A SATISFIED MIND

As the trade deadline approached in 2011, Peter Chiarelli was on the lookout for veteran help. He wanted a two-way forward with enough utility to play special teams, win faceoffs and chip in a little offensively. Boston also needed a power-play quarterback and the back of the defensive depth chart was leaking. Further, the Bruins needed someone to ignite the offense and get the bottom 6F’s headed in a good direction.

  • On February 15, two weeks before the deadline, he dealt his 2011 second-round pick to the Ottawa Senators for C-L Chris Kelly. Kelly was 30 at that time and had been playing well in Ottawa. The pick ended up being Shane Prince.
  • On February 18, Chiarelli traded PF Blake Wheeler and defender Mark Stuart to the Atlanta Thrashers for F Rich Peverley and D Boris Valabik. It was a stunning trade, Wheeler was a productive player whose only crime was a subpar offensive season.
  • On February 18, Boston dealt Joe Colborne, their 2011 first-round pick (Rickard Rakell) and a conditional 2012 pick (second round, Mike Winther) to the Toronto Maple Leafs for D Tomas Kaberle.
  • On February 26, Boston signed D Shane Hnidy. He had been recovering from rotator cuff surgery, one of the reasons for such a late signing.
  • On February 28, the club dealt the rights to Mikko Lehtonen and D Jeff Penner to the Minnesota Wild for G Anton Khudobin.

Boston won the Stanley. Peter Chiarelli gave up an enormous amount of talent in acquiring very specific things. The first-round pick and two seconds could not help him win the 2011 Stanley, Wheeler had been in a long slump, Joe Colborne wasn’t enough. Chiarelli dropped gigantic amounts of gold, Boston won the Stanley.

WHAT TO DO WITH THE MONEY

The Edmonton Oilers have money and will have enough to add a substantial piece in the days after signing Leon Draisaitl. Chiarelli is in good shape for an offer sheet for Leon and could come out of that negotiation with $5 million+ to spend on a player(s) before opening night.

  • I would like to see an additional RHD (Cody Franson), a C-L who can slide in to replace Benoit Pouliot and offer insurance against Ryan Strome struggling. If that player can kill penalties, it will be encouraging.
  • If we apply the lessons learned above from the 2011 deadline, the roster is going to get a haircut at the deadline. Players moving out might be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Anton Slepyshev and Mark Fayne, depending on who performs well.
  • I think the Oilers will hold on to Jesse Puljujarvi and the 2018 first-round pick but you never know. Beyond that, if PC thinks he can win the Cup, expect major moves. I can’t see any other reason why Edmonton would hold back their water today and wait for another time.
  • The only way to avoid it? I would think Puljujarvi, Slepyshev and Caggiula emerging as 15-goal options would be enough. If you assume the top line (as above) is likely to score 82 goals (the trio delivered 86 last year), then the 2 and 3 lines would need to produce 96 goals (92 a year ago) to approach last year’s total.
  • Can Lucic-Nuge-Slepyshev score 50? Can Caggiula-Strome-Puljujarvi? I think we’ll see a trade at the deadline if Edmonton continues to ignore the lack of proven offense on the wings.
  • Don’t sleep on Kailer Yamamoto. I think there’s a chance he makes this team, at least for the first nine games. If I’m right about his offense being superior to Jesse Puljujarvi’s, then a look in pre-season may allow Yamamoto the chance to showcase his skills. I am not arguing in favor (or against) but do believe it’s a real possibility.

BILLY MOORES CUP

You can’t tell much from a highlight reel, but the Oilers most recent draft was impressive in Jasper last night in the Billy Moores Cup. Stuart Skinner drew good reviews, Kirill Maksimov showed good hands in scoring a hat-trick, and both Kailer Yamamoto and Ostap Safin scored twice. Encouraging results for an organization that is in dire need of scoring wingers.

The arbitration process this summer is a little off. Leon Draisaitl’s contract negotiations could stretch out to August and beyond, Joey Laleggia filed and Dillon Simpson did not file. Bogdan Yakimov is not a roster player, although Edmonton retains his rights. I have both minor leaguers as early callup options for 2017-18, still a little nonplussed about the Laleggia filing.

WHAT ABOUT NEXT YEAR’S FREE AGENTS?

A lot of talk about cap hell coming next year for Peter Chiarelli but I don’t see it that way. This season will be a lot about moving parts and next summer probably brings some goodbyes. Let’s have a look at the projected free agents.

  • Patrick Maroon, UFA. I think it’ll be a quick negotiation either way. If Maroon scores 27 again, he will have earned a handsome raise. Suspect Edmonton will make an offer well below market value and Maroon will sign elsewhere. This is going to be a theme among McDavid wingers for the next decade.
  • Mark Letestu, UFA. He was the No. 2 playoff scorer this spring and brings lots of utility. He is also 32, so PC will need to be aware of erosion. Suspect Letestu gets a two-year deal.
  • Mark Fayne, UFA. He will not receive an offer.
  • Matt Benning, RFA. Too soon to know, but he may emerge as the most valuable signing next summer. Could $4 million times five get it done? If he repeats his rookie season, getting a long-term deal in place will be a big priority. Has a chance to become the new Dan Boyle in Todd McLellan’s scheme.
  • Darnell Nurse, RFA. A lock to sign long term, the question here is cap. I’ve heard intelligent people suggest $2.5 million times whatever, but doubt that gets it done. This may end up being the most interesting negotiation of the year.
  • Ryan Strome, RFA. If he delivers a strong season, Strome gets signed long-term next summer. The cap hit will probably be mid-level ($4 million?) but he has a chance to be part of the cluster if things break right.
  • Anton Slepyshev, RFA. Anything could happen here, from a trade to long-term deal. Slepyshev is in a good spot but will need to deliver quickly, as the organization will be more patient with Jesse Puljujarvi.
  • Drake Caggiula, RFA. A Chiarelli signing, I expect the second contract gets signed quickly and without fanfare. He plays a physical style and may cash more in year two (had tons of chances). Outside chance he emerges as 97’s scoring winger, hopefully they sign him before that happens.
  • Laurent Brossoit, RFA. His current season will tell us a lot and the range of possibilities is large. He could get a multi-year deal or lose the backup job, or could get thrust into a starting role due to injury. Could also lose ground due to the emergence of another goalie in the system.
  • Iiro Pakarinen, RFA. A fringe winger, tough to say how things roll out. Pitlick’s exit gets him in a better spot to make the team and he does have some scoring ability. If he plays well in a support role, expect the Oilers to bring him back again.

THOUGHTS ON MCDAVID

Yesterday’s signing means the Edmonton Oilers will be Stanley Cup contenders from now through the middle of the 2020’s, possibly beyond. Important to make good personnel decisions and be strong in procurement, but 97’s presence gives the Oilers a fantastic edge. Yesterday’s news was a massive step for an organization trying to go from perennial loser to Stanley Cup champion. No negotiation this century could have had the same impact.

Speeds over at The Hockey Symposium has a post up that mentions the McDavid contract but focuses on the anticipated deal for Leon Draisaitl. Well worth the read (the first of three by speeds).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning with plenty of Oilers chatter. We get underway at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. McDavid contract, what happens if Yamamoto shoots the moon in training camp?
  • Kirk Luedeke, Red Line Report. Scouting reports on Brian Ferlin (former Bruins prospect) as well as recent draft picks Skyler Brind’Amour and Phillip Kemp.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. CFL Week Three, McDavid deal and what it means to the Oilers, plus the impact on men like Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes from now!

 

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145 Responses to "A SATISFIED MIND"

  1. TO10801 says:

    That Sekera injury really sets up a tricky situation for PC. You really don’t need another Dman signed beyond this year, as neither Nurse or Benning deserve to be in the press box. I wonder if he will look to add someone like Garrison or Sbisa with retained salary to provide some extra cover until Sekera gets back.

  2. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Doesn’t Jussi Jokinen make some sense to sign as a free agent. I think he would help Puljujarvi especially the language barrier . Also he is good on face offs. Obviously price is the question

  3. speeds says:

    TO10801,

    Brian Campbell hasn’t signed yet, AFAIK. He had a one year deal last year, maybe the Oilers look at him?

  4. Jaxon says:

    I’d bet that Chiarelli has multiple standing offers to a bunch of players willing to do a one-year deal. With the cap crunch coming for the 2018-2019 season, that’s almost all he can do. So there are a bunch of players/agents out there who know Chiarelli’s offer and are waiting to see if they’ll get a better multi-year deal from another team. If they don’t as they approach training camp, they’ll swing back to Chiarelli. Most likely, these are the veterans with a higher cap ask, but more risk involved with their age. Chiarelli may also have offers on some fringe reclamation projects for cheap multi-year deals and is just waiting on them to circle back to his offer.

    1-year deals for veteran candidates:
    Jaromir Jagr (LH-RW), Matt Cullen (C/LW), Brian Gionta (RHW), Mike Ribeiro (LHC), PA Parenteau (RW)
    RHD – Dennis Wideman, Nate Prosser, Tom Gilbert
    Older Alberta-Borns who may find coming home for one year an attractive option:
    Shane Doan (RHW), Jarome Iginla (RW), Scottie Upshall (LW), Rene Bourque (LW).

    Fringe Players, reclamation projects, AHL, & WHL Players who may be cheap enough and desperate enough to sign low cap hit, multiyear deals and have enough upside and youth that a gamble may work out:
    RHD – Darren Dietz (recently KHL bound), Nick Ebert (AHL), Aaron Irving (WHL Oil King), Michael Paliotta (AHL), Clayton Kirichenko (WHL).
    Forwards:
    Alex Chiasson (RW), Jimmy Hayes (RW), Brandon Pirri (LHCW), Dwight King (LHW), Ryan White (RHC).

    I don’t think he will be in the market on any UFAs who will likely get a 2 or more year deal at a $2M or more price tag:
    RHD – Cody Franson, Roman Polak, Zbynek Michalek.
    Thomas Vanek (W), Mike Fisher (C), Daniel Winnik (C), Drew Stafford (W).

    Anything that is 2 or more years and over $2M just takes away Chiarelli’s ability to hold onto and re-sign Benning, Nurse, Strome, Slepyshev and Caggiula. It would deinfitely necessitate trading Nuge if he signs a bigger contract to a multi-year deal.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kind of tough to project cap hits on these impending free agents with an entire season to play first.

    I can’t imagine Maroon being back – even if he regresses to something like 20-22 goals, he’ll likely command at least $4M/season if not higher – unless Nuge is traded for lesser player/picks/prospects, there won’t be any money for Patty – the revolving door of wingers has already started.

    I love Matty Bennign but, at this point, I’m not going to project $4M with term – he’s not that player yet – hopefully he will be in 8 months as we are relying on him to cover 2RD to start the season.

  6. Scungilli Slushy says:

    speeds:
    TO10801,

    Brian Campbell hasn’t signed yet, AFAIK.He had a one year deal last year, maybe the Oilers look at him?

    I can imagine their interest, but from what I have read Campbell’s top priority is the comfort of his family, going to the Hawks was about that. I have read he’ll retire if not back with them. Feelings can change of course, and Connor.

  7. speeds says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    It’s hard to know exactly what Maroon projects to.

    Both Maroon and Eaves had notably bigger years last year than anything in their NHL careers, Eaves with 32 goals to Maroon’s 27. Eaves just signed for 3 years, 3.15AAV, and seems like a really strong comparable?

  8. godot10 says:

    None of those comparables Speeds uses are 8-year comparables…looking at the TOTAL compensation those players are likely to receive over 8 years.

    Draisaitl would clearly accept less on a comparable deal of five or six years. But then the Oilers lose cost control in the latter half of McDavid’s deal, when they would have to re-sign Draisaitl.

    Centres like Draisaitl, as I argued yesterday, receive at the time of signing typically 11-11.5% of the cap for the eight years after their ELC. That puts Draisaitl in the mid-$8 million something over eight years.
    That is the market based on the last decade for eight contract years coming out of an ELC.

    That, and McDavid has reset the market undeniably higher, and Tavares, Seguin, Eichel, and Matthews will soon follow.

    One cannot tell Draisaitl that McDavid’s contract doesn’t exist.

  9. Shau-co says:

    I could see a player like Nurse being traded. Similar to Blake Wheeler. Young, lots of potential but still unproven and will hold a lot of value on the trade market.

    I would love to see Edmonton add Duchene. If they could get both Duchene and Barrie, maybe we see the balance picture this year.

  10. TO10801 says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    Doesn’t Jussi Jokinen make some sense to sign as a free agent. I think he would helpPuljujarvi especially the language barrier . Also he is good on face offs. Obviouslyprice is the question

    I think Jokinen would be a perfect fit. Then you would have 5C’s in the top 6 and could run something like:
    Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl
    Lucic-Nuge-Puljujarvi
    Caggiula-Jokinen-Strome
    Sleppy-Letestu-Kassian
    Khaira-Pak

    I would like to think that 3rd line could do some damage against soft competition.

  11. Jaxon says:

    Crunching the numbers above and with Nugent-Hopkins, Benning, Nurse, Strome, Caggiula, Slepyshev still on the roster at the numbers hinted at or mentioned above. With Maroon, Letestu and Fayne gone. Drasaitl getting $8.5M per. I have (bonuses included) the Oilers at $4.844M over a $77M cap.

    At least two of Strome, Nurse, or Benning will have to go with only prospects or picks coming back. Or Nugent-Hopkins and one of Strome, Nurse or Benning has to go with a player coming back who makes less than $3 or $4M (think Gudbranson, Gudas, Gallagher, or Jenner). The rest of the players either are not moveable (NMCS: Lucic, Sekera, Russell, Talbot), or won’t save enough to make a difference. Some combo of Kassian’s 1.95M contract might be able to help somewhere, though.

    That also fills your roster with a lot of inexperience.

    In that scenario, I have Benson, Khaira, Gambardella on LW with Lucic, McDavid, Draisaitl, Strome and Caggiula down the middle, Puljujarvi, Slepyshev, Kassian and Pakarinen on RW, Malone as 13th FWD.

    On D, I have Klefbom-Larsson, Sekera-Gudas, Russell-Benning, Paigin-Gryba

    G – Talbot-Brossoit (or Ellis)

    This lineup puts Edmonton right at the cap with bonuses included with $10,000 to spare.

    The D pairings would be pretty solid with Gudas in there. LW looks awful, C is okay with Strome as 3C. RW looks awful, too. If Nugent-Hopkins went for something like Gallagher or Jenner, then the hole shifts from wings to D.

    That Lucic contract is going to stick out like a sore thumb next summer. So will Russell’s.

  12. Jaxon says:

    Does anyone have a definitive (and sourced) answer on whether Russell’s has a full NMC kicks that in right away and becomes a modified NMC on July 1, 2019 or he has no clauses until his modified NMC kicks in on July 1st, 2019. I’m finding conflicting info. There were reports that there was no NMC until the modified NMC in his 3rd year, but CapFriendly has it as a full NMC until the 3rd year when it becomes a modified NMC.

  13. Ducey says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    Doesn’t Jussi Jokinen make some sense to sign as a free agent. I think he would helpPuljujarvi especially the language barrier . Also he is good on face offs. Obviouslyprice is the question

    The guy is consistently inconsistent. He has great years and then turns into a pumpkin. He is 34.

    Pumpkin is increasingly likely.

    I would not sign him unless it was dirt cheap ($1 M or less).

    Pak can be the interpreter, if one is needed.

    Ideally he is interpreting in the AHL because the Oilers have signed someone to keep JP and him on the farm

  14. speeds says:

    godot10:
    None of those comparables Speeds uses are 8-year comparables…looking at the TOTAL compensation those players are likely to receive over 8 years.

    Draisaitl would clearly accept less on a comparable deal of five or six years.But then the Oilers lose cost control in the latter half of McDavid’s deal, when they would have to re-sign Draisaitl.

    Scheifele and Tarasenko were 8 years, Monahan was 7 years, Barkov and Gaudreau 6 years.

    If my choice was 6 years of Draisaitl at 6.5M or 8 years at 8.5M, I’d take the contract without the 2 additional years at a cost of 14.5M per year.

  15. Snowman says:

    godot10:
    None of those comparables Speeds uses are 8-year comparables…looking at the TOTAL compensation those players are likely to receive over 8 years.

    Draisaitl would clearly accept less on a comparable deal of five or six years.But then the Oilers lose cost control in the latter half of McDavid’s deal, when they would have to re-sign Draisaitl.

    Centres like Draisaitl, as I argued yesterday, receive at the time of signing typically 11-11.5% of the cap for the eight years after their ELC. That puts Draisaitl in the mid-$8 million something over eight years.
    That is the market based on the last decade for eight contract years coming out of an ELC.

    Draisaitl is likely a centre for years to come. However, he hasn’t proved much of anything at center aside from 4 good games against the Ducks. His contract will be based on his performance as a winger playing with the best player on Earth. I think you are likely right the with the mid 8s. But it shouldn’t be because he a) hasn’t proved himself in the pivot role (maybe he’s an 80 point winger with Mcdavid and a 50 point center without him, I don’t know if that’s the case but that’s the problem nobody does) b) he’s been zoomed by Connor.

  16. Jaxon says:

    speeds:
    OriginalPouzar,

    It’s hard to know exactly what Maroon projects to.

    Both Maroon and Eaves had notably bigger years last year than anything in their NHL careers, Eaves with 32 goals to Maroon’s 27.Eaves just signed for 3 years, 3.15AAV, and seems like a really strong comparable?

    I agree, although, you could argue that Maroon’s 4 years younger, so is more likely to sustain. But, then again, Eaves didn’t have McDavid as his center. So maybe those two components cancel each other out.

    I could also see Maroon approaching St. Louis and giving them a big discount to play there, near his son. That video of him getting emotional when his son was cheering in the crowd is pretty powerful evidence. So he may set the bar pretty high to play in Edmonton and pretty low to play in St Louis. I know I’d give a huge discount to play in St Louis if it was my daughter. In the end, it may also be to his advantage to have a more reasonable contract going forward for when he isn’t on McDavid’s line, so he doesn’t become the next overpaid goat.

  17. leadfarmer says:

    Jaxon:
    Does anyone have a definitive (and sourced) answer on whether Russell’s has a full NMC kicks that in right away and becomes a modified NMC on July 1, 2019 or he has no clauses until his modified NMC kicks in on July 1st, 2019. I’m finding conflicting info. There were reports that there was no NMC until the modified NMC in his 3rd year, but CapFriendly has it as a full NMC until the 3rd year when it becomes a modified NMC.

    He has a NMC for waivers for the 4 years. So he can’t be given the Fayne treatment.
    After July 1 2020 he is owed 1.5 million and can be traded to 15 teams. Chia made this so he can dump him on someone his 4th year

  18. Ducey says:

    TO10801: I think Jokinen would be a perfect fit. Then you would have 5C’s in the top 6 and could run something like:
    Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl
    Lucic-Nuge-Puljujarvi
    Caggiula-Jokinen-Strome
    Sleppy-Letestu-Kassian
    Khaira-Pak

    I would like to think that 3rd line could do some damage against soft competition.

    Jokinen only took 145 faceoffs last year. He is a LW most likely.

    10 of his 28 points were on the PP, so he is not killing it 5 x 5 either. He was playing 17+ minutes a night and didn’t produce much. There was reason he was bought out.

    He looks like one of those guys that will be making more $ returning to Europe.

  19. Rondo says:

    Ducey,

    Jussi Jokinen looks pretty good on the Vollman’s chart

    https://twitter.com/robvollmanNHL/status/882793051797692416

  20. Hall Awaits says:

    Jaxon,

    Forgot that Dwight King hadn’t signed yet. He might be a nice late pick up and possible Maroon replacement for 2018/19. Had a horrible contract year but still has game.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    speeds:
    OriginalPouzar,

    It’s hard to know exactly what Maroon projects to.

    Both Maroon and Eaves had notably bigger years last year than anything in their NHL careers, Eaves with 32 goals to Maroon’s 27.Eaves just signed for 3 years, 3.15AAV, and seems like a really strong comparable?

    Valid point, although I think Patty is a few years younger. Also, even at a cap hit around $3.5M, I think that’s too rich for us next year and we need to be hopefull that a JP or a Yakamoto (or even a Benson) will be able to perform in such role on their ELC (or a Caggulia/Slepy on their 2nd cheap contracts and their previous roles replaced by an ELC player).

  22. speeds says:

    leadfarmer: He has a NMC for waivers for the 4 years.So he can’t be given the Fayne treatment.
    After July 1 2020 he is owed 1.5 million and can be traded to 15 teams.Chia made this so he can dump him on someone his 4th year

    It’s possible that’s why they made it that way. It certainly isn’t ideal to include a year 4 NMC if that’s the case, but it’s possible.

    I think I recall hearing Chiarelli say the structure was set up that way at the request of the agent, wanting the money a bit front loaded. That fits with the inclusion of a year 4 NMC, but it’s possible they were both looking at both things.

  23. Jaxon says:

    leadfarmer: He has a NMC for waivers for the 4 years.So he can’t be given the Fayne treatment.
    After July 1 2020 he is owed 1.5 million and can be traded to 15 teams.Chia made this so he can dump him on someone his 4th year

    Do you have a source for this info? Having a hard time confirming.

  24. Ribs says:

    With all of McDavid’s “team” and “teammates” talk yesterday, it should be difficult for Draisatl to put his name down on an offer sheet now. I think he’d lose a lot of respect from a lot of people if he did that.

    That said, money talks. I’d like to see a quick extension done and cement the belief that these guys are here to win together.

  25. speeds says:

    OriginalPouzar: Valid point, although I think Patty is a few years younger. Also, even at a cap hit around $3.5M, I think that’s too rich for us next year and we need to be hopefull that a JP or a Yakamoto (or even a Benson) will be able to perform in such role on their ELC (or a Caggulia/Slepy on their 2nd cheap contracts and their previous roles replaced by an ELC player).

    Yup, based on age, wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Maroon get more term, money might depend on this season (unless he signs an extension this summer).

  26. Ribs says:

    Rondo:
    Ducey,

    Jussi Jokinen looks pretty good on the Vollman’s chart

    https://twitter.com/robvollmanNHL/status/882793051797692416

    Jokinen always seems to look good by the numbers and yet teams keep jettisoning him into the sun. There must be some kind of unseen baggage that comes with this guy.

  27. TO10801 says:

    Ribs: Jokinen always seems to look good by the numbers and yet teams keep jettisoning him into the sun. There must be some kind of unseen baggage that comes with this guy.

    The guy had 60 points in 2015-16. I’m not saying pay him a boat load for a long time but a 1yr/2M deal would be a worthwhile investment IMO.

  28. npanciroli says:

    Jokinen or Jagr and Franson or Markov for me.

    Markov seems very unlikely but would be awesome on a 1 yr contract.

  29. godot10 says:

    Snowman: Draisaitl is likely a centre for years to come. However, he hasn’t proved much of anything at center aside from 4 good games against the Ducks. His contract will be based on his performance as a winger playing with the best player on Earth. I think you are likely right the with the mid 8s. But it shouldn’t be because he a) hasn’t proved himself in the pivot role (maybe he’s an 80 point winger with Mcdavid and a 50 point center without him, I don’t know if that’s the case but that’s the problem nobody does) b) he’s been zoomed by Connor.

    Draisaitl played most of his 2nd season at centre…nearly 60 points…and it would have been higher if he had not run out of gas in February, as he still hadn’t built up the endurance to move that big body around against men for a full season.

  30. Scungilli Slushy says:

    There are many reasonable ways to do Draisaitl’s contract. If I had to do it I would set parameters of what I think I can and should do, and go from there.

    My priorities are to not cap strap myself especially after Connor’s deal. Then it’s to retain control of the player as long as possible.

    If a salary can’t be agreed upon, a bridge ‘show me’ deal works, but there is no way I’m letting a guy coming off an ELC go straight to UFA. Three years or less. In the Tarasenko range works, it’s fair.

    If I can go longer, I’ll pay a little more to gain cost certainty. I’d do this by deciding what I’m willing to pay for Connor and Leon as a percentage of the cap, take Connor’s out of that and that is my max. So if it’s 22M, it’s 9.5M.

    If neither of those work, this is not an influence I want on my team.

  31. Richard S.S. says:

    There are rumours coming from multiple unreliable/unconfirmable sources that potential Offer Sheets have been presented to the Draisaitl Camp. Since the reported number was in the $7.0 – $7.5 Million per year range, they were probably turned down. I just wonder if Peter Chiarelli knows? I think he does.

  32. JJS says:

    godot10: Draisaitl played most of his 2nd season at centre…nearly 60 points…and it would have been higher if he had not run out of gas in February, as he still hadn’t built up the endurance to move that big body around against men for a full season.

    But Hall was pushing that river

    I believe Dr Drai is the real deal but he has yet to push a line for a sustained period of time

    Hence, there should be some hesitation in using the other comparables at this point

    This is a bit of a catch 22 – not unlike Subban – where a bridge deal could help or hinder either side

  33. N64 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If I can go longer, I’ll pay a little more to gain cost certainty. I’d do this by deciding what I’m willing to pay for Connor and Leon as a percentage of the cap, take Connor’s out of that and that is my max. So if it’s 22M, it’s 9.5M

    Suspect they’d have Drai already signed for 8 years for that.
    Suspect this will end up in the 21-22 range is they close a 8 year deal.

  34. Aron_S says:

    LT,

    Here’s a team that I’ve been projecting for 18-19. I’m of the belief that Chiarelli is going to have to go short and low (bridge) for Nurse and Benning (depending on the years they have). As long as Russell and Sekera are on this roster the team is going to be tied down with expensive, long term contracts. Maybe a Nurse or Benning gets moved out in a year or two if one of Bear, Jones or Piagin turn out.

    This roster loses Maroon and keeps Nuge and anticipates similar years from Caggiula and Slep.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/402950

    It really is going to be about cap management going forward.

  35. Ducey says:

    Richard S.S.:
    There are rumours coming from multiple unreliable/unconfirmable sources that potential Offer Sheets have been presented to the Draisaitl Camp.Since the reported number was in the $7.0 – $7.5 Million per year range, they were probably turned down.I just wonder if Peter Chiarelli knows?I think he does.

    There are rumours coming from unreliable/ unconfirmable sources?

    Well, we should be worried then.

  36. Richard S.S. says:

    Generally allow 1/3 of the Cap for top four D plus Goaltender. Allow 1/3 of the Cap for your top three Centers. The remaining 1/3 of the Cap signs everyone else, but any saving from the first 2/3 goes here.

    Keeping Nuge means Draisaitl gets $6.5 Million. If Draisaitl gets paid more, they’re unlikely to be able to keep Nuge, but they’ll have to keep Strome. Defense plus Goal is signed for a bargain $22.0 Million, with any saving going to the last group ( the rest of the Team)

    This year the Oilers are fine financially, but every move has far reaching significance. If the Cap for the 2018-19 season goes up $1.0 Million, Draisaitl gets $6.833 Million. If it goes up $1.5 million then Draisaitl gets $7.0 Million. To pay Draisaitl $8.0 the Cap must go up $4.8 Million – an unreasonable amount. Does Draisaitl get signed or traded? Do the Oilers keep RNH or trade him?

  37. N64 says:

    JJS: Hall was pushing that river

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/07/a-look-at-nhl-teams-results-with-and.html

    STAR DFF% vs ELITE FORWARDS
    PLAYER/ON ICE/OFF ICE/DIFF

    ZUCCARELLO 56.7 47.1 9.6
    SAAD 55.9 47.6 8.3
    KUCHEROV 56.3 48.8 7.5
    MCDAVID 55.2 47.9 7.3
    HALL 54.1 47.3 6.8
    STAAL 57.3 51.2 6.1
    TAVARES 51 44.9 6.1
    MARCHAND 55.6 50.1 5.5
    CROSBY 60.3 55.5 4.8
    KOIVU 55.5 50.8 4.7
    JOHANSEN 55.5 51.1 4.4
    KOPITAR 56 51.8 4.2

  38. McNuge93 says:

    Sorry this is way off topic but does anybody know how Benson looked at the prospects camp?

  39. jm363561 says:

    Aron_S:
    Here’s a team that I’ve been projecting for 18-19. I’m of the belief that Chiarelli is going to have to go short and low (bridge) for Nurse and Benning (depending on the years they have). As long as Russell and Sekera are on this roster the team is going to be tied down with expensive, long term contracts. Maybe a Nurse or Benning gets moved out in a year or two if one of Bear, Jones or Piagin turn out.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/402950
    It really is going to be about cap management going forward.
    ======

    Thank you for sharing this – a very easy way to look at plausible scenarios. I like Russell and was pretty relaxed about his new contract until I saw your 2018.19 template- hmm. Every extra $100k to Drai matters. Anyone still complaining about the Eberle trade should look at this.

    The saving grace might be as elite players are being paid more, the “Middling” players may become cheaper e.g. Eaves, and the “Gritensity” players cheaper still.

  40. Chachi says:

    McNuge93:
    Sorry this is way off topic but does anybody know how Benson looked at the prospects camp?

    I believe he looked mostly from the stands.

  41. Ducey says:

    Chachi: I believe he looked from the stands.

    He skated in the drills but did not play in the games.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/edmonton-oilers-prospect-tyler-benson-hopes-injury-curse-is-behind-him

  42. Aron_S says:

    jm363561,

    Yeah, and it’s also why Jon Willis strenuously arguing against the Pouliot buyout this year (instead of next) really made a lot of sense. It takes away precious cap space for two more years after 18-19 (and unless something big happens at the deadline, it really looks like the Oilers didn’t need that extra 2.67M this season.

  43. McNuge93 says:

    Ducey: He skated in the drills but did not play in the games.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/edmonton-oilers-prospect-tyler-benson-hopes-injury-curse-is-behind-him

    Thanks. Still a work in progress I see.

  44. godot10 says:

    JJS: But Hall was pushing that river

    I believe Dr Drai is the real deal but he has yet to push a line for a sustained period of time

    Hence, there should be some hesitation in using the other comparables at this point

    This is a bit of a catch 22 – not unlike Subban – where a bridge deal could help or hinder either side

    If you bridge him, and let Tavares, Eichel, Matthews, and Seguin sign their contracts, the Oilers are going to be looking at $11 million dollars instead of $8.5 million, which screws up the ability to compete in the 2nd half of McDavid’s deal.

    The Oilers can get cost certainly for McDavid and Draisaitl for 8 years, which only McDavid’s contract out there right now in the new order of salary scale. They can probably get both for $21 million for eight years.

    If you bridge Draisatl, one is looking at over $23 million for those two in the last five years of McDavid’s contract because the new salary structure will be confirmed shortly with four more big signing in Tavares, Matthews, Eichel, and and Seguin.

    The OIlers have a small window to get Draisaitl locked in at a good number $8.5 that is manageable.

    There is Johanssen coming this summer also, likely with a big number.

  45. N64 says:

    godot10: If you bridge him, and let Tavares, Eichel, Matthews, and Seguin sign their contracts, the Oilers are going to be looking at $11 million dollars instead of $8.5 million, which screws up the ability to compete in the 2nd half of McDavid’s deal.

    The Oilers can get cost certainly for McDavid and Draisaitl for 8 years, which only McDavid’s contract out there right now in the new order of salary scale.They can probably get both for $21 million for eight years.

    If you bridge Draisatl, one is looking at over $23 million for those two in the last five years of McDavid’s contract because the new salary structure will be confirmed shortly with four more big signing in Tavares, Matthews, Eichel, and and Seguin.

    The OIlers have a small window to get Draisaitl locked in at a good number $8.5 that is manageable.

    There is Johanssen coming this summer also, likely with a big number.

    +1.

    8 years is gonna be in the 8s.

    That money we saved paying Larsson instead of Hall has to go somewhere. Drai not Lucic was always the potential Hall replacement at the river pusher position. Not there yet with larger samples. But decision time, not challenge time.

  46. Ducey says:

    We get all wound up about Leon, but the fact is that there are a ton of RFA’s to be taken care of:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2018/caphit/all/all/rfa

  47. N64 says:

    Ducey:
    We get all wound up about Leon, but the fact is that there are a ton of RFA’s to be taken care of:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2018/caphit/all/all/rfa

    yep, top 5 2016-17 point getters shaping the market after mcdavid signed are:

    1. Leon Draisaitl 77
    2. David Pastrnak 70
    3. Mikael Granlund 69
    4. Viktor Arvidsson 61
    5. Ryan Johansen 61

  48. leadfarmer says:

    Jaxon: Do you have a source for this info? Having a hard time confirming.

    Nevermind I was wrong. He has a 2 year NMC, 1 year NTC to 10 teams, 1 year NTC to 15 teams

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2017/06/23/edmonton-oilers-sign-defenceman-kris-russell-to-four-year-contract-worth-4-million-per-season

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-return-of-kris-russell-to-edmonton-oilers-blueline-is-defensible-but-for-four-years

    Not that Chia was planning on moving him in the next 2 years anyway

  49. TO10801 says:

    N64: yep, top 5 point getters shaping the market after mcdavid signed are:

    1. Leon Draisaitl77
    2. David Pastrnak70
    3. Mikael Granlund69
    4. Viktor Arvidsson61
    5. Ryan Johansen61

    I wonder if Johansen and Draisaitl are waiting to see which of them signs and for what. Kuznetsov should have set the market for young star Cs, so I would expect Drai to come in at around 7.5M and Johansen at 8.5M. The thing to remember with Drai is that we are not buying the UFA years like WSH did with Kuznetsov and that NSH will do with Johansen.

  50. N64 says:

    TO10801: The thing to remember with Drai is that we are not buying the UFA years like WSH did with Kuznetsov and that NSH will do with Johansen.

    Not convinced that the discount for elite players RFA years is what it used to be. Not zero like for 97 but apparently down a lot.

  51. HiddenDarts says:

    Chachi: I believe he looked mostly from the stands.

    Glad we replaced old Injured Tyler with a new Injured Tyler.

    We all would have missed the ol’ “man, if only this guy could shake the injuries…” and, “there’s a player there, I swear it!”.

    All is right in Oilers World.

  52. who says:

    JJS: But Hall was pushing that river

    I believe Dr Drai is the real deal but he has yet to push a line for a sustained period of time

    Hence, there should be some hesitation in using the other comparables at this point

    This is a bit of a catch 22 – not unlike Subban – where a bridge deal could help or hinder either side

    How do you know Hall was pushing that river? Maybe Drai was zooming Hall. From what I saw Drai carried the play just as much as Hall. When Drais production fell off so did Halls. This narrative that everyone has zoomed Drai is getting a little tiresome.

  53. Jaxon says:

    leadfarmer: Nevermind I was wrong.He has a 2 year NMC, 1 year NTC to 10 teams, 1 year NTC to 15 teams

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2017/06/23/edmonton-oilers-sign-defenceman-kris-russell-to-four-year-contract-worth-4-million-per-season

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-return-of-kris-russell-to-edmonton-oilers-blueline-is-defensible-but-for-four-years

    Not that Chia was planning on moving him in the next 2 years anyway

    He should have been planning on possibly moving him, and as soon as next summer. He knew what was coming down the pipe with McDavid and Draisaitl. Russell’s contract could have waited. It’s almost certain because of Russell’s contract that one of Nurse or Benning will be gone next year now. All he had to do was make sure he didn’t give Russell a NMC in his first season.

  54. Visually better says:

    The play for the oilers is to get a proven veteran high end scorer for McDavid. If Drai plays Center (I really hope he does) there are nothing but a bunch of question marks on who plays on 97’s wing. I would really hope chia gets a proven scorer or volume shooter (Eaves at 1 year, 1 mil is a huge win for Ana.) to allow for Drai to play 2C.

    Keep going back to getting James Neal off of Vegas. It is possible that you could get him for just a pick or two and/or a prospect without losing a roster spot. 1 year left at 5 mil is exactly what we need. Vegas will most likely wait till the deadline to get the most in return but we shall see.

    Wayne Simmonds will always be my number one target but don’t see the oilers having much to offer that philly would consider, they are in a weird spot right now between but they have a solid core and are getting some great prospects in the mix as well. Simmonds has 2 years left at just a hair under 4 Mil and his right shot would put up 50 alongside McDavid.

  55. russ99 says:

    Hall and Drai are poor comparisons since they play different styles.

    Hall was a rush player and pretty much lived and died on that carry along the left wall play. Before McLellan he was horrid on the cycle.

    When Leon is with Connor, Connor is the one primarily carrying the puck, and Leon is the late trailer.

    When he’s without Connor, he’s playing a cycle game.

    So the whole “push the river” comparisons don’t really fly.

  56. russ99 says:

    Jaxon: He should have been planning on possibly moving him, and as soon as next summer. He knew what was coming down the pipe with McDavid and Draisaitl. Russell’s contract could have waited. It’s almost certain because of Russell’s contract that one of Nurse or Benning will be gone next year now. All he had to do was make sure he didn’t give Russell a NMC in his first season.

    The only way that’s a factor is if either Benning or Nurse elevate their game, especially in our zone.

    No way to tell when that happens, so Chia went with the guy who he knows what he’s going to get.

  57. N64 says:

    leadfarmer: Nevermind I was wrong.He has a 2 year NMC, 1 year NTC to 10 teams, 1 year NTC to 15 teams

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2017/06/23/edmonton-oilers-sign-defenceman-kris-russell-to-four-year-contract-worth-4-million-per-season

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-return-of-kris-russell-to-edmonton-oilers-blueline-is-defensible-but-for-four-years

    Not that Chia was planning on moving him in the next 2 years anyway

    A lot of reporting that there is a full NMC first 2 years and a limited NMC + limited NTC the last 2 years. Some reporting that the limited NMC is for the purposes of waivers. Apparently not requiring expansion protection. Not a chance he’s exempt from expansion in last 2 years.

  58. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: How do you know Hall was pushing that river? Maybe Drai was zooming Hall. From what I saw Drai carried the play just as much as Hall. When Drais production fell off so did Halls. This narrative that everyone has zoomed Drai is getting a little tiresome.

    Hall had the same effect on everyone he played with, including Nuge and Eberle, over years.

  59. N64 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Hall had the same effect on everyone he played with, including Nuge and Eberle, over years.

    Still does as per the Woodguys cribbed above. Let’s not end up without Hall AND Drai. That’s a bridge not to build.

  60. Jaxon says:

    russ99: The only way that’s a factor is if either Benning or Nurse elevate their game, especially in our zone.

    No way to tell when that happens, so Chia went with the guy who he knows what he’s going to get.

    I think Benning is as good as or better than Russell already, especially on the right side.
    And Nurse, man I would not want to let that guy go. So much speed, so much power. He’s very close to putting it all together.

  61. rickithebear says:

    Russel, Russell. Russell,

    His affect on targeting is critical to his affect.

    1. Blocks

    2. Forced misses

    3. 0 Chance Shot rates.

    The pucks do not curve tlike the bullits in “wanted”

    Though Puck IQ seems to think they do after blocks!

  62. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon: I think Benning is as good as or better than Russell already, especially on the right side.
    And Nurse, man I would not want to let that guy go. So much speed, so much power. He’s very close to putting it all together.

    I’d agree, but with young players the difference is in experience and consistency. Good veterans on the whole are less likely to miss a coverage, know how to get through things which the young guys are still learning how to do or how to play situations in the moment. For example the young Anaheim D made plenty of mistakes that I saw, they don’t all go in the net.

  63. Jaxon says:

    rickithebear:
    Russel, Russell. Russell,

    His affect on targeting is critical to his affect.

    1. Blocks

    2. Forced misses

    3. 0 Chance Shot rates.

    The pucks do not curve tlike the bullits in “wanted”

    Though Puck IQ seems to think they do after blocks!

    What about the statistical evidence that he is a drag on the numbers of the best player in the world?. Meaning he is not helping at getting the pick to the right spots for Mc David to get scoring opportunities. That’s a pretty big deal, too, no?

  64. pocession charge says:

    Visually better:
    I would really hope chia gets a proven scorer or volume shooter (Eaves at 1 year, 1 mil is a huge win for Ana.) to allow for Drai to play 2C.

    Not sure where you are getting your information from but you might want to double check those numbers for Eaves.

  65. pocession charge says:

    Jaxon: What about the statistical evidence that he is a drag on the numbers of the best player in the world?. Meaning he is not helping at getting the pick to the right spots for Mc David to get scoring opportunities. That’s a pretty big deal, too, no?

    When they are in the ice together, their goal differential is very good. Don’t forget the other end of the rink.

  66. LoDog says:

    Jaxon: What about the statistical evidence that he is a drag on the numbers of the best player in the world?. Meaning he is not helping at getting the pick to the right spots for Mc David to get scoring opportunities. That’s a pretty big deal, too, no?

    What about the statistical evidence that he lowers the GA as well, with a tidy goal diff?

  67. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon: What about the statistical evidence that he is a drag on the numbers of the best player in the world?. Meaning he is not helping at getting the pick to the right spots for Mc David to get scoring opportunities. That’s a pretty big deal, too, no?

    Russell is a conundrum statistically. Bruce did an article trying to get to the bottom of it, Russell has a history of weak share shots and good goal diffs. Bloggers don’t like him, teams find something in his game they like. I’m not sure who’s right yet.

    I thought he was getting beat too often and losing coverage earlier in the year, some have said he came on later. It could have been settling in to the system.

  68. New Improved Darkness says:

    My post just now was marked as spam. Perhaps my most epic irreverence yet. Demented to the bone, and deep, too.

    Only two embedded links. And just four chapters.

  69. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, you’ve been expending a considerable amount of 1’s and 0’s this offseason projecting the lineup with RNH at 2C

    Barring injuries, no doubt in my mind that TMac breaks camp with Leon as the 2C. Certainly Nuge will be waiting in the wings should Leon fail to swim against the toughs, but you would have to think that the goal initially will be to establish 2 lines that can score against tough comps rather than one that can score and one that can keep its head above water?

    Seems to me like good fodder for a friendly wager, no?; )

  70. Doug McLachlan says:

    Aron_S,

    What is Mike Green’s cap hit come the deadline? Asking for a friend.

  71. npanciroli says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    It’s interesting because my initial guess was:

    McDavid Strome
    Drai
    RNH

    But after Chiarelli discussed Strome, it almost sounds like:

    McDavid Drai
    RNH
    Strome

    I personally like the top one better.

  72. Bag of Pucks says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Generally allow 1/3 of the Cap for top four D plus Goaltender.Allow 1/3 of the Cap for your top three Centers.The remaining 1/3 of the Cap signs everyone else, but any saving from the first 2/3 goes here.

    Keeping Nuge means Draisaitl gets $6.5 Million.If Draisaitl gets paid more, they’re unlikely to be able tokeep Nuge, but they’ll have to keep Strome. Defense plus Goal is signed for a bargain $22.0 Million, with any saving going to the last group ( the rest of the Team)

    This year the Oilers are fine financially, but every move has far reaching significance.If the Cap for the 2018-19 season goes up $1.0 Million, Draisaitl gets $6.833 Million.If it goes up $1.5 million then Draisaitl gets $7.0 Million.To pay Draisaitl $8.0 the Cap must go up $4.8 Million – an unreasonable amount. Does Draisaitl get signed or traded?Do the Oilers keep RNH or trade him?

    Suspect they’ll sign Drai for 8ish and trade RNH in the offseason unless Nuge has a breakout year offensively. If he does, then they’ve got a nice decision to make, or possibly a Lucic trade starts to enter the conversation.

  73. LMHF#1 says:

    rickithebear:
    Russel, Russell. Russell,

    His affect on targeting is critical to his affect.

    1. Blocks

    2. Forced misses

    3. 0 Chance Shot rates.

    The pucks do not curve tlike the bullits in “wanted”

    Though Puck IQ seems to think they do after blocks!

    Would it be utterly crazy to suggest that the reason Russell needs to block so many pucks is because he’s a bad defender period and his turnovers/positioning/lack of coverage lead to desperation blocks?

    That would seem to match both eye and numbers.

  74. Bag of Pucks says:

    npanciroli:
    Bag of Pucks,

    It’s interesting because my initial guess was:

    McDavid Strome
    Drai
    RNH

    But after Chiarelli discussed Strome, it almost sounds like:

    McDavid Drai
    RNH
    Strome

    I personally like the top one better.

    Me too. Leon is too good a playmaker/passer to keep on the wing.

    I think the issue has been that he’s on McDavid’s W, not because they don’t like him at 2C, but because they just haven’t found the right 1RW to gel with Connor yet. Let’s hope it’s Strome!

  75. Bank Shot says:

    Draisaitl- 17% shooting percentage regular season.

    Playoffs-27%

    PP production- 6.83 p/60. Best on the Oilers. 12th in the NHL. Last year he scored 3 p/60.

    These are red flags for me on Draisaitl.

    His shooting percentage is likely to drop.

    Likely his PP production will drop as well. Guys like Crosby and Malkin don’t hit 6.83 every season.
    We already went through this with RNH as the PP witch.

    For these reasons, I think if I were the general manager, I would try to bridge, or take the lowest number of years possible in order to get that cap hit down.

    Draisaitl isn’t likely to repeat this season IMO. If he does, great, pay the man. I’d just like to see it happen again before locking him up into something there will be no getting out of.

  76. admiralmark says:

    godot10: If you bridge him, and let Tavares, Eichel, Matthews, and Seguin sign their contracts, the Oilers are going to be looking at $11 million dollars instead of $8.5 million, which screws up the ability to compete in the 2nd half of McDavid’s deal.

    The Oilers can get cost certainly for McDavid and Draisaitl for 8 years, which only McDavid’s contract out there right now in the new order of salary scale.They can probably get both for $21 million for eight years.

    If you bridge Draisatl, one is looking at over $23 million for those two in the last five years of McDavid’s contract because the new salary structure will be confirmed shortly with four more big signing in Tavares, Matthews, Eichel, and and Seguin.

    The OIlers have a small window to get Draisaitl locked in at a good number $8.5 that is manageable.

    There is Johanssen coming this summer also, likely with a big number.

    If the Oilers play Draisaitl all year at 2C what do you think his #’s would look like? I don’t think it would look like an $11 mill/yr player. Loved to be proven wrong though.

  77. T0ML says:

    I believe the fear is that if a bridge is given, the oilers are lookign at a much higher number. As it stands the only recent precedent would be McDavid, or contracts a few years old that everyone argues the comparison validity. However coming up due over the next year are several players around the same level of verbal/hype that Drai is currently, of which their commands will be seven digits. So the precedent would be set at that point rather than the ~8m being bandied about at this point in time.

    admiralmark: If the Oilers play Draisaitl all year at 2C what do you think his #’s would look like? I don’t think it would look like an $11 mill/yr player. Loved to be proven wrong though.

  78. Visually better says:

    pocession charge: Not sure where you are getting your information from but you might want to double check those numbers for Eaves.

    Haha I for sure thought that wasn’t right… that was his previous contract. 3 years at just over 3 is still a nice deal for the ducks.

  79. rickithebear says:

    Jaxon: I think Benning is as good as or better than Russell already, especially on the right side.
    And Nurse, man I would not want to let that guy go. So much speed, so much power. He’s very close to putting it all together.

    Nurse is the complete opposite of an efficient Def Dman.
    He skates the puck up allowing opps to spread across N. Zone.
    the d can pressure the blue and for ce him to the perimeter.
    a lot of failed deep entries with minimal success G or A.
    with opposition attacking.
    he can skate back fast but is still usually trailing the opposition forward.
    allowing HD penetration.
    As a result his EVGA60 is historically awful.
    and usually drags his partners results down.

    Nurse:
    w/ Sekera 2.91 EVGA60
    w/ Gryba 1.88
    w/ j. Schultz 2.96
    w/ Benning 2.44
    w/ Clandenning 2.59
    w/ fayne 3.03
    ———————————- less than 150 EVTOI
    w/ Larsson 3.77
    w/ Davidson 4.60

  80. admiralmark says:

    T0ML says:
    July 6, 2017 at 1:18 pm
    I believe the fear is that if a bridge is given, the oilers are lookign at a much higher number. As it stands the only recent precedent would be McDavid, or contracts a few years old that everyone argues the comparison validity. However coming up due over the next year are several players around the same level of verbal/hype that Drai is currently, of which their commands will be seven digits. So the precedent would be set at that point rather than the ~8m being bandied about at this point in time.

    Again I get the concern/risk. I’m just saying that 1 year as 2C without Hall or McDavid on your line is going to tell a different story. As was stated above he also rode a hot shooting %. So do I think his #’s will come down as 2C with Slepeshev and Lucic as his linemates? Yup. This doesn’t mean I dont think he could become a dominant C. I just think right now all the Track we have on Draisaitl he was either being zoomed or his shoot % is unsustainable. I would offer him $6.5 Mill x 3 years play him with McDavid if need be but transition him into the 2C role and see exactly what we got.

  81. Richard S.S. says:

    An LT favorite, Mark Pysyk signs three years with Florida. Cap Hit:$2.733.

    Thanks for pointing out my mistake.

  82. magneto says:

    LoDog: What about the statistical evidence that he lowers the GA as well, with a tidy goal diff?

    Lets check that number over Russell’s last few years?

    GA/60 GF%
    1.690 54.7
    2.902 47.7
    2.305 56.1
    2.675 46.1
    1.786 54.8
    1.774 59.7
    2.549 47.5
    1.857 54.3
    1.991 48.0
    2.182 40.9

    Is there anything repeatable in there? What are the odds it goes back to sub 50%? Without Sekera to help that might be a rough 21mins a night.

  83. Ducey says:

    Jaxon: He should have been planning on possibly moving him, and as soon as next summer. He knew what was coming down the pipe with McDavid and Draisaitl. Russell’s contract could have waited. It’s almost certain because of Russell’s contract that one of Nurse or Benning will be gone next year now. All he had to do was make sure he didn’t give Russell a NMC in his first season.

    Russell’s contract could have waited until July 1? Sorry but this doesn’t even make sense with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight (which I think powers Twitter).

    Waiting would have increased the number suitors from 1 to 31. You would be counting on other teams not to be interested and reasonable.

    I think its quite likely CGY would have signed him to the same contract he got from the Oilers instead of giving up a first and two seconds for Hamonic.

    You may notice that there are not a lot of good UFA defensemen out there right now that you could get for $4 M or less and can play both sides. The only guy I see as an option by trade would be Demers, who FLA apparently wants to unload after one year. The Oilers could have had him for $4.5 M x 4 and a modified NTC (if he in fact waived – which he refused to do for VAN).

    Waiting on Russell may have driven up his price or allowed him to go elsewhere. The Oilers would likely have to give up some assets to get someone else.

  84. Ducey says:

    Richard S.S.:
    An LT favorite, Mark Pysyk signs three years with Arizona.Cap Hit:$2.733.

    Florida.

  85. npanciroli says:

    magneto,

    Do any of these line up with certain teams or partners or playing a certain side of the ice? More curious than anything.

  86. Richard S.S. says:

    Ducey,

    I can totally agree with that.

  87. magneto says:

    Ducey: Russell’s contract could have waited until July 1? Sorry but this doesn’t even make sense with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight (which I think powers Twitter).

    Waiting would have increased the number suitors from 1 to 31. You would be counting on other teams not to be interested and reasonable.

    I think its quite likely CGY would have signed him to the same contract he got from the Oilers instead of giving up a first and two seconds for Hamonic.

    You may notice that there are not a lot of good UFA defensemen out there right now that you could get for $4 M or less and can play both sides. The only guy I see as an option by trade would be Demers, who FLA apparently wants to unload after one year. The Oilers could have had him for $4.5 M x 4 and a modified NTC (if he in fact waived – which he refused to do for VAN).

    Waiting on Russell may have driven up his price or allowed him to go elsewhere.The Oilers would likely have to give up some assets to get someone else.

    Only 2 UFA D have signed for 4 or more years, what are the chances someone would have offered Russell 4 years?

    Daley 3×3.166m
    Hunwick 3×2.25m
    Kulikov 3×4.333m

    That would have been Russell’s range

  88. Richard S.S. says:

    So Sekera will be back and at 100% mid- to late November, mid- to late December, mid- to late January, mid- to late February, mid- to late March or not this coming Season. Anyone sure which it is?

  89. blainer says:

    Leon was a R/W and a center last year.

    He will continue to be both next year and into the playoffs. Depending whether we are on the road or at home or just need to generate offense.. his position can and will change.

    Leon will continue to be on the 1st PP with CMD and that alone will keep getting him points just based on playing the PP with one of the two best players in the world.

    This much I am pretty certain of.

    I like Russell. Screw the stats on this player .. he had a great playoff and I think he helps and am happy to have him back.. for two years anyway.

    I really think Caleb Jones is gonna push for a spot as early as camp. Just my gut but I really think that guy is the goods.

    This draft looks great. I think one more year like this year at the draft and we will be well stocked for a good few years.

    Man the competition that will be at camp this September and every year going forward is gonna be something like we have not seen in a long time.

  90. magneto says:

    npanciroli,

    I think that is the big problem, who knows? You are paying for the good but you are going to get the bad every second year.

    GA/60 GF% Most Common Partner (Handedness of partner)
    1.690 54.7 Sekera (LH)
    2.902 47.7 D. Hamilton (RH)
    2.305 56.1 D. Wideman (RH)
    2.675 46.1 C. Butler (LH)
    1.786 54.8 R. Polak (RH)
    1.774 59.7 R. Polak (RH)
    2.549 47.5 G. Clitsome (LH)
    1.857 54.3 M. Commodore (RH)
    1.991 48.0 C. Backman (LH)
    2.182 40.9 O.K. Tollefsen (LH)

    So a bit of a correlation between partner handedness and positive GF% except for the last 2 years. Learn something new…

  91. npanciroli says:

    magneto,

    Thanks!

    really interesting that he looks ok with a RH partner. Wonder if he can duplicate with Benning or Larsson.

  92. pocession charge says:

    Visually better: Haha I for sure thought that wasn’t right… that was his previous contract. 3 years at just over 3 is still a nice deal for the ducks.

    Yes, on the surface it looks like a great deal for Anaheim. They also got Ryan Miller as a backup for $2M/year. They won’t have Lindholm or Vatanen to start the season but they’ll still be good (and dirty)(those bastards).

  93. magneto says:

    npanciroli:
    magneto,

    Thanks!

    really interesting that he looks ok with a RH partner. Wonder if he can duplicate with Benning or Larsson.

    Only played a little with Larsson and he was 50% GF and 47% CF (186m)
    I would worry about who is moving the puck on that pair, but Russell Benning is probably a likely pair out of camp. Hopefully Benning is ready to play those minutes

  94. godot10 says:

    admiralmark: If the Oilers play Draisaitl all year at 2C what do you think his #’s would look like? I don’t think it would look like an $11 mill/yr player. Loved to be proven wrong though.

    If you wait till Draisaitl proves its conclusively, there is no way you get him for $8.5. If Draisaitl had already proved it conclusively, one wouldn’t have the opportunity to sign him at $8.5. Draisaitl at $8.5 milliion for 8 years is a far better and safer bet than Lucic at 7 x $6 million and Russell at 4 x $4 million, where you are paying for what they did in the past, and are extremely unlikely to do in the
    future.

    Anaheim is the Oilers main foe in the Pacific. Draisaitl is a duck destroyer. Was in the regular season at centre and wing, and was in the playoffs at centre. He is your matchup guy on Getzlaf.

    Draisaitl (fortunately and unfortunately) started to go supernova too soon.

    If I’m a GM, I want McDavid and Draisaitl locked in at $21 million for the foreseeable future, and then my cap management problems because more straightforward. My most important assets become fixed cost assets.

  95. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    LT, you’ve been expending a considerable amount of 1’s and 0’s this offseason projecting the lineup with RNH at 2C

    Barring injuries, no doubt in my mind that TMac breaks camp with Leon as the 2C. Certainly Nuge will be waiting in the wings should Leon fail to swim against the toughs, but you would have to think that the goal initially will be to establish 2 lines that can score against tough comps rather than one that can score and one that can keep its head above water?

    Seems to me like good fodder for a friendly wager, no?; )

    I’m running off what Peter Chiarelli has been saying and what Todd McLellan is doing. Suspect both will occur with great frequency during the season, making a bet moot as we’ll both be correct.

  96. leadfarmer says:

    Jaxon: What about the statistical evidence that he is a drag on the numbers of the best player in the world?. Meaning he is not helping at getting the pick to the right spots for Mc David to get scoring opportunities. That’s a pretty big deal, too, no?

    Well in fairness there is statistical evidence that all mortals are a drag on McDavids numbers

  97. Thinker says:

    Just bridge him. His season is pretty similar to Eberle’s 76pt/78gm campaign, except he played with a better player. He is likely to regress, and should be cheaper a year from now.

  98. admiralmark says:

    godot10: If you wait till Draisaitl proves its conclusively, there is no way you get him for $8.5.If Draisaitl had already proved it conclusively, one wouldn’t have the opportunity to sign him at $8.5.Draisaitl at $8.5 milliion for 8 years is a far better and safer bet than Lucic at 7 x $6 million and Russell at 4 x $4 million, where you are paying for what they did in the past, and are extremely unlikely to do in the
    future.

    Anaheim is the Oilers main foe in the Pacific.Draisaitl is a duck destroyer.Was in the regular season at centre and wing, and was in the playoffs at centre.He is your matchup guy on Getzlaf.

    Draisaitl (fortunately and unfortunately) started to go supernova too soon.

    If I’m a GM, I want McDavid and Draisaitl locked in at $21 million for the foreseeable future, and then my cap management problems because more straightforward.My most important assets become fixed cost assets.

    I mostly agree I just think they have a good argument to get him for less. But at the end of the day if the seasons about to start and the negotiations are ongoing then I wouldn’t haggle over $1 Mill/yr. Until then I would play hardball.

  99. blainer says:

    rickithebear: Nurse is the complete opposite of an efficient Def Dman.
    He skates the puck up allowing opps to spread across N. Zone.
    the d can pressure the blue and for ce him to the perimeter.
    a lot of failed deep entries with minimal success G or A.
    with opposition attacking.
    he can skate back fast but is still usually trailing the opposition forward.
    allowing HD penetration.
    As a result his EVGA60 is historically awful.
    and usually drags his partners results down.

    Nurse:
    w/ Sekera 2.91 EVGA60
    w/ Gryba 1.88
    w/ j. Schultz 2.96
    w/ Benning 2.44
    w/ Clandenning 2.59
    w/ fayne 3.03
    ———————————- less than 150 EVTOI
    w/ Larsson 3.77
    w/ Davidson 4.60

    I really like Nurse and how hard he hits and hope he comes to camp ready to make the next step.

    I really believe the Oil are high on this player but there will be fierce competition when Sekera returns and I do expect us to sign a vet D over the summer or just before camp opens.

    Hoping to see a very steady pairing of Nurse and Larsson by game 20. Expecting Nurse to fall in your favorable Box protection stats by then and also for those two to be Duck and Flame killers !!

  100. pocession charge says:

    Bank Shot:
    Draisaitl- 17% shooting percentage regular season.

    Playoffs-27%

    PP production- 6.83 p/60. Best on the Oilers. 12th in the NHL. Last year he scored 3 p/60.

    These are red flags for me on Draisaitl.

    His shooting percentage is likely to drop.

    Likely his PP production will drop as well. Guys like Crosby and Malkin don’t hit 6.83 every season.
    We already went through this with RNH as the PP witch.

    For these reasons, I think if I were the general manager, I would try to bridge, or take the lowest number of years possible in order to get that cap hit down.

    Draisaitl isn’t likely to repeat this season IMO. If he does, great, pay the man. I’d just like to see it happen again before locking him up into something there will be no getting out of.

    Solid post. A bridge deal if Leon wants more than Tarasenko. I would prefer to lock him up to an eight year deal because I believe in his ability; however, his track record is not established and the Oilers are taking too much risk on an 8+M AAV deal at this point.

  101. classict says:

    godot10: If you wait till Draisaitl proves its conclusively, there is no way you get him for $8.5.If Draisaitl had already proved it conclusively, one wouldn’t have the opportunity to sign him at $8.5.Draisaitl at $8.5 milliion for 8 years is a far better and safer bet than Lucic at 7 x $6 million and Russell at 4 x $4 million, where you are paying for what they did in the past, and are extremely unlikely to do in the
    future.

    Anaheim is the Oilers main foe in the Pacific.Draisaitl is a duck destroyer.Was in the regular season at centre and wing, and was in the playoffs at centre.He is your matchup guy on Getzlaf.

    Draisaitl (fortunately and unfortunately) started to go supernova too soon.

    If I’m a GM, I want McDavid and Draisaitl locked in at $21 million for the foreseeable future, and then my cap management problems because more straightforward.My most important assets become fixed cost assets.

    Did he go supernova or did he shoot 27% which he’ll never sustain over a long period of time. I think Drai will get better, but I also think that he’s likely to regress down to 10-12sh%. So more than likely his scoring will go down not up. It happens all the time with young players. Especially so if he starts to play center full time with lesser line mates.

    You wait because you don’t know he will prove it conclusively. Whether or not you think he should be paid now probably depends on if you think he will repeat this season again. fwiw I don’t think he will score over 80 in the next 2-3 years, so I lean towards offering a bridge.

  102. classict says:

    Bank Shot,

    Ha missed this before I posted, well said.

  103. flea says:

    The issue with bridging Leon is the threat of an offer sheet. LD and his agent are probably already sitting on offer sheets and using them as leverage. I doubt he’d sign a bridge with the Oilers if he could get a 7 year deal elsewhere.

    If you had two options – get paid 2 years at 7.5 million and maybe make more on your next contract if you don’t regress, get hurt, etc or get $64M guarenteed this early in your cereer?

    It’s an easy choice for the player, you take the money. There is some team loyalty at play but I’m sure it goes both ways – if LD is getting the big offers from other teams, he’ll expect them from the Oilers too.

  104. Thinker says:

    If a team is willing to do 3 or 4 firsts for Draisaitl, that probably gives us the flexiblity to replace him.

  105. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LMHF#1: Would it be utterly crazy to suggest that the reason Russell needs to block so many pucks is because he’s a bad defender period and his turnovers/positioning/lack of coverage lead to desperation blocks?
    That would seem to match both eye and numbers.

    If his positioning is so terrible why is he always in the shooting lanes?

  106. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Thinker:
    If a team is willing to do 3 or 4 firsts for Draisaitl, that probably gives us the flexiblity to replace him.

    Yeah why bother with a 21-year-old Top Ten scorer when we can get a few more magic beans?

  107. Ducey says:

    magneto: Only 2 UFA D have signed for 4 or more years, what are the chances someone would have offered Russell 4 years?

    Daley 3×3.166m
    Hunwick 3×2.25m
    Kulikov 3×4.333m

    That would have been Russell’s range

    Don’t think so

    Daley, a lefty, is 33 (soon 34).
    Hunwick is 32, a lefty, and the definition of 3rd pairing
    Kulikov is 26 but only played 43 games last year because of reoccurring back injuries (we know those don’t go away)

    I don’t think anybody would have been happy had Chia brought one of those guys in instead of Russell.

    Russell is 30 and played second pairing, RHD.

  108. Lowetide says:

    Thinker:
    If a team is willing to do 3 or 4 firsts for Draisaitl, that probably gives us the flexiblity to replace him.

    I think the build is over. Time to rise.

  109. Professor Q says:

    Thinker:
    If a team is willing to do 3 or 4 firsts for Draisaitl, that probably gives us the flexiblity to replace him.

    If it’s 2 Firsts, a 2nd, and a 3rd, we should have signed him at that number anyway.

    If it’s 3 Firsts, we shouldn’t have let negotiations go that far anyway ($9.85+). Get him at $8 to $8.75 for 8 years and I do think you’re laughing.

    I honestly believe that he is this generation’s version of German Mats Sundin. I have since he was in the WHL.

  110. Thinker says:

    Lowetide: I think the build is over. Time to rise.

    The teams that can afford the hit are bad. Those are valuable trade chips. You can get Hamonics with that currency.

  111. Professor Q says:

    Thinker: The teams that can afford the hit are bad. Those are valuable trade chips. You can get Hamonics with that currency.

    I really do not want to trade Draisaitl for Hamonic.

  112. digger50 says:

    Comment on Leon’s shooting percentage. I doubt it ever regresses to the mean. Certainly should come down but I doubt he drops below 15%.

    He always looks for the pass, and rarely shoots without purpose. He takes the shot if he has better than reasonable chance, or he makes the pass. Put him with some crappy wingers, likely his shooting percentage will decline, but with skill I think we see it up there 15-18%.

  113. Bruce McCurdy says:

    magneto: Only 2 UFA D have signed for 4 or more years, what are the chances someone would have offered Russell 4 years?

    Daley 3×3.166m
    Hunwick 3×2.25m
    Kulikov 3×4.333m

    That would have been Russell’s range

    Ducey: Don’t think so

    Daley, a lefty, is 33 (soon 34).
    Hunwick is 32, a lefty, and the definition of 3rd pairing
    Kulikov is 26 but only played 43 games last year because of reoccurring back injuries (we know those don’t go away)

    I don’t think anybody would have been happy had Chia brought one of those guys in instead of Russell.

    Russell is 30 and played second pairing, RHD.

    Karl Alzner says hi.

  114. Ducey says:

    Professor Q: If it’s 2 Firsts, a 2nd, and a 3rd, we should have signed him at that number anyway.

    If it’s 3 Firsts, we shouldn’t have let negotiations go that far anyway ($9.85+). Get him at $8 to $8.75 for 8 years and I do think you’re laughing.

    I honestly believe that he is this generation’s version of German Mats Sundin. I have since he was in the WHL.

    If its $9.8+ its 4 first rounders. There is no compensation that provides for 3 first rounders.

    If someone offers more that $9.8 you don’t match and then use the picks to trade for someone else (or a couple of players)..

    I am interested to see what happens with Johanssen. He held out after his ELC and then took a three year bridge deal at a then pretty exorbitant $4 M per. They then traded him a year later. His agent also had Turris who had a contract holdout and got traded. I expect that one could get pretty nasty as Nashville is historically kinda cheap.

    That contract could set the tone for Leon.

  115. Todd Macallan says:

    A poster on that other site who is famous for actually having a legit source in the org (believe he has 100% success rate with predictions, or close to it) just now posted “JJ (smiling emoji).”

    Jokinen or Jagr? I would be very happy with either.

  116. Professor Q says:

    Ducey,

    I meant 4. Sorry for the mix up.

    And the tone really should have already been set by Tarasenko and Kuznetzov et al.

    If Draisaitl gets only a wee bit more than Tarasenko that’s fine, and I think it settles between $7-8.5 maybe.

  117. Chachi says:

    Bruce McCurdy: If his positioning is so terrible why is he always in the shooting lanes?

    He is lucky ALL the time?

  118. Ducey says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Karl Alzner says hi.

    Say hello back. But tell him he is too expensive ($4.65 x 5) and plays the wrong side to be of use in Edmonton.

  119. Professor Q says:

    Todd Macallan:
    A poster on that other site who is famous for actually having a legit source in the org (believe he has 100% success rate with predictions, or close to it) just now posted “JJ (smiling emoji).”

    Jokinen or Jagr? I would be very happy with either.

    Both? Khaira? Joensuu?

  120. Ducey says:

    Todd Macallan:
    A poster on that other site who is famous for actually having a legit source in the org (believe he has 100% success rate with predictions, or close to it) just now posted “JJ (smiling emoji).”

    Jokinen or Jagr? I would be very happy with either.

    or Jyrki Jokipakka. Still happy?

  121. Todd Macallan says:

    Ducey,

    I’ll raise you Jack Johnson. Or maybe JJ Hebert got a promotion.

  122. Lowetide says:

    Thinker: The teams that can afford the hit are bad. Those are valuable trade chips. You can get Hamonics with that currency.

    I choose Draisaitl.

  123. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: I choose Draisaitl.

    Ah, so this is what you mean by always keeping your powder Drai, eh?

  124. Gross misconduct says:

    Their wont b an offer sheet. No team wants to give up 4 1st round picks. And it’s just going to allienate you with other GMs. Not to mention even if their was an offer sheet coming …the Oilers can match ANYTHING that could realistically b offered. That said in RE. to the supporting cast that is/will b built around Mcdavid , Draisatl. ..dont go falling in love with veteran wingers that play with Mcdavid and score 25+ goals. There are a number of NHL vets that would pot 25+ with Connor. Expect a bit of a revolving door outside of home grown ( drafted) wingers

  125. Gross misconduct says:

    Two words for anyone expecting big name roster moves: Trade deadline

  126. Thinker says:

    Lowetide: I choose Draisaitl.

    Even at 9 million? What if he is a 9 million 60 pt center? Three firsts and 9 million go a long way.

  127. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ducey: Say hello back. But tell him he is too expensive ($4.65 x 5) and plays the wrong side to be of use in Edmonton.

    Besides, Oilers already have Kris Russell for a shorter term AND lower cap hit. Seems like a bargain now, huh? 🙂

  128. Lowetide says:

    Thinker: Even at 9 million? What if he is a 9 million 60 pt center? Three firsts and 9 million go a long way.

    You can’t trade first-round picks in October and get value. Match, run the year with Leon at $9 million and trade Draisaitl next summer for value then. May still be only picks, but at least you have free agency and $9 million to spend straight ahead. Winning this coming season is a big deal, need Leon help do it.

  129. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Todd Macallan:
    A poster on that other site who is famous for actually having a legit source in the org (believe he has 100% success rate with predictions, or close to it) just now posted “JJ (smiling emoji).”

    Jokinen or Jagr? I would be very happy with either.

    Jujhar Khaira?

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gross misconduct:
    Two words for anyone expecting big name roster moves: Trade deadline

    It looks like the team will have a ton of cap space at the deadline (even without Sekera LTIR room) but the problem is the success of the next few years requires a steady stream of young ELC or cheap 2nd contract players to replace the top 6 forwards that we cannot afford to pay any more.

    There is no room for raises for the likes of Maroon – next year he will need to be replaced by another $2M or under player, rinse and repeat.

    How are we to keep this value contract stream flowing if we are renting at the deadline?

    Its an honest question.

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: It looks like the team will have a ton of cap space at the deadline (even without Sekera LTIR room) but the problem is the success of the next few years requires a steady stream of young ELC or cheap 2nd contract players to replace the top 6 forwards that we cannot afford to pay any more.

    There is no room for raises for the likes of Maroon – next year he will need to be replaced by another $2M or under player, rinse and repeat.

    How are we to keep this value contract stream flowing if we are renting at the deadline?

    Its an honest question.

    I don’t think there will be any cap relief from Sekera. It only allows a team at the cap to deduct the amount they are over the cap from his salary. So it’s a choice between one D or F. Given the youth up front I expect a forward, the D corp will be the same as last season.

    The Oilers are at the point where the roster moving forward is mostly set. We could see players coming that are available for later round picks, firsts and seconds are the most important.

    Edit: trades for low picks at the deadline

  132. Ari says:

    Todd Macallan,

    Which site?

  133. McNuge93 says:

    Lowetide: You can’t trade first-round picks in October and get value. Match, run the year with Leon at $9 million and trade Draisaitl next summer forvalue then. May still be only picks, but at least you have free agency and $9 million to spend straight ahead. Winning this coming season is a big deal, need Leon help do it.

    Yes 3 first Round picks isn’t what we need. They may not turn out to be much. We traded gretz for I think 3 first rounders and seem to recall we really didnt get equivalent value back. You are right, we are in win soon mode, not rebuild 4.0 mode

  134. N64 says:

    Gross misconduct: Their wont b an offer sheet. No team wants to give up 4 1st round picks. And it’s just going to allienate you with other GMs. Not to mention even if their was an offer sheet coming …the Oilers can match ANYTHING that could realistically b offered.

    OK GM. I’ve got an offer sheet for 7.8M for 1 year. Whether I sign it or not depends on your next move.

    If I sign it I’ll be an RFA again in a year and I’ll make sure the price for a deal is much much higher wherever I play.

    If you don’t match you get a 1st and chump change (2nd and 3rd). Apropos if you prefer to change chumps.

    Now about that extra .75M Connor left on the table for a long term deal with me?

    Do I sign the OS? Your call.

  135. classict says:

    N64: OK GM. I’ve got an offer sheet for 7.8M for 1 year. Whether I sign it or not depends on your next move.

    If I sign it I’ll be an RFA again in a year and I’ll make sure the price for a deal is much much higher wherever I play.

    If you don’t match you get a 1st and chump change (2nd and 3rd). Apropos if you prefer to change chumps.

    Now about that extra .75M Connor left on the table for a long term deal with me?

    Do I sign the OS? Your call.

    That was his point. The Oilers would obviously just match that offer sheet. That potentially works out better if the Oilers want another year to prove worth. And to prove he can play C without Connor. It’s perfect for them.

    I’d say in that situation it’s unlikely he does anything next year that makes the next deal much much higher. Some of the reported asks are conceivably as high as he should be getting if he repeated last years performance again for the next 3 years.

  136. N64 says:

    classict: The Oilers would obviously just match that offer sheet.

    If it was a signed offer sheet of course they match it. Only one first so suicide not to.

    But I have not signed it yet. Actually I left you a choice. Challenge me to sign it or come to terms for say 8.5M over 8. Connor tells me he left .75M for that.

    Go ahead. Challenge me to turn my small samples into large samples. If 7.8 buys a year and you won’t give 8.5 for 8, then next year it’s 9 for a year and 8 digits for 8 years.

    Here’s the knife. It’s your nose.

  137. Jaxon says:

    magneto: Only 2 UFA D have signed for 4 or more years, what are the chances someone would have offered Russell 4 years?

    Daley 3×3.166m
    Hunwick 3×2.25m
    Kulikov 3×4.333m

    That would have been Russell’s range

    Of all the UFA D, Russell got the 2nd longest deal, 4th highest salary, 1st most restrictive NMC.
    If he wanted to play in Edmonton, Chiarelli didn’t have to give him all of that. He wouldn’t have been the top D on the market.

    Clauses:
    Trevor Daley 3yr @$3.166M, no clauses.
    Matt Hunwick 3yr @$2.25M, no clauses.
    Dmitry Kulikov 3yr @4.333M, has a modified NTC on day 1, no trade list of 6 teams, meaning the GM can deal with 24 teams!

    I would add:
    Ron Hainsey 2yr @$3M , 16 team Mod. NTC. for both years.
    Matt Hunwick 3yrs @$2.25M, no clauses.
    Kyle Quincey 1yr @$1.25M, no clauses
    Michael Del Zotto 2yrs @$3M, no clauses

    Yup, and the two that signed for 4 or more didn’t have a restrictive full NMC in their first 2 years.

    Shattenkirk 4 years @ 6.65M with – has a NMC for 2017-2018, but on July 1st, 2018 he submits a 10 team no trade list meaning there’ll be 20 options for the GM to trade him to.

    Alzner 5 years @ 4.625M – has a modified NTC for the entirety of his contract that he only submits 8 no trade team list, meaning there’ll be 22 options for the GM to trade him to. He could even trade him today.

    Plus, Markov, Beauchemin, Wideman, Oduya, Campbell, Franson, and Strait are all still available. And they may very well take a 1 or 2 year deal without full NTC or NMC from day one at less than $4M

    There are almost always free agent D still looking for a job in September. There is no need to rush. Last season…..hmmmm… I can’t remember who it was… oh right, it was Russell who still wasn’t signed until OCTOBER 7th!

    In 2016 James Wisniewski, Kyle Qincey, Dennis Seidenberg were all still unsigned on Sept. 26th.
    The year before, in 2015, Cody Franson wasn’t signed until September 10th. Marek Zidlicky and David Schlemko weren’t signed until after training camps started either.
    In 2014, Michael Del Zotto wasn’t signed until Aug 14.

    EDIT:
    Alex Emelin only cost a 3rd round pick for his last year @ $4.1M and a 10 team no trade list, can be dealt to 20 teams.
    David Schlemko only cost a 5th round pick for 3 years @$2.1M an no clauses.
    Trevor Van Riemsdyk came with a 7th round pick and cost a 2nd round pick for 1 yr @ 825k and no clauses.

  138. seanjohn667 says:

    can Lucic, Nuge, and Slep score 50? not with Nuge as the C. He’s just not good enough.

  139. Ryan says:

    magneto: Only 2 UFA D have signed for 4 or more years, what are the chances someone would have offered Russell 4 years?

    Daley 3×3.166m
    Hunwick 3×2.25m
    Kulikov 3×4.333m

    That would have been Russell’s range

    No doubt that Chiarelli signed Russell to a terrible contract.

    Chiarelli will look foolish for signing this deal possibly as soon as next season.

  140. Chris says:

    I don’t think there is any reason to panic with regards to the cap next season. Presuming a 77 million dollar cap, we have $24 million in cap space. Assuming we sign Leon for 7.5 we have $16.5 million in cap space which should be sufficient to give Maroon 4.5 to 5, Letestu 2, Benning and Nurse up to 3 million each and resign other RFAs. Admittedly they will be tight to the cap but it doesn’t appear there is reason to panic.

    That Lucic contract just looks horrible every time I see it sitting on any graph showing the Oilers cap though.

  141. Jaxon says:

    Chris:
    I don’t thinkthere is any reason to panic with regards to the cap next season. Presuming a 77 million dollar cap, we have $24 million in cap space. Assuming we sign Leon for 7.5 we have $16.5 million in cap space which should be sufficient to give Maroon 4.5 to 5, Letestu 2, Benning and Nurse up to 3 million each and resign other RFAs. Admittedly they will be tight to the cap but it doesn’t appear there is reason to panic.

    That Lucic contract just looks horrible every time I see it sitting on any graph showing the Oilers cap though.

    Here is a CapFriendly Amrchair GM team using some of Lowetide’s numbers and some of my own. I have Draisaitl at $8.5M. The extra million won’t actually change that much. you could trade Nugent-Hopkins for picks and prospects instead of players like Gudas, Gudbranson, Gallagher or Jenner, and then you could sign Maroon, but I think a return like that makes more sense for the team than keeping Maroon. Plus, I’m betting Maroon signs with St Louis on the cheap next contract.

    https://capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/408208

    To get under cap, I had to trade Nuge and let Nurse go. Maroon, Letestu, Fayne were not re-signed. The I filled the roster with ELCs and AHL players. 12 players with under 1 season of experience (today) and only $10,000 cap space left.

  142. Gross misconduct says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    3.5 $ for Maroon as long as he looks like he’s going to continue to click with Mcdavid…or whoever might b reasonable. If the term is reasonable. Its not just going to b Mcdavid, Leon, 4 mil dollar dmen , Elc players and a bunch of guys making 1 mil.

  143. Gross misconduct says:

    Jaxon</s
    Jaxon,

    To quote the banker in that tv ad for a financial company after the woman runs through her fees for service charges ” Well im not sure that math makes any sense “

  144. Jaxon says:

    Gross misconduct,

    You can say $3.5M for Maroon, but if you look at players who are getting a contract after scoring 27 goals, they usually get in the $5M – $5.5M range. Maroon’s going to get paid. And he may take less to go home to St Louis where his kid lives. It’s not like St Louis won’t be a contender, especially if they add Maroon on a discount. They still have great D with Pietrbngelo, Bouwmeester, Parayko and Gunnarsson. They have a solid core forward group with Tarasenko, Stastny, Schwartz, Steen, Berglund, Schenn, Sobotka, etc.

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