THE DAVENPORT HOTEL

We have reached the point in summer where most (or all) of the winter roster is known to us and we can begin projecting players into their future roles. One of the things I like to do is slot in the team’s prospects in the most reasonable position on depth charts for the coming year. In 2015 summer I called this post Destination Unknown, last year (in honor of JP) Oulu Speedway. Since Kailer Yamamoto is from Spokane, and the city has an old kickass hotel downtown, I thought this title fit best of all. Summer Top 20 ranking in brackets, if it changed someone was traded, lost to expansion or signed elsewhere as a free agent.

HOTEL DAVENPORT

(Summer 2017 ranking in brackets)

  1. (1) R Jesse Puljujarvi. Edmonton Oilers (NHL) 28gp, 1-7-8; Bakersfield (AHL) 39gp, 12-16-28. Destination 2017-18: NHL from the start, if he scores well he’ll be here until 2030 and beyond. Peter Chiarelli wants Jesse Puljujarvi in the everyday lineup and inside the top 9F. No doubt in my mind based on Edmonton’s moves this week. If Puljujarvi can score 20 goals this coming season, the Oilers will have made the right bet all down the line.
  2. (2) R Kailer Yamamoto. Spokane (WHL) 65gp, 42-57-99. Destination 2017-18: Impact WHL winger, he could spend some time in the NHL at the start of the year. Numbers were fantastic. He was 28-20-48 at 5×5 this year, behind only Cody Glass among WHL players. Top skill, fantastic speed, good scorer but a better playmaker. Size the only issue and he’s a lock for pro hockey fall 2018.
  3. (3) RD Ethan Bear. Seattle (WHL) 67gp, 28-42-70. Destination 2017-18: A full season in Bakersfield, possible NHL cup of coffee. I think he’ll call Bakersfield home this season, for the same reason JP didn’t get a call after demotion last winter. Edmonton will be in a full playoff race and the days of coaching them up at the NHL level should be over. That may not happen on the wing, but should be the case for defensemen.
  4. (4) LD Caleb Jones. Portland (WHL) 63gp, 9-53-62. Destination 2017-18: A full season in Bakersfield, maybe NHL look-see.  He may be the best skater among defenders in the system and that’s a big advantage when hitting pro. I’ll be  watching to see where he plays on the depth chart, as his defensive acumen appears to be the only stumbling block. He can skate with NHL players right now.
  5. (5) L Tyler Benson. Vancouver (WHL) 33gp, 11-31-42. Destination 2017-18: A healthy and productive WHL season. The fourth WHL prospect in a row on this list, Benson would be higher save for injury. He is skating, appears to be on the right track and we can hope for a full season’s work of results in the WHL. His 1.27 points-per-game trails Yamamoto (1.52) but shows how much skill Benson brings. A promising young player.
  6. (6) L-R Ostap Safin. Sparta Praha (CZECH) 8gp, 1-1-2. Destination 2017-18: Big minutes and strong boxcars in highest Czech league. Simon Boisvert had him No. 25, saying “Safin is enigmatic, but his talent is obvious”. High risk-reward player he has size, speed and skill and clear blacktop on this prospect list. He is listed as a RW but shoots left, so may end up port side in pro.
  7. (7) LC Jujhar Khaira. Edmonton Oilers (NHL) 10gp, 1-0-1; Bakersfield (AHL) 27gp, 8-12-20. Destination 2017-18: Full season in the NHL, this is the time to establish an NHL career. A lock for the roster this fall, he is the top ranked center in the system at this time. I expect he’ll replace Matt Hendricks on the Oilers roster, possibly getting penalty-killing minutes as the season grows. He’ll need to chip in 7-10 goals on offense, that’s the only real question. Oilers love his size and speed combination.
  8. (8) LD Ziyat Paigin. Ak Bars Kazan (KHL) 17gp, 1-3-4; Bakersfield (AHL) 5gp, 0-0-0. Destination 2017-18: AHL to start, but his pro resume should mean some NHL time in 2017-18. It’s important to remember a lot of his offense comes from power-play time (he has a terrific shot) so the boxcars will be mediocre without the 5×4. His scouting report suggests shutdown capabilities, massive wingspan, big shot without being an expert passer or transporter. This suggests third pairing and defensive work. If he is mobile, Edmonton may fast track him if injuries occur.
  9. (9) G Stuart Skinner. Lethbridge (WHL) 60gp, 3.26 .905. Destination 2017-18: Strong year in the WHL, possible WJ’s appearance. Regarded as one of the best goalies of his draft year for at least two years, Skinner has a chance to establish himself as the Oilers goalie of the future with a strong campaign. When it comes to goalies, an organization’s belief can count for a lot. Edmonton believes in Skinner, the verbal is akin to the days of Dubnyk as a prospect.
  10. (10) L Kirill Maksimov. Niagara (OHL) 66gp, 21-17-38. Destination 2017-18: Big step forward and a prominent role in OHL.  One of the real wildcards in the system, the verbal from Brock Otten and others is extremely positive. Based on that and his skills, we may see him emerge as one of the top prospects in the system over this winter.
  11. (11) G Dylan Wells. Peterborough (OHL) 52gp, 3.07 .916. Destination 2017-18: Impact final OHL season, good chance to play at WJ’s. Year over year save percentage progress (.871 to .916) was amazing and his playoff performance (.930) added to the strength of his season. Wells and Skinner appear to be setting up for a DD vs. JDD battle for the NHL net into the future. Both men have solid resumes.
  12. (12) LD Dmitri Samorukov. Guelph (OHL) 67gp, 4-16-20. Destination 2017-18: A strong OHL season and emergence as a top NHL prospect. Showed well at the Hlinka and U18’s, but his OHL report card was mixed. That’s normal, a lot of adjustment in game and lifestyle. Edmonton got him in a great spot and if he can play on the smaller ice the way he does in international tournaments, the Oilers will have another quality defenseman.
  13. (13) LC Joe Gambardella. UMass-Lowell (NCAA) 41gp, 18-34-52; Bakersfield (AHL) 6gp, 1-2-3. Destination 2017-18: Rookie pro should have offensive success inthe AHL, could get NHL cup of coffee.  With an NHLE of 82, 13-25-38, he might be the most NHL-ready of the forwards who have yet to play a big league game. Gambardella’s AHL games were like the college years, aggressive forecheck, offense from turnovers, tremendous motor. He could arrive in the NHL sooner than any of us are thinking right now.
  14. (14) G Laurent Brossoit. Edmonton Oilers (NHL) 8gp, 1.99 .928; Bakersfield (AHL) 21gp, 2.67 .908. Destination 2017-18: NHL backup! It is his job nowMy line in the sand for goalies to graduate is 25 games, and LB is at 15. He should get the final 10 and then another 10 (or so) more in his first full NHL season. Brossoit, along with Jujhar Khaira and Anton Slepyshev, are likely to the first graduating Condors who should emerge as NHL players.
  15. (15) RD Filip Berglund. Skelleftea (SHL) 47gp, 0-9-9. Destination 2017-18: One more SHL season before coming to North America. One of my favorite prospects, mostly because he has two-way skills and played at a high level early. Berglund averaged less than 10 minutes a night in the SHL this past season, you want to see that stretched out in 2017-18.
  16. (16) L Joey Laleggia. Bakersfield (AHL) 67gp, 20-18-38. Destination 2017-18: More goals in the AHL, and an NHL callup to see if he can help in the NHL. From Boxing Day forward, he went 43gp, 18-13-31. That works out to 16 goals NHLE for 82 games. He is undersized and fell through the bottom as a defenseman, but this is an itch the organization needs to scratch. He can score goals! RFA.
  17. (17) G Nick Ellis. Bakersfield (AHL) 34gp, 2.69 .918. Destination 2017-18: Effective AHL starter, his first NHL action He posted superior numbers to Brossoit in Bakersfield, so at some level he has forced himself into the conversation. If Brossoit solidifies his backup role in the NHL, Ellis would have to play extremely well to get a look. His first year suggests the Oilers have a bona fide prospect.
  18. (18) RC Aapeli Rasanen. Sioux City (USHL) 38gp, 7-18-25. Destination 2017-18: Depth minutes at Boston CollegeHe is progressing as a checking center with skill, speed being the one nervous item. Suffered some injury issues last season but played well at the WJ’s. I like him plenty. One downside: He won’t play a lot as a college freshman in 2017-18.
  19. (19) RD John Marino. Harvard (NCAA) 35gp, 2-13-15. Destination 2017-18: Another quality season in the NCAA, possibly in a more prominent roleA strong freshman season for Harvard has Marino’s stock on the rise. He could move into a more offensive role this winter and that could mean a spike in boxcars. He looks like a player.
  20. (20) RD Ryan Mantha. Niagara (OHL) 65, 17-41-58; Bakersfield (AHL) 2gp, 0-0-0. Destination 2017-18: Top 6D in the AHL, a slight chance of some ECHL time. The 6.05, 225 defender is going to get a chance, which may include power-play time. His issue (NY Rangers didn’t sign him) is foot speed, so we’ll know where he is compared to Bear and Jones early in the year. A solid bet but he was passed over by an NHL team and arrives in pro hockey at 21.
  21. (21) LD William Lagesson. UMass-Amherst (NCAA) 36gp, 2-6-8. Destination 2017-18: Establishing himself in pro hockey as a regular with Djugardens (SHL)He was loaned the Swede to Djurgardens IF in Sweden. That may be code for “we liked other guys more and can’t develop five defensemen in one year” but the compromise may be beneficial. Lagesson is a rugged rearguard with speed and mobility, Chiarelli has all kinds of time for that skill set.
  22. (23) LD Dillon Simpson. Edmonton Oilers (NHL) 3gp, 0-0-0; Bakersfield (AHL) 53gp, 3-8-11. Destination 2017-18: Mentoring the new kids in Bakersfield, waiting for an NHL recallPlayed in his first three NHL games this season and was quietly effective. The signing over the weekend of Ryan Stanton may put Simpson No. 9 on the depth chart, but those guys play during the season. He is in a pretty good spot. RFA.
  23. (24) L Graham McPhee.  Boston College 39gp, 2-8-10. Destination 2017-18: Increased minutes and offense in NCAAWe should begin to see what kind of offense he can deliver this season, as McPhee will be a sophomore with the BC program. He’ll need to deliver significantly more in that area, but he appears to be a capable player elsewhere. A big season for him.
  24. (25) G Shane Starrett. Air Force (NCAA) 37gp, 1.99 .925. Destination 2017-18: Will battle for starting AHL job, he has an excellent resume. In his two NCAA seasons, he posted .924 and .925 save percentages, suggesting this is in fact his quality of play. At 22, he is a solid pro prospect. He’s tall and thin (6.05, 180), getting mighty crowded at his position. All of this is good news, looks like a battle for the net in Bakersfield.
  25. (26) RC Tyler Vesel. Nebraska-Omaha (NCAA) 39gp, 14-21-35. Destination 2017-18: Another strong season in Omaha. Blossomed in his junior college season with Omaha. The numbers say he is emerging,but beware older college forwards who begin to post big numbers later in their career. I am completely unsure about him.
  26. (27) LD Markus Niemelainen. Saginaw (OHL). 59gp, 3-6-9. Destination 2017-18: Regular shifts with HPK in the Sm-LiigaHis point total went from 27 to nine, but the reports I got about Niemelainen had him playing well. He was a third-round pick in a summer that had three of them, all devoted to defensemen. Needs a recovery season.
  27. (28) LC Skyler Brind’Amour. USNDTP (USHL) 8gp, 1-0-1. Destination 2017-18:  Big numbers for the Chilliwack Chiefs of the BCHL. Draft and follow meets NHL bloodlines and there’s a lot of information missing. I am looking forward to seeing what he brings and based on size (6.02, 170) and Dad (Rod) he could be a far bigger man by the time he starts college with Michigan State in 2019.
  28. (29) L Aidan Muir. Western Michigan (NCAA) 20gp, 2-9-11. Destination 2017-18: Healthy and good numbers in final college season. He is 6.04, 212 and has one more year of college eligibility. His NHLE (18.5) suggests he may have pro-level offense, we may see him in Bakersfield come spring. As is the case with Vesel, very hard to project how things go in terms of signing. My guess is Oilers like his size.
  29. (30) RD Phil Kemp. USNDTP (USHL) 25gp, 2-2-4. Destination 2017-18: Yale University, where he’ll fight for playing time. I’ve been reading about him a lot over this week, he is somewhat similar to William Lagesson. Good size, a fine skater, but his skill set fits a shutdown player. Shot blocking and defensive positioning among his bullet points. He is 6.03, 201 and a 1999.
  30. (31) LD Ben Betker. Bakersfield (AHL) 30gp, 1-5-6; Stockton (ECHL) 5gp, 3-2-5). Destination 2017-18: He should emerge as an AHL regular and could mentor one of the younger defenders. Gigantic human (6.06, 228) turns 23 in the fall, so his time is now. He has good mobility for a player his size, but is getting overrun by the oncoming defensemen. Had a good EV GF-GA ratio, will be interesting to see what role he plays this coming season. My guess is 6-7D in Bakersfield.
  31. (32) R Greg Chase. Bakersfield (AHL) 48gp, 3-11-14. Destination 2017-18: Will attempt to push through a very crowded depth chart to play regularly in the AHLHe has now played 76 games for Bakersfield, posting 5-18-23. The Oilers signings this week are going to make playing regularly a challenge. You always hope a player uses challenges as a motivation but he needs to play in order to show what he can do at the AHL level.
  32. (33) R Patrick Russell. Bakersfield (AHL) 68gp, 8-9-17. Destination 2017-18: Finding the range offensively. There is urgency hereHe shoots the puck a lot (150 shots, 2.21 a game) and should be good for 20+ goals in the AHL as a feature player. That’s based on his USHL and NCAA resume, but he’s 24 now and the time is now.
  33. (34) RC Kyle Platzer.  Bakersfield (AHL) 51gp, 1-7-8Destination 2017-18: A strong showing in Bakersfield is a must for PlatzerAs mentioned in the Chase piece above, the signings by Edmonton this week have to be seen as a clear indication that this organization doesn’t see a lot of F prospects in Bakersfield. There will be room for Gambardella and Laleggia, but after that it could be a veteran crew. Platzer needs to bust a move this fall.
  34. (35) LD Matthew Cairns. Fargo (USHL) 17gp, 0-4-4; Powell River (BCHL) 18gp, 2-14-16. Destination 2017-18: Slated for Cornell, he may play sparinglyI’m concerned that he didn’t play enough in Fargo. That’s a junior league and a drafted player should have no problems. Powell River numbers were better, but I’d rather see him in junior than not playing in college.
  35. (36) RD Vincent Desharnais. Providence (NCAA) 32gp, 2-1-3. Destination 2017-18: His junior season in the NCAA is straight aheadThe reports were receive on college men are rare and defensive defensemen don’t tell us much with their numbers. He is playing well enough to get positive mentions and RHD are worth a lot.
  36. (38) L Evan Polei. Red Deer (WHL) 69gp, 33-29-62; Bakersfield (AHL) 1gp, 0-0-0. Destination 2017-18: ECHL and AHL time, trying to earn an NHL contractAn AHL-only contract, his size and skill (6.02, 227 and 33 goals) are intriguing. Good hands, speed the issue and we’ll see in a year. He was a quality junior.
  37. (39) R Dave Gust. Ohio State (NCAA). 39gp, 18-23-41. Destination 2017-18: Finding a role on an offensive line in Bakersfield. He is 23, 5.10, 174 and arrives on an AHL deal. I like his skills, he is small and that is a challenge. Somewhere in the distance is the next Mark Arcobello or Frank St. Marseille, we cheer for each of these men.
  38. (40)  R Chad Butcher. Medicine Hat (WHL) 68gp, 27-76-103. Destination 2017-18: ECHL likely, needs to thrive. Small winger with range of skills, good offense. Speed main weapon, hire 10 of these at a time if they have speed.
  39. (41) L Braden Christoffer. Bakersfield (AHL) 49gp, 5-3-8. Destination 2017-18: Living on the edge, hanging by a threadSigned in a training camp fever, Christoffer has been unable to score enough or get enough playing time. This is a big season for him.

BRAD MALONE

The Oilers signed Brad Malone today, it’s a two-year deal and he has a chance to make the NHL team. If you think of Malone as “New Lander” then the signing makes sense. A career 52.9 percent in the NHL faceoff dot, he can also penalty kill. Throw him on the 14F pile with Ty Rattie and Joey Laleggia, only this guy probably has a big edge based on current roster makeup. He is a fine AHL player.

ADDITIONAL PROSPECTS

I count Mitch Callahan as a prospect. He is 25, about three months older than Tyler Pitlick. If he plays well in Bakersfield, expect to see him on my Top 20 Prospects list at Christmas. Same goes for Grayson Downing, Ty Rattie, Brian Ferlin, Keegan Lowe and Edward Pasquale.

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86 Responses to "THE DAVENPORT HOTEL"

  1. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Is Safin saying he’s going to play in the Czech Republic? I think he was drafted to a QMJHL team, could end up there if it’s up in the air.

    Hopefully Pulju pulls a Draisaitl in his draft+2. Both were sufferers of piss poor on-ice %s in their first seasons. How does Pulju shoot at 0% at 5v5?

  2. Todd Macallan says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Correct, he was drafted by the Saint John Sea Dogs. Supposed to be a bit of a down year for them but may have the chance to play with “exceptional” 2018 draft star Joe Veleno if he goes the Q route. Given SJ’s track record for developing pros, let’s hope for this option.

    Of note, as I mentioned in the previous thread, Yamamoto and Gambardella played on a line in scrimmage today, both with 3 pts.

  3. jtblack says:

    Love the Info!

    Any chance Ellis outplays LB for backup?

    Kailer looks tiny. Lets hope he tears up the Wub again and arrives full force as you say.

    I think JP’s #’s will depend on TMac. As we have seen, if coach likes you, things are rosy. If not, you don’t play.

    I think Strome replaces Letestu on PP1. JP on pp 2 which didnt do much last yr

  4. jtblack says:

    Any chance in the World Yamamoto makes the team this year?

    I think the Oilers Top 9 van compete with anyone in the League.

  5. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    Any chance in the World Yamamoto makes the team this year?

    I think the Oilers Top 9 van compete with anyone in the League.

    He has more talent than any natural RW currently on the roster. I expect the Oilers will not do it, but Yamamoto is going to impress in camp, given the chance.

  6. Professor Q says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Is Safin saying he’s going to play in the Czech Republic? I think he was drafted to a QMJHL team, could end up there if it’s up in the air.

    Hopefully Pulju pulls a Draisaitl in his draft+2. Both were sufferers of piss poor on-ice %s in their first seasons. How does Pulju shoot at 0% at 5v5?

    And by Saint John. If he does go to the Q, does well, that’s a perfect opportunity to develop well and have a chance at multiple championships.

  7. jake70 says:

    Brad Malone, haha. This is great. Been getting a few texts today. Fan of the OIlers for over 35 years and wondered if I would ever see someone from the hometown play for the organisation. Few family connections to the Malone family tree. Still remember the NY Rangers logo cake my mother made for Brad’s father Jim back in 1980 when he went 14th overall to the Rangers. I went up to the house to deliver it with parents, hoping to see older brother Greg but alas wasn’t there. Sure cheering for him to get into a game or two while he is there.

  8. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    Stranger things have happened. Not a fan of rushing players, but ifbhe connects with 97 early he may not leave …

  9. Brantford Boy says:

    Great write up LT,

    After reviewing this list we have a nice pool of talent coming along. With McDavid and any other major contacts coming into play it will be imperative to have these players grow and make it past the cups of coffee into established NHL’ers… I really hope Tyler Benson can have an injury free season.

  10. JDI says:

    jake70: Brad Malone

    I can’t shake the thought of this when I hear the name:

    http://tinyurl.com/ukzc3gt

  11. jake70 says:

    JDI: I can’t shake the thought of this when I hear the name:

    http://tinyurl.com/ukzc3gt

    Ha..too funny.

  12. Scungilli Slushy says:

    A comment late to the last post.

    If you don’t play with Capfriendly and you are interested in armchair GM’ing you have to try something. Go to the Armchair GM and create an Oiler team for 2018-2019.

    Sign Connor for 11M, Leon for 7M, Strome for 2.8M, Nurse and Benning for 2.5M, and bring Letestu back for 1.1M, then trade Nuge for a first. I didn’t resign Maroon.

    It’s not pretty. And those are moderate to low signings. Chiarelli is doing exactly as he should and can. To me it looks like another larger salary beyond Nuge might have to go, either Lucic of a defenceman.
    The cap going up 2M again helps but just enough to make a 23 man possible. JP needs a contract the following year.

    Back to the prospect camp, these young men hold enormous importance to the future of the McDavid Oilers. Loading up on goalies is key. There should be enough quality and depth to find Talbot’s replacement, remember he was older when he got the net and could play well for years or drop off in two.

    This summer is the most critical to laying the foundation of Connor’s Oilers we will see until the new CBA. Hopefully Connor’s deal is team friendly, and after that players are choosing between money and playing for the Oilers and the promise of McDavid’s team in the future.

    Chiarelli might have to go to extremes if he can’t get deals he can figure into a very tight cap situation and build a team that can contend yearly as it should, and fans expect.

  13. jtblack says:

    “Hopefully Connor’s deal is team friendly, and after that players are choosing between money and playing for the Oilers and the promise of McDavid’s team in the future.”

    A few ppl menton this nareative. What are some examples of players in their prime taking discounts?

  14. Professor Q says:

    jtblack:
    “Hopefully Connor’s deal is team friendly, and after that players are choosing between money and playing for the Oilers and the promise of McDavid’s team in the future.”

    A few ppl menton this nareative.What are some examples of players in their prime taking discounts?

    Stamkos. Probably many more.

  15. Moose says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Is Safin saying he’s going to play in the Czech Republic? I think he was drafted to a QMJHL team, could end up there if it’s up in the air.

    Hopefully Pulju pulls a Draisaitl in his draft+2. Both were sufferers of piss poor on-ice %s in their first seasons. How does Pulju shoot at 0% at 5v5?

    JP hit at least 3 or 4 goalposts in those first 20+ games. I suspect his season may have gone differently, both statistically and in deployment, had he cashed those chances. But he started to fall down the lineup and then into the press box. Confidence is a thing. I didn’t think he looked terribly out of place in the first few weeks of the season. I think he sticks this year barring a couple late additions of veterans.

  16. Genjutsu says:

    I think given the current roster Dillon Simpson makes this team outright.

    He can play the right side, he played well enough last year and he skates better than Gryba or Fayne.

    This is a player that progressed every year.

  17. hags9k says:

    When did we get a Klima?!

  18. jm363561 says:

    jtblack:
    “Hopefully Connor’s deal is team friendly, and after that players are choosing between money and playing for the Oilers and the promise of McDavid’s team in the future.”

    A few ppl menton this nareative.What are some examples of players in their prime taking discounts?
    =======
    Shattenkirk.

  19. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    “Hopefully Connor’s deal is team friendly, and after that players are choosing between money and playing for the Oilers and the promise of McDavid’s team in the future.”

    A few ppl menton this nareative.What are some examples of players in their prime taking discounts?

    Crosby is his comparable, Crosby signed at a lower cap% and cap hit than the rumours of McDavid’s coming contract. It has been broken down a lot here and elsewhere.

    One mentioned that no team has won the Cup until the cap hits went under 25% of the cap.

    That will happen eventually, Connor would ‘probably’ have to wait until that happened for the OIlers as the cap rises. Money is a fickle mistress. And also a stone cold reality.

    Try what I mentioned above and try to make a team that looks like a winner. There is no way this coming season’s roster can be kept in tact after the raises coming. Connor and Leon can try to do it alone. The thing in their favour is that Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Jose (losing Marleau) and others are in the same boat.

    Columbus and Nashville aren’t losing key players because cap, yet. So maybe it evens out and all boats sink, if not the Oilers will be very top heavy at forward and have an expensive D where the choice is to trade Larsson, Klef, Nurse or Benning to create space because Sekera and Russell can’t be traded unless they waive.

    I think Chia is a GM with a plan, but it could be painful.

  20. leadfarmer says:

    I wonder if Chia is going to make a play for James Neal. Sekera injury allows us to treat offseason as trade deadline and a lot of this season rides on our RW taking a big step forward and Strome being able to run with the 3c job

  21. treevojo says:

    hags9k:
    When did we get a Klima?!

    Klima will always be here after this.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RfvAYJBmtSY

  22. Professor Q says:

    hags9k:
    When did we get a Klima?!

    In the ’80s, right?

    And a few days ago for the camp we got his two twins.

  23. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    I wonder if Chia is going to make a play for James Neal.Sekera injury allows us to treat offseason as trade deadline and a lot of this season rides on our RW taking a big step forward and Strome being able to run with the 3c job

    They could fit him for a year, but the deal would likely have to be as low cost as the other LVGK deals in picks because those picks are critical to the future success of the team given the coming cap crunch. I don’t think we will see it.

    What seems to be shaping up is a competition to see who will step up and be able to contribute moving forward. There was a lot of ground to make up given the state of the team, they have moved things forward quickly, but we should expect another year of building, rather than an attempt to take a Cup run.

    It’s not what I want, I want to win now, but it is responsible management taking a team from the basement and organizing it to stay at the top IMO.

  24. Jaxon says:

    I had identified Brad Malone as a player of interest in May of 2016 as a cheap 4th liner who is good at faceoffs, hits a lot, shoots a lot. Along with Ryan White, Derek Grant and Jim O’Brien.

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/05/05/silver-wings/

  25. Jaxon says:

    Is Jimmy Hayes worth a look on RW? Boston bought him out. I’m sure Edmonton and Chiarelli are high on his list of ways to stick it to Boston. He could come on a cheap deal similar to what Pouliot got from Buffalo ($1.15M). He’s 6’5″, 215lbs, 27yrs, scored 19 goals and 35 pts a couple years ago. His 11.3 DFF%RC against elites is the 2nd highest in the NHL. (still trying to wrap my head around PuckIQ.com). Maybe he’s the next Maroon. Seems like a Chiarelli-type player. I”m sur eChiarelli would love to sign him and turn him into Maroon2.0.

  26. jtblack says:

    Professor Q,

    Stamkos is the 10th highest in the League.

  27. jtblack says:

    jm363561,

    AAV of $6.7 million is a discount for a 2nd pairing PP specialist?

  28. VOR says:

    Scungilli slushy,

    If you paid Connor McDavid $13.25 Million per year and Leon Draisaitl $9,000,000 per year and cap trends continued the way things have been going you would end up hitting your magic 25% of cap at the beginning of 2021-2022. That would be your first real window to win a cup.

    The more I thought about it the more I think Striatic (posted near the end of the last thread) is on to something and Draisaitl may be holding out for the same contract Anze Kopitar got coming out of his ELC, at least in terms of % cap hit 11.97%. That would be a cap hit of $8,978,873 so basically $9,000,000.

  29. Dee Dee says:

    Jaxon: Is Jimmy Hayes worth a look on RW? Boston bought him out. I’m sure Edmonton and Chiarelli are high on his list of ways to stick it to Boston.

    He scored 2 goals last year, and if he ever hit anybody it was purely by accident.
    His contract was a little weird, he would have earned 300K more to play in the minors, his agent must be awesome.

  30. Lowetide says:

    The problem with comparing McDavid to Stamkos is that he isn’t Stamkos. He has one comparable, Sidney Crosby. If Sid had signed an 8-year deal after his entry-level deal, it would have been in the range of 97’s deal. I am not certain why people are grinding on this, but for me it’s a fairly easy transaction.

  31. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide:
    The problem with comparing McDavid to Stamkos is that he isn’t Stamkos. He has one comparable, Sidney Crosby. If Sid had signed an 8-year deal after his entry-level deal, it would have been in the range of 97’s deal. I am not certain why people are grinding on this, but for me it’s a fairly easy transaction.

    I have no quarrel with the McDavid demands.

    If Draisaitl is asking over 8M and is willing to sign an offer sheet, then I hope they get great value out of him on the trade market.

  32. VOR says:

    LT,

    First on McDavid, I agree with you. I’d do $13.25 Million for eight years in a heartbeat. I think it puts the Oilers in a cap crunch and I would still do it, because market value is market value. I think he is worth at least that much to the Oilers and probably more.

    The thing is I think most people are massively undervaluing Leon Draisaitl. I’d go $9,000,000. I wouldn’t want to but I would do it. My reason is simple. I believe he is the second most important player on the team. That makes him worth Kopitar money to me (his second contract adjusted to today dollars).

    I’d simply reconcile myself to being competitive but not a cup favorite for the next few years and then start taking serious runs at the Stanley Cup in 2022.

  33. jm363561 says:

    jtblack:
    jm363561,

    AAV of $6.7 million is a discount for a 2nd pairing PP specialist?

    =======

    Yep. A bargain …. apparently.

    “The question was whether Shattenkirk would work within the Rangers’ financial structure. They weren’t looking to add him for seven seasons. They weren’t looking a cap hit over $7.5 million, which was a potential average annual value for Shattenkirk as the prized free agent in the NHL this summer.

    He had a number of larger financial offers on the table.He chose to go home instead, for fewer years and less money.

    Shattenkirk and the Rangers agreed on a four-year, $26.6 million contract on July 1 – a much smaller contract than had been anticipated for the No. 1 player on nearly every free agent board.

    “As it comes down to the wire here, you have to look at other considerations other than money, other than term,” said Shattenkirk on TSN. “To play for the team you grew up watching, rooting for, is a lifelong goal.”

  34. VOR says:

    Ladieslovesmid,

    Once a player signs an offer sheet he can’t be traded for a year. I believe that applies whether or not his original team matches or not. I would go as far as to say if the offer sheet is too far above the players perceived value league wide he is probably going to be hard to trade for anything like fair value.

  35. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    So Crosby and Malkin both signed 5 year deals for their second contracts, right?

    It’s what the Oilers should be doing, too.

    Here’s scenario 1:
    McDavid 13.25 x8
    Draisaitl 9 x8

    22.25m cap hit.

    Cap goes up by 3m a year.
    75m (30% of cap) 52.75m left
    78m (28.5% of cap) 55.75m left
    81m (27.5% of cap) 58.75m left
    84m (26.5% of cap) 61.75m left
    87m (25.5% of cap) 64.75m left
    90m (24.5% of cap) 67.75m left
    93m
    96m

    Scenario 2
    McDavid 10.5 X 5
    Draisaitl 6.75 X 5

    17.25m cap hit
    Cap goes up by 3m a year.
    75m (23.7% of cap) 57.75m left
    78m (22.8% of cap) 60.75m left
    81m (21.9% of cap) 61.75m left
    84m (21.1% of cap) 64.75m left
    87m (20.4% of cap) 67.75m left

    They then re-up for 28% of cap for UFA years
    90m (25.2m) 15m McDavid 10.2m Drai (64.8m left over)
    93m etc
    96m etc

    Scenario 2 makes so much more sense to me.
    In scenario 1 you make out great from year 5 on but you are handcuffed from signing other players to help you win. The time to compete is in the next 5 years plus…don’t want to wait until 5 years from now to have cap flexibility to add guys or have to send off Nuge in an Eberle type deal just to clear room

    Given the 5 year deal is 4 RFA years and only one UFA year it seems more than fair

  36. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    +1. We have the best player on the Planet and his contract may give us Cap issues, but as LT says; it’s a fairly easy Transaction. Thats life when you get to watch the Greatest Player of the next decade do his thing.

  37. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide:
    The problem with comparing McDavid to Stamkos is that he isn’t Stamkos. He has one comparable, Sidney Crosby. If Sid had signed an 8-year deal after his entry-level deal, it would have been in the range of 97’s deal. I am not certain why people are grinding on this, but for me it’s a fairly easy transaction.

    Meh. I always go back to how only two weeks ago we were still in the McDavid $9.7 x 8 or even maybe up to $11 x 8 is extreme, plus Draisaitl at $5.9-7.5 x 5-8.

    People were more than serious about those numbers.

    Then a random quip by some random reporters who eventually retracted their claims as simply mere guesses and Doom And Gloom© and inflated numbers descended upon the land, with the previous reasonable numbers being now poo-pooed and $13.25 x 8 being called a Garage Sale Bargain (not to mention Draisaitl’s jump up despite comparables).

    Literally in the span of a day, the feelings switched and didn’t really look back.

    Yes, I suppose his only comparable is Crosby. Maybe Kane, Ovechkin, and Malkin as well. But Stamkos is close, non?

    I do know that the talks of Tavares signing for $10 x 8 got the MSM in a huffy, and then with the Price signing…?

    But still. We’ll only know once we know.

  38. VOR says:

    NYCOIL,

    There are two problems.

    1. I am guessing that neither player would take your deals. Just because you and I think these numbers are fair (and I do agree with your numbers) doesn’t mean the players would accept. We can’t just wave some magic wand and make them sign.

    McDavid absolutely has the hammer. You can’t let him get to the end of next year without extending him because the offer sheets would be automatic and for the max. Not to mention his marketing value to the team.

    Draisaitl has the very real option of going all Andy Moog or Ryan O’Reilly. If the Oilers sign McDavid to a huge contract, and they will, then to turn that into on ice value they need support players. Draisaitl is their second best player so to maximize McDavid and maybe win a cup in your five year window you must come to a deal with Draisaitl. Again the Oilers are hooped.

    2. At the end of five years if either of these players feels like they didn’t get fair value (in other words absurd money) on these contracts they will bolt for massive money elsewhere. Somebody will offer McDavid 18 and if Draisaitl is the second coming of Anze Kopitar he will get 12 to 13 Million dollars.

    I get your idea becoming nonviable (likely to end up with the Oilers never winning a cup) around $12 and $8 for five years. This year you don’t seem to have the depth (or any way of acquiring it) to go for a cup. The next two years you are busy shedding contracts as per Scungilli slushy. Then you have two years where if the stars align you might be able to cobble together a cup contender. Then either one or both bolt or you are paying so much in salary to them that you have no hope of fielding a winner.

    This is why I think they should go with the $13.25 and $9 million for eight options.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q: Meh. I always go back to how only two weeks ago we were still in the McDavid $9.7 x 8 or even maybe up to $11 x 8 is extreme, plus Draisaitl at $5.9-7.5 x 5-8.

    People were more than serious about those numbers.

    Then a random quip by some random reporters who eventually retracted their claims as simply mere guesses and Doom And Gloom© and inflated numbers descended upon the land, with the previous reasonable numbers being now poo-pooed and $13.25 x 8 being called a Garage Sale Bargain (not to mention Draisaitl’s jump up despite comparables).

    Literally in the span of a day, the feelings switched and didn’t really look back.

    Yes, I suppose his only comparable is Crosby. Maybe Kane, Ovechkin, and Malkin as well. But Stamkos is close, non?

    I do know that the talks of Tavares signing for $10 x 8 got the MSM in a huffy, and then with the Price signing…?

    But still. We’ll only know once we know.

    I honestly thought it would be $12 million plus all along. I didn’t think it would be for eight years though, thought it would be five.

  40. VOR says:

    Professor Q,

    I don’t think the numbers you present were ever realistic. Yes, I know they were wildly discussed here and elsewhere and mentioned in the media. But they were fan fantasy numbers. Now a lot of highly connected insiders are convinced these speculations were off by a very large amount.

    Maybe all the talking head insiders are going to end up with egg on their face but I doubt it. If that were the case I think the contracts would already have been announced.

  41. Numenius says:

    jtblack:
    Lowetide,

    +1.We have the best player on the Planet and his contract may give us Cap issues, but as LT says;it’s a fairly easy Transaction.Thats life when you get to watch the Greatest Player of the next decade do his thing.

    Whenever I see someone write this, I think: “That guy hasn’t looked at the numbers and/or doesn’t care if the Oilers win a Stanley.”

    Check out Nycoil’s or Scungilli slushy’s posts above. Show us based on the numbers that there’s nothing to worry about once the top suggested contracts are in force in 2018-19.

    I don’t how a Stanley is possible under those circumstances.

  42. jtblack says:

    Pierre Lebrun just reported its a 21 yr deal for Connor. Like Gretzky’s first contract. OR NOT!

  43. VOR says:

    Numenius,

    You have a window, all be it a small one this year, then in 2018-2019, 2019-2020, and 2020-2021 you are pretty well out of luck. For the next four or five years on the other hand you are a presumptive Stanley Cup favorite. Well if your GM is reasonably competent.

    I know it doesn’t sound logical but the only way out of the cap dilemma the Oilers are facing appears to be through the looking glass.

  44. Southern Oil says:

    I have been seeing a push – especially on twitter among some Oil fans – to sign Jagr. I certainly wouldn’t be opposed to that. The guy I am really curious about though is Markov. What’s the story there? I looked him on puckiq – but am afraid that whole conversation is way over my head / pay grade to understand. Has he lost a step and can’t be useful?

    I’d like more RW depth / experience on the roster but I would prefer to add to the D, given Sekara’s injury (if we had to chose one over the other.)

  45. digger50 says:

    – Surely both Connor and Leon are fully aware of this entire discussion. It seems rediculous they would want to hamstring the team from winning.

    – They arrived at this point together. Leon does not hit 70 points without Connor. Same In reverse, Connor does not get to 100 without Leon. I estimate Leon to have tremendous value as well.

    – They do want paid, there can always be carreer ending injury. Longer term is also insurance against injury. But once paid the next step is to win and they know it cannot be done alone. If it’s all about money they have other ways to boost earnings, particularly in Connors case. I gotta believe these guys are having these conversations. I wonder what other pressures may be on them to “set the market”

    – I can’t believe there are no performance options written into these contracts. Pay the player regardless of how he performs? And if he is poor you can’t trade him cause of no move clause? Usual result is a player performs well and is underpaid, or underperforms and is overpaid . Seems little incentive to me: poor contracts to be working with.

    Given these options it seems better to just pay a fair price on a shorter term instead of trying for a bargain later. If you want to extend later it costs. But again should be at a fair price.

  46. jtblack says:

    Numenius,

    That guy hasn’t looked at the numbers and/or doesn’t care if the Oilers win a Stanley.”
    – I absolutely care. I just dont understand the banter that MCD & Drai should take a hometown discount because fans thinknits the right thing to do. When asked for examples over the last 4 years of said Hometown Discounts I got Stamkos and Shattenkirk.

    My ppint is that even though you or I care greatly about Stanleys; so do McD and Drai, but not at the expense of their fair market value. Sure PC will have to finesse the Cap due to these contracts AND future ones; but that shoudn’t be a surprise today; as the train has been oming down the tracks for a while.

    We are blessed to have some Amazing young players and a winning team. The Pens and Hawks have had Cap issues and continued to plug and play other parts and remain competitive everybyear. The OIlers will do the same!

    And as far as the numbers, I have crunched them. Thats why I liked the Ebs deal. And understand we couldnt keep all the Austins. And know RNH ‘s days are numbered. And thats why I am glad PC keep #22. The Oilers need cheap, quality Labor for the next decade; ! It can be done!

  47. digger50 says:

    VOR,

    I apreciate you walking me through the reality of these signings.

    One thing I walk away with was I remember listening to those people shouting that we really should make the most out of Connors ECL years. And shouting it’s not enough roster changes, the time to do something is now.

    But the Oilers have not gone that route. In fact they seem to be building a solid organization trying to strengthen it across the board. This is good right? The narrative has been don’t worry, we don’t have to win during ECL years, have patience. Most good Oilers fans have jumped aboard.

    Now we witness a huge summer of opportunity pass and it looks like another growth year. So if we are not planning to win now, and it looks like we’ll have a hard time winning later, I’m completely confused as to what the plan might be!

  48. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,
    agreed.
    Crosby’s 2nd contract had a value of 17.3% of the Cap (re: Cap Friendly). On a $75 mil Cap that number today is $13 mil. So whether ots a 5 yr or 8 yr and for $12 Mil or $14 Mil; McD’s contract will be rifht in the range of his only True comparable.

  49. Pescador says:

    I would like to make my much anticipated contract guess announcement!
    Wazzat? STFU & guess already?
    Sorry guys & lady
    $20 Million cap hit,
    Connor $12.125 x 8 = $97.
    Leon. $7.875 x 5 = $39.375.
    = Wishful thinking.

  50. VOR says:

    Digger50,

    I don’t want to come off sounding like an apologist for management. I think the plan is, and should be, to build a culture of excellence, a culture of innovation. As a consequence of this the Oilers will become a team that are always in the playoffs (like Detroit was for so long).

    Within that framework there is a more specific plan. That plan is to win multiple cups during the McDavid years, to become dynastic. I think it is possible they see the true window for that kind of sustained excellence laying four or five years in the future.

    The first cup, I think it unlikely, but it is possible could come in 2017-2018 which would certainly buy them time to build a team that can run off cup after cup. They are actually several key pieces away but sometimes luck will out and the right two additions could solidify a cup team. They just can’t use up valuable resources chasing those pieces and it appears Chiarelli is well aware of that.

  51. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide:
    The problem with comparing McDavid to Stamkos is that he isn’t Stamkos. He has one comparable, Sidney Crosby. If Sid had signed an 8-year deal after his entry-level deal, it would have been in the range of 97’s deal. I am not certain why people are grinding on this, but for me it’s a fairly easy transaction.

    Will you put up a 2018-2019 Capfriendly roster to show how you form a Cup challenging team with 13.25M and whatever you think Draisaitl should make please?

  52. Numenius says:

    jtblack,

    Hey, thanks for your detailed response. You’re more optimistic than me but I’m glad we can have a friendly conversation about it.

  53. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    Scungilli slushy,

    If you paid Connor McDavid $13.25 Million per year and Leon Draisaitl $9,000,000 per year and cap trends continued the way things have been going you would end up hitting your magic 25% of cap at the beginning of 2021-2022. That would be your first real window to win a cup.

    The more I thought about it the more I think Striatic (posted near the end of the last thread) is on to something and Draisaitl may be holding out for the same contract Anze Kopitar got coming out of his ELC, at least in terms of % cap hit 11.97%. That would be a cap hit of $8,978,873 so basically $9,000,000.

    Good for Leon, what do the Oilers need? That’s all I care about. Most players come and go, few stay in our sports lives for 20 years. The team is whom we support at the end of the day.

  54. Jaxon says:

    Crosby’s 8.7 of a 56.7 in 2008-2009 works out to 15.344% on a 5 yr deal.
    15.344% of an estimated $77M cap next season works out to $11.815M on a 5 yr deal.
    So maybe on an 8 year deal it should be a bit higher. But 13.25M? Not sure. It will definitely handicap the team for the next 5 or so years.

    Try doing a 2018-2019 roster with McDavid at $13.25M and Draisaitl at $9.815M. It’s impossible. Nugent-Hopkins has to be gone before next season. Maroon is likely gone as well. The rest of the roster is filled with ELCs.

    I traded Nuge’s $6M for Gallagher’s $3.75M but I don’t think that’s enough savings.

    Will Nurse and Benning sign for less than $2M? I doubt it.
    Will Nurse even be on the team? If you can’t pay him and you can’t trade Sekera or Russell, and you shouldn’t trade Klefbom, then Nurse is the one to go.

    Will Broissot or Ellis sign for less than $1.25M?

    What will Slepyshev, Caggiula, and Strome get on their next contracts? $6.75M for all three? I doubt it.

    The roster I came up with has Benson, Khaira, LaLeggia, Strome, Caggiula, Gambardella, Puljujarvi, Slepyshev and Kassian.

    And that would be Puljujarvi’s last year on his ELC and if he plays okay, he’ll be getting a big raise too the following year.

    In the end, I’m not sure the McDavid, Draisaitl contracts bother me. I hope they’re lower ($11M & 8M?), but it’s Lucic’s, Sekera’s and Russell’s that bother me most. Sekera less so. Lucic’s is F$%#^in’ terrible, and so is Russell’s. And the NMCs will be brutal. I’d rather have 3 x $2M or 2 x $3M players to fill out the roster than Lucic. Or 5 x $2M players rather than Lucic and Russell.

    Can someone please send McDavid and Draisaitl a link to a Capfriendly 2018-2018 Armchair GM page? Do they want to win cups?

    Nuge – gone (and no solid NHLer coming back because the entire salary has to come off the books)
    Nurse – gone (and no solid NHLer coming back because the entire salary has to come off the books)
    Maroon – gone (and no solid NHLer coming back because the entire salary has to come off the books)
    Letestu – gone (and no solid NHLer coming back because the entire salary has to come off the books)

    This Roster has $500,000 in cap space next season (2018-2019)
    Benson – McDavid – Strome
    Lucic – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi
    Khaira – Caggiula – Slepyshev
    LaLeggia – Gambardella – Kassian
    Rattie

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Benning
    Russell – Bear
    Paigin – Gryba

    Talbot
    Ellis

    EDIT: players lost since this spring’s playoff run: Eberle, Pouliot, Nugent-Hopkins, Maroon, Letestu, Nurse, Pitlick, Reinhart.

    YIKES

  55. N64 says:

    VOR:
    Digger50,

    I don’t want to come off sounding like an apologist for management. I think the plan is, and should be, to build a culture of excellence, a culture of innovation. As a consequence of this the Oilers will become a team that are always in the playoffs (like Detroit was for so long).

    Within that framework there is a more specific plan. That plan is to win multiple cups during the McDavid years, to become dynastic. I think it is possible they see the true window for that kind of sustained excellence laying four or five years in the future.

    The first cup, I think it unlikely, but it is possible could come in 2017-2018 which would certainly buy them time to build a team that can run off cup after cup. They are actually several key pieces away but sometimes luck will out and the right two additions could solidify a cup team. They just can’t use up valuable resources chasing those pieces and it appears Chiarelli is well aware of that.

    Think you are largely right. A long stable window and then multiple opportunist paths: rising cap or breakout prospects or rental or one year playoff ready vets.

  56. Professor Q says:

    jtblack,

    It was only 15.4%.

  57. LadiesloveSmid says:

    VOR:
    Ladieslovesmid,

    Once a player signs an offer sheet he can’t be traded for a year. I believe that applies whether or not his original team matches or not. I would go as far as to say if the offer sheet is too far above the players perceived value league wide he is probably going to be hard to trade for anything like fair value.

    Ya I just more so mean that if his camp is willing to sign outside of Edmonton to get 8+M then I hope they trade him before it happens.

  58. Scungilli Slushy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    So Crosby and Malkin both signed 5 year deals for their second contracts, right?

    It’s what the Oilers should be doing, too.

    Here’s scenario 1:
    McDavid 13.25 x8
    Draisaitl 9 x8

    22.25m cap hit.

    Cap goes up by 3m a year.
    75m (30% of cap) 52.75m left
    78m (28.5% of cap) 55.75m left
    81m (27.5% of cap) 58.75m left
    84m (26.5% of cap) 61.75m left
    87m (25.5% of cap) 64.75m left
    90m (24.5% of cap) 67.75m left
    93m
    96m

    Scenario 2
    McDavid 10.5 X 5
    Draisaitl 6.75 X 5

    17.25m cap hit
    Cap goes up by 3m a year.
    75m (23.7% of cap) 57.75m left
    78m (22.8% of cap) 60.75m left
    81m (21.9% of cap) 61.75m left
    84m (21.1% of cap) 64.75m left
    87m (20.4% of cap) 67.75m left

    They then re-up for 28% of cap for UFA years
    90m (25.2m) 15m McDavid 10.2m Drai (64.8m left over)
    93m etc
    96m etc

    Scenario 2 makes so much more sense to me.
    In scenario 1 you make out great from year 5 on but you are handcuffed from signing other players to help you win. The time to compete is in the next 5 years plus…don’t want to wait until 5 years from now to have cap flexibility to add guys or have to send off Nuge in an Eberle type deal just to clear room

    Given the 5 year deal is 4 RFA years and only one UFA year it seems more than fair

    I would listen to the man who lived and died by understanding money and trends (he says successfully :)), at least he did at one time. I don’t want to be locked into watching McDavid locked into a no win situation, hoping that in five years he’ll/we’ll have a chance, assuming Bettman doesn’t change the ground rules again before the appointed time.

    Been there, done that. No player comes before what is a strong chance to do the only thing that is the whole point. Not doom and gloom, business straight up. I want the team to win as soon as possible and stay a winner, proceeding in a creative and responsible way; nobody knows the future.

  59. Lowetide says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Will you put up a 2018-2019 Capfriendly roster to show how you form a Cup challenging team with 13.25M and whatever you think Draisaitl should make please?

    We’re never going to agree on this, let’s just move on. Connor McDavid is going to make $13.25 million times eight, the contract is going to be signed later this week (probably). If he is on the roster, a competent general manager is going to be able to put this team into contention each spring. Connor McDavid is that good. Seriously.

  60. N64 says:

    Pescador:
    I would like to make my much anticipated contract guess announcement!
    Wazzat? STFU & guess already?
    Sorry guys & lady
    $20 Million cap hit,
    Connor $12.125 x 8 = $97.
    Leon. $7.875 x 5 = $39.375.
    = Wishful thinking.

    I’m going to go with a scenario that is more expensive AND more optimistic.

    21 million cap hit.
    168 over 8 years.

    Yeah it’s probably closer to 22 to get 8 from both.

  61. Lowetide says:

    I’ll guess:

    McDavid $13.25 times 8 (not a guess, it has been reported)
    Leon $6 million times 2

  62. jm363561 says:

    Jaxon,

    Great post! The Crosby equivalent of $11.8m is what I am (still) hoping for. The Lucic contract looks to be a real killer. RNH is going, going, gone, soon. Hopefully Yamo is getting with the program and pumping iron and eating Big Whoppers five times a day.

    Now we all need to be honest here – has it just very very briefly crossed anyone’s mind what we might get back if we traded Connor?

    In the mean time we live in hope these latest rumoured amounts are inflated.

  63. pocession charge says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    nobody knows the future.

    There is One who knows the future. He’s never wrong.

  64. Lowetide says:

    jm363561:
    Jaxon,

    Now we all need to be honest here – has it just very very briefly crossed anyone’s mind what we might get back if we traded Connor?

    No. Not one time.

  65. Pescador says:

    Lowetide: No. Not one time.

    I already know what we get back in return,
    Mediocrity

  66. Thinker says:

    I just have a hard time seeing where we can reasonably save cap. Nuge as 3C. Lucic as 2LW, but maroon is underpaid to be a 1 LW, so you can swap parts, but can’t really save money there. Our first pairing is dirt cheap, and the second pairing eats away at that a little bit. Still have a hard time seeing where you save cap on defence while retaining quality. Not really anywhere to cut on goalie. Meanwhile there is a boatload of under a million players who will need to make some money at some point, and we can’t even afford to pay the duo right now without going over.

  67. Thinker says:

    jm363561:
    Jaxon,

    Great post!The Crosby equivalent of $11.8m is what I am (still) hoping for. The Lucic contract looks to be a real killer. RNH is going, going, gone, soon. Hopefully Yamo is getting with the program and pumping iron and eating Big Whoppers five times a day.

    Now we all need to be honest here – has it just very very briefly crossed anyone’s mind what we might get back if we traded Connor?

    In the mean time we live in hope these latest rumoured amounts are inflated.

    Chia would probably get Nylander for McDavid.

  68. Evilas says:

    My initial thoughts, way before Friedman came out with his 8 yr x $13.25 million deal, were that we would see Connor on a 3 x $10 million and Leon on a 3 x $7 million bridge deal. I don’t know how Drai could have a problem with this scenario. IMO, that would be the best possible outcome.

    In the days before the salary cap and when Gretzky was still wearing the blue and orange (and I was roughly in my mid-teens), I had thought that there should be a defined salary structure for NHL players, much like in the real world where there is a base salary, which increases with tenure and a bonus structure based on performance. That way you aren’t caught with albatross contracts for non-performers. It.makes so much sense, we will never see that happen, but in the end I think it could prove more.beneficial to more players.

  69. Evilas says:

    I’ve been looking at prospect video lately. I doubt it would happen, but just thinking of the Bakersfield PP set-up, they could potentially have Mantha and Paigin on the point and Bear in the Ovechkin, sorry, Letestu position. That would give goalies and shot blockers a few nightmares….

  70. Pescador says:

    Evilas:
    I’ve been looking at prospect video lately.I doubt it would happen, but just thinking of the Bakersfield PP set-up, they could potentially have Mantha and Paigin on the point and Bear in the Ovechkin, sorry, Letestu position.That would give goalies and shot blockers a few nightmares….

    You might be evil,
    but I like you

  71. Revolved says:

    I will register a guess of:
    Connor: 13.125 x 8
    Leon: 7.5 x 5

    Next summer will hurt, as we may lose Nuge, Maroon and/or Nurse, but that kind of turnover is the reality of being a contender and why having a competent GM and procurement team is even more important once you start competing.

    Has anyone else considered what we would be talking about if we didn’t win Connor? I think we would have missed the playoffs this year and would miss next year… Yuck!

  72. Evilas says:

    Pescador,

    Well, why thank you!

    And even though you kinda smell a little bit like la trucha, I like you too man!

    But I have to ask…..you didn’t have anything to do with the disappearance of the Semi Legendary Rot Lobster, did you?

  73. Jaxon says:

    Lowetide: No. Not one time.

    Yup, never crossed my mind once, either. Would be franchise suicide. Not a good idea.

  74. JDI says:

    Jaxon: Yup, never crossed my mind once, either. Would be franchise suicide. Not a good idea.

    The Lindros trade turned out pretty good for Quebec Colorado.

  75. jake70 says:

    On PTS yesterday, McCowan and rest of roundtable discussed the 97/29 contract situation for a good 5 minutes or so. One idea they mentioned (might have been brought up here not sure), which is too late now, but would have been to get Draisaitl done first, come in at 8M max. Then turn their attention to McDAvid and give him his 13+. Maybe they attempted that, who knows. Who the hell leaked the 13.25M for 97 anyway?? Was it Comey? I bet it was Comey! Fake news!!! bah! 😉

  76. Gret99zky says:

    jm363561:
    Jaxon,

    Now we all need to be honest here – has it just very very briefly crossed anyone’s mind what we might get back if we traded Connor?

    Never.

    This would rival the Gretzky sale.

  77. jp says:

    jm363561:
    Jaxon,

    Now we all need to be honest here – has it just very very briefly crossed anyone’s mind what we might get back if we traded Connor?

    The cap hit of the return would be well north of $13.25M by the time it was useful at the NHL level.

  78. Professor Q says:

    JDI: The Lindros trade turned out pretty good for Quebec Colorado.

    If only we could obtain Price as well, then?

  79. McNuge93 says:

    jake70:
    On PTS yesterday, McCowan and rest of roundtable discussed the 97/29 contract situation for a good 5 minutes or so. One idea they mentioned (might have been brought up here not sure), which is too late now, but would have been to get Draisaitl done first, come in at 8M max. Then turn their attention to McDAvid and give him his 13+.Maybe they attempted that, who knows.Who the hell leaked the 13.25M for 97 anyway?? Was it Comey? I bet it was Comey! Fake news!!!bah!

    I was watching that too. One thing I can say. They don’t know what they are talking about. McKopwn and co. were thinking Drai has one more year and cannot yet be offer sheeted. they also were talking about how Drai is justified because he might be as good as McD. They also were talking about the Leafs should extend Matthews right now because he’ll be cheaper. well they can’t extend him until next year. They know baseball but nothing about hockey.

  80. Jaxon says:

    Dee Dee: He scored 2 goals last year, and if he ever hit anybody it was purely by accident.
    His contract was a little weird, he would have earned 300K more to play in the minors, his agent must be awesome.

    The stats don’t seem to support that he doesn’t hit. He sits 131st in the league for hits/gp. That would be the 4th most for forwards on every team in the league of players that played 41 games (half season) or more (returns 381 forward records or 4 lines per team (372) plus 9).

  81. Lowetide says:

    The problem with getting Leon done first? Why would Leon do that? Speeds mentioned it on SSE this past Saturday.

  82. magneto says:

    The Sea Dogs seem to think that Safin is playing for them this year-

    Georgie continued: “We put a lot of work into the Import Draft this season and are very pleased with the result. We were able to select two players that fill very important needs for our team and that our fans in Saint John will enjoy. Ostap and Radim know each other and have played together. They both look forward to playing together again this upcoming season in Saint John. We are pleased to have them as part of the Sea Dogs family and Saint John community.”

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