OILERS SIGN LEON DRAISAITL

Leon Draisaitl has signed an eight-year deal with the Edmonton Oilers, the organization confirming AAV at $8.5 million. That’s about $250,000 a year more than I’d estimated, expect a major reaction over the price.

Draisaitl was drafted just three summers ago and a lot has happened since then. Edmonton finally got their big center after decades of looking (Mark Messier left in 1991) and the big man’s rise from prospect to top offensive player has been a rocket going straight up. What’s more, since the 2015 orientation camp (meeting point for Leon, Darnell Nurse and newcomer Connor McDavid) these young men seem to have bonded and the chemistry has been outstanding.

LEON DRAISAITL 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.05 (2nd among regular forwards, No. 51 NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 6.67 (2nd among regular forwards, No. 10 NHL)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 51.3
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 0.5
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 52.70
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 4.8
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 172 shots/16.9%
  • Boxcars: 82, 29-48-77 (No. 8 NHL)
  • (All numbers via Puck IQStats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)

The numbers here shine like a diamond, but the price didn’t stop going up after the regular season. Draisaitl’s enormous playoff performance is a major reason that the annual cost landed at $8.5 million. We don’t know that Leon can push the river by himself, but we’re about to find out.

PROJECTED ROSTER AND CAP, 2017-18

Well, we know where the cap room was going! In truth there is still lots of room, as the odds of the entire roster hitting all bonuses is very low. I would estimate Peter Chiarelli has close to $4.5 million in cap leeway, doubt he feels the same freedom (but we’ll see).

Now, about those lines….

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168 Responses to "OILERS SIGN LEON DRAISAITL"

  1. striatic says:

    The watchword here is Risk, but at least unlike some previous contracts the Oilers have handed out, if Leon’s performance matches the bet – if he is Kopitar 2.0 – then the deal isn’t merely passable, it is incredible value.

    It’s a bet, but at least the upside is extremely high, unlike previous oilers bets in recent years when the best that could be hoped for was “not an overpay”.

  2. Ribs says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/oilers-lock-up-draisaitl-to-eight-year-68m-deal-1.831750

    His $8.85 million cap hit will be joint-10th highest in the NHL this upcoming season, tied with Steven Stamkos of the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Rangers’ Henrik Lundqvist, according to Cap Friendly.

    I hope he’s Stamkos good! He very well could be. It’s hard to tell with what we’ve seen so far.

  3. OmJo says:

    I’m stubborn, but I would have still given him a bridge contract.

    By all means I hope he proves me wrong.

  4. LadiesloveSmid says:

    1.75M more than Gaudreau.

    Cap hell thy name is Kris, Milan, and Leon.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Ribs:
    http://www.tsn.ca/oilers-lock-up-draisaitl-to-eight-year-68m-deal-1.831750

    I hope he’s Stamkos good! He very well could be. It’s hard to tell with what we’ve seen so far.

    I think that’s the big item. As Striatic states above, risk is the word and Edmonton takes it all on. That said, Leon is a very good player. That playoff run cost 1-1.5Ma season imo.

  6. Lois Lowe says:

    Thank the gords it wasn’t David Clarkson that signed this deal.

  7. dustrock says:

    He’s pretty young and untested to be getting this contract. It seems like a definite overpay.

    But then again, once I saw the RyJo contract come in at $8mx8, I figured we were in trouble, as I’m sure 31 NHL teams would rather have Drai than Johansen.

    If Anaheim Drai is the real deal, it’s a fine conttract. He’s got a lot to live up to, particularly, with Edmonton fans being the way they are, and McDavid taking a perceived market cut.

    But I will say that Draisaitl has responded very well at every level when being challenged.

  8. LMHF#1 says:

    The turtle never fails.

  9. dustrock says:

    Lowetide: I think that’s the big item. As Striatic states above, risk is the word and Edmonton takes it all on. That said, Leon is a very good player. That playoff run cost 1-1.5Ma season imo.

    100% agree.

    Getzlaf was playing probably the best hockey of his career and he was being matched, and at times outmatched, by Draisaitl.

  10. OmJo says:

    So now that we know the number, how does this affect the Oilers window for a Stanley?

  11. McNuge93 says:

    I thing McD’s and Drai’s are ground breaking deals for the NHL. It will be interesting to see where Matthews, Marner, Eichel. Laine contracts end up.

  12. Lowetide says:

    OmJo:
    So now that we know the number, how does this affect the Oilers window for a Stanley?

    It is still open. 🙂 Nuge may want to look into how much it costs to transport horses to Raleigh though.

  13. N64 says:

    I think we are missing the most important point of the deal. It dropped 15 seconds after the Lowdown show ended today.

  14. Professor Q says:

    McNuge93:
    I thing McD’s and Drai’s are ground breaking deals for the NHL. It will be interesting to see where Matthews, Marner, Eichel. Laine contracts end up.

    Leafs fans will tell you that Matthews will both have a higher and lower contract than McDavid. For a variety of reasons.

    Schrödinger’s Contract.

  15. OmJo says:

    dustrock,

    Except Getzlaf didn’t get his 8.250M/year contract until after his 8th season.

  16. Bag of Pucks says:

    Given that so much of the discussion on this contract value is likely to center around the viability of forecasting Leon as a ‘river pusher,’ is it fair to ask for a common definition of that term?

    First, is winning the corsi battle against tough comps enough, or does the player need to be a legitimate outscorer as well (i.e. not enough to generate shots, you’ve got to produce points in excess of the opposition).

    In terms of OPPs, do ‘river pushers’ have to do it against the very best, or is 2nd toughest comp sufficient for the definition?

    OR is this purely a WOWY expression with the additional layer context in terms of production or opps down to what the interpreter prefers for contextual preference?

    I think the Opposition question is particularly important in terms of the context because I very much see a situation where McDavid and RNH will be fed the toughest opps at home with the expectation on Drai that he feast on those soft minutes. I could see him posting elite production doing this but being criticized for not being a ‘river pusher’ as a result.

    Appreciate any clarity that can be provided on expectations surrounding this term.

  17. dustrock says:

    N64:
    I think we are missing the most important point of the deal. It dropped 15 seconds after the Lowdown show ended today.

    And LT had the blog ready anyway!

  18. Professor Q says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    1.75M more than Gaudreau.

    Cap hell thy name is Kris, Milan, and Leon.

    I think he’s definitely worth $1.75 million more than Gaudreau. And more.

  19. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide: Nuge may want to look into how much it costs to transport horses to Raleigh though.

    Meh – he can leave his horses here for summer and buy some new horses just across the Appalachians in Kentucky to bring with him to Raleigh, sad as it is to think about.

    I don’t hate this deal at all. Real happy he’s locked up for the long haul. Is the cap hit a bit much? Probably right now. If he can drive a line like he did in the playoffs in a larger sample? It may come in as a steal.

  20. dustrock says:

    OmJo:
    dustrock,

    Except Getzlaf didn’t get his 8.250M/year contract until after his 8th season.

    I agree 100%. The Oilers had the negotiating power here, somebody should have let Charellli know.

    Mike Kelly has already said on twitter:

    Mike Kelly‏Verified account @MikeKellyNHL 2m2 minutes ago

    Believe if Oilers had signed Draisaitl before McDavid, could have got him at around $7M AAV. Gap with McDavid became a point of contention.

  21. russ99 says:

    The cap is going up, this will be a steal in 3-4 years.

    Fair value for what he put up last year, and he’s only 21, and has lots of room to improve.

  22. dustrock says:

    stephen sheps: Meh – he can leave his horses here for summer and buy some new horses just across the Appalachians in Kentucky to bring with him to Raleigh, sad as it is to think about.

    I don’t hate this deal at all. Real happy he’s locked up for the long haul. Is the cap hit a bit much? Probably right now. If he can drive a line like he did in the playoffs in a larger sample? It may come in as a steal.

    I agree with this, and note for the record there’s a lot of “if he can” and “it may”. 🙂

  23. dustrock says:

    russ99:
    The cap is going up, this will be a steal in 3-4 years.

    Fair value for what he put up last year, and he’s only 21, and has lots of room to improve.

    Isn’t think exactly what we said for the Eberle and RNH contracts?

  24. striatic says:

    OmJo:
    So now that we know the number, how does this affect the Oilers window for a Stanley?

    Depends on whether Leon meets or exceeds or underperforms the contract.

    If he exceeds the contract, a distinct possibility as it isn’t too high for him to outperform it, it blows open a huge, wide open 8 year long window for a championship.

    If he underperforms, the Oilers are in for a world of difficulty. If he performs at a 5m AAV level that represents a waste of 3.5m AAV and I don’t think that the Oilers can win a Stanley Cup with that hanging around their neck. That represents another quality D or a significant upgrade on some other player. Margins when it comes to winning the cup are tight.

    He’s gotta be really really good, but if he’s truly an elite player 8.5 isn’t so much that he can’t outperform it by a significant margin.

  25. OmJo says:

    Professor Q: Leafs fans will tell you that Matthews will both have a higher and lower contract than McDavid. For a variety of reasons.

    Schrödinger’s Contract.

    Leafs fans will tell you a lot of things lol

    To be honest, if they got McDavid instead of us, or any other team in the league for that matter, I probably wouldn’t be able to watch NHL hockey anymore.

  26. stephen sheps says:

    dustrock,

    indeed. it’s a huge risk to spend so much on Leon’s potential, but all he has done year over year is exceed expectations. I think the ‘if’s’ and ‘may’s’ are more likely here than they were with the last group of high-potential young forwards.

    the real issue of course is what next year’s cap looks like, given this:
    https://twitter.com/CapFriendly/status/897887266198216705

  27. jtblack says:

    LMHF#1,

    Who is Speedy Turtle? He is Money

  28. OmJo says:

    Lowetide: It is still open. Nuge may want to look into how much it costs to transport horses to Raleigh though.

    Yeah, I guess this kind of seals the deal for Nuge.

    I think I just hope Draisaitl is more Malkin than Kunitz. I’m just glad I’m not the guy who has to crunch these cap numbers in a few years time, especially if/when we win the Cup.

  29. Aron_S says:

    I’ve shared this before, but it’s 18-19 that makes me toss and turn at night.

    https://capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/402950

    There’s a lot of RFAs coming up who could have numbers all over the place (and well higher than what I estimated here).

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo:
    dustrock,

    Except Getzlaf didn’t get his 8.250M/year contract until after his 8th season.

    Yup – but with that contract and a “UFA” deal, you are partially paying the player for what they’ve done in the past and expect a decline during the term of the deal.

    This 8 year contract buys all prime years and no expected decline in play.

  31. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: I am impressed with your ‘line in the sand’ post. With the arrival of Puck IQ, perhaps it is time for us to incorporate those metrics into what success looks like. My definition of pushing the river would be to win the possession battle without 97 on his line (that includes capable wingers), while also playing tough opposition and being more than 50 percent in goal differential 5×5.

  32. Doug McLachlan says:

    Would have loved a lower amount but Leon is part of the McDavid core so pay the man his money. Build around that core – as Chia is doing.

    I think that you sign Leon to this sum to be your number 2 center, not your number 1 rw.

    Will be sad to see Nuge leave but if he has to go, let’s send him on his way with a ring – no?

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Has Leon done anything in his progression as a hockey player from junior though his ELC that projects he will do anything other than continue to progress and become a legit star?

    Sure, if he become a 50-60 point player then its a bad contract but he’s done nothing but improve, year after year, and has already put up a 77 point season.

    Shit, he was 7th in playoff soaring and only played two rounds.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    The cap is going up, this will be a steal in 3-4 years.

    Fair value for what he put up last year, and he’s only 21, and has lots of room to improve.

    Is it? Its rise over the last few years has been fake, induced by the escalator and not an increase in HRR.

  35. striatic says:

    “Well, we know where the cap room was going! In truth there is still lots of room, as the odds of the entire roster hitting all bonuses is very low. I would estimate Peter Chiarelli has close to $4.5 million in cap leeway, doubt he feels the same freedom (but we’ll see).”

    LT gets at an interesting point. Now that the Draisaitl deal is done, the Oilers have no outstanding contracts to sign and know their cap situation for the year.

    I want to know what Chiarelli’s plans are for that cap space this year and if he wants to keep it for a mid-season deal or sign/trade before the season starts. Is this money to cover a Versteeg type situation coming out of camp, or to take on a playoff rental at the deadline, or sign one of the remaining UFAs this summer. It’s not a lot of cap but it is enough to still do interesting things and address balance.

  36. godot10 says:

    Fair value, right on the midpoint of the compensation (as a percentage of the cap) received by comparable centres over the last 10-15 years. 11.something % of the cap.

    #CalledIt

    Aside: It is just as likely that Maroon and Strome are history next season rather than Nugent-Hopkins.

  37. N64 says:

    McNuge93: I thing McD’s and Drai’s are ground breaking deals for the NHL. It will be interesting to see where Matthews, Marner, Eichel. Laine contracts end up.

    It will be interesting to see which cities the Matthews, Marner and Nylander contracts end up.

    FTFY

  38. Thinker says:

    I love Draisaitl, but I see this going bad if he is just a 25 goal 60 pt guy on his own line.

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide:
    Bag of Pucks: I am impressed with your ‘line in the sand’ post. With the arrival of Puck IQ, perhaps it is time for us to incorporate those metrics into what success looks like. My definition of pushing the river would be to win the possession battle without 97 on his line (that includes capable wingers), while also playing tough opposition and being more than 50 percent in goal differential 5×5.

    Gotcha. So 2nd toughest OPP minimum?

    Btw, given the neophyte I still am with much of this stuff, I consider it major progress to impress our host with a largely analytics driven post.

    Everything I’ve learned on this topic is via this way cool site called Lowetide.ca

    In fact, it’s given me a MacTavish-esque online MBA in everything from hockey stats to single malt scotch to the entire Nathalie Wood filmography. I’m a much more well rounded man now!

  40. flyfish1168 says:

    PC is a generous man. He got canned in Beantown due to his inability to manage the CAP, I’m not sure if he has learned much. Next year will be huge. I hate to lose more skill players. I believe, Nuge, Marron and possible Sekera are gone to start the 2018/19 season. Just to try and sign Nurse, Benning and Drake, Strome and Slepyshev. JMHO

  41. leadfarmer says:

    The Oilers just put the nail in the coffin of the second contract. Paid UFA money for a majority RFA contract. Going to be hard to keep complementary players going forward

  42. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Has Leon done anything in his progression as a hockey player from junior though his ELC that projects he will do anything other than continue to progress and become a legit star?

    Sure, if he become a 50-60 point player then its a bad contract but he’s done nothing but improve, year after year, and has already put up a 77 point season.

    Shit, he was 7th in playoff soaring and only played two rounds.

    I think the only worryis that he plateaus, and that has happened in hockey history (a player his age reaches his outer marker). I felt, as the negotiations lingers, we were looking at about $8.25 million, so this isn’t a massive gap. 97 turned back $750,000 iirc, looks like those dollars went to 29.

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Has Leon done anything in his progression as a hockey player from junior though his ELC that projects he will do anything other than continue to progress and become a legit star?

    Sure, if he become a 50-60 point player then its a bad contract but he’s done nothing but improve, year after year, and has already put up a 77 point season.

    Shit, he was 7th in playoff soaring and only played two rounds.

    In addition to finishing 8th in both regular season AND playoff scoring, I thought his play with Team Europe in the World Cup was a major positive arrow. By my eye, he was a definite river pusher on a club which very much exceeded the pre tournament expectations.

  44. McNuge93 says:

    Professor Q: Leafs fans will tell you that Matthews will both have a higher and lower contract than McDavid. For a variety of reasons.

    Schrödinger’s Contract.

    That’s absurd said the cat.

  45. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    The Oilers just put the nail in the coffin of the second contract.Paid UFA money for a majority RFA contract.Going to be hard to keep complementary players going forward

    I would phrase it as ‘difficult for complementary players to exceed $4 million AAV’.

  46. Lowetide says:

    flyfish1168:
    PC is a generous man. He got canned in Beantown due to his inability to manage the CAP, I’m not sure if he has learned much. Next year will be huge. I hate to lose more skill players. I believe, Nuge, Marron and possible Sekera are gone to start the 2018/19 season. Just to try and sign Nurse, Benning and Drake, Strome and Slepyshev. JMHO

    Chiarelli spent bigly on complementary players. The Draisaitl deal won’t get him fired, but the Russell contract might.

  47. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: Chiarelli spent bigly on complementary players. The Draisaitl deal won’t get him fired, but the Russell contract might.

    If we’re betting on which contract will be the albatross, my money is on the Lucic deal.

  48. godot10 says:

    A team doesn’t doesn’t get into cap trouble paying the players who make a difference. A team gets into cap trouble by paying players (in dollars and/or duration) who don’t really make a difference.

    Russell, and Lucic (if he doesn’t bounce back) are the problematic contracts.

  49. Gret99zky says:

    I guessed $7.75M per but am fine with the $8.5M.

    He will have to earn it and certainly projects to do so.

    I look forward to watching Leon center the #2 line and put up 70+ points each year.

    Nice to have our two best forwards locked up for 8 years. Glad it’s done.

    This is a great time for Oiler fans. Can’t wait for the puck to drop!

  50. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: I would phrase it as ‘difficult for complementary players to exceed $4 million AAV’.

    Yeah true but we have no shortage of those and Chia doesnt seem like he’s putting a boot to the jugular on contracts. We really need the cap to go up quickly going forward. We are paying out contracts like we expect it to go up but its only going up by using escalators. Its crazy to think what would happen if the cap goes down in a year

  51. Cassandra says:

    This contract makes no sense

    It is without precedent for a player of Draisatl’s track record and contract status.

    What is the upside? How many points does Draisatl have to score for this contract to break even measured against other deals coming out of ELC?

    If he repeats the same season, why is he getting paid so much more than Tarasenko? He’s not better than him.

    Therefore, to justify paying Draisaitl so much more than Tarasenko he needs to play better than Tarasenko. That means something on the order of an 80-90 point season, while playing away from McDavid.

  52. admiralmark says:

    8.5 is about 1 million over what I felt was fair. This is a contract for an already proven river pusher. Drai is a player that compliments well for sure. And appears to be on a trajectory to become a stand alone river pusher. But he is not one yet. Should of bridged him IMO. Or better yet they should of signed him to an extension 1 year ago. IF you are determined to make heavy bets on projecting a player you need to be doing it in the year before they explode onto the scene, its called good GM’ing.

    I’m not gonna cry over a 1 million but there are some poor tendancies being shown by Oiler management. The type that keeps your team short of a Cup. 1) STOP effing devaluing players to the point of oblivion prior to trading them. 2) START assessing the talent of the players you have in house “early” enough to make the astute move of signing them to a value contract or trading them when they have percieved value to other teams. More Klefbom’s and less Eberle, Hall, Petry, Draisaitl, Dubnyk.. etc. What contract do we think they could of signed Draisaitl to 1 year ago? $6 mill?

    I’m not slamming Chiarelli or any specific individual here.. It’s been a theme for a very long time with this team. It’s one thing to miss an assessment on a free agent its completely unacceptable to miss an assessment on a player in house. You have all the finute details needed to make the correct call. So why do they miss the mark so often? Now that the major characters and cap space have been locked in for the near future. The only way this team can make the final steps to a Cup or multiple cups is if they can get ahead of the curve in their assessments. It’s gonna take a major shift from what they have been doing if they are going to be more successful in this area.

  53. Cassandra says:

    striatic: Depends on whether Leon meets or exceeds or underperforms the contract.

    If he exceeds the contract, a distinct possibility as it isn’t too high for him to outperform it, it blows open a huge, wide open 8 year long window for a championship.

    If he underperforms, the Oilers are in for a world of difficulty. If he performs at a 5m AAV level that represents a waste of 3.5m AAV and I don’t think that the Oilers can win a Stanley Cup with that hanging around their neck. That represents another quality D or a significant upgrade on some other player. Margins when it comes to winning the cup are tight.

    He’s gotta be really really good, but if he’s truly an elite player 8.5 isn’t so much that he can’t outperform it by a significant margin.

    Honest question. What counts as exceeding the contract? Elite players get paid 8.5 million for their UFA deals.

    Given that Draisatl is coming out of his ELC deal, this means that Draisatl has to be better than elite to justify this contract.

  54. dustrock says:

    I was tweeting with Dellow about this, and I think it’s been mentioned on here several times.

    The star players are underpaid for what their replacement level is, compared to the old vets and the grinders.

    I get the feeling this is a bit of a sea change towards young star players getting a better chunk of their true value, and it’s going to be the Gritensity guys whose overall salary drops.

    And I’m fine with that.

  55. N64 says:

    godot10: #CalledIt

    Think the consensus was the combo would end up in the 21-22M per year range. Obviously preferred 21M. Now we need Connor to be worth that rumored 13.25M offer and Drai to be worth at least 7.75M.

    http://lowetide.ca/2017/07/06/a-satisfied-mind/#comment-659015

    “Suspect this will end up in the 21-22 range if they [both] close a 8 year deal.”

  56. jm363561 says:

    Absolutely hate it – at least a million a year too much.

    McDavid 100 regular season points, +27. Leon 77 points, +7. If Leon is the “river pusher” of urban legend, it is a downhill push only. He cannot yet stop the river being pushed against. If he played for the Flames we would all be saying he cheats on defence. And please don’t tell me 13 play off games warrants eight years and $68m. I think Chia has done a great job so far but this is a reckless gamble with the McDavid years. He should have been bridged.

  57. dustrock says:

    Anyway, I get less upset about these kind of deals than the ones for Lucic and Russell.

    If you’re going to gamble on a player, better to do it for someone like Drai Diesel than Looch or KR.

    All signs point to Ja.

  58. N64 says:

    Cassandra: Honest question.What counts as exceeding the contract?Elite players get paid 8.5 million for their UFA deals.

    Given that Draisatl is coming out of his ELC deal, this means that Draisatl has to be better than elite to justify this contract.

    If elite RFAs are still getting less the elite UFAs going forward, then I’d agree the number should be less and that certainly also cover downside risk.

    But even then if all that is true I’d still say 29 has to BE elite to match the contract once given.

  59. Cassandra says:

    Thinker:
    I love Draisaitl, but I see this going bad if he is just a 25 goal 60 pt guy on his own line.

    This is an unnecessary contract if he is an 80 point player on his own line.

    To evaluate this contract you have to begin with an appropriate heuristic based on the RFA status.

    1) With an RFA contract it is almost impossible to overpay a player in comparison to an UFA contract. Thus in absolute terms in terms of the cost of replacing Draisatl on the UFA market Draisatl should provide value at this number.

    2) But measuring the value in those terms neglects the RFA status, that is the Oilers should be expected to beat UFA market value here, otherwise they are losing value relative to the rest of the league who gets discounts on their RFA players.

    3) Given that this is the largest contract of its kind outside of McDavid, this means that Draisatl has to be pretty much the best player in the league other than McDavid for this deal to break even.

    4) Therefore there is no upside to this deal. The Oilers have taken 99% of the risk.

    Defenders of the deal are evaluating it as an UFA deal, and by that measure it would be fine. But it isn’t an UFA deal. It isn’t even a nearing UFA deal like Kuznetsov or Johansen. It is a straight out of ELC deal and should be evaluated as such.

  60. N64 says:

    jm363561: Absolutely hate it – at least a million a year too much.

    Recall the team was trying to do those 2 contracts together until 97 jumped ahead of 29 and signed at .75M below what Oil were apparently agreeable to. 97 apparently underwrote 3/4 of that million too much.

  61. N64 says:

    Cassandra: It is a straight out of ELC deal and should be evaluated as such.

    Like McDavids.

  62. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra:
    This contractmakes no sense

    It is without precedent for a player of Draisatl’s track record and contract status.

    What is the upside?How many points does Draisatl have to score for this contract to break even measured against other deals coming out of ELC?

    If he repeats the same season, why is he getting paid so much more than Tarasenko?He’s not better than him.

    Therefore, to justify paying Draisaitl so much more than Tarasenko he needs to play better than Tarasenko.That means something on the order of an 80-90 point season, while playing away from McDavid.

    McDavid contract blew up the pay scales. Tarasenko would never sign that contract now. In 5 years we will be talking about how crazy the new contracts are for players signing then.

    I am curious if it took them a month and a half to come at 8.5 per where did the negotiations start

  63. Washingtron says:

    Apologies if this has already been touched on, been hectic and haven’t read all the comments yet. The two things I haven’t seen discussed in the lead up to the Drai signings are:

    1. The teams with the big name big contract duos, Pitt and Chi, did well or won while in the ELC years, then signed the big contracts, then the team does not great for a few seasons while the cap goes up and good supporting pieces become affordable again, then they win again. I think it’s great we have both of these amazing supernova fireworks on our squad, and I think they deserve the money they’re getting paid, I think it does delay domination for a while.

    2. If Drai comes off 97’s wing, who wins the faceoffs? I know FO’s are important then not important then important in certain parts of the game, but overall the 1 line’s initial possession would go down, no?

    I dunno, thoughts?

  64. Jordan says:

    As with all long-term deals, it’s a gamble.

    Considering the information we have, I think it’s a good bet that this is at least an okay deal for the Oilers moving forwards.

    Much more concerned about Russell and Lucic contracts than Leon’s deal.

    Even if this means Leon is stapled to Connor’s RW for the next 8 years, if he plays like he did this past year, I’m totally okay with it.

    Questions come next off-season. Lets hope there’s some good options.

    Wish i could have a beer right now. Good day so far!

  65. stush18 says:

    Cassandra,

    I’m sorry but this is ridiculous thinking.

    Go ahead and read any of Godots extensive and well thought out posts on this subject. He’s signed to a similar percentage of the cap as plenty of players before him.

    The NHLPA put pressure on mcdavid to not take a discount. It’s raises everyone’s pay.

  66. The Trade Guy says:

    Since the cap was implemented, the league seems to be going younger and younger, and second contract is going higher and higher.

    The time when the league underpaid you until you could be a UFA at 31 and then you got paid a bunch of money when you weren’t worth it, is done.

    I’d rather pay Draisaitl in his prime this kind of money than Getzlaf as his career winds down (or Lucic for that matter)

    PC has moved all the money off the wings (except Lucic) and he should keep filling those spots with prospects and good vets looking to rebuild their value.

    He just needs to get better at not paying as much for bottom pairing defensemen but he’s hardly alone in being guilty of that.

  67. stush18 says:

    Looking at it from the oilers perspective, I would have never done a bridge deal.

    What happens if he signs a two yr or five yr deal and continues like he has? Then the oilers are screwed when it comes to their cap.

    It’s a gamble, but a gamble I am 100% on board with. I cannot see Leon ever regressing to the point that he isn’t worth this contract, even if he stays on mcdavid swings for the rest of his career.

  68. stush18 says:

    The Trade Guy,

    I think the oilers believe Russell is a top four dman, and as such have no quarrel paying him as such.

  69. Cassandra says:

    godot10:
    A team doesn’t doesn’t get into cap trouble paying the players who make a difference.A team gets into cap trouble by paying players (in dollars and/or duration) who don’t really make a difference.

    Russell, and Lucic (if he doesn’t bounce back) are the problematic contracts.

    Money is money. A 1 million overpayment on Draisatl is equally wasteful to a 1 million overpayment on someone else.

    Your point is that with Draisatl the floor of performance is higher and hence there is less downside than with Lucic whose floor value is zero. This is both true and a red herring.

  70. oscarmike says:

    The lines don’t make any sense. Strome will need a new contract next year and playing him on McDavids wing will yield +$6million/yr. We know that McDavid and Leon play really well together and that Jussi was brought in to mentor JP. Once JP gets going he will play in the Top 6 with Lucic+RNH. Jussi will get bumped down to the 4th line and Drake will play 3rd LW. The Oilers will have to play it smart with Drake,Strome,Benning and Nurse, especially if they want to re-sign Maroon and then JP and Talbot the following years.

    Maroon-McD-Leon
    Lucic-RNH-Sleppy
    Jussi-Strome-JP
    Drake-Let-Kass

    Maroon-McD-Leon
    Lucic-RNH-JP
    Drake-Strome-Sleppy
    Jussi-Let-Kassin

  71. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer: McDavid contract blew up the pay scales.Tarasenko would never sign that contract now.In 5 years we will be talking about how crazy the new contracts are for players signing then.

    I am curious if it took them a month and a half to come at 8.5 per where did the negotiations start

    McDavid is, or should be, on a different scale. Kuznetsov and Johansen both signed contracts this year and they were in line with previous expectations.

    In any case, with the cap it is impossible for contracts to escalate because of other contracts, all that can happen is that money move from some players to other players.

    If the Oilers pay more for their Draisatl than other teams pay for their Draisatl that means they are going to lose other players down the line. There is no way around this.

  72. Ice Sage says:

    A great day.

    Building a championship team.

    For real.

    goodbye alt-Oil

  73. Cassandra says:

    stush18:
    Cassandra,

    I’m sorry but this is ridiculous thinking.

    Go ahead and read any of Godots extensive and well thought out posts on this subject. He’s signed to a similar percentage of the cap as plenty of players before him.

    The NHLPA put pressure on mcdavid to not take a discount. It’s raises everyone’s pay.

    Godot doesn’t know what he’s talking about. He seems to think Draisatl would get 11 or 12 milliion as a free agent. That is absurd without significant cap escalation.

    In any case, the comparable game has been played extensively already that what you are suggesting is not true. The only halfway similar comparable contract is Kopitar may years ago. All other comparables got paid much less by % of the cap.

    Speaking of % of the cap, you last statement is also false. With a cap, it is impossible for McDavid’s contract to raise the pay of other players. Indeed, the opposite happens.

  74. Jethro Tull says:

    With Cassadra on this.

    Drai’s the gambler, the Oilers the casino.

    Drai ran the table last year and has reaped the rewards and the Oilers have just bet on him to do it again with their own house money.

    Lifting the bucket whilst standing in it.

  75. YKOil says:

    All the risk on the Oilers. Oilers seem to pump everyone’s f&*king tires come their contract year. From Stoll to Gagner to the Austins to Drai, and those players NEVER seem to give back to the team. Oilers have to stop doing this, just kills the team long term.

    Next year: Cap $75.0-77.5 million / Salary $60.7 / Players 13

    So ~ $14.3 – $16.3 million to sign 10-11 players

    That 10-11 players includes:

    — Nurse, Benning, Slepyshev, Caggiula and Strome as RFA’s
    — Letestu and Maroon as UFA’s

    More than Nuge will be gone next year. As every GM worth his salt will know this do not expect a good return for Nuge.

    That is worth repeating: More than Nuge will be gone next year. As every GM worth his salt will know this do not expect a good return for Nuge.

    So, short of huge jumps in performance from Benson, Yamamoto and Puljujarvi this team could easily be worse next year than this year as Nuge (for scraps), Letestu and probably Maroon will be gone,

    Awesome.

  76. The Trade Guy says:

    stush18:
    The Trade Guy,

    I think the oilers believe Russell is a top four dman, and as such have no quarrel paying him as such.

    I agree, but I think they view him as one this year and maybe next year. Then they live with his salary at the bottom pairing or trade him.

  77. theboyfromsouthdetroit says:

    I feel like those who wanted to see RFA value as opposed to UFA value on this contract are missing something.

    Chances are (barring an outrageous offer sheet, which is unlikely given the old boys GM club’s reticence to use them) the Oilers could have gotten fair RFA value for Leon on a two year deal. But if you want to see Leon signed at an RFA number, you also have to be willing to accept the very real possibility of a much larger cap number when that deal is up.

    Not only are you then looking at real-deal UFA pricing with no RFA leverage, but in the next two years we’re going to continue to see top-end players’ contacts inflate. If Leon didn’t improve a bit in the next two years, he’d still likely be signing his first UFA contract for $10mAAV.

    This isn’t an overpay for the player as he stands today… It’s a bet on the player he’ll be three years from now. If you want to pay him for what he is today, you’re signing him to a bridge deal and paying him even more (or, more likely, kissing him goodbye) in 2019.

    By the way, I call it a solid bet.

    Edit to add: When I say that top-flight players’ numbers are going up, I’m not saying it’s because of the cap. The structure of an NHL team’s cap is changing and more money is being redistributed toward the top.

  78. rope-a-dope says:

    I’ll be honest, I thought there would be a lot more “woooooing” going on in here.

    It’s a bit above where it should be, 250, 500, pick a number. But for all those complaining that it’s too high, would you have preferred to trade Leon? The young man is a unique commodity, another one isn’t available via trade for 500K less. Now the core is locked up, this is good.

  79. Cassandra says:

    stush18:
    Looking at it from the oilers perspective, I would have never done a bridge deal.

    What happens if he signs a two yr or five yr deal and continues like he has? Then the oilers are screwed when it comes to their cap.

    It’s a gamble, but a gamble I am 100% on board with. I cannot see Leon ever regressing to the point that he isn’t worth this contract, even if he stays on mcdavid swings for the rest of his career.

    When Johansen was 22 he had a year similar to what Draisatl just did. Given the quality of teammates, probably better.

    If the Oilers bridged Draisatl they would have gotten him for less for the next three years, giving the team money to improve elsewhere, and then they could have signed Draisatl for similar to what they just did three years from now.

    I repeat, there is very little chance that Draisatl won’t be worth his contract the way that Lucic is already a drag on the roster. However, that isn’t the appropriate comparison. If Draisatl isn’t outplaying Monahan, and Kuznetsov, and Johansen, and all the rest by a significant margin then the Oilers are losing out against the competition because they are paying their players more than their peers.

    But I won’t lose sleep over this. This is a wasted 1 to 1.5 million, not a Lucic signing, but it does provide more evidence that Chiarelli always overpays.

  80. Cameron says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Would have loved a lower amount but Leon is part of the McDavid core so pay the man his money.Build around that core – as Chia is doing.

    I think that you sign Leon to this sum to be your number 2 center, not your number 1 rw.

    Will be sad to see Nuge leave but if he has to go, let’s send him on his way with a ring – no?

    Hard No.

  81. Oilers8833 says:

    Man this is a tough crowd. I thought all along that 7.5 to 8 mill would be the cost….closer to 8 mil. I would agree with what Dellow was saying and was mentioned earlier. I think that this is the start of higher contracts for Great to elite players for upcoming years (Tavares, Matthews, Eichel, Laine) and less money to the 3rd and 4th line players, who are now going to have to get paid in the 2 mill and under area where historically they were getting anywhere from 2.5 mil to 5 mil (ie Pouliot, Andrew Shaw, Clutterbuck) the list goes on.

    Also for all the Chia detractors in a way this contract is good. It is going to force him to not sign anymore potential albatross Lucic, Russell contracts. Me I lean towards this contract being generous but not outrageous and a potential bargain if Leon reaches his potential combined with the salary cap going up. Which at even two percent a year would be around 89,000,000 near the end of Leons contract.

  82. theboyfromsouthdetroit says:

    Cassandra:
    If the Oilers bridged Draisatl they would have gotten him for less for the next three years, giving the team money to improve elsewhere, and then they could have signed Draisatl for similar to what they just did three years from now.

    This is simply not true. If you think a top ten scoring 1C would sign a long term $8.5M deal as a UFA on July 1st 2020 you’re absolutely kidding yourself.

    Signing star players long term and early = value in the latter years of the contract. Evidence abounds.

  83. Cassandra says:

    theboyfromsouthdetroit,

    theboyfromsouthdetroit:
    I feel like those who wanted to see RFA value as opposed to UFA value on this contract are missing something.

    Chances are (barring an outrageous offer sheet, which is unlikely given the old boys GM club’s reticence to use them) the Oilers could have gotten fair RFA value for Leon on a two year deal. But if you want to see Leon signed at an RFA number, you also have to be willing to accept the very real possibility of a much larger cap number when that deal is up.

    Not only are you then looking at real-deal UFA pricing with no RFA leverage, but in the next two years we’re going to continue to see top-end players’ contacts inflate. If Leon didn’t improve a bit in the next two years, he’d still likely be signing his first UFA contract for $10mAAV.

    This isn’t an overpay for the player as he stands today… It’s a bet on the player he’ll be three years from now. If you want to pay him for what he is today, you’re signing him to a bridge deal and paying him even more (or, more likely, kissing him goodbye) in 2019.

    By the way, I call it a solid bet.

    theboyfromsouthdetroit:
    I feel like those who wanted to see RFA value as opposed to UFA value on this contract are missing something.

    Chances are (barring an outrageous offer sheet, which is unlikely given the old boys GM club’s reticence to use them) the Oilers could have gotten fair RFA value for Leon on a two year deal. But if you want to see Leon signed at an RFA number, you also have to be willing to accept the very real possibility of a much larger cap number when that deal is up.

    Not only are you then looking at real-deal UFA pricing with no RFA leverage, but in the next two years we’re going to continue to see top-end players’ contacts inflate. If Leon didn’t improve a bit in the next two years, he’d still likely be signing his first UFA contract for $10mAAV.

    This isn’t an overpay for the player as he stands today… It’s a bet on the player he’ll be three years from now. If you want to pay him for what he is today, you’re signing him to a bridge deal and paying him even more (or, more likely, kissing him goodbye) in 2019.

    By the way, I call it a solid bet.

    Someone correct me if I am wrong, but Draisatl is five years away from free agency. A three year bridge deal still gives the Oilers two more years of control. That is, or should be, significant leverage.

    It seems to me that people who are happy about this are more afraid of losing the player than they should be. Where is he going to go? If the Oilers are winning he is going to want to stay, and if the Oilers aren’t winning while paying Draisatl 6 million on a bridge deal then they sure aren’t going to be winning paying him 8.5 million.

    The Oilers are buying good will here, but what is the value of good will if you have to pay for it?

    If the Oilers young players turn out as hoped the Oilers are going to have to learn to play hardball or they are going to lose them.

  84. Jethro Tull says:

    Oilers8833,

    Tavares is in his last year of a $5.5M contract. And he is PROVEN. So he should get? $10M? Is Drai now, worth $3M more than Tavares, even accounting for inflation, cap growth, etc? The bridge was the way, it protected both the team and the player. But it’s been blown up.

  85. Professor Q says:

    stush18:
    Cassandra,

    I’m sorry but this is ridiculous thinking.

    Go ahead and read any of Godots extensive and well thought out posts on this subject. He’s signed to a similar percentage of the cap as plenty of players before him.

    The NHLPA put pressure on mcdavid to not take a discount. It’s raises everyone’s pay.

    Kopitar is the only one I can think of. And he was the Kings’ top line centre.

  86. Oilers8833 says:

    YKOil,

    This was a reality if Leon signed for 7.5 or 8.5 million. 1 million was not going to get you all of those players. The second Leon has the season and playoffs he did, the writing was on the wall for Nuge.

    Same with Maroon potentially after getting 27 goals and if he has a similar season this year, he has priced himself out of our cap structure unless he takes a huge discount to continue to play with McDavid and I don’t see that happening.

    I think Leon’s contract is very generous but if you think that 1 million overpay is the difference between a Stanley Cup you are mistaken. I would look more at the Russell and Lucic contracts if you want to place blame on Chia. To bitch about an overpay for a player who is 21, just scored top 10 in scoring and most likely hasn’t reached his potential yet, is placing blame in the wrong place in my opinion…..for the GM or the player.

  87. Professor Q says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Oilers8833,

    Tavares is in his last year of a $5.5M contract.And he is PROVEN.So he should get?$10M?Is Drai now, worth $3M more than Tavares, even accounting for inflation, cap growth, etc?The bridge was the way, it protected both the team and the player.But it’s been blown up.

    There were actually rumblings of Tavares getting $10 million x 8 years.

  88. Lowetide says:

    The bridge means you’re trading the player imo. I agree (and said above) the risk is with the Oilers on this contract. There isn’t a comparable for this contract that i can find, suggesting there is some exposure for Edmonton. They are going to trade Nuge, that is the price.

  89. Jethro Tull says:

    To put it another way, if we’d have sent Drai for Subban, we probably wouldn’t have signed Russell and kept Davidson. Our D would be:

    Klef – Larsson
    Reggie – Subban
    Davy – Benny

    Or a mix up of the above.

  90. judgedrude says:

    Can we look at it this way?

    Compared to 7M AAV, are there two players out there who are willing to take a 750k lower salary to play with Dr. Drai and McD and hopefully get a Stanley? Top teams often find value deals on free agents, and maybe that will be the expectation…similar to the JJ signing.

  91. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: Chiarelli spent bigly on complementary players. The Draisaitl deal won’t get him fired, but the Russell contract might.

    Very good point LT. I just think PC has done good body of work. But when it comes to purse strings, counting pennies, guarding the bank he has his short falls. Milan, Kris, Leon and Andre all have a slightly higher margin of cost than I prefer. Yes they are all valuable assets for us. But is he not able to sell the team, proud to being an Oiler, we want to win with you and we have something good here. Work them into thinking it’s not about getting every penny you can grab. I’m starting to believe PC weakness as GM, is negotiating contracts that is to build a strong sustainable team for many years in a CAP world. He is more of a short term, win right now, one and out. JMHO

  92. Cassandra says:

    theboyfromsouthdetroit: This is simply not true. If you think a top ten scoring 1C would sign a long term $8.5M deal as a UFA on July 1st 2020you’re absolutely kidding yourself.

    Signing star players long term and early = value in the latter years of the contract. Evidence abounds.

    Where are you getting this 2020 number?

    In any case Stamkos, with five seasons at a pt/gm or better to Draisatl’s zero, signed as a free agent for 8.5 million.

  93. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide:
    The bridge means you’re trading the player imo. I agree (and said above) the risk is with the Oilers on this contract. There isn’t a comparable for this contract that i can find, suggesting there is some exposure for Edmonton. They are going to trade Nuge, that is the price.

    How soon is the important question, non?

    Also: Crosby and Malkin were bridged.

  94. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    The bridge means you’re trading the player imo. I agree (and said above) the risk is with the Oilers on this contract. There isn’t a comparable for this contract that i can find, suggesting there is some exposure for Edmonton. They are going to trade Nuge, that is the price.

    Not true. Name one bridge contract where the player has been dealt forthwith. Not saying there isn’t any, but I’m trying to think hard of a significant one.

  95. Side says:

    stush18:
    Cassandra,

    I’m sorry but this is ridiculous thinking.

    Go ahead and read any of Godots extensive and well thought out posts on this subject. He’s signed to a similar percentage of the cap as plenty of players before him.

    The NHLPA put pressure on mcdavid to not take a discount. It’s raises everyone’s pay.

    Godot bases his contracts on whether a player is (x) or (/) better than another player. He said Drai is 2/3 the player as McDavid, therefore he should get 2/3 the contract that McDavid has received.

    Godot has also said Drai is “2x better” than Russell, therefore Drai should get $8 million.

    He also feels the Oilers believe Talbot and Russell are 1:1 in terms of skill because they are receiving $4 million a year.

    All of the above is odd, for various reasons. Not sure what about those posts was “extensive” or “well thought”.

  96. Cassandra says:

    Lowetide:
    The bridge means you’re trading the player imo. I agree (and said above) the risk is with the Oilers on this contract. There isn’t a comparable for this contract that i can find, suggesting there is some exposure for Edmonton. They are going to trade Nuge, that is the price.

    Why does the bridge contract mean you are trading the player? I don’t understand why this would be.

  97. su_dhillon says:

    I like Leon a lot but paying him absolute top dollar when he didn’t have the leverage or comparables to get that kind of price seems like just poor negotiating. You are paying top dollar, basically Leon has to be 100% of the player you hope he an be for the money to be right with zero upside.

    Oilers still can build a championship team and pay Leon $8.5M but they basically have to be right on everyone else. There is very little room for error now, which is crazy because the one thing having McDavid on your team provides is lot of room for error.

  98. theboyfromsouthdetroit says:

    Cassandra:
    theboyfromsouthdetroit,

    Someone correct me if I am wrong, but Draisatl is five years away from free agency.A three year bridge deal still gives the Oilers two more years of control.That is, or should be, significant leverage.

    You’re right on that account – my quip about Leon being a UFA in 2020 was wrong. That said, the idea of leverage when you’re signing past RFA years is still silly. You have leverage over those years, specifically. Asking a player to sign for UFA years is giving up that leverage.

    Let’s do a thought exercise. Bridge contract for Leon. Three years at RFA prices. $6.5M? Then say Liut plays hardball about signing away UFA years again when the three years are up (he will). Two more years at 5% cap inflation (ignoring the potential for player improvement and the ongoing trend of cap dollars concentrating at the top). Two years at 6.8M. That’s ~33M for his RFA years.

    How much would three UFA years cost for Leon in 2022? Willing to bet that he’d sign for less than $12M after 5 years of cap inflation? Willing to bet that he hasn’t established himself as a top ten scorer? Willing to bet he would even sign with the team that spent seven years using their RFA leverage as a hammer? That’s the only way you come out ahead of $68M over 8 years.

  99. N64 says:

    judgedrude:
    Can we look at it this way?

    Compared to 7M AAV, are there two players out there who are willing to take a 750k lower salary to play with Dr. Drai and McD and hopefully get a Stanley?Top teams often find value deals on free agents, and maybe that will be the expectation…similar to the JJ signing.

    You only need to find one more guy. McDavid was the first guy to take 750K less to be on a team that has both of them for 8 years.

  100. godot10 says:

    Side: Godot bases his contracts on whether a player is (x) or (/) better than another player. He said Drai is 2/3 the player as McDavid, therefore he should get 2/3 the contract that McDavid has received.

    Godot has also said Drai is “2x better” than Russell, therefore Drai should get $8 million.

    He also feels the Oilers believe Talbot and Russell are 1:1 in terms of skill because they are receiving $4 million a year.

    All of the above is odd, for various reasons. Not sure what about those posts was “extensive” or “well thought”.

    I did a comparison of a whole host of what other centres received in the 8 years after their ELC as a percentage of the cap about a month ago on Lowetide.

    Just over 11% of the cap was pretty much the midpoint.

    A bridge contract would be a false saving, since the AAV of the subsequent contract would be prohibitive. Draisaitl will be the last centre of his quality that will be locked up for less than $10 million AAV.

    There is a great benefit in cost certainty for McDavid and Draisaitl for the next eight years planning wise.

    Aside: Crosby and Malkin were not bridged.

    If one is certain that a player is part of your core, it makes no sense to bridge him UNLESS on is already cap constrained. (i.e. Tampa).

  101. Oilers8833 says:

    Professor Q: There were actually rumblings of Tavares getting $10 million x 8 years.

    You beat me to the punch. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Tavares gets 9-10 million. I think Toronto would gladly back up the Brinks truck with 80 mil over 8 years for Tavares.

    I don’t disagree that the Leon contract was a lot of cheddar, a bridge contract is just as much of a gamble as the 8 year deal at a higher price. The Oilers took more of a risk on this than they should have, but I will take this any day over whatever deal that Tavares is going to sign next year….and I doubt that will get nearly as much vitrol here on on twitter as the Leon signing is getting today.

  102. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra: Why does the bridge contract mean you are trading the player?I don’t understand why this would be.

    I’m thinking of Subban, who was signed to a bridge and then a contract the general manager didn’t seem happy to sign. There are others that seem to work out that way.

  103. Professor Q says:

    godot10,

    They absolutely were bridged. 5 year deals as opposed to 8 or more, like what Ovechkin got (although Ovechkin had the advantage of signing his after Crosby did).

    Yes, different era and there were no 8 year limits, but still. Relatively Crosby could have asked for a contract as long as Ovechkin’s.

  104. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull: Not true.Name one bridge contract where the player has been dealt forthwith.Not saying there isn’t any, but I’m trying to think hard of a significant one.

    Subban. They bridged him and then seemed unhappy at losing the bet. That possibility, in my opinion, meant signing for 8 years was always the preferred path.

  105. Oilers8833 says:

    Lowetide:
    The bridge means you’re trading the player imo. I agree (and said above) the risk is with the Oilers on this contract. There isn’t a comparable for this contract that i can find, suggesting there is some exposure for Edmonton. They are going to trade Nuge, that is the price.

    Nuge was getting traded whether the contract was 7.5 or 8.5. Writting was on the wall as soon as Leon had the year he did.

  106. Nate780 says:

    Good Ol’ Oiler fans. Never happy, always something to whine about.

  107. Side says:

    godot10: I did a comparison of a whole host of what other centres received in the 8 years after their ELC as a percentage of the cap about a month ago on Lowetide.

    Just over 11% of the cap was pretty much the midpoint.

    A bridge contract would be a false saving, since the AAV of the subsequent contract would be prohibitive.Draisaitl will be the last centre of his quality that will be locked up for less than $10 million AAV.

    There is a great benefit in cost certainty for McDavid and Draisaitl for the next eight years planning wise.

    Aside:Crosby and Malkin were not bridged.

    If one is certain that a player is part of your core, it makes no sense to bridge him UNLESS on is already cap constrained. (i.e. Tampa).

    All of this depends on Draisaitl actually playing centre for a whole year where he can carry his own line.

    This hasn’t happened yet.

    How can we do comparisons between Drai and other “centres of his quality” if he spent a good chunk of his time on the wing?

  108. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: Subban. They bridged him and then seemed unhappy at losing the bet. That possibility, in my opinion, meant signing for 8 years was always the preferred path.

    As opposed to the Karlsson contract immediately post-ELC which gives Ottawa a steal of a contract.

    I suppose I see what you mean. I’m sort of in the middle on much of these issues.

  109. Georges says:

    Lowetide:
    Bag of Pucks: I am impressed with your ‘line in the sand’ post. With the arrival of Puck IQ, perhaps it is time for us to incorporate those metrics into what success looks like. My definition of pushing the river would be to win the possession battle without 97 on his line (that includes capable wingers), while also playing tough opposition and being more than 50 percent in goal differential 5×5.

    Whelp.

    Now that it’s done and alternative ways of looking at things are few, I believe Drai is a point per game player and he will be as much a 1A to CMD as Malkin is to Crosby.

    Pushing the river for forwards is:

    – outscoring by a lot at 5v5 without dreadful possession numbers
    – logging lots of minutes
    – top 5 PP1 unit (maybe top 10)
    – teammates’ results with you are typically better than without you; i.e., the team doesn’t have to bend backwards to create situations for you to do well
    – high IPP
    – excellent possession numbers when the team is trailing

    Draisaitl ftw.

  110. rickithebear says:

    Cassandra: Where are you getting this 2020 number?

    In any case Stamkos, with five seasons at a pt/gm or better to Draisatl’s zero, signed as a free agent for 8.5 million.

    The saw him good crowd uses pt/gm

    belichek and myself look for Consistent baseline performance.

    Stamkos pt/gm ?
    last 2 years:
    15-16
    Stamkos: on roster for 82gm; 77gm played 93.9%
    82gm 36G 64P; .439 GPG .780 PPG
    Draisatl on roster 72gm; 72gm played 100%
    72gm 18G 52P; .264 GPG .708 PPG

    16-17
    Stamkos on roster for 82gm; played 17 20.7%
    82gm 9G 20P; .110 GPG .244 PPG
    Draisatl on roster 82gm; 82gm played 100%
    82gm 29G 77P; .354 GPG .939 GPG

    2 seasosn total
    Stamkos 164gm on roster; 94gm played 57.3%
    164gm 45G 84P; .274 GPG; .512 PPG
    Draisatl 154gm on roster; 154 games played 100%
    154gm 48G 128P; .312 GPG .831 PPG

    when a top 3 Forward is not playing they are replaced by a #13, 14 or AHL forward!

    I would like to say that Stamkos is a really poor example of Draisatl’s measure.

  111. McNuge93 says:

    Lowetide: Subban. They bridged him and then seemed unhappy at losing the bet. That possibility, in my opinion, meant signing for 8 years was always the preferred path.

    And Ryan O’ Reilly sort of. Jacob Trouba probably next.

  112. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: Where are you getting this 2020 number?

    In any case Stamkos, with five seasons at a pt/gm or better to Draisatl’s zero, signed as a free agent for 8.5 million.

    Stamkos is a $10m player if he is signing a contract today. Let’s not pretend that a contract from 2 years ago is the same as today.

  113. jtblack says:

    Love the deal. Drai brings so much to the team. I am on board with paying guys well that ARE IN their prime. We are getting the best 8 years of McD and Drai. By the comments you would think this is Bobby Holik 2.0. Embrace the Winning ON!

  114. Pink Socks says:

    You would think we just signed Jagr to an 8 year deal with some of the comments. The Oilers have 2 top 10 forwards in the world locked up for 8 years and there are complaints? $8.5, yeah I think 250-500k too much, but what does it matter? Is that 250k going to be the difference between RNH leaving and staying? No, because he (or a combination of others) are going to be gone regardless. It’s the cost of doing business and being blessed to have a 97/29 one two punch up front.

  115. Side says:

    Willing to bet Leon will be the next player the fans run out of town.

    I can only imagine how people will feel if he puts up only 50 or 60 points centreing his own line for a season with that contract.

  116. theDjdj says:

    Cassandra: This is an unnecessary contract if he is an 80 point player on his own line.

    To evaluate this contract you have to begin with an appropriate heuristic based on the RFA status.

    1) With an RFA contract it is almost impossible to overpay a player in comparison to an UFA contract.Thus in absolute terms in terms of the cost of replacing Draisatl on the UFA market Draisatl should provide value at this number.

    2) But measuring the value in those terms neglects the RFA status, that is the Oilers should be expected to beat UFA market value here, otherwise they are losing value relative to the rest of the league who gets discounts on their RFA players.

    3) Given that this is the largest contract of its kind outside of McDavid, this means that Draisatl has to be pretty much the best player in the league other than McDavid for this deal to break even.

    4) Therefore there is no upside to this deal.The Oilers have taken 99% of the risk.

    Defenders of the deal are evaluating it as an UFA deal, and by that measure it would be fine.But it isn’t an UFA deal.It isn’t even a nearing UFA deal like Kuznetsov or Johansen.It is a straight out of ELC deal and should be evaluated as such.

    I like this way of thinking. Looking at players as assets and markets. It’s a good evaluation except it doesn’t account for one crucial component: scarcity.

    Your supposition is that a replacement level UFA would be freely available. And thus we’ve lost value on the deal. The truth is these type of players very rarely come to market.

  117. Professor Q says:

    Pink Socks:
    You would think we just signed Jagr to an 8 year deal with some of the comments.The Oilers have 2 top 10 forwards in the world locked up for 8 years and there are complaints?$8.5, yeah I think 250-500k too much, but what does it matter?Is that 250k going to be the difference between RNH leaving and staying? No, because he (or a combination of others) are going to be gone regardless.It’s the cost of doing business and being blessed to have a 97/29 one two punch up front.

    Speaking of which, now that Draisaitl is settled, can we now shift focus to said signing of Jagr?

  118. Georges says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Given that so much of the discussion on this contract value is likely to center around the viability of forecasting Leon as a ‘river pusher,’ is it fair to ask for a common definition of that term?

    First, is winning the corsi battle against tough comps enough, or does the player need to be a legitimate outscorer as well (i.e. not enough to generate shots, you’ve got to produce points in excess of the opposition).

    In terms of OPPs, do ‘river pushers’ have to do it against the very best, or is 2nd toughest comp sufficient for the definition?

    OR is this purely a WOWY expression with the additional layer context in terms of production or opps down to what the interpreter prefers for contextual preference?

    I think the Opposition question is particularly important in terms of the context because I very much see a situation where McDavid and RNH will be fed the toughest opps at home with the expectation on Drai that he feast on those soft minutes. I could see him posting elite production doing this but being criticized for not being a ‘river pusher’ as a result.

    Appreciate any clarity that can be provided on expectations surrounding this term.

    1. You have to outscore. A goal differential of 3 is worth about 1 extra point in the standings. Your possession numbers shouldn’t be so bad that it looks like you’re playing in front of unreal goaltending. If you’re playing in front of unreal goaltending, you have to outscore by a lot.

    2. You have to outscore whoever you play against. So outscore in total. Comp takes care of itself.

    3. Your without you’s can’t tank away from any one player for a significant amount of TOI.

    (4). Your results in the playoffs shouldn’t be drastically different from your results in the regular season.

  119. Lowetide says:

    Oilers8833: Nuge was getting traded whether the contract was 7.5 or 8.5. Writting was on the wall as soon as Leon had the year he did.

    You could still do it. Not signing Maroon or Strome after the season means Nuge could stay, you would need Tyler Benson to step up (or other). I don’t see it happening though.

  120. Pink Socks says:

    Lowetide: Subban. They bridged him and then seemed unhappy at losing the bet. That possibility, in my opinion, meant signing for 8 years was always the preferred path.

    This is the best point. Year 1 of his 2 year bridge he wins a Norris. Bergeron shits himself and cries because he realizes what he did. If he gives PK an 8 year pact prior to the brige, he gets him for what, $6m? At that time (2012/13) that would have been a massive contract. So by signing the bridge the Habs cost themselves ~$3m over the course of 6 seasons of Subban’s prime years. The reason why the NHL is seemingly moving to this model of ELC to big deal is because it’s worth the risk.

    So then, group question, what do you prefer?

    Draisaitl – 2 years @ $5.5m
    Draisaitl – 8 years @ $8.5m

    If Drai finishes top 10 in scoring, helps the team to two more successful playoff runs, maybe wins an NHL award, in 2 years his next contract is going to be 8x$10-$12m. PC made the right call on this one, no doubt.

  121. russ99 says:

    YKOil:
    All the risk on the Oilers.Oilers seem to pump everyone’s f&*king tires come their contract year.From Stoll to Gagner to the Austins to Drai, and those players NEVER seem to give back to the team.Oilers have to stop doing this, just kills the team long term.

    Next year: Cap $75.0-77.5million / Salary $60.7 / Players 13

    So ~ $14.3 – $16.3 million to sign 10-11 players

    That 10-11 players includes:

    — Nurse, Benning, Slepyshev, Caggiula and Strome as RFA’s
    — Letestu and Maroon as UFA’s

    More than Nuge will be gone next year.As every GM worth his salt will know this do not expect a good return for Nuge.

    That is worth repeating: More than Nuge will be gone next year.As every GM worth his salt will know this do not expect a good return for Nuge.

    So, short of huge jumps in performance from Benson, Yamamoto and Puljujarvi this team could easily be worse next year than this year as Nuge (for scraps), Letestu and probably Maroon will be gone,

    Awesome.

    The writing is on the wall for Nuge whatever the AAV, and we all knew we’d be at the cap next July.

    I personally like the idea of many young to-be RFA. Chia is in a sense saying show me that you belong here.

    Worst case we lose a player we can’t afford, but all teams at the cap deal with that, and Chia’s track record shows that he can plug in a cheap FA veteran or a kid on an ELC to replace them.

  122. Pink Socks says:

    Professor Q: Speaking of which, now that Draisaitl is settled, can we now shift focus to said signing of Jagr?

    That would be fantastic.

  123. godot10 says:

    Professor Q:
    godot10,

    They absolutely were bridged. 5 year deals as opposed to 8 or more, like what Ovechkin got (although Ovechkin had the advantage of signing his after Crosby did).

    Yes, different era and there were no 8 year limits, but still. Relatively Crosby could have asked for a contract as long as Ovechkin’s.

    A five year deal which consumes all the RFA years and 1 UFA year after the entry level is NOT a bridge deal. A five year contract where the player becomes a UFA at the end is NOT a bridge deal.

    A bridge deal is a two or three year deal after the entry level contract which leaves one or two RFA years when it expires.

  124. LMHF#1 says:

    jtblack:
    LMHF#1,

    Who is Speedy Turtle?He is Money

    Can’t say that I know who they are. Don’t care much with all the accurate intel.

  125. Side says:

    Pink Socks: This is the best point.Year 1 of his 2 year bridge he wins a Norris.Bergeron shits himself and cries because he realizes what he did.If he gives PK an 8 year pact prior to the brige, he gets him for what, $6m?At that time (2012/13) that would have been a massive contract.So by signing the bridge the Habs cost themselves ~$3m over the course of 6 seasons of Subban’s prime years.The reason why the NHL is seemingly moving to this model of ELC to big deal is because it’s worth the risk.

    So then, group question, what do you prefer?

    Draisaitl – 2 years @ $5.5m
    Draisaitl – 8 years @ $8.5m

    If Drai finishes top 10 in scoring, helps the team to two more successful playoff runs, maybe wins an NHL award, in 2 years his next contract is going to be 8x$10-$12m. PC made the right call on this one, no doubt.

    What if in the next 2 years Drai puts up 50-60 points on his own line without a Hall or McDavid on it?

  126. Pink Socks says:

    LMHF#1: Can’t say that I know who they are. Don’t care much with all the accurate intel.

    My bet… Kevin Lowe.

  127. pocession charge says:

    Definitely an overpay. Chia is not the greatest negotiator.

    Love the player, though. Can’t imagine losing him.

  128. frjohnk says:

    Side: What if in the next 2 years Drai puts up 50-60 points on his own line without a Hall or McDavid on it?

    Draisaitl is getting paid like an elite, elite center.

    Tied with Stamkos for 9th highest AAV for all players.

    He has to put up elite numbers without McDavid.

    Has to.

  129. godot10 says:

    Side: What if in the next 2 years Drai puts up 50-60 points on his own line without a Hall or McDavid on it?

    What if McDavid doesn’t break 90 points without Draisaitl on his wing?

  130. pocession charge says:

    godot10: I did a comparison of a whole host of what other centres received in the 8 years after their ELC as a percentage of the cap about a month ago on Lowetide.

    Just over 11% of the cap was pretty much the midpoint.

    A bridge contract would be a false saving, since the AAV of the subsequent contract would be prohibitive.Draisaitl will be the last centre of his quality that will be locked up for less than $10 million AAV.

    There is a great benefit in cost certainty for McDavid and Draisaitl for the next eight years planning wise.

    Aside:Crosby and Malkin were not bridged.

    If one is certain that a player is part of your core, it makes no sense to bridge him UNLESS on is already cap constrained. (i.e. Tampa).

    The comps that you used were all bogus.

  131. Thinker says:

    Pink Socks:
    You would think we just signed Jagr to an 8 year deal with some of the comments.The Oilers have 2 top 10 forwards in the world locked up for 8 years and there are complaints?$8.5, yeah I think 250-500k too much, but what does it matter?Is that 250k going to be the difference between RNH leaving and staying? No, because he (or a combination of others) are going to be gone regardless.It’s the cost of doing business and being blessed to have a 97/29 one two punch up front.

    There was a time when we thought the same of eberle. Draisaitl is a great player, and the socialist cap system hinders him. If it were a free market, he could make 20million and be worth it. Problem is, we are probably buying high, and this may hurt in 3 years.

  132. McSorley33 says:

    frjohnk,

    Draisaitl is getting paid like an elite, elite center.
    Tied with Stamkos for 9th highest AAV for all players.
    He has to put up elite numbers without McDavid.
    Has to.
    ******************************************************************
    x 10000000000000000000000000000000

    This officially puts to rest any notion of Drai playing wing.

  133. Side says:

    godot10: What if McDavid doesn’t break 90 points without Draisaitl on his wing?

    In one and a half seasons, McDavid has put up over a ppg no matter who is on his wing. He has done this for the most part as #1 centre and I think it’s safe to say, any fan and any coach or GM in the league would gladly have him as their #1, even if he does put up only 90 points at $12.5 million.

    Drai has not proven he can centre a line for a whole season. He struggled in his first season and was sent down. When he came back, he was paired with river pushers for the most part.

    I’m willing to bet between the 2 players, Drai is likely to have a dip in production. I don’t think that’s an outlandish prediction, either.

    A lot of people here seem convinced that $8.5 million for Drai means he is guaranteed to increase his production and will be a steal of a deal. Again, what if Drai can’t put up more than 77 points on his own line?

    Are people going to be happy with a #2 centre putting up less than 77 points a season for $8.5 million?

  134. McSorley33 says:

    Just took a look at Woodugy’s twitter….where he posted Drai’s WOWY’s -McDavid….

    This is a large bet on Leon.

  135. frjohnk says:

    Id rather “overpay” a bit for a guy like Draisaitl for the hope of future performance than overpay for past performance ( most UFA players)

    The issue I have is that Its too bad we didn’t have more of our young players locked up long term to value contracts ( Klefbom and Larsson) before the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts.

    If McDavid and Draisaitl center their own lines and both knock it out of park ( which I’m not betting against) it probably also means that 3 of our RFA’s forwards for next year ( Strome, Drake, Sleppy) and most likely our UFA ( Maroon) have had very good at bats at well and will want to get paid.

    Nurse and Benning are also RFA’s.

  136. fifthcartel says:

    It’s not a great contract, but it’s better overpaying a Draisaitl than a Russell.

    The $8.5m is tough to stomach. Ryan Johansen with 1 year left of RFA services got 8×8, so Nashville is paying 8m for 1 RFA year and 7 UFA years.

    Draisaitl had RFA years left due to his rookie year. His 77 points this year is 6 higher than Johansen’s career high (Leon was 20, RyJo was 22), but I take Johansen’s season because he played C full time and in Columbus. The Oilers are paying him $8.5m for 5 RFA years and 3 UFA years.

    I think Draisaitl’s a fantastic player, and his contract situation due to his rookie year complicated things, but I think they probably should have gotten him for much less. Especially given the gravy time with 97 at ES and on the PP. If he did this while playing C full time, I’d have no problem with it.

    I don’t know how you sign the Russell deal if you think Draisaitl is coming in around ~8.5.

  137. frjohnk says:

    McSorley33:
    frjohnk,

    Draisaitl is getting paid like an elite, elite center.
    Tied with Stamkos for 9th highest AAV for all players.
    He has to put up elite numbers without McDavid.
    Has to.
    ******************************************************************
    x $8,500,000

    This officially puts to rest any notion of Drai playing wing.

    FTFY

  138. Jordan says:

    So… forgive me, but I’m confused.

    I’ve been eyeballing the Oilers’ salary structure for a while now, and… I don’t see a salary crunch.

    Next year, the Oilers have Fayne’s 3.7M and Korpse’s 1M coming off the books. That money should be able to bridge both Nurse and Benning, which takes care of the Defense for the next few years, if you can get them both done for a combined cap hit of 6 M.

    Beyond that, you have 7 complementary forwards and 1 backup goalie to sign with 8M to sign them, or get replacements with. And once again, this presumes the cap is flat, and the NHLPA chooses not to use the escalator (which has never happened – they’ve always used it).

    And this is all without trading Nuge.

    Anyone who thinks the sky is falling now, or into the future is looking for something to complain about.

    The Oilers are in pretty good shape, especially if they can eliminate as many bonuses in contracts as they can, to protect themselves from overages.

    Unless you want to freak out about Talbot’s extension in 2019. =O Then go nuts. XD

  139. commonfan29 says:

    Whenever I’m mad about the Oilers paying full price or more on a contract, I have to remind myself about a story I once heard Jay Mohr tell about Bill Guerin.

    The two were apparently hanging out at a bar once while Guerin was in the midst of a contract negotiation with the Oilers, and Mohr was aware that they were at a bit of an impasse over $800,000.

    Mohr asked him why he was playing hard ball over 800K when he liked and was thriving with the team.

    A somewhat tipsy Guerin then grabbed him by the collar and yelled, “JJ, you ever been to Edmonton in the winter? That’s an $800,000 winter!”

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I think the only worryis that he plateaus, and that has happened in hockey history (a player his age reaches his outer marker). I felt, as the negotiations lingers, we were looking at about $8.25 million, so this isn’t a massive gap. 97 turned back $750,000 iirc, looks like those dollars went to 29.

    I agree – I don’t see a regression to a 50-60 point player.

    He has shown he can drive a line in small sample sizes. Doing so in the playoffs against the Ducks is a material achievement.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cassandra: Honest question.What counts as exceeding the contract?Elite players get paid 8.5 million for their UFA deals.

    Given that Draisatl is coming out of his ELC deal, this means that Draisatl has to be better than elite to justify this contract.

    Given their ages on those UFA deals, and the fact that prime years for forwards are now 22-27 not 28-32 like the past, the chances of regression during the term of those UFA deals is material.

    This contract will be almost entirely made up of prime years.

  142. frjohnk says:

    Jordan:
    So… forgive me, but I’m confused.

    I’ve been eyeballing the Oilers’ salary structure for a while now, and… I don’t see a salary crunch.

    Next year, the Oilers have Fayne’s 3.7M and Korpse’s 1M coming off the books.That money should be able to bridge both Nurse and Benning, which takes care of the Defense for the next few years, if you can get them both done for a combined cap hit of 6 M.

    Beyond that, you have 7 complementary forwards and 1 backup goalie to sign with 8M to sign them, or get replacements with.And once again, this presumes the cap is flat, and the NHLPA chooses not to use the escalator (which has never happened – they’ve always used it).

    And this is all without trading Nuge.

    Anyone who thinks the sky is falling now, or into the future is looking for something to complain about.

    The Oilers are in pretty good shape, especially if they can eliminate as many bonuses in contracts as they can, to protect themselves from overages.

    Unless you want to freak out about Talbot’s extension in 2019.=O Then go nuts.XD

    For 18-19

    McDavid 12.5
    Draisaitl 8.5
    Lucic 6
    RNH 6
    Kassian 1.9
    Khaira 0.675
    JP 0.925

    Sekera 5.5
    Klefbom 4.1
    Larsson 4.1
    Russell 4
    Gryba 0.9

    Talbot 4.1

    Total for these 13 players is 59.2. For ease of calculation lets say JP’s bonus money brings it to $62M.
    For more easiness into my calculator, lets say the salary cap jumps up to $80M.

    We have $18M left over to sign 10 players

    -RFA’s
    Strome
    Drake
    Sleppy
    Pak
    Nurse
    Benning
    Broissant

    -UFA’s
    Maroon
    Letestu
    Jokinen

    Cap hell is coming.

    -RNH is a goner for sure and most likely one of Strome/Maroon.

    -One of Nurse/Benning could be gone.

    -Maybe the Oilers ask Lucic/Sekera/Russell to waive NMC, but I doubt it.

    EDIT: Oops, forgot about Pouliot buyout.
    Add $1.3M per year till the end of 2020-21

    So we would have 16.7M leftover to sign those 10 players/roster spots.

  143. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Subban. They bridged him and then seemed unhappy at losing the bet. That possibility, in my opinion, meant signing for 8 years was always the preferred path.

    Subban wasn’t dealt during his bridge and there were numerous documented locker room issues. I’m satisfied that there was enough time between contracts to say that signing a bridge was nothing to do with him being dealt. I mean, you sign him to a bridge, he does really well and gets paid. They proved the on ice product and it worked like it should. If the contract was the problem, then lets look at the one they took back…..

    . Ryan Johansen, maybe?

  144. godot10 says:

    pocession charge: The comps that you used were all bogus.

    Chiarelli and Liut didn’t seem to think so. They ended up exactly where that analysis said they would.

  145. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree – I don’t see a regression to a 50-60 point player.

    At the moment, we have no idea if 77pts is his top end, an extreme outlier or what he’ll put up consistently, or indeed him just getting started on something special. All we have is indications on a small sample size.

    Three out of the four of the above criteria are not worth $8.5M x 8yrs.

  146. Cassandra says:

    OriginalPouzar: Given their ages on those UFA deals, and the fact that prime years for forwards are now 22-27 not 28-32 like the past, the chances of regression during the term of those UFA deals is material.

    This contract will be almost entirely made up of prime years.

    I don’t think you are understanding the point. Of course this contract should present good value in comparison to an UFA contract. I would rather have this contract than what Tavares is likely to sign, for example. That is not what is in dispute.

    What is in dispute is how much the Oilers are saving by taking the depreciation risk? If Draisatl continues as he has, what kind of contract would he get? Godot, who thinks this deal is fair, thinks it is in the 10-12 million range. I think that is absurd, but even if it isn’t, there should be a price for the non-zero risk of injury and/or depreciation for what Draisatl will be five years from now in his hypothetical UFA years.

    With this contract, Draisatl gives up little or no future money if he plays as expected, and takes no risk if he doesn’t.

  147. godot10 says:

    Side: In one and a half seasons, McDavid has put up over a ppg no matter who is on his wing. He has done this for the most part as #1 centre and I think it’s safe to say, any fan and any coach or GM in the league would gladly have him as their #1, even if he does put up only 90 points at $12.5 million.

    Drai has not proven he can centre a line for a whole season. He struggled in his first season and was sent down. When he came back, he was paired with river pushers for the most part.

    I’m willing to bet between the 2 players, Drai is likely to have a dip in production. I don’t think that’s an outlandish prediction, either.

    A lot of people here seem convinced that $8.5 million for Drai means he is guaranteed to increase his production and will be a steal of a deal.Again, what if Drai can’t put up more than 77 points on his own line?

    Are people going to be happy with a #2 centre putting up less than 77 points a season for $8.5 million?

    68 points for $8.5 million is equivalent in points per dollar to 100 points for $12.5 million.

  148. Georges says:

    OriginalPouzar: Given their ages on those UFA deals, and the fact that prime years for forwards are now 22-27 not 28-32 like the past, the chances of regression during the term of those UFA deals is material.

    This contract will be almost entirely made up of prime years.

    Kopitar will be paid $10M a year for the least productive years of his career.

    Drai will be paid $8.5M a year for the most productive years of his career.

    It’s a bet. Saying he didn’t score away from Hall and CMD is different from saying he won’t score away from them. Drai’s a really competitive (and talented enough) kid. He wanted this contract because he felt he deserved this contract. He wants to be among the best. No question. Negotiations are done. I’m not betting against him.

    One other nice thing about the signing is that it basically ends the possibility of our team overpaying for fancy UFA years for the next bit.

  149. Pink Socks says:

    Thinker: There was a time when we thought the same of eberle. Draisaitl is a great player, and the socialist cap system hinders him. If it were a free market, he could make 20million and be worth it. Problem is, we are probably buying high, and this may hurt in 3 years.

    Fair enough, you’re on point with the socialist cap, but at the time, Eberle 10% of cap, Draisaitl 11%.

    So, in today’s terms, I take Drai at $8.5m over Eberle at $7.5m.

  150. Doug McLachlan says:

    Jordan,

    The crunch is that you have about $14M to pay 10 players, as per CapFriendly https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers

    This assumes no trades that affect salary, does not include any performance bonuses but also doesn’t include any jump in the Cap (at a minimum I would expect the NHLPA to press the escalator button the full 5% with no new expansion team coming).

    5% of $75M is $3.75M so let’s put the cap at $78.75M and our Cap space to $17.75M.

    (This assumes also that Vegas jersey sales, Canadian dollar, and other HRR sources – say an extended Leafs playoff run – don’t change the Cap. I tend to be bullish that we may see marginal increases to the Cap based on all three factors but let’s proceed assuming that we don’t.)

    It’s tight but I agree that it could be managed.

    Expect Maroon to leave and not resign (I’d expect him to go to his son in St. Louis and have no issue with that – perhaps Chia deals him at the deadline).

    Nurse and Benning will need new deals. Let’s say that they average $3M per, that eats up $6M of our cushion and we are down to $11.75M. Personally I think that’s high but with Sekera gone probably shoot the lights out. I can deal with that.

    That makes for a very pricy d and will probably prompt a trade but while cap relief will be a benefit, it needn’t force the issue.

    If Letestu, Jokinen and Maroon are filled with UFAs at comparable cost that’s another $4.5M. (Not sure we can replace Maroon or Letestu’s value to the team at that price but you try). We are now down to $7.25M.

    The RFAs up front, Strome and Caggiula will likely expect a raise but I don’t think they break the bank. Let’s put Strome at $3M and Caggiula at $2M. Down to a $2.25M.

    We still haven’t spoken about Pak or LB. Don’t see either getting more than what they are currently taking. Like Gryba, probably looking at the same numbers. Let’s say $1.5M for the pair and you have a cushion of $.75M. It can be managed but you are now tempting the gods as per bonuses. Creative accounting and players back and forth to Bakersfield.

    The simply fix is to move the last Austin, Nuge, as he doesn’t have a NMC but if you can make it work without doing so – boy I’d love to see those Unicorns.

  151. Whatif says:

    Have read all the comments.

    I find the general reaction somewhat surprising.

    Draisaitl is a very good player and it is reasonable to expect he will get better during the term of this contract.

    Why is everybody complaining. We have two of the best centres in the NHL locked up for 8 years of their respective primes.

    I certainly hope they can both perform at an elite level playing on separate lines.

    What is great is that if the Oilers have to really load up due to a game situation (ala Crosby/Malkin), we know that they have excellent chemistry together.

    On such a significant day I cannot understand the Oiler fan tendency to see nothing but black clouds.

    Enjoy. Be happy. Celebrate the formation of a great Oiler core.

  152. Pink Socks says:

    Jordan:
    So… forgive me, but I’m confused.

    I’ve been eyeballing the Oilers’ salary structure for a while now, and… I don’t see a salary crunch.

    Next year, the Oilers have Fayne’s 3.7M and Korpse’s 1M coming off the books.That money should be able to bridge both Nurse and Benning, which takes care of the Defense for the next few years, if you can get them both done for a combined cap hit of 6 M.

    Beyond that, you have 7 complementary forwards and 1 backup goalie to sign with 8M to sign them, or get replacements with.And once again, this presumes the cap is flat, and the NHLPA chooses not to use the escalator (which has never happened – they’ve always used it).

    And this is all without trading Nuge.

    Anyone who thinks the sky is falling now, or into the future is looking for something to complain about.

    The Oilers are in pretty good shape, especially if they can eliminate as many bonuses in contracts as they can, to protect themselves from overages.

    Unless you want to freak out about Talbot’s extension in 2019.=O Then go nuts.XD

    Only~$1m is saved on Fayne, so $2.6m off the books next year. But you’re right, it’s Talbot that is the growing concern. Maybe Skinner / Wells becomes Matt Murray 2.0?

  153. Pink Socks says:

    Whatif:
    Have read all the comments.

    I find the general reaction somewhat surprising.

    Draisaitl is a very good player and it is reasonable to expect he will get better during the term of this contract.

    Why is everybody complaining. We have two of the best centres in the NHL locked up for 8 years of their respective primes.

    I certainly hope they can both perform at an elite level playing on separate lines.

    What is great is that if the Oilers have to really load up due to a game situation (ala Crosby/Malkin), we know that they have excellent chemistry together.

    On such a significant day I cannot understand the Oiler fan tendency to see nothing but black clouds.

    Enjoy. Be happy. Celebrate the formation of a great Oiler core.

    +1

    Actually + 8,500,000

  154. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull: Subban wasn’t dealt during his bridge and there were numerous documented locker room issues.I’m satisfied that there was enough time between contracts to say that signing a bridge was nothing to do with him being dealt.I mean, you sign him to a bridge, he does really well and gets paid.They proved the on ice product and it worked like it should.If the contract was the problem, then lets look at the one they took back…..

    .Ryan Johansen, maybe?

    I stand by the Subban comp. Montreal kicked the problem down the road and then didn’t like the result. When you are dealing with high end talent, go long. The issue with Leon (for me) is that he is not yet proven against elites.

  155. pocession charge says:

    godot10: Chiarelli and Liut didn’t seem to think so.They ended up exactly where that analysis said they would.

    The contract is not an accurate reflection of your analysis, rather a condemnation of Chiarelli’s negotiating skills. All his comparables were $1-2M less. The Oilers had the leverage with the RFA status. They did not take advantage of that leverage.

    At $8.5M long term, they should have went with a bridge deal.

  156. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    This is at the top end of the fair value range we predicted based on Tarasenko as a comp plus inflation plus position premium for C vs wing. That predicted 8.25-8.5m per for 8.

    The problem here we also called back in February: moving 29 next to 97 was going to be paying the piper: paying for 1RW production in full instead of playing him at 2C and paying for that.

    TMc played to win but cost the team money down the line with that choice. I probably would have done the same in his shoes even while sitting here from far away warning about this.

    I disagree that the playoffs added 1.5m. I think the ask was always going to be that. What it did do was give PC more confidence that he could deliver on that bet.

    I agree that the problem is not paying your elite guys fair value. It’s overpaying complementary players that kills you. Lucic, Russell, next summer a warning about Maroon.

    Unless some other moves are made as well this deal makes Chia’s hand weaker if he deals Nuge next summer. The world knows he needs a cheaper 3C. Cue the next Eberle for Strome type value erosion deal. Unless Chia gets really creative but I don’t see how at this time.

  157. Zack says:

    The Draisiatl contract is a monster but at the same time it’s nice to know we have McDavid/Draisaitl locked up for the next 8 years. I just hope Draisaitl can continue to put up these numbers. Like Lowetide mentioned he isn’t exactly “proven” yet. Still very young. However if he puts up 80+ pts I doubt people will complain.

    Maroon – McDavid – Nuge
    Lucic – Draisaitl – Slepy
    Jokinen – Strome – Puljujarvi
    Caguila – Letestu – Kassian

    Not a bad line up, not a bad line up at all. Get Nuge to rack up some points and then we could probably send him out for a less expensive option. Or keep him for solid run and have a very strong two-way centre for back up in case of injury.

  158. Pink Socks says:

    pocession charge: The contract is not an accurate reflection of your analysis, rather a condemnation of Chiarelli’s negotiating skills.All his comparables were $1-2M less.The Oilers had the leverage with the RFA status. They did not take advantage of that leverage.

    At $8.5M long term, they should have went with a bridge deal.

    A bridge deal for $6m and then have to pay him $10-$12m in 2 years? That would be a lot of egg on PC’s face.

  159. Pink Socks says:

    pocession charge: The contract is not an accurate reflection of your analysis, rather a condemnation of Chiarelli’s negotiating skills.All his comparables were $1-2M less.The Oilers had the leverage with the RFA status. They did not take advantage of that leverage.

    At $8.5M long term, they should have went with a bridge deal.

    Also, Tarasenko is his closest comp, I think thats fair. He got $7.5m, 2 years ago, after putting up 73 pts in 77 games when the cap was at $71.4m.

    This is in line, upper level sure, but still a fair contract.

  160. Pink Socks says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    This is at the top end of the fair value range we predicted based on Tarasenko as a comp plus inflation plus position premium for C vs wing. That predicted 8.25-8.5m per for 8.

    The problem here we also called back in February: moving 29 next to 97 was going to be paying the piper: paying for 1RW production in full instead of playing him at 2C and paying for that.

    TMc played to win but cost the team money down the line with that choice. I probably would have done the same in his shoes even while sitting here from far away warning about this.

    I disagree that the playoffs added 1.5m. I think the ask was always going to be that. What it did do was give PC more confidence that he could deliver on that bet.

    I agree that the problem is not paying your elite guys fair value. It’s overpaying complementary players that kills you. Lucic, Russell, next summer a warning about Maroon.

    Unless some other moves are made as well this deal makes Chia’s hand weaker if he deals Nuge next summer. The world knows he needs a cheaper 3C. Cue the next Eberle for Strome type value erosion deal.Unless Chia gets really creative but I don’t see how at this time.

    The comp to Tarasenko is on point. Very good comparable, Tarasenko out of ELC 10.5% of cap, Draisaitl 11.3%, Wing vs Center, the contract is a good value though we all wish it was a bit less.

  161. blainer says:

    LT,

    You are 100% correct with Drai picking up the $750 K Connor left on the table IMO. I would not even be surprised if Connor spoke to Chia and said pay him the money you saved on me and get er done.

    My initial reaction was F**k that is too much but as I kept reading the thread I have become more comfortable with it.

    Most of knew during the playoffs and I remember us even posting it here during those games that we were gonna end up paying for Drai’s playoff run.

    Well here we are and now we know.

    Playoff scoring and especially going up against Getzlaf and coming out looking as good or better in an RFA year … well that makes me feel a lot better about the contract.

    If the playoff Drai is what we are getting going forward this will be a fair contract.

  162. NF Oiler says:

    Don’t think it’s as bad of contract as people think , he is only gotta get better being only 21..and not just offensively..defence and face offs also will improve and he will become even more dominate..kopitar makes 10 mil a season , vorecek 8.25, Johanson 8.0, Benn 9.5, kuznetzov 7.7..I would argue he is or will be better then all of them..I even think he will have more value then a 30 year old teows (10 million).. within the next few years Matthews, laine, eichel, seguin, couture, kucherov will all be signing deals greater then drai, making the deal even better ..big strong talented centres are not easy to find, you have to pay a premium for them

  163. BONE207 says:

    So for the upcoming season, does Draisatl pay for Connor’s drinks when they go out since Leon is getting his money this year?

    The overpay is minimal and was close to expectations anyway. The boys need to stay healthy and earn it now. Advance further into the playoffs especially into the SCF & we’ll all be pretty happy about these contracts. Almost as happy as the players.

  164. hags9k says:

    “Fucksakes, how much? WAY too much, he’s not worth that. That’s pure crazy.”

    -said me upon hearing about any and every pro contract signing in any sport since about 1990.

    So I guess I’ll have to live with this one too.

    GO Leon!! Fill the net kid.

  165. HT Joe says:

    I was a bit concerned by the number when I first heard it, but after just 20 minutes of reading comments, it’s not as though this contract is going to hold the Oilers back (there are other contracts to glare and grumble about).

    I do feel safe saying this… I bet Drai puts up more points than Toews does over the next 6 years (remainder of Toews’s contract).

    (*I ALSO bet McDavid puts up more points than Kane over the same period*)

    Cheering like hell for the young man!

  166. striatic says:

    Cassandra: Honest question. What counts as exceeding the contract? Elite players get paid 8.5 million for their UFA deals.

    To outperform his contract by a significant margin, Drai needs to play at cup winning Toews/Kopitar levels.

    That’s a massive ask and a big risk. I wouldn’t have bet on it but I’m extremely risk adverse. It’s a gamble made by a gambler. A swing for the fences in order to secure the longest championship window possible assuming the player matches the bet.

    But it isn’t like, say, the Lucic contract. A signing where we knew that Lucic was going to at best make his 7 million dollar contract only look like a small overpay for the resulting performance instead of a massive one.

  167. bobinyvr says:

    Absolutely thrilled Drai has signed for 8 years.

    Contract? Overpay? consider these notions:

    Track record?
    – 1st year in NHL .. played a lot with Yak, who wasn’t even qualified by St. Louis this year
    – 1st year, sent down to junior .. Wins MVP of WHL playoffs and MVP of Memorial Cup

    – 2nd year .. called up from AHL and finds instant chemistry with 1st overall pick Hall
    – 2nd year .. puts up lots of points with Hall .. & Teddy Purcell .. who doesn’t have a contract for this coming year

    – 3rd year .. outperforms 6 million dollar men Lucic and Ebs on the wing with McDavid
    – 3rd year .. outperforms RNH and McDavid in FO% (49.0%, 43.8, 43.2)
    – 3rd year .. outperforms McDavid in points in playoffs
    – 3rd year .. top ten in NHL scoring

    Uh yes, we don’t know who Leon will become, but we do know just how good he has been.

    I say we should just rejoice that McDavid and Drai want to be here for eight years. I can’t imagine two better players to bet the farm (salary cap) on than these two.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    Of course the GM and coach speak about acquisitions, visions for the team moving forward as well as for individual players. Of course, the GM has the last word on who is on the roster and who is sent down (obviously in consultation with the coach).

    With that said, as far as game to game and in-game deployment of players, that must be the coach, 100%.

    I’m sure both Coach Todd and GM Chiarelli are on the same page with the long-term view of Leon as a center, however, if the coach believes that putting Leon at wing at any point (and for any length of time), this year, next year, the year after, gives him the best chance to win hockey games, that is where Leon will play.

    PC sees Strome as a center, he’s been express on that. If McLellan wants to run McDavid, Leon and Nuge at C and Strome on RW, he will absolutely do so.

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