RIESEN TO BELIEVE (SECOND VERSE)

There have been a few changes in odds since we last looked at the projected 2017-18 roster a couple of weeks ago (here), including Kailer Yamamoto’s signing and some additional defensive options. College free agents and PTO invites still to come, but we’re reaching the end of summer and have this roster surrounded. Each player listed with chances of making opening night lineup expressed as a percentage. The big jump this time is Kailer Yamamoto, who is now signed and (I believe) the most skilled young winger in the system. That may impact training camp.

THE FORWARDS

  1. C Connor McDavid, 20. Already amazing, he’s just getting started. The guides are starting to come out, my 110-point projection seems conservative now. Team altering, league altering, mind-altering hockey player.  100%.
  2. C-R Leon Draisaitl, 21. Leon’s contract should be signed in the next three weeks and then we can commence arguing where he should play. My bet remains 70 percent with The One, 30 percent with regular humans. 100%. 
  3. L Patrick Maroon, 29. Can he score 30 in contract year? The Oilers kept him away from the power play a year ago, would be wise to do that again. 100%. 
  4. L Milan Lucic, 29. If he can score 50 points again no one will worry how but I’ll bet a 2-4 the big man rallies his 5×5/60 in a substantial way. Lucic had a breakout power-play season and was shooting well a year ago, hope those things return for a second year. 100%.
  5. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 24. I keep reading about increasing his offense, but the young man’s offense would spike instantly with more power-play time. His 5×5 offense has never been a feature of this player, and he’s behind McDavid on the 5×4. If we’re honest, this player is probably more effective on a team in need of a brilliant power-play center. 100%.
  6. C-R Ryan Strome, 24. He will never get a better chance to cover draft bet and if he gets to spend the year with McDavid he could post a fantastic number. Almost impossible to project this player, I have him at 40 points and saw 72 projected yesterday. The power of McDavid is real. 100%.
  7. L Drake Caggiula, 23. The first pro season was a blur and featured playing through an injury and lining up out of position at center. The biggest wildcard of the young guns, he might end up just about anywhere in the lineup. 100%.
  8. R Zack Kassian, 26Big man plays the Chiarelli style, posts crooked numbers 5×5 and does it from the depths of the batting order. He is a valuable player and there’s a chance he steps up into more of a feature role in the coming season. 100%.
  9. L Jussi Jokinen, 34. If he could play 30 minutes a night and double shift, I expect Todd McLellan might oblige. He could play anywhere and I think we’ll see an offensive recovery from the veteran. He can also create a legacy role by helping Jesse Puljujarvi adjust to the NHL game. 100%.
  10. RC Mark Letestu, 32. I think his role may be reduced on the power play this season, with Strome or possibly Slepyshev taking some of his time. Letestu can still help out in other areas and his righty faceoffs give the team much needed depth in that area. 100%.
  11. R Anton Slepyshev, 23. Every time I talk about Slepyshev getting sent out, there’s a major reaction. That’s good, the big Russian winger has a loyal group based on merit. My having him at 90 percent is strictly due to his being ineligible for waivers, and that is a consieration entering camp. Suspect he makes the team and I do think he has 15-goal potential if he gets with the right center in 2017-18. 90%.
  12. R Jesse Puljujarvi, 19. The young Finn will get a full shot with a skill center and might (I’m not projecting it) get a long look on the 5×4. He’s the tailgate lottery pick for a McDavid cluster that includes Leon Draisaitl. Major importance that he arrives, either as an impact scorer or effective outscorer in the next couple of seasons. 90%.
  13. L Jujhar Khaira, 23. The Oilers like his size, speed and grit, and I think he’ll break camp with the big club. However, he is going to have to bring some offense and the signing of Jokinen confuses the issue. 69%.
  14. R Iiro Pakarinen, 25. He has many of the same skills as Slepyshev, except in lesser amounts. McLellan likes him and he has a chance. 40%.
  15. LC Brad Malone, 28. Malone can play center, wins faceoffs, penalty kills and it won’t hurt him to sit in the pressbox for long stretches. Edmonton signed him early in free agency, possibly for his ability to slip through waivers and back again. 30%.
  16. R Ty Rattie, 24. Rattie is a goal-scoring option, wonder if the Oilers feel like he could be a hidden gem. There’s a sliver of a chance here, he’ll have to be better than all the NHL kids and Yamamoto. 25%.
  17. R Kailer Yamamoto, 18. Electric skills and he can score goals. A small winger, he will impress if given chances. If he is here late in camp, the club may give him nine games. I have increased his chances since our last look. 25%.
  18. R Mitch Callahan, 25. Consistent AHL performer, he brings skill with some physical play and that combination appeals to the Oilers. He may show very well in camp. 15%.
  19. L Joey Laleggia, 25. He is a long shot but what he brings is very valuable. If we see him getting some time with the NHLers and extra games in pre-season, we’ll have a story. 10%.
  20. C Joe Gambardella, 23. He is not a high end prospect but could emerge as an NHL option (over time, likely a season or two). I’ll give him a slight chance to slide into a useful utility role at the back of the roster. 6%.

DEFENSE

  1. L Oscar Klefbom, 24. He’s emerging as a stronger offensive option than was once projected and is able to play capably in 22 minutes a night. Can he stretch it out to 25 minutes and remain effective? 100%.
  2. R Adam Larsson, 24. Larsson is an excellent partner for Klefbom and was rock steady for much of last season. I think he’ll see more time in 2016-17, at evens and on PK. 100%.
  3. L Andrej Sekera, 31. How long will he be out? Will he be 100 percent upon return? Oilers don’t seem to be panic stricken over it, would love to know the prognosis.  If he comes back early, and 100 percent, this Oilers team suddenly looks balanced. 0.
  4. L Kris Russell, 30. The big question appears to be which side will he play until Sekera returns? My guess is LH side with Matt Benning. One of the big items from a year ago was his ‘running luck’ and he did regress later in the year. The dice have no memory, so which version of Russell do the Oilers get this coming season 100%.
  5. R Matt Benning, 23. He is going to get a push, both at evens and on the power play. I’m of a mind that signing him to his second deal a-sap is a good plan. If he steps forward even a little from last season, we’re dealing with a monumental find. 100%.
  6. L Darnell Nurse, 22. The math people I respect tell me top flight defensemen make themselves known early, ala Matt Benning. I always like to wait five years and this will be No. 5 for Nurse. I’m looking forward to seeing how this plays out. Note: Darnell Nurse is almost a year younger than Matt Benning. 100%.
  7. R Eric Gryba, 29. Played 40 games as 7D last season, saw action in three playoff games. I think he’ll be in the mix for regular third-pairing activity but may not hold that job. As of now, he is a lock for the roster. 100%.
  8. L Yohann Auvitu, 27. New signing gives the team a much needed addition to the mobile passers on the team. I don’t think he’s a lock for the roster but he has a good chance. 50%.
  9. R Mark Fayne, 30. He can defend but his foot speed is an issue, he does not play a rugged game and the offense is minimal. I don’t think he’ll be on the team other than recall. 20%.
  10. L Ryan Stanton, 27. He appears poised to battle Auvitu for the 7D spot this fall, he has done some penalty killing in the past and that may become a big deal. 14%.
  11. LD Dillon Simpson. Excellent chance he plays some NHL games this year and we’ll see if he ends the season No. 11 on the depth chart. History tells us he’ll pass someone. 5%
  12. LD Keegan LoweTop 4D role in Bakersfield, where does he sit on callup list? I’ll be very interested to see where he ranks on the Oilers depth chart this season. He could be an early recall, Lowe is a good fit for Chiarelli/McLellan teams. 5%
  13. LD Ziyat Paigin. The verbal coming out on him is very strong but he’s probably a year away from pushing for a roster spot. Expect a lot of early talk from Bakersfield to surround mobility, we should get a clear picture on him by March. 4%
  14. RD Ethan Bear. Bear finished off a fabulous junior career in fine style but the workload increases in a big way this fall. I expect a full season in Bakersfield, with a cup of coffee in the NHL possible. We should be looking for effective 5×5 play, and I’m sure they’ll want to see him on the power play. 1%
  15. LD Caleb Jones. Fastest and most mobile of the new pro defensemen, that sometimes means a fast track. We’ve been advancing Jones alongside Bear since they were drafted seven picks apart, looking forward to seeing how each advances at pro level. 1%

GOAL

  1. Cam Talbot, 30. Posted a fantastic season and there’s no reason (injury aside) to doubt his ability to repeat it. I think they will try to reduce his number of starts, but bet he gets at least 65 anyway. 100%.
  2. Laurent Brossoit, 24. You would like to see him get 25 starts but that’s probably a year away. If he can hold on to the backup job, perhaps there is more. One step at a time. 90%.
  3. Nick Ellis, 23. I include him because there’s always a chance someone gets hurt and the Ellis resume is very good. 10%.

THE OUTSIDERS

  1. G Eddie PasqualeAHL veteran could get some NHL time.
  2. G Shane Starrett. Another college goalie turning pro. Strong resume.
  3. G Dylan Wells. Slide rule, he’ll spend one more year in junior.
  4. G Stuart Skinner. He has a solid resume and the Oilers love him.
  5. LD Ben Betker. Big man should get a full AHL season.
  6. RD Ryan Mantha. Big man, big shot, good speed. Duplicates Bear’s skill set.
  7. LD Dmitri Samorukov. Intriguing two-way defender.
  8. C Grayson Downing. Skilled center coming off subpar second AHL season.
  9. RC Josh Currie. Back on an AHL deal, he has skill and two-way ability.
  10. RC Kyle Platzer. We’ll know by Christmas if the Oilers have any plan for him.
  11. L Ryan Hamilton. AHL only deal, he’ll get some time with the big club in camp.
  12. L Braden Christoffer. Final year of entry deal coming up.
  13. L Evan Polei. Size and skill (6.02, 227 and 33 WHL goals) are intriguing.
  14. L Tyler Benson. Slide rule, may get some pre-season games if healthy.
  15. L Ostap Safin. Size, speed and skill. First Oilers camp on the way.
  16. R Zach O’Brien. May end up being an important player for the Condors.
  17. R Patrick RussellScored only 8 times as rookie pro. Needs to fill the net this year.
  18. R Greg Chase. Final year of entry-level deal ahead, has shown only flashes.
  19. R Brian Ferlin. Effective when healthy. Has had substantial injury issues.
  20. R Dave Gust. Small skill winger. AHL deal.
  21. R Chad Butcher. AHL deal, skilled RW played in Medicine Hat 2011-17.
  22. R Kirill MaksimovHigh risk skill winger might be a draft steal.

TOMORROW

There are a couple of Oilers on this list, Evan Campbell representing the BCHL brigade and Zach Nagelvoort from the wayward wind that was the 2014 entry draft. Here are ‘three for the Oilers’ I would like to see added in the coming days:

  • LC Alex Kerfoot, Harvard. Shane Malloy, Hockey Prospect Radio: An intelligent puck possession playmaking center who can play on the wing that has good passing ability whether stationary or at speed. Is a quick darting skater with the agility to dodge and roll off defenders. He defensive game has matured once his defensive habits such as an active stick, head on a swivel, taking correct angles became consistent.  Source
  • LC Dominic Toninato, Minnesota-Duluth. SBNation: He’s a top line center with the ability to play on the power play and penalty kill. He plays with a physical edge that sometimes goes too far. He’s a decent skater, but will likely move from center to wing at the next level, where he should provide strong, gritty two-way play with the occasional offense chipped in as well. Source
  • LD Will Butcher, Denver. Ben Kerr, LWS: Butcher is quick skater. He has excellent speed in both directions. He also has very good acceleration. Butcher has very good vision and the ability to thread the needle on passes both to start the transition game and in setting up plays in the offensive zone. He also has a good shot. While Butcher is a little undersized, and can be overpowered in the defensive zone, he works hard to avoid this making him a defensive liability. Expect Butcher to be NHL ready and push for a spot with whatever team signs him.  Source

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63 Responses to "RIESEN TO BELIEVE (SECOND VERSE)"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I can’t imagine signing any of the soon to be college free agents.

    That would take us to 49 pro contracts with the slides of Yamamoto, Benson and Wells (and assuming the Drai signing).

    If Chiarelli is going to add a contract that limits the in-season ability to improve, I would think it would be for a player that is more likely to make a material impact on the current roster (i.e. Franson, Jagr, etc.).

    Shit, what is he made a college free agent signing (which would be for the future and the prospect school) and then Yamamoto did happen to make the team – boom, 50 contracts.

  2. dessert1111 says:

    The way I see it, the current training camp battle is 9 forwards for 3 forward slots (the final 9 on your list – I have Slepyshev as a lock) and 7 D for 2 slots (I don’t have Gryba as a lock and I have the last 2 on your list as no chance).

    Overall I am pretty happy with end of the roster depth. That many reasonable options for the last guy in the batting order and the extras is good. The issue is not a lot can be reasonably expected to at higher in the order than they’re slotted at this time, but I think that’s a concern for pretty much every team and why we play the games.

  3. Lowetide says:

    OP: The Oilers can get under the 50-man limit by moving one of their youngsters who are ‘bubble’ players. Jujhar Khaira is a possibility and Anton Slepyshev is, too. Chiareli is always aggressive and if that means making room suspect he will do it.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    OP: The Oilers can get under the 50-man limit by moving one of their youngsters who are ‘bubble’ players. Jujhar Khaira is a possibility and Anton Slepyshev is, too. Chiareli is always aggressive and if that means making room suspect he will do it.

    I understand that – the Oilers can move a contract out, of course.

    With that said, none of these soon to be college free agents seem to be material enough prospects to risk having to move out real prospects/almost everyday NHL players like JJ and Slepy.

  5. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: I understand that – the Oilers can move a contract out, of course.

    With that said, none of these soon to be college free agents seem to be material enough prospects to risk having to move out real prospects/almost everyday NHL players like JJ and Slepy.

    If Yamamoto makes the team, it is probably at the expense of Khaira, who is waiver eligible. Lots of scenarios here.

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    L Jujhar Khaira, 23. The Oilers like his size, speed and grit, and I think he’ll break camp with the big club. However, he is going to have to bring some offense and the signing of Jokinen confuses the issue. 69%.

    Nice.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Every time I look at the forward group from a distance, it amazes me how many of the players can play up and down the lineup and at multiple positions. McLellan is sure going to have lineup options this year.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lots of talk about Strome or Slepy taking over the “Letestu spot” on the 1PP.

    What about JP? I’ve heard he’s got a good one-timer and I think I saw it a few times in AHL highlights.

    With that said, I saw him whiff/muff that one-time multiple times in his NHL stint last year – I rack that up to confidence issues.

  9. McNuge93 says:

    Lowetide, is the ‘Riesen’ in your title referring to Michel Rieisen one of our many failed 1st round draft picks from the 90s and 2000s. You’re not implying anything here re this years first rounder are you? I suspect not as you have been pretty positive about Yam.

    Or are you implying those dark days are over?

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: If Yamamoto makes the team, it is probably at the expense of Khaira, who is waiver eligible. Lots of scenarios here.

    Sure, that may be an option but I’d be remiss to lose Khaira because we’ve added a 3rd tier college free agent that has minimal chance to make an NHL appearance this season.

    Of course, in you scenario, Khaira would possibly be lost on waivers (I’d rather subject Pakarinen personally) and wouldn’t be lost as a result of the 50 contracts forcing it.

    I just don’t see any of these potential college free agent signings as a material enough player/prospect to potentially force the GMs hand to move out a more material player/prospect.

    With that said, I was also adamant that Matt Benning had almost no shot at the NHL last year and Caggulia was destined from Bakersfield to start – so, what the heck do I know?

  11. season not played says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    L Jujhar Khaira, 23. The Oilers like his size, speed and grit, and I think he’ll break camp with the big club. However, he is going to have to bring some offense and the signing of Jokinen confuses the issue. 69%.

    Nice.

    My nemesis beat me to it.

    Nice job LT.

  12. Lowetide says:

    McNuge93:
    Lowetide, is the ‘Riesen’ in your title referring to Michel Rieisen one of our many failed 1st round draft picks from the 90s and 2000s. You’re not implying anything here re this years first rounder are you? I suspect not as you have been pretty positive about Yam.

    Or are you implying those dark days are over?

    It is homage to Riesen, yes, and I use it every year so there is no commentary beyond it, nothing implied.

  13. Barcs says:

    Was really hoping that the only comments on this post would be “Nice.” over and over and over again. 😁

    Nice.

  14. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    L Jujhar Khaira, 23. The Oilers like his size, speed and grit, and I think he’ll break camp with the big club. However, he is going to have to bring some offense and the signing of Jokinen confuses the issue. 69%.

    Nice.

    *winky thumbs up emoji face*

  15. Thinker says:

    If connor carries strome to 72 points, then he has to be the defacto best of all time.

  16. NativeNotFrench says:

    Nice

  17. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide: 21. Leon’s contract should be signed in the next three weeks and then we can commence arguing where he should play. My bet remains 70 percent with The One, 30 percent with regular humans. 100%.

    If Drai plays wing, especially McDavid’s wing, next season his contract had better not be a penny above $7M.

    If he centers his own line and it manages to push rivers, then $8M is fine.

  18. godot10 says:

    Gret99zky: If Drai plays wing, especially McDavid’s wing, next season his contract had better not be a penny above $7M.

    If he centers his own line and it manages to push rivers, then $8M is fine.

    The Oilers are buying 8 years. Most of that time is not going to be on wing. Draisaitl is under no obligation to take less because of a coach’s player usage decision.

    $8.5 million per season is fair.

  19. Professor Q says:

    godot10: The Oilers are buying 8 years.Most of that time is not going to be on wing. Draisaitl is under no obligation to take less because of a coach’s player usage decision.

    $8.5 million per season is fair.

    We will forever disagree on this.

    $7-8 million is fair. Anything more is not.

  20. Lowetide says:

    godot10: The Oilers are buying 8 years.Most of that time is not going to be on wing. Draisaitl is under no obligation to take less because of a coach’s player usage decision.

    $8.5 million per season is fair.

    I think he comes in (if it is 8 years) between $7.75 and $8.25M

  21. Bag of Pucks says:

    Some stats from MacLellan’s tenure as SJ HC:

    G SV PCT

    2008-2009
    Reg. .910 (Nabokov)
    Playoffs .890 (Nabokov)

    2009-2010
    Reg. .922 (Nabokov)
    Playoffs .907 (Nabokov)

    2010 – 2011
    Reg. .920 (Niemi)
    Playoffs .896 (Niemi)

    2011 – 2012
    Reg. .915 (Niemi)
    Playoffs .914 (Niemi)

    2012 – 2013
    Reg. .924 (Niemi)
    Playoffs .930 (Niemi)

    2013 – 2014
    Reg. .913 (Niemi)
    Playoffs .884 (Niemi)

    2014 – 2015
    Reg. .914 (Niemi)
    Missed playoffs

    Career PPG

    Joe Thornton
    Reg. .96
    Playoffs .75

    Patrick Marleau
    Reg. .72
    Playoffs .67

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    Professor Q: We will forever disagree on this.

    $7-8 million is fair. Anything more is not.

    What if he finishes Top 10 in scoring in the league again?

  23. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: Clearly McLellan’s fault, he should have had 1971 Ken Dryden graduating from Cornell! 🙂

  24. RexLibris says:

    Re: LT’s Riesen to believe theme
    If you’ll all Bear with me for a moment, I’m finding my interest in prospects Wayne-ing this year. Perhaps that’s due to having won the “big one” in McDavid, or perhaps it is just due to my own failing attention span. In either case, it is with no small sense of relief that I can scan LT’s list of roster hopefuls, many still Greene and unproven, at the beginning of a season and not feel compelled to hope that one or another emerges as a dark horse star in the making.

    Truth be told, it feels as though the Hulbig work has been managed and that, Ales a calamity befalls the franchise, they are set upon the Wright track.

    Now, I don’t want to overshoot the Omark here and Fayne supreme confidence that every action taken is necessarily the Rita one lest we Schremp from holding management accountable – they are, after all, something of a Vesel of Oliver shared aspirations for communal triumph and we all Nurse some hope that glory is close at hand. The Chase for the Cup continues and there are indications that it is at least a reasonable Betker that something wonderful this way comes.

    That said, Marc(-Antoine) my words, there is light upon the horizon as the organization seems to be drawing talent from some deeper Wells and the noise around this team continues to get Louder and the roster grows in Power as the days of Payne move further behind us. Provided these young players Lander on their feet, the expectations are not quite so Bigos as in previous years.

    So, if it Pelss you all, I will shelve some of my more cynical thoughts, if only for a short time, whether they make the Stanley Cup finals this year Arnott.

    Here is the end of my rant, so Allison for your replies or comments.

  25. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide:
    Bag of Pucks: Clearly McLellan’s fault, he should have had 1971 Ken Dryden graduating from Cornell!

    The old adage is you need your tender to raise his game in the playoffs to win Stanley. Clearly that rarely happened during TMac’s time with the Sharkies.

    Fortunately for MacLellan, Talbot did raise his game last season (.919 regular, .924 playoffs) so hopefully that’s a harbinger of things to come!

    Btw, who wins in a head to head series btw 71 Dryden and 81 Moog?

  26. frjohnk says:

    RexLibris:
    Re: LT’s Riesen to believe theme
    If you’ll all Bear with me for a moment, I’m finding my interest in prospects Wayne-ing this year. Perhaps that’s due to having won the “big one” in McDavid, or perhaps it is just due to my own failing attention span. In either case, it is with no small sense of relief that I can scan LT’s list of roster hopefuls, many still Greene and unproven, at the beginning of a season and not feel compelled to hope that one or another emerges as a dark horse star in the making.

    Truth be told, it feels as though the Hulbig work has been managed and that, Ales a calamity befalls the franchise, they are set upon the Wright track.

    Now, I don’t want to overshoot the Omark here and Fayne supreme confidence that every action taken is necessarily the Rita one lest we Schremp from holding management accountable – they are, after all, something of a Vesel of Oliver shared aspirations for communal triumph and we all Nurse some hope that glory is close at hand. The Chase for the Cup continues and there are indications that it is at least a reasonable Betker that something wonderful this way comes.

    That said, Marc(-Antoine) my words, there is light upon the horizon as the organization seems to be drawing talent from some deeper Wells and the noise around this team continues to get Louder and the roster grows in Power as the days of Payne move further behind us. Provided these young players Lander on their feet, the expectations are not quite so Bigos as in previous years.

    So, if it Pelss you all, I will shelve some of my more cynical thoughts, if only for a short time, whether they make the Stanley Cup finals this year Arnott.

    Here is the end of my rant, so Allison for your replies or comments.

    Nicely done.

  27. RexLibris says:

    frjohnk: Nicely done.

    Well, “nice” is the theme of the day.

    Thank you.

  28. dustrock says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Some stats from MacLellan’s tenure as SJ HC:

    G SV PCT

    2008-2009
    Reg. .910 (Nabokov)
    Playoffs .890 (Nabokov)

    2009-2010
    Reg. .922 (Nabokov)
    Playoffs .907 (Nabokov)

    2010 – 2011
    Reg. .920 (Niemi)
    Playoffs .896 (Niemi)

    2011 – 2012
    Reg. .915 (Niemi)
    Playoffs .914 (Niemi)

    2012 – 2013
    Reg. .924 (Niemi)
    Playoffs .930 (Niemi)

    2013 – 2014
    Reg. .913 (Niemi)
    Playoffs .884 (Niemi)

    2014 – 2015
    Reg. .914 (Niemi)
    Missed playoffs

    Career PPG

    Joe Thornton
    Reg. .96
    Playoffs .75

    Patrick Marleau
    Reg. .72
    Playoffs .67

    Nabokov was a letdown for a couple of those series.

    Got outplayed by Roloson, Kiprusoff, Quick, Luongo, etc.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Rex: Awesome!

  30. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide,

    Thank you (took me about 2 hours to pin down every reference!)

    Btw, I checked and he must’ve been a FA signing. No record of an “Awesome” being drafted by the Oil. Unless you went all old school on me and pulled a WHA reference. ;P

  31. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lots of talk about Strome or Slepy taking over the “Letestu spot” on the 1PP.

    What about JP? I’ve heard he’s got a good one-timer and I think I saw it a few times in AHL highlights.

    With that said, I saw him whiff/muff that one-time multiple times in his NHL stint last year – I rack that up to confidence issues.

    Woodguy could probably confirm but the

    ————-Lucic———-
    Letestu—–Draisaitl——-
    ————————McDavid
    ———–Klefbom

    Powerplay was one of the best PP’s in the league. So unless they faceplant out of gate, no reason to break them up.

    Few of the things I found were that the Oilers were near the top of the list with overall shots and goals from the slot on the PP. I believe Lucic shot 25% on the PP.

    Long term, JP is probably in the Letestu spot. But in the short term, give him at bats on 2PP.
    Our 2PP is probably something like

    ————-Maroon———-
    JP—–Strome——-
    ————————RNH
    ———–Benning

    With guys like Drake, Sleppy and Sekera( when he gets back) also finding time there as well.

  32. McNuge93 says:

    RexLibris:
    Re: LT’s Riesen to believe theme
    If you’ll all Bear with me for a moment, I’m finding my interest in prospects Wayne-ing this year. Perhaps that’s due to having won the “big one” in McDavid, or perhaps it is just due to my own failing attention span. In either case, it is with no small sense of relief that I can scan LT’s list of roster hopefuls, many still Greene and unproven, at the beginning of a season and not feel compelled to hope that one or another emerges as a dark horse star in the making.

    Truth be told, it feels as though the Hulbig work has been managed and that, Ales a calamity befalls the franchise, they are set upon the Wright track.

    Now, I don’t want to overshoot the Omark here and Fayne supreme confidence that every action taken is necessarily the Rita one lest we Schremp from holding management accountable – they are, after all, something of a Vesel of Oliver shared aspirations for communal triumph and we all Nurse some hope that glory is close at hand. The Chase for the Cup continues and there are indications that it is at least a reasonable Betker that something wonderful this way comes.

    That said, Marc(-Antoine) my words, there is light upon the horizon as the organization seems to be drawing talent from some deeper Wells and the noise around this team continues to get Louder and the roster grows in Power as the days of Payne move further behind us. Provided these young players Lander on their feet, the expectations are not quite so Bigos as in previous years.

    So, if it Pelss you all, I will shelve some of my more cynical thoughts, if only for a short time, whether they make the Stanley Cup finals this year Arnott.

    Here is the end of my rant, so Allison for your replies or comments.

    That is very Bon, Signor.

  33. frjohnk says:

    Little more on the PP.

    For the players that played 150 or more minutes last year on the PP ( 195 players)

    -there were 14 players who scored over 3 goals per 60 and the Oilers had 2.
    Lucic at 3.28
    Letestu at 3.08

    – there were 29 who scored over 2.5 goals per 60
    Draisaitl had 2.61

    -there were 49 who scored over 2 goals per 60
    Nuge had 2 goals per 60

    Oilers were well represented on this list.

    That McDavid fellow only scored 0.75 goals per 60. He better pull up his socks this year on the PP.

    ————————————————————————————————————————————–
    Overall when I was looking at some of the PP stats in the league from last year, the successful PP’s had many shots coming from the slot and/or had a couple of shooters that didn’t need to be in the slot ( ie Ovechkin) Surprisingly, Dallas had many shot attempts from the slot and they have shooters but their numbers were not near the top. I expect them to reverse that especially with Hanzel on the team now. He is good in front of the net.

    Here are the top 12 guys who lead the league in shot attempts from the slot per 60 and their goals/60 on the PP

    Goals/60 Player shot attempts from the slot/60
    3.05 Wayne Simmonds 15.06
    2.11 Ryan Kesler 14.78
    2.61 Patric Hornqvist 13.36
    2.85 Anders Lee 13.32
    2.16 Adam Lowry 12.95
    2.93 Nino Niederreiter 12.8
    1.3 Corey Perry 12.69
    1.65 Martin Hanzal 12.38
    3.14 Nick Foligno 12.28
    2.4 Sam Reinhart 12.01
    3.55 Brayden Schenn 11.7
    3.28 Milan Lucic 11.47*****************************

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: Woodguy could probably confirm but the

    ————-Lucic———-
    Letestu—–Draisaitl——-
    ————————McDavid
    ———–Klefbom

    Powerplay was one of the best PP’s in the league.So unless they faceplant out of gate, no reason to break them up.

    Few of the things I found were that the Oilers were near the top of the list with overall shots and goals from the slot on the PP.I believe Lucic shot 25% on the PP.

    Long term, JP is probably in the Letestu spot.But in the short term, give him at bats on 2PP.
    Our 2PP is probably something like

    ————-Maroon———-
    JP—–Strome——-
    ————————RNH
    ———–Benning

    With guys like Drake, Sleppy and Sekera( when he gets back) also finding time there as well.

    I don’t disagree with you.

    To play Devils’ advocate with respect to PP1, I think they might want to look for a way to decrease Letestu’s overall minutes. The eye-test and the verbal (from Mark himself) is that he is better with fewer minutes and, frankly, we need him to be a bit better at even strength.

    Not to mention its a contract year for Mark and we can’t afford for him to demand > $2M next year if we are looking to bring him back – with that said, I’m remiss to make in-game decisions based on contract situations – coach to win.

    Letestu did a wonderful job – can he repeat? I”m not so sure he’d have as much success but he is clearly able to find the lane and get a decent shot way. Can JP, Slep, Strome be as successful? I don’t know the answer to that.

    What would the loss of his faceoff ability on PP1 mean? I expect both Leon and McDavid to importer in that area this year but neither shoot right.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brian Lawton sends twitter ablaze with a tweet about the Bruins potentially trading Pasternk.

    No, I would not trade the natural centers (Draisaitl) for the winger – I don’t think the winger, even though he shoots right, is more dynamic offensively than the natural center, at least not enough to make up for the loss of the center.

  36. Georges says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Some stats from MacLellan’s tenure as SJ HC:

    G SV PCT

    2008-2009
    Reg. .910 (Nabokov)
    Playoffs .890 (Nabokov)

    2009-2010
    Reg. .922 (Nabokov)
    Playoffs .907 (Nabokov)

    2010 – 2011
    Reg. .920 (Niemi)
    Playoffs .896 (Niemi)

    2011 – 2012
    Reg. .915 (Niemi)
    Playoffs .914 (Niemi)

    2012 – 2013
    Reg. .924 (Niemi)
    Playoffs .930 (Niemi)

    2013 – 2014
    Reg. .913 (Niemi)
    Playoffs .884 (Niemi)

    2014 – 2015
    Reg. .914 (Niemi)
    Missed playoffs

    Career PPG

    Joe Thornton
    Reg. .96
    Playoffs .75

    Patrick Marleau
    Reg. .72
    Playoffs .67

    I guess you can blame it on the players because we have ways of measuring player performance.

    Nabokov wasn’t clutch. Niemi wasn’t clutch. Thornton wasn’t clutch. Marleau wasn’t clutch. The Sharks weren’t clutch. From all of that, is the correct conclusion the coach is clutch?

    The performance of the team reflects on the coach. We have no way of assessing the performance of a coach except by the performance of his team. Making inferences on the performance of a coach from the performance of his team isn’t unfair. It’s all we’ve got. And TMac was a constant in all those unsuccessful SJS seasons, even while other parts were changing.

    We’ve never had to make excuses for TMac’s playoff record, thank God. Let’s hope we won’t have to in the years to come. Because to continue with your TMac playoffs exoneration exercise, we would have to add:

    Career PPG:

    CMD

    Reg. 1.17
    Playoffs .69

    (And goalies don’t own sv%; it’s also a function of team play, isn’t it?)

  37. Thinker says:

    I don’t think we are good enough to sabotage players for contract purposes, and make the playoffs. I think we are a little too confident for a team who plays in the west. A lot of things broke right this year, and chances are there is some pullback. I’m not sure things like playing maroon away from connor may be unreasonable for a team that wants to make the playoffs.

  38. godot10 says:

    Niemi won a Cup with the Blackhawks. The Sharks offer sheeted him (as part of a double offer sheet) to get him. They offer sheeted Hjallmarson first, then Niemi.

    So McLellan (and Wilson) own that decision.

    (Sort of like Chiarelli and McLellan now own the Russell one.)

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    Georges,

    There’s a big gap btw ‘clutch’ and playing poorly. .890 .896 .884

    That is poor performance by the goaltenders particularly in contrast to their regular season performance.

    And why would sv. pct. be a team stat? It’s an output of G efficiency. Even if they go to a team that gives up more shots against, a superior G will typically maintain a superior sv. pct.

    Outside one decent playoff from Niemi, San Jose never got outstanding playoff goaltending.

    And the subpar performance of their top players in the playoffs has been widely documented.

    It’s on the HC if the system or in game adjustments are failing them. It’s on the players when they squeeze the sticks too tight.

    And absolutely, Connor’s playoff performance is a great example to bring up. I think everyone realizes that last year’s playoff was a learning experience for McDavid and thus, nobody is blaming MacLellan for the downturn in McDavid’s ppg from regular season to playoffs. Yet, this is exactly what we reach to do to explain the poor playoff performance of Thornton, Marleau, Nabokov, etc. Must be the coaches fault?

    What’s more plausible? That a very successful regular season coach suddenly forgets how to prepare his team to win OR the team simply lacks the talent and fortitude to win when the intensity and physicality of the playoffs ramp up OR the team’s goaltending sucked?

  40. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10:
    Niemi won a Cup with the Blackhawks.The Sharks offer sheeted him (as part of a double offer sheet) to get him.They offer sheeted Hjallmarson first, then Niemi.

    So McLellan (and Wilson) own that decision.

    (Sort of like Chiarelli and McLellan now own the Russell one.)

    I don’t see MacLellan being responsible for player acquisition. If you’re going to paint him with that brush though, I’m afraid you’re going to have to give him credit for Talbot too, as opposed to just cherry picking the Russell example.

    Btw, you’re kind of making my point for me with Niemi winning a Cup in Chi-Town. Better team with better elite players AND depth equals better result for all involved. HC and G alike.

  41. Chachi says:

    godot10: The Sharks offer sheeted him (as part of a double offer sheet) to get him. They offer sheeted Hjallmarson first, then Niemi.

    You sure about that?

  42. RexLibris says:

    McNuge93: That is very Bon, Signor.

    Oh, slow clap indeed! Nicely played. I’d be Ryan if I said I wasn’t frustrated at missing Bonsignore.

  43. godot10 says:

    Chachi: You sure about that?

    Okay, i was wrong about that in the details (but not in the spirit)….Chicago couldn’t afford to sign Niemi after the offer sheet to Hjallmarsson was matched and had to walk away from the arbitration decision, which made NIemi a free agent, who then signed with San Jose. A double offer sheet in spirit if not in actual fact.

    But from McLellan’s and San Jose’s perspective what really happened is even worse…they signed him to a long term four year contract after a one year trial. So McLellan had him for one year and clearly decided (like Russell) that Niemi was his guy.

  44. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Could you turn RNH into an asset and package it with Puljujarvi for Pastrnak? Would you?

  45. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    godot10,

    What are basing your conclusion on, comparables wise?

    Staples has done some nice work tabulating comparable players on their second and third contracts, while breaking down how many RFA / UFA years fall into the big contract.

    Bottom line, he shows recent history puts Draisitl’s contract in the range of $7.2MM as fair, and $8MM as generous. Since Drai is signing his second contract the main leverage he has is how many UFA years he agrees to sign for up front.

  46. Chachi says:

    godot10: Okay, i was wrong about that in the details (but not in the spirit)….Chicago couldn’t afford to sign Niemi after the offer sheet to Hjallmarsson was matched and had to walk away from the arbitration decision, which made NIemi a free agent, who then signed with San Jose. A double offer sheet in spirit if not in actual fact.

    But from McLellan’s and San Jose’s perspective what really happened is even worse…they signed him to a long term four year contract after a one year trial.SoMcLellan had him for one year and clearly decided (like Russell) that Niemi was his guy.

    #mediocrepostingisadifferentkindofhell
    #Evendanbylsmaknowsniemiwasn’toffersheeted
    #MartySchottenheimerfartsinyourgeneraldirection

  47. Bag of Pucks says:

    It was also interesting to note all the pundits falling all over themselves when the Sharks went to the Finals under DeBoer claiming that this was some sort of definitive proof that MacLellan couldn’t coach.

    Nevermind the fact that Wilson finally gifted his HC (DeBoer) a legitimate money goalie that season and Martin Jones was absolutely lights out that playoff (.918 regular season, .923 playoffs).

    Nope, had to be the new HC. Couldn’t possibly be the hot new G.

    If I’m TMac, I’m still a tad pissed at that.

  48. godot10 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    godot10,

    What are basing your conclusion on, comparables wise?

    Staples has done some nice work tabulating comparable players on their second and third contracts, while breaking down how many RFA / UFA years fall into the big contract.

    Bottom line, he shows recent history puts Draisitl’s contract in the range of $7.2MM as fair, and $8MM as generous. Since Drai is signing his second contract the main leverage he has is how many UFA years he agrees to sign for up front.

    I did a whole bunch of comparables a month or so on Lowetide and came up with $8.5 million as fair, based on what comparable centres received over 8 season past their entry level. $8.5 million is comparable to what Getzlaf and Kopitar received in 2017 dollars relative to the 2017 cap.

  49. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10,

    Do we think Drai is Kopi/Getzlaf?

  50. Georges says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Georges,

    There’s a big gap btw ‘clutch’ and playing poorly. .890 .896 .884

    That is poor performance by the goaltenders particularly in contrast to their regular season performance.

    And why would sv. pct. be a team stat? It’s an output of G efficiency. Even if they go to a team that gives up more shots against, a superior G will typically maintain a superior sv. pct.

    sv% is uncorrelated with shots against. Superior goalies playing behind teams with poor coverage issues, as an example, will not output superior percentages. OK goalies playing behind teams with excellent coverage will. It’s hard to allocate sv% appropriately to goalies and to teams, but goalies definitely don’t get all the credit.

    Outside one decent playoff from Niemi, San Jose never got outstanding playoff goaltending.

    Here are some playoff save percentages of goalies who made the Finals (or won) since 2008-09:

    Season, Goalie, sv%

    13-14, Quick, .911
    10-11, Luongo, .914
    08-09, Fleury .908
    11-12, Brodeur, .917
    09-10, Niemi, .910

    And the subpar performance of their top players in the playoffs has been widely documented.

    It’s on the HC if the system or in game adjustments are failing them. It’s on the players when they squeeze the sticks too tight.

    And absolutely, Connor’s playoff performance is a great example to bring up. I think everyone realizes that last year’s playoff was a learning experience for McDavid and thus, nobody is blaming MacLellan for the downturn in McDavid’s ppg from regular season to playoffs. Yet, this is exactly what we reach to do to explain the poor playoff performance of Thornton, Marleau, Nabokov, etc.Must be the coaches fault?

    I mocked Thornton when we were playing the Sharks.

    But he’s an all-time top-30 scorer. With luck, he’ll finish his career as a top-20 scorer.

    The gap between his regular season scoring and his playoff scoring is eye-raising.

    Must be all his fault, right? Unable to handle the unique demands of the playoffs.

    TMac was quoted after the SJS series that he didn’t care about the CMD-Vlasic matchup as long as he got the RNH-Thornton matchup. CMD was held in check but they won the series. TMac didn’t seem to care about the CMD-Kesler matchup either. Getzlaf destroyed his matchup. CMD still didn’t score and we eventually lost the series.

    Joe Thornton is one of the greatest scorers to play the game. If he stops scoring in the playoffs, is it possible the coach doesn’t know how to make the most of a very valuable weapon when the intensity level changes? Is it possible for us to question the coach’s deployment and matchup decisions? Is he doing anything to help his player perform or does he think his player needs to just man up and perform?

    What’s more plausible? That a very successful regular season coach suddenly forgets how to prepare his team to win OR the team simply lacks the talent and fortitude to win when the intensity and physicality of the playoffs ramp up OR the team’s goaltending sucked?

    You’re willing to give the credit for regular season success to the coach but you don’t want to pin him with any of the playoff failure. Hard to relate.

    Lots of randomness in hockey. But, with stats, the underlying assumption is that where there’s smoke, there might be fire. And where there’s a lot of smoke and it lasts for many years, there’s probably fire.

    When given Todd Nelson’s team with a half season of CMD, TMac made no progress.

    When given one of the best teams on paper heading into the playoffs in the WC, TMac got to the second round.

    I don’t share godot’s view that TMac can’t change… but don’t lose to Randy Carlyle when you have CMD and your goalie posts a .923… don’t lose 4 out of 5 with 3 games on your own ice…

    Just how perfectly does the table have to be set anyway?

  51. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Could you turn RNH into an asset and package it with Puljujarvi for Pastrnak? Would you?

    I think you have to try if Pastrnak is available.

  52. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: I think you have to try if Pastrnak is available.

    McDavid, Draisaitl, Pastrnak is some kind of forward group to build around. Could right the Hall trade (sort of).

  53. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: I think you have to try if Pastrnak is available.

    Isnt RNH the guy we need to trade for picks/prospects/lower salary player to get out of cap hell next year?
    If he is replaced by a guy that is getting similar money, who are the guys not here next year? Maroon and Strome? Ask Lucic or Sekera to waive their NMC’s?

  54. godot10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    godot10,

    Do we think Drai is Kopi/Getzlaf?

    Were Kopi and Getzlaf Kopi/Getzlaf at the same point in their careers?

    There are a whole lot of comparable centres who got just over 11% (+- 0.5%) of the cap over the eight years following their ELC in this century.

  55. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk: Isnt RNH the guy we need to trade for picks/prospects/lower salary player to get out of cap hell next year?
    If he is replaced by a guy that is getting similar money, who are the guys not here next year?Maroon and Strome?Ask Lucic or Sekera to waive their NMC’s?

    I think you find a way. Pastrnak is already a 30-goal man and he’s still a kid. Move heaven and earth to get it done and then figure it out.

  56. Professor Q says:

    godot10: I did a whole bunch of comparables a month or so on Lowetide and came up with $8.5 million as fair, based on what comparable centres received over 8 season past their entry level.$8.5 million is comparable to what Getzlaf and Kopitar received in 2017 dollars relative to the 2017 cap.

    Except his comparables, right now, which is what matters, are getting $6.5 million to $8 million, and are giving up more UFA years than Draisaitl is, and on their third contracts mostly, not second. I personally think you need to reassess your criteria and factors.

  57. godot10 says:

    Professor Q: Except his comparables, right now, which is what matters, are getting $6.5 million to $8 million, and are giving up more UFA years than Draisaitl is, and on their third contracts mostly, not second. I personally think you need to reassess your criteria and factors.

    No, his comparables at centre for the last decade got a little over 11% (plus/minus 0.5%) of the cap over eight seasons past their entry level, which works out to $8.5 million dollars. That includes recent contracts too.

  58. godot10 says:

    Professor Q:
    godot10,

    This is simply not factual, as other posters have already pointed out to you.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/a-fair-contract-for-leon-draisaitl-eight-years-at-7-0-million

    I don;t agree with Staples’ analysis or comparables. I showed my work a month ago on Lowetide.

    $8.5 million over 8 years or just over 11% of the cap is typically what is paid to comparable centres over the eight seasons following expiry of the ELC.

  59. Professor Q says:

    godot10,

    Then we will forever agree to disagree if all else stands, godot. I disagree with your comparables, you disagree with ours.

    I’ll take what the current market is giving, like with the Johansen contract (or the Tarasenko and Kuznetsov contracts, as Leon is primarily used as a RW), not what the market was when Kopitar got his contract.

  60. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Kopitar also happened to have two Cup rings when he signed that monster contract extension.

    His performance last year doesn’t make that signing look like an astute investment, at leaat not yet

  61. Lowetide says:

    godot10: I don;t agree with Staples’ analysis or comparables.I showed my work a month ago on Lowetide.

    $8.5 million over 8 years or just over 11% of the cap is typically what is paid to comparable centres over the eight seasons following expiry of the ELC.

    I don’t think that’s going to be far from the number, Godot. I’d guess $8.25M times eight.

  62. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    I’d wager paying more than $8/yr is hedging increased performance against inflation, so he isn’t on an insane value contract as it ends, a la Crosby’s current deal.

    I’d be happy with that, so long as he doesn’t plateau this season or the next.

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