STOP THAT TRAIN

This feels like those Saturday nights at the lake in my youth. It’s probably going to be fun, anything can happen, try not to drown. We enter the weekend with Connor McDavid’s eight-year deal a promise waiting to be kept, Ty Rattie the likely early signing, and Leon Draisaitl somewhere between the moon and New York City.

STOP THAT TRAIN!

Brian Lawton caused a fire storm with a tweet last night and Oilers fans are upset about possibly losing Leon Draisaitl to an offer sheet. This is a sticky wicket for all involved and has every chance to turn out very badly for all involved. Here are the facts as I see them:

  • The tweets from Mr. Lawton suggest to me at least some effort to drum up business or apply pressure.
  • There may be an offer sheet to come but Peter Chiarelli tells us he will match.
  • If the OS exceeds $10 million, suspect we’ll see the Oilers match and trade Leon at a later date.
  • Leon is a wonderful player with great value, but $7.5 million is the range we should be talking about here. His playoff run was a lot of fun to watch but the problem is that run seems to have created a monster.
  • There is a very real chance Leon Draisaitl is 12 months or less from playing for another NHL team. Remember, the cap crunch on 97’s deal begins fall 2018.
  • If Peter Chiarelli ends up trading Draisaitl this summer, you should at least consider that result as being best available (depending on return). Simply matching the OS loses value once you reach $10 million and a trade may be a more preferable outcome.

LEON DRAISAITL WOWY 97

  • Leon Draisaitl with Connor McDavid: 10-15-25 2.24 5×5/60 (53.7% Corsi for 5×5)
  • Connor McDavid with Leon Draisaitl: 11-23-34 3.04 5×5/60 (53.7% Corsi for 5×5)
  • Leon Draisaitl without Connor McDavid: 3-12-15 1.80 5×5/60 (47.9% Corsi for 5×5)
  • Connor McDavid without Leon Draisaitl: 10-19-29 2.72 5×5/60 (52.1% Corsi for 5×5)
  • Source

That’s the number (1.80 5×5/60) that should worry Leon Draisaitl and his agent. If someone signs him to an $11 million per year offer sheet, they are getting a very fine young player who was zoomed by Connor McDavid. Leon can’t take 97 with him and that’s kind of the reason signing him to a massive contract is balls out stupid. We wait.

PETER CHIARELLI’S SUMMER LIST

  1. Finalize long term deal for Connor McDavid. This is JOB ONE.
  2. Finalize long term deal for Leon Draisaitl. This is JOB TWO
  3. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future. (Griffin Reinhart fits this description. Mission accomplished).
  4. Find a second pairing RHD with two-way acumen.
  5. Find a stopgap measure to replace Andrej Sekera’s minutes. (Kris Russell fits this description. His being signed to a four-year deal does not match the ‘stopgap’ portion of the requirement).
  6. Find a C-R who can help the offense and mirror Leon. Ideally a first-person shooter. (Ryan Strome falls under the umbrella of this description).
  7. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline. (Eberle for Strome cut $3.5 million, the Pouliot buyout added about $2.667 million to the cap room).

PETER CHIARELLI SECONDARY SUMMER LIST

  1. Re-stock the shelves via the draft. Universal positives on the Oilers draft. Three good-to-great trips to the annual selection have helped overall quality and depth. 
  2. Improve overall team speed. Yamamoto certainly does, and most of the draft this year had speed as a positive. Ryan Strome had good speed on his draft day (Luedeke: Excellent skater who can beat defenders with his speed or elusiveness) and remains a good NHL skater. 
  3. Offload Benoit Pouliot. Chiarelli got the job done, but via buyout. That’s no ideal. 
  4. Improve goaltending depth. This is quickly turning into a team strength, credit to Chiarelli. Added college man Shane Starrett and drafted Stuart Skinner. Since arriving in Edmonton, PC has traded for Cam Talbot, signed two college free agents and drafted three goalies. 
  5. Improve AHL quality. If the rumors are true and Ty Rattie is signed to a two-way deal today, that’s a start. I expect we’ll see several similar signings over the next few weeks. 
  6. Cull the LHD herd. Griffin Reinhart, Andrew Ference, Brandon Davidson, David Musil, Mark Fraser are gone. There is more balance on the defense than there was a year ago.

ASSETS OUT

  1. Jordan Eberle
  2. Griffin Reinhart
  3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  4. Cap Space
  5. Jesse Puljujarvi
  6. Caleb Jones
  7. 2018 first-round selection
  8. Benoit Pouliot
  9. Anton Slepyshev
  10. Jujhar Khaira
  11. Ethan Bear

ORIENTATION CAMP!

The Oilers youngest and newest head to Jasper today for orientation camp. We get some interviews and photos, with the gathered media offering insight into who has hit the weight room and who is healthy. I wrote about the invites the other day, the following is a re-print:

  • G Miroslav Svoboda: Drafted but not signed by Edmonton, this may be his last visit. Or maybe they sign him later.
  • LD Mark Auk. He was at rookie camp a year ago, Michigan Tech LHD, he is 22.
  • RD Sahvan Khaira: Huge defender (and Jujhar’s brother) went 70gp, 1-16-17 for the Swift Current Broncos. Has one more year in junior.
  • L Jake Lucchini: Undersized winger scored 11 goals for Michigan Tech, he is 22.
  • LC Brandon Saigeon: Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL) forward is 19 and scored 49 points in 66 games this past season.
  • RC Steve Owre: WHL skill center is now finished in junior and at 21 this is a nice opportunity (especially if it turns into a rookie camp invite).  88 points in 71 games.
  • RC Ethan Szypula: One of the more promising names on this year’s invite list, he went 11-36-47 in 64 games for Owen Sound (OHL). Brock Otten: Szypula is not a big guy (5’11, 170ish), but he plays a big man’s game.
  • RC Tyson McLellan: Todd’s son is undersized and his U. Denver numbers (43gp, 5-7-12) are fine for a freshman (he played and that’s important).
  • C Kevin Klima: Small skill center is 20 years old and scored 36 points in two QMJHL stops this season. He has a twin brother you’ll read about in a second and they are both Petr’s boys.
  • R Kelly Klima: Small skill winger is 20 years old and scored 49 points while with two teams in the QMJHL this year. Petr Klima did play in Edmonton the year these kids were born.
  • R Davis Koch: Edmonton Oil Kings winger has improved each season (he is 19) and scored at almost a point-per-game this year. Should be one of the better skill forwards.
  • R William Graber: He is 21, 6.03 and had 19 points in 29 games at Dartmouth as a freshman. An older prospect, interesting resume.
  • R Chad Butcher: Small winger (5.10, 172) was a Penticton invite one year ago. Speed main weapon.

As for the names you know:

  • Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells and Shane Starrett will join Svoboda among the goalies. Always interested in the new hires and comments from the goalie experts.
  • Ethan Bear will attend but not play, still recovering from injury.
  • Filip Berglund is a player I’ll pay special attention to in terms of news. He is 20 now, so we should be able to gauge things like foot speed against men like Caleb Jones (who is a fast train) to see how much of a gap we’re looking at with him.
  • Dmitri Samorukov has quite a bit of positive verbal from respected sources, how does he move the puck?
  • Ryan Mantha has a similar skill set to Bear, how is his footwork? Shot?
  • Tyler Benson couldn’t take part one year ago, how does he look this year? Probably the number one question heading into this camp.
  • Do the Klima kids wear the correct buckets and tape their sticks the right way?
  • Aidan Muir remains a mystery of some sorts, is he healthy and does he stand out physically from the younger men at the camp?
  • Graham McPhee. How skilled is he? I hold out real hope for this player.
  • Roster is here.

FREE-AGENT LIST

  1. R Radim Vrbata (81gp, 20-35-55). Scorer.
  2. RD Christian Folin (51gp, 2-6-8). Young, available, skilled.
  3. RD Cody Franson (68GP, 3-16-19). One-year deal? I would do it.
  4. C-L Brandon Pirri  (60gp, 8-10-18). Low-cost scorer.
  5. LC Dominic Moore  (82gp, 11-14-25). PK and FO option.
  6. R P-A Parenteau  (67gp, 13-15-28)Can still score.
  7. LD Yohann Auvitu (25gp, 2-2-4). He looks like a player.
  8. LC Mikhail Grigorenko (75gp, 10-13-23). Good faceoff man, young, had utility.
  9. R Alex Chiasson  (81gp, 12-12-24). Has some value.
  10. R Ty Rattie (9gp, 0-2-2). Sounds like a two-way deal.

If the Oilers plan to spend money today (it doesn’t sound like it) you might see Patrick Marleau, Drew Stafford, Brian Boyle or Jarome Iginla being mentioned. Remember, Peter Chiarelli likes older players plenty.

Note: I will update as we go, but won’t have a new post until 6pm unless the signing/trade is major. I will be part of TSN1260’s ongoing free-agent coverage at noon, Dave Jamieson and Matt Iwanyk kick off coverage at 10 this morning. Enjoy the day and happy Canada Day!

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279 Responses to "STOP THAT TRAIN"

« Older Comments
  1. fifthcartel says:

    treevojo: FTFY

    Being critical of suspect moves is part of the fan experience for me. If you want to support any and all moves that’s your call. You can simply not read my posts if they bother you so much.

  2. Lewis Grant says:

    By the way, LT, thanks for all you do.

    Happy Canada Day everyone!

  3. Diablo says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I’d take that Hanzal deal in EDM for sure, ship RNH off for a young inexpensive D or W

    No income tax in Dallas – we never could have gotten him for that price.

  4. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If they bridge Leon it has to be short, two years and then pay him if he’s the goods. If he holds out then for a ridiculous overpay he’ll be even more valuable, move him. Fair all round to me, buys some time.

  5. N64 says:

    fifthcartel: 5 years at 7.5 makes zero sense. Those are all RFA years. They should be getting a heavy discount if so.

    Owners have all seen it that way and stayed away from offer sheets to make it so. PA and agents see it differently. They recognized the last few years that the elite contracts is the place to reverse the table.

  6. OmJo says:

    Lucinius: Jagr and Hemsky together is something Oiler fans wanted a decade ago. Never happened. Some of us still want it. Just because.

    Man, there was Vanek and Hemsky, Jagr and Hemsky, Heatley and Hemsky, Hossa and Hemsky, Lecalavier and Hemsky… Poor Hemsky.

  7. Chris says:

    If we’re looking for tweeners/reclaimation prospects what would everyone think of giving Emerson Etem a shot?

  8. leadfarmer says:

    It’s amazing how after the first 10 picks that 2011 draft second round is better than the first. After Klefbom and Rakell, Namestnikov is as good as it gets. Compared to Kucherov Saad Gibson Rask and Jenner.

  9. Lucinius says:

    OmJo: Man, there was Vanek and Hemsky, Jagr and Hemsky, Heatley and Hemsky, Hossa and Hemsky, Lecalavier and Hemsky… Poor Hemsky.

    And the one time he had a good first line centre the guy got hurt at the god damn All-Star game and was never the same offensively.

  10. Diablo says:

    McSorley33:
    Chris,

    Makes 1.25 million -less-than RNH

    Scores Similar.

    Wins faceoffs

    240 pounds.

    And now plays in Texas, where they don’t have income tax. Very important point.

  11. Diablo says:

    Looks like Williams went to Carolina.

    LOL Matt Hunwick signed for 3 years x 2.25 million.

  12. McSorley33 says:

    As Diablo says, I don’t think any Canadian team had a chance at Hanzal….so, I am not criticizing PC.

    But, RNH is not a fit at 3C…..in salary, in size or in winning faceoffs.

  13. McSorley33 says:

    Diablo,

    No I agree

  14. Chris says:

    Small deal but Landon Ferraro goes to the Wild. Also Keegan Lowe is apparently looking for a new NHL team after being cut loose by Montreal. The pull of Bakersfield is strong to that one.

  15. OmJo says:

    Benoit Pouliot is a good NHL LW.

  16. Munny says:

    Wiercioch goes home for little more than a nickel.

  17. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Chris:
    Small deal but Landon Ferraro goes to the Wild. Also Keegan Lowe is apparently looking for a new NHL team after being cut loose by Montreal. The pull of Bakersfield is strong to that one.

    He said he didn’t want to play on his Dad’s team, maybe that’s changed.

  18. Munny says:

    OmJo,

    31 NHL GMs disagree. Just sayin.

  19. rickithebear says:

    Lucinius:
    rickithebear,

    I’m not going to debate stats with you (I don’t keep track of advanced stats like a lot of you guys); but from watching him play, as someone who’s played the position.. there’s issues with the guy in terms of how he plays the game. Positioning, how he goes down/gets up, etc., that type of thing. Nothing huge, but the guy has some red flags to me that make me doubt his ability to be consistent year-to-year long term.

    Your a victim of closed set mind coach and fan.

    I have stated in tge past to playing at a world level with guys who are mechnaics awkward.
    But in the correct spot and could know were they would be. Symbiosis.
    A guy teams would not draft cause of not fiiting what old scholl numbers are desired.

    But repeatable base play with consistent system and results. That is what you chase!
    They may not seem sound i percieved mechanics but bill belichek drafts you cause you are consitent at desired resulrs.

    Since all but. 2 dmen are mid 4th to press box forward even offence.
    All dmen need to do is get the puck to the forwards.
    Not skate up the puck letting opposition set – up forward nz trap amd zone entry press by d.

    Dmen do they
    1. Create as high% for most % EVTOI 0 % chane (of going in) Corsi
    2. Force as hidh a % of low danger Corsi.

    On our list
    Type 1
    Russell one of 2 d on a elite level of thier own

    Type 2
    Larsso
    Sekera
    Benning

  20. LMHF#1 says:

    Diablo: And now plays in Texas, where they don’t have income tax. Very important point.

    There’s a chart somewhere that sorts out all the different tax structures. Someone probably has a link.

  21. treevojo says:

    fifthcartel: Being critical of suspect moves is part of the fan experience for me. If you want to support any and all moves that’s your call. You can simply not read my posts if they bother you so much.

    They don’t bother me at all.

    Reading the persistently negative posters is part of my enjoyment when coming to Lowetide.

    Can’t be all rainbows and sunshine.

    I also enjoy responding to certain posts and posters with a touch of sarcasm.

    Hopefully that doesn’t bother you.

  22. Chris says:

    Marc Andre Bergeron is apparently still around and was in Columbus’ system. That brings back good/bad memories.

  23. Chris says:

    Scungilli Slushy: He said he didn’t want to play on his Dad’s team, maybe that’s changed.

    KLowe never played in Bakersfield! And I suspect that it depends on his available options.

  24. fifthcartel says:

    treevojo,

    Oh, my mistake! Not at all!

  25. Chamucks says:

    Munny,

    He signed in 20 minutes…. Hello?

  26. Gordies Elbow says:

    LMHF#1: There’s a chart somewhere that sorts out all the different tax structures. Someone probably has a link.

    Gavin Group NHL Tax Comparison Tool

    Looks like more than $400k per year in additional taxes to be in Alberta.

  27. Munny says:

    According to the SN website Ryan Miller has signed with the Donald Ducks for two dollars a year over two years. Which is considerably more than the Non-applicable cap hit they have for most contracts.

  28. LMHF#1 says:

    Gordies Elbow: Gavin Group NHL Tax Comparison Tool

    Looks like more than $400k per year in additional taxes to be in Alberta.

    Sounds about right. Didn’t used to be that way.

  29. Munny says:

    Chamucks,

    At a massive discount with one of the worst teams in the League… who wouldn’t even trade a 7th rounder for him. And he leapt at it.

    I don’t know what his off-ice story is, but when the suitcase is smoking, there’s fire.*

    *(Also applies to automobiles and credit cards)

  30. rickithebear says:

    A test:

    How many corsi
    Howy many were high danger oand low dander

    How many blocks
    How many hd
    How many low danger

    How many misses
    Hd?
    Ld?

    How many shots.
    How many High danger
    And how many low danger.

    What was the total shot density.
    1 for ld shot
    5 for hd shot

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mvhVWpza47k

  31. Ryan says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    The thing with the away numbers for Drai and McDavid

    Leon Draisaitl without Connor McDavid: 3-12-15 1.80 5×5/60 (47.9% Corsi for 5×5)
    Connor McDavid without Leon Draisaitl: 10-19-29 2.72 5×5/60 (52.1% Corsi for 5×5)

    Is that Leon’s number 1.80 EVP/60 falls below first line production, which is 2.00 + EVP/60. Connor’s is still elite at 2.72.

    Connor last season was elite no matter what mook he had to play with, Leon became a second liner without Connor.

    The thing that bothers me in all of this is that Leon has no proven track record of being a top liner on his own. A great playoff run means nothing about being a top level player, see Bollig and Bickell, there is one or two every season, and they often get career killing contracts out of it, crazy SH% the fuel on the fire.

    Great players need to be paid, Leon should take a short bridge and prove himself and then sign a big one. Connor is proven, Leon is unproven, those are the facts.

    For Pete’s sake he isn’t even established as a full time centre yet. His production came with a winger’s responsibilities.

    Well, there’s two different ways to frame Draisatl’s production..

    You can run Wowy numbers without Hall and McDavid for the past two consecutive seasons. The results aren’t pretty.

    Last year he had 1.13 points per hour 5v5 away from Hall albeit in just under 200 minutes.

    Or you could frame the issue that he put up 2.2 point per hour in 2015-16 playing without McDavid. He played mostly with Taylor Hall who’s a first liner and Teddy Purcell who has since fallen out of the NHL.

  32. OmJo says:

    Munny:
    OmJo,

    31 NHL GMs disagree. Just sayin.

    That’s not very nice to Jason Botterill.

  33. Pouzar says:

    Ryan: You can run Wowy numbers without Hall and McDavid

    Just make sure you run the WOWYs for Hall/McDavid as well.

  34. VOR says:

    It occurs to me many Oilers fans may be missing the rather unique opportunity the Oilers have as an organization.

    With Connor, Jesse, and Leon the Oilers have a nucleus of players who will in their prime will make the Oilers possession monsters (think LA in the Cup years or even better). At the same time the Oilers would have the pure skill of Chicago in their best years. That would be an amazing thing to see. Or at least I think so, and am not really sure why fans aren’t understanding how important Leon Draisaitl is to that future.

  35. Chris says:

    Munny:
    Chamucks,

    At a massive discount with one of the worst teams in the League… who wouldn’t even trade a 7th rounder for him.And he leapt at it.

    I don’t know what his off-ice story is, but when the suitcase is smoking, there’s fire.

    Pouliot seems like he is willing to spend a year trying to rebuild his value around the league.

  36. Munny says:

    Chris,

    What choice does he have?

  37. OmJo says:

    Munny:
    Chamucks,

    At a massive discount with one of the worst teams in the League… who wouldn’t even trade a 7th rounder for him.And he leapt at it.

    I don’t know what his off-ice story is, but when the suitcase is smoking, there’s fire.*

    *(Also applies to automobiles and credit cards)

    He’s coming off a horrible season and just got bought out, of course he’ll take a discount. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad player. Besides he was probably overpaid to begin with, and he has 1.3M coming from the Oilers for the next four years anyway.

  38. Richard S.S. says:

    Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg played three fewer games than Leon Draisaitl and scored 3 more Goals and two more Assists. He didn’t have Connor McDavid to play with nor anyone that good. He makes $6.125 Million a year.

    Leon had 13 games in which he performed as everyone thought he could. Connor McDavid gets ANTHING HE WANTS. Leon Draisaitl must show me he’s worth more than Mark Scheifele before he gets paid more.

  39. Chris says:

    Munny,

    I don’t think he has one, but he clearly recognized his position and welcomed the opportunity. I have a hard time faulting someone for acting rationally in their situation.

  40. Munny says:

    OmJo,

    Lol… well, isn’t he one of the 31?

  41. Munny says:

    Chris:
    Munny,

    I don’t think he has one, but he clearly recognized his position and welcomed the opportunity. I have a hard time faulting someone for acting rationally in their situation.

    Was I laying some kind of fault on Pouliot for signing today? Not sure what you’re referring to. I’m just pointing out that signing in 20 minutes for a massive discount is not a sign of a commodity in massive demand, contrary to the OP’s point.

  42. Pouzar says:

    Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun 1m1 minute ago
    More
    one year, $1 M

    Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun 22s23 seconds ago
    More
    For Scott Hartnell in Nashville

  43. OmJo says:

    Munny:
    OmJo,

    Lol… well, isn’t he one of the 31?

    Lol no he’s the Sabres GM.

  44. Andy Dufresne says:

    OmJo:
    Benoit Pouliot is a good NHL LW.

    Lots of people on this board felt/feel that Pouliot is a value at 2.5 million (myself inlcuded) . Many felt Chia should have been able to move the contract with 1.5 to 2 million retained.

    Today we learned his value to the GMs of the league. 1.15 million for one year.

    What we could have deduced before todays signing was that Pouliots value was less than the cost of buying him out. Todays deal proves that. Chia would have had to retain approx 2.85 million per year for two years to trade him. (unless he took back another bad contract)

  45. Ryan says:

    VOR:
    It occurs to me many Oilers fans may be missing the rather unique opportunity the Oilers have as an organization.

    With Connor, Jesse, and Leon the Oilers have a nucleus of players who will in their prime will make the Oilers possession monsters (think LA in the Cup years or even better). At the same time the Oilers would have the pure skill of Chicago in their best years. That would be an amazing thing to see. Or at least I think so, and am not really sure why fans aren’t understanding how important Leon Draisaitl is to that future.

    I don’t think anyone here has a problem with Draisatl at all.

    I presume that we’re collectively just hoping that he gets signed to the best possible contract for the Oilers.

  46. Chris says:

    Hartnell is the kind of deal we need to sign. Anyone have an opinion on whether Scotty Upshaw would be a fit?

  47. Dominoiler says:

    McSorley33:
    Chris,

    Makes 1.25 million -less-than RNH

    Scores Similar.

    Wins faceoffs

    240 pounds.

  48. godot10 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg played three fewer games than Leon Draisaitl and scored 3 more Goals and two more Assists.He didn’t have Connor McDavid to play with nor anyone that good.He makes $6.125 Million a year.

    Leon had 13 games in which he performed as everyone thought he could.Connor McDavid gets ANTHING HE WANTS.Leon Draisaitl must show me he’s worth more than Mark Scheifele before he gets paid more.

    Scheifele signed his contract before he put up those numbers. He got $6 million something for about 60 points which was what Draisaitl had the year before. Scheifle would be an $8 million dollar player if he signed this summer.

  49. Chris says:

    Martin Hanzel always brings this scene to mind for me

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4UFQWKjy_I

  50. Dominoiler says:

    Chris,

    Thanks, enjoyed that..

  51. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scheifele’s on a good contract. Could turn out to be a value contract.

    Just a personal opinion thing….but I like Drai better than Scheifle. With or without data.

    Maybe Im just to nervous about it as a result of having very little insight/insider information to go on, but given whats floating in ether (9 million, offer sheets etc), I take Draisaitl a 7.5 x 5 without hesitation. Preferably without NMC/NTC ( I guess his agents strategy of leaking trade and offer sheet rumours is working on me)

    Chia has better pervue/insight so he may be able to negotiate as you hope.

    But if they announce Conner at 13.25 x 8 and Leon at 7.5 x 5 I am massively releived.

    i think the offer sheet if it comes will come from San Jose and that if they resign Joe and Patrick then no offer sheet. So hoping Joe and Patrick re-up today or soon.

    Richard S.S.:
    Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg played three fewer games than Leon Draisaitl and scored 3 more Goals and two more Assists.He didn’t have Connor McDavid to play with nor anyone that good.He makes $6.125 Million a year.

    Leon had 13 games in which he performed as everyone thought he could.Connor McDavid gets ANTHING HE WANTS.Leon Draisaitl must show me he’s worth more than Mark Scheifele before he gets paid more.

  52. VOR says:

    Ryan,

    All due respect I think some people have a very big problem with his “rumored” salary ask.

  53. HT Joe says:

    Richard S.S.: Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg played three fewer games than Leon Draisaitl and scored 3 more Goals and two more Assists. He didn’t have Connor McDavid to play with nor anyone that good. He makes $6.125 Million a year.

    Well, if we’re going to point to Scheifele as a comparable, it will unfortunately be really easy for the Draisatl camp to point squarely at RNH and say “Leon’s way better than this guy, who gets $6M per year”.

    Regular Season:
    43 points vs. 77 points

    Playoff Points (13 games each):
    4 points vs. 16 points

    (I understand that shooting percentages and useage makes a big difference, but I am trying to say that Draisatl’s agent could easily make this comparison).

  54. Richard S.S. says:

    godot10: Scheifele signed his contract before he put up those numbers.He got $6 million something for about 60 points which was what Draisaitl had the year before.Scheifle would be an $8 million dollar player if he signed this summer.

    Scheifele was their best player and got just 6.125. His track record is better than Leon’s. Edmonton was more desperate at trying to force Leon into the lineup., than Winnipeg was with Mark.

  55. Ryan says:

    VOR:
    Ryan,

    All due respect I think some people have a very big problem with his “rumored” salary ask.

    How much is it? I haven’t heard a number.

  56. Richard S.S. says:

    After 12 Noon, no news on The McDavid Contract yet. A contract that’s been in the works for more than a month. Is there a problem?

  57. Richard S.S. says:

    Possibly $9.0 x 8 Years from Leon’s Camp.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    After 12 Noon, no news on The McDavid Contract yet.A contract that’s been in the works for more than a month.Is there a problem?

    I would think they will make such announcement via a press conference and, with all due respect to Connor, there are other things going on today for Chia to stop for a press conference.

    I expect the announcement on Tuesday.

  59. Chris says:

    Shattenkirk to the Rangers for 6.65 x 5. Huge money for a PP quarterback who isn’t so good at defense.

  60. Lucinius says:

    Man, there’s no way I’d pay that for Shattenkirk. No way in hell. Guy can produce but I like my D to know how to, well, D.

  61. VOR says:

    Ryan,

    Ryan Rishaug started the rumors about Leon by “speculating” that the ask was in the double digits ($10 Million or more). Jason Gregor said he thought more like $9.5 Million. Rishaug tried to back it up saying nobody had told him $10,000,000+ but by then the number was out there. It has now taken on a life of its own. As has the rumor of an offer sheet. A rumor that Chiarelli felt compelled to respond to and say he’d match.

    My original point was that we seem to have lost sight of what might be the Oilers brilliant future in our rush to respond to a “rumored” number. A lot of posters have devoted energy here to prove how these numbers are absurd.

  62. GBandQ says:

    Vrbata to Florida. 1 year. Sigh.

  63. oilfan17 says:

    Richard S.S.: Scheifele was their best player and got just 6.125.His track record is better than Leon’s.

    Scheifele vs Leon is a prime example of why analytics never tell the whole story. They don’t provide context.

    Scheifele played last season as IC with the best wingers including Laine.

    Leon without McDavid was 3C with a revolving door of bottom six wingers and AHLers. Hard to develop chemistry that way.

    When he was moved to McDavid’s line in January, it was because McDAVID was in a scoring slump, and the two of them lit it up from there.

    Who else could read McDavid that welll? Who else could work a 3 on 3 OT like those two? THe list goes on,

    RNH was 2C, so they were able to keep Leon and McDavid together as the team went for the Pacific Div lead, and McD went for the Art Ross.

    The playoffs did not create a ‘monster’ out of Leon. They showed what he can do on his own. Give him comparable linemates and situation in the regular season and he will be just fine.

    But if you’re going to keep RNH at 2C, that changes things too.

  64. Gerta Rauss says:

    Richard S.S.:
    After 12 Noon, no news on The McDavid Contract yet.A contract that’s been in the works for more than a month.Is there a problem?

    Mcdavid’s agent told USA today no deal this weekend

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/columnist/allen/2017/06/30/connor-mcdavid-extension-oilers-star-win-all/443756001/

  65. Gerta Rauss says:

    Chris:
    Shattenkirk to the Rangers for 6.65 x 5. Huge money for a PP quarterback who isn’t so good at defense.

    TSN is saying 4 year term…$6.65 x 4

  66. rickithebear says:

    LMHF#1: Sounds about right. Didn’t used to be that way.

    Once harper caved to eastern mfg based conservatives.
    Then signed the coal agreement.

    I switched to modelling of coal life expectancy.

    Knew we were f…….

    When sundance (trans alta) got fined 52 million per for the 2 times they pulled off the pool market supply.

    Yet the PC did not fine thier oil buddies wind power sites 52 M for pulling off when wind did not blow.
    Cost this province and tax payers billions and billions of dollars.

    Then notley the liberal with ties to Ont mfg friends
    Involved in the 6 major solar and wind mfg plants switched to renewables. Pad her friends pockets.

    Removal of the celanese plant in edm pulled a major % of canadian natural gas demand.
    Flattening the peak from 10 to 5 per and base of 2.5
    Making coal viable in 50 % of modelling.

    The fattening of gas to a peak of 4 pver ladt 18 months makes coal a question mark.

    Thier are 3 factors that dictate the future.

    1. Ppa holder
    2. Capicaty market base price
    3. If the Conservatives (Not the wild rose: cancel the carbon tax and letting the feds swoop in at twice the rate WTF) use Not withstanding to set the carbon tax at 1-5 cents per.
    Problem is they cannot be trusted to do what is correct or eqitable per oil friend renewables.

  67. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    rickithebear,

    I try to read and interpret your posts, but they’re so frequently mangled and random that it’s akin to catching half a conversation on the subway. There’s something in there that’s interesting, but I can’t overcome the background noise to catch the point.

  68. rickithebear says:

    Pouzar: Just make sure you run the WOWYs for Hall/McDavid as well.

    I did and posted it days ago.

  69. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    It occurs to me many Oilers fans may be missing the rather unique opportunity the Oilers have as an organization.

    With Connor, Jesse, and Leon the Oilers have a nucleus of players who will in their prime will make the Oilers possession monsters (think LA in the Cup years or even better). At the same time the Oilers would have the pure skill of Chicago in their best years. That would be an amazing thing to see. Or at least I think so, and am not really sure why fans aren’t understanding how important Leon Draisaitl is to that future.

    It’s his lack of a clear track record without elite players. As Ryan said the issue can be framed in different ways, however to me it’s clear he is a highly skilled player and there are a lot of unanswered questions about whether he can sustain last seasons totals on his own, including his 16.9 SH% which will not be his average unless he’s one of the best in history. I’m not betting on that.

    Which is why Mr Eberle is no longer an Oiler owing to a contract that ignored his luck that contract season and lack of a mature game that if it came was last gasp. Drai also has to add defensively if he goes to centre, and that usually also affects scoring.

  70. Lucinius says:

    Kevin Kurz‏Verified account @KKurzNBCS 8s8 seconds ago
    More
    Joe Thornton has re-signed with the #SJSharks on a one-year deal, per a source

    Re-tweeted by Dreger.

  71. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Chris:
    Shattenkirk to the Rangers for 6.65 x 5. Huge money for a PP quarterback who isn’t so good at defense.

    I think you are underrating Shattenkirk. He is more than just a PP QB and not that bad at D. Much better than Barrie, for example.

  72. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    It’s hard to make the argument that the Oilers are going to be better year on year.

    I would have for sure signed Oesterle for 100k more than Chicago gave him. Pitlick, too for enough extra to match the Dallas tax advantage. 1.15m X 3?

    This off-season and trade deadline so far:
    Out:
    Eberle (1Rw)
    Reinhart (6D)
    Oesterle (7D)
    Davidson (5D)
    Pouliot (2Lw)
    Pitlick (4RW)

    In:
    Strome (2Rw)
    Rattie (4Rw)
    Cap space

    I’m not ready to declare the summer over and call it a disaster yet but the ELC clock on McDavid is ticking and if this is what they are doing to “improve” then we are in for a disappointment this winter.

    I was very wary of having to wind up paying for Leon’s production as McDavid’s wing all spring and harped many time since February or March that for the long-term the Oilers needed to see him drive his own line at 2C for a sustained period. Yes, he had some good games at 2C in the playoffs away from McDavid but the sample size was tiny and he had an unsustainable shooting percentage in the playoffs.

    Now because the Oilers have also decided to reset the salary pyramid on the team with McDavid at a rumoured 13+ they have painted themselves into a corner.

    Remember when no one was going to get paid more than Hall?

    Well, if McDavid is worth 13.25 I don’t blame the Drai camp one bit for asking for 9+. They should ask for 10. Fuck it. Why not.

    As for doing the team a solid why should he. How MacT handled his rookie season was his own fucking fault. We all were livid about slotting him in at 2C for no reason and burning a year of the ELC. Why should Leon do a favour for a guy who fucked up and is no longer the boss? Although some people said “it doesn’t matter, we have the cap space.”

    Well, it always matters. Because you wind up painting yourself into a corner. Oilers’ depth has been depleted severely and you can’t make any sort of argument that the new parts coming in are better than the old parts.

    I’m not yet ready to call this summer a disaster but there are storm clouds building at the moment. Is that fair?

    And I’m not crying wolf here. These concerns have been around for a while and they are sort of playing out.

    If Chia is as good a GM as everyone claims he has a plan and will improve this team and not waste McDavid’s last cheap year. Right now it looks like he is just trying to bail cap money off the boat before it is so bogged down a cannon blows a hole in it via an offersheet on Leon.

    We wait.

  73. Jaxon says:

    UFA RHD still available:
    – Cody Franson is still out there. Doubt they can afford him.
    – Darren Dietz (.88 ES Pri. Pts/60 in AHL), 6’1″, 213lbs, will be 24 at start of the season. from Medicine Hat. If you translate that using NHLE numbers (*.47 for AHL), you get .4136 ES Pri.Pts/60, which is right around Michael Stone (.4076) and Cody Franson (.387). Might be a good cheap pickup who can help and grow.
    – Nick Ebert (.75 ES Pri. Pts/60 in AHL), 6’0″, 205lbs, will be 23 at start of the season.
    – Michael Paliotta (.62 ES Pri. Pts/60 in AHL), 6’4″, 212lbs, will be 24 at start of the season.

    ELC RHD still available:
    – Aaron Irving (1.09 ES Pri. Pts/60 in WHL), 6’1″, 197lbs, will be 21 at start of the season. from Edmonton. Bear scored at a very close 1.11 ES Pri.Pts./60.
    – Clayton Kirchenko (0.96 ES Pri. Pts/60 in WHL), 6’1″, 195lbs, will be 21 at start of the season. from Edmonton.

  74. Jaxon says:

    Darren Dietz (from Hockeys Future):
    “Dietz loves to play on the rush and is excellent in transition. Known as a puck-moving defenceman, he uses elusive speed and a high hockey IQ to find end-to-end opportunities and make life difficult for opposing wingers. He possesses a great first pass and also has a decent shot from the point. He is no slouch in his own end, using his stick to get into passing lanes and his frame to separate opposing players from the puck during battles down low and against the boards. He will need to show more consistency at the AHL level when it comes to putting up points if he is to figure into the Canadiens main roster plans.
    Read more at http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/darren_dietz/#JRjp0HDaMoP7Ovdd.99

    Sounds like a good fit.

  75. Jaxon says:

    I think Eric Gudbranson represents a unique opportunity at some point in the next year. Does anyone have an opinion on what his next long term contract will look like? He re-signed with Vancouver on a 1 year 3.5M contract. I think that may say he wants out, if he doesn’t think Vancouver will be a contender. So does that 3.5M represent what a high number becuase it was on such a short contract? Or a low number for such a short contract? If he is willing to re-sign next summer in the same range long term 3.5M to 4.0M x 6 or 7, he would represent fantastic value in my opinion. Depending on Vancouver’s season, he may also be available as a playoff rental for a 3rd round pick or something in the nature. If Edmonton can get a solid player like him under 4.0M, they need to do it as they will be up against the cap for a few years.

    In his 31 games last season, his ES Pri.Pts/60 was .7161, which puts him just behind Trouba, and Gudas, and just ahead of Spurgeon, Faulk, Schultz, Klingberg, and Savard. He played 17.33 ES Minutes per game, which was 54th in the NHL, meaning he was playing top pair against toughest competition. He’d be a great 2nd pair RHD with Nurse or Russell (or Sekera, when he gets back).

  76. who says:

    GMB3: Can someone please point me to the evidence that Leon Draisaitl is a proven #1 C? Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Logic and reason plz

    I think my post had plenty of logic and reason. I’ve watched the man play for the last two years and the fact that Chia is willing to match any offer sheet should tell you all you need to know about his value.
    Are you saying that Drai is not a first line center at the nhl level, and if so, why not? Cause I could name 10 or more teams that would slot him there immediately.

  77. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Anyone catch the Free Agency press conference on YouTube?

    ChiaPete says there are a total of 7 players signed, and makes a point of characterizing them as depth signings.

    EDIT: Link
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_UiWFD9juc

  78. Dominoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Good points, hard to argue with that post..

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