THE SECOND ROUND (2017 UPDATE)

If the Oilers had drafted even close to average in the second round over the last decade, some of the management and coaching staff of the past might still be here. The new regime has had only one pick since arrival, meaning the picks have been traded away in two of the last three drafts.  (Photo by Rob Ferguson).

  • 2008: No second-round selections (Kevin Lowe) (MacGregor)
  • 2009: Anton Lander (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Tyler Pitlick (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Martin Marincin (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Curtis Hamilton (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2011: David Musil (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2012: Mitchell Moroz (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2013: Marco Roy (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
  • 2014: No second round selection (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
  • 2015: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Tyler Benson (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2017: No second-round selections (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)

I’m hopeful we can have a rational conversation about the Edmonton Oilers in the second round 2008-17. No grand statements on either side, no claims, just an honest assessment of the way things are, the good and bad arrows, and a discussion in regard to useful players coming out of this area of the draft. In order to do this, we absolutely have to agree on some things:

  • We can’t judge a draft weeks after it happens.
  • We can count arrows, and they are a good indicator.
  • We cannot expect all of the picks to succeed, that isn’t reasonable.
  • We have finaly reached a conclusion about a line in the sand for success.
  • The Oilers can’t keep trading second-round picks.

2017 SUMMER (CAREER NHL GP)

  1. Anton Lander 215
  2. Martin Marincin 175
  3. Tyler Pitlick 58
  4. David Musil 4
  5. Curtis Hamilton 1

Scott Cullen’s method judges both Lander and Marincin as being second-round successes (100 NHL games) and Pitlick appears to be heading in that general direction. Three NHL players in a 10-year period (2008-17) is solid production on the surface, however all three players were lost in the flood of change, bad luck and inconsistency. I knew that damned 2010 draft had some players in it.

ARROWS

  • “It’s over” arrows: Curtis Hamilton, Marco Roy, Mitch Moroz, David Musil
  • Bad arrows:
  • Lukewarm arrows: Tyler Benson
  • Good arrows: Tyler Pitlick
  • Successful selections: Anton Lander, Martin Marincin

I’ve moved both Moroz and Musil to the ‘it’s over’ category, both men are currently looking for contracts with NHL teams so we may have to revise next summer. Tyler Benson is in the ‘lukewarm’ column due to injury concerns. Tyler Pitlick spent a lot of time there due to injuries, but moves up to a good arrow with a season that saw real success (and his exit). I count Anton Lander and Martin Marincin as draft successes (your mileage may vary) considering the spot they were chosen and the NHL games-played total. Last year’s look is here.

ONE BY ONE

  • C Anton Lander: He signed in the KHL (officially this week) and we may or may not see him again in the NHL (he is 26). Lander played more than 50 NHL games in only two seasons, his rookie year with Tom Renney and 2015-16 with Todd McLellan.
  • R Tyler Pitlick: Following Pitlick’s career in the organization was an exercise in frustration, but nothing compared to what the player must have gone through. Many injuries, stops and starts, building to a crescendo with a strong start to the NHL season in 2016-17. His injury conspired to  make him a free agent, we wish him all success.
  • D Martin Marincin: He is an NHL player, I swear. Played in just 25 games with Toronto this past season, he lost over a month to injury but was healthy scratched with dogged determination by Mike Babcock. As with Lander, “success” in our study holds a different definition than success as in becoming an NHL regular.
  • L Curtis Hamilton: Played well in the Sm-Liiga for Saipa, was loaned out for two games at the end of the season.
  • D David Musil: The Oilers loaned him to the Coyotes organization during the season and did not qualify him after the year. He is currently shopping for a 2017-18 team, could be in North America or in Europe.
  • L Mitch Moroz: Traded during the season to the Coyotes organization for Henrik Samuelsson in a trade that closes the books on the 2012 draft for the Oilers. I think. He was not qualified by Arizona and is now a free agent.
  • C Marco Roy: Played 23 games with Utica (AHL) in the Vancouver organization and then five more games in the ECHL. This selection had some analytics behind it, didn’t work out. No reason to turn our back on math, but also important to acknowledge Roy’s lack of offense runs in lock step with the rest of this list.
  • L Tyler Benson: Had a fine start to the 2016-17 season but once again injury derailed him. Benson is about where Marc Pouliot was as a prospect at the same age: Talented, effective when healthy, and losing precious development time because he cannot stay healthy.

SUMMARY

I use the Cullen method because it allows us to take bias out of the conversation. However, we were all blessed with the brains God gave us and 10 years of drafting in the second round needs to have a more successful result than Anton Lander, Martin Marincin and Tyler Pitlick. Edmonton’s successful second-round selections this century (Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene, Jeff Petry) all came between 2002 and 2007. That’s the kind of success this team badly needs.

 

 

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35 Responses to "THE SECOND ROUND (2017 UPDATE)"

  1. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Like the player (s) but I really hope Benson doesn’t become Pitlick 2.0.

    We need him to pan out, LW depth is bare.

  2. Clarkenstein says:

    Let’s stop looking backwards LT. As they say “don’t look back, nobody’s going that way!” In fact, I’ll keep my mentions of KLowe to a minimum if we focus on the future. There is a reason this team has had the worst record in the NHL for the past 25 years. Their second round record would be almost funny if it weren’t so sad!! As several people have mentioned…if the old management had known what the hell they were doing we wouldn’t have Connor. I’m ready to “shoot, shovel and shut up” about the past!

  3. sliderule says:

    The majority of the oilers picks could be considered late first rounders.

    If you are picking at top of second round and are only making the NHL average there is only one name for that.

    Failure

  4. Thinker says:

    People are really down on Benson for being hurt. He scored at about the same rate as Dubois, but in a better league. Basically the same offense as Yammamoto except more assists. I am fine with this bet.

    The oilers 2nd round picks as a whole get ripped on, but I think more blame lies at the feet of development. Moroz was really the only guy who was a bust from day 1. Musil showed some progress, and the rest were decent bets imo.

  5. leadfarmer says:

    I don’t like the 100 game cutoff. For Who cares if you got 101 games from a 4th liner that you spent a high pick (top 100) and years developing. Depth players are available for just money. I remember when they drafted Lander and my reaction was why would you draft Belangers replacement when you just got him for money (and please don’t say you couldn’t know he wasn’t going to be s top 6 player, there was nothing other than work ethic that suggested a top 6 player)

    Time to change the definition of success. 200 games of a top 6 player or top 4 dman for successful pick. You can use fairly successful for a player that played 100 games picked outside of top 100. But a basement dweller getting 100 games out of an early pick should never be considered success

  6. leadfarmer says:

    Carolina showing today that you don’t need to blow your cap space to sign a young stud player

  7. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    I don’t like the 100 game cutoff.For Who cares if you got 101 games from a 4th liner that you spent a high pick (top 100) and years developing.Depth players are available for just money.I remember when they drafted Lander and my reaction was why would you draft Belangers replacement when you just got him for money (and please don’t say you couldn’t know he wasn’t going to be s top 6 player, there was nothing other than work ethic that suggested a top 6 player)

    Time to change the definition of success.200 games of a top 6 player or top 4 dman for successful pick.You can use fairly successful for a player that played 100 games picked outside of top 100.But a basement dweller getting 100 games out of an early pick should never be considered success

    I think that’s a fine idea. for me, I was looking for an independent source who could give me an idea about what a successful second-round pick looked like across the league.

    Scott Cullen: Beyond the first round, there is better than a 33.8% chance that a second-round pick (31-60) plays 100 NHL games

    http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819

    That’s why I do this for all the rounds except the first round. I’m looking for a line in the sand that tells us average. Of COURSE we want more. We are trying, in this post, to take wants and needs out of it and just looking at the cold results.

    Also from Cullen:

    Picks 31-35: At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 32.4%
    Picks 56-60: At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 28.6%

    Not much difference based on the measurement I am using.

  8. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Carolina showing today that you don’t need to blow your cap space to sign a young stud player

    As did the Oilers with Oscar Klefbom.

  9. unca miltie says:

    Lowetide: As did the Oilers with Oscar Klefbom.

    thank you

  10. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: As did the Oilers with Oscar Klefbom.

    While I love the contract and the player I don’t find the two comparable. Klefbom was coming of a severe injury, not his first, and only played 30 games. Slavin just had a huge breakout season just like Klefbom had. If we were trying to sign Klef now I’m sure the price would be a lot higher so thank gords we don’t have to sign him.

  11. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer: While I love the contract and the player I don’t find the two comparable.Klefbom was coming of a severe injury, not his first, and only played 30 games.Slavin just had a huge breakout season just like Klefbom had.If we were trying to sign Klef now I’m sure the price would be a lot higher so thank gords we don’t have to sign him.

    That’s fair.

  12. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Top 3 picks are by far the most likely to be impact players, then 4-5 depending on the year, then the rest of the first, then second. It’s a crap shoot after that. Eventually trading or losing first and seconds will impact the org depth. Interesting the Oilers lost two second rounders and they changed the rule.

  13. Chachi says:

    leadfarmer: While I love the contract and the player I don’t find the two comparable.Klefbom was coming of a severe injury, not his first, and only played 30 games.Slavin just had a huge breakout season just like Klefbom had.If we were trying to sign Klef now I’m sure the price would be a lot higher so thank gords we don’t have to sign him.

    You sure about that? https://www.nhl.com/news/oilers-defenseman-klefbom-signs-seven-year-contract/c-779741

  14. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    I don’t like the 100 game cutoff.For Who cares if you got 101 games from a 4th liner that you spent a high pick (top 100) and years developing.Depth players are available for just money.I remember when they drafted Lander and my reaction was why would you draft Belangers replacement when you just got him for money (and please don’t say you couldn’t know he wasn’t going to be s top 6 player, there was nothing other than work ethic that suggested a top 6 player)

    Time to change the definition of success.200 games of a top 6 player or top 4 dman for successful pick.You can use fairly successful for a player that played 100 games picked outside of top 100.But a basement dweller getting 100 games out of an early pick should never be considered success

    Yes. This. I don’t have time to expound on this issue.

    You draft a below replacement level 4c, 40 th overall who plays 215 NHL games on a bottom-feeding team who scores 10 goals and 35 points.

    You succeeded and pat yourself on your back.

    I draft a top line winger 104rth overall who gets 232 NHL games and counting. He scores 73 goals and 204 points.

    I pat myself on my back.

    Clearly, both are equally successful draft results.

    The Oilers haven’t drafted a “7” outside of round one since Petry in 2006.

  15. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    As I recall, we lost a 2nd for the privilege of hiring Chiarelli days after Boston fired him, and a 3rd for hiring McLellan after “mutually parting ways” with San Jose.

  16. leadfarmer says:

    Chachi: You sure about that? https://www.nhl.com/news/oilers-defenseman-klefbom-signs-seven-year-contract/c-779741

    You’re absolutely right. How time flies. Although it even proves the point of Klefbom at time of signing contract and Slavin at time of signing contract aren’t comparable. It’s good to read Chias comments about Klef projecting to be a top pair d though. Nice change in talent evaluators from the Nikitins and Ferrences

  17. Chachi says:

    leadfarmer: Nice change in talent evaluators from the Nikitins and Ferrences

    You bet!

  18. smellyglove says:

    SG’s takeaways:

    1. Hmmmm – not much of a difference from early 2nd to late 2nd round picks in terms of success. I would have thought the gap was larger and would have ripped the Oilers so since they pick top of each round year after year.

    2. Leading me to say that the MacT experiment of hustling higher picks for multiple lowers could, at least in the 2nd round, be an adroit strategy.

    3. As one poster criticized, “This is ancient history, why are you worrying about this stuff?, I say: history matters. The unBrain Trust is still with the Oilers and exert influence in decision-making.

    4. Compensation for under contract executives is stupid. Why do the Rangers and Blackhawks get all the league concessions while the Oilers get boned?

    5. Agreed with another poster about redefining success. There’s got to be some sort of ‘quality score’ rather than measuring draft pick success by number of games. Maybe it’s TOI/GP multiplied by some factor of games,

  19. treevojo says:

    I’m just going to throw this out here cause I don’t think I have seen my ideal pairings to start the year on the Oilers defense.

    In no particular order. Lol

    Nurse- larsson

    Klefbom- Benning

    Russel-Gryba

    Klefbom and Benning eat up the pp time.

    Nurse/Larssson/Russel eat up the pk time.

    Fairly even minutes 5 v 5.

  20. Scungilli Slushy says:

    smellyglove:
    SG’s takeaways:

    1. Hmmmm – not much of a difference from early 2nd to late 2nd round picks in terms of success. I would have thought the gap was larger and would have ripped the Oilers so since they pick top of each round year after year.

    2. Leading me to say that the MacT experiment of hustling higher picks for multiple lowers could, at least in the 2nd round, be an adroit strategy.

    3. As one poster criticized, “This is ancient history, why are you worrying about this stuff?, I say: history matters. The unBrain Trust is still with the Oilers and exert influence in decision-making.

    4. Compensation for under contract executives is stupid. Why do the Rangers and Blackhawks get all the league concessions while the Oilers get boned?

    5. Agreed with another poster about redefining success. There’s got to be some sort of ‘quality score’ rather than measuring draft pick success by number of games. Maybe it’s TOI/GP multiplied by some factor of games,

    1. Those who have looked at it say it’s true

    2. For me falling out of the second round is not a good strategy, most good players are first or second round. I would do the opposite and trade 3-7 up for a second if there were takers.

    3. At least we have seen them drafting skill instead of role players. It is a crap shoot, go for an potential top 6 player every round (even if a long shot) because role players at the NHL level aren’t hard to acquire on reasonable contracts, and if you find one that is a valuable addition or trading chip as the cap dictates moving out players that become too expensive.

    4. The league has a history of going after the Oilers for their extremes – unbeatable or can’t win, too many 1 OV’s. There was a few decades in between that.

    5. Cullen’s model is as LT said a line in the sand to base a discussion around. A player that stuck in the NHL. My line for success is a top 9 forward (skilled at least somewhat) or a top 4 defenseman, a player that is more expensive once they’re established in the NHL. Because cap.

  21. Scungilli Slushy says:

    treevojo:
    I’m just going to throw this out here cause I don’t think I have seen my ideal pairings to start the year on the Oilers defense.

    In no particular order. Lol

    Nurse- larsson

    Klefbom- Benning

    Russel-Gryba

    Klefbom and Benning eat up the pp time.

    Nurse/Larssson/Russel eat up the pk time.

    Fairly even minutes 5 v 5.

    That is very balanced, if Nurse does well. McL has a history of running the top 4 a lot. I think he is also flexible, and if everyone was playing well he might consider it.

  22. treevojo says:

    Scungilli Slushy: That is very balanced, if Nurse does well. McL has a history of running the top 4 a lot. I think he is also flexible, and if everyone was playing well he might consider it.

    I am really just trying to put a plug in to see that elusive Lowetide balance photo at the start of the season even though I am a ” supporter” of the trade deadline photo.

  23. treevojo says:

    Scungilli Slushy: That is very balanced, if Nurse does well. McL has a history of running the top 4 a lot. I think he is also flexible, and if everyone was playing well he might consider it.

    And I have NO doubt of Nurse doing well next season.

    Book it!

  24. Doug McLachlan says:

    leadfarmer,

    treevojo:
    I’m just going to throw this out here cause I don’t think I have seen my ideal pairings to start the year on the Oilers

    In no particular order. Lol

    Nurse- larsson

    Klefbom- Benning

    Russel-Gryba

    Klefbom and Benning eat up the pp time.

    Nurse/Larssson/Russel eat up the pk time.

    Fairly even minutes 5 v 5.

    I like this a lot.

    Recall Chia comments about Nurse-Larsson at his year end presser. I think he was thinking of how to handle the Sekera injury in a “glass half full” manner.

    Much prefer Russell as an overpriced 3rd pair d-man as opposed to an overwhelmed 2nd pair d-man.

  25. slopitch says:

    The other thing about the 100 games being a poor line in the sand is that the Oilers were atrocious during that 5 year window. 4th line Oilers was ahl for most teams.

    Anyways, Mac Gregor was fired so I think it’s fair to agree that the 2nd round has been a fail. Just one more impact player and things could have been different. Although now we have McDavid so maybe it was worth it 😉

  26. Pescador says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    leadfarmer,

    I like this a lot.

    Much prefer Russell as an overpriced 3rd pair d-man as opposed to an overwhelmed 2nd pair d-man.

    Me personally, I wish to see Nurse continue his development on the 3rd pairing.
    Prince Benning will keep Russell from being overwhelmed on the second pairing. And as a bonus We will get to see how Russell performs as a Republican,
    The only question for me is Auvitu or Gryba as the 3RD

  27. Thinker says:

    Pescador: Me personally, I wish to see Nurse continue his development on the 3rd pairing.
    Prince Benning will keep Russell from being overwhelmed on the second pairing. And as a bonus We will get to see how Russell performs as a Republican,
    The only question for me is Auvitu or Gryba as the 3RD

    These are the 2012 Oilers in order of points. I would argue it was a little worse than that. I count 10 players who didn’t belong in the AHL. Some (Whitney) are debateable.

    1-Taylor Hall
    2-Sam Gagner
    3-Jordan Eberle
    Nail Yakupov
    Justin Schultz
    4-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
    5-Ales Hemsky
    Magnus Paajarvi
    6-Ryan Whitney
    Ryan Smyth
    7-Shawn Horcoff
    8-Jeff Petry
    Lennart Petrell
    Nick Schultz
    Ryan Jones
    Mark Fistric
    Corey Potter
    9-Ladislav Smid
    Teemu Hartikainen
    Eric Belanger
    Ben Eager
    Mike Brown
    Jerred Smithson
    Anton Lander
    Mark Arcobello
    Yann Danis
    10-Devan Dubnyk
    Darcy Hordichuk
    Nikolai Khabibulin
    Theo Peckham
    Chris VandeVelde

  28. digger50 says:

    Was just looking at some team scoring numbers and thought, “for the Oilers, how many 50 point players can we expect for this season?”

    Connor – yes
    Leon – yes

    Nuge – close but yes. He can get there with some PP time
    Lucic – yes
    Marroon – yes, he may regress but likely makes 50
    Jessie – – probably not. But I suspect Todd loads up too six with all the talent, and if Jessie makes the cut he’ll be darn close
    Strome – I think he makes 50 points
    Klefbom – I think he makes 50

    Sleppy – nope
    Drake -nope
    Letestu – nope
    Jokinen- nope
    Kassian – nope

    Could we have five 50 point players and a couple more very close?

  29. Thinker says:

    digger50:
    Was just looking at some team scoring numbers and thought, “for the Oilers, how many 50 point players can we expect for this season?”

    Connor – yes
    Leon – yes

    Nuge – close but yes. He can get there with some PP time
    Lucic – yes
    Marroon – yes, he may regress but likely makes 50
    Jessie – – probably not. But I suspect Todd loads up too six with all the talent, and if Jessie makes the cut he’ll be darn close
    Strome – I think he makes 50 points
    Klefbom – I think he makes 50

    Sleppy – nope
    Drake-nope
    Letestu – nope
    Jokinen- nope
    Kassian – nope

    Could we have five 50 point players and a couple more very close?

    I’m with you til Lucic, and just barely him. Maroon didn’t score 50 with a high shooting % last year, so he probably doesn’t make it. Only 9 dmen hit 50 last year, so I doubt Klef gets there. Strome might get 40. Jordan Eberle would be in the list.

  30. Gross misconduct says:

    To the poster that wrote all of the Oilers past failure’s led us to Connor Mcdavid. Props

  31. John Chambers says:

    LT

    Regarding 2nd round picks I am surprised to have learned how unlikely they are to yield quality NHL players. The Oilers’ supposed lack of success is not uncommon. That they’ve yielded Marincin, Pitlick, Lander, and not much else out of this group is consistent with most NHL teams’ records. Yielding a single quality NHL player once a decade (Petry) is a realistic expectation for a 2nd rounder.

    For that reason I believe a competing team should trade their 2nd for trade deadline help, or use it as a trade sweetener rather frequently.

  32. Rake 2.0 says:

    Thinker,

    None of those other 9 defensemen are on a PP with mcdavid. A power play that didn’t get really rolling until Klefbom replaced Sekera. Which didn’t happen till January I believe. So I’ll take the over.

  33. Revolved says:

    I know I’ve missed the boat, but the debate between WG and Vor in the last thread was gold and I had a comment that I thought informed the difference of opinion:

    WG was looking at WOWY numbers for Drai playing with different players on the same team in the same year.

    Vor was looking at careers where players changed teams year to year.

    This means that the numbers without the zoomer for WG are definitely lesser players, while for Vor they are most often the good players on another team.

    Even superstars need good players to riff off (wow, Lucic is already too slow for McDavid), but this comes down to what you pay them. Our acceptance of Drai’s pay has to do with his future numbers, so projecting is key and depends on the players he will play with.

    If Drai gets Lucic next year, I fear we will be disappointed with 8×8.

  34. JDî says:

    Max gets his right arm free just like his dad.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaaDfrjII-8

    And POW – right in the Kesler!

  35. highgloveside says:

    The Oilers didn’t trade their recent picks, the NHL stole them for signing fired Chairelli and McLellan.

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