RE 17-18 CONNOR MCDAVID: EVERLONG

Connor McDavid IS the coming attraction. He is the fastest man in the world. McDavid is blur meets rumor meets legend. He’s 20. All futures are not created equal, and this one is going to be breathtaking, like the first time you saw the ocean. Greatness in 200 feet, 60 minutes at a time. (Everlong)

CONNOR MCDAVID 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.89 (1st among regular forwards, No. 1 NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 5.96 (3rd among regular forwards, No. 24 NHL)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 52.9
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 3.5
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 55.2
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 7.3 (36 percent against Elite opposition)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 251 shots/12.0%
  • Boxcars: 82, 30-70-100 (Won Art Ross Trophy)
  • (All numbers via PuckIQ, Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Won Hart Trophy
  • Won Lindsay Award

RE 17-18: 80GP, 37-73-110 (1.375)

  1. How close was your projection last summer? Basically a direct hit. I had him RE 16-17: 72, 33-54-87 (1.21) and his Actual was 16-17: 82, 30-70–100 (1.22).
  2. Any chance you are undervaluing him here? Yes, I think there is. That said, the last player to score at 1.375/per game was Evgeni Malkin in 2011-12 (1.45/per game). McDavid could exceed that number, but we are looking for reasonable.
  3. When will he peak? This is a difficult question for elite talents. Sidney Crosby scored 1.26 per game at 18, then went 1.52, 1.36, 1.34, 1.35, 1.61, 1.68, 1.56, 1.30 and that takes us through age 26. He has been falling (1.09, 1.06, 1.19) since age 27 and of course there are injuries in those seasons, too.
  4. If healthy, when would he have peaked offensively? I estimated 21-24 for forwards and at least one smart person I reached out to agreed with me. Another smart fellow suggests a little older, but we’ll find out where McDavid peaks as we go along.
  5. How encouraged are you by McDavid’s early career? Over the freaking moon. We are talking about a generational, best in the game during his career kind of player. This is a special, special player. I’ll be telling my grandchildren about the first time I saw him skating at the old area.
  6. How did you arrive at the RE? I looked at Crosby at a similar age (healthy at 21, Sid the Kid went 103 points in 77 games) and projected McDavid to increase his playing time by one minute per game (Crosby also increased, same age).
  7. What else did you do? I looked at all forwards age 20 and 21 from 1999-2017 and looked at their points-per-game. My projection for McDavid this coming season slightly exceeds Crosby at age 20.
  8. So you basically did no work at all. Sad. I think I’ve got it surrounded at 1.375/per game, that number just slightly ahead of Crosby at 1.36/per game in an era where the power play skewed things.
  9. Why aren’t you factoring in Crosby’s PP era? Shouldn’t McDavid be projected lower? Crosby at 20 scored 38.8 percent of his points on the power play, 97 was 27 percent PP in 2016-17. Connor McDavid scored 71 percent of his points at even strength last season, I am projecting McDavid to be slightly superior offensively to Crosby.
  10. Are you worried that the league learned how to handle McDavid during the Ducks’ series? Sometimes things come around after being dormant for decades. This is the same kind of question we used to ask about Wayne Gretzky. When betting, best to side with the creative player who has the puck on his stick. Worked then, it will work now.
  11. Bet on McDavid? Always. If you aren’t convinced of Connor McDavid by now, you are limited in hockey understanding.
  12. After two years, who are his comparables? Connor McDavid ranks No. 4 among all forwards in points-per-game after two seasons (since 1999-2000). Sidney Crosby ranked No. 1 (1.39), Alex Ovechkin (1.21), Evgeni Malkin (1.19) and then McDavid (1.17) at No. 4 overall.
  13. So, Crosby is better offensively at this age! At even strength, in the first two seasons of his career, Crosby scored 112 points in 160 games, that’s .70 points/game at even strength.
  14. And McDavid? He has scored 105 points in 127 games, that’s .827 points/game at even strength. McDavid is a superior offensive player, obscured by the fact he is playing in an era that offers fewer power plays.
  15. If that were true, people would be talking about it! Yes, of course. People go out of their way to uncover good things about the Oilers.
  16. Why the discrepancy in the power-play numbers? In 2006-07, Sidney Crosby played his second NHL season, scoring 61 power-play points (59 at even strength).
  17. McDavid? A decade later, Connor McDavid played his second NHL season, scoring 27 power-play points (71 at even strength).
  18. So, Crosby is better on the power play? It’s difficult to compare the two eras, especially in regard to power-plays. In 2006-07, Pittsburgh enjoyed 463 power plays, including 253 at home. In 2016-17, Edmonton had 245 power plays in total, fewer than that of the Penguins at home 10 years earlier. You give Connor McDavid 220 more power plays and he’ll rip your lungs out, Jim.
  19. Did you break down your point projection by discipline a year ago?  One year ago, I projected to go 24-32-56 at evens, 7-22-29 with the man advantage, 2-0-2 on the PK. His Actual numbers were 26-45-71 at evens, 3-24-27 with the man advantage, 1-1-2 on the PK.
  20. How did you break down your projection for this year? I have McDavid 28-43-71 at evens, 7-28-35 on the power play, and 2-2-4 on the PK.
  21. A big spike on the power play? Yes. I think the Oilers probably get more opportunities this coming season and cash on more of them. Part of that may come because McDavid is going to shoot the puck more.
  22. Adjustment? Inspiration. Crosby got a lot out of shooting the puck a year ago, 97 is going to adjust to what the defense is giving him. Based on his ridiculous passing ability, the shot is going to be open.
  23. Who will McDavid play with? I have him playing the bulk of the season (5×5) with five wingers. LW’ers are Patrick Maroon and Milan Lucic, RW’ers are Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Strome and Jessse Puljujarvi. Jussi Jokinen also gets some love.
  24. Do his wingers shoot enough? I think the entire line would do well to shoot more. At 5×5, McDavid plus Leon and Maroon had a total of 435 shots. Only one game was missed, so we can estimate 5.3 shots per game for the line. Sidney Crosby’s most common linemates this season were Conor Sheary and Patric Hornqvist. That trio averaged 6.8 shots per game overall (total, with and without each other) at 5×5.
  25. Who wins? We hope it’s Jesse Puljujarvi long term, but Leon Draisaitl and Patrick Maroon are the likely opening night wingers.
  26. Why this song? It’s about reaching something very good, like over the top “if anything could ever be this good again” good. If you’re 20, and an Oilers fan, you are one lucky bastard. And that’s a fact. It’s going to be a helluva decade.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

68 Responses to "RE 17-18 CONNOR MCDAVID: EVERLONG"

  1. LMHF#1 says:

    40 goals or bust. No excuse for him not to. Has to be the year he gets selfish and the team benefits.

  2. jtblack says:

    ” Always. If you aren’t convinced of Connor McDavid by now, you are limited in hockey understanding” – Great line LT!!

    Well, you are not one to brag, but you damn nailed last season’s RE .. WELL DONE!

    The League is talking about calling slashing properly; I think you will see Edm with 2 more PP’s per game …. and connor’s total PP points approach 50 … I still like the 110 Total …

    I am not 20; but I am damn lucky I (we) get to watch this player for 9 more years + .. he is a Savant!

  3. Professor Q says:

    jtblack,

    I do love how they’ve started to say that the refereeing in the playoffs was inexcusable.

    After the playoffs are long done, and they defended the officiating during them.

  4. Thinker says:

    If I’m Daryl Katz, I would be on the phone to Bettman after every playoff games. The league can’t let CMD get interfered with and harassed to the point he gets hurt. Kesler picking him off the faceoff could have easily lead to a broken leg. The league has to protect it’s stars. Who gives a goddamn if plugs can’t check the best players? Nobody except Carlyle thinks that’s fair.

    It’s so simple to call the rules. Imo it should be an automatic slash if contact is made more than 1′ above the blade. There is no excuse to hit higher, unless you are trailing the play and out of position. Would be fun to watch hockey where teams actally have to play help type defense instead of just fouling.

  5. VOR says:

    LT,

    A minor point.

    You seem to be basing a lot of your assumptions on a comparison of Crosby to McDavid at 20. The thing is that McDavid was healthy this season. Crosby’s 20 year old season was disturbed, to put it mildly, by a very bad high ankle sprain. It forced him to miss 28 games in two segments. So you are comparing a healthy player to one with a very serious mid-season injury.

    You’ve made quite an assertion that McDavid is better than Crosby at the same age. That may well be true. But it seems like you are basing quite a bit of it on data from a year in which Sidney Crosby suffered his first major injury.

    Then you look at points in their first two years while ignoring the age difference in those seasons. Crosby is younger at the same point in career. By the way I think the same problem bedevils the 20 to 20 comparison where Crosby is older.

    In such a small sample size as comparing two players performance in one or two years of data any perturbation in data is likely to be highly relevant. Things like who each player played with and against might also be important compounding factors in such a small sample size. There are a lot of possible compounding factors and contexts.

    Then there is the fact that what way you look at the data matters. According to NHL.com and hockey reference in 2007-2008 Sidney Crosby played 791.31 minutes and scored 44 even strength points in those minutes. That comes to 3.34 points per 60 minutes of even strength play in his 20 year old season. Meanwhile according to the same sources Connor McDavid scored 71 even strength points in 1418.05 minutes of even strength play which works out to 3.00 even strength points per 60 minutes of even strength play. This data clearly contradicts your assertion about which player is better at 20. Though again, age differences probably matter quite a lot.

    In the case of the two year comparison I am a little dubious we can conclude much from them. This is because of the age differences in play (at a point where such things often matter). That said over the two years Crosby scored 2.95 even strength points per 60 minutes of play (same sources as above) and McDavid scored 3.0 even strength point per 60 minutes of even strength play. In such a small sample size that difference is utterly irrelevant and Crosby is younger in this data set.

    I am not disagreeing with your realistic expectation though I think it is likely to be a little on the low side. That isn’t a disagreement with your basic argument. I think there are likely to be significantly more goals scored this year than last for reasons I won’t bore you with here.

    I am just leery of making sweeping statements like McDavid is better at this age than Crosby without a robust statistical argument. I don’t feel you have the data to support such an argument. Just my opinion.

    In my defence I would point out that you are the one who convinced me it is what happens per 60 minutes of play that matters most.

  6. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    ” I am projecting McDavid to be slightly superior offensively to Crosby” … This does not Say He Is a Better Overall Player.

    also, Croz did not miss anytime in his 1st 2 seasons, best to get your info straight. LT had his info straight.

  7. Ducey says:

    Thinker:
    If I’m Daryl Katz, I would be on the phone to Bettman after every playoff games. The league can’t let CMD get interfered with and harassed to the point he gets hurt. Kesler picking him off the faceoff could have easily lead to a broken leg. The league has to protect it’s stars. Who gives a goddamn if plugs can’t check the best players? Nobody except Carlyle thinks that’s fair.

    It’s so simple to call the rules. Imo it should be an automatic slash if contact is made more than 1′ above the blade. There is no excuse to hit higher, unless you are trailing the play and out of position. Would be fun to watch hockey where teams actally have to play help type defense instead of just fouling.

    I’m from the “you send one of ours to the hospital, we’ll send one of yours to the morgue” school. The Oilers can’t be whining about officiating. They need to beat Anaheim at their own game.

    The first 2 games of the series you absolutely obliterate Kessler at every turn.

    It’s something people forget about the Cup winning Oilers teams. Calgary tried to intimidate them. The Oilers were able to more than adequately respond. Semeko, Fogilin, Lowe, Hunter, Lumley, Messier, a McSorley, etc.

    You want to fuck with Gretzky? Be careful Ol Fogie doesn’t break you wrist with a two hander.

    It’s supposedly a different game. But not in the playoffs vs Anaheim.

  8. VOR says:

    JTBLACK,

    I am sorry but I think it is you who needs to get your facts straight before you criticize.

    LT said:

    Why aren’t you factoring in Crosby’s PP era? Shouldn’t McDavid be projected lower? Crosby at 20 scored 38.8 percent of his points on the power play, 97 was 27 percent PP in 2016-17. Connor McDavid scored 71 percent of his points at even strength last season, I am projecting McDavid to be slightly superior offensively to Crosby.

    Crosby was born on August 7, 1987. That means the only season he was 20 was 2007-2008. In 2007-2008 he played 53 games. This was the result of a high ankle sprain.

    What exactly do I have wrong?

    The better offensively is implicit in my response. Do I talk about overall play somewhere or work on the defensive side of the game? Neither LT or I wrote at all about best overall player at that age.

  9. treevojo says:

    Professor Q,

    Have you had a chance to take in “the wedding singer” yet?

    Let me know what you think.

  10. Munny says:

    jtblack:
    VOR,

    ” I am projecting McDavid to be slightly superior offensively to Crosby” … This does not Say He Is a Better Overall Player.

    also, Croz did not miss anytime in his 1st 2 seasons, best to get your info straight.LT had his info straight.

    Both LT and VOR are referring to Crosby and McDavid’s third seasons. VOR is a long time and valued poster here, btw.

  11. treevojo says:

    Also since I derailed a thread towards BBQ last night I will take another stab tonight.

    I’m in the market for a used hot tub and have zero knowledge in the area.

    I’m looking to trade off some work with a guy for about 2200$ for a 2010 coast spa model #VSW50.

    Any information would be greatly appreciated.

  12. treevojo says:

    Also on topic I have no idea whether Mcdavid will match or surpass Crosbys totals but having watched pretty much every game Mcdavid has played in the Oilers colours and a lot of Crosbys I have come to the conclusion that for entertainment value it is not close.

    What Mcdavid does on the ice is unmatched.

    As an Oiler fan it does not matter to me if he matches SIds personal or team records, I will watch every Oilers game in awe and think how lucky I am.

    The guy is a freak of nature.

  13. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    sorry bro. i thought LT was comparing McD’s first 2 years against Sid’s first 2. And my take on his article was that McD is slightly better offensively. BOth Generational. Both Amazing

  14. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Great song, great player. Also perfect in that for long-suffering Oiler fans 30 years between generational players you know we’re going to cherish the McDavid era and not take it for granted.

    At the same time we’re always going to be looking over our shoulders wondering if this is going to be taken away from us and will anything ever be this good (again). The complex we have is real, and it’s manifested in this song and player.

  15. Lowetide says:

    VOR:

    I’m not sure where we disagree, but it’s probably my not being clear. When I said this:

    I looked at all forwards age 20 and 21 from 1999-2017 and looked at their points-per-game. My projection for McDavid this coming season slightly exceeds Crosby at age 20.

    Crosby’s number at 20 is the BEST in the group I looked at over at hockey-reference

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2000&year_max=2017&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=20&age_max=21&pos=S&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=games_played&c1comp=gt&c1val=45&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

    It was in fact the best since 1999, so my having McDavid exceed the number (1.375 to 1.36) was as far as I wanted to go. I wasn’t comparing boxcars though, numbers only, and at 20 and 21.

  16. VOR says:

    JT BLack,

    No problem. I actually think they are quite different players. Though I can’t quite explain why.

    It is probably the difference in excitement value. I think Treevojo’s point is completely accurate. McDavid generates an amazing amount of offense. More than Crosby.

    At least that is what I think but I can’t really prove it. When you look at Fenwick and Corsi events per 60 it is hard to see much difference at 20 – though I will say it again Crosby is older at the same point. Even so it is worth noting McDavid is still marginally better at generating offence (about 0.2% better in Fenwick though 5% better in Corsi).

    This would go to supporting LT’s hypothesis but isn’t anywhere near statistically significant enough to influence my opinion on which is the better offensive player.

  17. Side says:

    Ducey: I’m from the “you send one of ours to the hospital, we’ll send one of yours to the morgue” school. The Oilers can’t be whining about officiating. They need to beat Anaheim at their own game.

    The first 2 games of the series you absolutely obliterate Kessler at every turn.

    It’s something people forget about the Cup winning Oilers teams. Calgary tried to intimidate them. The Oilers were able to more than adequately respond. Semeko, Fogilin, Lowe, Hunter, Lumley, Messier, a McSorley, etc.

    You want to fuck with Gretzky? Be careful Ol Fogie doesn’t break you wrist with a two hander.

    It’s supposedly a different game. But not in the playoffs vs Anaheim.

    Beat Anaheim at their own game, does that mean to get the refs calls to swing their way?

    What was it, 4 goals that were a result of non-calls or just making up rules as they go?

  18. Thinker says:

    Adarius bowman drops remind me of McDavid dropping dimes that guys can’t finish. Patrick Maroon is really underestimated by some. He does a really good job of finishing chances.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Thinker:
    Adarius bowman drops remind me of McDavid dropping dimes that guys can’t finish. Patrick Maroon is really underestimated by some. He does a really good job of finishing chances.

    Probably gets him a contract next summer, depending on how much he wants to cash in on free agency.

  20. HALFWALL says:

    LT says:”Yes, of course. People go out of their way to uncover good things about the Oilers.”

    Pitch perfect sarcasm.

    I only started following the mainstream hockey blogo-sphere, twitter-sphere and podcast-verse over last couple years. I didn’t realize just how much shade people threw at the Oil or at best, how much they went out of their way to ignore them.

    This is except for CMD – you can’t throw shade on or ignore the Sun itself!

  21. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    I think McD’s ES points say it all. His speed creates chances even the other Generational players didnt get.

    “Crosby scored 112 points in 160 games, that’s .70 points/game at even strength.And McDavid? He has scored 105 points in 127 games, that’s .827 points/game at even strength. McDavid is a superior offensive player, obscured by the fact he is playing in an era that offers fewer power plays.”

    The first time I saw Selanne live, I couldnt beleive his Speed. it was Mindbending. McD has that AND the high end, All World skill.

  22. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    Edit: and with my Belief McD is as good or slightly better than Croz; I also think Croz is now #5 all time. He has finished 2nd in the scoring 6 times!! won 2. he could well have won 8 titles. so he is Amazing.

    Let’s hope McD is fairly Healthy over the next 4 years. i think he can go over 125 Points in one of the next 4 seasons. can you inagine if he had 200 more PP opps like Sid in 2007.

  23. VOR says:

    LT,

    I assume I am simply not understanding you. So I will try to be clearer.

    You said,

    “McDavid is a superior offensive player, obscured by the fact he is playing in an era that offers fewer power plays.”

    I was merely pointing out that this statement is not supported by even strength scoring data which you have sort of conditioned me to believe is the gold standard for head to head comparisons. In their first two years in the league they are statistically tied in terms of even strength points scored per 60 and Crosby is younger in his data set than McDavid is in his. When you compare 20 year old seasons McDavid is younger but Crosby is, at least based on EV points/60 a significantly better offensive player.

    I was also trying to make the point that head to head comparisons between the two are problematic because of injury and age differences. I can’t quite understand how you could be comparing the two if you aren’t comparing their on ice performance directly to each other. I am not sure what I am not getting. You could say I am doubly confused.

    I believed I had made clear that I am not challenging your projection. I was just pointing out that your stated position of McDavid being the better offensive player isn’t supported by even strength scoring per 60 data. I chose that approach to the data because it takes out of the equation the lack of power play time for McDavid that you mention in the quote above.

  24. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    whatvare both od their ES 60’s? are they close?

  25. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! By-bye Radiohead: good riddance! A fine choice in bands

    – LT says: points/game at even strength. This is an often repeated stat. It’s as if PP goals, by virtue of the fact that there is a man advantage, is somehow an inferior display of scoring prowess

    – I’m not picking in LT: because this is the current craze in the stat world. I think with hindsight, given the parity in the league, the locked down D systems, power play goals will be more valued, not discounted. More recognition of talent. G/60 is much higher on a PP: scoring goals on the PP is way more important than many realize.

    – I want guys who score a lot on the PP. Sure there are less minutes each player plays on PP, but that’s the trap when looking at things on a /60 basis and comparing even strength to PP IMO

    – Scoring matters: a lot.

  26. Chachi says:

    VOR:

    I was also trying to make the point that head to head comparisons between the two are problematic because of injury and age differences. I can’t quite understand how you could be comparing the two if you aren’t comparing their on ice performance directly to each other. I am not sure what I am not getting. You could say I am doubly confused.

    Well you don’t seem to remember McDavid missing half a season to injury so yes, you appear to be confused.

  27. Side says:

    Another

    “McDavid isn’t THAT good…” thread by VOR

  28. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    I was merely pointing out that this statement is not supported by even strength scoring data which you have sort of conditioned me to believe is the gold standard for head to head comparisons.

    Crosby’s 07-08 season, the one you quoted above, was his third season. We can use that season to project (as I did above, using hockey-reference) but it makes no sense to me to hold it up as being superior to McDavid since he isn’t there yet. Perhaps we can revisit the conversation after the season to come. He may well pass that 5×5/60 number Crosby produced. As I’m projecting all players in the RE via points per game, as I have for all years, the entire series is likely to run counter to your preference.

  29. VOR says:

    Chaci,

    I most certainly remember McDavid’s injury. I reference it when I say “I was also trying to make the point that head to head comparisons between the two are problematic because of injury and age differences.” Earlier I was discussing 20 year old year seasons when Crosby was hurt and McDavid was healthy. In discussing LTs first two years LT had already factored in McDavid’s injury by using actual games played so there was no point in mentioning it. That doesn’t mean I am ignoring it, quite the contrary I am saying it makes direct comparisons difficult over the first two years. As do age differences. Similarly 20 year old seasons are difficult to compare because of age and injury complications.

  30. VOR says:

    Side,

    Please show me where I have said McDavid isn’t that good at any point this evening. I am pretty sure I didn’t.

  31. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    VOR,

    Pittsburgh got double the power play’s a decade ago. That will mess with your 5v5 TOI numbers. Crosby’s TOI will be skewed towards 5v4 while CmD’s is skewed towards 5v5.

    I’m guessing if you lookup the ice time stats you’ll see that despite the higher points per 60 5v5, Crosby will have a lower points per 60 5v4 than CmD.

    If not Crosby is a vastly superior offensive player but LT’s PPG stat seems to show that isn’t the case.

  32. Thinker says:

    I love the CFL. So much more fun from the players. Odell Willis doesn’t get enough love on this blog. He literally went up to the opponent QB and gave him throwing advice.

  33. Lowetide says:

    Thinker:
    I love the CFL. So much more fun from the players. Odell Willis doesn’t get enough love on this blog. He literally went up to the opponent QB and gave him throwing advice.

    He has been terrific from the time he arrived in Edmonton. Amazing player.

  34. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    – Imagine when CmD gets his man body like Crosby:

    https://www.nhl.com/penguins/news/crosby-begins-training-program-at-historic-site/c-290389580

    P.S.: Hi RNH, see above: train to get an athletic explosive body: this sh$t matters…Your still so wimpy, like your pal Ebs, come on man:

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2013/02/08/edmonton-oilers-ryan-nugent-hopkins-set-to-return

  35. Chachi says:

    VOR:
    Chaci,

    I most certainly remember McDavid’s injury. I reference it when I say “I was also trying to make the point that head to head comparisons between the two are problematic because of injury and age differences.”Earlier I was discussing 20 year old year seasons when Crosby was hurt and McDavid was healthy. In discussing LTs first two years LT had already factored in McDavid’s injury by using actual games played so there was no point in mentioning it. That doesn’t mean I am ignoring it, quite the contrary I am saying it makes direct comparisons difficult over the first two years. As do age differences. Similarly 20 year old seasons are difficult to compare because of age and injury complications.

    Basically you are saying you can’t compare players to eachother, ever. There is some logic to that, but it leaves very little to talk about.

  36. VOR says:

    Say It Ain’t So,

    No commentary – just numbers

    Crosby

    Year 1 – 6.14 power play points per 60
    Year 2 – 7.94 power play points per 60
    Year 3 – 5.88 power play points per 60

    McDavid

    Year 1 – 6.31 power play points per 60
    Year 2 – 7.00 power play points per 60

    I am not sure that has to do with the point I am trying to make but those are the numbers.

  37. VOR says:

    Chaci,

    I think comparing players is a mathematical fool’s errand but it is what we do here.

  38. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    Chaci,

    I think comparing players is a mathematical fool’s errand but it is what we do here.

    Lol. I’m sure we drive you crazy, but then again you do stop in! 🙂 I’m glad you do.

  39. Chachi says:

    VOR:
    Chaci,

    I think comparing players is a mathematical fool’s errand but it is what we do here.

    I do appreciate your contributions even if you must feel at times like you are screaming into the wind. You do it with class.

    Edit: what LT said.

  40. Thinker says:

    VOR:
    Chaci,

    I think comparing players is a mathematical fool’s errand but it is what we do here.

    Math and hockey statistics don’t always (usually?) go hand in hand. I feel like I could shred the validity of many if I tried, but that’s no fun. I remember the reaction when I fought with Woodguy about PDO not being predictive.

  41. Chachi says:

    I have posted this before, but just in case any Foo Fighters or Letterman aficionados missed it, I believe this is the best live version of “Everlong”: https://youtu.be/vUKOtbVnV4M

  42. Side says:

    VOR:
    Side,

    Please show me where I have said McDavid isn’t that good at any point this evening. I am pretty sure I didn’t.

    More in reference to previous threads where you were asking why McDavid would be worth $13.5 mil and why people think he is a generational talent like gretzky, lemieux or crosby.

  43. Thinker says:

    Russel- The Pretender.
    JP-Learn to Fly
    Talbot – My Hero
    Kassian – Best of You

    Just my guess

  44. Gret99zky says:

    Love that Connor is an Oiler! We are so lucky to have him.

    “I wanted to show my commitment to the Oilers organization, the fans, the city and show that I’m in it for the long haul. I’m so excited to wear this jersey for the next nine years of my life. I want to win here. This is a city with such a rich history. It’s so important to bring that back, and we got a taste of it last year and we have unfinished business.” – Connor McDavid

    Unfinished business. Yes.

    Bet he trains extra hard this summer.

    Is it true he’s fighting Floyd Mayweather Jr.?

  45. VOR says:

    Side,

    Actually, I believe I asked why you think he is a generational talent like Gretzky, Lemieux, or Orr? Those are my personal top three. Having seen all four play both in person a lot and on TV a lot I just don’t see McDavid being in their number when all is said and done.

    Yet he seems to have many of you convinced that he could make any team a contender and any line mate a star. Given the teams that surrounded the three guys at the top of my list when they won Cups I feel like some of you are saying you actually think McDavid isn’t just the best player of his generation – which we will actually only know in retrospect by the way – but better than my top three or at least capable of feats they were not. Some of you are stopping just short of saying he is capable of turning water into wine.

    I simply asked what you were all seeing that I am not? That isn’t a criticism of McDavid. If you check you will see that earlier this year when everybody was going the sky is falling the sky is falling I told people to chill, to relax and enjoy the once in a life time chance to watch a truly great player announcing himself.

    Crosby much as I am arguing his case tonight is a ways down my personal list. Those concussions have really hurt his game. Not his fault but a reality none the less.

    I am not quite sure why it makes me a McDavid hater to say I think he isn’t yet and may never be one of the top three players in the history of hockey. And the same thing applies to my arguing that when aged matched and by the widely used metric of Even Strength Points Per 60 Minutes Played McDavid isn’t clearly better than Crosby offensively. These aren’t attacks on McDavid merely me pointing out that some of you (our fine host included) possibly have the cart a little ahead of the horse.

  46. Pescador says:

    Lowetide: He has been terrific from the time he arrived in Edmonton. Amazing player.

    Dman or forward?
    I forget

  47. JDî says:

    Thinker: Russel- The Pretender.

    I was thinking Disenchanted Lullaby.

  48. Lowetide says:

    VOR:

    Yet he seems to have many of you convinced that he could make any team a contender and any line mate a star.

    Interestingly, Rob Vollman was on the Lowdown this week, and we discussed McDavid as a foundation player. He told me

    1. You could pay McDavid in the $20M/yr range (if it were permitted by the CBA), and it still projects to a positive value contract.
    2. He moved McDavid from EDM to DET in his team cap value model. EDM fell from 1st to 9th, and DET moved from 31st to 18th.

    Rob seems to value him highly, as do I. You’ve asked several times for proof, but I think maybe the proof being offered doesn’t impress you. At some point, that becomes a disconnect and we are probably there.

  49. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: Interestingly, Rob Vollman was on the Lowdown this week, and we discussed McDavid as a foundation player. He told me

    1. You could pay McDavid in the $20M/yr range (if it were permitted by the CBA), and it still projects to a positive value contract.
    2. He moved McDavid from EDM to DET in his team cap value model. EDM fell from 1st to 9th, and DET moved from 31st to 18th.

    Rob seems to value him highly, as do I. You’ve asked several times for proof, but I think maybe the proof being offered doesn’t impress you. At some point, that becomes a disconnect and we are probably there.

    For every Gretzky there is a Stan Fischler http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/brophy/wayne-gretzky-unbreakable-excerpt-1.3819069

  50. GMB3 says:

    Hey LT, would it not be reasonable to assume that 5v5 scoring would drop if the number of power plays increase? More of his total ice time would be during 5v4, therefore reducing his # of opportunities to score at even strength?

    If you factor in the higher number of penalties both for and against the penguins in the seasons immediately following the lost year, I’m sure Crosby spent more time playing on both special teams, and less time at even strength, and this probably negates some of the difference in 5v5 production. (I haven’t looked at the total % of either players time at evens or on special teams, so this is just guess work)

  51. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    – Imagine when CmD gets his man body like Crosby:

    https://www.nhl.com/penguins/news/crosby-begins-training-program-at-historic-site/c-290389580

    P.S.: Hi RNH, see above: train to get anathletic explosive body: this sh$t matters…Your still so wimpy, like your pal Ebs, come on man:

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2013/02/08/edmonton-oilers-ryan-nugent-hopkins-set-to-return

    I wonder if his brother still trains him, lol.

  52. GMB3 says:

    GMB3:
    Hey LT, would it not be reasonable to assume that 5v5 scoring would drop if the number of power plays increase? More of his total ice time would be during 5v4, therefore reducing his # of opportunities to score at even strength?

    If you factor in the higher number of penalties both for and against the penguins in the seasons immediately following the lost year, I’m sure Crosby spent more time playing on both special teams, and less time at even strength, and this probably negates some of the difference in 5v5 production. (I haven’t looked at the total % of either players time at evens or on special teams, so this is just guess work)

    I suppose I should have read the rest of the thread before I posted this as it has already been touched on.

    Can someone please explain to me how McDavid at 20m/ would be a value deal though? That is ludicrous. I find it hard to believe there is any statistical evidence that supports this, and if there is I imagine it to be where real life and stats divide.

    I’m always down to be proven the fool on the internet though. So I’m wide open to hearing why I am wrong.

  53. Revolved says:

    Would anyone disagree that McDavid is the fastest skater ever? Given how this skill is uniquely capable of pushing play the right way for the entire team, it makes him incredibly valuable even outside his other talents. If it allows him plus two wingers making a few million each to score as well as three that would make $7 million each, then $20 million would be a value contract. However, only time will tell where he ranks amongst the best of all time.

    Vor,

    You said recently that you didn’t want to bore us with why you thought scoring would go up again this year, but I would be very interested in your thinking here.

  54. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Revolved,

    Lots of people would disagree with that statement. But he is perhaps the fastest ever with the puck in control and that’s probably more important.

    And he is probably safely top 5 fastest hockey skater ever.

    I’m not saying any one specific is faster but there are a handful of guys seemingly right up there without the puck. Wood in New Jersey, for example.

    But McDavid has skill in spades to go with the speed. He is special for sure.

  55. Marc says:

    When I describe McDavid to friends here in the UK I ask them to imagine a soccer player who is a cross between Messi and Usain Bolt.

    McDavid is already among the fastest players I’ve ever seen, and among the mostly skillful players I’ve ever seen.

    The combination is what makes him so special. I’m not sure there has ever been a player who could play so skillfully at such high speeds.

  56. sliderule says:

    Revolved:
    Would anyone disagree that McDavid is the fastest skater ever? Given how this skill is uniquely capable of pushing play the right way for the entire team, it makes him incredibly valuable even outside his other talents. If it allows him plus two wingers making a few million each to score as well as three that would make $7 million each, then $20 million would be a value contract. However, only time will tell where he ranks amongst the best of all time.

    Vor,

    You said recently that you didn’t want to bore us with why you thought scoring would go up again this year, but I would be very interested in your thinking here.

    They actually have the statistics that can compare the skating ability for top players from the CHL.

    The top prospect game does timed testing that measures agility and speed with and without the puck.

    There is no way to compare it with the old time players like Orr and Lafleur but 10 years from now it should be possible to compare Connor with the new wunderkid

  57. deankb says:

    Marc,

    If you adjust for a different era and allow you’re mind to accept that all athletes are bigger, faster, stronger now, this is basically what Bobby Orr did all those years ago, albeit from a different position. He was ridiculously sublime.

    Every time I watch Connor explode up he ice I do it with equal part disbelief and fear. I hope to Gord those knees and ankles hold up. Damned NHL always lets its generational players take heaps of abuse for no apparent good reason.

  58. jtblack says:

    Marc,

    Great stuff. Messi has dominated soccer. IF McDavid can have his impact in Hockey, that will be Fantastic …

    I watch clips of Messi over and over … he just has that unique ability to make defenders miss and is clearly the best player on the pitch 95% of the time. McDavid is the same as you said!

  59. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    “Actually, I believe I asked why you think he is a generational talent like Gretzky, Lemieux, or Orr? ” – McD is clearly a genertional talent like the above 3. If you can’t see that you are trying really hard to not see clearly. You proclaim that you were the one early in the year telling people to chill out and enjoy McDavid; perhaps you should bring down the comparisons ever so slightly and allow yourself to think McDavid is Generational …

    If he is not Generational, please explain. Only 3 players have won a scoring title in their 2nd year of pro hockey in the last 40 years …. With McDavid being one of them, would that not make you think that perhaps he IS Generational …

    Oh Wait, Connor’s birthday is 13 days earlier than Wayne’s … so we have to throw out all comparable data ….

  60. Side says:

    VOR:
    Side,

    Actually, I believe I asked why you think he is a generational talent like Gretzky, Lemieux, or Orr? Those are my personal top three. Having seen all four play both in person a lot and on TV a lot I just don’t see McDavid being in their number when all is said and done.

    Yet he seems to have many of you convinced that he could make any team a contender and any line mate a star. Given the teams that surrounded the three guys at the top of my list when they won Cups I feel like some of you are saying you actually think McDavid isn’t just the best player of his generation – which we will actually only know in retrospect by the way – but better than my top three or at least capable of feats they were not. Some of you are stopping just short of saying he is capable of turning water into wine.

    I simply asked what you were all seeing that I am not? That isn’t a criticism of McDavid. If you check you will see that earlier this year when everybody was going the sky is falling the sky is falling I told people to chill, to relax and enjoy the once in a life time chance to watch a truly great player announcing himself.

    Crosby much as I am arguing his case tonight is a ways down my personal list. Those concussions have really hurt his game. Not his fault but a reality none the less.

    I am not quite sure why it makes me a McDavid hater to say I think he isn’t yet and may never be one of the top three players in the history of hockey. And the same thing applies to my arguing that when aged matched and by the widely used metric of Even Strength Points Per 60 Minutes Played McDavid isn’t clearly better than Crosby offensively. These aren’t attacks on McDavid merely me pointing out that some of you (our fine host included) possibly have the cart a little ahead of the horse.

    Not saying you’re a hater. More of a McDavid doubter. Hence why I said it’s a “he’s not THAT good” perspective of yours.

    I can’t explain why I think he’s up there with your top choices. It’s like asking me why waters wet, I just know that it is just like I know McDavid is up there in terms of talent and soon to be performance.

  61. VOR says:

    JTBLACK/SIDE:

    I am about to respond to Revolved. He asked me to explain why I think goals are going to increase this year and for many years to come but before I do I have four reasons for being a McDavid doubter:

    1. The first and primary one is that you are all seeing him against the backdrop of mediocrity that is today’s NHL. He looks great in that context but how would he look if you changed the context?

    2. I believe there is a serious argument to be made that the hype has gotten ahead of the player. When once serious and highly respected hockey nerds like Rob Vollman say patently ridiculous things like that at $20,000,000 a year Connor McDavid would be a value contract I think it is time for everyone to take a step back from the precipice. And that isn’t even the most ridiculous thing the media have said about poor Connor. I feel sorry for him having to live up to the hype every day.

    [One of the reasons that I think he won’t be quite as special as all of you do is that I think being the face of hockey makes you feel like you have to try to do more, be even more special. Hockey isn’t a sport that responds to that sort of approach. The harder you try, the harder the game becomes. On top of which the harder you try the greater the risk of injury. To some extent I think McDavid’s very status makes it hard for him to live up to the sort of expectations people have for him.]

    We all live embedded in the hype machine. I am maintaining some skepticism as defence against having to constantly listen to the voices and read the thoughts of those who have swallowed the Koolaid. That is not to say I am not a fan of the team or the player. I continue to maintain the Oilers are a legitimate threat to win the Stanley Cup this year. I have them as even money. I think Lowetide’s estimate for Connor of 110 points is too low. You can all check back at the end of the year and see how I did with those predictions.

    3. My family comes from Missouri – the show me state. I will know how great McDavid was after the fact not like all of you before. To me a number of things matter in evaluating a hockey player. One of those things is sustained peak performance. McDavid is too young, of course, for us to have any idea of his sustainability.

    I always ask it this way – is he Dale Hawerchuk? Hawerchuk had 13 consecutive seasons to start his career of over a point per game. I don’t care what era you played in that is sustain. Mark Messier had 12 seasons in a row and 15 total seasons above a point a game. That is sustain. Wayne Gretzky had 20 consecutive seasons of a point a game or more.

    We won’t know if McDavid has that kind of sustain for years. That is simply an irrefutable fact.

    4. There is much more to hockey than scoring goals and collecting points. McDavid still isn’t a complete two way player and I don’t think anybody would suggest he is (and neither was Wayne Gretzky at the same age). However, in terms of deciding who is a better player in an era of very low points what you leave is going to be just as important as what you create. In this same category is being able to do your thing when it matters most, that is in the playoffs.

    I assume Connor will get there (like Mark Messier) but Gretzky and Lemieux excelled in the playoffs the first time they got the chance and just went on excelling. For Connor to be in their company he needs to prove he can bring it in the playoffs. He hasn’t yet. That is just another irrefutable fact.

    We can assume, as I do that Connor McDavid will be among the very best playoff players in NHL history but we can’t know it until he does it. So until then I am waiting before I anoint him a Hockey God.

  62. reckless restraint says:

    Excellent read Lowetide, perfect song. Curious who you have pegged as The Pretender. Can’t wait until McDavid’s season wrap up and you’re berated for coming in under on this RE.

  63. GMB3 says:

    VOR,

    Backdrop of mediocrity that is today’s NHL? Elaborate on this please.

  64. godot10 says:

    Revolved:
    Would anyone disagree that McDavid is the fastest skater ever? Given how this skill is uniquely capable of pushing play the right way for the entire team, it makes him incredibly valuable even outside his other talents. If it allows him plus two wingers making a few million each to score as well as three that would make $7 million each, then $20 million would be a value contract. However, only time will tell where he ranks amongst the best of all time.

    Vor,

    You said recently that you didn’t want to bore us with why you thought scoring would go up again this year, but I would be very interested in your thinking here.

    McDavid is the fastest skater ever WITH ELITE HOCKEY SKILLS. There are probably many skaters faster than McDavid…like most of those short track speed skating guys.

  65. godot10 says:

    GMB3: I
    Can someone please explain to me how McDavid at 20m/ would be a value deal though? That is ludicrous. I find it hard to believe there is any statistical evidence that supports this, and if there is I imagine it to be where real life and stats divide.

    The Pareto principle states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.

    It is untested whether it applies to hockey or sports. If it did it would suggest that fair value would be paying your five best players (if they are actually drivers) 80% of the cap, and the remaining 18 players, 20% of the cap.

    So five players would get $60 million dollars combined, and the other 18 would share $15 million.

    The problem is recognizing who is a real driver, and overpaying players who aren’t.

    One can sort of get a beginning of a Pareto type of analysis in Woodmoney, where they have fairly stringent conditions on who they consider elite. I should ask them what percentage of players they consider elite. It is probably less than 10%. One could or should pay them most of the money, and everyone else peanuts.

  66. Side says:

    GMB3:
    VOR,

    Backdrop of mediocrity that is today’s NHL? Elaborate on this please.

    I am struggling with that part as well. No clue how today’s NHL is “mediocre”, at all. I don’t know if he means the rules changed which makes the game mediocre, or if he’s implying that the athletes in today’s NHL are somehow more mediocre than the previous generation of players?

  67. VOR says:

    GMB3, SIDE,

    I just came in from running irrigation to all of the orchards and gardens we don’t yet drip irrigate. It is frigging hot out here. It is 32 with a humidex of 38. Way too hot to be hauling 1 inch irrigation hose for miles.

    What I meant by mediocrity is quite straight forward. The salary cap and really bad decisions on equipment and very inconsistent officiating has combined to create an environment where no team can dominate for long or by much. And one where luck plays a bigger role than it should – see my earlier posts on that subject. And where luck matters more, then talent matters less than it should. I can’t imagine there would be many people who would disagree with me up to here.

    Sure Pittsburgh just won two Stanley Cups in a row. Full credit to them but is that team really much better than the other teams that made the playoffs these last two seasons. Pittsburgh versus Washington could have been great. On paper it looked great, unbelievably close. But in real time it was really pretty underwhelming. Hell Pittsburgh versus Philadelphia from a few years ago was far more entertaining.

    Now lets go back a bit. I came of age watching the Battle of Alberta and it wasn’t a battle it was a war. Made possible by two teams that were massively stacked with talent and fueled by a true hatred for each other. You got to see who withered and how thrived in the heat of a battle of equals – each team far above anybody else in the NHL.

    In today’s NHL there are so few goals scored that luck can determine the outcome of a game on one single bounce. Or as we’ve seen lately one bad call. In today’s NHL players can’t take a chance on the big hit or the end to end rush because just one bad break is enough to determine the outcome of a game. Those Battles were filled with high light reel goals, bloody mayhem in front, bench clearing brawls, heavy weight scraps, and endless shifts in momentum and of course thunderous hit after thunderous hit. It was no place for the weak of heart. But it could never happen in today’s NHL.

    Try comparing the two – this year’s Pittsburgh Washington series to those Battles – or compare this years semi-final and final Boston/Montreal or Montreal/Philadelphia in the 70s.

    Additionally, in today’s NHL great players get whacked, hacked, held, and interfered with. Of course to some extent that has always been their fate and the best of them learn to overcome. However, in the past if you got too friendly with Mr. Gretzky you were likely to need dental surgery and possibly some internal parts like your spleen removed. Today that sort of retaliation would be met by an insanely long suspension.

    This inequality in officiating – let the cheap shit go and punish those that retaliate combined with the cap means a league of teams that are too closely clumped together for a dominant team to emerge. This in turn means there is no dynastic foe to overcome. Heroes need stages and hockey has worked really hard at removing any chance at a David and Goliath narrative or even a battle of titans.

    Whether any of us want it that way or not greatness is measured by what you do against the best – when there is no clear best, when everyone is largely equal a great player has no-one to test their mettle. Today’s NHL is mediocre in that there are very small differences between the best teams and no clear leader of the pack. There is no standard of excellence like the Canadiens once were or for that matter the Islanders.

    Just pause here and think about this for a moment. How great would we think Gretzky and the Boys on the Bus were without the Canadiens, the Islanders and the Flames? If all three teams had been a bunch of meh? Well welcome to the modern NHL, a bowl full of meh. Oh pardon me, a bowl full of parity.

    Well it is in a bowl full of parity that McDavid has been placed. That makes it very hard for me to compare him to players who had a chance to be forged in fire, wage hopeless battles against giants, stare down monsters, and most of all emerge heroic clutching the heads of a fallen dynasty. Unless something changes he won’t ever have that chance.

  68. GBandQ says:

    Great piece, and excellent choice for musical “accompaniment”, Mr. Lowetide.
    “Everlong” is perfect for #97, and i would also have considered “Come Alive”.
    Altho maybe that song better describes Oiler FANS.

    Maybe you can do an RE on us, the fanbase? :p

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca