WHO’S NEXT?

The Edmonton Oilers entered free agency with a lot of issues. The two main jobs of summer—signing Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl—remained undun. Therefore it was no surprise that the Oilers didn’t make a major investment on Day One of free agency. Prices were high, as expected, there are still names available—and the Oilers need help in at least two areas.

FREE AGENT LIST

  1. R Radim Vrbata (81gp, 20-35-55). Scorer.
  2. RD Christian Folin (51gp, 2-6-8). Young, available, skilled.
  3. RD Cody Franson (68GP, 3-16-19). One-year deal? I would do it.
  4. C-L Brandon Pirri  (60gp, 8-10-18). Low-cost scorer.
  5. LC Dominic Moore  (82gp, 11-14-25). PK and FO option.
  6. R P-A Parenteau  (67gp, 13-15-28). Can still score.
  7. LD Yohann Auvitu (25gp, 2-2-4). He looks like a player.
  8. LC Mikhail Grigorenko (75gp, 10-13-23)Good faceoff man, young, had utility.
  9. R Alex Chiasson  (81gp, 12-12-24). Has some value.
  10. R Ty Rattie (9gp, 0-2-2). Oilers signed him to a two-way deal. 

Have to sign McDavid and Draisaitl, so even this humble list of free agents may be off the board by the time Peter Chiarelli can go shopping with confidence.

50-MAN LIST (46+2SR)

  • G Cam Talbot. Martin Jones contract signed yesterday may inform his next deal.
  • G Laurent Brossoit. Backup job is his alone.
  • G Nick Ellis. Splendid first year pro, on par with Brossoit if he can sustain it.
  • G Edward Pasquale. At the very least a capable AHL starter.
  • G Shane Starrett. Another college goalie with strong resume. First pro season coming up.
  • G Dylan Wells. Slide rule, he’ll spend one more year in junior.

Five pro goalies means a full deck for the coming season. Talbot will be counted on for 60+ games but perhaps more important Laurent Brossoit will need to deliver 20 points or more from his 20 games in 2017-18. Nick Ellis is my bet for first callup, perhaps Pasquale sees his first NHL action. In what is going to be a theme on this roster, the Oilers are going to give inexperienced hands a chance in an important role. It is Laurent Brossoit’s time to establish himself as a big league backup.

  • LD Oscar Klefbom. The club will need even more from him. 25 minutes?
  • RD Adam Larsson. Evens and PK, Larsson will be a major player.
  • LD Andrej Sekera. His injury casts a shadow over the first 40-50 games.
  • LD Kris Russell. He will play a major role on the team, may lead in TOI.
  • RD Matt Benning. May end up around 22 minutes a night and add PP time.
  • LD Darnell Nurse. If he can take a step forward, Oilers may muddle through.
  • RD Mark Fayne. If I didn’t know better, I’d say the Oilers made room for him.
  • RD Eric Gryba. He is a solid 7D, but regular duty as 6D will expose him.
  • LD Ryan Stanton. Shutdown type, he is in the mix for NHL playing time.
  • LD Dillon Simpson. He is in a callup spot currently. Important for Bakersfield.
  • LD Keegan Lowe. Takes on the David Musil role.
  • LD Ziyat Paigin. Wingspan of a Condor. We may see him in 2017-18.
  • LD Ben Betker. Big man should get a full AHL season.
  • RD Ethan Bear. A player to watch in Bakersfield, could get NHL cup of coffee.
  • LD Caleb Jones. Fastest and most mobile of the new pro defensemen.
  • RD Ryan Mantha. Big man, big shot, good speed. Duplicates Bear’s skill set.
  • LD William Lagesson. He’ll spend the year in SHL shutting down Swedish forwards.

There are 18 names, but Andrej Sekera is on LTIR and William Lagesson will be in Europe. If Sekera was healthy, I’d be defending this group as capable. We are looking at 40-60 games without him at 100 percent. Maybe more. I am onside with Mark Fayne as an NHL defender and that may well be the plan. I am more convinced of it with the signing of Stanton, who would be the obvious 8D down on the farm awaiting a recall. As of now, opening night may be Klefbom-Larsson; Russell-Benning, Nurse-Fayne with Eric Gryba as 7D and Stanton the prominent one in Bakersfield. If the Oilers add Cody Franson, that will change, if they add Jared Cowen it will not. Your Sekera replacement is Matt Benning.

  • LC Connor McDavidAnother 100-point season is vital.
  • LC Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He must find his offensive touch at 5×5.
  • RC Ryan Strome. He’ll be mirror man to Leon, could emerge as 97’s RW.
  • RC Mark Letestu. Great utility, can he score 16 again?
  • LC Grayson Downing. He will be a feature player in Bakersfield.
  • LC Joe Gambardella. As of this instant, he has a chance to make the team.
  • RC Kyle Platzer. We’ll know by Christmas if the Oilers have any plan for him.
  • LC Bogdan Yakimov, RFA. Genuinely shocked they qualified him.

The Oilers achieved equal lefty-righty balance at center (if they run the forwards this way) but most of the heavy work belongs to McDavid and Nuge. The 5C at the NHL level may be Jujhar Khaira but don’t discount the idea of adding another NHL center to this group (the new Lander). The Condors also need a center, I wonder if Josh Currie will be signed to an AHL deal. A nice spot for Downing, who might see some NHL action (along with Gambardella).

  • L Milan LucicExpect improved 5×5 performance, possibly with Leon.
  • L Patrick Maroon. McDavid’s winger again, can he post 30 goals?
  • L Drake Caggiula. I think he may see extended time with 97. 15 goals?
  • LC Jujhar KhairaAs of now, he is an NHL regular. Oilers showing confidence.
  • L Joey Laleggia, RFA. If PC is done, Laleggia has an outside chance to make the Oilers.
  • L Mitch Callahan. Capable AHL veteran, does he have enough for an NHL look?
  • L Braden Christoffer. AHL energy winger.
  • L Tyler Benson. Slide rule, appears to be healthy and ready to go.

This area of the depth chart could use a boost, I think there’s a real chance we see both Laleggia and Callahan in the NHL at some point. Drake Caggiula is the main beneficiary from the Pouliot buyout, he has shown some utility (PK now a really important part of his game). Lucic and Maroon have to repeat their 20+ goals from a year ago and getting Caggiula in double digits would be a big help. Jujhar Khaira has to be feeling good about things right now.

  • R Leon Draisiatl, RFA. Contract could drag out all summer. A fantastic young player.
  • R Jesse Puljujarvi. Oilers are all-in on him beginning this fall.
  • R Anton SlepyshevPC mentioned him as being one of the youngsters who impressed.
  • R Zack Kassian. Will spend time higher up the depth chart.
  • R Iiro Pakarinen. The Rattie signing means direct competition, but Iiro can PK.
  • R Ty Rattie. A very good chance he sees NHL playing time.
  • R Patrick Russell. Scored only 8 times as rookie pro. Needs to fill the net this year.
  • R Brian Ferlin. Injuries have derailed him, can he recover?
  • R Greg Chase. Final year of entry-level deal ahead, has shown only flashes.

Chiarelli’s comments about Strome at center yesterday were heartening for me, as the roster sets up with more balance if that is the case. Leon is a splendid RW, one of the best in the NHL a year ago. I imagine he remains at center for half the season or so, but the roster makes more sense with this alignment. Jesse Puljujarvi is listed as 2R, but Slepyshev and Kassian will have something to say and we may see shuffling all winter long. Pakarinen and Rattie will be fighting for that last spot and it’s possible both men could make the team. Brian Ferlin’s medical story makes him an easy player to cheer for, we’ll see where he lands.

WHO WILL KILL PENALTIES?

  1. Mark Letestu 2:08
  2. Anton Lander 1:53
  3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1:43
  4. Matt Hendricks 1:30
  5. Benoit Pouliot 1:21
  6. Zack Kassian 1:06
  7. Connor McDavid 0:48
  8. Drake Caggiula 0:41

You want three sets of two for the PK and you don’t want McDavid out there a lot (if at all, in my opinion). I would expect Letestu, Nuge, Kassian, McDavid, Caggiula to get help from Pakarinen and Khaira but this is an issue and a concern. I prefer using 4×5 shots-against/60 as my measuring stick, and Pouliot was quality in the discipline. Any ideas who fills his 90 minutes?

EXTENDED FREE AGENT LIST (FORWARDS)

  1. L Patrick Marleau FREE AGENT. (82gp, 27-19-46). Knows the coach.
  2. R Drew Stafford FREE AGENT (58gp, 8-13-21). Chiarelli type.
  3. R-L Thomas Vanek FREE AGENT (68gp, 17-31-48). Offensive option.
  4. R Jarome Iginla FREE AGENT (80gp, 14-13-27). He can still shoot the puck.
  5. R Jaromir Jagr FREE AGENT (82gp, 16-30-46). Now 70, still going.
  6. R Ales Hemsky FREE AGENT (15gp, 4-3-7). Still brilliantly creative.
  7. C-L Brandon Pirri  FREE AGENT (60gp, 8-10-18). Low-cost scorer.
  8. R P-A Parenteau FREE AGENT (67gp, 13-15-28). Can still score.
  9. LC Mikhail Grigorenko FREE AGENT (75gp, 10-13-23). Good faceoff man.
  10. R Alex Chiasson FREE AGENT (81gp, 12-12-24). Has some value.

I think Pirri is the top affordable name here, but who knows? Peter Chiarelli said yesterday that he wanted to see what the kids can do and didn’t want to block them. That’s kind of saying they are giving these kids jobs without making them earn it. I believe the correct course of action is signing a veteran (Jagr!) and then forcing Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev and Drake Caggiula to beat him for the job. I’m not the general manager, but be warned: If this team gets off to a slow start, I will be yelling bloody murder about it on this blog.

EXTENDED FREE AGENT LIST (DEFENSE)

  1. RD Cody Franson FREE AGENT (68GP, 3-16-19). Out of the blue and into the black.
  2. LD Brian Campbell FREE AGENT (80gp, 5-12-17). The man can still wheel.
  3. LD Yohann Auvitu FREE AGENT (25gp, 2-2-4). He looks like a player.
  4. RD Dennis Wideman FREE AGENT (57gp, 5-13-18). Going to the end of the line.

I don’t know if Cody Franson has enough foot speed to play for Todd McLellan, but if he does then signing him to a short-term deal makes sense to me. Brian Campbell is likely Chicago or bust but I like him enough to list him here. Auvitu is available for just money and not very much of it. A nice bet.

OILERS PROJECTED ROSTER

I was most interested in Radim Vrbata’s signing yesterday as it pertains to the Oilers and the salary cap. If we project an offer sheet of $10 million for Leon (and my numbers are correct), there would still be $4.128 million in room if the club plans for payout of $4 million in bonuses. This could be accomplished by sending Jesse Puljujarvi to the farm for part of the season, as an example.

Still, at $3.25 million (with performance bonuses) that means money’s too tight to mention against the cap. Therefore, if you are mad at Chiarelli today about not signing a $3.25 million free agent, I will refer you to the clearly contentious Draisaitl negotiations. Is there a veteran forward out there who will sign for $2 million and a guaranteed roster spot? Probably not today.

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147 Responses to "WHO’S NEXT?"

  1. northof51 says:

    Because all we can really do is speculate, the rumours of a contentious Draisatl deal are starting to aggravate the fan base. If he really is pushing for $9 plus, he is knee-capping his team and his chance at winning.

    This won’t end well in Oil Country…

  2. deankb says:

    The more I look at the list, the more I’m thinking a Hemmer reunion makes sense. Will ego let this happen? I for one hope so, still one of my all time fav Oilers.

    If Drai wants a penny more than 7.5 I trade him now, like right now. Enough overpaying for short bursts of success. Lets factor in a good chunk of his first two years of his ELC instead of negotiating on one series vs Anaheim please…

  3. dustrock says:

    I think the longer we go past July 1st without the extensions signed, the more nervous the fanbase will become.

    We should have been in the Conference Finals. We’ve known about the extensions for months.

    Is McDavid’s done but they want to announce with Drai? What if neither of them is done?

  4. Ducey says:

    A word of caution on Benson.

    The quotes from him yesterday made it sound like he has just been skating for a few weeks and is still getting treatment.

    It sounds like full recovery is in the future.
    He may not be out of the woods yet.

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/blog-benson-feeling-good/c-290258240?tid=281885062

  5. Ducey says:

    northof51:
    Because all we can really do is speculate, the rumours of a contentious Draisatl deal are starting to aggravate the fan base. If he really is pushing for $9 plus, he is knee-capping his team and his chance at winning.

    This won’t end well in Oil Country…

    Meh. The same thing happened with Johnny Calgary last year. He didn’t sign until October 10.

    Nobody seems to be holding that against him now

  6. DRAGON52 says:

    If Oilers want Puljujarvi to succeed they need a mentor for him. Barely speaks English. Sign Jussi Jokinen, fills 2 main needs. A mentor for Jesse and a scoring winger good for 40 pts a year.

  7. godot10 says:

    northof51:
    Because all we can really do is speculate, the rumours of a contentious Draisatl deal are starting to aggravate the fan base. If he really is pushing for $9 plus, he is knee-capping his team and his chance at winning.

    This won’t end well in Oil Country…

    Paying good players what they are worth doesn’t kneecap a hockey team. Overpaying and over duration for replaceable players like Russell is what kneecaps a hockey team. Handing out NMC to non-critical hockey players like Lucic and Russell is what kneecaps a hockey team

    The OIlers should have paid for the injury insurance and asked the McDavid team to wait until Christmas to talk about their deal, and focused on Draisaitl first.

    As soon as the $13 million something number came our, and the Russell contract, then $9 million something is a fair ask for Draisaitl.

    Pittsburgh never tried to nickel and dime Malkin. They treated him with respect.

  8. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    deankb,

    -Great post LT!

    – The whole “trade the mofo how dare he ask for more than x” makes no sense.

    -I know LT brought it up a few days ago. If we are all good to pay McD 13mm plus Drai is entitled to seek the max amount as well. I dont see all of RNH CmD and Drai together next year either.

    – So sign Drai and by next year one of RNH or Drai will be traded.

  9. Chachi says:

    godot10:

    The OIlers should have paid for the injury insurance

    In what way would this have helped in a negotiation with Draisaitl? What do you think “injury insurance” does? Why would you think they wouldn’t have it already?

  10. treevojo says:

    godot10: Paying good players what they are worth doesn’t kneecap a hockey team.Overpaying and over duration for replaceable players like Russell is what kneecaps a hockey team.Handing out NMC to non-critical hockey players like Lucic and Russell is what kneecaps a hockey team

    The OIlers should have paid for the injury insurance and asked the McDavid team to wait until Christmas to talk about their deal, and focused on Draisaitl first.

    As soon as the $13 million something number came our, and the Russell contract, then $9 million something is a fair ask for Draisaitl.

    Pittsburgh never tried to nickel and dime Malkin.They treated him with respect.

    Malkin was also coming off of seasons scoring 85, 106, 113 pts.

  11. jake70 says:

    godot10: Paying good players what they are worth doesn’t kneecap a hockey team.Overpaying and over duration for replaceable players like Russell is what kneecaps a hockey team.Handing out NMC to non-critical hockey players like Lucic and Russell is what kneecaps a hockey team

    The OIlers should have paid for the injury insurance and asked the McDavid team to wait until Christmas to talk about their deal, and focused on Draisaitl first.

    As soon as the $13 million something number came our, and the Russell contract, then $9 million something is a fair ask for Draisaitl.

    Pittsburgh never tried to nickel and dime Malkin.They treated him with respect.

    If only the Oilers had the luxury of the back diving contract for 97 +. 29

  12. sliderule says:

    Ducey:
    A word of caution on Benson.

    The quotes from him yesterday made it sound like he has just been skating for a few weeks and is still getting treatment.

    It sounds like full recovery is in the future.
    He may not be out of the woods yet.

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/blog-benson-feeling-good/c-290258240?tid=281885062

    That is the same take I had on his interview

    It sure doesn’t sound like he is pain free

    Drafting players with injury history can have problems

  13. treevojo says:

    jake70: If only the Oilers had the luxury of the back diving contract for 97 +. 29

    Both Crosby and Malkin signed 5 year contracts coming out of entry level.

  14. Ducey says:

    godot10: Paying good players what they are worth doesn’t kneecap a hockey team.Overpaying and over duration for replaceable players like Russell is what kneecaps a hockey team.Handing out NMC to non-critical hockey players like Lucic and Russell is what kneecaps a hockey team

    The OIlers should have paid for the injury insurance and asked the McDavid team to wait until Christmas to talk about their deal, and focused on Draisaitl first.

    As soon as the $13 million something number came our, and the Russell contract, then $9 million something is a fair ask for Draisaitl.

    Pittsburgh never tried to nickel and dime Malkin.They treated him with respect.

    So paying Russell, what $1 million more than he is worth ( your argument, I think got market value) kneecaps the team but paying Leon $9 million x 8 for one good season won’t?

  15. dustrock says:

    Ducey:
    A word of caution on Benson.

    The quotes from him yesterday made it sound like he has just been skating for a few weeks and is still getting treatment.

    It sounds like full recovery is in the future.
    He may not be out of the woods yet.

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/blog-benson-feeling-good/c-290258240?tid=281885062

    Benson could play 82 games with the Oilers for the next 5 years straight and I’d still be expecting him to miss half of each season.

  16. godot10 says:

    Ducey: So paying Russell, what $1 million more than he is worth ( your argument, I think got market value) kneecaps the team but paying Leon $9 million x 8 for one good season won’t?

    What about “over-duration” and “NMC” do you not understand with regard to Russell? Selectively ignoring the parts of the Russell contract that are indefensible.

  17. Chachi says:

    Some people seem to think what Leon did this past season is all due to McDavid and that he somehow should not get any credit for the numbers he put up. He’s no Malkin, not yet anyways, but here’s the list of Penguins players other than Crosby and Malkin who had better seasons than the one Draisaitl just put up over Crosby’s career:

    James Neal: 81 points in a season Crosby missed most of.
    Chris Kunitz: 52 points in a lockout year.

    What Draisaitl just did as a 21 year old indicates he’s a hell of a player and I agree they shouldn’t blow their brains out on the contract, but give the man a little credit.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Chachi:
    Some people seem to think what Leon did this past season is all due to McDavid and that he somehow should not get any credit for the numbers he put up. He’s no Malkin, not yet anyways, but here’s the list of Penguins players other than Crosby and Malkin who had better seasons than the one Draisaitl just put up over Crosby’s career:

    James Neal: 81 points in a season Crosby missed most of.
    Chris Kunitz: 52 points in a lockout year.

    What Draisaitl just did as a 21 year old indicates he’s a hell of a player and I agree they shouldn’t blow their brains out on the contract, but give the man a little credit.

    No doubt he’s an extremely valuable player. I think PC may want to reconsider the 8-year deal, going for five with each (and having McDavid’s number being less). If McDavid signs for five years times $10.5, then Leon probably signs for five times $7.5. Or something like that.

  19. JOFA says:

    Draisaitl and Liut need to get their head out of their ass. Make the kid sweat. Should have chosen Bennett😉

  20. fifthcartel says:

    I disagree that Strome at center sets up for more balance. I think Draisaitl at center and Strome at RW is a better option.

    IIRC, Storme hasn’t played much center since being in the NHL. It sounds like Capuano played Nelson as the C and Weight didn’t really change that.

  21. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: No doubt he’s an extremely valuable player. I think PC may want to reconsider the 8-year deal, going for five with each (and having McDavid’s number being less). If McDavid signs for five years times $10.5, then Leon probably signs for five times $7.5. Or something like that.

    I’m thinking the same and that why there was no announcement yesterday. Connor probably reconsidering the numbers so he can keep Leon. here’s hoping

  22. McNuge93 says:

    Ducey: Meh. The same thing happened with Johnny Calgary last year. He didn’t sign until October 10.

    Nobody seems to be holding that against him now

    Yes but both he and Calgary got off to a really slow start. Without a great run in Feb they would have missed the playoffs. The last thing we want is a slow start.

  23. Pescador says:

    treevojo: Malkin was also coming off of seasons scoring 85, 106, 113 pts.

    Was one of these seasons Sans Crosby?

  24. Ducey says:

    godot10: What about “over-duration” and “NMC” do you not understand with regard to Russell? Selectively ignoring the parts of the Russell contract that are indefensible.

    I take it from your response you don’t have an answer. Because having Russell for 2-4 yrs isn’t going to hamstring the team.

    Other options like Hamonic or Demers cost the same in term and cap hit. They need a 2RHD. Who would that be, and how much would he cost? Is the difference between this guy and Russell in ability and cost so much that the team is crippled? Of course not.

    Russell is a serviceable top 4 defenseman. Every team has one. They are not sexy and Russell doesn’t put up a good Corsi (whatever that’s worth). But if you think having a guy like this is the reason the Oilers might have problems with the cap you are confused.

  25. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide:I’m not the general manager, but be warned: If this team gets off to a slow start, I will be yelling bloody murder about it on this blog.

    Ummm…I’d bet against this. 😏

  26. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: No doubt he’s an extremely valuable player. I think PC may want to reconsider the 8-year deal, going for five with each (and having McDavid’s number being less). If McDavid signs for five years times $10.5, then Leon probably signs for five times $7.5. Or something like that.

    Agreed.

  27. Pescador says:

    JOFA:
    Draisaitl and Liut need to get their head out of their ass. Make the kid sweat. Should have chosen Bennett

    Liut Eric? Couldn’t agree more

  28. treevojo says:

    Pescador: Was one of these seasons Sans Crosby?

    The 106 pt season Crosby only played in 53 games.

  29. Chachi says:

    Hayley Wickenheiser is on the ice with the Oilers’ prospects as part of the Oilers staff apparently. Cool!

  30. Richard S.S. says:

    Ryan Strome is a Center who can also play RW. Peter Chiarelli and his Team sees him as a Center. Ryan sees himself as a Center. I think it’s fair to say these people know what they are talking about. That I trust. Everyone is entitled to an opinion – right or wrong.

  31. fifthcartel says:

    The problem with Kris Russell is he has no history of being a top four defenseman without getting killed in shot attempts. If you think that doesn’t matter, I’d suggest it shows that KR isn’t pushing play where it should be and that’s a problem if he’s playing 20+ minutes a game.

    He’s been at least a -3% corsi rel player in every year he’s average over 20 minutes.

    Hamonic and Demers have had multiple seasons of strong play in top four role, Kris Russel doesn’t have one.

    He’s also over 30 and in that age where things can fall apart quickly for defensive defensemen.

    The Russell contract is very poor. It severely limits the ability to improve the defense. Chiarelli should have moved on and improved on Russell.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    The more I think about it, the more I would love to get Hemsky back here on a cheap short contract – assuming he is healthy.

    We are definitely shy on offence and experience on the right wing and Hemmer can help with both of those and provide some shelter to the kids.

    He wouldn’t be relied on as a primary source of offence like he was a decade ago and I think he could thrive in a secondary/tertiary role and slide up and down the lineup.

    I’d rather a bit of a shooter than a playmaker but that’s OK – the key is the shelter of the younger developing kids.

    If he’s healthy, does this not make perfect sense?

  33. admiralmark says:

    godot10: Paying good players what they are worth doesn’t kneecap a hockey team.Overpaying and over duration for replaceable players like Russell is what kneecaps a hockey team.Handing out NMC to non-critical hockey players like Lucic and Russell is what kneecaps a hockey team

    The OIlers should have paid for the injury insurance and asked the McDavid team to wait until Christmas to talk about their deal, and focused on Draisaitl first.

    As soon as the $13 million something number came our, and the Russell contract, then $9 million something is a fair ask for Draisaitl.

    Pittsburgh never tried to nickel and dime Malkin.They treated him with respect.

    Malkins ELC

    2006-2009
    242 Games
    304 pts
    1.26 Pts/PG
    Contract then signed for $8.7 million x 5 years

    Draisaitl ELC
    191 Games
    137 pts
    .72 Pts/PG
    Contract demand $10 mill/yr??

    How bout Draisaitl and his agent show the team more respect and be reasonable. His demands are ridiculous if true and at this point his track is a far cry from Malkins when he signed his 1st contract after his ELC.

  34. Pescador says:

    Chachi,
    but give the man a little credit.
    – Would $40 million over 5 years be enough credit?

  35. MegaOil8197 says:

    Pescador,

    In 2011/2012

    Crosby
    GP 22
    Pts 37

    Malkin
    GP 75
    Pts 109

  36. Chachi says:

    Pescador:
    Chachi,
    but give the man a little credit.
    – Would $40 million over 5 years be enough credit?

    I think the team values him more than maybe some of the fans do. I think if he asked for 8 million a year the Oilers would do that. 7.5 seems right to me.

  37. Soup Fascist says:

    Does it make sense to bring Iginla or Jagr in on a one year deal?

    Would buy some time for 98 to play down the lineup or in Bakersfield.

    Obviously both are past their best before date but would they still have the boots to play a bit with McDavid?

    I think the chance to play with McDavid – and put up some points – would allow them to take a sub $2M contract. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of chatter about it but as a fan I think it would be great.

  38. Richard S.S. says:

    NHL contracts of six or more years are complex undertakings, the longer they are the more complex they are. When a generational player is involved the complexity skyrockets. When the NHL/NHLPA agreement/contract expires during the contract, that and the expected lockout adds another whole level of complexity to any negotiating.

    Chiarelli proposes an item to The Agent. The Agent contacts his client, when they are free to talk, and discusses the item breaking it down as much as possible. Agent calls Chiarelli. A single item in a contract could take a week to finalise.

    I can’t imagine Peter Chiarelli rushing anything. With no Cap, McDavid could easily be worth $25.0 – $30.0 Million a year. Signing McDavid for anything less than back-to-back eight-year contracts is counterproductive. Getting anything less than a Max deal is a blessing.

  39. McSorley33 says:

    So, we are about to pay Leon big money to play wing?

    Strome at centre?

    Russell playing top 4 without Sekera to bai….ahem ,help him out.

    Betting big on Cags and Pool party….

    What could go wrong?

  40. Soup Fascist says:

    Lowetide: No doubt he’s an extremely valuable player. I think PC may want to reconsider the 8-year deal, going for five with each (and having McDavid’s number being less). If McDavid signs for five years times $10.5, then Leon probably signs for five times $7.5. Or something like that.

    Locking in McDavid for max years is a coup, IMO. If Drai camp isn’t reasonable – sign him to a bridge that leaves him as an RFA at expiry and re-evaluate after he has driven his own line for a couple of years. If he shows he can, then he proves he is worth the money Liut is looking for.

  41. jfry says:

    I think it would serve the discussion a lot better if we stopped comparing malkin and drai. the glove just doesn’t fit, and if we’re going to do that, please adjust for historical scoring and cap inflation, which i haven’t seen.

    regardless, i don’t think it’s a legitimate comparison, no matter how bad we want it to be.

    more contemporary comparisons should probably look at Johnny Hockey and Tarasenko. Tarasenko was two years older coming off a very similar season to what drai just had. Johnny was a year older.

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/pcomp_finder.cgi?request=1&match=0&player1_hint=Leon+Draisaitl&player1_select=Leon+Draisaitl&player1=draisle01&player2_hint=Johnny+Gaudreau&player2_select=Johnny+Gaudreau&player2=gaudrjo01&player3_hint=Vladimir+Tarasenko&player3_select=Vladimir+Tarasenko&player3=tarasvl01

    hopefully this helps re-frame this discussion more in reality than our wildest dreams. cheers.

  42. Optimism is like heroin says:

    Hey LT, Do you have any connections with Werenka over at truperformance?

    After still seeing so much venom directed at Russell I recalled an article regarding Russell and how they view him. From the sounds of it they rate every play the player makes and they had some very positive things to say.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/analytics-expert-says-kris-russell-of-edmonton-oilers-is-underrated-and-one-of-nhls-top-defensive-d-men

    So they are saying he is just a cut below Vlasic but is a higher event player like Beachemin was. This has value as we saw by how much the coach played him and yes he gets killed in corsi but makes the right plays to prevent goals. Just wondering if you are able to get a little more info on how truperformance rates him?

    Truperformance also has an article that looks at why there was such an improvement over the last 2 seasons.
    http://truperformancehockey.com/news/OILERS%20TURNAROUND
    Looking there they ranked Russell as the 2nd best Dman by virtue of his defensive plays ….. he was 26% better overall from the 2nd best in 15/16 and that was pushed by making a 110% improvement in defensive play.

  43. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    LT: Do you ever take a day off? What is “L Tyler Benson. Slide rule..”? ….

    “No doubt he’s an extremely valuable player. I think PC may want to reconsider the 8-year deal, going for five with each (and having McDavid’s number being less). If McDavid signs for five years times $10.5, then Leon probably signs for five times $7.5. Or something like that.”

    – I agree 100%. fans seem to think this means the players will run away or dislike Edmonton. No superstar has left their original team YET. Stamkos was close. We await Johnny T; so it’s illogical to assume these men will jump ship after 5 years.

    I like the forward depth, utility, size, speed and skill. I prefer Leon at Center also, but as you mention, he will most likely be flip flopping all year …

    I think the Coach should give a big push to RNH to see if he can reach 55 or 60 points. We all know he’s most likely gone and if he gets some offensive mojo back, the return will be Great. If he puts up 40 – 45 points, it will be meh.

    Great stuff Everybody!

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    NHL contracts of six or more years are complex undertakings, the longer they are the more complex they are.When a generational player is involved the complexity skyrockets.When the NHL/NHLPA agreement/contract expires during the contract, that and the expected lockout adds another whole level of complexity to any negotiating.

    Chiarelli proposes an item to The Agent.The Agent contacts his client, when they are free to talk, and discusses the item breaking it down as much as possible.Agent calls Chiarelli.A single item in a contract could take a week to finalise.

    I can’t imagine Peter Chiarelli rushing anything.With no Cap, McDavid could easily be worth $25.0 – $30.0 Million a year.Signing McDavid for anything less than back-to-back eight-year contracts is counterproductive.Getting anything less than a Max deal is a blessing.

    I don’t disagree with you at all with respect to the complexity of contract negotiations – I’m a corporate finance lawyer specializing in syndicated corporate credits – my life is negotiating contracts on behalf of sophisticated clients. Negotiations are highly complex.

    You are also correct with respect to what McDavid is worth in a non-cap world, however, to me, that is somewhat irrelevant in a cap world. Also, what he is “worth” is not necessarily a direct correlation to what is reasonable from a cap hit perspective as far as building a championship hockey team.

    Yes, sure, he is “worth” the max contract, however, that is not reasonable in the cap world when the max is $15M and the current highest cap hit is $10.5M – not in the sense of one player on a 23 man roster with the goal being the Stanley Cup.

    To the extent a high cap hit number for McDavid is inflating Drasaitl’s worth, it makes even less sense as far as reasonableness in the cap world.

    I have always felt that, coming off his ELC, McDavid should come in at apx $11M to make him the highest cap hit in the league. To require $13.5M requires a 20% plus increase to the current highest cap hit and that is not quite reasonable in my mind.

    If we are “buying his 20s” then, yes, I get it, he needs a premium over that $11M – take it to $12M/season. To me, in the current flat cap world, $13.5M is not reasonable but I’ve accepted that it is going to happen.

    I cannot accept Drai at anything over $8M – that’s not even in the realm of reasonableness given his recent comparables and I’m glad that it seems Chiarelli agrees and is not giving in to unreasonable contract demands from Leon’s camp. We cannot continue to overpay every player that needs a new contract, no matter how important they are. At some point, we need a player to sign a reasonable and/or an actual value contract (i.e. Klef, Larsson, etc.).

  45. gogliano says:

    Soup Fascist: Locking in McDavid for max years is a coup, IMO.If Drai camp isn’t reasonable – sign him to a bridge that leaves him as an RFA at expiry and re-evaluate after he has driven his own line for a couple of years. If he shows he can, then he proves he is worth the money Liut is looking for.

    This to me is the right approach. McDavid is McDavid — he gets what he wants, and if we can get him signed to 8 we do it. There is no universe where I want McDavid signed for fewer years than more years.

    Draisatl? He’ll be a star in the league but we hold the RFA & playing with McDavid hammers. There is no sense not exploiting those cheaper RFA years, particularly if he is being difficult in negotiations. Let him sit if he doesn’t like it. It won’t do him or his agent any good seeing other players rack up points playing next to McDavid.

  46. Scungilli Slushy says:

    DRAGON52:
    If Oilers want Puljujarvi to succeed they need a mentor for him. Barely speaks English. Sign Jussi Jokinen, fills 2 main needs. A mentor for Jesse and a scoring winger good for 40 pts a year.

    If Puljujaarvi doesn’t speak english by now I’d trade him because something is wrong with his noggin, he’s been over here for a good while now.

  47. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree with you at all with respect to the complexity of contract negotiations – I’m a corporate finance lawyer specializing in syndicated corporate credits – my life is negotiating contracts on behalf of sophisticated clients. Negotiations are highly complex.

    You are also correct with respect to what McDavid is worth in a non-cap world, however, to me, that is somewhat irrelevant in a cap world. Also, what he is “worth” is not necessarily a direct correlation to what is reasonable from a cap hit perspective as far as building a championship hockey team.

    Yes, sure, he is “worth” the max contract, however, that is not reasonable in the cap world when the max is $15M and the current highest cap hit is $10.5M – not in the sense of one player on a 23 man roster with the goal being the Stanley Cup.

    To the extent a high cap hit number for McDavid is inflating Drasaitl’s worth, it makes even less sense as far as reasonableness in the cap world.

    I have always felt that, coming off his ELC, McDavid should come in at apx $11M to make him the highest cap hit in the league. To require $13.5M requires a 20% plus increase to the current highest cap hit and that is not quite reasonable in my mind.

    If we are “buying his 20s” then, yes, I get it, he needs a premium over that $11M – take it to $12M/season.To me, in the current flat cap world, $13.5M is not reasonable but I’ve accepted that it is going to happen.

    I cannot accept Drai at anything over $8M – that’s not even in the realm of reasonableness given his recent comparables and I’m glad that it seems Chiarelli agrees and is not giving in to unreasonable contract demands from Leon’s camp. We cannot continue to overpay every player that needs a new contract, no matter how important they are.At some point, we need a player to sign a reasonable and/or an actual value contract (i.e. Klef, Larsson, etc.).

    I enjoyed readying your comment here. I wonder if it would work in a contract if say the CAP goes up for argument sack by 2 million the following 7 years of CM and LD contracts but their contracts it is written in a way they would get a percentage of that increase. This way they keep that certain percentage of the whole CAP hit. I would like to start CM at 11 and LD at 9 and then go up by a certain percentage if the CAP goes up. Just a thought

  48. Edmonton_fan says:

    My concern with the Russell signing is that the Oilers now have four defensemen signed for the next 4 seasons – all at $4 million or over.

    Where is the cap space to sign Nurse or Benning before the age of 25 if one of them takes a major step forward? Are Ethan Bear & Caleb Jones expected to be on entry level contracts for the next 5+ years???

    I am truly missing something…

  49. Optimism is like heroin says:

    Edmonton_fan,

    Chia has shown when he makes a bet and it turns out bad he will walk away from player by trade or buyout as needed.

  50. Dominoiler says:

    I don’t think they’ll do it, but put me down for liking Hemsky on nuges rw.. only vet on the market that is savvy enough to play toughs, still has speed and creativity, and is so injury prone that he doesn’t ‘really’ block any players below him (i kidd), and could mentor the kids.. i just don’t see any options for a rw that can play the toughs, could be a big damn deal..

  51. stephen sheps says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If Puljujaarvi doesn’t speak english by now I’d trade him because something is wrong with his noggin, he’s been over here for a good while now.

    Just out of curiosity, how many languages do you speak? If it is multiple languages, are any of them completely different than English in just about every conceivable way like, say, Arabic or Russian or Mandarin? Or perhaps shall we say Finnish?

    The Finnish language is unlike just about any in the world – the closest comparable languages are Hungarian and Estonian, but that’s just in terms of historical roots rather than actual word structure.

    Jesse is a 19 year old kid, who, like most Europeans probably speaks two or three languages already, but in his case it’s likely Finnish and Swedish given the education system in his country. Learning new languages at any age is no easy task, especially a language like English with its many exceptions, strange rules and clumsy syntax that feels and sounds nothing like Finnish at all. I don’t care whether what you said was intended as a throw-away joke or not, but you can’t say something isn’t right with a teenager’s head if he hasn’t learned a language in a year. It takes time, patience and practice, not to mention confidence. Not a cool comment, even in jest.

  52. rickithebear says:

    Edmonton_fan:
    My concern with the Russell signing is that the Oilers now have four defensemen signed for the next 4 seasons – all at $4 million or over.

    Where is the cap space to sign Nurse or Benning before the age of 25 if one of them takes a major step forward? Are Ethan Bear & Caleb Jones expected to be on entry level contracts for the next 5+ years???

    I am truly missing something…

    We curently have 3 dmen who have been top 60 hd dmen.
    All 3 are right side dmen.
    Larson
    Benning
    Fayne

    We have an elite shot spression dman who,s hd results match thier d partner
    Russel – Larsson 1.83 is quite nice.
    Klefbom – fayne were unable to handle 1st comp.
    But what is evident is klefbom and nurse are hd boat anchors.
    Niether have proven an ability to play above 3 rd comp.

    Russel – larsson 1.83 evga 1 st comp 8.167M
    Sekera – fayne 2 nd best 1st comp 9.165M
    Benning top 50 hd

    Looking at the dmen who are elite hd results with hd dmen.
    Despres!

    I would take him before klef or nurse

  53. leadfarmer says:

    fifthcartel:
    The problem with Kris Russell is he has no history of being a top four defenseman without getting killed in shot attempts. If you think that doesn’t matter, I’d suggest it shows that KR isn’t pushing play where it should be and that’s a problem if he’s playing 20+ minutes a game.

    He’s been at least a -3% corsi rel player in every year he’s average over 20 minutes.

    Hamonic and Demers have had multiple seasons of strong play in top four role, Kris Russel doesn’t have one.

    He’s also over 30 and in that age where things can fall apart quickly for defensive defensemen.

    The Russell contract is very poor. It severely limits the ability to improve the defense. Chiarelli should have moved on and improved on Russell.

    Umm you do know Russell had the best year out of those players and while Hamonic had an injury plagued year Florida has been trying to give Demers away one year after signing him. If you are using Corsi to evaluate Russell and other shot blocking d you are doing the stats thing all wrong. Corsi is not Russell’s issue. Getting the puck on the forwards stick is and giving up zone entries too easily.

    But seriously what is this obsession with Demers around here

  54. pocession charge says:

    leadfarmer: Umm you do know Russell had the best year out of those players and while Hamonic had an injury plagued year Florida has been trying to give Demers away one year after signing him.If you are using Corsi to evaluate Russell and other shot blocking d you are doing the stats thing all wrong.Corsi is not Russell’s issue.Getting the puck on the forwards stick is and giving up zone entries too easily.

    But seriously what is this obsession with Demers around here

    If FifthCartel won a million dollars, the first thing he would do is complain that it wasn’t five million.

  55. Lowetide says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If Puljujaarvi doesn’t speak english by now I’d trade him because something is wrong with his noggin, he’s been over here for a good while now.

    When Jari Kurri was in his rookie season (he would have been 20) he was hired as a spokesperson for (I think it was) Shipley Photo. He was asked to come into CFRN Radio to record a 30-second script. I was the “voice” reading the nuts and bolts (name, address, sell line) and Jari was the one reading the bulk of the copy (say 20 seconds).

    We tried for an hour, mostly because he was trying so hard and we instantly liked him and wanted him to succeed. When we were done, I had read 27 seconds and he tagged it with “tell them Jari sent you.”

    I am extremely happy Glen Sather didn’t trade Kurri, suspect you will one day feel the same about Puljujarvi.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: I enjoyed readying your comment here. I wonder if it would work in a contract if say the CAP goes up for argument sack by 2 million the following 7 years of CM and LD contracts but their contracts it is written in a way they would get a percentage of that increase. This way they keep that certain percentage of the whole CAP hit. I would like to start CM at 11 and LD at 9 and then go up by a certain percentage if the CAP goes up. Just a thought

    These types of compensation structures are not permitted under the current CBA and likely would be difficult to implement in to the CBA in a hard cap environment.

  57. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    Lowetide,

    LT: Do you ever take a day off?What is “L Tyler Benson. Slide rule..”? ….

    “No doubt he’s an extremely valuable player. I think PC may want to reconsider the 8-year deal, going for five with each (and having McDavid’s number being less). If McDavid signs for five years times $10.5, then Leon probably signs for five times $7.5. Or something like that.”

    –I agree 100%. fans seem to think this means the players will run away or dislike Edmonton. No superstar has left their original team YET. Stamkos was close. We await Johnny T; so it’s illogical to assume these men will jump ship after 5 years.

    I like the forward depth, utility, size, speed and skill.I prefer Leon at Center also, but as you mention, he will most likely be flip flopping all year …

    I think the Coach should give a big push to RNH to see if he can reach 55 or 60 points. We all know he’s most likely gone and if he gets some offensive mojo back, the return will be Great. If he puts up 40 – 45 points, it will be meh.

    Great stuff Everybody!

    I picked rocks and knocked on doors selling Watchtowers when I was 10. Everyday is a day off after that! 🙂

    Slide rule means he isn’t really on the 50man, he and Wells. They will slide back to the minors.

  58. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear: We curently have 3 dmen who have been top 60 hd dmen.
    All 3 are right side dmen.
    Larson
    Benning
    Fayne

    We have an elite shot spression dman who,s hd results match thier d partner
    Russel – Larsson 1.83 is quite nice.
    Klefbom – fayne were unable to handle 1st comp.
    But what is evident is klefbom and nurse are hd boat anchors.
    Niether have proven an ability to play above 3 rd comp.

    If you have Fayne above Klefbom on the depth chart you are doing this wrong

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    How good are teams without their star player on the ice? Does this matter a little or a lot?

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/07/a-look-at-nhl-teams-results-with-and.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Thanks as always to LT for letting me promote my work here.

  60. JOFA says:

    LT,

    Out of curiosity, do u know of any prominent JWs to play in the league? Past or Present. I know the LDS community has some phenomenal athletes.

  61. godot10 says:

    admiralmark: Malkins ELC

    2006-2009
    242 Games
    304 pts
    1.26 Pts/PG
    Contract then signed for $8.7 million x 5 years

    Draisaitl ELC
    191 Games
    137 pts
    .72 Pts/PG
    Contract demand $10 mill/yr??

    How bout Draisaitl and his agent show the team more respect and be reasonable. His demands are ridiculous if true and at this point his track is a far cry from Malkins when he signed his 1st contract after his ELC.

    Malkin was two year older in each of those ELC than Draisaitl because he played in Europe the lockout year.

    Scoring coming out of the lockout was inflated compared to a decade later due to more penalties being called.

    Draisaitl’s 3rd year in his ELC corresponds to Malkin’s rookie season in terms of age.

    Draisaitl isn’t responsible for the OIlers blowing off the first year of his ELC which questionable handling of the player.

    And timing is everything. Draisaitl’s big year came in his contract year. Scheifle’s came the year after his contract year. And McDavid is resetting the salary scales, driving a dagger into the NHL middle class.

  62. Chris says:

    Yea it seems like we are essentially in a holding pattern until McDavid and Draisaddle have deals, at that point we go rummaging through the bargain bin.

  63. godot10 says:

    Soup Fascist:
    Does it make sense to bring Iginla or Jagr in on a one year deal?

    Would buy some time for 98 to play down the lineup or in Bakersfield.

    Obviously both are past their best before date but would they still have the boots to play a bit with McDavid?

    I think the chance to play with McDavid – and put up some points – would allow them to take a sub $2M contract. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of chatter about it but as a fan I think it would be great.

    Lucic has the role of the slow as molasses forward. One really can’t have two. And Lucic also has the spot for the slow forward on the power play. Lucic, now that the Oilers have married him for the 1st half of the McDavid era, precludes Jagr, or Iginla.

  64. Lowetide says:

    JOFA:
    LT,

    Out of curiosity,do u know of any prominent JWs to play in the league? Past or Present.I know the LDS community has some phenomenal athletes.

    No. Tom Edur remains the most famous Jehovah’s Witness hockey player. Michael Jackson and Prince were from the music industry.

  65. Bag of Pucks says:

    I believe Chiarelli and MacLellan are 100% committed to building this team with its greatest strengths down the middle and that means Draisaitl at 2C. The split was already made when Nuge failed to provide the necessary secondary scoring in the playoffs and they gave Leon the keys to the C slot then. They’ll continue in that direction this season.

    Strome was acquired because A) Eberle failed his 1RW audition alongside McDavid & B) cap space. Strome, Puli, Cags and Slep setup as a nice training camp battle for Connor’s triggerman.

    I could see them landing on something like this:

    Maroon/McDavid/Strome
    Lucic/Draisaitl/Puli. (Look at the beef on this line. Cycle dominance)
    Caggiula/RNH/Slepyshev
    Khaira/Letestu/Kassian

  66. who says:

    Edmonton_fan:
    My concern with the Russell signing is that the Oilers now have four defensemen signed for the next 4 seasons – all at $4 million or over.

    Where is the cap space to sign Nurse or Benning before the age of 25 if one of them takes a major step forward? Are Ethan Bear & Caleb Jones expected to be on entry level contracts for the next 5+ years???

    I am truly missing something…

    Sekera and Russel will both be tradeable after 2, and if I understand the contract, Russell will be very tradeable after 3.
    This gives Nurse and Benning 2 years to establish themselves as top 4 options. Pretty reasonable timeline.
    It also gives Jones, Bear, Mantha and Paigan 2 years to establish themselves as NHL dmen. Pretty reasonable timeline.
    Chia has got the d set up pretty nicely with some flexibility built in in 2 years. It’s just too bad that Sekera got hurt.

  67. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer,

    But seriously what is this obsession with Demers around here?
    >
    No kidding I thought we chased Galileo out of here already.
    Him & his Elite competition charts/ Corsi maps.
    Lock him up or better yet burn him,
    Witch

  68. Richard S.S. says:

    Ryan Strome is an RFA after this contract is over, his last RFA year.
    Anton Slepyshev is an RFA after this contract is over, has three RFA years left.
    Drake Caggiula is an RFA after this contract and likely has more than one RFA year left.
    Matthew Benning is an RFA after this contract and likely has more than one RFA year left.
    Darnell Nurse is an RFA after this contract is over, has three RFA years left.
    Nick Ellis is an RFA after this contract is over and likely has more than one RFA year left.
    Laurent Brossoit is an RFA after this contract is over, his last RFA year.

    Does it take more than an extra $10.0 Million to resign everyone?

    Milan Lucic is tradable three seasons from now, after the 2020-21 Season.
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is tradable at any time.
    Andrej Sekera is tradable two seasons from now, after the 2018-19 Season.
    Kris Russell is tradable two seasons from now, after the 2018-19 Season.

    I think that’s why Draisaitl’s number is very important.

  69. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide: No doubt he’s an extremely valuable player. I think PC may want to reconsider the 8-year deal, going for five with each (and having McDavid’s number being less). If McDavid signs for five years times $10.5, then Leon probably signs for five times $7.5. Or something like that.

    I think this is the right play and has been all along although I preferred a bridge for Leon.

    And I think at 5 years the number for Leon is not 7.5 but more like 6.75.

    I still think the Tarasenko deal is comparable but have to give Leon a premium for inflation and position difference.

    At 8 years I would go 8.25 and call it a day.

    But I still.think the issues here remains…the sample size with Leon driving his own line is small. I believe Leon CAN do it, but the Oilers are taking on a big risk.

    Also, the assumption with these 8 year deals is the cap keeps rising at the same rate it has. We have seen growth stall a bit in revenue.

    On an 8 year deal you are assuming that by years 6,7,8 as a percentage of cap hit you will be getting a bargain. But you are paying for it in the front end.

    I think it’s not a great way to team build. Give me the shorter term and lower cap hits so that there is room to work with in years 1-5 of the deal, too.

    McDavid at 5 X 10.5
    Draisaitl at 5 X 6.75

    Is plenty of term for Oiler fans to sleep easy at night and saves 4m in cap space to spend on making the team better.

    It’s no good to blindly go for the longest term because then you can’t add pieces and compete until the back end of these deals.

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10,

    Scoring coming out of the lockout was inflated compared to a decade later due to more penalties being called.

    5v5 scoring wasn’t inflated.

    5v4 scoring was inflated due to all the penalties.

    If you are using 5v5 numbers to compare to Malkin, its fair.

    Here’s the data:

    Average NHL team 05/06
    2.04 5v5 Goals per game
    1.04 5v4 Goals per game

    Average NHL team 16/17
    2.20 5v5 Goals per game
    0.57 5v5 Goals per game

    I got the data from hockey-reference.

  71. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer: Umm you do know Russell had the best year out of those players and while Hamonic had an injury plagued year Florida has been trying to give Demers away one year after signing him.If you are using Corsi to evaluate Russell and other shot blocking d you are doing the stats thing all wrong.Corsi is not Russell’s issue.Getting the puck on the forwards stick is and giving up zone entries too easily.

    But seriously what is this obsession with Demers around here

    They want .190 starting pitchers to DH.

    Though when demers is asked to play 3rd comp he is one of the few offensive dmen to be in the up group of eva rare and still near top,60 hd.

    Like Parayko.

  72. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Montreal signing Price for 8 years…yikes…he is a great one but injury prone. Not a fan of mega deals for goalies.

    Edit 10.5m per to boot.

  73. godot10 says:

    who: Sekera and Russel will both be tradeable after 2, and if I understand the contract, Russell will be very tradeable after 3.
    This gives Nurse and Benning 2 years to establish themselves as top 4 options. Pretty reasonable timeline.
    It also gives Jones, Bear, Mantha and Paigan 2 years to establish themselves as NHL dmen. Pretty reasonable timeline.
    Chia has got the d set up pretty nicely with some flexibility built in in 2 years. It’s just too bad that Sekera got hurt.

    Russell gets to choose the teams, NOT the Oilers. It is easy to choose 10 or 15 teams that are impossible to be traded to.

  74. Bag of Pucks says:

    I think it’s important to emphasize that we have no official confirmation from the team, player or agent on Draisaitl being ‘difficult’ in these negotiations. That is 100% media and fan speculation at this time. Funny how these things tend to take on a life of their own.

  75. admiralmark says:

    godot10: Malkin was two year older in each of those ELC than Draisaitl because he played in Europe the lockout year.

    Scoring coming out of the lockout was inflated compared to a decade later due to more penalties being called.

    Draisaitl’s 3rd year in his ELC corresponds to Malkin’s rookie season in terms of age.

    Draisaitl isn’t responsible for the OIlers blowing off the first year of his ELC which questionable handling of the player.

    And timing is everything.Draisaitl’s big year came in his contract year.Scheifle’s came the year after his contract year.And McDavid is resetting the salary scales, driving a dagger into the NHL middle class.

    Exactly the point. Look at all the track they had of Malkin when he signed. It was clear they had a superstar that could drive his own line. Draisaitl has not shown enough to be compared to Malkin just yet. He played well with McDavid. Great. Does anybody actually believe he’s a $10 million player away from McDavid?? What has he done to prove this worth? Love the player. But it’s unreasonable if he’s asking for $10 million/yr. at this point in his career.

  76. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    admiralmark,

    Do we have a credible.source saying he is asking for 10m? I haven’t seen one.
    If he is asking for 9m and they settle on 8.25 or so that seems fair to me.

    But I still prefer the LT solution of going for 5 years at 6.75m

    Or going for 2 at 4.5m

  77. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    godot10,

    Scoring coming out of the lockout was inflated compared to a decade later due to more penalties being called.

    5v5 scoring wasn’t inflated.

    5v4 scoring was inflated due to all the penalties.

    If you are using 5v5 numbers to compare to Malkin, its fair.

    Here’s the data:

    Average NHL team 05/06
    2.04 5v5 Goals per game
    1.04 5v4 Goals per game

    Average NHL team 16/17
    2.20 5v5 Goals per game
    0.57 5v5 Goals per game

    I got the data from hockey-reference.

    Remember years ago when i commented on the repeatabilty of pp minutes is dependent on your team .IE. Ref/ league bias.
    Betman is a product of NBA were ref are told, by head of crews, to concentrate/ignore specific things for a game.

    Even with that influence even has been a great measure.
    But you still need situation means to gage performance.

    RNH is in the upper group of pvp centers for even production.

    Drais comp in 15-16 vs a PvsP standard with mid 1 st teamtes.

  78. OilSafety says:

    Scott Howsen with an official position… again.

    They must see something in him, right?

  79. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    The Price contract is to goalies as the rumoured McDavid contract is to centres. Resets the bar massively higher.

    In my mind the most underpaid position in hockey relative to highest demand from teams for said player is a #1D.

    When Karlsson re-ups that number is going to be eye popping. No reason he doesn’t get 100m over 8 years.

    And the salary bar will be raised sharply. GMs are doing it to themselves. The salary cap is just a guideline. Pay the elites.

  80. smellyglove says:

    Price 8 x $10.5. He is worth it. Top save percentage over last five years of goalers playing 160 games or more.

    ———————-

    Pardon for the rookie question, but can someone explain the drive to buy three years of UFA at the cost of driving up the average salary cap hit of a contract?

    Why wouldn’t one do a five year deal for Connor and Leon, if it brings down cap hit significantly. Sure at the end of 4-5 years you risk giving those players a raise, but they’re still very valuable commodities in the trade market.

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Draisaitl just finished his 21 year old year, so let’s compare that to Malkin’s 21 year old year.

    All data 5v5. All GF/60 is goals for on ice.

    Malkin
    GF/60 3.43
    GF/60 with Crosby 4.39
    GF/60 away from Crosby 3.03

    4 most common line mates: Sykora (574), Malone (550) , Crosby (341), Armstong (213)

    Draisaitl
    GF/60 3.07
    GF.60 with McDavid 3.67
    GF/60 without McDavid 2.28

    4 most common line mates: Maroon (735), McDavid (670), Lucic (209), Pouliot (113)

    I think its safe to say that so far Draisaitl is not in the Malkin level of players. That’s ok, very few are.

  82. blainer says:

    Optimism is like heroin:
    Hey LT, Do you have any connections with Werenka over at truperformance?

    After still seeing so much venom directed at Russell I recalled an article regarding Russell and how they view him.From the sounds of it they rate every play the player makes and they had some very positive things to say.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/analytics-expert-says-kris-russell-of-edmonton-oilers-is-underrated-and-one-of-nhls-top-defensive-d-men

    So they are saying he is just a cut below Vlasic but is a higher event player like Beachemin was.This has value as we saw by how much the coach played him and yes he gets killed in corsi but makes the right plays to prevent goals.Just wondering if you are able to get a little more info on how truperformance rates him?

    Truperformance also has an article that looks at why there was such an improvement over the last 2 seasons.
    http://truperformancehockey.com/news/OILERS%20TURNAROUND
    Looking there they ranked Russell as the 2nd best Dman by virtue of his defensive plays ….. he was 26% better overall from the 2nd best in 15/16 and that was pushed by making a 110% improvement in defensive play.

    This makes perfect sense to me. I won’t worry about Russell’s contact for at least another two years. WE need him now and he was one of our two best D during the playoff’s IMO.

    I don’t pay attention to most of the advanced stats on this player and I am willing to bet the OIL aren’t either. He is also very well like in the room and that also matters.

  83. bendelson says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great work WG!

    So… all things being equal (which of course they are not), if Drai pushes the river without McDavid this season, then those ‘middling’ numbers should get a boost and put the Oilers within range of the cup contending elites?

  84. admiralmark says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    admiralmark,

    Do we have a credible.source saying he is asking for 10m? I haven’t seen one.
    If he is asking for 9m and they settle on 8.25 or so that seems fair to me.

    But I still prefer the LT solution of going for 5 years at 6.75m

    Or going for 2 at 4.5m

    No there isnt any confirmation of his demands that’s why i add “IF he’s asking” to my comments. There’s no question in my mind that they should be going a shorter term deal and have him as 2C for a season(assuming he’s effective). The Oilers are also going to have to become adept at assessing the value of current and future linemates of McDavids. Maroons next contract is an example. Does he deserve $4-5 million now? I don’t think so.

  85. blainer says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If Puljujaarvi doesn’t speak english by now I’d trade him because something is wrong with his noggin, he’s been over here for a good while now.

    In his year end interview I can tell you his English hadn’t improved much.

    I also agree I would explore a trade with him and Drai if Drai doesn’t come around on his contract demands.. assuming he is asking for 9 plus.

  86. Professor Q says:

    Are we back to the Trade The Mall days?

  87. frjohnk says:

    bendelson:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great work WG!

    So… all things being equal (which of course they are not), if Drai pushes the river without McDavid this season, then those ‘middling’ numbers should get a boost and put the Oilers within range of the cup contending elites?

    I think the issue is who does he play with while trying to push the river away from McDavid.

    LW

    Maroon?
    I think he is stuck on McDavids hip all year.

    Lucic?
    In 210 minutes during the regular season, Drai scored 1.43 pts/60 with Lucic. They had a GF% of 41%.
    In the playoffs, these two got curbstomped ( less than 40 minutes though) in shot attempts, shots, scoring chances and shot attempts from the slot, 3 goals for, 3 goals against, though.
    Corsi is the only metric they looked good in during the season together. 52.7%.

    Cagguila?
    Drai scored 5 points in 70 minutes with Drake. Might be a good option.

    RW

    JP?
    Drai scored 2 points in 107 minutes with him. Maybe.

    Strome?
    If Draisaitl is playing center, that might mean that Strome is playing wing. Maybe with Draisaitl.

    RNH?
    If McDavid is 1C and Strome is 3C, no reason we could not see RNH and Draisaitl together on a line.

    I really believe a line of RNH and Draisaitl could take on the toughs AND push the river.

  88. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great work WG!

    So… all things being equal (which of course they are not), if Drai pushes the river without McDavid this season, then those ‘middling’ numbers should get a boost and put the Oilers within range of the cup contending elites?

    Getting killed by the other team’s best when McDavid is off the ice is the biggest goal/shot leak that I see.

  89. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    blainer: In his year end interview I can tell you his English hadn’t improved much.

    I also agree I would explore a trade with him and Drai if Drai doesn’t come around on his contract demands.. assuming he is asking for 9 plus.

    Really? I don’t get this. Having been interviewed for a podcast this spring I can tell you I can barely speak English when a microphone is in front of me.

    We are going to move JP because he didn’t speak English well on an interview?
    What the fuck am I reading here?

  90. jjmclean says:

    The Nuge line will take on the “toughs”. I think I would give that to Kassian over Slepy. I never thought of putting Leon on there though and giving MCDavid someone else. The Drake or a free agent?
    I am fine with no free agent hunting yet. Let’s get someone on the cheap in the next couple of weeks.
    Need to know the numbers on the top two first.

  91. Revolved says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great to see the numbers return!

    rickithebear,

    I strongly agree with your belief that defense is the most important skill for defenders. However, I believe the reason why you under value offense from defenders is because you are not taking into account that there are always two of them on the ice at 5×5. Offense from defense is not comparable to that from forwards because it is always in addition to whatever the forwards put out.

    Offense and defense are contributed to as a five man unit and thus are a sum of all the players on a team. The contributions to each are different from each position, but strictly defensive defenders demand greater offensive output from the forwards to get the same results. This is also the problem with forwards that can score, but miss their defensive assignments.

    The thing you are absolutely bang on about, though, is that defense comes cheaper than offense. So, particularly for defenders, paying for points is not a productive use of cap space, but it is also important to make sure all your forwards are competent checkers.

  92. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Really? I don’t get this. Having been interviewed for a podcast this spring I can tell you I can barely speak English when a microphone is in front of me.

    We are going to move JP because he didn’t speak English well on an interview?
    What the fuck am I reading here?

    These discussions come up here from time to time, idea being (I think) if you can’t learn English then maybe you aren’t that bright. Meanwhile, none of the people SAYING these things spends any time at all learning a language foreign to them. I can tell you the biggest problem learning a language (I knew some Dutch and German as a kid) is that if you don’t use it, you lose it. Jesse will get better at it as time goes along, teaching a new generation of Oilers fans that measuring intelligence correctly MAY depend on your actual intelligence. 🙂

  93. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide,

    I don’t think Tikkanen ever learned English. And some of his Finnish compatriots argued he never learned Finnish, either. He spoke Tikkalese.

    He also spoke hockey. That’s what matters here! If JP can speak hockey that’s all he needs to be able to do.

  94. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    LT and I talked about this a little bit yesterday on Saturday Sports Extra, in case anyone is interested:

    http://www.tsn.ca/radio/edmonton-1260/audio/saturday-sports-extra-july-1-hour-3-1.794595

    the part where LT and I are talking is about 22 minutes in, FWIW.

  95. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    If I’m Chia:

    Hey Connor, thanks for considering 8 years with us. That’s great. We could go that route and keep the roster as is. Or we could sign you to 5 X 10.5 and add Pat Marleau to the mix. He is interested in coming here and we could land him for 2 x6m, weaken the Sharks, and have a stronger roster. What say you?

    Great!

    Hey Leon, we are going 5 years with McDavid at 10.5m so we can add Patrick Marleau. Yeah. So that means less UFA years we would need to buy from you. So how’s 5 X 6.75 sound? It’s still a big number and you can hit paydirt on your first UFA deal when 26 and in your prime.

    That’s what I would do. Or something like it.

  96. Rocknrolla says:

    Carey Price at 10.5 AAV, that’s got to help Chia on his negotiations a little bit….he’s one of the top 5 players in the league, former MVP, and he didn’t get $13M…I know apples and oranges and prime of career, but…You guys think it makes any difference?

  97. oilfan17 says:

    blainer: In his year end interview I can tell you his English hadn’t improved much.

    I also agree I would explore a trade with him and Drai if Drai doesn’t come around on his contract demands.. assuming he is asking for 9 plus.

    I didn’t hear JP’s interview but was it the content of what he said or the accent and grammar that was bad? Finnish speakers, even highly educated ones, have trouble with both because, for example, Finnish has no articles or prepositions so they struggle with choosing to say’a’ or’the’before a noun.
    .
    Re Drai, his camp has specifically denied there was ever an ask for10M.(I don’t have the link, there were several.) Who put that out there is a good question–some twitterer trying to stir the pot? Chia trying to scare off offer sheets?

  98. Lowetide says:

    Rocknrolla:
    Carey Price at 10.5 AAV, that’s got to help Chia on his negotiations a little bit….he’s one of the top 5 players in the league, former MVP, and he didn’t get $13M…I know apples and oranges and prime of career, but…You guys think it makes any difference?

    Not imo, no. Oilers are buying prime McDavid, the best years of his life. The Price deal carries enormous risk for Montreal. In terms of real value, I can’t say there is anything in the NHL that will have more value than McDavid 2018-26.

  99. VOR says:

    Oilfan 17,

    It was Ryan Rishaug and he made it clear he was guessing (it was in a conversation with Jason Gregor I believe). Rishaug subsequently tried to unwind the rumor to no avail. It just took on a life of its own fueled by talk of an offer sheet and the most likely number for it being $9.18 over five years. That was the subject of a lot of speculation on Gregor’s show and was pushed hard by Struds.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rocknrolla:
    Carey Price at 10.5 AAV, that’s got to help Chia on his negotiations a little bit….he’s one of the top 5 players in the league, former MVP, and he didn’t get $13M…I know apples and oranges and prime of career, but…You guys think it makes any difference?

    I don’t think it helps at all, in fact, i think it helps solidify the inflation for the elite players.

    My biggest issue with Connor’s speculated cap hit is that its almost $3M higher than the current highest cap hit – almost a 25% premium.

    The Price contract has a cap hit about $2M higher than the previous highest cap hit for goalies – there is an inflationary premium at the top end in the exact same way.

  101. VOR says:

    NYCOIL,

    I am a non-native speaker of English. I had the great advantage of being born and growing up in Canada and going to school everyday in English and speaking it with my friends and teaching and coaching in it. Even so from time to time I get asked where I’m from. I just can’t master the Ah sound in Bag or Bank and people with a good ear for languages can hear that and other little quirks.

    By the logic presented here I must be incredibly stupid.

  102. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    VOR,

    Well we’re trading your ass to HFBoards then. Nice knowing ya!
    😉

  103. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Draisaitl just finished his 21 year old year, so let’s compare that to Malkin’s 21 year old year.

    All data 5v5.All GF/60 is goals for on ice.

    Malkin
    GF/60 3.43
    GF/60 with Crosby 4.39
    GF/60 away from Crosby 3.03

    4 most common line mates: Sykora (574), Malone (550) , Crosby (341), Armstong (213)

    Draisaitl
    GF/60 3.07
    GF.60 with McDavid 3.67
    GF/60 without McDavid 2.28

    4 most common line mates: Maroon (735), McDavid (670), Lucic (209), Pouliot (113)

    I think its safe to say that so far Draisaitl is not in the Malkin level of players.That’s ok, very few are.

    In Malkin’s 21 year old season 22 players had more than Draisaitl’s 77 points from this season. 7 players outscored Draisaitl this season. Maybe its a little closer than it seems?

  104. Chachi says:

    OilSafety:
    Scott Howsen with an official position…again.

    They must see something in him, right?

    Maybe they are still so pissed off about Nikitin they hired him just to fire him again?

  105. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Really? I don’t get this. Having been interviewed for a podcast this spring I can tell you I can barely speak English when a microphone is in front of me.

    We are going to move JP because he didn’t speak English well on an interview?
    What the fuck am I reading here?

    Maybe I should have been a little more clear as that may have come across as a bit harsh.

    What I am saying about the English issue is a lack of understanding by the players on how to be coached and where to be on the ice etc.

    For example I believe Steve Smith was trying to coach Martin Marincin early in his career and if my memory is correct Smith kinda joked after speaking at great length with MM only to realize MM did not understand a word he was saying. I am not exactly sure how it went but I seem to remember it went something like that.

    The language barrier is very important IMO and If I remember correctly Yakimov also struggled here even though the reason I think he went home is because he was home sick.

    Again learning the language for JP is very important but would I trade him because he hasn’t improved his English yet. No not now. But if his game doesn’t improve it may very well be related to his understanding of how he is expected to play.

    IMO it is extremely important for him to spend as much time as possible learning the language along with his training during this off season.

  106. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Draisaitl just finished his 21 year old year, so let’s compare that to Malkin’s 21 year old year.

    All data 5v5.All GF/60 is goals for on ice.

    Malkin
    GF/60 3.43
    GF/60 with Crosby 4.39
    GF/60 away from Crosby 3.03

    4 most common line mates: Sykora (574), Malone (550) , Crosby (341), Armstong (213)

    Draisaitl
    GF/60 3.07
    GF.60 with McDavid 3.67
    GF/60 without McDavid 2.28

    4 most common line mates: Maroon (735), McDavid (670), Lucic (209), Pouliot (113)

    I think its safe to say that so far Draisaitl is not in the Malkin level of players.That’s ok, very few are.

    Are you including playoff statistics in that? If NOT, why are they being left out? They give you 12 more games of data for Draisaitl and McDavid.

  107. Oilanderp says:

    If COL offers 9.8 mil as an offer sheet (just below the 4x1st round picks compensation) do you match it? 2 firsts one 2nd and one 3rd? If they offer 10 million do you match it? Four first round picks from dumpster fire city?

  108. VOR says:

    Oilanderp,

    I’d match either offer.

  109. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    If I’m Chia:

    Hey Connor, thanks for considering 8 years with us. That’s great. We could go that route and keep the roster as is. Or we could sign you to 5 X 10.5 and add Pat Marleau to the mix. He is interested in coming here and we could land him for 2 x6m, weaken the Sharks,and have a stronger roster. What say you?

    Great!

    Hey Leon, we are going 5 years with McDavid at 10.5m so we can add Patrick Marleau. Yeah. So that means less UFA years we would need to buy from you. So how’s 5 X 6.75 sound? It’s still a big number and you can hit paydirt on your first UFA deal when 26 and in your prime.

    That’s what I would do. Or something like it.

    Send this post to Chia !!

    Well said.

  110. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    blainer,

    Okay. Maybe he is trying. English isn’t an easy language to pick up, especially coming from Finnish where nothing is related at all. I was recently on Finnair and the Finnish announcements were impossible to understand. Usually one can pick up a few words.

    I think it is too soon to trade JP but we have to see what kind of offense he can bring. I do think having another Finn or two around to help him would be nice. Someone suggested Jussi Jokinen. If the price is right not a bad call.

  111. blainer says:

    VOR:
    NYCOIL,

    I am a non-native speaker of English. I had the great advantage of being born and growing up in Canada and going to school everyday in English and speaking it with my friends and teaching and coaching in it. Even so from time to time I get asked where I’m from. I just can’t master the Ah sound in Bag or Bank and people with a good ear for languages can hear that and other little quirks.

    By the logic presented here I must be incredibly stupid.

    Actually I place you among the very best posters here.

    Since you have arrived you have brought a lot to the table. It takes a lot of time and effort to provide a lot of your posts and I usually read them all. Much like WG’s who I am very happy to see has returned.

  112. Oilanderp says:

    Optimism is like heroin:
    Hey LT, Do you have any connections with Werenka over at truperformance?

    After still seeing so much venom directed at Russell I recalled an article regarding Russell and how they view him.From the sounds of it they rate every play the player makes and they had some very positive things to say.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/analytics-expert-says-kris-russell-of-edmonton-oilers-is-underrated-and-one-of-nhls-top-defensive-d-men

    So they are saying he is just a cut below Vlasic but is a higher event player like Beachemin was.This has value as we saw by how much the coach played him and yes he gets killed in corsi but makes the right plays to prevent goals.Just wondering if you are able to get a little more info on how truperformance rates him?

    Truperformance also has an article that looks at why there was such an improvement over the last 2 seasons.
    http://truperformancehockey.com/news/OILERS%20TURNAROUND
    Looking there they ranked Russell as the 2nd best Dman by virtue of his defensive plays ….. he was 26% better overall from the 2nd best in 15/16 and that was pushed by making a 110% improvement in defensive play.

    Thanks for this. Fascinating read. “Consistent subjectivity equals objectivity”: I’m sure entire philosophy careers have been made and/or unmade by such ideas. I remain lazy enough to not have to pick a side one way or the other. Still, extremely interesting!

  113. jtblack says:

    godot10,

    We can end the Malkin / Drai debate … Although I think Drai is amazing and that we should pay him; he is no Malkin. Malkin is All World. Probably doesn’t get his due because Sid is #5 all time .. Malkin has 2 scoring titles and 1 conn smythe. Could probably have all 3 conn smythes … he is a Monster .. As good as Ovie has been, a redo of that 2004 draft would have Malkin going #1 as he is a center.

    Malkin actually scores better when Sid is out … He’s a freako!

  114. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    blainer,

    Okay. Maybe he is trying. English isn’t an easy language to pick up, especially coming from Finnish where nothing is related at all. I was recently on Finnair and the Finnish announcements were impossible to understand. Usually one can pick up a few words.

    I think it is too soon to trade JP but we have to see what kind of offense he can bring. I do think having another Finn or two around to help him would be nice. Someone suggested Jussi Jokinen.If the price is right not a bad call.

    I agree and wonder if that is why they signed Pak.

    I actually wouldn’t trade JP either and after watching Chia’s presser I do believe we will get Drai under contract.

    Still we need a couple of upgrades.. I actually have faith Chia will have an excellent roster put together by opening night.

    I also expect a big improvement from Sleppy as he looked good and ready during the playoff run.

  115. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    blainer,

    Pak fulfilled an expansion draft requirement, I believe. Ticked two boxes perhaps.

  116. Oilanderp says:

    Cmon guys. It’s easy to learn a completely foreign language in just a week. All it takes it to be world renowned autistic savant Daniel Tammet.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPySn3slfXI

    His journey into Icelandic begins at 41:00, but the previous 41 mins is truly intruiging. He can complete complex calculations by observing how strange shapes fit (or don’t fit) together in his mind. The meat machine is a compelling device. Progression to the meat!

  117. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    speeds:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    LT and I talked about this a little bit yesterday on Saturday Sports Extra, in case anyone is interested:

    http://www.tsn.ca/radio/edmonton-1260/audio/saturday-sports-extra-july-1-hour-3-1.794595

    the part where LT and I are talking is about 22 minutes in, FWIW.

    – So I clicked on this link: I am kind of glad I did, but kind of sad: I had not ever heard LT”s voice before. Reading his blog for all these years, I kind of had my own persona and “voice” for LT

    – Its a good radio voice by the way LT!

    – also, didn’t know you speeds were famous too

  118. pocession charge says:

    OilSafety:
    Scott Howsen with an official position…again.

    They must see something in him, right?

    “He has an unbelievable eye for talent”

    -MacT

  119. VOR says:

    I have a simple idea for determining fair value for a contract for Leon Draisaitl, one that has nothing to do with Connor McDavid.

    Woodguy gave me the idea by pointing out that we should compare Leon’s 21 year old season to Malkin’s 21 year old season, an analysis he then performed.

    How about we inflate Malkin’s first regular contract by the increase in the cap.

    In today’s cap dollars Malkin’s first regular contract would be $11,487,000 per year.

    Then we adjust Malkin’s offence to reflect the slight difference in goals scored by the two teams (Pittsburgh 2008-2009 – 264, Edmonton 2016-2017 – 247) giving him 105 points to Draisaitl’s 77 and now we simply multiply $11,487,000 by 72.8% (77/105).

    This gives us a reasonable salary number of $8,362,536 for Draisaitl on a five year deal.

  120. pocession charge says:

    godot10: Russell gets to choose the teams, NOT the Oilers.It is easy to choose 10 or 15 teams that are impossible to be traded to.

    You don’t know what is possible or impossible, especially 2-3 years from now. I remember a year or two ago, you were advising everyone to go buy gold.

  121. Surly says:

    Leafs land Marleau…3 x 6.25

  122. pocession charge says:

    Surly:
    Leafs land Marleau…3 x 6.25

    Wow. Oilers dodged a major bullet. He’s a good skater and puts up decent boxcars, but that contract for a 38 year old, emotionless winger? No thanks.

  123. VOR says:

    I also thought those of you who are interested in the problems English Language Learners confront might find the following link interesting. It is about what is known as Dual Language Learning. It is told as a graphic novel. It allows young children to become fluent in four years instead of the normal 7 or 8 years.

    http://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2017/06/28/534396017/i-am-learning-ingl-s-a-dual-language-comic?utm_source=npr_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=20170702&utm_campaign=&utm_term=

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow – 3 years for Marleau at an inflated cap hit.

    He’ll help the Leafs in the immediate but that is a lot of term for a 38 year old that has shown recent signs of regression – generally regression at that age is pretty steep.

    I was thinking one year at $4.5-$5.5M – for that type of term, I’m shocked at the cap hit.

  125. godot10 says:

    pocession charge: You don’t know what is possible or impossible, especially 2-3 years from now.I remember a year or two ago, you were advising everyone to go buy gold.

    Gold bottomed in December 2015. Pretty much the only asset (okay, silver too) that is not in a bubble right now because of the $10 trillion conjured out of nothingness (and the trillions more in outright theft from savers by NIRP and ZIRP) in the last decade by the world’s central banks that have bid up the price of everything else to ridiculous levels.

    I’ll be right on gold too (and Russell’s contract, and #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach) Just like the dementor, Franson.

  126. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    +1. I wanted Marleau cause he’s versatile, can skate well and I think still score .. But when I heard the terms; NO THANKS! Ridic money … Toronto can have him .. The patient rebuild in Toronto starting to go the other way … Good chance they miss the playoffs .. East is tough and teams behind them got a lot better (Car, Phi, etc) …

  127. Soup Fascist says:

    pocession charge: “He has an unbelievable eye for talent”

    -MacT

    “I agree with MacT”
    – N. Nikitin

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t have any doubt that this contract will help TML this year if Marleu stays healthy (and he generally does) but there may be further regression and undoubtably regression during the term of the contract and, if Matthews, Marner and Nylander continue to progress and perform as Leaf fans think they will, the way contracts are going for elite players, they will be paying huge dollars for those three and Marleau’s $6.5M could cause a Lucic like effect to their cap.

  129. treevojo says:

    Just when I thought the Leafs were getting smarter they go and sign two senior citizens for too much money and too much term.

  130. McSorley33 says:

    Outstanding work by WG…..

    Need Drai to really step up and be a 2C and drive the bus ….

    Hard not to put money on the ‘under’ for the target of 103 points.

  131. leadfarmer says:

    Surly:
    Leafs land Marleau…3 x 6.25

    I don’t think that was a landing. Damn. Crashed and burned. 35+ with a NMC. They must think they’re contenders

  132. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: In Malkin’s 21 year old season 22 players had more than Draisaitl’s 77 points from this season. 7 players outscored Draisaitl this season. Maybe its a little closer than it seems?

    Is that 5v5 points or total?

    I was clear that you could only compare 5v5 points as the extra PP’s inflated point totals compared to today.

  133. flyfish1168 says:

    Luke Gazdic a phlegm. Hope gets lots of ice time.

  134. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    Oilfan 17,

    It was Ryan Rishaug and he made it clear he was guessing (it was in a conversation with Jason Gregor I believe). Rishaug subsequently tried to unwind the rumor to no avail. It just took on a life of its own fueled by talk of an offer sheet and the most likely number for it being $9.18 over five years. That was the subject of a lot of speculation on Gregor’s show and was pushed hard by Struds.

    Friedman mentioned 10MM too, that’s when it got legs.

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Are you including playoff statistics in that?If NOT, why are they being left out?They give you 12 more games of data for Draisaitl and McDavid.

    Just regular season.

    Gimme a minute and I’ll add playoffs

  136. Scungilli Slushy says:

    fifthcartel:
    I disagree that Strome at center sets up for more balance. I think Draisaitl at center and Strome at RW is a better option.

    IIRC, Storme hasn’t played much center since being in the NHL. It sounds like Capuano played Nelson as the C and Weight didn’t really change that.

    I wouldn’t either. Mid season trying to make the playoffs while changing the system isn’t a great time to let guys settle in. The main thing is that he knows how to play centre. He doesn’t have to learn as Caggiula had to.

    The question will be whether he wants to play a two way game and push to become competent at face offs which will be key for him. He has top level tools, needs to take a step. Chiarelli said they had been after him for a while, they aren’t flying blind as Chiarelli was in the east and I’m sure has contacts.

    Reinhart wasn’t int he NHL so Chia hadn’t seen him since his draft year scouting I took things. Different, still not a sure thing.

  137. LMHF#1 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t have any doubt that this contract will help TML this year if Marleu stays healthy (and he generally does) but there may be further regression and undoubtably regression during the term of the contract and, if Matthews, Marner and Nylander continue to progress and perform as Leaf fans think they will, the way contracts are going for elite players, they will be paying huge dollars for those three and Marleau’s $6.5M could cause a Lucic like effect to their cap.

    It’s Lou. He never lets the cap get him down.

  138. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t have any doubt that this contract will help TML this year if Marleu stays healthy (and he generally does) but there may be further regression and undoubtably regression during the term of the contract and, if Matthews, Marner and Nylander continue to progress and perform as Leaf fans think they will, the way contracts are going for elite players, they will be paying huge dollars for those three and Marleau’s $6.5M could cause a Lucic like effect to their cap.

    Didn’t Jersey along with Lou get find for circumventing the CAP and lost a draft on the Kovachuk situation. But league won’t have the balls to find the beleaves if Lou finds a way to bury Marleau’s contract.

  139. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: We cannot continue to overpay every player that needs a new contract, no matter how important they are. At some point, we need a player to sign a reasonable and/or an actual value contract (i.e. Klef, Larsson, etc.).

    Nice comment. Chiarelli has the hammer many ways at this point. Leon would make many GM’s act like they had a teen crush. He is big, he looked dominant at times, he scored a lot, he can skate.

    He has tremendous trade value to teams that still have cap and the internal budget. There are few players that are so good that they can’t be replaced. I don’t think he wants to, but he could replace the offense and skill. As I’ve said I’d trade him for Mackinnon, the value to the Av’s is the increased offense and a big offensive centre.

    To the Oilers an elite replacement who shoots right with more speed, a better cap, and the fact that he would likely really take off on the Oilers.

    Leon’s camp really has no leverage at his age and RFA status. Arbitration would likely favour the OIlers as well. Chiarelli is mature and won’t overreact, but this just creates bad blood, and from disputes we’ve seen memories are often long as in Weber and Johansen.

  140. fifthcartel says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    I agree. Not a fan of betting on a player having success in a role he hasn’t really had success before.

  141. Scungilli Slushy says:

    stephen sheps: Just out of curiosity, how many languages do you speak? If it is multiple languages, are any of them completely different than English in just about every conceivable way like, say, Arabic or Russian or Mandarin? Or perhaps shall we say Finnish?

    The Finnish language is unlike just about any in the world – the closest comparable languages are Hungarian and Estonian, but that’s just in terms of historical roots rather than actual word structure.

    Jesse is a 19 year old kid, who, like most Europeans probably speaks two or three languages already, but in his case it’s likely Finnish and Swedish given the education system in his country. Learning new languages at any age is no easy task, especially a language like English with its many exceptions, strange rules and clumsy syntax that feels and sounds nothing like Finnish at all. I don’t care whether what you said was intended as a throw-away joke or not, but you can’t say something isn’t right with a teenager’s head if he hasn’t learned a language in a year. It takes time, patience and practice, not to mention confidence. Not a cool comment, even in jest.

    Sorry to offend, yes a joke.

    I’m offended by political correctness, so we’re even 🙂

  142. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Are you including playoff statistics in that?If NOT, why are they being left out?They give you 12 more games of data for Draisaitl and McDavid.

    Including playoffs for both players.

    All 5v5.
    Drai overall GF/60 3.12
    Drai with McDavid 3.61
    Drai away from McDavid 2.47

    Malkin overall GF/60 3.21
    Maklin with Crosby 4.06
    Malkin away from Crosby 2.92

    Changes it a bit, but not too much.

    Also,

    RE: Leon in the playoffs

    We’ve been looking at PDO for almost 10 years.

    We know not to pay for a PDO heater.

    Drai in the playoffs 5v5: (193 minutes)

    Drai overall GF/60 3.42
    Drai SH% 12..94%
    Drai PDO 1087

    Drai away from McDavid in playoffs (81 minutes)
    GF/60 3.66
    SH% 16.13%
    PDO 1122

    Have we been looking at this stuff for 10 years and are still coming to the conclusion that “I’d pay $10MM for a player because I think his 1122 PDO heater is real”?

    Seriously, look at this.

    Crosby, McDavid and Kane are among the best 3 players at achieving a goal share (GF%) above their shot share (CF%)

    Here’s their difference between CF and GF over the last 2 years:

    Last two year CF% vs GF%
    McDavid 52.4% CF; 58.0% GF = 7.3%
    Crosby 54.1 CF%; 58.5% GF = 4.4%
    Kane 51.6% CF; 56.0% GF = 4.4%

    Thank The Gords for McDavid. Amen.

    This year CF and GF with Drai:

    Draisaitl regular season with McDavid 51.3% CF; 53.6% GF = 2.3%
    Draisaitl regular season without McDavid 47.9 CF; 44.2% GF = – 3.7%

    Draisaitl playoffs with McDavid 51.2% CF; 66.7% GF = 15.5%
    Draisaitl playoffs without McDavid 42.2% CF; 71.4% GF = 29.2%

    That is a heater to end all heaters.

    John Druce and Fernando Pisani look at Leon’s heater and say “damn boy, you hot!!”

    Good on Mike Liut trying to use it to get Leon paid. That’s his job.

    We’re smart enough to know that Leon can’t turn corsis into goals at 4x the rate of McDavid and 6x the rate of Crosby.

    We have been looking at this stuff for almost 10 years. We know better than to buy into the playoff results as “what he’s capable of”

    It was a wonderful heater and a sight to behold, but not more than that.

    He should take $7.5MM and be pretty happy.

  143. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Is that 5v5 points or total?

    I was clear that you could only compare 5v5 points as the extra PP’s inflated point totals compared to today.

    Total. The amount of powerplays given out back then also had an effect on 5v5 scoring given you could not get away with a lot of the hooking and holding you can now. 21 year old Drai would have feasted on NHL d-men who weren’t allowed to hook and hold at will. Imagine McDavid’s totals in that type of NHL! I guess one would also have to acknowledge there was less 5v5 time available back then because of the penalties…

  144. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Including playoffs for both players.

    All 5v5.
    Drai overall GF/60 3.12
    Drai with McDavid3.61
    Drai away from McDavid 2.47

    Malkin overall GF/60 3.21
    Maklin with Crosby4.06
    Malkin away from Crosby 2.92

    Changes it a bit, but not too much.

    We’ve been looking at PDO for almost 10 years.

    We know not to pay for a PDO heater.

    Drai in the playoffs 5v5: (193 minutes)

    Drai overall GF/60 3.42
    Drai SH% 12..94%
    Drai PDO 1087

    Drai away from McDavid in playoffs (81 minutes)
    GF/60 3.66
    SH% 16.13%
    PDO 1122

    We haven’t been looking at this stuff for 10 years and are still coming to the conclusion that “I’d pay $10MM for a player because I think his 1122 PDO heater is real”

    Seriously, look at this.

    Crosby, McDavid and Kane are among the best 3 players at achieving a goal share (GF%) above their shot share (CF%)

    Here’s their difference between CF and GF over the last 2 years:

    Last two year CF% vs GF%
    McDavid52.4% CF; 58.0% GF = 7.3%
    Crosby 54.1 CF%; 58.5% GF = 4.4%
    Kane 51.6% CF; 56.0% GF = 4.4%

    This year CF and GF with Drai:

    Draisaitl regular season with McDavid51.3% CF; 53.6% GF= 2.3%
    Draisaitl regular season without McDavid 47.9 CF; 44.2% GF = – 3.7%

    Draisaitl playoffs with McDavid 51.2% CF; 66.7% GF = 15.5%
    Draisaitl playoffs without McDavid 42.2% CF; 71.4% GF = 29.2%

    That is a heater to end all heaters.

    John Druce and Fernando Pisani are embarrassed for him.

    Good on Mike Liut trying to use it to get Leon paid.That’s his job.

    We’re smart enough to know that Leon can’t turn corsis into goals at 4x the rate of McDavid and 6x the rate of Crosby.

    We have been looking at this stuff for almost 10 years.We know better than to buy into the playoff results as “what he’s capable of”

    It was a wonderful heater and a sight to behold, but not more than that.

    He should take $7.5MM and be pretty happy.

    I didn’t ask you to look at the playoffs in isolation. I just asked you to look at ALL the games. You could include Draisaitl’s games from last season too. It would make the sample size greater. I’m not asking you to weight playoffs games more. I’m just suggesting they be weighted the same…a game is a game. Including last year, would include many more games away from McDavid.

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: I didn’t ask you to look at the playoffs in isolation.I just asked you to look at ALL the games.You could include Draisaitl’s games from last season too.It would make the sample size greater.I’m not asking you to weight playoffs games more.I’m just suggesting they be weighted the same…a game is a game.Including last year, would include many more games away from McDavid.

    I did both.

    I included playoff games in the whole sample and then I broke them out.

  146. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I did both.

    I included playoff games in the whole sample and then I broke them out.

    Ha. Got to love when other people want you to do the work for them in order to prove their point. Nice work on the website Darcy! Thanks to you, Ganesh, Derek, and Zsolt for all your hard work.

    Leon’s long term number will be $8M something. Malkin adjusted to today’s cap would have been $11M something. That is a fair number for Leon. VOR’s flux capacitor threw out $8.3M and I suspect he will be very close.

    Leon did go on a heater to end all heaters in the playoffs but he was good during the regular season, too (as opposed to Druce and Pisani). His 5v4 production should remain good to great and I expect his 5v5 numbers to improve based on experience/growth (and no more Pouliot). There is no denying this guy’s talent — the passing and vision are second to none, and he’s a good finisher. He also has strong work ethic and a desire to want to improve his game. Bottom line, you get him signed to an 8 year extension, post haste!

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