DOING THE SPLITS

Back when I spent too much time on baseball (this was before and after I spent too much time on hockey) there would be a mountain of time spend on ‘splits’ for each player. You know, a young position player can sometimes improve his strikeout/walk ratio and see a spike in power in the last 40 games of a season. Pitchers can settle in too, and if you’re in a roto or fantasy league you can steal players. Watch for a pitcher who maybe got some spot starts and is 23 or 24. In the league of misfits I was in, finesse pitchers had low value, so maybe try to avoid the famous arms. If there is a pitcher no one notices getting 3/1 k/w ratio, grab that guy. There’s a mlb pitcher named Asher Wojciechowski who is 28 and has a k/w of 51/9. His father may or may not have worked with Barney Miller, and he might be too old to have a career, but that’s a strikeout to walk ratio worth paying attention to in the next year or two.

Splits in hockey don’t give us the same kind of results, mostly (in my opinion) because of variations in usage. In baseball, you get your at-bats, but in hockey playing time can be used in very different and undemocratic ways. Here are some hockey splits, let’s see what we can see.

OILERS, MARCH 1 TO END OF REGULAR SEASON

  • Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl closed extremely well, that run to the end of the season was a lot of fun. The Oilers finished with more points (103) than McDavid (100) but my money is on 97 this season.
  • Drake Caggiula scored well, he was healthy by then and getting some looks higher  up the depth chart.
  • The Nuge line found the range down the stretch, all three veterans needed to post some crooked numbers to finish off the boxcars. I wonder if the Oilers give RNH an early season push to get the ball rolling offensively. Maybe he’s like that Volkswagen Type 2 in Little Miss Sunshine and needs a little push to get going.
  • Klefbom and Larsson played well, the goalies did too, and Nurse boosted his boxcars a little before running out of time.
  • Both Jason Gregor and Bob Stauffer have mentioned Caggiula as a possible surprise scorer among the young wingers on the team. My RE has both Jesse Puljujarvi and Anton Slepyshev playing and scoring more, but that’s an interesting take.

BAKERSFIELD MARCH 1 THROUGH SEASON’S END

  • If you could choose only one player to recall based on numbers, who would it be?
  • Jesse Puljujarvi performed pretty well down the stretch, I think he gets a major push this fall. If he still struggles, what then? He has too much talent in my opinion, might be best on a soft parade line with Jussi Jokinen and Ryan Strome.
  • Joey Laleggia, Greg Chase and Joe Gambardella are interesting names on this list. It would be interesting to see what each can do with a pre-season push.
  • Massive turnover on LHD after the season, I will be watching Ben Betker and where he slots into the lineup. Big man has had a quiet entry-level deal, typical for defensive defensemen. Has he improved? His usage this winter will tell us a lot.

WILL BUTCHER

The deadline for college players to sign with their drafting teams has come and gone, meaning there are a stack of free agents on the loose for NHL teams. Edmonton’s 50-man list is very tight, suggesting the odds of signing one of the available kids is not high. Butcher is in the hockey news currently, from a Mike Chambers article in The Denver Post to every blog going figuring out where Butcher is heading. I wrote about the free agents here for ON, and wanted to drill down a little more on Butcher.

His NHLE (82gp, 5-24-29) is pretty strong and he is a mobile defender known for passing ability. Ryan Lambert wrote about him here and if the Oilers signed him my guess would be Butcher would be a feature player in Bakersfield to begin his pro career.

CURRENT 50-MAN ROSTER

  • The Oilers do have room (two spots) and one imagines Peter Chiarelli will leave at least one spot open for Kailer Yamamoto (in case he doesn’t slide) and or a training camp invite with a good chance to make the club.
  • I think they’re done save for the Leon Draisaitl signing. If you bring in a Jagr or Iginla or a Doan, then you are pushing back Jesse Puljujarvi and Anton Slepyshev for another year.
  • That could happen anyway, because Yamamoto is going to impress and the Oilers are unlikely to send him down early. My most recent ‘Riesen to Believe’ has Yamamoto at 25 percent to make the club, Puljujarvi at 90 percent. Edmonton might be wise to send their first-round pick back to junior earlier than late, before a full on contest for a skill spot begins to rage.

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54 Responses to "DOING THE SPLITS"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think its also worth mentioning that, after Dougie Weight took over, Strome’s offensive numbers spiked.

    I’ve read (but cannot confirm) that this was also linked to a move back to center for Ryan.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    If Butcher is signed (not that I see it happening), which d-man does that push to Wichita?

    I think Mantha and Betker are already destined for Wichita but, assuming health (other than Reggie), I think this would push another d-man to the ECHL – unless Simpson or Fayne or Auvitu are claimed on waivers.

  3. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    If Butcher is signed (not that I see it happening), which d-man does that push to Wichita?

    I think Mantha and Betker are already destined for Wichita but, assuming health (other than Reggie), I think this would push another d-man to the ECHL – unless Simpson or Fayne or Auvitu are claimed on waivers.

    AHL teams have no roster limits, they can keep nine or ten defensemen around and often do have extra players. I think we may also see 8D on the NHL team to start the season, with the PK being a prime concern.

  4. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think its also worth mentioning that, after Dougie Weight took over, Strome’s offensive numbers spiked.

    I’ve read (but cannot confirm) that this was also linked to a move back to center for Ryan.

    Yeah I saw that in my research on Strome as well.

    Here’s the deal, although away from the Island, a year older and with better players we can expect some differences and improvement:

    At RW: He was “Eakins-ized” under Capuano, in a “play there till you get it right” situation playing with players that didn’t really fit with his style of play and expected to play a cycle game on the wall, where he fared poorly, similar to complaints we have had with RNH and Eberle. And he was scratched at times which didn’t give him consistent playing time to adapt.

    At C: Under Weight at center, he woke up and got back to playing his offensive game which involves keeping the puck under pressure away from the wall in the offensive zone and playing off opposition to set up plays or get good shots on net. But he was poor tracking back on defense, though not as poor as Eberle, but that skill is much more vital at center.

    So if we play him as RW on McDavid’s line as a trailer, he won’t have to play on the wall as much, and get the puck in areas to make things happen, though probably not as good a finisher as Leon. And we can expect some improvement defensively from McDavid as the first forward back.

    If we play him at C on the second line, he should be able to create with two cycling wingers, but he needs defensive support by another forward, something we’ve had issues with Lucic.

    If we play him at C/RW on the third line, his defense becomes a weak point in the group, and he’ll be playing with similar player types that caused him offensive system issues on the Island.

  5. BONE207 says:

    I see a pattern on this blog recently & perhaps a name change is required. The Lowetide Pouzar Fireside Chat.

    I, like probably many who come here, are waiting patiently for either the Draisatl signing or training camp. Until then, summer takes precedent. Original Pouzar must have his alarm clock set twice a day. Keep up the great work.

  6. pocession charge says:

    BONE207:
    I see a pattern on this blog recently & perhaps a name change is required.The Lowetide Pouzar Fireside Chat.

    I, like probably many who come here, are waiting patiently for either the Draisatl signing or training camp. Until then, summer takes precedent. Original Pouzar must have his alarm clock set twice a day. Keep up the great work.

    Often posts the exact same comments at OilersNation, too. His clients must be very understanding.

    LT, there is a gaming pop up ad that keeps coming up on your site. Every day for the past month or so. And it happens on the phone, home Mac, work PC. Is there any way to get rid of the pop up or is it part of your advertising network?

  7. Cahoon says:

    pocession charge,

    I get it on my phone, but on my computer I have Adblock Plus and I don’t get it here.

  8. Ribs says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think its also worth mentioning that, after Dougie Weight took over, Strome’s offensive numbers spiked.

    I’ve read (but cannot confirm) that this was also linked to a move back to center for Ryan.

    Ah, the ol’ Pump & Dump! Super!

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: AHL teams have no roster limits, they can keep nine or ten defensemen around and often do have extra players. I think we may also see 8D on the NHL team to start the season, with the PK being a prime concern.

    Good point on the no roster limit in the AHL and I agree they may keep 8 d-men (I think Pak will clear waivers).

    With that said, even if we keep 8 in the NHL, there are 9 minor league d-men that we want to play (not including Lagesson who will be in Sweden). Mantha will be in Wichita I would think which already leaves two in the AHL not playing. Butcher would make it three.

    I doubt they sit the “veterans” such as Lowe which could mean that Jones/Bear are fighting to get in the lineup which is not ideal at all.

  10. PunjabiOil says:

    Draisaitl contract news coming soon as per SpeedyTurtle.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    BONE207:
    I see a pattern on this blog recently & perhaps a name change is required.The Lowetide Pouzar Fireside Chat.

    I, like probably many who come here, are waiting patiently for either the Draisatl signing or training camp. Until then, summer takes precedent. Original Pouzar must have his alarm clock set twice a day. Keep up the great work.

    I fully admit my obsession to all things Oilers – only 50 days until the regular season (3 weeks until rookie camp).

    On that note, my main “hockey talk” for the last number of years has been an online sports forum. It used to be the SN Community Boards but those shut down a few years ago. Anyways, there was a great community of posters on that site that got to know each other very well over the course of the decade and, when SN shut down, a few long-term members took it upon themselves to start a new forum.

    Its a fairly small (maybe 200 fully active posters) but it covers all sports and teams (as well as an off topic forum) – its very much hockey focused.

    The moderation group is very good as well.

    Am I at liberty to post the name/link?

  12. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Good point on the no roster limit in the AHL and I agree they may keep 8 d-men (I think Pak will clear waivers).

    With that said, even if we keep 8 in the NHL, there are 9 minor league d-men that we want to play (not including Lagesson who will be in Sweden).Mantha will be in Wichita I would think which already leaves two in the AHL not playing. Butcher would make it three.

    I doubt they sit the “veterans” such as Lowe which could mean that Jones/Bear are fighting to get in the lineup which is not ideal at all.

    Hmmm. I don’t think our math agrees with each other.

    NHL

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Russell-Benning
    Nurse-Gryba
    Auvitu-Fayne
    (Sekera IR)

    AHL

    Stanton-Simpson
    Lowe-Bear
    Jones-Betker
    Paigin-Butcher
    Mantha

    Condors could run with that imo, it would mean no AHL-only deals and of course there are injuries along the way. I don’t think Butcher will sign with Edmonton, but the team has room,both 50-man and in terms of roster space. Also allows them to do that maddening slow play we’ve seen over the years, although it seems to be less of a drag for defenders.

  13. Lowetide says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Draisaitl contract news coming soon as per SpeedyTurtle.

    I am on the way to the Crown Royal store, this is shaping up as a very good day!

  14. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Am I at liberty to post the name/link?

    Always.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Paigin-B

    Our math lines up I think – end of the day, there are three extras looking for ice time.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Always.

    roughingafterthewhistle.com

    Its a pretty darn good community and very well moderated.

    Yup, there are arguments and “fighting” among rival teams but, for the most part, is a nice community to talk sports in (as well as non-sports topics). A wealth of information.

    Always looking to grow the membership.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    pocession charge: Often posts the exact same comments at OilersNation, too.His clients must be very understanding.

    LT, there is a gaming pop up ad that keeps coming up on your site.Every day for the past month or so.And it happens on the phone, home Mac, work PC.Is there any way to get rid of the pop up or is it part of your advertising network?

    Well, my alarm goes off at 4:20 am to get ready for the gym when it opens at 5am.

    I’m always in my office at both 8 and 5 and, frankly, I spend enough time at the office doing my job that I have no problems with the amount of internetting I do here.

  18. leadfarmer says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Draisaitl contract news coming soon as per SpeedyTurtle.

    No whammies no whammies no whammies!!!

    Hope its a reasonable contract. We really cant afford to overpay him. We only have two years left on Talbots deal and I’m sure hes going to want to get paid and given our goalie drafting history of the last 3 decades I dont think a cheap internal replacement is coming

  19. Jethro Tull says:

    As Mike Liut sticks the boots to the Oilers, Daryl Katz appoints new contract negotiators:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYdIXRTBXLo

    I’m expecting Drai’s contract to be somewhere in the region of DM20,000,000 per year for 8 beers.

  20. Lowetide says:

    I’ll guess eight years, $8.25 million AAV.

  21. dustrock says:

    Still think $8m x 8.

    Would prefer less, obviously.

  22. Jordan says:

    7.X for 8 years.

  23. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ll guess eight years, $8.25 million AAV.

    I would guess you are right but I would hope its less

  24. PunjabiOil says:

    Will stick to the 8 X 8M figure as was shared a few weeks ago.

    If anything I would expect the number to have fallen to the 7.5M-8M range.

  25. Jethro Tull says:

    7 times $7.5M

  26. Gret99zky says:

    $7.75M X 8 years

  27. Pink Socks says:

    8×7.5 for me

  28. LoDog says:

    Gret99zky:
    $7.75M X 8 years

    Thats the number I have had all along. Called McDavids number so this is probably right. 😉

  29. flyfish1168 says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Draisaitl contract news coming soon as per SpeedyTurtle.

    My guess is he will be a very rich man probably between 60 – 68 million over 8 years.

  30. vinotintazo says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Draisaitl contract news coming soon as per SpeedyTurtle.

    Great news! hoping something around 7.5M

  31. Georges says:

    WG said this in last night’s thread:

    Also, in a sample as small as 1 season GF% and +/- tend to be noisy, which means they are not always very repeatable for the next year.

    Goals are important and I include them, but they are they least repeatable metric that most people use for evaluation.

    Goals are important for telling us “what happened”, but are less good at telling us “what will happen next”

    I pulled 5v5 team stats from hockeyanalysis before it went offline. Let’s compare how well 5v5 CF% and GF% in one season predict next season’s 5v5 GF%. Here are the season to season correlations (the “what will happen next” part):

    Correlation with next season’s GF%:

    Season, CF% correlation, GF% correlation

    07-08, .27, .35
    08-09, .34, .24
    09-10, .57, .52
    10-11, .59, .60
    11-12, .34, .36
    12-13, .48, .54
    13-14, .43, .47
    14-15, .55, .65
    15-16, .42, .35

    Here are my takeaways:

    1. Goals tell us as much about what will happen next as corsi.

    2. They both don’t tell us an awful lot.

    WG also said:

    … but as we know goals are the most volatile results and they will converge with shots/DFF over time.

    Which is mysterious unless he means everything regresses to the mean. But I don’t think he does.

  32. frjohnk says:

    Georges:
    WG said this in last night’s thread:

    I pulled 5v5 team stats from hockeyanalysis before it went offline. Let’s compare how well 5v5 CF% and GF% in one season predict next season’s 5v5 GF%. Here are the season to season correlations (the “what will happen next” part):

    Correlation with next season’s GF%:

    Season, CF% correlation, GF% correlation

    07-08, .27, .35
    08-09, .34, .24
    09-10, .57, .52
    10-11, .59, .60
    11-12, .34, .36
    12-13, .48, .54
    13-14, .43, .47
    14-15, .55, .65
    15-16, .42, .35

    Here are my takeaways:

    1. Goals tell us as much about what will happen next as corsi.

    2. They both don’t tell us an awful lot.

    WG also said:

    Which is mysterious unless he means everything regresses to the mean. But I don’t think he does.

    I think he was talking about players not teams.
    Some teams change as many as 10 players year over year, so there would be more variance in those numbers.

  33. jtblack says:

    Speedy Turtle nailed the Strome report.

  34. Georges says:

    frjohnk: I think he was talking about players not teams.
    Some teams change as many as 10 players year over year, so there would be more variance in those numbers.

    So do you think a player’s CF% in this season will be a good predictor of his GF% next season? Or just his CF% next season? And what’s the threshold for “good” predictor? Curious to know whether you believe CF% travels with a player when they switch teams as well.

  35. BONE207 says:

    OriginalPouzar: roughingafterthewhistle.com

    Its a pretty darn good community and very well moderated.

    Yup, there are arguments and “fighting” among rival teams but, for the most part, is a nice community to talk sports in (as well as non-sports topics). A wealth of information.

    Always looking to grow the membership.

    OP…when this place is rockin’, there aren’t enough hours in a day to find other distractions but I’ll look in on this from time to time. Thanks

  36. N64 says:

    8 x 8.5 done

  37. russ99 says:

    8 x 8.5 AAV, probably a lower front end and a higher back end.

    Glad it’s done, we’ll deal with next summer then.

  38. John Chambers says:

    8 years $68M!

    Ouchie

  39. PunjabiOil says:

    That is not a good number. Oilers bear alot of the risk, even if there is strong possibility he lives up to it.

    Perhaps an RFA offersheet was on the table that raised the price.

  40. Professor Q says:

    I still think $8 million should have been the limit but I guess it’s done now and we can breathe.

    And look to the future.

    …can we still talk about signing Jagr? 😛

  41. John Chambers says:

    Professor Q,

    We do get to watch the McDavid and Draisaitl show for another 8 years. It’s a good show and I plan to tune in.

  42. striatic says:

    John Chambers:
    8 years $68M!

    Ouchie

    Based on the limited sample size and lack of sustained, proven elite production away from 97 it is contract you can wince at.

    But if he’s Kopitar 2.0, or anything even approaching that, it’s incredible value.

    It’s up to Leon.

  43. McNuge93 says:

    Was hoping for $7.75 but at least this is now done. Looking forward to the season.

  44. Aron_S says:

    Well I’ll make sure to enjoy this last season of Nuge and really hope that Drai can score 80+ points to earn that behemoth contract. Oilers, I can’t quit you…

  45. Jethro Tull says:

    For the player he is at the moment…….too much.

    For the player we all pray he becomes…….smoking deal!

  46. Bismarck says:

    In the words of Capt. John Miller from Saving Private Ryan (to Priv. Ryan): “Earn this.”

  47. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Nailed it

  48. Professor Q says:

    John Chambers:
    Professor Q,

    We do get to watch the McDavid and Draisaitl show for another 8 years. It’s a good show and I plan to tune in.

    Oh, I just meant for next season or maybe for two seasons.

    Jagr on the team would be a dream.

  49. leadfarmer says:

    Damn, in a flat cap world that is going to sting for the next 4 years

  50. godot10 says:

    Fair value, right on the nose based on the midpoint of comparable centres’ compensation for eight years after their ELC over the last decade.

    #CalledIt

  51. godot10 says:

    Aron_S:
    Well I’ll make sure to enjoy this last season of Nuge and really hope that Drai can score 80+ points to earn that behemoth contract. Oilers, I can’t quit you…

    Probably the last season of Maroon and Strome, not of Nugent-Hopkins.

  52. Jethro Tull says:

    godot10:
    Fair value, right on the nose based on the midpoint of comparable centres’ compensation for eight years after their ELC over the last decade.

    #CalledIt

    Same money and term gets you Stamkos…..still fair?

  53. godot10 says:

    Jethro Tull: Same money and term gets you Stamkos…..still fair?

    I’d rather have a 21-year old Draisaitl for eight years than a Stamkos at mid-career heading into his thirties.

    And Stamkos signed his contract before the McDavid reset. Yzerman lucked out with timing on the Stamkos deal…i.e. before McDavid, Toronto in full rebuild with Matthews landing on their lap). He won’t be so lucky with Kucherov next time.

  54. BONE207 says:

    OriginalPouzar: roughingafterthewhistle.com

    Its a pretty darn good community and very well moderated.

    Yup, there are arguments and “fighting” among rival teams but, for the most part, is a nice community to talk sports in (as well as non-sports topics). A wealth of information.

    Always looking to grow the membership.

    A slower day today…looked in at your site. Fascinating stuff there. I got sidetracked for an hour or so. I’ll definitely look in often. Now if LT would post only once a day…

    Thanks

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