CRUEL SUMMER

Mrs. Lowetide shops every aisle. Even if she’s getting five items, that’s how she does it. Drives me looney. If you have five items, you strategically map out the most efficient route and then deploy! No sir. She starts in produce and finishes in dairy. Both Mrs. Lowetide and me would have difficulty with the Peter Chiarelli shopping plan. He appears to be avoiding the main store altogether, preferring to hit the roll-end shops and Taber corn trucks. There are clear needs on this team (RH second pairing, first-person shooter) but the Oilers aren’t in on free agency at this time.

JESSE, ANTON, JUJHAR AND THE DRAKE 

As mentioned in yesterday’s post, it is fairly clear the Oilers are devoted to the youngsters on each wing. LW’s Drake Caggiula and Jujhar Khaira, along with RW’s Jesse Puljujarvi and Anton Slepyshev, represent 50 percent of a starting eight wingers. If they all make the opening night lineup, there’ll be no place to hide. The hope is these men gain experience and are able to play at pace. Certainly Caggiula and Slepyshev performed well down the stretch in the playoffs this spring.

JAROMIR, JAROME, JAROME, JAROMIR

Once Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are signed, perhaps there will be money for a veteran winger. I wonder if the Oilers will prefer to give the young wingers a full shot, say through the end of December, to find their way? We did see some chem with Drake Caggiula on 97’s wing, and with Lucic-Draisaitl-Slepyshev during the playoffs. What about Puljujarvi? Perhaps on a line with Patrick Maroon and the Nuge.

CURRENT 50-MAN LIST

  • The 50-man list is at 46 (plus two slide rules), so we’re getting close now. Teams often run at 48 out of 50, so there’s room for two more names comfortably.
  • I would like to drop a three-for-one reference in here just in case it happens. Always be watchful!
  • If this is it (doo wop) then Peter Chiarelli is going to be very active at the deadline. Question: Buyer or seller? I kid. My roster has Brad Malone, Iiro Pakarinen and Mark Fayne opening night. The deadline will see movement.
  • Andrej Sekera better be sitting in one of those Bojnice hot springs with all the youthful waters that inspire good health. Damnable Getzlaf!

TYLER BENSON

Rob Tychkowski has an excellent update on Tyler Benson, he’s skating and at orientation camp but they are taking it slow. The sequence of injuries according to the article was:

  • Two years ago, cyst on his spine.
  • Last fall, shoulder.
  • Last winter, groin issue after 30 games (likely connected to the cyst).
  • Source

Lots in there, make sure to read it. I didn’t include the quotes from Benson and Rick Carriere, they are vital to the article. Benson remains a substantial prospect but a strong final season in junior would be a Godsend.

VALUE CONTRACTS

In 2005-06, the last time Edmonton made it to the SCF’s, there were six value contracts. Here they are in alpha order:

  • Marc Andre Bergeron ($931k).
  • Ales Hemsky ($901,740).
  • Shawn Horcoff ($1M).
  • Fernando Pisani ($611,800).
  • Jarret Stoll ($501,600).
  • Raffi Torres ($875,000).

That was a tremendous cluster of young talent, and Mr. Hemsky is still going. He caused quite a stir yesterday among Oilers fans who didn’t realize they still loved him. At Lowetide, we have always kept a light on, would have been fabulous to see him here. Here are my nominees for value contracts in 2016-17 (need six):

  • Connor McDavid $.925M (plus $2.850M in bonus) ($3.775 million total)
  • Ryan Strome $2.5M
  • Patrick Maroon $1.5M
  • Anton Slepyshev $.925M (plus $.600M in bonus) ($1.525 million total)
  • Drake Caggiula $.925M (plus $.425M in bonus) ($1.350 million total)
  • Matt Benning $.925M (plus $.300M in bonus) ($1.225 million total)
  • Darnell Nurse $.863M (plus $.850M in bonus) ($1.713333 million total)

I have seven names but not all of these will be value deals. Mark Letestu was a value deal last season, could be again. I have a feeling Ryan Strome and or Jesse Puljujarvi might grab some of that 5×4 time. Zack Kassian could also be a value deal. Cam Talbot, too.

We had a chat last night about the McDavid contract, a growing number of people who comment here believe 97’s next contract will make it impossible to win Stanley. I would argue the exact opposite: McDavid’s presence alone makes all of the next seasons possible Destination Stanley. Peter Chiarelli’s job is easier than, say, Doug Wilson’s, just because 97. I am absolutely convinced this is true. What can PC do in order to make this team succeed? One way is to find value contracts.

It’s going to be a long summer, methinks. Leon Draisaitl and the Edmonton Oilers may be as much as $2 million apart according to reports. If that was true, you could meet in the middle ($8.5 million) and call it a day. This looks like an aggressive agent finding a proud and determined young hockey player, and it’s Thelma & Louise final scene, balls out serious. I cannot tell you how many times I’ve seen this, only that it rarely ever ends well.

We can agree that $9 million is too much and that $7 million is at least somewhat acceptable on an eight-year deal. This should get done, but it takes two sides willing and we’re not there yet. Is Germany in the Olympics? If PC pays Leon $9 million times eight, we’re looking at a new world order in terms of salaries given out to young players. Veterans will get screwed, the deals signed by Edmonton earlier in the summer (Russell) instantly an albatross. The agent is attempting to change the market, in an effort to slice the money pie in a different way. In a way, the Oilers and their negotiations with Leon Draisaitl may set the stage for the biggest change in the weather this century. The big money may be gone for even good NHL players by the time they reach 30 if this deal happens.

I’d say quietly shop him but how is that possible?

ANDREI MARKOV

Ridiculous he’s still out there, wonder if he would be willing to take a one-year deal with the Oilers. PC could use the Andrej Sekera LTIR money on him, slow play Sekera’s return to make the cap work. Thoughts?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back in action this morning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Oilers Nation. Jon will make sense of this past weekend.
  • Derek Taylor, TSN Details. CFL Week Two was a lot of fun! Injuries piling up for Eskimos.
  • Jeff Veillette, Leafs Nation. Patrick Marleau is a Maple Leaf!
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. The Leon gap.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

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283 Responses to "CRUEL SUMMER"

« Older Comments
  1. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: No. McDavid’s percentage of cap comes in right where his comparable (Crosby) would have had he also signed an 8-year deal at the same career point 97 lands now.

    But Crosby played his entire 2 first seasons (minus 4 games) while Connor missed nearly half his rookie season.

    If we’re getting hung up on sample size for Leon, shouldn’t the same apply to Connor in the assignment of his comps?

  2. Bag of Pucks says:

    Side: Leon did great in the playoffs for sure.But I would hope the Oilers learned their lesson from the 2006 playoffs, where they gave hefty contract extensions to players based on their 2006 playoff performance and they were not able to produce at the same level after that.

    If Leon was paid $9 mil, my biggest fear is that he becomes #2 C and starts putting up 50-60 points on his own line, away from a Hall or McDavid.

    People are already losing their minds over Connor for potentially getting $13 mil.I can’t imagine how many people will react when they see their $9 million dollar #2 C putting up only 50-60 points.

    And if Drai doesn’t play #2 C, then why are we paying him $9 million to be a winger?

    Horcoff, Pisani, etc. didn’t kill the regular season in points production to the extent that Leon did.

    I get why Oiler fans feel burned over those contracts, but Leon shouldn’t pay the price for Lowe’s poor skills.

  3. vinotintazo says:

    Bag of Pucks: But Crosby played his entire 2 first seasons (minus 4 games) while Connor missed nearly half his rookie season.

    If we’re getting hung up on sample size for Leon, shouldn’t the same apply to Connor in the assignment of his comps?

    he put up a Triple award season after his unfortunate injury and played 82 + all playoff games. Not sure that is a small sample size.

  4. Bag of Pucks says:

    Honestly, I think this will be much ado over nothing.

    Leon’s camp is coming in high at $9 and Chiarelli is likely camping at $7. They’ll split the difference. We’ll all grumble a bit and then hope like hell the players cover the bet.

  5. PunjabiOil says:

    Stauffer:

    1. Preparing us for a RNH trade (not sure now or down the road). Mentioned Arizona has interest.
    2. Connor’s contract could end up being 13.5M
    3. No wingers/UFAs until next summer.

    Enjoy.

  6. Bag of Pucks says:

    vinotintazo: he put up a Triple award season after his unfortunate injury and played 82 + all playoff games. Not sure that is a small sample size.

    It’s as small as Leon’s sample. 8th in regular season scoring. 8th in playoff scoring. Not Hart and Lindsay, but not chopped liver either.

    Seriously, Gaudreau? Leon will be eating ‘Johnny Hockey’s’ lunch for the next 9 years.

  7. leadfarmer says:

    Yeah not a big fan of people painting Drai as greedy when McDavid wants to be the highest paid player in the league by 3 million dollars when the good portion of that is RFA when he should be a discount. Drai wants to be paid like Getzlaf, Perry and Voracek. Not too unreasonable. McDavid wants to fire cap structure into the sun. I’m sure they will come to an agreement

  8. Munny says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Stauffer:

    1.Preparing us for a RNH trade (not sure now or down the road).Mentioned Arizona has interest.
    2.Connor’s contract could end up being 13.5M
    3.No wingers/UFAs until next summer.

    Enjoy.

    Those all seem pretty obvious.

  9. Thinker says:

    How would this blog have treated the Eberle signing in retrospect? I think that gives us the best idea of how we should treat Leon.

  10. Side says:

    Bag of Pucks: Horcoff, Pisani, etc. didn’t kill the regular season in points production to the extent that Leon did.

    I get why Oiler fans feel burned over those contracts, but Leon shouldn’t pay the price for Lowe’s poor skills.

    If Leon does get $9 million, what will be your expectations of him going forward? Should he run his own line? Should he keep playing with McDavid as a winger? And what numbers will you be expecting him to put up going forward?

    Not trying to be a dink at all, lol, I’m genuinely curious. $9 million comes with a lot of expectations.

  11. Bag of Pucks says:

    speeds: How does this mesh with your argument re: Draisaitl vs. McDavid and their relative pay?

    Hey, I’ll readily admit that my appreciation of Leon as a player can get in the way of pristine objectivity, but I do what I can to keep the logic scales balanced.

    LT says as much about RNH.

    We all have our favourites!

  12. PunjabiOil says:

    Those all seem pretty obvious.

    Not to me.

    Obvious/sensible play would be to sign a veteran free agent on a 1 year contract.

    Oilers are hell bent to put their younger players in a position to fail, in roster spots in the lineup they haven’t earned.

  13. Thinker says:

    leadfarmer:
    Yeah not a big fan of people painting Drai as greedy when McDavid wants to be the highest paid player in the league by 3 million dollars when the good portion of that is RFA when he should be a discount.Drai wants to be paid like Getzlaf, Perry and Voracek.Not too unreasonable.McDavid wants to fire cap structure into the sun.I’m sure they will come to an agreement

    I agree. There are guys who have made $14 in raw dollars, but McDavid’s cap hit is like a second liner and Toews/ Kane. You have to do the deal because he is the Franchise, but there is no doubt he is asking for a ridiculous amount.

  14. vinotintazo says:

    Bag of Pucks: Seriously, Gaudreau? Leon will be eating ‘Johnny Hockey’s’ lunch for the next 9 years.

    Agree here not even a flames fan would take Gaudreau over Drai.

  15. VOR says:

    speeds,

    I am using Kopitar a) because Draisaitl has made it very clear Kopitar is the player he has modeled his career on and b) because Lowetide and a lot of others keep using Sidney Crosby as the comparable contract for McDavid. Kopitar signed in 2009 and didn’t Crosby sign in 2008.

    So if Crosby is your chosen comparable for McDavid why can’t Kopitar be mine for Draisaitl?

  16. Bag of Pucks says:

    Side: If Leon does get $9 million, what will be your expectations of him going forward?Should he run his own line? Should he keep playing with McDavid as a winger? And what numbers will you be expecting him to put up going forward?

    Not trying to be a dink at all, lol, I’m genuinely curious.$9 million comes with a lot of expectations.

    I think he should’ve been a 2C yesterday. Expectations being he drives the line and scores at a .ppg rate consistent with the 12 best C in the league by year 2 of the contract and onward.

    The points expectation is tough because so much of it is dependent on deployment and pp time. Will Leon eventually eat the tough match to free up Connor or does McDavid draw that in perpetuity? As we’ve so often seen, that can depend on who has the hot hand and hot linemates.

    The other thing is, I don’t think you want to place all the expectations for contract performance on offensive goals. What if Draisaitl morphs into a Kopitar or Bergeron. Would you be upset if he’s a dominant 200ft C in contention for the Selke every year and only scoring 65-70 points? That sounds a lot like Toews to me. I would take that.

  17. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks: But Crosby played his entire 2 first seasons (minus 4 games) while Connor missed nearly half his rookie season.

    If we’re getting hung up on sample size for Leon, shouldn’t the same apply to Connor in the assignment of his comps?

    This comparison (if its good enough for Connor, why should it not apply to Leon) misses the point.

    Leon is a very good player. But he is in the range of the top 30-40 players in the league. He can be replaced, not easily, but he can be replaced. The Oilers can get a 2 C elsewhere and be very good with Connor 1C

    McDavid is the best 20- 25 yr old in the NHL and one of the top 2 players in the league. He is irreplaceable. His presence means that 25-35 % of the time the Oilers have the best player on the ice, and one that can dominate. That’s a massive advantage that flows all through the lineup. And if you lock him up, you are really guaranteeing a competitive team for as long as he is around.

    And you can’t pay them both huge bucks.

    If you think Leon should make $9 million, then you think he should be traded, because the math does not work after this year.

  18. leadfarmer says:

    People who compare the Crosby second contract to Mcdavids potential contract fail to take account of the salary cap environment. When Crosby signed that contract it was expected that the salary cap was going to rise fairly sharply. So while those numbers look similar as a percentage at initial signing the cap was expected to make that number shrink fairly quickly. We are in a flat cap era now. Maybe even worse since the Nhlpa just had to use a 5% escalator so cap didn’t go down.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Thinker:
    How would this blog have treated the Eberle signing in retrospect? I think that gives us the best idea of how we should treat Leon.

    Everyone was very pleased. :-

    http://lowetide.ca/2012/08/30/eberle-signs/

  20. Ducey says:

    vinotintazo: Agree here not even a flames fan would take Gaudreau over Drai.

    They might if he is $9 million/ yr

  21. Thinker says:

    Lowetide: No. McDavid’s percentage of cap comes in right where his comparable (Crosby) would have had he also signed an 8-year deal at the same career point 97 lands now.

    This is inaccurate. It is basically 2 million more with crosby’s percentage. Only guy close is ovechkin, which would work out to 12.5. Not to mention the long stretch that these teams struggled. Under the weight of these contracts.

  22. Gret99zky says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    We’ll all grumble a bit and then hope like hell the players cover the bet.

    Lord have mercy if he doesn’t cover the bet. Imagine missing the playoffs because Drai under-achieves?

    Side: If Leon does get $9 million, what will be your expectations of him going forward?Should he run his own line? Should he keep playing with McDavid as a winger? And what numbers will you be expecting him to put up going forward?

    Not trying to be a dink at all, lol, I’m genuinely curious.$9 million comes with a lot of expectations.

    I would say 80-90 pts per regular season is reasonable for $9M. Which is highly improbable. (Crosby did it 8 times, Malkin 4 times, Getzlaf 3, Kopitar 1, Toews 0)

    Good luck, Leon.

  23. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bag of Pucks: And yet ironically, Leon outscores him (handily) in their first playoffs together.

    Incidentally, you would hope to hell the team never plays them off each other like this in the contract talks. Worst team building exercise EVER!

    I think it’s really important to remember that if Leon was playing on a team without McDavid he would have been keyed on and very likely not scored the same.

    How would Malkin be if the the other team didn’t have to shut the best player in the world down first?

    I don’t know if they can keep Leon’s number down, but players and agents have to recognize the effect on their numbers. If they want to stay.

    I hope Leon’s contract is moveable. If not that might end up a real kick in the pants.

  24. leadfarmer says:

    Salaries top players going through the roof. Secondary players to follow. That combined with flat cap can only mean one thing.

    Lockout!!

    That time every decade when the NHL shoots itself in the foot and proves why it is an afterthought in American sports. When is the last time the NFL shut down for a half a season. And their contracts aren’t even guaranteed.

  25. Side says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    The other thing is, I don’t think you want to place all the expectations for contract performance on offensive goals. What if Draisaitl morphs into a Kopitar or Bergeron. Would you be upset if he’s a dominant 200ft C in contention for the Selke every year and only scoring 65-70 points? That sounds a lot like Toews to me. I would take that.

    Yeah this is where the divide is for me. $9 million and you’re kinda hoping Drai keeps going forward in performance and morphs into a Kopitar/Bergeron/Toews.

    But then… what if he doesn’t? My preference would be for him to do a bridge or a shorter term deal so if in a couple of years he does morph into a Kopitar/Bergeron/Toews, then he can be paid as such.

    9×8 seems very much like a “hope for the best!” type of deal in my eyes.

  26. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey:

    If you think Leon should make $9 million, then you think he should be traded, because the math does not work after this year.

    I don’t.

    I think Leon should top out at $8M and Connor at $12.5M. $20.5M for the pair.

    Kane and Toews make $21M per season, earned off the backs of multiple Cup wins.

    If our pair wants to out-earn them, put in a renegotiation/escalator clause that triggers after their 2nd Cup win.

  27. misfit says:

    Leon Draisaitl has been my favourite Oiler for as long as he’s been one. but if it’s going to take $9M x 8 to get him signed, then I’d strongly consider trading him right now while teams still think he’s worth it.

    Kopitar has a $10M cap hit. Benn’s is $9.5M. Draisaitl could very well be a player comparable to both of those guys, but both of those two players had a proven track record beyond a single season playing shotgun to the best player in the world. Even though from Draisaitl’s perspective, I’d imagine it would be tough to look at Giroux @ $8.275M, Voracek at $8.25M, Perry @ $8.625M, and not think he’s worth at least as much as all of those players or more, especially when all of those players signed those deals years ago with a lower cap.

  28. striatic says:

    Did the Oilers attempt to sign Draisaitl long term last summer? If not, why not?

  29. speeds says:

    VOR:
    speeds,

    I am using Kopitar a) because Draisaitl has made it very clear Kopitar is the player he has modeled his career on and b) because Lowetide and a lot of others keep using Sidney Crosby as the comparable contract for McDavid. Kopitar signed in 2009 and didn’t Crosby sign in 2008.

    So if Crosby is your chosen comparable for McDavid why can’t Kopitar be mine for Draisaitl?

    Crosby as a comp isn’t necessarily why I think the 13M ish extension is OK, but the reason I guess I would give along those lines is that there are current comparables for Draisaitl that maybe aren’t perfect, but are relatively close-ish (Kucherov, Monahan, Gaudreau, Tarasenko) and have been signed pretty recently. But there isn’t really a comp in the league for McDavid, so you have to come up with something to to pay him – it’s maybe easier to look at a historical comp if there is no current comp.

    BTW, I don’t love the “percentage of the cap” argument for McDavid either (ignores shifting league wide trends), but more readily understand it when you have nothing else.

    Additionally, the offer sheet threat is more severe for McDavid than Draisaitl – McDavid would have already received one if he were an RFA (JMO), while Draisaitl hasn’t, and it’s certainly possible that he will, but arguably more likely that he won’t (again, JMO)

  30. Munny says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Those all seem pretty obvious.

    Not to me.

    Obvious/sensible play would be to sign a veteran free agent on a 1 year contract.

    Oilers are hell bent to put their younger players in a position to fail, in roster spots in the lineup they haven’t earned.

    As in obviously the plan for the Oilers. There were no surprises in that list.

    The only veteran signing I expect might happen from the Oil is an LD, and that depends on their read on Sekera’s injury, where they have much better info than I.

    Your comment is kind of vague. Not sure which player you are talking about. Sleppy, Kassian, Strome? Khaira, Caggiula? One of the many unproven Chi and Pit players that have been thrown in to the fray and performed well? It is almost impossible to “prove” one’s self, without having an opportunity to do so. It’s up to the coach to provide the appropriate minutes and cover. It’s up to the GM to make sure this isn’t happening all over the line up.

    Always making bets as a GM, as you know. This team much better able to support a rookie than recent iterations. Time will tell on how the bet plays out…. Yamamoto?

  31. Bank Shot says:

    striatic:
    Did the Oilers attempt to sign Draisaitl long term last summer? If not, why not?

    I never heard any talk about it. My guess is that Leon likely would have wanted at least $6X6 like all the other wunderkids got.

    Seeing how two out of three of those deals backfired on the Oilers I can understand why they would be gun shy about paying a guy huge money before he earned it.

    Well now he’s earned it, and we are all praying that Draisaitl’s career doesn’t mirror Eberle’s production wise.

    Draisaitl still shouldn’t get more than $8 million tops. His comparables are Gaudreau, Tarasenko, and Kucherov, not Giroux, Kopitar, and the other UFAS.

  32. The Trade Guy says:

    If McDavid isn’t worth the max then who is?

    Plus the NHL has escrow in place so he’s probably taking home less than that.

    I know the player’s hate escrow (in spite of doing escalators) but I’m not sure what % they are losing in any given year.

    The NBA’s cap dropped this year by 2 million because the Warriors and Lebron swept everybody. I wonder how much money was lost having no Canadian teams in the playoffs a couple years ago.

  33. speeds says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    The other thing is, I don’t think you want to place all the expectations for contract performance on offensive goals. What if Draisaitl morphs into a Kopitar or Bergeron. Would you be upset if he’s a dominant 200ft C in contention for the Selke every year and only scoring 65-70 points? That sounds a lot like Toews to me. I would take that.

    That would be great. Wouldn’t it be better for the team if he did it making 7M instead of 9M?

  34. GMB3 says:

    Based on track record I think chia mismanages the cap (if he hasn’t already) and this team is blown up, and we will all be talking about what could have been

  35. Lowetide says:

    Thinker: This is inaccurate. It is basically 2 million more with crosby’s percentage. Only guy close is ovechkin, which would work out to 12.5. Not to mention the long stretch that these teams struggled. Under the weight of these contracts.

    Cap in 2007-08 was 50.3 million (I believe that’s accurate, correct me if wrong)
    Crosby signed a contract that summer that began 2008-09 was $8.7 million
    That is 17.2 percent

    PLEASE CHECK MY MATH AND FACTS, FOLKS

    Cap in 2017-18 is 75.M
    McDavid’s rumored hit is $13.25
    That is 17.67

    Looks close to me.

  36. GMB3 says:

    speeds: That would be great.Wouldn’t it be better for the team if he did it making 7M instead of 9M?

    Wouldn’t it be better for Drai and the team if he did it at 6.5 X 4 and then got a huge pay day he actually deserves potentially after 1 or 2 cups?

  37. New Improved Darkness says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    It’s as small as Leon’s sample.

    McDavid Is Back — 21 November 2016

    A ten game goalless streak staked through the heart with a hatty, leaving Connor with only 23 points accrued in 19 games.

    That was what came up in my deliberate search for a lower extremis bald patch.

    And what about his uncalled groin-pokes (received) per 60? Does that also count in your world as a “small” sample size? Well, me and at least one other guy (to hazard a wild guess) are not inclined to depict this number as a statistical fluke.

    Fluke (n.) — A metal hook on the head of certain staff weapons, made in various forms depending on function, whether used for grappling or to penetrate armour when swung at an opponent.

    Ah, now I see your point, where I didn’t before.

  38. PunjabiOil says:

    Your comment is kind of vague. Not sure which player you are talking about. Sleppy, Kassian, Strome? Khaira, Caggiula?

    All of the above and Puljujarvi.

    Can some of them handle it? Possibly. Would having some depth be more risk averse? Absolutely.

    We’ve seen this movie before. Versteeg/Puljujarvi. Schultz/Gilbert. Trading Hall because you’re comfortable Puljujarvi can be a driver.

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    speeds: That would be great.Wouldn’t it be better for the team if he did it making 7M instead of 9M?

    Duh. Of course it would, but you’re likely achieving that via a bridge deal only. Would you like to be 1 Cup win or 2 in and then face the prospect of losing Drai to FA? Cos that’s what could happen.

    This may fall under the heading of: Get good players. Keep good players.

    But we’ve already got some posters trading Drai now. Sigh….

  40. GMB3 says:

    I don’t understand how it’s in the best interest of the NHLPA to push McDavid to take the largest contract available. Same with Drai, that means Matthews, nylander, Eichel, and others will take up a larger piece of the pie, meaning less money to go around and more 32 year olds playing for a discounted salary or else they would lose their spot to inferior players on ELC’s

  41. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide: Everyone was very pleased. :-

    http://lowetide.ca/2012/08/30/eberle-signs/

    good lord there’s some gold in that thread. One of the all-time greats from
    New Improved Darkness when he went by a different name and I was reminded how much I miss “Steve Smith” and Bookje. Those two should post more, if they’re even still around.

  42. PunjabiOil says:

    Cap in 2007-08 was 50.3 million (I believe that’s accurate, correct me if wrong)
    Crosby signed a contract that summer that began 2008-09 was $8.7 million
    That is 17.2 percent

    PLEASE CHECK MY MATH AND FACTS, FOLKS

    Cap in 2017-18 is 75.M
    McDavid’s rumored hit is $13.25
    That is 17.67

    Looks close to me.

    I don’t really have a problem with McDavid getting paid. He’s earned it, and we get his services for the next 9 years in the prime of his career.

    Would it be nice to get a discount? Sure – but can’t expect it. He will still be value irrespective.

    A few points though:

    1. It’s a new benchmark – can’t really compare the landscapes in those years. Salary cap was rising quickly then, but at the same time, his deal was 5 years and not 8 as in McDavid’s.

    2. Salaries at the high end have not grown as quickly as opposed to the mid-range/lower-end. This McDavid deal will have significant impact for every star out there, and maybe it was necessary for McDavid to the pave the way.

    Draisaitl – on the other hand – and I hate to use this word – but he’s being greedy if he’s unwilling to move from his 9-10M ask. At the 7.5-8M range, that is more than fair/reasonable relative to his contributions. Oilers management have to remain firm on this.

  43. Side says:

    GMB3:
    I don’t understand how it’s in the best interest of the NHLPA to push McDavid to take the largest contract available. Same with Drai, that means Matthews, nylander, Eichel, and others will take up a larger piece of the pie, meaning less money to go around and more 32 year olds playing for a discounted salary or else they would lose their spot to inferior players on ELC’s

    Personally, I think it would be great if McDavid got $13.5 million and Toronto paid Auston “Better than McDavid” Matthews the same or higher.

  44. speeds says:

    Bag of Pucks: Duh. Of course it would, but you’re likely achieving that via a bridge deal only. Would you like to be 1 Cup win or 2 in and then face the prospect of losing Toews to FA? Cos that’s what could happen.

    This may fall under the heading of: Get good players. Keep good players.

    But we’ve already got some posters trading Drai now. Sigh….

    If Draisaitl would cost 9M to sign long term now, above his comparable group which probably tops out at 7.5M with Tarasenko, MAYBE 7.8M if you consider Kuznetsov a comp (which is somewhat debatable given the RFA/UFA disrepancy between the two players), it’s somewhat questionable how much downside there is to a bridge. Even if he “proves” himself in terms of being a top end C away from McDavid, how likely is it that he’s going to produce enough offense to cost notably more than 9M for the next deal? And even if he does cost more, you’d at least be paying it more secure in the idea that he can comfortably carry his own line.

  45. Georges says:

    Lowetide: Everyone was very pleased. :-

    http://lowetide.ca/2012/08/30/eberle-signs/

    Those were some all-star posts by some all-star posters.

  46. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: Everyone was very pleased. :-

    http://lowetide.ca/2012/08/30/eberle-signs/

    There’s a whole lot of classic DSF in that.
    Hall deal likely to go south
    Why are they paying Hall and Eberle, Booth and Burrows money?
    Ha!!!

  47. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: Cap in 2007-08 was 50.3 million (I believe that’s accurate, correct me if wrong)
    Crosby signed a contract that summer that began 2008-09 was $8.7 million
    That is 17.2 percent

    PLEASE CHECK MY MATH AND FACTS, FOLKS

    Cap in 2017-18 is 75.M
    McDavid’s rumored hit is $13.25
    That is 17.67

    Looks close to me.

    Yes, but they were expecting the cap to increase by $4-6 million annually, and it did. A time of plenty. You can use Ovechkin’s deal to supplement if you’re wary about the deal only being 5 years.

    Presently it is not expected to increase nearly that much. If it were expected to do so, then fine. Done deal.

    Dfferent context and nuances.

  48. GMB3 says:

    speeds: If Draisaitl would cost 9M to sign long term now, above his comparable group which probably tops out at 7.5M with Tarasenko, MAYBE 7.8M if you consider Kuznetsov a comp (which is somewhat debatable given the RFA/UFA disrepancy between the two players), it’s somewhat questionable how much downside there is to a bridge.Even if he “proves” himself in terms of being a top end C away from McDavid, how likely is it that he’s going to produce enough offense to cost notably more than 9M for the next deal?And even if he does cost more, you’d at least be paying it more secure in the idea that he can comfortably carry his own line.

    This is spot on

  49. Thinker says:

    Lowetide: Cap in 2007-08 was 50.3 million (I believe that’s accurate, correct me if wrong)
    Crosby signed a contract that summer that began 2008-09 was $8.7 million
    That is 17.2 percent

    PLEASE CHECK MY MATH AND FACTS, FOLKS

    Cap in 2017-18 is 75.M
    McDavid’s rumored hit is $13.25
    That is 17.67

    Looks close to me.

    It is more reasonable to use 08/09 cap since it is when te contract took effect, and cap was rising much faster, and that rise was being factored in at the time. We don’t know what the 18/19 cap will be, but the cap has been pretty stagnant, so 75 is probably still a reasonably fair guess. Tha

  50. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If Draisaitl is signed at 9M, he has to play a significant amount away from Connor, unless they are trying to catch up.

    IF he can drive his own a line with lesser players at some point, like Crosby/Malkin, the money will work out.

    If he can’t then I hope he’s moveable. It will be a lot of pressure on him, he seems like he type to respond to that.

    If next season he has to play with Connor to be effective, Nuge and Strome better come to camp with their big boy pants.

  51. Munny says:

    PunjabiOil: Trading Hall because you’re comtfortable Puljujarvi can be a driver.

    Where does this come from? Did Chia state this somewhere?

    Pretty sure GMs can dream of ideal situations as well as, if not better than we can. But they also have to face reality. I doubt “comfortable” is the right word here. Or “driver”.

    Most of the players I mentioned have at least one season in the NHL. They have earned their spots. Sleppy’s deployment this past season was a thing of beauty by TMac, IMO. And it looks like he’s arrived. Strome, Kassian are NHLers.. Caggiula has proven himself able.

    There’s enough coverage on this team to find a rawer winger some soft minutes.

  52. Lowetide says:

    Thinker: Itis more reasonable to use 08/09 cap since it is when te contract took effect, and cap was rising much faster, and that rise was being factored in at the time. We don’t know what the 18/19 cap will be, but the cap has been pretty stagnant, so 75 is probably still a reasonably fair guess. Tha

    Ah, but we are here. More reasonable doesn’t really factor, since we know not what the cap will be when the contract kicks in.

  53. Jethro Tull says:

    “I know you’re actually quite bright, but you choose to use it strangely.”

    Dead Man Walking, replying to DSF in the Eberle post. Possibly the funniest thing I have read in a long time.

  54. oilfan17 says:

    speeds: Crosby as a comp isn’t necessarily why I think the 13M ish extension is OK, but the reason I guess I would give along those lines is that there are current comparables for Draisaitl that maybe aren’t perfect, but are relatively close-ish (Kucherov, Monahan, Gaudreau, Tarasenko) and have been signed pretty recently.But there isn’t really a comp in the league for McDavid, so you have to come up with something to to pay him – it’s maybe easier to look at a historical comp if there is no current comp.

    BTW, I don’t love the “percentage of the cap” argument for McDavid either (ignores shifting league wide trends), but more readily understand it when you have nothing else.

    Additionally, the offer sheet threat is more severe for McDavid than Draisaitl – McDavid would have already received one if he were an RFA (JMO), while Draisaitl hasn’t, and it’s certainly possible that he will, but arguably more likely that he won’t (again, JMO)

    How do you know he hasn’t already received one? They’re not made public until he actually signs.

  55. classict says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I think it’s really important to remember that if Leon was playing on a team without McDavid he would have been keyed on and very likely not scored the same.

    How would Malkin be if the the other team didn’t have to shut the best player in the world down first?

    I don’t know if they can keep Leon’s number down, but players and agents have to recognize the effect on their numbers. If they want to stay.

    I hope Leon’s contract is moveable. If not that might end up a real kick in the pants.

    Agree with the message but maybe not the player comparables. Malkin won an Art Ross with 109 pts in a season Crosby only played 22 games. If Draisaitl was Malkin good I’d have no problem paying him what he wants.

  56. fifthcartel says:

    Hello everyone.

    UFA contracts and RFA contracts are not comparable. There’s a reason theyre noticeably lower. None of Kopitar/Thornton/Giroux/Voracek deals are in the conversation with Draisaitl.

    Draisaitl has 5 years of RFA service left. That is more than all of his actual comparables – Gaudreau, Scheifele, Monahan, Kucherov.

    McDavid’s number has 0 affect on Draisaitl. McDavid is so good they had to look at a similarly good player and took the % of the cap into account. Edmonton doesn’t need to do that because there are many players similar to Draisaitl.

    The rumoured ask is ~9 but if Edmonton uses their leverage, and they should, the NHL Draisaitl should come in ~7 million.

  57. John Chambers says:

    speeds: If Draisaitl would cost 9M to sign long term now, above his comparable group which probably tops out at 7.5M with Tarasenko, MAYBE 7.8M if you consider Kuznetsov a comp (which is somewhat debatable given the RFA/UFA disrepancy between the two players), it’s somewhat questionable how much downside there is to a bridge.Even if he “proves” himself in terms of being a top end C away from McDavid, how likely is it that he’s going to produce enough offense to cost notably more than 9M for the next deal?And even if he does cost more, you’d at least be paying it more secure in the idea that he can comfortably carry his own line.

    Add to that the subsequent Draisaitl contract would take him to age 31 or 32, as opposed to age 29.

    Lots of reasons why the Oilers should want to seek a bridge deal.

  58. N64 says:

    Ducey: Its based on AAV not years

    Sure. Under 6 years the no of years doesn’t matter. 🙂

    7.85M for 1-5 years is only a 1 2 and 3.

  59. speeds says:

    oilfan17,

    what I meant was signed, not received.

  60. N64 says:

    fifthcartel: Draisaitl has 5 years of RFA service left. That is more than all of his actual comparables – Gaudreau, Scheifele, Monahan, Kucherov

    Gaudreau could not sign an offer sheet. You can check the others. The claim is that the RFA years discount has eroded to where we are. Gone for franchise players. Reduced for elite. We wait.

  61. VOR says:

    Speeds,

    So what sort of bridge deal would you offer Leon Draisaitl?

  62. Bag of Pucks says:

    speeds: If Draisaitl would cost 9M to sign long term now, above his comparable group which probably tops out at 7.5M with Tarasenko, MAYBE 7.8M if you consider Kuznetsov a comp (which is somewhat debatable given the RFA/UFA disrepancy between the two players), it’s somewhat questionable how much downside there is to a bridge.Even if he “proves” himself in terms of being a top end C away from McDavid, how likely is it that he’s going to produce enough offense to cost notably more than 9M for the next deal?And even if he does cost more, you’d at least be paying it more secure in the idea that he can comfortably carry his own line.

    The dangerous assumption you’re making is that you CAN resign him. That’s the dual edged nature of the bridge. Sure, great to get the savings in the meantime. Not so great if you lose the player prematurely.

  63. N64 says:

    Bag of Pucks: The dangerous assumption you’re making is that you CAN resign him. That’s the dual edged nature of the bridge. Sure, great to get the savings in the meantime. Not so great if you lose the player prematurely.

    See Challenge.

  64. VOR says:

    Speeds,

    And why wouldn’t we then use Ovechkin and or Malkin as reasonable comparable players to McDavid?

  65. speeds says:

    Bag of Pucks: The dangerous assumption you’re making is that you CAN resign him. That’s the dual edged nature of the bridge. Sure, great to get the savings in the meantime. Not so great if you lose the player prematurely.

    Anything’s possible, but what would be the reason to think you couldn’t with 3 RFA yrs left? Why would he be willing to re-sign long term now, but not in 2 years if you’re offering market money and are a top end team?

  66. McSorley33 says:

    In Winnipeg, Trouba wanted the Sun and the Moon.

    Chevy – you are an RFA.

    Trouba – took some time…..and thought about it.

    Trouba’s cap hit next year is 2.8 million.

    We **own** Drai.

    Count be in with FifthCartel and Speeds.

    I don’t see anything wrong with a Bridge ( show me contract )…..

    Club has the leverage. Not the player.

  67. --hudson-- says:

    fifthcartel:
    McDavid’s number has 0 affect on Draisaitl.

    Actually I would disagree with this assertion. Just a few days ago, Joe Thornton gave the Sharks several options based on whether Marleau resigned or not. About a decade ago, several Detroit Red Wings took pay cuts to bring in free agents and fit under the team budget.

    Look at all of the players who are returning to the Blackhawks at a discount.

    Conceptually I think it is fair to say the value of Drai is independent from Connor, but there is a translation that happens when it gets converted into a contract and squeezed into the cap or team budget system.

  68. N64 says:

    speeds: Last summer, Gaudreau finished t-6th in NHL scoring the previous season, signed a 6 year deal, 6.75M AAV, that included 5 years before UFA and 1 UFA year.

    This summer, Draisaitl finished 8th in NHL scoring the previous season, and has 5 years before he reaches UFA status.Not entirely dissimilar!

    Not eligible for offer sheet.

  69. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bag of Pucks: The dangerous assumption you’re making is that you CAN resign him. That’s the dual edged nature of the bridge. Sure, great to get the savings in the meantime. Not so great if you lose the player prematurely.

    Any bridge has to be short, ideally leaving 2 RFA years or he will have the hammer. With two left, Pete has room to manoeuvre. If he’s great pay him, lock him for 8 and that takes him into his 30’s which is a better age to resign him (not in his peak) or trade him while his rep is still in tact.

    Resigning in the late 20’s is most expensive, at least now. It also means a long contract buying decline. Part of staying competitive is moving vet key players at the right time so the team can restock, or having contracts come up when the too long term can be avoided.

    Calgary and Vancouver blew it and it hurt them.

  70. Munny says:

    PunjabiOil: Would having some depth be more risk averse? Absolutely.

    Not that I don’t agree with this, with respect to my response above. I do.

  71. haters says:

    Quietly shop McDavid and sign Dria ! Then we have the money to extend Russell aasnnnd Lucic till their 40!

    *ducks under closest tectonic plate*

  72. speeds says:

    VOR:
    Speeds,

    And why wouldn’t we then use Ovechkin and or Malkin as reasonable comparable players to McDavid?

    Ovechkin signed a longer term deal that EDM can’t sign McDavid to, which makes it hard to do. Malkin was a bit of a couple years older, only signed 5 years, but he’s probably the best non-Crosby comp.

  73. --hudson-- says:

    speeds: Anything’s possible, but what would be the reason to think you couldn’twith 3 RFA yrs left? Why would he be willing to re-sign long term now, but not in 2 years if you’re offering market money and are a top end team?

    The straightforward line of thought is Drai’s camp is not confident he can be top 10 in scoring 2 years from now. They must feel their position on performance and fit is better now than it will be in 2 years. Maybe rightly so if Puljujarvi or Yamamoto become the defacto RW for Connor in the next 2 seasons.

    I am not sure Drai’s camp is the only one playing hardball here though. The Oilers have treated him extremely well:
    – they let him burn an ELC year very early
    – they arranged the trade to Kelowna
    – given him great linemates in the NHL
    – they didn’t fool around at all in the last game of the year against the Canucks, they let both McD and Drai earn their bonuses in a mean-nothing game.

    After all of this, I would be surprised to see him take such a strong stance.

  74. speeds says:

    N64,

    yup, that is true, that’s why I worded that that way. I was trying to illustrate that there still exists a reduced RFA rate with Gaudreau’s deal, which only covered 1 UFA year. In terms of as a comparable for Draisaitl, which I copied and pasted to use later in the thread as a response to “Bag of Pucks”, it wouldn’t have hurt to have mentioned it, as it would have added perspective.

    If the argument is that the first “RFA” year where Gaudreau wasn’t OS eligible might have decreased the value of his deal a little bit, I’d agree with that.

  75. speeds says:

    VOR:
    Speeds,

    So what sort of bridge deal would you offer Leon Draisaitl?

    It would depend on the actual state of negotiations, but I would be looking at the bridge contracts of Kucherov (4.8M, 3 years) and Panarin (6M, 2 years) as my comparables. And I wouldn’t be opposed to a long term deal either, categorically, if the price were right.

  76. --hudson-- says:

    haters:
    Quietly shop McDavid and sign Dria ! Then we have the money to extend Russell aasnnnd Lucic till their 40!

    *ducks under closest tectonic plate*

    Imagine the look on McD’s face if the Oilers extend him tomorrow, then trade Drai a day later. Here Connor your wingers next season are Kassian & Maroon – take us to the promised land.

  77. Bank Shot says:

    N64: Gaudreau could not sign an offer sheet. You can check the others. The claim is that the RFA years discount has eroded to where we are. Gone for franchise players. Reduced for elite. We wait.

    Well compared to a bunch of guys signed in the last two years, $9 million for Draisaitl looks absolutely nuts.

    There has still been a very real RFA discount in effect as Tarasenko has been the only player with a fair number of RFA years left to get over $7 million up until this point.

  78. N64 says:

    McSorley33: I don’t see anything wrong with a Bridge ( show me CHALLENGE
    contract )…..
    Club has the leverage. Not the player.

    FTFY

    Also, if you detour over the bridge the player just applied his leverage.

  79. N64 says:

    Bank Shot: Well compared to a bunch of guys signed in the last two years, $9 million for Draisaitl looks absolutely nuts.

    There has still been a very real RFA discount in effect as Tarasenko has been the only player with a fair number of RFA years left to get over $7 million up until this point.

    I think 9 is high for max years. I’d stop around 8 x 8. Also like the idea or telling agents to figure out how they’ll share 21. Ok, maybe 21.5 tops.

  80. Bag of Pucks says:

    speeds: If Draisaitl would cost 9M to sign long term now, above his comparable group which probably tops out at 7.5M with Tarasenko, MAYBE 7.8M if you consider Kuznetsov a comp (which is somewhat debatable given the RFA/UFA disrepancy between the two players), it’s somewhat questionable how much downside there is to a bridge.Even if he “proves” himself in terms of being a top end C away from McDavid, how likely is it that he’s going to produce enough offense to cost notably more than 9M for the next deal?And even if he does cost more, you’d at least be paying it more secure in the idea that he can comfortably carry his own line.

    Ok, you’ve convinced me the line in the sand for the bridge is $7.5 M. If Leon insists on north of that, bridge him.

    That said, it’s a shame if that occurs cos Connor’s at $13.5. Thrilled to have him for 8 years, but that cap hit does the team no favours.

  81. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bank Shot: Well compared to a bunch of guys signed in the last two years, $9 million for Draisaitl looks absolutely nuts.

    There has still been a very real RFA discount in effect as Tarasenko has been the only player with a fair number of RFA years left to get over $7 million up until this point.

    I think you mean for forwards but Ekblad has as well.

  82. limit says:

    So Nuge for Dylan Strome?

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