NET WORTH

In figuring out reasonable for my summer RE’s, one item came through when it comes to goalies: Peter Chiarelli has been making good bets. From the trades for Cam Talbot and Anders Nilsson, to the signing of college men Nick Ellis and Shane Starrett and the drafting of Dylan Wells and Stuart Skinner, Chiarelli has been strong on goalie procurement—the only clunker being seven games of Jonas Gustavsson.

The big question for the Oilers in regard to the goaltending surrounds Cam Talbot’s next contract. He has two more seasons on his current deal (AAV $4,166,667) and will be 32 when he hits free agency. If Talbot posts two more seasons like the one we’ve just seen, his ask in the next contract probably takes him away from Edmonton ala Curtis Joseph in 1998.

Is there a goalie in the system who can replace Talbot as starter? Don’t know. One thing I do like: All of the men listed above have good boxcars over a reasonable period of time. I read a lot of worry about Laurent Brossoit but his career AHL numbers (115gp, 2.72 .914) suggest he has earned a chance at the backup job.

GOALIE SP RANKING 2016-17

  • Cam Talbot .9192 (No. 10 among starters, 40GP or more)
  • Laurent Brossoit .9289 (No. 3 among backups, 5-39 games)
  • Eddie Pasquale .919 (No. 11 among AHL starters)
  • Nick Ellis .918 (No. 13 among AHL starters)
  • Shane Starrett .925 (No. 10 among NCAA starters)
  • Dylan Wells .916 (No. 4 among OHL starters)
  • Stuart Skinner .905 (No. 15 among WHL starters)

That is some pretty solid netminding across the board, beginning with Talbot, who I think we can say posted one of the 10 best goalie seasons in the NHL 2016-17. Oilers need only one of these youngsters to turn out, but Talbot has just two years left on his deal. Brossoit is first man up, followed by Ellis.

OPENING NIGHT 2009-10

  • L1: Jacques-Horcoff-Hemsky
  • L2: Penner-Cogliano-Brule
  • L3: O’Sullivan-Comrie-Stone
  • L4: Moreau-Gagner-Stortini
  • D1: Grebeshkov-Gilbert
  • D2: Souray-Staios
  • D3: Visnovsky-Smid
  • G1: Khabibulin, Deslauriers

This is the Pat Quinn team, opening night. Lordy. Lubo on third pair, Gagner centering Moreau and Stortini on the 4line, Jacques instead of Penner on the top line. Ales Hemsky played 22 games and posted 22 points, on this team that’s incredible. Dustin Penner played all year and scored 32 goals. Lubo got himself traded, I felt so bad for how his Oiler career ended up, that guy could play the hockey.

CLARIFICATION

For some reason, I’ve been receiving several emails in recent days about my stated opinion on a few specific Oilers matters. Let’s begin by reviewing what I said:

  • Taylor Hall: The Edmonton Oilers have traded Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils. It is a terrible trade. Defenseman Adam Larsson is the returning piece in the deal, and addresses the need for help at RHD for the organization. Source
  • Kris Russell: As we discussed this morning a four-year deal is too long by plenty. The $4 million per season is also too much (several reports had the number at or near $4.5 million per year) and the contract itself is impossible to defend as value. Once again, free agency is a bad route to go. The Oilers are paying for poor drafting and have been for many years. Getting it right at the draft table this weekend is vital. Source
  • Milan Lucic:  If he has another 5×5 season like this one, we’ll have to hit the ‘buyout this contract’ button, but that’s not realistic. This is a difficult contract if Lucic can’t recover his 5×5 offense. Source

As mentioned lots of vitriol headed my way over these comments and even one ‘better delete those posts!’ comment.

I would like to talk to you about having the courage of your convictions. If you believe in something, like power steering or platoon advantage or red potatoes, then if you are a person of character then you must stand by those things even when they become unpopular. When you send me an email suggesting I change my stance, you have to convince me with logic and reason. That’s the job. I did the courtesy of telling you why I believe these things, it’s on you to convince me otherwise.

Taylor Hall could push a river on his own, grab possession authority and produce 5×5 offense pretty much all by his lonesome. This doesn’t mean I believe Adam Larsson is bad, or poor, in fact I thought he had a helluva season. My opinion of the trade hasn’t changed since the day it was made, nor will it, because the things I valued then remain priorities now. I’m not being stubborn in an attempt to piss you off, these are things I believe to be true. Hall’s 5×5 scoring, IPP, possession, all of these numbers are grand, and the return needed to be Max Pacioretty or Matt Duchene. As I write this, I flat out know the comments section will go straight to hell today, but it’s important to reiterate these things from time to time. I won’t change my mind because there is no evidence compelling me to do so. If I changed my mind on your say so, what value would my opinion hold for you?

Kris Russell can defend, just as Eric Gryba can defend. That has value to me and I have stated that Russell’s first season in Edmonton was value. My statement above is in regard to his contract, a $4 million times four-year deal that may end up costing this team Andrej Sekera or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. You can only have a certain number of $4 million deals, and those contracts (Talbot aside) have to bring at least some offense. Russell can defend, I see what value he brings, but for me the contract is too dear.

My Milan Lucic comment received by far the most reaction, and I think it’s probably a misunderstanding. I didn’t suggest the Oilers should buy out Lucic, but did say two other things. First, if he has another season of 5×5 scoring like he did a year ago, we’ll be talking buyout. I know this is true because I know you as a group. The second thing I said seems to have been missed by many of you: but that’s not realistic.  Edmonton can’t buy out the Lucic deal next summer, can’t happen. So, when you email me “your Lucic buy out idea is a deliberate attempt to enrage readers” I can’t take it seriously because that isn’t what the written words implied at the time.

If you say to me “your Hall take is bad because the Oilers scored 103 points without him” we can’t really have a conversation beyond surface waves to each other as we travel in different direction. Nuance. Courage of your convictions. Understanding what is valuable and what is less valuable. We have to agree on these things, at least to some extent, or we are Tower of Babel. Please tell me why I’m wrong on my Kris Russell take, please and thanks. Otherwise, I’m going to assume we speak different languages.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

  • Jonathan Willis, Oilers Nation. Jon and I will talk about ideal pairings for opening night and about where Leon should play.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. MLB trade deadline, the Argos and what their early success means, and McDavid versus Matthews.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Eskimos keep winning games while losing linebackers. This can’t go on, right?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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230 Responses to "NET WORTH"

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  1. Thinker says:

    OmJo:
    Sent a post over my phone but it seems to have vanished, so I’ll try again.

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Taylor Hall’s calling card is points:
    1) 2017: Hall was #20 LW in points, and the 75th amongst all F.

    Not taking into consideration he missed 10 games. For LW who played 72 games or less, he was 3rd in LW scoring, 9th in forward scoring. As for his PPG, for players who played at least 27 games (1/3 of the season) he was 14th for LW, 52nd for forwards.

    2) Last 3 years, he was the #14 LW in points, 24th in G’s, 54th amongst all F.
    3) Taylor hall is a good point getter, but not among the leagues’s best: he’s not a first line all-star, a 2nd line-all star, and doesn’t get picked for team Canada.
    – He’s not as good a goal scorer as Phil Kessel, who is none of those things either. I’d say Hall is a faster, younger Phil Kessel, with less a nose for the net than Kessel: fair, but plays higher impact minutes, with better linemates, and top-line.

    Since Hall came into the season (2010-11), Hall has a PPG of 0.84. That has 5th in the NHL for LW, 23rd in the NHL [for players who’ve played +300 games]. His PPG in the last 3 years (0.75) has him 9th out of LW.

    When healthy (ie 2015-16) he was 4th in the NHL for LW scoring. 20th for all forwards.

    How do his stats suggest he isn’t an all-star 1LW in this league? Even being 20 in LW scoring and 75th among forwards on a defensively inept team means he is still a top line LW.

    Are we talking All Star Game or All Star team? At one point Hall was the latter, but the league decided to put Ovie on twice instead. I don’t think he gets anywhere near that title again.

  2. pocession charge says:

    oilfan17: I’ll take your word for it, but in Leon’s case I think it has to do with his father’s coaching and connections there

    I think huge credit goes to Leon even though his dad is a brilliant role model. Kids don’t always listen to good advice but Leon sure has. Always working on his game. Trains like an animal in the offseason. His skating is drastically better since his rookie season. His shot is improving, too. An aside: if you ever get the chance to watch him play live,make sure you don’t miss the warmups to see his drills. So skilled.

  3. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OmJo:

    How do his stats suggest he isn’t an all-star 1LW in this league? Even being 20 in LW scoring and 75th among forwards on a defensively inept team means he is still a top line LW.

    – I can see why people get frustrated trying to have a discussion here. He is a top line RW!

    – Your using PPG over a very long period. Over a long time period, actual results matter more and players are valued as such. Use P/60 or per game averages to try and normalize things over smaller samples

    – If Hall was not injured and PPG = actual points, he would be an elite LW’er, for real

    – As it is, his actual production puts him in fine company as a top-line LW winger. One of 10-15 best

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pocession charge:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    They had massive addition by subtraction with Wideman and Englland.

    Truth

  5. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bag of Pucks: What do you make of Connor saying he is a great guy and an exceptional teammate?

    I think you answered your own question. Nobody knows for sure, but I notice with all of the players that there isn’t a lot of tolerance for not doing what the coaches ask, playing poorly, or having an attitude about anything, which has come up a few times with guys other than Hall. All demoted or gone.

  6. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: I think that first summer he made three bets, two of whom (Sekera, Gryba) worked and one of which (Reinhart) did not. He had a helluva 2016 in this area, so I entered this summer with the belief we might see a smaller brush and fewer moves. I really like Auvitu, great bet.

    I think, and I believe its reasonable, that concluding that those three bets were sufficient, was materially flawed. The best you could hope for from Gryba and Reinhart was bottom pair, and the oilers needed to be able to slide Fayne or the shell of the hockey player known as Justin Schultz down to that third pair. Chia needed to add another defender to the mix, even of it was bargain bin free agent signings like Franson or Schlemko.

  7. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69: I think, and I believe its reasonable, that concluding that those three bets were sufficient, was materially flawed. The best you could hope for from Gryba and Reinhart was bottom pair, and the oilers needed to be able to slide Fayne or the shell of the hockey player known as Justin Schultz down to that third pair. Chia needed to add another defender to the mix, even of it was bargain bin free agent signings like Franson or Schlemko.

    Yes, I wanted that too, but man he gave up a lot of assets in one summer. The big mistake was Reinhart imo, something I do credit Chiarelli with (and others credit Green).

  8. fifthcartel says:

    I’m kind of surprised people are that upset at your comments, LT, but I don’t doubt you’ve received a bunch. I thought people valued stats here, and took that into account when evaluating trades/signings.

    The Hall trade was poor. Having McDavid + a healthy top six/Talbot/Klefbom doesn’t change that. Larsson’s a good player, but he’s not a Hall-type player and Chiarelli overpaid to fill a need (he does this a lot).

    Lucic was a good to great player for a while, but that contract could look bad very quickly.

    Russell contract is brutal. He’s not a top four guy and the Oilers have him at 4M for the next four years. Good luck trying to get rid of that, meanwhile the defense probably should be upgraded as well.

    All of these things can be true and the Oilers could still be good to very good. They could just be so much better, although, I’m skeptical of their performance next season.

  9. who says:

    Litke 94:
    As of this date, in my opinion, it is complete balderdash to say that NJ has won the Hall/Larsson trade. Everyone has a right to their opinion of course, but based on the results of the teams and the two players last season, NJ is not winning the trade, and again in my opinion, it isn’t even close.

    Hall performed well for the NJ Devils last year, albeit battling injuries once again, as he had at times with the Oilers. Larsson was significantly more important for the Oilers last year, than Hall was for NJ. In fact, I would put him right on the same level as Klefbom in terms of importance to the turnaround. After a decade of watching defensive incompetence, Klefbom and Larsson provided a genuine top pairing that could be depended on to perform at a good to great to excellent level, night in and night out.

    The Oilers took Hall, and turned him into a clear #2 D who meshes incredibly well with Klefbom. The two play-styles that the pairing possesses feed off each other like good poetry, and Klefbom’s stellar season has a lot to do with being paired with a a defensive defenseman of Larsson’s calibre.

    And it’s not like the offense took a hit with Hall out of the lineup either. It improved. The entire team improved. Hall was an outstanding player, but denying that this trade did not improve the Oilers is a bewildering statement. It completely goes against the evidence of a 103 point season, and a playoffs that was 1 game removed from the West final, where Larsson was playing a feature role, every single night.

    Demers would not have provided the same impact. Florida already looking to offload that contract should speak volumes towards assuming that. Trading Hall for a similar type of offensive player would not have solved the hole on the defense. Chiarelli needed to find an affordable player (considering the mammoth contracts that were inevitable) that could step in and provide considerable, quality minutes. Ding dong, homerun. Chiarelli accomplished that goal with a bullet.

    Just because the perceived value of Larsson around the league and to fans at the time of the trade was much lower than that of Hall, does not mean that Chiarelli got fleeced. I’d argue it is the opposite. Especially considering how poorly their D core tanked last year with the loss of the player. Chiarelli knew exactly how good Larsson was/could be, and I suspect Shero did too. Wise NJ fans argued this as well at the time of the trade.

    And in terms of NJ. What I heard last year during the season was that, sure, the team sucked now, but with this trade made, they could easily turn around their D with some of their prospects and additions the following summer. . Entering 2017/2018, and they arguably have one of the worst d-cores in the league. Is the trade still won if the NJ has added a bit more sizzle fora lot less steak?

    Again, my argument is not meant to be disrespectful to anyone here who thinks otherwise. I get it. But the verbal from the Oilers community that gives so much praise to Hall and so little credit to Larsson, has to stop. Watch the tape from the spring again, and focus on Larsson. Undeniably fantastic. Undeniably important. In specific, maybe watch the game against the Ducks where both Klefbom and Sekera went down. He played nearly 45 (!!!) minutes that night in one of the most impressive performances by an Oilers defensman this century.

    And lastly, I am not blaming Hall for playing on a poor team. He has no control over the GM’s moves. But that doesn’t change the fact that a trade should not be considered as won, if that team falters, and the other rises astoundingly, and the two players involved are both feature members of their respective squads.

    Beautifully said

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    OK, I think you’ve moved on to the general question of how can we tell about a forward.
    Teammates matter, absolutely. But I think context matters as well.
    Would you say a forward who puts up numbers on a competitive team is the equal of a forward who puts up similar numbers on a weak team?

    If they play the same level of comp then yes. Better probably due to lack of decent help.


    I wonder about this. The competitive team has better players and better systems. A scoring forward on that team contributes to that but he also benefits from it.

    Most differences in teams is due to players, not coaches imo. Unless that coach is Roy. Even Hartley played to his team’s strengths imo.


    The scoring forward on the weak team has an advantage too, doesn’t he? By playing in non-competitive games? His outscoring of opponents happens in games the opponent probably takes lightly and in situations where that outscoring likely doesn’t affect the outcome.
    Eberle and Nuge had the first competitive season of their careers last year. Their offensive numbers were down. In the playoffs, more competitive still, those numbers were ugly. I was very optimistic about the Oilers’ chances going in to the playoffs, in part because we had these two guys who had a history of good scoring, other veterans who were good scorers in a lower tier, Drai scoring near a point a game, and CMD, who I thought was a special type of unstoppable.
    I came away with a bit, just a bit, of a feeling that Eberle’s and RNH’s historical numbers may not be predictive when the competitive context changes. Hall may be in the same boat.

    Well that’s easy to figure out.

    stats.hockeyanalysis.com has different game states to evaluate players.

    Looking at the last 3 years cumulative:

    Here’s a few options:

    5v5 – Hall GF% = 51.8%

    5v5 Close (tied or within 1 goal) Hall 51.0% GF.

    5v5 down 1 goal = 61.8%

    5v5 up 1 goal = 51.3%

    5v5 tied = 49.5%

    I think you’d agree that the data doesn’t support your assertion.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    No I’m not denying Hall is a good player.

    But it’s easier to get better numbers on a shitty team. We all know that. I really wish Hall had been traded to a competitive team, because it’s such a hard comparison right now imo

    Its easier to get good Rel’s on a shitty team.

    Its not easier to score 5v5 on a shitty team.

    Its actually harder as you don’t have good support and when you play against the best comp, you play against the best comp regardless of who you play for.

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Actually 13 games, which is when McDavid went down. By the time he return Klef was done for the year.

    Worst.

    Thing.

    Ever.

    Man.

  13. Jaxon says:

    $6M x7 for Lucic was bad. No doubt. What’s really terrible is that it is also structured with signing bonuses that make it even worse. If he has another mediocre season, he won’t be tradeable and buying him out doesn’t save the team any cap hit. If bought out, his cap hit in years 5 & 7 is still $5.73M!!!!!!!!!!!!! The team only gets $266,000 in cap hit savings when they buy Lucic out. Holy shit that is some bad negotiating! They are stuck with him no matter how bad he gets, and nobody will be willing to take that contact on even when his full NMC becomes a modified NMC on June 1st, 2021.

  14. jm363561 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Zibanejad signing for 5 years 5.3 per.Arvidsson signs 4.25 per.Good to see some GMs not just throwing piles of money at players.These are very team friendly deals

    Would anyone prefer Hall at $6m over Arvidsson? Wingers are cheap.
    Who cares how Hall has performed at NJ or what their fans think? Why is this relevant?
    How can you compare a LW to a RD?
    The question is are the Oilers better now and up to 2021?

    From 2010 to 2015 I figured Taylor over Tyler was the correct choice. Now I do not. As of today. I believe that come 2021 TheTrade will be seen as a definite win for the Oilers – Hall will trend down (injuries); Larsson will trend up; RD more valuable than LW; locker room intangibles; LW scoring was easily replaced; extra year + cap space. Other than Larsson’s performance my view is based mainly on imperfect knowledge and unknown future events, and may change over time. Its just one more fans (very) humble opinion – no need to get personal if you disagree.

  15. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    OK. I think I said a couple of things about context: 1) opponents don’t bring their A game because they don’t need to, and 2) scoring could be taking place when the game score itself isn’t very competitive.

    I probably should’ve added 3) scoring could be skewed; you score at a higher rate against the mooches than the toughs. But this is probably true of most scorers.

    Your numbers address point 2. They’re showing that Hall, in the past 3 years, was winning on 5v5 GF% even when the game was close, i.e., competitive.

    I’m assuming you got the up by one, down by one numbers the hard way, because I can’t see a simple way in the interface. I can get trailing and leading and overall results for the 3-yr range easily, though. Here’s what I get (my rounding might be off):

    5v5 (TOI = 3160)

    GF 131
    GA 122
    GF% 51.8

    5v5 Leading (TOI = 706)

    GF 29
    GA 34
    GF% 46.0

    5v5 Trailing (TOI = 1191)

    GF 55
    GA 40
    GF% 57.9

    5v5 Even (TOI = 1263)

    GF 47
    GA 48
    GF% 49.4

    There are other things I can read into these numbers (really not that different from 50), but the fact that Hall’s edge in GF% comes entirely from outscoring opponents in trailing situations doesn’t torpedo my hypothesis that his scoring could be getting a boost from playing in less competitive contexts.

  16. ashley says:

    I think the fact that the Larsson trade continues to come up speaks volumes about the shifting view of this trade in terms of value.

    At the time of the trade, many were on board with “bad value deal for the Oilers”. There were a few who said “fair trade with upside to EDM, especially considering the contract” right away, and kudos to them because I suspect that is exactly the way this is going to go.

    Hall is a good hockey player, but I believe he was overrated by this fanbase and remains overrated by a few remaining supporters. Still, Hall is a good hockey player.

    However, would we trade our right handed 24 year old #1D on a sweetheart contract for Hall? Not a chance in hell. I think that says it all. Not a smart trade by NJ and it will only get worse.

  17. Georges says:

    LT, here are a couple of your quotes from your post and your comments:

    My opinion of the trade hasn’t changed since the day it was made, nor will it, because the things I valued then remain priorities now.

    Hall for Larsson was not good value on trade day and my opinion of the trade as it occurred will not change.

    – Someone who uses data to guide their thinking adjusts their thinking when warranted by new and relevant data.

    – Stating that your opinion will not change implies that future information will offer nothing new or relevant, nor will it warrant an adjustment of your original position.

    – Let’s give that way of thinking a name: nirvana.

    – In nirvana, the only way to evaluate a trade is to use the information available when the trade was made; all future information is to be disregarded.

    – A GM in nirvana (let’s call him RS) wins/loses trades on the day they’re made; he doesn’t have to be concerned with the future performance of his team because that will have no impact on judging the quality of the trade; in nirvana, the trade is judged on the day it was made and the judgment is irrevocable.

    – Let’s say there’s a GM who doesn’t live in nirvana, let’s call him PC. His motivation is a little different. He wants to improve the expected future performance of his team. Because it’s an expectation and the future is uncertain, he knows he’s making a bet.

    – PC can’t know if he won or lost the trade on the day it was made. He made a bet based on the information he had at the time. Now he has to wait for more information (for the future to arrive) to see if the bet paid off. How long? A few games? One season? Two? Until a Cup win?

    – PC doesn’t have a fixed time horizon; he is always willing to adjust his position as new information arrives. He uses this new information to help him understand all over again how to improve the expected future performance of his team. That’s all he focuses on.

    – PC made a bet that trading a very good LW who was playing on the 2nd line for his team for a young RHD who was playing first pair for his trading partner would improve the future expected performance of his team. RS made the opposite bet (the LW would play on his first line).

    – I like PC over RS.

  18. Munny says:

    russ99,

    This is an awesome post and very closely reflects my own views on the issues addressed…

    Which of course is what makes it awesome, lol.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Georges:

    – I like PC over RS.

    Me too. 🙂

    I’ve mentioned a couple of times in this thread that my views on the trade won’t change but that doesn’t mean we are blind to what comes after. When we give our opinions on a trade, that (to me) would need an enormous amount of new information to change the historical view.

    That doesn’t mean the trade can’t work out for both sides (I think it can) or that Edmonton won’t win the deal (Larsson could in fact have a long career and Hall could fade away). That isn’t really the conversation though, because if Hall falters as a player or Larsson develops into a 28-minute a night complete defender, those things weren’t in play on the day of the trade.

    Hope that makes sense.

  20. Munny says:

    LMHF#1: I find the Hall-Larsson trade reaction just comical at this point.
    My only real point of contention was that based on values at the time of the deal, Chiarelli could have and should have gotten more. He doesn’t seem to get the additional pieces in trades though. You need a prospect here, a pick there.
    He couldn’t have insisted on the Devils including Pavel Zacha and a pick? Of course he could have. Doesn’t seem to be his approach though. Didn’t happen with Eberle either. I like the way baseball GMs do this. There’s an ace in everyone’s system somewhere.

    Not to pick on you Hemsky Fan… but your post is a nice summary of an argument many in the small minority that disapprove of the Hall trade make.

    My point is, you can’t possibly know what you say above to be true. You might hope it is true, but that’s meaningless. You have no idea of the offers Chia was competing against. None of us do. We can sit here and yammer away all we want that Hall for Larsson was an overpay but it’s just yelling into the wind. No one knows what the actual market price was for Larsson that day other than the actual parties involved.

    You can make indirect or circumstantial arguments, pointing to this trade or that trade in the past or present, and that’s the prerogative of any who criticize the deal. But those arguments aren’t especially convincing… they are still indirect or circumstantial arguments. There’s no possible way to freeze all the variables and compare economic decisions like this. It’s why economic modelling always fails, and why trusting central banks to know what they’re doing is colossally stupid.

    Sadly a vocal minority has been convinced by these indirect arguments and has stated they refuse to be swayed in their stance for any reason. And here we are, re-iterating a position, and an unwillingness to have an open mind on that position (not saying this is you), which really seems to make any further discussion of the trade pointless.

    Now if we knew what the market was that day, we could make a far better assessment. And if we had good ways we can trust to evaluate Dmen, that would help too.

  21. digger50 says:

    season not played: around

    Continuously slagging people is a sign of poor character

  22. Georges says:

    Lowetide: Me too.

    I’ve mentioned a couple of times in this thread that my views on the trade won’t change but that doesn’t mean we are blind to what comes after. When we give our opinions on a trade, that (to me) would need an enormous amount of new information to change the historical view.

    That doesn’t mean the trade can’t work out for both sides (I think it can) or that Edmonton won’t win the deal (Larsson could in fact have a long career and Hall could fade away). That isn’t really the conversation though, because if Hall falters as a player or Larsson develops into a 28-minute a night complete defender, those things weren’t in play on the day of the trade.

    Hope that makes sense.

    Maybe that sums it up. You need Larsson to become a 28-minute a night complete defender and for Hall to fade away for the Oilers to win the deal. You believe the future of 2015-16 Hall was worth one of 9 defensemen TOI seasons since 2005-06. You really, really like Hall. I’m cool.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Georges: Maybe that sums it up. You need Larsson to become a 28-minute a night complete defender and for Hall to fade away for the Oilers to win the deal. You believe the future of 2015-16 Hall was worth one of 9 defensemen TOI seasons since 2005-06. You really, really like Hall. I’m cool.

    Me too.

  24. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: Me too.

    If Hall falters as a player or Larsson develops into a 28-minute a night complete defender, those things weren’t in play on the day of the trade.

    -You don’t judge a trade on the day it happened based on assumptions about how each player is going to perform in the future, based on past-performance

    – You’ve done so many posts about looking at different trades: like the one when MacT traded down a bunch of times and you look at how it turns out

    – A trade isn’t won or lost on that day: I think there is something I’m missing when you say: “or that Edmonton won’t win the deal (Larsson could in fact have a long career and Hall could fade away)”

    – If the scenario you just presented happens, and you still maintain that it was a bad trade, I just don’t get what your point is then. If this happens, then it was a bad trade for NJ non? And you still would not change your mind?

  25. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: –
    – If the scenario you just presented happens, and you still maintain that it was a bad trade, I just don’t get what your point is then.If this happens, then it was a bad trade for NJ non? And you still would not change your mind?

    I am arguing that, on the day of the trade, Peter Chiarelli gave up too much. That won’t ever change because the moment has passed. He felt, I believe, he could lose the trade and win the war, and that may well happen.

    That doesn’t mean we don’t follow the trade after the fact and monitor the outcome. I don’t think these two things are difficult to contemplate.

  26. digger50 says:

    ashley:
    I think the fact that the Larsson trade continues to come up speaks volumes about the shifting view of this trade in terms of value.

    At the time of the trade, many were on board with “bad value deal for the Oilers”.There were a few who said “fair trade with upside to EDM, especially considering the contract” right away, and kudos to them because I suspect that is exactly the way this is going to go.

    Hall is a good hockey player, but I believe he was overrated by this fanbase and remains overrated by a few remaining supporters.Still, Hall is a good hockey player.

    However, would we trade our right handed 24 year old #1D on a sweetheart contract for Hall?Not a chance in hell.I think that says it all.Not a smart trade by NJ and it will only get worse.

    So you say.

    But I would make that trade. Larson isn’t really that good and can be replaced. Put Hamonic in his spot and Hall back on the roster and away we go.

    Ps: I’m so late to the party ….lol. Good thread today, livens up the off season a bit

  27. Richard S.S. says:

    All through the minors are Hockey Players with a dream of playing in the NHL. At some point in time, winning games becomes more important than actually teaching players. At some point after that, winning becomes everything and the only thing.

    At MLB, teams need to teach their players almost everything. At the High School and the College and the University levels Coaches keep their job by winning. Losing is not an option. Instruction is limited. MLB Teams have an AAA level, an AA level, an A+ level, an A level, an A- Level, 1 or 2 Rookie levels and 1 or 2 DSL/MSL/VSL(foreign country) teams. They are responsible for 200 to 250 or more players, some as young as 16, speaking little or no English. They usually survive all economics up- and down-turns that get thrown at them.

    The NHL Teams, on the other hand, can barely handle 50 players, and seldom get it right. Too much emphasis gets put on winning. A player is expected to know how to do everything despite little or no instruction. That is wrong. Until teaching them right becomes more important that winning, problem will exist.

  28. VOR says:

    I actually find it very hard to form an opinion on the Hall/Larsson trade. I like both players a lot which makes it difficult to have strong opinions either way. But more importantly while I can see exactly what Peter Chiarelli was thinking I can’t begin to fathom what Ray Shero was doing.

    As GMs they are somewhat similar in approach. At least based on their history. Each built a Stanley Cup champion one piece at a time more or less by trying many different players until they found the ones that fit. This takes remarkable patience and the ability to get rid of pieces you acquired that turned out to be mistakes. And of course each subsequently got fired.

    Edmonton’s GM was clearly trying to upgrade his defence. New Jersey’s on the other hand doesn’t seem to give a crap about the defensive side of the game. He is rolling through young talented forwards looking for ones that will be part of the team long term while apparently counting on all his NHL level D (Greene, Severson, Moore and Lovejoy) to play all 82 games and big minutes at that.

    Shero used his first three draft picks on centers even though he not only has two reasonably talented veterans but also 1 outstanding prospect and several good ones all fighting for ice time at the position. Not to mention huge holes on D. Then he acquires Marcus Johansson and Brian Boyle to clog the center position up even more.

    Based on Shero’s resume there is a plan. It just is hard to imagine what it might be. Right now I would say it seems to be have great goal tending and emerging forward depth, but to rely on a defence that is exceedingly thin. It looks a lot like a tank job but who knows.

    I don’t think it is possible, without knowing what the plan is to understand why Shero did the deal or what his long term plans for Hall might be. A lot of Hall’s future success or lack of success will come down to who he plays with. If he is on a line with Palmieri and Johansson that is one thing. If he is playing with Hischier and Zacha that is quite another, at least in the short term.

  29. Richard S.S. says:

    I can go into page after page of my Oilers’ fandom, so I’ll be brief. I saw the Oilers play before they were in the NHL and they were fun to watch. I stopped watch the few games I could when Wayne was sold. When I could watch again it was 2014. I’d watch Hall take the puck over the center line and skate around. He wouldn’t shoot often, he wouldn’t pass often, but when he invariably lost the puck he would skate of the ice for a line change while the puck went the other way. I saw this often, so that’s why I thought the Larsson acquisition was a huge win for this Team. As LT has said, our opinions are our opinions and should be respected as such.

  30. stevezie says:

    Lowetide,

    Well said, sir

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