BALANCE

I received an excellent email from Tempest the other day, it’s three-pronged and worth at least three posts. The area I would like to talk about today is balance, and want to begin with three paragraphs sent me the other day.

Balance of Positions

  • This is the topic you’re talking about most of the time when you’re writing about balance on the blog. Having the correct amount of players to fill a roster properly, with enough depth to cover injuries. There’s definite value in not requiring players to play out of position.

Balance of Playing Styles

  • This covers off the importance of having different types of players on the team. As fun as it would be to fill the team with explosive offensive talents, you still need players that can penalty kill. There are players that can do both and in a perfect world you would fill your team with as many of those types of players as possible (see: Team Canada at the Olympics), but for all intents and purposes in the NHL you will likely have to settle for some guys that do one better than the other.

Balance of Personalities

  • I work in an office where personalities are probably more important than talent. You can be the smartest person in the room, but if you have the personality of wet cardboard we’re going to struggle working together. Along the same vein, if we hire too many type-A personalities we’re going to have all sorts of problems from in-fighting to alienation of others. I’d much rather work with diverse group of people that get along with each other. That’s how we build our team, I can only guess that it’s an important factor when building a hockey team as well.

The third item is the one I’d like to spend a few minutes with this morning, because we cover the first two a lot on this blog. Tempest’s paragraph on personalities makes a lot of sense, and as someone who has worked in the same industry for 37 years I read it nodding my head over and over. One of the reasons I generally ignore discussing this area is there’s no way to know what happens behind a closed door. I can tell you what I think, but that’s not really knowledge. I read (on this blog and elsewhere) many posts claiming to know, but I don’t think there’s any way to actually know what goes on. I will guess that Connor McDavid is pleased with Ryan Strome’s arrival, that the room likes Eric Gryba and that Patrick Maroon is more likely to be re-signed than the other UFA’s next summer. That’s all based on guesswork and things I’ve heard (and you’ve heard the same things, maybe more). Is there value in knowing these things? Yes! Do we have the access to know? No. Not at all. It’s a difficult part of the conversation to have.

Which leads to my question: Do you believe the Edmonton Oilers traded Taylor Hall, at least in part, because of his A personality? Do you think the Oilers traded him to New Jersey to make the transition to McDavid as leader easier? My answer: I wouldn’t hazard a guess. Makes sense as a theory but there’s simply no way to make an educated guess.

PROJECTED ROSTER 2017-18

THINGS THAT MAKE YOU GO HMMM.

We’ve talked about this over the last few weeks, what Peter Chiarelli might be contemplating with those $5 million projected dollars of leftover cap room with Leon Draisaitl signed to $8 million. We talked about it yesterday, and I mentioned at that time (and believe now) there could be a trade. Now, if you read this blog, you know that July through June is ‘three-for-one trade’ season around here. Doubt that happens, but there does appear to be unfinished business at more than one NHL outpost. It seems there are other teams contemplating something large late July or early August.

  • Elliotte Friedman: “I get the impression that you’ve got Marc Bergevin sitting here with a lot of cap space and I think he’s sitting on something, or some ideas. And I’m not necessarily saying that he’s going to do something big, but I think he’s dreaming big.”
  • Source

Trade? I think so. Edmonton dealing with Montreal? Jeff Petry? Alex Galchenyuk? Brendan Gallagher? Montreal dealing with Edmonton? Nuge? Man, I don’t see it. I do believe the Oilers and Habs have room to wheel, if not with each other then elsewhere. Will they?

RUNNING RE

I will have posted most of the forwards by this time next week and will tackle the defensemen and goalies in August. A big trade now would screw over the RE numbers, so be warned that some of these totals would change in that case. Sorry for the unreadable graph, it looked good at midnight. Thanks to Digger 50 for the idea.

MAPLE LEAFS VERSUS OILERS

Michael Augello of The Sporting News has an interesting article out this week comparing the Toronto rebuild to the Oilers. The Maple Leafs young trio of brilliance (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander) grab all the headlines—and rightly so—but there are really good players across this roster. I specifically value Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov and defensemen like Jake Gardiner, Morgan Reilly and Nikita Zaitsev. Toronto also has some nice secondary talents like Martin Marincin, Connor Carrick, Connor Brown, Zach Hyman and Josh Leivo. I thought JVR and or Tyler Bozak would have been sent away for a RHD this summer but Lou is keeping his powder dry. Maybe they plan to fast track Timothy Liljegren (what a great pick at No. 17, I had him No. 5 overall) or maybe they’ll just be patient. If you’re Lou, getting a Stanley during Matthews entry-level deal is a thing worth pushing for, wonder how this turns out.

BALANCE

I have the photo. Had to check, it’s been so long since I found it thought maybe it had disappeared into the ether. As things stand today, I don’t think you’ll see the balance photo at the end of August (my plan has always been to publish as part of an RE final flourish) but who knows what tomorrow brings.

  • Goaltending: Brilliant starter, unproven backup
  • Defense: The young cluster (Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Benning) has brilliant potential and the veterans (Sekera, Russell, Gryba) have given the kids room enough to grow.
  • Forwards: Connor McDavid floats all boats and Leon Draisaitl may be able to drive his own line (we don’t know what we don’t know). Ryan Nugent-Hopkins could be a key performer in this group and strong seasons from Patrick Maroon and Milan Lucic are vital. The addition of  Jussi Jokinen was inspired, need another.

How close is this team to balance? I’ll say closer than any team since 2005-06 fall, that team lacking only a goaltender worthy of the roster in front of him.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Friiiday, we’re on the air at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Our weekly feature guest is in Edmonton, we’re going to hold onto him for two segments. We’ll chat Oilers Stanley horizon, memories, the sports television industry and his fantastic website.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. A big night at Commonwealth.
  • Derek Taylor, TSN. What a football game last night. Blue Bombers!
  • Dave Jamieson, TSN1260. Dave chats about the historic aspect of this evening’s game.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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190 Responses to "BALANCE"

  1. smellyglove says:

    Brilliant post, as usual LT. Agreed on it all.

    We’ll never ever know who gets along with who, and who gets exiled. No sense in even conjecturing.

    Also, LT and other wise posters — I would be keen to hear from you which NHL squads you feel do have ‘balance’. And, is balance necessary to win a cup?

    We are perpetually seeking the mythical B-word, but I wonder if getting into the playoffs and continuing with health, luck, and experience (in that order) trumps the ‘perfectly constructed’ team.

  2. speeds says:

    LT (or anyone):

    MTL has the cap room, and picks, and reportedly tried to trade for Draisaitl once already. Long term, Plekanec falls off the cap next summer, potentially clearing more room.

    Do you see them as a team potentially looking at a Draisaitl offer sheet? And if so, what would your take be as to why they haven’t done it already (assuming Draisaitl would be willing to sign one)?

  3. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    LT (or anyone):

    MTL has the cap room, and picks, and reportedly tried to trade for Draisaitl once already. Long term, Plekance falls off the cap next summer, potentially clearing more room.

    Do you see them as a team potentially looking at a Draisaitl offer sheet?And if so, what would your take be as to why they haven’t done it already (assuming Draisaitl would be willing to sign one)?

    I almost wrote about the Kessell to Toronto deal this morning, may do it tomorrow. That became a trade with OS hanging over it. Maybe something similar here?

  4. dustrock says:

    There was a rumor that Draisaitl had turned down a couple of offer sheets, I think they said around $7m or so.

    We never get to hear about the sheets that were offered and rejected.

    Given that Draisaitl just got a taste of the Conference Semis and performed exceedingly well under the spotlight, and seems to be part of a young core that enjoys hanging out, you’d have to think it would be a SIGNIFICANT overpay by another team to tempt him.

    Realistically, where is he going to have it better? There’s not many teams who could pay him enough and yet still be in the hunt for Lord Stanley.

    McDavid floats all boats, realizes dreams, turns water into wine.

  5. smellyglove says:

    speeds,

    If Leon signs an OS with the Habs, clearly a team in the decline, and for an amount close to what the Oilers would offer, I would perpetually curse the Big German. The team that drafted him, developed him, treated him well, gave him a taste of success early into his career. That’s got to be worth something.

  6. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT!. Three years ago, I posted in here talking to my smart hockey guy, who we would all know. He and talk Hockey from time to time, and I love hearing his insight as an attuned former player, and the dynamics you allude to that he talks about. Perception is reality, in hockey, just as it is in politics or work environment

    – His solution to improve the team, in am email to me was “Trade Hall”. When I reported that here, it was dismissed as poppy-cock, I was a liar, or that guy didn’t know what he was talking about.

    – What my guy was saying was all the thing you alluded to: personality type, leadership, perception, fitting in, etc. Another hockey guy told me that he was talking to MacT, who told him that Kruger “isn’t my guy” (i.e. he didn’t hire him) These things matter. I reported that as well.

    – For sure, no one can argue in my opinion that while the Hall trade was partly because he was the best player that got the team the best RHD, it was also because of the perception in hockey circles (including EDM once they got real management) of the “trade Hall” comment.

    – Don’t accuse me of saying I said that Hall was a cancer, or a bad character, etc: there is a “code” amongst Hockey players (that only Sean Avery has broke). Players, ex-players don’t talk specifically about their peers outside of the locker-room

    – So we will never know, but this was a hockey trade, and a hockey trade is more than the fancy stats coming in and out. It just is.

    – You are right LT we can never know, so its difficult to fully understand, but part of the equation , and to pretend or allude otherwise is not giving a fullsome analysis IMO…

  7. Oddspell says:

    I look at Montreal-Edmonton and I can’t see anything that makes sense given Bergevin’s position. I can’t see any player the Oilers would trade to Montreal for any player or combination that would result in Montreal needing so much cap space.

    That said, if we’re just talking about Montreal trade targets, Andrew Shaw seems like a good fit at 3C. Wish he was a bit cheaper though.

  8. N64 says:

    dustrock: There was a rumor that Draisaitl had turned down a couple of offer sheets, I think they said around $7m or so

    The 7×7 os rumor seemed very odd. Why would Drai sign that? Any GM that got him to sign that would be owed future considerations from Chia!

  9. N64 says:

    smellyglove: If Leon signs an OS with the Habs, clearly a team in the decline, and for an amount close to what the Oilers would offer, I would perpetually curse the Big German.

    No problem if someone offers a 7 year deal for close to the Oil offer. That’s doing the Oil a solid. Which is why a OS deal straight to UFA or a 1 year high priced deal to increase the sample size and the demand are 29’s real leverage.

  10. dustrock says:

    LT – on personalities, I know we don’t want to get into rumor mongering, but it seems that Hall has historically been passed over by the Canadian teams, despite the fact that he’s one of the best LW in the game.

    Maybe it’s a perceived lack of two-way play, but sometimes the selections of guys picked over him have been puzzling and you start to wonder how much it is this personality thing.

    There also have been comments by vets like Ference and Perron about practice habits and impliedly a lack of professionalism. Plus WaterBottleGate with Eakins, etc.

    Hall simply may not have been the “leader” they wanted him to be, and after years in the Pit, I’m not sure he could pick up the rest of the team and get out of the Pit.

    “I was in the Pit, you were in the Pit, we were all in the Piiiiit”. (Parks & Rec)

    The organization thought enough of him that they had McDavid stay with him during his rookie season, which in my mind shows really what they thought of Hall.

    On the other hand, maybe they thought McDavid was too polite and deferential to grab the bull by the horns if Hall, the older and more experienced player, was there.

    Every time we talk about personalities, I love to bring up the Blackhawks.

    Did Toews win Cups because he’s a great leader, or is Toews a great leader because he won Cups?

    Are Patrick Kane’s off-ice antics a huge distraction for the organization, or does it not matter because they’re winning?

    I’m pretty curious to see what happens with Kane as the Hawks start to decline.

  11. jm363561 says:

    LT, I have been enjoying this blog for around five years now and I have never seen such a masochistic streak in your posts. A few days ago we revisited the whole Hall / Larsson deal with a predictably explosive response.

    Now we have as Discussion Item 1 – Do you believe the Edmonton Oilers traded Taylor Hall, at least in part, because of his A personality? IMHO I believe it made the decision easier for Chia and, based on no evidence whatsoever, it affected the value he was able get for Hall.

    Of course a lot depends on your definition of A personality. I see Looch as an A personality (Sid, Getzlaf, Toews, would be other fantastic examples) – a leader in the best sense of the word. I did not see Hall this way – he was more Kane than Toews. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that).

  12. speeds says:

    smellyglove:
    speeds,

    If Leon signs an OS with the Habs, clearly a team in the decline, and for an amount close to what the Oilers would offer, I would perpetually curse the Big German. The team that drafted him, developed him, treated him well, gave him a taste of success early into his career. That’s got to be worth something.

    If it’s close, the Oilers will just match.

    Sakic signed an offer sheet with the Rangers, now he’s the GM. I think for most people, they would eventually get over it.

  13. speeds says:

    Lowetide: I almost wrote about the Kessell to Toronto deal this morning, may do it tomorrow. That became a trade with OS hanging over it. Maybe something similar here?

    What would a trade look like – I don’t think it would be just picks if the Oilers end up making a trade?

    What are you thinking? Drouin or Galchenyuk + picks/prospects/???

  14. season not played says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    When they won the McDavid lottery I remember telling my buddy I would blow it up and reconstruct the team properly around McDavid.

    Probably why I am such a fan of Chiarellis work.

  15. TO10801 says:

    I do wish we had more insight into the personality aspect of building a team. When you look at the Hall trade it would make sense if the oilers wanted to move out a strong personality to allow their young superstar to take over the leadership of the team. Then you bring in a quieter Larsson and Lucic, who understands McDavid is the guy on the team. From NJs perspective they don’t have a young player with strong leadership, so you add Hall. It definitely appears that constructing a team with the right personalities is something GMs consider.

    Also LT, I’m not all that opposed to having a lot of cap space heading into the season. This team cannot afford to have overages, as 850K (this years overage) is enough for one player. Having the flexibility will allow PC to add as much as he can when he knows who is likely to earn what bonuses. For example, if the bonuses are in check and you can add the Sedins or James Neal and Mike Green at the deadline, is that not worth making sure you have the space at the deadline?

  16. leadfarmer says:

    Best way to bury RE is to hide them behind a baby blue background. My retinas spontaneously combusted

  17. meanashell11 says:

    The Hall trade was a hockey trade, you did not need to move him because of personality or make room for McDavid. Gretz and Messier were fine together. All these type A’s seem to get with the program during the olympics.

  18. Jaxon says:

    Montreal and other trade targets:

    MTL
    seems like one of the best fits out there for both teams. Gallagher ($3.75M x 4) (from Edmonton) in MTL is a good fit, they need a #1,#2C and they have cap space to take on Nuge’s contract. Gallagher would be a great fit with his cheap contract for next 4 years, his volume shooting, need for a scoring RW, his gritty, pesky play, good speed and being from Edmonton. Near perfect fit.
    MIN
    would be a good fit as they have cap space and Nuge could end up as their 1st or 2nd line C. Coyle (3 x $3.2M) as a C/RW would be a great fit in Edmonton. He’s a Chiarelli-MacLellan type (big, tough, versatile CRW, scoring, shooting) and from Massachusetts so Chiarelli should be familiar with him. Koivu only has 1 year left and E Staal has 2, so Nuge could become their replacement and compete for a 1C job right off the bat (it should be a close competition).
    CBJ
    is a good fit, they have the cap space and Nuge would be their #1,#2 so Savard (4 x $4.25M) and Jenner (1 x $2.9M RFA) could be good options (Savard doesn’t save a lot of cap at 4.25M but he’d fell an important role). Jenner only has 1 year left but he is an RFA so still under control.
    CAR
    has numerous options in a trade for Nuge: Faulk (3 x $4.833M), Rask (5 x $4.0M), Van Riemsdyk (1 x $0.825M RFA) and Pesce (1 x $0.809M) all fill needs for Edmonton. CAR has the cap space and Nuge would fit in on one of the top 2 lines competing with J Staal and/or Rask (if he’s not involved in the trade). I tend to think acquiring Van Riesmdyk hints at maybe being open to trading Faulk or Pesce.
    VAN
    Gudbranson (1 x $3.5M UFA) is likely a deadline rental. His latest contract didn’t scream, “I want to stay here for a rebuild”, so Nuge is a huge overpay (unless they let Edmonton negotiate a new contract prior to trade). If not an earlier trade, then a deadline rental trade might work for a playoff run with the added benefit of being able to negotiate a new deal before he becomes a UFA next summer. Great 5-on-5 scoring last season albeit in a small sample size because of injury.
    PHI
    is also doubtful as they are pretty deep at C with Giroux, Couturier, Lehtera, Filpulla, and Nolan Patrick on the way, so Nuge won’t have much appeal for them, so Gudas (3 x $3.35M) is probably a no-go, although he’d be my number one target. He may have the highest value RD contract in the NHL. People don’t realize that he was one of the top primary points scorers at 5-on-5 last season. Has a reputation as a mean shutdown D.
    DET
    unfortunately, is in even worse cap hell than Edmonton, so the highly underrated and cheap Nick Jensen (2 x $0.812M UFA) won’t be possible. Also scored well at 5-on-5 primary pts last season in a top 4 role.
    PIT
    I also considered Nuge for Hagelin (2 x $4.0M) in PIT, they have the cap space but they need wingers not C, I don’t think they want to pay Nuge 6M as their 3rd C either, but Hagelin’s speed with McDavid could be pretty special.
    ANA
    Same goes for Silfverberg (2 x $3.75M) in ANA, not really a fit for them with their center depth.
    NYI
    Another Islanders trade: Nuge for Anders Lee (2 x 3.75M)? There may be some merit to that for both teams. Seems very unlikely, though. I think Nuge is a big overpay for Pulock, who hasn’t made fulltime roster yet. Mayfield may be a good gamble for way less than Nuge, maybe a late round pick?

  19. leadfarmer says:

    If Drai is asking for 9 per and even offer sheets are coming in at 7 per that should tell Drai about how crazy his request is.

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    season not played:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    When they won the McDavid lottery I remember telling my buddy I would blow it up and reconstruct the team properly around McDavid.

    Probably why I am such a fan of Chiarellis work.

    – Me too. The other truth about change in management regime is they will change personel

    – I have no respect for MacT’s body of work as GM: he was not qualified, he was the coach of a loser AHL team, and the only job he gets in NHL is the OBC: the only GM in history to go from another teams Farm team to almost-directly GM of another team. He was also a gutless leader, stubborn, over his head, falling for Dallas, skpe-firing Kruger after telling him he was going to get him help, no clue how bad his team was, etc

    – Now Chia comes in, Harvard educated, lawyer, toiled away and worked his way up management. He’s in the minority still of GM’s who are actually qualified beyond just being a former hockey player

    – Chia, like any new manager, is wont to get rid of a lot of the old-boys regime.

    – I’m sure Chia can’t stand that he’s got MacT + OBC sitting beside him, hovering around. But credit to Chia for not making noise, buying his time. He probably said what you said: “we need to get rid of the Austins”. OBC says no F-ing way, they are the dream.

    – So after a year, Chia says: “we are getting rid of some Austins”. OBC said no, but Chia bought currency, and time He trades Hall.

    – Now that Chia clearly won that trade (*intentional controversial remark*), he be like: “OK, I’m the man, I’m getting rid of more Steve Austins. Remember when I said we need to get rid of them”

    – God I hope MacT can man up and just leave. He’s a parasite (like a lot on un-qualified ex-players picking up checks in organizations), and you know he’s just itching for mistakes, to leak stuff to the press and put the knife in Chia’s back: that’s what all old management does if they don’t get turfed by the new guys. I guess I’d collect a free check too if I was MacT, but I don’t respect it.

    – By all accounts, he’s a great guy, and fun to hang around and smart, and redeemed himself big-time after some poor choices: I am not saying anything about the person. I’d gladly have some beers with him, talk shop, shoot the sh$t, and thank him for his incompetence resulting in CmD!

  21. Pouzar says:

    dustrock: Did Toews win Cups because he’s a great leader, or is Toews a great leader because he won Cups?

    3 years ago I called out a well known WPG media member for saying he would start a franchise with Toews over Crosby. Tweeted him from time to time about it but he never wavered. Toews over Crosby. it wasn’t until Crosby won #3 that he changed his mind after I called him out again. Kudos to him for even replying but come on man……..

  22. doritogrande says:

    Can’t comment on hockey. Still high on Bombers final 1:40 from last night.

    Carry on.

  23. Jaxon says:

    N64,

    Yup, agreed. I’m probably restating the obvious here.

    That is the sweet spot for the other team making the offer as they wouldn’t have to give up 4 1st round picks. But Leon likely wouldn’t sign it as it is lower than his likely offer from Edmonton (which most estimate $7.5 x 8 is the lowball offer and between $8 and $8.5 x 8 being the likely offer).

    7×7=49
    49/5=9.8
    9.8 is below the threshold of 9.814935 for four 1st round picks.

    Edmonton matches that for sure, as they will want four 1st rounders at least and that represents a discount on his expected contract

    I know it is a technicality, but the offer will be minimum 7,010,667.86 x 7 yrs (entices Edmonton with 4 first round picks).

    Then Edmonton might consider letting him go, but Draisaitl still won’t sign that. I think Edmonton will pay as high as 8.5 before considering letting him go for the 4 first rounders.

    And It would be great if Leon got that offer as it would help Edmonton set his price at 7.25M for 7 years, which would be a steal.

  24. notarealdoctor says:

    Things that make you go hmm….when Adam Henrique was quoted after Hall was traded to Jersey that “he hasn’t changed a bit” since junior (I may be paraphrasing). If Hall was the same kid at 24 that he was at 19…

  25. Bag of Pucks says:

    We can’t and likely shouldn’t speculate on the ‘personality’ factors, but optically it would certainly make sense if the org had decided that going forward they wanted to put the C on Connor and have the leadership component originate from him, and were concerned how Hall might handle that perceived slight and/or the leadership dynamic going forward.

    If anything, I think that speaks well of Hall in that he seemed clearly to be an A type that wanted to take the leadership reins and didn’t shy away from that responsibility, By contrast, RNH, Eberle and Yakupov should’ve theoretically been every bit as vital to the leadership of that particular core but from the limited pov we have, each of those individuals very much seemed more content to let others lead.

    Finally, while we don’t have the inside intel to make informed decisions on the personalities, internal dynamics, compatibility, etc. we do have eyes and can draw some conclusions based on their actions. For me, I was a big Hall backer but was greatly disappointed in his actions vs Kassian in the Devils’ game in Rogers. Turtling after a deliberate attempt to injury is, imo, one of the most egregious sins in hockey and I felt showed a decided lack of character on Hall’s part. At his core, I think he’s a good guy that wants to win and was frustrated with how it all played out (why was I the guy traded to a cellar dweller in the swamps of Jersey?), but there’s no doubt he sometimes wears his emotions on his sleeve and/or fails to exercise prudent judgement (Kassian butt end, water bottle incident, Glenn Anderson anecdote, etc.).

    For those reasons, I wish Hall well but it’s become easier over time to fully accept the trade and turn the page on his time with the Oil.

  26. Braden28 says:

    This article about Netflix’s culture is very applicable to any sports team (and this conversation).

    http://www.businessinsider.com/working-at-netflix-2016-8

    – “Netflix is famous for its unique company culture, which does not tolerate either failing employees or brilliant jerks.”

    – “Typically if even a single person doesn’t like you, it’s unlikely you’ll be hired.”

    I have no doubt that Hall’s personality played a role in him being traded, just like I am positive that Lucic’s personality played a role in his signing. Personality and culture matter.

  27. Scungilli Slushy says:

    For a while I thought Hall was honest, I suppose a straight shooter who answered directly, not in cliches like so many do, even thoughtful.

    But when I heard his comment

    “The stink is still there,” Hall said Sunday as the Oilers cleaned out their stalls after yet another losing season.

    “I’m very disappointed. Right now it’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel, I’m not going to lie.”

    I was quite surprised, and my first thought was he’s gone. Any time a player in any pro sport talks like that it’s usually over for them with that team. It is truly unprofessional to talk like that publicly, so negatively regardless of how you feel in the moment. It denigrates the team and everyone associated with it.

    The worst thing about the comment is as the team’s best player he was most responsible for the lousy result IMO. The fact he’s been griping long after the trade is quite unusual and to me says a lot about attitude. There’s being honest and then there is being selfish and immature.

    There were also spats that became public which should have stayed behind closed doors the prime example being Ference and the chirping on twitter. The team’s locker room issues were well known from many comments made by coaches and players current and former. This is not all on Hall or the players, the attitude started at the top, but the team’s results said it all and it needed to be fixed before improvement could happen.

    Katz needs to be commended for doing or allowing the structural changes that made the culture change possible, even though he created the mess in letting his buddies run the show. I have no idea if simply winning the lottery prompted it or there was pressure we don’t about on him but it happened and fast.

    The Oilers now are a very different personality as a team. Anybody who didn’t get 110% on board in play and talk (culture) has been moved out or down quickly. I believe this is exactly about building a culture and team first mentality that it takes to win in a sport more about team play than the other major NA sport.

    Chiarelli being smart wasn’t / isn’t going to simply dump a valuable player because he doesn’t like what they do, so the deal was a hockey trade for sure and that was the key piece in it. Still, there is a clear pattern of what is acceptable emerging and the team is pulling in one direction for the first time in a long time, so I’d say it’s working.

  28. flea says:

    If the Oilers are going to make a blockbuster trade with Montreal that involves Nuge, I think they gotta try and get Gallagher and Shaw out of there.

    Here is an attempt at the trade. I think the Oilers would probably have to add something else (a forward likely), or take something back from the Habs.

    I might include Sleppy in this trade instead of Benson to make it work.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/433575

  29. Georges says:

    Here’s who the Penguins had on D for the playoffs:

    Dumoulin (L) 21:59
    Hainsey (L) 21:06
    Maatta (L) 20:36
    Schultz (R) 19:44
    Daley (L) 19:06
    Cole (L) 18:50

    Depth

    Streit (L)
    Ruhwedel (R)

    I’m curious. Would their playoff roster get a balance photo?

  30. Georges says:

    Here’s where teams with Taylor Hall, type A leader, finished in the standings:

    2010-11 30
    2011-12 29
    2012-13 24
    2013-14 28
    2014-15 28
    2015-16 29
    2016-17 28

    Taylor Hall may be a fine hockey player who’s had the bad luck of playing on very bad hockey teams. We could leave it at that.

    But, that’s an extraordinary record for a type A leader, don’t you think? Don’t leaders wear the results of the organizations they lead? Or do they make excuses?

    If you were a GM who traded for Taylor Hall’s leadership, what does it say about your leadership? Well, I suppose you got what you wanted.

  31. 106 and 106 says:

    Georges,

    Their playoff roster would get a balance photo, not just because of their D, but because of the rest of the team.

    1C – Best Player in the Game Crosby.
    2C – Best Non Top 100 Player in the Game Malkin.
    3rd Line – Freaking Phil the Playoff Thrill Kessel.

    and their two goalies are both Stanley Cup Winning Champs.

    —-
    Looking at the Oilers Now:

    1C – Close, 2C – Drai (maybe?), 3rd Line – PJV?

    2 Goalies: ?

    Too many ???? for balance.

  32. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges,

    – Hey I’m still trying to digest LT’s assertion that the trade was lost on the day it occured, regardless of the performance of the players involved or teams going forward…

    – Presumably this is his stance for all trades: “the winner/loser of each trade is determined on day of the trade, based on past-performance. It’s wrong to evaluate based on future performance”

    – Hall might not have been part of the problem, but clearly he was part of the solution

  33. season not played says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Georges,

    Holy smokes guys, this is bordering on Blasphemy.

  34. McSorley33 says:

    There were also spats that became public which should have stayed behind closed doors the prime example being Ference and the chirping on twitter. The team’s locker room issues were well known from many comments made by coaches and players current and former. This is not all on Hall or the players, the attitude started at the top, but the team’s results said it all and it needed to be fixed before improvement could happen.
    ******************************************************************************************************
    Yep.

    The number of Dead messengers shot in this forum is staggering.

    Lots of vets ( yes, who were not good at hockey at the end ) with telling comments about the Oiler
    locker room.

    Then the list of Canadian coaches, etc…

    I wonder what Drew Doughty meant when he commented on the Oilers success last year::

    “Their top guys play defence now”

  35. Georges says:

    106 and 106,

    On paper, did PIT have as good a defense as any of the teams they faced in the playoffs? No.

    Did it matter? No.

    They won by being extremely good at the F and G positions and passable at the D position.

    Is that the blog’s idea of balance?

  36. YKOil says:

    With Montreal:

    Don’t see much for smaller trades.

    Mid-to-large you have Nuge for Gallagher (with Montreal throwing in a lot more given Nuge’s position, versatility and better scoring) as Gallagher is a legit RW who is cost controlled.

    A Drai trade is problematic as Montreal is out of worthwhile trade bait. Sergachev is gone and Pacioretty plays left wing (we have a few of those) and only has two years left on that deal (if there was 4 or 5 years left…). While Montreal’s 2017 draft class was good, those are far-away players so they don’t help now.

    Excepting Price, Montreal is far closer to a rebuild than it is to contending and there isn’t much there for the Oilers. Montreal has a lot of good players but not many that fill needs on the Oilers.

  37. Woogie63 says:

    When I think Type A personalities, I think of Mark Messier, Jeremy Roenick, PK Subban, Milan Lucic. Taylor was the face of an organization in a small, but hockey crazy market. I thought he grew more comfortable in the role … but

    After 6 years Taylor and the management could not drag the team into the play-offs. MacT, Tambo, long list of coaches and scouts were replaced, eventually you have to look at the players as the source of losing.

    IMO PC was not trading a personality he was getting +20 minute a night RHD

  38. Bank Shot says:

    The first real seeds of doubt about the old rebuild core happened during the 2013 lockout.

    Hall, Eberle, RNH, and Schultz all play in the AHL. They are probably 4 of the top 5 players in that league. Eberle ends up finishing 32nd in scoring at THE END OF THE SEASON despite playing 30 something games. Schultz finishes tied for first in D-scoring despite the same lack of games.

    Those guys rip the league a new one in terms of scoring, but their team was around .500 or maybe a little worse the whole time they were there. The team’s record actually improved once those guys left.

    We all know its a team game, but when you have 4 of the very best players in a league, your team should be nothing short of a powerhouse, and their team wasn’t. Excuses were made for the big four then, and many more afterwards.

    The legend of Taylor Hall was always bigger than his actual contributions on the ice. He’s poor defensively and that’s the only reason he keeps getting left off team Canada in my mind. Any personality things are overblown IMO.

  39. Oilers8833 says:

    TO10801,

    Here is where I think that analytics and old school, the eye test, whatever you want to call it diverge. You can’t really quantify group locker room, personality dynamics, gritensity with a anaylitic stat. You know that there is some value there because NHL management has used this to some extent since hockey became a sport…..but how much exactly does this play into wins and losses.

    I fall in the middle where I think analytics gives you a good idea of what players outcomes will be but, I do also think there is some value in the things that can’t be quantified by analytics. The Taylor Hall debate is so polarizing between the two factions because I think the arguement when it comes to him falls squarely between the two.

  40. season not played says:

    Bank Shot:
    The first real seeds of doubt about the old rebuild core happened during the 2013 lockout.

    Hall, Eberle, RNH, and Schultz all play in the AHL. They are probably 4 of the top 5 players in that league. Eberle ends up finishing 32nd in scoring at THE END OF THE SEASON despite playing 30 something games.Schultz finishes tied for first in D-scoring despite the same lack of games.

    Those guys rip the league a new one in terms of scoring, but their team was around .500 or maybe a little worse the whole time they were there. The team’s record actually improved once those guys left.

    We all know its a team game, but when you have 4 of the very best players in a league, your team should be nothing short of a powerhouse, and their team wasn’t. Excuses were made for the big four then, and many more afterwards.

    The legend of Taylor Hall was always bigger than his actual contributions on the ice. He’s poor defensively and that’s the only reason he keeps getting left off team Canada in my mind. Any personality things are overblown IMO.

    It was that the team got better after they left that was the tell for me.

    Not a very big leap to determine there was something wrong with “the core”.

  41. 106 and 106 says:

    Georges,

    The balance photo would be pre-season though; as injuries (Sekera) affect any lineup. That the D-Core could still be that good without Letang shows resilience.

  42. Pescador says:

    Hypothetically,
    let’s say we did have access to trade discussions within the war room as well as live cameras & mics set up inside the dressing room.
    Would that cause people to argue more or less?

  43. 106 and 106 says:

    season not played,

    “Those guys rip the league a new one in terms of scoring, but their team was around .500 or maybe a little worse the whole time they were there. The team’s record actually improved once those guys left.”

    I must have blocked this out of my memory.

    Sweet half-full rose-tinted glasses.

  44. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bank Shot,

    – Thanks for the reminder of that, such a good point.

    – It was bad luck that none of our picks were generation ones: oh wait: then we got McD:

    – Conner Fu$king Mc Big Daddy Conner is on our team for the next 10 years BABY!

  45. Ducey says:

    We have been thru the Hall trade a million times.

    I don’t think it had much to do with his sideburns. It had more to do with the fact the Oilers had no RHD. Talk about lack of balance.

    Chia was going hard after a RHD who could play top pairing. He was obviously in on Subban (until CLB took Dubois) and tried to land Hamonic (Snow was looking for too much, and wound up getting too much, which likely was less than he was seeking in 2016), and brought in Demers for the Lucic tour. Demers walked away for whatever reason. There were rumours about Barrie. COL didn’t trade him and seems unable to trade anyone unless they get a massive overpay – to the point where they are in a showdown over Duchene, that is costing them other opportunities. They were also caught up in the Sakic v Roy battle for control.

    We know too from rumours that Chia was looking to use the Nuge or Eberle as the collateral. Obviously, they were not worth enough to land a young, cost controlled, top pairing RHD.

    People in these parts would have loved Hall, Dubois, Nurse (or maybe Leon) + for Subban at the time. In retrospect, having Subban (at $9 million) in addition to McDavid ($12.5 M) and Leon ($8 M) would have severely blown the budget going forward.

    Critics of the trade have consistently focused on the fact Hall > Larssen in terms of fancies. They have consistently ignored factors like alternatives, the circumstances, and frankly, reality.

    Even in retrospect I find it hard to see how you criticize the deal. The lower cost alternatives (Demers, Hamonic, Barrie) all had crappy years and would not have been able to play top minutes for the Oilers.

    On the other hand Larssen did very well, and filled a massive hole. And Maroon/ Lucic made up for the loss of Hall on LW: Balance

  46. Thinker says:

    Positive Hall’s personality got him moved. Nobody touches lowes jersey for forever, then as soon as Hall is gone a PTO gets it. Chiarelli talked all summer about a culture change and only made two moves (Yak, Hall) that actually moved guys out. One or the other if not both were deemed problems by upper management.

  47. Pescador says:

    Georges:
    Here’s where teams with Taylor Hall, type A leader, finished in the standings:

    2010-11 30
    2011-12 29
    2012-13 24
    2013-14 28
    2014-15 28
    2015-16 29
    2016-17 28

    Taylor Hall may be a fine hockey player who’s had the bad luck of playing on very bad hockey teams. We could leave it at that.

    But, that’s an extraordinary record for a type A leader, don’t you think? Don’t leaders wear the results of the organizations they lead? Or do they make excuses?

    If you were a GM who traded for Taylor Hall’s leadership, what does it say about your leadership? Well, I suppose you got what you wanted.

    NJ needed scoring,
    Stop.
    EDM needed defence,
    Stop.
    Even if there were extenuating circumstances, WTF is the point in endlessly debating it?

  48. dustrock says:

    Thinker:
    Positive Hall’s personality got him moved. Nobody touches lowes jersey for forever, then as soon as Hall is gone a PTO gets it. Chiarelli talked all summer about a culture change and only made two moves (Yak, Hall) that actually moved guys out. One or the other if not both were deemed problems by upper management.

    Might be a factor, but Shero also said the only non-McDavid player he’d trade Larsson for is Hall, so that might have helped Chia make the difficult decision, but I don’t think he was leading with “I’d like to trade Hall!”

  49. russ99 says:

    I don’t see Montreal in on Nuge, they are looking for a more big physical complete center from the Habs fans I’ve listened to, hence the push for Leon in the Subban negotiations

    While Toronto has an easier path to the playoffs in the East than we do/did, they’re much further from the balance photo than we are. They may sneak in this year, but unless they get lucky, I don’t see a cup from them in Mathews’ ELC with the Pens and Caps (and hopefully us) in the way.

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Me too.The other truth about change in management regime is they will change personel

    – I have no respect for MacT’s body of work as GM: he was not qualified, he was the coach of a loser AHL team, and the only job he gets in NHL is the OBC: the only GM in history to go from another teams Farm team to almost-directly GM of another team.He was also a gutless leader, stubborn, over his head, falling for Dallas, skpe-firing Kruger after telling him he was going to get him help, no clue how bad his team was, etc

    – Now Chia comes in, Harvard educated, lawyer, toiled away and worked his way up management.He’s in the minority still of GM’s who are actually qualified beyond just being a former hockey player

    – Chia, like any new manager, is wont to get rid of a lot of the old-boys regime.

    – I’m sure Chia can’t stand that he’s got MacT + OBC sitting beside him, hovering around.But credit to Chia for not making noise, buying his time.He probably said what you said: “we need to get rid of the Austins”.OBC says no F-ing way, they are the dream.

    – So after a year, Chia says: “we are getting rid of some Austins”.OBC said no, but Chia bought currency, and timeHe trades Hall.

    – Now that Chia clearly won that trade (*intentional controversial remark*), he be like: “OK, I’m the man, I’m getting rid of more Steve Austins.Remember when I said we need to get rid of them”

    – God I hope MacT can man up and just leave.He’s a parasite (like a lot on un-qualified ex-players picking up checks in organizations), and you know he’s just itching for mistakes, to leak stuff to the press and put the knife in Chia’s back: that’s what all old management does if they don’t get turfed by the new guys.I guess I’d collect a free check too if I was MacT, but I don’t respect it.

    – By all accounts, he’s a great guy, and fun to hang around and smart, and redeemed himself big-time after some poor choices: I am not saying anything about the person.I’d gladly have some beers with him, talk shop, shoot the sh$t, and thank him for his incompetence resulting in CmD!

    Awesome post, totally agree. Don’t forget contract negotiations, that’s were MacT being in over his head really came through.

    Don’t see why moving away from the Austins (and Pouliot) are in question.

    Chia and McLellan have past history and a track record of success,and neither have anything in that track record about three offensive forwards on the rush doing whatever they want to score as many goals as possible.

    Once Nicholson was brought in to legitimize hockey ops and run things, that MacT dream was dead.

  50. godot10 says:

    Pouzar: 3 years ago I called out a well known WPG media member for saying he would start a franchise with Toews over Crosby. Tweeted him from time to time about it but he never wavered. Toews over Crosby. it wasn’t until Crosby won #3 that he changed his mind after I called him out again. Kudos to him for even replying but come on man……..

    The Bylsma cloud hung over Crosby for a long time. He looked to be the NHL’s Peyton Manning. Now he can win championships with a subpar NHL defense behind him. Toews lucked into Quenneville…and they are sort of like Brady and Belichek.

    Let’s hope the McLellan cloud doesn’t hang over McDavid.

  51. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    Finally, while we don’t have the inside intel to make informed decisions on the personalities, internal dynamics, compatibility, etc. we do have eyes and can draw some conclusions based on their actions. For me, I was a big Hall backer but was greatly disappointed in his actions vs Kassian in the Devils’ game in Rogers. Turtling after a deliberate attempt to injury is, imo, one of the most egregious sins in hockey and I felt showed a decided lack of character on Hall’s part. At his core, I think he’s a good guy that wants to win and was frustrated with how it all played out (why was I the guy traded to a cellar dweller in the swamps of Jersey?), but there’s no doubt he sometimes wears his emotions on his sleeve and/or fails to exercise prudent judgement (Kassian butt end, water bottle incident, Glenn Anderson anecdote, etc.).

    Hall didn’t turtle. Kassian knocked him completely off-balance with his first punch. It was a one punch fight. It would be insanity for a non-fighter like Hall to try to recover and fight back against a heavyweight after having been obliterated with the first punch.

  52. linkfromhyrule says:

    The trade wasn’t for personality. It was for need. Pretty sure Chia would have happily kept Hall if he could have. The other Austin’s just don’t have the value, plus Chia had the Lucic-itch (Lucitch?)

    Regarding Hall’s culpability in the Oilers not making the playoff during his tenure, I highly doubt even Mcdavid could have dragged the Oilers of 2011-2015 into the playoffs. Blaming the best player on a bad team for losing is one of the oldest sports fallacies around. The bottom six, defense, and goalies were a steaming pile of s**t but only the best player is blamed for not making the playoffs. Makes sense.

    “I strapped my best draft horse and five 3-legged horses to a 300,000# boat anchor, but they couldn’t pull it. Stupid draft horse, guess I’m going to have to take it out back and put it down.”

    It isn’t Hall’s fault the Oilers had zero depth, bad coaching, below replacement level D, awful goaltending, non-stop injuries, and to top it off a management team too incompetent to even correctly identify the myriad problems. Tambo and MacT are some of the worst GM’s of the modern era.

    In hockey, like other team sports, the team is only as strong as the weakest link. Edmonton was almost exclusively weak links outside the top line during Hall’s time here. How many actual top pairing D did we have during Hall’s time with the team? Pretty sure it’s close to zero.

    Then, suddenly, when the bottom six, defense, and goaltending is the best it’s been in 10 years and we make the playoffs, it’s because the culture has changed. It isn’t. It’s because the team around Mcdavid isn’t a steaming pile of s**t.

    To suggest that Hall, who is only one player out of 18 dressing each night, should be able to overcome the weakness of 12 or so other players is just silly.

    And on top of this, he never requested a trade and still gave a s**t when he had very little reason to. The nerve of this guy.

    Management though? They somehow managed to simultaneously be the reason the team was terrible and the reason he was traded. Still employed too!

  53. Oilers8833 says:

    Georges,

    While I think there is some debate to be had about Hall not being the greatest of locker room influences or having questionable leadership qualities, anyone who thinks that Hall was the reason the Oilers sucked for the 6 years he was with the team is way off base.

    I think we can both agree the AHL defense and the Mickey Mouse management team were about 98% percent of that problem and the Eberle’s, Halls and soon to be Nuge’s are probably being blamed for an unfair amount of blame for the decade of darkness.

  54. Thinker says:

    dustrock: Might be a factor, but Shero also said the only non-McDavid player he’d trade Larsson for is Hall, so that might have helped Chia make the difficult decision, but I don’t think he was leading with “I’d like to trade Hall!”

    I didn’t mean to suggest it was the primary reason. I think it was definitely a contributing factor though.

  55. godot10 says:

    Bank Shot:
    The first real seeds of doubt about the old rebuild core happened during the 2013 lockout.

    Hall, Eberle, RNH, and Schultz all play in the AHL. They are probably 4 of the top 5 players in that league. Eberle ends up finishing 32nd in scoring at THE END OF THE SEASON despite playing 30 something games.Schultz finishes tied for first in D-scoring despite the same lack of games.

    Those guys rip the league a new one in terms of scoring, but their team was around .500 or maybe a little worse the whole time they were there. The team’s record actually improved once those guys left.

    We all know its a team game, but when you have 4 of the very best players in a league, your team should be nothing short of a powerhouse, and their team wasn’t. Excuses were made for the big four then, and many more afterwards.

    The legend of Taylor Hall was always bigger than his actual contributions on the ice. He’s poor defensively and that’s the only reason he keeps getting left off team Canada in my mind. Any personality things are overblown IMO.

    The reason the Barons were worse at the start of the season than at the end is that they were starting 3 rookie defensemen (in their 1st prof season), and Colton Teubert and Alex Plante, the veteran D who were supposed to carry the load, absolutely s#$% the bed.

    And it took time for Nelson to fix the D after the putrid play of Teubert and Plante. But they eventually found minor league vets to fill the gap, and the rookies, including Marincin, Fedun, and Davidson, began rocking it in the second half.

    Plus, Arcobello went supernova, and Lander found his game.

  56. Oilers8833 says:

    This….exactly this!

    linkfromhyrule:
    The trade wasn’t for personality. It was for need. Pretty sure Chia would have happily kept Hall if he could have. The other Austin’s just don’t have the value, plus Chia had the Lucic-itch (Lucitch?)

    Regarding Hall’s culpability in the Oilers not making the playoff during his tenure, I highly doubt even Mcdavid could have dragged the Oilers of 2011-2015 into the playoffs. Blaming the best player on a bad team for losing is one of the oldest sports fallacies around. The bottom six, defense, and goalies were a steaming pile of s**t but only the best player is blamed for not making the playoffs. Makes sense.

    “I strapped my best draft horse and five 3-legged horses to a 300,000# boat anchor, but they couldn’t pull it. Stupid draft horse, guess I’m going to have to take it out back and put it down.”

    It isn’t Hall’s fault the Oilers had zero depth, bad coaching, below replacement level D, awful goaltending, non-stop injuries, and to top it off a management team too incompetent to even correctly identify the myriad problems. Tambo and MacT are some of the worst GM’s of the modern era.

    In hockey, like other team sports, the team is only as strong as the weakest link. Edmonton was almost exclusively weak links outside the top line during Hall’s time here. How many actual top pairing D did we have during Hall’s time with the team? Pretty sure it’s close to zero.

    Then, suddenly, when the bottom six, defense, and goaltending is the best it’s been in 10 years and we make the playoffs, it’s because the culture has changed. It isn’t. It’s because the team around Mcdavid isn’t a steaming pile of s**t.

    To suggest that Hall, who is only one player out of 18 dressing each night, should be able to overcome the weakness of 12 or so other players is just silly.

    And on top of this, he never requested a trade and still gave a s**t when he had very little reason to. The nerve of this guy.

    Management though? They somehow managed to simultaneously be the reason the team was terrible and the reason he was traded. Still employed too!

  57. Pescador says:

    godot10: The Bylsma cloud hung over Crosby for a long time.He looked to be the NHL’s Peyton Manning.Now he can win championships with a subpar NHL defense behind him.Toews lucked into Quenneville…and they are sort of like Brady and Belichek.

    Let’s hope the McLellan cloud doesn’t hang over McDavid.

    #thoroughlymediocrecloud

  58. Professor Q says:

    godot10: Hall didn’t turtle.Kassian knocked him completely off-balance with his first punch.It was a one punch fight.It would be insanity for a non-fighter like Hall to try to recover and fight back against a heavyweight after having been obliterated with the first punch.

    You must have not been watching the series of events then.

  59. LoDog says:

    godot10: Hall didn’t turtle.Kassian knocked him completely off-balance with his first punch.It was a one punch fight.It would be insanity for a non-fighter like Hall to try to recover and fight back against a heavyweight after having been obliterated with the first punch.

    Come on that was the biggest cowardly turtle job ever.

  60. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Oilers8833:
    Georges,

    While I think there is some debate to be had about Hall not being the greatest of locker room influences or having questionable leadership qualities, anyone who thinks that Hall was the reason the Oilers sucked for the 6 years he was with the team is way off base.

    I think we can both agree the AHL defense and the Mickey Mouse management team were about 98% percent of that problem and the Eberle’s, Halls and soon to be Nuge’s are probably being blamed for an unfair amount of blame for the decade of darkness.

    – I tend to see your point. But that doesn’t jive with the narrative of Hall specifically IMO

    – Cherry-pick some stats, but he didn’t push the team to great heights through actual results: that’s Georges point I think.

    – Taylor Hall’s best season in the last three, was only the 15th best points season amongst LW

    – Taylor Hall was the 14th best LW in points in the last 3 years (and 24th in goals)

    – So sure he was the best player we had in the dark years, and he’s a pretty good winger. But you can’t call him a river-pusher if his team sucked so bad (and his new team sucked). Results matter

    – CmD is a river pusher. Hall is a very good winger IMO

    – You can’t call him an effective leader, if the teams he lead for 6 years sucked: results matter

    – There is a lot of yeah buts with Hall: but over long long periods of time, he is who he is, and the team he lead is who they were.

    – If he posted better results (and better “intangibles”), he would still be here IMO

    P.S. – it was a big tell that he was never made Captain

  61. Pescador says:

    Pouzar: 3 years ago I called out a well known WPG media member for saying he would start a franchise with Toews over Crosby. Tweeted him from time to time about it but he never wavered. Toews over Crosby. it wasn’t until Crosby won #3 that he changed his mind after I called him out again. Kudos to him for even replying but come on man……..

    He had the courage of his convictions.
    albeit misplaced convictions

  62. Georges says:

    106 and 106:
    Georges,

    The balance photo would be pre-season though; as injuries (Sekera) affect any lineup. That the D-Core could still be that good without Letang shows resilience.

    Didn’t know that about the balance photo. It’s only pre-season?

  63. GCW_69 says:

    Georges:
    Here’s where teams with Taylor Hall, type A leader, finished in the standings:

    2010-11 30
    2011-12 29
    2012-13 24
    2013-14 28
    2014-15 28
    2015-16 29
    2016-17 28

    Taylor Hall may be a fine hockey player who’s had the bad luck of playing on very bad hockey teams. We could leave it at that.

    But, that’s an extraordinary record for a type A leader, don’t you think? Don’t leaders wear the results of the organizations they lead? Or do they make excuses?

    If you were a GM who traded for Taylor Hall’s leadership, what does it say about your leadership? Well, I suppose you got what you wanted.

    Marcel Dionne missed the playoffs his first 4 seasons, and 10 of his 19 years in the NHL, in an era when almost everyone got in. As near as I can see he only made it to the second round 3 times in 18 years and never past that. He also scored 1711 points and was one heck of a hockey player. Perhaps Hall is a modern day Dionne?

  64. season not played says:

    godot10: The reason the Barons were worse at the start of the season than at the end is that they were starting 3 rookie defensemen (in their 1st prof season), and Colton Teubert and Alex Plante, the veteran D who were supposed to carry the load, absolutely s#$% the bed.

    And it took time for Nelson to fix the D after the putrid play of Teubert and Plante.But they eventually found minor league vets to fill the gap, and the rookies, including Marincin, Fedun, and Davidson, began rocking it in the second half.

    Plus, Arcobello went supernova, and Lander found his game.

    I think the take away from this is more that the group appeared to be playing to put up numbers and not playing the kind of hockey it takes to win. Something they could also be accused of at the NHL level.

    I seem to remember the Barons that year being on the wrong end of a lot of high scoring games.

  65. Scungilli Slushy says:

    dustrock: Might be a factor, but Shero also said the only non-McDavid player he’d trade Larsson for is Hall, so that might have helped Chia make the difficult decision, but I don’t think he was leading with “I’d like to trade Hall!”

    I find the narrative of the teams around the trade hard to believe. Larsson was not well regarded when he was traded. Remember Danyko defending him and Scneider’s comments?

    Larsson was condsidered by many to be looking like a bust given his draft # and pre draft rep. Last season changed that rep and he found offense, all not a given on the day of the trade. Which is why it wasn’t good value for Edmonton. Hall was considered in a higher order than Larsson.

    I find it hard to buy that Hall was the only offense they would take for an iffy player the hadn’t had much faith in with Severson emerging. Maybe Shero knew he had leverage because Chia had been shopping Hall for at least 6 months as reported in many places and when the draft passed with no deal he knew he had the upper hand.

  66. jtblack says:

    Here’s where teams with Taylor Hall, type A leader, finished in the standings:

    2010-11 30
    2011-12 29
    2012-13 24
    2013-14 28
    2014-15 28
    2015-16 29
    2016-17 28

    When ppl point to the Oilers Improvement after the Hall departure, McD is the main factor. I have to agree with this. Would the team have done well with Hall / Demers? Probably.

    The interesting part is NJ rinished 20th in the League in 2016. Trade for Hall and got 14 less points and finished 28th.

    The comments both ways are excellent.

  67. GCW_69 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I tend to see your point.But that doesn’t jive with the narrative of Hall specifically IMO

    – Cherry-pick some stats, but he didn’t push the team to great heights through actual results:that’s Georges point I think.

    – Taylor Hall’s best season in the last three, was only the 15th best points season amongst LW

    – Taylor Hall was the 14th best LW in points in the last 3 years (and 24th in goals)

    – So sure he was the best player we had in the dark years, and he’s a pretty good winger.But you can’t call him a river-pusher if his team sucked so bad (and his new team sucked).Results matter

    – CmD is a river pusher.Hall is a very good winger IMO

    – You can’t call him an effective leader, if the teams he lead for 6 years sucked: results matter

    – There is a lot of yeah buts with Hall: but over long long periods of time, he is who he is, and the team he lead is who they were.

    – If he posted better results (and better “intangibles”), he would still be here IMO

    P.S. – it was a big tell that he was never made Captain

    Mark Messier missed the playoffs his last 7 straight seasons. He has a leadership trophy named after him. Sometimes players are just in bad situations.

  68. YKOil says:

    GCW_69: Marcel Dionne missed the playoffs his first 4 seasons, and 10 of his 19 years in the NHL, in an era when almost everyone got in.As near as I can see he only made it to the second round 3 times in 18 years and never past that.He also scored 1711 points and was one heck of a hockey player.Perhaps Hall is a modern day Dionne?

    This. Hall isn’t McDavid or Crosby (who can, arguably, carry a team by themselves) and he isn’t even Dionne (his vision on the ice was sublime) but he is/was a hell of a player here. Easily the best player on the team and usually one of the two or three best players on the ice game-in-and-game-out.

    Bad defense and bad management KILL teams and damage good, and even great, players.

    To not recognize that and lay the blame at Hall’s feet speaks to ‘your’ credibility and integrity and not his.

    The best claim one can make, and still retain a semblance of integrity as a poster (imo), is to say that Hall wasn’t as good as we’d hoped, and wasn’t as good as the Oilers needed him to be GIVEN how dreadfully we needed a true hockey-Jesus and how poorly this team was manned and operated.

    The coke machine(s) fiasco alone was enough to sabotage this team and put play-off races in doubt simply because it compromised the depth on the team – but that was only one, relatively, small problem with this team.

    I basically stopped blogging because the management of the Oilers was so bad (the quality of my posts began to mirror the quality of the team). Hall is/was not the problem here.

  69. Oilers8833 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I think that while very good, Hall is not generational and I would argue not even elite (at least the last two years). I agree with Georges that Hall wasn’t good enough to take the team to new heights, I guess what I’m saying is that isn’t on him, its more reflective of the poor quality of the team around him.

    To say Hall wasn’t good enough to drag a bad team to the playoffs isn’t the narrative that we should be discussing. I think even McDavid and his generational talents would be very hard pressed to take any of the teams that Hall was on in the playoffs. When the ghost of Ryan Whitney and Jeff Petry were far and away your best dmen and Ben Scrivens and Victor Fasth are your goalies, there are much bigger problems than Hall to worry about.

  70. Georges says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I find the narrative of the teams around the trade hard to believe. Larsson was not well regarded when he was traded. Remember Danyko defending him and Scneider’s comments?

    Larsson was condsidered by many to be looking like a bust given his draft # and pre draft rep. Last season changed that rep and he found offense, all not a given on the day of the trade. Which is why it wasn’t good value for Edmonton. Hall was considered in a higher order than Larsson.

    I find it hard to buy that Hall was the only offense they would take for an iffy player the hadn’t had much faith in with Severson emerging. Maybe Shero knew he had leverage because Chia had been shopping Hall for at least 6 months as reported in many places and when the draft passed with no deal he knew he had the upper hand.

    If Shero didn’t know what he had in Larsson at the end of the 15-16 season, he wasn’t doing his job as a GM. But, then again, by trading Larsson for Hall, he wasn’t doing his job as a GM either. So, yeah… Crosby and Malkin, 2 of the top 3 players of their generation, win just one Cup with Shero as their GM. No more Shero. PIT dynasty.

  71. Bank Shot says:

    linkfromhyrule:
    “I strapped my best draft horse and five 3-legged horses to a 300,000# boat anchor, but they couldn’t pull it. Stupid draft horse, guess I’m going to have to take it out back and put it down.”

    It isn’t Hall’s fault the Oilers had zero depth, bad coaching, below replacement level D, awful goaltending, non-stop injuries, and to top it off a management team too incompetent to even correctly identify the myriad problems. Tambo and MacT are some of the worst GM’s of the modern era.

    In hockey, like other team sports, the team is only as strong as the weakest link. Edmonton was almost exclusively weak links outside the top line during Hall’s time here. How many actual top pairing D did we have during Hall’s time with the team? Pretty sure it’s close to zero.

    Lets not even talk about playoffs. The only time the Oilers finished better than 28th while Hall was here was the lockout season in 2013. They were trending down and likely would have finished in the basement that season as well.

    Now the surrounding cast was poor no question, but if the core of that team was even average to above average surely the Oilers could have finished in 25th or 26th or even 24th one of those seasons.

    It’s not like the Oilers had the only crappy roster in the league. There were lots of crappy teams during the time period of 2011-2015 and the Oilers consistently out crapped them all.

    The fact that Hall, Eberle, RNH, and Schultz were our best players was surely part of the problem.

    That wouldn’t have been a playoff team with better depth players because the key players weren’t good enough.

  72. Thinker says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I find the narrative of the teams around the trade hard to believe. Larsson was not well regarded when he was traded. Remember Danyko defending him and Scneider’s comments?

    Larsson was condsidered by many to be looking like a bust given his draft # and pre draft rep. Last season changed that rep and he found offense, all not a given on the day of the trade. Which is why it wasn’t good value for Edmonton. Hall was considered in a higher order than Larsson.

    I find it hard to buy that Hall was the only offense they would take for an iffy player the hadn’t had much faith in with Severson emerging. Maybe Shero knew he had leverage because Chia had been shopping Hall for at least 6 months as reported in many places and when the draft passed with no deal he knew he had the upper hand.

    Larsson’s offense his last two years in new jersey were basically the same as this year. He had been considered a bust about 2 years prior to the trade, when he started trending up. We have reports of Chiarelli talking to absolutely everyone about defensemen. Like it or not, that was all Hall could get. Keeping in mind he was shit the back half of the season, and hasn’t been anywhere close to his lovkout year performance.

    For a player who gets as many scoring chances as he does, and who has a high corsi, he has been incredibly mediocre (among top line wingers) the last 3 seasons. At some point we can’t just chalk that up to luck.

  73. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: The reason the Barons were worse at the start of the season than at the end is that they were starting 3 rookie defensemen (in their 1st prof season), and Colton Teubert and Alex Plante, the veteran D who were supposed to carry the load, absolutely s#$% the bed.

    And it took time for Nelson to fix the D after the putrid play of Teubert and Plante.But they eventually found minor league vets to fill the gap, and the rookies, including Marincin, Fedun, and Davidson, began rocking it in the second half.

    Plus, Arcobello went supernova, and Lander found his game.

    When you have the best four players in the league, you should be able to make up for 2 poor players.

    Look at Chicago finish top 3 in the West year after year with complete no ones in their D-core. Seabrook carried Gustafsson around for 40+ games and then Erik was demoted to the AHL next season.

    The Oilers former core couldn’t carry others.

    Hall was the best of the bunch, but he’s not a top three player on a championship team.

  74. Georges says:

    Bank Shot: Lets not even talk about playoffs. The only time the Oilers finished better than 28th while Hall was here was the lockout season in 2013. They were trending down and likely would have finished in the basement that season as well.

    Now the surrounding cast was poor no question, but if the core of that team was even average to above average surely the Oilers could have finished in 25th or 26th or even 24th one of those seasons.

    It’s not like the Oilers had the only crappy roster in the league. There were lots of crappy teams during the time period of 2011-2015 and the Oilers consistently out crapped them all.

    The fact that Hall, Eberle, RNH, and Schultz were our best players was surely part of the problem.

    That wouldn’t have been a playoff team with better depth players because the key players weren’t good enough.

    Nods.

    Once Nuge and Ebs got to the playoffs, on a team that had fixed its defense problems and had an above the fold goalie, they scored 0 goals in 13 games and were playing sort of 4th line minutes. If we had a whole bunch of problems outside the core that were the real reason for failure, why was the core not competitive once the other problems were largely fixed? It is very hard to keep pulling bottom 3 finishes and argue some part of the team that was a constant through that time is exempt from blame.

    Replace CMD with Hall on this team. Playoffs?

  75. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: Hall didn’t turtle.Kassian knocked him completely off-balance with his first punch.It was a one punch fight.It would be insanity for a non-fighter like Hall to try to recover and fight back against a heavyweight after having been obliterated with the first punch.

    Buttending an opponent in the face and then refusing to answer the bell when he wants to drop the gloves is turtling.

    Regardless of whether you want to label it turtling, sticking your former junior teammate in the face off the faceoff? Not the classiest move a player can make.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAhVWf3jUEk

  76. stush18 says:

    IM amazed at how civil this place has been lately. Unless LT is spamming the delete button like mad. Lol

    Good convo. I think the trade was about filling a need, but Chiarelli had no qualms about it and was able to do it easily knowing lucic was here

  77. Professor Q says:

    And let’s not forget Kovalchuk.

    Only his third real shot at playoffs and he captains his team to the Stanley Cup Finals.

  78. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – God I hope MacT can man up and just leave. He’s a parasite (like a lot on un-qualified ex-players picking up checks in organizations), and you know he’s just itching for mistakes, to leak stuff to the press and put the knife in Chia’s back: that’s what all old management does if they don’t get turfed by the new guys. I guess I’d collect a free check too if I was MacT, but I don’t respect it.

    – By all accounts, he’s a great guy, and fun to hang around and smart, and redeemed himself big-time after some poor choices: I am not saying anything about the person. I’d gladly have some beers with him, talk shop, shoot the sh$t, and thank him for his incompetence resulting in CmD!

    Due respect but those two paragraphs are at odds with each other. In one MacTavish is smart and a great guy, in the other he’s a parasite, a back-stabber and a leaker.

    I don’t have anything meaningful to say about what Taylor Hall is like “in the room”, but I shared a room with MacT a number of times during my time with the Oilers Analytics Working Group, and definitely put him in the “smart” and “good man” categories. Which doesn’t stop me or anyone from criticizing his performance as a manager, but I draw the line at criticizing him as a man.

  79. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Buttending an opponent in the face and then refusing to answer the bell when he wants to drop the gloves is turtling. Even worse, Hall did it with just 2 1/2 mins left in the game which is the most chickenshit time to take liberties cos you’re thinking you won’t see them the rest of the game. Unfortunately for Hall, Kassian got off the mat and he got up ready to dance.

    Regardess of whether you want to label it turtling, sticking your former junior teammate in the face off the faceoff? Not the classiest move a player can make.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAhVWf3jUEk

    Hall answered the bell. Kassian clocked him with a wicked left hook to the chin spinning Hall around and the fight was over, because it was a heavyweight against a non-fighter, and the one punch knocked the non-fighter completely off balance.

    In boxing, that would have deserved a standing 8-count since Hall was probably seeing stars from the hook that landed on his chin.

  80. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Even worse, Hall did it with just 2 1/2 mins left in the game which is the most chickenshit time to take liberties cos you’re thinking you won’t see them the rest of the game.

    The clock reads 17:31 to play.

  81. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: Hall answered the bell.Kassian clocked him with a wicked left hook to the chin spinning Hall around and the fight was over, because it was a heavyweight against a non-fighter, and the one punch knocked the non-fighter completely off balance.

    In boxing, that would have deserved a standing 8-count since Hall was probably seeing stars from the hook that landed on his chin.

    It was pretty close to a sucker punch by Kassian, & Hall never did drop the gloves. I was at this game & the second part of the altercation happened right in front of me. I remember thinking, “uh oh, that could even be five and a game for Kassian” but then saw the replay on the big screen of Hall clocking him first at the other end of the ice. Even then I did not expect an Edmonton powerplay as ultimately happened (Hall got 4, Kassian 2), but the refs took a mighty dim view of that butt end. So did the fans, who after largely applauding Hall throughout the night, booed him fairly heartily thereafter.

    I understand the two had something of a history in Windsor, not all of it good, but I will leave it at that.

  82. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The clock reads 17:31 to play.

    Is this the part where we blame it on Woodguy’s phone…?

  83. linkfromhyrule says:

    Bank Shot: Lets not even talk about playoffs. The only time the Oilers finished better than 28th while Hall was here was the lockout season in 2013. They were trending down and likely would have finished in the basement that season as well.
    Now the surrounding cast was poor no question, but if the core of that team was even average to above average surely the Oilers could have finished in 25th or 26th or even 24th one of those seasons.
    It’s not like the Oilers had the only crappy roster in the league. There were lots of crappy teams during the time period of 2011-2015 and the Oilers consistently out crapped them all.
    The fact that Hall, Eberle, RNH, and Schultz were our best players was surely part of the problem.
    That wouldn’t have been a playoff team with better depth players because the key players weren’t good enough.

    This is specious reasoning.

    That you can just hand wave away having dregs throughout the lineup is sort of unbelievable to me.

    Taylor Hall GF% Rel TM by season
    15-16 +11.8%
    14-15 +15.1%
    13-14 +9.1%
    12-13 +10.6%
    11-12 +9.5%
    10-11 +2.0%

    Throughout Hall’s time with the Oilers, the team was consistenly around 40%GF when Hall was off the ice. A literal lottery team. Hall finished above 50%GF every season except the lockout season, when his on-ice SV% tanked.

    And Hall was the problem?

    Hall is clearly not generational, maybe not even elite. Elite is a difficult one to define.

    But the surrounding cast? Horrendously terrible.

    Just an example, in 2013-14, Hall finished the season with the worst GF% of his career at 47.8%. Hall’s GF%rel that year? +9.1%. That means without Hall on the ice, his team was just *barely* scoring 1 goal for for every 2 against. For two thirds of every hockey game. How can any player win on a team like that?

    They can’t.

    There is no way in hell those teams were ever gaining any ground on their conference rivals either. The Western Conference was at its peak from 2010-2016. Only this past season did the powerhouses begin to waver.

    Note: I am not defending “the core” as being good enough. Only Hall. The problem with Nuge and Ebs is that they are not as good as Hall. Schultz wasn’t even really in the conversation.

  84. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy: It was pretty close to a sucker punch by Kassian, & Hall never did drop the gloves. I was at this game & the second part of the altercation happened right in front of me. I remember thinking, “uh oh, that could even be five and a game for Kassian” but then saw the replay on the big screen of Hall clocking him first at the other end of the ice. Even then I did not expect an Edmonton powerplay as ultimately happened (Hall got 4, Kassian 2), but the refs took a mighty dim view of that butt end. So did the fans, who after largely applauding Hall throughout the night, booed him fairly heartily thereafter.

    I understand the two had something of a history in Sudbury, not all of it good, but I will leave it at that.

    Windsor. And yeah there were a lot of issues there, with the whole hazing scenarios and the Renaud shadow.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan Johansen signing for $8M X 8 sure does not help with getting Drai done under $8M – those dreams are now gone.

  86. Munny says:

    Site traffic must be slow if the Hall trade is being raised 3 times a week… or is it only twice?

    The story, as Stauffer has told it, is that Chia tried to get Larsson with Nuge. Shero coveted Hall, but Chia didn’t want to trade him, insisted Nuge was as high as he was willing to go. However COL weighed in with Landeskog for Larsson. Shero told Chia if he didn’t offer Hall, he was taking Landeskog. And so here we are.

    So really personality played no role in the decision whatsoever, unless y’all think we should be talking about Nuge’s personality?

    Wonder how those Team Canada Oly teams were ever able to win with all those so-called Type A’s…

  87. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ryan Johansen signing for $8M X 8 sure does not help with getting Drai done under $8M – those dreams are now gone.

    I think maybe there’s a chance though, with his other peers signing for $7-7.8. Nashville doesn’t have many centres who could take his place (maybe if he was still there during the Finals they could have done it) and thus values Johansen much more (albeit only because we have McDavid – without Drai we still would have many issues).

    But hey, if Drai signs for $8x8y I don’t think the world will end. The important thing is to get it done and retain him.

  88. Munny says:

    I can hear Shero on the phone now…

    “Hey, Pete… is there a player on your team with the personality of a loser? Trade us that guy.”

  89. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OK if Johansen gets 8×8, so does Draisaitl.

    Please be 7.5 :(. Those lucky flames signed Gaudreau before the McDavid shift

  90. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here is the Oiler Total Goals Against NHL rank each year from 10/11 – 15/16

    10/11 – 29th
    11/12 – 22nd
    12/13 – 19th
    13/14 – 30th
    14/15 – 30th
    15/16 – 27th

    Here are the Dmen who played over 250 min/season for the Oilers from 10/11 – 15/16 sorted by minutes

    10/11
    Tom Gilbert 1936
    Ladislav Smid 1582
    Theo Peckham 1320
    Kurtis Foster 1307
    Jim Vandermeer 1128
    Ryan Whitney 887
    Jeff Petry 713
    Jason Strudwick 648

    11/12
    Ladislav Smid 1631
    Jeff Petry 1589
    Corey Potter 1237
    Tom Gilbert 1072
    Ryan Whitney 1069
    Theo Peckham 911
    Andy Sutton 868
    Cam Barker 459
    Nick Schultz 401
    Colten Teubert 303

    12/13
    Jeff Petry 1052
    Justin Schultz 1030
    Ladislav Smid 975
    Nick Schultz 894
    Ryan Whitney 628
    Corey Potter 576
    Mark Fistric 383

    13/14
    Justin Schultz 1728
    Jeff Petry 1727
    Andrew Ference 1495
    Nick Schultz 1018
    Anton Belov 951
    Martin Marincin 843
    Philip Larsen 515
    Mark Fraser 356
    Ladislav Smid 304
    Oscar Klefbom 269

    14/15
    Justin Schultz 1832
    Mark Fayne 1327
    Andrew Ference 1321
    Oscar Klefbom 1320
    Jeff Petry 1236
    Nikita Nikitin 825
    Martin Marincin 765
    Keith Aulie 443
    Brad Hunt 214

    15/16
    Andrej Sekera 1769
    Darnell Nurse 1396
    Mark Fayne 1153
    Brandon Davidson 979
    Eric Gryba 948
    Justin Schultz 906
    Oscar Klefbom 657
    Griffin Reinhart 524
    Jordan Oesterle 369
    Adam Clendening 311

    Here are the Oiler Forwards sorted by points ranked 4-12 every year from 10/11 – 15/16

    10/11
    Ales Hemsky 42
    Dustin Penner 39
    Andrew Cogliano 35
    Magnus Paajarvi 34
    Shawn Horcoff 27
    Linus Omark 27
    Ryan Jones 25
    Liam Reddox 10
    Gilbert Brule 9

    11/12
    Sam Gagner 47
    Ryan Smyth 46
    Ales Hemsky 36
    Shawn Horcoff 34
    Ryan Jones 33
    Eric Belanger 16
    Ben Eager 13
    Lennart Petrell 9
    Magnus Paajarvi 8

    12/13
    Nail Yakupov 31
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 24
    Ales Hemsky 20
    Magnus Paajarvi 16
    Ryan Smyth 13
    Shawn Horcoff 12
    Lennart Petrell 9
    Ryan Jones 7
    Eric Belanger 3

    13/14
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 56
    Sam Gagner 37
    Ales Hemsky 26
    Nail Yakupov 24
    Ryan Smyth 23
    Boyd Gordon 21
    Mark Arcobello 18
    Ryan Jones 6
    Will Acton 5

    The above wasn’t a lock out season. Honest.

    14/15
    Benoit Pouliot 34
    Teddy Purcell 34
    Nail Yakupov 33
    Derek Roy 22
    Anton Lander 20
    David Perron 19
    Matt Hendricks 16
    Boyd Gordon 13
    Mark Arcobello 12

    Hall was 3rd in scoring on this team while only playing 53 games.

    15/16
    Jordan Eberle 47
    Benoit Pouliot 36
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 34
    Teddy Purcell 32
    Mark Letestu 25
    Nail Yakupov 23
    Lauri Korpikoski 22
    Patrick Maroon 14
    Iiro Pakarinen 13

    McDavid was 3rd in scoring on this team while playing 48 games.

    Here is the Oilers 5v5 Goal Share with Hall off the ice for each year as an Oiler

    10/11 – 43.7%
    11/12 – 43.1%
    12/13 – 43.3%
    13/14 – 38.7%
    14/15 – 36.3%
    15/16 – 40.0%

    I too blame Hall for:

    -not being a better goalie
    -hiring more AHL Dmen than NHL Dmen
    -getting meh to negligible goal contributions from lines 2-4
    -having a below NHL replacement goal share when he wasn’t on the ice.

    Fuck that guy.

  91. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    Site traffic must be slow if the Hall trade is being raised 3 times a week… or is it only twice?

    Incredibly, site traffic remains insane. Easily the biggest May, June and July on the site. I thank everyone for stopping by and appreciate the respectful discourse.

  92. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Due respect but those two paragraphs are at odds with each other. In one MacTavish is smart anda great guy, in the other he’s a parasite, a back-stabber and a leaker.

    I don’t have anything meaningful to say about what Taylor Hall is like “in the room”, but I shared a room with MacT a number of times during my time with the Oilers Analytics Working Group, and definitely put him in the “smart” and “good man” categories. Which doesn’t stop me or anyone from criticizing his performance as a manager, but I draw the line at criticizing him as a man.

    – Bruce – I’m sure you have worked with people who you liked personally, that were smart and fun, but they were fired for cause.

    – “I really liked so and so, but he had to go” That’s MacT

    – A guy who picks up a check from the only organzation that would hire him, and still sits at the big-boy table: that’s a reflection on him, and his ability to weasel his way around based on his relationship with the owner, not on any merit

    – Parasite might have been the wrong word, but he should show some pride. It’s going to end badly for Chia one day, and I have no doubt MacT will be there to pick up the pieces, while picking up checks and biding his time. No management team would accept what Chia does, unless it’s a family-run business.

    – He should go back to media: he was good at it.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ryan Johansen signing for $8M X 8 sure does not help with getting Drai done under $8M – those dreams are now gone.

    Nashville bought only 1 RFA year, Drai has 5 RFA years

    RJ has a history of outscoring the opposition as a #1 C for the last 4 years, Drai has not out scored anyone while playing C and has never played 1C.

    This is a good contract to keep Drai closer to $7 if not under than $8.

    Chiarelli has a history of paying too much for what he wants so it probably lands on $8.

  94. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The clock reads 17:31 to play.

    Good spot. My bad. I inexplicably want into European clock mode there (i.e. counting up instead of counting down) for some reason. lol

  95. digger50 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Buttending an opponent in the face and then refusing to answer the bell when he wants to drop the gloves is turtling. Even worse, Hall did it with just 2 1/2 mins left in the game which is the most chickenshit time to take liberties cos you’re thinking you won’t see them the rest of the game. Unfortunately for Hall, Kassian got off the mat and he got up ready to dance.

    Regardess of whether you want to label it turtling, sticking your former junior teammate in the face off the faceoff? Not the classiest a player can make.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAhVWf3jUEk

    I kind of liked that play by Hall

    First, he swung his elbow/arm/butt end and connected with the butt end, not real intentional to my eye. But lets just say it was intentional.

    Here is a player who has never been dirty or take cheap shots in any way. Suddenly he lashes out at the toughest guy on the team he feels shorted him? that was a real F you.

    Suddenly the guy who has always been accused of not enough balls leaves the toughest Oiler needing stitches.

    Hall was not the problem. He was part of the solution but he was not enough. Laying all that blame on the player was plenty of reason to provide a big F-you back to Edmonton. Not classy, nope, but I kinda liked it.

    .

  96. Bank Shot says:

    Why are we crying crocodile tears for Kassian?

    If anyone deserves to get butt ended in the face its that guy.

    Is it because Hall wears Red now and Kassian wear blue? That’s what I think.

    It’s not like Hall chased down Puljujarvi and slashed his neck. He got into it with a dirtball player. Big deal.

    If McDavid did that to Kesler we’d all be pretty happy about it.

  97. Cameron says:

    smellyglove,

    “Also, LT and other wise posters — I would be keen to hear from you which NHL squads you feel do have ‘balance’. And, is balance necessary to win a cup?”

    I’d argue Calgary is closer to achieving balance than Edmonton (to nobody’s surprise)

    Cgy has;

    A legit 1st line (Offense): Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland

    An elite 2nd line (Hard minutes): Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik

    A 3rd line with youth and grit (soft minute parade): Vertseeg-Bennett-Lazar/Jankowski

    A vet 4th line (lower minutes the better): Stajan-Lazar/Jankowski-Brouwer

    The D Corps is steep, and deep;

    1st pair (River pushers): Giordano-Hamilton

    2nd Pair (Shutdown): Brodie-Hamonic

    3rd Par (whatever is left): Stone-Kulak

    Goaltender:

    Starter: Smith
    Backup: Lack

    So the areas of need to achieve balance are;

    A high(er) scoring RW to add kick to the first line. Maybe it could be Ferland. Maybe.
    The development of Bennett. If he kicks his game up a notch (being separated from Brouwer would go a long way towards improving his numbers), or even better, two notches, the Flames will be very dangerous.

    Which just leaves goaltending, which looks to have Cgy fans in perpetual existential dread until it is clear Smith is actually capable.

    As for a team that has ‘balance’ right now? Nashville.

  98. Bag of Pucks says:

    digger50: I kind of liked that play by Hall

    Bank Shot:
    Why are we crying crocodile tears for Kassian?

    I admire tough courageous hockey. I don’t admire dirty gutless hockey.

    A couple inches over and you’re potentially talking about Kassian losing an eye over that play, not Hall being a ‘tough guy,’

    Most importantly, Hall was completely gutless when Kassian tried to settle it the old fashioned way. In other words, he’s brave enough to hit a guy in the face when he’s not expecting it but not brave enough to drop the gloves when he is.

    It was Matt Cook-esque and really, that’s about the worst term I can use to describe a hockey play.

    Lost a lot of respect for Hall in that moment. Just my opinion. Can appreciate the mileage will vary on this.

  99. Bag of Pucks says:

    digger50: I kind of liked that play by Hall

    First, he swung his elbow/arm/butt end and connected with the butt end, not real intentional to my eye. But lets just say it was intentional.

    Here is a player who has never been dirty or take cheap shots in any way. Suddenly he lashes out at the toughest guy on the team he feels shorted him? that was a real F you.

    Suddenly the guy who has always been accused of not enough balls leaves the toughest Oiler needing stitches.

    Hall was not the problem. He was part of the solution but he was not enough.Laying all that blame on the player was plenty of reason to provide a big F-you back to Edmonton. Not classy, nope, but I kindaliked it.

    .

    And Hall does have a history of being dirty when it suits him. He went knee on knee with Clutterbuck intentionally and there was one other dirty play, though the particulars are escaping me at this time.

    I don’t mind a player being unpredictable to create space for themselves. Anderson and Messier were masters at it. But if you’re going to do it, you better be prepared to answer the bell when the opponent drops the gloves. Turning your back on a fight after hitting someone in the face? Imagine someone doing that to you in the real world? You’d lose your collective shit.

  100. Bank Shot says:

    linkfromhyrule:
    There is no way in hell those teams were ever gaining any ground on their conference rivals either. The Western Conference was at its peak from 2010-2016. Only this past season did the powerhouses begin to waver.

    Note: I am not defending “the core” as being good enough. Only Hall. The problem with Nuge and Ebs is that they are not as good as Hall. Schultz wasn’t even really in the conversation.

    Well they could have finished ahead of a 2013/2014 Calgary whose top scorer was Jiri Hudler with 50 something points.

    I agree Hall is good, just that you aren’t going to be a great team if he is your best player.

    I think he’s a really good player, just not quite as good as he was billed to be during the dark ages.

  101. Bank Shot says:

    Cameron:
    smellyglove,

    “Also, LT and other wise posters — I would be keen to hear from you which NHL squads you feel do have ‘balance’. And, is balance necessary to win a cup?”

    I’d argue Calgary is closer to achieving balance than Edmonton (to nobody’s surprise)

    Closer to being a balanced perennial 8th seed.

    Congrats!

  102. Bank Shot says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I admire tough courageous hockey. I don’t admire dirty gutless hockey.

    A couple inches over and you’re potentially talking about Kassian losing an eye over that play, not Hall being a ‘tough guy,’

    Most importantly, Hall was completely gutless when Kassian tried to settle it the old fashioned way. In other words, he’s brave enough to hit a guy in the face when he’s not expecting it but not brave enough to drop the gloves when he is.

    It was Matt Cook-esque and really, that’s about the worst term I can use to describe a hockey play.

    He did it to a Matt Cooke-esque player so I really can’t get upset about it.

    This is the same guy that broke Gagner’s jaw with a stick swing. I don’t recall Kassian toeing up with Gazdic to settle that one……

    I’m all for guys like Kassian dying by the sword.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Nashville bought only 1 RFA year, Drai has 5 RFA years

    RJ has a history of outscoring the opposition as a #1 C for the last 4 years, Drai has not out scored anyone while playing C and has never played 1C.

    This is a good contract to keep Drai closer to $7 if not under than $8.

    Chiarelli has a history of paying too much for what he wants so it probably lands on $8.

    Those are valid factors (in particular the UFA years bought – I think Drai would give up only 3 on an 8 year deal).

    One fact remains supreme, RJ’s 71 point season is his outlier, he’s a 60-65 point center and Drai just put up 77 points (granted one year and playing half on the wing).

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Those are valid factors (in particular the UFA years bought – I think Drai would give up only 3 on an 8 year deal).

    One fact remains supreme, RJ’s 71 point season is his outlier, he’s a 60-65 point center and Drai just put up 77 points (granted one year and playing half on the wing).

    Yeah, 57% with McDavid last year.

    If he would have maintained his point pace away from McDavid all year and played all year without him he would have had 62 points.

  105. Georges says:

    linkfromhyrule:

    Throughout Hall’s time with the Oilers, the team was consistenly around 40%GF when Hall was off the ice. A literal lottery team. Hall finished above 50%GF every season except the lockout season, when his on-ice SV% tanked.

    And Hall was the problem?

    Being at 40% GF with your best player off the ice is no way to win hockey games.

    Being at 50% GF with your best player on the ice is no way to win hockey games.

    From 2010-11 to 2015-16, Oilers 5v5 GF% with Hall on the ice: 50.3%.

    The Oilers were terrible without Hall. And they weren’t good enough with Hall. If you come out even with your first line, I’m guessing you’re in trouble.

    My commentary started with LT’s statements about Hall being type A and a leader. I’m finding it hard to square leadership with the results. I guess losing sides have their leaders too. I’m going with the conventions of history with my unkind reading of Hall’s leadership to date. The future, however, is uncertain.

  106. Munny says:

    Lowetide,

    I was being facetious, but the news on the traffic is good to hear.

  107. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Professor Q: Windsor. And yeah there were a lot of issues there, with the whole hazing scenarios and the Renaud shadow.

    Wow, you’re quick. I had fixed that typo within a minute.

  108. Georges says:

    Bank Shot:
    Why are we crying crocodile tears for Kassian?

    If anyone deserves to get butt ended in the face its that guy.

    Is it because Hall wears Red now and Kassian wear blue? That’s what I think.

    It’s not like Hall chased down Puljujarvi and slashed his neck. He got into it with a dirtball player. Big deal.

    If McDavid did that to Kesler we’d all be pretty happy about it.

    Whoa, hey, whoa…

    That’s our dirtball player now. His teammates get a real kick when he scores. Took the mugging from Chara. Big part of two wins against the Sharks. It’s exactly what you think.

  109. vinotintazo says:

    Cameron: A legit 1st line (Offense): Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland

    The only thing close to elite here is Johnny Hockey.

    I like your 2nd line, and your top Pair. rest is meh.

  110. speeds says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    OK if Johansen gets 8×8, so does Draisaitl.

    Please be 7.5 :(.Those lucky flames signed Gaudreau before the McDavid shift

    Is there a “McDavid shift”? Good narrative for an agent to put out there, but not sure how impactful such a thing might be?

  111. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Bruce – I’m sure you have worked with people who you liked personally, that were smart and fun, but they were fired for cause.

    My “which doesn’t stop me or anyone from criticizing his performance as a manager” = your “fired with cause”. I accept that he was fired (or should I say, demoted) on (de)merit.

    I have more trouble accepting your other remarks, but have already said my piece on that front.

  112. Pink Socks says:

    Georges: Being at 40% GF with your best player off the ice is no way to win hockey games.

    Being at 50% GF with your best player on the ice is no way to win hockey games.

    From 2010-11 to 2015-16, Oilers 5v5 GF% with Hall on the ice: 50.3%.

    The Oilers were terrible without Hall. And they weren’t good enough with Hall. If you come out even with your first line, I’m guessing you’re in trouble.

    Thank you Georges always appreciate your statistical views of things. I agree with you. the 2010-2016 Oilers were not good enough whether Hall was on the ice or not. The question then, is if the D behind Hall from 10-16 was the same group as 16-17, how much better would that team have been? I would not say playoff, but definitely not the hot garbage we grew accustomed to watching. I’m certain with our current D corps Halls 5×5 GF% would have been significantly higher.

    That being said, with McDavid drafted, like many have said before, I am very satisfied with PC’s body of work, save for a few head scratchers.

  113. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Those blaming Hall for the trade are engaging in uneconomic thinking. He was traded because he’s a desirable player… another GM desired and needed his services. The team with a surplus of wingers and a need for defensemen traded with a team with a surplus of defensemen and a need for a scoring winger.

  114. Munny says:

    Georges: If you come out even with your first line, I’m guessing you’re in trouble.

    You must know that if the first line is sawing off all of the rest of the NHL teams’ first lines, that the same statement can be said for the other 29 teams… their first lines are only coming out even.

    We had a team go to the Finals with a first line that had that ability. It’s fine as long as you can consistently outplay somewhere else. Which those subsequent squads couldn’t do.

  115. Thinker says:

    Cameron:
    smellyglove,

    “Also, LT and other wise posters — I would be keen to hear from you which NHL squads you feel do have ‘balance’. And, is balance necessary to win a cup?”

    I’d argue Calgary is closer to achieving balance than Edmonton (to nobody’s surprise)

    Cgy has;

    A legit 1st line (Offense): Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland

    An elite 2nd line (Hard minutes): Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik

    A 3rd line with youth and grit (soft minute parade): Vertseeg-Bennett-Lazar/Jankowski

    A vet 4th line (lower minutes the better): Stajan-Lazar/Jankowski-Brouwer

    The D Corps is steep, and deep;

    1st pair (River pushers): Giordano-Hamilton

    2nd Pair (Shutdown): Brodie-Hamonic

    3rd Par (whatever is left): Stone-Kulak

    Goaltender:

    Starter: Smith
    Backup: Lack

    So the areas of need to achieve balance are;

    A high(er) scoring RW to add kick to the first line. Maybe it could be Ferland. Maybe.
    The development of Bennett. If he kicks his game up a notch (being separated from Brouwer would go a long way towards improving his numbers), or even better, two notches, theFlames will be very dangerous.

    Which just leaves goaltending, which looks to have Cgy fans in perpetual existential dread until it is clear Smith is actually capable.

    As for a team that has ‘balance’ right now? Nashville.

    If you had a goalie you might be ok. Good luck making the playoffs with Smith. Pretty light on the top end imo. You’d like to see a legit #1C (37 in ppg). I’m not convinced Nuge wouldn’t put up more points in the same role. It’s a good dcore, but I could see Hamonic going sideways.

  116. rickithebear says:

    6

    flea: I might include Sleppy in this trade instead of Benson to make it work

    Since 05-06; there have been 77 occurances of forward 18 to 22 yr old playing 10+ Gm in the playoffs getting .23 GPG or better.

    Players wit Multiple seasons,
    Crsoby
    07-08 .30 GPG (20)
    08-09 .63 (21)
    09-10 .45 (22)

    Couture
    09-10 .27 (20)
    10-11 .39 (21)

    Gallagher
    13-14 .24 (21)
    14-15 .25 (22)

    P. Kane
    08-09 .56 (20)
    09-10 .45 (21)

    Krieder
    11-12 .28 (20)
    13-14 .33 (22)

    Kucherov
    14-15 .38 (21)
    15-16 .65 (22)

    Lucic
    08-09 .30 (20)
    09-10 .65 (21)

    Malkin
    07-08 .50 (21)
    08-09 .58 (22)

    Niederietter
    13-14 .23 (21)
    14-15 .40 (22)

    Saad
    13-14 .32 (21)
    14-15 .35 (22)

    J. Staal
    07-08 .30 (19)
    09-10 .27 (21)

    Toews
    08-09 .41 (20)
    09-10 .32 (21)

    12 Players occupied 25 of the 77 occurances

    Current oilers who have achieved 1 Season.
    Draisatl 16-17 .46 (21) top 10
    Mcdavid 16-17 .38 (19) 26th best
    Slepyshev 16-17 .25 (22) 61st best
    Caggulia 16-17 .23 (22) 71st best

    Since the 12-13 lockout (last 5 seasons);
    their have been 174 Occurances
    Players with multiple seasons
    J. Williams 4/5
    Malkin 4/5
    ——————-
    Crosby 3/5
    Hagelin 3/5
    P. Kane 3/5
    Krieder 3/5
    Neal 3/5
    Ovechkin 3/5
    Perry 3/5
    Sharp 3/5
    —————-
    Bergeron 2/5
    Bickell 2/5
    Boyle 2/5
    Brassard 2/5
    Carter 2/5
    Couture 2/5
    Gallagher 2/5
    Getzlaf 2/5
    Hornquist 2/5
    iginla 2/5
    T. Johnson 2/5
    Kessel 2/5
    Killorn 2/5
    Kucherov 2/5
    Kunitz 2/5
    Kuznetsov 2/5
    Lucic 2/5
    Maroon 2/5
    Nash 2/5
    Niederietter 2/5
    oshie 2/5
    Pacioretty 2/5
    Pageau 2/5
    Palat 2/5
    Parise 2/5
    Pavelski 2/5
    Rust 2/5
    Saad 2/5
    Silverberg 2/5
    Stepan 2/5
    Tarasenko 2/5
    Toews 2/5

    Current oilers with .23 GPG Playoff seasons
    Lucic LW 2/5
    Maroon LW 2/5
    Caggulia RW 1/5
    Draisatl C 1/5
    J. Jokinen LW/C 1/5
    Kassian RW1/5
    Letestu C 1/5
    Mcdavid C 1/5
    Slepyshev 1/5

    Maroon – Mcdavid – Strome
    Slepyshev – Draisatl – RNH
    Lucic – Jokinen – Puljujarvi
    Caggulia – Letestu – Kassian
    Khaira – Pakarinen

    PP1
    Maroon – Letestu – Draiatl- Mcdavid
    Klefbom

    PP2
    Lucic – Stome – Puljujarvi – RNH
    XXX

    PK1
    Caggulia – Jokinen

    PK2
    Letestu – Kassian

  117. Bank Shot says:

    Georges: Whoa, hey, whoa…

    That’s our dirtball player now. His teammates get a real kick when he scores. Took the mugging from Chara. Big part of two wins against the Sharks. It’s exactly what you think.

    I’ll cheer for him to succeed as long as he plays for the Oilers.

    I don’t think I’ll ever like him though,

  118. dustrock says:

    I think Cameron’s point is fair.

    Just, we have McDavid. The human gyroscope. Or something. Almost happy hour, anyway.

  119. Ducey says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Nashville bought only 1 RFA year, Drai has 5 RFA years

    RJ has a history of outscoring the opposition as a #1 C for the last 4 years, Drai has not out scored anyone while playing C and has never played 1C.

    This is a good contract to keep Drai closer to $7 if not under than $8.

    Chiarelli has a history of paying too much for what he wants so it probably lands on $8.

    The RFA years used to matter. I don’t know that they do anymore.

    Likely the main issue in the next lockout.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I blame O’Reilly for how awful the Sabers are.

    Only 50%GF this year.

  121. russ99 says:

    We were not in the room so we can only infer, but it seems odd to me that the last two seasons Hall was here, he was doing a lot of captain-like things and making statements to the press like a leader of the group.

    So why didn’t they give him the “C”?

  122. Thinker says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I blame O’Reilly for how awful the Sabers are.

    Only 50%GF this year.

    It wasn’t Hall’s fault, but he isn’t as good as some suggest. He should be a number 2 on a good team.

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: Being at 40% GF with your best player off the ice is no way to win hockey games.

    Being at 50% GF with your best player on the ice is no way to win hockey games.

    From 2010-11 to 2015-16, Oilers 5v5 GF% with Hall on the ice: 50.3%.

    The Oilers were terrible without Hall. And they weren’t good enough with Hall. If you come out even with your first line, I’m guessing you’re in trouble.

    My commentary started with LT’s statements about Hall being type A and a leader. I’m finding it hard to square leadership with the results. I guess losing sides have their leaders too. I’m going with the conventions of history with my unkind reading of Hall’s leadership to date. The future, however, is uncertain.

    If you discount his rookie year it’s 51.5%.

    This year Karlsson was 52.6% on OTT.

    Over the last 6 years Karlsson’s GF% is 51.5

    I guess everything people say about Hall can be said about Karlsson.

  124. Georges says:

    Munny: You must know that if the first line is sawing off all of the rest of the NHL teams’ first lines, that the same statement can be said for the other 29 teams… their first lines are only coming out even.

    Overall goal differential (+/-) tells you pretty accurately where you’ll end up in the standings. The variance in overall +/- is mostly accounted for by the variance in 5v5 +/-.

    In the universe you’re describing, first lines play exclusively against each other and battle to a draw. They contribute nothing or very little to 5v5 +/-. Meaning your role players, who play fewer minutes, determine whether you win or lose. I can check but that just doesn’t sound right.

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Thinker: It wasn’t Hall’s fault, but he isn’t as good as some suggest. He should be a number 2 on a good team.

    A number 2 what?

  126. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If you discount his rookie year it’s 51.5%.

    This year Karlsson was 52.6% on OTT.

    Over the last 6 years Karlsson’s GF% is 51.5

    I guess everything people say about Hall can be said about Karlsson.

    You know I was talking about Hall as a leader, right?

    But, sure, I’ll have a look. It’s always fun.

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Last 11/12-15/16:

    Karlsson on 51.5% GF
    Karlsson 49.1% GF

    “Karlsson drags a mediocre OTT teams to the playoffs sometimes”

    Hall on 51.1% GF
    Hall off 44.2% GF

    “Hall isn’t a leader and trading him was addition by subtraction”

    Ok then.

    Note: I know Georges isn’t saying this, but the thread is full of it

  128. Thinker says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Like second best player on a team. Someone who fall’s into the 30-60 best players in the league. Like you can win with him, but you either need someone better than him pushing him down, or a lot of depth holding him up.

  129. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Thinker:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Like second best player on a team. Someone who fall’s into the 30-60 best players in the league.

    That’s fair.

    I have him top 30 and if he’s playing with someone better on the same team then that’s a team that will be tough to play against if they each drive a line.

  130. treevojo says:

    linkfromhyrule:
    The trade wasn’t for personality. It was for need. Pretty sure Chia would have happily kept Hall if he could have. The other Austin’s just don’t have the value, plus Chia had the Lucic-itch (Lucitch?)

    Regarding Hall’s culpability in the Oilers not making the playoff during his tenure, I highly doubt even Mcdavid could have dragged the Oilers of 2011-2015 into the playoffs. Blaming the best player on a bad team for losing is one of the oldest sports fallacies around. The bottom six, defense, and goalies were a steaming pile of s**t but only the best player is blamed for not making the playoffs. Makes sense.

    “I strapped my best draft horse and five 3-legged horses to a 300,000# boat anchor, but they couldn’t pull it. Stupid draft horse, guess I’m going to have to take it out back and put it down.”

    It isn’t Hall’s fault the Oilers had zero depth, bad coaching, below replacement level D, awful goaltending, non-stop injuries, and to top it off a management team too incompetent to even correctly identify the myriad problems. Tambo and MacT are some of the worst GM’s of the modern era.

    In hockey, like other team sports, the team is only as strong as the weakest link. Edmonton was almost exclusively weak links outside the top line during Hall’s time here. How many actual top pairing D did we have during Hall’s time with the team? Pretty sure it’s close to zero.

    Then, suddenly, when the bottom six, defense, and goaltending is the best it’s been in 10 years and we make the playoffs, it’s because the culture has changed. It isn’t. It’s because the team around Mcdavid isn’t a steaming pile of s**t.

    To suggest that Hall, who is only one player out of 18 dressing each night, should be able to overcome the weakness of 12 or so other players is just silly.

    And on top of this, he never requested a trade and still gave a s**t when he had very little reason to. The nerve of this guy.

    Management though? They somehow managed to simultaneously be the reason the team was terrible and the reason he was traded. Still employed too!

    I guarantee if Mcdavid were drafted in 2010 he would have drug an Oilers team to the playoffs by 2016.

    That IS what generational players do.

    They make EVERYONE around them better.

    That includes teammates, coaches, gms, owners and even the concession guys.

    I agree that it isn’t Taylor Halls fault that he isn’t a generational player.

  131. Georges says:

    Pescador: NJ needed scoring,
    Stop.
    EDM needed defence,
    Stop.
    Even if there were extenuating circumstances, WTF is the point in endlessly debating it?

    Ummm, the host sets the terms and regularly returns to this particular debate. And asked in this thread about our opinions on extenuating circumstances for Hall’s departure.

    BTW, did NJ get scoring?
    Stop.

  132. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ryan Johansen signing for $8M X 8 sure does not help with getting Drai done under $8M – those dreams are now gone.

    No doubt,61 points last season in 82. Price goes up each signing.

  133. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Last 11/12-15/16:

    Karlsson on 51.5% GF
    Karlsson 49.1% GF

    “Karlsson drags a mediocre OTT teams to the playoffs sometimes”

    Hall on 51.1% GF
    Hall off 44.2% GF

    “Hall isn’t a leader and trading him was addition by subtraction”

    Ok then.

    Note: I know Georges isn’t saying this, but the thread is full of it

    Actually, I can’t go with you there. You’re comparing a forward to a defenseman. That’s where angels fear to tread. Please dig up another F to compare to Hall and I’ll play.

    EDIT: One quibble. Over that time frame, Hall averaged 16 minutes EV TOI. Karlsson was at 21:45 EV TOI. Overall, Hall played 19:07. Karlsson played 27:09. If Karlsson was slightly winning at 5v5 just like Hall, he was slightly winning for longer than Hall, which means more winning for OTT than EDM.

  134. godot10 says:

    treevojo: I guarantee if Mcdavid were drafted in 2010 he would have drug an Oilers team to the playoffs by 2016.

    McDavid didn’t make Justin Schultz better, though Crosby did.

    That IS what generational players do.

    They make EVERYONE around them better.

    That includes teammates, coaches, gms, owners and even the concession guys.

    I agree that it isn’t Taylor Halls fault that he isn’t a generational player.

    The OIlers with Chiarelli, McLellan, Hall, and McDavid were far worse than the team was under Todd Nelson without McDavid, and without Hall most of the time.

    The Avalanche have MacKinnon, Duchense, and Landeskog….three really good players, and the Avalanche were beyond horrid last year.

    McDavid could not have dragged those Oiler teams from 2010-2015 to the playoffs.

    As for making players better…Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle and Pouliot and Lucic have all been worse than their norms on McDavid’s Oilers.

    McDavid didn’t make Justin Schultz any better. Crosby did.

  135. Munny says:

    Georges: In the universe you’re describing, first lines play exclusively against each other and battle to a draw. They contribute nothing or very little to 5v5 +/-. Meaning your role players, who play fewer minutes, determine whether you win or lose. I can check but that just doesn’t sound right.

    Well, for one, a team’s bottom nine plays more minutes than their top three. So yes, they can have a material effect on goal differential and winning.

    Secondly, in this power vs. power world I’m describing, which in general the NHL is now, you haven’t accounted for the other 29 teams’ top line scoring 49.7 percent GF against the Oilers’ top line. That is, the generalization you made about the Oilers’ top line could also be made about the remainder of NHL top lines vs the Oilers.

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: Ummm, the host sets the terms and regularly returns to this particular debate. And asked in this thread about our opinions on extenuating circumstances for Hall’s departure.

    BTW, did NJ get scoring?
    Stop.

    Did they get scoring?

    They got the guy who’s tied 12th in the NHL in 5v5 scoring/60 over the last 4 seasons.

    He’s also 11th in total 5v5 scoring over the last 4 years.

    I know people love to yell “but injures!!”

    He’s 11th in total 5v5 scoring in the NHL over the last 4 years.

  137. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s fair.

    I have him top 30 and if he’s playing with someone better on the same team then that’s a team that will be tough to play against if they each drive a line.

    You think so?

    I think a team that Hall is the second best player is probably not a top third NHL team unless they have a good handful of guys in that same range.

    Looking back at the Cup Winners since the lockout I don’t see any teams that Hall is inside the top two players.

    Could have been top 3 on Carolina and the 09 Pens.

    Would probably be the fifth best player on the Kings, Bruins, and recent Pens.

    Would have been the 7th best player on those Hawks squads.

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: Actually, I can’t go with you there. You’re comparing a forward to a defenseman. That’s where angels fear to tread. Please dig up another F to compare to Hall and I’ll play.

    Karlsson had more TOI and therefore more influence.

    Why not play because he’s a Dman?

  139. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bank Shot: He did it to a Matt Cooke-esque player so I really can’t get upset about it.

    This is the same guy that broke Gagner’s jaw with a stick swing. I don’t recall Kassian toeing up with Gazdic to settle that one……

    I’m all for guys like Kassian dying by the sword.

    You raise a valid point that Kassian is/was a dirty player, and in the process, you kind of remind me of Pat Quinn a bit ; )

  140. treevojo says:

    godot10: The OIlers with Chiarelli, McLellan, Hall, and McDavid were far worse than the team was under Todd Nelson without McDavid, and without Hall most of the time.

    The Avalanche have MacKinnon, Duchense, and Landeskog….three really good players, and the Avalanche were beyond horrid last year.

    McDavid could not have dragged those Oiler teams from 2010-2015 to the playoffs.

    As for making players better…Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle and Pouliot and Lucic have all been worse than their norms on McDavid’s Oilers.

    McDavid didn’t make Justin Schultz any better.Crosby did.

    Three really good players.

    Not one is generational.

    I could have swore Mcdavid missed half his ROOKIE season with an injury.

    But this will be a debate with no winner so what’s the point.

    Nice to see you find a way to get a plug in for Todd Nelson though.

    Cause that was relevant.

  141. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Did they get scoring?

    They got the guy who’s tied 12th in the NHL in 5v5 scoring/60 over the last 4 seasons.

    He’s also 11th in total 5v5 scoring over the last 4 years.

    I know people love to yell “but injures!!”

    He’s 11th in total 5v5 scoring in the NHL over the last 4 years.

    Yeah but you are counting that year when Hall’s IPP was 98.

    We know that’s a major outlier and probably represents a career year for Hall.

    Over the last 3 seasons Hall is 25th in PPG and 31 in overall 5 on 5 points for players that have played 3000 minutes.

    That’s pretty decent, but that’s a crowded area when it comes to good players. Lots of company.

  142. Lucic n Chong says:

    LT,

    This is a first time post from a long time lurker of the site. Not sure why I chose this arbitrary moment, but just wanted to say thanks to you and all the insightful Oil fans who post here. I’m a born and raised Albertan and Oil fan, can remember seeing Petr Klima riding the LRT home with his small kit bag and Jofa dangling after games.

    I’ve been living overseas for the better part of a decade so I don’t get anything Oilers save for the Al Gore, but this blog has been a light at the end of the tunnel when the team let us down so many times.

    Thanks again and bring on the Stanley(s).

  143. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    See edit to prior comment.

    Also, are you comfortable comparing forwards to defensemen? I thought your woodmoney left defensemen out of the elite, middle, gritensity categories?

  144. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny:
    Site traffic must be slow if the Hall trade is being raised 3 times a week… or is it only twice?

    The story, as Stauffer has told it, is that Chia tried to get Larsson with Nuge.Shero coveted Hall, but Chia didn’t want to trade him, insisted Nuge was as high as he was willing to go.However COL weighed in with Landeskog for Larsson.Shero told Chia if he didn’t offer Hall, he was taking Landeskog.And so here we are.

    So really personality played no role in the decision whatsoever, unless y’all think we should be talking about Nuge’s personality?

    Wonder how those Team Canada Oly teams were ever able to win with all those so-called Type A’s…

    If anybody else was offering anything for Larsson that means he was being shopped as well. This is why the talk from the teams struck me as BS. It didn’t ring true.

    Shero needed scoring, he knew several teams needed D. Hall trumped Landeskog, and it’s my belief they wanted him out either way after the comment. Shero played it well from his end, but it was a big time screw up, he should have traded Severson as the results say.

  145. Thinker says:

    217th in GF60
    142nd in GF%
    99.92 PDO
    63rd in GA60 (Just below eberle)
    149th in CF60

    I don’t think we traded the same player that should have been a 2nd team all star.

  146. Lowetide says:

    Lucic n Chong:
    LT,

    This is a first time post from a long time lurker of the site. Not sure why I chose this arbitrary moment, but just wanted to say thanks to you and all the insightful Oil fans who post here. I’m a born and raised Albertan and Oil fan, can remember seeing Petr Klima riding the LRT home with his small kit bag and Jofa dangling after games.

    I’ve been living overseas for the better part of a decade so I don’t get anything Oilers save for the Al Gore, but this blog has been a light at the end of the tunnel when the team let us down so many times.

    Thanks again and bring on the Stanley(s).

    Thanks so much for the kind words, they are very much appreciated.

  147. Georges says:

    Munny: Well, for one, a team’s bottom nine plays more minutes than their top three.So yes, they can have a material effect on goal differential and winning.

    Secondly, in this power vs. power world I’m describing, which in general the NHL is now, you haven’t accounted for the other 29 teams’ top line scoring 49.7 percent GF against the Oilers’ top line. That is, the generalization you made about the Oilers’ top line could also be made about the remainder of NHL top lines vs the Oilers.

    I said if your top line is 50%, then you’re probably not winning.

    1. Top lines don’t play exclusively against top lines. Woodmoney for RNH shows 40 some percent TOI against elites and I’ve heard WG say that’s extreme.

    2. I’m guessing that top lines saw off against top lines while generally winning in matchups against lesser opponents.

    3. A top line that goes 50% against all of its matchups isn’t doing enough to help your team win.

    4. It’s not that other teams’ top lines are going 50% against Hall-led top lines. They don’t spend all of their time playing Hall and Hall doesn’t spend all of his time playing them. They might be going 50% with him out there but then they’re destroying the rest of the team when he’s off the ice. Meanwhile, Hall is overall breaking even when he gets back out there against non-top lines.

    5. This is one way the data can play out. Another way is that Hall-led lines were beaten by other top lines and his line got back to 50 by beating the lesser lights.

  148. godot10 says:

    Georges: I said if your top line is 50%, then you’re probably not winning.

    But Hall did it consistantly with the worst defense in the NHL behind him.

  149. oilcanharry says:

    I miss Hall, and still cheer for him. I was hoping he’d score against the Oilers that first time back, and that Edmonton would walk away with the win.

    There are (at least) two schools of thought on morality, one that calls actions right or wrong based on their consequences, and one that evaluates them based on the act itself, regardless of the outcome. A consequentialist would approve of murdering someone if it saved 100 lives, a deontologist would not, because murder is always wrong.

    Sounds like LT is a deontologist when it comes to trades. Look at the trade itself, put yourself in the GM’s armchair, and evaluate based on the facts known and knowable at that time. A trade is bad if you give more than you get, regardless of which team wins more points the following season.

    I would prefer a GM that wins every trade, but I would rather have a team of bums that win than an all-star cast on a team that misses the playoffs (1997 Canucks, anyone?). Lose the battle, win the war is fine with me.

    By the way, has Ryan Johansen set the market for Leon Draisaitl? 8 years, $8.00M per year.

  150. Georges says:

    godot10: But Hall did it consistantly with the worst defense in the NHL behind him.

    Taylor Hall may be a fine hockey player who’s had the bad luck of playing on very bad hockey teams. We can leave it at that…?

  151. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Did they get scoring?

    They got the guy who’s tied 12th in the NHL in 5v5 scoring/60 over the last 4 seasons.

    He’s also 11th in total 5v5 scoring over the last 4 years.

    I know people love to yell “but injures!!”

    He’s 11th in total 5v5 scoring in the NHL over the last 4 years.

    I actually meant this:

    NJD GF

    2015-16 182 (30th)
    2016-17 180 (28th)

    I know why you chose 4 years to argue for Hall’s elite offense. Same reason why I choose 3 to argue against it.

  152. godot10 says:

    oilcanharry:

    There are (at least) two schools of thought on morality, one that calls actions right or wrong based on their consequences, and one that evaluates them based on the act itself, regardless of the outcome.A consequentialist would approve of murdering someone if it saved 100 lives, a deontologist would not, because murder is always wrong.

    I think you are defining a deontologist incorrectly. Disclaimer: I am a trained physicist dabbling in philosophy. For the deontogogist, the end does not matter in determining the rightness or wrongness of an action. Murder might not always be wrong for a deontologist. Deontology is about right action, not necessarily right results. i.e. Do the right thing, regardless of the consequences. Suspension of the ethical.

  153. godot10 says:

    Georges: Taylor Hall may be a fine hockey player who’s had the bad luck of playing on very bad hockey teams. We can leave it at that…?

    We could leave it at that but the Hall bashers never leave it at that.

  154. digger50 says:

    Bag of Pucks: And Hall does have a history of being dirty when it suits him. He went knee on knee with Clutterbuck intentionally and there was one other dirty play, though the particulars are escaping me at this time.

    I don’t mind a player being unpredictable to create space for themselves. Anderson and Messier were masters at it. But if you’re going to do it, you better be prepared to answer the bell when the opponent drops the gloves. Turning your back on a fight after hitting someone in the face? Imagine someone doing that to you in the real world? You’d lose your collective shit.

    So IF, pretty big IF Hall did that intentionally then his objective was achieved and he fired back at the Oilers organization.

    As this blog always points out, this is just a narrative that I am creating.

    But you sound more upset with Hall than a guy like Thachuk. Strange.

    One other interesting thing. after that game it seemed E s and Nuge played much better, it was if they had to put things to rest , did so and time to move e on hockey wise. I loved watching the clips on Ebs wedding as a reminder that friends are more important than a hockey organization.

  155. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10,

    The OIlers with Chiarelli, McLellan, Hall, and McDavid were far worse than the team was under Todd Nelson without McDavid, and without Hall most of the time.

    Hall and McDavid played exactly 13 games with Klefbom and Sekera each running a pair.

    When McDavid finally came back the playoffs were a distant bell and the top Dmen TOI were Sekera, Fayne, Nurse, Gryba, Reinhart, Oesterle and Clendening.

    They still managed the 10th best Expected Goals rate n the NHL during that time, but the puck wasn’t going in.

  156. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    See edit to prior comment.

    Also, are you comfortable comparing forwards to defensemen? I thought your woodmoney left defensemen out of the elite, middle, gritensity categories?

    Woodmoney leaves out Dmen because they are evaluated differently than forwards in terms of determining which are Elite. Much tougher with Dmen.

    So it really has nothing to do with this conversation.

  157. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: But Hall did it consistantly with the worst defense in the NHL behind him.

    This and the goaltending are soooo under rated as why the team was awful.

    They were pretty much the reason the team was awful.

  158. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: I actually meant this:

    NJD GF

    2015-16 182 (30th)
    2016-17 180 (28th)

    I know why you chose 4 years to argue for Hall’s elite offense. Same reason why I choose 3 to argue against it.

    I chose 4 years because that was the biggest sample available at stats.hockeyanalysis that included 16/17 and I was on my phone so was transcribing numbers instead of cut and pasting.

    What nefarious reason did you assume?

  159. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This and the goaltending are soooo under rated as why the team was awful.

    They were pretty much the reason the team was awful.

    We spent ages waiting for a tape to tape pass from D to F. Ages.

  160. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: I actually meant this:

    NJD GF

    2015-16 182 (30th)
    2016-17 180 (28th)

    NJD points leaders 15/16

    Adam Henrique 50
    Travis Zajac 42
    Lee Stempniak 41
    Mike Cammalleri 38
    Damon Severson 21
    Reid Boucher 19
    John Moore 19
    David Schlemko 19
    Adam Larsson 18
    Joseph Blandisi 17
    Tyler Kennedy 16
    Sergey Kalinin 15
    Jacob Josefson 14
    Andy Greene 13
    Devante Smith-Pelly 13
    Stephen Gionta 11
    Bobby Farnham 10
    Jordin Tootoo 9
    Patrik Elias 8
    Eric Gelinas 6
    Jonathon Merrill 5
    Mike Sislo 4
    Jiri Tlusty 4
    Brian O’Neill 2
    Blake Pietila 2
    Pavel Zacha 2
    Seth Helgeson 1
    Stefan Matteau 1
    Tuomo Ruutu 1
    David Warsofsky 1

    NJD points leaders 16/17
    Taylor Hall 53
    Kyle Palmieri 53
    Travis Zajac 45
    Adam Henrique 40
    Mike Cammalleri 31
    Damon Severson 31
    P.A. Parenteau 27
    Pavel Zacha 24
    John Moore 22
    Beau Bennett 19
    Miles Wood 17
    Andy Greene 13
    Kyle Quincey 12
    Jacob Josefson 10
    Joseph Blandisi 9
    Devante Smith-Pelly 9
    Stefan Noesen 8
    Nick Lappin 7
    Ben Lovejoy 7
    Steven Santini 7
    Jonathon Merrill 6
    Yohann Auvitu 4
    Sergey Kalinin 4
    John Quenneville 4
    Vernon Fiddler 3
    Dalton Prout 3

    What exactly did Hall do wrong?

  161. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: We spent ages waiting for a tape to tape pass from D to F. Ages.

    It hurt to watch

  162. Pescador says:

    Georges: Ummm, the host sets the terms and regularly returns to this particular debate. And asked in this thread about our opinions on extenuating circumstances for Hall’s departure.

    BTW, did NJ get scoring?
    Stop.

    From Hall? Yes. Stop.
    That’s the gamble when you trade.
    But you are correct, the question was asked.
    My answer is no, we shouldn’t comment on these things because we just don’t know what goes on behind closed doors.
    Plus the whole “Taylor Hall is bad, just look at the standings” is complete horse shit

  163. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: Yeah but you are counting that year when Hall’s IPP was 98.

    We know that’s a major outlier and probably represents a career year for Hall.

    Over the last 3 seasons Hall is 25th in PPG and 31 in overall 5 on 5 points for players that have played 3000 minutes.

    That’s pretty decent, but that’s a crowded area when it comes to good players. Lots of company.

    If I wasn’t on my phone I could have gone 5 years back and included his 94 IPP year too.

  164. Munny says:

    godot10: I think you are defining a deontologist incorrectly.Disclaimer: I am a trained physicist dabbling in philosophy.For the deontogogist, the end does not matter in determining the rightness or wrongness of an action. Murder might not always be wrong for a deontologist.Deontology is about right action, not necessarily right results.i.e. Do the right thing, regardless of the consequences.Suspension of the ethical.

    You are right, you’re a dabbler lol. How is “doing the right thing” a suspension of ethics?

    Deontology is not the suspension of ethics but the adherence to an ethical code (no matter the consequences). If murder is not always right to a deontologist it will only be because the exceptions are rules within that ethical code. Oilcanharry had it right.

    You are correct, however, in your assertion that deontology is not the same thing as consequentialism.

  165. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    godot10,

    The OIlers with Chiarelli, McLellan, Hall, and McDavid were far worse than the team was under Todd Nelson without McDavid, and without Hall most of the time.

    Hall and McDavid played exactly 13 games with Klefbom and Sekera each running a pair.

    When McDavid finally came back the playoffs were a distant bell and the top Dmen TOI were Sekera, Fayne, Nurse, Gryba, Reinhart, Oesterle and Clendening.

    They still managed the 10th best Expected Goals rate n the NHL during that time, but the puck wasn’t going in.

    Todd Nelson was playing Marincin, Brandon Davidson, David Musil, Keith Aulie, Nikita Nikitin, and Mark Fayne on defense, behind a first pair of Klefbom and Schultz.

    His forwards including Ryan Hamilton for over 10 games, Matt Fraser, Rob Klinkhammer, and Luke Gazdic

  166. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: You think so?

    I think a team that Hall is the second best player is probably not a top third NHL team unless they have a good handful of guys in that same range.

    Looking back at the Cup Winners since the lockout I don’t see any teams that Hall is inside the top two players.

    Could have been top 3 on Carolina and the 09 Pens.

    Would probably be the fifth best player on the Kings, Bruins, and recent Pens.

    Would have been the 7th best player on those Hawks squads.

    There is a very good argument that “Hall isn’t what he used to be”

    We won’t know until the next 2 years are over, but as recently as 15/16 he was 9th in the NHL in 5v5 pts/60 so I’m not ready to buy that “its over” for him

    Hall gets dinged for not being a good PP guy, or probably more correctly, gets dinged for not playing on a well designed PP.

    If we exclude goalies:

    I rate Hall close to Carter to would have been 2/3 on LAK behind Kopitar/Doughty

    Would have been 3rd on PIT this year and 4th when Letang played

    CHI is a funny one. Toews doesn’t rate at all if you use any kind of counting stats, but he’s The Big Toew so he makes the top 100 ahead of Malkin.

    If you include The Big Toe then probably 4/5 on CHI’s most recent win behind Kane, Big Toew, Keith and tied/ahead of Hossa. I think Hossa was a top 5 NHL for many years, but that was back in the DET/PIT/CHI years, not later CHI years.

    That’s takes us back to 2011 when he was rookie and Boston won.

  167. theDjdj says:

    LT, that Sporting news article is the perfect example of Toronto media bias that engenders hate of the Leafs. All other teams suck and the Leafs can do no wrong. Spare me.

    I do agree that Toronto are making some savvy moves though.

  168. VOR says:

    Munny,

    So Sam Spade was a deontologist?

    At the climax of the Maltese Falcon is one of the most famous lines in detective fiction:

    “When a man’s partner is killed, he’s supposed to do something about it. It doesn’t make any difference what you thought of him. He was your partner and you’re supposed to do something about it. And it happens we’re in the detective business. Well, when one of your organization gets killed, it’s-it’s bad business to let the killer get away with it, bad all around, bad for every detective everywhere.”

  169. Lowetide says:

    theDjdj:
    LT, that Sporting news article is the perfect example of Toronto media bias that engenders hate of the Leafs. All other teams suck and the Leafs can do no wrong. Spare me.

    I do agree that Toronto are making some savvy moves though.

    Really? I thought it was low on the homer scale. Toronto still has some issues to get to, but man did they get a break with that Swedish defender.

  170. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Todd Nelson was playing Marincin,Brandon Davidson, David Musil, Keith Aulie, Nikita Nikitin, and Mark Fayne on defense, behind a first pair of Klefbom and Schultz.

    His forwards including Ryan Hamilton for over 10 games, Matt Fraser, Rob Klinkhammer, and Luke Gazdic

    Klef, Marincin, Davidson trump the other group pretty hard

  171. godot10 says:

    Munny: You are right, you’re a dabbler lol. How is “doing the right thing a suspension of ethics?

    Deontology is not the suspension of ethics but the adherence to an ethical code (no matter the consequences).If murder is not always right to a deontologist it will only be because the exceptions are rules within that ethical code. Oilcanharry had it right.

    You are correct, however, in your assertion that deontology is not the same thing as consequentialism.

    Suspension of the ethical is the suspension of the absolute ethics, of an absolute right and wrong result. The “ethical” in “suspension of the ethical” refers to the result, NOT the process. So deontological ethics involves the potential suspension of the ethical, since one is concerned about right action, not right results.

  172. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Klef, Marincin, Davidson trump the other group pretty hard

    Klefbom and Davidson were rookies. Davidson was playing his first NHL games.

    McLellan basically didn’t try to win in his first season with the OIlers. No adjustments. Play the system and lose. The system is perfect. Play it. It you can’t we’ll get other players.

    That will get one pretty far if the GM can find the players. But the last 10% from marginal contender to contender typical requires tweaking and adjustments.

    Nelson had nothing. But he patched things together and got better results with less than McLellan did the following year with more.

  173. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Klefbom and Davidson were rookies.Davidson was playing his first NHL games.

    And he was miles better than Reinhart, and the other tweeners.

    Better than Oesterle too, who was the best tweener that year.

    Davidson announced his presence with authority.

    Klef was in his 2nd season (after a brief first season) but like 95%+ Dmen who will be good 1st pairing Dmen he was very good very early.

  174. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: And he was miles better than Reinhart, and the other tweeners.

    Better than Oesterle too, who was the best tweener that year.

    Davidson announced his presence with authority.

    Klef was in his 2nd season (after a brief first season)but like 95%+ Dmen who will be good 1st pairing Dmen he was very good very early.

    McLellan had Sekera.

    Half the players on Nelson’s squad are no longer in the NHL, including the defense. He had a worse roster than McLellan’s first year, and a worse roster than Colorado last year.

  175. Duane Hewitt says:

    Passing judgements on someone’s personality is a fairly subjective practice. Very easy for the next guy who doesn’t really know your best friend very well but saw them do some dumb shit years ago to think they are a dick. I’m happy with the team now and don’t personally miss Hall or wish he’d come back but in regards to his personality, I’m more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt when said doubt is pure third party speculation.

  176. Lowetide says:

    Duane Hewitt:
    Passing judgements on someone’s personality is a fairly subjective practice. Very easy for the next guy who doesn’t really know your best friend very well but saw them do some dumb shit years ago to think they are a dick. I’m happy with the team now and don’t personally miss Hall or wish he’d come back but in regards to his personality, I’m more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt when said doubt is pure third party speculation.

    Well said.

  177. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: McLellan had Sekera.

    Half the players on Nelson’s squad are no longer in the NHL, including the defense.He had a worse roster than McLellan’s first year, and a worse roster than Colorado last year.

    I agree that Nelson did a good job.

    I think you under rate McLellan though.

    I not a big McLellan fan, but he’s not bad.

  178. Pescador says:

    Duane Hewitt,

    Lots of people saw me do lots of dumb shit, so I’m rather fond of this post.
    In the end what does it matter? Lots of nice non-winners, lots of jerks that win lots.

  179. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Woodmoney leaves out Dmen because they are evaluated differently than forwards in terms of determining which are Elite.Much tougher with Dmen.

    So it really has nothing to do with this conversation.

    You say defensemen are different from forwards. I say defensemen are different from forwards.

    You say let’s compare Karlsson to Hall. I say, wait, let’s not compare Karlsson to Hall

    You say defensemen being different has nothing to do with the conversation. I say ????

  180. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: NJD points leaders 15/16

    Adam Henrique50
    Travis Zajac42
    Lee Stempniak41
    Mike Cammalleri38
    Damon Severson21
    Reid Boucher19
    John Moore19
    David Schlemko19
    Adam Larsson18
    Joseph Blandisi17
    Tyler Kennedy16
    Sergey Kalinin15
    Jacob Josefson14
    Andy Greene13
    Devante Smith-Pelly13
    Stephen Gionta11
    Bobby Farnham10
    Jordin Tootoo9
    Patrik Elias8
    Eric Gelinas6
    Jonathon Merrill5
    Mike Sislo4
    Jiri Tlusty4
    Brian O’Neill2
    Blake Pietila2
    Pavel Zacha2
    Seth Helgeson1
    Stefan Matteau1
    Tuomo Ruutu1
    David Warsofsky1

    NJD points leaders 16/17
    Taylor Hall53
    Kyle Palmieri53
    Travis Zajac45
    Adam Henrique40
    Mike Cammalleri31
    Damon Severson31
    P.A. Parenteau27
    Pavel Zacha24
    John Moore22
    Beau Bennett19
    Miles Wood17
    Andy Greene13
    Kyle Quincey12
    Jacob Josefson10
    Joseph Blandisi9
    Devante Smith-Pelly9
    Stefan Noesen8
    Nick Lappin7
    Ben Lovejoy7
    Steven Santini7
    Jonathon Merrill6
    Yohann Auvitu4
    Sergey Kalinin4
    John Quenneville4
    Vernon Fiddler3
    Dalton Prout3

    What exactly did Hall do wrong?

    NJD traded for offense. Hall did exactly as expected. NJD got the same offense. It happens.

  181. GMB3 says:

    As if we live in a fantasy world where people called what Hall did not turtling…

  182. Munny says:

    VOR:
    Munny,

    So Sam Spade was a deontologist?

    At the climax of the Maltese Falcon is one of the most famous lines in detective fiction:

    “When a man’s partner is killed, he’s supposed to do something about it. It doesn’t make any difference what you thought of him. He was your partner and you’re supposed to do something about it. And it happens we’re in the detective business. Well, when one of your organization gets killed, it’s-it’s bad business to let the killer get away with it, bad all around, bad for every detective everywhere.”

    I own a hardcover first edition of that book. What makes you think Spade was a deontologist? He refers specifically to the consequences in the famous quote (which isn’t to say he wasn’t a pragmatist over a consequentialist).

  183. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If I wasn’t on my phone I could have gone 5 years back and included his 94 IPP year too.

    I’m pretty sure both of those seasons were fluke city.

    No one has finished as high as 94 IPP since 2013/14 when playing 500 minutes or more.

    I’d look at extremely out there IPP the same way I’d look at a high shooting percentage. If you believe goals are random, I’m not sure how you can view this stat any other way.

    Sometimes you just pass the puck and go for a change and end up with an assist.

  184. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: You say defensemen are different from forwards. I say defensemen are different from forwards.

    You say let’s compare Karlsson to Hall. I say, wait, let’s not compare Karlsson to Hall

    You say defensemen being different has nothing to do with the conversation. I say ????

    You missed an important part.

    I said: “Dmen are evaluated differently in determining which are Elite”

    We are not doing that here.

    We are seeing how each team did with their best player on/off.

  185. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: NJD traded for offense. Hall did exactly as expected. NJD got the same offense. It happens.

    So you’re not questioning it then?

    I’m confused.

  186. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: I’m pretty sure both of those seasons were fluke city.

    No one has finished as high as 94 IPP since 2013/14 when playing 500 minutes or more.

    I’d look at extremely out there IPP the same way I’d look at a high shooting percentage. If you believe goals are random, I’m not sure how you can view this stat any other way.

    Sometimes you just pass the puck and go for a change and end up with an assist.

    Goals are not purely random, but random enough that they don’t predict future goals worth a shit.

    That said, the cummulative IPP leaders since 07-16 (biggest range at puckalytics) are:

    CROSBY, SIDNEY 84.47
    HALL, TAYLOR 83.08
    ELIAS, PATRIK 81.12
    MALKIN, EVGENI 80.88
    SEDIN, DANIEL 80.45
    BENN, JAMIE 80.23
    TARASENKO, VLADIMIR 79.77
    SEDIN, HENRIK 79.66
    KOVALCHUK, ILYA 79.51
    EBERLE, JORDAN 79.27

    Benn’s a good foil for Hall since he acknowledged as the best LW in the game.

    Benn’s last 3 years: 79.1, 76.4, 86.8

    Hall’s last 3 years: 72.2, 84.2, 79.2

    That’s awfully similar…….

  187. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You missed an important part.

    I said: “Dmen are evaluated differently in determining which are Elite”

    We are not doing that here.

    We are seeing how each team did with their best player on/off.

    Still don’t know how to compare forwards and defensemen.

    But, if I have to, I’ll go with the TOI first; Karlsson gave his team about 13% more slightly winning EV minutes than Hall. That adds up.

    Overall, Karlsson played 27:42. Hall played 19:15. Karlsson was 3rd on total TOI for the 3-year period. Hall was 174th.

    Karlsson played 21:58 EV and 4:43 PP and 1:19 SH.

    Hall played 16:21 EV and 2:43 PP and 0:10 SH.

    Edmonton’s PP was better without Hall than with Hall in his last 2 years on the team. That turned around in NJ.

    Ottawa’s PP was better with Karlsson than without Karlsson in 2 of the 3 years. I think his SH time was below 50 minutes in 2014-15. In the other two seasons, Ottawa’s PK was better with Karlsson than without Karlsson.

    Karlsson was 9th in scoring with 219 points. 0.91 P/GP

    Hall was 58th in scoring with 156 points. 0.75 P/GP.

    So, Karlsson, the defenseman, did more of what a first line forward does (generate offense) than Hall, the first line forward, did over the past 3 seasons.

    I don’t always compare Karlsson to Hall. But, when I do, I prefer Karlsson. If you’re willing to make that trade straight up, I’ll take it.

  188. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: So you’re not questioning it then?

    I’m confused.

    You’re confused. I’m confused. Shero’s confused. Only one of us is making GM decisions.

    EDIT: LT calls out Lucic on his 5v5 scoring. Lucic was at 1.22 P60, 124th out of 136 forwards who played 1000 or more 5v5 minutes last year. Hall’s 5v5 P60 last year was 1.64. That was good enough for 81st out of 136. In the first year of the trade, Shero clearly didn’t get the Hall that finished 8th in 5v5 P60 the year before with a 2.31 P60. So, yeah… here’s to better days with more points per 60.

  189. Mr. D. says:

    smellyglove:
    speeds,

    If Leon signs an OS with the Habs, clearly a team in the decline, and for an amount close to what the Oilers would offer, I would perpetually curse the Big German. The team that drafted him, developed him, treated him well, gave him a taste of success early into his career. That’s got to be worth something.

    This is about what you are worth. Loyalty is good if you offer fair markwt value.

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