THE MAN WHO KNEW INFINITY

And with that, the summer’s business was complete, freeing us to argue over lines, pairings and where they’re going to fly Nuge’s horses. Being an Oilers fan means never having to watch anyone play for the home team for an entire career. Before we proceed, let’s review the summer list and the solutions arrived. (Cover photo by Rob Ferguson).

PETER CHIARELLI’S SUMMER LIST

  1. Finalize long term deal for Connor McDavid. This is JOB ONE. McDavid’s $12.5 million times eight contract represents a massive victory for the organization and the general manager. There is a large group of Oilers fans who can’t bring themselves to credit Peter Chiarelli, so allow me to go ahead and say this was a big damned deal. Music!
  2. Finalize long term deal for Leon Draisaitl. This is JOB TWO.  We discussed this deal all summer, starting at $6.something and then arriving at $7.5 million. In the end, as a group we were thinking eight and the $8.5 million times eight years wasn’t much of a surprise. Reaction has been interesting, I sense everything from happiness to relief to disappointment. If you are inclined to believe a dynasty is slipping away, chances are the extra cash here is one more version of Taps. For the rest of the class, this deal represents a full payment and increases the pressure on the ‘value deal’ portions of the roster.
  3. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future(Griffin Reinhart fits this description.). It was in fact Griffin Reinhart, who may have a more difficult time getting into an expansion lineup than an Oilers group that will miss Andrej Sekera.
  4. Find a second pairing RHD with two-way acumen. This job remains open, with Matt Benning likely to get a full shot at the beginning of 2017-18. I still think we might see something happen in this area, possibly around Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
  5. Find a stopgap measure to replace Andrej Sekera’s minutes. Russell could be the LH portion of the second pairing, otherwise the job could fall to Darnell Nurse of Johann Auvitu.
  6. Find a C-R who can help the offense and mirror Leon. Ideally a first-person shooterRyan Strome is the answer, wonder how long he has been a target or a player of discussion.
  7. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline. (Eberle for Strome cut $3.5 million, the Pouliot buyout added about $2.667 million to the cap room). It appears the Oilers have more than enough room, plus the Sekera LTIR option if it comes to that.

PROJECTED 2017-18 ROSTER (PLUS LINES AND PAIRINGS)

  • The forwards are aligned in a way that matches much of the discussion this summer. I would like to register my vote against Nuge on RW, but if we’re going to showcase RNH then put him with McDavid. It has the added benefit of keeping all of the RFA’s away from McDavid in their contract seasons.
  • Ryan Strome at center becomes important if the plan is to trade the Nuge. I expect he’ll see about 75 percent of his time at center in an audition season. If he can manage to score 20 goals on a designated soft minutes line (with power-play time), Peter Chiarelli can safely deal RNH.
  • We’re going to see the three young wingers (Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev and Drake Caggiula) get full lash at 550 at-bats. I’m always hammering away on this, I believe absolutely you need to give talented kids a full season when they’re ready. Three at a time? That’s a massive ask.
  • Andrej Sekera’s absence means more prominent roles for Matt Benning, Darnell Nurse and possibly Yohann Auvitu. I am bullish about the youngsters, but hope Sekera returns early in case the gales of November come early.

PROJECTED 2018-19 ROSTER

  • This is a first blush at the roster one year from now, assuming a $77 million cap. Nuge has sailed on down the line, allowing Peter Chiarelli to return Patrick Maroon, Drake Caggiula, Ryan Strome, Anton Slepyshev, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning and Yohann Auvitu.
  • We also see the importance of the farm system, as names like Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson and Joe Gambardella probably ascend as early as 2018.

THE DRAISAITL DEAL

I always thought the Tarasenko contract was a reasonable comparable, meaning 7.5 million times eight seasons would be the goal. Inflation (Tarasenko’s deal was signed two years ago) is a factor and I do think the Draisaitl camp won the negotiations.

For me, there’s an opportunity to compare the Draisaitl long-term deal with those of Hall, Nuge and Eberle but all I’m reading is folks once again viewing the deal through their established lens. Too bad. There’s a conversation that can be had about risk/reward and where the Draisaitl deal falls compared to the Austins.

Taylor Hall’s contract is a flat out bargain, massive home run by Steve Tambellini. The Nuge contract looked fine to me at the time and I would sign it again. The Eberle signing came after a 34-goal season and hasn’t looked like a bargain for some time—although I would argue that Jordan Eberle has been a consistent and productive player. The overpay on the Eberle deal isn’t close to being a crime, in my opinion.

Where does Leon’s deal rank? The day after is a tough time to make the call, but my guess is that we look back on this signing as being a good decision. The one major advantage: Draisaitl has Connor McDavid to drive this era and that benefits Peter Chiarelli as well.

FREE MONEY!

Now that the Draisaitl contract is done, I’d estimate there is around $2.5-3 million in walking around money. That should be enough to sign one of Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla or Shane Doan. I don’t see it coming, even though man of the wingers who will play this season lack experience.

I think Jussi Jokinen was the veteran addition and fully endorse the choice of player. I think Peter Chiarelli has correctly identified that the team must find out about the offensive potential of Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev and Drake Caggiula. I do not believe all three men will emerge as viable NHL scoring options. That’s why I keep bringing up Kailer Yamamoto, and why I think Ty Rattie’s agent is a very smart man.

This team is still building. The most obvious example is the depth chart on each wing. We’re going to know a lot more about these kids one year from now and Peter Chiarelli appears locked in on auditioning all three. I can’t be critical, it’s what I always hoped we would see from an Oilers management group. I just wish the candidates had stronger offensive resumes. Perhaps Jesse Puljujarvi is practicing his quick release and perhaps another year older will benefit him greatly.

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185 Responses to "THE MAN WHO KNEW INFINITY"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    PC mentioned yesterday he could add a player or two for a camp tryout.

    I can’t imagine Jagr coming to EDM on a tryout basis.

    What about Iginla or Franson?

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think the two monster contracts elongates the Stanley Cup window but makes adding the final pieces tougher.

    It elongates it because it locks the core up for 6-9 years (including our 1st pairing d-men), however, starting next season it makes it tough to acquire the “final pieces” that puts the team over the top. With that said, as the cap rises over the course of these contracts, they take up a smaller percentage and there is more space available for the finishing piece acquisitions.

  3. Lowetide says:

    OP: It also brings the importance of astute procurement into focus. The 2015 draft needs to stock some of the NHL defense and the 2016 and 2017 drafts need to solve some of the forward issues. Plus we’re not far from Cam Talbot’s next deal.

  4. Cassandra says:

    Given the inflation that supposedly justifies the Draisatl contract, all of those RFA numbers for 8-19 seem low to me.

    If Maroon has another 25 goal season he is getting paid more than 3.5 million. If he doesn’t have another season like that, what has happened to the Oilers.

    If Strome scores 50 points he is getting paid more than 3 million. If he doesn’t . . .

    You can play this game all the way down the line. Having overpaid everyone else all of a sudden we are supposed to expect Chiarelli is going to turn into Yzerman and start convincing people to stay for less than they would get from other teams?

    It’s a trap. If those players play well, I don’t hate that team. But if those players play well the Oilers can’t afford that team. The best case scenario is to spread the icetime around and get 10-15 goals all around the lineup but no one stand out.

    Which means not only is Nuge gone after this year, but one of the pending free agents as well. I’m betting/hoping it is Maroon.

    Finally, unless you value assists and goals equally, Tarasenko is clearly better than Draisatl. However, if you value assists and goals equally, then Eberle is clearly better than Maroon. This is Oiler universe where the standard moves according to what is necessary to defend the team.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    What do you have returning in a Nuge trade?

    I foresee a Brendan Gallagher type return and not re-signing Maroon.

    If Maroon scores a reasonable 23G/48P, do you think he signs for less than $4.5M? This will be his one chance for “big money”

  6. Cassandra says:

    Lowetide,

    The Talbot deal is going to be a killer. And once again, if he plays like the Oilers need him to he is going to get paid, which is going to cost them players. If he doesn’t play like the Oilers need him to, a season goes down the drain.

    Best case scenario is Brossoit turns into a .920 goalie and the Oilers let Talbot go. Neither strike me as particularly likely.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    OP: It also brings the importance of astute procurement into focus. The 2015 draft needs to stock some of the NHL defense and the 2016 and 2017 drafts need to solve some of the forward issues. Plus we’re not far from Cam Talbot’s next deal.

    Absolutely – in two years, we need Nurse/Benning to replace Sekera/Russell and Simpson/Jones/Paigan/Lagesson/Bear to repalce Nurse/Benning.

    Benson playing a full season of hockey is imperative.

    One of the Safin/Rasanen/Maksimov cluster becoming an NHLer would be very helpful as well.

  8. season not played says:

    Like Chiarellis work, a lot.

    Why is Sean Thornton talking about how tough the Oilers are? Awesome.

    Don’t think they need to block young wingers by bringing in a “Jagr”. Not the move a team makes if they are anticipating a salary crunch. Need to establish and maintain the pipeline and that means playing young players.

  9. verite says:

    Its like people on this board never watched hockey games.
    Hall was heartless and gutless, will prove it again in NJ this year.
    Look at what Draisatl did against Anaheim. That performance is why he got paid yesterday.
    Russell remains essential to having the OIlers actually being able to play functional defense. MacLelland knows that. This team would be in disarry without him.
    Too many people want to win specific contract negotiations without ever understanding what the real objective is – win the Stanley Cup this year.
    Remember we all dead in the long run.

  10. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    What do you have returning in a Nuge trade?

    I foresee a Brendan Gallagher type return and not re-signing Maroon.

    If Maroon scores a reasonable 23G/48P, do you think he signs for less than $4.5M? This will be his one chance for “big money”

    Oilers can’t take on much salary in a Nuge trade. I’dsay someone like Teravainen,but for the roster above I moved him out for picks. Which could happen.

  11. frjohnk says:

    Oilers paid full value and maybe some more at the beginning but for me that is fine as Id rather pay a young guy like Draisaitl and bet he gets better year over year than pay a big name UFA because of past performance and watch him get worse year over year

    Some of Draisaitl’s comparables are making anywhere from 500k ( Johansen) to 2.6M ( Barkov) less, which means that for the other part of the roster Chia needs to be more stingy when paying that part of the roster than other GM’s for the same level of production.

    Its too bad we only have Klefbom and Larsson as our only young players signed long term to value deals.

    If McDavid and Draisaitl cover their bets this year away from each other, that means that Maroon, Strome Sleppy, Drake most likely do well and are gonna get paid as well.

    Id love to win the Cup this year. At least we would have gotten 1 Cup before Cap Hell.

  12. leadfarmer says:

    Step 1 Draft star players
    Step 2 Win Stanleys
    Step 3 Cap hell.

    This is the problem. We forgot step 2. We went straight to cap hell without passing go and without collecting 200 and in the process we pretty much ensured a lockout in 2020

  13. Professor Q says:

    leadfarmer:
    Step 1 Draft star players
    Step 2 Win Stanleys
    Step 3 Cap hell.

    This is the problem.We forgot step 2.We went straight to cap hell without passing go and without collecting 200 and in the process we pretty much ensured a lockout in 2020

    Which could end poorly for Edmonton.

    If the Cap goes down during a lockout then the situation would obviously get much worse.

    But there is still time to win a Cup or two before “Cap Hell”, which I don’t think will be as bad as Chicago.

  14. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra:
    Given the inflation that supposedly justifies the Draisatl contract, all of those RFA numbers for 8-19 seem low to me.

    If Maroon has another 25 goal season he is getting paid more than 3.5 million.If he doesn’t have another season like that, what has happened to the Oilers.

    If Strome scores 50 points he is getting paid more than 3 million.If he doesn’t . . .

    You can play this game all the way down the line.Having overpaid everyone else all of a sudden we are supposed to expect Chiarelli is going to turn into Yzerman and start convincing people to stay for less than they would get from other teams?

    It’s a trap.If those players play well, I don’t hate that team.But if those players play well the Oilers can’t afford that team.The best case scenario is to spread the icetime around and get 10-15 goals all around the lineup but no one stand out.

    Which means not only is Nuge gone after this year, but one of the pending free agents as well.I’m betting/hoping it is Maroon.

    Finally, unless you value assists and goals equally, Tarasenko is clearly better than Draisatl.However, if you value assists and goals equally, then Eberle is clearly better than Maroon. This is Oiler universe where the standard moves according to what is necessary to defend the team.

    The same Steve Yzerman that gave Matt Carle $5.5m and is still eating almost $2m in cap room until 2020?

    You are smarter than just comparing points between Tarasenko and Draisaitl to compare actual value to a team.

  15. admiralmark says:

    “The one major advantage: Draisaitl has Connor McDavid to drive this era and that benefits Peter Chiarelli as well.”

    I think I know what you meant there? In so much as McDavid can make Leon look better, that makes Chiarelli look like he made a wise decision. And Leon looks like he deserves all that cake.

    But this management team sorely needs to get caught up to speed on how to handle McDavid zooming everyone and their kitchen sink that plays with him. Assess quickly the players value and sign him to a value contract or trade said player at his peak if you feel the McDavid zoom is the main contributing factor. Leon was the 1st example of this put before Chiarelli and imo opinion he failed at making the astute move early. And instead decided that in his contract year the best move was to leave him unsigned and play the hell out of him with McDavid.. Fail.

    Next up Maroon. You wanna pay him $5 million/yr and dump RNH to make room? Good luck winning any cups with that mindset. I’m willing to give Chiarelli a pass on Leon’s handling. Perhaps they tried and Leon decided to wait? I dont have all the factors involved. But this trend of the team slow at assessing in house talent and paying a premium for play with McDavid will be crippling to the teams ability to challenge for the Cup if it continues.

  16. TO10801 says:

    Professor Q: Which could end poorly for Edmonton.

    If the Cap goes down during a lockout then the situation would obviously get much worse.

    But there is still time to win a Cup or two before “Cap Hell”, which I don’t think will be as bad as Chicago.

    Chicago is in cap hell because they gave Toews and Seabrook massive contracts that will take them pas their prime. The key difference is that we signed our 2 superstars for their prime. The moment we will be susceptible to cap hell will be when Klefbom/Larsson and Talbot need to be resigned. Klef will be going into his 30 yr old season when his contract is up. If you give him a seabrook type deal at that time you are in trouble. Also, Talbot will be going into his 32 year old season so if you give him big money over 5 years you are also in trouble. Staying out of cap hell requires paying for players most productive seasons and not paying them for what they have accomplished in their prime. If there are more Lucic/Russell signings then we can talk about cap hell, but until that happens PC should be able to build a championship roster somewhat similar to that of Pittsburgh.

  17. russ99 says:

    Not worried about Talbot. We have two seasons before then and a lot can happen, and our base core of McDavid, Draisaitl, Lucic, Klefbom and Larsson are all locked up at what will be at market or below market numbers.

    By then we’ll be able to find takers for Russell and Sekera, and hopefully by then the now young D have established themselves or have been replaced.

    If the outer marker is Lundquist’s $8.5, than that’s only $4.5 to find by reducing the cap in other places.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pink Socks: The same Steve Yzerman that gave Matt Carle $5.5m and is still eating almost $2m in cap room until 2020?

    You are smarter than just comparing points between Tarasenko and Draisaitl to compare actual value to a team.

    I think he’s talking about the Yzerman who signed the Kucherov to a $4.7MM bridge.

    You know Kucherov. He’s the guy who played 8 less games and scored 8 more points than Leon last year.

    Yz is just goddam awful at evaluating Dmen though (other than Hedman and Stralman)

  19. Professor Q says:

    TO10801: Chicago is in cap hell because they gave Toews and Seabrook massive contracts that will take them pas their prime. The key difference is that we signed our 2 superstars for their prime. The moment we will be susceptible to cap hell will be when Klefbom/Larsson and Talbot need to be resigned. Klef will be going into his 30 yr old season when his contract is up. If you give him a seabrook type deal at that time you are in trouble. Also, Talbot will be going into his 32 year old season so if you give him big money over 5 years you are also in trouble. Staying out of cap hell requires paying for players most productive seasons and not paying them for what they have accomplished in their prime. If there are more Lucic/Russell signings then we can talk about cap hell, but until that happens PC should be able to build a championship roster somewhat similar to that of Pittsburgh.

    Yep, but I was referring to the scenario if the cap goes down during the next lockout.

  20. dustrock says:

    Crosby’s Pens:

    2007-08 – lost in Finals to Wings
    2008-09 – beat Wings in Finals
    09-10 – lost in Conf Semis to Habs
    10-11 – lost in 1st round to TB
    11-12 – lost in 1st round to Flyers (god I loved this series)
    12-13- lost in Conf Finals to Bruins
    13-14 – lost in 2nd round to Rangers
    14-15 – lost in 1st round to NYR
    15-16 – beat Sharks in Finals
    16-17 – beat Preds in Finals

    I bet the thinking here is “lock up McDavid and Draisaitl for 8 years no matter what, because, like Pittsburgh, we can hopefully plug guys in at any point and have a shot at the Cup”.

    Up until the last 2 years, Crosby had 1 Cup in his career. There are no guarantees.

  21. Jaxon says:

    Lowetide,

    OriginalPouzar:
    What do you have returning in a Nuge trade?

    I foresee a Brendan Gallagher type return and not re-signing Maroon.

    If Maroon scores a reasonable 23G/48P, do you think he signs for less than $4.5M? This will be his one chance for “big money”

    I see Gallagher as the most likely candidate, too. He’s 25 and has 4yrs left at $3.75M.
    Other Candidates:
    LW/C Boone Jenner (CBJ), 24yr, 1 yr @ $2.9 but controlled as RFA
    RW/C Charlie Coyle (MIN), 25yr, 3 yrs @ $3.2M, Boston kid so Chiarelli knows him well.
    C Victor Rask (CAR), 24yr, 5yrs @ $4.0M
    LW Anders Lee (NYI), 27yr, 2 yrs @ $3.75M – could they go back to that well again? Doubtful. Mayfield is also an underrated RHD that they might be able to get thrown in. Lee-Mayfield for Nuge-Mantha?

    D Candidates:
    David Savard (CBJ) 26yr, 4yrs @ $4.25M – CBJ may value him too much to get it done. Caleb Jones may be able to sweeten the pot in any CBJ deal.
    Erik Gudbranson (VAN), 25yr, 1 yr @ $3.5M – if it’s Nuge, Edmonton would have to be allowed to negotiate a contract prior to a deal. Otherwise it’s a pick at the deadline or just wait for free agency.

    Trevor Van Riemsdyk (CAR), 26yr, 1yr @ $0.825M RFA – he is 3rd pair in CAR but can play higher

    Brett Pesce (CAR), 22yr, 1 yr @ $0.809M, then 6 yrs @ $4.025M – I think they value him too much to let him go.

    Justin Faulk (CAR), 25yr, 3yrs @ $4.83M – Nuge probably isn’t enough and Faulk doesn’t save Edmonton much money, but Edmonton would absolutely be set in their top 4 for the next 3 years.

    If Gudbranson can be had for Gryba and a 2nd Round Pick, and Nuge for Boone Jenner, I think Emdonton would have done quite well.

    Also, I think Maroon is gone to STL. It’s his 1st chance for big money, but also his 1st chance to dictate where he plays. His son is in STL and it’s his hometown. If anyone gets a Maroon discount it might be STL.

    EDIT: Bjugstad in FLA is a possibility, but he’s had injury woes and has a higher contract than other options at $4.1M. It would be a gamble on whether or not he can get back to form again. He’s had 2 down years in a row.

  22. slopitch says:

    dustrock:
    Crosby’s Pens:

    2007-08 – lost in Finals to Wings
    2008-09 – beat Wings in Finals
    09-10 – lost in Conf Semis to Habs
    10-11 – lost in 1st round to TB
    11-12 – lost in 1st round to Flyers (god I loved this series)
    12-13- lost in Conf Finals to Bruins
    13-14 – lost in 2nd round to Rangers
    14-15 – lost in 1st round to NYR
    15-16 – beat Sharks in Finals
    16-17 – beat Preds in Finals

    I bet the thinking here is “lock up McDavid and Draisaitl for 8 years no matter what, because, like Pittsburgh, we can hopefully plug guys in at any point and have a shot at the Cup”.

    Up until the last 2 years, Crosby had 1 Cup in his career.There are no guarantees.

    I think Fleury cost them 1-2 cups however. They have been the absolute cup favs even in the Kings/Hawks years when Crosby has been healthy.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: Which could end poorly for Edmonton.

    If the Cap goes down during a lockout then the situation would obviously get much worse.

    But there is still time to win a Cup or two before “Cap Hell”, which I don’t think will be as bad as Chicago.

    A re-setting of the cap down would very likely come with compliance buyouts (i.e. Lucic).

  24. Pink Socks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think he’s talking about the Yzerman who signed the Kucherov to a $4.7MM bridge.

    You know Kucherov.He’s the guy who played 8 less games and scored 8 more points than Leon last year.

    Yz is just goddam awful at evaluating Dmen though (other than Hedman and Stralman)

    Yeah, the same Kucherov who is a top 3 winger in the league and is one of my personal favorites. Also, the same Kucherov that Yzerman is going to wish like hell he signed him to 8×8 when he had a chance, because when that bargain bridge is up he’s going to shit all over his cap with $10m+, or worse, lose the player.

    Edit: my reasoning behind the post at Batman was that all GM’s screw up deals. Yzerman is an above average GM, and he makes dumb moves from time to time as well. Carle & Garrison are just a couple.

  25. slopitch says:

    Overall Im happy with getting Drai locked up. I would have bridged him. But Im not against giving him extra dough during the last year of the McDavid entry deal under the assumption that he continues to develop. Drai has the it factor, whatever it is but he’s worked tirelessly on the weaknesses of his game and has got results. The last 20 games of the season and the playoffs earned him 16 million (at least) over the next 8 years. Good on him.

    As for what I think will happen (or should happen).
    1) Oilers are buyers at the deadline (picks out). Can we beat Anaheim this year? I think we need a difference maker on D. Chara?
    2) Play Pat Maroon with McDavid and thank him for his time. And let him go.
    3) Bridge Benning. Lock in Nurse.
    4) Sad to say but I think Nuge has to go (cao wise, picks in)
    5) Buy from the ufa bargain tree (July 10th onwards).

  26. Professor Q says:

    Pink Socks,

    There’s also Tyler Johnson, non? $5 million x 7?

    Although production did taper off in the past two years.

  27. reckless restraint says:

    Let’s say Doan and Iginla remain free agents, represent Canada at the Olympics, and stand out. Does the time frame work for them to be signed before the trade deadline?

  28. Cassandra says:

    Pink Socks: The same Steve Yzerman that gave Matt Carle $5.5m and is still eating almost $2m in cap room until 2020?

    You are smarter than just comparing points between Tarasenko and Draisaitl to compare actual value to a team.

    I chose points because Draisatl’s points are the strongest argument in his favour. If you start to use things like “actual value to a team” that strongly favours Tarasenko. Draisatl scored his points while playing with McDavid. In a sane world that would reduce his value.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Pink Socks: Yeah, the same Kucherov who is a top 3 winger in the league and is one of my personal favorites. Also, the same Kucherov that Yzerman is going to wish like hell he signed him to 8×8 when he had a chance, because when that bargain bridge is up he’s going to shit all over his cap with $10m+, or worse, lose the player.

    Edit: my reasoning behind the post at Batman was that all GM’s screw up deals.Yzerman is an above average GM, and he makes dumb moves from time to time as well.Carle & Garrison are just a couple.

    That’s kind of my thinking, too. Chiarelli has to have value contracts, like Oscar Klefbom and (I believe) Cam Talbot. McDavid is one this year as well. Teams who have players overperforming their deals have a better chance to win.

    The question for me about Leon isn’t the money. Honestly. It’s that he’s unproven for the money. That said, I wanted eight years and am happy for it. The deal after the bridge seems to be a stepping off point, as I mentioned with Subban yesterday. Even if the guy signs there seems to be a fracture.

    The heart of the cluster is in place and it is very dear. Edmonton needs value deals! Talbot, Klefbom, Benning, McDavid, Jokinen, Letestu, possibly some of the kids. Need more. Always.

    I’m happy with Leon being signed for eight years.

  30. Pink Socks says:

    Professor Q: Yep, but I was referring to the scenario if the cap goes down during the next lockout.

    The cap didn’t go down in the last one, it stayed flat and is up $10m in the past 5 years. I don’t think teams can operate with the fear of a lower cap in future years.

    OriginalPouzar: A re-setting of the cap down would very likely come with compliance buyouts (i.e. Lucic).

    Exactly. The cap doesn’t reset after a new CBA without 1 or 2 compliance buyouts.

  31. Professor Q says:

    Pink Socks: The cap didn’t go down in the last one, it stayed flat and is up $10m in the past 5 years.I don’t think teams can operate with the fear of a lower cap in future years.

    Exactly.The cap doesn’t reset after a new CBA without 1 or 2 compliance buyouts.

    Pink Socks: The cap didn’t go down in the last one, it stayed flat and is up $10m in the past 5 years.I don’t think teams can operate with the fear of a lower cap in future years.

    Exactly.The cap doesn’t reset after a new CBA without 1 or 2 compliance buyouts.

    Oh, I wasn’t talking about signing in fear. I was just mentioning a potential scenario.

    Sheesh.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    How do we reconcile:

    1) Being year after year contenders and, presumably, buyers at the deadline (picks/prospects out for soon to be UFA rentals)

    with

    2) The absolute need to have a steady stream of prospects to replace the secondary/tertiary players as they reach their mid-late 20s and price themselves out of our cap structure?

  33. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: I chose points because Draisatl’s points are the strongest argument in his favour.If you start to use things like “actual value to a team” that strongly favours Tarasenko.Draisatl scored his points while playing with McDavid.In a sane world that would reduce his value.

    Or does the organization’s view of Draisaitl being C in his career thus giving our team (one of) the best 1/2 C punch in the league down the middle have more value than a winger. C is always more valuable than W, in my humble opinion.

  34. Pink Socks says:

    Professor Q:
    Pink Socks,

    There’s also Tyler Johnson, non? $5 million x 7?

    Although production did taper off in the past two years.

    I think Tyler Johnson even with tapering production at $5m is a great contract for TB.

  35. Pink Socks says:

    Professor Q:
    Oh, I wasn’t talking about signing in fear. I was just mentioning a potential scenario.

    Sheesh.

    I misinterpreted you then, sorry

  36. Jaxon says:

    Pink Socks: The same Steve Yzerman that gave Matt Carle $5.5m and is still eating almost $2m in cap room until 2020?

    You are smarter than just comparing points between Tarasenko and Draisaitl to compare actual value to a team.

    Yzerman – Stamkos @ 8.5, Kucherov @ 4.76, Hedman @7.87, Johnson @5, Palat @ 5.3, Killorn @ 4.45, Stralman @ 4.5, Vasilevsky @3.5. Outside of Callahan @5.8 (who is valuable but doesn’t produce enough) and Carle he’s negotiated great contracts. Stamkos @ 8.5 just last summer was an amazing deal.

    Also, beyond points, Tarasenko is well known to be a very complete player as well as a gritty competitior, plus goal scorers are a huge asset.

  37. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide,

    One things for sure, yesterday’s signing has killed any chances of seeing the ‘Balance’ picture. For potentially the next eight to ten years, we’re going to see a revolving door of prospects traded for cents on the dollar before they earn their big contract and aging journeymen like Larry McKorpikoski.

    Read into Chia’s wording yesterday: “It’s a challenge for us to backfill and maintain talent in addition to these two players, and frankly, it was a point of discussion with both of them in their negotiations and they both acknowledged it in some shape or form.”

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/draisaitl-mcdavid-deals-present-challenge-oilers/

    Well, it seems like one of them heard loud and clear and gave the discount, whilst the other threw himself Scrooge McDuck style into a huge wad of cash.

    Notice he didn’t say “they both acknowledged it in giving us the cap flexibility needed to compete in todays cap-era NHL.”

  38. Pink Socks says:

    Lowetide: That’s kind of my thinking, too. Chiarelli has to have value contracts, like Oscar Klefbom and (I believe) Cam Talbot. McDavid is one this year as well. Teams who have players overperforming their deals have a better chance to win.

    The question for me about Leon isn’t the money. Honestly. It’s that he’s unproven for the money. That said, I wanted eight years and am happy for it. The deal after the bridge seems to be a stepping off point, as I mentioned with Subban yesterday. Even if the guy signs there seems to be a fracture.

    The heart of the cluster is in place and it is very dear. Edmonton needs value deals! Talbot, Klefbom, Benning, McDavid, Jokinen, Letestu, possibly some of the kids. Need more. Always.

    I’m happy with Leon being signed for eight years.

    LT your point yesterday on Subban was excellent. If Bergeron signs him out of his ELC for 8 years he is likely still in Montreal for far less than $9m. I do believe that the league is moving (and will continue to do so) towards a greater disparity between the top 3-4 salaries on a team and the bottom 10 to 15 contracts.

    Had Leon had any time from WHL through to his first NHL seasons where he had regressed or stayed flat I would have been concerned, but since there has always been consistent improvement, I think the risk of the 8 years is mitigated somewhat.

  39. Pink Socks says:

    Jaxon: Yzerman – Stamkos @ 8.5, Kucherov @ 4.76, Hedman @7.87, Johnson @5, Palat @ 5.3, Killorn @ 4.45, Stralman @ 4.5, Vasilevsky @3.5. Outside of Callahan @5.8 (who is valuable but doesn’t produce enough) and Carle he’s negotiated great contracts.Stamkos @ 8.5 just last summer was an amazing deal.

    Also, beyond points, Tarasenko is well known to be a very complete player as well as a gritty competitior, plus goal scorers are a huge asset.

    As I stated in a subsequent post, Yzerman is an above average GM. He has negotiated several very good contracts, and bungled a few (mainly on D). As to Tarasenko, I believe that he was the best comp to determine the value of Draisaitl’s contract. It’s 2 years later, Drai is a C vs a W, so the contract fit in value.

    If he gets Kucherov in 2 years for a penny less than $10m I will be astonished.

  40. Lowetide says:

    One of the things I keep reading is about this signing being “Revelations” and all is lost. I just don’t see it that way. The risk, Leon makes $8.5 million a year to be a 75-point complementary player, is real and spectacular. But not fatal, imo. You can trade that player and get good in return.

  41. LoDog says:

    Yzerman did with Kucherov what PC wanted to avoid with Leon. A few years of a bargain contract at the expense of a much larger one down the road. How are the going to afford the 10+ million he will want in 2019?

  42. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Full respect to Stevie Y.

    But…

    Florida State Tax and Florida weather and life style is a big assist to signing club friendly contracts.

  43. dustrock says:

    Lowetide:
    One of the things I keep reading is about this signing being “Revelations” and all is lost. I just don’t see it that way. The risk, Leon makes $8.5 million a year to be a 75-point complementary player, is real and spectacular. But not fatal, imo.

    I was yelling at Bob Stauffer on Twitter last night because he, Tencer, and those kinda guys posted “I can’t believe anyone could possibly be upset about this deal, stop whining”, and the usual “you aren’t an Oilers fan, you’re never happy”.

    Sure, the people who thought Chiarelli was riding a pale horse were being a bit Chicken Little, to mangle a metaphor, but I was surprised at how angry and defensive some MSM and fans got for people daring to point out that it’s an obvious overpay for every single comp.

    People can’t look 2 seasons ahead I suppose. I get that.

  44. Spoils says:

    successful teams have fallen into 2 camps:

    1) stud D
    2) 3 scoring lines

    i don’t see strome as ever pushing the 3rd line. and i don’t see a stud on our d. that’s why – IMO this team needs to focus on building chemistry around our center depth – McD, Drai, Nuge, Letestu – at least for this year anyway.

    I’d bring in another scoring forward to increase the competition and odds of finding that chemistry.

    Nuge will have man strength. and like Bergeron (whose scoring came later), Nuge has IQ to go with that increased strength.

    3 scoring lines is the true path for the 2017-18 Oiler team. Add a FW to help that cause.

  45. leadfarmer says:

    Pink Socks: The cap didn’t go down in the last one, it stayed flat and is up $10m in the past 5 years.I don’t think teams can operate with the fear of a lower cap in future years.

    Exactly.The cap doesn’t reset after a new CBA without 1 or 2 compliance buyouts.

    No no no. The only reason the cap went up last 2 years is because the NHLPA voted to use the escalator and not because revenues went up. This hurts players with existing contracts but helps players that need contract, all of a sudden teams that didnt have much cap space have 5% more artificial cap so there is more competition to drive up player prices. Unfortunately this hurts players with existing contracts because they lose more money in escrow to pay for this cap bump (players get 50% of money, using 5% escalator does not increase revenues those are still the same. This is not something that will continue indefinitely so saying it will does not make it so. Players with existing contracts are paying for this cap increase!!!.

    Here is a nice although a little dated article on the escrow.
    http://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-escrow-tricky-dynamic/

  46. Cassandra says:

    Pink Socks: Or does the organization’s view of Draisaitl being C in his career thus giving our team (one of) the best 1/2 C punch in the league down the middle have more value than a winger.C is always more valuable than W, in my humble opinion.

    How do you reconcile the idea that centers are always more valuable than wingers with the Oilers playing Draisatl on the wing, presumably because they thought that is what produced the most value?

    In any case I do not believe centers are always more valuable than wingers. There is no evidence this is true. The most valuable forward is the one who drives the line. We know that wingers can drive lines, and we know that centers can be passengers.*

    *This is what WOWYs demonstrate. Some players are independent variables, while others are dependent variables, and the independent variable can play on the wing.

    In any case, I would trade Draisatl for Tarasenko at 8.5 million in a second, and so would anyone who thinks that past performance is predictive of future performance.

  47. Pink Socks says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Lowetide,

    One things for sure, yesterday’s signing has killed any chances of seeing the ‘Balance’ picture.For potentially the next eight to ten years, we’re going to see a revolving door of prospects traded for cents on the dollar before they earn their big contract and aging journeymen like Larry McKorpikoski.

    Read into Chia’s wording yesterday: “It’s a challenge for us to backfill and maintain talent in addition to these two players, and frankly, it was a point of discussion with both of them in their negotiations and they both acknowledged it in some shape or form.”

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/draisaitl-mcdavid-deals-present-challenge-oilers/

    Well, it seems like one of them heard loud and clear and gave the discount, whilst the other threw himself Scrooge McDuck style into a huge wad of cash.

    Notice he didn’t say “they both acknowledged it in giving us the cap flexibility needed to compete in todays cap-era NHL.”

    The question is, which current NHL roster is the most balanced?

    Pens? I don’t think so, but back to back cups has value. I think they win cups because Crosby. We have that strategy covered as well, so in that case I’m not sure balance matters.

    But if the goal is the balance picture, as it should be, personally, I think the most balanced teams are Nashville and Anaheim. The Ducks have 2 more seasons before Getzlaf (spits) Perry (spits) and Kesler (spits twice) start to become issues against the cap vs their relative production, and Nashville has $24m tied up in their top two players + goaltender.

    We can look at McDavid as a $750k credit, and Draisaitl as a $750k debit. Big picture though, $21m for these guys over an 8 year term is great stuff, and I think the balance is tough, but only for a couple of years while a few contracts disappear and the cap goes up.

  48. Cassandra says:

    dustrock: I was yelling at Bob Stauffer on Twitter last night because he, Tencer, and those kinda guys posted “I can’t believe anyone could possibly be upset about this deal, stop whining”, and the usual “you aren’t an Oilers fan, you’re never happy”.

    Sure, the people who thought Chiarelli was riding a pale horse were being a bit Chicken Little, to mangle a metaphor, but I was surprised at how angry and defensive some MSM and fans got for people daring to point out that it’s an obvious overpay for every single comp.

    People can’t look 2 seasons ahead I suppose.I get that.

    This is because the split between those who treat the Oilers as a problem to think about and those who treat the Oilers as fans and their role as defenders of the faith, will never be healed.

    The positions taken by the MSM are dictated by their role, and in this day and age that means defend everything the team does no matter what, and to treat those who would criticize the team as enemies.

  49. linkfromhyrule says:

    Lowetide: One of the things I keep reading is about this signing being “Revelations” and all is lost. I just don’t see it that way. The risk, Leon makes $8.5 million a year to be a 75-point complementary player, is real and spectacular. But not fatal, imo. You can trade that player and get good in return.

    We can always buy him out at a 1/6 cap hit until sometime in the 2030’s. 😀

  50. Pink Socks says:

    leadfarmer: No no no.The only reason the cap went up last 2 years is because the NHLPA voted to use the escalator and not because revenues went up.This hurts players with existing contracts but helps players that need contract, all of a sudden teams that didnt have much cap space have 5% more artificial cap so there is more competition to drive up player prices.Unfortunately this hurts players with existing contracts because they lose more money in escrow to pay for this cap bump (players get 50% of money, using 5% escalator does not increase revenues those are still the same.This is not something that will continue indefinitely so saying it will does not make it so.Players with existing contracts are paying for this cap increase!!!.

    Here is a nice although a little dated article on the escrow.
    http://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-escrow-tricky-dynamic/

    I understand that the escalator won’t continue indefinitely, but you also have to take into consideration that NHL revenues will not indefinitely be flat as they have for 2 years. As much as I despise certain things about Gary Bettman, the fact is that since the 05-06 NHL return from the lost season, NHL revenues are almost double. ~$2.25 billion up to ~$4.25 billion. That’s is incredible. Now key in expansion this year as well as 1 more team in the relatively near future, and it’s almost impossible for the NHL not to see a continued revenue growth.

  51. Cassandra says:

    LoDog:
    Yzerman did with Kucherov what PC wanted to avoid with Leon. A few years of a bargain contract at the expense of a much larger one down the road. How are the going to afford the 10+ million he will want in 2019?

    By signing Kucherov to that contract, Yzerman got to keep Palat, Johnson, and Killorn, thereby making the team better over the next few years.

    And when it comes time to sign Kucherov again, we’ll see what happens, but now Yzerman wins in the short term and has flexibility in the long term.

  52. GMB3 says:

    Imagine if Chia signed Drai for 5.5-6 million before last season. We would be laughing

  53. Jethro Tull says:

    Pink Socks: If Bergeron signs him out of his ELC for 8 years he is likely still in Montreal for far less than $9m.

    You have no way of knowing this, and even if true, is grossly using hindsight to justify a decision made in real time. Subban had just won a Norris before signing his bridge, if I remember correctly.

  54. Lowetide says:

    dustrock: I was yelling at Bob Stauffer on Twitter last night because he, Tencer, and those kinda guys posted “I can’t believe anyone could possibly be upset about this deal, stop whining”, and the usual “you aren’t an Oilers fan, you’re never happy”.

    Sure, the people who thought Chiarelli was riding a pale horse were being a bit Chicken Little, to mangle a metaphor, but I was surprised at how angry and defensive some MSM and fans got for people daring to point out that it’s an obvious overpay for every single comp.

    People can’t look 2 seasons ahead I suppose.I get that.

    I tend to think this Draisaitl contract will take two years to suss out. I don’t think they’ll deployhim at C for much of this season, but will be forced to the following year when nuge is gone. Summer 2019 we should have an idea if he can push the river.

    And hopefully Edmonton will have found another one in Puljujarvi.

  55. leadfarmer says:

    leadfarmer: No no no.The only reason the cap went up last 2 years is because the NHLPA voted to use the escalator and not because revenues went up.This hurts players with existing contracts but helps players that need contract, all of a sudden teams that didnt have much cap space have 5% more artificial cap so there is more competition to drive up player prices.Unfortunately this hurts players with existing contracts because they lose more money in escrow to pay for this cap bump (players get 50% of money, using 5% escalator does not increase revenues those are still the same.This is not something that will continue indefinitely so saying it will does not make it so.Players with existing contracts are paying for this cap increase!!!.

    Here is a nice although a little dated article on the escrow.
    http://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-escrow-tricky-dynamic/

    People think this money comes from nowhere but its actually the players that pay for it. The escalator hasnt been that far from the cap but lets say the cap remains unchanged but the escalator is used for 5 straight years that is over 25% (accrued percentages of 5% per year) that is payed from players to players. If you are an 1 million dollar player you will get pretty pissed of if you are paying over 250k to other players most of whom are better off than you

  56. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: You can trade that player and get good in return.

    You can maybe trade that player, but not that contract, should he not live up to it. Plenty of examples of that.

  57. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Oilers can’t take on much salary in a Nuge trade. I’dsay someone like Teravainen,but for the roster above I moved him out for picks. Which could happen.

    I think it might be RNH for a 1st or a young player early in an ELC or not quite a NHLer.

  58. Jethro Tull says:

    Oh, and while I’m a critic of the $ amount, I am absolutely a Drai fanboy. I am really rooting for him, not just to make that contract value, but because as Drai goes, so do the Oilers – if he’s having a monster year, then it’s likely the team is in a good place too.

  59. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think it might be RNH for a 1st or a young player early in an ELC or not quite a NHLer.

    That’s probably a better plan, and closer to the actual return.

  60. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think it might be RNH for a 1st or a young player early in an ELC or not quite a NHLer.

    Trading RNH, we’d certainly be able to fill the prospect cupboard again.

  61. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: How do you reconcile the idea that centers are always more valuable than wingers with the Oilers playing Draisatl on the wing, presumably because they thought that is what produced the most value?

    A few ways. Draisaitl was moved to the wing because the belief was that Eberle and your BFF Lucic were not getting the job done and there needed to be a change. I also reconcile it from (I know small sample) Draisaitl’s playoff performance centering his own line and the importance the organization places on having the flexibility to have 29 on 97’s wing today and centering 27 and 42 tomorrow. I would wager that Draisaitl will player a higher percentage of his overall ice time at C this season over last.

    Cassandra:
    In any case I do not believe centers are always more valuable than wingers.There is no evidence this is true.The most valuable forward is the one who drives the line.We know that wingers can drive lines, and we know that centers can be passengers.*

    Agree, however, if you polled 31 NHL GMs and asked them if they could have a free PPG player of equal size and stature at either the wing or center, most, if not all, take the center.

    Cassandra:
    In any case, I would trade Draisatl for Tarasenko at 8.5 million in a second, and so would anyone who thinks that past performance is predictive of future performance.

    So if you think past performance is predictive of future performance why is Tarasenko at $8.5m good and Draisaitl at the same number bad? Seems to me the past performance of each player looks pretty similar in their career history. Remember Tarasenko also marinated in the KHL before his draft +3 rookie season.

  62. Pink Socks says:

    Jethro Tull: You have no way of knowing this, and even if true, is grossly using hindsight to justify a decision made in real time.Subban had just won a Norris before signing his bridge, if I remember correctly.

    Of course it’s hindsight, but isn’t hindsight what we use to justify future decision making?

    Subban won that Norris in the first year of his ELC which bit Bergeron in the ass. Hard. His current salary, fact that he is on another team, and what could have been in Montreal are all factors that a smart GM uses in order to determine how to proceed with current elite-status players coming off their ELC.

  63. LoDog says:

    Jethro Tull: You have no way of knowing this, and even if true, is grossly using hindsight to justify a decision made in real time.Subban had just won a Norris before signing his bridge, if I remember correctly.

    He won the Norris the first year of his bridge, thats how it all spectacularly backfired on Bergeron.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    One of the things I keep reading is about this signing being “Revelations” and all is lost. I just don’t see it that way. The risk, Leon makes $8.5 million a year to be a 75-point complementary player, is real and spectacular. But not fatal, imo. You can trade that player and get good in return.

    If Leon is a consistent 75 point player, he’s full value for this contract.

    75 points was 10th in the NHL in scoring – are we suggesting he needs to be a top 5 NHL point producer to meet expectations?

  65. Pink Socks says:

    LoDog: He won the Norris the first year of his bridge, thats how it all spectacularly backfired on Bergeron.

    After his asinine summer this year, barring a miracle, Bergeron is in the unemployment line this time next year.

  66. Jethro Tull says:

    Pink Socks: Of course it’s hindsight, but isn’t hindsight what we use to justify future decision making?

    I meant hindsight in that you are using the subsequent results to critique a decision made when the people who made those decisions had no idea what those results would be.

    All: I feel we’re getting dangerously close to somebody suggesting cutting ice-time or stifling the progress of any player who looks like he may cost you decent coin down the road in order to get a value contract. I would urge anyone thinking this to think the idea through in it’s entirety. It’s clearly ‘Smartest Men in the Room’ thinking.

  67. Jethro Tull says:

    LoDog: He won the Norris the first year of his bridge, thats how it all spectacularly backfired on Bergeron.

    Can we then say that Connor McDavid winning all that silverware has backfired spectacularly on Chia?

  68. verite says:

    Cassandra,
    The complaints about the Draistatl contract ignore that the real objective is to win the Stanley Cup this year.
    A bridge contract would have been a cancer to this team.
    Who cares about the future? Prospects never work out. Present value is all that matters.
    Chiarelli should sign Lombardi asap.

  69. LoDog says:

    Jethro Tull: Can we then say that Connor McDavid winning all that silverware has backfired spectacularly on Chia?

    No. PC signed McDavid as early as he could.

  70. Pink Socks says:

    Jethro Tull: I meant hindsight in that you are using the subsequent results to critique a decision made when the people who made those decisions had no idea what those results would be.

    That contract was pretty heavily criticized at the time as well, but I’m using that contract as the prime example why PC made the right call here. By using hindsight and past history, better decisions can be made in the future.

    Of course these numbers are all pulled out of the air, but if Leon is bridged, ~$6m for 2 years, and the big one is ~$10-$12m, PC made a horrible mistake. There’s no way to tell but to fast forward 2 years and see how Leon has performed. Fingers crossed PC was right, I think he was.

  71. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: If Leon is a consistent 75 point player, he’s full value for this contract.

    75 points was 10th in the NHL in scoring – are we suggesting he needs to be a top 5 NHL point producer to meet expectations?

    I’m suggesting that:

    1. Leon’s contract becomes a value deal only if he pushes the river on his own line and outscores opposition 5×5.
    2. Even if it isn’t a value contract, a complementary Leon scoring 75 points has trade value.

    I think the Oilers have a right to expect Leon to drive results onhis own line. Even if he can’t, Draisaitl will be useful, and tradeable.

  72. slopitch says:

    Lowetide: That’s probably a better plan, and closer to the actual return.

    Drai at 8.5 starts to move the bar up a bit for the price of C’s. I think Nuge on the open market easily gets 6 despite his average offense. Nuge is a good PP player and with more PP time I think is a good bet for a team. I think his value today is perhaps more then it was at the end of the season.

  73. Bruce McCurdy says:

    GMB3:
    Imagine if Chia signed Drai for 5.5-6 million before last season. We would be laughing

    We would be laughing NOW. But you can bet your ass there would have been plenty of pissing & moaning when he signed.

  74. who says:

    I think the contract is 500,000 to 1 mil to high on AAV but I am delighted with the 8 year term. No one knows for sure what Drai is going to produce over the next 8 years but I think he is a good bet to cover the contract.
    I agree with most people on here that Lucic and Russell are the boat anchors and I am really not that worried about the Russell contract. He will be here for 2 or 3 years and then traded. That buys enough time for Nurse and Benning to ease in to larger roles and gives some of the pro rookies time to get settled in and get a taste of the NHL.
    On the other hand, the Lucic contract probably prevents Chia from resigning Maroon and Maroon looks like a cheaper version of the same player. I hope Chia is smart enough to let Maroon walk after another big season with MacDavid. If he signs him for big money and term we will have truly arrived in cap hell.
    Nuge looks like the obvious choice to be traded to ease cap pressure but I think there are other options and I think Chia may explore some of them. Big year for the Nuge.
    At the end of the day the positive contracts for me are MacDavid for 9, Drai for 8, Klefbom for 6 and Larsson for 4. Also would like to keep Talbot, Sek and Nuge but realize that may not be possible. I think it is important they leave room to sign Nurse and JP to long term deals.

  75. Pink Socks says:

    Bruce McCurdy: We would be laughing NOW. But you can bet your ass there would have been plenty of pissing & moaning when he signed.

    I see what you did there.

  76. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Pink Socks: We can look at McDavid as a $750k credit, and Draisaitl as a $750k debit. Big picture though, $21m for these guys over an 8 year term is great stuff, and I think the balance is tough, but only for a couple of years while a few contracts disappear and the cap goes up.

    So you think that the $4 MM difference between 97 and 29 should be more like $5.5 MM?

    Fwiw, extending LT’s splits from yesterday, Oilers scoring from Mar 01 through the end of the playoffs (31 games):

    Draisaitl 12-27-39, +10
    McDavid 14-23-37, +10

    Not saying Leon is better, just saying that’s kinda interesting. The Deutschland Dangler sure built a solid negotiating platform.

  77. Thinker says:

    verite:
    Its like peopleon this board never watched hockey games.
    Hall was heartless and gutless, will prove it again in NJ this year.
    Look at what Draisatl did against Anaheim. That performance is why he got paid yesterday.
    Russell remains essential to having the OIlers actually being able to play functional defense. MacLelland knows that. This team would be in disarry without him.
    Too many people want to win specific contract negotiations without ever understanding what the real objective is – win the Stanley Cup this year.
    Remember we all dead in the long run.

    I found one who doesn’t. I’ll say a lot of bad things about Hall’s attitude, personality et cetera, but his attitude on the ice was fine. He had a fire that he played with that was admirable. I hated his drives to the net off the rush where he usually settled on trying to shoot through the goalie, and think his game (at least the last 3 years) is overrated around here. That said, you could easily win with Hall the hockey player. Hall the person was taking leadership space from McDavid, and may have been costing the team. He was here 6 years, and the team was never comfortable giving him the C, that is telling. They gave it to Ference, who was a relative unknown to management and team.

  78. Thinker says:

    I have both Connor and Leon as overpaid in a cap world. Underpaid IRL.

  79. russ99 says:

    Are we just looking at points to check Leon’s value?

    For years we’ve been looking for a big center with some physicality, plays effectively in all three zones, plays well in the cycle and on the rush.

    Thank goodness we have him locked down for 8 years.

  80. stush18 says:

    Pink Socks: That contract was pretty heavily criticized at the time as well, but I’m using that contract as the prime example why PC made the right call here. By using hindsight and past history, better decisions can be made in the future.

    Of course these numbers are all pulled out of the air, but if Leon is bridged, ~$6m for 2 years, and the big one is ~$10-$12m, PC made a horrible mistake. There’s no way to tell but to fast forward 2 years and see how Leon has performed.Fingers crossed PC was right, I think he was.

    Yup. That’s what I had referenced on twitter.

    Everyone wants to see drai have a history of pushing the river before paying him. Problem is, when he does it (subban), it wrecks your salary structure.

    I think everyone needs to do a little critical thinking,, and ask themselves, “is Leon Draisatil going to set himself up for an even larger contract after the bridge?”

    Because if you don’t believe in three years that drai is worth more than what he is being paid, then we all have a serious disconnect.

  81. dustrock says:

    Bruce McCurdy: So you think that the $4 MM difference between 97 and 29 should be more like $5.5 MM?

    Fwiw, extending LT’s splits from yesterday, Oilers scoring from Mar 01 through the end of the playoffs (31 games):

    Draisaitl 12-27-39, +10
    McDavid 14-23-37, +10

    Not saying Leon is better, just saying that’s kinda interesting. The Deutschland Dangler sure built a solid negotiating platform.

    Absolutely. And I think McDsvid was actually shut down as much as is possible in the playoffs. Drai seemed to step up.

    Not saying Pippen is better than Jordan but sometimes when the entire plan is to stop Jordan, then Pippen gets voted in as one of the Top 50 NBA Players of All Time.

  82. Pink Socks says:

    Bruce McCurdy: So you think that the $4 MM difference between 97 and 29 should be more like $5.5 MM?

    Fwiw, extending LT’s splits from yesterday, Oilers scoring from Mar 01 through the end of the playoffs (31 games):

    Draisaitl 12-27-39, +10
    McDavid 14-23-37, +10

    Not saying Leon is better, just saying that’s kinda interesting. The Deutschland Dangler sure built a solid negotiating platform.

    I’m of the opinion that the gap doesn’t matter as “The Deutschland Dangler” (epic btw) should have been negotiated based on the contract of Tarasenko.

    Those splits from the last 31 are very interesting, and impressive. Leon played his way into this contract for sure. I’m especially glad that these 8 year contracts are 21-29 years old.

  83. Professor Q says:

    Pink Socks: I misinterpreted you then, sorry

    My apologies for being overly reactive as well.

    I’ll get better, lol.

  84. Pink Socks says:

    stush18: Yup. That’s what I had referenced on twitter.

    Everyone wants to see drai have a history of pushing the river before paying him. Problem is, when he does it (subban), it wrecks your salary structure.

    I think everyone needs to do a little critical thinking,, and ask themselves, “is Leon Draisatil going to set himself up for an even larger contract after the bridge?”

    Because if you don’t believe in three years that drai is worth more than what he is being paid, then we all have a serious disconnect.

    Excellent post.

  85. speeds says:

    Pink Socks: That contract was pretty heavily criticized at the time as well, but I’m using that contract as the prime example why PC made the right call here. By using hindsight and past history, better decisions can be made in the future.

    Of course these numbers are all pulled out of the air, but if Leon is bridged, ~$6m for 2 years, and the big one is ~$10-$12m, PC made a horrible mistake. There’s no way to tell but to fast forward 2 years and see how Leon has performed.Fingers crossed PC was right, I think he was.

    I wrote a bit about the Subban comparable awhile ago, might be relevant to the discussion here:

    http://hockeysymposium.blogspot.ca/2017/07/the-draisaitl-contract-part-2a-bridge.html

  86. Pink Socks says:

    dustrock: Absolutely.And I think McDsvid was actually shut down as much as is possible in the playoffs.Drai seemed to step up.

    Not saying Pippen is better than Jordan but sometimes when the entire plan is to stop Jordan, then Pippen gets voted in as one of the Top 50 NBA Players of All Time.

    Great analogy

  87. frjohnk says:

    CapFriendly @CapFriendly

    Food for thought #Oilers cap hit:
    17-18: $66.7M (24 players)
    18-19: $60.7M (13 players)

    The 11 players that are missing in the 18-19 equation are

    -Forwards
    Maroon
    Strome
    Sleppy
    Drake
    Letestu
    Jokinen
    Pak

    -Defence
    Benning
    Nurse
    Fayne

    -Goal
    Broissant

    About $18M to fill those 11 roster spots.

    Not out of the question that the 17-18 team could be better than the 18-19 team

  88. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pink Socks: I understand that the escalator won’t continue indefinitely, but you also have to take into consideration that NHL revenues will not indefinitely be flat as they have for 2 years.As much as I despise certain things about Gary Bettman, the fact is that since the 05-06 NHL return from the lost season, NHL revenues are almost double.~$2.25 billion up to ~$4.25 billion.That’s is incredible.Now key in expansion this year as well as 1 more team in the relatively near future, and it’s almost impossible for the NHL not to see a continued revenue growth.

    MLB and NFL grew more over the same time on a percentage basis than the NHL.

    That’s percentage, not gross revenue. Gross revenue wouldn’t be close (obv), but even as a percentage Gary was beat.

    There’s a good argument that Gary has under performed:

    This chart’s a little old, but you can see the trend lines showing the percentage grow: http://beyondthescorecard.blogspot.ca/2013/08/major-league-team-revenues.html

    NBA has had a great few last years and is back to beating the NHL too.

    http://beyondthescorecard.blogspot.ca/2013/08/major-league-team-revenues.html

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pink Socks: Yeah, the same Kucherov who is a top 3 winger in the league and is one of my personal favorites. Also, the same Kucherov that Yzerman is going to wish like hell he signed him to 8×8 when he had a chance, because when that bargain bridge is up he’s going to shit all over his cap with $10m+, or worse, lose the player.

    Edit: my reasoning behind the post at Batman was that all GM’s screw up deals.Yzerman is an above average GM, and he makes dumb moves from time to time as well.Carle & Garrison are just a couple.

    I disagree.

    Kucherov’s salary allows TBY to be among the best in the NHL for the next 3 years.

    When the time comes to re-up Kucherov, even if he gets $10MM, it doesn’t erase the fact that for 3 years they got one of the best in the NHL on a cheap deal which allowed Yz to load up.

    He wouldn’t trade that back at all.

  90. kgo says:

    Threadjack alert….just realized Yamamoto is left handed, meaning he shoots right but his dominant hand is at the top of his stick…this is probably quite rare in the NHL.

  91. Cassandra says:

    The argument against the bridge is the possibility at the end of that contract he would get a 10-12 M contract and hence 8.5 is a “good deal”

    I don’t see 75 point players getting 10-12 Million a year anytime soon. Therefore, to justify this contract 75 points needs to be the floor with a few 90 point seasons added in.

    Draisatl needs to be better than he has been so far to justify this contract. There is no way around that conclusion. 70-75 points, even on his own line, isn’t good enough.

    On any long term contract, the benefit to the team is the hedge against inflation, while the benefit to the player is the insurance against depreciation. In this case, the Oilers have gotten very little hedge while Draisatl has gotten a great deal of insurance.

    It is no surprise that fans like the deal, however. As far as I can tell fans think the risk of depreciation is near zero, while they believe that every young player improves. It might happen in this case, but these are not reasonable beliefs.

  92. Cassandra says:

    kgo:
    Threadjack alert….just realized Yamamoto is left handed, meaning he shoots right but his dominant hand is at the top of his stick…this is probably quite rare in the NHL.

    Quite the contrary. Most hockey players play with their dominant hand on top.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I’ve had to drive around a bit in the last few days and it seems like every voice on the radio has the same talking point:

    “You couldn’t bridge Leon, look what happened to MTL with PK!!!!”

    This is an exceptionally bad case and not analogous to Leon’s situation at all.

    Many here and on twitter proposed that MTL should go long with PK out of his ELC because his underlying numbers were phenomenal, near the top of the league and he was apparently willing to go long for about $5.5MM

    When an exceptional talent will go long AND cheap relative to their value today, you do it in a heartbeat, MTL fucked that up.

    Leon is the entire other side of the coin.

    His underlying numbers away from Hall and McDavid are not first line numbers, let alone top of the NHL.

    He is willing to go long….for the 9th highest cap hit in the NHL.

    That’s the opposite case of PK.

    So if you bridge Leon, what are you afraid of, that next contract he’d want the 5th highest cap hit instead of the 9th?

    If he has earned that away from McDavid you give it to him gladly.

    There is no evidence that he would earn that kind of cap hit away from McDavid so its a really good bet.

    Terrible analogy.

  94. stush18 says:

    Cassandra,

    Just stop.

    The league doesn’t not score like it used to.

    75 points was top ten last year. Leon does not need 90 point seasons for the next couple of years to match the salary.

  95. Thinker says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I’ve had to drive around a bit in the last few days and it seems like every voice on the radio has the same talking point:

    “You couldn’t bridge Leon, look what happened to MTL with PK!!!!”

    This is an exceptionally bad case and not analogous to Leon’s situation at all.

    Many here and on twitter proposed that MTL should go long with PK out of his ELC because his underlying numbers were phenomenal, near the top of the league and he was apparently willing to go long for about $5.5MM

    When an exceptional talent will go long AND cheap relative to their value today, you do it in a heartbeat, MTL fucked that up.

    Leon is the entire other side of the coin.

    His underlying numbers away from Hall and McDavid are not first line numbers, let alone top of the NHL.

    He is willing to go long….for the 9th highest cap hit in the NHL.

    That’s the opposite case of PK.

    So if you bridge Leon, what are you afraid of, that next contract he’d want the 5th highest cap hit instead of the 9th?

    If he has earned that away from McDavid you give it to him gladly.

    There is no evidence that he would earn that kind of cap hit away from McDavid so its a really good bet.

    Terrible analogy.

    Amen. Was gonna bring that up, but couldn’t remember where Subban was at that time, and have been pretty lazy recently.

  96. jm363561 says:

    As a man who has no idea what the man who knew infinity has to do with anything on today’s topic, this was still a great post LT and a fantastic thread. Totally on Cassandra’s train re Leon’s contract but I can just about see the wing and a prayer thinking behind it.

  97. Cassandra says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I disagree.

    Kucherov’s salary allows TBY to be among the best in the NHL for the next 3 years.

    When the time comes to re-up Kucherov, even if he gets $10MM, it doesn’t erase the fact that for 3 years they got one of the best in the NHL on a cheap deal which allowed Yz to load up.

    He wouldn’t trade that back at all.

    Exactly. Flexibility has significant value. It makes no sense for teams to commit to long term contracts if they don’t have to.

    Bridge contracts don’t have the risk that is being attributed to them, but they do allow you to assemble a better team than you could by going long term.

    TB has bridged almost everyone, keeping salaries down, and hasn’t lost a player or overpaid to keep a player, yet.

    The Kucherov contract makes the team better in the short term, that’s beyond dispute, and it only hurts them in the long term if they lose a player because of it, which may not happen. By contrast, a longer term contract would have hurt the team in the short term and it could hurt them in the long term.

    In this sense, every single long term contract for an RFA is a losing proposition in the short term, and this losing proposition isn’t balanced by the long term benefit, since every single long term, high dollar, contract, also has significant depreciation risk.

    Bridge everyone whose name isn’t McDavid. It is the right play.

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide,

    The risk, Leon makes $8.5 million a year to be a 75-point complementary player, is real and spectacular. But not fatal, imo. You can trade that player and get good in return.

    The other part of that risk is that he’s an above average 2C (65pts-ish) making Elite C (80pts+) money.

    I agree that overpaying Leon by ~$1MM isn’t a bad place to over pay.

    It shines a very harsh light on Russell and Lucic contracts. Especially Lucic.

    Its funny, while I was driving around yesterday everyone said “well either RNH or Sekera have to go now to make room, maybe both”, and I was like “what about moving Lucic or Russell instead…..?”

    I know moving Lucic might be close to impossible, but moving Sekera before Russell is nonsensical.

  99. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Woodguy. Honestly. Look past his numbers with mcdavid and evaluate the player you watched for the past couple years.

    Do you truly believe that Leon will not be worth more than this contract in three years? Even equal to it?

    Cuz I cannot see a way that his next contract blows apart the teams salary cap, and possibly fractures the relationship between player and team.

  100. Cassandra says:

    stush18:
    Cassandra,

    Just stop.

    The league doesn’t not score like it used to.

    75 points was top ten last year. Leon does not need 90 point seasons for the next couple of years to match the salary.

    There were 2.77 goals/game last year. Highest since 2010-11. Scoring has been basically level this entire decade.

    Saying 75 points was top ten last year is making the mistake of categorizing a continuous variable. As a rhetorical trick it can be effective, but as a substantive statement it lacks substance.

    The bet here by Chiarelli is that Draisatl scores 90 points, because only a 90 point Draisatl is going to get the 10-12 million numbers people are throwing around. If you hit on 18, and get a
    3, you still make a bad play.

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra,

    Bridge everyone whose name isn’t McDavid. It is the right play.

    I disagree with that.

    Going long on young talent that will sign cheap is always the right play.

    What Poile did in NSH with his Dcorps is a good example.

    Ellis 2.5 x 5
    Josi 4 x 7
    Ekholm 3.75 x6

    Similar to these are Barkov at 5.9 x 6, Scheifele 6.125 x 8 etc

    Most of these players are worth that money in their first year so its value for every year after

    When you have that opportunity you go long imo.

    All that extra value adds up to an extra top line forward or top pair Dmen in $$$.

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Woodguy. Honestly. Look past his numbers with mcdavid and evaluate the playeryou watched for the past couple years.

    Do you truly believe that Leon will not be worth more than this contract in three years? Even equal to it?

    Cuz I cannot see a way that his next contract blows apart the teams salary cap, and possibly fractures the relationship between player and team.

    I’ve watched an above average player work his way into the NHL and play very well with good players, but not so much on his own save for 81 minutes in the playoffs.

    What did I miss?

  103. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’ve watched an above average player work his way into the NHL and play very well with good players, but not so much on his own save for 81 minutes in the playoffs.

    What did I miss?

    This is so true. I’ve seen him look pretty lost out there at times centring his own line. I think this contract was a mistake. So much risk. The fans rationalizing this are probably the same fans who thought RNH was going to be an elite 1C when he signed his contract.. but the size fetish folks think it’ll be different because Drai is bigger and bigger is better…

  104. GMB3 says:

    What if RNH outperforms Drai this year? Do we trade Drai and his albatross of a contract?

    What is Drai shoots at 11% instead of 17%, and doesn’t play much with McDavid and puts up 50 points?

  105. stush18 says:

    Cassandra,

    They just let bishop walk away? And traded drouin because they couldn’t afford him?

  106. Cassandra says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Your calculus is exactly right. Go long term if the deal is a bargain right now. Like Subban’s would have been, like Petry’s would have been, like Klefbom’s was.

    I also wonder what people are afraid could have happened. Draisatl has the 10th highest cap hit in the league now. How much worse do they really think it could be?

  107. commonfan29 says:

    Based on what we saw this Spring, is Leon the likely Conn Smythe winner if the team manages to grab a Cup?

    Is Leon a threat to perform similarly to an $11 million Austin Matthews and/or Jack Eichel (assuming Eichel elects to bet on himself and has a big season)?

    Moreover, is Leon a McDavid injury away from seriously threatening for the Art Ross and/or Hart?

    These are questions the team would need to ask themselves when considering a bridge contract.

    I think the answer to all three of the above questions is “probably not,” but I guess Chia wasn’t willing to bet the team’s future on that.

    I think that was a mistake, but I hope to be proven wrong.

  108. kgo says:

    Cassandra,

    Ya but they all shoot left

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18:
    Cassandra,

    They just let bishop walk away? And traded drouin because they couldn’t afford him?

    Bishop is below average these day, Vasilevskiy is better and cheaper.

    Drouin was not in the top 4 in terms of forwards on the team and they got a player who might be a franchise Dman in return and they lacked good Dman prospects.

    Both moves were very astute.

  110. Cassandra says:

    stush18:
    Cassandra,

    They just let bishop walk away? And traded drouin because they couldn’t afford him?

    Bishop is 30 years old and just put up a .910 save percentage. Letting him go was the right thing to do.

    Drouin just had a 50 pt, power play aided, season and signed for 5.5 million and they traded him for one of the best prospects in the game. That’s a great trade for the Lightning.

    Those moves both saved the team money and made the team better.

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Your calculus is exactly right.Go long term if the deal is a bargain right now.Like Subban’s would have been, like Petry’s would have been, like Klefbom’s was.

    I also wonder what people are afraid could have happened.Draisatl has the 10th highest cap hit in the league now.How much worse do they really think it could be?

    Exactly.

    “They had to give him the a top 10 cap hit now, it could be worse later!”

    The odds of it being worse later are so bloody low.

    And if he did do it, you pay it gladly.

  112. GMB3 says:

    Cassandra: Quite the contrary.Most hockey players play with their dominant hand on top.

    As a left handed person who shot right I fully support this statement

  113. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Very well with good players is undermining his top ten in scoring performance this year.

    You also sidestepped the question.

    Do you think he will be at least equal or greater to the value of this contract after a two yr bridge deal would have “finished”?

  114. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra: Bishop is 30 years old and just put up a .910 save percentage.Letting him go was the right thing to do.

    Drouin just had a 50 pt, power play aided, season and signed for 5.5 million and they traded him for one of the best prospects in the game.That’s a great trade for the Lightning.

    Those moves both saved the team money and made the team better.

    Yeah trading a small skilled player which they are filled to the brim with and salary cap wouldn’t let them re-sign him anyway for a top notch defensive prospect which they really need is a win in my eye.

  115. Cassandra says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Very well with good players is undermining his top ten in scoring performance this year.

    You also sidestepped the question.

    Do you think he will be at least equal or greater to the value of this contract after a two yr bridge deal would have “finished”?

    I’ll bite, though I disagree with the terms. A bridge deal in this circumstance should be three years.

    In any case, I say the odds of him being equal or worth less than 8.5 in two or three years is greater than him being worth more. And even if he is worth more, I’d rather pay him 9 or 9.5 M three years from now, and get the larger discount up front. I think the idea that he would be worth 10-12 million unlikely and certainly not equal to the contrary risk that he is worth 6 M (or less).

  116. GMB3 says:

    Pink Socks,

    When has Drai been a ppg player as a center?

  117. GMB3 says:

    Cassandra: I’ll bite, though I disagree with the terms.A bridge deal in this circumstance should be three years.

    In any case, I say the odds of him being equal or worth less than 8.5 in two or three years is greater than him being worth more.And even if he is worth more, I’d rather pay him 9 or 9.5 M three years from now, and get the larger discount up front.I think the idea that he would be worth 10-12 million unlikely and certainly not equal to the contrary risk that he is worth 6 M (or less).

    This analysis is spot on imo. I’d rather pay him 9.5 million and know he’s a 9.5 million dollar player, while also giving us 2-3 years of cap flexibility early on. It would have greatly increased our chances of winning a cup in the next few years in my opinion.

  118. Cassandra says:

    stush18:
    Cassandra,

    They just let bishop walk away? And traded drouin because they couldn’t afford him?

    I’ll add that Drouin best year isn’t better than Eberle’s worst, he gets paid almost as much, and yet Yzerman got a much better return for Drouin than Chiarelli got for Eberle.

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Very well with good players is undermining his top ten in scoring performance this year.

    You also sidestepped the question.

    Do you think he will be at least equal or greater to the value of this contract after a two yr bridge deal would have “finished”?

    No, I don’t think he’d be equal to this contract after a 2 year bridge IF he played mostly 2C and not 1RW with 97.

    Also,

    Very well with good players is undermining his top ten in scoring performance this year.

    He scored 2.65/60 with McDavid and 1.80 without.

    That is what happened.

    How is that undermining him?

  120. stush18 says:

    Cassandra,

    Woodguy v2.0,

    The whole point of bridging kucherov was so that they didn’t have to let players walk. Paraphrasing what you’ve said. I’m at work so rickibear with me.

    If you just let bishop walk, and sent away drouin for a prospect that will not move the dial in likelyhood for the next three years, how did you improve in the now?

    You just walked away from two players that tip the scales in your favour for sergachev, who despite looking promising, probably isn’t going to be a franchise dman.

    So you didn’t get more competitive right now, and in two yrs you still have to reupp kucherov for approx 10 mill?

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18:
    Cassandra,

    Woodguy v2.0,

    The whole point of bridging kucherov was so that they didn’t have to let players walk. Paraphrasing what you’ve said. I’m at work so rickibear with me.

    If you just let bishop walk, and sent away drouin for a prospect that will not move the dial in likelyhood for the next three years, how did you improve in the now?

    You just walked away from two players that tip the scales in your favour for sergachev, who despite looking promising, probably isn’t going to be a franchise dman.

    So you didn’t get more competitive right now, and in two yrs you still have to reupp kucherov for approx 10 mill?

    Drouin isn’t as good as Palat, Kucherov, Stamkos or Johnson and wants $5M+

    Turning that into a guy who might be their 2nd best Dman as soon as 18/19 is a great move.

    I don’t see how you can see it otherwise.

    If Sergechev doesn’t play this year, he will next year and will probably move the dial right away, but we won’t know that for sure until it happens.

    Bishop is below average and expensive. How is not retaining him a bad move?

  122. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Who cares if it’s mostly 2c or 1RW?

    If he matches or equals that value, he’s equaled it. If he is payed 1 mill more than tarasenkow but continually put scores him, even as a RW, isn’t he worth that?

  123. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Lowetide,

    The risk, Leon makes $8.5 million a year to be a 75-point complementary player, is real and spectacular. But not fatal, imo. You can trade that player and get good in return.

    The other part of that risk is that he’s an above average 2C (65pts-ish) making Elite C (80pts+) money.

    I agree that overpaying Leon by ~$1MM isn’t a bad place to over pay.

    It shines a very harsh light on Russell and Lucic contracts.Especially Lucic.

    Its funny, while I was driving around yesterday everyone said “well either RNH or Sekera have to go now to make room, maybe both”, and I was like “what about moving Lucic or Russell instead…..?”

    I know moving Lucic might be close to impossible, but moving Sekera before Russell is nonsensical.

    I think people stay away from the idea of trading Milan Lucic because it’s a non-starter. I think people talk about Russell and Sekera together in terms of trade, mostly because their NMC’s begin to slide at the same time.

  124. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Because the team isn’t any better now.

    You said Yzerman has kept the team more competitive for the next few yrs until kucherovs next raise.

    But they just gave away players because they can’t afford them. They actually got worse. And you have to sign kucherov to an even bigger contract in two years.

    So you have to hope that within the next two yrs, vasilivsky (so) and sergachev turn the clock enough to help them win the cup, because you’ll be shedding players again and becoming less competitive again once kucherovs next contract kicks in.

    And I’m a fan, but if sergachev is the teams second best dman in 18/19/ I’ll eaty hat. That’s old oilers thinking, and is hopefully not part of the plan.

  125. bendelson says:

    Question: Do Yzerman/Cooper intentionally slow play Sergachev this season (under 40 games)? It will save them a 2nd Rd pick if I’m not mistaken…

  126. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    stush18,

    Weird amount of fawning for a team that missed the playoffs this year… Better hope Vasilevsky doesn’t get hurt or they are a bubble team (ducks for cover).

  127. godot10 says:

    kgo:
    Threadjack alert….just realized Yamamoto is left handed, meaning he shoots right but his dominant hand is at the top of his stick…this is probably quite rare in the NHL.

    That’s mostly normal. Right-handed people tend to shoot left. Left-handed people tend to shoot right.

  128. frjohnk says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Who cares if it’s mostly 2c or 1RW?

    If he matches or equals that value, he’s equaled it. If he is payed 1 mill more than tarasenkow but continually put scores him, even as a RW, isn’t he worth that?

    Tarasenko played over half his season with Lehtera as his center
    Draisaitl played over half his season with McDavid

    Tarasenko scored two less points than Draisaitl during the season.

    Can Draisaitl outscore Tarasenko without playing with McDavid?

  129. godot10 says:

    Cassandra:

    I don’t see 75 point players getting 10-12 Million a year anytime soon.Therefore, to justify this contract 75 points needs to be the floor with a few 90 point seasons added in.

    Eichel, Matthews, Seguin, and Tavares are almost certainly all getting $10 million plus.

  130. stush18 says:

    frjohnk,

    Can drai oitscore tarasenko playing with klefbom, Larsson and Russell?

    Because tarasenko is was getting fed by a pretty good dcorps.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cassandra: I’ll bite, though I disagree with the terms.A bridge deal in this circumstance should be three years.

    In any case, I say the odds of him being equal or worth less than 8.5 in two or three years is greater than him being worth more.And even if he is worth more, I’d rather pay him 9 or 9.5 M three years from now, and get the larger discount up front.I think the idea that he would be worth 10-12 million unlikely and certainly not equal to the contrary risk that he is worth 6 M (or less).

    An important note (at least I think so) on any sort of big money bridge for Leon – we would need to qualify him at the high salary for his next contract.

    Any lower AAV bridge would most certainly be structured by Liut to also require a huge QO.

  132. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Drouin isn’t as good as Palat, Kucherov, Stamkos or Johnson and wants $5M+

    Turning that into a guy who might be their 2nd best Dman as soon as 18/19 is a great move.

    I don’t see how you can see it otherwise.

    If Sergechev doesn’t play this year, he will next year and will probably move the dial right away, but we won’t know that for sure until it happens.

    Bishop is below average and expensive.How is not retaining him a bad move?

    I think its fair to say Bishop is below average in odd number years. In even number years he is quite good

  133. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No, I don’t think he’d be equal to this contract after a 2 year bridge IF he played mostly 2C and not 1RW with 97.

    Also,

    Very well with good players is undermining his top ten in scoring performance this year.

    He scored 2.65/60 with McDavid and 1.80 without.

    That is what happened.

    How is that undermining him?

    Sort of undermining him when you say he wouldn’t be worth this contract if he had to earn it by playing 2C for the next 2 years. As in, he won’t be good enough to earn it.

    Sort of undermining him when you leave out the 16 points in 13 playoff games which came after the 1.80 without CMD in the regular season. That also happened and it was evidently a big factor in the contract offered and signed.

    You think Drai’s ceiling is lower than the contract he signed. PC is betting that his ceiling is closer to what he showed against the Ducks than what he showed up to that point. PC’s a gambler. CMD and Drai get along. It’s fun.

  134. frjohnk says:

    stush18:
    frjohnk,

    Can drai oitscore tarasenko playing with klefbom, Larsson and Russell?

    Because tarasenko is was getting fed by a pretty good dcorps.

    The gap between Lehtera and McDavid is massive compared to the small gap between each teams blue liners

  135. stush18 says:

    godot10: Eichel, Matthews, Seguin, and Tavares are almost certainly all getting $10 million plus.

    They’re all going to need to score 110 points a year to equal their contract values!

  136. kgo says:

    godot10,

    True, but only 10% of people are Lefty’s, and I’d guess only 20% of the league shoot right…(it’s 37%) so there might be one or two players in the league like Moto…

    He’s like a left handed sidearm pitcher

  137. frjohnk says:

    Georges: Sort of undermining him when you say he wouldn’t be worth this contract if he had to earn it by playing 2C for the next 2 years. As in, he won’t be good enough to earn it.

    Sort of undermining him when you leave out the 16 points in 13 playoff games which came after the 1.80 without CMD in the regular season. That also happened and it was evidently a big factor in the contract offered and signed.

    Draisaitl played
    252 total minutes during the playoffs.
    23 goals for
    7 goals against

    With McDavid
    166 minutes
    16 goals for
    3 goals against

    Without McDavid
    85 minutes
    7 goals for
    4 goals against

    Draisaitl got most of his points with McDavid during the playoffs. Drai did run a heater for a couple of games away from McDavid. He had 5 points in the 7-1 win against the Ducks where he centered his own line. ( 3 even strength points, 2 PP points)

  138. stush18 says:

    frjohnk,

    Agreed. I was grasping at straws there haha

    Interesting to know though

    Mcdavids career with/without Leon, pts/60 and CF%

    With 2.82 52.4%
    Without 2.72 51.7%

    Leon’s career, with/without mcdavid

    With 2.09 51.4
    Without 2.03 51.7

    Is Leon really struggling away from mcdavid?

  139. frjohnk says:

    stush18:
    frjohnk,

    Agreed. I was grasping at straws there haha

    Interesting to know though

    Mcdavids career with/without Leon, pts/60 and CF%

    With 2.82 52.4%
    Without 2.72 51.7%

    Leon’s career, with/without mcdavid

    With 2.09 51.4
    Without 2.03 51.7

    Is Leon really struggling away from mcdavid?

    Hall is in the “without” equation.

    When Draisaitl is away from McDavid and Hall, and Drai has been the best player on the line, other than a handful of games, the numbers are not what one would expect for a guy that is going to get paid as much he is going to.

  140. VOR says:

    A new study shows why whiskey has more flavor when diluted with water.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-06423-5

  141. stush18 says:

    frjohnk: Hall is in the “without” equation.

    When Draisaitl is away from McDavid and Hall, and Drai has been the best player on the line, other than a handful of games, the numbers are not what one would expect for a guy that is going to get paid as much he is going to.

    Right. Let’s just play him on the fourth and bury him with the worst on the team. Them well know if it’s legit

    Sorry for the snark, but anytime you bring up draisaitls points or possession numbers bets, everyone says “ya but…”

    He’s a good player. He is always going to play with good players. If you can’t see the player Leon is, and will grow into, then I don’t have much to talk about.

    Note that this isn’t directed at you FJOHNK

  142. Professor Q says:

    godot10: Eichel, Matthews, Seguin, and Tavares are almost certainly all getting $10 million plus.

    And I have a feeling that Marner might as well.

  143. Professor Q says:

    godot10: That’s mostly normal.Right-handed people tend to shoot left.Left-handed people tend to shoot right.

    I thought it was that most Right and Left Handed people shoot Left, and the rare Right and Left Handed people shoot Right?

    Which does seem odd to me as I’m Right Handed all the way except for catching (catch with my left hand). I guess I’m Goofy in mostly everything. My cousin is RH but is a mix of LH and RH in various sports.

  144. Jethro Tull says:

    VOR:
    A new study shows why whiskey has more flavor when diluted with water.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-06423-5

    Important to note that is the ACT of splashing h-h-h-high quality H2O in the whisky just before drinking with allows the build up of the ‘taste-o-trons(tm)’. Closer the temperature of the water to the whiskey, the less energy (hence time) needed to enhance the flavour.

    Great paper to show to anybody learning chemistry. Interesting subject matter, maybe too technical, but a good teacher can pull out all sorts of basic stuff as examples from it.

  145. Professor Q says:

    VOR:
    A new study shows why whiskey has more flavor when diluted with water.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-06423-5

    There have been older studies as well. I remember seeing one years ago and it follows the newer beliefs of varying methods to bring out flavour (such as a thicker head in certain beer as opposed to trying to limit the head).

  146. frjohnk says:

    stush18: Right. Let’s just play him on the fourth and bury him with the worst on the team. Them well know if it’s legit

    Sorry for the snark, but anytime you bring up draisaitls points or possession numbers bets, everyone says “ya but…”

    He’s a good player. He is always going to play with good players. If you can’t see the player Leon is, and will grow into, then I don’t have much to talk about.

    Note that this isn’t directed at you FJOHNK

    No worries it’s all good discussion.

    How’s this?

    The numbers away from Hall andMcDavid are not great. And the TOI away is not insignificant.

    BUT can we make the argument that when he was with those two,he was not always a passenger, but at times THE guy driving the line?

    At $8.5M per year, the Oilers believe so.

  147. Pink Socks says:

    frjohnk: Tarasenko played over half his season with Lehtera as his center
    Draisaitl played over half his season with McDavid

    Tarasenko scored two less points than Draisaitl during the season.

    Can Draisaitl outscore Tarasenko without playing with McDavid?

    Age and development may be a factor here as well.

  148. Bag of Pucks says:

    Tons to talk about and not enough time.

    Too busy getting my ass kicked by Metallica.

    RE: RNH on RW. I’ve been lobbying for Nuge to the W for nearly 2 years now, but truly believe if you want to set the player up for success with a position change, that should involve making them as comfortable as possible off the hop in the new role. For that reason, I’m not keen on RNH as a left shot along the right side boards. Board play and dump-in retrieval could be his biggest challenges on the wing and I think you better position the player for success if you move his forehand along the wall.

    The speed of the NHL means the difference between contact and serious contact are fractions of seconds. I really don’t like a play where Nuge is having to pivot around into the boards to get the puck on his stick with a Dman barreling down on him.

    For that reason, much prefer RNH as McDavid’s LW with Strome, Kass or Sleppy on that right side.

    In all honesty, with McDavid and RNH on the same line, you would hope that dump ins are a very small percentage of their sorties. Could see these 2 being give and go savants and really bringing this club around to being a superior rush squad once again.

  149. Georges says:

    frjohnk: Draisaitl played
    252 total minutes during the playoffs.
    23 goals for
    7 goals against

    With McDavid
    166 minutes
    16 goals for
    3 goals against

    Without McDavid
    85 minutes
    7 goals for
    4 goals against

    Draisaitl got most of his points with McDavid during the playoffs.Drai did run a heater for a couple of games away from McDavid. He had 5 points in the 7-1 win against the Ducks where he centered his own line.( 3 even strength points, 2 PP points)

    If this amounts to Drai was still in CMD’s shadow in the playoffs… wow. Very, very undermining.

    Who knows? Maybe I would’ve thrown out these sort of stats before the deal was signed. Now that it’s signed, that stuff serves little purpose. The bet’s been made. If your rooting interest going forward is not for the player but vindication for a position you took on Aug. 18th, I’ll leave you to it. It’s not the kind of fun I like to have.

    As leery as I am of TMac, he said one excellent thing during an interview this past season. He said he would tell Drai that he doesn’t have to be the second best player on the ice; he could go out there and be the best. That’s really believing in a player who plays with CMD. I think the Oilers really believe in Drai. Me too.

  150. Bag of Pucks says:

    Georges,

    Thanks for the great reply yesterday on the ‘river pusher’ definition query.

  151. Pink Socks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: MLB and NFL grew more over the same time on a percentage basis than the NHL.

    That’s percentage, not gross revenue.Gross revenue wouldn’t be close (obv), but even as a percentage Gary was beat.

    There’s a good argument that Gary has under performed:

    This chart’s a little old, but you can see the trend lines showing the percentage grow: http://beyondthescorecard.blogspot.ca/2013/08/major-league-team-revenues.html

    NBA has had a great few last years and is back to beating the NHL too.

    http://beyondthescorecard.blogspot.ca/2013/08/major-league-team-revenues.html

    Good points on all, I can see the argument about Gary under performing in relation to the other leagues. I’m not sure it’s a fair comparison though, because the target markets for each league are all very different in size and in demographics, and in the USA the NHL has the smallest potential base limiting that growth to a certain extent. Basically I’m saying Bettman’s relative Corsi is above the other major pro leagues.

  152. Pink Socks says:

    GMB3:
    Pink Socks,

    When has Drai been a ppg player as a center?

    I’ll work on my analogies.

  153. VOR says:

    Jethro Tull,

    I think I have made it clear that I farm. In this day and age farming is not a full time living unless you have a large amount of land, which I don’t. So I am always looking for ways of diversifying and making more on farm income.

    My latest plan for trying to make a living farming is to open a craft distillery. Distilling spirits is one of those places where science meets agriculture. So I am taking courses and attending workshops, participating in webinars and reading every paper I can find. It is amazing how much basic science I had forgotten.

    I’d never try to do whiskey even though there are a couple of really good craft distilleries here in Alberta doing just that. Making a great whiskey is an extremely expensive business, but also very labor intensive and it takes a long time. I don’t think I have enough years left on this Earth to master whiskey making and then to produce and age a great whiskey. There are so many great whiskey’s and the bar is very high.

    So my plan is designer vodka. It is actually possible to produce a vodka that doesn’t taste like paint thinner. I just haven’t quite mastered it yet. But a lot of it is very basic chemistry and biology and it would be such a great thing to use to teach science in high school. (I actually learned the basics in micro-biology at the University of Alberta).

    Then I read this paper and started wondering if I could increase the amount of amphipathic compounds in rye, barley or wheat and if I could do it in rye or wheat could I produce a vodka with a flavor profile closer to whiskey. And if I could would anybody drink it? Anyway, since the article in Scientific Reports made me really think I thought I would share it here where I know there are quite a number of whiskey drinkers with discerning pallets.

  154. Pink Socks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I disagree.

    Kucherov’s salary allows TBY to be among the best in the NHL for the next 3 years.

    When the time comes to re-up Kucherov, even if he gets $10MM, it doesn’t erase the fact that for 3 years they got one of the best in the NHL on a cheap deal which allowed Yz to load up.

    He wouldn’t trade that back at all.

    Playoffs missed this year. I know I know Stamkos and other circumstances, but why have this salary in place for Kucherov to leave the team among the best in the NHL for 3 years when it could have been for 8 years? It isn’t long term thinking. In fact, going back to the his draft year he probably goes #2 behind Seguin. TBY is going to have a tough time holding on to him in a couple of years.

  155. stush18 says:

    frjohnk,

    FAIR enough.

    I think the slight possibility of an overlay is worth the gamble that Leon’s outperforms the bridge contract and blows apart our salary structure.

  156. Pink Socks says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    So if you bridge Leon, what are you afraid of, that next contract he’d want the 5th highest cap hit instead of the 9th?

    One more WG sorry. Leon being the 5th highest cap in 2 summers vs. the 9th today is bigger than just 4 places and isn’t an equal comparison because Leons $8.5m in 2 summers won’t be #9 in the league. Between today and summer 2019 after this suggested bridge, players that will sign above $8.5m barring catastrophic seasons puts him around the 20th highest cap.

    Tavares
    Bobrovsky
    Doughty
    Karlsson
    Panarin
    Couture
    Seguin
    OEL
    Kucherov
    McDonagh
    Pacioretty
    Matthews
    Eichel

    I put this around 20 for Leon at that point. Long term, it gives Oil cost certainty, and more cap space in years 3-8 of this contract. I’ll take 6 years of more cap for the Oil over 3 years of cap for TBY.

  157. VOR says:

    I have found today’s discussion utterly fascinating. I never had any idea how the entire escrow account was screwing lower paid, older players and that the use of the escalator was making the problem worse. I also had no idea how badly hockey was performing in terms of revenue growth as compared to other sports. I now have a much better an idea of why so many experts think a logout is inevitable in 2020.

    I also found the argument over bridging quite compelling. I guess it comes down to where you want the window to be maximized for winning the Stanley Cup.

    I said some time ago that I thought the correct move was to pay Leon whatever it took to get him signed rather than to try to bridge him. My argument was about syncing the window for winning multiple Stanley Cups. I said then and continue to believe that we have a chance in this coming season to win the Cup. But then I think as McDavid’s contract kicks in it will very difficult to build a roster that can win for the following three to four years – depending how quickly the cap increases. That makes the window for multiple cups in years 5-8 of the Draisaitl contract.

    To me this window starting either in 2021-2022 means that Draisaitl and McDavid will be at the best possible combination of youthful talent and veteran experience to run the table in multiple years. The danger as I saw it in a bridge deal was that it was entirely possible the Oilers aren’t quite good enough right now to win the Cup and that by the time they were Draisaitl, like Subban would be just too expensive to be able to afford the surrounding depth players to be a perennial threat to win it all.

  158. Bag of Pucks says:

    VOR,

    VOR, curious as to why you’d go vodka over craft beer? Certainly the margins should be healthier with spirits, but I’ve heard anecdotally that branding, bottle design and distribution are all tricky and of critical importance in achieving a successful spirits product. Can be difficult to master all of those disciplines off the hop.

    By contrast, craft beer is expected to be more quirky and mom and pop in its approach, but brew quality tends to vary widely. Best tasting brews can get a leg up in that environment. Also a ton of support infrastructure to lean on as well.

    Just a thought. Really interesting to hear how that progresses for you. Sounds like the process itself would be fun.

  159. commonfan29 says:

    While McD and Drai’s big deals will make life harder for the Oil, it’s worth remembering that the deals will also make things a lot tougher for the Leafs too.

    I’m kinda hoping for a season where McD runs away with the Art Ross, but the Eastern media gives Matthews the Hart.

  160. godot10 says:

    commonfan29:
    While McD and Drai’s big deals will make life harder for the Oil, it’s worth remembering that the deals will also make things a lot tougher for the Leafs too.

    I’m kinda hoping for a season where McD runs away with the Art Ross, but the Eastern media gives Matthews the Hart.

    I think your priorities are wrong.
    I am hoping for a season where the Oilers and McDavid/Draisaitl win the Stanley Cup and Matthews wins the Art Ross and the Hart and etc.

    You know like what Crosby did to McDavid this year.

  161. Georges says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Georges,

    Thanks for the great reply yesterday on the ‘river pusher’ definition query.

    It was a great question. Deserves more discussion.

  162. Pink Socks says:

    godot10: I think your priorities are wrong.
    I am hoping for a season where the Oilers and McDavid/Draisaitl win the Stanley Cup and Matthews wins the Art Ross and the Hart andetc.

    You know like what Crosby did to McDavid this year.

    This

  163. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Because the team isn’t any better now.

    You said Yzerman has kept the team more competitive for the next few yrs until kucherovs next raise.

    But they just gave away players because they can’t afford them. They actually got worse. And youhave to sign kucherov to an even bigger contract in two years.

    So you have to hope that within the next two yrs, vasilivsky (so) and sergachev turn the clock enough to help them win the cup, because you’ll be shedding players again and becoming less competitive again once kucherovs next contract kicks in.

    And I’m a fan, but if sergachev is the teams second best dman in 18/19/ I’ll eaty hat. That’s old oilers thinking, and is hopefully not part of the plan.

    Moving Drouin allowed Yz to sign Johnson long term and he got Segechev.

    How you see this as a negative is really weird.

    Also,

    “old oilers thinking”

    No, it comes from staring at Dman stats for the last 3 years.

    The best ones hit the ground running.

    I’m betting he’s among those.

    He might not be.

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    stush18,

    Weird amount of fawning for a team that missed the playoffs this year… Better hope Vasilevsky doesn’t get hurt or they are a bubble team (ducks for cover).

    TBY are the 4th favorite for the Cup in Vegas.

    I have them 2nd.

  165. anjinsan says:

    Guess what, LT: the GM got ransomed for Draisaitl.

    Mr Harvard Chiarelli has bled Oiler assets to keep McDavid in town, to keep that new stadium occupied.

    I cannot tell you how much I wanted and “knew” another dynasty of great hockey was coming to Edmonton. But then the Reinhart trade happened, and we lost Barzal and Carlo. Now I realize Chiarelli was hired with the focus, not on another great run of cups, but to not screw up the McDavid coming, as in $Ka-Ching.

    On well, on to other things.

  166. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: I think its fair to say Bishop is below average in odd number years.In even number years he is quite good

    Bishop’s GSAA/100 shots last 3 years:

    BEN.BISHOP 20142015 0.31
    BEN.BISHOP 20152016 0.57
    BEN.BISHOP 20162017 -0.54

    3 years ago “NHL level goalie”

    2 years ago “starter quality”

    Last year, well below average.

    Meh.

  167. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    Sort of undermining him when you say he wouldn’t be worth this contract if he had to earn it by playing 2C for the next 2 years. As in, he won’t be good enough to earn it.

    What has he done away from Hall and McDavid to deserve the benefit of the doubt?

    Sort of undermining him when you leave out the 16 points in 13 playoff games which came after the 1.80 without CMD in the regular season. That also happened and it was evidently a big factor in the contract offered and signed.

    I’ve been watching players and PDO for 10 years.

    It never fails to surprise when smart people think a 1100 PDO is sustainable despite over a half million points of data that says, “nope”

    You think Drai’s ceiling is lower than the contract he signed. PC is betting that his ceiling is closer to what he showed against the Ducks than what he showed up to that point. PC’s a gambler. CMD and Drai get along. It’s fun.

    That really depends on what your definition of fun is.

    If watching the media and fans turn on Drai in a 2-3 years because he’s “not earning his $8.5MM” is fun, then sure.

    I hope he improves, I really do.

  168. Pink Socks says:

    anjinsan:
    Guess what, LT: the GM got ransomed for Draisaitl.

    Mr Harvard Chiarelli has bled Oiler assets to keep McDavid in town, to keep that new stadium occupied.

    I cannot tell you how much I wanted and “knew” another dynasty of great hockey was coming to Edmonton.But then the Reinhart trade happened, and we lost Barzal and Carlo.Now I realize Chiarelli was hired with the focus, not on another great run of cups, but to not screw up the McDavid coming, as in $Ka-Ching.

    On well, on to other things.

    I honestly can’t tell if this is satire.

    Cups = $ = PC keeping his job.

  169. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18:
    frjohnk,

    Agreed. I was grasping at straws there haha

    Interesting to know though

    Mcdavids career with/without Leon, pts/60 and CF%

    With 2.82 52.4%
    Without 2.72 51.7%

    Leon’s career, with/without mcdavid

    With 2.09 51.4
    Without 2.03 51.7

    Is Leon really struggling away from mcdavid?

    Run those numbers again away from Hall too…..

  170. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    A new study shows why whiskey has more flavor when diluted with water.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-06423-5

    I RT’d that in my twitter TL today.,

    I think pouring whiskey over ice is the best way to add water.

  171. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18: Right. Let’s just play him on the fourth and bury him with the worst on the team. Them well know if it’s legit

    Sorry for the snark, but anytime you bring up draisaitls points or possession numbers bets, everyone says “ya but…”

    He’s a good player. He is always going to play with good players. If you can’t see the player Leon is, and will grow into, then I don’t have much to talk about.

    Note that this isn’t directed at you FJOHNK

    He’s not always going to play with good players.

    He’s played with 2. McDavid (who is beyond amazing) and Hall (who is elite).

    Now there is only one of these on the Oilers and he won’t play with him all the time.

    The early returns are not good.

    I hope they get better, I really do.

  172. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pink Socks: Good points on all, I can see the argument about Gary under performing in relation to the other leagues.I’m not sure it’s a fair comparison though, because the target markets for each league are all very different in size and in demographics, and in the USA the NHL has the smallest potential base limiting that growth to a certain extent.Basically I’m saying Bettman’s relative Corsi is above the other major pro leagues.

    I think that because the NHL started with the worst market share they had the most to gain, but didn’t.

    That’s a fail in my books.

  173. VOR says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    We want to be able to make something we grow ourselves. We can grow hops. Some escaped cultivation and colonized my house. People think it is ivy but it is not. Then it started taking over our lawn.

    On the other hand barley doesn’t grow very well on our land. What my neighbors grow is very poor quality and doesn’t make good malt no matter what we try. So we would have to bring it in from an industry supplier which sort of defeats our attempt to add value to our own crops or those of our neighbors.

    We could use wheat but the protein in wheat causes the mash to be sticky. When you start lautering (which is where you separate the clear liquid wort from the residual grain) the sticky protein makes the separation process very difficult. The more protein the more difficult. We grow some of the highest protein content wheat in Canada on our land.

    Then we come to the fact that there are at least 70 craft beer operations in Alberta. So the market place is pretty crowded. Partly as result of that the margins are less than you might think.

    Lastly, craft beers are differentiated by flavor(s) that are produced in the brewing process. You either need to hire a great brew master or be one yourself. So there is a human resource issue.

  174. Lowetide says:

    anjinsan:
    Guess what, LT: the GM got ransomed for Draisaitl.

    Mr Harvard Chiarelli has bled Oiler assets to keep McDavid in town, to keep that new stadium occupied.

    I cannot tell you how much I wanted and “knew” another dynasty of great hockey was coming to Edmonton.But then the Reinhart trade happened, and we lost Barzal and Carlo.Now I realize Chiarelli was hired with the focus, not on another great run of cups, but to not screw up the McDavid coming, as in $Ka-Ching.

    On well, on to other things.

    I didn’t ever predict a dynasty,because the cap is always going to get in the way. Your point about Reinhart is absolutely true, but Matt Benning helped and we’ll see if he can catch some lightning in a bottle at the draft table.

    I see a lot of Oilers fans drifting away these days, it’s kind of a shame. One Stanley Cup isn’t five, but I’d be thrilled with it. Each fan must follow their own path, and I wish you well.

  175. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    Jethro Tull,

    I think I have made it clear that I farm. In this day and age farming is not a full time living unless you have a large amount of land, which I don’t. So I am always looking for ways of diversifying and making more on farm income.

    My latest plan for trying to make a living farming is to open a craft distillery. Distilling spirits is one of those places where science meets agriculture. So I am taking courses and attending workshops, participating in webinars and reading every paper I can find. It is amazing how much basic science I had forgotten.

    I’d never try to do whiskey even though there are a couple of really good craft distilleries here in Alberta doing just that. Making a great whiskey is an extremely expensive business, but also very labor intensive and it takes a long time. I don’t think I have enough years left on this Earth to master whiskey making and then to produce and age a great whiskey. There are so many great whiskey’s and the bar is very high.

    So my plan is designer vodka. It is actually possible to produce a vodka that doesn’t taste like paint thinner. I just haven’t quite mastered it yet. But a lot of it is very basic chemistry and biology and it would be such a great thing to use to teach science in high school. (I actually learned the basics in micro-biology at the University of Alberta).

    Then I read this paper and started wondering if I could increase the amount of amphipathic compounds in rye, barley or wheat and if I could do it in rye or wheat could I produce a vodka with a flavor profile closer to whiskey. And if I could would anybody drink it? Anyway, since the article in Scientific Reports made me really think I thought I would share it here where I know there are quite a number of whiskey drinkers with discerning pallets.

    People have figured out how to hyper-age whiskey: http://gizmodo.com/how-one-mans-aging-whiskey-in-a-week-not-years-511031078

    Get on it!

  176. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pink Socks: Playoffs missed this year.I know I know Stamkos and other circumstances, but why have this salary in place for Kucherov to leave the team among the best in the NHL for 3 years when it could have been for 8 years?It isn’t long term thinking.In fact, going back to the his draft year he probably goes #2 behind Seguin.TBY is going to have a tough time holding on to him in a couple of years.

    As stated earlier, they are a Cup favorite this year.

    They had an awful start to the year, starting with Stamkos’ injury.

    Without Stamkos, from Feb 1 – the end of the season they were 3rd in the NHL with 44 points in 31 games. (EDM was 12th with 39 in 30)

    Now they get Stamkos back.

    And maybe Sergechev on the 3rd pair.

  177. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pink Socks: One more WG sorry.Leon being the 5th highest cap in 2 summers vs. the 9th today is bigger than just 4 places and isn’t an equal comparison because Leons $8.5m in 2 summers won’t be #9 in the league.Between today and summer 2019 after this suggested bridge, players that will sign above $8.5m barring catastrophic seasons puts him around the 20th highest cap.

    Tavares
    Bobrovsky
    Doughty
    Karlsson
    Panarin
    Couture
    Seguin
    OEL
    Kucherov
    McDonagh
    Pacioretty
    Matthews
    Eichel

    I put this around 20 for Leon at that point.Long term, it gives Oil cost certainty, and more cap space in years 3-8 of this contract.I’ll take 6 years of more cap for the Oil over 3 years of cap for TBY.

    Very fair.

    I think that:

    Eichel
    Karlsson
    Doughty
    Seguin
    Matthews

    Are the only players to get more than Drai though.

  178. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georges,

    I’ve been watching players and PDO for 10 years.

    It never fails to surprise when smart people think a 1100 PDO is sustainable despite over a half million points of data that says, “nope”

    If, after 10 years of fancy stats, we have half a million points of data to tell us that 1100 PDO is unsustainable, the effort put into determining that may have been better spent.

    I don’t think Drai is a coattail-riding flash in the pan who’s going to get run out of town. And, if I’m right, his PDO will consistently be north of 1000 while he’s in town. Subtly different from 1100, I know. But meaningful.

  179. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    I don’t think Drai is a coattail-riding flash in the pan who’s going to get run out of town. And, if I’m right, his PDO will consistently be north of 1000 while he’s in town. Subtly different from 1100, I know. But meaningful.

    The difference between 1100 and “consistently north of 1000” is as deep as the Mariana trench.

    One is reasonable (McDavid can be a 1030 with Talbot) but 1100 is reserved for those running so hot that they buy pizza raw because it will cook when they touch it.

  180. Jethro Tull says:

    VOR,

    Great post. Of course the scots would say nobody has ever mastered making whisky!

    Good luck in your venture. Me and Mrs. Tull make wine from scratch. At the moment we have rhubarb and elderflower, rhubard and black tea, choke cherry and also Saskatoon brewing nicely.

  181. GMB3 says:

    Why is it suddenly a good idea again to give out a contract with the hopes of the player improving enough to validate the size of the contract? Opposed to paying him what he has proven himself to be worth.

    I’ve read posts from a certain section on fans who think Draisaitl has earned a larger contract than Tarasenko because he is a center, even though his best offensive season was spent as a winger.

    I’ve then read posts where people compare Drai and Tarasenkos linemates, and the verbal is that Tarasenko’s impressive numbers whilst carrying a line are a result of being older and more developed. This is an example of why Tarasenko deserves more than Drai imo. Look at the bet Tambo made with RNH. I think this is so easy to understand.

    And god forbid this section of posters don’t go on and on about the 13 game sample size where he ran a ridiculous PDO heater and consider that evidence.

    I guess if the kool aid is made someone needs to drink it.

  182. GMB3 says:

    frjohnk: Tarasenko played over half his season with Lehtera as his center
    Draisaitl played over half his season with McDavid

    Tarasenko scored two less points than Draisaitl during the season.

    Can Draisaitl outscore Tarasenko without playing with McDavid?

    Excellent post

  183. Johnny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I RT’d that in my twitter TL today.,

    I think pouring whiskey over ice is the best way to add water.

    I actually agree with you on this. As for the rest of it, I want to jump through my phone.

  184. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Which team is second in that list according to Vegas odds makers?

    Lowetide,

    I find this bizarre and also wish them well. Sticking around for the Decade only to cut bait and walk away once the team starts winning? Well whatever floats ones boat I guess but it feels like you’re doing it wrong.

  185. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I RT’d that in my twitter TL today.,

    I think pouring whiskey over ice is the best way to add water.

    The science disagrees.

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