PUSH

I mentioned in yesterday morning’s post that Jesse Puljujarvi is 145 days older than Kailer Yamomoto, and that we should consider them as being from the same draft year. As we sit here this morning, drinking coffee and contemplating life, my assumption is that Jesse Puljujarvi  is going to get a clear shot as a top 6F on this hockey club. I will tell you that, in my opinion, he’s going to need a little luck.

Trading Jordan Eberle cleared the decks for someone, but I’m not sure it’s Puljujarvi (although management may see it that way). Kailer Yamamoto is a more substantial offensive talent, pretty sure. Kailer Yamomoto is just 145 days younger and can think the game, skate like the wind and has fantastic skills.

Then there’s Anton Slepyshev. Although he doesn’t have the draft pedigree, Slepyshev did show flashes last season and he owns what is probably the best shot among the young forwards. Drake Caggiula found the range late in the season and played well with 97. Ryan Strome may also find some time on RW and perhaps he finds chem with one of the centers.

I know this blog’s author gets stubborn on things, but this Puljujarvi push seems too early to me. I will tell you the kid Yamomoto’s resume is a better match for 2RW and that’s a fact. Jesse Puljujarvi is going to play this season in the NHL and he’ll enter training camp (imo) as 2RW, but the competition is real and substantial despite inexperience.

I don’t think Todd McLellan will invest Connor McDavid for the Finn. JP was 2.86 5×5/60 scoring with McDavid and had a 53.8 Corsi for 5×5 percentage. Without him the offense went away (0.59 5×5/60 scoring) but the possession (53 percent) remained. A season on  a soft minutes 3line is probably best, with Yamamoto in the WHL and Radim Vrbata signed and sealed for 2017-18.

JESSE PULJUJARVI

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.45 (7th among all forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.66 (one goal in 22 minutes)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 53.2
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: 2.1
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 32.8
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -7.5 (30 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 41 shots/2.4%
  • Boxcars: 28gp, 1-7-8
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

JP had a good possession number but not against elites. I’d guess he’s going to be a good two-way winger. He may end up being a substantial offensive player but I can’t see it from here. Can you?

PROJECTED LINEUP 2017-18

  • This is my list, I do think Strome will play ‘Mirror Man’ with Draisaitl this coming season. When 97-29 are together, Leon taking faceoffs gives the line several advantages (chem, faceoffs) but I expect the club wins Stanley with both men at center.
  • This morning’s item is about JP and the young wingers, but we shouldn’t discount Benoit Pouliot. He should have a far better year.
  • I would love to see Tyler Pitlick signed today. Jordan Oesterle, too.
  • Andrej Sekera’s injury was a real kick in the nuts.

FREE AGENCY 2017

My lists below have taken a major haircut because the dual contracts of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are going to impact July. The McDavid contract sounds like it is farther along but the Draisaitl negotiation (Ryan Rishaug is the best source on this) seems to have some issues. Peter Chiarelli can’t go shopping until that 29 deal is complete. Here are my revised lists.

FORWARDS

  1. R Radim Vrbata FREE AGENT (81gp, 20-35-55). Scorer.
  2. R Drew Stafford FREE AGENT (58gp, 8-13-21). Chiarelli type.
  3. R Jordan Weal FREE AGENT (23gp, 8-4-12). Not a lock for Philly?
  4. R Jarome Iginla FREE AGENT (80gp, 14-13-27). He can still shoot the puck.
  5. R Tyler Pitlick FREE AGENT (31gp, 8-3-11). Finally emerged, could return.
  6. R P-A Parenteau FREE AGENT (67gp, 13-15-28). Can still score.
  7. LC Dominic Moore FREE AGENT (82gp, 11-14-25). PK and FO option.
  8. R Alex Chiasson FREE AGENT (81gp, 12-12-24). Has some value.
  9. LC Mikhail Grigorenko FREE AGENT (75gp, 10-13-23). Good faceoff man.
  10. C-L Brandon Pirri FREE AGENT (60gp, 8-10-18). Low-cost scorer.
  11. R Stepane Da Costa FREE AGENT (24gp, 9-11-20 KHL). Skill forward.

DEFENSE

  1. RD Cody Franson FREE AGENT (68GP, 3-16-19). Out of the blue and into the black.
  2. RD Michael Stone FREE AGENT (64gp, 3-12-15). May be some interest.
  3. LD Yohann Auvitu FREE AGENT (25gp, 2-2-4). He looks like a player.
  4. RD Christian Folin FREE AGENT (51gp, 2-6-8). New free agent arrival.
  5. LD Jordan Oesterle FREE AGENT (2gp, 0-0-0). I like him as a 7D option.
  6. LD Patrick Wiercioch FREE AGENT (57gp, 4-8-12). Spent a year in hell.
  7. RD Dennis Wideman FREE AGENT (57gp, 5-13-18). Going to the end of the line.
  8. RD Adam Clendening FREE AGENT (31gp, 2-9-11). Still hanging around.

Far different list than in previous days but there is value here. I doubt most of these names go in the early days of free agency, so if Peter Chiarelli can get LD signed in the next few days maybe things come together. I like Auvitu as a value defender and several of the forwards.

DAVE SEMENKO

  • Peter Gzowski, The Game of our LivesNumber 27 is Dave Semenko. It is easy to regard Semenko as a goon. He is 6.04, weighs 215 pounds and has fierce, dark eyes and a powerful jaw. He keeps his hair long and at training camp wore a headband that added to his Ukrainian gypsy air. On the ice, he is the team’s enforcer; and there are those who claim he is, or could be, the heavyweight champion of the NHL. Off the ice, though he has a quiet offhand wit that is difficult to capture in print. One morning in training camp, he sat looking out over the ice, talking of what he’d done that summer, which turned out to be nothing (he is married and has a young son) and then he said: “do you know what I used to think about? Making a perfect pass. I’d think about coming out from our end, and just as I came out, sending it right across to the other side, and hitting my other winger in full stride just as he hit the other line. I’d dream about that play.”

I remember watching Semenko jump over the boards after a whistle when the game had reached a dangerous area. Opponent running around, Oilers engaging, blood in the water. Semenko would calm the waters between faceoffs, stretch a little, and the game would resume with order established and roles understood. I’ve never seen that before or since. RIP Dave Semenko.

 

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A sad busy day on the show, I’m always glad to have Bruce McCurdy along for mornings like this one. We’ll talk Clare Drake, Dave Semenko and some Oilers, too. I’ll be joined by Jared Book of Bluebird Banter and Habs Eyes on the Prize at 10:40, then Don Landry of CFL.ca at 11:05. New commish! Week Two. At 11:25, Frank Seravalli will discuss the Leon Draisaitl situation and free agency. All gets rolling at 10, TSN1260. Best way to reach me is 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

 

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189 Responses to "PUSH"

  1. LoDog says:

    I would be all over Weal if the Oilers could swing that, Stone might work on the 3rd pair if he comes cheap.

    Big Semenko fan, met him a couple of times when I was a kid, was such a great guy. Condolences to his family.

  2. Confused says:

    Dave everyone is thinking of you. Rest easy.

  3. TO10801 says:

    RIP Dave Semenko.

    Its nice the oilers will have to focus on the value free agents this year instead of the big fish. Lucic and Sekera are going to be tricky at the end of their respective deals. Very little can go wrong signing Da Costa and Folin to one year deals. If they don’t turn out they don’t play and then they are gone next year.

  4. Atc-Nate says:

    Didn’t I read that the Oil are moving on from Pitlick??

  5. Ducey says:

    LoDog:
    I would be all over Weal if the Oilers could swing that,

    Excuse my ignorance, but why?

    From what I can see, he is small, 25, and has only played 37 games in the NHL. He has put up a point a game in the AHL recently, but so has Lander (and a bunch of other AHL vets).

    It sounds like he is pushing for a place where he can play NHL minutes rather than AHL.

    I think I’d rather have Grigorenko as the 13th forward. He is only 23 and might respond with a fresh start.

  6. russ99 says:

    Ducey: Excuse my ignorance, but why?

    From what I can see, he is small, 25, andhas only played 37 games in the NHL. He has put up a point a game in the AHL recently, but so has Lander (and a bunch of other AHL vets).

    It sounds like he is pushing for a place where he can play NHL minutes rather than AHL.

    I think I’d rather have Grigorenko as the 13th forward. He is only 23 and might respond with a fresh start.

    I’d rather sign a few centers to cheap 2-way contracts for the AHL with enough game where they can jump to the NHL level for a time in case of injury.

    I’m with LT, if Puljujarvi earns a spot this fall, good on him, but it’s not the end of the world if he needs a little more AHL time.

  7. TO10801 says:

    russ99: I’d rather sign a few centers to cheap 2-way contracts for the AHL with enough game where they can jump to the NHL level for a time in case of injury.

    I’m with LT, if Puljujarvi earns a spot this fall, good on him, but it’s not the end of the world if he needs a little more AHL time.

    I think the RW battle will be between JP and Yamamoto. I don’t think its wise to rush Yamamoto, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get a couple games at the start of the year. It will be really tempting to have a RW sniper on 97’s wing.

  8. Lewis Grant says:

    LC Dominic Moore FREE AGENT (82gp, 11-14-25). PK and FO option.

    I don’t understand why we didn’t sign this guy about 8 years ago, back when we were looking for our next Marty Reasoner.

    Instead, we had to go out and sign Eric Belanger.

  9. LoDog says:

    Ducey,

    RHC for cheap. Ya hes small but as long as he can skate I think he would be a good pick up. Skating is what usually stops a player who can put up numbers in the AHL from having success in the NHL. Lander being no exception.

  10. Lewis Grant says:

    LD Jordan Oesterle FREE AGENT (2gp, 0-0-0). I like him as a 7D option.

    Why haven’t we shown this guy any interest? The left side is much weakened with Davidson and Reinhart gone, Sekera injured, Simpson and Betker unpromising, and Jones not yet ready, Oesterle put up 0.75 PPG in the AHL. That is a high number for a D-man (maybe someone can fill us in on the NHLE). And he can skate. Why not sign him for a year or two?

    With Sekera injured, our 6D is currently Gryba. Do we really have a better option for 7D (or 6D to push Gryba to 7D)? (Vegas probably has a better option for our 6D, but we don’t seem eager to trade with them.)

  11. Ducey says:

    russ99: I’d rather sign a few centers to cheap 2-way contracts for the AHL with enough game where they can jump to the NHL level for a time in case of injury.

    I think I would sign a few to one way contracts up to $1.025 M . The guys will be more likely to sign and less likely to be picked off on waivers. When they are in the AHL they will not count towards the cap.

    Its only uncle Darryl’s money. He can afford it.

  12. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Longtime absent from here – sometimes the tone gets a bit much… Anyway – is Postma no longer available? If he is, what about Postman, Pitlick and Bonino or Gagner as additions?

    Thoughts? Happy to have seen a real step forward for the Oilers this past year. Hope to see them challenge again. Excited for “The Extension”, but a wee bit concerned about the implications for Draisaitl going forward.

    Happy summer everyone! And condolences to the Semenko family – great character guy.

  13. hunter1909 says:

    I’m really sad hearing this.

    Dave Semenko was cool personified.

    RIP

  14. Gret99zky says:

    Why on Earth would sources allow Ryan Rishaug to leak McDavid’s contract numbers before Leon’s is signed?

    Unless Chia has both signature’s on paper already and is just waiting for a July 1 reveal, to the delight of Oiler fans across the nation. (as they come in at lower $ than is being reported)

    If the numbers are actually 8 X $12.5M for 97 and 8 X $7.5M for 29 Chia will look like a goddamn folk hero.

    If the numbers being reported are accurate for 97 and Leon is playing hardball because of it, then screw whoever leaked the info to Richaug. Assholes!

  15. Cassandra says:

    Regarding Draisatl, the upper limit of the contract is represented by whatever offer sheet he might sign.

    An offer sheet comes with the additional cost in draft picks to the signing team. So the value of the offer sheet = UFA contract minus the value of two first round draft picks.

    Take Draisatl’s hypothetical UFA contract and subtract whatever you think two first round draft picks are worth. That’s the upper limit of a reasonable Draisatl contract.

    If Draisatl was an UFA what kind of contract would he receive?

  16. TO10801 says:

    Gret99zky:
    Why on Earth would sources allow Ryan Rishaug to leak McDavid’s contract numbers before Leon’s is signed?

    Unless Chia has both signature’s on paper already and is just waiting for a July 1 reveal, to the delight of Oiler fans across the nation.(as they come in at lower $ than is being reported)

    If the numbers are actually 8 X $12.5M for 97 and 8 X $7.5M for 29 Chia will look like a goddamn folk hero.

    If the numbers being reported are accurate for 97 and Leon is playing hardball because of it, then screw whoever leaked the info to Richaug.Assholes!

    This is what I thought as well, but I’m guessing Leon and Connor have talked about what Connor is getting. I don’t think it will change much, but I’m guessing Leon is also looking at someone like Claude Giroux and saying I’m better than him so pay me better than him.

  17. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Gret99zky,

    If CmD’s numbers are below what’s being tossed around, the media will make him out to be the gentlest of all skilled giants and point back to his humbleness and belief in the team for why it happened.

    Personally I think they are blowing smoke at this point and just used Crosby’s numbers to come up with a set of digits that they could tweet about.

    But then again I have a very cynical take on the media so maybe they have the inside scoop.

    What time exactly does free agency get underway? Noon on Saturday?

  18. LoDog says:

    Gret99zky,

    That’s my theory. CM’s cap hit will be 12.25 and everyone will think thats great after hearing the 13.25 number. Probably not but one can hope.

  19. Richard S.S. says:

    A friend I trust said 8 years $72.0 Million Draisaitl’s Camp wants.

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    – Great post LT! I tend to agree with you Say: I think these guys are spit-balling. It’s a reasonable assumption: take the same % of cap that Crosby did in the day…

    – Just get them both signed, for 8 years: just be all-in. That’s what winners do.

    – And of course Drai and McD are talking: it has to make sense for them and the team.

    – Suppose an agent could be leaking stuff: Drai’s to help his cause.

  21. sliderule says:

    I like to try to find statistics when players are having more or less equal competition

    In 2015-16 Yamomoto and Jp played tournament junior and competition in preparation for same
    Yamomoto mostly u18 comp and Jp mostly in U 20 except for short stint at U18.

    JP. 27 19-29-48 pts
    KY 16 14-13 -27 pts

    I don’t see the upgrade in offence that you are looking for from a 146 or 147 lb. forward.KY has to put on 15 lbs of muscle to play effectively in NHL.

  22. stush18 says:

    Here’s my thoughts on the mcdavid leak.

    Chiarelli leaked it, to put media pressure on Leon.

    “Listen Leon, I would LOVE to pay you 8.5, but Connors deal is taking up a lot of the cap hit. We got to keep you two to around 25% of the cap hit if we want to win. ”

    Mcdavids agent declined to comment, saying they were still working.

  23. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lewis Grant: LD Jordan Oesterle FREE AGENT (2gp, 0-0-0). I like him as a 7D option.

    Why haven’t we shown this guy any interest?

    LT has shown interest because of his skill set. I think he is a tweener. A great skater, but he is light, isn’t a great offensive player at the NHL and doesn’t have a lot of jam in his game. If he had big offense I could see it or was a real game rooster.

  24. N64 says:

    Gret99zky: Why on Earth would sources allow Ryan Rishaug to leak McDavid’s contract numbers before Leon’s is signed?

    Every one has a theory. Chia is airtight whereas the old boys used leaks to pressure players. I vote agents are the source.

    The dynamic could be that every extra dollar for Leon is coming off of CMD’s 13.25 and a strong signal to Leon that it’s time to close. Would not be surprised if they get announced together with Connor at 12.75 or 13.00.

  25. stush18 says:

    sliderule:
    I like to try to find statistics when players are having more or less equal competition

    In 2015-16 Yamomoto and Jp played tournament junior and competition in preparation for same
    Yamomoto mostly u18 comp and Jp mostly in U 20 except for short stint at U18.

    JP.27 19-29-48 pts
    KY16 14-13 -27 pts

    I don’t see the upgrade in offence that you are looking for froma 146 or 147 lb. forward.KY has to put on 15 lbs of muscle to playeffectively in NHL.

    This is LTs wet dream. Small skilled guy crushing the math gets drafted by the oilers. He’s over the moon, but there’s no way in heck Yamamoto makes the team.

    Also, do we have a nickname for him?

    In hockey circles I guarantee his names “Yammer”. We going that simple?

  26. Cassandra says:

    Before signing his big contract Giroux had been over a pt/game in three straight seasons.

    It also bought only one RFA season (I believe) whereas Draisatl has five RFA seasons (I believe)

    In terms of cap hit % the equivalent contract number would be 9.6 M.

    Considering the difference in performance and number of RFA years, the reported demand of between 9 and 10 seems without precedent.

  27. stush18 says:

    Also LT, I don’t know if you saw yesterday or not, but capfriendly released the overages due to rookie bonuses from last year.

    Oilers have a 860,000 cap penalty this year due to bonuses from last year.

    Leafs are over 5 mill in cap penalties from all their rookies. Ouch.

  28. Rube Foster says:

    Dave Semenko.

    Those images of Semenko sitting beside Gretzky at Rogers Place during the playoff run are even more poignant now. It’s hard to explain just how important a player he was for the Boys on The Bus Dynasty.

    He was so much more than an enforcer. Gone too soon and a devasting loss for Oilers Family.

  29. Lawgirl says:

    Pouliot is on waivers for a buyout. Colour me surprised.

  30. russ99 says:

    FriedgeHNIC’s avatar
    Elliotte Friedman
    @FriedgeHNIC
    Pouliot (EDM) on waivers today for a buyout

    Didn’t want it to come to this, but nobody wanted to trade for him, and now we have more cap for Leon and acquistions.

  31. stush18 says:

    Cassandra:
    Before signing his big contract Giroux had been over a pt/game in three straight seasons.

    It also bought only one RFA season (I believe) whereas Draisatl has five RFA seasons (I believe)

    In terms of cap hit % the equivalent contract number would be 9.6 M.

    Considering the difference in performance and number of RFA years, the reported demand of between 9 and 10 seems without precedent.

    I think what’s happening is everyone is drawing similarities between the oilers and penguins, mcdavid/Crosby and draisaitl/malkin.

    Mcdavid is supposedly getting the same percentage of cap as Crosby, so naturally Leon should get what malkin got.

    That’s the idea being pushed, anyways. I don’t think it’s accurate in the slightest.

  32. npanciroli says:

    Oh no. Pouliot buyout scares me.

    Assuming it’s for Draisaitl 9+, hoping it’s for FA acquisitions.

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouliot has been put on waivers for the purpose of a buyout.

    1) I don’t like it – A dead cap hit of just over $1M for 4 years (plus the cost of the replacement player)

    2) I’m surprised they couldn’t retain $1M cap hit and trade the guy at a cap hit of $3M for two years.

    The buyout now makes me think that PC might be looking to grab a UFA for a short term with significant cap hit.

    If not, I don’t see the point in buying out Poo this year, might as well wait until next year and shorten the dead cap period.

    We don’t need the cap space this year. As of now, we have lots of room for this season, even with Drai’s new contract and without even using LTIR relief for Sekera.

    This might signal PC has something else planned.

  34. stush18 says:

    russ99:
    FriedgeHNIC’s avatar
    Elliotte Friedman
    @FriedgeHNIC
    Pouliot (EDM) on waivers today for a buyout

    Didn’t want it to come to this, but nobody wanted to trade for him, and now we have more cap for Leon and acquistions.

    Wow. I thought for sure they would wait till next year. Cuts the duration in half.

  35. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Without a shadow of a doubt, the oilers are a notably worse team than they were 2 weeks ago. All moves made in June are losses in my mind. Where is the gord damn smart move coming from Chia

  36. franksterra says:

    Cassandra,

    yes if these numbers are credible (see Richard SS above as well) then we need plans B through D in short order

    but there has yet to be anything remotely definitive as far as info.

  37. Gret99zky says:

    stush18:

    Also, do we have a nickname for him?

    Jelly

  38. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Rest in peace Dave. Childhood friends used to shoot pool with him at the Strath. I was too busy in uni sadly. They loved him, great guy.

  39. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Pouliot has been put on waivers for the purpose of a buyout.

    1) I don’t like it – A dead cap hit of just over $1M for 4 years (plus the cost of the replacement player)

    2) I’m surprised they couldn’t retain $1M cap hit and trade the guy at a cap hit of $3M for two years.

    The buyout now makes me think that PC might be looking to grab a UFA for a short term with significant cap hit.

    If not, I don’t see the point in buying out Poo this year, might as well wait until next year and shorten the dead cap period.

    We don’t need the cap space this year. As of now, we have lots of room for this season, even with Drai’s new contract and without even using LTIR relief for Sekera.

    This might signal PC has something else planned.

    This was a alluded during the season from some MSM sources in the know that Pouliot and the coaching staff were at odds, and the Oilers tried to trade him all year with no takers.

    At his contract, he was at negative value, and if the whispers about coaching conflicts are true, nobody was beating a path to our door to take potentially a problem player and his decent size contract.

  40. Scungilli Slushy says:

    stush18: Wow. I thought for sure they would wait till next year. Cuts the duration in half.

    It’s become pretty clear that players either get with the program or they’ll move on quickly. We also don’t have any backstory I think it’s good to remember. I’m not sure it makes cap sense, but his sideburns are prodigious, rivaled only by Fayne’s 70’s masterpieces.

  41. stush18 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: It’s become pretty clear that players either get with the program or they’ll move on quickly. We also don’t have any backstory I think it’s good to remember. I’m not sure it makes cap sense, but his sideburns are prodigious, rivaled only by Fayne’s 70’s masterpieces.

    Do you know how many more years cagguila has on his contract? One? Or two?

    Because he is essentially pouliots replacement imo.

  42. russ99 says:

    stush18: Do you know how many more years cagguila has on his contract? One? Or two?

    Because he is essentially pouliots replacement imo.

    RFA next year. And yes, he’s the obvious replacement.

    Next year’s RFAs are going to be trouble: Strome, Caggiula, Slepyshev, Benning, Nurse.

    It would behoove Chia to lock some up now, once Leon’s number is set.

    Though I can see the benefit of some competing against each other to stay.

  43. TO10801 says:

    FIne with the Pouliot buyout if it means we are in on Marleau. Not fine if it is for money for a guy like Dwight King.

  44. Ribs says:

    Sad to hear about Semenko. He was up in GP a few weeks ago with Matt Benning (brownie points for you, Matt) for an Oilers Hockey School thing and I would have went to see him if it were not for work *shakes fist*.

    I would have brought my minor hockey stick along with me that he had signed at a tournament many years ago now. I remember being a little spooked by his grey eyes and being amazed by his giant mitts that engulfed the sharpie as he signed my stick for me. It only took a smile from him to ease any worries I may have had about him that day. He was one of those guys that are just natural with kids. He was truly happy to be there. I ended up scoring a hat trick (which was not an everyday thing for me) with that stick in the game we played after it was signed by him. One of my favourite Oilers memories.

  45. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    stush18,

    One year left I believe, he got the standard ELC for an undrafted college signing which is one less than for a drafted prospect.

    stush18,

    Holy crap is that a giant overage!

    Cassandra,

    I agree with you 100% here and this is why I am on board with LT’s radical take of yesterday’s morning thread if Leon refuses to budge.

  46. npanciroli says:

    Hoping it is Marleau.

    Worried it is Draisaitl 9 x 8.

  47. npanciroli says:

    Cassandra,

    Agree with this.

    I can see 8×8 since it’s similar to Tarasenko and cap has increased. I still think with Tarasenko’s goal scoring and with him leading his team in pts you should be able to get it to low 7’s.

    This contract worries me much more than McDavid at 14 x 8.

  48. Ducey says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Pouliot has been put on waivers for the purpose of a buyout.

    1) I don’t like it – A dead cap hit of just over $1M for 4 years (plus the cost of the replacement player)

    2) I’m surprised they couldn’t retain $1M cap hit and trade the guy at a cap hit of $3M for two years.

    The buyout now makes me think that PC might be looking to grab a UFA for a short term with significant cap hit.

    If not, I don’t see the point in buying out Poo this year, might as well wait until next year and shorten the dead cap period.

    We don’t need the cap space this year. As of now, we have lots of room for this season, even with Drai’s new contract and without even using LTIR relief for Sekera.

    This might signal PC has something else planned.

    Yeah, they would have been talking to UFA’s so the timing is likely a tell.

    And they have a hole in LW now and about $10 million.

    I would have thought Pou’s buyout would be more than $1.3 x 4.

    I see his buyout is 3rd on the Capfriendly list in terms of popularity.

    #2 is Shea Weber. Those Habs fans are a fickle bunch.

  49. npanciroli says:

    Not a big Bonino fan especially with the possible term. Hanzal I like a bit more.

    rather go for Marleau or Thornton or both somehow.

  50. jtblack says:

    RIP Dave Semenko. One of the boys on the bus. Seems a lot of “Enforcers” have a soft side off the ice; either way, seems Semenko was clearly one of the good guys.

    Now to the team. “He may end up being a substantial offensive player but I can’t see it from here. Can you?” – Yes LT. I can. Matter of opinion of course, but I see JP in the Leon mold. You have to give these kids a chance. He just turned 19 last month. He is a baby. I think he makes the team out of camp and given that his centers all year will be McDavid, Draisatl, RNH or Strome; I think JP is a lock for a 20 – 20 season. If he hits 20-20 as a 19 yr old, I believe the outlook will change.

    Whether Yamamoto becomes a better scorer or not, the hope is that JP and KY are the 1 – 2 RW punch that helps lead us to the Cup …

    Pouliot bought out. You mention a few reasons why ..could one be that we have a chance at signing Marleau (LW)? …

    Great stuff as always ….

  51. frjohnk says:

    Buyout Pouliot.

    Sign Hanzel ( with a NMC of course)

    Trade Nuge for prospect/picks.

    Probably save about 4M that way.

  52. hags9k says:

    Cassandra,

    I’m pretty sure the nickname should be “Killer” Yamamoto.

    With all due respect to Gilmour…

  53. jtblack says:

    Ducey,

    “I would have thought Pou’s buyout would be more than $1.3 x 4.” — It is that much

  54. N64 says:

    Ducey: Yeah, they would have been talking to UFA’s so the timing is likely a tell

    Retaining 1/3 of Pou’s salary would cost the same and would be done sooner.

    So yeah this does look like a move for max flexibility right now. Hey Connor. How about a little more off for this guy on your wing. Hey Drai. Climb on board the Cup train.

  55. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Well, if Leon gets too much money I’ll be on his ass all year. If you want to get paid that much that young which unusual for anybody but Crosby or Connor, you better cover that bet. 100% every shift and at least 1 PPG no matter who you play with or against, because that’s what that kind of money means.

    Same for Connor. The highest paid player in the league gets shut down by no one. Steep learning curve, of course I’m confident Connor can do that.

  56. Jethro Tull says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Well, if Leon gets too much money I’ll be on his ass all year.

    Are we still doing phrasing?

  57. N64 says:

    frjohnk: Trade Nuge for prospect/picks

    Nuge is too useful not to get a critical piece back. Scratch tickets? Got those T shirts.

  58. jtblack says:

    The reasons to rail against PC (valid Opinions) and reasons to like some of his moves (opinion); but it should be noted he took over the biggest disaster the hockey world had seen, a record 10 years missing the playoffs! And the lineup he inherited proved just that. Bad players. Bad Contracts that he is still unwinding …

    Look at this beauty that is still affecting the Oilers today.
    “Edmonton Oilers general manager Craig MacTavish was active early on Day 1 of the free-agent season Tuesday, signing left-winger Benoit Pouliot and defenceman Mark Fayne.
    Pouliot, who signed off on a five-year contract worth a reported $20 million US, is fresh off a career-high 36-point season” – CBC

    PC was also gifted the chosen one and some great prospects, but that shouldn’t be confused with a clean slate … He has been trying to assemble an NHL defense, clean up the old, overpaid contracts and juggle what he is faced with today; signing two stars in a crazy cap world era …

  59. geowal says:

    Never really saw Semenko as someone who just remembers the 90s cup, but the legend loomed large in discussion with the older set. RIP.

  60. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: Are we still doing phrasing?

    Heh.

  61. npanciroli says:

    jtblack,

    And restock our minor system too. Not easy to do all of it at once.

  62. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    “If you want to get paid that much that young” – Would you try and get paid as much as possible or would you settle for less? At your current work are you working for less than your peers? It’s not Leon’s fault, or Connor’s or Oscar’s that they get the contracts they get .. that is the industry, agents, etc … I am sure Leon would play hockey for $1 Million per year, but he doesn’t have to, hence pushing for the high end of what his agents peers have been able to negotiate …

  63. godot10 says:

    russ99: This was a alluded during the season from some MSM sources in the know that Pouliot and the coaching staff were at odds, and the Oilers tried to trade him all year with no takers.

    At his contract, he was at negative value, and if the whispers about coaching conflicts are true, nobody was beating a path to our door to take potentially a problem player and his decent size contract.

    Very little flexibility with this coaching staff. The pegs have to not only be round, but perfectly polished or they can’t use ’em.

  64. TO10801 says:

    jtblack:
    The reasons to rail against PC (valid Opinions) and reasons to like some of his moves (opinion); but it should be noted he took over the biggest disaster the hockey world had seen, a record 10 years missing the playoffs!And the lineup he inherited proved just that. Bad players. Bad Contracts that he is still unwinding …

    Look at this beauty that is still affecting the Oilers today.
    “Edmonton Oilers general manager Craig MacTavish was active early on Day 1 of the free-agent season Tuesday, signing left-winger Benoit Pouliot and defenceman Mark Fayne.
    Pouliot, who signed off on a five-year contract worth a reported $20 million US, is fresh off a career-high 36-point season” – CBC

    PC was also gifted the chosen one and some great prospects, but that shouldn’t be confused with a clean slate … He has been trying to assemble an NHL defense, clean up the old, overpaid contracts and juggle what he is faced with today; signing two stars in a crazy cap world era …

    Obviously its not possible, but I would love to know what MacT would have done the last couple seasons as a comparison to what Chia has done.

  65. Chachi says:

    godot10: Very little flexibility with this coaching staff.The pegs have to not only be round, but perfectly polished or they can’t use ’em.

    They are just the worst, aren’t they?

  66. Thorin says:

    Clearly, Kailer Yamamoto’s nickname should be Kentucky, on account of his initials.

  67. Chachi says:

    TO10801: Obviously its not possible, but I would love to know what MacT would have done the last couple seasons as a comparison to what Chia has done.

    If you have to ask the question…

  68. misfit says:

    Letestu-Kassian is likely our top PK unit this year.
    Nuge-??? will be our 2nd
    McDavid-??? the 3rd

    With the loss of Hendricks, Lander, and now Pouliot, we don’t have a lot of penalty killers on the team. At least not guys who’ve done a lot of it in the past. Pakarinen did PK some 2 years ago, but very little of it this past season. Khaira has averaged 1 second this year, and absolutely zero last year.

  69. jtblack says:

    We all know how free agency usually works out … When MacT pulled the trigger on Pouliot there were 2 red flags.

    1) Pouliot just had a career high year
    2) Pouliot was on his 6th team in 6 years …

    “Pouliot, who signed off on a five-year contract worth a reported $20 million US, is fresh off a career-high 36-point season, helping the New York Rangers reach the Stanley Cup final. He added five goals and 10 points in 25 playoff games. The 27-year-old joins his sixth team in as many seasons.” – CBC

    Now in hindsight we shouldn’t be surprised that Pouliot never surpassed 36 points, frustrated his coaches and is now being waived. He did do OK for sure, but did not live up to his expected performance level. Wish you well BP!

  70. hodgkins says:

    Count me in as someone who is not going to get upset over rumors from contract negotiations. I would guess that things are intentionally being leaked to cause some sort of reaction/pressure…

    Also, if I was Drai’s agent, I’d be asking for the moon as well. That’d be my job. Doesn’t mean things will end there.

    Let’s just see where things shake out.

  71. adamjames says:

    Chachi: They are just the worst, aren’t they?

    Wait the worst? I thought they were just #ThoroughlyMediocre

  72. hags9k says:

    N64: Nuge is too useful not to get a critical piece back. Scratch tickets? Got those T shirts.

    In my eyes, Nuge isn’t just a useful piece, he is an extremely valuable member of the team’s core. If these two contracts result in him having to go for cap room, that’s a huge loss.

    We need 97 and 29 to take a little less than what is being reported. Do they have every right to demand those numbers? Yes. Will the Oilers be perennial contenders with them at say 13.25 and 9.0 cap hits? I doubt it.

    What do we do when Talbot comes up? How do we aquire a #1D or pay Nurse ir Klef if they become one? What happens when JP shows up LT and starts posting crooked numbers?

    I love both players, but these contract rumours are just a little too pricey.

  73. stush18 says:

    misfit:
    Letestu-Kassian is likely our top PK unit this year.
    Nuge-??? will be our 2nd
    McDavid-??? the 3rd

    With the loss of Hendricks, Lander, and now Pouliot, we don’t have a lot of penalty killers on the team.At least not guys who’ve done a lot of it in the past.Pakarinen did PK some 2 years ago, but very little of it this past season.Khaira has averaged 1 second this year, and absolutely zero last year.

    Caguilla did pretty good on the PK last year. Khaira will prolly get a look. Draisaitl on the ends of the PKs. I think we should be fine.

    Honest if it wasn’t for letestus face off ability, I wouldn’t have him on the PK. He’s too slow, and has a terrible time reading the play

  74. texmex says:

    Bob Stauffer‏Verified account
    @Bob_Stauffer
    Following
    More
    Benoit Pouliot buy-out creates more cap flexibility for Peter Chiarelli.
    Cap space might be deployed during season rather than off-season

    I suggest we Oiler fans enjoy Canada Day rather than checking twitter. Doesn’t look like the Oil we be doing much of anything on free agency.

  75. Cassandra says:

    jtblack:
    The reasons to rail against PC (valid Opinions) and reasons to like some of his moves (opinion); but it should be noted he took over the biggest disaster the hockey world had seen, a record 10 years missing the playoffs!And the lineup he inherited proved just that. Bad players. Bad Contracts that he is still unwinding …

    Look at this beauty that is still affecting the Oilers today.
    “Edmonton Oilers general manager Craig MacTavish was active early on Day 1 of the free-agent season Tuesday, signing left-winger Benoit Pouliot and defenceman Mark Fayne.
    Pouliot, who signed off on a five-year contract worth a reported $20 million US, is fresh off a career-high 36-point season” – CBC

    PC was also gifted the chosen one and some great prospects, but that shouldn’t be confused with a clean slate … He has been trying to assemble an NHL defense, clean up the old, overpaid contracts and juggle what he is faced with today; signing two stars in a crazy cap world era …

    But what has happened with Pouliot and Fayne is self-inflicted.

    If Pouliiot can still play (I suspect we will have a chance to find out), and if Fayne can still play (I suspect we will not find out) then the cost of burying them in the minors or buying them out falls on Chiarelli.

    [Edit] That Fayne math made no sense. Still, if could play in the NHL still I don’t see the point of having him in the minors.

  76. godot10 says:

    jtblack:
    We all know how free agency usually works out … When MacT pulled the trigger on Pouliot there were 2 red flags.

    1) Pouliot just had a career high year
    2) Pouliot was on his 6th team in 6 years …

    “Pouliot, who signed off on a five-year contract worth a reported $20 million US, is fresh off a career-high 36-point season, helping the New York Rangers reach the Stanley Cup final. He added five goals and 10 points in 25 playoff games. The 27-year-old joins his sixth team in as many seasons.” – CBC

    Now in hindsight we shouldn’t be surprised that Pouliot never surpassed 36 points, frustrated his coaches and is now being waived.He did do OK for sure, but did not live up to his expected performance level.Wish you well BP!

    Pouliot’s first two seasons in Edmonton were perfectly fine. He is a perfectly serviceable player for an open-minded coach. He has his flaws (offensive zone penalties), but most players have flaws. McLellan couldn’t accept Pouliot’s flaws, hence the rupture in the relationship.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvvx-0G7XHc

  77. vinotintazo says:

    Cassandra,

    hi

  78. TO10801 says:

    texmex:
    Bob Stauffer‏Verified account
    @Bob_Stauffer
    Following
    More
    Benoit Pouliot buy-out creates more cap flexibility for Peter Chiarelli.
    Cap space might be deployed during season rather than off-season

    I suggest we Oiler fans enjoy Canada Day rather than checking twitter. Doesn’t look like the Oil we be doing much of anything on free agency.

    I don’t really get this. Why buyout pouliot now if your not using the cap space now. Maybe Chia is planning to go out and get Mike Green and James Neal at the deadline I guess.

  79. Ducey says:

    godot10: Pouliot’s first two seasons in Edmonton were perfectly fine.He is a perfectly serviceable player for an open-minded coach.He has his flaws (offensive zone penalties), but most players have flaws. McLellan couldn’t accept Pouliot’s flaws, hence the rupture in the relationship.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvvx-0G7XHc

    Always the coach, always the coach, always the coach.
    -Godot10

    There, I saved you the need to make any other comments today.

  80. Professor Q says:

    Gret99zky:
    Why on Earth would sources allow Ryan Rishaug to leak McDavid’s contract numbers before Leon’s is signed?

    Unless Chia has both signature’s on paper already and is just waiting for a July 1 reveal, to the delight of Oiler fans across the nation.(as they come in at lower $ than is being reported)

    If the numbers are actually 8 X $12.5M for 97 and 8 X $7.5M for 29 Chia will look like a goddamn folk hero.

    If the numbers being reported are accurate for 97 and Leon is playing hardball because of it, then screw whoever leaked the info to Richaug.Assholes!

    I’m fairly certain that Dreger and Rishaug stated that they believe McDavid’s contract will be far below that number, and that it was only “whispers” etc. after they reported it. Yet people took it as word and ran with it and you have 1000 articles about it now and everyone’s talking about it…say, talk about that Frenzy, eh?

    I personally believe they’re either just doing it for the attention or maybe trying to screw with Edmonton and make last-minute negotiations even worse. Like the MSM usually tries to do with Edmonton.

  81. godot10 says:

    hags9k: In my eyes, Nuge isn’t just a useful piece, he is an extremely valuable member of the team’s core.If these two contracts result in him having to go for cap room, that’s a huge loss.

    We need 97 and 29 to take a little less than what is being reported.Do they have every right to demand those numbers? Yes.Will the Oilers be perennial contenders with them at say 13.25 and 9.0 cap hits?I doubt it.

    What do we do when Talbot comes up?How do we aquire a #1D or pay Nurse ir Klef if they become one?What happens when JP shows up LT and starts posting crooked numbers?

    I love both players, but these contract rumours are just a little too pricey.

    McDavid and Draisaitl will not be where the cap space is wasted. Lucic and Russell…now there is a waste of cap space. There is perhaps still some hope Lucic will rebound. But that other contract….

  82. shawnmullin says:

    Puljujarvi had 17 points in 7 World Junior games. As a professional rookie he had 28 points in 39 games in an AHL where scoring rates were incredibly low, For context if you took his point total and averaged it to a 76 game season he would have just been outside the top 20 scorers… and most of those guys have several years of experience on him. He put up 37 points in 60 combined regular season/playoff games in a high end league against men as an underage player the year before. At the same age as Puljujarvi a player like Aleksander Barkov had 16 points in 32 Liiga games.

    Leon Draisaitl had 9 points in 37 games as an NHL rookie. Tyler Seguin had 22 points in 74 games as an NHL rookie. Puljujarvi had 8 in 28 games.

    Now I could just as easily go and find guys whose careers didn’t pan out and compare his numbers to those guys. My point isn’t that Puljujarvi absolutely will develop into a 30 goal/60 point NHL player. I’m just saying there are plenty of comps to suggest he could very easily be on that road too.

    As for Pouliot… that’s a shame. Hate to carry any cap hit beyond next season. Probably necessary if he’s not in their plans in order to open up some room to help take advantage of this season before the McDavid extension hits next summer.

  83. Professor Q says:

    godot10: McDavid and Draisaitl will not be where the cap space is wasted.Lucic and Russell…now there is a waste of cap space.There is perhaps still some hope Lucic will rebound.But that other contract….

    Russell is not even close to watsed cap space. People are overblowing that to epic proportions.

    As for Lucic, he would have gotten that elsewhere, if not more. And he’s still effective. Probably was much more effective than McDavid in the playoffs, too.

  84. russ99 says:

    godot10: Pouliot’s first two seasons in Edmonton were perfectly fine.He is a perfectly serviceable player for an open-minded coach.He has his flaws (offensive zone penalties), but most players have flaws. McLellan couldn’t accept Pouliot’s flaws, hence the rupture in the relationship.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvvx-0G7XHc

    This to me is the crux of the Chiarelli era:

    If you can’t change your game to play the systems we know wins playoff series and titles, see ya later.

    Gotta disagree with you, all coaches have to bend and adapt to get the most of their players, and IMO McLellan isn’t the best at this, but he’s done OK. But bending of the core principles won’t be tolerated.

  85. Durag says:

    texmex:
    I suggest we Oiler fans enjoy Canada Day rather than checking twitter. Doesn’t look like the Oil we be doing much of anything on free agency.

    I’m going to be out at the lake, and if I feel a sudden gust of warm wind I’m going to assume it’s twitter rage.

  86. Primetime says:

    misfit:
    Letestu-Kassian is likely our top PK unit this year.
    Nuge-??? will be our 2nd
    McDavid-??? the 3rd

    Latest-Kassian
    Nuge-MARLEAU!!!!
    McDavid-Caggiula

  87. Ducey says:

    TO10801: I don’t really get this. Why buyout pouliot now if your not using the cap space now. Maybe Chia is planning to go out and get Mike Green and James Neal at the deadline I guess.

    Not sure its a bad plan.

    A good chunk of UFA contracts in early July seem to backfire on teams

    EDM has grabbed Sekera (good), Lucic (ok now, likely painful later), Letestu (good), Gryba (sort of a UFA), Fayne, Pouliot. They dodged a big bullet on Clarkson.

    I would think on average, teams are generally unhappy with about 1/2 their July 1 deals within a few years. With the cap, they can be a big problem.

  88. godot10 says:

    russ99: This to me is the crux of the Chiarelli era:

    If you can’t change your game to play the systems we know wins playoff series and titles, see ya later.

    Titles? #ZeroCupsCoachesClub

  89. Chachi says:

    adamjames: Wait the worst? I thought they were just #ThoroughlyMediocre

    No, Godot is just being nice. They are the worst. The Oilers got to within a Ryan Kesler crotch pull of getting to the 3rd round of the Stanley Cup playoffs based on luck alone. Todd McLellan is never going to coach a team to a Stanley Cup. His ring as an assistant with Detroit doesn’t count. He might as well put on his track suit and hang out in the incompetence lounge with Peter Chiarelli for the rest of his career.

  90. TO10801 says:

    Ducey: Not sure its a bad plan.

    A good chunk of UFA contracts in early July seem to backfire on teams

    EDM has grabbed Sekera (good), Lucic (ok now, likely painful later), Letestu (good), Gryba (sort of a UFA), Fayne, Pouliot. They dodged a big bullet on Clarkson.

    I would think on average, teams are generally unhappy with about 1/2 their July 1 deals within a few years. With the cap, they can be a big problem.

    Yup agree on the long-term deals. Would still like to see a 1 or 2 year deal for a vet winger or two, but its hard to be upset about those based on the fact they are gone at the end of the year.

  91. dustrock says:

    Jackets buy out Hartnell

  92. dustrock says:

    Motor for Yamamoto

  93. blainer says:

    Pou came to camp out of shape IMO. He never regained his conditioning throughout the season and I really believe they are not willing to take that risk on him again this year. I know I wouldn’t.

    Don’t believe for a min that they are not clearing money to go get a faceoff guy. It may not happen on the 1st but it will happen probably around the same time they get 5/6 D.

    My guess is Boyle.

  94. Ribs says:

    Does Yamamoto really need a nickname? YamamotoYamamotoYamamotooooooo….. It’s just fun to say on it’s own!

  95. frjohnk says:

    blainer: Don’t believe for a min that they are not clearing money to go get a faceoff guy.

    They didn’t have to buyout Pouliot unless another shoe is to drop.

    Totally agree with you. I think if its Hanzel, Nuge is gone within a year. Boyle, maybe Nuge stays.

  96. Woogie63 says:

    With Poo going,

    Sign Pitlick and slide Slepyshev to the left side if you need to.

  97. Professor Q says:

    Ribs:
    Does Yamamoto really need a nickname? YamamotoYamamotoYamamotooooooo….. It’s just fun to say on it’s own!

    Frodomoto was my first and best suggestion.

  98. stush18 says:

    godot10: Pouliot’s first two seasons in Edmonton were perfectly fine.He is a perfectly serviceable player for an open-minded coach.He has his flaws (offensive zone penalties), but most players have flaws. McLellan couldn’t accept Pouliot’s flaws, hence the rupture in the relationship.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvvx-0G7XHc

    MAN. I know you dislike tmac, but cmon. Don’t put pouliots failures at his feet.

    He was perfectly fine under the exact same system last year with tmac. He excelled. This year, he took costly penalties early in the season, and then couldn’t get back from injury.

    This is no way in any shape or form, under tmac.

  99. The Trade Guy says:

    Buying out Pouliot on the eve of free agency is a cautionary tale for spending in free agency.

  100. treevojo says:

    Mactavish’s time in the GM chair makes me wish we held on to Steve Tambellini for a couple more years.

    His gifts just keep on giving.

  101. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    “If you want to get paid that much that young” – Would you try and get paid as much as possible or would you settle for less?At your current work are you working for less than your peers?It’s not Leon’s fault, or Connor’s or Oscar’s that they get the contracts they get .. that is the industry, agents, etc …I am sure Leon would play hockeyfor $1 Million per year, but he doesn’t have to, hence pushing for the high end of what his agents peers have been able to negotiate …

    I am not saying he shouldn’t get what he can, what I am saying is if he asks for it – and it is his camp asking for it, not the Oilers trying to pay as much as possible for contracts – then he better perform at that level. No mulligans.

    It puts a lot of pressure on Leon. If you’re paid at the top you have to perform at the top, all of the time. Connor is a different story, Leon has no proven track record, he only has his concept of how he sees himself as a player.

    I think he’s a great young player, I’m not sure where his offense settles in without the rocket fuel. Completely fair and reasonable I think.

  102. Professor Q says:

    Remember when we were all talking about Horcoff’s contract, and even he commented on it?

    Good Old Days©

  103. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jethro Tull: Are we still doing phrasing?

    Hey Jethro!
    Huh? Me not smart enough.

  104. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great read from Freidman on the Trade:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/23-minutes-shook-hockey-world/

  105. ChiliChunk says:

    Atc-Nate:
    Didn’t I read that the Oil are moving on from Pitlick??

    David Pagnotta‏ @TheFourthPeriod Jun 25

    There’s a lot of interest in F Tyler Pitlick. Strong forward (C/RW) & great skater. He won’t be back w/ Oilers; caught many eyes b4 injury.

  106. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    I see that the tone of the interchange here remains steadfastly doom and gloom, sky is falling catastrophe kind of thing for many.

    Not exactly enjoyable. Have a nice season everyone.

    LT you area gifted writer, thanks for what you do! It is wonderful and evocative and pleasant.I shall continue to read your posts cause they are fun and ignore the comments cause they aren’t!

  107. Rake 2.0 says:

    Professor Q: Lucic… was much more effective than McDavid in the playoffs, too.

    You have to be joking.

  108. Professor Q says:

    Rake 2.0: You have to be joking.

    Not at all. Lucic stepped it up. McDavid couldn’t beat the Clutch and Grab. The refs screwed Edmonton but that doesn’t mean Lucic was a dead fish while that happened.

  109. Jethro Tull says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Hey Jethro!
    Huh? Me not smart enough.

    Hi!

    Archer reference anytime there’s even a hit of innuendo.

  110. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    – Well that’s a shame: I liked your posts and positivity!

  111. rickithebear says:

    looked at cap % ; 75M cap equivalent of the players
    near Drai in Ev production in 15-16, 18-17 and sum of both seasons.

    Crosby 17.125% 12.85M
    Ovechkin 16.82% 12.615M
    AVG 12.74M
    Mcdavid hopefully is under 13M

    Malkin (1st) 15.3% 11.483M
    Malkin (2nd) 14.78% 11.085M
    Toews 14.7% 11.025M
    Kane 14.7% 11.025M
    Avg 11.16M

    Kopitar 13.70% 10.275M
    Perry 13.41% 10.06M
    Zeterburg 13.35% 10.01M
    Benn 13.01% 9.76M
    Getzlaf 12.84% 9.63M
    Avg 9.95M

    Backstrom 11.8% 8.85M

    Tarasenko 10.5% 7.875M
    Hall 10.0% 7.5M
    Zajac 9.58% 7.185M
    Gaudreau 9.25% 6.94M
    Tavares 9.17% 6.88M
    Avg 7.28M

    Seguin 8.94% 6.71M

    Wheeler 8.7% 6.525M
    Schiefle 8.6% 6.45M
    Pavelski 8.4% 6.3M
    Saad 8.4% 6.3M
    Marchand 8.39% 6.3M
    Panarin (bridge) 8.2% 6.15M
    Avg 6.34M

    when we take the Avg of the players around Draisaitl
    15-16
    8.45% 6.378M
    he played 66.8% of time with hall and Purcell

    16-17
    11.63% 8.73M
    he played 60% of time with Marron and Mcdavid

    Sum of both seasons
    10.31% 7.74M

    When we lok at Stats from 2 seasons.
    With – EVG60 – EVP60 – CA60 – GDIF60
    Hall – 0.89 – 2.32 – 55.17 – +0.14
    Maroon – 0.60 – 1.95 – 53.45 – +1.05
    Mcdavid – 0.89 – 2.22 – 53.61 +1.16
    Purcell – 0.94 – 2.71 – 51.15 – +0.59
    Lucic – 0.29 – 1.43 – 52.50 – (-0.86)
    RNH – 0.66 – 2.95 – 54.78 – +0.98
    Kassian – 0.75 – 2.62 – 61.00 – Even
    Pouliot – 1.52 – 2.28 – 57.74 – (-1.14)
    Eberle – 0.39 – 0.78 – 54.24 – (-0.78)
    Slepyshev – 0.00 – 2.69 – 59.29 – +2.15
    Puljujarvi – 0.56 – 1.12 – 50.77 – +1.11

  112. haters says:

    Pou is proof that using analytics mostly to evaluate players is plain wrong. Russel as well. I personally didn’t mind how he played, especially in playoffs but there’s most likely locker room stuff that we aren’t privy too that sealed his fate.

    I stopped posting here most of the season, reason being is I used to put a decent amount of stock into analytics to rate players. I was pissed off last year because the Oilers signed Russell and his possession stats were sub par. So I watched him with an extra critical eye. Looking for the proof of his suckyness. To my surprise he was the best or second best dman we had on a lot of nights. Still I’d come here and see pure vitrol for him. Confused is the only word I really had. Confirming that possession stats are still ineffective for measuring true value in a player. They don’t measure things like momentum and critical moments that invariably define almost every game played.

    Also. Rip Semenko.
    Every day above ground has the potential to be great!
    Let’s enjoy today for Dave and be thankful 🙂

  113. Bag of Pucks says:

    In honour of the Oilers first and greatest ‘big brother,’ here is a blogpost I wrote nearly a decade ago about Semenk and the men who’ve done hockey’s hardest job in Oiler silks.

    http://thehockeywriters.com/edmonton-%E2%80%93-home-of-the-hockey-heavyweights/

    RIP #27, you were the first and the best, and your fellow warriors in the locker room knew how truly valuable your contribution was.

  114. Steve4 says:

    Cassandra: But what has happened with Pouliot and Fayne is self-inflicted.

    If Pouliiot can still play (I suspect we will have a chance to find out), and if Fayne can still play (I suspect we will not find out) then the cost of burying them in the minors or buying them out falls on Chiarelli.

    [Edit] That Fayne math made no sense.Still, if could play in the NHL still I don’t see the point of having him in the minors.

    The business of hockey is different from regular business. The salary cap and limited roster requires different logic.

    Pouliot is $4 million as our 3rd line left wing who can pk. His production (67, 8-6-14) can reasonably be replaced by internal options like: Cagiulla ($1.3 mil incl. bonus), or Slepyshev ($1.525 mil incl bonus). Lets assume (for simplicity) that Pouliot’s replacement will cost $1.67 mil. That makes the total cost to replace $3 mil for two years, a savings of $1 mil per year. The cost of that $1 mil x 2yr is the dead $1.33 mil in year three and four.

    That is the numerical reasoning for releasing Pouliot.

  115. Ribs says:

    Semenko was traded from Minnesota to the Oilers along with a 1979 3rd round pick which ended up being… Mark Messier.

    Neat!

  116. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jethro Tull: Hi!

    Archer reference anytime there’s even a hit of innuendo.

    Thank you, I feel like I’m catching up

  117. Bag of Pucks says:

    Shame that the Oilers could lose Pitlick to a larger contract elsewhere. He looked like he was headed for a breakout season before the injury. Can’t justify an overpay to keep him though. That injury history is a thing.

  118. Primetime says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Shame that the Oilers could lose Pitlick to a larger contract elsewhere. He looked like he was headed for a breakout season before the injury. Can’t justify an overpay to keep him though. That injury history is a thing.

    I don’t think that he will necessarily leave for a larger contract. Sometimes a player will decide to just move on to change his luck (cause his luck with Edmonton has been nothing but bad!)

    Would not surprise me to see him sign a real value contract with his hometown Minnesota Wild, especially since they just lost a young RW to Vegas (Tuch).

  119. Bank Shot says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Shame that the Oilers could lose Pitlick to a larger contract elsewhere. He looked like he was headed for a breakout season before the injury. Can’t justify an overpay to keep him though. That injury history is a thing.

    He was pulling a Bouma.

    I would have liked to keep Pitlick for around $1 million or so, but anyone signing him this year expecting him to repeat last season will probably be disappointed.

    Unless they are expecting him to get injured, that seems like a guarantee with the poor guy.

  120. frjohnk says:

    Does anybody know if there has been done a study on how many UFA contracts ( the big ones) end up getting bought out/ or should have been bought out?

  121. classict says:

    jtblack:
    The reasons to rail against PC (valid Opinions) and reasons to like some of his moves (opinion); but it should be noted he took over the biggest disaster the hockey world had seen, a record 10 years missing the playoffs!And the lineup he inherited proved just that. Bad players. Bad Contracts that he is still unwinding …

    Look at this beauty that is still affecting the Oilers today.
    “Edmonton Oilers general manager Craig MacTavish was active early on Day 1 of the free-agent season Tuesday, signing left-winger Benoit Pouliot and defenceman Mark Fayne.
    Pouliot, who signed off on a five-year contract worth a reported $20 million US, is fresh off a career-high 36-point season” – CBC

    PC was also gifted the chosen one and some great prospects, but that shouldn’t be confused with a clean slate … He has been trying to assemble an NHL defense, clean up the old, overpaid contracts and juggle what he is faced with today; signing two stars in a crazy cap world era …

    By why do people have faith he can do it?

    He took over what was primed to be the best team in Hockey when he took over Boston. The fact that they only won one cup with that core (most of which wasn’t even acquired by Chiarellii) and then flamed out completely should be considered a huge failure.

    Now he’s expected to take what was the worst team in the league but have better results. I hope he learned a lot…Good thing we have Connor.

  122. frjohnk says:

    I’m wondering if the Oilers are going to use the money saved from the Pouliot buyout to get 1 more bigger UFA contract and then end up having around $14M tied up to 3 players playing at the bottom of the roster in a couple of years plus the Pouliot buyout still on the books.

  123. Chachi says:

    classict: By why do people have faith he can do it?

    He took over what was primed to be the best team in Hockey when he took over Boston. The fact that they only won one cup with that core (most of which wasn’t even acquired by Chiarellii) and then flamed out completely should be considered a huge failure.

    Now he’s expected to take what was the worst team in the league but have better results. I hope he learned a lot…Good thing we have Connor.

    Here’s an article from noted Oilers’ apologist Jonathan Willis that seems to disagree with your take on this.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/new-edmonton-oilers-g-m-peter-chiarelli-completely-remade-the-bruins-defence-in-his-first-year-in-boston

    Good thing the Oilers have Connor.

  124. Ducey says:

    dustrock:
    Motor for Yamamoto

    I like Killer.

  125. classict says:

    Chachi,

    It doesn’t really disagree with it, that defence Willis lists is still really bad. He says so right in the article. Better but still bad, they finished last in the division the next year. He brought Chara with him from Ottawa which was his best move by far.

    The Bruins didn’t get good till the Bergeron cluster started playing 3 years later, but none of Bergeron, Krecji and Marchand were Chia picks.

    Edit: My point isn’t that the team was the best in Hockey when Chia took over, it’s they were a team with the prospect depth that happened to turn into what should have been the best team in Hockey. But the prospects weren’t picked by Chia.

  126. Munny says:

    These are the Daves I know.

    Crushed.

    Throat lumped. Fighting back tears.

    RIP Sammy.

  127. Chachi says:

    classict:
    Chachi,

    It doesn’t really disagree with it, that defence Willis lists is still really bad. He says so right in the article. Better but still bad, they finished last in the division the next year. He brought Chara with him from Ottawa which was his best move by far.

    The Bruins didn’t get good till the Bergeron cluster started playing 3 years later, but none ofBergeron, Krecji and Marchand were Chia picks.

    From the article:

    “There’s no way of knowing exactly what Peter Chiarelli has planned for the Edmonton Oilers now that he’s been named the team’s general manager. With that said, because he’s an experienced G.M. who has built a team from the ground up into a Stanley Cup champion, we might be able to get an idea by looking back at his first year with his last team, the Boston Bruins. Reviewing his actions then, we can get an idea for what course he might choose to take now.”

    Keep trying. Or I could just read Dennis King and Cam Thomson’s twitter feeds to see what you think.

  128. PunjabiOil says:

    Man, Chiarelli is just not bright. Full stop. Our Ferrari (McDavid) is being filled with 87 grade gas.

    1. By all accounts, the Oilers plan to do nothing on July 1. What good is vacant cap space, especially when you make room for dead cap space (for 4 years) in buying out Pouliot? Even with Drai at 8M, they should have ~7-9M in cap space.

    2. Buying out Fayne would make more sense if you must buy out anyone. 2 years of dead cap space versus 4, savings relatively close. Alternatively, 50% retained.

    3. Pouliot – two excellent seasons (48 and 53 points pro-rated). Had a bad year. Classic Oilers – buy high (Russell, Lucic), sell Low (Hall, Eberle, Pouliot). He was a good candidate to bounce back, but they made their decision irrespective of consequences.

    4. Demers available. KR 4 X 4M on June 23 makes even less sense now. Inability to read market. Vegas D prices dropped.

  129. classict says:

    Chachi: From the article:

    “There’s no way of knowing exactly what Peter Chiarelli has planned for the Edmonton Oilers now that he’s been named the team’s general manager. With that said, because he’s an experienced G.M. who has built a team from the ground up into a Stanley Cup champion, we might be able to get an idea by looking back at his first year with his last team, the Boston Bruins. Reviewing his actions then, we can get an idea for what course he might choose to take now.”

    Keep trying. Or I could just read Dennis King and Cam Thomson’s twitter feeds to see what you think.

    If Willis thinks Chia built the Bruins from the ground up then I strongly disagree with him. I’d be interested to hear why he thinks that’s true.

    “Reviewing his actions” the prospects that were already in Boston when Chiarelli got there turned all turned out to be great. So his goal for the Oilers should be hope Drai, McDavid, and Klefbom keep improving and try not to screw up too much else?

    I have no problem giving him credit for some of the good moves he’s done so far with Edmonton. And so far I don’t think he’s been awful, but I don’t think his time in Boston should be used to give him the benefit of the doubt.

    Edit: I like the keep trying at the end, really promotes discussion. Great for the atmosphere.

  130. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    In some ways it is a cruel world that overpayment for complementary players can in fact result in job risk.

    Sorry it did not work out for Pou but at his term and cap hit…well..

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/07/01/oilers-sign-pouliot/#comment-324385

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    There was an article at the Journal years back looking into predicting injuries because of the constant parade to the IR. The best predictor is previous injuries. Pitlick still has promise, they likely want to go with somebody less injury prone.

  132. Chachi says:

    classict: If Willis thinks Chia built the Bruins from the ground up then I strongly disagree with him. I’d be interested to hear why he thinks that’s true.

    “Reviewing his actions” the prospects that were already in Boston when Chiarelli got there turned all turned out to be great. So his goal for the Oilers should be hope Drai, McDavid, and Klefbom keep improving and try not to screw up too much else?

    I have no problem giving him credit for some of the good moves he’s done so far with Edmonton. And so far I don’t think he’s been awful, but I don’t think his time in Boston should be used to give him the benefit of the doubt.

    Fair enough. I have no problem with criticizing his moves here, but there was no guarantee that Boston team was going to win anything. He managed the coaches and players into a team that went to two cup finals in his time in Boston. As you acknowledge they were no screaming hell in his first year there. Giving him no credit for the turn-around there is, in my opinion, just wrong.

  133. Chachi says:

    classict: Edit: I like the keep trying at the end, really promotes discussion. Great for the atmosphere.

    Glad you liked it. I’ll dim the lights and put “Boléro” on the hi-fi to make the atmosphere even better.

  134. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Seravalli says FLA is trying to give Demers away and they signed Russell for 4 years hnggggggggg

    Unless you trade Nurse or Sekera away, just doesn’t work

  135. npanciroli says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Weird because we even invited Demers last year. I would trade for that and worry about too many defence later IMO.

  136. P2theickles1 says:

    If Demers is available and likely for pennies on the dollar if FLA wants to get rid of him.

    Chia should be making that phone call ASAP and getting it done.

    Next years 2nd round? What’s a reasonable price to pay?

    2017-2018 Defense

    Kelfbom – Larsson
    Russell – Demers
    Nurse – Benning
    Gryba

    Then Sekera isn’t rushed back at all and when he is ready to play and up to game shape you run:

    Kelfbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Demers
    Nurse – Benning

    And rotate in Russel whenever needed.

    Can always trade Russel, Demers or whoever at trade deadline or next year when the cap is a real issue.

    Solid defensive depth would be huge in the playoffs

  137. LoDog says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Seravalli says FLA is trying to give Demers away and they signed Russell for 4 years hnggggggggg

    Unless you trade Nurse or Sekera away, just doesn’t work

    Thats how bad Demers was last year and obv Florida regrets that signing very much.

  138. LadiesloveSmid says:

    P2theickles1,

    No way in hell they sign Russell to 4×4 then sit him in the press box when Sekera is back. Also he has a full NMC for the next 2 seasons so he’s not moving. Edmonton genuinely believes he’s a quality 2RD option.

  139. Ducey says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Seravalli says FLA is trying to give Demers away and they signed Russell for 4 years hnggggggggg

    Unless you trade Nurse or Sekera away, just doesn’t work

    Demers has a NTC with a list of teams. He didn’t want to come her last year. Why would he now? And given he had a brutal year, why would the Oilers want to pay him $4.5 M x 4?

  140. Ducey says:

    LoDog: Thats how bad Demers was last year and obv Florida regrets that signing very much.

    Funny. People don’t cite him as the alternative to the Hall trade much anymore.

  141. LoDog says:

    Ducey,

    Man I will laugh if Florida has to retain salary to trade him.

  142. frjohnk says:

    P2theickles1: Can always trade Russel

    nope.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/kris-russell

    Russell has a NMC for the duration of the 4 year contract. He can be traded in the 3rd year and 4th year. 10 team list in 3rd year, 15 team list 4th.

    With his NMC he can not be moved to the minors at anytime and if there is an expansion draft in the next couple of years, Russell will have to be protected ( unless he waives)

  143. classict says:

    Ducey: Demers has a NTC with a list of teams. He didn’t want to come her last year. Why would he now? And given he had a brutal year, why would the Oilers want to pay him $4.5 M x 4?

    I thought I had heard he did want to come here, he even flew out to Edmonton. Oilers decided against it (which makes it unlikely that they go for him now)

    He wasn’t that bad in Florida last year…

  144. Bank Shot says:

    Ducey: Demers has a NTC with a list of teams. He didn’t want to come her last year. Why would he now? And given he had a brutal year, why would the Oilers want to pay him $4.5 M x 4?

    He visited Edmonton so he must have been interested to come.

    Otherwise he’d just have his agent ignore the Oilers calls.

    The real question is whether Demers is actually better than Russell, or just corsi better?

  145. Bag of Pucks says:

    Primetime: I don’t think that he will necessarily leave for a larger contract.Sometimes a player will decide to just move on to change his luck (cause his luck with Edmonton has been nothing but bad!)

    Would not surprise me to see him sign a real value contract with his hometown Minnesota Wild, especially since they just lost a young RW to Vegas (Tuch).

    Likable young guy. I hope he lands on his feet wherever he goes. Could be one of next season’s true ‘value contacts’ ala Patrick Eaves if he stays healthy.

  146. P2theickles1 says:

    Bank Shot,

    Even if Russel and Demers are relatively equal wouldn’t it have been better to have an actual RHD play the right side?

  147. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bank Shot: He visited Edmonton so he must have been interested to come.

    Otherwise he’d just have his agent ignore the Oilers calls.

    The real question is whether Demers is actually better than Russell, or just corsi better?

    Corsi better. That’s good. I used to work in a Brit dominated workplace and I would always kid them when they mentioned some ‘fetching bird.’ “Is she really hot OR ‘british’ hot?” Trust me, there’s a difference. That country really needs to revisit their dental hygiene practices.

  148. frjohnk says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    In some ways it is a cruel world that overpayment for complementary players can in fact result in job risk.

    Sorry it did not work out for Pou but at his term and cap hit…well..

    http://lowetide.ca/2014/07/01/oilers-sign-pouliot/#comment-324385

    You nailed it!!!

    Interesting, 3 years ago Jim Nill was looked at being the one of the best GM’s in the league and a few of the comments in that link support that.
    After some bad signings ( goaltenders especially) failure to properly access his young D, the team took a few steps back and Nill does not look so good.

  149. TO10801 says:

    No way you can trade for Demers with Russell and Sekera having NMCs next offseason. The focus should be on someone who has an expiring contract or can be signed to a one year deal. I would have time for Beauchemin in free agency or Emelin/Sbisa with retained salary from Vegas.

  150. Ducey says:

    classict: I thought I had heard he did want to come here, he even flew out to Edmonton. Oilers decided against it (which makes it unlikely that they go for him now)

    He wasn’t that bad in Florida last year…

    I think he came and my impression was that he didn’t like what he saw. I recall that when Chia was asked about it he seemed pissed.

  151. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    frjohnk,

    Blind pig in my case. Or is it squirrel? Or am I the acorn?

  152. frjohnk says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    frjohnk,

    Blind pig in my case. Or is it squirrel? Or am I the acorn?

    All of thee above?

  153. LadiesloveSmid says:

    TO10801:
    No way you can trade for Demers with Russell and Sekera having NMCs next offseason. The focus should be on someone who has an expiring contract or can be signed to a one year deal. I would have time for Beauchemin in free agency or Emelin/Sbisa with retained salary from Vegas.

    If only Campbell would come to Edmonton

  154. Thinker says:

    Kailer’s nickname is Krazr. Already has a theme song.
    https://youtu.be/V6OXwTqpWbs

  155. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Unless there is a trade, the only way a D is added is on a one year, so not a guy who commands a large salary or term likely.

  156. Lowetide says:

    Development roster out, includes some of the rumored fellows and not others. Plus some surprises

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/edmonton-oilers-development-camp-set-for-july-1-5-in-jasper-alberta/c-290224250

  157. Georges says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Seravalli says FLA is trying to give Demers away and they signed Russell for 4 years hnggggggggg

    Unless you trade Nurse or Sekera away, just doesn’t work

    – FLA (21st in GA/GP, 23rd in SA/GP)
    – is trying to give Demers (29 yrs old, played over 20 minutes per game in just one season in his career, below 100 5v5 PDO for the past 6 years!)
    – away and they (the Oilers, 8th in GA/GP, 9th in SA/GP)
    – signed Russell (30 years old, played over 20 minutes per game the past 4 seasons, over 100 5v5 PDO in 5 of his past 6 seasons)
    – for 4 years (at the end of which Russell is 34 and Demers is a wee lad of 33)
    – hnggggggggg

  158. dustrock says:

    Lowetide:
    Development roster out, includes some of the rumored fellows and not others. Plus some surprises

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/edmonton-oilers-development-camp-set-for-july-1-5-in-jasper-alberta/c-290224250

    The vagueness of this made me laugh for some reason.

  159. Ducey says:

    Lowetide:
    Development roster out, includes some of the rumored fellows and not others. Plus some surprises

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/edmonton-oilers-development-camp-set-for-july-1-5-in-jasper-alberta/c-290224250

    yeah.

    I thought Svoboda was gone.

    A McLellan? Coach’s son?

    And Klima twins? They look like the were both traded to Chicoutimi and fell off a cliff offensively. I guess they miss not having the Jones boys.

  160. Ribs says:

    Lowetide,

    The coach’s kid! Wouldn’t that be something! haha

  161. Jethro Tull says:

    Bag of Pucks: Corsi better. That’s good. I used to work in a Brit dominated workplace and I would always kid them when they mentioned some ‘fetching bird.’ “Is she really hot OR ‘british’ hot?” Trust me, there’s a difference. That country really needs to revisit their dental hygiene practices.

    Thanks for the racial stereotyping, wanker. Now go shout at your wife in public, you Jacked Up Truck Driving, Tap Out Shirt wearing, ‘Roid Raging red neck.

    Love, Your friendly neighbourhood Brit.

    PS, Happy Canada Day.

  162. Ribs says:

    Also, I completely forgot that the Oilers drafted George McPhee’s kid last year.

  163. dustrock says:

    Ribs:
    Also, I completely forgot that the Oilers drafted George McPhee’s kid last year.

    Really helped grease the palms for all those great Las Vegas trades

  164. Bank Shot says:

    hunter1909: What a load of crap. Ever been to the UK? It’s got some of the hottest women anywhere. Canadian women are fat, stupid, and clueless by comparison.

    In my personal experience England, and Canada have more in common than different.

    Now Polish girls and Italian/Spanish girls on the other hand. 🙂

  165. Thor762 says:

    Yamamoto’s nickname should be Kamikaze.

  166. VOR says:

    Scungilli slushy,

    I thought you might be interested in this fascinating paper on hockey injuries and personality types.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3134906/

    This paper is just one of many in the field. Several pro teams are now testing for these personality types pre-draft.

  167. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Thor762:
    Yamamoto’s nickname should be Kamikaze.

    We can do better than that, I think.

  168. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Georges: – FLA (21st in GA/GP, 23rd in SA/GP)
    – is trying to give Demers (29 yrs old, played over 20 minutes per game in just one season in his career, below 100 5v5 PDO for the past 6 years!)
    – away and they (the Oilers, 8th in GA/GP, 9th in SA/GP)
    – signed Russell (30 years old, played over 20 minutes per game the past 4 seasons, over 100 5v5 PDO in 5 of his past 6 seasons)
    – for 4 years (at the end of which Russell is 34 and Demers is a wee lad of 33)
    – hnggggggggg

    We really have to give credit where it’s due. Nate Guenin and Dan Girardi among the best PDO defenceman the past 3 seasons! Which we now use to measure D for some odd reason.

    You’d think playing for a worse team wouldn’t devalue players in an oilers fan of all people’s eyes. I’ve seen tons pass through on a team that was 28th-30th in SA/gp

  169. misfit says:

    P2theickles1:
    Bank Shot,

    Even if Russel and Demers are relatively equal wouldn’t it have been better to have an actual RHD play the right side?

    That’s the funny thing about “equal”. If they are, then handedness wouldn’t make a difference. Having a RHD playing RD over a LHD is the goal because you would hope/expect the results to be better.

    If the results are the same, then Russell is actually a better move. If Russell as a LHD playing RD is as good as Demers as a RHD playing RD, then he should be better at LD than Demers is, so there’s flexibility with Russell that you don’t have with Demers. There’s also the matter of him being $500K cheaper.

  170. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    One season and we have short memories. Bad teams make good players look bad. And measuring a defenseman’s effectiveness by PDO…what???

  171. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    Scungilli slushy,

    I thought you might be interested in this fascinating paper on hockey injuries and personality types.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3134906/

    This paper is just one of many in the field. Several pro teams are now testing for these personality types pre-draft.

    Thanks Vor, are there lots of pictures?

  172. commonfan29 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Yamamoto’s nickname should be Kamikaze.
    We can do better than that, I think.

    Hard to see it ending up being anything but Yammer.

  173. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    Scungilli slushy,

    I thought you might be interested in this fascinating paper on hockey injuries and personality types.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3134906/

    This paper is just one of many in the field. Several pro teams are now testing for these personality types pre-draft.

    That’s interesting thanks. It is fairly logical once you’ve had kids. I have one who needs to be reminded constantly that he isn’t a superhero in a cartoon, also the most athletic and ahead of his peers. I’m surprised his body survived toddlerhood 🙂

  174. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    commonfan29: Hard to see it ending up being anything but Yammer.

    Yes, I’m sure Kailer Sose was already shot down.

  175. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Not saying Oil should get Demers. But if the price is low and, salary could go back the other way they shouldn’t rule it out.

    That said, I would be shocked if it happened.

  176. Lucinius says:

    commonfan29: Hard to see it ending up being anything but Yammer.

    Given how players do nicknames (badly) he’ll either be Yammer or Yams.

  177. Lucinius says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Not saying Oil should get Demers. But if the price is low and, salary could go back the other way they shouldn’t rule it out.

    That said, I would be shocked if it happened.

    Doubt Florida wants salary back. Supposedly part of why they’re shopping Demers is an owner mandate to drop 10 mil in salary from last year.

  178. Georges says:

    LadiesloveSmid: We really have to give credit where it’s due. Nate Guenin and Dan Girardi among the best PDO defenceman the past 3 seasons! Which we now use to measure D for some odd reason.

    You’d think playing for a worse team wouldn’t devalue players in an oilers fan of all people’s eyes. I’ve seen tons pass through on a team that was 28th-30th in SA/gp

    Hmm…

    Girardi played in front of Henrik, so his consistently high PDO has a reason. I have no idea who Nate Guenin is. Cool you use a fringe player who didn’t even play last season. Where’d you do your research?

    Let’s say PDO is like a fair coin flip with most players because most players have the same skill level. So you get a (roughly) 50% chance above 100 and a 50% chance below 100. So 6 years in a row below 100 would be a 1/64 probability. There are, what, roughly 700 players who played the season 6 years ago. Let’s say (I’m totally guessing) 300 of them played in the next 6 seasons. So, we should expect 5 of them to be like Demers (always below 100 in PDO), just by chance, even though they’re equally skilled. So, yeah, maybe not so convincing. But it’s a data point.

    The fact he’s 29 years old and his coaches trusted him to play over 20 minutes per game in just one season so far in his career is another data point.

    The fact that one of those coaches was TMac is another data point.

    That FLA is looking to give him away (in your words) after a bad season for the team (and his first year after signing) is another data point.

  179. Georges says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    One season and we have short memories. Bad teams make good players look bad. And measuring a defenseman’s effectiveness by PDO…what???

    Thoughts on measuring a defenseman’s effectiveness? CF%?

    edit: Also, one season? Short memories? When were the golden days of Demers being awesome? Was he so awesome that his coaches just had to hold themselves back from playing him to not damage his awesomeness?

  180. Cassandra says:

    Georges: Hmm…

    Girardi played in front of Henrik, so his consistently high PDO has a reason. I have no idea who Nate Guenin is. Cool you use a fringe player who didn’t even play last season. Where’d you do your research?

    Let’s say PDO is like a fair coin flip with most players because most players have the same skill level. So you get a (roughly) 50% chance above 100 and a 50% chance below 100. So 6 years in a row below 100 would be a 1/64 probability. There are, what, roughly 700 players who played the season 6 years ago. Let’s say (I’m totally guessing) 300 of them played in the next 6 seasons. So, we should expect 5 of them to be like Demers (always below 100 in PDO), just by chance, even though they’re equally skilled. So, yeah, maybe not so convincing. But it’s a data point.

    The fact he’s 29 years old and his coaches trusted him to play over 20 minutes per game in just one season so far in his career is another data point.

    The fact that one of those coaches was TMac is another data point.

    That FLA is looking to give him away (in your words) after a bad season for the team (and his first year after signing) is another data point.

    Come now George, you know better. Russell has a high PDO in five out of six years. Looks like a pattern right? Except in some years he has a high PDO because of high shooting percentages for and in other years he has a high PDO because of high save percentages. So if you look at the components that make up PDO what looks like a pattern is not, in fact, a pattern.

  181. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Georges: Thoughts on measuring a defenseman’s effectiveness? CF%?

    My personal opinion, worth no more than any one else’s is that a basket of measures, including HDSC against, zone entries allowed, etc. makes sense. CF% alone is flawed, especially for D, in my opinion. PDO just seems arbitrary to me as a standalone, but if a correlation with some other stats can be found, maybe? I just was surprised to see A) that being used, B) you using it as a standalone.

    I don’t hate Russell. Just not a fan of the contract, but I generally hate most of the multiyear deals handed out to complementary players by this team. That includes players I like, e.g. Pouliot above.

    Too much term and NMCs etc. A lot is pre Chia but look at Ference, Lucic, Russell, Pouliot, Fayne, shoot who was that enforcer who got a 2 year deal instead of one?

    A lot of careless contracts for supporting cast meaning the money is just so tight. Russell at 3x 3.5m I could take. just like I thought Pou should be in the 3 x 3m rangex not 5 x 4m, especially as he had been a drifter his whole career.

  182. Cassandra says:

    And if you look at Demers you see the same pattern. Just two seasons ago the Sharks allowed only 1.89 GA/60 while he was on the ice (which is excellent) with a save percentage of .93 which is also very good. His PDO is 99.8 (basically average) because the on-ice shooting percentage is low.

    So while you are attributing his low PDO (which was actually dead on average in two of the past four seasons) to poor defensive skills, a breakdown of the components of what goes into PDO does not indicate that. There may be an underlying difference in skill but you can’t see that in the numbers.

  183. Full Clapper Top Cheddar says:

    Lucinius: Given how players do nicknames (badly) he’ll either be Yammer or Yams.

    What about “Jelly” for a nickname considering his initials are KY?

  184. Georges says:

    Cassandra: Come now George, you know better.Russell has a high PDO in five out of six years.Looks like a pattern right?Except in some years he has a high PDO because of high shooting percentages for and in other years he has a high PDO because of high save percentages.So if you look at the components that make up PDO what looks like a pattern is not, in fact, a pattern.

    Hmm…

    What am I trying to say about Russell and Demers and PDO? Should I have left Russell’s results out and just highlighted Demers?

    I know that high skill players and teams are likely to consistently have above 100 PDO. I also know that thrown into that above 100 group in a given season are many more average skill players and teams that got lucky and drop off.

    I’m going from that to if players and teams have consistently below 100 PDO, there may be a skill deficiency relative to the league. Demers’ bad PDO combined with his comparative lack of playing time combined with FLA wanting to move on after 1 year gets me to Demers ain’t that great.

    I don’t think I can make the argument for superior skill on Russell’s part because, well, he doesn’t look the part. And 5 out of 6 seasons is different enough from 6 out of 6 (6 times more probable) that there’s no point to make there. So, yeah, dumb on my part.

    But you’re doing something here I don’t quite follow. You’re taking the components of PDO and you’re saying there’s no pattern in the components even though there’s a pattern in the sum. You did it again with the Demers post below.

    I have a random variable (PDO) that is the sum of 2 independent random variables (sh% + sv%). PDO, at the player level, has a median that’s close to 100. The statements I’m making about Demers and PDO are based on those assumptions. The math in your observation and how it relates to (or invalidates) my observation is a little perplexing. Care to explain?

  185. Lucinius says:

    Full Clapper Top Cheddar: What about “Jelly” for a nickname considering his initials are KY?

    Players aren’t that creative anymore. That and far too politically correct and mindful of the image they put out. The days of fun and interesting nicknames is gone.

    Also, any nickname even loosely associated with anal sex just isn’t going to happen.

    It’ll be Yammer or Yams.

  186. Cassandra says:

    Georges,

    PDO is a component stat. A second order stat. It doesn’t measure what happened directly. Rather it is the addition of two stats that did measure something directly. If you break PDO into its component parts the consistent pattern breaks down. So for Russell one year the team has a good save percentage the next he doesn’t. One year his team has a good shooting percentage the next it doesn’t. It just so happens that these years offset each other so that when you add them together you get a consistent positive pattern. But that’s a function of the addition not of what actually happened, assuming that shooting percentage and save percentage are independent of each other.

    If the good shooting and save years had happened at the same time and the bad shooting and save years had happened at the same time we would observe radicallly fluctuating PDO out of the same core performance.

    A similar thing happens with Demers though less extreme because his numbes are not buoyed in the same way by outlier years on the good side in team shooting percentage. But this should only count against Demers if you think defense can significantly aid or hurt on-ice shooting percentage. But I’m not sure why you would think that in comparison to all the other things that go into that, for instance the skill of the player taking the shot when it is in close, which is usually not a defensemen, or the amount of luck involved in shots from outside.

  187. Georges says:

    Cassandra,

    Interesting. And light on math. How do you feel about

    CF60/(CF60 + CA60)

    and

    GF60/(GF60 + GA60)

    ?

  188. Gret99zky says:

    Kailer: “They call me Bruce?”

  189. Trevor457 says:

    What about Jagr as a UFA? He would sign a 1 year contract, probably be cheap, and he scored 46 points last year so he can still play. Signing him would take the pressure off of Puljujarvi to play in the top 6 next year.

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