UNE QUESTION, UNE RESPONSE

I learned a lot in my youth from CBC French. The television network that provided semi-nudity on Sunday mornings (honestly, English kids were getting Hymn Sing!) also gave me Expos baseball. My recollection of the phrases (“curcuit!” for home run, “la chandelle” for pop fly) is probably wrong, as chandelle is candle, but  I swear that’s what they said in 1971.

One of my favorite features was called “Une Question, Une Response” because I could try to make out the words. Mostly it was “ramble ramble ramble BILL LEE ramble ramble” but at least I got to see players answer the questions in English.

UNE QUESTION, UNE RESPONSE!

  • Who is the best option for second pairing RHD and is this a suitable option or a stopgap measure?

The answer is Matt Benning and I do think he’s a good bet to be the long term answer there. His Woodmoney numbers are terrific and he was successful in 5×5 possession with all partners but one. Ideally you’d put him with Andrej Sekera but that will have to wait, and there’s a good chance Benning will play with the one partner he struggled with one year ago (Kris Russell). What’s more, if the Oilers do well with Sekera out, my guess is Edmonton pursues the idea of offloading the veteran defender and keeping RNH (if he is playing well). I understand the NMC but things change.

As for opening night blue, what about this?

  • Klefbom—Larsson
  • Russell—Benning
  • Nurse—Gryba

UNE QUESTION, UNE RESPONSE!

  • Who plays right wing on the skill lines and will it work?

I think we should assume that it will be ‘Mirror Man’ on the McDavid line (Draisaitl/Strome) and Jesse Puljujarvi and Anton Slepyshev on the other skill lines.

I can see the 2line being Lucic-Leon-Slepyshev when LD is pivot, meaning JP is alongside Jussi Jokinen and the Nuge. When Strome is the center, he’ll be on a soft parade trio, with (possibly) Jokinen and Puljujarvi. The other wild cards are Drake Caggiula and Zack Kassian and we might see:

  • Maroon—McDavid—Caggiula
  • Lucic—Draisaitl—Strome
  • Jokinen—Nuge—Puljujarvi
  • Slepyshev—Letestu—Kassian

Of course all this conversation and it’ll change before the second period of Game 1 against Calgary. Many people are talking about Nuge on RW with McDavid, would be fascinating to see if RNH’s offense could reseurrect under 97 and then be moved to another line.

UNE QUESTION, UNE RESPONSE!

  • Should the Oilers invest an entire season in Laurent Brossoit as backup?

At some point, when a player has done all that has been asked, then I do think it’s incumbent on a team to give a player a full chance at an NHL job. That said, if he struggles with the workload (three or four games a month) then Nick Ellis or a trade should be given a chance to fill the void. I think the Oilers are better than the Flames and could push Anaheim again for the Pacific Division crown, but part of that equation includes superior goaltending.

UNE QUESTION, UNE RESPONSE!

  • You mentioned Josh Leivo as a possible acquisition yesterday. Are there any waiver eligible players worth contemplating?

I think the first thing to talk about when discussing waiver eligibles is trading for them. The Oilers are too far down the list to expect success on a waiver claim, so a trade is more likely. Among the prospects who might be vulnerable:

  • RD Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. I have listed him many times, Sproul played 27 NHL games last season (1-6-7) and he has promise as a puck mover.
  • L Kerby Rychel, Toronto Maple Leafs. I’m not exactly sure how he is waiver eligible but Cap Friendly says he is and there will be interest. Rychel is a rugged power forward and absolutely fits the Chiarelli template.
  • L Josh Leivo, Toronto Maple Leafs. I’ve been watching his progress for some time, he’s going to be the modern Lowell MacDonald. Pretty sure.
  • RD Ville Pokka, Chicago Blackhawks. He still hasn’t established himself as an NHL player but there’s skill there and he is worth a waiver claim.
  • R Emerson Etem, Arizona Coyotes. He can fly and shoots the puck a lot, two things the Oilers need. Comes at a great price, too.
  • L Hunter Shinkaruk, Calgary Flames. I’ve been drilling down on AHL scoring in the last week or so and this fellow is showing up in good spots. Might be getting zoomed, but his primary points-per-game ranks near the top of entry-level deals. He is waiver eligible.
  • RD Tim Heed, San Jose Sharks. He is delivering impressive numbers but the Sharks slow play their kids a lot so he’s maybe a little vulnerable. Would be an excellent acquisition, he might slide right on to the 1PP.
  • LD Griffin Reinhart, Vegas Golden Knights. If he is sent down, I’m not sure if Edmonton gets the first right of refusal. If PC can get him, even via trade, expect he will.

UNE QUESTION, UNE RESPONSE!

  • When will the Leon Draisaitl contract get done?

A watched pot never boils. One day later this summer you’ll go to your car after work and the news will be on the radio, or your buddy will text you “WTF LEON????” and you’ll have that moment of excitement mixed with pleasure combined with the feeling of impending doom when the experts chime in on the pricetag. Peter Chiarelli is playing the hand well, and now it’s a matter of ‘he who speaks first, loses” and the first call has to come from the player side. In negotiations, indifference as to the outcome, even though it’s B.S., does have an effect on things.

UNE QUESTION, UNE RESPONSE!

  • Is Peter Chiarelli done?

The remaining cap room says no, but Peter Chiarelli has slow played this summer compared to previous editions. We’ll see how this plays out after the signing of Draisaitl, no reason on earth to start the season with over $5 million in cap room.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back! Lt_Eric has plundered Valemont and I spent the week in stasis, but we hit the air at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Mitchell, TSN. The trade deadline looks like it is going to be very active.
  • Jared Book, Bluebird Banter. The Jays.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Maybe the Eskimos go 18-0 while losing a starting linebacker every week?
  • Alex Thomas, The Oilers Rig. Oilers talk, BoSox trade deadline, Patriots training camp.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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66 Responses to "UNE QUESTION, UNE RESPONSE"

  1. jonrmcleod says:

    Good post! I enjoyed that format. Bonus that both questions and answers were in English!

  2. russ99 says:

    RNH will need a hell of a season for the Oilers to consider moving a key piece of the roster to keep his bloated contract.

  3. 106 and 106 says:

    Semi-Nudity, ha! Great taxpaying service.

    What’s more, if the Oilers do well with Sekera out, my guess is Edmonton pursues the idea of offloading the veteran defender and keeping RNH (if he is playing well).

    Sekera – Signed by Chiarelli, Great Playoffs
    RNH – Not signed by Chiarelli, Sad Playoffs.

    Sekera stays longer than RNH, based on history of moving the $6 MM wonderkids.

  4. tlatos says:

    Wasnt there a rule with the expansion draft where the team can’t re-acquire its lost player (Reinhart) by any means until Jan 1, 2018? Seem to recall TSN making a big deal about that with Methot in Ottawa.

    The Oilers go forward rule should be nobody playing on an expiring contract should be allowed to play on McDavids line. No easy points to inflate your next contract when the team is in tight on the cap from now on. Based on that the choices are Leon, RNH or Kassian. Only exception would be if Jagr is signed to a one year deal with all that extra cap space this year…

  5. frjohnk says:

    Maroon—McDavid—Caggiula
    Lucic—Draisaitl—Strome
    Jokinen—Nuge—Puljujarvi
    Slepyshev—Letestu—Kassian

    I like the players on here. Everybody can basically move up and down the lineup and not really be out of place.

    A far cry from when we had the likes of Klinkhammer, Gazdic and Hendriks playing above their established abilities.

    I did not know they played 33 minutes all together up front
    GF% of 0%.
    0 goals for, 1 goal against
    CF% of 28%
    28.5 CF/60, 71.5 CA/60

    They didn’t do so good away from each other as Oilers

    Player_Name TOI GF% CF%
    MATT HENDRICKS* 2169 39.7 44.8
    LUKE GAZDIC* 825:11 33.3 41.6
    ROB KLINKHAMMER* 526:46 28.1 45

  6. frjohnk says:

    Wow, Dumolin gets $4.1M.

    Klefbom and Larsson are absolute bargains.

    Also means that if Benning and Nurse have good years and are not bridged, they will be looking to get paid.

  7. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Any other fans of “French in Action”?

    Good lord as a teenager I loved Valerie Allain just as much as she loved to not wear a certain garment, bro.

    I tried to keep that as PC as I could but please delete if you feel it’s not cool.

    I hope that they give Slepyshev a real look on the top 6.
    It eases the pressure on JP
    He is still.only 19

  8. N64 says:

    tlatos: Wasnt there a rule with the expansion draft where the team can’t re-acquire its lost player (Reinhart) by any means until Jan 1, 2018? Seem to recall TSN making a big deal about that with Methot in Ottawa.

    https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/1324769-nhl-confirms-teams-can-reacquire-players-taken-in-expansion-draft

  9. McNuge93 says:

    Times have sure changed if we feel we can trade perhaps our best all round defenceman away. It wasn’t long ago our defence was a comedy team. Seriously, I just don’t agree with trading Sek so soon regardless of how well we do without him. It is so hard to acquire proven D and there’s nothing wrong with having a deep defence.

  10. Pescador says:

    Semi-nudity on Sunday morning, man what is it with you French people?
    Hilarious.
    I much prefer full nudity on Sunday evening,
    Thank you HBO,

  11. Rondo says:

    I think Oilers should bring in Andrej Nestraysil on a PTO.

    “In three seasons with the Hurricanes, he has an NHL average 54.6 CF% and 54.3 FF% while maintaining a nearly even offensive to defensive zone start differential of just 1.5%. Meaning he can be trusted in all three zones. He’s yet to spend much time, if any, on the penalty-kill, but that’s also something that can be taught.

    Like Winnik, he has the NHL body most GMs covet (6’3, 200lbs). And also like Winnik, he also plays center and wing, giving him the kind of positional flexibility the Rangers could really rely on.”

    http://clearedforcontact.com/lets-go-dumpster-diving/

  12. Wolfie says:

    Chandelle is absolutely right… it’s not meant to be a literal translation….. Kind of like “can of corn”… and it’s “circuit”. Loved watching the Expos on CBWFT!

  13. StixMalone says:

    Griffin Reinhart??? Are we going to go there again? Let’s just move on already. You know in a kinda “water under the bridge” sort of way. Really? Leave him there please……

  14. John Chambers says:

    frjohnk:
    Wow, Dumolin gets $4.1M.

    Klefbom and Larsson are absolute bargains.

    Also means that if Benning and Nurse have good years and are not bridged, they will be looking to get paid.

    Unlike Benning or Nurse, Dumoulin was #2 in aTOI amongst Pens’ defenders this past season. Prior to trading for Hainsey, it appears he was their top LD option.

    Dumoulin was also drafted in 2009, and was coming off a two year bridge deal at under $1m per.

    So based on the above, neither Nurse nor Benning should be able to negotiate a Dumoulin contract after the coming season, but if the Oilers do trade RNH they could conceivably allocate money in the $4M range for long-term deals with both players.

  15. stush18 says:

    Rondo:
    I think Oilers should bring in Andrej Nestraysil on a PTO.

    “In three seasons with the Hurricanes, he has an NHL average 54.6 CF% and 54.3 FF% while maintaining a nearly even offensive to defensive zone start differential of just 1.5%. Meaning he can be trusted in all three zones. He’s yet to spend much time, if any, on the penalty-kill, but that’s also something that can be taught.

    Like Winnik, he has the NHL body most GMs covet (6’3, 200lbs). And also like Winnik, he also plays center and wing, giving him the kind of positional flexibility the Rangers could really rely on.”

    http://clearedforcontact.com/lets-go-dumpster-diving/

    I’d love that. I was a fan back in his days with Detroit. I think he has slower boots though. I had him pegged as the next Anders Lee.

    Missed the mark on that, but he looks useful for sure.

  16. stush18 says:

    Posted this last night. Apologies for repeating myself

    Maroon-mcdavid-nuge
    Lucic-drai-slepy
    Cags-strome-jokinen
    JJ/Pak-letestu-kass

    I don’t think there is any way mcdavid doesn’t play every game without a shadow on his tail. The easiest way to counter it is to have him play high in the zone, and draw his shadow, and his dman, to him. Let nuge handle the defensive responsibilities, and outnumber the other team.

    Also, the oilers have been very candid about strome looking better as a centre, while aknowledging he struggles on faceoffs. I think him and jokinen will swap on faceoffs based off of which player is on there strong side.

  17. godot10 says:

    Opening night blue….

    Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom Benning
    Auvitu Russell

  18. godot10 says:

    // if the Oilers do well with Sekera out, my guess is Edmonton pursues the idea of offloading the veteran defender and keeping RNH (if he is playing well). I understand the NMC but things change.//

    Sekera was arguably the Oilers best D last year, especially since he was carrying Russell on his back. Nurse and Benning will have to take big leaps forward for the Oilers to improve with Sekera out.

  19. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Rondo:
    I think Oilers should bring in Andrej Nestraysil on a PTO.

    “In three seasons with the Hurricanes, he has an NHL average 54.6 CF% and 54.3 FF% while maintaining a nearly even offensive to defensive zone start differential of just 1.5%. Meaning he can be trusted in all three zones. He’s yet to spend much time, if any, on the penalty-kill, but that’s also something that can be taught.

    Like Winnik, he has the NHL body most GMs covet (6’3, 200lbs). And also like Winnik, he also plays center and wing, giving him the kind of positional flexibility the Rangers could really rely on.”

    http://clearedforcontact.com/lets-go-dumpster-diving/

    Seems like a fourth liner by scoring. What the Oilers need most IMO is a good 3C. If Leon is playing with Connor, Nuge is 2C and either Strome or Jokinen have to cover 3C, and while I think they both might be good, neither option are sure bets.

  20. stush18 says:

    godot10:
    Opening night blue….

    Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom Benning
    Auvitu Russell

    Klefbom-Russell
    Nurse-larsson
    Auvitu-benning

    Russell might actually be the best “defender” on the oilers. When you look at anything against, he’s at the top of the list. He just has zero offense. Pair him with our best puckmover.

    While I enjoy benning, I wonder if any here have herd the cautionary tale of Brandon Davidson? Now he was a bit older than benning, but I think I’d rather have the rambunctious nurse playing with the cool and collected AL.

  21. stush18 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Seems like a fourth liner by scoring. What the Oilers need most IMO is a good 3C. If Leon is playing with Connor, Nuge is 2C and either Strome or Jokinen have to cover 3C, and while I think they both might be good, neither option are sure bets.

    Honestly does a single team have any sure bets across their roster?

    I mean Pitt has holes all over their defence. Chicago always has no depth.

    I think every team has holes on their roster. Having strome/jokinen covering at 3c seems like a more sure bet than most others teams problems.

  22. jamesvanderwoude says:

    L Josh Leivo, Toronto Maple Leafs. I’ve been watching his progress for some time, he’s going to be the modern Lowell MacDonald. Pretty sure.

    ——————-

    He’s going to become a star at age 30?

    http://www.hhof.com/LegendsOfHockey/jsp/SearchPlayer.jsp?player=13454

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klefbom—Larsson
    Russell—Benning
    Nurse—Gryba

    The above would be the most logical going in to camp, however, I wonder (hope) if Aviuti is able to change the picture to something like this:

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Aivitu/Benning
    Nurse/Russell

    I’m loathe to put Russell back on the right side as I am really hoping he can be a more efficient puck mover from his natural side, however, if he is on 3RD, I can live with him playing on the right side.

    Of course, splitting Klef/Larsson is another option but I don’ think they go that route unless the bottom two pairings struggle in the early going without Reggie.

  24. BONE207 says:

    Outside of musical tastes, LT is the walking/talking version of my memory. French soft porn & a bag of cheezies. What a way to get through puberty.

    My bet is that the defense remains as is with no addition due to Sekera being a fast healer. Forwards may be acquired due to an impatience of TMac.

  25. matt says:

    1. What has to happen for RNH to play like he did during the World Cup on Team NA?

    2. Intrigued by Shinkaruk and Etem. Annoyed no trade was made with LV to send Pouliot there instead of GR.

  26. Jaxon says:

    Completely agree with your D, on forward I would move Slepyshev to Strome’s spot, Strome to Caggiula’s spot and Caggiula to Slepyshev’s spot.

  27. doritogrande says:

    D-pairings question:

    Can someone smarter than me dig down on fancystats for a Nurse-Russell pairing? Could they adequately cover the Sekera loss that way and have 3rd pair as Auvitu-Benning?

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    I do like Drake on 1RW for a stint as he showed well there in limited time last year (at least via the eye test) – I’m sure everyone remembers him grabbing the puck on McDavid’s 100th point.

    Reasonable minds think its a battle between Drake and Slep and Strome – I see pluses for each of those players (Drake seemingly has some chemistry and thinks offence, Slep has a good shot and willingness to use it, Strome, well, he shouldn’t play center so were else does he go?)

  29. Ducey says:

    The remaining cap room says no, but Peter Chiarelli has slow played this summer compared to previous editions. We’ll see how this plays out after the signing of Draisaitl, no reason on earth to start the season with over $5 million in cap room.

    Not sure the $5 M in cap room is exactly there.

    Capfriendly has the Oilers at $16.8 M in room, with Fayne. That increases to $17.8 with Fayne in the minors.

    Then they have $7.5 in potential bonuses and Leon at somewhere around $8 M. So that leaves them at around $2 M.

    They have Sekera’s LTIR but that only matters if to the extent they are over the cap – without bonuses. But they can’t get there because of the bonuses.

    I don’t think they want any bonus overages going into McDavid’s first contract, so while you could reasonably say that people won’t meet all their bonuses, they might.

    If he is treating this conservatively, Chia could be done.

  30. godot10 says:

    doritogrande:
    D-pairings question:

    Can someone smarter than me dig down on fancystats for a Nurse-Russell pairing? Could they adequately cover the Sekera loss that way and have 3rd pair as Auvitu-Benning?

    When you play with Russell, you are forced to play in your own end a lot more than usual. So Russell would be an awful choice to pair with Nurse or Benning.

    One wants to minimize the defensive decisions that a young defensemen has to make in his own end.

    Nurse with Russell would be a disaster, and potentially a huge setback for the proper development of Nurse.

    Play Nurse with Larsson, who has the ability to cover for any mistakes Nurse makes out of boldness, and who is a rock that will provide a steadying presence for Nurse.

    Russell will amplify the chaos in Nurse’s game.

  31. godot10 says:

    matt:
    1. What has to happen for RNH to play like he did during the World Cup on Team NA?

    Don’t play Nugent-Hopkins with Russell.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to LB, while I have confidence that he’ll be able to do the job this year and give Cam a rest for 15-20 games (he’s earned the right for the opportunity if nothing else), the potential to need to upgrade via acquisition is another reason why a further signing (Jagr, Markov, etc.) is likely not in the cards.

    Once Leon signs, we are already at 50 contracts (48 after Benson and Wells slide) and we may need to use a contract spot on a back-up acquisition (or god forbid Talbot gets hurt and we need a more experienced stop-gab) – our ability to further improve at the deadline would be more materially compromised.

  33. russ99 says:

    godot10: When you play with Russell, you are forced to play in your own end a lot more than usual.

    Funny, two seasons ago Sekera had to man our zone much more frequently, and when paired with Russell, he was able to be more effective going the other way and improve his offensive numbers and his offensive zone starts.

    Relying solely on CF% and fan irritation of the ‘reset’ is an incomplete view of Russell’s value.

    Similarly, Russell – Benning would allow Benning’s offensive game to take off, and Benning isn’t too bad on defense himself.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    At this point, I don’t think we see a Drai signing until late August/September.

    There is a possibility that it drags and he missed at least part of camp and that would be a perverse result.

    The team is already going to be starting behind the 8-ball with the Sekera injury. Russell will be anchoring a 2nd pairing, likely with a sophomore who we are hoping continues to develop. I have a bad feeling the team will struggle out of the gates a little bit this year.

    Having Drai in the lineup at the start of the season (with most of a full training camp) is absolutely imperative in my mind.

    A bad start could equate to missing the playoffs – the league is full of fake parity and a there is not a huge margin for error.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    RNH will need a hell of a season for the Oilers to consider moving a key piece of the roster to keep his bloated contract.

    Not playing 42% of his ES minutes versus elites would likely help.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    I really thing the 50 contract limit is our limting factor here – we have all the cap room in the world (for one year) but may not be able to spend it (or it may not be wise to spend it in case contract room is needed later).

  37. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: When you play with Russell, you are forced to play in your own end a lot more than usual. So Russell would be an awful choice to pair with Nurse or Benning.

    One wants to minimize the defensive decisions that a young defensemen has to make in his own end.

    Nurse with Russell would be a disaster, and potentially a huge setback for the proper development of Nurse.

    Play Nurse with Larsson, who has the ability to cover for any mistakes Nurse makes out of boldness, and who is a rock that will provide a steadying presence for Nurse.

    Russell will amplify the chaos in Nurse’s game.

    +1

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    stush18: Klefbom-Russell
    Nurse-larsson
    Auvitu-benning

    Russell might actually be the best “defender” on the oilers. When you look at anything against, he’s at the top of the list. He just has zero offense. Pair him with our best puckmover.

    While I enjoy benning, I wonder if any here have herd the cautionary tale of Brandon Davidson? Now he was a bit older than benning, but I think I’d rather have the rambunctious nurse playing with the cool and collected AL.

    Its not that Russell has no offence its that he stifles offence – the Oilers don’t score as a team when he’s on the ice. McDavid doesn’t score when he’s on the ice. Its a function of Russell not being able to move the puck efficiently, not being able to transition – either a dump off the glass, a flip up the middle or the behind the net re-set – no transition.

    I am very hopeful we see Russell on the left side as I feel he can move the puck more efficiently from the left side or on 3RD.

    Russell playing 1RD is likely the most perverse result we could have this season – so many minutes played with McDavid and stifling McDavid.

  39. Ducey says:

    godot10: When you play with Russell, you are forced to play in your own end a lot more than usual. So Russell would be an awful choice to pair with Nurse or Benning.

    One wants to minimize the defensive decisions that a young defensemen has to make in his own end.

    Nurse with Russell would be a disaster, and potentially a huge setback for the proper development of Nurse.

    Play Nurse with Larsson, who has the ability to cover for any mistakes Nurse makes out of boldness, and who is a rock that will provide a steadying presence for Nurse.

    Russell will amplify the chaos in Nurse’s game.

    #ImpendingDoomDueToCoachingAndRussell

    Get yourself a bumper sticker. It will eliminate the need to repeat the same thing everyday.

  40. Rake 2.0 says:

    godot10: Don’t play Nugent-Hopkins with Russell.

    This

  41. Ryan says:

    doritogrande:
    D-pairings question:

    Can someone smarter than me dig down on fancystats for a Nurse-Russell pairing? Could they adequately cover the Sekera loss that way and have 3rd pair as Auvitu-Benning?

    They only played 33 minutes together. They had a 33% goal share. 47% corsi for which was slightly better for Russell than without Nurse.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=464&withagainst=true&season=2016-17&sit=5v5

  42. JustWatt says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its not that Russell has no offence its that he stifles offence – the Oilers don’t score as a team when he’s on the ice.McDavid doesn’t score when he’s on the ice. Its a function of Russell not being able to move the puck efficiently, not being able to transition – either a dump off the glass, a flip up the middle or the behind the net re-set – no transition.

    I am very hopeful we see Russell on the left side as I feel he can move the puck more efficiently from the left side or on 3RD.

    Russell playing 1RD is likely the most perverse result we could have this season – so many minutes played with McDavid and stifling McDavid.

    C’mon man. This is intentionally seeing the negative where there is a clear positive to be seen. McDavid scored at a much lower rate when Russel was on the ice, there is no debate there. But McDavid outscored his opponents at a higher rate when he was with Russel than any other D-man on the team. Which matters more?

  43. stush18 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its not that Russell has no offence its that he stifles offence – the Oilers don’t score as a team when he’s on the ice.McDavid doesn’t score when he’s on the ice. Its a function of Russell not being able to move the puck efficiently, not being able to transition – either a dump off the glass, a flip up the middle or the behind the net re-set – no transition.

    I am very hopeful we see Russell on the left side as I feel he can move the puck more efficiently from the left side or on 3RD.

    Russell playing 1RD is likely the most perverse result we could have this season – so many minutes played with McDavid and stifling McDavid.

    I don’t think of it as 1RD. it’s more of lines 1A and 1B.

    And yes pardon me, that is what I meant. He stifles the oilers offense.

    But he also stifles the other teams offense. So until sekera returns, I play him with the best puckmover we have.

  44. stush18 says:

    JustWatt: C’mon man. This is intentionally seeing the negative where there is a clear positive to be seen. McDavid scored at a much lower rate when Russel was on the ice, there is no debate there. But McDavid outscored his opponents at a higher rate when he was with Russel than any other D-man on the team. Which matters more?

    I didn’t know that. Interesting.

    I think if that’s the case, you pair mcdavid and Russell together and give the other forwards the more offensive inclined dmen.

  45. John Chambers says:

    godot10:
    // if the Oilers do well with Sekera out, my guess is Edmonton pursues the idea of offloading the veteran defender and keeping RNH (if he is playing well). I understand the NMC but things change.//

    Sekera was arguably the Oilers best D last year, especially since he was carrying Russell on his back.Nurse and Benning will have to take big leaps forward for the Oilers to improve with Sekera out.

    In an ideal world the Oilers trade Sekera (who is my favorite Dman) next summer with 3 years remaining on his contract, in order to keep Nuge.

    Love the Sek, but I feel he’ll need to be traded before it’s perceived that his $5.5M annual cap hit is untenable given his age.

    Might be able to get a prospect D + a 2nd for him summer 2018, but may need to pay to have someone take him summer 2019.

    It would be like Columbus trading Fedor Tyutin in ~summer 2013 or 14.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    I didn’t know that either.

  47. godot10 says:

    Ryan: They only played 33 minutes together. They had a 33% goal share. 47% corsi for which was slightly better for Russell than without Nurse.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=464&withagainst=true&season=2016-17&sit=5v5

    **Too Small Sample Size Warning

    The pucks went into the Oilers net so fast, Russell’s impact on Corsi via surrendering the blue line and endlessly resetting failed to show up.

  48. norm_klassen says:

    The golden age of tv. “The French channel ” was one of 3 we got on the farm and it had crazy programming. Also when we got basic cable u got those late night romance dramas that showed semi nudity. Just boobs amd sex with camera angles. What a time to be alive.

  49. Jaxon says:

    Possibly exposed on waivers this season (some are very unlikely):

    D
    Scott Mayfield (NYI), Ryan Pulock (NYI), Nick Jensen (DET), Reece Scarlett (FLA), Brendan Kichton (CAR), Stephen Johns (DAL), Dylan DeMelo (SJS), Dylan McIlrath (DET), Jake Dotchin (TBL), Slater Koekkoek (TBL), Derek Pouliot (PIT), Frank Corrado (PIT), Christian Djoos (WSH), Ryan Murphy (MIN)

    FWD
    Scott Laughton (PHI), Stefan Noesen (NJD), Mark McNeill (DAL), Beau Bennett (STL), Joel Armia (WPG), Marko Dano (WPG), Frank Vatrano (BOS), Kenny Agostino (BOS), Seth Griffith (BUF), Martin Frk (DET), Peter Holland (MTL), Jacob De La Rose (MTL),

    Max, Sam and Griffin Reinhart are all waiver eligible this year.

  50. GMB3 says:

    russ99: Funny, two seasons ago Sekera had to man our zone much more frequently, and when paired with Russell, he was able to be more effective going the other way and improve his offensive numbers and his offensive zone starts.

    Relying solely on CF% and fan irritation of the ‘reset’ is an incomplete view of Russell’s value.

    Similarly, Russell – Benning would allow Benning’s offensive game to take off, and Benning isn’t too bad on defense himself.

    Do you not understand the dislike of Russell goes far beyond his CF%? For example, he is a poor puck mover, gives up the blue line with ease, and the fact he had a sky high SV% behind him last year? Or are you just of mastermind of systems play and drake caggiulas stick flex?

    And for the record, I don’t mind Kris Russell, but not for 4 years at 4 mill when he’s best served as a tweener 4/5 Dman.

    Contrasting Sekera paired with an NHL veteran and Darnell Nurse as a rookie doesn’t mean Kris Russell turns water into wine out there. Benning would probably struggle because he’s inexperienced and would be spending a lot more time in his zone. The stats back the eye test here.

  51. GMB3 says:

    JustWatt: C’mon man. This is intentionally seeing the negative where there is a clear positive to be seen. McDavid scored at a much lower rate when Russel was on the ice, there is no debate there. But McDavid outscored his opponents at a higher rate when he was with Russel than any other D-man on the team. Which matters more?

    I think the goal differential probably has something to do with the absurd SV% when Russell was on the ice more than anything.

  52. stush18 says:

    GMB3: I think the goal differential probably has something to do with the absurd SV% when Russell was on the ice more than anything.

    Russel is also the best at limiting shots, corsi, etc. So his absurd SV% might have something to do with him limiting shots so well?

  53. Dunduress says:

    stush18,

    I believe it has been shown that reproducing a high SV% is not a repeatable skill for Dmen. Specifically, it is not repeatable in having a sky high SV% behind any given Dman. Don’t quote me on this, but I do believe I have seen that mentioned multiple times on this site.

    Cheers

  54. Nuclear leak says:

    Trading Sekera next July to keep the Nuge is a move that should be fully embraced.

    5% chance it happens though.

    With Sekera out and Larsson’s playoff performance klef/Lars will be seeing upwards on 25-26min a night.

    Nurse/Benning & Russell/Thatculturedkid will split the rest. Gryba will draw in for the heavy games.

    5mil in cap space, either a puck mover is coming in for Nuge, or Jagr, Iginla, Doan are all being offered one years.

  55. GMB3 says:

    stush18: Russel is also the best at limiting shots, corsi, etc. So his absurd SV% might have something to do with him limiting shots so well?

    Smarter people than me have stated that individual defenseman do little to actually change SV% I believe. Could be wrong. PDO tends to always average out around 100 in the long run. I’m also not sure how limiting shots necessarily changes someone’s SV% as it’s a function of how many shots a goalie faces and how many go in. If it was limiting shot quality, sure. Is there enough data available to say he has a track record of reducing shot quality? I know he blocks a lot of shots, but usually that’s a sign that he has to block a lot of shots?

  56. GMB3 says:

    Dunduress:
    stush18,

    I believe it has been shown that reproducing a high SV% is not a repeatable skill for Dmen. Specifically, it is not repeatable in having a sky high SV% behind any given Dman. Don’t quote me on this, but I do believe I have seen that mentioned multiple times on this site.

    Cheers

    ^

  57. Ducey says:

    GMB3: Smarter people than me have stated that individual defenseman do little to actually change SV% I believe. Could be wrong. PDO tends to always average out around 100 in the long run. I’m also not sure how limiting shots necessarily changes someone’s SV% as it’s a function of how many shots a goalie faces and how many go in. If it was limiting shot quality, sure. Is there enough data available to say he has a track record of reducing shot quality? I know he blocks a lot of shots, but usually that’s a sign that he has to block a lot of shots?

    Maybe there is not enough data to verify this, because it is directly contrary to everyone’s experience.

    A broken down Cam Barker is going to give up better quality shots than Chris Pronger in his prime. A lousy team screwing up the Eakins swarm is going to have a lower save % than a NJ traptastic team.

    Better quality shots impacts save %. One timers, back door tap ins and breakaways are going to lead to more goals per shot than a weak wrister from the outside. Just ask Devan Dubnyk.

    Maybe the Oilers should sign me. After all, although I might not look good at first, my PDO is bound to rebound to 100! 🙂

  58. Dunduress says:

    Ducey,

    What you are suggesting makes sense, but maybe overall quality of chances cannot be massively reduced by a Dman? Maybe the best Dmen (at defending) can only limit the chances against, which includes quality chances BUT their SV% behind them remains the same. Basically it works out like this, an example:

    Legit #1 Dman has 5 chances against, the opposition scores on 1 of these 5 chances

    #5-6 Dman has 15 chances against, and the opposition scores 3 goals against

    In these examples one Dman is clearly superior to the other, but both have the same SV%. Russell is a Dman who, I’ve read, reduces the chances against. BUT maybe having repeatability when it comes to SV% is not possible because opponents typically score on a set number of chances against. So while Russell can reduce chances against, we can’t expect him to increase his goalies SV%.

    I apologize in advance if that is hard to follow or does not make sense :^)

    Edit: so maybe we shouldn’t expect Russell to repeat his on ice SV%, but (assuming it is his career norm) we can expect that he will continue to limit chances against.

  59. GMB3 says:

    Ducey: Maybe there is not enough data to verify this, because it is directly contrary to everyone’s experience.

    A broken down Cam Barker is going to give up better quality shots than Chris Pronger in his prime. A lousy team screwing up the Eakins swarm is going to have a lower save % than a NJ traptasticteam.

    Better quality shots impacts save %. One timers, back door tap ins and breakaways are going to lead to more goals per shot than a weak wrister from the outside.Just ask Devan Dubnyk.

    Maybe the Oilers should sign me. After all, although I might not look good at first, my PDO is bound to rebound to 100!

    Sure, but for your point to have any validity Takbot better save 95% of the shots he faces when Russell is on the ice. Not sure if I’d make a wager on that from your angle. Chris Pronger probably spends less time in his own end than a broken down Cam Barker.

    I don’t even really see what big picture you are trying to paint here. Did Kris Russell have an uncharacteristically high SV% when he was on the ice? Yes

    Does he hold the blue line well? No. Does he move the puck well? No. I’d say there is a lot more chaos in the Oilers end trying to defend the cycle when he is out there as well. Probably why they don’t produce much offense when he’s on the ice.

    Yeah he’s a real live 4/5 defenseman which is a nice change of pace in Edmonton, but 4×4 with the impending cap crunch? I find it hard to believe you think that’s a great contract.

  60. HenryDrix says:

    I hope Sleppy can grab the 1R job for parts of the season, he has the speed, size and shot, just has to put it all together.

  61. Jaxon says:

    I absolutely believe 100%that a good defenceman reduces shot quality as well as quantity. That’s really half the definition of a good defenceman. The other job is retrieving picks and getting them up ice via pass or carry to put your team in a position to score.

    I’m not a Russell fan, and definitely not a fan of Russell’s contact. I think he has chaos in his game. I think he pauses and loops with the puck in his own end too much, thus missing the opportunity to get the pick up to Edmonton’s fast moving forwards. I think he gives up the blueline too easy, while still protecting the middle, which is part of the reason he blocks so many shots. I haven’t looked it up, but I suspect there is an increase in shot attempts to go with his blocks. Does he decrease shot quality? Not by my eye. He doesn’t bring much offence.

    You can’t play defence without knowing that you have the ability to reduce shot quality as well as quantity. That is why you stand them up at the Blueline, keep them to the outside, and try not to screen your own goalie. You don’t want the opposition to get a shot at all, but if they get one you try to force it to be a bad one. Reducing shot quality also means clearing the front of the net and having your man covered. If your team does all of these things well your goalie will have a higher save percentage.

    I think Save percentages must be attributed in part to team systems and the quality of the D in front of them. That is part of the reason it seems that some teams keep producing quality goalies (BOS, LAK, NYR, CHI, PIT) where backups move onto other teams to become starters.

  62. Jaxon says:

    Right-Ds Scott Mayfield (NYI) and Dylan Demelo (SJS) were the small sample size, soft competition kings in the NHL last season. In just under 350 5-on-5 minutes last season their Primary Points / 60 was among the highest in the NHL. Demelo scored 1.03 5-on-5 Primary Pts/60 and Mayfield scored 0.86.

    For comparison:

    Top 4 D (tough minutes):
    Burns 1.30 in 1520min. 18.54/GP (#1D)
    Barrie 0.92 in 1365min. 18.44/GP (#1D)
    Karlsson 0.84 in 1491min. 19.37/GP (#1D)
    Carlson 0.83 in 1157min. 16.06/GP (#4D)
    Green 0.79 in 1363min. 18.93/GP (#1D)
    Klefbom 0.77 in 1405min. 17.13/GP (#2D)
    Ellis 0.76 in 1270min. 17.89/GP (#2D)
    Gudas 0.74 in1131min. 16.88/GP (#3D)
    Niskanen 0.74 in 1304min. 16.72/GP (#3D)
    Trouba 0.73 in 1152min. 19.20/GP (#1D)
    Gudbranson 0.72 in 503min. 17.33/GP (#2D)
    Jones 0.71 in 1361min. 18.14/GP (#1D)
    Byfuglien 0.70 in 1626min. 20.33/GP (#1D)
    Sekera 0.69 in 1309.38min. 16.37/GP (#4D)
    Spurgeon 0.68 in 1406min. 18.49/GP (#1D)
    Faulk 0.66 in 1370min. 18.51/GP (#1D)
    Schultz 0.64 in 1305min. 16.74/GP (#3D)
    Klingberg 0.64 in 1500min. 18.74/GP (#1D)
    Pietrangelo 0.64 in 1502min. 18.78/GP (#1D)
    Nick Jensen 0.62 in 769min. 15.69/GP (#4D)
    Savard 0.62 in 1349min. 18.24/GP (#1D)
    Van Riemsdyk .62 in 966min. 16.65/GP (#3D)
    Subban 0.59 in 1227min. 18.59/GP (#1D)
    Parayko .58 in 1340min. 16.55/GP (#3D)
    Hamonic .58 in 830min. 16.94/GP (#3D)

    #5D to #8D (softer minutes):
    Demelo 1.03* in 349min. 13.95/GP (#7D)
    Hamilton 0.95 in 1267min. 15.64/GP (#5D)
    Mayfield 0.86* in 350min. 13.99/GP (#7D)
    Shattenkirk 0.77 1242min. 15.53/GP (#5D)
    Ruhwedel 0.71 in 508min.14.93/GP (#6D)
    Postma 0.70 in 687min. 10.57/GP (#8D)
    Holzer .60 in 400min. 12.51/GP (#7D)
    C Miller .60 in 806min. 13.21/GP (#7D)

    There are some players of interest in this group.
    Demelo ($0.65 x 1RFA), Mayfield ($0.625 x 1RFA), Ruhwedel, Postma, Jensen, Holzer all have to go through waivers to get sent down and so, as Lowetide mentioned, may be available to trades if a team thinks they might lose them for nothing at some point.

    Trade options that look good are Radko Gudas who is on an absolute steal of a contract ($3.35 x 3). Erik Gudbranson who signed a $3.5 one year deal last season and may be available now or at the trade deadline if he indicates he won’t be re-signing. And his last contract seems to say he’s not that into staying in Vancouver.

    It’s hard to believe Ryan Ellis is only making $2.5M for the next 2 seasons. Not a trade option, but wow, that was a gamble that paid off for Nashville.

    Nick Jensen is an interesting player who has flown under the radar a bit. He put up decent numbers against good competition and is on an extreme value contract ($0.8125 x 2).

    David Savard is a decent contract as well at $4.25M x 4.

    Trouba will get paid on his next contract but right now he has 1 year left at $2.8125. It would be great if there was still some animosity between player and management form last season’s negotiations and trade request. I haven’t heard anything of the sort, though.

    Postma has been a fringe NHLer for far too long and I’m assuming he had very protected 10.57 minutes/gp.

    Ruhwedel played in 6 playoff games for the Pens. He’s only getting 650k for the next 2 seasons. Small player at 5’11”, 187lbs.

    Gudas, Gudbranson, Savard, Jensen and Van Riemsdyk look like very good targets (cheap contracts, tough minutes, and solid production).
    Demelo, Mayfield, and Ruhdewel may be good gambles if the price is very low.

    NOTE: Nurse (0.54 5-on-5 PriPts/60) is the 3rd highest scoring (Pri Pts/60) of #5D (15.35 to 16.08 5-on-5 Min/GP) after Hamilton and Shattenkirk. I think that speaks well for his future.

  63. Munny says:

    LT said…

    What’s more, if the Oilers do well with Sekera out, my guess is Edmonton pursues the idea of offloading the veteran defender and keeping RNH

    I mentioned this avenue when the Oil signed Avatar. Scrying in my crystal ball, I think it is a definite possibility.

    One of the things I like about Chia is that he gives himself multiple options. Sometimes doing so is costly (see Reinhart, Gryffindor), but he seems to hate being painted in a corner more than an expensive deal.

    As for “fits the Chia template” type players. I don’t think the template means Big so much as it means Battle.

    Hymn Sing, lol?

    I don’t think it was on in the mornings, LT, that I recall. I want to say it was somewhere around 5 pm, right before Disney. (But you might have just been making a joke, in which case, ignore this pedantry).

  64. Munny says:

    GMB3,

    I’ve talked to a few goalies on this, and everyone of them when asked “can a defenseman have an effect on shot quality” answered with an emphatic “yes”. When I asked them “how”, I got a more diverse set of responses.

    The scenario that has bothered me for some time is that rebound shots are the highest percentage shot out there and Dmen should have some effect on access to rebounds.

    Slot penetration, gap control and blocking shots were also raised by the goalies I asked.

    As for the repeatability of SV percentage, we would have to control all the other variables and this is not a simple thing to do. IMO the “shot quality” argument hasn’t been decided one way or the other yet.

  65. Munny says:

    “Une Question” was a good format, LT. Very enjoyable article.

  66. Mr. D. says:

    Would the unknowledgable please stop say player A can cover player B’s mistakes. If somebody fks up it leads to odd man rushes and a good attack will usually find an opening. Just hope player B doesn’t fk up in the first place.

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