MADMAN ACROSS THE WATER

Since Peter Chiarelli arrived the Edmonton Oilers have shifted focus at the draft table. Whereas the club would spend plenty of picks in Sweden, the QMJHL and BCHL during previous regimes, Chiarelli and Bob Green have settled in on the OHL-WHL-USHL axis and are having success. Here, let me show you.

OILERS DRAFT TRENDS 2008-14

  1. WHL: 15 players (27 %) including Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl
  2. USA: 8 players (14.5 %) including Pitlick, Simpson, Nagelvoort
  3. OHL: 7 players (12.7 %) including Hall, Yakupov, Nurse
  4. Sweden: 6 players (10.9 %) including Paajarvi, Lander, Klefbom, Lagesson
  5. QMJHL: 5 players (9 %) including Marco Roy and Keven Bouchard
  6. BCJHL: 5 players (9 %) including Bigos, Khaira and Coughlin
  7. Finland: 4 players (7 %) including Hartikainen and Rajala
  8. Russia: 2 players (3.6 %) Bogdan Yakimov, Anton Slepyshev
  9. Slovakia: 2 players (3.6 %) Martin Marincin and Martin Gernat
  10. Belarus: 1 player (1.8 %) Kristians Pelss

A few notes:

  • The NHL as a whole (including Edmonton) drafted out of the WHL at about 17%. The Oilers loved the dub in a big way, using a quarter of their total picks on players from the league.
  • The NHL drafted out of USA leagues and colleges at 24%, meaning Edmonton was underusing this area compared to the rest of the NHL.
  • The NHL used the OHL at 20% and it’s the best junior league in the world. Edmonton drafted at 12.7 percent in these years. You’d really have to work to convince me that it’s wise to under draft out of the Ontario league. Seriously.

OILERS DRAFT TRENDS 2015-17

  1. USA (27 %)—Caleb Jones, John Marino, Graham McPhee, Vincent Desharnais, Skyler Brind’Amour, Phillip Kemp
  2. OHL (23 %)—Connor McDavid, Markus Niemelainen, Dylan Wells, Dmitri Samorukov, Kirill Maksimov
  3. WHL (18 %)—Ethan Bear, Tyler Benson, Kailer Yamamoto, Stuart Skinner
  4. Finland (9 %)—Jesse Puljujarvu, Aapeli Rasanen
  5. Czech (9 %)—Miroslav Svoboda, Ostap Safin
  6. Russia (5 %)—Ziyat Paigin
  7. OJHL (5 %)—Matthew Cairns
  8. Sweden (5 %)—Filip Berglund
  • The OHL spike is very encouraging. As mentioned above, the previous regimes drafted 12.7 percent out of the OHL, while the NHL was grabbing players at a 20 percent clip out of Ontatio. That’s nuts.
  • Edmonton is drafting at 23 percent from the OHL, while the league is at 18.9 percent in those three years.
  • Taking Edmonton’s five selections (of 22) out of the equation, the other 30 teams are investing in the OHL at 18.8 percent.
  • I’ll bet you money overdrafting the OHL is an efficient draft strategy.
  • QMJHL and BCHL have yet to get on the books and Sweden has been reduced to an outpost (although much of this is surely luck of the draw). The USHL gets the most love, six out of 22 total picks, but none of them are early picks (Jones is the earliest, fourth round).
  • The first-round picks have been equally doled out to the OHL, Sm-Liiga and WHL. If the team picks a Swede from the SHL first round next year, that’s probably balance (again, luck has a lot to do with it).
  • A final item: Oilers did shop in obscure spots like Belarus and Slovakia, for three total selections 2008-14. Looks like those selections are going to the USA now.

DMITRI SAMORUKOV

  • Corey Pronman: Samorukov is mobile, particularly at 6-foot-2, and is more than capable at jumping up into the attack. His skill level isn’t elite, but he’s a smart puck-mover who can make creative plays. On defense, he’s not afraid to get involved in the physical play and can win battles. His game started to show more pace as he got used to the smaller North American rinks, and while his decisions weren’t perfect, I see solid hockey IQ in his game. Source
  • ISS: Two-way defenceman who possesses a very good skill-set and skating ability.
  • Black Book: Dmitri has good size on the back end and plays an offensively minded game. He likes to rush the puck up ice whenever possible and his skating is ok. He often made the smart pass but would sometimes get caught trying to force a play that wasn’t there. This improved as the season went on. Dmitri is a good puck mover in the offensive zone but is very aggressive when trying to hold the line.

OSTAP SAFIN

  • Corey Pronman: I see qualities there that are desirable, but I’m slightly lower on him than the industry. On the plus side, there are good athletic qualities to his game. At 6-foot-5, he has very good feet for a big man, with an easy first few steps. He handles the puck fine, can make the occasional creative play or distribution, possesses an accurate wrist shot and is able to finish chances well. However, he’s not going to be a primary playmaker on his line as a pro. His physical play is inconsistent. Source
  • ISS: Big bodied, puck protecting winger with strong offensive skill-set and instincts.
  • Black Book: Ostap is a huge winger with good puck protection ability. He has a very heavy, powerful shot and a devastating one-timer. He has very good skill level for a player of his size. He is a decent skater for his size and can provide a good forecheck.

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51 Responses to "MADMAN ACROSS THE WATER"

  1. Ryan says:

    9% from the BCJHL?

    What percent did the rest of the NHL draft from the BCJHL?

  2. Halfwise says:

    Ryan:
    9% from the BCJHL?

    What percent did the rest of the NHL draft from the BCJHL?

    Totally missed Josh Manson.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Ryan:
    9% from the BCJHL?

    What percent did the rest of the NHL draft from the BCJHL?

    34 total players in those years (2008-14) out of a total of 1,475 players. The NHL as a whole drafted BCHL players at a 2.3 percent rate. If you take Edmonton out (five of 55), the NHL drafted at a 2.05 percent rate. Edmonton? 9.1 percent.

  4. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Halfwise: Totally missed Josh Manson.

    And everyone missed Parayko. You shouldn’t draft for outliers. I wonder how Manson would be top pair without Lindholm? I think he’s good but getting zoomed, and he has no offense. He’s Nurse on the right side, but Nurse will pass him because Manson will be 27 next season.

    The Oilers have quality, we have to remember that the other team’s prospects aren’t perfect either.

  5. Clay says:

    Not to nitpick (I’m totally nitpicking), but you have McDavid in both the before and after sets of players. 🙂

    Seeing Pelss’ name still tugs at the emotions. Such a tragedy.

  6. ashley says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    The Oilers have quality, we have to remember that the other team’s prospects aren’t perfect either.

    Yes, the Flames have Jankowski. That was 5 years ago now (Whew!). At the age of 23-24, he must be turning from prospect to suspect. Feaster was laughing out loud after the pick and during the interview. He thought they really stole the draft that year.

  7. ashley says:

    Then again, the OIlers thought they killed it when they picked Troy Hesketh. Outside of CMD selection, modesty is probably best served on draft day.

  8. Pescador says:

    ashley:
    Then again, the OIlers thought they killed it when they picked Troy Hesketh.Outside of CMD selection, modesty is probably best served on draft day.

    BAAH,
    If I’m not the smartest person in the room, then why am I here?

  9. jp says:

    ashley:
    Then again, the OIlers thought they killed it when they picked Troy Hesketh.Outside of CMD selection, modesty is probably best served on draft day.

    At least Hesketh was 3rd rounder rather than a 1st.

  10. jtblack says:

    ashley,

    “modesty is probably best served on draft day.” …. Yes, agreed. Every player drafted is compared to so and so ….. and the numbers tell us only a small % will ever be impactful at the NHL level … .Just getting a regular player after the 2nd Round is a huge victory ….

    These things take time until we know how the drafting went exactly … I hope they continue keeping their draft picks and developing them … The way the game is going it is critically to get cheap quality players in the lineup …..

    Draisatl over Bennett looks like a good choice now … Exciting to see how Benson, yamamoto, Bear, Jones all work out in the next 2 – 3 years …

  11. slopitch says:

    I think the most value lies in Sweden. I have no stats to back it up it’s just a hunch. Glad to see the Oilers mining in the ushl and ohl more. I have a buddy to catches the hlinka, whc and juniors every year, he’s got a sweet job that allows him too. Says he often goes for beers with the Oilers head ohl scout. I’m a hockey nerd, love the draft. One of these days I need to go on one of these trips. Would love to know the thought process of the guys who actually have input.

  12. Pescador says:

    2017 Oilers drafted:
    Killer Yakuza motor, Ol’strap Safe in, Die meat Samurai & Kills Maximum off, plus some other guys.
    How can we go wrong?

  13. JDî says:

    Pescador: Killer Yakuza motor

    Let’s hope he’s not Kail Yamupov.

  14. --hudson-- says:

    Just because I should be studying, I did some procrastination with our Pacific Division rivals from 2015-17.

                   Edmonton    Anaheim    Calgary   San Jose    Vancouver
    USA            27%              28%           16%          40%          19%
    OHL            23%              11%            37%         10%          33%
    WHL           18%              28%            21%          10%          19%
    Finland         9%                 6%            5%             0%            0%
    Czech           9%                0%            0%             0%            5%
    Russia          5%                 0%            0%            5%            5%
    OJHL            5%                0%             0%            0%            0%
    Sweden        5%               11%          16%            5%          10%
    QMJHL         0%               17%            5%           20%         10%
    Norway         0%                 0%            0%            5%            0%
    BCJHL          0%                 0%            0%            5%            0%

    Anaheim still likes the WHL over the OHL. They still shop in the Q. Everything else is similar.

    Calgary likes the OHL even more than the Oilers, the USA less and Sweden more.

    San Jose takes 40% of their picks from USA and 20% from the Q!

    Vancouver also likes the OHL and the Q more than the Oilers, draft from the USA less.

    Very interesting way to look at things LT!

  15. Pescador says:

    JDî: Let’s hope he’s not Kail Yamupov.

    Beware of Kailer Bees

  16. JDî says:

    Great segment by Wenge Guy yesterday on Bob’s show.

    http://globalnews.ca/pages/audioondemand/

    Select July 7, and 1 pm (fast forward a bit through Bob reading texts, unless… well…).

  17. JDî says:

    Pescador: Beware of Kailer Bees

    Dammit – we need a ❤ button!

  18. Ice Sage says:

    I’m not bothered by a WHL / AJHL-BCHL bias in the drafting. Knowing that these young prospects can perform while managing the rigours Of Northwestern life and travel reduces some risk.

  19. Pescador says:

    JDî:
    Great segment by Wenge Guy yesterday on Bob’s show.

    http://globalnews.ca/pages/audioondemand/

    Select July 7, and 1 pm (fast forward a bit through Bob reading texts, unless… well…).

    Agreed!
    Nowadays it’s getting harder & harder to find good Wood.
    2 favourite parts of that hit is when Bob calls himself “fat Elvis” & Darcy cops to enjoying a Pre-segment-holiday Beer or two.
    Fantastic stuff!

  20. Pescador says:

    JDî: Dammit – we need a button!

    Right back at ya,
    Ya big lug

  21. Pescador says:

    Watching old Bond, “Man with the golden gun”
    Roger Moore is & was The best Bond.
    I’ll have words with any man that says otherwise!
    Plus I loved Thailand, can’t wait to go back.
    Someday

  22. Lowetide says:

    Pescador:
    Watching old Bond, “Man with the golden gun”
    Roger Moore is & was The best Bond.
    I’ll have words with any man that says otherwise!
    Plus I loved Thailand, can’t wait to go back.
    Someday

    Moore is king for sure.

  23. dustrock says:

    –hudson–:
    Just because I should be studying, I did some procrastination with our Pacific Division rivals from 2015-17.

    Edmonton Anaheim Calgary San Jose Vancouver
    USA 27% 28% 16% 40% 19%
    OHL 23% 11% 37% 10% 33%
    WHL 18% 28% 21% 10% 19%
    Finland 9% 6% 5% 0% 0%
    Czech 9% 0% 0% 0% 5%
    Russia 5% 0% 0% 5% 5%
    OJHL 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
    Sweden 5% 11% 16% 5% 10%
    QMJHL 0% 17% 5% 20% 10%
    Norway 0% 0% 0% 5% 0%
    BCJHL 0% 0% 0% 5% 0%

    Anaheim still likes the WHL over the OHL.They still shop in the Q.Everything else is similar.

    Calgary likes the OHL even more than the Oilers, the USA less and Sweden more.

    San Jose takes 40% of their picks from USA and 20% from the Q!

    Vancouver also likes the OHL and the Q more than the Oilers, draft from the USA less.

    Very interesting way to look at things LT!

    Good stuff Hudson. And you wonder how much is just based on location/bias of the people they happen to hire as scouts. Does San Jose happen to find more unlooked-for value in the Q, or do they just have a scout who has a background there?

    Fascinating stuff.

  24. dustrock says:

    Pescador:
    Watching old Bond, “Man with the golden gun”
    Roger Moore is & was The best Bond.
    I’ll have words with any man that says otherwise!
    Plus I loved Thailand, can’t wait to go back.
    Someday

    Moore was great but he didn’t have the darkness of Connery. Still think Connery foreshadowed Daniel Craig in a way. Moore was smooth in a way that Brosnan tried to replicate but Connery had the callousness towards coworkers, women, and opponents that was fascinating to me.

  25. dustrock says:

    Lowetide: Moore is king for sure.

    Part of the problem is the quality of film. Need to separate them out.

  26. JDî says:

    ALL YOU BARRY NELSON HATERS CAN GO FARK YERSELF!

  27. JDî says:

    AND DON’T GET ME STARTED ON TIMOTHY DALTON!

  28. Gerta Rauss says:

    dustrock: Moore was great but he didn’t have the darkness of Connery. Still think Connery foreshadowed Daniel Craig in a way. Moore was smooth in a way that Brosnan tried to replicate but Connery had the callousness towards coworkers, women, and opponents that was fascinating to me.

    Agreed-I’m in the Connery camp for sure

    I liked Moore in Live and Let Die and Golden Gun but the first 5 with Connery are my faves

    I watched Never say Never Again the other night for the first time(I had seen pieces of it over the years, but never watched it from start to finish)

    It was awful, just terrible

  29. Pescador says:

    dustrock: Part of the problem is the quality of film. Need to separate them out.

    Craig has had the benefit of quality cinematics & expert writers, digital stunt guy stuff.
    But no one delivered Innuendo like Moore, that’s why he is the King.
    Thank you for this forum Lowetide, you are the 007 of bloggers!

  30. digger50 says:

    Pescador: Craig has had the benefit of quality cinematics & expert writers, digital stunt guy stuff.
    But no one delivered Innuendo like Moore, that’s why he is the King.
    Thank you for this forum Lowetide, you are the 007 of bloggers!

    I have never, ever heard anyone proclaim Moore as the best bond over Sean Connery. Sacraligious.

  31. prairieschooner says:

    Best Bond
    in best fight scene on a train
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmTs5bF0-mQ

  32. dustrock says:

    I’ll go on record saying Dalton gets a bad rap.

    The Living Daylights is one of the very best for me.

  33. Pescador says:

    prairieschooner:
    Best Bond
    in best fight scene on a train
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmTs5bF0-mQ

    No one is disrespecting Connery, he is the original.
    But Moore fights a this villain, & then makes a great move on the beauty all in the same breath. The video doesn’t show it but trust me he scores more then just the take down.
    https://youtu.be/CogCFACcNPc

  34. Wonder Llama says:

    Between Foo Fighters and Roger Moore I’m starting to lose a little faith.

    Connery > Craig > Brosnan > Lazenby > Dalton > Moore

    These things should be obvious.

    Best Bond theme song, now that could be a good debate!

  35. digger50 says:

    Pescador,

    When all the opening Bond scenes were going over the top, and there seemed no way to one up the previous movie. Craig took us back to a good old foot race. What a scene that was. Can’t even remember the title. Casino Royale? What a chase scene.

  36. Gret99zky says:

    Best Bond…

    Me!

    When I played GoldenEye 007 on the Nintendo 64 back in 97.

    Loved that game.

  37. pocession charge says:

    Wonder Llama:
    Between Foo Fighters and Roger Moore I’m starting to lose a little faith.

    Connery > Craig > Brosnan > Lazenby > Dalton > Moore

    These things should be obvious.

    Best Bond theme song, now that could be a good debate!

    1. ‘Goldfinger’ – Shirley Bassey
    2. ‘Skyfall’ – Adele

    These two women are my favorite Bond singers.

  38. 106 and 106 says:

    Leagues with no salary cap are insane. I don’t even know this guy (is that bad?):

    Harden signed a four-year, “supermax” extension Saturday, a whopper of a deal that guarantees Harden about $228 million over the next six seasons and makes it the richest contract in league history.

    Isn’t “supermax” a Lotto 6/49 thing?

  39. Revolved says:

    As the first, Connery defined who James Bond is, but like many older films the acting is delivered for the stage. Moore delivered the heart of the Bond library and brought the character to modern cinema. The greatest thing about these films is how they have evolved with the times.

  40. Johnny Stomper says:

    Still on the Bond theme and looking at the lead roles for women. The scene when Halle Berry comes out of ocean ranks as one of the hottest scenes. Damn. Whose your favorite lead lady in the Bond movies?

  41. Johnny Stomper says:

    Bond theme songs. I liked the one with Jack White and Alicia Keys. Great intro to that song. All over the Foo Fighters. I was so lucky to see them at the Glastonbury festival recently. Check out the BBC footage if you can. Dave Grohl was on fire and the crowd was electric. What an entertainer, he knows how to rock and Taylor Hawkins is a kick ass drummer.

  42. Johnny Stomper says:

    Sorry for the side bar.

    Go Oilers!!!

  43. doritogrande says:

    I’ve watched all the Bond films too many times to keep track and have come to the conclusion that your favourite Bond is most likely your first. Brosnan ranks #1 for me (Goldeneye my first movie), followed closely by Craig and Connery. Roger Moore was the victim of too much camp and was way too old by the 3rd movie to be much of a ladies man like Connery was. You people alive watching movies in the 70s clearly liked comedy more than action. Dalton is criminally underrated, his two movies rank among my best. Lazenby was….not the man for the job, but probably had to be the best actor of the bunch given his story line.

    As far as theme songs go, the best is by far Casino Royale. RIP Chris Cornell. Best Bond girl is Eva Green (Casino Royale), and will always be until they give Emma Stone the role. Anyone got a best Bond villain? I’m going with Silva from Skyfall.

  44. Professor Q says:

    106 and 106:
    Leagues with no salary cap are insane. I don’t even know this guy (is that bad?):

    Harden signed a four-year, “supermax” extension Saturday, a whopper of a deal that guarantees Harden about $228 million over the next six seasons and makes it the richest contract in league history.

    Isn’t “supermax” a Lotto 6/49 thing?

    Except the NBA does have a salary cap of $99 million.

  45. Professor Q says:

    Pescador:
    Watching old Bond, “Man with the golden gun”
    Roger Moore is & was The best Bond.
    I’ll have words with any man that says otherwise!
    Plus I loved Thailand, can’t wait to go back.
    Someday

    I say otherwise. 😉

    Maybe it’s because I’m young, but Brosnan is my favourite. I’ve watched the older ones as well.

    For some reason I could never get into Daniel Craig as much as most.

  46. Lowetide says:

    Barbara Bach and Carly Simon’s Nobody Does it Better.

  47. stephen sheps says:

    Pescador:
    Watching old Bond, “Man with the golden gun”
    Roger Moore is & was The best Bond.
    I’ll have words with any man that says otherwise!
    Plus I loved Thailand, can’t wait to go back.
    Someday

    I respect your perspective but I can’t possibly agree. Moore had 1 excellent turn as bond (The Spy who Loved Me), but otherwise his performances were as spotty as the films themselves. And I say this as a diehard Bind fan. Moonraker, Octopussy and a View to a Kill are almost unwatchable, even in an ironic, nostalgic way while the other 3 are ok at best. I’d rather watch live and let die than say, diamonds are forever, but that’s not exactly high praise…

    For me it is Connery, Craig, Dalton, Moore, Brosnan and Lazenby bringing up the rear.

    However if we’re going to get into the best bond films, my top 5 are from Russia with Love, Casino Royale, OHMSS, Skyfall and Goldfinger

    Dalton gets crapped on I think because of the era, but rewatch his performances in the living daylights and license to kill and tell me you can’t see shades of what Craig would become.

    Brosnan had one spectacular turn in Goldfinger (the first I saw in the theatre – haven’t missed one since) but the rest were as bad as the worst of the Moore movies, all hammy acting, quips and gadgets cloaking undercooked scripts and terrible plot structures.

    Lazenby was just ok as Bond, but OHMSS is still the best actual movie of the classic era, with the best cast, the most complete Bond girl (Diana Rigg – not the best, as DG correctly states that’s Eva Green – but the most complete), actual character development and also the most true to the source material. Unfortunately for Lazenby, he happened to follow up Connery in the role, which basically put him into an impossible situation. Had Connery played Bond over lazenby, without a doubt it would be the best of them all.

  48. McNuge93 says:

    Lowetide:
    Barbara Bach and Carly Simon’s Nobody Does it Better.

    Boy we sure need a trade or free agent signing. I think everyone is getting bored. BTW Moore is the best.

  49. OilSafety says:

    My vote goes to Craig for sheer gritensity😉

    The real question is who should be the next bond?

  50. Gerta Rauss says:

    I had to drop by this morning to mention Luciana Paluzzi in Thunderball…that red hair…

    you’ve made a shocking mess of my hair, you sadistic brute..

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    106 and 106:
    Leagues with no salary cap are insane. I don’t even know this guy (is that bad?):

    Harden signed a four-year, “supermax” extension Saturday, a whopper of a deal that guarantees Harden about $228 million over the next six seasons and makes it the richest contract in league history.

    Isn’t “supermax” a Lotto 6/49 thing?

    Well he was a finalist for the MVP this year so, if you don’t know him, you don’t really follow that MVP at even a casual level I would guess.

    While the NBA does actually have a cap, the salary economics of the NBA are different than the NHL.

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