HURRY TOMORROW

If you are young, you don’t know. So I will tell you. There was a time in this fair land when the Edmonton Oilers ruled all, when giants walked among us. Luck and smarts, Glen Sather and Barry Fraser, perspired and conspired, and built the most pleasing hockey team the human eye had ever seen. Sadly, that wonderful team was ripped apart by unstable ownership, outside pressures like salary explosions and competition for talent.

Hurry tomorrow.

CONNOR MCDAVID 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.89 (1st among regular forwards, No. 1 NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 5.96 (3rd among regular forwards, No. 24 NHL)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 52.9
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 3.5
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 55.2
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 7.3
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 251 shots/12.0%
  • Boxcars: 82, 30-70-100 (Won Art Ross Trophy)
  • Hart Trophy
  • Lindsay Award
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

THOUGHTS

  • Once the McDavid contract is announced, it sounds like news may be slow for a time. Leon Draisaitl’s deal has some miles to go based on estimates and free-agent additions may not arrive until just before camp (it at all).
  • As I have mentioned a few times recently, the current roster construction represents a mammoth opportunity for Jesse Puljujarvi. It may also open up chances for Kailer Yamamoto in training camp. Seriously.
  • Expect Nuge trade rumors to heat up once the McDavid signing occurs. Something has to give, sooner or later.
  • If there is an offer sheet for Leon coming, the destinations are dwindling. Based on number of players signed, plus cap room, I’d estimate only Arizona, Nashville, New Jersey, Carolina, Buffalo and Montreal can afford it. From that group, I’ll guess Montreal is the main threat, with Carolina and New Jersey also possible.
  • Nail Yakupov signed with Colorado today. I hope he rips it up.
  • The celebration of life for Dave Semenko goes Thursday. Ryan Rishaug has details here.
  • I don’t think we see the balance photo this summer.

 

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102 Responses to "HURRY TOMORROW"

  1. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I do hope the Drai contract doesn’t stop them from signing leftover free agents into late, late July or August. I, like most, would love to see Jagr in Edmonton for a season. Still a top 6 forward. If not Jagr, then Jokinen.

  2. jtblack says:

    Weather by incompetent management, terrible drafting or the good luck of the ping pong balls I don’t care how we arrived at Connor McDavid I believe he was even worth the decade of Darkness. #GRATEFUL

  3. Richard S.S. says:

    Listen to Elliotte Freidman on Bob Stauffer’s Oilers Now show on Thursday. It should change minds about Leon.

  4. Philosophil says:

    From some accounts, Oilers whiffed on Justin Williams and Patrick Marleau. What baby boomer talent is left to sign ? My bet is trade as well (who else remains to be traded but Nuge?), but wouldn’t be surprised with Jerome Iginla instead.

    PS LT – every thread this past few weeks has left me an ear worm for the day – Cruel Summer, hell even the Edge of Night! What a drag it is getting old…

  5. MacT's Neglected Helmet says:

    Some Oilers fans are going to bitch about McDavid’s record-setting contract. I’m going choose to be thankful that we are so lucky to have an Oiler deserving of a record-setting contract.

    It would be me like me doing laundry and complaining, “argh! my wife has the biggest bras in the world! it’s so hard to do laundry!!”

  6. leadfarmer says:

    MacT’s Neglected Helmet:
    Some Oilers fans are going to bitch about McDavid’s record-setting contract. I’m going choose to be thankful that we are so lucky to have an Oiler deserving of a record-setting contract.

    It would be me like me doing laundry and complaining, “argh! my wife has the biggest bras in the world! it’s so hard to do laundry!!”

    I don’t think him having the biggest cap hit is the issue. It’s him having the biggest cap hit by far in the flat cap world that is the issue. 3 mil is a lot of money. Crosby signed his contract when salary cap was expected to keep rising, now not so much

  7. hags9k says:

    “I don’t think we see the balance photo this summer.”

    https://media.giphy.com/media/KAQg0sejGV5F6/giphy.gif

  8. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer,

    Only Gratitude here bro. I don’t care about the salary cap, past contracts or future contracts or Leon’s contract. I am damn grateful for Connor McDavid.

  9. theDjdj says:

    If the Draisaitl contract comes in anywhere north of 7m I’d be open to a trade. Or maybe a sign and trade while we extract value out of him before McDavid’s contract kicks in.

    Thing is Draisaitl is negotiating like he’s our star top line centre. He would be on any other team. However, the Oilers are privileged enough to have The Pistol Star at 1 and a decent young centre at 2.

    At $8m+ we’re paying a premium for a luxury. RNH could cover that bet for 30% less pay and a winger can be found for the difference.

    Draisaitl is at peak value now. Trade him for an elite piece we do need (Parayko) and keep RNH.

  10. teddyturnbuckle says:

    I hate to say it but it would be a wise decision to walk away from any offer sheet. 4 first round picks plus the ability to sign a good free agent is hard to turn down. Most of the teams that can afford Leon are not very good and the picks would be high. Leon for Thornton, Iginla and 4 first round picks? Thats Lindros trade territory.

  11. Philosophil says:

    PC is doing the right thing and out waiting LD and his OCD Agent. Most GM’s realize the precedent 8M+ will set and only the most desperate will cross the line with an offer sheet.

    McD, however, is worth every penny #GRATEFUL, or is it #GREATFUL 🙂

  12. classict says:

    theDjdj:
    If the Draisaitl contract comes in anywhere north of 7m I’d be open to a trade. Or maybe a sign and trade while we extract value out of him before McDavid’s contract kicks in.

    Thing is Draisaitl is negotiating like he’s our star top line centre. He would be on any other team. However, the Oilers are privileged enough to have The Pistol Star at 1 and a decent young centre at 2.

    At $8m+ we’re paying a premium for a luxury. RNH could cover that bet for 30% less pay and a winger can be found for the difference.

    Draisaitl is at peak value now. Trade him for an elite piece we do need (Parayko) and keep RNH.

    Really he’s not even the top center on 10-15 other teams, let alone this one. (Though that could very easily change as soon as next year).

  13. Ducey says:

    I’ll guess Montreal is the main threat, with Carolina and New Jersey also possible.

    As I said this morning (you never listen to me, LT 🙂 ) MTL is unlikely.

    They have Weber at $7.8 and Price at $10.5 next year. And they have already given away most of the back half of their 2018 draft picks. They could offer sheet the Oilers but if the Oilers don’t match, then they have three guys making 1/3 of their cap.

    And NJ and CAR are budget teams. NJ is likely going to have a few bonus babies on their roster, including Nico.

    My guess would be Vancouver. I could see them being talked into it by an agent and their owner would like it because it would sell tickets.

    Realistically it won’t be anyone. Its too much money for any team at this point (including the Oilers).

  14. Cassandra says:

    Ducey:

    Realistically it won’t be anyone. Its too much money for any team at this point (including the Oilers).

    Especially when you consider the cost of the draft picks you’ve given up. There is a reason RFA’s sign at a discount.

    Chiarelli can wait for the offer sheet. If it comes, he can match and say Draisatl is getting market value. When it doesn’t come Draisatl can choose how he wants to play it. There is more downside for the player here than their is for the Oilers.

    If Draisatl really wants more than 7 million on a long term deal, a two or three year bridge deal has very little down side. If he plays great you can sign him to a 9 or 10 million deal then. Unless you think that there is a universe where Draisatl is going to get more than that as an UFA? I don’t.

  15. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Ducey:
    I’ll guess Montreal is the main threat, with Carolina and New Jersey also possible.

    As I said this morning (you never listen to me, LT ) MTL is unlikely.

    They have Weber at $7.8 and Price at $10.5 next year. And they have already given away most of the back half of their 2018 draft picks. They could offer sheet the Oilers but if the Oilers don’t match, then they have three guys making 1/3 of their cap.

    And NJ and CAR are budget teams. NJ is likely going to have a few bonus babies on their roster, including Nico.

    My guess would be Vancouver. I could see them being talked into it by an agent and their owner would like it because it would sell tickets.

    Realistically it won’t be anyone. Its too much money for any team at this point (including the Oilers).

    If Drai signs a deal to get more money in Vancouver of all places then good riddance. Points towards not caring about winning, or giving 2 shits about Edmonton.

    I hope he caves a la Johnny Hockey last summer.

  16. Richard S.S. says:

    Connor McDavid deserves everything.
    Or as much as he can be given.

  17. pocession charge says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    I hate to say it but it would be a wise decision to walk away from any offer sheet. 4 first round picks plusthe ability to sign a good free agent is hard to turn down.Most of the teams that can afford Leon are not very good and the picks would be high.Leon for Thornton, Iginla and 4 first round picks?Thats Lindros trade territory.

    Hardly. Thornton signed with SJ and Iggy’s wheels have fallen off. There is no guarantee that the draft picks will work out, and if they do, when? Besides, Quebec received a star in return (Forsberg), plus two good players (Duchesne and Ricci) and more. Philly paid in full.

  18. theDjdj says:

    classict: Really he’s not even the top center on 10-15 other teams, let alone this one. (Though that could very easily change as soon as next year).

    I’d say about 2/3 of the teams would slate him in as top line but your point stands. Asking to be paid like an elite top line centre when he’s arguably not.

  19. leadfarmer says:

    LadiesloveSmid: If Drai signs a deal to get more money in Vancouver of all places then good riddance. Points towards not caring about winning, or giving 2 shits about Edmonton.

    I hope he caves a la Johnny Hockey last summer.

    Vancouver and Vegas are two teams that if they sent an offer sheet I would not match. 2-4 lotto picks (depending on contract) goes a long way to make Chia not worry about overpaying Draisatl. Sedins are 37 when season starts and they have little to get excited about behind them.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    I’ll guess Montreal is the main threat, with Carolina and New Jersey also possible.

    As I said this morning (you never listen to me, LT 🙂 ) MTL is unlikely.

    They have Weber at $7.8 and Price at $10.5 next year. And they have already given away most of the back half of their 2018 draft picks. They could offer sheet the Oilers but if the Oilers don’t match, then they have three guys making 1/3 of their cap.

    And NJ and CAR are budget teams. NJ is likely going to have a few bonus babies on their roster, including Nico.

    My guess would be Vancouver. I could see them being talked into it by an agent and their owner would like it because it would sell tickets.

    Realistically it won’t be anyone. Its too much money for any team at this point (including the Oilers).

    Well, I always read you unless I’m on the air of driving. 🙂

  21. Scungilli Slushy says:

    theDjdj: I’d say about 2/3 of the teams would slate him in as top line but your point stands. Asking to be paid like an elite top line centre when he’s arguably not.

    The thing is we don’t know because he hasn’t done it yet. The value he has is size and potential. He hasn’t had a season carrying play on his own line, he’s always been with an elite player or play driver. As a winger.

    No GM would see him right now as a top 6 centre. Maybe they think he might be, they know he is a top 10 scorer with elite line mates, last year. The thing is the size and skill, rare package and also why the Oilers love him. And us. He’d be worth more after a successful bridge deal if he’s not affordable then than he is now.

  22. Georges says:

    LT,

    The last two comments (DMW’s and yours) on the Eberle post from the morning thread are superb.

    The best back to back comments I’ve read on the site.

    I’m assuming DMW became Darkness…? And DSF left the site?

  23. Chachi says:

    Georges:
    LT,

    The last two comments (DMW’s and yours) on the Eberle post from the morning thread are superb.

    The best back to back comments I’ve read on the site.

    I’m assuming DMW became Darkness…? And DSF left the site?

    I think DSF has lost so many bets to Woodguy in the last year he is now Woodguy’s personal butler. There was the Hemsky/Brown bet that DSF won, but even when his horse won a race they ended up shooting it right after it crossed the finish line.

  24. Confused says:

    Calling all NHL lawyers……

    Can we sign Leon to two independent contracts this summer?

    Contact 1 — 1 year * 15 M

    As soon as it clears he is less than a year away from needing a contract

    Next day start and conclude Contract 2 — 7 years * 7M

    Leaves around 4M for. bonuses, etc……in year 1

  25. theDjdj says:

    Scungilli Slushy: The thing is we don’t know because he hasn’t done it yet. The value he has is size and potential. He hasn’t had a season carrying play on his own line, he’s always been with an elite player or play driver. As a winger.

    No GM would see him right now as a top 6 centre. Maybe they think he might be, they know he is a top 10 scorer with elite line mates, last year. The thing is the size and skill, rare package and also why the Oilers love him. And us. He’d be worth more after a successful bridge deal if he’s not affordable then than he is now.

    Would you like to see him bridged? I can’t see him demanding anymore in free agency than the supposed 9m the agent is bartering for now. We get 5 years for him to prove he can drive a line.

    If you can get OEL or Parayko for Draisaitl do you trade him?

  26. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I know the sample is tiny but can you imagine if Benning hits anywhere close to his 7.16 P/60 at 5v4, taking over Sekera’s spot on PP1/2? Sekera played 170 minutes at 5v4.

    Starting to worry if he scores 30some points, just how bad this cap crunch will get.

  27. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kovalchuk staying in the KHL.

    Maybe what we are seeing happen with contracts is a result of analytics on the teams. The league is getting younger. We see young defencemen getting lower contracts than forwards. We are seeing the most talented players, especially forwards getting bigger contracts at younger ages which actually matches their point production better.

    Analytics pointed out production levels per age a few years ago for forwards. The shift might be paying the peak forwards more , meaning the salaries for lesser players will be pushed down, and that’s fair. We should also see a move away from paying players with high reputations that are older a lot because that so often doesn’t work out, really unsurprisingly in a heavy contact sport. Those contracts are killers.

    Maybe teams are learning from mistakes and freely available info, which when it goes dark means it’s going in house.

    We’ve seen the teams move away from staged fighters and that was about being competitive not the league. We are seeing a move to players who are young and healthy. Next is older players (who have made their money) signing lower contracts. Lou is a dinosaur so he went for old school on Marleau, we’ll see how that works.

    I think goalie contracts will continue to be reasonable as well because for most their level of play is so in flux. Bergevin had little choice being in Montreal, but that contract for a goalie with increasing injury issues could be bad, although Priced is the best bet to earn it.

  28. theDjdj says:

    Confused:
    Calling all NHL lawyers……

    Can we sign Leon to two independent contracts this summer?

    Contact 1 — 1 year * 15 M

    As soon as it clears he is less than a year away from needing a contract

    Next day start and conclude Contract 2 — 7 years * 7M

    Leaves around 4M for. bonuses, etc……in year 1

    Definitely not a lawyer but all contracts must be registered with the League. The league then has the right to refuse the contract if they think it circumvents the maximum player salary or the salary cap. Signing max 1 year deals looks like the latter.

  29. JonyPro says:

    Plenty of people claim that Connor McDavid is mature beyond his current age, I beg to differ. Don’t get me wrong, I love the kid. He makes the Oilers watchable again, even though I have watched them for many, many years. But, when a young man demands a record breaking NHL contract after his 2nd year of pro hockey and think it is helping his team win is folly. Same with Draisatl, both are amazing players and deserve to be paid. But when I’m reading articles about NBA plays taking home discounts on their contracts in order to help their team win it gets me thinking. NBA players, whom I think have the biggest egos after soccer players in Europe, taking discounts when entering free agency is amazing and then hearing about a ‘mature’ and ‘humble’ kid like McDavid just grinds my gears. I love McDavid and Draisatl as players but if they strap this team to cap hell my thoughts of them as team players will plummet and I’ll be absolutely disgusted. I don’t believe in Lowetide’s thoughts of his $14 million by 8 years contract as fair or anything like that. I want my hometown team to win but now Chiarelli is tied down by contract talks and can’t even get 1 big name from Free Agency this year and seeing Toronto get Boyle and Marleau is just annoying…..please, these two young men see the light and help their team out.

  30. leadfarmer says:

    Georges:
    LT,

    The last two comments (DMW’s and yours) on the Eberle post from the morning thread are superb.

    The best back to back comments I’ve read on the site.

    I’m assuming DMW became Darkness…? And DSF left the site?

    If LT or DMW write a book I would be very happy to read it. They have a way with words that very few people have.

  31. Scungilli Slushy says:

    theDjdj: Would you like to see him bridged? I can’t see him demanding anymore in free agency than the supposed 9m the agent is bartering for now. We get 5 years for him to prove he can drive a line.

    If you can get OEL or Parayko for Draisaitl do you trade him?

    Bridged is a fair compromise and can give the team a long window of certainty and pay Leon fairly, but it cannot put him so close to UFA that he can walk. That is not in the teams interest.

    As for defencemen, I’m not a believer in offensive D that need shelter. Too expensive as points get paid and 5v5 is what wins In the long term. Parayko is not enough alone, and our Lowetide fav OEL doesn’t have enough term before UFA. Besides, the Oiler D corp is shaping up well, they would need a lower cost first line forward, preferably a centre. Preferably right shot to compliment McDavid.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Confused:
    Calling all NHL lawyers……

    Can we sign Leon to two independent contracts this summer?

    Contact 1 — 1 year * 15 M

    As soon as it clears he is less than a year away from needing a contract

    Next day start and conclude Contract 2 — 7 years * 7M

    Leaves around 4M for. bonuses, etc……in year 1

    If he signs a one year contract, he cannot sign an extension/another contract until January 1.

  33. Confused says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks for the reply

  34. Gret99zky says:

    JonyPro,

    Yeah. Hopefully McD signs for $12.5M and Drai calls his agent and says, “You are embarrassing me! Get me a contract for $7.5M and show yourself out.”

  35. Cassandra says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Parayko for Draisatl would be an excellent deal for the Oilers. Easily enough alone, especially if the reason you are making the deal is Draisatl’s demands. The problem is the Blues would likely not do it for the same reason.

    If the Oilers match an offer sheet it will be hard to trade Draisatl for more than the compensation picks for the same reason the offer sheet is so unlikely in the first place.

    If you are trading Draisatl at 9 to 10 million it is for someone like Galchenyuk.

  36. OilFire says:

    Georges:
    LT,

    The last two comments (DMW’s and yours) on the Eberle post from the morning thread are superb.

    The best back to back comments I’ve read on the site.

    I’m assuming DMW became Darkness…? And DSF left the site?

    Beautiful words, thanks for pointing me at them. DMW with a wonderful compliment to LT in there too.

    Yes, DMW went through those handles, and many others, but you never doubt who it is.

  37. Richard S.S. says:

    Leon was very good with McDavid last year and a good Center when not. He was great with McDavid in the playoffs and a very good Center when not. Small sample or the expected progression, which is it?

  38. treevojo says:

    JonyPro:
    Plenty of people claim that Connor McDavid is mature beyond his current age, I beg to differ. Don’t get me wrong, I love the kid. He makes the Oilers watchable again, even though I have watched them for many, many years. But, when a young man demands a record breaking NHL contract after his 2nd year of pro hockey and think it is helping his team win is folly. Same with Draisatl, both are amazing players and deserve to be paid. But when I’m reading articles about NBA plays taking home discounts on their contracts in order to help their team win it gets me thinking. NBA players, whom I think have the biggest egos after soccer players in Europe, taking discounts when entering free agency is amazing and then hearing about a ‘mature’ and ‘humble’ kid like McDavid just grinds my gears. I love McDavid and Draisatl as players but if they strap this team to cap hell my thoughts of them as team players will plummet and I’ll be absolutely disgusted. I don’t believe in Lowetide’s thoughts of his $14 million by 8 years contract as fair or anything like that. I want my hometown team to win but now Chiarelli is tied down by contract talks and can’t even get 1 big name from Free Agency this year and seeing Toronto get Boyle and Marleau is just annoying…..please, these two young men see the light and help their team out.

    You know what grinds my gears?

    Blaming young men for the work of world class agents.

    These guys pay a lot of money to smart men to do this work for them.

    These kids play the game to the best of their abilitlty and let their results decide what their agents deem reasonable for contracts.

    I don’t expect Mike liut or any other agent to lace em up nor do I expect Leon or Connor to spend much time manning the phones.

  39. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Leon was very good with McDavid last year and a good Center when not.He was great with McDavid in the playoffs and a very good Center when not.Small sample or the expected progression, which is it?

    Who knows? Which is exactly the problem.

  40. JonyPro says:

    treevojo,

    Do you think they are going the Bobby Orr route? Both Connor and Leon aren’t stupid, they can read all the articles out there. They maybe young but not ignorant, if they wanted something they can man up and tell their respective agents.

  41. Bad Seed says:

    Don’t think for a minute that a young kid 2 years into the league isn’t getting pressure from the nhlpa to be a good soldier and set a nice precedent. You can’t have a generational player not moving the needle.

  42. Jethro Tull says:

    treevojo: You know what grinds my gears?

    Blaming young men for the work of world class agents.

    These guys pay a lot of money to smart men to do this work for them.

    These kids play the game to the best of their abilitlty and let their results decide what their agents deem reasonable for contracts.

    I don’t expect Mike liut or any other agent to lace em up nor do I expect Leon or Connor to spend much time manning the phones.

    This. Not only that, Connor and Drai probably signed contracts with the agents giving them sole negotiating rights. This probably excludes Connor and Drai from the table altogether.

  43. treevojo says:

    JonyPro:
    treevojo,

    Do you think they are going the Bobby Orr route? Both Connor and Leon aren’t stupid, they can read all the articles out there. They maybe young but not ignorant, if they wanted something they can man up and tell their respective agents.

    Conversation probably goes something like this.

    Connor text: hey Leon I hear my agent is looking at 13.25 a year.

    Leon text: fuck thats a boatload of money. I hear mine is looking at 10.

    Connor: fuck that’s a lot of money buddy. Anyway I’m going to go practice stickhandling in the basement.

    Leon: cool just going to finish up some reps and probably chill to some house music. See ya in the fall.

    Connor: later

  44. Ice Sage says:

    It’s all going to work out.
    Oilers have been good to Leon.
    There is no better landing spot for him.
    The $$$$$$ will fall into place.

  45. Pescador says:

    Ice Sage:
    It’s all going to work out.
    Oilers have been good to Leon.
    There is no better landing spot for him.
    The $$$$$$ will fall into place.

    I appreciate this kind of optimism, I do.
    Unfortunately optimism doesn’t get you a very good supporting cast around these two contracts.
    Dr Optimismist meet Professor Pessimist.

  46. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    To those who have said don’t blame Leon or Connor I wholeheartedly agree. They pay their agents to get the best deal possible.

    If I’m Chia I actually would sit all four down in a room (players plus agents) and explain the cap parameters and ramifications for shorter deals and longer deals.

    Hey, so we have 21m to split. Any more than that and Nuge and Maroon have to go and we can only afford cheap replacements. You two are our core and leaders. C and A going forward. We want to pay you fairly and handsomely but win multiple Cups. What do you guys think if fair? 12.5 and 8.5? 13 and 8? 5 years at a lower cap hit and then we can bump you both into 15 and 12 territory so you still cash out in your prime? Lay all the cards out there.

    I think these guys want to win, too.

  47. treevojo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    To those who have said don’t blame Leon or Connor I wholeheartedly agree. They pay their agents to get the best deal possible.

    If I’m Chia I actually would sit all four down in a room (players plus agents) and explain the cap parameters and ramifications for shorter deals and longer deals.

    Hey, so we have 21m to split. Any more than that and Nuge and Maroon have to go and we can only afford cheap replacements. You two are our core and leaders. C and A going forward. We want to pay you fairly and handsomely but win multiple Cups. What do you guys think if fair? 12.5 and 8.5? 13 and 8? 5 years at a lower cap hit and then we can bump you both into 15 and 12 territory so you still cash out in your prime? Lay all the cards out there.

    I think these guys want to win, too.

    Sounds nice.

    I don’t think it will work that way.

    Especially now that it has all but officially been announced Connor will be signed tomorrow.

  48. Dominoiler says:

    leadfarmer: I don’t think him having the biggest cap hit is the issue.It’s him having the biggest cap hit by far in the flat cap world that is the issue.3 mil is a lot of money.Crosby signed his contract when salary cap was expected to keep rising, now not so much

    Exactly, this!.. Pittsburgh survived the Crosby Malkin contacts because the cap rose consistently, even then they’ve been hard pressed to balance their roster.. now with McD actually, and Leon attempting to, breaking the scale, it’s tough to see the teams way through this cap suffocating strangle hold.. in a flat cap era, an important caveat..

    Put me in the group that doesn’t think the oilers can go very far at all (next year at least) with only McD and Drai shipped out.. the oil were already struggling to be more than a one offensive outscoring line team, without drai it’s laughable.. :/

  49. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges,

    – great post LT!

    – George I was going to say something similar. There are some great exchanges here aren’t there

    – it’s kind of interesting the tone from that post is full of eager anticipation. RNH Ebs and Hall really were going to take us to the promise land. 5 years later and we are hope McD and Drai do same.

  50. VOR says:

    History of the cap

    2005 39
    2006 44 13%
    2007 50.3 14%
    2008 56.7 13%
    2009 56.8 0%
    2010 59.4 5%
    2011 64.3 8%
    2012 60 -7%
    2013 64.3 7%
    2014 69 7%
    2015 71.4 3%
    2016 73 2%
    2017 75 3%

  51. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jethro Tull: This. Not only that, Connor and Drai probably signed contracts with the agents giving them sole negotiating rights. This probably excludes Connor and Drai from the table altogether.

    I highly doubt that with Connor .

  52. russ99 says:

    Some rumbles about Jagr signing with the Oilers.

    Doubt it, but it would be fun if true.

  53. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo: Sounds nice.

    I don’t think it will work that way.

    Especially now that it has all but officially been announced Connor will be signed tomorrow.

    Of course it won’t! It never does

  54. Jethro Tull says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I highly doubt that with Connor .

    Connor can do many things brilliantly, but I highly doubt dickering a complex contract negotiation that will have a significant impact on the future of all NHL contracts is one of them.

    You don’t have a dog and bark yourself.

  55. Lowetide says:

    russ99:
    Some rumbles about Jagr signing with the Oilers.

    Doubt it, but it would be fun if true.

    I’d love to see it.

  56. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jethro Tull: Connor can do many things brilliantly, but I highly doubt dickering a complex contract negotiation that will have a significant impact on the future of all NHL contracts is one of them.

    You don’t have a dog and bark yourself.

    It was sole I wonder about. Connor is one of the few that at this point dictates to everyone. I’m not saying he’s involved directly, but why would he give up control to anyone? With Orr who got hosed himself to advise?

  57. Side says:

    JonyPro:
    Plenty of people claim that Connor McDavid is mature beyond his current age, I beg to differ. Don’t get me wrong, I love the kid. He makes the Oilers watchable again, even though I have watched them for many, many years. But, when a young man demands a record breaking NHL contract after his 2nd year of pro hockey and think it is helping his team win is folly. Same with Draisatl, both are amazing players and deserve to be paid. But when I’m reading articles about NBA plays taking home discounts on their contracts in order to help their team win it gets me thinking. NBA players, whom I think have the biggest egos after soccer players in Europe, taking discounts when entering free agency is amazing and then hearing about a ‘mature’ and ‘humble’ kid like McDavid just grinds my gears. I love McDavid and Draisatl as players but if they strap this team to cap hell my thoughts of them as team players will plummet and I’ll be absolutely disgusted. I don’t believe in Lowetide’s thoughts of his $14 million by 8 years contract as fair or anything like that. I want my hometown team to win but now Chiarelli is tied down by contract talks and can’t even get 1 big name from Free Agency this year and seeing Toronto get Boyle and Marleau is just annoying…..please, these two young men see the light and help their team out.

    Yeah those basketball players like Durant are only making a measly sum:

    “The 2017 NBA Finals MVP will be taking somewhere in the vicinity of a $9 million pay cut, given that he could have secured a max of $34 million per year. He will make $25.9 million this season, less than he made in 2016-17 ($26.5 million).”

    God he’s practically working for free.

    Why are people looking down at hockey players for not signing for less? This is going to be Connor’s first big contract which is potentially 13 million a year. That’s half of what Durant will get in a year, and Durant already has millions in the bank already.

    I find it incredibly hilarious when people expect or want NHL players to take heavy discounts when they’re making almost peanuts compared to athletes in other sports. Connor’s 13 mil is fine and he deserves it. He’s arguably the best player in the sport and should get paid as such.

    Your issue shouldn’t be with Connor or Draisaitl, it should be with the players with worse contracts that Pete signed like Lucic or Russel.

  58. Richard S.S. says:

    I extremely doubt the Oilers will find any one as good as or better the Leon Draisaitl. If you think they can, you’ve given up on the Oilers, because they think he’s part of the future. Most people don’t think any number draft picks can replace his talent and I agree. Next year is not a problem. The following year might be. The Canadian Dollar is getting better, slowly but getting better. Alberta Oil is crawling its way back to value. Both Canada and Alberta need that to continue. If it does, the Cap goes for sure. When the US TV deal expires, any new should be 2.5 times bigger – extra $10.0 Million per Team. When China sign a TV Deal, it could even be bigger.

  59. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: This. Not only that, Connor and Drai probably signed contracts with the agents giving them sole negotiating rights. This probably excludes Connor and Drai from the table altogether.

    They may have an arrangement with their agents that stipulates they stay out of the boardroom during negotiations, but that’s easily remedied by firing their agents if they don’t like how things are going. Of course that remedy would probably come at a price…

  60. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    So, I have a spam alert.

    After 990 consecutive days on the road learning my new profession of photography, this Canada Day I pulled a Forest Gump and stopped running across the world.

    I settled back in Tokyo in a little house on a pedestrian-only path lined by cherry blossom trees in a quiet neighbourhood in the southern part of the city. My rent is about a quarter of what I used to pay for my apartment near the Imperial Palace the last time I lived here back in 2011, but I might be four times happier. Only thing missing now is a lady in my life but I’m not worried about that as I’ve grown a lot in my time reinventing myself. That will hopefully come in due time but in the meantime I am a complete person on my own now.

    Why Tokyo? Photographically it inspires me. But at the same time no one looks at photography as an art form here. There is a new generation of photographers trying to change that perception and I wanted to be a part of that group. I want to be a leader in it. And I want to be a bilingual, biciltural bridge between the Americas and Japan through my photography. For a society where the nail that protrudes gets hammered back in, the challenge will be enormous. But I think it’s one that’s worth fighting for.

    The last two weeks I really took myself out of my comfort zone and learned to photograph the human form, especially nudes for fine art and portraiture. I went to Europe to learn from the legendary celebrity and Hollywood portrait photographer Greg Gorman. He really pushed me to try new things but to still bring them back to my own vision and style. You can see a few things I tried out here: http://www.instagram.com/ggnb

    I think I have the tools to keep moving forward now no matter what’s in front of me. While I was in Europe learning from Greg I got invited to gallery shows in New York City and Italy.

    Once again I will be relying heavily on Mr. Mitchell’s wonderful site to keep up on all things Oilers. Thank you, sir, for all that you do here.

    And for all the posters here. New faces and old ones, some who rarely or never visit any more, some who are hitting refresh at work too much. Those I’ve argued with or debated with and those I have agreed with. Thank you to each and every one of you for being here and for making this a special place. I appreciate you all.

    And now, I am going to rest for a bit before I get on to my next chapter.

  61. Lowetide says:

    NYC: Awesome update! Fantastic photos! Incredible journey!

  62. Halfwise says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Sugoku kirei!

    Use your gifts, and don’t be a monkey in anyone’s circus. Looks to me like you’re on your true path.

  63. Chachi says:

    Scungilli Slushy: It was sole I wonder about. Connor is one of the few that at this point dictates to everyone. I’m not saying he’s involved directly, but why would he give up control to anyone? With Orr who got hosed himself to advise?

    Coming out of your entry level deal if you are a star player your best bet is probably to negotiate your deal by yourself and save the commission you would pay to an agent. These guys seem to have a good sense of their value and there really isn’t much to negotiate beyond dollar amount signing bonus and NMC/NTC. It also might put the team’s GM on his back heel a bit. It is really easy to tell someone like Rich Winter that he has his head up his butt if you don’t like what he is asking for his client, but it is a lot tougher to tell the player that to his face.

  64. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Lowetide,

    Thank you, LT. Will be counting on this place for all things Oilers even more than usual once again.

  65. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Halfwise,

    Cheers. I’m a monkey through and through (born the year of) but yeah me and the Circus…we’re done! Domo arigato!

  66. A'bunadh says:

    Bad Seed:
    Don’t think for a minute that a young kid 2 years into the league isn’t getting pressure from the nhlpa to be a good soldier and set a nice precedent.You can’t have a generational player not moving the needle.

    This makes no sense to me. 90% of the NHLPA would be hurt by a player on their team making huge money as it leaves less for them. McDavid making $15m doesn’t change the cap, it tightens the purse strings for every other teammate.

  67. jtblack says:

    Chachi,

    CHACHI. You crawl out from a rock? This comment makes it sound like you have never negotiated more than you car insurance. There are about 1,000 moving parts on a deal like Connors; with multiple parties interested and huge ramifications League wide.

  68. VOR says:

    NYC-BACK-TO-TOKYO OIL,

    Those are beautiful pictures. You clearly have a great gift. I hope it brings you much happiness and peace.

  69. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    VOR:
    NYC-BACK-TO-TOKYO OIL,

    Those are beautiful pictures. You clearly have a great gift. I hope it brings you much happiness and peace.

    Cheers. My gift has been the people I’ve met along my journey, whether in finance, photography, here or anywhere else along the way.

    Meanwhile…

    jtblack:
    Chachi,

    CHACHI. You crawl out from a rock?This comment makes it sound like you have never negotiated more than you car insurance.There are about 1,000 moving parts on a deal like Connors; with multiple parties interested and huge ramifications League wide.

    LOL at this comment!

  70. Chachi says:

    jtblack:
    Chachi,

    CHACHI. You crawl out from a rock?This comment makes it sound like you have never negotiated more than you car insurance.There are about 1,000 moving parts on a deal like Connors; with multiple parties interested and huge ramifications League wide.

    This is going to be my submission to the “where are they now” people in charge of my 20 year law school reunion. Thanks!

  71. Chachi says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Dude, those photos are incredible. I hope many, many people have the pleasure of viewing them.

  72. VOR says:

    I know this is going to sound heretical at best. I mean this as a serious inquiry.

    -Given that in the last ten years in the NHL Connor’s season is only the 12th best point total
    -Third lowest point total to win the scoring title (lock out and 2014-2015 being the only lower and in the case of the lockout Martin St. Louis was on pace to have more points)
    -McDavid’s 1.22 ppg is 22nd or 23rd in the last ten years
    -You only have to go back one year to find a more dominant year. Pat Kane 2015-2016.

    How do we know Connor McDavid is 26.2% better than the next highest paid player in hockey?

    What is it you all see that tells you he is so amazing?

    I am genuinely struggling with this. He is a great player certainly but how do you justify the idea he is better than Sid the Kid at the same age, never mind better than Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr (my top three). I don’t see any way he ever joins their company, truthfully. Each and every time they touched the puck the building went electric with anticipation. It is the difference between a player who gets the puck and you believe something good will happen and a player who gets the puck and you know something great will happen.

    We really can’t be saying that he gets to be the highest paid player in the history of hockey because he is the best of a bad lot. You must all be seeing true genius where I am not. LT has gone as far as to say the lack of support for him caused by cap considerations doesn’t matter because he is so good any reasonably talented GM should be able to field a contending team every year with him in the lineup.

    Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr, Potvin, Lafleur, Kane, Crosby, Kopitar they all required other great players in order to work their magic but supposedly (maybe I am misunderstanding) McDavid doesn’t require a superb supporting cast to make the Oilers contenders. That would certainly make him worthy of being the highest paid player of all time. I am just having a hard time believing it is true.

    I am truly trying to understand the genius you see when I am simply seeing a very fast, very talented hockey player. A soon to be an outrageously highly paid very fast, very talented hockey player.

  73. Scungilli Slushy says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    So, I have a spam alert.

    After 990 consecutive days on the road learning my new profession of photography, this Canada Day I pulled a Forest Gump and stopped running across the world.

    I settled back in Tokyo in a little house on a pedestrian-only path lined by cherry blossom trees in a quiet neighbourhood in the southern part of the city. My rent is about a quarter of what I used to pay for my apartment near the Imperial Palace the last time I lived here back in 2011, but I might be four times happier. Only thing missing now is a lady in my life but I’m not worried about that as I’ve grown a lot in my time reinventing myself. That will hopefully come in due time but in the meantime I am a complete person on my own now.

    Why Tokyo? Photographically it inspires me. But at the same time no one looks at photography as an art form here. There is a new generation of photographers trying to change that perception and I wanted to be a part of that group. I want to be a leader in it. And I want to be a bilingual, biciltural bridge between the Americas and Japan through my photography. For a society where the nail that protrudes gets hammered back in, the challenge will be enormous. But I think it’s one that’s worth fighting for.

    The last two weeks I really took myself out of my comfort zone and learned to photograph the human form, especially nudes for fine art and portraiture. I went to Europe to learn from the legendary celebrity and Hollywood portrait photographer Greg Gorman. He really pushed me to try new things but to still bring them back to my own vision and style. You can see a few things I tried out here: http://www.instagram.com/ggnb

    I think I have the tools to keep moving forward now no matter what’s in front of me. While I was in Europe learning from Greg I got invited to gallery shows in New York City and Italy.

    Once again I will be relying heavily on Mr. Mitchell’s wonderful site to keep up on all things Oilers. Thank you, sir, for all that you do here.

    And for all the posters here. New faces and old ones, some who rarely or never visit any more, some who are hitting refresh at work too much. Those I’ve argued with or debated with and those I have agreed with. Thank you to each and every one of you for being here and for making this a special place. I appreciate you all.

    And now, I am going to rest for a bit before I get on to my next chapter.

    Glad to hear you are resting now, it is a key to new inspiration. When you walk may your path lead you to where you are supposed to be.

  74. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    I know this is going to sound heretical at best. I mean this as a serious inquiry.

    -Given that in the last ten years in the NHL Connor’s season is only the 12th best point total
    -Third lowest point total to win the scoring title (lock out and 2014-2015 being the only lower and in the case of the lockout Martin St. Louis was on pace to have more points)
    -McDavid’s 1.22 ppg is 22nd or 23rd in the last ten years
    -You only have to go back one year to find a more dominant year. Pat Kane 2015-2016.

    How do we know Connor McDavid is 26.2% better than the next highest paid player in hockey?

    What is it you all see that tells you he is so amazing?

    I am genuinely struggling with this. He is a great player certainly but how do you justify the idea he is better than Sid the Kid at the same age, never mind better than Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr (my top three). I don’t see any way he ever joins their company, truthfully. Each and every time they touched the puck the building went electric with anticipation. It is the difference between a player who gets the puck and you believe something good will happen and a player who gets the puck and you know something great will happen.

    We really can’t be saying that he gets to be the highest paid player in the history of hockey because he is the best of a bad lot. You must all be seeing true genius where I am not. LT has gone as far as to say the lack of support for him caused by cap considerations doesn’t matter because he is so good any reasonably talented GM should be able to field a contending team every year with him in the lineup.

    Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr, Potvin, Lafleur, Kane, Crosby, Kopitar they all required other great players in order to work their magic but supposedly (maybe I am misunderstanding) McDavid doesn’t require a superb supporting cast to make the Oilers contenders. That would certainly make him worthy of being the highest paid player of all time. I am just having a hard time believing it is true.

    I am truly trying to understand the genius you see when I am simply seeing a very fast, very talented hockey player. A soon to be an outrageously highly paid very fast, very talented hockey player.

    They each have different ways of being far above their peers. Each looks nothing like we have seen before.

    Connor was basically shut down in the playoffs when it counted, that isn’t an issue, once. To stay at the top he will have to grow his game and be able to beat any challenge they throw at him.

    Malkin can outscore Crosby in the playoffs and that’s ok, but it happens because Crosby carries the big load. Connor did too, the other lines didn’t get it done.

    We are at the beginning of the story, but all signs point to a unique player, only one playing comparable.

  75. Evilas says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Congrats!

    Amazing photos, to me the photos of the ladies are the most eye-catching of these photos; perhaps photographing the female form is your strong suit? I especially like the contrasts used in the donkey photo. And with the other 2 photos, I did not realize she was one and the same, the ability of models to diversify their look is fascinating to me.

    I have a few commonalities with a few degrees of separation from you, lol, I too am a monkey, a childhood friend is now a very successful wildlife photographer. He has a very successful personal training business for over 20 yrs now and has been able to partake in his photography passion because of it; two years ago he had a display at the Smithsonian. And my cousin ran an English school in Nagoya for 12 years, but he’s been back in Canada for about 10 yrs now (his wife is Japanese).

    I guess I live vicariously through others, which is the opposite of what you do. KUDOs and continued success on your amazing journey! Thanks for once again allowing us to “come along for the ride!”

  76. Lowetide says:

    VOR:

    What is it you all see that tells you he is so amazing?

    I’d start with speed and 100 points in his second NHL season. That’s pretty special. He’s also bloody fantastic at 5×5 scoring, which is the hardest thing to do often. His possession number against elite competition also indicates stunning ability. Other things, but those are the main bullet points.

  77. Alpine says:

    VOR:
    I know this is going to sound heretical at best. I mean this as a serious inquiry.

    -Given that in the last ten years in the NHL Connor’s season is only the 12th best point total
    -Third lowest point total to win the scoring title (lock out and 2014-2015 being the only lower and in the case of the lockout Martin St. Louis was on pace to have more points)
    -McDavid’s 1.22 ppg is 22nd or 23rd in the last ten years
    -You only have to go back one year to find a more dominant year. Pat Kane 2015-2016.

    How do we know Connor McDavid is 26.2% better than the next highest paid player in hockey?

    What is it you all see that tells you he is so amazing?

    I am genuinely struggling with this. He is a great player certainly but how do you justify the idea he is better than Sid the Kid at the same age, never mind better than Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr (my top three). I don’t see any way he ever joins their company, truthfully. Each and every time they touched the puck the building went electric with anticipation. It is the difference between a player who gets the puck and you believe something good will happen and a player who gets the puck and you know something great will happen.

    We really can’t be saying that he gets to be the highest paid player in the history of hockey because he is the best of a bad lot. You must all be seeing true genius where I am not. LT has gone as far as to say the lack of support for him caused by cap considerations doesn’t matter because he is so good any reasonably talented GM should be able to field a contending team every year with him in the lineup.

    Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr, Potvin, Lafleur, Kane, Crosby, Kopitar they all required other great players in order to work their magic but supposedly (maybe I am misunderstanding) McDavid doesn’t require a superb supporting cast to make the Oilers contenders. That would certainly make him worthy of being the highest paid player of all time. I am just having a hard time believing it is true.

    I am truly trying to understand the genius you see when I am simply seeing a very fast, very talented hockey player. A soon to be an outrageously highly paid very fast, very talented hockey player.

    Are you accounting at all for the fact he’s 20 years old? McDavid destroys Kane and Kopitar’s numbers at the same age. And those two came into the NHL at a time when scoring was higher throughout the league. Adjust McDavid’s first couple years against Crosby’s, and you’ll see he comes out as good if not better than Crosby.

    You say all those players of old brought people out of their seats every time, and you’re really saying McDavid doesn’t do that? That’s borderline incredulous. He’s at least twice as exciting as Crosby ever has been mainly due to his speed being much better than Sids. I really doubt if you’ve spent much time at all watching McDavid in his career judging from your post, and if you have, then it seems you’re just being a contrarian for the sake of it.

    For anyone else reading this, Crosby is UNDERPAID heavily. He took the same percentage of the cap coming off his ELC as McDavid would be taking now. Sid took 8.7 per year on a 13 year deal, mainly because the now prohibited term length makes it feasible for him long term, and because Sid himself is a superstitious weirdo and has an obsession with the number 87. Just because he’s the best player doesn’t mean he should be the market rate.

  78. VOR says:

    Scungilli slushy,

    Thank you for taking me seriously and responding.

    First of all, just a point of fact, Crosby outscores Malkin in the playoffs. They are both in the top twenty playoff scorers in points per game all time (Crosby twelve, Malkin twenty). No wonder Pittsburgh is a good playoff team.

    How, exactly does McDavid look like nothing we have seen before?

    What signs point to him being a unique player? One good year? Why aren’t Malkin and Ovechkin comparable? Why is only Crosby?

    I am looking for something specific, factual, detail rich. Something that can inform how I look at the player.

  79. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Chachi:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Dude, those photos are incredible. I hope many, many people have the pleasure of viewing them.

    Thanks very much. I’ve had great teachers and lots of inspiration along the way.

  80. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Glad to hear you are resting now, it is a key to new inspiration. When you walk may your path lead you to where you are supposed to be.

    Thank you. I always try to be present and believe that my path is indeed taking me to where I am supposed to be. Admittedly sometimes it is easier to do than at other times. Plenty of times I thought I was losing my way. But I kept going and believing.

  81. Professor Q says:

    VOR,

    It’s a decent question and worry, indeed. I think he is faster than Sid, more cerebral, but hasn’t developed his shot like Sid has nor does he have the core and leg strength. Sid is like a mix between Draisaitl and McDavid?

    He’s more agile and quick. Twitchy. And with the puck, too. We’ll have to see how he develops and adapts his game to face the challenges he’s seen thus far and will see in the future. All arrows point to his dedication and focus facilitating at least the pathway for doing so.

  82. VOR says:

    LT,

    I would freely stipulate to Connor McDavid being pretty special. He is trending to be one of the top 25 players of all time (though very small sample size alert). But how exactly does that qualify him to be paid 26.5% more than any other player in the history of the game?

    I have sort of been assuming you are thinking he is going to explode and go super nova. That is to say, that as good as he is now you expect him to be much, much better in the future. Am I misunderstanding? If I am right, can you tell me what leads you to believe this to be true?

    Would you agree that just staying at 100 points and winning the scoring title every two or three years isn’t enough to justify his salary?

    I am trying to surround the expectations that lead you to believe Connor is worth over 26% more than any other player in the game.

    Alpine, it is a shame you ruined an otherwise fine response with an unprovoked ad hominem attack.

  83. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Evilas,

    Thanks for the thoughtful comments. I’m not sure where my new direction will take me eventually but in those people photos I conceived of the entire idea from setting to wardrobe to quality of light.

    I guess my time to rest will also be time to reflect and think.

  84. Side says:

    VOR:
    I know this is going to sound heretical at best. I mean this as a serious inquiry.

    -Given that in the last ten years in the NHL Connor’s season is only the 12th best point total
    -Third lowest point total to win the scoring title (lock out and 2014-2015 being the only lower and in the case of the lockout Martin St. Louis was on pace to have more points)
    -McDavid’s 1.22 ppg is 22nd or 23rd in the last ten years
    -You only have to go back one year to find a more dominant year. Pat Kane 2015-2016.

    How do we know Connor McDavid is 26.2% better than the next highest paid player in hockey?

    What is it you all see that tells you he is so amazing?

    I am genuinely struggling with this. He is a great player certainly but how do you justify the idea he is better than Sid the Kid at the same age, never mind better than Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr (my top three). I don’t see any way he ever joins their company, truthfully. Each and every time they touched the puck the building went electric with anticipation. It is the difference between a player who gets the puck and you believe something good will happen and a player who gets the puck and you know something great will happen.

    We really can’t be saying that he gets to be the highest paid player in the history of hockey because he is the best of a bad lot. You must all be seeing true genius where I am not. LT has gone as far as to say the lack of support for him caused by cap considerations doesn’t matter because he is so good any reasonably talented GM should be able to field a contending team every year with him in the lineup.

    Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr, Potvin, Lafleur, Kane, Crosby, Kopitar they all required other great players in order to work their magic but supposedly (maybe I am misunderstanding) McDavid doesn’t require a superb supporting cast to make the Oilers contenders. That would certainly make him worthy of being the highest paid player of all time. I am just having a hard time believing it is true.

    I am truly trying to understand the genius you see when I am simply seeing a very fast, very talented hockey player. A soon to be an outrageously highly paid very fast, very talented hockey player.

    In one breath you say Crosby, Kane, Kopitar are amazing and in the next say Connor is the best out of a “bad lot”, which includes the players you just mentioned, does it not?

    Crosby, Kane and Kopitar gave their best and Connor pulled way ahead this year in terms of production. Like you said, it wasn’t that long ago that Kane put up a dominant performance, and it doesn’t impress you that Connor outperformed him quite a bit at the age of 20 this year?

    Every time Connor touches the puck the building is electric and waiting with bated breath for a spectacular play or a goal from Connor. Not sure why you think otherwise.

  85. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    LT,

    I would freely stipulate to Connor McDavid being pretty special. He is trending to be one of the top 25 players of all time (though very small sample size alert). But how exactly does that qualify him to be paid 26.5% more than any other player in the history of the game?

    I have sort of been assuming you are thinking he is going to explode and go super nova. That is to say, that as good as he is now you expect him to be much, much better in the future. Am I misunderstanding? If I am right, can you tell me what leads you to believe this to be true?

    Would you agree that just staying at 100 points and winning the scoring title every two or three years isn’t enough to justify his salary?

    I am trying to surround the expectations that lead you to believe Connor is worth over 26% more than any other player in the game.

    Alpine, it is a shame you ruined an otherwise fine response with an unprovoked ad hominem attack.

    As I understand it, the Oilers and McDavid were originally going to pursue a five-year deal. For me, the added pricetag comes from the extra years. I’m not sure eight years is the correct course, to be honest McDavid signed for five at a lower number probably makes winning Stanley easier.

    for me, the Oilers are showing a willingness to pay in full for the opportunity to control this player’s rights for the first 11 years of his career.

    As for how I feel about McDavid, to me that’s not really material. I’m more interested in figuring out what the Oilers are thinking than defining why I like a particular player. That’s fairly obvious, I think you would agree.

  86. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Lowetide: As I understand it, the Oilers and McDavid were originally going to pursue a five-year deal. For me, the added pricetag comes from the extra years. I’m not sure eight years is the correct course, to be honest McDavid signed for five at a lower number probably makes winning Stanley easier.

    for me, the Oilers are showing a willingness to pay in full for the opportunity to control this player’s rights for the first 11 years of his career.

    As for how I feel about McDavid, to me that’s not really material. I’m more interested in figuring out what the Oilers are thinking than defining why I like a particular player. That’s fairly obvious, I think you would agree.

    That’s very interesting. Agree that 5 years makes contending easier. And to me 5 years of contending makes McDavid more likely to extend a deal again than 8 years where the first four or five are spent struggling to surround him with talent due to the cap and selling off more assets (Nuge) for pennies on the dollar to clear cap room.

    It’s a choice I guess but one I would not make if I were Chia. 5 years and surround him with the best talent. Maybe he hadn’t spoken with the Drai camp in detail yet when they went that route because it inflates all.numbers.

  87. Dominoiler says:

    I’ve been staunch detractor of the massive aav contract that McD is poised to sign, for pretty much the reasons VOR laid out.. but, finally did my own leg work, checked out single season earnings, which don’t take into account aav circumvention of the cap or pre lockout contracts for many years of back diving circumvention.. blah blah blah..

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2015/11/24/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2015-16/

    13M is comparable to single season earnings of the top players in the league THIS Season.. this past season.. let that sink in.. so he should be making a comparable wage next season no?.. his hardware hat-trick says so..

    So, here we are, with no back diving circumvention (fuck you nhl for letting everyone else get away w it), McD is going to get paid top dollar for the next season, with the very real possibility that in future years he’ll be earning less than some future comparables.. sure, Crosby’s circumventing contact is 8.7 aav, but he’s earning 12.5 or so this last season.. Kane and 50 something points from the toews are earning north of 13M.. is McD not yet this calibre?.. the answer being, he is already that calibre, or better, and is only 20.. so thank the gords, pay the man and buckle up..

  88. Greenberg says:

    OK VOR, and I am not being sarcastic, but I am the GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs and I will take McDavid off your hands for two first-round draft choices. Now you tell me and our fellow bloggers why that is a really good deal or a really bad deal. If you don’t understand the money being offered, do you understand his worth?

  89. fuzzy muppet says:

    The issue isn’t paying Conner McDavid. The issue is overpaying the Kris Russells.

  90. anonymous says:

    Dominoiler:
    I’ve been staunch detractor of the massive aav contract that McD is poised to sign, for pretty much the reasons VOR laid out.. but, finally did my own leg work, checked out single season earnings, which don’t take into account aav circumvention of the cap or pre lockout contracts for many years of back diving circumvention.. blah blah blah..

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2015/11/24/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2015-16/

    13M is comparable to single season earnings of the top players in the league THIS Season.. this past season.. let that sink in.. so he should be making a comparable wage next season no?.. his hardware hat-trick says so..

    So, here we are, with no back diving circumvention (fuck you nhl for letting everyone else get away w it), McD is going to get paid top dollar for the next season, with the very real possibility that in future years he’ll be earning less than some future comparables.. sure, Crosby’s circumventing contact is 8.7 aav, but he’s earning 12.5 or so this last season.. Kane and 50 something points from the toews are earning north of 13M.. is McD not yet this calibre?.. the answer being, he is already that calibre, or better, and is only 20.. so thank the gords, pay the man and buckle up..

    You’re missing the point. If Crosby, Kane and Toews Are making over 13 this year then other years they are making much less. Mcdavid won’t be. Salary cap matters. Mcdavid will be making much more than all three. Much, much more.

  91. The Trade Guy says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Evilas,

    Thanks for the thoughtful comments. I’m not sure where my new direction will take me eventually but in those people photos I conceived of the entire idea from setting to wardrobe to quality of light.

    I guess my time to rest will also be time to reflect and think.

    Have you ever shot the prairies? I’d like to see your style in a back drop like Cypress Hills and your take on photographing Prairie Folk and First Nations people. Prairie Grain bin photos are pretty cliche but I think you’d find some refreshing takes.

  92. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – NYC et plus: Thanks for sharing this. One day on a family trip to Japan, I would love to meet you with my family: that’s what is great about this place: LT’s “family” of cast of caracters we interact with…

    – All the best, and keep posting my friend! Wonderful shots as well

  93. theres oil in virginia says:

    VOR,

    My only quibbles with your analysis/question are:

    1) Since the lockout (2004-05), two Art Ross winners scored 120+ pts (the first two), three more scored 110+ (the next three), and none since then have topped 110, with one even scoring less than 90. The decrease in scoring has little to nothing to do with a decrease in talent (“best of a bad lot”). The NHL is badly broken.

    2) McDavid is 20. Since 1947, only Gretzky (20) and Crosby (19) have won it at such a young age. McDavid might have won it last year, but for injury. What he has done in the NHL, so far, is nothing short of incredible, both visibly and statistically.

    3) You aren’t taking into account the devaluation of the monetary unit, or the increase in the NHL salary cap when comparing McDavid’s contract to others signed in the past. (Also, the escrow might factor in too, but I’ve not taken the time to figure out exactly what it is. Sounds like a scam for the owners to me. I’d like to see how much these guys actually get paid (pre-tax) vs their on-the-books salary.)

    In general, I agree with you that he’s a very fast, very talented player. What else is there to value?

    Just look at the top 2 goals from this video as a reminder:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n29eQ9MRnc4

    The reason that there is a difference between the past players who you “know something good was going to happen” and the current “you hope something good is going to happen” is not diminished skill of the player, it’s the diminishing NHL game. Gretzky would struggle to dominate in today’s game. It’s faster, it’s heavier, the goalies are Sta-Puft marshmallow men. He wasn’t nearly strong enough to do what he did in today’s game. Also, as someone recently pointed out, the secondary players today are extremely better than in the past, as the competition for jobs is incredibly fierce.

    I hope he signs for less, but it has nothing to do with my view of the player.

  94. Surly says:

    Desharnais to NYR. His OT winner against SJ will forever be burned in the memory (Oh…and that backhand saucer pass from Draisaitl to set it all up. THANK$ Leon!

    Can’t wait for this presser. Like most I’ll accept the $s for the talent we all get to enjoy and the fact he is committing UFA years to Edmonton. We cannot and should not forget the many years we got left at the alter trying to convince players to come here.

    The tin-foil hat side of me wants to believe the $13.25 floated out there to help with the sticker shock and we’ll all be pleased when it comes in lower. However…the young man and his trophies deserve every penny. Take $9.7 and while you might be popular here…I’m sure you would get the stink-eye/crook-eye/evil-eye at most player functions going forward.

  95. VOR says:

    Greenberg, Side,

    I said Connor is tracking to be in the top 25 players of all time. He is easily the best young player in the game. But my comment about the best of a bad lot means just that. The rest of the under 25s underwhelm.

    The Oilers aren’t paying Connor for what he has done but what he will do. That is what he will do against his age cohort, a bad lot.

    There are four older active players in my top 25 all time. They are Jaromir Jagr, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Alex Ovechkin. Would I have traded any of them at twenty for two first round draft choices. Not a chance. But I lived through seeing the greatest player of all time traded for Jimmy Carson, Martin Gelinas, and $15,000,000 dollars.

    The team he left behind went on to win a Stanley Cup. If they also hadn’t been sold off how good might that team have been? How much did they have to do with Gretzky’s success?

    The salary McDavid is signing today if the rumours are right make it very unlikely he will ever be surrounded by a team as good as the Boys on the Bus.

    So I will repeat my first question in simpler form. Why are you all so sure hMcDavid is capable of being a one man band? What is it that I am missing?

    I love Connor McDavid. But I love the StanleyCup more. To me the contract he is purported to be signing today moves us further from winning a Stanley Cup rather than closer to it. So again, what am I missing?

  96. Side says:

    VOR:

    So I will repeat my first question in simpler form. Why are you all so sure hMcDavid is capable of being a one man band? What is it that I am missing?

    I love Connor McDavid. But I love the StanleyCup more. To me the contract he is purported to be signing today moves us further from winning a Stanley Cup rather than closer to it. So again, what am I missing?

    When Crosby signed his $8.7 million it was 17 of the cap, Connor’s contract would be 17.something of the cap.

    Toews and Kane are both eating, what, $20 million of the cap? And that’s when they signed years ago.

    Both the Penguins and Blackhawks won cups with those salaries eating a large % of the cap which you say makes it harder to win a cup.

    I would argue having the best players on the roster is what wins you a cup, not your cap savings. The more troubling thing, imo, isn’t Connor getting $13 million, it’s players like Russell which Pete is giving contracts like 4×4 million to.

    If you can’t see that Connor McDavid, already, is arguably the best player on the planet just by watching him and seeing the numbers he puts up?

    Well, not sure what to tell you. You don’t know what you don’t know I suppose.

  97. Professor Q says:

    Side,

    15.34% of the Cap.

    And Chicago hasn’t won woth those new deals.

  98. theres oil in virginia says:

    VOR: So I will repeat my first question in simpler form. Why are you all so sure hMcDavid is capable of being a one man band? What is it that I am missing?
    I love Connor McDavid. But I love the StanleyCup more. To me the contract he is purported to be signing today moves us further from winning a Stanley Cup rather than closer to it. So again, what am I missing?

    Stated that way, I agree with you, unless the cap rises in a substantial way.

  99. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    The Trade Guy: Have you ever shot the prairies? I’d like to see your style in a back drop like Cypress Hills and your take on photographing Prairie Folk and First Nations people. Prairie Grain bin photos are pretty cliche but I think you’d find some refreshing takes.

    Thanks! Shot in Montana and Nebraska but not Alberta/Saskatchewan. Need to get back there for sure!

  100. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – NYC et plus: Thanks for sharing this.One day on a family trip to Japan, I would love to meet you with my family: that’s what is great about this place: LT’s “family” of cast of caracters we interact with…

    – All the best, and keep posting my friend!Wonderful shots as well

    Cheers
    Definitely give me a holler if out this way.

  101. BREAKING: Oilers Sign Connor McDavid • The Oilers Rig says:

    […] UFA years here and were able to get McDavid on the max term. As Lowetide pointed out last night here, this contract is comparable to Sidney Crosby’s deal and is in line with paying the best in […]

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