SUMMER STOCK

In April of 2015, 28 months ago, Peter Chiarelli took over the Edmonton Oilers. His team had more holes than swiss cheese, but he had some trump cards, led by the staggering lottery win just before PC’s arrival. Chiarelli would have strength up the middle in Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Leon Draisaitl, but a defense and goaltending situation that was sadly lacking. What areas could he use to trade his way to a balanced roster? Draft picks, and wingers.

50-MAN ROSTER WHEN CHIARELLI TOOK OVER

  • Peter Chiarelli didn’t have to trade his wingers, dealing off the Nuge or Leon (or both) could have given him improved depth in other areas.
  • He also could have kept all of those draft picks, the ones sent away for Cam Talbot and Griffin Reinhart.
  • He could have dealt Leon Draisaitl in the P.K. Subban deal, kept Taylor Hall and passed on signing Milan Lucic.
  • He could have signed a free-agent goalie instead of trading for Cam Talbot.

What he did was trade the wings and draft picks, then built up the middle in goal and on defense. Further, he moved to replace the wingers sent away via the high draft picks.

CURRENT 50-MAN ROSTER

  • The Oilers now are opposite the entry roster. Peter Chiarelli has built the goaltending and defense while leaving the center position alone.
  • Although Chiarelli receives plenty of criticism for his big moves, there’s also a general acknowledgement that the smaller moves (Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian, Matt Benning, Jussi Jokinen) are impressive and very helpful.
  • There is also the first hints of real balance and depth, and it comes from the blue line. For the first time in one forever, there appears to be a plan to replace older players with internal options. In the summer of 2019, both Andrej Sekera and Kris Russell have a portion of the NMC lifted. At that time, one or more of Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, Ziyat Paigin or Ryan Mantha may be NHL-ready. That’s an impressive bit of building in a short space of time.

I think my view of Peter Chiarelli differs than most people for a couple of reasons.

  1. I’m not terribly concerned with how he builds the Stanley winner, only that it happens. We’ve been over our various opinions on specific trades, but he does have a tendency to do a nice bit of recovery after the fact. The Griffin Reinhart trade didn’t work out, but the Matt Benning signing got PC exactly what he needed (an effective plug and play).
  2. The big consideration for Chiarelli in trade isn’t the price to be paid, it’s the value (to him) of the incoming asset. Perhaps because I saw him work in Boston, the trading of specific players was, and is, expected. I thought Taylor Hall was in a tough spot 2016 summer because his value was higher than the others. I also believe that players who we perceive as being untouchable at this time are in fact available if they are the ask in a deal that brings in a player he values.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi, even Oscar Klefbom. I think he’s still looking for his Chara and that may come into view over the next 12 months. Long way of saying that in the final week of June over the last three seasons, Peter Chiarelli has made a trade that was noxious to much of the fan base. No matter. His team finished with 103-points and the elements added (grit, size, goaltending, defending) have value in his mind.

You can argue Connor McDavid is carrying all of Peter Chiarelli’s mistakes up the pop charts and (as you know) I agree with much of what you say. I’ll tell you honestly: If and when Connor McDavid holds Stanley high, I’m not going to give a rat’s ass about any of it. For me, the goal is the thing, the winning is the deal.

THIS SEASON

We’re getting down to near the end on this summer’s RE series, with the forwards scoring a dozen more goals than the year before and the defense in the same range as 2016-17. I’ll tell you this club should be a strong one but there are darker clouds on the horizon. Another 103-point season is not guaranteed and the goaltending could have a little more wobble than one year ago. I’m reading more and more about ‘this time they’ll get past Anaheim’ and would encourage you to have a quick look at history. Nothing is promised to the 2017-18 Oilers. If you are planning a parade, perhaps you are a little early.

KAILER YAMAMOTO

The signing of Kailer Yamamoto last night puts an interesting spin on the RW depth chart this fall. I’ve mentioned more than a few times the young man has the kind of elite skill set these gifted centers need alongside them. Chemistry is a funny thing, and Kailer Yamamoto strikes me as the kind of guy who is going to push for every inch of daylight made available.

This is going to be fascinating. Many (most) think keeping Yamamoto for nine games (or more) is full crazy, while others are curious and want to see if he can make an impact. For me, there’s zero doubt in my mind Yamamoto can think, skate and create, he has more offensive potential than any other RW coming to camp. The only question is readiness. We wait.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, TSN1260, starting at 10.

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Steve mentioned Waterton being a sublime vacation spot and now it’s overrun with tourists! Also, the Gretzky trade 29 years later and the absolute joy of junior hockey.
  • Sean Tierney, The Athletic  & Hockey Graphs.  Remember the graph from Sean I showed you the other day? It is here. We’ll break it down.
  • Derek Taylor, TSN. Mike Reilly kicks ass coast to coast.
  • Jimmy Morrison, Edmonton Prospects. They won! On to the finals!

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Friday on my mind!

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62 Responses to "SUMMER STOCK"

  1. BONE207 says:

    That’s exactly it to me. Puzzle pieces that fit to complete the big picture is all Pete is worried about. I hope it works.

  2. TO10801 says:

    I’m intrigued by Yamamoto, but remember JP lit up the rookie tournament, but then struggled in pre-season. I think we can reasonably project Yamamoto to play games if he is running close to a point per game and not looking overwhelmed by the time the last couple preseason games roll around. If he is producing similar to what JP did in preseason I think there is no decision but to send him back to Spokane before the start of the season. He may only be 6 months younger than JP, but JP has a full year of pro hockey played (not to mention a couple years against men in Finland). If it comes down to Yamamoto or JP (I think that is the battle) then I would choose JP unless Yamamoto is winning by a substantial margin.

  3. BONE207 says:

    Hey…I beat Original Pouzar. Must be a long weekend for him…woohooo

  4. russ99 says:

    Yup. They don’t give a Cup out for style points, just win baby.

  5. russ99 says:

    TO10801:
    I’m intrigued by Yamamoto, but remember JP lit up the rookie tournament, but then struggled in pre-season. I think we can reasonably project Yamamoto to play games if he is running close to a point per game and not looking overwhelmed by the time the last couple preseason games roll around. If he is producing similar to what JP did in preseason I think there is no decision but to send him back to Spokane before the start of the season. He may only be 6 months younger than JP, but JP has a full year of pro hockey played (not to mention a couple years against men in Finland). If it comes down to Yamamoto or JP (I think that is the battle) then I would choose JP unless Yamamoto is winning by a substantial margin.

    There’s a much larger benefit to keep Yamamoto in the WHL than there was to send Puljujarvi to the AHL last year. If we give the kid his extra junior season it will pay off in the long run.

  6. leadfarmer says:

    I think the smart thing would be to send Yamamoto back to junior. As far as size issues goes some hockey people are thinking that Clayton Keller might win the Calder this year and they are the same age and close to the same size. Its a whole new league now. Speed, speed speed.

  7. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! LT says: “Another 103-point season is not guaranteed”

    – To use your phraseology: “I could give a rats-ass about how many points we get”, just get in.

    – We padded our point total big-time last 10/15 games: vs non-playoff teams. With the benefit of knowing that they had already made the playoffs: 3 wins each against COL, VAN and LA

  8. stush18 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think the smart thing would be to send Yamamoto back to junior.As far as size issues goes some hockey people are thinking that Clayton Keller might win the Calder this year and they are the same age and close to the same size.Its a whole new league now.Speed, speed speed.

    Clayton Keller is closer to eichel than his is to yammer. But fair point.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Comparing the 50 man “roster” from a few years ago to now really shows how this team and its depth has improves – wow.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Does Lagesson’s contract slide while is is loaned to the SEL?

    I don’t think it does but it would be good to have confirmation.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    BONE207:
    Hey…I beat Original Pouzar. Must be a long weekend for him…woohooo

    Dammit!!!!!!!

    I feel shame!

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto:

    Very nice prospect – great pick at #22 as given there are no locks at that number, might as well go for big skill.

    I expect him to light up rookie camp and show well in camp but, aside from maybe a couple of games early in the year, he needs to be destined for Spokane this year.

    It is imperative going forward for this team that we have young forwards on their ELCs and 2nd contracts that are value contracts – we can’t waste a year of Kailer’s cheap ELC unless he is truly ready to perform consistently in the to 6 both with and without 97 on his line.

    He should go dominate the WHL and the WJHC and come to camp next year ready to turn pro and compete for a spot in the top 6 (or ready to work on the pro game playing top 6 in Bakersfield).

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!LT says: “Another 103-point season is not guaranteed”

    – To use your phraseology: “I could give a rats-ass about how many points we get”, just get in.

    – We padded our point total big-time last 10/15 games: vs non-playoff teams. With the benefit of knowing that they had already made the playoffs: 3 wins each against COL, VAN and LA

    Sure, we had those wins against non-playoff teams in the last quarter of the season but doesn’t that also mean that we were full value for our points accumulated prior to that, playing against playoff teams?

  14. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, we had those wins against non-playoff teams in the last quarter of the season but doesn’t that also mean that we were full value for our points accumulated prior to that, playing against playoff teams?

    – What I’m trying to say is that if we get only say 98 points next year, I don’t think we should be hung up on the fact that we were 5 points less than last year

    – We won’t be a surprise to anyone next year, Sek’s absence will effect our D corps more than most anticipate I believe.

    – I’m just mentally preparing myself for the “we didn’t get 103 points this year, Chia is a moron, this team is regressing, our coach can’t take teams to the Cup” type stuff.

    – It wouldn’t surprise me if we post 110 points, or 95 and barely get into the playoffs.

    – The only way we don’t make the playoffs is an injury to McD IMO. I’d be surprised if McD plays more than 70 games and we aren’t playoffs

    – It’s going to be a fun year: with expectations of getting past 2nd round of playoffs…

    * and to your point: I doubt we have a 13-3-1 run or whatever it was at the end of the year: we were playing with house money, and humming along for awhile with no pressure: playoffs assured: it won’t be the same I don’t think

  15. Truth says:

    After what Oilers fans have been through I would absolutely take one cup. However, with McDavid the goal should be numerous cups. I think trades such as the Reinhart blunder affect the ability for this team to win multiple cups.

    With having somewhat of a vested interest in Strome since day one (friend of a friend, or something like that) I would have been jumping for joy if he was acquired 2-3 years ago. I’ve watched a lot of Islanders games because of it. Currently I see that trade as a straight salary dump of Eberle for a player in Strome who could have been acquired for “free” in FA instead. I sincerely hope it’s a player confidence or team’s confidence in the player issue and that is rectified.

    I agree with LT that we are all wanting a cup, but one of the best players of all times should give a great opportunity for a few of them if the team is managed properly.

  16. Rake 2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’d add klefbom and talbot to your list of injuries that would derail our season.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – What I’m trying to say is that if we get only say 98 points next year, I don’t think we should be hung up on the fact that we were 5 points less than last year

    – We won’t be a surprise to anyone next year, Sek’s absence will effect our D corps more than most anticipate I believe.

    – I’m just mentally preparing myself for the “we didn’t get 103 points this year, Chia is a moron, this team is regressing, our coach can’t take teams to the Cup” type stuff.

    – It wouldn’t surprise me if we post 110 points, or 95 and barely get into the playoffs.

    – The only way we don’t make the playoffs is an injury to McD IMO.I’d be surprised if McD plays more than 70 games and we aren’t playoffs

    – It’s going to be a fun year: with expectations of getting past 2nd round of playoffs…

    * and to your point: I doubt we have a 13-3-1 run or whatever it was at the end of the year: we were playing with house money, and humming along for awhile with no pressure: playoffs assured: it won’t be the same I don’t think

    I don’t disagree with most of your post.

    I’m generally one of the more optimistic Oiler fans going in to the season – I definitely was over the decade of darkness but, for some reason, its the opposite for me going in to this season.

    Don’t get me wrong, the Oilers have turned a corner and are now a good/competitive team but, at the same time, I can see a step back this year in the standings.

    They were actually full value for their place in the standings last year – they were 8th to 12th from start to finish and in that range for most team stats and had an excellent goal differential – with that said, can they repeat that or improve on it?

    I’m not used to not having a big roster turnover and generally coming back with the same team. Maybe my “issue” is that I’m not used to relying solely on internal development for improvement.

    I’m concerned about Reggie being out and an injury to Larsson or Klef before he is back.

    If Leon isn’t signed before camp starts and isn’t in the lineup or at full speed for game 1 I fear the Oilers may struggle early and not take advantage of that early soft schedule.

    I don’t think playoffs are a lock.

    I think they should make the playoffs and should battle for the division but fighting for a wild card is also not out of the realm of possibility.

    They were so damn healthy last year – we already have a more material injury than we did at any point last year.

    I’m excited and I’m scared!

    I love this game!

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rake 2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’d add klefbom and talbot to your list of injuries that would derail our season.

    Before Reggie comes back, absolutely!

  19. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Rake 2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’d add klefbom and talbot to your list of injuries that would derail our season.

    – McD putting up 110 points covers a lot as LT says

    – Sure if Kelf is out while Reg is: but same result for any team who lose 2 of top 4 D.

    – We just need average goalering to be playoffs. Talbot isn’t all that: he’s good to be sure, but a little less good goalering, and we are still playoffs IMO

  20. Thinker says:

    To be fair, there was a plan to replace players before, it was just a stupid one. “Jeff Petty has played a season and a half in the NHL, so we can get rid of gilbert.”

  21. leadfarmer says:

    stush18: Clayton Keller is closer to eichel than his is to yammer. But fair point.

    Keller is 2 months older 2 inches taller and 15 lbs heavier than Yamamoto.

    Eichel is almost 2 years older, 4 inches taller and 35lbs heavier than Keller

  22. Visually better says:

    Question for the group, and you LT.

    Do you think it’s possible chiarelli is leaving this large amount of cap space knowing that he has the potential for a lot of bonus money and wants to leave the option of Yamamoto making the squad and covering his potential bonus’? Would have never thought this until reading bob’s tweet yesterday but here we are.

    I am also in the group weary of having him play an extended amount of games with us, but when you think about who he has the potential to play with; it gets you thinking.. I always loved the idea of draisaitl and puljujarvi playing together; I think they could be dynamite.

    Nuge mcdavid yamamoto
    slepy draisaitl puljujarvi
    Lucic strome kassian
    maroon khaira caggulia
    Letestu
    Jokinen

    Obviously a long shot but if you wanna talk about unicorns…

    Lt: it cannot be overstated how amazing it has been to open up this blog everyday.. the work you have put in this summer and every other summer allows us to stay connected to the team and learn so much. Thank you.

  23. Ducey says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Does Lagesson’s contract slide while is is loaned to the SEL?

    I don’t think it does but it would be good to have confirmation.

    Nope. ELC’s only slide if the player signs when he is 18 or 19. Lagesson signed when he was 21.

    And he is “performing” a year of his contract as the contract has a European assignment clause for this season. So he will need to play in North America next season, at which point he will be in year 2 of his 3 year ELC.

  24. stush18 says:

    leadfarmer: Keller is 2 months older 2 inches taller and 15 lbs heavier than Yamamoto.

    Eichel is almost 2 years older, 4 inches taller and 35lbs heavier than Keller

    I meant skill wise. Keller is hyped so heavy for a reason. If he’s sheltered properly this year and plays PP he will have the best shot at the Calder imo

  25. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think the smart thing would be to send Yamamoto back to junior.As far as size issues goes some hockey people are thinking that Clayton Keller might win the Calder this year and they are the same age and close to the same size.Its a whole new league now.Speed, speed speed.

    Clayton Keller is bigger than Yamamoto and he has played a year in college against mostly 20-somethings, rather than just teenagers.

  26. godot10 says:

    I will be happy if the Oilers win a Stanley Cup. #EvenBylsmaWonACupWithCrosby

    I would have been happier if the Oilers had won a Cup with Taylor Hall.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ducey: Nope. ELC’s only slide if the player signs when he is 18 or 19. Lagesson signed when he was 21.

    And he is “performing” a year of his contract as the contract has a European assignment clause for this season. So he will need to play in North America next season, at which point he will be in year 2 of his 3 year ELC.

    Good to know – thank you.

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10:
    I will be happy if the Oilers win a Stanley Cup.#EvenBylsmaWonACupWithCrosby

    I would have been happier if the Oilers had won a Cup with Taylor Hall.

    Still possible. Hall could resign with the Oil as a UFA. He says his next contract will be all about who gives him the best shot to chase the Cup as opposed to just a cash grab.

    Oil should be a serious Cup contender then.

    Wouldn’t it be something if they buy out Lucic in 2 or years and reacquire Hall on a bargain contract.

    Stranger things have happened: Comrie’s return, etc.

  29. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Still possible. Hall could resign with the Oil as a UFA. He says his next contract will be all about who gives him the best shot to chase the Cup as opposed to just a cash grab.

    Oil should be a serious Cup contender then.

    Wouldn’t it be something if they buy out Lucic in 2 or years and reacquire Hall on a bargain contract.

    Stranger things have happened: Comrie’s return, etc.

    I don’t think “Marty Schottenheimer” is a Hall fan. Of course, if the Oilers have not won a Cup by the time Hall is a UFA, “Schottenheimer” will probably be long gone as coach.

  30. dustrock says:

    I think your look at Chiarelli is pretty balanced, LT.

    Yes, McDavid raises everybody in the entire organization.

    But having him as the Ace of Spades also means you can trade guys like Hall to achieve balance.

    The problem (or one of them) with the Seguin trade is that Chia had a pretty solid lineup with some possible HOFers so why mess it up by trading your guy who was at worst going to be your 10 year #2 center behind Bergeron? He should have traded Krejci, if he had to make a trade.

    But the reason he got his teeth kicked in for the trade is that they talked about Seguin “not fitting in”, which just makes the entire organization look dumb.

    He gets gifted McDavid and has the opportunity to drastically reshape the roster, but the Oilers have needed a RHD since at the least Petry, if not before, and when you’re desperate, you’ll pay a higher price.

    He gets the blame but Katz, Lowe, Mac T and Tambo deserve a bigger share.

    Plus, then you get the fact that 29 other teams see the Oilers get Connor McDavid.

    Who is going to rush to help out that franchise?

    So they can win multiple Cups at your expense?

  31. OF17 says:

    I found a game for WoodGuy

    http://gameofhands.net/index.html

  32. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10:
    I will be happy if the Oilers win a Stanley Cup.#EvenBylsmaWonACupWithCrosby

    I would have been happier if the Oilers had won a Cup with Taylor Hall.

    – This: thanks: a pithy summary of a year of angst. Awesome. That’s what is boils down to really

  33. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: Clayton Keller is bigger than Yamamoto and he has played a year in college against mostly 20-somethings, rather than just teenagers.

    Hence I said the smart thing is to send him back although his competition will once again be teenagers. I would put the odds of him playing 9 games at 1% and more than 9 games at 1% but our host here keeps writing about Yamamoto might get a very long look so I play along.

  34. verite says:

    This team would be dreadful if Hall, Eberle and RNH were still on it.
    Accept reality , they are heartless and gutless.

  35. Lowetide says:

    verite:
    This team would be dreadful if Hall, Eberle and RNH were still on it.
    Accept reality , they are heartless and gutless.

    Well reasoned, backed up with math and sourced. Well done! 🙂 I don’t agree with any of your words.

  36. frjohnk says:

    verite:
    This team would be dreadful if Hall, Eberle and RNH were still on it.
    Accept reality , they are heartless and gutless.

    Hugs Pumpkin

  37. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer: Keller is 2 months older 2 inches taller and 15 lbs heavier than Yamamoto.

    Eichel is almost 2 years older, 4 inches taller and 35lbs heavier than Keller

    Ya but,
    Eichel is 2.1years older, plus 6″ taller and 40lbs heavier then Kailer, did you consider that?

  38. Pescador says:

    verite,

    Weak bait

  39. Pescador says:

    Lowetide: Well reasoned, backed up with math and sourced. Well done! I don’t agree with any of your words.

    I hope your comment was “awaiting moderation” like mine currently is!

  40. leadfarmer says:

    Pescador: Ya but,
    Eichel is 2.1years older, plus 6″ taller and 40lbs heavier then Kailer, did you consider that?

    Yeah thats why i said that Keller isnt closer to Eichel. He is pretty close to Yamamoto size wise.

  41. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yamamoto:

    Very nice prospect – great pick at #22 as given there are no locks at that number, might as well go for big skill.

    I expect him to light up rookie camp and show well in camp but, aside from maybe a couple of games early in the year, he needs to be destined for Spokane this year.

    It is imperative going forward for this team that we have young forwards on their ELCs and 2nd contracts that are value contracts – we can’t waste a year of Kailer’s cheap ELC unless he is truly ready to perform consistently in the to 6 both with and without 97 on his line.

    He should go dominate the WHL and the WJHC and come to camp next year ready to turn pro and compete for a spot in the top 6 (or ready to work on the pro game playing top 6 in Bakersfield).

    +1
    What the hell is wrong with a player graduating from junior and spending at least 1 season in the minors? (Oilers Kryptonite)
    Makes a guy hungrier IMO
    Leon: Exhibit A

  42. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer: Yeah thats why i said that Keller isnt closer to Eichel.He is pretty close to Yamamoto size wise.

    I got what you were saying, I was being an ass.
    Did you consider that?
    😁

  43. Yegfoundation says:

    Lowetide: Well reasoned, backed up with math and sourced. Well done! I don’t agree with any of your words.

    Not defending the original post, but I will add that more than 1 coach has commented on Hall’s lack of commitment to a team game, which i expect was one of the reason’s the current Coach and GM choose to trade him. Additionally, i believe this is why the return for Hall was lower than desired by the Math people who do not measure or value these attributes. We also had a comment from Oscar that Hall put up points against the easy teams or when the game was out of reach, but that when they faced a tough team or were in a close game, he disappeared. Based on that comment, Oscar was telling us Hall wasn’t a player that he wanted to have on his team when they made the playoffs.

    In regards to Eberle, we have an experienced and successful coach who was not at all happy with what he Eberle provided to the team on a nightly basis. Despite numerous chances to do the things the coach asked him to do, he either could not, or would not, do those things. Furthermore, in the playoffs, when winning puck battles requires even more commitment and determination, Eberle had maybe the worst stretch of his career, and scored 0 points in 13 games.

    Nuge, like Eberle, was not a difference maker in the playoffs, only producing 1 point in 13 games.

    I spent many years feeling that Hall, Ebs, Nuge only needed good supporting players to shine and be stars on their teams, facing the other teams best players, and out producing them. After last years results, I no longer believe this to be the case. Whether these players were ruined by being thrown into the deep end with no support, or whether they lack commitment/character because of too much money, too soon, doesn’t really matter at this point. All of these players had a clean slate with a highly regarded new GM and Coach, and the decision was to move on, even if the return wasn’t substantial. I have the evidence i require to support the Hall and Eberle trades (and Nuge if that comes).

  44. Lowetide says:

    Yegfoundation: I thought Nuge had an effective playoffs. You want more offense certainly but his role was a big one and he performed it well imo.

  45. Yegfoundation says:

    Lowetide,

    LT: Did Nuge have an adequate playoffs or was he a difference maker? If that is what Nuge brings us each playoffs, can we agree that this team can win without him?

  46. Lowetide says:

    Yegfoundation:
    Lowetide,

    LT:Did Nuge have an adequate playoffs or was he a difference maker?If that is what Nuge brings us each playoffs, can we agree that this team can win without him?

    Nuge played well, I’m not sure either adequate or difference maker describes it. He was snake bit (33 shots, zero goals) but the things he does well (marking his man, being in good position) were on display. I have no problem defending Nuge and his playoff, with the understanding that I spent most games expecting one of those 33 shots to find the range.

  47. anjinsan says:

    In the draft of 2015 the stars aligned for Chiarelli to build a team that would dominate for years. There were serious 1st round grade players satisfying areas of strategic need practically to the end of the 2nd round. Kylington could have been had at #57, for example. LT, you don’t care how the Oilers get there. What I saw was that they had the excellent chance to get there and stay there for years, if our Harvard GM mined the draft properly. Imagine if 2015 had netted McDavid, Barzal, Carlo, Kylington, Tomek, Jones, Bear, Korostelev, and Paigin. We wouldn’t have Talbot, but we could have just signed Neuvirth and we might now have Bishop.

    To his credit, Chiarelli’s small moves have been excellent on the whole.

  48. Lowetide says:

    anjinsan:
    In the draft of 2015 the stars aligned for Chiarelli to build a team that would dominate for years.There were serious 1st round grade players satisfying areas of strategic need practically to the end of the 2nd round.Kylington could have been had at #57, for example.LT, you don’t care how the Oilers get there.What I saw was that they had the excellent chance to get there and stay there for years, if our Harvard GM mined the draft properly.Imagine if 2015 had netted McDavid, Barzal, Carlo, Kylington, Tomek, Jones, Bear, Korostelev, and Paigin.We wouldn’t have Talbot, but we could have just signed Neuvirth and we might now have Bishop.

    To his credit, Chiarelli’s small moves have been excellent on the whole.

    He got Talbot for some of those picks and I think the Flames would have made that trade all day if it had been made available to them. That 2015 draft was and is a monster, so there’s no argument against your points in that regard.

  49. McNuge93 says:

    anjinsan:
    In the draft of 2015 the stars aligned for Chiarelli to build a team that would dominate for years.There were serious 1st round grade players satisfying areas of strategic need practically to the end of the 2nd round.Kylington could have been had at #57, for example.LT, you don’t care how the Oilers get there.What I saw was that they had the excellent chance to get there and stay there for years, if our Harvard GM mined the draft properly.Imagine if 2015 had netted McDavid, Barzal, Carlo, Kylington, Tomek, Jones, Bear, Korostelev, and Paigin.We wouldn’t have Talbot, but we could have just signed Neuvirth and we might now have Bishop.

    To his credit, Chiarelli’s small moves have been excellent on the whole.

    I’d rather have Talbot. Questioning that trade is new territory. And no need for Kylington. No disagreement on the Reinhardt trade but no GM wins all his trades.

  50. Yegfoundation says:

    Lowetide,

    Lowetide,

    Fair enough, thanks LT. The only other thing I’ll add is that at some point shots aren’t good enough and you need results. Nuge could have converted some of those shots, and helped the Oiler’s get through the second round, but the fact is that he did not. I have to ask myself why couldn’t he score in the playoffs, and is it wise to bet on him a second time and expect a different outcome? Is he too slight or too timid to get to the difficult area’s to put the puck in the net when the space in around the net is more contested in the playoffs?

    Oiler Center playoff goals:

    Leon = 6
    Connor = 5
    Letestu = 5
    Nuge = 0

    As you’ve said, being a GM is about making bets. Does a smart GM make another bet on Eberle and Nuge after last years season’s and playoffs? I can find good reason to not make that bet again.

  51. Professor Q says:

    verite:
    This team would be dreadful if Hall, Eberle and RNH were still on it.
    Accept reality , they are heartless and gutless.

    Although technically Pisani was the only truly gutless Oiler…colitis is a terrible thing. As are related diseases, of course.

  52. stush18 says:

    Yegfoundation,

    Nuge not scoring cost them moving on.

    And nuge is my favourite oiler along with maroon. Whether or not it was because of ebs and pouliot/lucic well have to see.

    I think you run mcdavid and nuge together. It gives mcdavid more freedom to roam and gives nuge some freebie points.

    Also I’m hoping they sign one more centre, or trade for one with one of the younger wingers.

    Maroon-mcdavid-strome
    Lucic-nuge-drai

    Is a deadly top six to my eyes. I’m thinking we’ll see this combo later in the year.

  53. OmJo says:

    Yegfoundation,

    PP TOI for those centres

    McDavid: 43:53
    Draisaitl: 42:20
    Letestu: 42:17
    Nuge: 27:30

    SH TOI

    Nuge: 37:51
    Letestu: 32:16
    McDavid: 20:42
    Draisaitl: 4:08

  54. digger50 says:

    Yegfoundation: barely

    So let me get this right. If Hall says anything it is lack of commitment. If Oscar is slandering his teammates it’s is the evidence you need. Correct?

  55. VOR says:

    I keep reading how 2015 was such a great draft year, and there was a generational talent and a second truly outstanding player at the top, along with some nice depth but lets try to keep some perspective. The first number in this table is the year of the draft. The second is total games played by players drafted that year (career to date). The third number is years of NHL play since draft year. Finally we see the average number of games played by players taken in this draft year on an annual basis.

    2003 43680 14 3120
    2004 33274 13 2560
    2005 27750 12 2313
    2006 23160 11 2105
    2007 20928 10 2093
    2008 22154 9 2462
    2009 20920 8 2615
    2010 14456 7 2065
    2011 13338 6 2223
    2012 8645 5 1729
    2013 5589 4 1397
    2014 2745 3 915
    2015 1444 2 722
    2016 342 1 342

    Obviously the 2015 class is still recruiting members who will eventually play games in the NHL. However, this process typically only lasts for 5 to 6 seasons post draft year.

    I think it is going to be very unlikely that 2015 will turn out to produce more games of NHL play than 2003. I don’t think it will be as good by this metric as 2009, 2004, or 2008 either. In fact, the algorithm for forecasting recruitment of members of a draft class by year says that 2015 will probably rank between 2005 and 2011 in total games played.

    2015 is also not going to put as many players into the NHL as 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, or 2011. So while it is obviously in the top half of drafts over the last 14 years it is by no manner of means truly outstanding by either games played or players who made the NHL.

    To put this in context, after two full NHL seasons (2005 and 2006 seasons) had passed 91 players from the 2003 draft had played at least one game in the NHL and they had produced just under 6,000 games (5,937). The similar numbers for 2015 are 38 and 1444

  56. Lowetide says:

    VOR: How much of a factor would the lockout season be in this regard? Seems to me there’s an entire year of development available in your model because of the year the NHL went dark. That has to skew things a great deal (unless I’ve misunderstood and that is possible).

  57. VOR says:

    LT,

    That lock-out year is a huge asterisk. It works in two ways. The first is it gave the players an extra year to develop. The second is that it lead to a stunning loss of players. There were both a lot of retirements and a large number of players who decided they could make as much or more back home and have a way better lifestyle.

    This is why I struggle to rank it among the best drafts of all time. It needs to be there somewhere, because no matter how much of a leg up the 2003 draft got the players delivered once they reached the NHL.

    If 2015 was tracking close to any of the other good years in this last 14 (2004, 2008, 2009, 2005, or even 2011) then maybe I could forgive people the hyperbole. But it isn’t. I just used 2003 as the gold standard because it is in range with the other great drafts of all time, and it is the only modern draft that is in that elite class. I just wanted to give people an idea of just how far the draft class of 2015 would have to advance to be in any discussion of top ten drafts.

  58. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    LT,

    That lock-out year is a huge asterisk. It works in two ways. The first is it gave the players an extra year to develop. The second is that it lead to a stunning loss of players. There were both a lot of retirements and a large number of players who decided they could make as much or more back home and have a way better lifestyle.

    This is why I struggle to rank it among the best drafts of all time. It needs to be there somewhere, because no matter how much of a leg up the 2003 draft got the players delivered once they reached the NHL.

    If 2015 was tracking close to any of the other good years in this last 14 (2004, 2008, 2009, 2005, or even 2011) then maybe I could forgive people the hyperbole. But it isn’t. I just used 2003 as the gold standard because it is in range with the other great drafts of all time, and it is the only modern draft that is in that elite class. I just wanted to give people an idea of just how far the draft class of 2015 would have to advance to be in any discussion of top ten drafts.

    I always like to wait five years, but your information is interesting.

  59. VOR says:

    LT,

    I think each draft class has its own unique arc. Some peak early and then essentially flat line. Others march on with the first five or six years (in one case seven years) adding new players of note. Some look great because they have a bunch of players whose careers go on and on. 1988 for example is one of those years that produced a lot of long career players (8 of the top 100 longest careers in hockey history).

    I am not sure I can fairly judge them decades after the fact, so five years looks like a reasonable wait. But so many people make these bold pronouncements that I have started working out ways of forecasting some key metrics, games played, points, goals, # of players to at least play 1 game, etc. I need two years of data to have any hope and of course any prediction I make for 2015 will get stronger as I get more years of data. Right now I can see things like how many players the class of 2015 needs to graduate to the NHL to get on pace to catch years where I have way more data (2005 say). Then I can run likeliness tests to see how likely that is to happen.

  60. GMB3 says:

    Yegfoundation,

    RNH had 4 points in 13 games. Don’t be a mouth breather

  61. GMB3 says:

    Yegfoundation:
    Lowetide,

    Lowetide,

    Fair enough, thanks LT.The only other thing I’ll add is that at some point shots aren’t good enough and you need results.Nuge could have converted some of those shots, and helped the Oiler’s get through the second round, but the fact is that he did not.I have to ask myself why couldn’t he score in the playoffs, and is it wise to bet on him a second time and expect a different outcome?Is he too slight or too timid to get to the difficult area’s to put the puck in the net when the space in around the net is more contested in the playoffs?

    Oiler Center playoff goals:

    Leon = 6
    Connor = 5
    Letestu = 5
    Nuge = 0

    As you’ve said, being a GM is about making bets.Does a smart GM make another bet on Eberle and Nuge after last years season’s and playoffs?I can find good reason to not make that bet again.

    I feel like if you ever played sports at a reasonable level you would understand what a sample size is and how a guy can have a run of bad luck, you don’t even need to be a “math guy”. I may be misremembering but A-rod and Barry Bonds struggled in their first playoffs.

  62. Munny says:

    Wow. The putdown posts from GMB3 remain, but my pointing out the first one’s insulting nature doesn’t?

    And the one where I merely disagreed with your stance, LT and agreed with VOR’s for some reason is pulled. Over a disagreement? Again, wow.

    Sorry, was expecting this one to go into moderation, didn’t mean for it to be public. Feel free to delete it.

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