MAKING BETTS

Dickie Betts wrote “Jessica” and that’s a lifetime. Have you heard it? The Allman Brothers went dual everything—guitars, drums—and their sound echoes in my brain everyday. If you have an hour, listen to Jessica, Midnight Rider, Melissa, Blue Sky, Statesboro Blues, Soul Shine, Whipping Post. That’s probably more than an hour but what the hell. Like The Band and The Stones, there is a unique feel to the Allman Brothers Band, something in their sound you cannot find anywhere else. I recommend them every day for the rest of your life and then whatever comes after.

MAKING BETTS

I think Peter Chiarelli and the Oilers management had to make a decision somewhere about Connor McDavid’s contract. Did they want to go five years and keep it lower (say $10.5 million) or go long and deep? Based on reports, long and deep it is and I will tell you that option pleases me. Connor McDavid is absolutely the best thing that is going to happen to the Oilers this century, might as well get the first 11 years of his career, and then maybe tack on another 11 seasons.

It does come at a cost (but a worthwhile one). This summer, it was Jordan Eberle for Ryan Strome and next summer it is going to be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for Sam Bennett. Hehe. Chiarelli seems to have decided (we don’t know what is going to happen although it doesn’t sound earth shattering) to thrust several young and inexpensive options into feature roles. I do not (and have said so) believe this is necessary, but will admit that it is hard to wheel until the Leon Draisaitl contract fracture has been resolved. Here are the youngsters who will be relied on heavily this summer.

  1. Laurent Brossoit, backup goalie. I think this is a reasonable bet, Edmonton has developed him in the minors and LB will be waiver eligible in the fall. At some point, when you are developing talent, you have to give a man his chance to stand and deliver. Lots of pressure on him but if he performs well it’s one more area that is no longer a problem.
  2. Matt Benning, 2RHD. Every metric I’ve seen had him performing at a high level. He was an older rookie, which may mean he will be able to repeat his strong debut season. Ideally you’d have a more seasoned player to step into the Andrej Sekera role, but Benning is the one who will move up in my opinion. Corsi for 5×5 %: 52.1; Corsi Rel 5×5 %: 2.8; DFF Elite 5×5 %: 50.2; DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: +2.8 (31 percent of TOI v. elites). It’s all terrific. The truth is I do believe Benning is a reasonable bet to cover off the need until Sekera returns.
  3. Mark Fayne, 3RD. People ask me all the time about why I stick up for Pouliot and Fayne. The answer is simple: No one has given me a good reason to abandon them. I understand Todd McLellan likes more mobile defenders and that Fayne doesn’t bring any offense, but he is an actual NHL player and can fill a role. You would want a more mobile and offensive bet, and I have suggested Cody Franson. That understood, I’m fine with this bet.
  4. Ryan Strome, 3C. He’ll also play RW as Leon Draisaitl’s Mirror Man but it sounds like his overall responsibility includes a lot of time at center. I liked his skill on draft day and he scored 50 points three years ago. Recent history has been less impressive and this is a risk that could have major negative impact if it goes sideways. I understand the bet and realize the cap crunch, but do believe the Oilers are pretty exposed here. A Brandon Pirri signing would make me feel more comfortable.
  5. Drake Caggiula, 3L. I would have preferred one more year from Pouliot before handing the keys to Caggiula, but my argument revolves around offense and BP didn’t give me much to argue for with his year. Caggiula can wheel and has the Chiarelli gumption, so if he can slide 12-15 goals into the net then that should be good enough. I’m not so much against a bet on a young winger as against so many bets on a young winger.
  6. Jujhar Khaira, 4L. Absolutely time to give him a full 500-at bats and I’m glad for it. One area the Oilers may be exposed is penalty kill. I would be very happy to see him get PK time in pre-season just to see if he has the acumen. Other than that, I believe it is time.
  7. Jesse Puljujarvi, 2R. This is too early in my opinion, especially considering how he ended things a year ago. JP began the campaign confident but losing playing time had impact and I’m not sure he ever recovered. If they are going to do this, plenty of PP time and feature time or a soft minutes line are badly needed.
  8. Anton Slepyshev, 3R. He does have some cover in Zack Kassian and did play so well down the stretch and in the playoffs. I am less worried about the Russian than I am about Caggiula or Puljujarvi. I think this guy might score 20 under the right circumstances.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

44 Responses to "MAKING BETTS"

  1. LMHF#1 says:

    I’m in at 25G and 2RW for Slepyshev.

    Love the player but sure wish this wasn’t the plan.

    Having him score 15 at 3/4 then burn the playoffs down would have been something to see.

  2. Cahoon says:

    Great post as always LT. I think just based on TMacs history you have Gryba and Fayne in each other’s roles. I think Gryba will be 3rd and Fayne will be 7d

  3. Lowetide says:

    Cahoon:
    Great post as always LT. I think just based on TMacs history you have Gryba and Fayne in each other’s roles. I think Gryba will be 3rd and Fayne will be 7d

    I am confident Fayne wins the job before opening night.

  4. jtblack says:

    Kuzy $7.5 per Leon is gonna get Paid!!

  5. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great Post LT: I’ve got Jessica on in the background: they just don’t make music like this today: what, 8 minutes of sound, no vocals: I will listen as I have a cigar at the deck at cottage to all these

    – The “bets” you have listed: compare/contrast to a few years ago: all these bets (except pool-party), are lower entries: they are all “blocked” by better more established D, C or W: love it

    – Loved that guitar solo on Jessica too: wow!

  6. godot10 says:

    There really is no point going short term now with Draisaitl, considering Kuznetzov’s deal. 8 x $9 million. Just do it.

    As soon as $13 million leaked, salaries reset….(plus with Russell’s and Lucic’s contracts)…$7 million something was a non-starter.

    Pay it. Get certainty. And then one can go forward with clarity. The bet on Draisaitl is a whole lot safer bet than the bets that were made on Lucic and Russell.

  7. Richard S.S. says:

    Laurent Brossoit, backup goalie : A very good choice for the position.
    Matt Benning, 2RHD : He might even belong here. When Sekera return who goes down?
    Mark Fayne, 3RD : Good enough choice for what they need.
    Ryan Strome, 3C : More like 1RW/2RW/2C. I think he can be that good.
    Drake Caggiula, 3L :Limits disappear with experience.
    Jujhar Khaira, 4L : Ultimately 3LW/4LW/3C/4C is possible.
    Jesse Puljujarvi, 2R. : All in a person’s mind set what the NHL is, can he adjust?
    Anton Slepyshev, 3R.: He’ll get better, up and down the lineup as needed.

    Isn’t this year an audition for who stays next year?

  8. treevojo says:

    Lowetide,

    LMHF#1,

    I love the positivity on Canada day weekend.

    Now where is Cassandra?

  9. treevojo says:

    Is it too hard to believe Connor at 8 years for 97 mil and Leon at 8 years for 63 mil.

    20 mil on the cap per year.

    Make it happen Chia.

  10. leadfarmer says:

    Looks like Kuznetsov got Drais contract

  11. godot10 says:

    The medium term core…at the moment, when McDavid and Draisaitl sign, based on contracts…

    McDavid, Draisaitl, Lucic, Klefbom, Sekera, Larsson, Russell, Talbot….some good, some bad there.
    ($13.25, $9) $22.25 on elite F, $17.83 on the D, $4.17 G
    = $44.25 on 7 players.
    = $30 million plus cap increases (less one cap increase dedicated to re-signing Talbot) for 16 players over the next four years.

    Nugent-Hopkins is a dead man walking (as an Oiler). Better to trade him sooner than later for both sides sake.

  12. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    Kuzy $7.5 per Leon is gonna get Paid!!

    15 players signed and 4.6M in cap space. I’m not following what they are doing.

  13. leadfarmer says:

    I like the Slepyshev bet and the Benning bet the most. I think he will need one more year of seasoning and then Slepyshev will become the reincarnation of the mythical Pisani creature the prophets from years past spoke of. His reappearance will be followed by visions of the Balance images

  14. jtblack says:

    Oilers could have upped Leon last yr right? Same as they are doing with Connor. But they wanted Leon to “show me”. He did and now they pay.

    Seems like Connors contract has already affected all others.

    Hope Connors deal looks like Croz deal in 4 or 5 years!

  15. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack,

    Well that’s what happens when you put young players on Mcdavids wing on a contract year.

  16. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli Slushy: 15 players signed and 4.6M in cap space. I’m not following what they are doing.

    They’re following all star voting and playing Ovechkin on both wings on the top line

  17. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy: 15 players signed and 4.6M in cap space. I’m not following what they are doing.

    Trading Ovi

  18. Pescador says:

    treevojo:
    Is it too hard to believe Connor at 8 years for 97 mil and Leon at 8 years for 63 mil.

    20 mil on the cap per year.

    Make it happen Chia.

    Prolly what the Oilers were offering, not going to get it done.
    Facking agents

  19. treevojo says:

    Kuznetsov 0.7 pts per game= 7.8 mil

    Draisaitl 0.72 pts per game = 7.875 mil

    Now we just need Connor to do his buddy a solid and take 97.

    I like everything to be symmetrical.

  20. Westchester Oil says:

    Scungilli Slushy: 15 players signed and 4.6M in cap space. I’m not following what they are doing.

    They just dumped Johansson off to the Devils for a couple picks.

  21. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If Puljujaarvi doesn’t speak english by now I’d trade him because something is wrong with his noggin, he’s been over here for a good while now.

    ——-

    When Jari Kurri was in his rookie season (he would have been 20) he was hired as a spokesperson for (I think it was) Shipley Photo. He was asked to come into CFRN Radio to record a 30-second script. I was the “voice” reading the nuts and bolts (name, address, sell line) and Jari was the one reading the bulk of the copy (say 20 seconds).

    We tried for an hour, mostly because he was trying so hard and we instantly liked him and wanted him to succeed. When we were done, I had read 27 seconds and he tagged it with “tell them Jari sent you.”

    I am extremely happy Glen Sather didn’t trade Kurri, suspect you will one day feel the same about Puljujarvi.

    ————–

    Seems some are a bit sensitive this weekend. Apologies.

  22. Mr. D. says:

    Is there a betting site? I’ll take you up for a thousand that you are wrong.

    Lowetide: I am confident Fayne wins the job before opening night.

  23. treevojo says:

    Westchester Oil:

    I think this was the last year we see Washington winning the presidents trophy for awhile.

    The power is shifting throughout the league.

  24. treevojo says:

    Power

    West
    Edmonton
    Nashville
    Anaheim
    Calgary
    Dallas
    Minnesota

    East
    Pittsburgh
    Tampa bay
    Columbus
    Ottawa
    Carolina
    NYR

  25. Ducey says:

    treevojo:
    Kuznetsov 0.7 pts per game= 7.8 mil

    Draisaitl 0.72 pts per game = 7.875 mil

    Now we just need Connor to do his buddy a solid and take 97.

    I like everything to be symmetrical.

    Remember when RFAs would not get the same as UFAs?

    Lockout here we come.

  26. Woogie63 says:

    If you have Apple Music, search best of Allman Brothers, you will instantly have a better night!

  27. treevojo says:

    Ducey: Remember when RFAs would not get the same as UFAs?

    Lockout here we come.

    I think it was coming regardless.

    The second the players agreed to a hard cap was the second that they gave up all leverage going forward.

    As painful as it was back then they should have listened to Bob With regards to future cbas.

  28. Westchester Oil says:

    I can”t believe how much Jumbo Joe (1x$8 mln) and Marleau are getting (3x$6.25 mln). Maybe Jagr is thinking ‘I’m less than a decade older than these guys, I should be getting $5 mln.

    Ron Hainsey is another old player getting a relatively outsized contract.

  29. jtblack says:

    treevojo,

    +1.

    Agreed. The tides are shifting.

  30. Thinker says:

    More than 1 million per goal he scored last year. WOW.

  31. treevojo says:

    In saying that it is pretty hard to ask someone to sacrifice themselves for somebody else’s future.

    The exact reason the owners will always have the hammer.

  32. treevojo says:

    I say this as a former VP of a union which convinced my coworkers to agree to a contract that gave the owners every cutback they were asking for only to have them shutdown the mill a month later for good.

  33. ashley says:

    treevojo:
    Power

    West
    Edmonton
    Nashville
    Anaheim
    Calgary
    Dallas
    Minnesota

    East
    Pittsburgh
    Tampa bay
    Columbus
    Ottawa
    Carolina
    NYR

    Things don’t change that fast.

    I think SJS will still be a class act. SJS and ANA will be the teams to beat for us.

    NSH will struggle early and be a bubble team for a playoff spot.

    MIN could win the president’s trophy.

    WSH will still be awesome.

    NYR and PIT will be near the top of the class.

    CAR will be good.

    OTT will miss the playoffs.

    CGY will miss the playoffs.

    TOR will be close, but probably miss.

  34. ashley says:

    That’s an impressive contract for Kuznetsov. Chia is getting painted into a corner. The best play at this point is to wait. Let things settle down and see if he can get Drai’s camp to reduce their demands. We may have to start the season without him.

  35. speeds says:

    godot10:
    There really is no point going short term now with Draisaitl, considering Kuznetzov’s deal.8 x $9 million.Just do it.

    As soon as $13 million leaked, salaries reset….(plus with Russell’s and Lucic’s contracts)…$7 million something was a non-starter.

    Pay it.Get certainty. And then one can go forward with clarity. The bet on Draisaitl is a whole lot safer bet than the bets that were made on Lucic and Russell.

    There’s more than enough reason to at least look at going short term with Draisaitl.

    (1) Hard to know exactly what he is at C, without McDavid

    (2) The rumored ask is above any comparables.

    If he can’t get an offer sheet, and won’t sign for less than some of the rumors long term, makes sense to me to, again, at least look at a bridge.

  36. treevojo says:

    ashley: Things don’t change that fast.

    I think SJS will still be a class act.SJS and ANA will be the teams to beat for us.

    NSH will struggle early and be a bubble team for a playoff spot.

    MIN could win the president’s trophy.

    WSH will still be awesome.

    NYR and PIT will be near the top of the class.

    CAR will be good.

    OTT will miss the playoffs.

    CGY will miss the playoffs.

    TOR will be close, but probably miss.

    Will have to see how the rest of the offseason shakes out but I would be willing to bet some friendly wagers on some of your thoughts.

  37. russ99 says:

    Puljujarvi is not a big risk. Worst case his skills on the wall, on the cycle and without the puck at 19 years old are at an NHL average level with room for improvement.

    The offense is the only question. I hope he did well enough in Bakersfield the last couple of months last season where he starts to find his feet offensively at the NHL level.

  38. Clarkenstein says:

    I like 7 of those 8 players to step it up this year. Not so sure about Fayne but it would be a very pleasant surprise. I think Chia wants to see how these 8 players do for one more year then make decisions. I truly don’t believe he expects to bring Stanley home this year with this lineup but every playoff round they win adds more experience… for the following year. In the following year he will make a more concerted effort to fill some holes with a better free agent class… not with big names obviously cause he won’t have a lot of cap… but with some role players. In 2018/19 he will release the hounds and will try to win the Cup for the foreseeable future. I think that’s his plan. I hope that’s his plan.

  39. Pescador says:

    Clarkenstein,

    I disagree entirely, not only will there be zero cap room to sign new players the Oilers but will need to
    offload salary & be unable to sign all of their own RFA’s.
    All of the moves that Championship teams are forced to make without any annoying championships.
    Suffice to say I’m feeling rather pessimistic at the moment

  40. Trevor457 says:

    russ99,

    I really think JP needs to score greater than a ppg in the AHL before he comes to the NHL. The argument is that he did good for his age in the AHL. Well, if he is too young to score at an elite level in the AHL, why do we think he can score at an elive level in the NHL?

  41. Pescador says:

    Trevor457:
    russ99,

    I really think JP needs to score greater than a ppg in the AHL before he comes to the NHL.The argument is that he did good for his age in the AHL.Well, if he is too young to score at an elite level in the AHL, why do we think he can score at an elive level in the NHL?

    x2,
    If ever there was a prospect that needed to be brought along slowly it’s this boy. 19 & still figuring out his body, & North America

  42. Rondo says:

    A steal
    Marcus Johannessen

    Frank Seravalli‏Verified account @frank_seravalli 2h2 hours ago
    More
    Replying to @frank_seravalli
    Still shocked at this price. MJ90 had 58 pts last season (24 G). I know #Caps are in a cap bind, and no one throws life rafts, but wow.

  43. treevojo says:

    Rondo:
    A steal
    Marcus Johannessen

    Frank Seravalli‏Verified account @frank_seravalli2h2 hours ago
    More
    Replying to @frank_seravalli
    Still shocked at this price. MJ90 had 58 pts last season (24 G). I know #Caps are in a cap bind, and no one throws life rafts, but wow.

    Maybe they wanted to send him to the one team in the east that had no chance of competing with them this year?

  44. Alsker says:

    Off topic…Hayley Wickenheiser as guest coach @ Oil development camp is win/win for the org. Not only does she have more international ( big game) exp. then the all the prospects combined and someone who could have played in our top 6(if not first line)over the last decade, she’s also a mother figure that all of us could relate to at the age of the prospects attending camp. Strong, tough but approachable Tmac hit a homerun asking Hayley to attend. Hoping they find her a home either in Bakersfield or within player development.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca