STANDING BENEATH THE MARQUEE MOON

This is Ryan Strome. Peter Chiarelli brought him in as a cost effective replacement for Jordan Eberle, or so he hopes. It’s a bet, just like everything else in life. That sounds cynical but it’s true. Based on all we know, the Islanders got the better player and the Oilers saved $3.5 million. We have a tendency to throw shade on deals we don’t like and then move on, never bothering  to go back and review our own thoughts one year later. At least for today, let’s correct that mistake.

  • Lowetide, July 2 2016Looking back on the week, and examining the back story via Elliotte Friedman’s excellent 30 Thoughts, I think the error was in not getting P.K. Subban. I understand the cap number was fierce, but that doesn’t make it impossible. There would certainly be pressure on the value end—more Brandon Davidson style roster players—but he did a nice job with Patrick Maroon and this Drake Caggiula fellow could fit the description. Opportunity missed, and you can only trade Taylor Hall once. You can tell me the ask was too much, and that may be true, but the trade happened at the eleventh hour, not at five minutes to midnight. For me, we can make an argument that PC pulled the trigger on the Larsson deal too soon. Source

The rumored ask at the time was Leon Drasaitl, a defenseman (Oscar Klefbom or Darnell Nurse, never did get confirmation) and a flip of first-round picks (Oilers sending No. 4 to Montreal for No. 9 overall). One year on, would you trade Leon, Oscar and Jesse Puljujarvi for Subban and Mikhael Sergachev? Humility is a good idea in all things, especially when luck can have an enormous impact. As it turns out, Leon alone may pack a $9 million annual wallop by fall.

CURRENT 50-MAN

  • As of this instant, Joey Laleggia is going to be fighting with Ty Rattie, Mitch Callahan and Joe Gambardella for the final forward spot.
  • Mark Fayne has made the team.
  • If you want unicorns: Caggiula-McDavid-Strome; Lucic-Draisaitl-Slepyshev; Maroon-Nuge-Puljujarvi. What do you think?

SCOTT HOWSON

The problem with the world today is there isn’t enough oxygen to have a conversation. If I say “Scott Howson” someone says “Nikitin! Nuff said” and then the conversation drifts to something else. Howson should have been fired on merit for that crazy Nikitin trade/contract, but his resume suggests some real quality in amateur procurement.  When he was GM, the Blue Jackets drafted Cam Atkinson in the sixth round in 2008, David Savard in the fourth round in 2009, Ryan Johansen in the first round in 2010, Boone Jenner in the second round in 2011. I’m not saying it’s a brilliant signing but he does seem to have some acumen in amateur scouting and development. I’m not absolutely clear on his new role but it sounds like he has been assigned the task of finding the next Conor Sheary. We can never be sure but this might be an astute acquisition based on his skill set. Can we have a conversation about it? Hope so.

PREDICTION

When Leon Draisaitl finally signs there will be some free agents left and Peter Chiarelli probably wades in. I’ll guess he signs Brandon Pirri and Cody Franson, but don’t discount the senior set. Chiarelli doesn’t have an issue with deploying older players (Mark Recchi, Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla) in feature roles. Here are the top ten octogenarians currently available:

  1. Jaromir Jagr (45) 82gp, 16-30-46
  2. Shane Doan (40) 74gp, 6-21-27
  3. Matt Cullen (40) 72gp, 13-18-31
  4. Jarome Iginla (40) 80gp, 14-13-27
  5. Mark Streit (39) 68gp, 6-21-27
  6. Andrei Markov (38) 62gp, 6-30-36
  7. Brian Gionta (38) 82gp, 15-20-35
  8. Brian Campbell (38) 80gp, 5-12-17
  9. Francois Beauchemin (37) 81gp, 5-13-18
  10. Mike Fisher (37) 72gp, 18-24-42

Chances are these men return to their former teams, but I can see the Oilers plucking a player from this group late in free agency. Shocked to my shoes Markov is still out there, there have been dozens of inferior blue signed since July 1 and this guy is still waiting? That’s crazy. Daniel Winnik also remains available, one of my favorite players. Best goalie available? Probably Jhonas Enroth.

PUCK IQ!

Congratulations to all who are responsible for the Puck IQ site and really there should be equal acclaim here. The numbers are sweet music, but so is the navigation and it appears the site was ready for us to ascend upon it like a pack of hungry coyotes. Well done men! Now, let’s throw this giant ball of oil out the window!

OILERS FORWARDS VERSUS 5X5 ELITES

We’ll learn these metrics together, unless you are ahead of me then screw you for making me remedial. Here are Oilers forwards from 2016-17 (over 100 minutes) against elite opposition. The first column is percentage of overall time-on-ice against elites, showing RNH played the most (as a percentage of his own icetime) against the toughs. Elite TOI explains itself, the top six F’s are clear based on these numbers. DFF is Dangerous Fenwick, share of playing field against the elites, showing McDavid rocking everyone’s world and Jordan Eberle sailing strong. Rel (or what I understand as Rel) shows four men in the black, Nuge in the red (suggesting he cannot thrive with 42 percent against elites) and the youngsters where we should have predicted they would be based on youth and inexperience.

A couple more things: Ryan Strome is (from left to right) 29.0 percent, 235.02 time on ice, 41.10 DFF and -3.20 Rel. Closest match on the Oilers board? Zack Kassian. Also, when the boys get the wowys we should look for pockets of opportunity at all three levels (elite, middle, gritensity). We may find that Letestu-Kassian are do do do looking out my back door and a worthy fourth-line duet. Puck IQ info is here.

MARKET SHIFT

Connor McDavid’s $13.25M times eight deal should be coming down the pipe later this week. It’s already having an impact and means the top end talent is going to get paid beginning with the second contract. I am no expert, but Peter Chiarelli may want to get Leon signed earlier than late, because some of these deals are going to be monstrous. These two deals are for foundation players, and that means the next deals are going to be easier in 2018 and 2019. At this point, I expect we’ll see Leon come in around $9 million, Nuge traded and veteran free agents signing for $1 million all over the land. The world as we know it is changing. Pray for Chiarelli. Light a candle. Do it.

 

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

165 Responses to "STANDING BENEATH THE MARQUEE MOON"

  1. fuzzy muppet says:

    No way Draisaitl gets 9 million. Kuznetsov just set his bar at 7.8. They are nearly identical in production

  2. Ducey says:

    It was my impression from Howsons interview on the Oilers site that he was in charge of development of the Oilers prospects not playing in Bakersfield. He will travel around and check on them to help make sure they stay on track.

    Sort of took on some portion of Bucky’s role.

  3. speeds says:

    What’s the reason to voluntarily give Draisaitl 9M for 5 RFA years and 3 UFA years (I’m assuming for 8yrs in your mind there LT?) in a world where:

    Tarasenko – 8 years (4RFA/4UFA), 7.5M AAV
    Gaudreau – 6 years (5RFA**/1UFA), 6.75M AAV
    Scheifele (outscored Draisaitl this year, without playing on McDavid’s line) – 8 years (4/4), 6.125M AAV
    Monahan 7 years (4/3), 6.375M AAV
    Kuznetsov – 8 years (2/6), 7.8M AAV

    **First RFA year not technically an RFA year.

  4. Ducey says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    No way Draisaitl gets 9 million.Kuznetsov just set his bar at 7.8.They are nearly identical in production

    Plus we are dealing with Leon’s RFA years. I remember when that mattered.

  5. DBO says:

    The signing yesterday kinda sets the market for Draisatl I think. But being Oilers, I expect he will get a bit more.

    Draisatl 8 years $8 mill per
    McDavid 8 years $13.25 mill per
    Nuge dealt for Faulk (I’ve posted this enough times I have convinced myself)
    Stafford 2 year deal for $1.5 per
    Fayne and a 2nd Rd pick in 2018 for Neal

    Maroon. McDavid. Caggulia
    Lucic. Draisatl. Slepeshev
    Neal . Strome. Stafford
    Khaira. Letestu. Kassian
    Puljujarvi. Pakarinen

    Klefbom. Larsson
    Russell. Faulk
    Nurse. Benning
    Gryba

  6. leadfarmer says:

    Sorry LT, I think Simpson may be higher on the depth chart than Fayne or they will bring in another player like Franson. I dont think Fayne makes the team

  7. frjohnk says:

    “One year on, would you trade Leon, Oscar and Jesse Puljujarvi for Subban and Mikhael Sergachev?”

    No.

    JP has the same value as Sergachev or its close.
    Subban > Klefbom but not by much. Subban is a number 1 Dmen. Klefbom entering number 2 territory
    Draisaitl tips the scales so much, the scale broke.

  8. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    What’s the reason to voluntarily give Draisaitl 9M for 5 RFA years and 3 UFA years (I’m assuming for 8yrs in your mind there LT?) in a world where:

    Tarasenko – 8 years (4RFA/4UFA), 7.5M AAV
    Gaudreau – 6 years (5RFA**/1UFA), 6.75M AAV
    Scheifele (outscored Draisaitl this year, without playing on McDavid’s line) – 8 years (4/4), 6.125M AAV
    Monahan 7 years (4/3), 6.375M AAV
    Kuznetsov – 8 years (2/6), 7.8M AAV

    **First RFA year not technically an RFA year.

    I think it’s a perfect storm for sure. Kuznetsov signed exactly one season after Leon (I think that’s right) in terms of career, and his most recent season fell off from his fantastic year (2015-16 he posted 77 points in 82 games). Chiarelli gets Leon for $7.5M I’ll co cart wheels. Do you think that getting LD done at that number is a reasonable expectation?

  9. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Sorry LT, I think Simpson may be higher on the depth chart than Fayne or they will bring in another player like Franson.I dont think Fayne makes the team

    PLEASE don’t be sorry. At no point in a conversation among friends should the word sorry come up. Unless you spill coffee on my penis, then a grunt of sorrow is allowed. 🙂

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Now, let’s throw this giant ball of oil out the window!

    I love you so much.

  11. Todd Macallan says:

    And with yours and Woodguy’s help LT, we’re gonna get that chicken.

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Todd Macallan:
    And with yours and Woodguy’s help LT, we’re gonna get that chicken.

    How did we not call our site Kramerica?

    Missed opportunity.

  13. anjinsan says:

    How did Howson do developing Schultz? Of course, Schultz is soft and net negative, right? And I don’t mean Sergeant “Apple Strudel, Hogan!” Schultz, but the ‘worthless hoser’ with two cups in the last two playoffs, who just earned a three year $5.5 million/year contract from a team that dearly needs to be cap conscious. Howson was complicit in our getting (bloated down by) Nikitin, Fayne, Ference, Purcell, and Pouliot.

  14. speeds says:

    Lowetide: I think it’s a perfect storm for sure.Kuznetsov signed exactly one season after Leon (I think that’s right) in terms of career, and his most recent season fell off from his fantastic year (2015-16 he posted 77 points in 82 games). Chiarelli gets Leon for $7.5M I’ll co cart wheels. Do you think that getting LD done at that number is a reasonable expectation?

    Yes, it’s within the range of reasonable. If you can’t, you maybe start talking about Kucherov’s contract, prob 2 years instead of 3?

  15. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Until the rumors started I still thought Drai for 7m was high. His puck protection mixed with skill is a perfect compliment to McDavid. But at 9M, I hope for a trade like the rumoured MacKinnon and Barrie one. A cost controlled star is better than a younger, emerging one if Connor is locking up the rumoured 13+.

    If the 2 salaries are accurate then I think this team is stuck for the next 3 or 4 years being good, but waiting for the cap to rise enough to flesh out a roster to be a favorite. A tough pill to swallow.

  16. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Drai has shown he can carry a line for all of one game. He’s clearly a talent oozing potential, but if he hit 3 posts that game I feel there would be a bit more skepticism if he is worth that much.

  17. jonrmcleod says:

    I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the value of 5v5 numbers, especially Corsi. So this morning I looked at PP goals for and against, as well as save percentage (all situations).

    Of the top 16 teams for save percentage, 13 were playoff teams. Probably this is a mix of limiting dangerous chances and having a goalie that’s playing well.

    PP/PK goal differential and save percentage looks to have had a lot to do with Toronto, Columbus, and Edmonton’s jump up the standings.

    Without looking at the numbers, Buffalo and Florida (both in the bottom 8 in the standings) must have been really bad at goal scoring 5v5 because their PP/PK goal differentials and save percentages were very good.

    Probably none of this means very much, but I found it a bit interesting.

  18. Lowetide says:

    speeds: Yes, it’s within the range of reasonable. If you can’t, you maybe start talking about Kucherov’s contract, prob 2 years instead of 3?

    Two years best, right? Then you can maybe get him long-term before the storm.

  19. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: PLEASE don’t be sorry. At no point in a conversation among friends should the word sorry come up. Unless you spill coffee on my penis, then a grunt of sorrow is allowed.

    I feel like I’m raining on your parade. Its like its 2004 and I’m saying Pou isnt going to make it kind of thing. I’d be very happy if Fayne could regain his career I just think at this point they are letting his contract run its course

  20. Bag of Pucks says:

    The post implies we should unanimously be in favour of that Drai, KBom, Puli for Subban and #9OV trade in hindsight.

    I am not.

    In fact, I have finally arrived at the point where the question must be asked, “Why do you hate Leon so much, LT?’

  21. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer: I feel like I’m raining on your parade.Its like its 2004 and I’m saying Pou isnt going to make it kind of thing.I’d be very happy if Fayne could regain his career I just think at this point they are letting his contract run its course

    Oh no, I’d honestly be thrilled to see Dillon Simpson win a job outright. Always cheered for him, and have been impressed with his ability to get a little better each season.

  22. Todd Macallan says:

    Hoping for some coverage of the Dev Camp scrimmage today. If not a live stream (doubtful), perhaps at least some astute Jasperites on twitter as in years past.

    Especially curious to see/hear how Killer Yam is doing, how Benson is recovering and how the goalies look. For what it’s worth (not much) I’d stake my reputation on that Skinner kid, was ecstatic with that pick.

  23. Wild Bill Hunter says:

    Howson should be used like a canary. Any time you are thinking about acquiring a player, sent out Scott and have him scout the guy. If Howson says “Yes.” then avoid that guy like the plague…if he says”No.” then sign the guy immediately. Even better, send both MacTavish and Howson to evaluate the guy and come back with a consensus because together they are almost infallible in their ability to get player evaluations wrong.

  24. Philosophil says:

    Quote from article: We have a tendency to throw shade on deals we don’t like and then move on, never bothering to go back and review our own thoughts one year later. At least for today, let’s correct that mistake.

    Always the humble analyst, LT. However in this case, let’s ensure the wheat and the chaff are harvested in the right order. I understood (through the reports of others, not my own dogged research) the only reason that trade did not take place was CBJ choosing Pierre Luc Dubois, meaning JP dropped into PC’s lap and put the brakes on fast moving trade. Otherwise, i think this deal gets consummated.

    My point here is let’s not give PC more credit that he deserves. The trend is to lose out on high end value trades, Ebs for Strome being the latest, and i don’t believe the Subban for D, 1st swaps ++, was quashed due to better judgement, just circumstance. Thank the Lord for this one.

  25. wheatnoil says:

    I think the issue with Howson is not the person but the process. With him back, it seems the only executives who actually were given responsibility for the Decade of Darkness were Tambellini and MacGregor. Now I don’t think Howson should pay for the sins of the cabal but it just speaks to the fact that the process hasn’t changed. Bring in Chiarelli but everyone else just shuffles deck chairs. Howson “moves on” until you make the playoffs and it’s okay from a PR perspective to bring him back. Lowe only handles the “business side” but comes along on alll the major trips and sits at the draft table. It seems like a process that may be concerned with success but not at the expense of making sure your buddies have a soft landing spot. It’s more indication that the Oilers are run more as a group of friends, an Old Boys Club, and less like a multi-million dollar business.

    Howson himself I don’t mind. We talk about the Nikitin contract but every human on the planet has made a bad bet, and so have I many times in my armchair GMing. It just seems like wild optics to me.

    Make the playoffs one year, re-build a bit of good will and suddenly:
    1) Bring the band back together in the executive
    2) Sign Lowe’s son (imagine doing that when they were out of the playoffs, and note that I have nothing against Keegan himself)
    3) All the verbal becomes about internal development, young guys growing in to roles, wait and see if Nurse & Benning are top 4, and not about acquiring NHL players.

    So, for me, it’s not Howson. It’s that the process seems more like the same-old same-old after just one playoff year.

  26. soup says:

    Lowetide, you do such a great job on this site. Thanks

    I think I’ve read that the rumoured $13.23m for McDavid already assumes inflation in the cap so as not to cripple the team from being competitive. Based on that, some questions:

    – If the Leon number winds up being $9m or so, is that too much to add to the McDavid number in terms of having a real shot at being competitive over the life of the McDavid contract?
    – If the Leon number is too high, would you consider calling Sakic and suggesting Leon straight up for Duschesne and Barrie?
    – Would Joe consider it?

  27. wheatnoil says:

    speeds: Yes, it’s within the range of reasonable. If you can’t, you maybe start talking about Kucherov’s contract, prob 2 years instead of 3?

    I think two’s a good bet. Those long-term deals the Oilers make after high shooting percentage seasons don’t seem to end well. (See: Eberle and Horcoff)

    History suggests that if Drai signs that $9M deal, he’ll be run out of town before it’s done for being a $7M dollar player instead of a $9M one.

  28. smellyglove says:

    “I’m not absolutely clear on [Howson’s] new role but it sounds like he has been assigned the task of finding the next Conor Sheary. We can never be sure but this might be an astute acquisition based on his skill set. Can we have a conversation about it? Hope so.”

    ————–

    Yes, we can have a conversation about this. I’m going to title it, “one degree of suck”, named after the well-known “six degrees of separation” concept.

    Scott Howson, architect of one of the worst NHL clubs in history, is again re-employed by the Edmonton Oilers. Days after Kevin Lowe’s son, also an architect of one of the worst NHL clubs in history, became employed by the Edmonton Oilers.

    Keegan Lowe is also a member of the 2011 Oil Kings hockey team, one of 60 Canadian Hockey League Teams, of which the Edmonton Oilers have acquired 8 (eight!) players from the 2011 roster alone. Not the least of which was Griffin Reinhart, who cost #15+#33 draft picks and did not contribute to the team, other than to take what could have otherwise have been a non-eligible expansion draft slot. Reinhart was subsequently lost to Vegas.

    (Is this coming to a point soon? Yes.)

    It has been suggested that Chiarelli made this trade on the basis of advice from ex-Oil King GM, Bob Green, who pulled the wool over ‘ole Boston Pete’s eyes. Chiarelli, brought in to ‘right the ship’, with all of the old boys still sitting around the table, probably with Katz’s personal cell numbers in their back pockets.

    So there you have it. People in crucial evaluation and decision-making roles in the Edmonton Oilers management have historically been and continue to be appointed on the basis of connection over merit. You can argue they no longer have any influence. But then Chia flips what are effectively two 1sts in a deep draft for a #7 D-man. And then the team hires the former GM’s son.

    This isn’t about Howson in isolation, LT. That group of people (Lowe, MacT, Howson) were responsible for creating one of the worst professional sports franchises in North American history.

  29. fifthcartel says:

    Whenever you have the chance to acquire a PK Subban, you do it.

    If you could have got it for Draisaitl, Nurse, and a swap of firsts, that’s an easy sell for me.

  30. Bag of Pucks says:

    To be fair, didn’t Howson also demonstrate acumen as a capologist during his first run as Asst. GM with the Oil? If memory serves, that was one of the things that put him on CBJ’s radar screen.

    You see this a lot in business. A guy is not well suited for the top chair, but give him a seat at the big boy table and he’s a rational voice in the room that can contribute in a couple critical areas (amateur scouting, cap management), but for Gord’s sake, keep him away from sharp scissors, the bank account logins, and FA defencemen.

  31. Philosophil says:

    wheatnoil,

    +1. Buchburger leaving for NYI opened a position for new personnel and ideas. Other than the recent visit by one Hayley Wikenheiser (sp?) to development camp, i don’t see anything new with the re-hiring of Scott Howson.

    That being said, no issue with Todd’s boy attending the development camp. There are many lesser known players there, and Todd M himself was a junior player i followed with the Saskatoon Blades growing up, meaning he has some hockey pedigree. We took Brind’amour in the ’17 draft for similar reasons, and possibly McPhee last year (in addition to the Vegas connection).

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: PLEASE don’t be sorry. At no point in a conversation among friends should the word sorry come up. Unless you spill coffee on my penis, then a grunt of sorrow is allowed.

    The question that must be asked: Why is your penis out near his coffee?

    Personally, I think Fayne deserves a shot to make this team and flourish – he was a solid NHL player before he came to Edmonton and, frankly, he didn’t perform that poorly here. He has been a good solider accepting his AHL role and mentoring down there without complaining (his millions collected doesn’t hurt I’m sure).

    Can this man not play 3RD in the NHL? He’s played well above the pay grade before with success.

    Simpson is a nice prospect, I remember his showing well in his game last year but my preference would be for him to be top pairing in Bakersfield until a call-up is required.

    I’m rooting for Fayne – a comeback of sorts for this man would be huge for the team this year.

  33. Bag of Pucks says:

    Fair to assume that these two mega contracts are being done in unison with the Connor and Leon camps in near constant communication? That’s the way I’d do it if I was the players wanting to build something together but still maximize their pieces of the pie, and honestly from the Oilers perspective, it’s probably not a bad strategy to say’ “here’s what we can afford to spend on both of you over 8 years, how can we best split this to keep everyone happy and onboard?”

  34. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    If by, ‘he’s been a gold soldier,’ you mean, he contracted trench foot and is now largely immobile, I couldn’t agree more.

  35. Dominoiler says:

    Lowetide: PLEASE don’t be sorry.

    Haha, the ol grunt of apology for coffee dicking someone..

    8|

    I don’t know about all of you, but that nuge line looks putrid, like ground up hamburger that just keeps getting repeatedly smashed w the tenderising hammer, over n over n over.. i just can’t come up w a better combination of players that makes that line any better..

    I’m thinking,

    Maroon/Cagg – McD – Drai
    Lucic – nuge – Pulj/Shelp
    Maroon / Cagg – Strome – Pulj/Shelp/Kass
    Khiara – testu – Pulj/Shelp/Kass

    But i personality kinda hate strome as a centre; that third line is def soft as butter.. dunno

  36. npanciroli says:

    “Montreal initially asked for Leon Draisaitl, the No. 4 pick at Friday’s draft and more. That “more” included either Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse, plus something else.”

    Where are we getting the swap in picks from? Don’t remember that.

    Draisaitl + Klefbom/Nurse + 4th is insane.

    Also I am actively shopping Draisaitl if it really is looking like 9 million.

  37. Chachi says:

    If MacTavish still has a job, why not hire Howson as well? MacTavish is a pretty low bar of achievement to clear. They probably already offered Tambellini a job two years ago, but he is still mulling it over.

  38. jm363561 says:

    Lowetide:
    Excellent article up on ON about Leon and $9 million
    https://oilersnation.com/2017/07/03/is-leon-draisaitl-worth-9-million/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Yep, pulls pretty much everything together (except for Shooting%). Everything seems to point to $7.5m’ish being the number for Leon. My guess would be Chia is hanging on to this and Leon’s team looking for more. It could be a long Summer (and Autumn).

  39. Todd Macallan says:

    I would’ve taken Hemmer for that price. Damn Habs.

  40. Bag of Pucks says:

    Today’s thread sparks thoughts of an interesting category poll: who were the Oiler worsts of all time? (worst mgmt hire, worst HC hire, worst draft pick, worst trade, worst FA signing?)

    I’d go with the following:

    Worst mgmt hire: Tambellini
    Worst HC hire: Eakins (dishonourable mention: George Burnett)
    Worst draft pick: Jason Bonsignore (Nail a close second)
    Worst trade: Pronger (want to start a decade of suck? This is how you do it) Btw Gretzky was a sale not a trade.
    Worst FA signing: Ference. Man, did MacT dodge a bullet on Clarkson.

  41. Lowetide says:

    Hemsky to Habs at $1M is a dandy deal.

  42. fifthcartel says:

    Titles Scott Howson has held with the Oilers:

    AHL GM
    Assistant GM
    Pro Scout
    Senior VP of Hockey Operations
    VP of Player Personnel

    This is kinda funny.

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide:
    Hemsky to Habs at $1M is a dandy deal.

    Maybe. I suspect Ales is held together with bandaids and bubblegum at this point.

  44. Mr. D. says:

    Do you think they have 5 mil for Faulk? It was Russell of Faulk, not both.

    DBO:
    The signing yesterday kinda sets the market for Draisatl I think. But being Oilers, I expect he will get a bit more.

    Draisatl 8 years $8 mill per
    McDavid 8 years $13.25 mill per
    Nuge dealt for Faulk (I’ve posted this enough times I have convinced myself)
    Stafford 2 year deal for $1.5 per
    Fayne and a 2nd Rd pick in 2018 for Neal

    Maroon. McDavid. Caggulia
    Lucic. Draisatl. Slepeshev
    Neal . Strome. Stafford
    Khaira. Letestu. Kassian
    Puljujarvi. Pakarinen

    Klefbom. Larsson
    Russell. Faulk
    Nurse. Benning
    Gryba

  45. Lowetide says:

    Grigorenko to CSKA Moscow.

  46. Pouzar says:

    Elliotte Friedman Retweeted
    Mike Heika‏Verified account @MikeHeika 1m1 minute ago
    More
    Hearing Stars will announce Radulov signing soon. Five years, just over $6 million per.

  47. jtblack says:

    LT: Great stuff again. Congrats to the Puckiq crew … that site looks great …

    “If you want unicorns: Caggiula-McDavid-Strome; Lucic-Draisaitl-Slepyshev; Maroon-Nuge-Puljujarvi. What do you think” – I like Maroon on Connors wing and Cagg as 3LW … But speaking the same language … Strome has been gifted a career opportunity here … hope he finds whatever mojo he had when he put up 50 points ..

    I keep Drai, Oscar and Jesse all day ..but I am not a PK fan …

    I am not a fan of nepotism; I think it looks poorly for the organziation … and all the other kids that bust their ass to try and make an NHL or AHL team … If a person earns the invite on merit, fine, but that is usually not the case … Also, from the kids perspective I think they would be better off in another organization (ie: Benning) …

    Oilers need to add 1 or 2 depth D before October … remember, the D is thin now, but it is also wise to expect 1 or 2 injuries before Sekera gets back …

  48. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    yak will be next

  49. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: Oh no, I’d honestly be thrilled to see Dillon Simpson win a job outright. Always cheered for him, and have been impressed with his ability to get a little better each season.

    I hope that Chia treats this offseason like a trade deadline which the Sekera injury allows him to do. I would much rather sign Franson to a one year contract than spend our second rounder at the trade deadline to acquire a Franson.
    I do think they are going to give Simpson a chance. I think they are happy with his development

  50. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar:
    Elliotte Friedman RetweetedMike Heika‏Verified account @MikeHeika1m1 minute ago
    MoreHearing Stars will announce Radulov signing soon. Five years, just over $6 million per.

    If they can get average goaltending, this is the team that will be most improved.

    They were injured last year, not unlike how we were injured in 15-16.

    Benn and Seguin are one of the best duos in the league.

    Have added Methot, Bishop, Hanzel and looking to add Radulov.

    Klingberg and Spezza are very good complimentary players and the Stars have some nice young players.

  51. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m fairly surprised no team was interested in him enough to get him. Solid faceoffs numbers too.

  52. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk: If they can get average goaltending, this is the team that will be most improved.

    They were injured last year, not unlike how we were injured in 15-16.

    Benn and Seguin are one of the best duos in the league.

    Have added Methot, Bishop, Hanzel and looking to add Radulov.

    Klingberg and Spezza are very good complimentary players and the Stars have some nice young players.

    They should be back in the playoffs next year. Central should have a legit chance to claim both wild card spots.

  53. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The question that must be asked: Why is your penis out near his coffee?
    How do you stir your’s?

  54. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk: If they can get average goaltending, this is the team that will be most improved.

    They were injured last year, not unlike how we were injured in 15-16.

    Benn and Seguin are one of the best duos in the league.

    Have added Methot, Bishop, Hanzel and looking to add Radulov.

    Klingberg and Spezza are very good complimentary players and the Stars have some nice young players.

    They are in desperate need of defenseman and to solve that problem they are adding forwards. Wonder which Bishop they get. Niemi was a sieve but Lehtonens numbers last year werent much worse than Bishop considering how poor defensively Dallas was compared to Tampa

  55. npanciroli says:

    Contracts this offseason are nuts. Get guys on the cheap later.

  56. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk,

    Their forwards are good but:

    Methot Klingberg
    Lindell Johns
    Hamhuis Honka

    Has a hell of a lot of tire fire in its own end

  57. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Montreal:
    Uses best trade chip (Sergachev) to get a scoring winger.
    Spends 10.5m X 8 years on Price
    Loses Radulov to Dallas on what looks like a pretty reasonable deal for his skill level.
    Replaces Radulov with Hemsky coming off a major injury.
    Still no 1C and no more assets to obtain one.

    The fan base must be pissed. Beware incoming offer sheet to Draisaitl.

    I think speeds is right on the Tarasenko comparable. I think you add a premium for the C position and inflation.
    8 X 8.25m is my number.

    I would rather go the RFA contract route. 5×6.75m

    Handcuffing the team with a high cap hit on both McDavid and Drai deals means the team can’t compete until the back half of those deals.

    To me going 5 years on lower cap hits on both means you can sign a lot more support with the 4 or 5million saved

  58. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    leadfarmer,

    Bishop will.be better than Niemi.
    Honka is the real deal
    Methot isn’t that bad

    A return to the playoffs I think. In fact I think it’s Chicago that will.be on the bubble.

  59. Todd Macallan says:

    As per twitter (Igor Eronko), Grigorenko NOT signed yet, will decide tomorrow btw 2 NHL and 1 KHL offer. Hope we offered him a show me deal for a year.

  60. leadfarmer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    leadfarmer,

    Bishop will.be better than Niemi.
    Honka is the real deal
    Methot isn’t that bad

    A return to the playoffs I think. In fact I think it’s Chicago that will.be on the bubble.

    Methot is fine especially when he can do the defensive side of things and Klingberg can do the offensive side of things. Anyone is better than Niemi. Honka while looking promising has a lot to learn in his own end. The west is tough. That defensive corp looks poor compared to Nashvilles and Wilds. Bishop is building quite an injury history for himself

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Hemsky to Habs at $1M is a dandy deal.

    Yes, I”m very disapointed – I think Hemmer would have been perfect if healthy – he could play up and down the lineup and provide shelter to the inexperienced right wingers.

    Do you think that PC had no interest or Hemmer just chose the Habs?

  62. admiralmark says:

    I don’t remember but wasn’t there a rumour after the playoffs that Draisaitl and McDavid were willing to give somewhat of a hometown discount in their next contracts? Now maybe that was accurate but now that the NHLPA and agents have gotten to them they have had a change of heart? Or maybe the rumour was never true in the 1st place? Or maybe the rumour was true and most of the #’s we are hearing are not accurate and are simply being drummed up by different sources for different reasons? Who knows. But i’m going to take the angle that McDavid and Draisaitl did offer a discount to some degree. Hell why not? Somebody has to.

    So here it goes McDavid signs a 8 year deal at 10+10+11+11+12+12+13+13= $92 Million $11.5/yr Cap Hit . Leon gets inked on a 8 year deal at 6+6+7+7+8+8+9+9= $60 Million $7.5/yr Cap hit. So combined Connor/Leon have a combined Cap of $19/yr Cap. Obviously huge bonuses involved to make them lockout proof etc. But both players are making concessions and taking less then they would command on the open market. Why does this happen? 3 reasons. 1) They both want to win a cup together and are willing to make a sacrifice to increase their chances. 2) They both make plenty of endorsements in Canada and back in Germany. 3) They are both very very VERY nice young men.

    Having said all that if I am completely wrong and Connor signs for $13.25 and Leon signs for $9 Million… Then they are still very very VERY nice men that are getting what they deserve.

  63. Muletrain97 says:

    Well, I sure hope we can get Drai signed sealed and delivered! Yet, if we need to trade him, how about Drai to Col for Mackinnon and Barrie, shoot, throw in a 2nd round draft pick to sweeten the deal. Thoughts?

  64. godot10 says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    No way Draisaitl gets 9 million.Kuznetsov just set his bar at 7.8.They are nearly identical in production

    Washington has cap issues. Edmonton doesn’t. Ovechkin isn’t earning $13.25 million. McDavid is.
    McDavid isn’t 67% better than Draisaitl ($8 million). McDavid isn’t even 50% better than Draisaitl ($9 million) but I think Draisaitl will settle for $9 million.

    Connor is resetting the league salary scale. But there are also peer salary scales, and relative within the team salary scales. Even at $9 million Draisailt will be closer to Lucic in salary than he is to McDavid, and by quite a bit.

  65. godot10 says:

    speeds:
    What’s the reason to voluntarily give Draisaitl 9M for 5 RFA years and 3 UFA years (I’m assuming for 8yrs in your mind there LT?) in a world where:

    Tarasenko – 8 years (4RFA/4UFA), 7.5M AAV
    Gaudreau – 6 years (5RFA**/1UFA), 6.75M AAV
    Scheifele (outscored Draisaitl this year, without playing on McDavid’s line) – 8 years (4/4), 6.125M AAV
    Monahan 7 years (4/3), 6.375M AAV
    Kuznetsov – 8 years (2/6), 7.8M AAV

    **First RFA year not technically an RFA year.

    The reason is that the OIlers decide to pay McDavid $13.25 million. At $9 million, McDavid is still being paid 50% more than Draisaitl. At $8 million, it would be a ridiculous 67% more.

  66. Richard S.S. says:

    According to the Cap Friendly site, the Oilers have:
    $17,928.000.00 in Cap Space:
    $7,525,000.00 in Potential Performance Bonuses:
    also to be considered:
    $5,500,000.00 in LTIR – Sekera.
    $4,000,000.00 as Sekera Replacement – Russell – Last defenseman signed.

    How much Cap Space is available? It should be enough to do whatever Chiarelli wants to do. McDavid (2,850,000) will earn full bonuses. Puljujarvi (2,500,000) could earn his bonuses. Slepyshev (600,000), Caggiula (425,000), Benning (300,000) and Nurse (850,000) probably won’t earn their bonuses. Calculations must be precise to avoid overages next year. This year, they are fine.

  67. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    leadfarmer,

    Yup, I didn’t say it was better than Nashville or Minny or even the Blues’ but they have the best top line of that group.

    Think
    Nashville
    Minnesota
    Dallas
    St Louis
    Chicago

    All in the mix for a playoff spot.
    Tight division.

    In the Pacific Anaheim and Calgary look to have improved on paper. Oilers worse on paper but better through player growth, hopefully.

    San Jose lost Marleau.

    Could see both wild cards coming from the Central.

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ****SPAM*****

    ICYMI:

    New Because Oilers:

    How good are teams without their star player on the ice? Does this matter a little or a lot?

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/07/a-look-at-nhl-teams-results-with-and.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Thanks as always to LT for letting me promote my work here.

  69. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    leadfarmer,

    Yup, I didn’t say it was better than Nashville or Minny or even the Blues’ but they have the best top line of that group.

    Think
    Nashville
    Minnesota
    Dallas
    St Louis
    Chicago

    All in the mix for a playoff spot.
    Tight division.

    In the Pacific Anaheim and Calgary look to have improved on paper. Oilers worse on paper but better through player growth, hopefully.

    San Jose lost Marleau.

    Could see both wild cards coming from the Central.

    I look at CHI’s Dcorps of Keith and a bunch of meh and think I might pick em to miss the playoffs.

  70. speeds says:

    godot10: The reason is that the OIlers decide to pay McDavid $13.25 million.At $9 million, McDavid is still being paid 50% more than Draisaitl.At $8 million, it would be a ridiculous 67% more.

    What does that have to do with anything?

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: The reason is that the OIlers decide to pay McDavid $13.25 million.At $9 million, McDavid is still being paid 50% more than Draisaitl.At $8 million, it would be a ridiculous 67% more.

    McDavid isn’t a Draisaitl comp and any percentage between their salaries means nothing.

  72. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    ****SPAM*****

    ICYMI:

    New Because Oilers:

    How good are teams without their star player on the ice? Does this matter a little or a lot?

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/07/a-look-at-nhl-teams-results-with-and.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Thanks as always to LT for letting me promote my work here.

    GO PROMOTE IT ON YOUR OWN SITE, PUCKIQ.COM

  73. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I look at CHI’s Dcorps of Keith and a bunch of meh and think I might pick em to miss the playoffs.

    Their ability to keep signing guys like Sharp for pocket change might keep them in the hunt but yeah, that window is closing

  74. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I look at CHI’s Dcorps of Keith and a bunch of meh and think I might pick em to miss the playoffs.

    See above, I did the same 😉

  75. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    leadfarmer,

    Bishop will.be better than Niemi.
    Honka is the real deal
    Methot isn’t that bad

    A return to the playoffs I think. In fact I think it’s Chicago that will.be on the bubble.

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    wheatnoil: GO PROMOTE IT ON YOUR OWN SITE, PUCKIQ.COM

    BUT MORE PEOPLE COME HERE IN A HOUR THAN HAVE BEEN AT PUCKIQ.COM IN ITS ENTIRE HISTORY

  77. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Woodguy:

    Great minds and all….

  78. Chachi says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    leadfarmer,

    Honka is the real deal

    Julius may be small, but he’s a Honka Honka burnin’ love.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Washington has cap issues.Edmonton doesn’t.Ovechkin isn’t earning $13.25 million.McDavid is.
    McDavid isn’t 67% better than Draisaitl ($8 million).McDavid isn’t even 50% better than Draisaitl ($9 million) but I think Draisaitl will settle for $9 million.

    Connor is resetting the league salary scale.But there are also peer salary scales, and relative within the team salary scales.Even at $9 million Draisailt will be closer to Lucic in salary than he is to McDavid, and by quite a bit.

    Edmonton does not have cap issues for the 2017/18 season but it absolutely does for the 2018/19 season and beyond.

    As of right now, with a assumed 2.5% cap increase next year, its unlikely that the Oilers can even re-sign all of its existing roster free agents and stay cap compliant let alone actually acquire a new contract.

  80. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy v2.0: BUT MORE PEOPLE COME HERE IN A HOUR THAN HAVE BEEN AT PUCKIQ.COM IN ITS ENTIRE HISTORY

    PERHAPS MORE PEOPLE SHOULD VISIT PUCKIQ.COM!! IT’S A GREAT SITE FOR ALL YOUR ADVANCED STAT NEEDS!!

  81. Genjutsu says:

    godot10: The reason is that the OIlers decide to pay McDavid $13.25 million.At $9 million, McDavid is still being paid 50% more than Draisaitl.At $8 million, it would be a ridiculous 67% more.

    I don’t the it’s ridiculous at all. As much as I like Leon, and he did have a season to remember, he hasn’t shown the consistency to earn 9 per.

    His numbers this year were zoomed by the best player on earth and last year by one of the best point producers in the NHL.

    Though situation to be in for the team no matter what, however this is sure a nice problem to have.

    Remember in the past at this time of year talking about the merits of a Belanger signing?

  82. bendelson says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I look at CHI’s Dcorps of Keith and a bunch of meh and think I might pick em to miss the playoffs.

    If and when you are ready to place a friendly wager on that Darcy… you be sure to let me know!
    (Nice to see you back)

  83. rickithebear says:

    I just read mucurdy say that comp, and zone start do not matter.

    What is the most important stat when looking at wins?
    Goal differential!
    I kind of want my teams to be positive.

    I ran 10 years of seasonal means.
    For comp, teamate, zone start.
    So clearly there will be the same goal diff mean for all situations!
    Facing upper first comp with sub 40% zone start yeilds the same goal diff as facing bottom 4 th comp with 60% plus zs.

    Guess what !
    That is utter bull shit!
    There is a 45 goal dif in means if team is held constant.

    No affect may means you are not choosing the correct data to define play affect.

    There 2 distinct variance in how forward teamates and defensive teamates are defend.
    Same as comp.

    Zone start has given means for situations.
    And when comp and teamates are held constant it is not the same for all.

    The process of wowy, situational mean and def analysis is not to find the player within one std deviation of a given mean situation.
    It is to eliminate the below 1 std deviation players or change thier situation.
    And find the above 1 std deviation players.

    Though each value may have a diffrent impact.
    For corsi based metrics until you identify the 0 chance corsi.
    All claims are useless

    Making sure they have repeatability of play.

    Examples
    Larsson is one of the elite 1st comp hd dmen for his side.
    Russell is 1 of the 2 truly elite shot supression Dmen
    Sekera is an elite hd dman facing 2 nd comp or lower.

    I look forward to using the database!

  84. kooler says:

    My guess…

    Connor 8 yr 12.125
    Draisatl 8 yr 7.8

  85. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy v2.0: BUT MORE PEOPLE COME HERE IN A HOUR THAN HAVE BEEN AT PUCKIQ.COM IN ITS ENTIRE HISTORY

    Well congrats to you and G and everybody else.

    I’d also like to thank you and G and the boys for all your hard work. I’ve really learned at lot from you guys.

    I love the site and have been and continue to be grateful for all the hard work and knowledge shared.

    Cheers

  86. rickithebear says:

    Goalies have a standard hit shot rate.
    Which increases with height of goalie.

    Dmen do influence corsi with blcks, forced miss %, closed shot %.
    But also the weighted hd reduction.

    And

    Cummulative expected.

  87. godot10 says:

    How can Draisaitl in good conscience accept $7.5 when Connor is making $13.25 and Lucic is making $6?

    Chiarelli made both of those deals. The midpoint between those two deals is just over $9.5 million.

  88. Todd Macallan says:

    Yamamoto from Gambardella, down 2-1 currently after goals from Safin and Desharnais for the opposing squad. Hopefully video later!

  89. rickithebear says:

    godot10:
    How can Draisaitl in good conscience accept $7.5 when Connor is making $13.25 and Lucic is making $6?

    Chiarelli made both of those deals. The midpoint between those two deals is just over $9.5 million.

    Go back 2 years and look at the % of cap at contract signing for players in his range.
    Of Even production and overall production.
    For 15-16
    For 16-17
    For cummulative 15-16 to 16-17

    Mcdavid has 2 comparables.
    Croasby aprox 17.2%
    Ovechkin aprox 16.9%

  90. Bobcaygeon says:

    Lowetide,

    How long before Yakupov joins him? Seriously, the kid could use some development and hopefully back in the NHL at 26.

  91. classict says:

    godot10:
    How can Draisaitl in good conscience accept $7.5 when Connor is making $13.25 and Lucic is making $6?

    Chiarelli made both of those deals. The midpoint between those two deals is just over $9.5 million.

    One is a UFA deal, the other is a deal for possibly the best player in the entire league. RFA deals are based on comparables, neither of those two guys compare.

  92. Bank Shot says:

    fifthcartel:
    Titles Scott Howson has held with the Oilers:

    AHL GM
    Assistant GM
    Pro Scout
    Senior VP of Hockey Operations
    VP of Player Personnel

    This is kinda funny.

    Howson has been with the Oilers from 1994-2017 minus 2007-2013.

    Where’s our Cam Atkinson in that time period?

    I wont give Howson or any of the other old boys (Mact,Lowe) credit for having an eye for talent because they have been employed for the Oilers for almost 20 years and in that time the Oilers have never drafted a late round gem. Guys like Davdison and Brodziak arent that.

    In that period of time they probably should have been able to hit a late round homerun through sheer luck.

    When is the last time the Oilers pulled off a trade for an unheralded ahl/nhl guy that went on to be a core calibre player?

    I think Glencross. And that was Howson giving him away! Followed by Lowe giving him away. The only time those guys actually stole a player they didnt even realize what they had.

    There is zero point in bringing back an old employee unless he is an absolute star. Howson wasnt that at all.

    Better to get some fresh ideas into the org as their old ideas didnt and never will work.

  93. Bobcaygeon says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Montreal:
    Uses best trade chip (Sergachev) to get a scoring winger.
    Spends 10.5m X 8 years on Price
    Loses Radulov to Dallas on what looks like a pretty reasonable deal for his skill level.
    Replaces Radulov with Hemsky coming off a major injury.
    Still no 1C and no more assets to obtain one.

    The fan base must be pissed. Beware incoming offer sheet to Draisaitl.

    I think speeds is right on the Tarasenko comparable. I think you add a premium for the C position and inflation.
    8 X 8.25m is my number.

    I would rather go the RFA contract route. 5×6.75m

    Handcuffing the team with a high cap hit on both McDavid and Drai deals means the team can’t compete until the back half of those deals.

    To me going 5 years on lower cap hits on both means you can sign a lot more support with the 4 or 5million saved

    Anything over 7.8 and I would trade Draisaitl to Colorado for MacKinnon, use the extra cap space to balance the rest of the roster.

  94. Mr. D. says:

    This is why you have a couple of true elites and a great suppOrting cast. Problem is that as the young supporting cast matures they demands increases that the team can’t afford. It will happen here in 2 years. It’s very important to have effective role playing low cost guys who can contribute.

    Woodguy v2.0: I look at CHI’s Dcorps of Keith and a bunch of meh and think I might pick em to miss the playoffs.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    How can Draisaitl in good conscience accept $7.5 when Connor is making $13.25 and Lucic is making $6?

    Chiarelli made both of those deals. The midpoint between those two deals is just over $9.5 million.

    Vetran acquired in the external UFA market vs. RFA coming off his ELC with only one full season in the NHL.

    Lucic is a non-comparable.

  96. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: McDavid isn’t a Draisaitl comp and any percentage between their salaries means nothing.

    When Doing the puck IQ thing anything surprise you? Or Anyone?

    Any way to do WOWY type DFF%? Like get rid of McDavid icetime which screws Oilers analysis in a good way.

  97. Alpine says:

    Bobcaygeon: Anything over 7.8 and I would trade Draisaitl to Colorado for MacKinnon, use the extra cap space to balance the rest of the roster.

    Does COL do that? For some reason I don’t see them wanting to pay more for what is only a slightly better player.

  98. Todd Macallan says:

    Oilers sign C Brad Malone, sounds like the AHL vet centre we were waiting for. Lots of NHL experience, guessing possible call up during the season should injuries arise.

    Also, Yamamoto with what sounds like 1G, 2A and linemate Gambardella with 2G, 1A so far in scrimmage.

  99. Bobcaygeon says:

    Alpine,

    Not sure? I just used the PUCKIQ and given the time Draisiatl played with McDavid I’m really not sure Draisaitl is better.

    However, maybe Colorado wants a big center, but that would be my ask if I was the Oilers.

  100. VOR says:

    To every one involved with puck iq congratulations. It is beautiful, functional and useful.

    As for. Draisaitl I am reading a lot of posters I admire and respect, some of who I know negotiate for a living discussing Draisaitl’s contract like it is an arbitration and they are sitting on the arbitration panel. It isn’t an arbitration it is a negotiation.

    So for example Woddguy (and welcome back) tells us McDavid isn’t a comparable for Draisaitl. If this was an arbitration that would likely be true. However, in a negotiation anything one or the other party puts on the table is now part of the negotiation.

    In other words if Draisaitl compares himself to McDavid then McDavid’s contract is very much part of the Draisaitl contract negotiation. Whether it is absurd or not is irrelevant. Not saying Draisaitl is doing that. We have no way of knowing one way or the other.

    What we do know is this negotiation may not be as one sided as RFA deals usually are. By at least some accounts Draisaitl entered this negotiation pissed off. It is also worth noting that there is nobody available in free agency who could replace Draisaitl. Additionally, either Peter Chiarelli way over reacted or there is a real possibility of an offer sheet.

    An offer sheet floating out there makes other teams nervous to trade for Draisaitl. So frankly do the rumours of ludicrous contract demands. At the moment I am suspicious that it would be difficult to get fair value for Draisaitl in a trade.

    Let me recap, no free agent coming to replace him even if his dollars came free and no trade for fair value on the horizon. So what does Peter Chiarelli do if Leon Draisaitl digs in his heels and holds out?

    Does anybody here think the Oilers make the playoffs without Draisaitl, or at least an equal infusion of talent? Right now we fans can all play hardball with Leon but when the regular season starts I will be curious to see how many of you crack. I will also be curious to see how long before Peter Chiarelli folds. As the playoffs fade away and the lottery looms the fans will get ugly and the GM will be under enormous stress.

    Now maybe Draisaitl doesn’t have the fortitude for the long standoff but if I were GM I certainly wouldn’t be betting on it.

  101. flyfish1168 says:

    godot10:
    How can Draisaitl in good conscience accept $7.5 when Connor is making $13.25 and Lucic is making $6?

    Chiarelli made both of those deals. The midpoint between those two deals is just over $9.5 million.

    I really feel without Milan the Oilers would not be as good. Intimation is an important factor. Who is willing to step it up in the fisticuf department when needed and also throw a nasty check. With Milan we have one of the best that can can also potentially pot 20 goals. As much as I love Leon he doesn’t intimated anyone in those department. You can make an argument that Milan probably made Leon’s job a little easier. That is something that can’t be measured. Fighting maybe in time phased out but until they do it is still part of the game.

  102. Chachi says:

    “Brad Malone” sounds like a fake name.

  103. Gerta Rauss says:

    Chachi:
    “Brad Malone” sounds like a fake name.

    Joe Mayo..?

  104. Optimism is like heroin says:

    leadfarmer,

    one thing that stood out to me was rnh goal share vs all 3 levels of comp and they sucked hard

    42.9 vs elite, 45.2 middle and only 46.2 vs gritensity

  105. NomoreLoweMcT says:

    I hope Draisaitl signing is no more than $ 8max but suspect with McD’s projected signing he will get closer to $9.5 which means Chiarelli really needs to find some cheaper but productive talent to round out this team. I really like Nuge but suspect he will be in the way out next year. Flames made huge improvement to their team and if Monahan & Gaudreau start strong, may well finish ahead of the Oilers this year. Oilers have no tested backup for Talbot, and if he were to go down, & with Sekera out for 1/2 the year , this would be a huge problem for this team. The Oilers better hope all players perform at, or above last years level.

  106. Richard S.S. says:

    Leon Draisaitl is coming off his ELC. How much of his bonuses did he earn? His first two years of his ELC, there were still question about what he was. Whatever excuses people want to make, he finished the 2015-16 season (his last 52 games) poorly and started the first 20 games of last season poorly as well.

    Leon Draisaitl is starting to show he’s around a point-a-game guy. Unfortunately those guys don’t earn $8.0 – $9.0 Million a year. They’re not worth it. Leon needs to be more than a point-a-game guy, much more. He needs to be unstoppable. Right now he’s not that good. Can he be? Maybe, but until he is, he’s not worth more than $6.0, maybe $6.75.

  107. Ducey says:

    Bobcaygeon:
    Lowetide,

    How long before Yakupov joins him? Seriously, the kid could use some development and hopefully back in the NHL at 26.

    Unless development involves putting a chip in his head to give him hockey sense, an optical range finder so he can hit the net, and an exterminator for the bees, he is done.

  108. russ99 says:

    Thought we would have learned from last year:

    Eberle may or may not be a better player than Strome, but Stome is a better fit with this team and with what the coaching staff is looking for from its players.

    I wonder how long fans are going to have sour grapes that favorites are gone, the untenable concept of “unicorns” on playoff teams is gone, the management of this club doesn’t place importance on the same things than you do, that it’s not interested In acquiriing the same players your are, etc.

    Fact is we have an exciting playoff hockey team that has a very good shot at winning 100 games again come September when Leon is signed and he few rosters holes on defense and the wing are filled.

  109. JDI says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thought I’d point this out:

    After doing a search for players, I select ‘all’ on the page, and copy that into a spreadsheet, but there’s no way I can select the categories at the top of the columns.

    Not sure if that’s going to be a problem for visitors to your site or not.

    Also, great work and congrats!

  110. Richard S.S. says:

    Oilers signing: Brad Malone.
    LW/C, 28, 6’2″ 207.
    Probably 4LW/C.

  111. Professor Q says:

    rickithebear: Go back 2 years and look at the % of cap at contract signing for players in his range.
    Of Even production and overall production.
    For 15-16
    For 16-17
    For cummulative 15-16 to 16-17

    Mcdavid has 2 comparables.
    Croasby aprox 17.2%
    Ovechkin aprox 16.9%

    You also have to look at how much the cap was expected to rise. Context is extremely important when doing such comparisons.

    Back when Crosby and Ovechkin and Malkin signed, everyone was sure the cap would rise $4-6 million per year.

    Not the case today.

  112. leadfarmer says:

    Did stats.hockeyanalysis.com shut down now too?

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    wheatnoil: PERHAPS MORE PEOPLE SHOULD VISIT PUCKIQ.COM!!IT’S A GREAT SITE FOR ALL YOUR ADVANCED STAT NEEDS!!

    I THINK THAT’S A GREAT IDEA

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Did stats.hockeyanalysis.com shut down now too?

    No, both of David’s sites are up.

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR,

    Thanks Vor.

    Thanks to everyone for their well wishes.

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson: If and when you are ready to place a friendly wager on that Darcy… you be sure to let me know!
    (Nice to see you back)

    I’ll wait until October, but if the roster is as as it stands I’m interested

  117. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’ll wait until October, but if the roster is as as it stands I’m interested

    When Doing the puck IQ thing anything surprise you? Or Anyone?
    Any way to do WOWY type DFF%? Like get rid of McDavid icetime which screws Oilers analysis in a good way.

    I’ll post this again

  118. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: When Doing the puck IQ thing anything surprise you?Or Anyone?

    Any way to do WOWY type DFF%?Like get rid of McDavid icetime which screws Oilers analysis in a good way.

    WOWY are coming.

    I’ve had access to puckiq since January or so, and nothing is really surprising anymore.

    FLA running 3 pairs with almost the same TOI vs Elite Forwards was surprising.

    Pysyk and Petrovic doing very well in those minutes was a surprise too.

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JDI:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thought I’d point this out:

    After doing a search for players, I select ‘all’ on the page, and copy that into a spreadsheet, but there’s no way I can select the categories at the top of the columns.

    Not sure if that’s going to be a problem for visitors to your site or not.

    Also, great work and congrats!

    We’ll have a download csv button soon.

    Also, you can grab the categories by “overgrabbing” towards the top of the page, you just have to delete out the other crap that will appear on your spread sheet.

    I do it all the time.

  120. leadfarmer says:

    Optimism is like heroin:
    leadfarmer,

    one thing that stood out to me was rnh goal share vs all 3 levels of comp and they sucked hard

    42.9 vs elite, 45.2 middle andonly 46.2 vs gritensity

    Yeah when looking at goal share in general looking at Russell with Nuge 27.8% goalshare and Pous 38%. Cagullas 33% and Sleppys 20% really stick out. He’s over 50% with almost everyone else and over 60% with multiple players but McDavid creates a lot of that 44% without
    I think other than 1C McDavid and 4C Latestube i hope to see a much better season from 2C and 3C

  121. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: WOWY are coming.

    I’ve had access to puckiq since January or so, and nothing is really surprising anymore.

    FLA running 3 pairs with almost the same TOI vs Elite Forwards was surprising.

    Pysyk and Petrovic doing very well in those minutes was a surprise too.

    Ok thanks. I like your targets posts in the offseason cause it makes me look at some players closer than I would normally but you were busy with other stuff this year.

    I hope Woodguy 3.0 comes with an upgraded troll ignoring function 🙂

  122. godot10 says:

    rickithebear: Go back 2 years and look at the % of cap at contract signing for players in his range.
    Of Even production and overall production.
    For 15-16
    For 16-17
    For cummulative 15-16 to 16-17

    Mcdavid has 2 comparables.
    Croasby aprox 17.2%
    Ovechkin aprox 16.9%

    Two years ago is ancient history. The game has been reset with the McDavid contract.

  123. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: We’ll have a download csv button soon.

    Also, you can grab the categories by “overgrabbing” towards the top of the page, you just have to delete out the other crap that will appear on your spread sheet.

    I do it all the time.

    If it does not change soon, can I ask for a refund?

  124. godot10 says:

    Bank Shot: Howson has been with the Oilers from 1994-2017 minus 2007-2013.

    Where’s our Cam Atkinson in that time period?

    Jason Chimera, Fernando Pisani, Shawn Horcoff, Matthew Lombardi

  125. godot10 says:

    hockeydb says Mitch Callahan shoots right and is a right wing.

    LT…why are you putting him on the left side?

  126. jtblack says:

    Ducey,

    “an exterminator for the bees” – made me laugh !

    By all account Yak was pretty sick in Sarnia (I did not see him play) … But some of his tendancies were rather wierd for what was supposed to be an elite player …

    Yak should also make us appreciate Connor and Leon. You have to pay good players, that’s how it works. I would rather paying up now, than staring at two more failed prospects … No matter what we pay Connor & Leon, the Oilers will be compettitive for the next 8 years. Love it!

  127. godot10 says:

    I think Mark Streit on a one year deal would be a good idea, but Pittsburgh will probably re-sign him.

    Play him 3rd pair (left shot) right D with Nurse. Replaces Sekera on PP2. Run Russell/Benning as 2nd pair.

    OR

    Nurse, Larsson
    Klefbom, Benning
    Streit, Russell

  128. McSorley33 says:

    First time caller, does anyone know of website I can go to get hockey data?

    I’ll hang up and listen, thanks.

    I am SHOCKED Scotty Howson was still available.

    What a coup for the org.

    1. Sign Howson
    2. Sign McDavid
    3. Sign Draisaitl

  129. frjohnk says:

    McSorley33: I am SHOCKED Scotty Howson was still available.
    What a coup for the org.
    1. Sign Howson
    2. Sign McDavid
    3. Sign Draisaitl

    Glad the Oilers got the most important signing done first.

  130. godot10 says:

    Draisaitl has the option of signing for one year in Europe and playing in the Olympics. It would help his outside-of-hockey marketing potential in Germany and Europe.

  131. McSorley33 says:

    After A brief perusal of the numbers, I am firmly in the camp that we are significantly outgunned when McDavid is off the ice….

    It would appear PC is going to try to surround McDavid with young internal talent and drafted talent.

    I have to think our window does not open until we get better balance up front.

    Unless of course Leon surprises at 2C. I have to think our window will not be until the following year.

  132. JDI says:

    Woodguy v2.0: We’ll have a download csv button soon.

    Great stuff!

    Woodguy v2.0: “overgrabbing”

    Yeah, for some reason that wouldn’t work for me. Might be a Firefox issue for me.

  133. Richard S.S. says:

    The Oilers can pay Leon and Connor whatever they want to. But they must show some restraint as they have too many untradable big ticket Players that cannot be moved soon enough. I can see both Nuge and/or Klefbom and/orDraisaitl gone for picks after next season as the Oilers only tradable options. Cap Space is all.

  134. McSorley33 says:

    New website is amazing…..if a Luddite like me can use it. It is good.

    Can’t believe how fast it is…

  135. godot10 says:

    McSorley33:
    After A brief perusal of the numbers, I am firmly in the camp that we are significantlyoutgunned when McDavid is off the ice….

    It would appear PC is going to try to surround McDavid with young internal talent and drafted talent.

    I have to think our window does not open until we get better balance up front.

    Unless of course Leon surprises at 2C. I have to think our window will not be until the following year.

    Chiarelli can’t do anything until both McDavid and Draisaitl sign.

    But if he can get them both signed for eight years ($13.25 + $9) = $22,25 million for the next eight years, he know exactly the parameters he has to work with for the foreseeable future.

    Trying to nickel and dime Draisaitl is dumb. He isn’t nickel and dime-ing McDavid or Lucic or Russell or Sekera. He jumped on Talbot and signed him early.

  136. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk: Glad the Oilers got the most important signing done first.

    You forgot Gryba. Everything was dependent on the Gryba signing

  137. Side says:

    godot10: Chiarelli can’t do anything until both McDavid and Draisaitl sign.

    But if he can get them both signed for eight years ($13.25 + $9) = $22,25 million for the next eight years, he know exactly the parameters he has to work with for the foreseeable future.

    Trying to nickel and dime Draisaitl is dumb.He isn’t nickel and dime-ing McDavid or Lucic or Russell or Sekera.He jumped on Talbot and signed him early.

    Why are you comparing Lucic’s contract to Draisaitl? Nickel and diming Drai? On what planet is it a good idea to pay Draisaitl 9 million dollars?

    Your comparisons are flaccid.

  138. godot10 says:

    Side: Why are you comparing Lucic’s contract to Draisaitl? Nickel and diming Drai? On what planet is it a good idea to pay Draisaitl 9 million dollars?

    Your comparisons are flaccid.

    Because that is what Draisaitl’s agents are likely doing. The NHL chose not to allow players exiting ELC to be arbitration eligible, so arbitration comparables are not the controlling comparables.

    In this negotiation where Draisaitl slots into the team salary roster is more important.

  139. Side says:

    godot10: Because that is what Draisaitl’s agents are likely doing. The NHL chose not to allow players exiting ELC to be arbitration eligible, so arbitration comparables are not the controlling comparables.

    In this negotiation where Draisaitl slots into the team salary roster is more important.

    Belichick and Epstein would not sign Draisaitl for 9 mil.

  140. New Improved Darkness says:

    Lowetide: PLEASE don’t be sorry. At no point in a conversation among friends should the word sorry come up. Unless you spill coffee on my penis, then a grunt of sorrow is allowed.

    Indeed, the word has its primal uses.

    A Harvard study last year of the “superfluous apologizer,” for example, showed they are seen as more trustworthy. It found people were more likely to hand a stranger their phone if the request, “Can I use your phone?” was preceded by a superfluous apology, “I’m sorry about the rain.”

    Of course Canadians are sorry about the rain. WTF use is rain!!! Having thus established that your life priorities are in the right place, of course I’d lend you my phone. Sheesh.

    What these examples share is a sense of “sorry” that is like wearing a maple leaf on your bag.

    Returning to the subject of being mugged with inclement treasure, the clumsy sod is surely “sorry” for raining on your parade and/or curdling your leaf.

    ———

    “Omigod, Allan, I’m so dreadfully, er, uh—Allan: prmissSSSSSSSsngraaAAAAhhhntd—sorry about that.”

    There follows an awkward calculation, as rushing gallantly into the breech with a sacrificial shirt tail is almost certainly not on.

    In fact, the heretofore esteemed guest had best vacate the premises altogether during what shall likely prove to be an astute auctioneer’s adrenal eight-count (or else).

    ———

    Doctor: Well, isn’t this just the strangest thing. These two dangling flaps of skin couldn’t be more complementary if they’d been laser-incised in Cooperstown. Just a moment. Which is the 8? Which is the ∞? Good thing everything is still mostly attached, so I can trace back to a positive I.D.

    Esteemed guest, with a slow move to second: How many stitches you figure, doc?

    Doctor: I’d say 108, give or take, er—roughly—zero.

    Esteemed guest: Riiight. And you’re the presiding Rain Man at your community quilting bee, in your off hours?

    Doctor: It’s just—a familiar pattern. Say, whatever got into this vicious, ball-obsessed animal’s mind?

    ———

    Lowetide [back at home]: Bad, Ziggy, bad.

    [Ten minutes later] “Lordy, whoever invented these DOGBARMED blister packs owes the world ONE HELL of a giant apology.”

    Ziggy hunkers down, now thoroughly chastised.

    “Oh, sorry, Ziggy. I only mean the first one. Er, two. I know you love me, but that was seriously old school.”

    [Another ten minutes later] “All right, now look, Focker, I’m a patient man.”

    That’s not the way one normally addresses an angry wound, but this particular wound is one sorry mess.

    ———

    Esteemed guest: Well, it all began when I fumbled my coffee cake, and then instinctively tried to deflect it from landing jam-side-down on the velvet couch cozy with my not-so-free hand, spalding hot coffee lashed me on the wrist, I flinched toward third, and the rest is history.

    Doctor: Must have been some heat.

    Esteemed guest: Yeah, you should have seen the other guy.

    Doctor: So that’s not the whole story, then?

    Esteemed guest [who is not presently disposed to explain the whole Ziggy thing]: Yeah, I left out the count of eight, er, nine, unfortunately.

    Doctor [still tweezing away at deeply embedded Fruit lint]: And …

    Esteemed guest: Personally, I blame the cake.

    Doctor: Why is that?

    Esteemed guest: Way too tender.

    Esteemed guest: OUUuuuuuuUUCH! Hey, aren’t you going to FREEZE that first?

    Doctor: Oh, right you are. Sorr—

    Esteemed guest: DON’T say it!

    Doctor: —Sore, is it? It’s just, I got so into your stoory.

    Esteemed guest: Good fake recovery.

    Doctor [preparing the needle]: But for you, eventually, a real one. Red thread or black?

    Esteemed guest: Aren’t you the funny one, all dressed up in white and bleeding from nowhere?

    Doctor: [injecting the needle] Black, it is then. A fine choice. One lump or two?

    Esteemed guest: Fuuuck, I’m so going to kill you, eventually, for real.

    Doctor [removing the needle]: You do that. So here’s the thing—spare the dog, if you have one. She simply doesn’t need to see this. Even after my best repair.

    Esteemed guest: Are you crazy? What would “Laddie” worry about this little Chuckie Cheevers bollocks boo-boo?

    Doctor: Well, that’s what you think. Around these parts, we treat canine capisce all the damn time. You never read Cujo?

    Esteemed guest: That’s just a story.

    Doctor: Okay. Try that on your wife, the first time she spies your scary jawchuck.

    Esteemed guest: Oh, come on. It’s just a flesh wound.

    Doctor: Back when you were a child, did you ever leave a used, toy balloon in the sun—uninflated, not entirely spittle-free, until it becomes a hot, sticky mass, but—ever the optimist—you try to re-inflate it, anyway?

    Esteemed guest: Don’t recall. Why do you ask?

    Doctor: Well, scar tissue, it’s like that.

    Esteemed guest: How so?

    Doctor [pushing away mental images of a mid-term fetus becoming enveloped by its own umbilical cord]: Uh, hmmmm, never mind.

    Twenty minutes of awkward silence ensue, this particular doctor being exceptionally meticulous, not one to eschew excess sinew, and more than a bit near-sighted.

    Doctor [at long last, sitting comfortably erect again]: Okay flapper, you’re all fixed.

    Doctor [hands esteemed guest a sorry-looking vial of greasy ointment]: Regular application will keep reparations … pliable.

    Esteemed guest: Sure thing, doc. Twice daily?

    Doctor: I’d say hourly, if you be thinking straight.

    ———

    As Ian and Will Ferguson theorized in How To Be A Canadian (Even If You Already Are One), there are in fact twelve Canadian sorries: simple, essential, occupational, subservient, aristocratic, demonstrative, libidinous, ostentatious, mythical, unrepentant, sympathetic and authentic. (source)

    It seems clear enough that “aristocratic”, “ostentatious”, and “unrepentant” all have their hot little handles on Red Rose, but pray tell which one is the horrified bungler’s gruff for pete rose? (Soon may it again, on its own steam.)

  141. anonymous says:

    Richard S.S.:
    The Oilers can pay Leon and Connor whatever they want to.But they must show some restraint as they have too many untradable big ticket Players that cannot be moved soon enough.I can see both Nuge and/or Klefbom and/orDraisaitl gone for picks after next season as the Oilers only tradable options.Cap Space is all.

    Klefbom exemplifies good cap dollars. Not a player you dump for cap space.

  142. JDI says:

    Craig Custance‏Verified account @CraigCustance

    Marcus Kruger to Carolina isn’t done yet but talks pretty far along on this front. @BrianHedger first to report Vegas flipping Kruger.

  143. godot10 says:

    Side: Belichick and Epstein would not sign Draisaitl for 9 mil.

    Belichek just paid full value in the UFA free agent market for Stephan Gilmore. He also didn’t tag Hightower and let him test unrestricted free agency, just like he let McCourty, and then offered comparable deals.

    But then he plays hardball when he has leverage (like with Butler), but he offered Butler a renegotition a year ago and he didn’t take it. He renegotiated with Gronk early, and just renegotiated with him again. He just renegotiated with Edelman.

    Belichek knows value, and when to walk away.

    You can’t offer McDavid $13.25 and then credibly offer Draisaitl only $7 million. McDavid can’t do it by himself. The difference in talent and marketing potential is NOT that great.

  144. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: Jason Chimera, Fernando Pisani, Shawn Horcoff, Matthew Lombardi

    Howson was the Oilers AHL GM from 1996-2000 so he wouldn’t have had input on any of those players getting drafted.

    Did the Oilers acquire any AHL players 1996-2000 that went on to be NHLers?

    That would be Howson’s legacy from that time period.

  145. Richard S.S. says:

    Only one problem, Oilers must become Cap Compliant for the 2018-19 Season. Sekera and Russell would still be a year away from being tradable. Lucic would still be two years away.

    anonymous: Klefbom exemplifies good cap dollars. Not a player you dump for cap space.

  146. fifthcartel says:

    godot10: Belichek just paid full value in the UFA free agent market for Stephan Gilmore.He also didn’t tag Hightower and let him test unrestricted free agency, just like he let McCourty, and then offered comparable deals.

    But then he plays hardball when he has leverage (like with Butler), but he offered Butler a renegotition a year ago and he didn’t take it.He renegotiated with Gronk early, and just renegotiated with him again.He just renegotiated with Edelman.

    Belichek knows value, and when to walk away.

    You can’t offer McDavid $13.25 and then credibly offer Draisaitl only $7 million.McDavid can’t do it by himself.The difference in talent and marketing potential is NOT that great.

    McDavid’s only comparables were basically Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, and Evgeni Malkin.

    Giving Draisaitl close to that would be an unprecedented overpay for a player with 5 RFA years left.

    I love Draisaitl, but McDavid’s deal shouldn’t change what he gets.

  147. frjohnk says:

    Richard S.S.: Only one problem, Oilers must become Cap Compliant for the 2018-19 Season. Sekera and Russell would still be a year away from being tradable. Lucic would still be two years away.

    Lucic has a NMC until June of 2021 ( 4 more years) in which he provides a list of 8 teams he can be traded to just for the month of June. Then his NMC kicks in again July 1, 2021 until June 1st, 2022. Then he provides a list of 10 teams will go to for the last year of the contract.

    I loved the fact that we got Lucic but moving forward believe this is without a doubt the worst contract on the Oilers.

    EDIT: Its also a buyout proof contract because of the signing bonuses, so if his play tails off, we either trade him with salary retained ( which could be very hard to do) or get him to wear Marian Hossa’s gear, or take a drive with Mike Richards and cross the border.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_calculator/milan-lucic woof!

  148. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Congrats! May your kudos have kudos and your bets always be winners.

  149. Munny says:

    frjohnk,

    For the moment, Fayne has the worst contract on the Oilers. This is, however, a moving target.

  150. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I imagine they go 13F 8D to start the season

    Maroon-McD-Drai
    Lucic-RNH-Pulju
    Caggiula-Strome-Slepy
    Khaira-Letestu-Kassian
    Pakarinen/Rattie

    Klef-Lar
    Russell-Benning
    Nurse-Gryba
    Fayne/Simpson

  151. Richard S.S. says:

    I think the biggest problem is when McDavid’s off the ice who drives the play?
    The next biggest problem is who’s good enough to play with McDavid?
    Who plays with the #2 driver on this team? They can’t be on the same line, it weakens the team.

    I think it’s going to be a very interesting period the next 20 years.

  152. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Huge bets on Slepy, Strome, Pulju, Caggiula, and Benning going into next year. And a bet on a big rebound from RNH.

    Hope a noteworthy addition is coming to the front and back end.

  153. LMHF#1 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I imagine they go 13F 8D to start the season

    Maroon-McD-Drai
    Lucic-RNH-Pulju
    Caggiula-Strome-Slepy
    Khaira-Letestu-Kassian
    Pakarinen/Rattie

    Klef-Lar
    Russell-Benning
    Nurse-Gryba
    Fayne/Simpson

    That’s not a particularly good hockey team.

    1 good d pair.

    Only 1 sure thing forward line.

    Yikes.

  154. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    hockeydb says Mitch Callahan shoots right and is a right wing.

    LT…why are you putting him on the left side?

    He plays LW often and it balances.

  155. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    If Markov would take 2 X 5m (asking 2 x6m) once 97 and 29 are signed it would solve a few issues.

    That’s why I hope it’s still 5 year deals for the two RFAs. Keep the cap hits lower.

  156. LadiesloveSmid says:

    LMHF#1: That’s not a particularly good hockey team.

    1 good d pair.

    Only 1 sure thing forward line.

    Yikes.

    Pretty stark without Eberle and Sekera. My summer hope was a 2RD replacement for Russell and a vet RW. Disappointed.

  157. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    As much as I share your outlook, summer isn’t over yet.

    Could still happen

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    You can’t offer McDavid $13.25 and then credibly offer Draisaitl only $7 million.McDavid can’t do it by himself.The difference in talent and marketing potential is NOT that great.

    At the same time, Drai can’t compare himself to McDavid and McDavid’s contract and disregard every other recent comparable.

  159. Scungilli Slushy says:

    An excersize in trying to armchair GM with proper numbers, go to Capfriendly, armchair GM, create team, choose Oilers, pick 2018-2019.

    I signed Connor at 11 and Leon at 7. I traded Nuge for picks. I used all farm players to flesh out the forwards after signing Strome to a modest raise and Letestu to 1.1M. I signed Nurse and Benning to 2.5M each. No dice.

    If the cap goes up again they could squeak it out, but unless young cheap guys make major contributions they are really stripped down up front.

    This makes me think first Chiarelli is taking the correct approach, and that they might have to move a defenseman to keep who they have up front even after moving Nuge for no salary back. The issue on defence is Nurse and Benning who are quality and needing raises. The folllowing year it’s JP.

    This is probably the most critical summer for the team’s future until the new CBA in 2021 I think it is. Now is the time to get the deals needed in able to build strength moving forward. Leon is at the watershed right now, Connor has hopefully made a team friendly choice, everyone else moving forward will choose between max dollars and being part of a special team with league top potential.

  160. Side says:

    godot10: Belichek just paid full value in the UFA free agent market for Stephan Gilmore.He also didn’t tag Hightower and let him test unrestricted free agency, just like he let McCourty, and then offered comparable deals.

    But then he plays hardball when he has leverage (like with Butler), but he offered Butler a renegotition a year ago and he didn’t take it.He renegotiated with Gronk early, and just renegotiated with him again.He just renegotiated with Edelman.

    Belichek knows value, and when to walk away.

    You can’t offer McDavid $13.25 and then credibly offer Draisaitl only $7 million.McDavid can’t do it by himself.The difference in talent and marketing potential is NOT that great.

    You can offer McDacvid $13.25 mil and Drai $7 mil. Because McDavid is McDavid and Draisaitl is Draisaitl. One is a generational talent, the other is still a relatively unknown who is producing similarly to players making $7 mil. We don’t even know if Drai is a legit #1 center yet and people want to pay him $9 mil…

    You get paid by your production and you go off benchmark contracts across the league. You don’t do whatever it is that you’re talking about.

    Drai at 9 mil is not value. At all. Lol

  161. YKOil says:

    Some quick thoughts:

    1. Howson may be qualified for that position but it really is, still, the old boys club and that has to stop (please, dear lord, let it stop).

    2. McDavid ($13.25) and Drai ($9.0) earning 30% of the cap, plus Lucic and Russell tacking on another 13% means 43% of the cap on 4 players – one of which is unproven over term and two of which are going to go downhill fast. This will not end well. PC has to hold the line on Drai.

    3. McDavid is worth every penny but I’m not fond of the fact that the Oilers will be paying for McDavid’s, and possibly Drai’s, education vis-a-vis crippling your own team with your salary demands.

    4. Playing the slow hand on a UFA crop like this is exactly the right way to play it so kudos to PC on that – my objection is to the buyout of Pouliot this year and the sub-standard returns on trades that PC accepts.

    5. Make the summer and fall last as long as possible if it keeps Drai from $9 million. The right number doesn’t exceed $8 million and should be lower.

    6. If the trade was Subban and Sergachev for Drai, Nurse and Pulj… I do that trade all day long (as I get to keep Hall). I don’t remember it that way though.

    7. Huge props to PuckIQ – fantastic work gentlemen. Fantastic work.

    8. Team friendly numbers for McDavid and Drai are, imo, $12.25 million and $7.75 million respectively. Those numbers will let cap inflation keep the team from getting gutted over the course of the 8 years.

  162. striatic says:

    I think Draisaitl is worth more than Kuznetsov, something something upside. At the very least he could be worth more and that’s the problem. I’d guess that the issue for the Draisaitl camp is Term. Does Draisaitl really want to take 8 million long term if he legitimately believes he’s as good as, say, Kopitar at 10 million? That’s not an outlandish thing for the man to believe.

    If you are Leon, and you believe you’re going to be that good, how do you sign for 20% [at least] below where you think you are and will be?

  163. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: Ok thanks.I like your targets posts in the offseason cause it makes me look at some players closer than I would normally but you were busy with other stuff this year.

    I hope Woodguy 3.0 comes with an upgraded troll ignoring function

    Me too. 🙂

  164. The Oilers' Second Wave: Howson, Malone, McDavid and More • The Oilers Rig says:

    […] the man, but he has a very strong track record when it comes to drafting and developing players. As Lowetide pointed out in his blog over the weekend, the Blue Jackets were strong at the draft table during Howson’s time with […]

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca