

    If the Oilers squeeze in 8th place with Russell posting a 30% CF but win a cup I couldn’t care less.

    CUPS

  34. Ducey says:

    Jaxon:
    I could see them signing Samuelsson on a cheap one year contract. I think there was too much potential to throw away that asset just yet. His even strength points per game is just behind Nugent-Hopkins and Curtis Lazar in a season where he came in half way through the season from Modo. A former 27 the overall pick. 6’2″ RW who won a Memorial Cup and made 2Memorial Cup all Star teams. Great hockey bloodlines bring the son of Ulf. He won’t cost much, so I think they should keep him in the system.

    He is done.

    His first AHL season was promising (40 pts in 68 games), but in the last 2 he has 15 pts total in 68 games. He was -20 in 43 games in his second AHL year.

    He has some sort of issue: he doesn’t care, injury,issues with the bottle, who knows, I have no idea, but he is done with those stats.

    Perhaps they could sign him to an AHL deal if they think they can fix him, but that’s about it.

  35. Cassandra says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Cassandra,

    FWIW this is the definition of creating “moveable” goalposts

    You people are impossible. I did the opposite of what you just said. This is why people keep leaving.

    One side of this endless debate spent the last weekend going back and forth arbitrarily between shifting standards (cap space is important when you trade Eberle but cap space is unimportant when you sign Russell) in their Sysiphian task of finding a rationale to defend Chiarelli), and then they turn around and accuse the other side of shifting the goal posts.

    It has become impossible to have a reasonable debate over what are reasonable expectations.

  36. Side says:

    Cassandra: This is why people keep leaving and coming back under a new account only for them to leave again and then come back under a different account.

    Fixed that for yah.

  37. Rondo says:

    Spencer Foo is sure taking his time.A decision like this could take a week not months, but he has specifics and I’m sure it is playing time and depth at his position.

    I believe a team that says he will play in the NHL on this line x is doing him a disservice and does not have his best interests in mind.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: There are 7 RFA’s and 2 UFA’s to sign next summer including McDavid. I think unless there is a trade or two this summer, I don’t see how they can take anything but a one year contract or as LT has been saying a trade deadline pick up.

    However those are typically costly, so I doubt we would see a major addition because the system is still very thin, but you never know.

    Agree, 100%.

    The Russell signing closes the door on any material improvement to the defensive group (notwithstanding Chia’s end of season presser which expressly stated the need to improve).

    Any signing on the back-end (or acquisition) would need to be one year (unless we are trading a roster D).

    Even with forwards, I don’t think we have the ability to give term.

    The caveat is if a further trade is made to open up additional cap space in the medium term (Pouliot, Nuge, etc.).

  39. GCW_69 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: But he’s a left shot. They need 2 RHD, possibly one left if they don’t trust the farm guys.

    They can always play Russell on the right side again. Kulikov is good because his upside is fairly big (bounce back from injury) and he can move the puck, and if he hits, it would give the team options come the deadline.

  40. Rondo says:

    Grading the draft is ridiculous. Who believes this crap. All of a sudden these sports news guys know who is good and bad. If it follows their mock then good draft for the team.

  41. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Cassandra,

    – Outer marker next 10 years is 3 Cups: i.e. Pittsburgh

    – With another team in the league, everyone got that much worse: and McD and Drai get one year more experience

    – Whether we win a few cups like CHI, and McL and Chia are there like Quenville/Bowman, or L.A. with Suter /Lombardi or go through 4 coaches and 3 GM’s like Pitt: that’s the question

    – Suspect next ten years we will be best team in NHL some years, miss the playoffs, lose early in playoffs, go deep in playoffs and win a few Cups.

    – The cap is so small for a 22 man roster, and so many teams, and so easy to be parity: the variance is huge for good teams, like L.A. Chicago Pittsburgh. And injuries.

    – One cup though would not be a good use IMO.

    – Just be a relevant team for 10 years I think is the max.

  42. leadfarmer says:

    Ducey:
    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/vancouver+canucks+fared+well+edmonton+oilers+even+better+grading/13523339/story.html

    The National Post etc did a story grading the drafts of the Canadian teams. They surveyed three scouts.

    Flames A
    MTL C+
    Ottawa B
    TOR B+
    Canucks A
    Oilers A+

    Money quote on the Oilers: “I love their draft,” said North American Central Scouting’s Mark Seidel. “I thought they killed it.”

    I now return you to your regularly scheduled gnashing of teeth over all the alleged errors of Chia et al.

    I thought they killed it. That doesnt mean all these guys dont bust but I like the bets that were placed. Also like that Boston took our pick and fired it into the sun

  43. Chachi says:

    Cassandra: It has become impossible to have a reasonable debate over what are reasonable expectations.

    I see people telling you what they feel is reasonable and you can’t seem to handle it.

  44. geowal says:

    Snowman,

    I don’t see how you can construe Benning as the Sekera replacement…then who is the Benning replacement.
    Framing a 4 year UFA signing as a stopgap just doesn’t make sense to me. I for one will be surprised if Chia signs anybody who was t with the team last year. Expect Gryba, Oesterle, etc.

  45. Cassandra says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Fleury cost Pittsburg a chance at two more cups, and that is even with Crosby’s concussions.

    But I think the Pittsburg standard is too high.

    In my opinion, relevant isn’t good enough. They need to be excellent.

    That said, if they don’t win any cups I wouldn’t put them as a failure necessarily. Context matters. Conversely, if they win one cup but aren’t consistently excellent I won’t be happy either.

    And for the record, I wouldn’t have traded what Calgary did for Hamonic. I might have trade what Calgary did + Kris Russell for Hamonic. But that is a different question.

  46. StixMalone says:

    Chachi,

    A blue velvet track suit with an Oilers logo would be sweet. Hell I would even buy that from the Oilers store if they get them instead of the new jersey’s !!!!

  47. GMB3 says:

    With all this talk about Oilers draft picks, thought I’d mention I played golf with former Oilers fourth rounder (I think) Jackson Houck over the weekend. Very funny guy

  48. Chachi says:

    StixMalone:
    Chachi,

    A blue velvet track suit with an Oilers logo would be sweet. Hell I would even buy that from the Oilers store if they get them instead of the new jersey’s !!!!

    This is all I ask for.

  49. Rich M says:

    Cassandra:
    I am curious, what is the line in the sand for success/failure from the Chiarelli regime over the next five years?

    I think most will say win a Stanley Cup, singular.Myself, I think that is the wrong standard.There is too much luck involved.

    The playoffs matter, but it is the regular season that is the test of quality.So here is my standard combining both.

    1) Be consistently in the top four in the league in regular season points.
    2) Be the best team in the league some years.
    3) Not flame out in the playoffs, winning at least one pennant.

    Winning one Stanley Cup isn’t enough if 1) and 2) aren’t also there.Conversely, if they lose in the finals but are consistently excellent, I won’t complain.I don’t think that is too high an expectation for a team that was gifted McDavid.

    We shouldn’t judge Chiarelli on a sliding scale.Every single thing outside of Chiarelli’s moves have created the possibility for success. They were given McDavid at exactly the same time as the rest of the West is on the decline.Making the playoffs is not good enough.Being 8th in the league in goals for is not good enough.Being competitive is not good enough.

    This is the context of expectations for those that are unhappy with Chiarelli.Even I think the naysayers who are worried about the playoffs are overdoing it.The Oilers will make the playoffs next year.But making the playoffs in spite of the general manager is the tyranny of low expectations.

    Interesting post – perfectly lucid. Set a benchmark and be measured against it. Reasonable people should be able to agree. Happens all the time in the business world.

    Winning the cup is not very easy and the fact the Pittsburgh has now done this 2 years in a row (not done in the cap era) has set a new standard for teams. To expect it to be repeated soon is not reasonable.

    But setting an expectation that’s higher than just making the playoffs – especially with a generational talent is important.

    A couple of quibbles would be as it relates to point #’s 1 & 2. In the last few seasons, we’ve had 8 seeds make it to the finals (LA, Nashville) and one of them won it.

    Conversely, Washington is consistently dominant in the regular season and can’t get past the 2nd round.

    Maybe work your way backwards and start it with the length of McDavid’s contract and set the bar within those parameters. For instance, in the next 5 years:
    1. Win the cup once.
    2. Win 2 pennants
    3. Make it to the 2nd round 4 of 5 years

    Might find it mirror’s the GM’s goals too. Seems like this year, the team exceeded his “public” expectations (103 points, 2nd round of the playoffs). That’s great. But it’s going to be much harder over the next few years to exceed (and tough enough just to meet).

  50. GCW_69 says:

    “Find a stopgap measure to replace Andrej Sekera’s minutes. (Kris Russell)”

    I think we have different definitions of “stopgap”.

    It’s more likely he has Russell in the “Find a second pairing RHD with two-way acumen.” role and will go to market looking at LHD and RHD that will accept a 1 year deal feeling Russell can play both sides.

    I don’t agree with it, and I think Russell is a bad bet for 4 years, and we have learned the hard way with Fayne and Pouliot that $4M cap hits are not easy to trade if the market thinks the player is done but not LTIR material.

  51. who says:

    Cassandra:
    I am curious, what is the line in the sand for success/failure from the Chiarelli regime over the next five years?

    I think most will say win a Stanley Cup, singular.Myself, I think that is the wrong standard.There is too much luck involved.

    The playoffs matter, but it is the regular season that is the test of quality.So here is my standard combining both.

    1) Be consistently in the top four in the league in regular season points.
    2) Be the best team in the league some years.
    3) Not flame out in the playoffs, winning at least one pennant.

    Winning one Stanley Cup isn’t enough if 1) and 2) aren’t also there.Conversely, if they lose in the finals but are consistently excellent, I won’t complain.I don’t think that is too high an expectation for a team that was gifted McDavid.

    We shouldn’t judge Chiarelli on a sliding scale.Every single thing outside of Chiarelli’s moves have created the possibility for success. They were given McDavid at exactly the same time as the rest of the West is on the decline.Making the playoffs is not good enough.Being 8th in the league in goals for is not good enough.Being competitive is not good enough.

    This is the context of expectations for those that are unhappy with Chiarelli.Even I think the naysayers who are worried about the playoffs are overdoing it.The Oilers will make the playoffs next year.But making the playoffs in spite of the general manager is the tyranny of low expectations.

    I agree with your measures of success. Might change top 4 every year to legit Stanley Cup contender every year.
    Winning the actual cup is a combination of skill and luck. That’s why I think it’s more important to build a team that can compete over the entire oiler career of Mcdavid rather than go all in for this, or any, year. Increases the odds of winning at least one cup.
    That is also why I am against trading legit prospects for short term solutions. For example trading JP for veteran help would be a bad move.

  52. Ryan says:

    bendelson:
    Much debate on whether Chia’s manoeuvres have in fact been ‘deft’…some suggest ‘daft’ may be more appropriate.

    Here’s a reasonable article. The author seems fairly unbiased as an NYU grad she’s not a homer.

    https://www.fanragsports.com/nhl/oilers/column-peter-chiarellis-winning-reputation-unearned/amp/

    I’ve had a hard time with the Russell signing since it hinders our ability to improve our blue line for several years and reflects such poor player assessment and cap management–not to mention clogging our top four with three left shot defensemen. I also don’t think that Russell and that price is at all a liquid asset.

  53. McSorley33 says:

    I will tell you this: Nuge for an established RHD and signing Martin Hanzal probably gets my balance photo published. I hate hate hate the thought of it but that’s what the team needs to have the kind of structure required.
    *****************************************************************************
    x 10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

    Game changer. If PC could ever pull this off….

    RNH for Faulk….sign Hanzal.

    Winnipeg radio is saying Noah Hanifan is the one being shopped though…

  54. Cassandra says:

    What I really love about the Russell justifications is the assumption that Russell’s contract is tradeable and hence doesn’t represent any long term risk.

    We all know this isn’t true. Every long term contract is a risk precisely because if a player underperforms you cannot just trade the player without either retaining salary or taking a contract back.

    This is true about every player. Not just Russell. If Russell plays poorly or even average, his contract won’t be tradeable next year, let alone in three years.

    For the same reason if Lucic didn’t have a NMC there is no way the Oilers could trade him.

    So you have, on the one hand, a trade justified by the necessity of salary cap space, salary cap space that is only required because the Oilers have contracts that are unmoveable because of bad free agent signings.

  55. Lewis Grant says:

    Finalize long term deal for Leon Draisaitl. This is JOB TWO.

    Can someone reassure me that Leon Draisaitl’s 77-point season just before a big new contract is substantially different from Jordan Eberle’s 76-point season just before a big new contract?

    Remember, we just traded Eberle for 50 cents on the dollar because of that big contract.

    I loved watching Leon in the playoffs. He was great. But so was Fernando Pisani. Anyone else remember the terrible contracts we gave out after that playoff run? This one could be a lot worse.

    Leon has not yet established that he can drive a line at center by himself. (And no, four playoff games with the opposition distracted by McDavid doesn’t count. Narratives get written very quickly in playoff time. Chiarelli got carried away by Eberle’s poor narrative. I hope he doesn’t get carried away by Leon’s good narrative.)

  56. Scungilli Slushy says:

    GCW_69:
    “Find a stopgap measure to replace Andrej Sekera’s minutes. (Kris Russell)”

    I think we have different definitions of “stopgap”.

    It’s more likely he has Russell in the “Find a second pairing RHD with two-way acumen.” role and will go to market looking at LHD and RHD that will accept a 1 year deal feeling Russell can play both sides.

    I don’t agree with it, and I think Russell is a bad bet for 4 years, and we have learned the hard way with Fayne and Pouliot that $4M cap hits are not easy to trade if the market thinks the player is done but not LTIR material.

    Good points, but they don’t have to keep him. His contract looks like a compromise between movement and guaranteed money, which he would want at his age.

    I think it is fair to say that Russell is playing at a much higher level than Ference was from day one. I don’t see (barring the unforeseen) a sudden drop in play. He is mobile and healthy. These are the things that make players decline or cause a drop off, often related.

  57. McSorley33 says:

    Ryan,

    Thanks for the link/article…..

  58. leadfarmer says:

    Lewis Grant:
    Finalize long term deal for Leon Draisaitl. This is JOB TWO.

    Can someone reassure me that Leon Draisaitl’s 77-point season just before a big new contract is substantially different from Jordan Eberle’s 76-point season just before a big new contract?

    Remember, we just traded Eberle for 50 cents on the dollar because of that big contract.

    I loved watching Leon in the playoffs.He was great.But so was Fernando Pisani.Anyone else remember the terrible contracts we gave out after that playoff run?This one could be a lot worse.

    Leon has not yet established that he can drive a line at center by himself.(And no, four playoff games with the opposition distracted by McDavid doesn’t count.Narratives get written very quickly in playoff time.Chiarelli got carried away by Eberle’s poor narrative.I hope he doesn’t get carried away by Leon’s good narrative.)

    I dont think Pisani is a fair comparison for anyone. He was so sick with ulcerative colitis that it robbed him of his career and 2.5 mil per year wasn’t a high amount in the first place

  59. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lewis Grant:
    Finalize long term deal for Leon Draisaitl. This is JOB TWO.

    Can someone reassure me that Leon Draisaitl’s 77-point season just before a big new contract is substantially different from Jordan Eberle’s 76-point season just before a big new contract?

    Remember, we just traded Eberle for 50 cents on the dollar because of that big contract.

    I loved watching Leon in the playoffs.He was great.But so was Fernando Pisani.Anyone else remember the terrible contracts we gave out after that playoff run?This one could be a lot worse.

    Leon has not yet established that he can drive a line at center by himself.(And no, four playoff games with the opposition distracted by McDavid doesn’t count.Narratives get written very quickly in playoff time.Chiarelli got carried away by Eberle’s poor narrative.I hope he doesn’t get carried away by Leon’s good narrative.)

    100 % agreed. Bridge deals are far better. It’s different for McDavid, but a bridge is still right. I have broken numbers down and it doesn’t impact player income or the team’s finances much to bridge.

    What it does impact is control. It extends control into a player’s 30’s when timed correctly, meaning the team doesn’t have to resign the player at peak value and also be at risk of losing them in prime.

    In their 30’s they can be resigned or dealt for max value before decline.

    The money is the close because if the player does develop as expected, he will receive a big payday that is more than if he signed for 8 years after ELC. However the team can afford to do that because the player is worth it. They are ideally 25-26.

    If there is no bridge, the player still needs signing at 27-28 at their peak value because the reputation is at it’s highest. The amount will be even higher than a contract two years or so previous, and the risk of loss is huge.

    Money is less of an issue for elite players than keeping control of them is. For less than elite, money is the key thing, they cannot be overpaid, and that is where Eberle and Nuge ended up.

  60. Ryan says:

    Lewis Grant,

    Eberle shot at 18.9% during the year that he had 34 goals and 76 points.

    Last year, Draisatl had a 16.9 shooting percentage to score 29 goals.

    For context, Alexander Ovechkin and Ilya Kovalchuk are career 12/14 percent shooters respectively. So don’t bet on Draisatl being a career 16.9% shooter.

    The other issue is that Draisatl has historically performed poorly when playing without one of McDavid or Hall.

    I’m a huge Draisatl fan myself, but there is a pretty good chance that he could end up wildly overpaid based on his results last season.

  61. jm363561 says:

    Now children, it is really really great that so many of you in Grades 1, 2 and 3 are interested in hockey and posting here and Uncle LoweTide is very happy about this providing you have done your homework first. But when we post we must always try and understand other points of view and be respectful, even to Flames fans (.. spit… ). As Uncle LoweTide has said many times, we can disagree but still share a root beer.

    Looking around dears I think this might just be a really really good time to have a teeny weeny review of how things are going here:

    June 23 / 27, Edited Highlights

    – When you have something interesting to say, it will be the first time.
    – .just maybe the guy knows a little more about building a championship team than you and the
    rest of these asinine fans that criticize every move
    – What has to happen for you to actually leave the site for real?
    – But you do get bonus points for not naming yourself after a washed up Trump sock puppet, so
    you got that going for ya.
    – You have a lot to say for a Trump sock puppet!
    – Anyone who would trade Nugent Hopkins and Eberele is basically an idiot.
    – You absolutely come here to stir your little troll-y pot. You are a troll……I understand you can’t get intellectual satisfaction from Flames blogs because most Flames fans are either illiterate or soulless bores, but those are your people, go be with them.

    Sob.

    Now it was really really nice to hear from Grandpa Woodguy yesterday but I really really don’t think he is going to want to come back if this is how we are going to behave now is he darlings? Cassandra dear, I know you have the whole multiple personality / trans gender thing going on but please try. Chachi, please stop feeding trolls; they just keep coming back. Season Not Played, maybe a short note to Woodguy sweetie. Everyone else FFS.

  62. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Cassandra,

    I was quite precise in what I considered the plan to be and as stated I am completely comfortable with it.

    http://lowetide.ca/2017/06/24/oilers-at-208-phil-kemp/#comment-655280

    The team has picked their four-five men and are building around that. Russell and Lucic are valuable at the outset here to establish team identity, work ethic and common culture. They will be sent packing as need be or if they play well enough they will stay on. Everyone else is auditioning for roles for the next decade and the farm system is being rebuilt. This plan seems logical to me and it has worked for Detroit and Chicago in the recent past.

    And along with a couple others the only thing that matters to me in the end are Stanley Cups. Ever year we hear that winning a Stanley is the hardest trophy in sports, I agree which is why its probably the only thing that matters to the players as well.

    OriginalPouzar: Agree, 100%.

    The Russell signing closes the door on any material improvement to the defensive group (notwithstanding Chia’s end of season presser which expressly stated the need to improve).

    Is it not in any way possible that the four men named Klefbom, Larsson, Benning and Nurse develop year over year and improve the defense with their own better play? That’s normally why one develops a team through the draft and develop model but because Oilers maybe this line of reasoning no longer applies?

  63. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    OK, here it goes. Without trying to be “impossible”, this is simply my opinion. I enjoyed your post and will respond.

    “I think most will say win a Stanley Cup, singular. Myself, I think that is the wrong standard. There is too much luck involved.” *** Although there needs to be some luck, if you luck at the last decade, the cream rises to the top year after year. You have 8 of the last 9 Cups between 3 teams. There has to be more to it than luck.

    “The playoffs matter, but it is the regular season that is the test of quality.” ** IMO I would prefer a team does well in the playoffs, even if they are only OK in the regular season. Most good teams will achieve both, but not all”

    So here is my standard combining both.
    1) Be consistently in the top four in the league in regular season points.
    2) Be the best team in the league some years.
    3) Not flame out in the playoffs, winning at least one pennant.
    *** If you look back over the last 5 years, I am curious which teams would meet your standard. Washington has never won a Pennant. Tampa has not been consistently Top 4 or the best team. Chicago would meet the criteria. I don’t think Pens have been the best team. It is your standard; all that I am looking for is to go back 5 years and see who has meet this standard. If a standard is unrealistic, then I would consider it unfair. IF the standard has been achieved by a few teams. then knock yourself out.

    Winning one Stanley Cup isn’t enough if 1) and 2) aren’t also there. Conversely, if they lose in the finals but are consistently excellent, I won’t complain. I don’t think that is too high an expectation for a team that was gifted McDavid.” *** IMO it’s a dangerous game to start throwing up asterisks with a Cup win. IE: I am glad they won but they didn’t score 10 Power play goals so I don’t count that Cup. IE: I am glad they won, but they won 2 games in game 7 OT, so they got lucky, so I don’t count that Cup. Again, they are your standards.

    My standards would be 1) Must win 1 Stanley Cup 2) Be a contending team year in and year out; they don’t need to finish 1st or be Top 4 every year, but they do need to be a Top 10 Team annually and make the playoffs

    cheers

  64. godot10 says:

    Cassandra:
    I am curious, what is the line in the sand for success/failure from the Chiarelli regime over the next five years?

    I think most will say win a Stanley Cup, singular.Myself, I think that is the wrong standard.There is too much luck involved.

    The playoffs matter, but it is the regular season that is the test of quality.So here is my standard combining both.

    1) Be consistently in the top four in the league in regular season points.
    2) Be the best team in the league some years.
    3) Not flame out in the playoffs, winning at least one pennant.

    Winning one Stanley Cup isn’t enough if 1) and 2) aren’t also there.Conversely, if they lose in the finals but are consistently excellent, I won’t complain.I don’t think that is too high an expectation for a team that was gifted McDavid.

    We shouldn’t judge Chiarelli on a sliding scale.Every single thing outside of Chiarelli’s moves have created the possibility for success. They were given McDavid at exactly the same time as the rest of the West is on the decline.Making the playoffs is not good enough.Being 8th in the league in goals for is not good enough.Being competitive is not good enough.

    This is the context of expectations for those that are unhappy with Chiarelli.Even I think the naysayers who are worried about the playoffs are overdoing it.The Oilers will make the playoffs next year.But making the playoffs in spite of the general manager is the tyranny of low expectations.

    It doesn’t matter where our line in the sand is (#EvenBylsmaWonACupWithCrosby). The only line in the sand that matters is where McDavid draws the line in the sand.

  65. slopitch says:

    LT I see we have a similar opinion on Nuge for Faulk + signing a guy like Hanzal. Would be a tough pill to swallow but might be the right call if available. I like our team. Tough.

    I’m in Toronto right now and had a couple interesting chats with some leafs fans at a BBQ yesterday that I went to. One guy really seemed to know hockey and was insistent that the Oilers are legit. I responded by telling him how I thought the leafs were right in the mix and with the right d hire were as good or better then the Oilers. He responds by saying how he thought the bigger need for the Leafs was a player like Lucic. He talked about physicality in a season and playoffs as well as the need to insulate Matthews from leadership responsibilities. His opinion was interesting to me cause it was kind of contrary to how I saw the season progress and while I thought Lucic was ok, I didn’t really see a big impact. Or perhaps I’m blinded by the contract in the last 3 years. Found out later that this guy I thought seemed to know a lot about hockey was the former captain of the University of Waterloo hockey team. So it’s really got me wondering about Lucic’s value.

    Anyways, good post LT. We should have some answers on the roster after 97/29’s contracts get announced. It would sure be nice to add a couple ufa’s on one year deals. Buying at the deadline would still costs assets and the pipeline isn’t loaded to support that.

  66. jtblack says:

    Question: Can Jordan Oesterle not be our #3LHD until Sekera is back? Russell plays right side. Just trying to see if there are internal solutions until Sekera returns . I thought Oesterle was OK when he played a few years ago ..

  67. hags9k says:

    I really hope they get Krazy Eyes done at a good cap number. Call me old fashioned but he is a very important piece of the puzzle. Teams will notice the big tanks Maroon, Lucic, Nurse, but it’s also good for them to know there is a nuclear submarine lurking just offshore.

    Don’t even breathe on 97 or 29.

  68. Chachi says:

    jm363561,

    Feel free to ignore anything I post.

  69. Cassandra says:

    I love the argument that improvement is going to occur organically through development of younger players.

    This is an argument to not trade those players. It isn’t an argument to not improve the team outside of those players.

    If Klefbom wins the Norris trophy next year it doesn’t mean that Chiarelli trading Eberle was a good idea. They are independent events.

    If Benning solidifies his reputation as a very good player it doesn’t mean that signing Russell was a good idea. They are independent events.

    More and more I am coming to think that some portion of the fanbase does not understand the concept of independent events.

    This is why you can’t judge the general manager on the results of the team alone.

  70. Pouzar says:

    jtblack: Can Jordan Oesterle not be our #3LHD until Sekera is back?

    Yes. He is the best.

  71. Lewis Grant says:

    leadfarmer,

    Well, OK. But the Oilers still should have known that they were overpaying for a playoff run. They did the same for Moreau and a few others (memory fails me – Staios maybe?)

    Or we could just compare Draisaitl’s regular season to Eberle’s. Surely even those who take issue with Corsi have to acknowledge SH% regression.

    Besides, aren’t players supposed to be taking discounts with us now, because they want to play with McDavid?

    (I guess Russell’s contract disproves that theory.)

  72. rickithebear says:

    please do not fail o qualify Draisatl .
    per the Blackhawks.

  73. Lewis Grant says:

    Just to add, I still think Barkov is a better comparable than Tarasenko. St. Louis took a big gamble on Tarasenko, even if it paid off. But there are plenty of other gambles that don’t pay off. And Tarasenko wasn’t playing on a line with a generational talent.

    Besides, when you get one guy to take a cheap deal, then you can pressure others to do likewise. Look at Yzerman with Kucherov.

    Chiarelli should subtly ask Draisaitl how badly he wants to keep on playing with McDavid – or how badly he wants to get traded to New Jersey or whatever team is being coached by Ken Hitchcock.

  74. jtblack says:

    Jason Gregor was just on Lowetide. Totally agree with his take on Foo and Hamonic ..!

  75. godot10 says:

    GCW_69: They can always play Russell on the right side again.Kulikov is good because his upside is fairly big (bounce back from injury) and he can move the puck, and if he hits, it would give the team options come the deadline.

    Most teams (likely Ottawa) can offer Kulikov more than one year. The Oilers can’t.

    Hainsey is the guy I would target.

  76. Chachi says:

    Cassandra:
    I love the argument that improvement is going to occur organically through development of younger players.

    This is an argument to not trade those players.It isn’t an argument to not improve the team outside of those players.

    If Klefbom wins the Norris trophy next year it doesn’t mean that Chiarelli trading Eberle was a good idea.They are independent events.

    If Benning solidifies his reputation as a very good player it doesn’t mean that signing Russell was a good idea.They are independent events.

    More and more I am coming to think that some portion of the fanbase does not understand the concept of independent events.

    This is why you can’t judge the general manager on the resultsof the team alone.

    1) Be consistently in the top four in the league in regular season points.
    2) Be the best team in the league some years.
    3) Not flame out in the playoffs, winning at least one pennant.

    Which of these is not the “results of the team alone”?

  77. Lewis Grant says:

    Pouzar: jtblack: Can Jordan Oesterle not be our #3LHD until Sekera is back?
    Yes. He is the best.

    I agree. This is a guy who has shown flashed at the NHL level, and has never been given much of an actual chance. (Reinhart was another.) We complain about the Oilers not giving Lander another chance. Oesterle put up ~0.75 PPG as a d-man in the AHL. Give him some playing time with Sekera out and see what he can do. No need to re-sign Russell!

    Oh, too late….

  78. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    “This is why you can’t judge the general manager on the results of the team alone.” – In your first post you asked all of us to do exactly this; judge the team (set criteria) on their results alone. Now you are saying it’s unfair to do so?

    Which is it?

  79. Side says:

    Cassandra:
    I love the argument that improvement is going to occur organically through development of younger players.

    This is an argument to not trade those players.It isn’t an argument to not improve the team outside of those players.

    If Klefbom wins the Norris trophy next year it doesn’t mean that Chiarelli trading Eberle was a good idea.They are independent events.

    If Benning solidifies his reputation as a very good player it doesn’t mean that signing Russell was a good idea.They are independent events.

    More and more I am coming to think that some portion of the fanbase does not understand the concept of independent events.

    This is why you can’t judge the general manager on the resultsof the team alone.

    Where are these posters that are saying what you’re saying?

    You get yourself worked up over something no one said most of the time.

  80. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack:
    Jason Gregor was just on Lowetide. Totally agree with his take on Foo and Hamonic ..!

    Which was?

  81. Cassandra says:

    jtblack:
    Cassandra,

    “This is why you can’t judge the general manager on the results of the team alone.” –In your first post you asked all of us to do exactly this; judge the team (set criteria) on their results alone.Now you are saying it’s unfair to do so?

    Which is it?

    Defense of Chiarelli begins and ends with how the team did last year, so the first post was an attempt to get some kind of line in the sand for evaluation on how the team does, if that is going to be the standard.

    The other, was in reference to the coming year, where the improvement is coming internally, which if it happens, I can already see being used to justify moves that had nothing to do with the improvement.

    Over the long term, I can accept the holistic standard, provided it is sufficiently high.

  82. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer,

    He thinks NHL teams / media get way to hyped on on college free agents (Foo) … He says they are free agents for a reason, and everyone builds them up to be possible impact players at the NHL level, which rarely occurs. He said Cagguila had way better stats than Foo, and was a year younger and look how his first year went? He thinks NCAA players can be OK players, but won’t amount the hype generated around where they sign ..

    The Oilers have Kris Russell. They chose not to sign Hamonic (or got out bid) and sign russell instead. The Russell signing cost same money as Hamonic. Hamonic is the better player overall many will agree. But for the Oilers to sign Hamonic over Russell, it would have cost them a 1st and 2 – 2nd round picks .. A huge price to pay for what Gregor said is a marginal upgrade.

  83. godot10 says:

    I think a guy one signs to a 4-year contract is considered a core player, not a stop-gap player.

    Chiarelli and McLellan “own” Kris Russell. They bought a guy who had a career 0.938 save percentage behind him, a year after he couldn’t find a contract, and a guy with a wonky groin/hamstring.

    #ChiarelliDidn’tLearnMuchInBostonFromBelichekAndEpstein

  84. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    “Over the long term, I can accept the holistic standard, provided it is sufficiently high.” .. Out of curiosity, In the last 5 years which teams have met your standard set in your original post?

  85. jtblack says:

    jtblack,

    Further to the Flames signing Hamonic he said … Flames were 12th in the League in Goals Against last year, and they added more defense .. they were 21st in goals for and did not address that need … He feels like the Flames are not much better than they were last year and that they paid a huge price to be “not much better”

  86. Ducey says:

    Lewis Grant:
    leadfarmer,

    Well, OK.But the Oilers still should have known that they were overpaying for a playoff run.They did the same for Moreau and a few others (memory fails me – Staios maybe?)

    Or we could just compare Draisaitl’s regular season to Eberle’s.Surely even those who take issue with Corsi have to acknowledge SH% regression.

    Besides, aren’t players supposed to be taking discounts with us now, because they want to play with McDavid?

    (I guess Russell’s contract disproves that theory.)

    I have your concerns too. But isn’t the risk that Leon goes out and gets an offer sheet at some point?

  87. Ryan says:

    slopitch,

    I’ve been banging on the Nuge for Faulk drum for as long as anyone.

    However, I am pretty sure the Russell signing has scuttled any chance of that happening.

    For the Oilers, they can’t afford to pay five dmen over $4m.

  88. Scungilli Slushy says:

    McDavid and Drai are both UFA in the summer of 2022. I had said bridge deals, but they would have to be short enough to sign them again as RFA’s. It would be foolish to sign a bridge straight to UFA.

    Really that can only be two year bridge contracts. If it’s three, there is only one RFA year left and the player has the hammer.

    We probably see 8 years for both, and that takes them a couple of years past the new CBA which expires the same year they become UFA’s.

  89. McSorley33 says:

    I am calling a Carolina / Colorado deal….

  90. godot10 says:

    jtblack:
    jtblack,

    Further to the Flames signing Hamonic he said …Flames were 12th in the League in Goals Against last year, and they added more defense .. they were 21st in goals for and did not address that need … He feels like the Flames are not much better than they were last year and that they paid a huge price to be “not much better”

    The Oilers focused on improving their defense last year…i.e. Hall for Larsson, signing Russell, Gryba…the offense improved as much as the defense improved.

    When one has an above average top 4 D, the forwards are going to produce more.

  91. Ryan says:

    jtblack,

    Assuming that Hamonic has a rebound season, you’re comparing a number 2 dman to a #5.

    That’s not a marginal upgrade.

    Think of the picks it will take and retained salary to move Russell’s contract in a year or two.

  92. Lewis Grant says:

    Ducey,

    There are very few offer sheets in today’s NHL, because GMs know they will almost certainly be matched. Furthermore, if a GM makes an offer sheet, he is turning his team into a target for no good reason. (Kevin Lowe knows that, which is part of the reason why he had to extend Hall/Ebs/Nuge so early.) The only successful offer sheet (Penner) was against a totally cap-strapped team, which we are not.

    But suppose a GM decides to do it anyways. Worst case scenario: Leon gets an offer sheet at ~$7.5 per. Then you match it. I doubt any offer sheet (however unlikely) is going to be much worse than the bad contract that we are likely to give him anyways.

    Nobody offer sheeted Drew Doughty, even after he had been Olympic Team Canada’s best defenseman at age 20. I suspect Drai is safe.

  93. godot10 says:

    Bridge deals are ill-advised for McDavid and Draisaitl because they would expire before the next CBA, meaning both sides would be in a quandary about what to sign for when they expire.

    McDavid on a five year deal, and Draisaitl on a seven year deal make the most sense in the context of when the CBA expires….Draisaitl’s expiring one year after McDavid’s.

  94. Gerta Rauss says:

    Ryan:
    slopitch,

    I’ve been banging on the Nuge for Faulk drum for as long as anyone.

    However, I am pretty sure the Russell signing has scuttled any chance of that happening.

    For the Oilers, they can’t afford to pay five dmen over $4m.

    This is where I’m at as well

    The Oilers signed their 2RD-his name is Kris Russell

    I think we’re shopping for a short term Sekera replacement* and a 7D replacement(Gryba)

    *they could shop for a RH or LH D with 1 year left on his deal and Russell plays the opposite side of who they acquire

  95. Snowman says:

    Bob McKenzie‏Verified account @TSNBobMcKenzie 58s59 seconds ago
    More
    Zack Kassian has agreed to terms with EDM on a three-year deal worth a total of $5.85M.

    I like this deal. Shade under 2M. Solid signing.

  96. Lewis Grant says:

    Ryan: Assuming that Hamonic has a rebound season, you’re comparing a number 2 dman to a #5.
    That’s not a marginal upgrade.

    This all day. How quickly people forget! Hamonic is the player that we were hoping Larsson would become (and thankfully, it appears that Larsson is becoming.)

    As for the argument that Hamonic cost picks, but Russell only cost money:
    A 30-point (or even 50-point) one-dimensional winger like Strome can be had for only money every off-season. Teddy Purcell put up almost 50 points with us! See also Stempniak, Vrbata, etc. You trade for a player well above replacement level (i.e. Hamonic, not Strome). Surely Eberle+one pick would have gotten us Hamonic. IMO Hamonic + Vrbata – one pick >>>>> Russell + Strome.

    Look how far Nashville got with no-name forwards and a deep D. That might be Calgary *spits* after getting Hamonic.

    (If Hamonic has serious and permanent damage on his knee, then I acknowledge I could be wrong on this. But as far as any of us knows, that’s not the case.)

  97. Gerta Rauss says:

    Snowman: Bob McKenzie‏Verified account @TSNBobMcKenzie 58s59 seconds ago
    More
    Zack Kassian has agreed to terms with EDM on a three-year deal worth a total of $5.85M.

    Cap is under $2m-I can live with that

  98. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    slopitch,

    Maybe this is the “fracture”? Last season there was a consistent refrain from other players, teams and team brass that the Oilers were a fundamentally different team. Harder to play against, tougher, more together, you name it we heard it and we blew it off as smoke.

    The vast majority on this blog (myself included) took a longggggggg time to come around to the idea that last years Oilers were actually a good hockey team.

    Minutes after winning the Stanley Cup Evgeni Malkin striaght up said “watch out for the Oilers and the Leafs, they’re gonna be good.” (or something similar).

    But alas a good chunk of us spent this last weekend here refraining very loudly that our team is already screwed.

    At some point, maybe after a Cup, we’ll get used to the idea that for the first time we have a good hockey club. But something tells me it goes much deeper than that and has its roots in the analytics vs. old boys divide. We wait.

    Cassandra,

    This is having your cake and eating it to.

    “This is an argument to not trade those players.It isn’t an argument to not improve the team outside of those players.”

    I see this as recognizing you have some good players trending up, who are also in a contract years, so there is no reason to go and blow a bunch of picks/cap to trade for a guy who will end up blocking these players in the very year you need to see take the next step.

    At some point you have to agree that its possible and maybe not hair brained for a coach/GM to have faith that players will develop and will be ready to take on more responsibilities no?

    The GM and Coaches have chosen their players and believe in those players to take the next step. So far that is all any of those 4 men have done in the NHL careers so I think this is a fairly reasonable bet to make.

    Russell can be leapfrogged if Benning/Nurse are better than him, he’s already shown he’s a team player and the coach loves him for it.

    Hamonic is one off-season removed from demanding a trade and then having a very very bad year to follow that up.

    I don’t understand the dislike for a GM who through these dealings didn’t intentionally block players the Oilers have under control while simultaneously making future procurement dependent upon FAs by bleeding draft picks.

    This divergence in opinion goes back to last year’s deadline. Chia came straight out and said “I want to give the guys that got us here a shot.” Some people freaked out, others took it in stride and the result was a Game 7 loss in the 2nd round that needed some really really poor officiating to orchestrate.

    Some of the guys that played well will get paid well. Others that didn’t play well were sent packing.

    A few were likely told “you need to shape up” and maybe that’s why Lucic is training with Terrell Owens this off-season. Say what you want about the man’s personality but TO was an athletic freak back in the day.

    https://twitter.com/27MilanLucic/status/871826905464397824

    It seems like there is a continuous rationale underlying these moves and as stated before they seem perfectly logical to me and it follows the verbal cues from everyone that “the Oilers are still a growth team.”

  99. Stanley says:

    Ryan,

    If they were willing to give up Faulk for Nuge it would have happened already. We got Larsson for Hall & Strome for Ebs so i don’t think there is any universe that Nuge gets us Faulk.

  100. Oddspell says:

    Gerta Rauss: This is where I’m at as well

    The Oilers signed their 2RD-his name is Kris Russell

    I think the Oilers signed their 2RD and his name is Matt Benning. I think Russell is here just in case they’re wrong. If Benning’s the wrong guy, they need Russell long term. If he’s not, he’s gone before year 3.

  101. VOR says:

    Say It Ain’t So,

    Could you please expand on your throw away comment?

    “But something tells me it goes much deeper than that and has its roots in the analytics vs. old boys divide.”

    I would love to know how you think this divide figures in to the growing body of fans that think there is a non-trivial risk of the Oilers running aground on the shoals of Cap Hell Island?

  102. Ryan says:

    Gerta Rauss: This is where I’m at as well

    The Oilers signed their 2RD-his name is Kris Russell

    I think we’re shopping for a short term Sekera replacement* and a 7D replacement(Gryba)

    *they could shop for a RH or LH D with 1 year left on his deal and Russell plays the opposite side of who they acquire

    Watch Chiarelli find his Sekera replacement by trading Jujhar and a 3rd round pick to McPhee for Alexi Emelin.

  103. Oddspell says:

    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers

    The #Oilers have issued qualifying offers to Leon Draisaitl, Joey Laleggia, Dillon Simpson & Bogdan Yakimov: https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/blog-oilers-issue-qualifying-offers-to-four/c-290158852

  104. npanciroli says:

    Kassian deal is fantastic IMO

  105. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack:
    leadfarmer,

    He thinks NHL teams / media get way to hyped on on college free agents (Foo) … He says they are free agents for a reason, and everyone builds them up to be possible impact players at the NHL level, which rarely occurs.He said Cagguila had way better stats than Foo, and was a year younger and look how his first year went?He thinks NCAA players can be OK players, but won’t amount the hype generated around where they sign ..

    The Oilers have Kris Russell. They chose not to sign Hamonic (or got out bid) and sign russell instead.The Russell signing cost same money as Hamonic.Hamonic is the better player overall many will agree. But for the Oilers to sign Hamonic over Russell, it would have cost them a 1st and 2 – 2nd round picks .. A huge price to pay for what Gregor said is a marginal upgrade.

    Ha!!. Thats what ive been saying all weekend. Although i think Hamonic is better than a marginal upgrade on Russell I dont think he is a 1st rounder and 2 seconds upgrade on Russell.

  106. leadfarmer says:

    Looks like the pitchforks went back into the shed after the Kassian signing. Thats a very good deal

  107. jeetz says:

    Ryan: Here’s a reasonable article. The author seems fairly unbiased as an NYU grad she’s not a homer.

    https://www.fanragsports.com/nhl/oilers/column-peter-chiarellis-winning-reputation-unearned/amp/

    I’ve had a hard time with the Russell signing since it hinders our ability to improve our blue line for several years and reflects such poor player assessment and cap management–not to mention clogging our top four with three left shot defensemen. I also don’t think that Russell and that price is at all a liquid asset.

    A lot of hate for our GM.

    Couple of points

    1. Larsson is a 1st pair defenseman, though probably a #2 because of limited offense with an amazing contract.

    2. Lucic’s contract is terrible in length but don’t forget he Was only 28 when he signed and is tradable at 34 and is paid 5/4 million last 2 years

    3. Even I can admit that No way we make the playoffs without Larsson and Lucic and I was devastated when Taylor hall was traded

    4. Rienhart trade was terrible on many levels

    5. Eberle was a terrified marshmallow during the playoffs. Careers are made and destroyed by playoff performance

    6. Sekera’s injury probably forced our GMs hand with Russell but let’s really look at the contract…

    The contract is really creative actually.

    5/4.5/4/2.5 = 16 million

    What is interesting is there is a 1 mil signing bonus July 1 of the summer of year 4.

    A limited no trade last 2 years.

    So the oilers end up paying 14.5 mil in 3 years for and average of 4.8 per year BUT have a cap hit of 4 mil.

    Then the oilers can trade him to a team who will pay the remaining 1.5 mil BUT Russel carries a cap hit of 4 mil. Very attractive to a team who needs to reach the cap floor or has cap space, but doesn’t want to pay a lot.

    Really, to the Oilers it is a 3 year deal with a cap hit of 4 mil. A raise of 0.9 cap hit from last year of 3.1 mil.

    Everybody wins

    I think it is wrong to roast Chairelli though I see that we should be guarded about giving him the keys to the city just yet. Hockey is a results business and he has the results for now. Let’s see what he can do with mcdavid and drai contract, and how he replaces Sekera this summer

  108. rickithebear says:

    Oilers 1st comp:
    Russell Larsson 1.83 EVGA60
    Russel .73 EVA60
    Larsson 1.10 EVA60

    Klefbom – Larsson 2.27 EVGA60
    Larsson .40 EVA60
    Klefbom .57 EVA60

    Nurse – Larsson 3.71 EVGA60

    I would hope Russel is back for a different role!

  109. jtblack says:

    Ryan, & GODOT10

    I was just paraphrasing what Jason Gregor had said on lowetide …..one commentator asked what he said …

  110. Truth says:

    I had forgotten all about Big Yak. Must have had to issue a qualifying offer to keep his rights. I hope he returns to the system, he is much needed in Bakersfield.

    I sure hope Marleau is the one mid range short term FA forward the Oilers sign. He would offer a ton of flexibility throughout the lineup.

  111. JDI says:

    leadfarmer: Looks like the pitchforks went back into the shed after the Kassian signing.

    Stauffer purportedly hinting that the Draisaitl negotiations aren’t going very well.

    STOOPID CHIA!

  112. JDI says:

    Ryan: to McPhee for Alexi Emelin.

    Emelin and Lucic on the same team…

  113. Gerta Rauss says:

    Oddspell: I think the Oilers signed their 2RD and his name is Matt Benning. I think Russell is here just in case they’re wrong. If Benning’s the wrong guy, they need Russell long term. If he’s not, he’s gone before year 3.

    That may well be the case, but my comment was more about where we’re at as of today, and what we’re shopping for to complete the roster prior to game 1

    I don’t believe a 2RD with term is on the agenda (ie:Faulk et al)

    I think we’re looking for a UFA signing (or trading for a D with 1 year on his contract) and maybe a 7D signed (Gryba)

    I hope you’re right about trading Russell when the time comes-moving older D men with term and dollars is easier said than done

  114. Truth says:

    rickithebear:
    Oilers 1st comp:
    Russell Larsson 1.83 EVGA60
    Russel .73 EVA60
    Larsson 1.10 EVA60

    Klefbom – Larsson2.27 EVGA60
    Larsson .40 EVA60
    Klefbom .57 EVA60

    Nurse – Larsson 3.71 EVGA60

    I would hope Russel is back for a different role!

    I found it amusing that a certain local SNet employee was on the radio about a week ago with the statement (paraphrasing): I’ve heard all the naysayers out there saying that Russell only performed well when he’s with Sekera, and that may be true, and I realize Sekera’s out for most of the year, but I don’t care. Sign the man!

    Uhh.

  115. dustrock says:

    Bob said MDavid is definitely getting signed before Draisaitl.

    I guess it’s easier just to give Connor whatever he wants. Draisaitl they’ll have to be careful.

  116. Blackwolf says:

    It’s funny how we feel we have the right to make sweeping and definitive statements. With regards to drafts, trades, signings, etc. We all have the right to an opinion, but this whole “our gm is an idiot, he’s incompetent, etc.” Is just foolish.
    We have access to what, maybe 25% of the actual information after the fact, yet we think we have the right to be judge, jury and executioner.
    1) mcdavid specifically told chia that he and the leadership group wanted Russel back if it was possible.
    2) eberle asked for a trade to happen quickly or he would go public with his request.
    3) hall demanded out because they refused to use Gain pods to wash his jock after games.
    And so on. Any if this accurate? I dunno, but it holds as much water as half the theories we hear.
    Keep in mind that it wasn’t that long ago that mact was being lauded in this comment section for his ‘out of the box thinking’ for bringing in belov and others.

  117. Gerta Rauss says:

    That Yakimov deal is odd-they must have some idea that Yak2 might still want to play in North America, otherwise why even bother…

  118. Gret99zky says:

    dustrock:

    I guess it’s easier just to give Connor whatever he wants. Draisaitl they’ll have to be careful.

    This.

  119. Ducey says:

    JDI: Stauffer purportedly hinting that the Draisaitl negotiations aren’t going very well.

    STOOPID CHIA!

    As long as they don’t get offer sheeted, I don’t mind them driving a hard bargain with Leon

    They get him on a one year deal at something cheaper and then see if he can put up the same points with most of his time at C away from Connor.

    McDavid is a different story because he will make more than any other player and is the driver on his points.

  120. Ducey says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    That Yakimov deal is odd-they must have some idea that Yak2 might still want to play in North America, otherwise why even bother…

    They can trade his rights to VAN for a 2nd rounder. Big C!

  121. trencan says:

    jeetz: A lot of hate for our GM.

    Couple of points

    1. Larsson is a 1st pair defenseman, though probably a #2 because of limited offense with an amazing contract.

    2. Lucic’s contract is terrible in length but don’t forget he Was only 28 when he signed and is tradable at 34 and is paid 5/4 million last 2 years

    3. Even I can admit that No way we make the playoffs without Larsson and Lucic and I was devastated when Taylor hall was traded

    4. Rienhart trade was terrible on many levels

    5. Eberle was a terrified marshmallow during the playoffs. Careers are made and destroyed by playoff performance

    6. Sekera’s injury probably forced our GMs hand with Russell but let’s really look at the contract…

    The contract is really creative actually.

    5/4.5/4/2.5 = 16 million

    What is interesting is there is a 1 mil signing bonus July 1 of the summer of year 4.

    A limited no trade last 2 years.

    So the oilers end up paying 14.5 mil in 3 years for and average of 4.8 per year BUT have a cap hit of 4 mil.

    Then the oilers can trade him to a team who will pay the remaining 1.5 mil BUT Russel carries a cap hit of 4 mil. Very attractive to a team who needs to reach the cap floor or has cap space, but doesn’t want to pay a lot.

    Really, to the Oilers it is a 3 year deal with a cap hit of 4 mil. A raise of 0.9 cap hit from last year of 3.1 mil.

    Everybody wins

    I think it is wrong to roast Chairelli though I see that we should be guarded about giving him the keys to the city just yet. Hockey is a results business and he has the results for now. Let’s see what he can do with mcdavid and drai contract, and how he replaces Sekera this summer

    I also believe Russel will be traded and both sides of the deal know about it. We need to develope Ethan Bear in next two years in AHL.

    I also think Andrej will not be an Oiler in 2019/20. Or at least Oilers will try to trade him… because of salary….

  122. OilSafety says:

    Having Yak2 back in the AHL would sure help with center depth.

    I read a comment on here recently that he was signed in the KHL for next season too. What has to happen for the Oilers to bring him back over?

    With Letestu on the last year of his deal and Caguilla looking like a winger, I gotta think Yak2 could push for a spot if hes got the wheels.

    Does anyone remember what his skating is like?

  123. JDI says:

    Ducey: As long as they don’t get offer sheeted

    Burkie says revenge is a dish best served cold.

  124. JDI says:

    OilSafety: Does anyone remember what his skating is like?

    Good for a guy as big as a Kamaz 4911.

  125. The Trade Guy says:

    JDI: Burkie says revenge is a dish best served cold.

    Haha that would be funny but Calgary doesn’t have the cap or the draft pick assets to pay the compensation.

  126. ashley says:

    This Spencer Foo fellow is making his situation unnecessarily dramatic. Perhaps it’s a negotiating ploy, but it sure puts a lot of pressure on the young man.

    Statistically speaking, there is a reasonable chance that he never becomes an NHL regular. There is a good chance he ends up as a bubble players/fourth liner or never becomes an NHL regular.

    He (or his agent) is playing this like he’s a sure fire top 6 NHL’er. Those are big boots to fill.

  127. Bulging Twine says:

    Yakupov not expected to be qualified at the required 2.5 in STL

  128. Ryan says:

    OilSafety:
    Having Yak2 back in the AHL would sure help with center depth.

    I read a comment on here recently that he was signed in the KHL for next season too. What has to happen for the Oilers to bring him back over?

    With Letestu on the last year of his deal and Caguilla looking like a winger, I gotta think Yak2 could push for a spot if hes got the wheels.

    Does anyone remember what his skating is like?

    Glacial.

  129. Jaxon says:

    As someone who is bitter about Flames stealing players that might fit the Oilers needs, I decided to do an exercise and search for players who *might* be available and shows up as a better or equal in certain measures such as size, age, points, salary. This is what I found:

    Baseline:
    Travis Hamonic, 26 yrs, 205lbs, 3yrs@$3.86M UFA, 67th ESTOI, 39th in ES PriPts/60.

    Of players who are same age or younger, weigh 195 lbs or more (within 10 lbs of Hamonic), make less than 4M per year and scored at a higher rate of even strength primary points per 60 (top 40 in NHL) while playing close to 16.9 ES minutes or more per game (top 70 in NHL):

    Meet requirements:
    Radko Gudas, 25 yrs, 6’0″, 204lbs, 3yrs@$3.35M UFA, 69th ESTOI (almost top pair minutes), 15th in ES PriPts/60.
    Erik Gudbranson, 25 yrs, 6’5″, 21 lbs, 1yr@$3.5M UFA, 54th ESTOI, 21st in ES PriPts/60. (*note his sample size is a bit smaller)

    Others in picture:
    Trevor vanRiemsdyk, 25 yrs, 6’2″, 188lbs, 1yr@$0.825M RFA, 80th in ESTOI (still top 3D), 31st in ES PriPts/60. (not as much TOI and a little light)
    Jacob Trouba, 23 yrs, 6’3″ 202lbs, 1yr@$2.8125M RFA, 5th in ESTOI, 18th in ES PriPts/60. (not likely available or asset cost too high)
    Nick Jensen, 26 yrs, 6’0″, 195lbs, 2yrs@$0.813M UFA, 120th in ESTOI (still fringe top 4D), 33rd in ES PriPts/60. (not as much TOI and a little light)
    David Savard, 26 yrs, 6’2″, 227lbs, 4yrs@$4.25M UFA, 23rd in ESTOI, 29th in ES PriPts/60. (a bit higher cap hit)
    Justin Faulk, 25 yrs, 6’0″, 215lbs, 3yrs@$4.83M, 17th in ESTOI, 22nd in ES PriPts/60. (higher cap hit)

    Gudas would be a great pickup. Gudbranson will be interesting to keep an eye on as the deadline approaches. Maybe he becomes a rental that the Oilers can re-sign next summer.

  130. Blackwolf says:

    ashley:
    This Spencer Foo fellow is making his situation unnecessarily dramatic.Perhaps it’s a negotiating ploy, but it sure puts a lot of pressure on the young man.

    Statistically speaking, there is a reasonable chance that he never becomes an NHL regular.There is a good chance he ends up as a bubble players/fourth liner or never becomes an NHL regular.

    He (or his agent) is playing this like he’s a sure fire top 6 NHL’er.Those are big boots to fill.

    Twitter just told us that a team has guaranteed him a roster spot. Probably Vegas.
    Don’t know how reputable the source is.

  131. Professor Q says:

    Ryan:
    Lewis Grant,

    Eberle shot at 18.9% during the year that he had 34 goals and 76 points.

    Last year, Draisatl had a 16.9 shooting percentage to score 29 goals.

    For context, Alexander Ovechkin and Ilya Kovalchuk are career 12/14 percent shooters respectively. So don’t bet on Draisatl being a career 16.9% shooter.

    The other issue is that Draisatl has historically performed poorly when playing without one of McDavid or Hall.

    I’m a huge Draisatl fan myself, but there is a pretty good chance that he could end up wildly overpaid based on his results last season.

    This is completely non-factual.

  132. treevojo says:

    jm363561,

    One of those comments was mine.

    It was sarcasm to another poster who I generally get along with all of the time.

    Context.

  133. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10:
    Bridge deals are ill-advised for McDavid and Draisaitl because they would expire before the next CBA, meaning both sides would be in a quandary about what to sign for when they expire.

    McDavid on a five year deal, and Draisaitl on a seven year deal make the most sense in the context of when the CBA expires….Draisaitl’s expiring one year after McDavid’s.

    A 5 year for McDavid means he becomes UFA. It’s not a safe plan for the team, but it might be in the cards from his side.

  134. SwedishPoster says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    That Yakimov deal is odd-they must have some idea that Yak2 might still want to play in North America, otherwise why even bother…

    From what I’ve gathered the sole reason he’s in Russia is family reasons. I don’t have any details but it’s the type of stuff that explains why he had a so so season and didn’t always travel with the team to away games. I only have info from people who heard from guys who heard and so on so don’t take this as any deep undercover inside information, some salt is certainly needed but i would explain why Oilersh kept the lid on after some early confusing info and why they qualified him now.

  135. Bank Shot says:

    jtblack:
    Cassandra,

    “Over the long term, I can accept the holistic standard, provided it is sufficiently high.” .. Out of curiosity, In the last 5 years which teams have met your standard set in your original post?

    Not Pittsburgh or Chicago.

    I think judging the team’s performance by regular season success is a good way to go if you want a more accurate picture of a team’s performance.

    Cass has set the standard so impossibly high though, that the Oilers are sure to fail to reach all of the benchmarks.

    I think finishing top five in 2-3 seasons out of 5 is something we should consider to be a big success.

  136. Truth says:

    ashley:
    This Spencer Foo fellow is making his situation unnecessarily dramatic.Perhaps it’s a negotiating ploy, but it sure puts a lot of pressure on the young man.

    Statistically speaking, there is a reasonable chance that he never becomes an NHL regular.There is a good chance he ends up as a bubble players/fourth liner or never becomes an NHL regular.

    He (or his agent) is playing this like he’s a sure fire top 6 NHL’er.Those are big boots to fill.

    I have to agree. If this is what it’s like for him to sign with an NHL club as a player with absolutely zero pro experience, what is his next contract negotiation going to look like?

    I still would like the Oilers to sign him, but this unnecessary signing drama is too much IMO.

  137. Truth says:

    Blackwolf: Twitter just told us that a team has guaranteed him a roster spot. Probably Vegas.
    Don’t know how reputable the source is.

    Shouldn’t he want to “earn” his spot on the team. Imagine being all of the players in the press box and AHL knowing you’re better and more deserving of this roster spot. Puts the kid in a tough position (well, he put himself in a tough position).

  138. Professor Q says:

    ashley:
    This Spencer Foo fellow is making his situation unnecessarily dramatic.Perhaps it’s a negotiating ploy, but it sure puts a lot of pressure on the young man.

    Statistically speaking, there is a reasonable chance that he never becomes an NHL regular.There is a good chance he ends up as a bubble players/fourth liner or never becomes an NHL regular.

    He (or his agent) is playing this like he’s a sure fire top 6 NHL’er.Those are big boots to fill.

    There seems to be at least one every offseason. Or at least recently.

  139. LMHF#1 says:

    Good numbers on Kassian. Good to see.

  140. JDI says:

    Professor Q: There seems to be at least one every offseason. Or at least recently.

    I can see why they would want to see where all the clubs are at, after various drafts and free agent periods, before committing.

    Suck for the fans because we want things NOW! JUST DO IT!!!

  141. Professor Q says:

    Truth: Shouldn’t he want to “earn” his spot on the team.Imagine being all of the players in the press box and AHL knowing you’re better and more deserving of this roster spot.Puts the kid in a tough position (well, he put himself in a tough position).

    He has indeed said that he expects AHL time, at least. Some other top NCAA players in past sessons gave off the impression that they expected/were worth it, yes. Schultz, Vesey, the Detroit players, etc.

  142. Blackwolf says:

    Truth,

    I would say so. On the other hand it would guarantee him almost 2 million gross earnings (2 yrs x whatever the standard). That’s better than a kick in the butt

  143. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    VOR,

    Gladly!

    Cap Hell in this case is limited because of the lack of straight up NMCs and NTC’s everything the Oilers have handed out so far are modified clauses which may makes trades slightly more difficult but not impossible. Similarly, these clauses have been handed out to players who can actually play hockey and whom are not “excessively” over priced based on their contractual terms. Jeetz quoted below does an excellent job of parsing the Lucic/Russell contracts and really only Sekera’s factors into a pool of deals that I would consider “cap hell” causing on the backend.

    jeetz,

    In my post the other day I noted that even if you re-sign both Benning and Nurse at $4 million each (which is a big pay raise) the Oilers devote just over a share of 1/3 the 2018 cap to their entire top-6 through 2022. This level of certainty is something that very few other teams have and if say Klef decides he’s gonna go Supernova next year and puts up 50 points we are talking about a bargain contract. If some of those promising Dmen in the AHL start pushing then you begin trading away Sekera and Russell to make room for them and until you get past Klef’s contract things will only get cheaper for the backend.

    Up front things aren’t really that different when you move away from McD and Drai. Now I won’t get into what those two men may end up making because it is all 100% speculation at this point but aside from them there are the Lucic and RNH deals and that’s about it, everything else either roles over or can be traded away in the near term (thinking Pouliot here).

    We can speculate what it will cost to re-sign JP, Benson, Strome, Cagguila in a few years time sure but I think that’s putting the cart before the horse at the moment. We have no idea what those men can turn into as the sample sizes are too early and too small. But the albatross deals handed out by previous management are very close to running out and are being re-routed to the current core which we all knew was going to happen once that Golden Ticket had an Oilers logo on it.

    My main point with the throwaway was how the Oilers are seen as a team.

    Several posters whom I respect and value as members of this group spent the weekend tossing up advanced stats to show that the Oilers are a) a shitty team carried by Talbot b) a shitty team carried by McDavid c) some other variant of the Oilers being a shitty team who’s window to win is right now so jump through it dammit!

    All these points have varying degrees of truth no question but I also think it somewhat misses what others and what the coaching staff/GM are saying about the team. I don’t think a knowledgeable hockey individual would say that right now the Oilers are the cream of the West, there are some question marks for sure but what they have been saying is that “they’re a different team” and usually follow that remark with some sort of qualifier saying they’re also on the up and up. And this is where my own views come into it.

    I was just as pissed as any fan when the clock ticked down and they lost Game 7, that sucked and yes I do think with a healthy Sekera they could have made a push had they gotten past the Ducks.

    But after I had time to calm down and re-watch a bunch of games, re-read summaries and generally think about the season I got less and less worried.

    The core of this team has been re-set to match McDavid, we can all agree on that. Anyone who is significantly older than McDavid is here in a mentor role, they are not necessarily here long-term.

    Right now every move is designed to get McDavid and his core used to winning in the NHL and setting them up for long-term success. This model will outlive any GM or coach.

    When I look at the core-four there is an awful lot to get excited about.

    I don’t consider this blind faith, there are areas where it can go sideways (specifically with Leon and Benning/Nurse), and of course injuries can and do happen, but based on the year over year progression of the core-four and the periphery I see it as a reasonable bet.

    This is contrasted somewhat I think by analytics folk in regards to Hamonic-Russell (but to defense generally).

    Hamonic has the advanced stats on his side save for last year. Russell is an enigma but by nobodies eye is he fancy. Russell is older, scores less, is left-handed and cost slightly more. Why in gords name would you pay him over Hamonic?

    My thought is that it depends on where you see Matt Benning fitting in. If you overvalue the question marks in Benning’s career (age, experience etc) then Hamonic is obviously a better fit to helping the team win this coming season. However, if as I’m guessing Chia and TMac have done you think he can within a year or two grab hold of that 2RD spot why would you sacrifice picks in order to get a guy who based on his age and contract will almost certainly block that progression and who may not take kindly to some of the younger guys pushing for that 3RD spot in a few years.

    I think this very same mentality is what’s behind the vast majority of moves we’ve seen so far aside from Hall who was traded to fill a need 1RD. From what I can see most of the moves have had the effect of creating “show me” spots for players but without the weird animosity that MacT used in his reign as GM.

    (Apologies for the wall of text)

  144. Oilers8833 says:

    Lewis Grant,

    I have to agree with Lowetide on this. I 100% agree Hamonic is the better player than Russell all day long, but Edmonton’s prospect group is about 4 defencemen deep (none even close to NHL ready) and injured forwards (Benson).

    Is the difference between Russell and Hamonic enough to trade away a big chunk of the next 2 years of drafts? I agree with Gregor as well that arguably the bigger need for Calgary is on the offensive side of the puck and Hamonic wihle good is much stronger on defence and not much of a offensive driver.

    I would also argue that whlle a bit of a gamble at this point, but I think we already have our Hamonic in a much more cost contolled player in Benning.

  145. Ryan says:

    Professor Q: This is completely non-factual.

    Nonsense.

  146. jtblack says:

    Bulging Twine,

    This is interesting. At the time of his deal people felt PC got hosed by “only” getting a 3rd round pick. Looks ok to me now that we are 1 year down the road

  147. dustrock says:

    Did woodguy or anyone do a breakdown of Russell’s stats this last year based on LHD vs. RHD play?

    I wonder if Russell is going to be the replacement for Sekera, and he signs/trades for a RHD, if that makes a difference.

  148. Chachi says:

    treevojo:
    jm363561,

    One of those comments was mine.

    It was sarcasm to another poster who I generally get along with all of the time.

    Context.

    The lecture would have been more effective if the writer demonstrated an ability to understand the conversation that was happening.

  149. DBO says:

    B
    trencan,

    Said same thing yesterday. This is a one year deal for Russell, followed by a controlled asset they can move to make cap space. Hockey people love him, and it’s not a bad deal for a number 4 dman. So move him in next 2 years and it’s a good deal.

    On that note. Was looking at UFA or near ufa dman we could target. Franson fits bill, but I wonder if they see Benning as the 2 RD and look to a possibly cheaper Kris Russell esque option. Would Girardi look good on a one year 1.5 mill deal to play 3RD with Nurse? A better Gryba for not much fighting for a chance to rebuild his value.

    Klefbom. Larsson
    Russell. Benning
    Nurse.Girardi

    No asset cost, which is important.

    A possible target of a cap team with a vet RD is Tampa. Could you pry Stralman , who has 2 years at $4.5 left. Would you move Nurse and a pick or prospect for him? Sign Osterlee, or use Simpson, Jones, or any of the lefttorium in the 6 hole until Sekera is back

    Klefbom. Larsson
    Russell. Stralman
    Osterlee. Benning

    Sekera in for Osterlee come playoffs. That’s a playoff caliber defence . Makes run right now with McDavid entry level deal.

  150. Lewis Grant says:

    Oilers8833: I have to agree with Lowetide on this. I 100% agree Hamonic is the better player than Russell all day long, but Edmonton’s prospect group is about 4 defencemen deep (none even close to NHL ready) and injured forwards (Benson).
    Is the difference between Russell and Hamonic enough to trade away a big chunk of the next 2 years of drafts? I agree with Gregor as well that arguably the bigger need for Calgary is on the offensive side of the puck and Hamonic wihle good is much stronger on defence and not much of a offensive driver.
    I would also argue that whlle a bit of a gamble at this point, but I think we already have our Hamonic in a much more cost contolled player in Benning.

    I’m pretty sure we could have packaged Eberle with one pick (not three) to get Hamonic, which wouldn’t have put too much of a dent in the prospect pool (esp. if the pick was a year or two out).

    I hope you’re right about Benning. Then again, 2016-17 Benning reminds me a lot of 2015-16 Davidson and 2014-15 Marincin. Both of those were traded away for very little after their (perceived) value declined the following year.

  151. JDI says:

    Lewis Grant: I’m pretty sure we could have packaged Eberle with one pick (not three) to get Hamonic

    Because Snow turned down some other deals for players +, it’s widely believed that he didn’t want any cap hits coming back for Hamonic. Speculation is that they’re piling up their chips for a run at a UFA.

  152. jtblack says:

    I read AZ is going to have to sign some FA’s or take a bad contract just to get to the floor. Can’t PC deal with them on Fayne or Pouliot? I know we have to send a prospect their way, but the contracts are not terrible so I think we could do that for Jones / Bear …

    just a thought

  153. hags9k says:

    Great news on Kassian!

    Now it’s time to stress the McDavid contract. This is the most important contact negotiation for the Oilers post cap, and maybe ever. Good luck Chia. I hope Connor realizes he will have to leave some coin on the table in order to be surrounded by a cup calibre team. Long term I think it would be a wise investment for him.

    GOILERS!!

  154. N64 says:

    hags9k:
    Great news on Kassian!

    I hope Connor realizes he will have to leave some coin on the table in order to be surrounded by a cup calibre team.

    GOILERS!!

    Leave money for whom? I would not discount without knowing what Drai gets.

  155. JDI says:

    jtblack: just a thought

    They have 17 players signed, and are about $6M shy of the $55.4M floor. It shouldn’t be that difficult to get compliant.

    https://capfriendly.com/teams/coyotes

  156. dustrock says:

    dustrock:
    Did woodguy or anyone do a breakdown of Russell’s stats this last year based on LHD vs. RHD play?

    I wonder if Russell is going to be the replacement for Sekera, and he signs/trades for a RHD, if that makes a difference.

    On twitter, apparently he was with so many people in such a small sample size when he was playing LHD, it’s hard to lead to any conclusions.

    The assumption is that he’s better on his natural side, so I am therefore assuming we are hoping Chiarelli is going for a RHD right now, not a LHD, correct?

  157. Oilers8833 says:

    Lewis Grant,

    Both Davidson and Marincin were not procured by Chia. I think that Benning gets a lot more rope being a Chia guy and based on his results so far is probably a good bet.

    I was torn on Hamonic, would have been pumped to get him and I think he is better than Russell. But I also want to be a team like Pitts where we have drafted enough talent to add players like Guentzel and Sheary that are both good and cost controlled.

    I think the benefit that we would have in the difference between Hamonic and Russell today (which is also somewhat of a gamble based on last year) isn’t worth potential cost certainty that giving away first and second round picks would give us.

  158. Pescador says:

    JDI: They have 17 players signed, and are about $6M shy of the $55.4M floor. It shouldn’t be that difficult to get compliant.

    https://capfriendly.com/teams/coyotes

    Thanks a lot CBK!
    🙂

  159. Pescador says:

    Blackwolf: Twitter just told us that a team has guaranteed him a roster spot. Probably Vegas.
    Don’t know how reputable the source is.

    The source was his agent,
    Now it’s up to you to decide how reputable I am as a source.

  160. JDI says:

    Pescador: how reputable I am as a source.

    I would rate you Pesky, at best.

  161. Truth says:

    Blackwolf:
    Truth,

    I would say so. On the other hand it would guarantee him almost 2 million gross earnings (2 yrs x whatever the standard). That’s better than a kick in the butt

    I don’t fully understand how the contracts work, but if possible why not give him the minimum NHL/AHL wage and make the rest of amount (of what you’d agreed to in total $) payable as a signing bonus on day 1? Foo gets a good portion of his guaranteed money and still has to fight for a spot on the roster.

  162. Blackwolf says:

    Pescador,

    I trust you without question. Therefore I must trust hi agent. Therefore it must be true.

  163. JDI says:

    Truth: payable as a signing bonus on day 1?

    Strict limits and rules on signing/perf bonuses for entry level contracts. Max signing bonus is $92.5k, and max perf bonuses around $2.8M, but you generally have to be an elite player to hit those bonuses.

    The rules you set for the perf bonuses are also tightly legislated.

  164. jtblack says:

    JDI,

    Thanks for that info!

  165. Diablo says:

    JDI: Because Snow turned down some other deals for players +, it’s widely believed that he didn’t want any cap hits coming back for Hamonic. Speculation is that they’re piling up their chips for a run at a UFA.

    Yep – apparently he turned down JVR + 2018 first from the Leafs.
    https://eyesonisles.com/2017/06/24/new-york-islanders-turned-offer-james-van-riemsdyk/

    This narrative needs to stop today. Its completely false that Snow would have accepted Eberle + 1st for Harmonic.

  166. Diablo says:

    I’m over this Foo kid – kind of a prima donna.

    Caggiula who had way better numbers in college playing center, didn’t arrive with this much drama.

    Let him sign somewhere else.

  167. VOR says:

    Say It Ain’t So,

    Thank you for responding. However, my question was how do you think the divide between the analytics people and the old boys is shaping the current debate/the current reality?

    You raised the issue and I would like clarification is if it is possible.

    Just to remind you, the passage I am seeking clarification on is this one:

    “At some point, maybe after a Cup, we’ll get used to the idea that for the first time we have a good hockey club. But something tells me it goes much deeper than that and has its roots in the analytics vs. old boys divide.”

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    Diablo:
    I’m over this Foo kid – kind of a prima donna.

    Caggiula who had way better numbers in college playing center, didn’t arrive with this much drama.

    Let him sign somewhere else.

    I’m getting a bit annoyed as well but 1) Caggulia did not have better numbers and 2) Caggulia did not play center.

  169. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Messing with Capfriendly here’s a version of 2017-2018 and what the money looks like. I guessed at contracts, your mileage may vary.

    Maroon 3.5 McDavid 13.5 Drai 7
    Lucic 6 Hopkins 6 Slepy 1.5
    Benson .839 Strome 3.25 JP .925
    Khaira .675 Cags 1.5 Kassian 1.95
    LaLeggia .850

    Klef 4.167 Larsson 4.166
    Sekera 5.5 Benning 2.75
    Nurse 2.5 Mantha .870
    Jones .720

    Talbot 4.166 Broissoit 1.25

    Roster 22
    Cap Hit 73,579,500
    Bonuses 2,685,000
    Cap Space 1,420,500

    JP at least also needs a contract the following year. One forward to find. If bonuses are hit there will be a cap penalty.

    A lot of players are out to make room. Basically 4 forwards over 6M, 3 D over 4M and it’s tight still. Maroon could not be re-signed and replaced with a cheaper player, but at this point any more significant players out will hurt quality likely.

    Chiarelli has to be vary careful, Kassian is a good sign that he seems to get it. Russell is market value and has a significant role love or hate him, that’s what it costs.

    This also shows how critical the farm pipeline is to sustained success and why liquidating too many first and second round picks will return to haunt you in a capped league. The Oilers also have an extra hiccup from picks lost to hire unemployed guys. Anything for the league to keep the Oilers down. Same as it’s always been.

    Go Yamers! Too bad Falmes!

    Edit: You’ll notice Russell is gone for cap space.

    Edit: Sorry it’s 2018-2019. At work. Woodguy’s phone.

  170. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    What did you do to Russell. Also McDavid has another year on his entry level contract

  171. Chachi says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m getting a bit annoyed as well but 1) Caggulia did not have better numbers and 2) Caggulia did not play center.

    Correct, Caggiula did not play centre, but he and Foo are the same age (Caggiula is actually a month younger) so you should look at Caggiula’s last year in college and Foo’s second last year to get a better read on how they compare at the same age. So, in the “same” league (NCAA) at the same age Caggiula scored 26 more points in 3 more games than Foo.

  172. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m getting a bit annoyed as well but 1) Caggulia did not have better numbers and 2) Caggulia did not play center.

    2) Caggiula has played center in college.

    EDIT: Caggiula played center growing up but winger in college.

  173. VOR says:

    Scungilli slushy,

    Did you mean 2018-2019?

  174. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    What did you do to Russell.Also McDavid has another year on his entry level contract

    Sorry it’s 2018-2019, McDavid on the books. I had to trade Russell for a first and two seconds to the Islanders to clear cap 🙂 Could have been Sekera I think his trade clause opens up then. But I prefer him to Russell. They both could go, but then Nurse and Benning have fully arrived and they’ll eat up that cap gain from what I have them at.

  175. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    Scungilli slushy,

    Did you mean 2018-2019?

    Sorry yes

  176. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR:
    Say It Ain’t So,

    “At some point, maybe after a Cup, we’ll get used to the idea that for the first time we have a good hockey club. But something tells me it goes much deeper than that and has its roots in the analytics vs. old boys divide.”

    – This is an interesting question. There was a lot of resistance in the blog to being critical of the OBC. The dream was: “Boys in the Bus are now men, and they are going to lead the Steve Autins back to the glory land”

    – For a long time, it was very much the minority who spoke out about MacT, Lowe, etc

    – It was also blasphemy to suggest that the Steve Austins were part of the problem not the solution

    – Then CmD comes, the Steve Austins don’t light it up in secondary roles (when they weren’t injured), and Chia starts cleaning house

    – Most of the heavy-stat posters in here were also very pro the Steve Austins and the OBC

    – When things changed with Chia, and the team got better, despite the stats people not being to recognize the limitations of their stats on a team vs individual basis, and being so categoric that their analysis was correct, it caused a rift in this community.

    – So when some said they thought it was a good deal for instance to trade Hall for Larsson, the stats side would provide a bunch of compelling reasons for why Hall was a great winger, without an opinion as to whether the team got better (because no such stats exist)

    – So the team got better: some posters be like: “haha, your stats suck”, and the OBC defenders shocked to see the team better, not following the dream. Change is hard for many

    – Anyway that’s the mini version. Me, I enjoy it all: the stats in context, the toughtful posts, and those who have passion, and hate, and tell jokes, or link us to other interesting stuff…

  177. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I have Caggiula at centre because they tried him there and I see them preferring big wingers and the smaller guy in the middle, but he and Khaira could switch as Khaira is a centre in the A. Could be somebody else, the main thing is he has to be low cost.

  178. VOR says:

    Scungilli slushy,

    This is not directed at you, merely a follow along comment. I agree with you that almost certainly one of the 2nd pair D are gone in 2018-2019.

    Given that, does anyone think Scungilli slushy roster above would win a Stanley Cup?

    I am genuinely curious.

    How high can Chiarelli go on McDavid and Draisatl combined before it becomes impossible to structure a roster that has a reasonable chance of winning the Stanley Cup in 2018-2019?

  179. Alpine says:

    Diablo:
    I’m over this Foo kid – kind of a prima donna.

    Caggiula who had way better numbers in college playing center, didn’t arrive with this much drama.

    Let him sign somewhere else.

    Meeting with teams and obliging their invites makes you a prima donna? This is probably the kid’s best opportunity to make it to NHL so he should really be considering his options.

  180. OF17 says:

    Since it’s looking like the bulk of the summer’s work may already be done (key word “may”), I was wondering how we compare so far to Pittsburgh’s changes between Crosby Y2 and Crosby Y3, when they went from a 1st round exit to the SCF. Edmonton in McDavid Y2 bowed out in the second round of course.

    Pittsburgh changes:
    Sykora and Conklin signed as free agents
    Gary Roberts and Georges Laraque acquired for decent picks/prospects

    That’s it. They made some depth moves, got better on the edges of the roster, and let their pieces in place take it. Pretty similar to the Chiarelli strategy.

    Let’s see what Chicago did between Kane/Toews Y2 and Y3, when they went from a 3rd round exit to a Cup.

    Chicago changes:
    Marian Hossa, John Madden, and Tomas Kopecky as free agents
    Sami Pahlsson in trade

    Marian Hossa was a core addition, and his signing alone makes Chicago’s activity categorically different from Pittsburgh’s. I’d also rather have Madden/Kopecky/Pahlsson than Sykora/Roberts/Laraque, but it’s close.

    So we’re left with two models – one of major additions augmenting natural development and one of natural development supported with depth improvements. Both had success, so Chiarelli has precedent to support him either way.

    The problem is that currently, he’s behind pace. The only change has been to swap Eberle for Strome, which while it improves flexibility, is probably a downgrade in on-ice contributions. Chiarelli needs a couple of Sykora/Madden/Kopecky deals to keep up with the pack. Roster spots are getting a little tight already though, so he might only add one D (Kyle Quincey level). Will natural development carry us far enough after that?

  181. Acumen says:

    Brett Connolly wasn’t extended a QO by the Caps, though they are still negotiating a contract.

    I’ve always been a fan and Chiarelli likes him enough to have traded 2 2nds for him once. He’s 25, coming off a 15 goal season, and a RH RW that plays a McLellan style. I really like him as a low key pick up if he makes it to July 1.

  182. Alpine says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – This is an interesting question.There was a lot of resistance in the blog to being critical of the OBC.The dream was: “Boys in the Bus are now men, and they are going to lead the Steve Autins back to the glory land”

    – For a long time, it was very much the minority who spoke out about MacT, Lowe, etc

    – It was also blasphemy to suggest that the Steve Austins were part of the problem not the solution

    – Then CmD comes, the Steve Austins don’t light it up in secondary roles (when they weren’t injured), and Chia starts cleaning house

    – Most of the heavy-stat posters in here were also very pro the Steve Austins and the OBC

    – When things changed with Chia, and the team got better, despite the stats people not being to recognize the limitations of their stats on a team vs individual basis, and being so categoric that their analysis was correct, it caused a rift in this community.

    – So when some said they thought it was a good deal for instance to trade Hall for Larsson, the stats side would provide a bunch of compelling reasons for why Hall was a great winger, without an opinion as to whether the team got better (because no such stats exist)

    – So the team got better: some posters be like: “haha, your stats suck”, and the OBC defenders shocked to see the team better, not following the dream.Change is hard for many

    – Anyway that’s the mini version.Me, I enjoy it all: the stats in context, the toughtful posts, and those who have passion, and hate, and tell jokes, or link us to other interesting stuff…

    The stats guys were by and large not OBC defenders. MacT wore out his welcome with the bad Ference signing, kicking out Dubnyk and Petry. Lowe was criticized heavily for the botched Smyth signing, the seemingly poor Pronger trade, rushing young kids to the NHL. Tambo, you know the story.

    The Steve Austins were defended because they were good players. They weren’t the main part of the problem. The awful management pre-Chia which received very scathing reviews from stats guys around the league, were the problem. They didn’t surround Hall et al with good players. Woodguy and others have repeated that ad nauseum and it’s true.

    The statheads were very critical of the rebuild around the Steve Austins, and knew it was doomed from the start not because of the Austins but because they had no depth. Go read Copper N Blue from 4 years ago. The only people predicting the Oilers to shoot up the standings were MSM types and non-analytical type fans.

  183. Diablo says:

    Side: 2) Caggiula has played center in college.

    EDIT: Caggiula played center growing up but winger in college.

    My bad – I thought he was a centre in college.

    Alpine: Meeting with teams and obliging their invites makes you a prima donna? This is probably the kid’s best opportunity to make it to NHL so he should really be considering his options.

    His agent and the media hype is more likely culprit, you’re right … but they’ve been dragging out their “decision” for months now, so its getting kinda tiresome. The kid’s a 23 year old average-sized winger, who up until last season was not a point-per-game player in college.

    If he wants a guarantee of NHL playing time then its time we move on.

    I’d rather get Pitlick signed instead.

  184. Bank Shot says:

    OF17:

    The problem is that currently, he’s behind pace. The only change has been to swap Eberle for Strome, which while it improves flexibility, is probably a downgrade in on-ice contributions. Chiarelli needs a couple of Sykora/Madden/Kopecky deals to keep up with the pack. Roster spots are getting a little tight already though, so he might not get to. Will natural development carry us far enough?

    I wouldn’t like to count on natural development.

    It would be nice to see a vet center/winger brought in to give some stability.

    A RD as well.

    Both on 1-2 year contracts would be ideal.

    That may mean Chiarelli goes shopping in August/Sept again.

  185. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Alpine,

    – I was referring specifically to the tone in this blog, without being categoric: but nuance is hard to project. And it’s just my take on the ebb and flow. I didn’t mention anyone or anything specific

    – Just my brief history summary, as I see the “conflicts” over the years, with my own biases

    – And I did not say the Steve Austins weren’t good players: can’t have discourse if that was your take-away….

  186. krakman says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Nice narrative I’m sure others will point out all the things you made up about “stat” guys defending Klowe/Mact but the biggest issue with your “analysis” is that the team still sucks when McDavid is not on the ice.

  187. Ducey says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Yakupov not expected to be qualified at the required 2.5 in STL

    Wouldn’t it be something if in a year from now Yakapov was in the KHL and Yakimov was playing for the Oilers.

  188. Side says:

    krakman:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    the biggest issue with your “analysis” is that the team still sucks when McDavid is not on the ice.

    I could be making this up or my memory is bad, but I thought in the last chunk of the season the team was performing well without McDavid on the ice which carried into the playoffs as well.

  189. Factotum says:

    Fantastic news about Clare Drake today. So happy for him.

  190. Acumen says:

    How long until Nail signs with Calgary?

  191. Bank Shot says:

    Acumen:
    How long until Nail signs with Calgary?

    That would be awesome. Like having an inside man to bring the team down from the inside.

  192. jeetz says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!,

    I agree with lots you have to say.

    Im not worried about Nurse and Benning’s next contracts. All that im worried about is the top 4 defencemen total pay. We are aces in that department. If Nurse or Benning push one of our guys out of the top 4 then their contracts becomes an issue. I think we all agree that Russel is the candidate to get pushed out.

    If I am a betting man, Chairelli is banking on 2 year bridge deals for both players (Nurse and Benning). When those are up Russel goes into his tradable year 4 and Sekera will have 1 year left on his deal.

    By that time we will definitely have some younger players pushing their way on the roster too at lower cap hits. I think we are positioned really well on defence player and money wise.at this moment.

    I dont buy into the.’.we are a non playoff team without Mcdavid or talbot’ argument because we have them. They are part of the team. WE do need to get stronger and we have players coming who can get us there.

    I believe Brossoit will be a real strong backup goalie for us this year. probably gets 15-20 games to take the pressure off Talbot. I think he was ready last year but the Oilers ‘hid’ him last year because they didnt want to lose him to Vegas. I believe that to be the real reason they did not play him that much.

    The Kassian signing is a great contract by Chairelli. I think he gets ‘it’. He is a gambler though. He rolled the dice with Larsson, Kassian, Talbot and Maroon and won. Time will tell with Strome and Russell.

    Hopefully we get out of this UFA period with good McDavid and Drai contracts and only UFA signings that help us on the ice and with our cap management.

  193. Jaxon says:

    OF17:
    The problem is that currently, he’s behind pace. The only change has been to swap Eberle for Strome, which while it improves flexibility, is probably a downgrade in on-ice contributions.

    Over the past 3 seasons, Strome and Eberle have scored at the exact same primary points rate at even strength with 1.45 primary points / 60 ES minutes. Of players with 1000 minutes played, that puts them at 73rd and 75th. At $3.5M cheaper, and 3.5 years younger that sounds like pretty good value. 75th is exactly top half of the NHL’s 3rd best players on each team so that works just about right for a top liner.

    https://puckalytics.com/#/skaters?orderby=iprimarypoints60&sortorder=true&season=201417&situation=5v5&TOIMin=1000&Pos=F&dgoals

    To me that doesn’t sound like a major downgrade in on-ice contributions, especially if you count flexibility and the ability to play C. Strome did that with lesser linemates, but I should acknowledge he also did it against lesser competition for the most part.

  194. Gross misconduct says:

    Why are so many oiler fans jealous of Calgary getting Hamonic. Why did Snow want to move him along? Hamonic declared last year his issues blew over and he wanted to stay in N.Y.. last year Hamonic had a 5×5 CF of 44%. 3rd worst of ALL NHL dmen who played a min. 500 minutes. In 2015-16 his 5×5 CF was 77 out of 198 defenders. In 2014-15 with the same criteria Hamonic ranked 93 best out of 204. If you aggregate the 3 seasons together ….among NHL DMEN who played 1500 minutes minimum his 5×5 CF from 2014-17 Hamonic places 122 of 191 dmen. Not exactly Chris pronger numbers.

  195. Gross misconduct says:

    Gross misconduct,

    Source Ari yanover….Flamesnation.

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