DAYS OF FUTURE PASSED

Sam Gagner was drafted in the early summer of 2007 and spent part of the next month on skates (Canada-Russia series) impressing his new bosses. By the time he arrived at training camp, he was a big story in a city that badly needed one. Samwise made the team, started the year 12, 1-6-7 in October of 2007. On an unrelated note, Kailer Yamamoto is showing well at the 2017 World Junior Summer Showcase.

YOU’RE KIDDING, RIGHT?

Yes, sort of. Kailer Yamamoto plays RW and the position is uncertain at this time, so there’s a window of opportunity. That said, Edmonton has some interesting options and Yamamoto will turn 19 in late September. He is 5.08, 148 and has ridiculous skill. I have not included him in my RE but would not be shocked to see him in nine NHL games to start the season. Yamamoto and Phil Kemp made the final USA Roster.

Do you think the Oilers 2018 first-rounder is on this list? Will the Oilers pick a player in the first 31 next summer, or deal that pick at the deadline?

That was an amazing day. I know it ended badly, but the one year of Pronger was so beautiful. The Rake calmed the river and gave fans designated bathroom breaks (he and Michael Peca wouldn’t let anything bad happen, so a quick run to the can was easily manageable). I still miss him.

50-MAN ROSTER

  • We are most of the way through the RE forwards and there are no more ‘fringe’ forwards on my list. In doing the RE series, the left wingers and centers are clear, the RW position is several shades of even. That makes it more difficult to separate these players and so the default is dividing TOI about evenly.
  • Also strange is that the C’s (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Strome, Letestu) all get power play time, so Maroon and the right-wingers get the shaft.
  • Lots of interest in my starting lineup yesterday, specifically my listing Ryan Stanton as part of the lineup (over Iiro Pakarinen). My thinking is the Oilers may be in need of more than one extra option to start the season, and specifically penalty killing could be an issue. Stanton did quite a bit of it when he was in the NHL last time, could end up helping again.
  • PK is going to be an issue for both forwards and defensemen. On D, Sekera’s absence (149 minutes 4×5 a year ago) is going to be noticeable based on last season’s SA/60 4×5 stats.

CURRENT RE NUMBERS (FORWARDS)

The top seven forwards will get the bulk of the overall playing time based on my estimates. The push in my model goes to Strome, he’ll receive (imo) plenty of time with 97 and on a soft minutes line. I also project Strome to receive significant PP time, over the likes of Mark Letestu, Jesse Puljujarvi and Anton Slepyshev. There are four forwards to come, I’ll wrap that group up on Saturday and we’ll start the defensemen (there are 12 D) next week. Hoping to wrap up the entire RE series by the end of August.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Darcy will join me for two segments as we drill down on the Oilers roster and talk about specifics.
  • Darrin Bauming, TSN1290 Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers are in an exciting game every weekend and winning more than they lose.
  • Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser. Elway a lifetime Bronco.

10-1260 text @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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40 Responses to "DAYS OF FUTURE PASSED"

  1. JJS says:

    Great series as always LT

    That is an impressive abyss between our number 2 and 3 in terms of RE points.

    A strong second line takes this team to the conference finals last year.

    Would love to see a consistent 65 point player on this team going forward.

  2. Lowetide says:

    JJS:
    Great series as always LT

    That is an impressive abyss between our number 2 and 3 in terms of RE points.

    A strong second line takes this team to the conference finals last year.

    Would love to see a consistent 65 point player on this team going forward.

    They have the Esposito and the Hodge, but the Cashman didn’t get PP time. Maroon could hit 55-60 with PP time, I wonder if he gets a little more love this year.

  3. Ducey says:

    Phil Kemp making the US roster has to be an up arrow. Not bad for a 7th rounder. And he shoots right!

  4. dustrock says:

    Skinner and Wells gotit up hard yesterday

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    dustrock:
    Skinner and Wells gotit up hard yesterday

    Phrasing?

  6. dustrock says:

    Jethro Tull: Phrasing?

    phone trouble sorry. Got lit up hard.

  7. Brantford Boy says:

    I was travelling the world that year 2006, and remember the signings of Pronger and Peca very well… sadly I never got to see either of them in an Oilers jersey, not much hockey in New Zealand and Australia… game 7 of the SCF was all over by the time I got off the train from Moscow to Saint Petersburg. I remember hating Pronger in St. Louis but respected him immensely… to bad the way it all worked out, I miss him too… essentially its taking our two top pair d-men to be that one guy, crazy!

  8. Truth says:

    Also on the USA team is Sean Dhooghe. 5’3″ 147 lbs, according to the Team USA site. That’s incredible, especially considering for someone that size they practically exaggerate size by default.

  9. Ducey says:

    Truth: Sean Dhooghe

    Hockey DB has him at 5’2″ 138 lbs.

    Bet his nickname is Howser. He looks like he is about 14.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=187496

  10. Pescador says:

    dustrock:
    Skinner and Wells gotit up hard yesterday

    That’s some serious locker room reporting.

  11. jm363561 says:

    “I have not included him in my RE but would not be shocked to see him in nine NHL games to start the season.”
    ===========

    Gaudreau is a touch taller and heavier. He played one game in the three seasons after his draft and just turned 21 at the start of his draft +4 breakout season. I really do not expect to see Yamo this year – it would be just too much of a risk.

  12. jtblack says:

    Brantford Boy,

    “game 7 of the SCF was all over by the time I got off the train from Moscow” – I was in Munich watching at 3 a.m. in a pub on a t.v. with No volume …… Still gutted by that loss …

    Yes, Pronger was flat out Amazing … He controlled everything … Closest thing to him right now is Victor Hedman?

    Oilers sched looks a lot tougher to start the year (pre january) …. A lot more Vegas, Col, Az, Van in the last half …

  13. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jm363561:
    “I have not included him in my RE but would not be shocked to see him in nine NHL games to start the season.”
    ===========

    Gaudreau is a touch taller and heavier. He played one game in the three seasons after his draft and just turned 21 at the start of his draft +4 breakout season. I really do not expect to see Yamo this year – it would be just too much of a risk.

    I think Yama needs to fill out a bit, most guys around that height get up to at least ~160 at the NHL level. 10 lbs shouldn’t take him too long.

  14. McNuge93 says:

    jm363561:
    “I have not included him in my RE but would not be shocked to see him in nine NHL games to start the season.”
    ===========

    Gaudreau is a touch taller and heavier. He played one game in the three seasons after his draft and just turned 21 at the start of his draft +4 breakout season. I really do not expect to see Yamo this year – it would be just too much of a risk.

    I agree. Unless he absolutely lights it up in exhibition I don’t see why we need to give him a 10 game trial. It is not like he is a lottery pick. We can afford to slow play him.

  15. Brantford Boy says:

    jtblack:
    Brantford Boy,

    “game 7 of the SCF was all over by the time I got off the train from Moscow” –I was in Munich watching at 3 a.m. in a pub on a t.v. with No volume ……Still gutted by that loss …

    Yes, Pronger was flat out Amazing … He controlled everything … Closest thing to him right now is Victor Hedman?

    Oilers sched looks a lot tougher to start the year (pre january) ….A lot more Vegas, Col, Az, Van in the last half …

    I think Shea Weber is the closest thing to Pronger currently… would not want to see that guy in a dark alley with dropping his hockey gloves or a puck and a drawn back stick… and looking at the schedule yesterday when tickets went on sale I really think February looks brutal with 2 full California road trips… that’s 12 points on the table in away games when they really matter.

    Boy that World Cup in Europe was sure fun times though, no wonder you were in a pub, Prost!

  16. Jethro Tull says:

    Brantford Boy,

    Those California road trips ain’t what they used to be…..

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’d be surprised if Yamamoto saw any regular season games but stranger things have happened.

    What absolutely can’t happen (unless he is lighting it up), is burning a year of his ELC. I haven’t often worried about this in the past (it can often make the second contract cheaper) but our cap structure has changed and what’s imperative going forwards is cheap value contracts that are outperformed – in particular on the wing.

    We need Yamamoto to provide us with 3 years of outperforming that ELC and we cannot use up one of those 3 years unless he is ready to be a contributor (constantly) in the top 6.

  18. russ99 says:

    So ready for the Oilers to stop rushing their first rounder to the bigs every year and screwing up their development curve.

    Let Kailer kick some butt in the WHL another year and he’ll be more ready for a spot next season when we need fill-ins on ELCs.

  19. stush18 says:

    LT I think strome was brought in to play the year as 3c.

    If he manages, they sign maroon and deal nuge.

    If he struggles, nuge is kept and maroon is moved on from.

  20. stush18 says:

    Ducey:
    Phil Kemp making the US roster has to be an up arrow. Not bad for a 7th rounder. And he shoots right!

    LTs scouting report on him read really good on his draft day. I’ve never seen him play, but I think we got a “steal” on that pick. I’m very surprised he wasn’t take me a flier.

  21. Brantford Boy says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Agreed, but away games are away games, not to be taken lightly… I suspect when we get to LT’s February posts we will see expectations of a 2-2 (.500) road trip etc… and then ‘because Oilers’ we will get a 7-2 hammering by the Avs…

  22. stush18 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    +1

    The oilers need to keep filling the gaps with these skilled young forwards. No more burning entry level deals. I understand why they burnt JPs year, but it’s gotta stop now.

  23. Brantford Boy says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    +1… re ELC…

  24. McNuge93 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Jethro Tull,

    Agreed, but away games are away games, not to be taken lightly… I suspect when we get to LT’s February posts we will see expectations of a 2-2 (.500) road trip etc… and then ‘because Oilers’ we will get a 7-2 hammering by the Avs…

    Hopefully the ‘because Oilers’ days are over. I mean, we did beat Arizona last year!

  25. Revolved says:

    LT, I love all the provocative questions you’re asking to keep us all thinking hockey over the summer.

    Have you ever considered embedding polls in some of your posts to keep a running tally of opinions? Could compliment the comments section and give a few strawmen some substance.

    I understand the Deathmarch is trademarked, but it would be interesting to know how many readers give Kailer a 1/100 shot of making the team, for example. Just a thought!

  26. Pescador says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Brantford Boy,

    Those California road trips ain’t what they used to be…..

    I have nothing but fond memories of California last year.
    Regular season anyway

  27. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OmJo:

    Nuge actually took more faceoffs than anybody else (1268) next closes was Drasiaitl (972) and Letestu (896). NHL.com doesn’t break it down into which zones the faceoffs were taken but that’s still a lot of missed opportunities to start the play with the puck… Most of the players with 1000+ faceoffs last season were at or over 50%.

    This from the last thread. Just pointing out that NHL.com does indeed have a faceoffs-by-zone section, it’s way down near the bottom of the dropdown menu under Enhanced Stats. This for Oilers with 100+ faceoffs taken:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=faceoffsbyzone&teamId=22&pos=S&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20162017&filter=faceoffsTaken,gte,100&sort=faceoffWins

    D-zone faceoffs particularly interesting. Leon good, Nuge bad.

  28. Thinker says:

    Does Caggiula play the 4line or get sent down/moved if that is the only roster spot left for him? If Krazr makes the team, is it one or the other?

  29. Bank Shot says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This from the last thread. Just pointing out that NHL.com does indeed have a faceoffs-by-zone section, it’s way down near the bottom of the dropdown menu under Enhanced Stats. This for Oilers with 100+ faceoffs taken:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=faceoffsbyzone&teamId=22&pos=S&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20162017&filter=faceoffsTaken,gte,100&sort=faceoffWins

    D-zone faceoffs particularly interesting. Leon good, Nuge bad.

    What really hurts is RNH’s win percentage on the PK. 32.8%.
    Draisaitl was second worst at 38.9%
    Letestu was at 46.2%.

    Faceoffs matter on the PK.

    In fairness guys like Couture, and Kruger are down there as well. Couture provides much more in other facets of the game though, and Kruger is probably overpaid anyway.

  30. Melman says:

    McNuge93: Hopefully the ‘because Oilers’ days are over. I mean, we did beat Arizona last year!

    They are over. #becauseMcDavid It will take all of us some time to get used to the new norm, but it is here and it is glorious

  31. Bank Shot says:

    Thinker:
    Does Caggiula play the 4line or get sent down/moved if that is the only roster spot left for him? If Krazr makes the team, is it one or the other?

    I think Lowetide is sleeping on Caggiula.

    Drake was on pace for 24.6 points over 82 games last season, and he’s not predicted to crack 25 this year…

    Mclellan likes Drake and I think we see him playing more time with McDavid this season than last.

  32. Thinker says:

    russ99:
    So ready for the Oilers to stop rushing their first rounder to the bigs every year and screwing up their development curve.

    Let Kailer kick some butt in the WHL another year and he’ll be more ready for a spot next season when we need fill-ins on ELCs.

    Didn’t rush Klef or Nurse. Almost rushed Tkachev though. Someone in hockey ops must have a manlet fetish.

  33. VOR says:

    stush18,

    I found your question fascinating.

    How many goals do you not score on the power play if you lose the draw?

    There is, sadly, no easy answer to this question.

    In a six year set of data 2011-2012 through 2016-2107 I compared power play face-offs won and power play goals scored.

    There is a very weak positive correlation – roughly speaking the more power play face-offs you win the more power play goals you score.

    The r squared is .0422 and the p squares is only .10. So the relationship is quite weak and the variation far too likely to occur by chance for me to attach any significance to the finding.

    Think of it this way: if you take the top power play face-off team from 2016-2017 the Anaheim Ducks, who won 294 face-offs in 2016-2017 and compare their power play goals for to the Columbus Blue Jackets who won just 178 power play draws (a whacking 116 face-off win differential) there is only a 5 goal difference in power play goals scored.

    If you do the same analysis with Edmonton and Anaheim you see that the Oilers won just 223 power play face-offs (71 less than Anaheim) yet they outscored Anaheim 56 goals to 47.

    So I tried the same experiment with power play face-off% and power play efficiency. Same sort of result, r squared of .0534 and a p squared of .10. So a weak correlation that almost certainly isn’t significant.

    The effects seem to be somewhat morely correlated if you do a matching pair analysis. I used the top ten teams in each category matched to bottom ten teams in each category (power play scoring and power play efficiency vs power play face off wins and power play face off%. T

    The bottom ten teams in both power play efficiency and power play goals scored tended to be in the bottom ten in one or both of power play face off percentage and power play face off wins for the season. That produced (to keep the statistical analysis consistent) an r squared of .105 and a p squared of .05 which suggests a reasonably strong correlation and one that is statistically significant.

    This same analysis done with teams 1-10 in each category and teams 10-20 showed no correlation at all that I could find (r squared approaching zero and p squared approaching 1).

    I have no idea what all that means. Not even going to guess. But it certainly suggests there isn’t a simple linear relationship between power play face-offs won and lost and the outcome of your power play for most teams, though if you are really bad at face-offs you probably aren’t as good (on average) a power play team as you would be if you killed it on the face-off dot. But there are glaring exceptions like last year’s Oilers team.

    Hope that helps in some way.

    Maybe somebody else can take the ball and run with it. Perhaps I am not framing the question correctly or using the wrong statistical approach.

    My intuition says there should be about a 2 to 3 goal a season difference in Anaheim’s favor between them and the Oilers – though the five seems about right between them and Columbus. That would suggest a weak but important benefit to winning face-offs.

    If anybody has any ideas feel free to share them.

  34. stush18 says:

    VOR,

    I’ll be honest VOR, your math is more than I can work with anymore haha I understand what you’re getting at, but as far as solving the problem, I haven’t a clue.

    I would think a lost faceoff kills your shot at scoring on a PP.

    I suppose the simple answer is you should do all you can to have the best PP as possible, including faceoffs.

  35. Ryan says:

    VOR,

    The basic problem is that there are significant confounding variables that outweigh the impact of winning face offs on power play efficiency.

    There are highly skilled teams like the Oilers that suck at face offs then there are poorly skilled teams like the coyotes who do well on the draw.

    Really, you might find a stronger association with a regression analysis adjusting for shooting percentage.

    Or even looking at face off percentage correlation with shot rate per sixty on the power play.

  36. VOR says:

    Ryan,

    I like shot rate per 60 on the power play. You’d sort of expect it to be correlated with power play face-off %. At least intuitively.

  37. 106 and 106 says:

    Bank Shot,

    Great graph, what stands out is the number of games played by the 4 top FO guys.

    1C CMD- 82
    2C Leon- 82
    3C Nuge – 82
    4C Letestu – 78

  38. rickithebear says:

    PK forwards:
    Caggiula: 1:15 PKTOI/GM last half 1.46 PKGA60
    Pakarinen 1:00 PKTOI/GM 5.44 PKGA60
    Kassian 1:05 PKTOI/GM 5.86 PKGA60
    Jokinen 1:46 PKTOI/GM 6.02 PKGA60
    —————————————————- 6.38 PKGA60 leaue average
    Letestu 2:17 PKTOI/GM 6.76 PKGA60

  39. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    stush18,

    Ryan,

    VOR,

    Excellent discussion gentlemen! Top rate stuff.

    Without any sort of statistical background on my part there two things I’d look to help sharpen this analysis.

    1) Timing of PP goal. In my mind a power play is like a quick moving chess match. It’s easier to find gals get shots/passes through when guys are tired as opposed to when they are fresh. Faceoffs on a PP indicate to me that the PK squad is likely to be fresh and thus harder to beat.

    2) The timing of a line change preceding a PP goal. A well timed line change will allow all your PKers off in such a fashion that everyone will be back and setup as the next rush comes. As we know sometimes the speed of the game doesn’t allow for that. My hunch is that you’d see goals bunched around the timing of line changes (either via rush or because someone didn’t get a change or got back late), you’d need to dig deeper to see how exactly that line change played out though and I don’t know if that data is available.

    Instead of faceoffs as the explanatory variable I’d be looking a lot closer at TOI on any given shift.

    Sure there’s the odd PP goal that is bang bang off a draw but my eye test seems to think that the majority happen a shift or so deep into a PP.

    Just some food for thought.

  40. Jordan says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    My mind was going in to the place SGS.

    You won’t find a strong statistical relationship because what winning those faceoffs provides isn’t a better chance to score on the PP or prevent a goal on the PK. It buys you time. On the PK, it buys you time to change or kill more clock. On the PP, it buys you time to set up a play that may gain you the zone, or a clean chance.

    To actually analyze what effect that win or loss has, you’d need to determine how much time on the PP/PK is gained or lost by a team when on special teams. In my mind, it would be a zero sum game over the course of the game – you either control the puck, or you don’t. Any time where neither team controls the puck would be time lost by both teams.

    If you can quantify the amount of time puck control is lost when you lose a faceoff (defined by how long it takes you to get it back – which I would presume would vary for every team in the league) it would be a lot easier to identify the value of winning a faceoff. Presumably, if you can identify if your team is strong or weak at puck recovery, winning or losing faceoffs may have a greater or lesser value to your team on a relative advantage basis.

    Agreed re: discussion. Very interesting. Puck control and Puck recovery quantification would be interesting avenues for analysis.

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